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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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015
FXUS64 KHGX 180506
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1206 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to
  develop along a cold front Saturday afternoon and evening.
  Localized downpours will be possible, which could result in
  instances of minor flooding in urban, low-lying and poor
  drainage areas.

- Seasonal conditions expected in the wake of the front going into
  early next week.

- Hazardous Marine Conditions: Moderate to strong northeasterly
  winds and building seas are expected Saturday night through
  Sunday evening following the passage of the cold front. Gusts to
  gale will be possible.

- There will be a moderate to high risk of strong rip currents
  along all Gulf-facing beaches through at least the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

The anticipated cold front is currently moving southwards through
the Central Plains, and it will be moving through SE Texas through
the day on Saturday. Before this front pushes through, the mild and
humid conditions will persist with breezy southerly winds.
Isolated streamer showers will be possible as early as this
morning as moisture increases ahead of the approaching front, then
we can expect increased chances of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon into tonight ahead of, along, and behind the frontal
passage. FROPA is looking to occur in the Piney Woods/Brazos
Valley between 9-11am, the I-10 Corridor between 1-4pm, and then
off the coast between 5-7pm. Coverage of the showers and storms is
expected to be isolated to scattered across the Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods region (although an isolated strong storm along
the front cannot be ruled out), but then increase to scattered to
widespread down to the coast as the front pushes through. High
PWATs (near 1.8-2.0") will allow for locally heavy rainfall to
occur with any thunderstorms that develop. Overall, most areas
will see up to 0.5-1.0" of rainfall, but locally higher totals are
expected. The previous two runs of the HREF and REFS showed some
isolated areas with rain totals of 3-5" from the thunderstorms
that develop ahead of the front east of I-45 along the I-10
Corridor. The area with the highest totals will largely be
dependent on where the isolated thunderstorms develop, so the area
to watch may change as we get closer to FROPA. These heavy
downpours may result in instances of minor flooding in urban,
low-lying and poor drainage areas. WPC has placed portions of
southeast Texas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive
rainfall.

While the surface front will exit the coast Saturday evening,
there will be lingering moisture behind the front that will
persist until a reinforcing front of drier conditions moves in
overnight into Sunday morning. So, expect scattered showers to
persist through the night, especially along the coast. The passage
of the cold front will also usher in breezy northerly winds
(gusts to 20-25mph in land, up to 30mph at the coast) Saturday
night into Sunday afternoon.

Cooler weather is on tap Saturday night through Monday with
afternoon high temperatures only getting into the low 70s and
overnight lows down into the 50s (maybe even upper 40s for
portions of the Piney Woods). A gradual warming trend is expected
through the remainder of the week with highs in the mid 70s by
Tuesday, near 80 on Wednesday, and then mid-80s to end the work
week.

After the cold front moves through Saturday night, the next chance
of rain arrives Monday night into Tuesday as an upper-level low
moves through the region. PWATs will rise to around 1.5-1.7" on
Tuesday, so cannot out rule some isolated downpours.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 708 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Southerly winds of 8-12kt will continue through Saturday
morning/early afternoon with occasionally wind gusts to around
20kt. VFR conditions will continue through this evening with
overcast skies around 3500-6000ft, but like the last few nights
MVFR conditions will develop between 5-7z as the clouds lower to
1500-2500ft. These CIGs will generally prevail through Saturday
night, though there may be a brief period of VFR conditions
during Saturday afternoon.

A cold front will be pushing through the region Saturday
afternoon/evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing ahead of and along the front. Will start to see coastal
showers and storms develop as early as the early afternoon, then
increase in coverage through the evening as the front moves
through the region. Winds will be gusty and variable near any
thunderstorms that develop. FROPA is expected to occur at CLL
between 15-18z, at IAH between 19-21z, and off the coast around
00z. Gusty northerly winds will develop Saturday night into Sunday
following the front`s passage. Lingering moisture behind the cold
front will allow for showers to persist into Saturday night across
much of the region until they push off the coast Sunday morning.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

While light to moderate onshore flow will continue through
Saturday afternoon, a drastic change in conditions is expected
Saturday night into Sunday following the passage of a cold front.
This front is expected to push through the coastal waters
Saturday evening into Saturday night. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will develop Saturday afternoon/evening
ahead of the front with showers lingering through early Sunday
morning due to lingering moisture behind the front. Isolated
downpours and gusty winds will be possible with any thunderstorms
that develop.

Strong north to northeasterly winds are expected to develop behind
the passage of the cold front. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect
for the Bays Saturday evening into early Sunday afternoon due to
expected wind speeds of 20-30kt with frequent gusts to gale
(around 35kt) during the late night/early morning hours. The
highest wind gusts will likely occur near the Bay entrances. A
Gale Watch has been issued for the same timeframe for the coastal
waters where winds of 25-30kt with frequent gusts to 35-40kt
possible. Very rough bay waters and seas of 5-8ft in the nearshore
waters and 7-10ft in the offshore waters are expected. While the
Gale Watch ends early Sunday afternoon, there will be elevated
winds and seas through late Sunday. Winds veer through Monday with
onshore flow expected by Monday night.

Beach Forecast: There is a high risk of strong rip currents along
Gulf-facing beaches through Saturday. There will also be increased
wave run-up and elevated tides through Saturday (high tides
running around 3-3.3ft above MLLW). Elevated tides are expected to
return early next week as the onshore flow returns.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  66  75  52  73 /  10  50  70   0
Houston (IAH)  70  82  55  72 /  10  70  90  10
Galveston (GLS)  73  79  61  72 /  20  40  80  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT Saturday for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to 1 PM CDT Sunday for
     GMZ330-335.

     Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for
     GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Fowler

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion