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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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706
FXUS64 KHGX 130546
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1146 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of dense fog, both inland and marine, expected
  tonight into Saturday morning. Dense Fog Advisories are in
  effect.

- Fairly strong cold front, and associated scattered
  showers/storms in advance, will pass through Saturday night into
  early Sunday morning. Near to below freezing temperatures
  expected north of I-10 Sunday night into Monday morning.

- Warming trend going into the middle of next week with
  temperatures back into the 70s by Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1146 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

                                 As a result, a Dense Fog Advisory
is in effect through Saturday morning. Woah...even the first
sentence has been obscured by the fog! Speaking of that,
visibilities began to decrease as early as 8pm with Angleton
reporting in quarter-mile visibility just before 8:30pm. On top of
the elevated low level moisture and light winds overnight, there
were a few scattered showers earlier this afternoon south of I-10.
This typically results in even more favorable environment for dense
fog. The fog is expected to be at its most dense in the few hours
leading up to sunrise and an hour or so afterwards (generally 4am-
8am). If you have plans to hit the roadway on Saturday morning, be
sure to take extra precautions to travel safely.

Moisture continues to increase as onshore flow persists along with
convergence along an approaching cold front leading to continuous
chances for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Shower/storm chances will be at their highest as the cold front
pushes through Southeast Texas. Additionally, another round of dense
fog is likely Saturday night into early Sunday morning until the
front pushes through. The general timeframe for FROPA looks to be
entering the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods around midnight (early Sunday
morning) and near the coast or offshore by sunrise. Once the front
pushes offshore, our attention shifts from the fog and the rain to
cold temperatures.

Saturday`s high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s and
that`ll follow a typical diurnal pattern. Sunday, on the other hand,
will be where the high temperature occurs before sunrise for most
locations due to the passage of the cold front. Temperatures will
hover around the mid 50s to low 60s throughout the day on Sunday
along with breezy northeasterly winds...so your weather app showing
a high temperature in the mid to upper 60s will be a bit misleading.
Our attention then turns to Sunday night into Monday morning where
near to below freezing temperatures are anticipated across most of
Southeast Texas. Low temperatures will range from the upper 20s to
mid 30s across the area. Houston County (not the city) could flirt
with a brief hard freeze. For what it`s worth, deterministic model
guidance came in a little bit colder and brings below freezing
temperatures down to northern portions of Harris County. The big
question is will we see freezing temperatures in the Houston metro
area. The answer is...maybe!

The latest NBM probabilities reflect a 30-45% probability for below
freezing temperatures in the City of Houston. Either way, it`s going
to be cold, so be sure to take the proper precautions to keep
yourselves and your loved ones safe. Remember to protect the four
P`s: People, Pets, Plants, Pipes (Pipes: mainly for those in the
Piney Woods). Freeze Warnings (for counties that haven`t had their
seasonal Freeze Warning yet) are likely, and we`ll at least be near
Cold Weather Advisory territory with wind chill values ranging from
the low to upper 20s across the area.

High temperatures on Monday will only top out in the low to mid 50s.
Monday will be mostly sunny, but cloud cover is expected to
gradually increase from west to east late in the day as PVA
increases along with increasing low level moisture. Onshore flow
fully returns by Tuesday, which takes us on a warming trend through
the end of the work week. High temperatures look to reach back into
the 70s by Wednesday and we could be flirting with highs in the 80s
on Thursday. From one extreme to the other in just a few
days...that`s the Southeast Texas way! Rain chances return around
midweek as well as a shortwave trough pushes through the area. This
may also result in another FROPA towards the end of the work week,
but it`s way too early to lock it in.


Very Early Christmas Outlook
----------------------------

Christmas is less than two weeks away and I`m sure some of you have
already seen what the long range model guidance trend has been
indicating for weather in Southeast Texas. Santa...you`ll want to
listen in on this too! The Climate Prediction Center`s 8-14 day
temperature outlook was updated today (or yesterday depending on
when you`re reading this) which is valid for December 20-26. It
shows a LOT of red across the CONUS and would you believe it that
the reddest of the reds is right over Southeast Texas?! That means
that there`s a greater than 90% probability of above normal
temperatures for this period...which just so happens to include
Christmas Eve/Day. Normal temperatures for this time of year is high
temperatures in the low 60s and low temperatures in the low 40s...so
there`s a 90+% probability that our temperatures will be above that.
Naturally your next question will be, well just how warm will it be?
My answer is...I don`t know! It`s way too early to know exactly what
the temperatures will be, but this time next week we`ll at least
have a general idea.

The most prominent colors are red and green. We have the red for
very likely above normal temperatures, but do we have the green to
go along with it on the precipitation outlook? Survey says....nope.
How does a nice tan sound? Maybe if you look at it long enough it
can kind of pass as gold...but yes Southeast Texas has slightly
higher probabilities of seeing below normal precipitation for the
week of Christmas. This probability is only ~37%, so there`s still
~30% probabilities of seeing near normal to above normal
precipitation. Long story short, this one`s quite a bit more
uncertain than the temperature outlook. I had been wishing for a
repeat of the Christmas miracle of 2004, but sadly the chances of
a white Christmas in Southeast TX are slim to none. I mean we
could still have fog, but it`s not the same :(

TL;DR: Christmas is very likely to feature above normal
temperatures.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1057 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Fog, dense in spots, in process of cropping up across the area and
now in the time of keeping TAFs in line with obs in the
degradation in flight conditions. Poor VSBY should persist past
sunrise, with a slow, gradual rise back to just barely VFR is
still expected late this afternoon. Non-zero chance for -SHRA this
afternoon, but still not enough confidence for an explicit TAF
mention yet. For now, that remains in the IAH extended when the
cold front approaches.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1146 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

The initial marine concern will be reduced visibility due to sea fog
and inland fog spilling into the upper bays. Model guidance
indicated the potential for widespread dense fog overnight into
Saturday morning followed by another round Saturday night into early
Sunday morning until a cold front pushes through. Outside of the
fog, light southeasterly winds, 1-3 ft seas, and chances for
scattered showers are expected through Saturday night. The cold
front looks to be near or off the coast by sunrise on Sunday morning
with strong northeasterly winds and elevated seas in its wake
through Monday morning. Gale force gusts will be possible over the
Gulf waters throughout the day on Sunday. Small Craft Advisories
will be needed Sunday morning through Monday morning, and we`ll
continue to monitor model trends for any abnormally low water
potential in the bays. Winds and seas gradually subside throughout
the day on Monday with onshore flow returning Monday night.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  60  75  51  57 /  10  20  30   0
Houston (IAH)  63  76  56  63 /  10  30  40  10
Galveston (GLS)  63  73  58  65 /  10  20  60  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for TXZ163-164-
     176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
     436>439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Saturday for GMZ330-335.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion