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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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733
FXUS64 KHGX 091858
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
158 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazardous marine conditions (winds/seas) are expected through
  early Saturday, with elevated risk of rip currents and minor
  coastal flooding.

- Lower humidity through Saturday, resulting in seasonable
  overnight lows but above normal daytime highs.

- Gradual warming trend into next week with isolated rain chances
  daily.

- Cold front on the horizon... generally around Friday-Saturday.
  Cooler fall temps and higher rain chances possible.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Isaias has reached major hurricane strength, and continues to track
north through the north-central Gulf this afternoon. Low level/sfc
flow remains firmly northeasterly across the region, thus keeping
drier wx in place through the weekend. Satellite TPW shows values of
~1.0 inch at the coast to as low as ~0.5 inches inland. Some weak
capping at 850-800mb, though model guidance shows this eroding
late in the afternoon. Cannot completely rule out a sparse
shower/storm or two, though by in large rain chances should remain
slim to none. Will once again see some breezy winds/gusts during
the afternoon with the tightened pressure gradient. Hazardous
marine conditions continue with elevated winds over the Gulf
waters (especially offshore closer to the lightering area),
building seas and swells. These swells will also bring a higher
risk of rip current and possibly some minor coastal flooding along
Gulf-facing beaches, mainly around high tide this
afternoon/evening.

On Saturday, winds will back to the north as Isaias makes
landfall, later decreasing and veering southeasterly as Isaias
moves further inland, allowing marine conditions to improve.
Onshore winds increase slightly into Sunday, improving WAA &
moisture return into next week as ridging builds overtop SE Texas.
Most of next week should see highs in the mid 80s/mid 90s, lows
in the upper 60s/lower 80s with isolated rain chances daily.

Long range guidance showers greater confidence in a cold front
occuring beyond the current 7 day forecast, as a result of a
longwave trough passing trough the central/eastern CONUS. Current
timing for the front looks to be around Friday or Saturday (16th or
17th). LREF wind direction sees a spike in members depicting a
northerly sfc flow Friday morning at KIAH (Mostly from ENS/GEPS
members). By Saturday morning, the majority of members show
northerly flow at KIAH (00z run shows ~80% of members). LREF and GFS
Ensemble suggest the coolest temperatures are most favored to occur
on Sunday. This FROPA will be the region`s next best chance of
meaningful rainfall and fall weather.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

VFR conditions will remain for the entire TAF cycle. NE winds
continue between 5-10kts inland with slightly more elevated winds
alone the coast. Overnight winds relax to LGT and VRB. Tomorrow
winds pick back up in the afternoon out of the E before shift to the
ESE before the evening arrives.

CMW

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Winds have generally been lower than anticipated, mostly around 10-
15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Galveston buoy has measured wave
heights around 5-6 ft, though increasing. With swells from Isaias,
those wave heights could still reach 6-8 ft at times through
tonight, pushing 9 ft in the lightering area. Small Craft Advisories
remain in effect through 1 AM Saturday. Elevated water levels and
minor coastal flooding will be possible at high tides today, along
with an increased risk of rip currents. Conditions improve into
Saturday with winds veering southeasterly in the afternoon, then
increasing slightly into Sunday. Showers and storms will be possible
almost daily with higher rain chances expected next week.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  61  93  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  66  93  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  74  87  78  86 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ436>439.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ438-
     439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ350-355-370-
     375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...CMW
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion