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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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971
FXUS64 KHGX 301911
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
111 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold Weather Advisories for tonight and (Hard) Freeze Watches
  for Saturday night have been posted.

- Hazardous marine conditions through most of the weekend with
  elevated winds/seas along with low water levels.

- A gradual warm up early next week along with some rain chances
  returning to the forecast by Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1201 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Another day, another 1040+ mb surface high pressure system surging
south down the plains. The steepening gradient as the high builds
south is bringing gusty, chilly, northerly winds. The resulting
CAA underneath a subtropical Pacific fed cloud deck aloft has
brought a relatively gray (with some filtered sun) and chilly day.
Midday temperatures are still in the 40s in many locations,
though we suspect most locations to at least attempt to breach the
50 degree mark. The high will continue building southward,
sending a reinforcing shot of arctic air into the region. One
could call this a good old fashion blue norther. Winds should
initially decrease this evening, before increasing again late
overnight as temperatures drop into the 20s and 30s. A cold
weather advisory has been issued during the morning hours on
Saturday for much of the region due to the potential for 15 to 25
degree wind chills (closer to 15 northern counties, closer to 25
southern counties).

Saturday is expected to be sunnier. But don`t let the bright Texas
sunshine fool you. Afternoon temperatures are only expected to
warm into the 40s. And with high pressure, clear skies, and dry
air in place, expect efficient radiational cooling Saturday
night. There is a very high risk for another hard freeze for areas
away from the coast and outside Houston`s urban heat island
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Couldn`t rule out some rural
cold spots dropping into the teens! But bright sunshine should
allow for a decent temperature recovery by afternoon, with most
spots reaching the low 50s.

Our mid/upper pattern has been trough dominate for the last couple
of weeks. But modest ridging will take the stage on Monday and
Tuesday. In addition, southeast flow will be introduced in the
low-levels, ushering in a milder and more moist environment. I
think we`ll have one more chilly morning on Monday. But Monday and
Tuesday afternoon could both make a run for the 70 degree mark
(more likely on Tuesday). Overnight lows will also warm into the
40s and 50s. A tad warmer than normal for a change! We`ll also
transition into a spilt flow pattern, featuring a strengthening
subtropical jet over Texas and northern Mexico. The aforementioned
ridging will be short-lived, with the polar jet dipping southward
again, bringing a nice lobe of vorticity and lift down into
Texas on Tuesday into Wednesday. With moist SE low-level flow and
a subtropical jet in place, expect an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday into early Wednesday. The
best chance of showers and storms will be ahead of a southward
progressing cold front. This time, the air behind the front does
not appear to be THAT cold. Below average? Sure. But a widespread
freeze isn`t in the forecast at this time.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 646 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

North to northwest winds strengthen during the daytime, then ease
down slightly tonight. VFR conditions prevailing.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1201 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Strong northerly winds, choppy to rough bay waters, and building
Gulf seas will continue through Saturday. Winds in the bays and
the very nearshore Gulf should decrease this afternoon and evening,
before increasing again late tonight into tomorrow morning. Cold
wind chills in the 20s can be expected along the coast by tomorrow
morning. Seas offshore should generally be 6-8 feet through
Saturday. However, seas may occasionally approach 10 feet at
times, especially farther offshore. Winds decrease and seas
diminish late Saturday into Sunday. Expect those winds to veer
east then southeast on Sunday, remaining southeast through
Tuesday. This will push higher dew points northward towards the
recently chilled Upper Texas Waters. We`ll have to monitor this
for potential patchy sea fog Monday night through Tuesday night.
However, dew points may not become high enough for fog. But it`s
still worth monitoring. A cold front will bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday into Wednesday. Gusty
northerly winds are likely in the front`s wake.

Be advised that low water levels will continue through the
weekend and possibly into Monday. Hazardous marine navigation in
shallower areas during low tide are likely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  28  42  23  54 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  34  45  25  53 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  38  46  34  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Saturday for TXZ163-
     164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338.

     Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
     TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>237-300.

GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Saturday for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Saturday for GMZ350-355-370-
     375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion