Skip to main content.

National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

Related quick links> 5 Day Forecast, Local Advisories, Drought Monitor, UV Forecast, Air Quality Forecast 
823
FXUS64 KHGX 120602
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1202 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect temperatures to climb into the mid 70s to low 80s through
  Friday, with increasing humidity and likely fog.

- A stronger system is forecast to arrive late Friday into the
  weekend, bringing the potential for scattered showers and
  thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall and isolated storms will be
  possible.

- Conditions will turn drier and warm, with more comfortable
  humidity levels from Sunday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1202 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

In the near term, a weak cold front remains nearly stationary just
south of I-10. Given the light winds, lingering moisture and a
narrow dewpoint depression of only 0 to 2 degF, areas of fog cannot
be ruled out through mid-morning.

A ridge of high pressure is building in today, leaving us with a
warmer airmass. At the surface, a weak warm front will lift north
through the day, resulting in warmer conditions this afternoon. The
good news is that it won`t be as humid, especially further inland.
However, some passing very light showers cannot be ruled out this
afternoon along the coastal counties. Some weak shortwaves embedded
in the northwest flow aloft will be riding along the ridge. This
upper forcing combined with daytime heating and lingering low-level
moisture will be enough to produce some light showers. Highs will
range from the mid 70s to low 80s. Friday will be dry, turning
slightly humid as southerly winds return.

The next weather-maker arrives this Valentine`s weekend as a strong
upper level trough tracks across the Southern/Central Plains.
Deterministic solutions, including the NAM are now in better
consensus about timing of this wave, suggesting increasing rain
chances mainly from Saturday afternoon through the night. The
exception is the CMC, which shows a more progressive wave, exiting
the region by early Saturday evening.

Discrepancies remain regarding the strength and evolution of this
system, and consequently, the location of the best dynamics and
forcing. Based on latest guidance, rain chances are expected across
all of SE TX, with the highest probabilities along and north of the
I-10 corridor. It is important to point out that the axis of highest
QPF will change as this system evolves across the Southern Plains
and West TX.

Regarding heavy rainfall and severe weather potential: southerly
warm and humid surface flow, paired with dewpoints in the upper 60s
and increasing instability, will be conducive for some strong storms
across the region. As the associated surface front moves through,
there is also the potential for training storms, which could lead to
minor street flooding or ponding. This could limit destabilization
across the region IF the wave shifts further south, bringing more
widespread precipitation to our area. Conversely, will continue to
monitor for strong to low-end severe thunderstorms, mainly
coinciding with the peak of daytime heating and surface convergence
(with the FROPA)in the afternoon and evening. If this scenario
verifies, upper jet dynamics and increasing PVA on the nose of a
strengthening LLJ will support isolated strong storms. Again,
uncertainty remains high regarding the strength and exact location
of the strongest storms and/or highest QPF. Therefore, continue
monitoring the weather forecast, especially if you have outdoor
plans for Saturday afternoon and evening.

Breezy north winds are expected in the wake of the front by early
Sunday. While this FROPA will not bring a significant drop in
temperatures, it will usher in a drier airmass with dewpoints
dropping into the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 448 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Frontal boundary stalled right along the coastline will make for a
difficult forecast the coastal TAF sites. Areas south of this
boundary are likely to see rapidly deteriorating conditions with
IFR-LIFR FLs, while areas to the north experience predominantly*
VFR conditions during the nighttime. Based on guidance, it appears
that this boundary should meander north slightly, encompassing
both KLBX and KGLS overnight. Boundary could slide southward early
on Thursday, which may result in some FL improvements during the
pre-dawn hours at KLBX. Around sunrise, some brief IFR CIGS could
develop across portions of the Metro area, in part from NE winds
and moisture advection off Lake Houston. Either way, most areas
should return to VFR FLs by 9-10am, prevailing throughout the
daytime. Anticipate another round of CIGS & fog Thursday night.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1202 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

The main marine concern is patchy/areas of fog, some locally dense,
developing overnight into the morning hours, and again tonight into
Friday. The weak cold from that brought showers along the coast
remains almost stationary between the coastal counties and the
islands. This front will serve as a focus for sea fog development.
From Friday into the weekend, expect elevated winds and seas as the
pressure gradient tightens ahead of the next FROPA. The front is
progged to move across the coastal waters by Saturday evening.
However, periods of showers and thunderstorms can be expected ahead
of the boundary as early as Friday night. Storms on Saturday could
potentially become strong. Moderate to occasionally strong offshore
winds are expected on Sunday, before weakening by Sunday night and
shifting to a more northeasterly to easterly component. Small Craft
Advisories will likely be issued through the weekend. Drier weather
and light onshore flow are expected early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  79  59  80  63 /   0   0   0  20
Houston (IAH)  80  60  77  63 /   0   0  10  20
Galveston (GLS)  67  60  67  61 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...03
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion