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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

381
FXUS64 KHGX 200634
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
134 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather and above-normal temperatures will persist, along
  side a 30 to 80 percent chance of patchy fog in the nighttime
  and early mornings.

- A strengthening mid to upper level ridge will bring even hotter
  conditions today through Sunday with temperatures potentially
  reaching record-breaking values (including the first 90-degree
  days of the year at some locations).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Calm weather with unseasonable heat is still expected these next few
days due to surface high pressure and ridging aloft. The upper level
ridge remains over the southwest with midlevel heights topping off
around 590-592 dam. Over our area, these midlevel heights still fall
above the 99th percentile in both the GEFS M-Climate and NAEFS
Climate percentiles, and are expected to remain around there through
the rest of the forecast period. Today, 850mb temperatures will
climb to around 14-18C, reaching upwards of 20C near the 90th to
99th percentile over the weekend based on NAEFS. ECMWF Extreme
Forecast Index (EFI) is still showing values of 0.70-0.95 for max
temperatures through the weekend, with shift of tales values
approaching 1-2 over portions of eastern Texas during this period.
This has been a very persistent signal as we enter a period west-
southeasterly flow with low PWs generally below 0.75 inches.
Unseasonable heat is still expected through the weekend with
afternoon temperatures forecast to be around 10 to 20 degrees above
normal.

The aforementioned ridge should flatten early next week as some
disturbances & impulses track north of the area. A weak cold front
is anticipated to push towards SE Texas as Monday. This features
still looks like it`ll stall out around or just north of our CWA,
but in either such case rain is unlikely. Quiet weather should
continue, though we should see max temperatures decrease slightly
during this period. Signs suggest that temperatures could rise again
near the end of the work week as the ridge aloft strengthens.

Overall warm conditions and slim rain chances are expected through
the forecast period. Lows this morning should be in the 50s/60s,
though afternoon temperatures today through Sunday are expected to
be the hottest in the forecast period, reaching the upper 70s/lower
90s. High temperatures ease down slightly next week, but remain in
the 70s/80s during the afternoon hours. Some isolated lower 90s will
be possible during the later half of the next work week.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR this evening, though it should be noted there are some
controlled burns across the area that could make for some hazy
skies near some terminals for the next several hours (ie UTS, and
any smaller airports in Trinity/Houston Counties). Otherwise,
we`ll be keeping an eye out for some shallow late night fog
development. Coverage should be highest, and visibility lowest,
west of I-45 and along and south of I-10 between about 9-13z. Fog
should burn off fairly quickly after sunrise and after some
SCT010/020 cloud decks in the mid morning, we`ll see skies go
mostly sunny again for the remainder of Saturday with SSW winds
increasing to 10-15kt. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 123 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Light to moderate south-southwest winds and low seas are expected
over the next several days. Rain chances remain slim throughout this
period as high pressure looms in the vicinity. Patchy inland fog
could spillover into portions in the upper bays and channels nightly.
Will also have to monitor for patchy sea fog this weekend.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  88  60  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  86  63  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  77  65  79  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...47
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion