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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

454
FXUS64 KHGX 260528
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1228 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered rain and storms possible through the day,
  with the best chances arriving late this evening.

- Next storm system moves into the area Tuesday evening into
  Wednesday. Will be monitoring the potential for some localized
  strong storms and heavy rain.

- Less active weather anticipated during the second half of the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026


In the near term, lingering light to moderate showers associated
with outflow boundaries from decaying storms should weaken/taper
off in the next hour or so.

Scattered convective development remains possible during the daytime
hours today, focusing primarily along any remnant boundaries and the
inland-advancing sea breeze. Attention then turns to the next
series of shortwave troughs approaching from the west, as clearly
depicted on current IR satellite imagery. Persistent southerly
surface flow will continue to transport warm and humid air into
the region. PWAT values are forecast to climb back into the
90th-95th percentile of climatology, between 1.8 to 2.0 inches.
This highly moisture rich environment will easily support
scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms, with a risk for
training cells as clusters progress east-northeast. Latest model
guidance indicates a faster progression of this complex compared
to previous runs. Therefore, increasing showers and storms can be
expected as early as this evening, with the highest probabilities
overnight through early Wednesday. Will continue to monitor the
evolution of this MCS as it approaches Southeast Texas. Given
moderate mid-level lapse rates and sufficient deep layer shear
over TX, this system could potentially support strong to damaging
wind gusts. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected, though
localized pockets of 3 to 5 inches will be possible where training
occurs. Weather conditions for Wednesday afternoon/evening remain
highly conditional, depending heavily on the exact timing, path
and any cold-pool evolution of this MCS and its subsequent outflow
boundaries.

By Thursday and persisting into the upcoming weekend, subtle
shortwaves will continue to move across the region, but convection
will transition to a primarily diurnally driven regime. Overall
dynamic support will be minimal, so rainfall totals through the
weekend should remain on the lighter side.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

A few SHRA/TSRA have developed along a line from Burleson to Houston
County in the last hour. These storms are up-and-down in nature, so
prolonged impact to any location is unlikely. However, they are
developing near KCLL and KUTS, so brief impacts to those terminals
are possible to likely, especially KCLL. These storms should taper
off around 03z, though showers may linger until 05-06z. Otherwise,
VFR conditions should prevail through the evening hours. Another
round of MVFR ceilings/visibility are likely tonight, mainly at
terminals along and east/north of I-45/I-10. Highest confidence is
at KCXO, with low to medium confidence of occurrence at KIAH.
Through tomorrow, general southerly to southeast winds take shape,
and a few isolated showers may develop near the coast in the
afternoon with low chances of impact at TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Onshore flow will persist through the week and into the upcoming
weekend. Light south to southeast winds will prevail today,
before becoming moderate late this evening into Wednesday morning.
Caution flags will be possible during this time frame. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms can be expected during the day,
particularly along the coast and over the bays. The best chance
for widespread rain/storms will be late this evening into early
Wednesday as a disturbance moves through from the west. Erratic
winds and building seas will be possible with any strong storms.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  72  80  70  86 /  80  80  30  40
Houston (IAH)  75  82  73  87 /  50  90  30  50
Galveston (GLS)  79  84  77  85 /  40  90  50  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...CG
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion