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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

733
FXUS64 KHGX 040436
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1136 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant weather continues through Tuesday.

- Cold front should bring scattered showers/storms Wednesday
  afternoon and evening. Will continue monitoring the potential
  for some isolated strong to severe cells.

- Rain chances are trending upward for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

More pleasant weather is in store for today as benign conditions
persist across SE Texas. Temperatures should be warmer early in the
morning with lows in the 50s/lower 60s inland and mid/upper 60s
along the coastline. Onshore flow will facilitate moisture return
with PWs climbing to 1.0-1.4 inches throughout the day. This
increase in moisture will result in larger cloud cover, though
afternoon highs are forecasted to reach the upper 70s/mid 80s thanks
to steady WAA. Some weak impulses embedded in the NW flow aloft
could bring a brief shower or two, though still rain chances remain
sparse.

Tuesday will be another warm and benign day weather wise. Lows in
the morning will be warm, only dropping into the mid 60s/lower 70s
with cloudy skies overhead. Cloud cover scatters out in the late
afternoon with highs forecasted to reach the upper 70s/upper 80s.
Sparse rain chances are expected, though some weak impulses aloft
could still bring a few weak showers. Rain chances should rise
overnight as the next weather system approaches SE Texas.

A period of more active weather develops on Wednesday as a mid/upper
trough sweeps across the Rockies/Plains, sending a cold front
towards SE Texas. Before the cold front reaches SE Texas, we should
see PWs climb to 1.7-2.0 inches with lift from the trough/passing
impulses aloft. Some scattered showers and storms may develop ahead
of the cold front during the daytime. Long range ensembles show
stronger capping closer to the coastline, though this cap weakens
further to the north across the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area.
Ample instability and shear will still be available, thus it`s
certainly possible that an isolated strong/severe storm could
develop ahead of and along the cold front. SPC maintains a Slight
(level 2/5) Risk of severe weather over SE Texas on Wednesday,
mainly for areas along/north of I-10.

Models have trended slower with the FROPA, adding some uncertainty
with respect to timing this feature. It could take till Thursday
morning to finally see the front push off the coast. Cooler and
breezy wx will briefly develop in it`s wake, but onshore winds
should return on Friday as high pressure pushes off to the east. A
series of impulses from an approaching shortwave trough/low over the
desert southwest will maintain rain chances on Friday through the
weekend. May see some more widespread rains depending on whenever
this next trough pushes through the area.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Mostly VFR conditions are expected tonight into Mon across the SE
Texas sites. Winds this evening will be S-SE at 5-10 KTS,
relaxing to around 03-06 KTS overnight through around sunrise.
Winds will then strengthen to 08-14 KTS for many locations after
15Z, with gusts of 18-24 KTS on occasion. Winds are expected to
be around 10 KTS for much of the Mon night period, along with
BKN/OVC decks.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Light to moderate onshore winds should increase through mid week,
likely prompting caution flags at times. Showers and storms are
expected on Wednesday as the next cold front pushes through with
some stronger storms possible. The front should push off the coast
some time between Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Anticipate
moderate north to northeast winds on Thursday behind the front.
Onshore winds quickly return by Friday with rain chances continuing
into the weekend.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  79  57  82  68 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  81  59  83  69 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  77  69  79  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion