Skip to main content.

National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

Related quick links> 5 Day Forecast, Local Advisories, Drought Monitor, UV Forecast, Air Quality Forecast 
435
FXUS64 KHGX 042335
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerously hot conditions expected today. A Heat Advisory
  remains in effect for Harris County for heat indices between
  105-110F (41- 43C) through 7 PM this evening.

- Low (10-20%) shower and thunderstorm chances today and again on
  Sunday. Chance of isolated to scattered sea breeze
  showers/storms increases slightly early next week.

- High pressure builds into the area by midweek, reducing
  precipitation chances for the second half of the workweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Mid-level heights will be maximized over the area today as a mid-
level ridge strengthens and hovers over the Southern High Plains.
This will cause unseasonably warm temperatures this afternoon for
much of the area, especially in and around the Houston metro. With
that said, heat stress and heat exhaustion will continue to be
the primary concerns today and likely through the remainder of the
holiday weekend. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for inland and
coastal Harris County through 7 PM this evening. Despite the
strengthening ridge, enough low-level moisture and lift will still
support isolated seabreeze showers and thunderstorms (10-20%
chance) through this afternoon, though overall coverage should be
much more limited than previous days. Main impacts with seabreeze
activity will be brief heavy downpours and cloud-to-ground
lightning. For outdoor activity purposes today/tonight, any
convection that develops this afternoon should be winding down by
or before sunset. Otherwise, no weather impacts are expected
this evening and overnight tonight.

The mid-level ridge begins to retrograde over far west Texas and
the Dessert Southwest beginning tonight. Simultaneously, an
elongated trough, with embedded shortwave troughs, will eject off
the Rockies and slide over the Plains/Midwest Region late tonight,
Sunday, and into Monday. Majority of the precipitation associated
with this trough looks to stay north and east of the forecast
area through this time period. However, models and ensembles show
the southern periphery of this trough extending over southeast
Texas through the first half of the upcoming workweek.
Unfortunately, it does not look like there will be very much
relief from the summer-like temperatures and apparent
temperatures. Low precipitation chances (10-30%) are forecast to
continue from Sunday through at least Tuesday, with chances
peaking each afternoon with seabreeze activity. The weak troughing
aloft will begin lifting northward on Wednesday and ridging will
build right back into the area for the latter half of the week.
This will result in mostly unseasonably hot and dry weather, with
additional heat headlines possibly needed for at least some
portions of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

With the seabreeze almost clearing through the Houston metro at
the time of the TAF update, the best chances for isolated showers,
with even lower chances for mentionable TS. TEMPO groups have
been removed for all terminals, but with some showers W of KSGR
and the seabreeze approaching KDWH, we`ll monitor radar trends to
see if any amendments will be needed. Otherwise, VFR conditions
prevail through the TAF period. Given the lighter winds overnight,
brief MVFR VIS reductions will be possible from 09-13Z with SW`ly
winds after sunrise. After 21Z, most winds will be out of the S at
5-10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Generally light onshore flow will persist through the remainder of
the weekend and into early next week. Overall, Gulf seas are
expected to average 1 to 3 feet. Isolated coastal and Gulf showers
will be possible each morning, with a chance of isolated
thunderstorms along the sea breeze in the afternoon. Winds and
seas begin to increase by the middle to later part of next week,
with a gradually steepening pressure gradient. Onshore winds are
forecast to increase to 10 to 15 knots by Tuesday and Wednesday,
before increasing further to the 15 to 20 knot range by Thursday.
Seas may increase to 3 to 4 feet by the end of the upcoming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  97  78  96 /   0   0  10  10
Houston (IAH)  79  97  79  96 /  10  10  10  20
Galveston (GLS)  83  91  83  90 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ213-313.

GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mejia
AVIATION...Enriquez
MARINE...Mejia

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion