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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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059
FXUS64 KHGX 082319
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
619 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing heat risk is forecast as the week progresses.

- High risk of rip currents will persist through tonight, with
  risk levels fluctuating between moderate and high through the
  week.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storm chances, mostly during
  the afternoon hours, will continue this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

A subtropical jet streak and associated enhanced mid/upper-level
moisture remains over the area but will continue to weaken/push
eastward as subtropical ridging builds westward from the Gulf.
Earlier light rain with this feature has dissipated, though some
patches of light rain/sprinkles may still occur along the coast
this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, isolated to widely
scattered showers and storms will continue to develop over inland
areas, with the relatively highest chances in the Brazos Valley.
Activity will diminish this evening. Subtropical ridging will be
centered over Southeast Texas through the week. This will prevent
widespread convection, but still expect isolated to scattered
showers and storms to develop each afternoon with daytime heating,
onshore flow, and the sea breeze. Highs will mainly be in the
lower 90s. Taking into account the typical high bias of NBM dew
points, there will only be a low chance of heat indices reaching
heat advisory criteria. But heat will certainly still be a concern
for those not acclimated to it. Towards the end of the period,
the ridge may start to weaken as troughing amplifies over portions
of the central and eastern CONUS. This may result in an increase
in convective coverage starting around Sunday with some frontal
boundaries stalling north of our area, but details remain
uncertain at this time.

JDavis

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 532 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Sparse showers will taper off this evening with winds becoming
light and variable overnight. MVFR CIGS/Decks fill in again
overnight into the early morning hours of Tuesday. Could see some
isolated, brief instances of IFR CIGs during this early morning
period as well. Otherwise FLs will return to VFR levels by Tuesday
afternoon as south/southeast winds strengthen. Some sparse, light
showers could develop along the sea breeze during the late
afternoon. Included mentions of showers for areas south of I-10
where confidence is greater, though coverage will likely be
sparse, much like today. Showers taper off in the evening with
winds becoming light/variable again Tuesday night.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Southerly to southeasterly winds will persist for the week, with
winds dipping in and out of small craft exercise caution
criteria. Winds this afternoon and tonight will be right around
14-15 kts, but will not include caution flags at this time.
Caution flags may be needed towards the middle of the week. Isolated
showers and storms are still possible but chances will decrease
slightly as the week goes on.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  91  75  91 /   0  10   0  20
Houston (IAH)  76  91  77  91 /  10  20  10  30
Galveston (GLS)  82  88  82  88 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDavis
AVIATION...03
MARINE...JDavis

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion