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FXUS64 KHGX 060445

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1145 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...

Had a few stray storms develop after the 00Z TAF issuance and this
did highlight the various boundaries leftover across SE TX. So not
planning on any major changes with the next package given the con-
tinued influx of shortwave activity from the N/NW. While the best/
higher POPs will likely be east of our sites, did keep the mention
of VCTS/VCSH for some locations given the possibility of outflows/
other meso factors tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, mainly VFR cond-
itions to prevail the rest of tonight. 41


.PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 346 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020/

SHORT TERM [Today through Thursday Afternoon]...

Fair weather prevailed this morning and early afternoon across
Southeast TX. Sunny skies this morning and early afternoon allowed
for temperatures to rise up to the mid 90s by 1 PM CDT along areas
north of I-10 and are expected to rise into the upper 90s,
particularly along areas west of I-45 and north of I-10. Make sure
to practice Heat Safety if you plan to be outdoors today.

Earlier this morning, a cluster of showers and thunderstorms
developing over Northern TX and OK moved south southeastward into
Northeast TX and Northwest LA. With these storms a surge of low
level moisture was expected, increasing PWs up to around 2.1 inches
across the eastern half of the CWA. GOES 16 TPW has confirmed this
surge, with PWs already at 1.9 to 2.1 inches over the eastern
half of the CWA as of 1 PM CDT today, which will help increase the
potential for storm development for today. The combination of the
moisture, diurnal heating, instability and several outflow
boundaries (from the storms now located over Western LA and
Eastern TX as well as the local seabreeze boundaries) will produce
showers and thunderstorms starting over the northeastern quadrant
of the CWA and expand southward into the eastern and central
portions throughout the afternoon hours. As moisture and heating
increases, expected these storms to intensify. Most of the
development should mainly affect areas that are located along
I-45 and eastward, but a stray shower or thunderstorm should not
be ruled out along the rest of the central and southern areas.
Frequent lightning, strong gusty, and heavy rainfall will
accompany these showers and thunderstorms. Slow moving storms
producing heavy rainfall could lead to minor urban/rural and
street flooding. The SPC Day 1 Outlook continues a Marginal Risk
for severe thunderstorms for areas east of a line extending from
Madison County southward through Galveston County. By the late
evening into early night hours, weather conditions will improve
and skies will scatter out.

A weak mid to upper level shortwave will move east southeastward
across Northeast TX and Northwest LA tonight into Thursday morning.
This feature, combined with ample moisture lingering over eastern TX
and western LA could produce additional isolated showers and
thunderstorms for those regions during the night hours. Although
most of the models keep this activity to our east, we also have
fairly good moisture in place along areas east of I-45, and have
thus added low PoPs for those locations. Thursday morning, showers
and thunderstorms over LA will be expanding westward and into our
eastern counties. Storm development will increase and expand
further across the CWA as heating ramps up in the afternoon. PoPs
were slightly increased for Thursday. High temperatures will once
again be in the mid to upper 90s along areas north of I-10 and in
the low to mid 90s along areas south of I-10. 24


College Station (CLL)      75  98  75  97  75 /  20  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              77  94  76  94  75 /  20  30  10  10   0
Galveston (GLS)            82  91  82  90  82 /  20  20   0  10   0




NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion