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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

098
FXUS64 KHGX 151111
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
611 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another day with warm and conditions and an isolated shower or
  two before cooler weather arrives.

- Cold front pushes through the region on late tonight and Friday
  morning, bringing gusty north winds and much cooler conditions
  through weekend.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected in the wake of the front. A
  Gale Watch is in effect.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

One more day of above normal temperatures and low chances of an
isolated shower til things cool down as the much awaited cold
front passes through.

Later this evening and overnight, coastal troffiness across the
western Gulf will probably increase in coverage near the coast
and offshore. Further inland, after midnight, we`ll likely see a
thin area of scattered shower & isolated tstm activity develop
along the low level convergent zone with the incoming front.
Rain totals should be negligible for the most part.

This front is fairly strong for this time of year, supported by a
southward push of a 1040mb high tracking through the cntl CONUS.
Guidance continues to trend faster and colder...and as such I`ve
made the associated adjustments to the forecast Fri-Sun. Wind
Advisories will likely be required at some point as breezy-windy
conditions are expected in the wake of the front.

A gradual warming/modifying trend begins early next week as the
ridging tracks off to the east...but just to more seasonable
levels and not to the warm conditions we`re currently
experiencing. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Southeast flow and isolated showers are expected again today.
Like yesterday, afternoon and early evening winds could become
occasionally gusty over 15 knots. A strong cold front is expected
to push through the region late tonight into Friday morning. A
broken line of SHRA is possible along the front, w/ the best
chance of SHRA occurring at CLL and UTS. Strong northern winds are
expected in the front`s wake Friday morning and afternoon, with
potential for gusts over 30 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Moderate onshore winds and 3 to 5 foot seas will prevail through
tonight. Rain chances will increase, moreso in the Gulf waters,
later tonight in advance of a cold front forecast to push into the
waters early Friday morning. Look for a wind shift to the north in
the early morning hours, followed by an increase of 20-30 knot
north winds during the day, and further increasing to close to
gale conditions and much higher seas by Friday evening. A Gale
Watch is in effect beginning at 1pm Friday. Details in regards to
the specific timing and wind strength is somewhat uncertain, but
mariners should note that trends have have been for a faster,
stronger front. This Watch and possible warnings may need to be
adjusted back to Friday morning, especially Freeport westward,
should these trends continue. Winds and seas should begin to
slowly subside late Saturday into Sunday, but still remain
somewhat elevated. 47

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

North winds 15-30 mph with higher gusts are probable Friday into
Saturday in the wake of the passing cold front. Though breezy to
windy conditions are likely, RH values appear to be above Red Flag
Warning criteria. That said, caution is strongly advised with
outdoor burning. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  91  63  69  50 /   0  40  10   0
Houston (IAH)  91  69  76  53 /  20  20  20   0
Galveston (GLS)  88  74  80  61 /  30  60  50   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion