Skip to main content.

National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

Related quick links> 5 Day Forecast, Local Advisories, Drought Monitor, UV Forecast, Air Quality Forecast 
540
FXUS64 KHGX 211202
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
602 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances increase overnight into Wednesday in association
  with a weak surface trough and some upper level disturbances.

- Arctic Front pushes through Friday afternoon/night, bringing
  various winter hazards over the weekend:
    - Extended periods of below freezing temperatures along with
      hard freezes for parts of the area Saturday night, Sunday
      night, and Monday night.
    - Low Wind Chill Values, potentially near 0 in northwestern
      areas.
- Risk of Freezing Rain, Sleet/Ice Pellets
    - Hazardous marine conditions.

- Residents are encouraged to winterize their home and make plans
  to keep themselves and loved ones warm during the work week
  prior to the arrival of the Arctic air.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1257 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

I already know what most of you are here to read about...given the
anticipated winter weather event coming up this weekend, I`ll split
this discussion up into a technical overview of the synoptic
environment followed by a rundown of what`s expected, what`s still
uncertain, and the anticipated impacts (impact-based). So, if you
want to skip all of the sciency jargon (please don`t!), then go
ahead and skip ahead to the impact-based discussion. Sound good?

Sciency Summary
---------------

It`s easy to gloss over that we have a 60-80% chance of rain on
Wednesday. A developing surface trough will continue moving eastward
through southern portions of Texas leading to PW values surging into
the 1.2-1.5" range (90th percentile: ~1.33") along and south of I-10
on Wednesday. Combine that with a frontal boundary approaching
portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods Wednesday afternoon and
various embedded shortwaves AND speed divergence aloft AND a 30-35
kt LLJ...and we have widespread rain showers. There`s definitely no
shortage of lifting mechanisms Wednesday! There will be a shortage
of instability though for most of the day. On Wednesday afternoon,
there could be a few isolated thunderstorms along the coast, but
even that`s stretching it as most of the high-res guidance keeps
MUCAPE generally below 300 J/kg. Rain chances stick around into
Thursday along the now diffuse and stalled frontal boundary. Above
normal temperatures stick around into Thursday as well with high
temperatures on Wednesday in the upper 60s to low 70s and in the low
to upper 70s on Thursday. High temperatures on Friday will be
dependent on the progress of an Arctic front, but areas generally
along and south of I-10 can expect highs in the upper 60s to low
70s. Now...onto the Arctic cold front and winter weather.

An Arctic cold front pushes through Friday afternoon into Friday
night. One thing to note is that model guidance tends to underdo
these shallow Arctic airmasses, which is why we tend to trend
towards the colder side of guidance...this is important to note when
we talk about Sunday. At the middle and upper levels, a cutoff low
will approach from the southwestern CONUS leading to a surge of
moisture and precipitation that lasts into early Sunday. The
question becomes how quickly do we drop below freezing for a
changeover to freezing rain/sleet. With a warm nose likely exceeding
more than 2km aloft, chances of snow are slim to none for the
majority of the precipitation window...but we`ll get back to that
later. Freezing rain is expected to begin as early as very early
Saturday morning across portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods
and gradually expand southward as temperatures drop below freezing.
Uncertainty remains in exactly how far south this goes though.
That being said, with this forecast package I brought freezing
rain all the way down to the coast given the colder model trends.

Some drier air may infiltrate around 700-850mb on Saturday
afternoon, which may lead to a brief dry period (this is also
uncertain). Either way, our precipitation chances extend into Sunday
morning/afternoon. As the surface cold layer continues to grow on
Saturday up north, a changeover to sleet is possible by Saturday
afternoon. Depending on exactly how long the moisture sticks around,
we could see the warm nose shrink enough to support a few flurries
reaching the surface up north at the very tail-end of the event on
Sunday morning, but those chances are fairly low at the moment. So,
the predominant wintry precipitation for this event will be freezing
rain and sleet. However, even if an area only sees liquid rainfall,
the freezing temperatures on Saturday night and Sunday night could
lead to elevated roadways freezing leading to hazardous travel
conditions. This is a good segue into the discussion of
temperatures/wind chills, which I`ll lump into the impact-based
portion of the AFD.

Impact-Based
-------------

Sub-freezing temperatures are expected areawide Saturday night,
Sunday night, and Monday night...and a few more nights into next
week. Portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods will also
see sub-freezing temperatures on Friday night. We are also
anticipating a widespread hard freeze (temperatures below 24
degrees) on Saturday night and Sunday night with northern areas
dropping into the low to mid teens. We`re still talking air
temperature here...when we factor in the northerly winds, things
will feel A LOT colder. Wind chill values on Saturday night and
Sunday night will range from near 0 degrees in the Brazos Valley
to the low to mid teens around the Houston metro area. This would
likely necessitate an Extreme Cold Warning, so be sure that you
have ways to stay warm even in the event of power outages (mainly
a concern for northern areas).

Will we get above freezing in the daytime hours over the weekend? It
depends on where you`re located. Portions of the Brazos Valley and
the Piney Woods have the potential to see sub-freezing temperatures
from Saturday morning all the way into Tuesday...that`s 72+
consecutive hours of sub-freezing temperatures. Our latest
forecast is currently reflecting locations around the Houston
metro area seeing sub-freezing temperatures for around 40
consecutive hours, which means we are not expecting to get above
32 degrees on Sunday. This is due to the anticipated ice and
northerly winds advecting that colder air southward. That also
means that Monday`s daytime temperatures may continue to trend
downward as well if the ice remains in place. This means that
travel conditions across portions of the Brazos Valley and the
Piney Woods will likely be hazardous Saturday into Tuesday.
Hazardous travel conditions extend southward mainly for elevated
roadways during the Saturday night to Monday morning period.
Pipes may freeze and burst if not properly insulated and
protected.

With freezing rain/sleet potential now extending down to the coast,
it`s important that we further discuss the anticipated hazardous
travel conditions. There is a high probability of freezing rain
and sleet across the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods, and with an
extended period of below freezing temperatures this means that
travel conditions are likely to be severely impacted. For areas
around the Houston metro area and southward, our main concern will
be for ice accumulations along overpasses and elevated roadways
especially Saturday night through Monday morning. Some locations
may briefly rise above freezing on Sunday afternoon, but any
lingering moisture will refreeze on Sunday night into Monday
morning. Ice accretion and wind could also lead to power outages,
so it`s important that you take the time now to prepare.

There is still have plenty of time to prepare for the upcoming
hazardous weather conditions. If you have a plan in place, you`re a
step ahead of the game! If you don`t, now is a good time to make
one. Be sure to know the hazards of heating your home especially in
the event of a power outage. Ensure that generators are only used
outdoors and away from windows, and make sure that you have a carbon
monoxide detector (with fresh batteries) as well. Never use a gas
stove to warm your home and never plug a space heater into anything
other than directly into an outlet. Make sure your family and
friends are aware of the forecast and that they have plans to stay
warm as well. Road conditions (especially elevated roadways) will
likely be hazardous over the weekend, so please keep that in mind
before deciding to travel.

For additional winter safety information, visit `ready.gov` and
you`ll see a section titled "Winter Ready" right at the top of the
page. You`ll be able to find all of the information above and
more. Taking a few steps now to prepare makes a big difference.
Be prepared and stay up to date on the latest forecast.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 542 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

MVFR/IFR CIGs moving in with the rain band that is currently
draped from SW to NE across the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods.
Expect this band to continue a SE progression through the day. At
the same time, have some showers moving north from South Texas
this morning, impacting areas along and south of I-10. These are
producing mostly drizzle compared to the showers north of the
metro. Timing of arrival of northern band of showers looks to be a
bit quicker than originally foreast. Currently looking at IAH
experiencing SHRA as early as 13Z. Expect SHRA to continue through
the duration of the day, and tapering off shortly after sunset.
CIGs and VSBYs anticipated to deteriorate overnight through
Thursday morning to MVFR/IFR levels. Fog may become dense at
time, and may reach LIFR levels.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1257 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Winds will remain elevated through early Wednesday morning in the
Gulf waters as a coastal trough continues to develop and move
eastward. As a result, caution flags remain in effect. This coastal
trough will also lead to widespread Wednesday morning into Thursday
afternoon. An isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out, especially
during the afternoon hours on Wednesday. Water temperatures in the
bays and along the immediate coast range from the upper 50s to low
60s. Southeasterly winds will gradually increase dew points into the
low to mid 60s by Wednesday afternoon. This leads to the potential
for sea fog Wednesday night and Thursday night. This fog may be
locally dense at times, especially Wednesday night into Thursday
morning.

A strong Arctic cold front pushes offshore late Friday night with
strong northeasterly to northerly winds prevailing in its wake
through the weekend. Small Craft Advisories will be needed for this
period with sustained winds in the 25-30 kt range and elevated seas
in the 8-11 ft range. Gale force gusts cannot be ruled out.
Widespread precipitation is expected late Friday into Sunday behind
the front. While the precipitation type along the immediate coast is
anticipated to be liquid, there are some areas along the northern
and central portions of the bays that have the potential for
freezing rain Saturday night into Sunday morning. Additionally,
we`ll monitor for the potential for another round of abnormally low
water levels in the bays during low tide cycles, so be sure to stay
up to date with the latest forecasts.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  69  54  70  56 /  70  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)  69  60  72  60 /  80  30  20  10
Galveston (GLS)  67  60  67  60 /  70  30  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 AM CST early this
     morning for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion