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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

637
FXUS64 KHGX 260415
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1115 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Few storms may clip portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods
  area early today... cannot fully rule out a stronger storm or
  two.

- Low but non-zero chance of a strong to severe storm this
  afternoon and evening.

- Above normal temperatures in the 80s/mid 90s and isolated daily
  rain chances continue through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Much like yesterday, we`re once again keeping a close eye on ongoing
convection over north-central/northeast Texas early this morning.
Outflow from these storms has the potential to once again clip the
northern zones of our CWA early this morning. Guidance still wants
these storms to peter our before reaching us... though given how one
storm managed to hold together and reach Houston county yesterday
morning, I would be skeptical putting complete trust into the
deterministic solutions of the CAMs. These CAMs are also showing
sparse coverage in the afternoon, and while I don`t doubt that the
afternoon should likely be largely quiet for most of the area, I
still don`t want to fully exclude the possibility of a stronger
storm or two. Again, the environment should be primed with SFC CAPE
around 1700-3500 J/KG and 6km shear around 35-40 knots. Steep
midlevel lapse rates of 7.5-8.5 DegC/km are progged for the
afternoon, suggesting the potential for large hail. We still have
strong capping around 850mb, even a tad stronger than that of
yesterday. Though once again, if a storm can mange to pull itself
together, then it could be fairly potent, thus we`ll continue to
monitor the severe weather threat closely.

For next week, a shortwave trough is still expected to fill
northeast across the Plains, sending a cold front towards SE Texas.
This front should slow and stall around the Brazos Valley/Piney
Woods, though some isolated showers and storms are still in play for
our northern zones. A subtropical mid-level high then builds in from
the south on Tuesday, establishing more zonal flow aloft and
allowing for another series of shortwaves and impulses to move over
SE Texas. Expect rising rain chances through late next week. Around
Friday, another mid/upper level shortwave trough will move through
Texas, pushing a more robust cold front through the area. Should see
more widespread showers and storms throughout the FROPA. Breezy
conditions set in on Saturday as cooler & drier air fill in behind
the front.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

MVFR-IFR CIGs are anticipated to build in from the coast
tonight. Fog and lower CIGs to LIFR levels may also develop in
spots, particularly in areas closer to the coastline early Sunday
morning. During the overnight hours, we`ll have to watch for
some possible showers and storms to the north/northeast of KUTS
due to outflow coming from northeast Texas. CIGs should slowly
scatter and lift out Sunday morning through the afternoon with VFR
conditions prevailing thereafter. MVFR-IFR conditions fill back in
Sunday night.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue through the
next several days. Elevated water levels around 2.5 to 3.0 feet
above MLLW are still expected at each high tide cycle through
early next week. A slight increase in winds and seas are expected
beginning around Tuesday next week. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day with higher rain chances
Wednesday though the end of the next work week. A modest cold
front could bring moderate to strong offshore winds Friday night
into next weekend.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  72  90  73  91 /  20  20   0  20
Houston (IAH)  74  90  74  90 /  10  10   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  74  83  75  84 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...03
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion