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Storm Prediction Center Outlooks - Day 2 (Tomorrow)

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Day 2 Outlook 0700Z 1730Z
Day 2 Outlook - Probabilities 0700Z 1730Z
Day 2 Outlook 0700z

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 Convective Outlook Discussion - Day 2
SPC AC 231713

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1213 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z


   Thunderstorms are possible Saturday primarily across the Ohio Valley
   and along the Pacific Northwest Coast during the day. Other
   thunderstorms might occur late Saturday night over a portion of the
   the southern Plains and early Sunday morning across the northern

   ...Mid-Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valley Regions...
   A deamplifying shortwave trough will traverse the region from
   northwest to southeast throughout the day.  Lift associated with
   this feature, along with isentropic lift along/north of a warm front
   extending from central Missouri through central Tennessee, will
   promote widespread shower/thunderstorm development throughout the
   day.  This activity should spread southeastward toward the
   Appalachians overnight.  A risk for small hail will exist on the
   western extent of this activity (eastern Missouri into Illinois)
   early in the period due to steep (7-8C/km) mid-level lapse rates in
   that area, although organized/widespread severe weather is not

   ...Northwestern U.S....
   Very cold temperatures aloft (-30 to -38C at 500mb) associated with
   a longwave trough over the region will result in very steep lapse
   rates and thermodynamic profiles favoring lightning throughout the
   forecast period.  This risk will be highest along coastal areas from
   northern California northward to southwestern Washington State. 
   This lightning risk may be more diurnally driven across the northern
   Rockies, but will be encouraged by lift associated with a shortwave
   traversing the region during the afternoon.  An isolated strike or
   two cannot be completely ruled out in eastern Oregon and vicinity
   very late in the period.

   ...Southern/Central Plains...
   A cold front is expected to stall very near the Red River Valley
   during the day and remain stationary through the overnight hours. 
   Although not widespread, models suggest potential for isolated
   thunderstorms to develop along and north of this front - likely in
   response to increasing isentropic ascent and a subtle mid-level
   shortwave trough approaching the region toward 09-12Z Sunday.  

   ...Portions of the Northern High Plains...
   Mid-level height falls are expected to overspread the region in
   response to an approaching shortwave ejecting from eastern Montana
   into south-central Canadian provinces.  Cooling temperatures aloft
   will support modest mid-level destabilization and the potential for
   a few lightning strikes from elevated convection migrating
   northeastward across the region during the evening and overnight
   hours (00Z-12Z Sunday).

   ..Cook.. 03/23/2018



NWS Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Outlook