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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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819
FXUS64 KHGX 261803
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1203 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A weak cold front will push off the coast overnight/early Friday
  Patchy fog could develop out ahead of it, especially along the
  coast.

- Onshore winds quickly return late Friday afternoon with ridging
  building aloft this weekend.

- Weak front could push into SE Texas on Monday, though chances of
  it reaching our area are low. Increasing cloudiness results in
  some slightly cooler high temperatures.

- Overall warm weather through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1145 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Marine Recon Cameras showed some hazy conditions across the Gulf
waters this morning with buoys/oil platform obs showing around 2-4 NM
visibility over the nearshore waters. Water temperatures are
currently in the mid/lower 60s with dewpoints just a tad above them.
Daytime heating is poised to warm the region, especially as sky
cover thins. Southwesterly winds aloft should aid with warming
today, though only partially due to winds easing ahead of an
approaching cold front. Still, we`ll probably see some compressional
heating ahead of the FROPA, which should help compensate. Highs this
afternoon will still top out in the 70s/lower 80s with at least some
isolated mid/upper 80s packed in there as well to our
west/northeast.

This evening, high resolution models are showing ESE winds briefly
developing as the weak front nears the city of Houston. Dewpoints
are still generally anticipated to be around the 64-66 degree range
along the coast. However, having this stronger easterly component is
often more potent with respect to sea fog, so we`ll have to be on
our toes for any patches that may pop up. Water temperatures are
still broadly around that 64 degree mark, if not warmer in some
spots, thus this small td-tw depression should help mitigate the
intensity of any sea fog. Still, winds are also going to decrease as
the front approaches, and if we get some deeper dewpoints pooling
ahead of the boundary, it`s certainly possible to get some thicker
patches. SREF has the chance of visibility under 1 mile at around
30% for both bays and the immediate coastal waters. Overall fairly
reasonable given the pattern. Will mostly likely be patchy in nature
with only a few dense pockets possible in the coldest areas of the
bays/coastline. I`d anticipate generally 2-6 mile visibility with
the worst visibility reductions possible after ~9 PM... though my
confidence in these sub 2 NM visibilities is only growing as this 2-
4 NM haze over the gulf persists deeper into the afternoon. If we do
get sea fog, then optimistically we could see improvement occur
during the pre-dawn hours as the front slowly pushes off the coast,
possibly as early as ~4 AM. Still, I wouldn`t rule out some misty
conditions lingering till sunrise if the FROPA is much slower.
Anticipate lows for Friday morning to be in the mid 50s/lower 60s.

Friday is still anticipated to be warm due to sufficient airmass
modification, though it`ll certainly drier on the whole. Afternoon
RH is anticipated to drop to around 25-40% for most inland areas,
though some deeper moisture can very likely linger across some of
our coastal areas (potentially keeping it around 40-70%). Fairly
dry, but not dry/windy enough to prompt any significant fire wx
concerns. Onshore flow returns late Friday afternoon, ushering in a
warming trend through the weekend as ridging builds aloft. Expect
highs in the 70s/80s with lows in the 50s/lower 60s. High
temperatures on Friday may be warmer than that of today`s highs due
to the drier conditions and lack of cloud cover.

Next week should see a few shortwaves & disturbances pass to the
north of our area. With one of these, a cold front will attempt to
scoot its way into SE Texas on Monday. GFS/EURO deterministic models
are split on this with the GFS bringing the front into SE Texas
while the ERO keeps it further north near the Red River Valley. LREF
ensemble guidance highlights this differences as well with GEFS
members favoring a northerly wind direction on Monday at KCLL, while
ENS & GEPS favor a southerly flow regime. Members are strongly
clustered around that southerly flow pattern, and given the EURO`s
better track record with fronts as we transition to the warm season,
I think this is the more reasonable outcome presently. At minimum,
we`ll see increased cloud cover through the end of the forecast with
highs still in the 70s/mid 80s. Overnight lows should rise into the
60s.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 525 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

MVFR cigs over most SE TX TAF sites through around 15Z this
morning, then gradually lifting and scattering for most inland
locations. Winds will be southerly at around 10 knots in the
morning and then become VRB during the afternoon as a dry, weak
cold front moves through. Winds will remain light and VRB tonight.
Low cigs will return Thu night and areas of fog will develop
overnight into early Fri, leading to IFR-MVFR vis/cigs.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1145 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Wave heights remain elevated offshore, around 8.5 ft this afternoon,
thus have opted to extend the Small Craft Advisory through 5 PM to
allow these seas to subside. Patchy sea fog will be possible across
the nearshore waters and bays tonight ahead of a weak cold front.
Anticipate 2-6 NM visibility with pockets of even lower visibility
possible overnight into the early morning hours of Friday. Sea fog
should clear out Friday morning, the timing of which depends on how
quickly the front reaches the coast. Onshore flow returns late
Friday afternoon. Light onshore winds under 15 knots and low seas of
2-3 ft prevail through early next week.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  84  57  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  83  64  85  60 /   0  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  73  63  76  61 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ350-355.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ370-
     375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion