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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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297
FXUS64 KHGX 191135
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat will continue through the weekend, with a Heat
  Advisory in effect through Saturday evening. Limited cooling
  overnight will exacerbate the heat.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Friday and
  Saturday, with the potential for locally heavy rainfall. There
  is a level 2 out of 4 risk for excessive rainfall Friday and
  Friday night. A few strong storms with gusty wind cannot be
  ruled out.

- A high risk of strong rip currents is expected through the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

We remain in an oppressively warm and humid regime as shortwave
upper ridging has built in along the western Gulf Coast. In fact,
the high heat and humidity resulted in the development of haze
yesterday afternoon, and that haze has persisted into the
overnight hours across much of the area. While the likelihood of
warm and humid conditions remains high today, we will introduce a
potential fly in the ointment over the next few days that might
limit heat stress in some areas, at least periodically. A
shortwave tracking from the Red River Valley toward the Central
Gulf Coast will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms
through the weekend, with rain and storm chances coming in rounds.
The first such round could arrive by this afternoon as either
upstream convection moves southeastward into the area or remnant
outflow from upstream convection helps to kick off new development
over our area. Because of the mesoscale nature of this activity,
forecast confidence in timing and location details remains low for
now. However, at this stage there is some indication that this
afternoon through Saturday morning will be the general time frame
with highest rain chances.

While very high rainfall totals are not expected to be
widespread, both the 00z HREF and REFS depict meaningful
probabilities for much more localized rainfall amounts over 5" in
a few areas through early Saturday. Given the moisture rich
environment, with forecast PW rising above 2 in at times, and the
saturated soil conditions from rainfall over the past few days,
flash flooding will be a possibility if these rainfall totals
materialize through early Saturday. WPC is maintaining a slight
ERO across most of our area. Additionally, while deep layer shear
to support organized storms will be weak, sufficient instability
will be possible that we cannot rule out a few stronger storms
capable of damaging wind gusts.

As mentioned before, outside of interference from clouds and
rain, heat stress will remain elevated with potential for heat
indices in the 108-112F (42-44C) range. A Heat Advisory remains in
effect through early Saturday evening. Adjustments to timing may
be needed depending on downstream impacts from clouds/precip.

Rain chances will trend down again early next week as mid level
ridging restrengthens along the northwestern Gulf coast. High
temps will trend back up toward the mid 90s (34-36C) and heat
indices in the triple digits (38C+) will remain possible. Better
daytime mixing may limit dewpoints enough to limit peak heat
indices somewhat, but additional heat products cannot be ruled
out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Predominantly MVFR conditions early today driven by CIGs (though
some fog/haze) with isolated pockets of IFR FLs. FLs should
improve to VFR with daytime heating, though slightly slower in
spots compared to yesterday. A MCS/complex of thunderstorms has
developed over the DFW/San Angelo Area early this morning.
Forecast models project this convection to track southeasterly
throughout the day, though are split on timing and intensity by
the time it reaches SE Texas. Upgraded to TEMPO groups for TSMS
for the northern tier of TAF sites and maintained PROB30s to the
south. Should see a lull in convection during the evening hours
with CIGs/fog starting to fill in. Another potential round of
showers/storms could occur early Saturday morning with a passing
disturbance aloft, though forecast uncertainty is high by this
point.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Moderate south to southeasterly winds will begin to weaken
through this morning, though seas up to 7ft remain possible over
the offshore waters through around daybreak. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are possible tonight through Saturday. Otherwise,
light to moderate south to southeasterly winds will persist
through the weekend, with seas generally remaining below 6 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  93  77  90  77 /  40  40  40  10
Houston (IAH)  93  80  92  79 /  30  30  40  20
Galveston (GLS)  90  83  89  83 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT this morning
     for GMZ330-335-350-355.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DL
AVIATION...03
MARINE...DL

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion