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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

370
FXUS64 KHGX 231848
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1248 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Long stretch of unseasonably warm weather with temperatures
  10-25 degrees above normal. These temperatures will be near
  daily record high values, and a few records may fall throughout
  the week.

- Daily visibility reductions due to fog and sea fog, especially
  across the bays and coastal areas. The main threat for fog will
  be during the nighttime and early morning hours, especially
  tonight through Friday morning.

- Last cold front of the year anticipated to move through the area
  on Sunday with colder weather slated for Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Not much different from yesterday... same pattern continues with
onshore flow at the surface and 586-588 dam midlevel ridge overhead.
Anticipating temperatures 10-25 degrees above normal with highs in
the 70s/lower 80s with lows in the 60s through Saturday. These
temperatures will hit or break records at some locations.

Much of yesturday`s analysis with regards to sea fog still applies
with only a few differences. Water temperatures continue to warm.
Around Matagorda bay Tw hovers around the upper 60s/lower 70s. At
and east of Freeport, water temperatures remain in the mid/lower
60s. The Galveston Bay entrance (north Jetty) now sits at 61.7F,
~0.9F increase from yesterday (60.8F). Winds are firmly E this
afternoon, likely advecting some cooler water temperatures into the
area to limit the extend of warming. Dewpoints in the upper
60s/lower 70s dewpoints can still be observed across much of SE
Texas. Inland fog wasn`t as impressive this morning, though the
coastal plains still got widespread sub 1/4 mile visibility from sea
fog advecting inland. Patches of sea fog are looming over the
nearshore waters (High Island-Freeport) this afternoon... and I
would not be shocked if some of these dense patches hold on through
the rest of the daytime.

NBM and short range model guidance now show higher confidence in
dense sea fog beyond mid week across the coastal waters. Not too
surprising that it`s shifting course, as previously mentioned
yesterday, there were several factors suggesting that model guidance
was potentially underdoing the full extend of sea fog. First, RTOFS
SST has water temperatures at the Galveston bay entrance at 62.4F
while the north jetty (again) is showing 61.7F (~0.7F Difference).
NBM Dewpoints for this same point are being sampled as 63F even
though the Galveston ASOS is reading dewpoints at 69F. This drop in
dewpoint stems from model/ensemble members in the NBM and their
attempts to incorporate the effects of the cooler water
temperatures. Again, it`s import to keep this in mind when
attempting the gauge the extend of sea fog, as they will make the
Td/Tw gap appear smaller over these cooler spots. Bottom line, model
guidance would suggest the difference in dewpoint/water temp to be
around 0-2F, when in reality the gap is still around 7F in the
coolest spots.

This evening into the morning of Christmas Eve will likely see fog
return, widespread and dense over the waters, bays & coastal plains,
becoming thinner areas/patches further inland. Fog will erode during
the daytime again, but some pockets will loom over the nearshore
waters and bays, especially in areas east of Freeport where the
waters are coolest. Fog will roll back in again the night of
Christmas Eve, resulting in a foggy Christmas morning for SE Texas.
SREF, HREF, and REFS are all showing strong signals for fog during
this period. Again this will primarily impact the coastal plains,
though many areas south of US-59 will likely experience the tropical
equivalent of a White Christmas.

Thursday night into Friday will most likely see another round of
fog, though winds are expected to shift south/southwesterly early in
the morning. This orientation is overall less favorable for sea fog,
and pairing it with the slowly warming water temperatures, we should
(hopefully) see the full extend & intensity of sea fog become more
limited as we head into the weekend. The next cold front is
currently forecasted to move through SE Texas on Sunday, producing
showers/storms and providing one last cool-down before end of the
year. This will bring a more definitive end to this current stretch
of sea fog as strong northeasterly winds develop in the wake of the
front.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 516 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Mainly a "rinse and repeat" TAF forecast for this issuance with
LIFR-MVFR conditions early this morning due to low cloud decks as
well as areas of patchy to dense fog (mainly over the southern
portions of SE Texas). Fog is expected to burn off around 15Z and
cigs will gradually rise throughout the day (possibly scattering
out in the afternoon)...however, GLS/LBX will be slower to improve
due to sea fog continuing over the bays and nearshore waters for
much of the day. SE winds at 05-10 KTS today, relaxing to 5 KTS or
less tonight. Another round of LIFR- MVFR cigs/vis expected
tonight into Tue morning due to low decks and fog/sea fog.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1231 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Patchy fog will linger through the entire day near the bay
entrances and nearshore waters, especially in areas east of
Freeport. Any improvements later this afternoon will quickly end
by the evening hours with areas of dense fog returning tonight
into Wednesday morning. Sea fog will likely return nightly through
at least Friday morning with some patches possible through the
weekend. Light onshore winds and low seas prevail through
Saturday. A cold front will move through the area on Sunday. Small
Craft Advisories may be needed Sunday night into Monday as strong
northeast winds develop behind the front.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  65  79  63  79 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  66  79  64  79 /   0  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  64  74  63  75 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for GMZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion