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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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465
FXUS64 KHGX 112324
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
524 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A weak cold front will stall near the coastal locations tonight,
  then slowly lift as a warm front on Thursday. Expect warmer
  conditions Thursday into Friday.

- A stronger system is forecast to arrive Saturday, bringing the
  potential for scattered to widespread showers and storms. While
  confidence in rainfall is increasing, specific details on timing
  and total amounts remain uncertain. Please consider alternate
  plans for outdoor activities, if able.

- Tranquil conditions are expected Sunday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

The weak cold front is currently making its way southward across
the coastal locations of Southeast Texas. Areas of showers mainly
along the frontal boundary will continue to develop this
afternoon, but if the front has enough push to make it further
into the coastal waters, it would keep much of the shower activity
over the Gulf. If it stalls near the coast, then expect a few more
isolated showers near the coast along with the potential for some
coastal and sea fog tonight. The weak boundary will linger over
or near the coastal areas tonight, however, the cooler and drier
air behind the front will be able to push over areas north of I-10
and allow for slightly lower temperatures overnight. We will see
lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s over the Brazos Valley and
Piney Woods region, the mid to upper 50s for the rest of the
inland portions, and the upper 50s to lower 60s along the coast.

Now, the bad news is that ridging will build overhead and the
boundary will begin to slowly lift north-northeastward on Thursday
as a warm front, and could bring southwest to west wind flow over
Southeast Texas. This would lead to warmer daytime temperatures with
highs peaking in the upper 70s to lower 80s for the inland areas and
in the lower to mid 70s along the coasts on Thursday. Once the front
exits to our northeast, warm and humid conditions will prevail
Thursday night into Friday as our typical south to southeasterly
wind flow returns. Our lows will be back in the 60s and the highs
for Friday look to stay in the upper 70s to lower 80s range.

Now the main headliner for this forecast package is this
Saturday`s weather pattern (Valentine`s Day and we know that
Houston has no luck with holiday weather events). A mid to upper
level trough currently over the eastern Pacific will progress
eastward and make its way across the Southern Plains sometime late
Friday into Saturday. A surface low and associated cold front
will then push into the northern and central portions of Texas by
Saturday morning. We could see isolated to scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms starting late Friday night, increasing
early Saturday morning as the front progress towards the Brazos
Valley region and increases lift. Fairly good moisture convergence
could occur just ahead of the front and models have been fairly
consistent since yesterday with bringing scattered to widespread
showers and thunderstorms for much of Southeast Texas throughout
the day Saturday. This could lead to some ponding of water along
roadways and poor drainage areas. There might also be the
potential for strong to possibly severe storms. We are keeping an
eye on the model trends and looking into the timing and location
of severe weather impacts, if any. If you have any outdoor
plans/surprises for Valentines Day, continue to monitor the
forecast and weather updates and consider alternate plans if able.

At the moment, the cold front is progged to exit our local area
rather quickly sometime Saturday evening or Saturday night. Drier
air will follow behind the front, ending our chance for rain.
Tranquil weather conditions on Sunday and prevail through at least
early next week.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 448 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Frontal boundary stalled right along the coastline will make for a
difficult forecast the coastal TAF sites. Areas south of this
boundary are likely to see rapidly deteriorating conditions with
IFR-LIFR FLs, while areas to the north experience predominantly*
VFR conditions during the nighttime. Based on guidance, it appears
that this boundary should meander north slightly, encompassing
both KLBX and KGLS overnight. Boundary could slide southward early
on Thursday, which may result in some FL improvements during the
pre-dawn hours at KLBX. Around sunrise, some brief IFR CIGS could
develop across portions of the Metro area, in part from NE winds
and moisture advection off Lake Houston. Either way, most areas
should return to VFR FLs by 9-10am, prevailing throughout the
daytime. Anticipate another round of CIGS & fog Thursday night.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

A weak cold front is expected to stall near or over the coastal
waters today and tonight. This will make the forecast for sea fog
a bit tricky. If the front stalls closer to the coastline, then
there will still be the potential for some sea fog to develop over
the Gulf waters and possibly into portions of the bays later
tonight or early Thursday morning. However, if it progresses
further into the Gulf waters, then we might not see much fog
development. The environment becomes more favorable for fog late
Thursday into Friday as onshore flow returns.

Winds and seas will be on the rise Friday into Saturday as the
local pressure gradient tightens ahead of the next cold front.
Periods of showers and thunderstorms expected Friday, increasing
Saturday ahead of the front. Elevated water levels are possible
over the bays during high tide on Saturday. Moderate to
occasionally strong NW winds expected on Sunday. Caution flags
and/or Small Craft Advisories may be needed. Winds will relax
Sunday night and turn NE to E on Monday. Onshore flow returns
early next week.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  50  79  59  79 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  57  79  61  78 /   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  58  72  60  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cotto
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion