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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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572
FXUS64 KHGX 202350
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
650 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Offshore areas experiencing hazardous winds/seas and scattered
  showers/storms today. Small Craft Advisory in effect in the
  offshore Gulf through tonight.

- Warm and dry conditions expected through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1138 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Mid/upper ridging will continue to rule the weather across Texas,
keeping conditions dry and generally warmer than normal. We do
have a sfc trough in the Gulf, helping to enhance Gulf winds and
seas. We are also noticing some showers and thunderstorms offshore
as well. These conditions should taper as the system pushes into
S TX and MX over the next day or two. None of the eventful weather
offshore is expected to push inland (though we couldn`t rule out a
few showers reaching Matagorda Bay later today).

Typical late October afternoon temperatures average in the upper
70s to around 80, with overnight lows in the 50s to low 60s. We
may end up averaging close to normal for overnight lows through
early next week, especially away from the urban heat island. But
daytime highs should average in the low/mid 80s, with a few hot
spots making a run for the upper 80s on some days. At least
humidity should remain low, with dry conditions reining supreme.

Any pattern changes on the horizon? Long range ensembles suggest
an increasingly more robust subtropical jet by the end of October
or beginning of November. This would tend to shift the pattern in
a wetter direction. It is awfully dry out there, especially in our
coastal zones. So a more El Nino-like pattern with an active
subtropical jet could end up being welcomed news. The 8-14 day
outlook from the Climate Prediction Center is leaning towards a
higher chance of wetter than normal conditions. Time will tell.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

VFR conditions prevail across the region for this TAF cycle. Winds
become LGT and VRB tonight, except along the coast where they remain
~10 kts out of the NE. A brief period of low-end VFR CIGS around
LBX/GLS develops tonight through late Wednesday morning. Afterwards,
the region sees NE winds picking back up between 5-10 kts and mid-
upper level clouds get cleared out from the NE throughout the day.
Winds return to LGT and VRB overnight.

BSM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1138 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

A trough in the Gulf will enhance winds and seas in our Gulf
waters through tonight, with hazardous offshore seas possibly
lingering into Wednesday morning. There is a Small Craft Advisory
in effect for our offshore zones through tonight, while Caution
Flags have been issued for the nearshore waters and beaches. The
trough is also bringing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms well offshore as well. These conditions should
improve as the system moves into South Texas and Mexico. Light to
moderate northeast flow is expected through Friday, followed by
shift to moderate east to southeast flow by the weekend. It is
possible that we may need Small Craft Advisories again by Sunday,
especially over the Gulf.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  56  82  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  63  84  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  70  80  68  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for
     GMZ350-355.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...BSM
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion