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614
FXUS64 KHGX 061723
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High rainfall rates today will result in minor flooding of poor
  drainage areas as well as a risk for isolated to scattered flash
  flooding.

- Look for increasing winds/seas/rip current risk along the coast through
  Monday.

- Decreased rain chances and increasing heat risk are expected
  through the coming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Scattered to numerous showers with a few thunderstorms are
currently developing with daytime heating and onshore low-level
flow, downstream of an upper low over the Texas Panhandle. There`s
been little change in the tropical air mass over the area with
saturated profiles, PWATs of 2-2.2", and high freezing levels.
This will once again be favorable for efficient/high rainfall
rates of 2-3" or more per hour. 500mb flow around 25-30kts will
keep cells moving, and there isn`t any particular focusing
mechanism, but uni-directional 850-500mb flow may allow localized
training. 12z HREF guidance continues to indicate potential for
localized 3-4"+ amounts. This combined with recent heavy
rainfall/lower flash flood guidance will result in the potential
for street flooding and rises on streams and bayous, along with
isolated to widely scattered flash flooding. A level 2 out of 4
(slight risk) of excessive rainfall remains in effect. Activity
should diminish this evening, though a few isolated showers may
develop overnight given the moist air mass.

By Sunday the upper low will open up into a shortwave trough and
lift northeastward towards Kansas and Missouri. An upper-level
jet streak will remain across southeast Texas, with a mid-level
shear axis getting left behind as well. PWATs will remain near 2
inches with high low-level moisture, but some drier air aloft
will move in as well. A decrease in coverage of showers and storms
is expected, more in the isolated to scattered range. Some
isolated heavy rainfall rates will remain possible with any
storms. Any stronger storms that do get going would also have a
bit more potential for gusty winds than previous days due to the
dry air aloft/DCAPE and an uptick in mid-level lapse rates.

Mid-level ridging builds over the south-central CONUS and western
Gulf Monday through the rest of the week. This ridging combined
with drier air aloft will result in a decrease in coverage of
diurnal convection. However, with continued hot and humid
conditions, onshore flow, and the sea breeze, rain chances will
not go to zero. Some adjustments to PoPs will probably occur as
we get closer. Heat indices will be mainly in the 100 to 107
range, though a few spots may be near 108 by the end of the week.
Heat Risk will mostly be in the "moderate" category, though later
in the week a few patches of Heat Risk in the "major" category
begin to show up.

JDavis

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 516 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A mixed bag of ceilings early this morning ranging from LIFR to
VFR. Ceilings are expected to remain at or below MVFR through the
early to mid-morning hours before returning to VFR by the late
morning/early afternoon. Main aviation impact for the day beyond
ceilings will be timing of scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Latest high-resolution model guidance is pointing
towards activity along the coast gradually increasing in coverage
later this morning, then coverage vastly expanding going into the
late morning and early afternoon. Decreased ceilings/visibilities
expected in heavy downpours. The timing of the TEMPOs is the
highest confidence window for showers/storms, but it`s entirely
possible for these conditions to occur a couple of hours before or
after this timeframe.

Shower/storm coverage decreases this evening, but so do ceilings
as widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings are anticipated once again
going into Sunday morning. Isolated to scattered showers/storms
are expected to develop again beginning Sunday morning.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Persistent onshore flow continues for the coastal waters for the
weekend and much of next week. Winds will remain southeasterly at
around 10 to 15 knots but will increase to 15 to 20 knots late
tonight into early tomorrow. Small craft exercise caution flags
have been issued for tonight into Sunday afternoon, and will
likely be needed for Sunday night as well. Seas will be around 2
to 4 ft, as high as 5 ft in the far offshore waters. Isolated
showers and storms will remain possible at times, with the
relatively highest chances near the bays today.

JDavis

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  87  76  90 /  10  30   0  20
Houston (IAH)  76  88  78  90 /  30  30  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  82  88  82  88 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 10 PM CDT this evening
     through Sunday afternoon for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDavis
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...JDavis

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion