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301
FXUS64 KHGX 012308
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
608 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch in effect through tonight. Showers and thunderstorms
  expected through this evening. Rainfall heavy at times. A few
  stronger thunderstorms capable of hail. Thunderstorms capable of
  strong winds and possible waterspouts near the coast/offshore.

- Gale Warning in effect for the Bays and Gulf through midday
  Saturday. Winds and seas to become very hazardous for mariners.

- After a significant cool down this weekend, expect a gradual
  warm-up during the first half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Waves of precipitation, and some embedded strong storms, will
continue moving west-to-east across the region into the late
evening hours. Highest rain totals so far have been just north of
a Columbus-Kingwood line where a corridor of 3-5" has been
observed. This will be the highlighted region to look out for
additional heavy rain as it`ll be more prone to runoff and cause
some potential street flooding issues and watershed rises (see
hydro section below). Southern parts of the area will also be
prone to some isolated embedded strong-severe cells. Hail will be
the primary threat, though some strong winds and waterspouts are
possible closer to the coast/offshore. This system should
eventually push off to our east into La after about 10pm-midnight
CDT. Rain will taper off and be replaced by cool and breezy
conditions.

Rest of the weekend looks great with lows in the 50s, highs in
the 70s, and low RH`s. Onshore flow resumes early next week and
we`ll see a gradual warming/moistening trend. By Wednesday, we
should see enough available moisture for some shra/tstm
development ahead of our next front which should be pushing into
the area in the afternoon and nighttime period.  47

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Numerous SHRA continue across SE TX. Expect brief periods of 1-3SM
visibilities in the heavier showers. The SHRA is expected to end
from west to east in the 02-05Z time frame. One last band of
heavier TSRA will impact KLBX/KGLS between 00Z and 02Z accompanied
by wind gusts to 30 kts and reduced visibilities. Have only
mentioned thunder in these TAFs. MVFR/IFR ceilings will persist
overnight but skies are expected to clear out 10-15Z. North winds
15-25 kts are expected for the Houston terminals this evening and
again Saturday morning. Will see frequent gusts to 30 kts at
KGLS. Winds should decrease area wide late Saturday. 35

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Waves of storms will continue moving across the coastal waters
between now and about 11pm CDT before moving off to the east.
Storms could be strong at times...with high winds, hail, and
waterspouts all a possibility in association with the more intense
cells. North northeast winds will continue to increase and 30
knot gusts are beginning to be observed early this afternoon.
Winds and seas will continue increasing as we head into the
evening and overnight and a Gale Warning remains in effect for the
upper Texas coastal waters. Sustained winds closer to 30 knots
with gusts to or slightly above 40 knots will be possible.
Conditions should begin to slowly improve Saturday afternoon and
evening. Light to moderate onshore flow returns by late Sunday
into Monday. Our next front is penciled in for late Wednesday. 47

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Widespread 1 to 3 inches of rainfall has fallen in the last 12 hours
with a swath of 3 to 5 inches observed from northern Colorado County
to northern Harris County. Soils are primed as additional waves of
showers and thunderstorms will continue to produce rain rates of 1
to 2+ inches per hour through the evening hours. Localized flooding
is possible where there is training of cells or short bursts of
higher intensity rainfall. As a result, the Flood Watch continues
through 4AM tomorrow morning.

As far as the rivers go, rises to action stage are forecast but
cannot entirely rule out isolated instances of minor flood stage
depending on where the most rainfall accumulates. Remember that you
can monitor updated river forecasts via the NWS NWPS webpage
(https://water.noaa.gov/) and as always do not drive through any
flooded roadways. Turn Around, Don`t Drown.

KLG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  52  73  53  77 /  70   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  55  75  54  79 /  90   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  61  75  66  76 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch from midnight tonight to 4 AM CDT Saturday for
     TXZ164-176>179-195>199.

     Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ200-210>213-226-227-
     300-313.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ330-335-
     350-355-370-375.

     Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-
     375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...35
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion