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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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092
FXUS64 KHGX 071732
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1232 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected today and
  Tuesday, mainly focused over areas near and south of I-10.

- High temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 90s inland
  and the upper 80s to lower 90s along the coast through the end
  of the work week. Isolated spots west of I-45 could see highs in
  the upper 90s at times.

- Rain chances increase towards mid-week as tropical moisture
  returns to the area. Locally heavy rainfall with rainfall rates
  of 2-3" per hour is possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

The southern periphery of a mid-level high pressure situated over
northern Texas and Oklahoma will continue expand further into
Southeast Texas today into Tuesday, and mid-level heights are
expected to rise to 593-594 dams by tonight. We also have fairly
dry air along the mid-levels today. As of 11 am, the GOES 19 Total
Precipitable Water Imagery indicated lower surface moisture
amounts compared to yesterday, roughly around 1.9-2.1 inches
across most of Southeast TX. Thus, although there is still plenty
of moisture to work with, the stronger influence of the high
pressure and drier air along the mid-levels will help suppress
shower development for today. Look for isolated showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon, mostly over areas near and south if
I-10 for this afternoon, in particular around the seabreeze
region. Some brief periods of heavy rainfall is possible and
ponding of water along roadways can occur at times. Otherwise,
expect sunny to partly cloudy skies, light winds, and high
temperatures in the lower to mid 90s.

A similar weather pattern is expected on Tuesday, with the
potential for just a little more coverage (20-40% PoPs) as mid-
level moisture increases while vorticity maxes (somewhat weak)
move near and east of Southeast TX. Temperatures will also
increase, with highs expected to range between 94-98 deg F inland
and 90-93 deg F along the coasts. The heat indices will peak
between 105-108 deg F, but some isolated spots could reach 109-110
deg F for a few hours. Make sure to continue to practice heat
safety if you plan to work or spend time outdoors.

A bit more of an active weather pattern looks to set up on
Wednesday as the high pressure shifts into the California region
and a surge of moisture increases our local PWs to 2.1-2.3 inches
south of the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods. For areas along and
south of I-10, the forecast carries scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms while areas north of I-10 continue with isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms. With the amount of
available surface moisture, locally heavy rainfall with rainfall
rates of 2-3" per hour is possible and could lead to ponding of
water along roadways and areas of poor drainage. Increasing cloud
coverage and rain chances will help bring the high temperatures
back into the lower to mid 90s range on Wednesday but will still
feel hot and humid with the increase in low-level moisture.

For the rest of the week and upcoming weekend, isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day as
several disturbances pass through and the high pressure remains
over Southwest CONUS. I guess some of us will have to start
cutting the grass again every 4 days with all this rainfall :/
...but at least it stays green :D

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected through the 18Z cycle. This
afternoon, there is a possibility of isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms among the southern TAFs sites as the sea breeze
moves northward. PROB30s were included for these sites during the
19z to 24z period, with convection possibly starting earlier for
LBX and GLS. Going into the evening and overnight hours, winds
will be calm and VRB. There is a possibility of MVFR cigs/vis for
CXO and LBX during the early morning hours, but current model
confidence is not high enough to include in the TAFs for this
cycle. Models are also in agreement concerning showers and
possible thunderstorms reaching IAH after 19Z tomorrow, warranting
the use of a PROB30 at the end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Light winds and seas of 2 feet or less are expected through the
end of the work week. A bit less coverage in showers and
thunderstorms (10-25%) expected today and Tuesday as high
pressure builds over Southeast TX. Higher shower and storm chances
between 40-70% expected Wednesday into the end of the week as
moisture rises and disturbances move overhead. Locally heavy
rainfall, frequent lightning, strong winds of 20-30 knots are
possible in and around strong storms. Storms can also produce
outflow boundaries containing stronger brief wind gusts.
Conditions will remain favorable for isolated to scattered showers
and storms throughout the weekend.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  96  76  94 /   0  10   0  10
Houston (IAH)  79  95  79  92 /   0  30  10  60
Galveston (GLS)  83  91  83  90 /   0  20  50  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cotto
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion