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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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732
FXUS64 KHGX 141120
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scatter to Widespread showers/storms early this week. Slight
  Risk (level 2 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall Tuesday through
  Thursday. Ponding on roadways and street flooding will be
  possible.

- Hot weather returns during the second half of the week with
  highs in the upper 80s/90s and heat indicies in the 90s/triple
  digits.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Starting to see a few showers pop up along the coastal areas where
ample moisture and a pocket of deep moisture convergence reside.
Expect this activity to increase in coverage as the early morning
hours progress and continue through late morning/early afternoon.
Models currently have activity winding down as the afternoon
progresses, likely as the atmosphere becomes worked over from the
morning showers and storms.

With PWAT values still in the 2.0" range, low pressure overhead,
and vorticity maxima sweeping through, expect some of these
showers and storms to produce locally heavy downpours. Once again,
SE Texas is in a slight risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive
rainfall per WPC. This will be the case for most of SE Texas
Wednesday and Thursday as well.

Rainfall totals through tomorrow night will be in the 1-3" range
once again; however, storms with heavier downpours could bring
isolated totals of around 3-7". Ponding on roadways and street
flooding could occur, especially in urban areas and low-lying
areas with pour drainage. Remember, turn around, don`t drown!

Rain chances taper off Thursday as ridging builds in overhead.
Conditions will gradually heat up going into the weekend with
highs in the upper 80s/90s. Consequently, the combination of heat
and residual moisture will result in heat indices in the upper
90s and triple digits as we get into the weekend. While most of
the area will remain dry during the latter part of the week, we
could see some showers and storms pop up along the afternoon sea
breeze as well as streamer showers during the overnight into early
morning hours.

Bailey

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

SHRA/TSRA will affect all terminals through the next 4-6 hours.
Within the TSRA, IFR/MVFR cigs are likely for the northern
terminals (from IAH/DWH northward) with VFR cigs south.
Occasionally, LIFR cigs have been observed at a few sites, but
this should cease after 12z. After 17z, most of the TSRA will
transition to SHRA, then end around 21z at all sites. VFR
conditions are expected thereafter, except for CLL where some MVFR
cigs sneak in toward the end of the period. For IAH, some TSRA may
redevelop after 15z, but more likely after 18z Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

S to SE winds around 10 to 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet are
expected throughout the week. Multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms are expected through mid-week. Some occasional
strong storms could produce locally higher winds, seas and reduced
visibility from heavy rainfall. Rain chances decrease Wednesday
and taper off into Thursday, though isolated streamer showers
will remain possible during the overnight and early morning hours.

Bailey

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  82  72  85  72 /  90  20  50  20
Houston (IAH)  81  75  86  76 /  90  20  50  10
Galveston (GLS)  87  83  89  84 /  80  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Bailey

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion