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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

403
FXUS64 KHGX 280502
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1202 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal Risk of severe wx clips our northern zones today.
  Larger risk area, including excessive rainfall, for SE Texas on
  Wednesday.

- Above normal temperatures in the 80s/mid 90s through Wednesday.
  Cooler with rising rain chances afterwards.

- Late April cold front should push through the area Friday night
  with cooler and breezy wx in its wake.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Subtropical high pressure builds in from the south today,
establishing a zonal flow pattern aloft and thus allowing several
shortwave impulses to pass over the region throughout the next
several days. Rain chances are poised to be on the rise with each
passing day. For today at least, CAMs are a bit more bear with
convection placed north of our CWA. Regardless, this is still a
rather potent environment with SFC CAPE around 1500-3500 J/KG with
6km shear of 35-45 knots. Forecast soundings, compared to previous
runs, show the cap eroding a fairly strong amount during the
afternoon. Still seeing some midlevel dry air, but again those mid
level lapse rates are still steep at 8.0-8.7 DegC/KM. SPC has a
marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe storms clipping our northern
counties for today. If storms can pull together, all hazards will be
on the table, though strong winds and hail will be the primary
hazards.

Wednesday should see some changes to this broader weather pattern.
We`ll see a cold front push in from the north during the day, which
should help kick start some storms. We trade instability for better
shear, with some skinner CAPE profiles looking slightly more
favorable for rainfall efficiency. The final location of the FROPA
is uncertain, either stalling somewhere over the Brazos Valley or
closer to the coastline. In either case, we`re outlooked for a
Marginal (level 1/5) risk for severe weather and a Marginal (level
1/4) risk of excessive rainfall on Wednesday. Storms will be capable
of damaging winds, hail and locally heavy rainfall.

Rain chances continue to rise through Thursday. By Friday, a
stronger mid/upper level shortwave trough will begin to fill through
the southern Plains. This should bring widespread showers and
scattered storms throughout the day, along with sending a stronger
cold front our way late Friday night. Breezy conditions and cooler
weather follow on Saturday, with lingering rain chances throughout
the day, tapering off into Sunday morning. Onshore winds return
Sunday night with conditions warming up into next week.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Expect similar trends this evening as previous days. However,
current satellite imagery suggest cigs will drop faster this
evening and tonight, especially in our southern and coastal zones
(IAH down to the coast). We think there is a higher chance of IFR
than last night, along with the potential for patchy fog. Vis/cigs
gradually improve tomorrow morning as winds increase from the
south to south-southeast. Gusts over 20 knots appear likely by
late morning or early afternoon tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue through the next
several days. Elevated water levels around 2.5 to 3.0 feet above
MLLW are still expected at each high tide cycle through early next
week. A slight increase in winds and seas are expected beginning
around Tuesday next week. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible each day with higher rain chances Wednesday though the end
of the next work week. A modest cold front should bring moderate to
strong offshore winds Friday night into next weekend, likely
warranting at least small craft advisories.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  92  75  93  73 /  20  10  20  20
Houston (IAH)  91  76  92  74 /  10   0  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  82  76  84  75 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion