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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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590
FXUS64 KHGX 112320
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Few scattered to isolated showers/storms this afternoon.

- Warm and seasonable weather expected throughout the work week.

- Isolated rain chances return over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Water vapor imagery shows a passing shortwave trough moving into SE
Texas aloft this afternoon. Modest moisture lingers behind this
morning`s cold front with PWs around 1.3-1.5 inches. Clearing skies
and afternoon heating should provide some destabilization over the
next few hours. CAMs have been suggesting some isolated to scattered
showers this afternoon, which are already beginning to show on
radar. Could see a few thunderstorms too, though these will mostly
likely be weaker & more pulse-like in nature as well. Areas
generally east of the I-45 corridor can anticipate overall better
rain chances through the afternoon, tapering off tonight as high
pressure builds over the area.

Rest of the forecast remains largely the same. On Tuesday, a mid to
upper level ridge will build over the W CONUS/Four Corners region,
ushering in a period of benign weather throughout much of the work
week. This ridge aloft should shift easterly with time, along with
surface high pressure, allowing light onshore winds to return around
Tuesday night, though largely sea-landbreeze driven initially. This
will allow moisture to rebuild as temperatures rise through mid
week. Highs should be in the upper 70s/80s with isolated 90s
possible, while lows reach the 60s/70s. Around Thursday, the ridge
aloft will weaken slightly as a series of disturbances push in from
the west. The ridge axis will shift east of the area by Friday,
weakening it`s influence over the area. Long range guidance shows
some disturbances/impulses streaming over SE Texas Friday & Saturday
with the aforementioned ridge amplifying over the SE CONUS Sunday
into next week. Could see some showers during this period, though
warm weather and isolated rain chances are still anticipated.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period with one
potential exception. Some model guidance is hinting at a brief
window for reduced visibilities at the northern three terminals
between 11Z-14Z. Drier air will be moving in, but model soundings
and low dewpoint depressions are supportive of a brief patchy fog
window early Tuesday morning. Confidence is leaning more towards
the low to moderate side, so covered this with a short TEMPO for
CLL/UTS/CXO. Outside of that, mainly a wind forecast. Breezy
northerly to northeasterly winds late this afternoon will become
light and variable overnight, then pick up again out of the
northeast again on Tuesday generally in the 5-8 kt range.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Isolated to scattered showers remain possible through the afternoon.
Breezy north to northeast winds should decrease this afternoon into
Tuesday as high pressure slowly builds into the area. Should see
mostly sea-landbreeze driven winds Tuesday afternoon through
Thursday morning. Afterwards, the pressure gradient will tighten,
resulting in elevated onshore winds late Friday. Moderate onshore
winds and rising rain chances are anticipated this weekend.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  63  81  64  85 /  20   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  66  84  68  88 /  20   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  71  81  72  83 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion