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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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646
FXUS64 KHGX 161814
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
114 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Uneventful, muggy conditions will continue through the weekend
  with a low chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms.

- Confidence continues to increase on wetter, more impactful
  weather across southeast Texas with 2 to 4 inches of rainfall
  more likely in the next 7 days.

- Beach conditions: localized minor coastal flooding will be possible
  during times of high tide mainly near Galveston Bay through the
  weekend. A high risk of rip currents is also expected along all
  Gulf- facing beaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

By late tonight into Sunday, a mid to upper level longwave trough
continues to deepen over the Rockies with several shortwaves
ejecting east-northeast toward the central and southern Plains. This
system is also bringing more Pacific moisture embedded in the west-
southwest flow. At lower levels, a developing low will continue to
strengthen the 850mb jet, leading to an increase in low-level Gulf
moisture further inland. Therefore, with significant warm air
advection and isentropic upglide, we cannot rule out isolated
showers and a few lightning strikes late tonight into early Sunday
morning.

A relatively dry, warm and humid day is expected on Sunday with
mostly cloudy skies and highs generally in the mid 80s to low 90s.
Any showers that develop should be short-lived. The main story will
be heat indices reaching the upper 90s to low 100s in the afternoon.
Please, be sure to practice heat safety, especially if you have
outdoor plans in the afternoon and early evening.

After a week of little to no rain, the upcoming week is shaping up
to be wetter with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms,
especially during the peak daytime heating. Models continue to
indicate PWAT values close to or at the daily max of climatology for
mid to late May standards. Sufficient moisture paired with a parade
of shortwaves aloft through the week will be enough to produce
scattered to widespread activity. The best chances will occur late
Tuesday into Thursday as a stronger shortwave and an approaching
frontal boundary move close to Southeast TX. There is medium to high
confidence that we will receive rain next week. However, confidence
regarding total amounts, timing, and the location of the heaviest
rain is still low to medium as it will depend on the actual track of
these shortwaves. Based on the latest guidance an estimated rainfall
total of 2 to 4 inches will be possible Monday through Friday, with
the highest totals over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region.
Localized higher amounts will be possible. WPC highlights this risk
of excessive rainfall in their Day 5 outlook. Specific details
like rainfall totals, coverage, timing and intensity will be
monitored closely as high resolution forecast models converge on a
solution.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 543 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Primary concern today will be gusty southeast winds. By late
morning and afternoon, winds could gust up to around 25 knots.
Winds are expected to decrease this evening. However, there will
also be an increasing risk of MVFR cigs as we head into the
evening and overnight hours. At the coast, winds are expected to
remain elevated into the overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Moderate onshore winds and seas up to 4ft across the nearshore
waters, and 5 to 6 ft well offshore will persist through the
weekend. Small craft should exercise caution this weekend as gusts
up to 20+ kts can be expected. Winds and seas may reach advisory
levels early next week as several disturbances move through the
region. A daily risk of showers and thunderstorms is also expected
through the end of the upcoming week.

Hazardous beach conditions are expected through at least early
Monday. Persistent onshore winds could potentially result in
localized minor coastal flooding, particularly during times of high
tide. Latest model guidance continues to indicate water levels
between 3.4 and 4.0 ft MLLW during high tides along the Bolivar
Peninsula and Galveston Island through early Monday. Strong rip
currents are also expected and have been confirmed by the Galveston
Beach Patrol. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect through at
least Monday morning.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  88  74  90  76 /   0  20  20  20
Houston (IAH)  88  76  89  77 /   0  20  20  10
Galveston (GLS)  84  76  85  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Sunday morning for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion