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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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818
FXUS64 KHGX 140614
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1214 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and thunderstorms likely on Sunday.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms, locally heavy rain, and gusty
  coastal winds will be the primary concerns on Sunday.

- Colder air and strong marine winds expected Sunday night into
  Monday. Gale Watch in the bays and Gulf during this time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1046 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

An active weather pattern is on our doorstep as we step into the
weekend. A deep, W CONUS trough with a negatively tilted axis
extends from the PAC NW into the Four Corners Region. Ahead of
the trough axis is an elongated shortwave that will push through
Texas on Saturday, bringing increased cloud cover and isolated to
scattered showers (especially in our western zones). Meanwhile,
easterly sfc flow is tapping into colder air over SE CONUS,
resulting in a weak CAA regime. This regime, coupled with
increased cloud cover, will likely keep temperatures cooler on
Saturday than previous days. Afternoon temperatures are expected
to average in the 60s, though our southwesternmost zones may still
find themselves reaching the low 70s. Then on Sunday, things
become more interesting.

A strong mid/upper low is expected to cut off from the parent
W CONUS trough. The low should track through the TX Panhandle and
Oklahoma on Sunday. The mid/upper levels will feature a strong,
diffluent jet, creating an increasingly sheared and synoptically
lifted atmosphere. The atmosphere is expected to be prime for LL
cyclogenesis, which is supported by the strong model guidance
consensus depicting a LL low pressure system that tracks
southeast across the Lone Star State on Sunday. The ML/UL forecast
appears relatively straight forward. But things get tricky when
looking at the lower levels.

Let`s start with the aspects of Sunday`s forecast for which we
have relatively high confidence.

1) There is a high chance of widespread shower and thunderstorm
activity on Sunday. 2)There will likely be locally heavy rainfall
capable of localized flooding (especially near the coast). 3)
Strong, gusty winds are expected in our coastal and marine zones
through the weekend and into Monday (likely through at least
Tuesday in the Gulf). 4) The vertical wind profile will be
favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms on Sunday. 5)
Instability parameters on Sunday will favor strong to severe
thunderstorms within the system`s warm sector, ahead of the low`s
associated cold front and south of its warm front.

The uncertainty grows once we start looking at the details of
point #5. There is strong model guidance support that at least
parts of our CWA will find themselves in the warm sector of this
system. But how much of the CWA will be in the warm sector? Will
CAA from the east be enough to suppress the warm front southward,
limiting the favorable severe weather set up to our southwestern
counties, coastal areas, and offshore Gulf zones? Or could WAA
ahead of the strengthening low amplify the warm front northward?
That second scenario would place more of our region within the
warm unstable sector of the system. This is where the forecast
becomes much more uncertain. It`s worth mentioning that this
uncertainty also has huge implications on Sunday`s high
temperatures (steep temperature gradient over short distances).

For now, rain and thunderstorms appear to be a safe bet across
the CWA on Sunday. Our northern Piney Woods zones are most likely
to remain in the chilly airmass, with temperatures holding into
the 50s (and possibly falling into the 40s late in the day). MU
CAPEs coupled with the sheared environment suggest elevated deep
convection north of the warm front is possible. But areas within
the warm sector have the best chance of thunderstorms capable of
large hail, damaging winds, and even tornadoes. Fcst hodographs
suggests discrete convective modes are on the table, which raises
the large hail and tornado concern. So hopefully the set up can
manage to suppress the warm front farther south, limiting the SE
Texas surface area within the warm sector.

The low pulls eastward late Sunday and into Monday. But the
signals in the guidance do not point to a total clearing out on
Monday due to modest isentropic lift over the LL CAA regime in
the low`s wake. Our current forecast shows plenty of clouds,
temperatures in the 50s, and perhaps some lingering showers.
Morning lows Monday and Tuesday are expected to be in the 40s for
most areas north of I-10. Bush and Hobby airports are nearing
their latest first sub 50 degree low of the season. So if they
don`t fall below 50 degrees in this event, then the record will
likely be broken.

Long range guidance points towards a warming trend, with highs in
the 70s by Wednesday and Thursday. Increased moisture from
onshore flow could introduce a low chance of showers by mid/late
week. But for now, the best chance of mid/late week rain appears
to be west of our region. But time will tell.

Self



&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1046 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all sites with a few high clouds, and
light and variable winds. Winds turn to the east later this evening,
and remain light until increasing to the 10-15kt range by the
morning. Tomorrow will be a windy and gusty day at all sites, with
gusts starting as early as sunrise near the coast. Elsewhere, gusts
start in the late morning and persist throughout the TAF period.
Winds remain vastly E through the day, turning slightly more ESE by
tomorrow evening. Elevated winds remain through the overnight hours
tomorrow. Looking ahead, rain chances increase beginning early Sunday
morning; precip will likely be added to the next TAF package.

MLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1046 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Easterly winds and Gulf seas will increase on Saturday as the
gradient steepends between high pressure over E CONUS and an
approaching system from the west. Small Craft Advisory level
conditions are likely across all of our waters by Saturday
evening. Rain and thunderstorm chances increase on Sunday. Ambient
winds are expected to generally be Small Craft Advisory level.
However, gales are likely within stronger thunderstorms. In
addition, we cannot rule out hail and waterspouts on Sunday as
well. Winds will increase from the northeast as the system pulls
eastward Sunday night into Monday. A Gale Watch is in effect
during this time frame for the Gulf and bays due to the prospect
of frequent gusts to gale force (especially over the Gulf). In
addition, bay waters will become rough while offshore Gulf seas
likely top 10 feet. The gradient eases on Tuesday, but Small Craft
Advisory level conditions will likely extend into Tuesday and
possibly Wednesday for the offshore Gulf.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  50  70  51  61 /   0  10  60  90
Houston (IAH)  52  68  54  65 /   0   0  30  90
Galveston (GLS)  64  70  64  73 /   0   0  30  90

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 6 PM CST Sunday for
     GMZ330-350-370.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 PM CST Sunday for
     GMZ335-355-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...MLG
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion