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823
FXUS64 KHGX 110609 CCA
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
109 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Next weather system and associated band of storms push across
  the region Wednesday. There is the potential for isolated strong
  to severe storms. All severe weather hazards will be possible.

- Some hazardous marine conditions mariners and Spring Breaker`s
  should be aware of: some fog tonight, rip currents & building
  surf Tue-Wed, moderate to strong north winds Wed night and Thurs
  (typically inflatables are discouraged by beach patrol with
  offshore winds).

- Monitoring the potential for another cold front going into early
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Mid-level low pushing eastward from the northwestern area of
Mexico and western Texas will continue to proceed eastward during
the overnight hours. Meanwhile, we may see embedded vort maxes
moving overhead ahead of the trough. Along the surface there will
be a cold front moving near the south central region of Texas
overnight and is to continue eastward towards our western counties
Wednesday morning, providing additional lift over our area.

This combination could lead to periods of isolated showers and
thunderstorms tonight into Wednesday morning. Although most of the
activity is expected to be over areas north of I-10 (where the
highest amounts of moisture will be), I wouldn`t discard a shower
or two for areas south of I-10. Aside from the rain chances,
winds will remain elevated and gusty tonight into Wednesday as a
40-50 knot low level jet prevails overhead. It will be warm and
muggy tonight with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

The mid-level low and the cold front seem to be approaching our
western counties roughly around the mid to late morning period on
Wednesday, while another cold front over the central Texas follows
shortly behind. We will likely see a good rise in moisture in the
morning as moisture converges over Southeast TX ahead of the cold
fronts (PWATS ranging between 1.5 to 1.8 inches) and with it an
increase in shower and thunderstorm activity over most of
Southeast Texas. By the late morning to afternoon hours,
instability will increase leading to the development of heavier
showers and stronger storms while shear remains fairly good ahead
of the frontal passage. There is the potential for isolated severe
storms, capable of producing strong damaging winds, hail, and
isolated tornadoes. For those who like to know a little about the
numbers within forecast soundings, the 00Z NAM sounding for early
to mid afternoon hours shows SFC CAPE values near 1000-1500 J/kg,
SFC-1km SRH of 150-200 m2/s2, DCAPE near 1000 J/kg, SFC-1km shear
of 20-25 knots, and 700-500mb lapse rate of 6.0-7.0 C/km ahead of
the frontal passages.

The SPC Convective Outlook for Wednesday will include a Slight
Risk (level 2 of 5) of Severe Thunderstorms for areas east of a
line extending from Burleson County southward into Brazoria
County, and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) over the rest of
Southeast Texas. Although all severe weather hazards are possible,
damaging winds have the highest probability. The best timing for
the severe weather potential at this time continues to be during
the late morning to early evening hours and could affect your
commute. Make sure to stay tuned to the latest forecast and have
multiple ways of receiving weather warnings.

Showers and storms will decrease Wednesday night as drier and
cooler air moves across the region in the wake of the fronts.
Temperatures will decrease Wednesday night and many locations will
see lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s before sunrise Thursday.
Cooler weather prevails on Thursday with highs ranging in the mid
to upper 60s areawide, which is a few degrees below normal for
this time of the year. FINALLY A SPRING DAY :D.

Although fair weather conditions will prevail through the
upcoming weekend, the sad part is that the cooler conditions will
not. The warming trend will already begin on Friday as the
southerly flow returns to our region, and the highs will be about
10 degrees warmer that day (ranging in the mid 70s for most
locations inland). There is a chance we will once again have some
moisture convergence on Sunday ahead of another cold front and the
highs will rise into the mid to upper 80s that day. Thus, be
prepared for the heat if you plan to work or spend time outdoors
on Sunday. Moisture amounts may be enough for some isolated
showers and storms ahead of the front, possibly during the late
afternoon to early night hours. Dry and cool air will once again
move in behind the front with fair weather expected Monday and
Tuesday.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Gusty south winds and mix of IFR/high MVFR across the area, with
some very light -SHRA around CLL and UTS to start. Should see
another night with low MVFR and potentially some IFR CIGs, but
generally anticipating slightly better conditions tonight due to
stronger winds.

Focus then turns to potential for TSRA ahead of/along incoming
front. Highest confidence farther north, through IAH or so which
have prevailing SHRA and TEMPO TSRA for broken line of storms.
Farther south, confidence in line holding together diminishes, and
transition to TSRA becoming a PROB30 from HOU coastward. Northern
sites and IAH extended begin to address wind shift after FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

SE winds tonight will be 15-20 kts and seas will be 4-6 ft.
Caution flags for the bays and nearshore waters and a Small Craft
Advisory for the offshore waters are in effect through 12Z Wed
morning. A cold front is progged to push across SE Texas on Wed,
bringing periods of showers and thunderstorms over the bays and
Gulf waters throughout the day. Strong storms are possible mainly
during the afternoon to late evening hours. Strong north-
northwest to north winds will develop in the wake of the front Wed
night into Thursday afternoon. Bays will be choppy and seas will
rise to 6-8 ft, although seas up to 10 ft are possible further
offshore. Small Craft Advisories will be likely. Gusts could be
near gale strength at times. Winds relax and seas gradually
decrease Thu night. Light onshore winds return Friday and continue
into the upcoming weekend. Another cold front will pass through
late Sun. Expect strong NW winds in the wake of the front late Sun
into Mon.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  67  79  45  66 /  60  80  30   0
Houston (IAH)  71  81  51  68 /  30  90  40   0
Galveston (GLS)  69  78  56  67 /  10  70  30   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for
     GMZ330-335-350-355.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cotto
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion