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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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FXUS64 KHGX 261816
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
116 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Band of showers and storms will move into the region late
  tonight and off to the east as the day progresses Wednesday.
  Some storms could be locally strong and also produce heavy
  downpours.

- Mariners should check the latest weather conditions and forecast
  before beginning or continuing their transits. Hazardous
  conditions are expected late tonight into Wednesday morning.

- Less active weather is anticipated for the remainder of the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and tstms will continue for the
remainder of the afternoon. They should diminish around sunset with
the loss of heating. But, later tonight we expect a band of showers
and storms to approach the region from the west as the next weather
system moves into the area.

In general, look for this band of storms to approach western parts
of the CWA around midnight +/- a few hours, move across the I-45
corridor during the morning rush, then exit off to our east in the
mid and late morning hours. PW`s between 1.9-2.1" should pool along
and ahead of this system. There appears to be enough instability to
work with to see some healthy storms, and perhaps an embedded severe
cell or two with any bowing segments. Overall, suspect this might be
one of those systems where we see some 30-45mph gusts along, and
just behind, the leading line of storms. Diffluent flow aloft should
also allow for some heavy downpours in short time periods...the type
we could see some brief 2-4"/hr rates that can produce street
flooding. On average, we`re looking for some widespread 1-2"
accumulations with localized swaths of 3-5" possible in the more
significant or regenerating cells. Coastal areas that saw the higher
rain amounts last week will be prone to quicker runoff and flash
flood threat.

Remainder of the week looks less active in terms of significant
weather. as some subtle mid level ridging builds in from the west.
It might not be strong enough to completely suppress the possibility
for some isolated/scattered diurnally driven precip, but the
added subsidence should make it a bit more difficult into the
weekend. A weak backdoor frontal boundary try to sag closer to NE
parts of the CWA Sunday, then further SW into the area early next
week which should allow for slightly better POPs/coverage. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Generally VFR conditions expected through this evening.
Scattered -SHRA are occurring near KIAH/KCXO/KUTS. This activity
will continue for a couple more hours before dissipating. Short
term Convection- Allowing Models in good agreement on an MCS
forming in the Hill Country this afternoon and pushing eastward
across SE TX during the overnight hours tonight. Have placed TEMPO
groups for TSRA with strong wind gusts (30+ knots) and reduced
visibilities in all the terminals for the initial push of the MCS.
Generally leaned toward the earlier timed solutions given the
system being progressive but timing may need to be adjusted by a
couple of hours in later updates. SHRA/-TSRA will linger through
mid to late morning Wednesday with MVFR ceilings especially for
Houston terminals and coast. Some models are showing convective
redevelopment Wednesday afternoon but this is low confidence right
now.   35/MM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 116 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

A band of potentially strong showers and thunderstorms will be
moving into the area from the west and northwest overnight. In terms
of timing, current forecasts indicate the favored time period for
the most significant weather in the Matagorda Bay area should be
between 1-5am, Galveston Bay 3am-7am, and the Gulf waters 3am-10am.
Keep in mind, these systems can, and sometimes do, run ahead of
schedule and arrive earlier. Take this into consideration before
beginning or continuing your transits. The primary risk from these
storms will be abrupt wind shifts and gusts to 30-50kt, heavy rain,
and lightning. Lingering rainfall should begin tapering off
throughout the morning and afternoon on Wednesday. More typical
seasonable weather is then anticipated going into the weekend with
light onshore winds, low seas, and slight chances of showers and
thunderstorms each day.  47

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 116 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Most streamflows in southeast Texas are at, above, or much above
normal thanks to recent rainfall, which means any rainfall will
likely become straight runoff. That being said, the current forecast
(1-2 inches) does not lead us to believe there will be widespread
river flooding with this next system, we will need to monitor rises
on area rivers, bayous and creeks especially where the heaviest rain
(3-5 inches) falls. The latest run with probabilistic QPF shows
rises to action stage across most of the river basins in southeast
Texas over the next 72 hours; however, a few spots along flashier
tributaries show minor flooding is possible. Remember that you can
monitor updated river forecasts via the NWS NWPS webpage
(https://water.noaa.gov/).  KLG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  70  79  70  85 /  90  60  20  30
Houston (IAH)  73  78  72  87 /  90  90  30  60
Galveston (GLS)  77  81  77  85 / 100  80  30  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...35
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion