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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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356
FXUS64 KHGX 242323
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
623 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory now in effect through Tuesday evening.

- Very hot conditions along with a risk of an isolated
  thunderstorm continues through Wednesday.

- Chance of showers and thunderstorms increases later in the week
  as the heat eases somewhat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Upper-level ridge centered over West Texas, remains strong,
resulting in another hot day. Currently monitoring a few
disturbances moving around the eastern and southeastern edge of
the high pressure. While most of this energy should stay to our
east, over Louisiana, an increase in mid to high clouds is
possible late tonight and Tuesday, which could keep temperatures
just slightly lower. Even with afternoon surface dewpoints
dropping slightly as drier air mixes down, peak heat index values
on Tuesday will remain right around advisory levels. Highs will
still reach the low 100s in some spots, with heat index values up
to 109F. The heat "strengthens" again on Wednesday, bringing back
temperatures in the triple digits across most inland areas. Albeit
heat indices on Tuesday will be close to threshold, we`ve decided
to extend the Heat Advisory through Tuesday evening to maintain
clear heat messaging, with further extensions likely needed
through midweek.

Rain chances remain generally low through midweek due to the
strong sinking air, but afternoon shower or storm chances will
begin to pick up toward the end of the week. As the ridge aloft
shifts back to the west Thursday and Friday, more
disturbances/vorticity maxes aloft will pass overhead. The
combination of this weak energy aloft and warm, humid surface
winds will be enough to trigger scattered afternoon showers and
storms Thursday through the weekend. Rain chances have been kept
in the 20 to 50 percent range, mainly driven by peak daytime
heating and tapering off around sunset.

Temperatures toward the end of the week are progged to be
slightly cooler thanks to increased cloud cover, and better rain
chances. Highs will generally ease back into the mid 90s, giving
most areas a break from the triple digit heat.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Mid-upper level cloud debris from precipitation over portions of
Louisiana will be rotating southwestward around the periphery of
the ridge and into SE TX later this evening and overnight. Like
previous nights, we cannot completely rule out some MVFR cigs/vis
west and south of the metro area in the 10-14z timeframe. Some
additional weak upper level disturbances riding down the northerly
flow aloft will bring some isolated shra/tstm activity well to
our e/ne on Tue, but we should still see some associated SCT/BKN
clouds ~15kft. Light winds and VFR conditions should prevail. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Benign weather conditions continue with south to southwest winds
and seas in the 1 to 3 ft range through the weekend. Expect winds
shifting to the southwest and west late at night and in the
mornings, transitioning generally to the south in the afternoon
and evening with the seabreeze. Rain and storm chances (around 20
to 50 %) will be on the increase Thursday into the weekend with
the highest chances on Friday.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77 101  78 102 /   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)  80 100  80 102 /   0  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  84  91  84  94 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...47
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion