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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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127
FXUS64 KHGX 171836
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1236 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry air and gusty winds will enhance the potential for fire
  spread this afternoon, particularly in areas dominated by large
  amounts of lighter, typically grassy vegetation. A Red Flag
  Warning is in effect for areas west of I-45.

- Negative tide levels are are expected to persist through at
  least this weekend, causing continued navigation issues on area
  bays. Further complicating matters, strong winds building high
  seas behind the front will generate hazardous marine conditions,
  and a Small Craft Advisory is in place on coastal waters until
  early Sunday.

- Freeze warning has been issued for several coastal counties, as
  some will experience their first freeze of the season early
  Sunday morning. Chance for a brief, short-lived hard freeze over
  Houston/Madison counties as well.

- Our next good chance for rainfall will come towards the middle
  of next week as our pattern of quickly successive weather
  systems continues.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1217 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Cool, dry and post-frontal weather continues this afternoon as high
pressure fills in across the Plains. Highs are still anticipated to
reach the 50s/lower 60s this afternoon. Relative humidity will be
particularly low this afternoon, ranging from around 30% near the
coast to the lower teens inland. Winds across the area continue
to remain elevated, generally around 5-15mph with gusts to 20mph
inland and 25mph along the coast. Fuels remain slightly dry,
generally across the western side of our CWA. Red Flag warning
remains in effect until 8pm tonight to allow for winds to subside
and RH to improve. Caution should be exercised when working with
open flames or operating equipment that can cause sparks,
especially in drier locations. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

Northerly flow will keep CAA in place tonight. Paired with clear
skies overhead and the especially dry air across the area, this
should allow for very effective cooling overnight. Lows for Sunday
morning are anticipated to drop into the 20s/30s inland and lower
40s right along the coastline. Much of SE Texas should hit the
freezing mark, outside of the inner Houston Metro and the waters/barrier
islands, which are anticipated to stay a tad warmer. Few of our
southern zones will experience their first freeze of the season,
thus a Freeze Warning has been issued for early Sunday morning.
Meanwhile, a few areas across our northern CWA, mainly Madison and
Houston county, could briefly experience a hard freeze with
temperatures as low as 22-24 degrees. However, these temperatures
will be very short-lived, only for about an hour or less, thus I
have opted against a freeze warning for a hard freeze in this
area. Apparent temperature values will feel a tad cooler,
generally in the 20s inland and mid/lower 30s in the Houston
core/coast. Short of a cold weather advisory, but nonetheless
chilly.

Along with these cold conditions, there is still a non-zero
chance for some flurries and or brief (non accumulating) sleet to
develop Saturday evening. Forecasted atmospheric conditions still
show the potential to be there, that is if moisture lingers,
upper level lift and lower level frontogenesis prove strong enough
to briefly wring out some precip, which with evaporative cooling,
could cool the lower levels and potentially produce a very short
period of flurries. Chances are low & continue to lower with new
guidance, no impacts are expected from it, but nonetheless it was
worth mentioning, as we`ve seen similar occurrences happen before
with other arctic fronts earlier this season.

Sunday will see surface high pressure pass over the area and move
off to the east, allowing onshore flow to return that evening. This
will usher in WAA and bring gradually warming temperatures and
increasing moisture into next week. Highs for Sunday should reach
the 50s/lower 60s during the daytime. Overnight temperatures will be
slightly warmer, but still cool with lows for Monday morning
anticipated to bottom out in the 30s/upper 40s.

This brief warm-up will come to a quick end on Monday as another
upper level trough is expected to send yet another cold front into
SE Texas. Current timing has it reaching SE Texas Monday
afternoon/evening, stalling out somewhere over coast/Gulf waters
early on Tuesday. Onshore flow is reestablished as a coastal trough-
feature develops over the Gulf Tuesday night. PWs quickly rise to
0.1-1.8" on Wednesday as a shortwave trough moves in from the
west. This will produce showers and thunderstorms across the area
throughout Wednesday with another cold front pushing in behind the
shortwave trough on Thursday. Guidance suggests that this front
will stall over the coast, becoming a coastal trough and ushering
in onshore flow again for Friday.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 549 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

VFR conditions prevailing at all terminals through the period.
Winds are generally out of the N this morning with the FROPA well
offshore and speeds will be around 10-25 kts, gusting to
20-25 kts (could gust closer to 30 kts for KGLS).

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1217 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Low Water Advisory remains in effect for both bays through the
weekend. Some light precipitation could develop off the coast
today, though chances are very low. Northerly winds of 15-25
knots with gusts of 25-30 knots continue in the wake of
yesturday`s cold front. The Small Craft Advisory should continue
overnight with winds and seas diminishing early Sunday morning.
Onshore winds return Sunday night. Next cold front will stall out
around the coast early on Tuesday with onshore winds returning as
the boundary gradually lifts north into Wednesday. Expect more
widespread rainfall on Wednesday and Thursday as another weather
system pushes through.

03

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 105 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

After several days without rain from a lack of rainfall on recent
frontal passages, more serious fire weather conditions may emerge
on Saturday. A new surge of drier air, will
bring relative humidity below 30 percent area-wide, even near the
coasts. RH around or below 20 percent can be expected farther
inland, dropping to around 15 percent in the driest spots. This
surge of dry air is brought in by gusty north/northeast winds,
creating a weather environment conducive to fire spread. While
previous frontal passages have had similar conditions, they have
benefited from fuel moistures around or above average. With this
dry and gusty day, however, Texas A&M fuel moisture data indicates
a drier fuelscape, with drier than average fuel moisture
beginning to emerge.

Taken together, this will create elevated fire weather conditions
for much of the area, particularly where lighter fuels less than
an inch in diameter tend to dominate. In more forested areas with
larger and heavier fuels, the dry and windy day will still elevate
fire weather concerns, but lingering moisture in these larger
types of vegetation should still provide some mitigation. A Red
Flag Warning has been issued for the portion of our area around
and west of the Brazos and Navasota rivers. This area will have
not only the driest, windiest conditions, but also fuel
environments that will respond more to these weather factors.

Beyond Saturday, we`ll need to continue to monitor conditions into
early next week, as humidity will not meaningfully return to the
area until mid-week. Fortunately, the gusty winds should diminish
by Sunday, providing a potential brake on how quickly the weather
could push fire spread, even as dry conditions persist. Another
front will also be passing through the area on Monday. Moderation
will come towards the middle of the week, with the return of more
humid air and meaningful rain chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  27  59  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  33  57  38  65 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  42  56  49  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for TXZ176-195>198-
     210>212-226-227-235>237-335>337-436-437.

     Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 8 AM CST Sunday for TXZ235>238-
     335>338.

GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CST Sunday for GMZ330-335-350-
     355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion