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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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660
FXUS64 KHGX 281142
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
542 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog will remain a possibility nightly through the weekend,
  especially in the coastal areas.

- Unseasonably warm weather will continue through the start of
  next week.

- Few cold fronts will try but are unlikely to reach SE Texas next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1147 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

This weekend will be featuring mostly sunny skies during the
daytime with high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid-80s, but
then mostly cloudy skies and areas of fog expected during the
overnight hours. Fog will have the greatest chance of forming
along the coast as sea fog rolls in from the waters during the
overnight and early morning hours. The fog should scatter out
through the mid-morning hours, but some patchy sea fog may linger
in the coastal waters into the afternoons. The abnormally warm
weather should lead to warming ocean temperatures, so sea fog
potential does decrease as we head into the new week.

A building upper-level ridge will begin to position itself over
eastern Texas Monday into Tuesday leading to even warmer weather
with highs in the mid-80s expected by Tuesday with some pockets of
upper 80s possible in the Brazos Valley. An upper-level low moving
through the Great Basin region will push the aforementioned high
pressure to the east on Wednesday. This will set up the upper-
level pattern through the remainder of the week: high pressure to
the east, troughing to the west, with southwesterly flow aloft
between those two features set-up over SE Texas. Forecast
uncertainty does increase as we head into the second half of next
week as a couple of cold front approach the region. The first will
be Wednesday into Thursday, and at this time this front appears to
stall near the I-35 Corridor. However, passing weaknesses aloft
and increased PWATs will lead to a chance of rain across SE Texas
on Wednesday. And if this front ends up making its way deeper
into SE Texas, then PoPs will likely increase. Another front may
approach the region next weekend as well, but its a bit too soon
to get into the details.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 512 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Satellite shows areas of patchy to dense fog expanding generally
over the southern and western locations of Southeast TX. Thus, we
will likely continue to see LIFR-MVFR vis and cigs for GLS, LBX,
SGR, and HOU. Lower visibilities could also affect IAH and CLL,
depending on how far northward the fog moves. Fog is expected to
burn off and cigs will scatter out shortly after 14-15Z. However,
conditions may be slower to improve over GLS and LBX due to
persisting sea fog over the bays and nearshore Gulf waters. Expect
SE winds at 6-12 KTS today, becoming light and VRB this evening.
We will once again see low vis and cigs tonight into Sun morning
as fog re-develops over portions of Southeast TX.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1147 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Areas of dense sea fog are expected to persist through Saturday
morning. The coastal waters, Matagorda Bay, and lower Galveston
Bay will have the highest coverage of dense fog, with patchy dense
fog expected for the upper Galveston Bay. The fog is expected to
retreat from the Bays during the mid-morning hours, but may linger
in the coastal waters through the afternoon. Another round of fog
is expected Saturday night into Sunday morning. Chance for dense
fog is looking lower Sunday night into Monday morning as
persistent warm weather aids in rising SSTs, and thus limiting sea
fog development.

Otherwise, expect low seas and light onshore winds to prevail into
early next week.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  85  58  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  83  60  81  61 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  73  62  72  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ226-227-
     235>238-335>338-436>439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for GMZ350-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...Fowler

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion