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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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306
FXUS64 KHGX 131752
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1152 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant, dry weather expected today and tonight.

- Rain chances return late this weekend as a couple of upper level
  disturbances push into the region. Locally heavy rainfall
  possible Sunday.

- Colder and dry Monday-Tuesday followed by a gradual warming
  trend during the second half of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1152 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

I don`t know about y`all, but I`ve been REALLY enjoying the past
couple of days. Chilly in the morning, pleasant in the afternoon, and
nothing but blue skies...it`s just perfection! High temperatures
this afternoon will top out mostly in the mid 70s, which is a tad
bit cooler than yesterday. This is thanks to an 850mb high sliding
in from the west, which has brought ever so slightly cooler
temperatures aloft. PW values are currently around 0.6", which is
right around the 25th percentile. Dew points are mostly in the upper
40s to mid 50s right now. Going into tonight, we`ll see drier dew
points move in from the northeast. Dew points will drop into the 30s
for at least areas east of I-45 and north of I-10...and we could see
the westward extent extend further into the Brazos Valley. This is
important to note because we`ll still have clear skies. Easterly
winds will be on the rise late in the night and low-level moisture
will be gradually increasing from the southwest (we`ll discuss why
in the next paragraph). So, what does this mean for tonight`s
temperatures? It creates a scenario where our northeastern areas
will see slightly cooler temperatures than Thursday night (mid to
upper 40s) and southwestern areas will see slightly warmer
temperatures (mid to upper 50s). In the grand scheme of things
though, it`ll feel similar with widespread lows in the 40s/50s.

Now we`re gonna get into the synoptic breakdown of things as we head
into the weekend. Currently we have a ridge axis sliding in that`s
wedged between an upper level trough over the northeastern CONUS and
an approaching upper level trough over the western CONUS. Going into
Saturday afternoon, an embedded shortwave trough pushes in from the
west. Onshore flow will be strengthening beginning Saturday morning
leading to an increase of low-level moisture from the southwest.
There will still be a layer of dry air in the mid-levels (between
500-800mb) that this increasing moisture and lift would have to
battle through. So, we`re still only looking at light to moderate
rain showers on Saturday afternoon/evening as the first embedded
shortwave pushes through. The best chances for rain would be west of
I-45 (closer to the Brazos River). It is still worth mentioning that
we could see some isolated heavier downpours especially around
Matagorda Bay. Some of the latest high-res guidance supports this
potential mainly in the mid-afternoon hours on Saturday, so that`ll
be something worth monitoring. Increasing clouds and increasing
winds on Saturday will lead to high temperatures only reaching the
upper 60s to low 70s.

The next upper level disturbance pushes through the Four Corners
region on Saturday afternoon leading to surface low pressure
development near the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles. This is important to
note because this places us areas west of I-45 in the warm sector as
this low develops further and pushes southeastward. Model guidance
is fairly consistent with an axis of instability setting up south of
I-10 and west of I-45. There`ll be quite a bit shear to work with as
a LLJ moves in overhead Sunday morning. This leads to bulk shear (0-
6 km) near or above 50kt. For all my fellow weather nerds, that
means we have all four ingredients for strong to severe storms
(moisture, lift, instability, and shear) setting up generally along
the coast. As a result, SPC has outlined areas generally near and
south of I-10 in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather on
Sunday. Damaging winds and hail are the primary hazards, but a brief
isolated tornado can`t be ruled out.

Heavy rainfall will also be a threat, especially as the surface low
moves into our area. This will surge PW values near the MAX
percentile (~1.99") along the coast. The overlap of climatologically
high PW`s and numerous sources of lift creates the potential for
rainfall rates peaking above 2-3"/hr. The greatest potential of this
remains south of I-10 and along the coast. We`re still expecting
widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3" with the highest totals along
the coast. There is some deterministic model guidance showing the
potential for amounts greater than 4" along the coast, so we`ll
continue to monitor those trends to see if additional models jump
onboard. WPC has outlined all of Southeast Texas in a marginal risk
(level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall on Sunday, but those of you
along the coast have a slightly higher potential of seeing localized
flooding.

The associated cold front pushes offshore Sunday night/early Monday
morning, but lingering moisture and lift may lead to our
coolest day since mid-March on Monday! Part of that equation will be
gusty northeasterly winds that prevail in the wake of the front
throughout the day on Monday. We will likely see sustained winds
near the Wind Advisory threshold along the coast. The Wind Advisory
potential begins as early as Sunday night. Low-level moisture is
also expected to linger throughout the day leaving a blanket of low
level cloud cover throughout the day. Those two factors are
hindrances to heating. In yesterday`s discussion, I mentioned that
the high temperatures were "currently" reflected to range from the
upper 50s to low 60s. Well they still are, but I bumped those
temperatures down by a degree or two...so now those upper 50s
extends further south into portions of the Houston metro area. We
may still need to bump these down over the coming days! As far as
low temperatures go, those`ll still bottom out in the mid 40s to low
50s on Sunday and Monday night.

We`ll see a gradual warming trend through next week as high
temperatures rise into the 60s on Tuesday and the 70s on Wednesday
courtesy of ridging aloft moving in. The dry pattern looks to
persist through midweek, before slight rain chances return towards
the end of the work week.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1152 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

VFR conditions occurring at all sites, with VFR prevailing through
the period. Winds remain light and northerly through the day,
becoming easterly towards the evening into overnight hours. Look for
winds to gust to around 20 kts at GLS around 12Z Saturday. Gusts to
20 knots are expected to impact SGR/LBX around 14Z, and all other
terminals around 16Z. Expect gusts to continue through the remainder
of the period. Gusts to around 25 knots could occur near the end of
the period.

Bailey

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1152 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Benign marine conditions will persist through tonight as light
northeasterly winds this afternoon transition to east-southeasterly
by tonight. Winds steadily increase going into Saturday morning with
winds reaching the Small Craft Advisory around or shortly after
sunrise. A Small Craft Advisory will go into effect Saturday morning
and is currently extended through Sunday morning, but it will be
extended likely through Monday. These moderate to strong winds will
transition to southeasterly Saturday night with seas building into
the 7-10 ft range by Saturday night. Winds will transition to
northeasterly behind the front early Monday morning with sustained
winds in the 25-30 kt range. Gale force gusts are possible,
especially late Sunday night through Monday evening. Seas may peak
in the 10-12 ft range during this timeframe. Winds and seas
gradually subside throughout the day on Tuesday, but may remain
elevated enough for Advisories.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are also expected Saturday
afternoon/evening (around Matagorda Bay) and Sunday through Monday
(widespread). Some storms may be strong on Sunday. We`ll also need
to monitor water levels during times of high tide over the weekend
as model guidance continues to hint at peaks above 3.0 ft MLLW. The
elevated onshore flow over the weekend will also lead to moderate to
high risk of rip currents along Gulf facing beaches.

Batiste


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  50  71  54  64 /   0  10  50  80
Houston (IAH)  52  68  56  67 /   0   0  30  80
Galveston (GLS)  63  70  65  73 /   0   0  30  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday for
     GMZ330-350-370.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday for
     GMZ335-355-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion