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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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477
FXUS64 KHGX 232342
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
642 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong heat dome over the southwestern CONUS will keep
conditions dry and temperatures well-above normal over the next
several days.

- Persistent southerly flow will lead to the development of patchy
to areas of fog (some locally dense) and low clouds over the next
several nights.

- Cooler temperatures are possible over the weekend with the passage
of a dry cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

The weather is relatively uneventful and today just so happens to be
National Puppy Day (hot dog, hot dog, hot diggity dog!...IYKYK), so
let`s see how many dog puns we can unleash! Most of you encountered
patchy to areas of fog this morning (with some locally dense fog).
With onshore flow persisting, additional rounds of fog are pawsible
over the next several nights/mornings. A weak frontal boundary will
make an attempt at clawing its way into the Brazos Valley/the Piney
Woods later today. Guidance has been a bit wishy-washy on exactly
where the front will stall. If it manages to push southward enough,
then it`ll take a bite out of the temperatures with highs in the low
80s expected behind the front. Elsewhere, we`re looking at highs in
the mid to upper 80s. No 90s as of yet in the early part of the
week, but Mother Nature will fetch us even warmer temperatures by
the middle to end of the work week.

Now let`s paws for a moment and discuss tonight`s potential backdoor
cold front. As surface low pressure in north TX retrogrades
northwestward and surface high pressure in the Great Lakes region
drifts ever so slightly southeastward, it will nudge a cold front
towards us from the northeast. The front may barely nose into
portions of the Piney Woods overnight. Either way, it would be the
tail-end of the front, so it`s certainly nothing to bark at. Low
temperatures in the upper 50s are expected overnight in our far
northeastern areas, but elsewhere we`ll be relegated to sit in the
low to mid 60s.

A mid-level high (heat dome) currently over in the southwestern
CONUS/northern Mexico will gradually strengthen over the next day or
two and chase us down as it nudges eastward going into the middle of
the work week. We`re not anticipating an early preview of the dog
days of summer, but we certainly will retrieve some warmer
temperatures! High temperatures will rise by a degree or two each
day, which means some areas may reach the 90 degree mark towards the
middle to latter part of the work week. Friday may be a little ruff
as 850mb temperatures rise towards the 99th percentile (NAEFS/GEFS)
with predominantly southwesterly to westerly flow aloft. This is why
Friday has the highest probability of max temperatures reaching the
90 degree mark...even extending down into western portions of the
Houston metro area. I`m not gonna cry wolf again on reaching the 90
degree mark though, so I won`t say that it`s a lock...but the
potential IS there.

The mid-level high remains overhead through the remainder of the
work week...and over the weekend, so don`t expect rain chances
anytime soon. There`s no need to whine about the warm temperatures
lasting furever though! Assuming I don`t jinx it this time, there is
fairly decent agreement in the ensembles for us to rollover back to
seasonal temperatures over the weekend. This is due to the potential
passage of a dry cold front late Friday/early Saturday. Now again,
it`s too early to lock it in (I`ve been hurt too many times before),
but the probability for high temperatures below 80 degrees does jump
from 0% on Friday to 40-70% over the weekend...that`s definitely
something! Until then, we`ll be hounded by our dry, warm pattern
with daily chances for fog. I want to break this streak of above
normal temperatures again, so I`ll be rooting for the underdog! I
for one would like another treat of cooler temperatures...I`m
pawsitive that we`ll all be begging for a cold front when the
inevitable true summer heat commences.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

VFR through early tonight. SE winds at 06-12 KTS through this
evening, becoming light and VRB tonight into early Tue morning.
IFR-MVFR cloud decks are expected to develop overnight, along
with reduced vis due to areas of patchy to dense fog. There`s a
chance for vis to decrease to less than 1SM and cigs lowering to
VLIFR-LIFR over isolated portions of SE Texas from around 09-14Z
Tue. We will see a gradual improvement in both vis and cigs after
14-15Z for most locations. Cloud decks will continue to lift and
scatter out during the late morning to early afternoon hours and
S-SE winds will strengthen to 06-12 KTS.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and low seas (1-3 ft)
will prevail over the next several days. There will be the daily
potential for inland fog to spill into the northern parts of the
bays during the overnight to early morning hours through the work
week. Conditions will remain dry throughout the week. Monitoring the
potential for a cold front pushing offshore heading into the
weekend, which would bring a period of elevated offshore winds.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  61  86  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  64  86  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  67  77  67  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion