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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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256
FXUS64 KHGX 140608
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1208 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Conditions will turn sharply towards the wintry after a strong
  cold front finishes passing through the region overnight.

- Hazardous marine conditions continue on the waters - but the
  dense fog of recent nights will be replaced by near-Gale to Gale
  conditions on coastal waters. On coastal islands and peninsulas,
  the expected gusty winds have also prompted a wind advisory for
  Sunday.

- Freezing overnight temperatures are anticipated for a good
  portion of SE TX late Sunday night into Monday morning. Freeze
  Watches have been posted for locations that haven`t seen their
  first freeze of the season.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1111 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

A cold front is making its way across Southeast Texas late this
evening. For now, the main indicator of the front passing is a
smattering of scattered showers, mostly to the east of I-45.
However, once the cold airmass behind the front starts to surge
into the area, we should see conditions change fairly quickly.

Whatever temperatures are at midnight? That`s going to be the high
for today, as post-frontal north winds will pick up quickly to
signal the arrival of the western fringes of a sharp, arctic
airmass pushing into the Continental US. Temperatures will fall
through the night, then hold steady and...maybe...rise a few
degrees during the day, then head right on back to falling once
the sun is low enough that it can no longer overcome the combined
powers of radiational cooling and cold air advection. Winds will
be gusty, but not necessarily excessively so for most of the area
for any real duration. Peak gusts may end up being around 30 mph
over the rural west, but should mostly be in the 10-20 mph range
with some gusts up into the 20s. This is getting awfully close to
the threshold for a wind advisory, but without sustained winds
above 25 mph or several hours of gusts over that, I`ve opted to
hold off for now. The exception to this? Chambers County
(primarily the parts downwind of Trinity Bay) and area islands and
peninsulas beyond the Intracoastal Waterway. These locations
should all have relatively low-friction surfaces upstream of
them, allowing winds to crank up a bit more. So, I did opt to
issue a wind advisory for those zones today. Once the sun goes
down and we lose the ability to mix down stronger winds just
aloft, gusts should come down significantly.

Also going down significantly overnight into Monday morning? Yup,
those temperatures. A large freeze watch remains in place for
locations that are expected to see relatively widespread dips
below freezing tonight for the first time this season. Yesterday
was probably the best time to finish off those cold weather prep
while it was still warm - but if you`ve got some exposed pipes to
wrap, plants to bring in, etc. you`ll have all day today to take
care of that as well.

Though this shot of wintry air will be chilly, no doubt, it also
looks to be pretty short-lived. Winds look to turn back around to
being onshore later on Monday, which will begin us on the process
of bringing in warmer, more humid Gulf air. It won`t be an
immediate turnaround - Monday night will still be a cold one
across the area - but probabilities for sub-freezing temps go way
down for all but the Piney Woods beyond Lake Livingston.

After this cold shot, we do have a couple more things to keep an
eye out for this week. The first will be Wednesday as an upper
trough scoots across Texas, potentially also spinning up a trough
or weak low over the Gulf. We certainly do have plenty of the
ingredients for our next round of showers and perhaps some storms
in the general area for this period. But, it`s also probably worth
mentioning that any surface low looks to be well offshore, which
won`t necessarily be great for strong low level moisture return.
I`ve got slight chance (well inland) to chance (coast) PoPs late
Tuesday night and Wednesday, but I don`t know that there`s a whole
lot to say about it beyond that. Unless...in the next couple of
days, guidance starts to line up these holes in the cheese a
little more. Something to evaluate over the next couple of days,
but from the data I have now, not particularly worrying.

Later this week, we`ll look for our next cold front in the train
to move on through. Unlike tonight`s front, which is powered by a
deepening upper trough and pool of arctic air surging into the
CONUS...this next one will see flow aloft remain more zonal, and
the coldest air remain hemmed up in the northern tier of the
country...at least until the 1040+ mb surface high drops in, but
by then, it will be well to the east of us. For here, Friday looks
to get a bit cooler, and Friday night a little chilly (think lows
in the 40s and 50s, not 20s and 30s). But really, it will just be
the quick hop step as we polka our way towards higher temperatures
and the weekend. No? Nothing? Huh, that line woulda been big in
Sheboygan...

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 558 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

A somewhat tricky forecast for the overnight period. Cigs and vis
are expected to continue to lower this evening and tonight to
IFR-MVFR and areas of patchy to dense fog could also reduce vis
for some of our sites, in particular for sites closer to the water
due to the development of sea fog. In addition, iso-sct showers
and thunderstorms are possible ahead and along a cold front that
is progged to move through SE TX tonight. Winds will be light and
VRB tonight, but N winds at 15-20 KTS with gusts of 23-30 KTS will
develop in the wake of the front. Cigs will gradually lift and
scatter out on Sun as drier air moves in, but winds will remain
elevated through the evening, gradually relaxing during the night
hours.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1111 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

In the remaining hours before the front arrives, expect light
onshore winds, low seas, and even patchy fog redevelopment.
The front is about to move into the Houston metro, and should be
pushing into the bays after midnight, and out over the Gulf
between 3 and 6 am.

While light winds and any fog may linger for a short while after
the front passes, they will scour out shortly afterwards as
strong, gusty north to northeast winds build in the front`s wake.
Along with the strong winds, building seas will follow. Gusts to
near gale force are expected on the bays, and frequent gusts to or
above gale are likely on the Gulf. A Small Craft Advisory is in
place for the Bays and a Gale Warning on the Gulf until late
Sunday night. For those working onshore, a wind advisory is in
place on all islands and peninsulas beyond the Intracoastal
Waterway as well as Chambers County on Sunday.

Winds and seas gradually diminish Monday morning, and return to a
southeast direction by Monday night. The quick turn in winds
should prevent low tides from getting low enough to require a Low
Water Advisory, but we should still see a few low tide cycles with
levels around or slightly below MLLW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  48  53  30  55 /  20   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  53  57  33  54 /  40   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  54  61  37  53 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
     TXZ178-195>200-210>214-227-300-313.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for TXZ214-436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 3 AM CST Monday for
     GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ350-355-
     370-375.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM Sunday to 3 AM CST Monday for GMZ350-355-
     370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion