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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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533
FXUS64 KHGX 191159
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
659 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot weather is on tap this week.

- Conditions will be less humid today through Tuesday. Increasing
  heat index values during the second half of the work week as
  humidities increase.

- Rain chances will remain slim. Perhaps an isolated shower or two
  later in the week...but most locations should remain dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Ridging, both at the surface and aloft will dominate area weather
this week. Today through Tuesday, a dry column of air should remain
in place (PW`s < 1.5"). This should allow dewpoints to mix out each
afternoon and keep RH`s and heat indexes in check. That said, with
surface high pressure situated in the northwest Gulf, we should
start out most days with low level sw winds which will allow
temps to heat up fairly quickly - into the mid 90s again today
then 95-100F during the work week.

It appears that a portion of the mid level troffiness across the
eastern Gulf breaks off and slides under the ridge toward the
western Gulf Coast toward midweek. Most deterministic data suggests
this axis should be suppressed offshore and along the mid Tx-Mexico
coast, but it should bring some higher moisture levels along the
northern periphery here locally. It`s still worth keeping up with
the latest NHC thinking with this area of unsettled wx considering
there remains a subset of AI/TC/ensemble guidance suggesting some
potential for development. Right now, however, one of the main
concerns here in SE Tx looks to be the increased heat indices as
PW`s/RH`s increase Wed-Friday. There may be a non-zero rain chance
during this period, though most of us probably won`t see anything
of significance considering the subsidence aloft.

Heading into the weekend, the mid level ridge to our north further
strengthens and H5 heights increase to 594-597dm in our region.
So the heat doesn`t appear to be leaving us anytime soon. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 654 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

LIFR conditions ongoing at DWH with IFR VSBYs ongoing at CXO.
CLL/LBX/SGR all at MVFR due to CIGs and/or VSBYs. Expect
improvement to VFR at all sites around mid-morning with VFR
prevailing through the day. Winds will be out of the S at 5-10
kts. Another round of patchy fog anticipated overnight into Monday
morning, and could bring widespread MVFR conditions with more fog
prone terminals potentially dropping to IFR/LIFR

Bailey

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Favorable marine conditions are anticipated into midweek. Surface
high pressure will be situated across the northwest Gulf. Southwest
winds late at night and in the mornings should become more southerly
in the afternoon and evenings as the seabreeze pushes inland.
Speeds will generally be in the 8-15kt range...highest at night in
the Gulf, and in the afternoons and evenings in the bays.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  95  74  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  96  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  91  81  92  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion