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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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959
FXUS64 KHGX 261822
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
122 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot weather with low humidity this afternoon. A gradual
  increase in humidity begins late this evening.

- Unsettled weather next week with increasing rain and storm
  chances, peaking from Wednesday into the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Moisture will begin to ease back into the area this evening, and
we will see moisture continue to gradually increase through the
forecast period. Highs for the week will start out slightly above
normal, leading to hot and humid conditions Sunday through around
Tuesday. The increase in moisture will also contribute to
isolated, diurnally-driven showers and storms during this time.

After Tuesday we will see the pattern change with increasing rain
and thunderstorm chances Wednesday through the weekend. Plenty of
moisture will be available to work with over the area as
persistent southeasterly flow in the low-levels brings in moisture
from the Gulf. Simultaneously, a deepening upper-level trough will
allow Pacific moisture to funnel through and interact with
remnants from the Pacific storm, Polo. Ensembles continue to show
PWAT values increasing to the 99th percentile towards mid-week,
and remaining in the 90th percentile through the rest of the
period.

Models continue to diverge on the timing, coverage, and rainfall
amounts. The GFS has backed off on rainfall over our area, keeping
the heaviest rainfall across the Hill Country and into North
Texas, and it remains the more progressive solution. ECMWF
continues to be the slowest solution, and also keep the highest
rainfall just to our west. While the highest rainfall amounts
continue to be forecast just to our west, the probabilities of
receiving greater than 1" of rainfall have increased to around
50-60% for the area for Thursday and Friday with the probability
of greater than 2" of rainfall around 30-40% across the area. (so
not completely bad news...) It will be worth monitoring over the
coming days to see the evolution of the trough and how it impacts
QPF. As the previous forecaster stated, the main takeaway is to
focus on impacts and not the total amounts.

To end on a bit more good news, rainfall should keep temperatures
on the cooler side, with highs topping out in the 80s for the
area.

Bailey


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

VFR conditions continue across the area for the entire forecast
period. ESE winds prevail during the day before reducing to VRB
overnight. Any ISOL showers are anticipated to remain off shore. The
SE winds pick back up tomorrow afternoon and continue through the
day.

CMW

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Marine conditions will remain quiet, with light onshore wind and
seas through early next week. Northeast to east winds will become
southeast through the weekend, with southeast winds persisting
through the week. Isolated showers and storms will be possible
through the weekend, though minimal impacts are anticipated. Look
for unsettled weather to impact the upper Texas coast towards the
middle of the week. Periods of rain and thunderstorms, along with
elevated winds and building seas are expected, with the latter two
likely reaching advisory levels.

Bailey


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  94  70  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  92  74  94  75 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  88  81  89  82 /  20  10  20   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...CMW
MARINE...Bailey

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion