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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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002
FXUS64 KHGX 190520
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1220 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Hot and dry, with lower humidity Saturday.

 - Humidity returns Sunday along with daily diurnal storm chances
   into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Mid/upper ridging overhead and deep dry air will result in a
Saturday that is much like the Friday that fell before it.
Afternoon temperatures should be hot (well into the 90s) with
lower humidity (60s dew points inland). Certainly not Pumpkin
Spice weather. But also not as oppressive as recent weeks.
Unfortunately this will not last, with high humidity and daily
diurnally related isolated shower/thunderstorm chances returning
Sunday. This pattern should hold through at least the middle
portion of the upcoming week. Best chance of a shower and storm
will be in our southern and coastal counties. Afternoon highs
should remain well into the 90s.

Global guidance strongly suggest the development of a deep layer
E CONUS trough. As you may expect, the implications of this trough
would be more strongly felt by our friends back east. However,
there may be a weak backdoor frontal boundary that brings another
round of lower humidity, and perhaps slightly less hot
temperatures, by the end of the week. A plurality of global
ensembles even suggest the air mass will be a tad drier and a tad
less hot than the current air mass. I wouldn`t call it fall-like.
But at least there are signs that we are very slowly heading in
the right direction.


Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites with light and VRB winds.
Winds pick back up and settle out of the ESE tomorrow afternoon.
KCXO has a chance for patchy fog early tomorrow morning, which
should clear out shortly after sunrise. Precipitation chances remain
very minimal tomorrow. KGLS may see a few short lived showers in the
morning/early afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected thru
the TAF period.

MLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Light to moderate east to southeast winds and 2-4 foot Gulf seas
are expected through mid-week. Easterly winds may increase
somewhat later in the result, resulting in a corresponding yet
modest increase in the seas. There will be a daily risk of
isolated showers and thunderstorms for much of the upcoming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  98  72  96  74 /   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)  95  74  94  75 /   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  90  82  91  82 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...MLG
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion