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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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108
FXUS64 KHGX 201137
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
537 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog are expected during the evening, overnight, and
  morning hours through Saturday morning.

- Scattered showers expected Friday along with an uncertain
  temperature forecast due to the presence of a frontal boundary
  (see discussion).

- Cold front pushes through the region during the day Saturday,
  bringing cooler & drier weather Sunday and Monday, along with
  strong winds in the Gulf and bays.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1032 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

When I first sat down at the forecast desk this evening, I thought
I`d have the privilege of working on a relatively straight
forward forecast. But the shallow chilly air looming to our north
said "no easy forecasts allowed!" Thus, we have a tricky
temperature forecast on Friday.

The chilly air is behind a southward progressing cold front over
north Texas. In previous forecasts, this front was expected to
washout near our northern counties. But high resolution guidance
suggests this front could push farther south into our CWA. Given
the history of overperforming shallow chilly airmasses, we opted
to give these colder models some weight in today`s forecast.
Conditions should remain pretty warm and humid ahead of the front.
For our central and southern counties, we continue to forecast
highs near 80. But for our northern counties, we are now
forecasting afternoon temperatures in the 60s. Some of the more
aggressive guidance tries to bring this front all the way down to
I-10! So something to watch. We also expect some scattered shower
activity thanks to modest lift being introduced into the
southeast Texas atmosphere. May also have a little overrunning
behind the front, which could enhance shower activity somewhat to
the north of the boundary.

Before moving on, let`s talk about fog. Areas of fog are likely
during the morning, evening, and overnight hours through Saturday
morning. The only wild card is if the NAM is correct, which brings
the aforementioned boundary offshore Friday evening. This would
technically lessen the fog risk for Friday night and Saturday
morning. For now, we are not thinking this will happen. The best
chance of dense fog will be across our southern and coastal
counties.

A stronger cold front pushes through the region on Saturday,
bringing gusty northerly winds, drier air, and cooler temperatures
in its wake by late afternoon or evening. The sfc high building
into CONUS from Canada continues to look quite strong. The
trajectory of the coldest air will be towards E CONUS. But I still
can`t help but think that temperatures will be a little cooler
than the NBM is selling. So I leaned a little more towards the
cooler global guidance. We are currently expecting afternoon highs
in the low/mid 60s on Sunday/Monday, with overnight lows in the
30s and 40s. After that, it appears warm and moist onshore flow
returns, bringing another round of warmer and more humid
conditions by the middle of next week.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 537 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Very challenging forecast for the Houston terminals due to weak
front drooping into the area having an outsize influence on
conditions. More optimistic at CLL and UTS as they should get into
some post-frontal air, and have potential to get a brief bit of
VFR after morning fog/CIGs. CXO-SGR will likely need to be watched
very carefully through the day for VSBY and CIG trends. For now,
have opted to sort CXO into the northern clump with some brief
VFR. IAH, HOU, and SGR am more pessimistic, keeping them in
overrunning section just ahead of the front, locking in MVFR CIGs
for the afternoon. There is some low chance of light showers, but
not enough confidence in impact for even a PROB30 at this point.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1032 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Areas of fog will continue tonight into tomorrow morning, possibly
lingering into the afternoon over the Gulf and near the coast. We
expect another round of fog Friday evening into Saturday morning.
However, warming water temperatures and a nearby frontal boundary
could potentially mitigate the fog risk Friday night into Saturday
morning. For now, we are keeping areas of dense fog in the
forecast.

On Saturday, a frontal boundary will push offshore. Increasing
north winds and building seas are likely in the front`s wake by
Saturday evening and night. Small Craft Advisory level conditions
are likely Saturday night into Sunday. Over the Gulf, winds could
gust to gale force while seas build to 6-10 feet. Conditions
should improve late Sunday into Monday, with onshore flow
returning by Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  68  55  75  41 /  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  79  64  80  48 /  40  10  20   0
Galveston (GLS)  74  64  74  51 /  30  10  30   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ197-199-
     200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335.

     Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ350-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion