Skip to main content.

National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

Related quick links> 5 Day Forecast, Local Advisories, Drought Monitor, UV Forecast, Air Quality Forecast 
405
FXUS64 KHGX 070509
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1209 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected throughout
  the week, mainly focused over areas near and south of I-10.

- High temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 90s inland
  and the upper 80s to lower 90s along the coast through the end
  of the work week. Isolated spots west of I-45 could see highs in
  the upper 90s at times.

-Rain chances increase towards mid-week as tropical moisture
 returns to the area


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

We will start to see the wet pattern transition to a slightly
drier one as we kick off the work-week and mid-level ridging
shifts southward. PWAT values for today will be around 1.8-2.1"
(around the 75-90th percentile), so expecting to see convection
take advantage of the lingering moisture this afternoon with help
from the sea breeze. Showers and storms should have less coverage
than the last few days, with most of the activity occurring along
the coastal counties. Expect activity to decrease with the loss of
daytime heating

The aforementioned high pressure will continue to transition
southward into Oklahoma Tuesday, building further into Southeast
Texas. Consequently, moisture will decrease again slightly as
subsident air becomes more prevalent. PWAT values will range from
1.7-2.0 (average to around 90th percentile). This subsident air
will keep chances of showers and thunderstorms on the lower side.
A few shallow showers and storms could form along the sea breeze
during the afternoon.

Models continue to show moisture increasing again going into
Wednesday as more tropical moisture filters into the area. PWAT
values will climb back to around 2.2" (just above 90th
percentile). Model soundings show a pretty saturated profile with
light winds for Wednesday, so could see some of these showers and
storms produce heavy rainfall. We will see this pattern of daily
showers and storms continue through the end of the week as a mid-
upper level disturbance moves across the NW Gulf and approaches SE
Texas.

Bailey

&&


.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Winds continue to be near calm through the overnight hrs. This
increases the probability of BR in low lying terminals, like CXO,
bringing conditions down to TEMPO MVFR/IFR through sunrise. UTS
having VRB winds still brings the chance for BR, with MVFR-IFR
conditions not expected. The sea breezes arrival does bring a low
chance for TS/SH along the coastal terminals of LBX/GLS, but
timing and coverage lack consensus, so have continued with
PROB30. Once the sun comes up VFR conditions are expected with a
SSE 5-10kt breeze prevailing outside of any afternoon convection.

CMW

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Light winds and seas of 2 feet or less are expected over the next
several days. A drier airmass is expected over the next couple of
days, which will result in less coverage for showers and
thunderstorms. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase
towards the middle of the week and continue into the latter part
of the week as tropical moisture returns and a mid-upper level
disturbance moves through.

Bailey

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  95  77  95  76 /  10  10  10   0
Houston (IAH)  94  79  95  79 /  20   0  30  10
Galveston (GLS)  91  83  91  83 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...CMW
MARINE...Bailey

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion