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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

968
FXUS64 KHGX 121722
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1222 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this
  evening. Locally heavy downpours and gusty winds will be
  possible with the thunderstorms.

- A stalled boundary and deep tropical moisture will lead to
  scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms on Monday.
  Locally heavy rainfall with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of
  Excessive Rainfall across most of SE Texas.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible on
  Tuesday. Greatest chances of locally heavy rainfall will be in
  the Brazos Valley, but isolated downpours will be possible
  across all of SE Texas.

- A gradual drying/warming trend should take shape heading into
  the second half of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1056 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Deep tropical moisture has continue to advect into SE Texas with
satellite derived PWAT values around 2.1-2.2". This high moisture
combined with daytime heating has led to the development of
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Coverage today is
expected to be mostly confined to areas along and south of I-10,
but isolated activity will be possible across the Piney Woods as
well. Storms that develop in the Piney Woods region will have the
potential to produce some locally strong wind gusts, but the
severe potential for these storms is limited.

A weak, slow-moving (and eventually stalling) boundary is
expected to sag into the area from the north on Monday helping to
enhance the shower and thunderstorm coverage to be for most of SE
Texas. This boundary combined with high PWATs (near 2.2-2.3") will
lead to scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm activity
through most of Monday with the greatest coverage expected during
the late morning through the early evening hours. A lull in the
shower and thunderstorms is expected Monday night, but additional
scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected on
Tuesday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue on
Wednesday, but chances beyond Wednesday are quite low (less than
15 PoPs).

The high PWATs this week will allow for the thunderstorms that
develop to produce localized downpours. Minor urban ponding is
expected to be the primary concern, but minor flooding will be
possible in areas of poor drainage. Overall looking at up to 1-3"
of rainfall through Tuesday with locally higher amounts of 3-5"
possible if multiple thunderstorms happen to move over the same
area.

WPC has highlighted portions of our region in their Excessive
Rainfall Outlook over the next few days:
- Today, 6/12: A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for all of SE Texas.
- Monday, 6/13: A Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for most of SE Texas,
  with the Matagorda Bay region in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of
  4).
- Tuesday, 6/14: A Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for the Brazos
  Valley area, with the rest of SE Texas in a Marginal Risk (level
  1 of 4).

Increased cloud cover and rain chances will keep temperatures on
the cooler side during the daytime with afternoon temperatures
reaching the upper 80s to low 90s through midweek. With less rain
chances heading into the end of the weekend and into next weekend,
the threat of hot and humid conditions return. Afternoon high
temperatures are expected to climb into the mid-90s by Friday, and
the parts of the region climbing into the upper 90s by next
weekend with heat indices back into the triple digits.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals for the next 18-24
hours. A few SHRA may develop this morning beginning near LBX and
GLS, then pushing northward and increasing to TSRA this afternoon.
Best timing for TSRA is from 19-01z, earlier at the Houston metro
terminals and later at CLL and UTS. There`s some uncertainty in
the onset of SHRA/TSRA, so these TEMPOs are preceded by a couple
hours of VCSH. Some gusty winds are possible in and near TSRA.
Most TSRA will fade after 01z. Cigs may drop to MVFR at CLL and
UTS late in the period. SHRA and possibly TSRA will redevelop near
the end of the period near LBX, GLS, LVJ, and possibly HOU.
Increasing coverage of TSRA is expected after 12z, so have
included PROB30s after 12z Mon for IAH.

Young

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1056 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

South to southeasterly winds around 10-15kts and 2-4ft seas will
prevail through most of this week. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms, some producing locally heavy rainfall, will be
possible during the late night to early morning hours through at
least midweek. The majority of the activity is expected to move
inland by the mid-morning hours each day, but isolated afternoon
activity will still be possible over the coastal waters. Lower
rainfall chances are expected to return by Thursday, but very
isolated overnight activity will still be possible.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  89  74  86 /  30  60  70  90
Houston (IAH)  78  90  76  87 /  40  80  60  80
Galveston (GLS)  83  89  81  88 /  50  60  60  80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Fowler

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion