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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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109
FXUS64 KHGX 281140
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
640 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weak shortwaves and decent moisture will bring scattered showers
  today (best chances west of I-45).

- Slightly drier air briefly moves in from the east on Thursday.

- Rain chances return Friday through the weekend as moisture
  levels increase and a few upper level disturbances pass through.
  The best chances of rain will be on Saturday during the day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Scattered showers are expected today as another weak shortwave moves
through the region. Model guidance continues to bring some
isentropic lifting across most of the area today, which, combined
with upper lvl forcing, will keep showers in the forecast along with
isolated thunderstorms possible. Will continue with the best rain
chances for areas west of I-45, where higher PW values persist,
though it would not be surprising to see some light activity occur
further east.

By Thursday, a drier airmass filters in, bringing lower rain
chances. An increase in moisture returns Friday and Saturday, with
PWs surging back into the 1.3 to 1.7 inch range. High moisture
combined with passing shortwaves embedded in the southwesterly flow
aloft will keep scattered rain chances in the forecast, with the
highest overall chances peaking late Friday into Saturday. Any
activity should diminish by early evening. PW values remain somewhat
elevated on Sunday; however, PoPs will remain on the light side
given a lack of substantial upper-level forcing. The next main
weather-maker arrives early next week as a mid-lvl trough/closed low
moves across the Plains, dragging a cold front through the area in
the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame. Given the current parameters,
timing, and evolution of this trough, we will continue to monitor
the  potential for strong to severe weather ahead of and along the
FROPA.

Overall, expect near normal temperatures through the period, with
highs generally in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the
upper 50s and 60s.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Dense fog ongoing across the Brazos Valley, impacting the CLL
terminal, and resulting in LIFR conditions. CXO also at LIFR due
to low CIGs. GLS experiencing MVFR CIGs and all other sites are at
VFR. Expect conditions at all sites to improve to VFR by around
16Z with VFR prevailing through the rest of the day. Winds will be
out of the SE at around 5-10 knots through the day, becoming light
and variable during the overnight hours into Thursday.

Bailey

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Persistent easterly flow will continue through most of the week,
leading to occasional moderate onshore winds and seas generally 3
to 4 ft. Occasional higher seas are possible offshore at times.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
daily, as different weak disturbances move through the region. The
best chances of rain/storms will be near the Matagorda Bay region
and coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Bay Entrance
0-60 nm.

Beach conditions: Isolated/minor coastal flooding remains
possible, especially during times of high tide. P-ETSS guidance
suggests water levels reaching 3.0 - 3.5 ft MLLW, particularly
during times of high tide through the rest of the work week.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  84  62  83  63 /  30  10  10   0
Houston (IAH)  83  63  84  64 /  20  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  79  71  78  70 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for TXZ195>197-
     210-211.

GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion