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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

956
FXUS64 KHGX 291713
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1213 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate to major heat risk today, with generally moderate heat
  risk each day through Thursday. Peak heat index values between
  103-108F (39-42C).

- High rip current risk along area beaches through Tuesday
  morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

The SAL has been arriving through the morning hours across southeast
TX. Several sites have started reporting HZ over the last few hours.
In addition, several area webcams reveal hazy conditions. As a
result, opted to add in a mention of haze into the wx grids through
early Tuesday morning. This timing falls in line with the latest
GMAO GEOS dust concentration forecasts. We could see some lingering
hazy conditions on Tuesday but the concentration amounts do not look
to be as high.

The arrival of the SAL and continued subsidence will keep rain
chances limited once again today. With that said, there may be
enough low level moisture along with weak coastal convergence to
warrant a low chance for a shower or two. Coverage will be rather
spotty if anything does develop.

As we head through the remainder the week, the upper level ridge
axis will gradually shift north and east, opening the door for a few
upper level impulses to rotate around the southern periphery of the
ridge. A plume of slightly deeper moisture will move off the Gulf by
mid week. Guidance continues to keep the axis of deeper moisture
just off to our east. With that said, we will see a slight uptick in
rain chances, generally 20-40% during the afternoon hours. Overall,
coverage will be more isolated and largely sea-breeze induced.

The main weather concern continues to be the warm and humid
conditions across the region. High temps will warm into the mid 90s
each day outside of the immediate coast. There won`t be much relief
at night as lows only fall into the mid 70s to low 80s. Peak heat
indices should remain just below advisory criteria, generally 105-
107 degrees. A few sites may briefly hit 108-109 during the
afternoon hours. We will keep an eye on our Heat Advisory potential
for this afternoon. However, the SAL plume may work in our favor, as
enough drier air may mix down to keep peak heat indices in check.
Regardless of headlines, heat-related precautions should still
definitely be taken with a moderate to major heat risk for much
of the area. Peak heat indices in the 103-107 range will continue
to be the norm through most of the upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Currently, patchy MVFR/low level stratus clouds continue to
intermittently impact a handful of terminals this morning. Cloud
bases should lift and erode sometime between 14-16Z this morning,
resulting in prevailing VFR conditions through much of remainder
of the period. Bumped up wind speeds a touch at most TAF sites,
with guidance suggesting sustained southerly winds around 10-15
knots, with occasional to frequent gusts up to 25 knots at the
typical windier sites. Low level stratus/MVFR ceilings may build
back in after sunset and into the overnight hours, but was
forecast confidence was too low to mention MVFR in the TAFs at
this time. Ceilings may need to be added in later amendments or
later routine forecasts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Light to moderate southerly winds will continue through the
remainder of the week. 3 to 5 foot seas today will decrease to 2
to 3 feet by mid- week. Very low rain chances today will increase
into the low and medium range Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  94  76  95 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  78  93  78  95 /   0  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  83  89  83  89 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TC
AVIATION...Mejia
MARINE...TC

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion