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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

093
FXUS64 KHGX 101142
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
642 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mother`s Day Sunday will remain mostly dry before the early
  afternoon as another round of severe thunderstorms is expected
  to emerge southward from Central Texas through the evening and
  overnight.

- Some isolated severe thunderstorms could form ahead of the main
  line of thunderstorms, and both rounds of storms will carry the
  threat of damaging winds and large hail.

- Dry and seasonable conditions are expected through the following
  workweek with a gradual warm-up by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Weather conditions in the next 24-48 hours will be the most
active in the forecast period across southeast Texas. This is due
to a swiftly-moving embedded trough that is finishing emergence
from the Intermountain West into the Southern Great Plains this
morning. Attendant to this troughing is the frontal boundary
driving our next chance of severe weather arriving later today.
The favorable atmospheric environment ahead of this boundary
consists/will consist of elevated mid-level lapse rates of 7-7.5
C/km and CAPE values in excess of 2500+ J/kg, while bulk shear of
30+ kts will also aid updraft separation for large hail production
(especially with any isolated supercells that could form in the
evening). The main line of strong to severe thunderstorms will
begin to arrive closer to the evening twilight hours across Piney
Woods zones, reaching the I-10 corridor before midnight. Damaging
winds will become a more predominant threat overnight as the line
of storms congeals and reaches the Upper Texas shoreline.

By the dawn hours of Monday morning, the storms and frontal
boundary will be offshore with ensuing post-frontal conditions
elsewhere, including some fairly seasonable temperature
maximums/minimums in the low-to-mid 80s/upper 60s respectively.
Surface northerly winds will continue later into Tuesday before
veering back as the surface ridge axis shifts to our east towards
the lower Mississippi River Valley. By the end of the next
workweek, the 70-degree isodrosotherm makes its return with long-
range guidance very gradually re-introducing some rain chances
into next weekend. By then, some temperature maximums could reach
the 90-degree mark.

Cassel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Mix of IFR to MVFR conditions this morning across most of the SE
Texas region. Some patchy fog did develop during the overnight to
early morning period, however, winds remained at 5-10 KTS for many
sites and limited fog development for many locations. Expect
cloud decks to gradually lift and scatter out after 14-15Z,
leading to mostly VFR conditions for much of the afternoon and
evening. S winds are expected to veer SE today and range between
08-14 KTS.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead and along a cold
front, progged to push through SE Texas tonight into Monday
morning. Some storms may become strong to severe, capable of
producing strong VRB winds and hail. Cigs and Vis will lower as
heavy rainfall pushes through. Llvl turbulence and wind shear can
also be expected in and around the shower and thunderstorm
activity. In the wake of the front, winds will become N-NE at
around 10 KTS.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

The next 24-48 hours will be the most eventful across marine zones
due to frontal passage beginning just before midnight on Sunday.
A line of strong thunderstorms (some still severe) will emerge
offshore, producing some moderate downdraft winds. After the
storms abate in the dawning hours on Monday, post-frontal
northerly winds will remain through the rest of the day before
veering back onshore by Wednesday through the rest of the drier
and milder workweek ahead. All post-frontal winds are expected to
remain below the threshold requiring issuance of a Small Craft
Advisory at this time.

Cassel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  88  67  79  64 /   0  80  10   0
Houston (IAH)  88  70  83  68 /  10  70  20  10
Galveston (GLS)  82  75  83  72 /   0  40  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cassel
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...Cassel

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion