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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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685
FXUS64 KHGX 031757
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1257 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch remains in effect for parts of southeast TX through
  7 pm this evening.

- Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon will primarily be
  concentrated west of I-45. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty
  winds will be the main threat.

- Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible
  on a daily basis into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

The surface remnants of Edouard continue to slowly track westward
across North Texas this afternoon with low level features now
largely absorbed into the mean flow. Moderate to heavy
precipitation continues to be closely tied to the mid level
vorticity maximum which is centered near the Leon/Robertson
County area based on GRK radar data and latest satellite imagery.
A notable warming of cloud tops has been observed over the last
hour and precipitation rates have come down significantly. It
appears that the remnant mid level circulation may be entraining
some drier air from its periphery which is resulting in some low
level cooling in areas of precipitation. This has generated a fairly
tight gradient in theta-e extending from just south of the
circulation toward Galveston Bay. A narrow band of strong low
level convergence has set up along this boundary of stronger
early afternoon heating where MLCAPE is >2500J/kg. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms have developed right along this boundary
from near Rosenberg northward through the west side of Houston and
becoming more concentrated near Conroe. Locally intense rainfall
rates can be expected in this band of showers and thunderstorms
given PW values still between 2.2-2.4 inches. In addition, we
can`t rule out an isolated severe wind gust with the strongest
storms.

This area of convective development should shift south and west
through the rest of the afternoon and evening aided by weak ascent
from the mid level circulation and is supported by the latest CAM
guidance. Fortunately, most of these areas missed out on the
heaviest rainfall from Edouard, so any instances of flash flooding
should be fairly localized. We`ll have the highest PoPs generally
west of I-45 through the rest of the afternoon and evening with
coverage decreasing during the late evening hours.

The mid level circulation will linger through the day Friday with
a southwest motion as upper ridging tries to expand across the
Southern Plains. While the model guidance has quite a spread in
rain chances tomorrow, we should see a decent coverage of
afternoon showers and storms along the sea breeze given the
proximity of the mid level vorticity maximum and continued high PW
values. Moderate instability and weak deep layer wind fields will
continue to support slow moving thunderstorms with a locally heavy
rainfall threat and isolated gusty wind threat through the late
afternoon.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

A broad weakness in the mid level heights will persist into the
weekend across the northwest Gulf and southeast TX. While this
doesn`t specifically imply that we`ll be within a region of
ascent, it should keep stronger subsidence in check from ridging
to the north. With strong afternoon heating and a continued
reservoir of deep moisture in place across the region, we should
again see a decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms along the
sea breeze Saturday afternoon where we`ll have 40-60% PoPs.

No meaningful change in the upper pattern is really expected into
next week with southeast TX remaining beneath deep southeast to
east flow through 500 mb and the stronger ridge axis remaining
displaced to our north. This will continue to support daily
afternoon storm chances through the middle of next week. High
temperatures will generally range from the low to mid 90s with
farther inland areas and the Brazos Valley possibly getting into
the upper 90s early next week.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Significant TSRA is being monitored along a boundary stretching from
CXO south toward SGR. TEMPOs including MVFR cigs/vis, gusty winds,
and TSRA during the 18z to 23z period have been written. Beyond 23Z,
winds are generally expected to become calm and VRB overnight. Early
next morning during the 11z to 14z period, models are signaling a
potential for MVFR to IFR cig/vis for the northernmost TAF sites.
There is notable spatial uncertainty in terms of how far these
cig/vis will spread, so trends will continue to be monitored. Moving
into the morning and early afternoon Friday, models are suggesting a
potential for SH with TS for IAH/HOU and the southern TAF sites.
VCSH was included at the end of those TAFs to hint at this trend and
take into account current model uncertainty.

JMG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Light to moderate onshore winds and 2-3 ft seas will prevail through
the end of the week and into the weekend. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. Locally higher
winds and seas will be possible near any strong storms.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  75  93  74  94 /  30  30  10  20
Houston (IAH)  78  93  77  93 /  20  50  10  50
Galveston (GLS)  83  90  82  90 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     196-198>200-300.

GM...None.

&&

$$

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion