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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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358
FXUS64 KHGX 051129
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
629 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm, largely quiet weather today.

- Weak cold front pushes towards the region Wednesday afternoon
  and should initiate some scattered showers and thunderstorms. A
  few could be strong to severe north of I-10.

- Scattered showers and storms daily Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1107 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Expect warm and benign weather to continue today. Lows in the
morning will be pretty warm, only dropping into the mid 60s/lower
70s with cloudy skies overhead. Cloud cover scatters out in the late
afternoon with highs forecasted to reach the upper 70s/upper 80s.
Weak impulses passing aloft could bring a stray shower or two, but
otherwise rain chances will be sparse.

A period of more active weather is still set for Wednesday as a
mid/upper trough sweeps across the Rockies/Plains, sending a cold
front towards SE Texas. Deep moisture will be present with PWs
reaching 1.7-2.0. Decent shear and instability for some stronger
storms will be present, though the environment will be slightly
capped. With afternoon heating, this cap should weaken to some
extent. The full extent to which that cap erodes varies by model,
though by in large capping looks to be weaker across the Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods area. CAMs are still bear on convection for
Wednesday, only showing light showers throughout much of the area
with the latest suite of guidance. Storms are more likely to develop
along the cold front, though timing is still fairly uncertain, with
models generally trending slower. SPC maintains a Slight (level 2/5)
Risk of severe weather over SE Texas on Wednesday, mainly for areas
north of I-10.

The aforementioned cold front should push be off the coast by late
Thursday morning, allowing cooler and breezy wx to briefly develop
in it`s wake. However, lingering moisture and a series of impulses
from an approaching shortwave trough/low over the desert southwest
will maintain rain chances throughout Thursday. Onshore winds should
return on Friday, facilitating WAA and additional moisture return.
This will maintain rain chances through the weekend into early next
week.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

SCT to BKN CIGs around 2000-3000ft will continue through the mid-
morning hours before VFR becoming predominate across the region.
South-southeasterly winds around 9-13kt with gusts to 20-25kt
possible this afternoon. The southerly winds persists into
tonight, though dropping to 7-10kt. MVFR conditions return to the
region late this evening, between 4-8z, and we may see some SCT
lower clouds around 700ft begin to develop by daybreak Wednesday.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1107 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

South to southeast winds of 15 to 20 knots will prevail through mid
week, prompting caution flags at times. Showers and storms are
expected on Wednesday as the next cold front pushes through with
some stronger storms possible. The front should push off the coast
some time between Wednesday night and late Thursday morning.
Anticipate moderate north to northeast winds on Thursday behind the
front. Onshore winds quickly return by Friday with rain chances
continuing into the weekend.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  86  74  85  64 /   0   0  50  30
Houston (IAH)  86  75  87  72 /   0   0  50  30
Galveston (GLS)  82  76  83  74 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion