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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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030
FXUS64 KHGX 121139
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
539 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming up today into this weekend with lights showers
  possible.

- Patches to Areas of fog/sea fog possible today through Saturday
  ahead of a cold front.

- Cold front moves off the coast on Sunday with cooler weather
  into next week. Freezing temps possible early Monday morning
  over the north/northeastern cwa.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1202 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Southerly flow and WAA will keep the warming trend in place for
today and portions of the weekend. Highs during this period will
reach the upper 60s/mid 70s, though early morning lows will still
lean on the cool side in the mid 40s/lower 60s. A few light showers
could develop during this period, mainly near the coast due to a
combination of WAA and a passing midlevel shortwave. More notably,
we may see some periods of sea fog develop over the bays/nearshore
waters, along with radiation fog inland during the overnight/early
morning hours.

Current marine obs show 60s dewpoints at KGLS, ahead of some CAMs,
which anticipate that this deeper moisture will reach the upper bays
later this morning. With this, we`ll certainly have a modest chance
for patches/areas of sea fog this morning over the bays/nearshore
waters. Inland fog is already developing over Victoria this
morning, and those areas of fog will likely expand into SE Texas
later this morning. Coverage will be greatest west of I-45, which
is most likely to see a dense fog advisory. Fog should burn off
during the day inland, though we could see some hazy conditions
looming over the nearshore waters/Galveston bay this afternoon.
Tonight into Saturday morning has the strongest signal for sea fog
across the bays/nearshore waters in the forecast, so mariners may
see some of the worst impacts from sea fog during this period.
Saturday night into the early morning hours of Sunday will also be
a particularly interesting time frame to watch with respect to
sea fog as well, due to pooling moisture and easing winds leading
up to a cold front. The cold front is still slated to push off the
coast Sunday morning, so there will be plenty of time for fog to
develop prior to it`s arrival earlier in the morning. Though,
rising water temperatures and mixing from showers may limit the
extent of sea fog by that point. Ensemble fog probabilities are
lower, which seem to reflect this idea, though again I wouldn`t
rule out the possibility for areas of dense fog Saturday night
into early Sunday.

Sunday should see cooler and drier weather in the wake of the cold
front. Monday remains the coldest period in the forecast with
temperatures early in the morning dropping into the upper 20s/30s to
lower 40s near the coast. A few more spots over SE Texas could see
their first freeze of the season as well. During the daytime, highs
for Monday should top out in the 50s/lower 60s. High pressure moves
off the east and once again we get onshore flow Monday afternoon
with WAA and moisture advection in full swing again by Tuesday. Rain
chances return for Tuesday and increase through mid next week. We`ll
also need to watch out for sea fog along the coast Wednesday and
onwards, though the extent will depend on how much water
temperatures cool with the next front and warm thereafter.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 528 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Widespread LIFR to IFR conditions are being seeing this morning
as dense fog blankets the area bringing visibilites down to 1/2mi
or less. Improvements are expected through the morning with MVFR
conditions expected by 9-10am with CIGs around 1500ft, and then
further improvements to VFR conditions this afternoon. However,
dense fog will return tonight bringing a return of IFR/LIFR
conditions returning around midnight that will persist into
Saturday morning. Light southeasterly winds will prevail through
the period.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1202 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Winds have shifted onshore, enabling moisture return now into the
weekend. We`ll have to keep an eye out for sea fog across the
nearshore waters and bays this morning. Some hazy conditions may
linger in the bays/nearshore waters during the day. Tonight into
Saturday morning is the current time frame where sea fog conditions
are most optimal, though water temperatures warming just a tad could
inhibit sea fog development. If water temperatures are very slow to
recover, the worst of the sea fog may extend through Saturday night
into Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Small Craft
Advisories are likely on Sunday behind the front. Winds and seas
decrease on Monday with winds shifting onshore early on Tuesday. By
Wednesday, we`ll have to once again keep and eye out for sea fog
over the nearshore bays & gulf waters.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  72  59  74  51 /   0  10  10  20
Houston (IAH)  74  61  75  57 /   0  10  30  30
Galveston (GLS)  71  63  70  58 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ163-176-
     177-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion