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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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601
FXUS64 KHGX 112304
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
604 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Scattered, diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will
   remain in the forecast for the next several days.

 - Diurnal = Afternoon showers/storms inland & overnight/morning
   showers/storms over the Gulf and potentially at the coast.

-  High temperatures will generally be in the mid / upper 90s inland
   and the upper 80s to lower 90s along the coast. Near Heat
   Advisory criteria in our western (especially southwestern
   zones).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

There are some subtle differences between today`s atmosphere and
yesterday`s atmosphere. At first glance, it looks the same. We
still have our broad, discombobulated disturbance stretching from
the Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle, w/ 2"+ PWATs reigning
supreme over most of the CWA. However, the disturbance has
basically split into two separate ML vort maxes. One is situated
near the FL Panhandle while the other one lurks off the Texas
Coast. Though PWATs are high across our region, the ML (700-500MB)
offshore disturbance appears to be translating somewhat down to
the lower levels and redirecting moisture transport at least down
to 850 MB. Yesterday, our 850MB moisture transport showed a clear
vector pointing from the Gulf, indicating moisture pushing into
southeast Texas. But today, those vectors are pointing west. So
perhaps the CAMs aren`t THAT crazy in thinking that there won`t be
much afternoon activity on the radar. But considering the PWATs,
diurnal/mesoscale forcing, and the recent lackluster CAM
performance, we are gonna hedge with 40-60 PoPs in our
southeastern-most areas and 15-30 PoPs most elsewhere. Highs are
expected to be 90s for most areas today.

A mid/upper SW CONUS ridge will push eastward, moving over the
Lone Star State this weekend. This will make the atmosphere more
suppressive but shouldn`t eliminate shower/thunderstorm chances,
especially in our southern and coastal counties. Temperatures are
looking a little hotter, w/ heat index values getting suspiciously
close to advisory criteria in our western counties and possible
in our urban areas as well. For now, we are holding off on a heat
advisory since dew points are expected to sufficiently mix
downward. But it`s something to keep an eye on.

The ridge pushes farther east next week, resulting in a deep,
onshore LL flow regime. This pattern will tend to keep PWATs
elevated (or at least a little above normal). Diurnally driven
forces could easily suffice for at least isolated daily
convection. But there may also be subtle disturbance embedded in
the LL/ML flow (sfc-500MB) that could occasionally add lift and
enhance diurnal convection this week. One may hear "LL
disturbances coming from the Gulf" and wonder if there are
tropical shenanigans afoot. At this time, there are not strong
signals for development. The National Hurricane Center is not
expecting any tropical development over the next 7 days. But given
the time of year, it`s always worth keeping daily tabs on the
tropics just in case. Tis the season!

Self


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Showers/storms should diminish over the next hour or two as daytime
heating ceases. Winds relax and become light this evening. Cloud
decks form around 1500-2000ft overnight, and could briefly fill in
to produce MVFR CIGS early Saturday morning (potentially to IFR
FLs in spots). Isolated patchy fog will also be possible in spots
during the early morning, mainly in fog prone locations like
KCXO. CIGs/Fog should clear around or by the late morning hours.
Showers are also expected to develop over the coast Saturday
morning. Convection could slowly shift inland during the
afternoon, though overall rain chances/coverage are expected to be
lower due to the building ridge aloft. Any convection that does
develop should tapper off into Saturday evening.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Generally light to moderate onshore flow, 2-4 ft Gulf seas, and a
daily risk of showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
next several days. Winds offshore could be gusty at times
overnight and into the morning hours, possibly gusting over 20
knots at times. The best chance of showers and thunderstorms will
occur during the overnight and morning hours offshore, and during
the late morning and early afternoon hours in the bays. Locally
strong winds and a waterspout or two cannot be ruled out.

Some of the guidance is suggesting a long easterly fetch
developing during the second half of next week. This could result
in an increase in seas. For now, we are showing mostly 3-5 ft Gulf
seas by week`s end.

Self

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  99  76  98 /  10   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)  78  96  78  94 /   0  20   0  30
Galveston (GLS)  84  91  84  91 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion