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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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003
FXUS64 KHGX 061130
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
530 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weak reinforcing front will push off the coast this morning.

- Increasing cloudiness later today and tonight. Rain chances
  increase Saturday night and Sunday across western parts of the
  region.

- Cool conditions anticipated Sunday with abundant cloud cover and
  scattered showers in the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1221 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Very benign weather is forecast early this morning, with readings
generally in the 60s, and light winds. Synoptically, weak upper-
level ridging persists. Some shortwave action approaches from the
southwest, causing increased precip chances offshore until
sunrise. Patchy fog may develop early this morning, particularly
along and south of I-10 ahead of a weak cold front that will be
pushing through the region. The front continues its trek until
stalling over the Gulf waters. Because this is a very weak cold
front, we don`t expect temperatures to decrease by much. Highs on
Friday remain in the mid 70s to low 80s. But don`t fret, we do
expect a gradual cooling trend this weekend into next week, as a
surface high builds in from the north. Forecast high temps are in
the 70s on Saturday and dip down into the 60s on Sunday.

This weekend, the synoptic pattern changes. A mid/upper level trough
strengthens over west CONUS until eventually, a cut-off low feature
breaks out of the trough. By Saturday, the mid/upper level cut-off
low should be centered over northern Mexico, and will slowly move NE
towards TX, advecting positive vort maxes into our region.
Additionally, an upper-level jet is evident across south-central
CONUS, moving east ahead of the low. The jet`s position places
western portions of our CWA near the right-entrance region,
enhancing lift. At the same time, a coastal trough feature emerges
due to the stalled front I mentioned earlier. By Sunday, the low
begins to interact with the coastal trough. Gulf moisture wraps
around the low, advecting moisture inland, particularly west of I-45.
This, combined with enhanced lift, leads to increased chances for
showers and thunderstorms Sunday morning through Monday afternoon.
Current guidance places the highest chances west of I-45, though
some showers could creep further east.

Regardless of rain chances, cloud cover should increase across the
region this weekend, staying mostly overcast on Sunday. Sunday is
shaping up to be the coolest day, with cloud cover helping to limit
any heating potential. Most deterministic models show highs in the
60s across the board, though some ensembles nudge up high temps into
the 70s. Sunday`s lows are forecast in the 50s, with some spots in
our northern counties dipping down into the 40s. By Monday night,
the low meanders NE across TX, and cloud cover starts to decrease.
High temps gradually warm back up to the 70s, and lows stick around
in the 50s (inland) to 60s (coastal). However, the surface high to
our north maintains it`s stronghold, which should help temps remain
mild through the week. Rain chances remain low for inland areas
through the work week, though that coastal trough sticks around.
This keeps moisture levels elevated near the coast and over the Gulf
waters, allowing for medium rain chances in these areas. Enjoy this
beautiful fall weather SE TX!

MLG

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 515 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Patchy fog will continue to bring MVFR to IFR conditions early
this morning ahead of a weak frontal boundary. Daytime heating
and the weak fropa should clear out this fog over the next few
hours. Afterwards, mid to high level clouds and light winds are
expected through early Saturday, with winds increasing and
becoming ENE later that morning.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1221 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

A weak front will push into the waters this morning, but other
than a shift in wind direction, speeds and seas will be remain
relatively low. A coastal trough develops off the low and mid
Texas coast this weekend. As it does so, east and northeast winds
will increase as will seas. Small Craft Advisories will likely be
required later in the day Saturday and into Sunday. Conditions
should gradually improve early next week.

MLG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  79  61  75  56 /   0   0   0  20
Houston (IAH)  82  64  77  58 /   0  10   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  78  68  76  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MLG
AVIATION...03
MARINE...MLG

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion