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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

891
FXUS64 KHGX 091047
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
547 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast
  for the next several days...highest at the coast, slightly lower well
  inland.

- Precipitation should be diurnally driven...starting out offshore
  and near the coast late at night and in the mornings then
  transitioning inland during the day.

- High temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 90s inland
  and the upper 80s to lower 90s along the coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Elongated, flat mid level ridge currently stretches from the Desert
Southwest eastward across the Carolinas. An inverted trof across the
western Gulf, along with some troffiness moving across the ncntl
U.S. should carve out a general weakness and split the ridge (to our
east/west).  This weakness should mostly persist into the weekend,
and with a touch less subsidence to overcome, allow for chances of
scattered showers/thunderstorms on a daily basis. With lack of
significant forcing other than the seabreeze/baybreeze, these will
mostly be diurnally driven with highest coverage late at night and
mornings offshore transitioning inland during the day after some
heating. PW`s of 2.0-2.2" across the southern half of the area would
suggest the probabilities of the higher coverage being situated
there moreso than in the Brazos Valley & Piney Woods.

The eastern portion of the ridge looks to regain its strength and
gradually expand back into the region early-mid next week...not
eliminating rain chances - but allowing subsidence to put up more
of a fight. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 547 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Isolated to scattered showers have been present offshore and along
the coast near LBX/GLS for most of the early morning hours. This
sporadic coverage of coastal showers will continue through the
morning, then will be followed by increasing coverage of
showers/storms by the late morning into the afternoon with
daytime heating and the seabreeze moving inland. There remains a
little bit of uncertainty in the inland extent of the afternoon
convection, but the general timing of 18Z-00Z remains consistent
with what we have seen over the past few days. The southern
terminals are on the earlier end of that window and vice versa.
The highest confidence for convective impacts is generally near and
south of the I-10 corridor. Outside of any storms, VFR conditions
will prevail throughout the day with light easterly winds in the
morning becoming southeasterly in the afternoon between 7-10 kt.
Convection subsides after sunset and will be accompanied by a
trend towards light and variable winds going into the overnight
hours. A rinse and repeat pattern for Thursday, so anticipate
another round of early morning showers again along the coast.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Light onshore flow and low seas will prevail for the next several
days, perhaps increasing a touch by the end of the work week as the
pressure gradient slightly tightens. The main concern for mariners
will be dodging the late night and morning scattered showers and
thunderstorms. We had some reports of funnels/waterspouts the
past day or two. Environment today is similar, with a light flow
regime in place so we wouln`t be overly surprised to see a few
more reports of these. (Not abnormal in these environments,
typically short-lived, and occur in the early and mid morning
hours). 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  96  75  96  75 /  20  20  20  20
Houston (IAH)  92  78  93  77 /  40  20  40  30
Galveston (GLS)  91  82  90  81 /  60  30  50  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion