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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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969
FXUS64 KHGX 171809
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1209 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers are making their way into the area overnight,
  and will continue into Wednesday. Isolated lightning strikes can
  also be expected, and the strongest of the day`s rains closer to
  the coast may become locally heavy, but flooding rains are not
  anticipated.

- A cold front on Thursday will very briefly pull back warm
  weather to more seasonably cool and dry conditions on Friday.

- The cooler weather will quickly exit however, as a very warm
  pattern is expected this weekend into early next week. Though
  the most likely scenario results in temperatures a little below
  record values, a warmer outcome would begin to put daily high
  temperature records under threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1124 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Well, we had a short little visit from wintry cold, then winds
have flipped back around to onshore flow, making things warmer but
also very much into a more familiar type of winter around here -
warm and gloomy, as clouds...and now showers are being seen across
much of the area along with patchy fog.

Look for those showers to continue through much of the day
Wednesday, especially closer to the coast. An upper trough will be
taking its time to make its way through the region, and though
rain generally won`t be terribly heavy with guidance generally
indicating less than half an inch of rain, we can expect a good
amount of coverage of mostly lighter showers. Now, with that said,
precipitable water is increasing to 125-150 percent of normal per
satellite PWAT estimates along with the influx of these showers,
so we could see the strongest showers put down some locally heavy
rain and some isolated lightning strikes. On top of the rain,
patchy fog will also look to hang around in this soupy
environment.

By the time the upper shortwave trough makes it out, it`ll be time
to get ready for our next cold front! I`m not anticipating much in
the way of rain here, as the most significant moisture looks to be
tied to the upper trough that just exited the region. I`ve got
some slight chance PoPs for light showers early on Thursday, but
otherwise keep the forecast dry. The main impact from this front
will be a whopping one (1) day with more seasonable temperatures
and a much drier airmass.

After that brief dip back down closer to average for mid to late-
December, ridging builds stronger over the Southern tier of the
United States, and will pretty much dominate the rest of the
forecast period (and probably beyond? We`ve got time to talk about
that later). The big upshot here is that we have several days of
above average warmth headed our way, and depending on just how
strongly the ridging builds in, some record highs may eventually
come under fire. Look for widespread highs in the upper 70s to
even around 80 degrees in the hotspots as early as Saturday, and
continuing right on through the end of the forecast period.

For now, I`m hewing pretty closely to NBM as it seems to have a
good handle on the qualitative trend, and without a lot of
confidence in just how strong the ridge ultimately will be, it is
probably a really good place to start. However, with record highs
for this time of year also mostly in the low 80s, it`s worth
exploring the higher end of the probability distribution just to
see what it would take to start looking at explicit record heat in
the forecast. And, uh...it turns out it doesn`t take a lot! Step
things up to just the 75th percentile for high temps, and we get
uncomfortably close to records on Saturday, and right there
amongst them on Sunday. So...while not necessarily the most likely
outcome right now, clear record heat is very much a plausible
thing we could be looking at sometime this weekend into early next
week. For those who would rather not welcome Santa with record
highs, the forecast has been pretty stable, with not much of an
upward trend. Granted, past performance does not guarantee future
results, but if you`re a fan of it being cooler, you`re just gonna
have to take what you can get right now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1207 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Little overall change is expected today as IFR/LIFR ceilings and
visibilities persist across SE Texas, including IAH/HOU. Periods of
light precipitation will continue due to a nearby coastal low and
boundary, though only isolated to scattered showers are expected at
the terminals and thunderstorm chances remain very low (

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion