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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

925
FXUS64 KHGX 010520
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1220 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warmer conditions expected Sunday into Monday.

- Cold front showers/thunderstorms on Tuesday. A few heavier
  thunderstorms possible.

- Autumn-like air behind the front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

In the near term, light and variable winds along with abundant
low- level moisture will result in low clouds and areas of fog
through early this morning. Latest HREF/RRFES guidance shows
probabilities of visibility at or below one mile around 40 to 65%,
with low to medium probabilities elsewhere. Fog could be dense at
times and is expected to dissipate by mid morning. Otherwise, a
warmer and drier day is anticipated today and Monday as a mid-
level ridge moves in, providing increased subsidence across the
region. Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 80s with
overnight lows in the upper 60s and low 70s.

The next rainmaker arrives by Tuesday as a deepening longwave
trough moves over the Plains, dragging its associated cold front
southeastward across SE TX. This trough will enter the western
CONUS today, amplifying and deepening across the Rockies through
Monday. At the same time, persistent warm and more humid surface
flow will continue to surge inland from the Gulf, keeping PWs in
the 1.5 to 1.9 inch range. As a result, showers and thunderstorms
are expected ahead of and along the frontal boundary. Latest
guidance, including the NAM brings the boundary across our
northwestern counties early in the morning, though most solutions
show a slow progression, pushing the front off the coast late
Tuesday into early Wednesday. Regarding severe weather potential,
the greatest probabilities remain north of our region; however,
with decent deep layer shear, a few strong to severe wind gusts
cannot be ruled out. Localized heavy rainfall is also possible
given the slow progression hinted at by deterministic models.
However, uncertainty remains regarding where the axis of heavy
rainfall will set up as it will depend on the evolution and timing
of the FROPA. While rainfall will provide much needed relief to
our ongoing drought, isolated localized flooding cannot be ruled
out. Will continue to monitor the evolution and progression of the
low/FROPA today and Monday for specific local impacts.

A drier airmass filters in behind the FROPA, resulting in relatively
dry conditions. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles, including AI keep low
level moisture across the region as a weak trough moves through on
Thursday. Kept PoPs low in line with NBM guidance, leaving only a
slight chance for Thursday. Overall, low rain chances remain in
the forecast for the remainder of the week with near seasonal
temperatures.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

Low-level moisture and light winds overnight bring expansive IFR
conditions (even LIFR for some sites) between 05-15Z Sunday.
Widespread fog should dissipate following sunrise, but the low-lying
ceilings linger until late morning. Afterwards, VFR conditions will
persist through Sunday afternoon. Light winds dominate the entirety
of the TAF cycle - VRB, but generally from the E/NE. By around 02-
06Z Monday, MVFR ceilings redevelop, mostly around the coast and
east of I-45.

BSM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

Light east to southeast flow and seas around 2 to 4 ft are expected
today. Southeasterly winds will gradually strengthen Monday ahead
of an approaching cold front that will move over the Gulf waters
by Tuesday evening. Showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead
of and along the front. A few storms may become strong, capable
of producing gusts of 35 to 40+ knots. Moderate to strong
northwest winds and seas of 3 to 5+ ft will be possible late
Tuesday into Wednesday. Caution flags or Small Craft Advisories
may be needed. Light onshore flow is expected to resume by late
week/early this weekend.


JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  66  85  67  78 /   0   0  40  90
Houston (IAH)  68  84  71  80 /  10  10  10 100
Galveston (GLS)  72  80  74  81 /  10  10   0  80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...BSM
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion