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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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124
FXUS64 KHGX 231833
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
133 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory remains in effect.

- Cannot rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm at times into
  midweek, but chances will be quite low for most of the area.

- Temperatures slightly ease late in the week along with the
  potential for some rain chances returning to the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Temperatures are currently running 2-5 degrees lower than yesterday
at this time thanks to the debris cloudiness passing overhead.
Satellite pix show the sun re-emerging so we still have plenty of
time to get some of those readings back close to 100F. Like
previous days, cannot rule out an isolated storm or two late in
the day/evening. Consider yourself lucky if one passes overhead as
most of us will remain dry.

If you`ve enjoyed the wx for the past several days, you`re in for
a treat because more of the same is anticipated thru at least
midweek. Will maintain the ongoing Heat Advisories in place.

Later in the week (Thursday and beyond), the western mid-upper
ridge moves a bit further to the west which will allow for falling
heights locally and a gradual easing of the 100F+ temps. It appears
that llvl ridging in the Gulf will also lose some of its grip. A
more prevalent SSE flow emerges (versus the current SW) and opens
up a better trajectory for some higher PW Gulf air to flow
inland. Combination of this, less potent subsidence aloft, and
some east-to-west mid level impulses should allow for the mention
of some POPs to return to the fcst. Suspect we`ll see rain
chances trend higher than we currently have in our fcst assuming
the wetter 12z deterministic model suites show some consistency as
time marches on. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

VFR conditions prevail alongside southwesterly winds around 5-10 kt.
Winds will transition to southeasterly later this afternoon. High-
resolution model guidance depicts isolated convection developing
around 21Z in portions of the Piney Woods and drifting
southwestward. As of right now, a PROB30 has been included only at
UTS, but CXO may also need SH/TS mentions should a similar setup to
Saturday afternoon unfold. Confidence remains rather low on any
convective development, but if anything manages to develop then
UTS/CXO would be the most likely to see convective impacts. Winds
transition back to light and southwesterly overnight. As seen over
the past few mornings, a brief period of isolated low ceilings will
be possible around and shortly after sunrise. Areawide VFR
conditions will return by 15Z/Monday.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Southwest to west winds late at night and in the mornings will
become south 10 to 15 knots during the day as the seabreeze kicks
in. Seas will be 1 to 3 feet. A more prevailing southeast to southeast
flow should set back up late in the week and weekend along with
the return of some isolated to scattered rain chances.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  78 103  77 102 /  20   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)  80 101  79 101 /  20  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  83  93  84  92 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion