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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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428
FXUS64 KHGX 131759
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1259 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and humid conditions continue with scattered showers and
  storms through Wednesday, followed by a drier day on Thursday.

- A cold front arrives Friday, bringing a chance of coastal
  showers/storms, gusty north to northeast winds, and cooler/drier
  conditions to the region this weekend.

- Marine Conditions: Onshore winds and 3 to 5 ft seas will shift
  nort- northeasterly on Friday behind the front, with Small Craft
  Advisories likely and a potential for Gale conditions through
  Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast. Surface high
pressure centered to our east will maintain south to southeasterly
flow across the region through at least late Thursday. A mid to
upper level ridge overhead is also providing some subsidence/drier
air locally; however, with PWs running well above average (2.1 -
2.4 inches), and diurnal heating scattered showers and storms will
be possible this afternoon.

As the ridging aloft shifts eastward by Wed, low to mid level
moisture remains elevated (PW 2.0-2.3"). Therefore, another day
with scattered rain/storms can be expected, especially west of
I-45. A drier day is anticipated for Thursday as PW vales drop
below 1.2 inches.

The next weather story is the arrival of a stronger front,
potentially the first real cold front of the season. A strong high
pressure centered over the Rockies will push a cold front through
on Friday, likely resulting in breezy, drier and cooler
conditions in its wake. It will be a warm day with highs in the
80s, but with breezy winds shifting to the north-northeast as the
pressure gradient tightens and the front moves through. A few
showers and storms are possible ahead of and along the FROPA, with
the best chances over the coastal zones. Cooler conditions are
expected through the weekend with temperatures in the 70s to low
80s and overnight temperatures in the 50s and 60s. With mostly
clear skies and light surface winds, Saturday night into Sunday is
shaping up to be the coolest night of the period. Low
temperatures could potentially reach the low 50s across our far
northern counties (near the Madisonville and Crockett areas). The
NBM probability of temperatures being less than 50F is around
30-40% for these areas, and in the 20 to 30% range for the Brazos
Valley.

Rain and storm chances return early next week as a surface
trough/easterly wave approaches from the southwestern Gulf.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Showers are anticipated through the afternoon, generally east of
I- 45. Thunder is unlikely but can`t be ruled out for a few of the
stronger storms. Elevated winds out of the SE remain through the
afternoon and decrease by the evening. Overnight, another round of
MVFR level CIGs is expected to fill in, generally north of I-10.
IFR CIGs are possible as well, for the more northern sites. MVFR
CIGs stick around into the morning hours, and scatter out by late
tomorrow morning. There are some low probabilities for showers
tomorrow morning, for the western portions of the region.
Confidence was too low to include in the current TAF cycle.

MLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Light to moderate onshore winds with occasional gusts around 15
to 20 kts and seas around 3 to 5 ft will continue through the
next few days. A frontal boundary is forecast to move off the
coast by Friday, resulting in north-northeast winds. Behind the
front, cooler air will filter in that, combined with warm waters
could potentially lead to stronger winds by Friday night. We
continue to monitor for potential gale conditions as models
continue to show probabilities of 40 to 70% of winds at or greater
than 35 kts through Saturday morning, with the highest
probabilities well offshore. Having said that, Small Craft
Advisories will likely be issued, with the potential for Gale
conditions, especially offshore. Winds and seas will gradually
weaken/subside Saturday night into Sunday. Better rain and storm
chances arrive early next week as a coastal trough moves along the
TX coast.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  94  75  92  69 /  20  10  40  10
Houston (IAH)  91  77  90  72 /  50  10  20  10
Galveston (GLS)  87  80  85  79 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...MLG
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion