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Storm Prediction Center Outlooks - Days 4 - 8

<Day 3 Outlook
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4 - 8 Outlook
D4Mon March 26th 2018 - Tue March 27th 2018 D7Thu March 29th 2018 - Fri March 30th 2018
D5Tue March 27th 2018 - Wed March 28th 2018 D8Fri March 30th 2018 - Sat March 31st 2018
D6Wed March 28th 2018 - Thu March 29th 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)

Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.

PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.

POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center

 Convective Outlook Discussion - Day 4-8
   ACUS48 KWNS 230853
   SPC AC 230853

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0353 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

   Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

   Models, including ensemble members, remain in good agreement through
   at least day 5 (Tuesday) regarding the slow eastward progression of
   positive-tilt upper trough that will move from the Great Basin
   region day 4 (Monday) to the southern High Plains by day 6. It still
   appears that a few strong to severe storms should develop along
   dryline Monday afternoon and evening in association with a
   low-amplitude lead impulse. Additional storms may develop Tuesday
   along a southeast-advancing cold front from OK through north central
   TX and near dryline/cold front intersection over southwest TX.
   Strongest storms may evolve across TX where more instability should
   reside. Activity will spread east into the lower MS Valley region
   where vertical shear will be favorable for organized severe storms,
   but uncertainty remains regarding quality of the thermodynamic

   Storms will develop east through the lower MS Valley and a portion
   of the Southeast States days 6 and 7 in association with the
   slow-moving upper trough. Overall setup with deep-layer winds
   parallel to the front appears favorable for a slow moving squall
   line with heavy rain. While vertical wind profiles will be adequate
   for embedded organized storms, lingering uncertainties regarding
   quality the thermodynamic environment precludes a risk area at this

   ..Dial.. 03/23/2018


NWS Storm Prediction Center Day 4-8 Outlook