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708
FXUS64 KHGX 230634
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1234 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog overnight into Friday morning.

- An Arctic front pushes through late Friday night/Saturday,
  bringing various winter hazards over the weekend:
    - Extended periods of below freezing temperatures along with
      hard freezes for parts of the area Saturday night, Sunday
      night, and Monday night. (Extreme Cold Watch in effect
      Saturday evening thru Monday)
    - Low wind chill values, near to below 0 in the Brazos Valley
      and the Piney Woods.
    - Freezing Rain/Sleet with hazardous to significant ice
      accumulations leading to hazardous road conditions (Winter
      Storm Watch in effect for most of SE Texas Saturday thru
      Sunday afternoon).
    - Hazardous marine conditions.

- Residents are encouraged to winterize their home and make plans
  to keep themselves and loved ones warm during the work week
  prior to the arrival of the Arctic air.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Now that we`re entering the range of high-resolution model guidance,
there are a few new things to discuss. The overall theme of the AFD
will remain the same as the previous nights. We`ll dive head-first
into discussing the latest deterministic and ensemble model guidance
to see if there`s a bit more clarity into the winter weather
potential (spoiler alert: quite a bit of uncertainty remains). We`ll
also discuss how the frontal timing being a bit later may lead to
some interesting conditions along the coast on Saturday and how that
impacts timing of a precipitation changeover to freezing rain/sleet.
All of that is the why and the how of the forecast. Since there are
a lot of eyes on this forecast (deservedly so), there will be two
additional sections where we`ll discuss how does the forecast impact
you and what you can do to prepare for extremely cold temperatures
and potential winter weather. You still have all day Friday...and
for parts of the area you have at least half of Saturday as well to
finalize and enact your prep plans to stay safe and warm.


Sciency Jargon (Why and How?)
-----------------------------

Driving home just after midnight on Thursday morning was quite
interesting with plenty of dense fog around. I mention that because
another repeat is anticipated overnight into Friday morning. Winds
are becoming light, dew point depressions are already near 1 degree
and won`t be getting any higher. Our normal low temperature for this
time of the year is in the low to mid 60s...our low temperature
overnight into Friday morning will be mainly in the mid 50s to low
60s. High temperatures on Friday afternoon will vary quite a bit
depending on where you are. This is because of an Arctic cold front
that will begin pushing into portions of the Piney Woods on Friday
afternoon leading to high temperatures in this region to be in the
upper 50s to low 60s. Elsewhere, high temperatures will range from
the mid 60s to low 70s. While that`s occuring, PW values will be on
the rise as moisture converges ahead of the front paired with a
strengthening LLJ over northern areas leading to a gradual increase
in rain coverage over the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods Friday night.

Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on a slower FROPA, which
doesn`t push to the coast until at least Saturday morning (some
model guidance indicates as late as Saturday afternoon). Friday
night`s temperatures remain subject to change though if the front
moves in quicker than anticipated, which can happen with these
shallow Arctic airmasses. A slower FROPA combined with a coastal
trough developing down in South TX creates some interesting
thunderstorm potential on Saturday. In this scenario, areas along
the coast may find themselves in a warm sector Saturday morning
complete with an axis of instability and theta-e ridging. A 30-40 kt
LLJ will be overhead as well, so there will be plenty of shear to
work with. This indeed means that there is some potential for strong
thunderstorms south of I-10 on Saturday morning. Some of the 00Z
CAMs are onboard with this scenario as they bring a MCS through our
western areas on Saturday morning where the front runs into the
coastal trough. This strong storm potential is also important to
note because moderate to heavy rain can wash away the solutions on
pre-treated roadways, which makes it less effective. Texas can`t
beat the allegations of wild weather swings if we go from strong
storms in the morning to winter weather in the evening...

These storms and the subsequent precipitation that lingers into
Sunday are brought courtesy of an upper level low that as of right
now (very late Thursday night) is off of the coast of California. It
will push southeastward into the Baja Peninsula on Friday, then move
into northern Mexico on Saturday, and finally become embedded in the
flow aloft and drift into Texas Saturday night into Sunday. There
remains some uncertainty on exactly how progressive this upper level
low will be, but we remain confident that there will be
precipitation Saturday into Sunday. The uncertainty lies in what
KIND of precipitation will be falling. After the initial wave of
moderate to heavy rainfall, model guidance still reflects some mid
level dry air infiltrating between generally in 500-700mb range,
which just so happens to impact moisture availability in the
dendritic growth zone. Even though model guidance is reflecting a
dry period, there looks to be enough moisture above the surface to
at least get some drizzle/light precipitation. As the LLJ expands
southward along with the embedded upper level low sliding in and
favorable upper level divergence, precipitation will become
widespread Saturday evening into Sunday afternoon.

The question that ALL of us are still trying to figure out is how
far south does the freezing line move while precipitation is
occuring. Looking through model guidance is pretty much the
equivalent of shaking a magic 8 ball and asking what`s going to
happen. One model will say "signs point to yes" and another will say
"ask again later". One degree makes a big difference and literally
each model has a different outcome. We do have high confidence that
there will NOT be snow though, but you could argue that as the
temperature column continues to cool on Sunday morning (would need
some wet bulbing assistance as well) that a few flurries could mix
in over the Piney Woods at the tail-end of the precip window. In
uncertain situations like this, we like to take a look at things
probabilistically. The probability for freezing rain/sleet is
highest for the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods, and this
changeover could occur as early as Saturday midday. These areas have
the greatest potential for accumulating ice with most likely amounts
near 0.25". In a reasonable worst case scenario, we could see 0.25-
0.5" of ice accumulations in this region. We`ll discuss what kind of
impacts this can cause in the next section.

The potential for freezing rain extends further south through the
Houston metro area towards the coast with a window from late
Saturday night through Sunday morning. The most likely amounts are
closer to trace amounts, but even trace amounts can create hazardous
conditions especially on elevated roadways. A reasonable worst case
scenario (if sub-freezing temperatures move in quicker than
expected) would bring 0.10-0.20" of ice accumulations down towards
the coast. Don`t hold these exact values to heart, but I do want you
to notice the variance between those two scenarios...that`s why a
vast amount of uncertainty remains. It`s all going to be a matter of
how quickly the sub-freezing temperatures move in and will they
overlap with precipitation. While we`re talking about this, I also
want to point out that there is potential for locally enhanced
precipitation due to frontogenetic banding on Sunday morning. Heavy
enough precipitation would increase the temperatures a bit, but
there is potential for a band of moderate to heavy rain or freezing
rain...which is reflected by some of the high-res QPF guidance. A
Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for most of Southeast TX
Saturday through Sunday afternoon. Once we get more confidence as we
get more high-resolution model guidance to look at, then we`ll
decide on what winter weather products will follow the watch and if
there will be any additions or subtractions of counties.

As a matter of fact, there`s a way for y`all to help us out in this
event. Well first thing`s first, make sure your family and friends
are well aware of the forecast. Next, there`s an app called mPING
that you can download on your smartphone. This app gives you the
ability to submit what type of precipitation is falling at your
location. This will be most important during the Saturday night to
Sunday morning timeframe and would help us keep track of exactly
where the transition line of rain to freezing rain is. Now we`re not
asking anyone to put themselves in any danger and get out on the
road to submit reports. These reports can be sent from the comfort
of your home. Thanks in advance for your assistance! o7

Remember that extremely cold temperatures are also a hazard, and I
saved this part of the discussion for last so that it`s fresh on
your mind following the winter precip talk. Last night we talked
about how it`s typical for model guidance to trend slightly warmer a
few days out ahead of these shallow Arctic airmasses and then it
trends back colder again. Guess which way the models trended
tonight...colder! Multiple nights of sub-freezing temperatures are
anticipated with a widespread hard freeze Sunday night and Monday
night. Northern areas will also see a hard freeze on Saturday night.
Low temperatures will range from the single digits to the low 20s,
and that`s just the air temperature. When you factor in the
northerly breeze, it`ll feel like its below 0 in the Brazos Valley
and the Piney Woods and the single digits to the low teens
elsewhere. This is mainly for Sunday night into Monday morning.
Lighter winds on Monday night will make the wind chill less of a
factor. However, it`ll still be VERY cold with lows ranging from the
single digits to the low 20s.

I want to point our attention to the daytime highs on Sunday and
Monday for our northern locations. On Sunday, the Brazos Valley and
the Piney Woods will not get above freezing. This means that any ice
that has accumulated will remain in place going into at least
Monday. Along the I-10 corridor, it`s questionable on if there`s a
brief rise above freezing or remaining below freezing throughout the
day...with the anticipated ice amounts to our north, I`d lean
towards the colder side of guidance. This means the Houston metro
area will be flirting right in the 32-34 degree range. Northerly
winds blowing over accumulated ice generally leads to colder
temperatures...yep that makes sense. High temperatures on Monday for
portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods will likely remain
below freezing AGAIN. This means that some of these areas will
likely remain below freezing from Saturday afternoon through
Tuesday...that`s 65-70+ consecutive hours of below freezing
temperatures. Even if temperatures rise above freezing on Sunday in
and south of the metro area, any remaining wet surfaces will
refreeze overnight into Monday morning.

As a result of all of the above, an Extreme Cold Watch remains in
effect for all of SE Texas Saturday evening into Monday. Cold
temperatures prevail throughout the week with most locations
continuing to see freezing temperatures overnight (20s/30s) and
highs in the 40s/50s. Additionally, we are looking at another
frontal passage around midweek as well, but for now our eyes remain
firmly pointed at Friday`s front. We`ll worry about next weekend
later. By now, you should have a firm grasp on why the forecast is
what it is and why uncertainty remains in the picture even this
close to the event. Now let`s talk about how this will impact you.


How Does This Impact You?
-------------------------

Brazos Valley/Piney Woods:

Like we did above, we`ll start with the ice potential and save the
extremely cold temperature discussion for the tail-end as we really
want y`all to pay attention to that aspect of the forecast too. The
best potential for accumulating ice will be generally north of I-10,
especially for portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods.
This changeover to freezing rain could occur as early as Saturday
midday, but is most likely Saturday afternoon. Something to note is
that the initial rain before this transition to freezing rain could
limit the effectiveness of the pre-treated roads. This means that
hazardous travel conditions will be a concern in this region. That`s
not even accounting for the changeover to sleet early Sunday
morning. In the section above, we talked about most likely ice
accumulations being around 0.25". These ice accumulations may
result in weather-related power outages. Additionally, pine trees in
the Piney Woods still have their needles so they would be more
susceptible to ice accumulations. If enough ice accumulates on them,
then we could see large branches and/or trees falling over in this
area. Be sure to have a plan in place on how to keep you and your
loved ones warm if a power outage occurs. Temperatures in the Brazos
Valley and the Piney Woods are not expected to rise above freezing
on Sunday or Monday afternoon, so road conditions will likely be
hazardous Saturday afternoon through Tuesday morning.

Multiple nights of extremely cold temperatures are expected Saturday
night through at least Monday night. Low temperatures on these
nights will fall into the single digits and teens. When you factor
in the northerly winds, it`ll feel like below 0 for most of the area
with wind chill values between -5 and 3 degrees on Sunday night.
Winds will be light on Monday night, so it won`t feel quite as cold
but still VERY cold with low temperatures in the single digits and
teens. It`s very important that you winterize your home in this
region. Pipes may freeze and burst if not properly insulated and
protected. Remember that portions of this area may remain below
freezing from Saturday afternoon through Tuesday. If you plan on
being outdoors in the evening to early morning hours during this
period, be sure to dress in layers and protect yourself from the
elements. If you would feel uncomfortable sleeping outside in these
conditions, don`t make your pets do it either. Don`t forget about
your plants too.


Houston Metro Area and Southward:

This region is tricky when it comes to the freezing rain aspect of
the forecast. The freezing rain potential is definitely there for
areas generally along and north of the I-10 corridor, but we can`t
entirely rule out freezing rain occuring all the way down to the
coast. Since lots of uncertainty remains on how far south the
freezing line gets, we`ll keep this kind of general. Our main
concern in this area is for elevated surfaces that freeze overnight
into Sunday morning. This may create hazardous travel conditions
over bridges, overpasses, and other elevated roadways, so it`ll be
important to check road conditions before traveling during the
Saturday night to Monday morning timeframe. For Sunday afternoon,
the Houston metro area may or may not briefly rise above freezing.
Keep up to date with the forecast for the latest information and
check road conditions before hitting the roadways. The period of
cold rain will be longer in this area, and remember that there is
potential for a round of strong storms on Saturday morning well
before a potential transition to freezing rain. So, the
effectiveness of the pre-treated roads may be inhibited (mainly a
concern for elevated roadways). Additionally, remember that in a
reasonable worst case scenario that we could see ice accumulations
around 0.1-0.2" in this region, so monitoring road conditions is a
must if this occurs. Even a trace amount of ice creates hazardous
travel conditions.

While we aren`t anticipating low temperatures in the single digits
in this area, it is still very important to remember that even low
temperatures in the upper teens to mid 20s can be hazardous. Wind
chill values on Sunday night will be in the single digits, so it`ll
still be dangerously cold. This is especially true if you don`t take
the proper steps to winterize your home and insulate your pipes.
Pipes may freeze and burst if not properly insulated and protected.
If you plan on being outside in the evening to morning hours over
the weekend into Monday, be sure to layer up and protect yourself
from the cold. Don`t forget about your pets and your plants as well.

How Can You Prepare?
--------------------

There is still at least a full day to prepare for the upcoming
hazardous weather conditions. If you have a plan in place and have
already winterized your home, you get a gold star! If you don`t have
a plan, now is a good time to make one. Be sure to know the hazards
of heating your home especially in the event of a power outage.
Ensure that generators are only used outdoors and away from windows,
and make sure that you have a carbon monoxide detector (with fresh
batteries) as well. Never use a gas stove to warm your home and
never plug a space heater into anything other than directly into an
outlet. Make sure your family and friends are aware of the forecast
and that they have plans to stay safe and warm as well.

For additional winter safety information, visit `ready.gov` and
you`ll see a section titled "Winter Ready" right at the top of the
page where you can find all of the information above and more.
Taking a few steps now to prepare makes a big difference.
Follow the motto: be prepared and stay informed.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 530 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Low ceilings will continue overnight and for much of Friday.
Any isolated lower end MVFR cigs out there right now, should
transition back down into IFR territory in the not too distant
future. Also anticipate some lower vsby fog, that`s currently
lingering near Galveston to expand inland. LIFR cigs/vis cannot be
ruled out for the majority of SE TX. And like today, just very
modest improvement heading into the afternoon. In terms of precip,
guidance is showing an uptick in potential very light rain
(more likely drizzle from about 13z and beyond). I didn`t include
this mention in the TAFs attm, but will evaluate model trends
overnight for possible inclusion in later TAF packages.  47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1234 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Light easterly to east-southeasterly winds will continue through the
night along with periods of sea fog. Sea fog persisted in waves
through the afternoon on Thursday and there is potential the same
could occur overnight into Friday. Sea fog will become increasingly
widespread overnight into Friday morning and will be dense at times.
A Marine Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect through Friday morning
and may need to be extended. There is potential for another round of
sea fog Friday night into Saturday, but may be inhibited by the
elevated winds. There is potential for a round of storms on
Saturday morning ahead of an approaching front that may lead to
locally higher winds and seas.

An Arctic cold front pushes offshore Saturday morning with strong
northerly winds prevailing in its wake through the weekend. Small
Craft Advisories will be needed for this period with sustained winds
in the 25-30 kt range and elevated seas in the 8-11 ft range. Gale
force gusts cannot be ruled out. Widespread precipitation is
expected late Friday into Sunday afternoon ahead of and in the wake
of the front. A few thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday ahead
of the front. Precipitation continues into Saturday night and Sunday
afternoon with the potential for freezing rain in and around the
bays Sunday morning. Additionally, we`ll monitor for the potential
for periods of abnormally low water levels in the bays during low
tide cycles over the weekend and into early next week, so be sure to
stay up to date with the latest forecasts.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  66  37  45  21 /  60  90 100  90
Houston (IAH)  68  49  54  28 /  30  70 100 100
Galveston (GLS)  65  56  60  34 /  20  60 100 100

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday
     afternoon for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-
     300-313.

     Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning
     for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-
     313-335>338-436>439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ330-
     335-350-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion