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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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268
FXUS64 KHGX 162341
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
641 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely scattered shower / thunderstorm expected today. Locally
  heavy storms cannot be ruled out.

- A more typical summertime pattern is expected this weekend and
  into next week with even lower (if any) rain chances.

- Heat will build this weekend into next week, possibly reaching
  Heat Advisory criteria by Tuesday. Some uncertainty regarding
  humidity levels.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Southeast Texas remains under the influence on of an area of low
pressure over West Central Texas. However, the disturbance`s hold
on our atmosphere has waned since yesterday. High PWATs thanks to
deep LL S to SE flow from the Gulf have kept the atmosphere soupy,
while mesoscale forcings like the sea breeze boundary and
convergence along a stalled boundary remain in place. Mid/upper
high pressure is building from the east, acting as a limiting
factor to shower/thunderstorm coverage. However, this ridge is
unlikely to be suppressive enough to prevent at least widely
scattered shower / thunderstorm activity today. As of noon, we are
seeing isolated activity develop along and west of the Brazos
River. This should be unsurprising to anyone who has taken a look
at our PWATs, which are highest in our western zones. There`s also
a little more PVA to work with in our western counties. But the
other aforementioned mesoscale forcings could allow for convective
initiation farther east. So like previous days, we expect diurnal
shower/thunderstorm activity. But unlike previous days, the
coverage should be less. Ridging builds further on Friday. But the
guidance is still showing a convective initiation signal,
particularly along sea / bay breeze boundaries. With enough of an
easterly component in the bay breeze, there could be some
enhanced shower / thunderstorm activity where convergence
maximizes at the bay breeze - sea breeze interface.

Ridging becomes more dominate as time progresses towards the
weekend and beyond. This will yield to lower rain chances and
higher temperatures. Expect seasonably hot conditions this
weekend, with inland high temperatures averaging in the mid-90s
and heat indices around 105F. Urban and coastal areas will
struggle to drop below 80 at night. The furnace cranks a little
more going into next week. Current blend in our temperature grids
shows widespread upper-90s by Tuesday/Wednesday, with even a few
hot spots reaching 100 degrees. Heat indicies may be near Heat
Advisory criteria by then (108-110F). This will be somewhat
dependent on dew points. Current forecast shows afternoon dew
points mixing down to the low-70s (inland-most areas upper-60s,
immediate coast mid-70s). Sometimes the guidance can underestimate
mixing and overestimate dew points. The air aloft could be
particularly dry on Sunday-Monday (maybe Tuesday) if the global
models are correct regarding a "blob" of low 925-700 MB RH that
surges in from the east. So we can`t rule out a slightly drier
heat than currently predicted. But the heat will be dangerous
regardless. Even normal SE Texas July heat is dangerous.
Practicing heat safety will be a must.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Iso-sct showers and storms will continue to push across SE Texas
through this evening and dissipate gradually as diurnal heating
and instability decreases. IFR-MVFR cigs/vis and VRB winds at
around 10-15 KTS with gusts up to 25 KTS are possible in storms.
Otherwise, expect winds to gradually decrease this evening,
relaxing to 5 KTS or less tonight into early Fri morning. Mostly
VFR conditions are expected throughout the nighttime hours,
however, some sites could see MVFR cigs early Fri morning for a
few hours along with isolated areas of patchy fog. Fog, if any is
expected to burn off around 14-15Z and cigs will gradually lift
and scatter out shortly after sunrise. Winds will be S-SE at 5-10
KTS on Fri.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Through Saturday, expect south to southeast winds 10-15 knots.
Winds could be a little higher at times, especially at night.
Isolated shower or thunderstorm possible today. Through the rest
of the forecast, we cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm
offshore during the overnight and very early morning hours. Winds
early next week are expected to remain roughly 10-15 knots and
assume a more diurnal pattern, with southerly winds during the day
and southwesterly winds at night. Seas should generally average
2-4 feet, though may decrease to the 1-3 foot range next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  90  75  91 /  20  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  78  93  78  94 /  20  20   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  84  90  84  90 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion