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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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934
FXUS64 KHGX 291148
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
648 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some patchy fog possible overnight and early morning hours.

- Slightly drier air briefly moves in from the east today.

- Rain chances return Friday through the weekend as moisture
  levels increase and a few upper level disturbances pass through.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

With lingering low-lvl moisture and light, variable winds,  patchy
fog will be possible through the early morning hours, particularly
over the Brazos Valley area. Rain chances diminish today as a drier
air mass filters in from the east. However, PW values will remain
somewhat elevated across our far western counties; combined with
weak impulses of energy aloft, a few light showers will remain
possible in those areas. Given the abundant cloud cover, today`s
highs will generally remain the low 80s.

Moisture influx strengthens again on Friday as disturbances aloft
move north-northeastward across the region. This will support
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, with the best chances
confined to areas west of the I-45 corridor. Rain chances continue
overnight Friday and become more widespread on Saturday as PW values
surge into the 1.5 to 1.9 inch range. Most of this activity should
gradually taper off by early Saturday evening as the main mid/upper
lvl shortwaves lift out of the region.

Rain and storm chances decrease by Sunday thanks to increasing
subsidence aloft associated with a building upper-lvl ridge to our
west. Attention then turns to early next week as a deepening
longwave trough traverses the western CONUS. Deterministic models
and ensemble means continue to show a spread regarding the
evolution, strength and timing of this system and its associated
FROPA. The most progressive guidance brings the front through early
Tuesday, whereas slower solutions (like the ECMWF) delay the front
until late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Given this uncertainty, the
exact timing as well as any thunderstorm or severe weather potential
across Southeast Texas remains unclear at this time. Regardless of
timing differences, a FROPA appears likely next week, bringing rain
chances followed by slightly cooler conditions in its wake. Specific
details will become clearer as guidance comes into better agreement
in future forecast updates.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the period.
Winds will be out of the ESE through the day today, becoming light
and variable overnight. Light showers may skirt the western
terminals through the day today; however, not expecting
significant impacts.

Bailey

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Persistent easterly to southeasterly flow will continue at least
through Saturday, leading to occasional moderate onshore winds and
seas in the 3 to 4 ft range. A few light showers possible today, but
the best chances arrive Friday and Saturday as different weak
disturbances move through the region. Winds become more
southeasterly after Sunday and may become moderate at times. Will
continue to monitor conditions next week as elevated winds and
building seas will be possible ahead of a FROPA possibly arriving in
the Tuesday into Wednesday time frame.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  82  63  79  63 /  20  10  20  30
Houston (IAH)  83  65  81  67 /  10   0  20  20
Galveston (GLS)  80  71  79  71 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion