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Storm Prediction Center Outlooks - Day 3




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Day 3 Outlook 0730Z Probablistic 0730Z
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 Convective Outlook Discussion - Day 3
SPC AC 190735

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0135 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
   EAST TX...FAR SOUTHEAST OK AND WESTERN AR...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and
   evening from east Texas northeastward into western Arkansas.

   ...Synopsis...
   Shortwave trough over the Four Corners region at the beginning of
   the period is expected to progress northeastward into the central
   Plains while deepening and maturing. Southwesterly winds aloft
   preceding the system will strengthen while overspreading the
   southern/central Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. Surface reflection
   of this system will move quickly northeastward from the TX Panhandle
   into the lower MO Valley. Moisture return ahead of this system will
   likely result in enough instability to support thunderstorms,
   include the potential for a few severe storms (discussed in more
   detail below).

   Farther northwest, a progressive shortwave trough will move through
   the Pacific Northwest during the afternoon/evening. A few lightning
   strikes will be possible across the region, particularly after the
   initial frontal band as temperatures aloft cool and cellular
   convection persists.  

   ...East TX...Far southeast OK...Western AR...
   Moisture return is expected to result in dewpoints in the upper 50s
   to low 60s from the lower TX coast northward through the Ark-La-Tex.
   Daytime heating will be limited by considerable cloudiness,
   tempering the development of much surface-based instability. Current
   guidance suggests SBCAPE values will remain below 500 J/kg.
   Additionally, expected progression of the upper system will result
   in a displacement between the strongest forcing for ascent (across
   eastern KS and MO) and the best low-level moisture/instability. Even
   so, a line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop
   during the afternoon as the Pacific front/dryline associated with
   the system encounters the marginally unstable environment across
   east/northeast TX. Continued thunderstorm development is possible
   farther north through western AR during the evening. 

   Strong wind fields will favor fast-moving storms and the potential
   for a few strong wind gusts, particularly during the late afternoon
   and evening from east TX into western AR where the greatest
   potential for surface-based convection exists. Despite strong
   forcing for ascent, northern extent of the severe threat will be
   limited by meager instability. Farther south, warm temperatures
   aloft will likely keep afternoon and evening convection shallow.

   ..Mosier.. 01/19/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

NWS Storm Prediction Center Day 3 Outlook