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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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774
FXUS64 KHGX 271738
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1238 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal Risk of severe weather and excessive rainfall for much
  of SE Texas on Wednesday

- Above normal temperatures in the 80s/mid 90s through Wednesday.
  Cooler with rising rain chances afterwards.

- Late April cold front should push through the area Friday night
  with cooler and breezy wx in its wake.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

If you are looking at GOES Satellite imagery this morning (or up
in the sky in the Brazos Valley) you may see an interesting cloud
feature called "gravity waves." These waves likely originated from
the storms that moved through the DFW area yesterday...While they
aren`t expected to pose any threat to our area (mostly just cool
to look at!), they could trigger a few isolated showers along
their route. Anyways, just a little nerdy side note.

For today, the weather should be relatively benign. We are in that
pattern where the sea breeze could interact with the moist and
unstable airmass over our area and produce showers and
thunderstorms as it moves inland. If storms do develop, there is
the potential for a few of them to become stronger and produce
damaging wind and hail. The probability for that is on the lower
end. Expect these conditions to continue through Tuesday.
Temperatures will be on the warmer side with highs in the 80s to
low 90s. The combination of temperatures and humidity may result
in heat indices around 100F through mid-week.


Around mid- week a shortwave trough is expected to move through
the Plains and lift NE. As it lifts, a cold front is expected to
be ejected towards SE Texas. Models have been consistently showing
it stalling in the vicinity of the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley
area. As the trough and front move into place, a subtropical mid-
level high to our south may be nudged more southward into Mexico.
Depending on how far south that feature is nudged and how far
south outflow travels from pre- frontal convection, we may see
scattered storms pop up over SE Texas on Wednesday. Initial
thoughts were that these storms would be confined to the Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods area...but the aforementioned factors could
come into play and allow storms to develop further south and east
into our area. That being said, we do remain moist and unstable,
so will need to monitor the potential for some of these storms to
become strong to severe and produce damaging wind and hail.

Additionally, PWAT values are projected to increase to around
2-2.2" during the day Wednesday (above the 99th percentile). These
values are unusually high for this time of the year (as noted by
it being above the 99th percentile). WPC has placed the majority
of SE Texas in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for
Wednesday. With short-term models coming into the picture over the
next day, I imagine that that risk area may be upgraded (WPC noted
this in their morning discussion). In any case, there will be the
potential for heavy rain and isolated flash flooding for Southeast
Texas on Wednesday.

Going into the weekend, an amplified mid-upper level shortwave
trough is expected to cross the southern plains and deepen into
Texas. Another cold front is expected to move into SE Texas late
Friday night, with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms
ahead of and along the front. Behind the front, expect breezy and
cool conditions with highs in the 70s through the weekend. Lows
through the weekend will be in the 40s to 50s.

Bailey

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 500 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Widespread MVFR ceilings will continue through the late morning
before lifting to VFR. MVFR ceilings may linger into the afternoon
closer to the coast. Another round of breezy southerly winds today
with sustained winds around 10-15 kt and gusts up to 20-25 kt this
afternoon. MVFR ceilings filter in again this evening into Tuesday
morning with the potential for intermittent periods of IFR
ceilings. There is a low potential for an isolated shower/storm
or two near the northern terminals late this afternoon/evening, so
no mention in any of those TAFs at this time.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue through the next
several days. Elevated water levels around 2.5 to 3.0 feet above
MLLW are still expected at each high tide cycle early this week. A
slight increase in winds and seas are expected beginning around
Tuesday next week. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible each day with higher rain chances Wednesday though the end
of the next work week. A modest cold front should bring moderate to
strong offshore winds Friday night into next weekend, likely
warranting at least small craft advisories.

03/Bailey

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  90  74  92  72 /  20  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)  89  76  91  74 /  10  10  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  83  77  84  75 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Bailey

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion