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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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294
FXUS64 KHGX 280544
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1244 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate to major heat risk daily through early next week. Peak
  heat index values between 103-107F (39-42C) through Tuesday.

- High rip current risk along area beaches through Monday

- Low to moderate rain chances return towards the middle of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

id-lvl ridging will continue to shift eastward into the Mississippi
Valley today before shifting further northeastward into the Ohio
Valley and eventually the Mid-Atlantic in the mid to late week
period. Despite the ridge axis gradually distancing itself from the
area, its subsidence inversion and associated mid-lvl dry air will
remain stubbornly in place today and Monday, keeping precip chances
limited to maybe a couple rogue showers. Additionally the long-
advertised SAL plume will reach the area late this afternoon with
dust concentrations peaking on Monday which will further suppress
rain chances. It remains to be seen if the SAL will have any impact
on air quality Monday (this far west it often remains aloft) but
skies will become hazier.

By mid to late week the ridge will have shifted far enough northeast
of the area to allow some moisture to filter in from the east along
its southern periphery. However, guidance is coming into better
agreement that the best moisture and lift looks to focus around a
weak upper-lvl disturbance which is progged to track north and east
of the area. Consequently rain chances Wednesday-Friday may be
limited to isolated sea-breeze induced activity with fcst PoPs only
in the 15-30% range, with the highest chances over eastern portions
of the area.

The main weather concern continues to be the warm and humid
conditions across the region. High temps will warm into the mid 90s
each day outside of the immediate coast. There won`t be much relief
at night as lows only fall into the mid 70s to low 80s. Peak heat
indices should remain just below advisory criteria, generally 105-
107 degrees. This will pose a moderate to major (orange to red) heat
risk across southeast Texas. The latest probabilistic heat risk
guidance hints as a low (10-15%) chance for some locations to
experience an extreme heat risk daily through the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

No significant changes were made to the previous aviaiton package.
Brief MVFR ceilings remain possible around sunrise this morning.
Otherwise, VFR is expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Southerly
winds increase become gusty again by mid Sunday morning, with
gusts 20-25 knots. Winds back off some around sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Moderate to fresh southerly winds and 3 to 5 foot seas will prevail
through Monday. Winds and seas will decrease slightly Tuesday into
the mid-week period. There will be a high risk of rip currents along
area beaches through at least Monday. Rain chances will remain very
low through early next week, increasing to the low to medium range
by mid/late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  78  96  76  95 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  80  95  78  94 /   0  10   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  84  89  83  89 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
     for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NC
AVIATION...Mejia
MARINE...NC

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion