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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

639
FXUS64 KHGX 111112
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
612 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The workweek will begin with some lingering showers and slightly
  cooler than normal conditions.

- Drier and milder weather returns through the middle of this week
  with only 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall likely through next
  weekend.

- Some temperature maximums could reach the 90-degree mark by the
  end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Aloft, troughing will continue to carry remnant convection (and
the attendant frontal boundary) further offshore through the rest
of the day on Monday. After it does so, northwesterly flow will
briefly ensue across southeast Texas. Ridging will shift from the
Intermountain West across West Texas by Wednesday, displacing
northwest flow and reintroducing onshore southerly winds through
the rest of the week into the weekend. This will set the stage for
a gradual warmup into the latter half of the week. Medium-range
guidance suggests the center of the ridge axis to be across East
Texas by that time with a 60-70% chance of temperature maximums
reaching the 90-degree mark across most areas north of the I-10
corridor.

By the end of the workweek, the 70-degree isodrosotherm makes its
return further inland on southerly winds that also gain speed to
near 10 mph. Long-range guidance still very gradually tries to re-
introduce some rain chances into next weekend, however, forecast
confidence remains low at this range due to the variation in the
strength of the ridge that is yet to be resolved. WPC Day 1-7 QPF
values remain lower as a result, ranging at 0.5-1.5 inches with
the bulk of that total coming in the next 24 hours.

Cassel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Showers and thunderstorms associated to a FROPA are now over the
Gulf waters and no longer pose a threat to SE Texas TAF sites.
There might be some iso-sct showers and thunderstorms over the
region today, mainly for areas closer to the coast. Otherwise,
expect mostly VFR conditions today with N-NE winds at 10-15 KTS
with gusts of around 20 KTS at times. Tranquil conditions prevail
during the overnight hours with light NE winds expected through
Tue.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

As of 12:30 AM CDT, a line of strong thunderstorms (some severe)
are about 40-60 miles from shore and will emerge offshore later
this Monday morning, producing some moderate northerly winds. As
the storms abate through the day today, post-frontal northerly
winds will remain through the rest of the day before veering back
onshore by Wednesday through the rest of the drier and milder
workweek ahead. All post-frontal winds are expected to remain
below the threshold requiring issuance of a Small Craft Advisory
at this time.

Cassel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  78  64  81  65 /  20   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  82  68  85  70 /  30  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  81  72  81  74 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cassel
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...Cassel

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion