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907
FXUS64 KHGX 011117
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
617 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

- The pattern of widespread afternoon showers and thunderstorms is
  over, but still could see an isolated afternoon shower or storm
  over the next few days.

- Temperatures are on a warming trend with high temperatures
  expected to be in the mid to upper 90s by the end of the week.

- Hazy skies persist as a layer of Saharan Dust moves over the
  region.

- Got plans for July 4th? Make sure to stay hydrated and apply
  sunscreen if hanging out in the sun.

Fowler

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Forecast remains on track, but nudged POPs up in the southern metro
area later this afternoon. The last 10 runs of the HRRR have consistently
shown a small cluster of storms pop up around the Houston Ship
Channel/downtown area in the 2-5pm timeframe and probably worth
the mention considering the population and possible impact to the
late afternoon commute. 47

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

The afternoon thunderstorms we experienced earlier had some oomph
to them with rain rates approaching 2-4" per hour at times - but
luckily they had enough movement to not cause any significant
flooding concerns. There will be a slight chance of isolated
showers or thunderstorms through at least midweek along and south
of the I- 10 corridor, but coverage and intensity of these storms
will much less compared to the past several days as high pressure
builds overhead. However, this high pressure building overhead
will also lead to rising temperatures through the remainder of the
week. Temperatures are expected to peak Friday or Saturday with
highs in the mid to upper 90s inland, and low to mid 90s along the
coast. Expect continued hazy skies through this week as surges of
Saharan Dust move through the region.

If you have outdoor plans for July 4th, make sure to stay hydrated,
take breaks in the shade or A/C, and apply sunscreen when outside.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Just some thin cirrus out there right now, but that has allowed
for temps to cool to the dewpoint at several locations allowing
for some patchy fog development. This should burn off a few hours
after sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions should mostly prevail
today...but terminals around the metro area should be on the lookout
for some scattered pop-up tstms in the vicinity in the 20-23z
timeframe as consistently indicated by the HRRR model. Precip
should die off by early evening. SREF guidance indicates the potential
for some more fog development along the I-10/US59 corridor later
tonight...moreso just west of the I-45 terminals.  47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Light onshore winds between 5-10kt and low seas will persist through
this week. An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible
through midweek, but chances are much lower than compared to the
past few days.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  95  73  95  75 /  10   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)  95  75  95  76 /  30  10  20   0
Galveston (GLS)  90  80  90  81 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion