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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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006
FXUS64 KHGX 111118
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
518 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain/drizzle expected through mid-late morning, before
  skies become partly cloudy in the afternoon. Patchy dense fog
  possible early this morning.

- A stronger system is forecast to arrive late Friday into the
weekend, bringing potential for scattered shower and storms. While
confidence in rainfall is increasing, specific details on timing and
total amounts remain uncertain, making it important to have a Plan B
for outdoor activities.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1207 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Light rain or drizzle is expected overnight into the morning hours
as an upper-lvl disturbance and associated surface frontal boundary
move through Southeast TX. As of 1130 PM Tuesday, the cut-off
upper-lvl low was located across south-central TX with the cold
front extending just west of the Brazos Valley. Current radar is
more active than what is occurring at the surface, showing pre-
frontal activity that is not reaching the ground at most places.
However, as the night progresses, low to mid-level moisture will
increase; forecast soundings show PWATs increasing aoa 1.2 inches
toward sunrise. Showers will continue along and behind the
boundary through mid-late Wednesday morning. The best rain chances
will be along and south of I-10, where the boundary will stall
and eventually weaken as it moves offshore. In addition to light
rain, patchy to areas of fog, some locally dense are also
possible, particularly over coastal zones. Based on most Hi-res
guidance, the lowest visibility will occur near sunrise into mid-
morning.

Because this is a weak/shallow FROPA, it will not have a significant
impact on temperatures. Areas roughly north of I-10, could see a
drop in humidity levels as drier northerly air filters in. Overall,
expect skies to become mostly clear from west to east by mid-late
afternoon. Partly cloudy skies and slightly humid conditions will
linger longer along the coast.

Ridging aloft will quickly build across the region, bringing drier
but warmer conditions through at least Friday. It will be warm and
slightly muggy as southerly surface winds re-establish, bringing
more Gulf moisture into the region.

Attention then turns to this Valentine`s Day weekend, which brings
the potential for scattered to widespread showers and storms, some
of which could become strong. A stronger upper level trough is
progged to move across the Southern Rockies/Plains late Friday into
the weekend. While confidence in rain chances is increasing,
uncertainty remains regarding the QPF and timing, as there are still
discrepancies in the system`s evolution across the Southern Plains.
As of now, the highest rain amounts and better dynamics appear to be
north of I-10. The main takeaway is to continue monitoring the
latest forecast and have a Plan B ready, especially if you have
outdoor plans. This disturbance will bring a stronger, drier
airmass, resulting in less humid conditions from Sunday into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 517 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

A very weak frontal boundary is sagging into SE TX and should pull
up nearly stationary along the coast later today and tonight.
Ahead of this boundary, a mix of VFR, MVFR, & IFR cigs/vis are
ongoing as well as some isolated -ra. Look for improving conditions
mid morning onward, with prevailing VFR into the overnight hours.
This front, and slightly drier air should preclude low cig/fog for
most terminals, but will need to keep an eye on coastal locations
if it meanders/stalls just inland and we see some patchy fog
and/or lower cigs.

For aviation interests that might be heading to the El Paso area
today, you are encouraged to read the latest NOTAMs issued
overnight at tfr.faa.gov prior to departure. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1207 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Light showers or drizzle are expected through late morning as a weak
frontal boundary moves through the coastal waters. Patchy to areas
of fog will be possible near sunrise and into the morning hours.
While confidence is moderate, the environment becomes even more
favorable for fog Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. As we
head into the weekend, a stronger disturbance and its associated
surface cold front will be move across the Upper TX coast. This
FROPA is progged to bring increasing rain chances as well as
elevated winds and building seas over the weekend. Small Craft
Advisories will likely be issued through this period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  52  80  60 /  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  78  58  79  61 /  30   0  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  70  58  68  60 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...47
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion