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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

901
FXUS64 KHGX 091900
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
200 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop
  this afternoon. Brief heavy downpours, frequent lightning and
  gusty winds up to 35 mph are possible with the strongest storms
  through early this evening.

- Rain and storm chances continue each day. Precipitation should
  be diurnally driven...starting out offshore and near the coast
  late at night and in the mornings then transitioning inland
  during the day.

- High temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 90s inland
  and the upper 80s to lower 90s along the coast. Peak heat
  indices 102 - 108F.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and move
slowly inland this afternoon. Frequent lightning and brief heavy
downpours are the primary risks with the strongest storms or
training storms. Synoptically, an elongated ridge extends from the
southern Rockies to the southeastern CONUS, while an inverted trough
moves westward over the northwestern Gulf. Soundings and Blended
TPW Satellite show deep tropical moisture (PWs 2.0 - 2.4 inches)
remaining over the region. The combination of abundant moisture,
the vicinity of the trough, and seabreeze interaction is
responsible of producing these rain/storms over the area. Most of
this activity is diurnally-driven; therefore, it should taper off
near/after sunset.

The pattern aloft will not change much for the rest of the week and
into the weekend. Ridge aloft continues to break down/flatten as a
frontal boundary moves over northeast TX. Locally, significant
changes in the forecast are not anticipated other than daily
scattered showers and thunderstorms. This activity will develop over
the coastal waters and along the islands late overnight/early
morning, spreading farther inland throughout the day. Most of
Southeast TX will see isolated to scattered activity popping up
during the day, with the greatest chances of rain/storms remaining
along and south of I-10. As is typical with weak low-lvl vorticity
and tropical moisture, a few weak funnel clouds may be possible
mainly in the mornings.

For early next week, a mid to upper lvl ridge centered over the
southeastern CONUS will slowly expand westward into our region. This
will result in a slightly drier airmass; however, southerly warm and
humid surface flow will be enough to support isolated/scattered
diurnally driven activity (chances of rain/storms 20 to 40 percent)
each day, especially along the seabreeze.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 547 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Isolated to scattered showers have been present offshore and along
the coast near LBX/GLS for most of the early morning hours. This
sporadic coverage of coastal showers will continue through the
morning, then will be followed by increasing coverage of
showers/storms by the late morning into the afternoon with
daytime heating and the seabreeze moving inland. There remains a
little bit of uncertainty in the inland extent of the afternoon
convection, but the general timing of 18Z-00Z remains consistent
with what we have seen over the past few days. The southern
terminals are on the earlier end of that window and vice versa.
The highest confidence for convective impacts is generally near and
south of the I-10 corridor. Outside of any storms, VFR conditions
will prevail throughout the day with light easterly winds in the
morning becoming southeasterly in the afternoon between 7-10 kt.
Convection subsides after sunset and will be accompanied by a
trend towards light and variable winds going into the overnight
hours. A rinse and repeat pattern for Thursday, so anticipate
another round of early morning showers again along the coast.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Light onshore winds and seas around 1 to 2ft will prevail this week
and into the weekend. The main marine concerns will be a daily risk
of scattered showers and thunderstorms, generally developing late
night through mid/late morning over the coastal waters, before
spreading farther inland through the day. Erratic winds, brief
downpours, and lightning are possible near any strong storms. As
we have been seeing today and over the past few days, weak,
atmospheric conditions will continue to be favorable for weak
waterspouts/funnel clouds early in the morning. If they do
develop, they are typically weak, and short-lived.conditions
develop near your area.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  98  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  20
Houston (IAH)  92  78  94  77 /  40  20  40  20
Galveston (GLS)  91  82  90  81 /  60  30  50  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion