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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

378
FXUS64 KHGX 271708
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1208 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There will be a moderate to major heat risk daily through early
  next week. Peak heat index values between 102-107F (39-42C)
  through Tuesday.

- High rip current risk along area beaches through the weekend.

- Low to moderate rain chances return towards the middle of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Water vapor imagery late this morning reveals a stout upper trough
across the Desert Southwest and a shortwave over the Ohio Valley.
Upper level ridging in place aloft will keep us mostly dry over the
next few days. Latest CAMs are hinting at some very isolated
activity tomorrow, generally along the sea-breeze. However, not too
confident in this outcome as we will see increased subsidence and an
influx of some drier air from a plume of Saharan Dust that will
arrive through the weekend. Rain chances increase into the 20-40%
range by the middle of next week as the ridge lifts northeast,
opening the door for a few upper level impulses to rotate around the
southern periphery of the ridge.

The main concern continues to be the warm and humid conditions
across the region. High temps will warm into the low to mid 90s.
There won`t be much relief at night as lows only fall into the mid
70s to low 80s. Heat indices should remain just below advisory
criteria, generally 105-107 degrees. This will pose a moderate to
major heat risk across southeast Texas. The latest probabilistic
heat risk guidance hints as a low (10-15%) chance for some locations
to experience an extreme heat risk daily through the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Patchy MVFR ceilings exist this morning, mainly in the vicinity of
CLL, with more spotty instances further south and east. These
will mix out or lift to VFR by mid-morning. Another round of MVFR
ceilings is possible during the early morning hours Sunday with
highest probabilities north and west of Houston. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Southerly winds
may gust to 20-25 kt at times late this morning through this
afternoon and again during the daytime hours Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Moderate southerly winds and 3 to 5 foot seas will prevail
through the weekend. There is a high risk of rip currents along
area beaches through Sunday morning. Rain chances will remain
very low through early next week...increasing to the low to medium
range by mid-week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  95  78  96 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  79  94  79  95 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  84  89  84  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TC
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...TC

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion