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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

289
FXUS64 KHGX 132344
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
644 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The heat and humidity will continue through the weekend with
  peak afternoon temperatures rising into the low to mid 90s
  (31-36 Celsius) with peak heat indices near 103-107 (39-42
  Celsius).

- Moderate to high risk of rip currents this weekend, likely
  continuing into portions of next week with elevated high tides.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms we be possible daily
  beginning Sunday afternoon through at least midweek. Locally
  heavy rainfall leading to urban and small stream flooding will
  be possible with any isolated strong storms.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Heat and humidity will continue to be a concern through tomorrow
as afternoon temperatures rise into the low to mid-90s (31-36
Celsius) across much of the region. Moist onshore flow will bring
afternoon dew points into the mid-70s for much of the region, and
then upper 70s along the coast. This will allow for heat indices
to rise into the 103-107 degree range (39-42 Celsius) during peak
heating hours today and Sunday (Noon-4pm). There will be some
uncertainty on these temperatures for Sunday as increasing rain
chances may lead to a reprieve from the heat.

Speaking of the increasing rain chances, we are anticipating
isolated coastal showers and storms to develop during the morning
hours on Sunday - then spreading inland through the afternoon. The
activity tomorrow will largely be dominated by daytime heating and
increasing moisture (PWATs rising to 2.0-2.3"), with exact
locations of where the storms develop dependent on boundary
interactions.

A lull in the activity is expected to begin near sunset then
continue into Sunday night. However, a weak front is expected to
begin pushing in from the north late Sunday night/early Monday
morning bringing our next round of showers and thunderstorms. This
boundary is expected to slowly push into our region during the
day on Monday, then eventually stalling across SE Texas through
much of this upcoming week leading to daily rain chances. PWATs
remain near 2.1-2.4" through the week, so there will be continued
chances of locally heavy rainfall with any of the thunderstorms
that develop. Coverage of the showers and thunderstorms appear
greatest Monday and Tuesday as weak disturbances aloft pass
through the region.

Any thunderstorm the forms will have the potential to produce
localized downpours leading to rain totals of 1-2" with locally
higher amounts of 3-5" daily. If these storms develop over an
area with poor drainage, or training storms develop, then minor
urban and small stream flooding will be possible. WPC has placed
portions of our region in an Excessive Rainfall Outlook through
the next several days:
 - Sunday: Most of SE Texas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) with
   the Piney Woods in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4)
 - Monday: Most of SE Texas in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4)
 - Tuesday: Most of SE Texas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4)

A large upper-level low moving into NE Mexico on Wednesday will
push the stalled boundary northwards out of the area - but high
PWATs and daytime heating will still lead isolated afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. The upper-level low will begin to skirt
up the Texas Coast late Wednesday into the end of the work week
leading to continued rain chances.

The benefit of increased shower and thunderstorm activity Monday
and Tuesday will be a reduction in the heat and humidity with
high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s for most locations with
heat indices peaking in the mid to upper 90s. However,
temperatures begin to rise again Wednesday through the rest of the
week as precipitation chances lower.

Heading to the beach this weekend? Remember to use safe beach
practices like swimming near a life guard. A moderate to high
risk of strong rip currents will continue through much of this
week.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Elevated SE winds of around 10KT and gusts up to 20KT continue at
most TAF sites. Gusts should drop off and winds gradually
decrease later this evening. An MVFR cloud deck moves in from the
east, lowering CIGS across the CWA. Most TAF sites are expected
to experience these MVFR CIGS early tomorrow morning through late
morning, though confidence is lower for sites along and south of
I-10. CIGS are expected to improve to VFR by late morning across
the CWA. A frontal system approaches the region tomorrow,
bringing increased chances for thunderstorms starting tomorrow
afternoon. With this, winds will increase to around 10KT with
occasional gusts around 20KT and veer to the SSE.


MLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Light to moderate onshore flow will persist through at least
Tuesday with seas generally between of 3-6ft. Small craft should
exercise caution this evening into Monday morning as gusts to 25kt
will be possible with seas near 6 to 7ft between 40-60nm offshore.
Winds will lower by the mid-morning hours on Monday with light
onshore flow prevailing through midweek. A passing disturbance
along the Texas Coast will bring a return to moderate to strong
onshore winds Wednesday night through Thursday. This continued
onshore flow will lead to a moderate to high rip current risk
through much of this week. Slightly elevated high tides (around
3.1-3.4ft above MLLW) will also continue.

There will be daily chances of showers and thunderstorms Sunday
through much of this week. Coverage will be highest Monday into
Tuesday as a weak front approaches, then stalls over SE Texas.
Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible with any
thunderstorm that develops.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  92  76  85 /   0  70  80  90
Houston (IAH)  79  92  78  89 /  10  70  60  80
Galveston (GLS)  83  89  83  88 /  20  40  40  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 10 PM CDT this evening
     through Sunday morning for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...MLG
MARINE...Fowler

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion