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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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465
FXUS64 KHGX 261026
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
426 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm and humid conditions along with overnight/morning fog
  will continue into the weekend. Temperatures will be in the
  vicinity of records, and a few daily records may be tied or
  broken.

- A strong cold front late Sunday night into Monday morning will
  bring much colder conditions early next week, followed by a slow
  warmup deeper into the week.

- Gale conditions look increasingly likely after the front in the
  Gulf waters and potentially the bays late Sunday night through
  Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1133 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

The weather this Christmas evening is basically the same, but a
little different, but really the same. We didn`t manage any record
highs today...but probably more because the records today were a
bit stronger, as we are still far, far above your typical late
December temperatures in Southeast Texas. And tonight, we have yet
another foggy night, focused on the coastal bays and waters. But,
in a bit of a change, dense fog does not appear to be as
widespread as the previous umpteen nights, instead concentrating
more in dense patches around the waters, with more broad areas of
less dense fog, and even more low stratus farther inland.

All of this is to say that while things are largely still the same
as they`ve been for the last several days, we are at least
starting to see the first small changes that signal a change on
the horizon when a much-awaited cold front arrives late Sunday.

But...until then...we`re gonna keep on keeping on in the current
frame of unseasonable warmth and overnight fog. Indeed, as we get
into the weekend, we may see temps nudge up very slightly, with a
few more folks getting into the 80 degree game. Sunday may be
particularly interesting, as high temps will (either directly or
indirectly) be influenced by the approaching front. Earlier, my
puzzling had been whether the front would arrive early enough to
chop down temps before the usual diurnal peak or not. Confidence
in the timing is probably high enough now that Sunday looks like
it will be safely another warm day in the streak.

Now, we get into some more nuanced puzzling - when a strong front
arrives, sometimes the hottest afternoon will be just before the
front arrives. With a combination of typically warmer southwest
flow but also a front near enough to induce some compressional
heating along/ahead of the front, we can really juice up the temps
before they take a dive. But...if the front comes too late, we`ll
miss out on that double effect, and end up with a day similar to
the days leading up to it, or a bit cooler if there`s significant
cloud cover. So, which do we get on Sunday? Given recent model
trends, it does look like frontal timing is slipping even a bit
more, becoming more of a Sunday night/early Monday morning thing
instead of Sunday evening. Because of this, I keep temperatures
pretty similar to Saturday...and Friday...just a touch warmer than
today. This does assume that we scatter out the morning
fog/stratus enough. Buuuuuut, if you`re interested, I checked out
the NBM 75th percentile numbers just to explore a "what if" for a
slightly faster front that gives us that extra boost. That
scenario has widespread highs in the 80s, with the hottest part of
the coastal plain making it up into the middle 80s! That`s
obviously a lower probability scenario (implied to be about 25
percent, though I will always note that NBM reality is not true
reality, so they`re not *perfectly* interchangeable), but it is
certainly a plausible one if the timing works out that way.

But, at some point Sunday night, the front will move through. I
did hedge above the deterministic NBM for PoPs Sunday night, given
the moisture available and the strength of the front moving
through. However, we`re still on roughly the same page as far as
the character of any rain - mostly scattered showers, a stray
thunderstorm embedded in there amongst it. Despite moisture and a
focusing mechanism, the upper trough still doesn`t look strong
enough to dig any more than the Central Plains against the strong
ridging we`ve had in place. After some lingering slight chance
PoPs for trailing showers on Monday, we dry things out with a much
colder and drier airmass.

How much colder? Well, if you`re a cold miser, you`ll want to look
at the relative change. Highs Monday and Tuesday should be about
30 degrees lower than they`re forecast to be on Sunday! And if
you`re really into freezing temps, then get yourself north of the
Houston metro (maybe even the northernmost fringes of the metro!)
as we`ll be looking for a night or two in the 28-32 degree range
up there. It should be pretty chilly all the way to the coast,
with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

I will note that if there`s any room to move with this forecast,
it will probably be in the downward direction. We`re still 5-6
days out, and global models are notorious in this area for not
being able to quite capture the intensity of the shallowest layer
of post-frontal cold, likely due to vertical resolution issues.
And despite this, and despite the deterministic numbers, NBM
probabilities for sub-freezing mins even coastward of I-10 in the
rural areas southwest of the Houston metro are near or a little
above 50 percent! I`ve already hedged by diving under the
deterministic NBM here, but there`s a chance it may not be enough.
And if we do any future adjusting from here on out, I`d expect it
to be downwards. To explore a scenario that is low probability,
but still wouldn`t be terribly surprising to see, Tuesday night
lows in the NBM`s 25th percentile bring lows of 31-32 almost to
the Gulf beaches. Now...given the strength of the ridging and heat
we`ve had in place, I`m not convinced we`re going to get *that*
cold, but it`s enough to make me nudge things more that way than
the NBM seems willing to go.

For Wednesday onward, things get a little less exciting. Zonal
flow, or even some weak ridging sets up aloft, which gives us an
expectation for fair weather and probably a slow warmup deep into
the week. We`ll be on the lookout to see how a decent shortwave
trough plays into things towards the end of next week as it would
be the next chance for some showers, but anything beyond this
vague description would getting pretty speculative.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 426 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

The combination of elevated winds and the wind direction being in
a more southwesterly orientation has kept dense fog from
developing in the region early this morning. There`s still some
potential for fog development for terminals south of I-10 through
16Z though as winds are expected to relax. Until then, low
cloud ceilings are the main story, which has led to a mixed bag of
MVFR to LIFR conditions with the lower ceilings closer to the
coast. Ceilings gradually lift after sunrise, but look to linger
in the MVFR range through 18Z-20Z. Winds throughout the day will
be southwesterly around 10 kt sustained with occasional 15-20 kt
gusts through the afternoon. Winds tonight into Saturday morning
remain a bit elevated and also southwesterly. Based on what we`ve
seen last night/this morning, this trends toward more of a low
cloud ceiling event rather than widespread dense fog. The
potential for dense fog is certainly not zero, especially near
the coast. However, it does look at least slightly less favorable
than the past several nights (except at GLS where the fog
potential remains generally high).

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1133 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Another night of sea fog is ongoing, though a subtle change in the
winds has made for a situation more patchy dense fog than previous
nights` widespread banks of dense fog. This general pattern should
continue through the weekend, with the highest threat of dense fog
overnight and during the morning. However, this small shift may
allow for longer breaks in the fog in the late mornings and
afternoons. A strong cold front pushes offshore late Sunday
night, bringing strong winds and building seas in its wake. The
chance of gale force wind gusts continues to increase,
particularly over the Gulf. At the very least, small craft
advisories will be necessary with the winds after this front, and
perhaps a gale watch if confidence in these winds continues to
grow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  82  66  82  66 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  82  67  82  66 /  10   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  73  65  73  66 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335-
     350-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Luchs

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion