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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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173
FXUS64 KHGX 201138
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
538 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances increase Wednesday in association with a weak
  surface trough and some upper disturbances.

- Arctic Front should sag into the region Friday and Friday night,
  bringing various winter hazards over the weekend:
- Some prolonged temperatures and potential hard freezes.
- Low Wind Chill Values, potentially between 8-20 degrees.
- Risk of Freezing Rain, Sleet/Ice Pellets
- Hazardous marine conditions.

- Residents are encouraged to winterize their home during the
  work week prior to the cold weather arrival.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1236 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

A weak frontal boundary will be sagging southward thru the Brazos
Valley down to about the Columbus-Edna area today then
stall/weaken as it looses its southward push. This remnant
boundary/trof, pooling moisture to its east and some weak impulses
aloft should be enough to generate some light precip across the
region Wednesday into Thursday.

Arctic airmass will begin spilling into parts of the region
Friday and Friday night bringing increasingly cold temperatures
and wind chills to the region over the weekend as a 1050mb-ish
high drops SSE out of Canada into the Plains and Midwest. As this
occurs, a mid/upper trough will be making its way eastward from
the SoCal/Baja region along with a moist, active southern stream
overspreading the colder surface airmass and likely bringing a
swath of precipitation to the region Friday, Saturday and parts
of Sunday.

Of course, the column temperature profile at those times will
determine who sees frozen precipitation, what type, how much, and
what times. I`m not going to regurgitate what every 00z
deterministic model is showing...as it`ll be changing with every
6-hour run cycle thru the week. But here are a few highlights on
the broad picture and some talking points at this time:

- Guidance has been showing a consistent signal for an Arctic
  airmass overspreading the area this weekend. Freezing
  temperatures, possibly some longer durations of sub-freezing
  readings, are likely. Potentially dangerous wind chills too.

- Precipitation is also looking likely. As we get closer to the
  event, and we get into the window of some of our better high
  resolution modeling (late work week or so) we should hopefully
  have some better confidence as to what the atmospheric
  temperature profile might look like and what form the precip
  might take. Have undercut the NBM and ensembles in regards to
  surface temps already. For what they`re worth at this point (not
  a whole lot), forecast soundings point to decent shots of
  freezing rain and maybe some sleet, esp north of I-10...and a
  non-zero chance further south. For planning purposes, I might
  focus upon late Friday evening into early Sunday afternoon.

- Historically speaking, which may or may not be useful for this
  particular event, these shallow cold airmasses typically arrive
  faster and are colder than global guidance indicates. It`s also
  not uncommon to see some general consistency for several days,
  then some runs where guidance looses the signal, before it
  magically reappears in later runs. Try not to follow any
  individual model suite/run...or individual social media
  snapshot. Trends are your friend.

- Residents have time to winterize your home (pipes, sprinkler
  systems, etc) for the next several days in your shorts and flip-
  flops before the cold air arrives. Recommend using this time to
  do so.

47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 531 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR conditions prevail through today. Light and variable winds
will become easterly this morning, and will transition to E/SE
this afternoon at around 10 kts, occasionally gusting to 15 kts.
Increasing cloud cover this afternoon will lead to BKN to OVC
skies. Overnight into Wednesday, expect CIGs to lower to MVFR
levels for the majority of SE Texas beginning anywhere between 4Z
and 6Z. Expect MVFR CIGs to prevail through the end of the TAF
period. Rain will begin to move into the area early Wednesday
morning, increasing in coverage Wednesday morning (past the
current TAF period)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1236 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Mariners should remain mindful of negative tide levels again
today, mainly across the northern bay areas around low tide
cycles. A tightening pressure gradient will lead to some
increasing Gulf winds today. The next shift may need to consider
hoisting the Small Craft Caution flags in the Gulf. A weak
coastal trough is expected to develop and move eastward bring
periods of showers on Wednesday into Thursday. Patchy fog is also
possible Wednesday night and Thursday morning, but conditions do
not appear overly favorable for prolonged stretches of the dense
variety. An Arctic cold front is expected to push into the coastal
waters late Friday or Saturday bringing hazardous marine
conditions: a much colder airmass, strong north winds and
building seas through the weekend. Periods of precipitation are
anticipated through Saturday. Advisories are likely, and Gales
cannot be ruled out. Mariners are advised to keep up with the
latest forecasts. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  63  56  68  55 /   0  30  70  20
Houston (IAH)  67  56  69  60 /   0  20  70  40
Galveston (GLS)  65  59  67  60 /   0  10  70  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Low Water Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CST this
     evening for GMZ335.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion