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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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042
FXUS64 KHGX 160327
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1027 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue Wednesday.

 - More widespread showers and thunderstorms Thursday, with highest
   chances along the coast.

 - Hot and humid conditions generally continue into the weekend,
   with highs in the low-to-mid 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1025 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Little change is expected for Wednesday. A broad upper ridge will
slowly shift westward and resultant capping will inhibit any
widespread convective initiation. Latest CAMs indicate some onshore
isolated thunderstorms developing through the morning hours
generally west of San Luis Pass and potentially moving farther
inland by afternoon. In any case, these should not amount to much
and most locations will stay dry. Although there is currently no
Heat Advisory issued, heat indicies will approach the 108F mark,
particularly for areas south and east within the forecast area.
Continue to use caution if engaging in outdoor activities.

After a quiet Wednesday night time frame, a surge of tropical
moisture remains expected to move into the area on Thursday morning.
PWATs are still impressive, generally ranging from 2.1-2.4". This
will lead to more widespread showers and thunderstorms, with highest
chances along the coast and becoming lower as you move northward.
The high moisture parameters persist through the afternoon although
may diminish sooner than models indicate with increased
capping/subsidence due to the aforementioned ridge. Nonetheless
locally heavy downpours are possible most everywhere in the forecast
area. Use caution on the morning/evening commutes. Precipitation
should gradually taper off in the evening as more dry air builds in
from the east.

The dry air will bring some minor relief and conditions will be
slightly less humid on Friday, with heat indicies topping out near
100. The upper ridge will become more elongated from southwest to
northeast and get squeezed in between strengthening low pressure
over Florida and a broad trough encompassing much of the western
half of CONUS. This setup would not even yield much in the way of
diurnal convection and thus a generally quiet albeit another hot and
humid weekend looks to be in store. Precipitation chances may
increase Sunday into next week as the upper ridge begins to
weaken.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Winds will become light this evening with cloud decks lowering to
around 1500-2000ft overnight. Could see some brief instances of
MVFR FLs from patchy fog and CIGs, mainly north of I-10 during the
early morning hours of Wednesday. CIGs/Fog should clear by the
late morning. Isolated showers and perhaps a few storms could
develop during the daytime on Wednesday, though coverage is still
anticipated to be fairly sparse. Best chances for rain will be
along the sea breeze during the mid/late afternoon. Any inland
convection that does develop should tapper off into Wednesday
evening.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1025 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Light SE winds will back to due easterly this morning and increase
to around 15 kts by the afternoon. These will slightly diminish
overnight, before increasing again on Thursday afternoon to around
20 kts. Winds will diminish by Friday to near 15 kts and further
diminish into the weekend. Seas of 2 to 3 ft will gradually build to
4 to 6 ft from west to east on Thursday morning, before slightly
subsiding to 3 to 5 ft Friday morning and further into the weekend.
Isolated-to-scattered thunderstorms remain possible, however are
expected to be much more widespread on Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  99  76  98  77 /   0   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)  96  79  95  79 /  20   0  20  20
Galveston (GLS)  92  84  91  83 /  20   0  20  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AP
AVIATION...03
MARINE...AP

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion