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822
FXUS64 KHGX 141920
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
220 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and humid conditions continue through the end of the week.
  Heat index values in the 90s at the end of the work week.

- Rain chances increase over the weekend as a cold front moves
  into the region.

- Seasonal conditions expected in the wake of the front going into
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A southwesterly flow pattern aloft remains prevalent across the
region between an upper level ridge over the Gulf and an upper level
trough lifting across the vicinity of the Four Corners. A persistent
southerly to southeasterly surface flow also continues between
ridging over the southeastern U.S. and adjacent Gulf and a trough of
low pressure over the Plains. A resultant warm and muggy pattern
continues with partly to mostly cloudy skies and temperatures mostly
in the lower to mid 80s this afternoon. Very weak lift associated
with the persistent southerly to southeasterly flow could result in
a few sprinkles or a light rain shower this afternoon into early
this evening, but the overall chance of measurable rainfall remains
less than 10% through tonight.

The upper level trough will move across the central Plains on
Wednesday. The bulk of moisture and lift within the southwesterly
flow aloft ahead of this system will remain to our northwest and
north over central and northern portions of the state of Texas,
where better chances of showers and thunderstorms will be favored
Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday evening. An isolated shower
or thunderstorm may develop as far south as the Brazos Valley or
Piney Woods Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, but coverage
looks to remain less than 20%. The warm and humid weather pattern
will continue through the middle to latter part of the week
underneath the persistent southwesterly flow aloft, along with
continued southeasterly to southerly surface flow. The probability
for measurable rainfall remains around 10% or less through Friday.

The next large scale trough is still forecast to translate over the
central and northern CONUS on Saturday. A potent shortwave rounding
the base of this feature will quickly clip across the central Plains
into the Upper Midwest Friday through Saturday afternoon. An
associated cold front is forecast to push through Southeast Texas
Saturday afternoon and evening, bringing a wind shift to the north.
Increased ascent with shortwave impulses embedded with west-
southwest flow aloft and also along the cold front will bring an
increasing chance (up to 40-60%) of showers and thunderstorms to our
forecast area Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Rain chances
currently look to diminish going into Sunday morning, though a few
showers could persist along our southern and southwestern zones.
Temperatures will trend cooler behind the front with lows on
Saturday night forecast to range in the 50s over our central and
northern counties and in the lower 60s along the coast. Highs on
Sunday look to range in the lower to mid 70s. Another shortwave
impulse embedded within zonal flow aloft may bring another low (20-
30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms to portions of our area on
Monday. The relatively cooler temperatures otherwise look to
continue Sunday night into Monday with overnight lows in the 50s
inland to 60s along the coast, with highs on Monday afternoon
forecast to range from around 70 degrees to the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

MVFR and few pockets of IFR CIGs should scatter & lift later this
morning/early in the afternoon. Gusty south to southeast winds are
expected throughout the day, diminishing once again this evening.
Expect another round of MVFR CIGs overnight with pockets of IFR
CIGs possible early Wednesday morning.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A moderate onshore flow will generally continue through the week
and small craft operators will need to exercise caution at times.
The persistent onshore flow will keep water levels elevated
through the week with values up to 2.5-3.0 ft above MLLW around
times of high tide. The onshore flow and increased water levels
may result in wave run-up along Gulf facing beaches as well as an
increased risk of rip currents. A cold front with an associated
chance of showers and thunderstorms will push offshore late
Saturday into early Sunday. Strong offshore winds and increased
seas will likely prompt the issuance of Small Craft Advisories by
late this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  68  84  69  88 /   0  10  10   0
Houston (IAH)  70  84  70  88 /   0  10   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  73  79  72  80 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Wednesday morning
     for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lindsey
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Lindsey

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion