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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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274
FXUS64 KHGX 111748
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1248 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Waves continue to subside today, however, a risk of rip
  currents remains through the week.

- Warm and dry today, SE winds of 10-15 mph decrease by this
  evening.

- Gradual warming trend into next week with isolated rain chances
  daily.

- Cold front on the horizon... generally around Friday-Saturday.
  Cooler fall temps and higher rain chances possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a dry airmass in place at low-
mid levels, and visible imagery shows mostly clear skies. Surface
analysis reveals a high pressure situated generally to our east (over
the TX/LA border), and SE flow dominating for our area. Mid-
upper level ridging continues to anchor over SE TX, allowing for
above normal temps and low humidity. Over the course of the day, a
subtle tightening of the surface pressure gradient is expected as
the surface high builds in. Additionally, the dry airmass at low-
mid levels + daytime heating should slightly steepen low-level
lapse rates and allow for vertical mixing. These two factors
combined will increase wind speeds over the area, especially west
of I-45. Expect winds increasing to around 10-15 mph, with gusts
up to 20 mph possible through this afternoon. Winds decrease by
the evening, as daytime heating is lost.

Apologies to those of you who have been enjoying the low humidity
the past several days... a pattern change is expected tomorrow as
a surface boundary approaches, moving N/NE over the Gulf. A plume
of Gulf moisture creeps into our region as early as tomorrow
morning, causing an increase in humidity. PWs show a high
probability of exceeding 2 inches, which is above normal for this
time of year (if you`re curious, normal PWs for mid October are
around 1.4 inches). The mid-upper level ridging looks to stick
around, which limits the potential for precip tomorrow. However,
CAMs show a slight increase in sfc CAPE over our area as that
surface boundary heads north. There will be plenty of moisture
available, and there should be just enough lift to generate some
showers tomorrow afternoon. The CAMs are starting to pick up on
this, and there is even a low-end chance for some thunder. This
pattern of warm and humid w/ chances for showers in the afternoon
continues through the work week.

Now for the exciting part... an update on next weekend`s cold
front! Models are converging on the idea of a cold front moving in
from the NW sometime on Friday/Friday evening. Ensembles and most
deterministic models are sold on the idea, ushering in cooler and
drier air. There is still uncertainty regarding the strength of
this front. Some models show lovely fall temps, with highs
dipping into the 60s and 70s. The ECMWF looks to be the odd one
out, with high temps remaining in the 80s. There is agreeance that
dry air will move in from the NW this weekend, so at the very
least, humidity would decrease.

MLG

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail for the remainder of the afternoon and
evening. SE winds should increase to 10-15kt then diminish after
sunset. With a slow increase in llvl moisture tonight I wouldn`t be
surprised if we see some patchy late night and morning fog around
the usual terminals (CXO/LBX/SGR)...and maybe some intermittent
2500ft cigs elsewhere. Heading into late morning and afternoon hours
on Monday, there should be enough moisture in place to begin seeing
some scattered shower development and have included some PROB30`s
for some locations.

47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

There is a moderate risk of rip currents today, with waves of 2-3
ft and SE winds at 10-15 kts. Rip current risk increases tomorrow
as onshore flow persists and waves increase to the 4-5 ft range.
By mid week, waves subside, though a moderate risk for rip
currents remains through the work week. A cold front is forecast
for next weekend, and with it, cooler and drier air is expected
over the Gulf waters. The strength of this front is still
uncertain. If it ends up being a stronger front, winds could
significantly increase over the Gulf waters due to the temperature
gradient between the warm Gulf waters and the cool air. General
timing would be a FROPA on Friday/Friday evening. Again, the
strength of this front is still uncertain, but this will be
something to look out for this weekend.

MLG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  69  93  74  94 /   0  30  10  50
Houston (IAH)  72  91  77  92 /   0  30  10  60
Galveston (GLS)  79  86  81  86 /   0  40  30  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MLG
AVIATION...47
MARINE...MLG

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion