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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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049
FXUS64 KHGX 012320
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory in effect for our southern counties (including the
  City of Houston) through early this evening.

- Frontal boundary may bring isolated showers/storms this
  afternoon and evening.

- While a drop in humidity is expected on Sunday, hot conditions
  are expected with highs in the upper 90s to near 100. Even
  hotter on Monday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

A weak cool front is at our doorstep early this afternoon. Latest
radar and sfc obs place the boundary extending between Waco and
College Stn areas as of early this afternoon. A few showers and
perhaps some lightning strikes can be expected through the afternoon
and evening hours as the front slowly sags southward into the region.
This is a very weak and very slow-moving boundary overall. Current
forecast suggests it will slowly move over the Houston metro area
overnight before settling along the coast by early Sunday morning,
where it will likely meander or even wash out over the coastal
waters during the day.

The primary impact from this FROPA will be a temporary drop in
humidity as drier air filters in from the north. Inland sfc
dewpoints are forecast to drop into the low 60s to low 70s
throughout the day on Sunday. Consequently, expect a dry heat across
most inland locations with high temps climbing into the upper 90s to
near 100F. A bit of a different story is expected along the coast,
however. Dewpoint values there will remain in the mid to upper 70s,
keeping conditions more humid with peak heat indices reaching up to
107F. Given the close proximity of the boundary near the coast on
Sunday combined with daytime heating, have maintained low-end PoPs
for our southwestern counties and coastal zones through the
afternoon.

Upper lvl ridging builds back into the region by Monday, setting up
a return to southerly flow at the surface. In other words, hot and
humid conditions return with Monday`s highs in the upper 90s to near
102F. Beyond Tuesday, the weather pattern settles into a more
typical, near-seasonal summertime regime. Expect diurnally-driven,
isolated showers and storms primarily driven by the daily seabreeze,
mainly in the each afternoons after Thursday.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

A slowing moving "cold" front continues to push into SE TX this
evening and overnight. Any remaining showers ahead of the front
are expected to dissipate in the next couple of hours. In general,
winds veer from WSW to N as the front pushes through. A light and
VRB wind group is included at most TAF sites to account for the
wind shift associated with the front. At KGLS, elevated and gusty
winds continue through the evening and overnight. Across all
sites, a drier air mass arrives in wake of the front, making CIGs
and VIS a minimal concern. Looking ahead to tomorrow afternoon,
there is a low chance for pop-up showers and thunderstorms
primarily along the coast due to daytime heating and positioning
of the weak frontal boundary; however, confidence is low.


MLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

South to southwest winds will gradually strengthen this afternoon and
evening ahead of an approaching cool front. Building seas are also
anticipated, mostly remaining up to 5 ft, occasionally higher
offshore. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for Galveston Bay
and nearshore waters from High Island to Freeport through early
Sunday. The FROPA is expected to reach the bays and coastal waters
late tonight into Sunday morning. While a brief wind shift to the
north-northwest will be possible over the bays and nearshore, the
boundary will meander near the coast through the day; therefore,
onshore winds will mainly prevail. A few showers and storms will be
possible this evening and then again Sunday afternoon, depending on
the final position of the FROPA. Beyond Sunday, dry and hot weather
is expected with light to occasionally moderate south to southeast
winds and seas around 2 to 3ft, occasionally up to 4 ft next weekend.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  98  74 100 /  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  78  99  77 101 /  10   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  81  93  82  94 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ200-213-214-226-
     227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ335-355.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Sunday morning for
     GMZ375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...MLG
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion