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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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838
FXUS64 KHGX 150804
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
304 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, TROPICAL...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate Risk (Level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall through
  Wednesday, mainly near the coast. Rainfall rates of 2-5"/hour
  are possible.

- Trough/Low could meander into the northwest Gulf late Tuesday.
  30% chance of tropical development. Moderate to strong winds
  could develop over the coastal waters. Cannot rule out gusts
  possibly to Gale.

- Moderate to high risk of rip currents each day. Elevated tides
  may lead to minor coastal flooding, especially on
  Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A dangerous weather pattern is beginning to take shape over SE Texas
early today with hazardous weather conditions anticipated through
late in the work week. A cold front is already making its way
through the Brazos Valley early today with reports of flooding
already ongoing over Burleson. The environment over SE Texas is
poised to be moisture rich and highly optimized for rainfall
efficiency. Forecast soundings for this morning will be a textbook
example of heavy rainfall. Deep saturation, skinny CAPE profiles
with a deep warm cloud layer spanning around 16,000ft. TPWs based
on Satellite imagery are already at 2.3 inches, though model
guidance indicates that these values could vary from 2.1-2.6
inches at times. These values all fall well beyond the 90th
climatological percentile, even exceeding the max/daily max record
for this time of the year. The frontal boundary will continue to
serve as a lifting mechanism, producing additional showers and
thunderstorms as it marches south and eventually stalls over SE
Texas, resulting in numerous showers/storms throughout today.
We`ll also be underneath the front-right entrance region of a
longwave trough aloft as well, which should further enhance
rainfall.

The heavy rainfall threat will continue to increase
into Tuesday with the introduction of another X-Factor in the
forecast. A trough of low pressure currently over northeastern
Mexico is expected to drift north-northeast towards the Texas
coastal bend. There is still some uncertainty with respect to how
this low will evolve these next few days. It could maintain
strength as a low/trough or deepen/strengthen, maybe even undergo
tropical development (30% chance from NHC within the next 7 days).
Regardless, it will still lend some hand in enhancing rainfall on
Tuesday, continuing into Wednesday as this system tracks
eastwards. Such situations like these (low/tropical wave passing
through deep tropical airmass) have been efficient rainfall
producers in the past, and model QPF totals have shown very
impressive amounts over this time frame.

With all this in mind, a Moderate (level 3/4) Risk of Excessive
Rainfall will be in effect for portions of SE Texas, mainly along
the coast, from Monday morning through Wednesday. Rainfall totals
of 2-7 inches are generally forecasted. However, these totals are
likely to fall over a very short period, with rainfall rates of
2-4"/hr expected, up to 5"/hr possible, especially near the coast.
As a result, some areas could receive very localized, high-end
amounts. Flash flooding will be possible, especially in urban and
low lying areas with poor drainage. Prolonged rainfall may also
result in rises in rivers, creeks and streams, with runoff
becoming more likely as soils become saturated. Moderate Rainfall
Risks are seldom issued, only when there is a chance for
significant, impactful flooding over the area. For perspective,
around 1 out of 5 fatalities from flooding occur on a Moderate
risk day. Make sure to have multiple ways of receiving warnings
and remain weather aware!

Strong winds may also develop along the coastline as well from
Tuesday night through Thursday, though it is contingent on the
strength and positioning of the low/trough. The heavy rainfall
threat, broadly speaking, should decline on Thursday, though a
Slight (level 2/4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall will still be in
place over the area. The flooding threat should diminish into
Friday. Ridging will slowly rebuild over the Gulf with rain
chances decreasing into the weekend.

There will also be a moderate to high risk of rip currents for the
next several days as well. If you plan to go to the beach, swim near
a lifeguard, if possible, and be sure to avoid swimming near any
rocks, jetties, and piers where rip currents frequently occur. Above
normal tides and some isolated minor coastal flooding will also be
possible along the coastline at high tide as well.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Showers and thunderstorms along and north of I-10 are currently
moving NE should being to weaken in the next few hours. Winds are
generally out of the S/SSE and become light and variable
overnight. Expect a lull in precipitation this evening and
overnight, before ramping up again tomorrow morning. As the
frontal boundary pushes south,from early tomorrow morning through
tomorrow evening, expect scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms at terminals throughout the day. As for CIGS, an IFR
deck is expected to move in from the north tomorrow morning,
mainly effecting KCLL, KUTS, and KCXO. Elsewhere, MVFR CIGS are
expected tomorrow morning before lifting to low-end VFR in the
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas of 3 to 6 feet
are expected early next week. Scattered showers and storms will
become more widespread this morning as a weak front stalls out
over SE Texas. A low/trough may enter the northwestern Gulf late
on Tuesday. This system could bring moderate to strong onshore
winds and higher seas late Tuesday night through Thursday. Models
are showing a wide range of wind speeds currently, with forecast
confidence low at the moment. Regardless, winds could potentially
reach 20-30 knots. Gusts to gale cannot be ruled out either. Seas
could reach 7-10 feet, potentially up to 14 feet at times. This
strong onshore flow will result in a moderate to high risk of rip
currents with elevated tides around 3.1-3.5 ft (MLLW). Wednesday
and Thursday morning, these water levels could reach 3.8-4.3 ft
(MLLW), which may result in minor coastal flooding.

03

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A trough of low pressure currently over northeastern Mexico is
expected to drift north-northeastward over the next few days. Late
Tuesday night into mid week, this feature may move into the
northwestern Gulf near the Texas Coastal Bend. Currently this low is
not expected to develop into a Tropical Cyclone, with formation
chances from NHC at 30% within the next seven days. Though
regardless of tropical development, heavy rainfall is likely and
dangerous marine conditions are possible. Rainfall rates are
expected to be around 2-4"/hr, with 5"/hr possible near the coast.
Moderate to strong winds could develop across the waters and bays
late Tuesday night through Thursday. Gusts to gale are possible.
Seas may reach 7 to 10 ft, possibly up to 14 ft.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  80  73  82  74 /  90  70  60  10
Houston (IAH)  84  75  81  75 /  80  80  90  50
Galveston (GLS)  88  80  85  81 /  40  70  90  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

     Beach Hazards Statement until 10 AM CDT this morning for
     TXZ436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...MLG
MARINE...03
TROPICAL...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion