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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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940
FXUS64 KHGX 021909
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
209 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy to areas of fog are possible overnight through early
  morning, mainly south of I-10.

- Hot and relatively dry weather continues this week. Humidity and
  hence, heat indices will gradually increase toward the end of
  the week.

- A daily risk of afternoon isolated to scattered showers and
  storms are expected mainly after midweek.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

We still have a cold front meandering over the region this
afternoon. Latest obs suggest the boundary is extending along the
coast. The influence of the boundary along with the passage of a
weak surface trough over the Coastal Bend resulted in scattered
showers and storms, mainly over the coastal waters this morning.
Most of this activity has weakened pr dissipated with only lingering
showers offshore. The good news about this FROPA is that drier air
continues to filter in behind it. Locations west of the boundary are
experiencing  low humidity this afternoon with sfc dewpoints in the
60s (inland) to low 70s (coastal counties). With afternoon
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, reaching near 100s at a few
locations, heat indices between 100 - 105F can be expected through
early evening with the highest values over the coastal counties.
This boundary will serve as a focus for patchy-to-areas of fog
overnight as it becomes quasi-stationary over the region. Latest
HREF and REFS guidance suggest a 30 to 60 % of probability of fog by
early Monday, with the highest probabilities south of I-10/southwest
counties.

The main mid to upper-trough centered over the the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley will continue to progress east-northeast, lifting the frontal
boundary further north of the area on Monday. As the frontal
boundary slowly lifts north and brings warmer southerly flow and
upper ridging builds back into the region, expect a hot and slightly
humid day. Guidance shows 850mb temperatures in the 20 to 24 degC
range, suggesting sfc temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s.
With dewpoint mixing in the afternoon, peak heat indices will
generally remain in the 100 to 106F range. Little to no rain is
expected; however, with the proximity of the boundary during the
day, an isolated rain/storm or two cannot be ruled out in the
afternoon.

A relatively dry and hot week is expected with near seasonal
temperatures as the ridge remains anchored to our west. Highs
generally be in the mid to upper 90s. Low-level humidity will
gradually increase towards the end of the week, likely pushing heat
indices into the 105 to 109F range. In addition to the continued
heat, a daily risk of isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers
and storms can be expected, manly in the afternoon via seabreeze
interaction.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 525 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Mainly a wind forecast, but the forecast gets a bit more complex
closer to the coast where interactions with a frontal boundary
looks to bring multiple wind shifts. For the northern terminals
(IAH and northward), anticipating just light northerly winds and
VFR conditions to prevail through the afternoon. Further south,
winds start out light and westerly this morning then becoming
northwesterly in the late morning. This will then be followed by a
shift to southerly winds as the front retreats northward. There is
ongoing scattered showers/storms near Matagorda Bay and offshore
early this morning. While we can`t entirely rule out a rogue
shower along the coast throughout the day, the potential is too
low to include any SH/TS mentions in this TAF package.

Winds become light and variable overnight into Monday morning.
It`s worth noting that with low-level moisture increasing
overnight, there is at least some potential for reduced
visibilities due to patchy fog for western areas early Monday
morning. Uncertainty is a bit too high at the moment though to
include any mentions of this in this TAF package.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

A weak frontal boundary will meander over the Upper TX coast this
evening/overnight, before lifting further inland on Monday.
Therefore, expect light to moderate west to northwest winds to
gradually shift to the south to southwest by Monday. Seas will
generally remain into the 2 to 4 ft range through early Monday and
up to 3 ft through the rest of the week. A typical summertime
pattern is anticipated through the week, characterized by
landbreeze (night) and seabreeze (afternoon)
interactions...bringing isolated morning showers that gradually
shift inland during the day.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  72  99  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  77  99  78  98 /   0  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  81  91  82  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion