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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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575
FXUS64 KHGX 092353
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
653 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect increasingly warm and humid conditions as the week
  progresses.

- Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms persist into next week.

- Strong rip currents expected along Gulf-facing beaches through
  the end of the week.

- Monitoring the potential for strong to severe storms early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Satellite derived PW values paints the picture fairly well of the
two spectrums of drier air and humid air. Over in the Piney Woods,
PW values remain around 0.9" which is just above the 25th percentile
(~0.73"). Down near Matagorda Bay, PW values are closer to the 75th
(~1.30") and 90th percentile (~1.52"). As a result, we have already
seen isolated showers develop down in our southwestern zones this
morning. According to the CAMs (including me), the bulk of the
activity for the remainder of the day will be relegated to areas
west of I-45...so some in the western portions of the Brazos Valley
may see some rainfall later this afternoon once peak heating aids in
increasing convective coverage. While rain chances continue into
Friday, the synoptic setup is quite a bit more interesting. Late
tonight and into Friday, there will be an embedded shortwave trough
pushing through southern Texas. As it does so though, a ridge will
be building in with 500mb heights beginning to increase as early as
Friday morning. We`ll have widespread PW values in the 75th to 90th
percentile, so there definitely will be showers/storms. The main
question is how much of the convective coverage will be inhibited by
the increasing subsidence. Some of the latest CAM guidance does
reflect reduced coverage from previous model runs, so the subsidence
will definitely play a role. This will likely be a day where some of
you get a brief heavy downpour and others stay bone dry...but that`s
fairly typical here anyway. I for one will be washing my car to
try to influence that heavy downpour to pop up down here to knock
down this tree pollen...my sinuses need a break y`all.

The ridge axis begins to slide out to the east on Saturday, so rain
chances will be higher over western areas with low-level moisture
remaining elevated. The ridge sliding out is the result of an
approaching upper level low from the Pacific Northwest. This upper
level low will play a role in our forecast in the early to middle
part of next week, so we`ll talk about that more in the next
paragraph. On Sunday, rain chances will be higher over the Brazos
Valley and the Piney Woods due to the positioning of a passing jet
streak and LLJ. PW values will peak near the max value (~1.88") in
our northern areas, so locally heavy rainfall is certainly possible.
This could lead to isolated instances of urban and small stream
flooding especially in areas with poor drainage and low-lying areas.
As a result, the WPC has outlined far northern portions of the
Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4)
of excessive rainfall on Sunday.

The previously mentioned upper level low will push into the Central
Plains in the Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe. As it does so, a dry
line will be set up to our northwest over in western Texas. Surface
low pressure develops late Monday on the leeside of the Rockies
which places us firmly in the warm sector with plentiful moisture
and instability. It`s still too early to look too much into the
exact details, but factoring all of that in along with a rather
robust mid-level jet setting up to our northwest...the ingredients
are all certainly there for strong to severe storms. SPC already has
portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods in a 15%
probability for severe weather on Wednesday. The outlook will likely
change over the coming days as confidence increases on timing and
extent of the severe weather threat. For now, it does look like the
potential for strong to severe storms is greater to our northwest,
but we`ll continue to monitor trends as next week approaches. Be
sure to stay up to date on the forecast for the latest details and
remain weather aware.

As far as temperatures go, high temperatures will remain
generally in the upper 70s to low 80s through the weekend with mid
to upper 80s likely coming early next week. Low temperatures will
range from the low 60s to low 70s, but those low 70s will become
increasingly widespread as we head into the weekend. Who doesn`t
love low temperatures near the normal high temperature?! Oh that`s
right...no one does!

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Lingering showers and thunderstorm are still present this
afternoon, but should only bring minor impacts to KCLL. Otherwise,
cloud decks are expected to continue to build overnight resulting
in multiple stations seeing MVFR CIGs with pockets of fog also
possible tonight. The combination of fog and cloud cover may be
dense enough for brief IFR conditions around KHOU and KSGR, but
confidence is too low to mention in current Package. Otherwise,
concern shift to Friday and much better chances of showers and
thunderstorms. Currently start time for storms has be around noon
with better timing for impacts to sites around 1 to 5 PM. At this
time current impacts to sites are likely to be moderate to heavy
rainfall with a low potential for lightning over or within the
vicinity of sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Southeasterly winds will continue to increase throughout the day
alongside elevated seas, so small craft should exercise caution
through at least Friday morning. Caution flags may need to be
extended further into Friday depending on the wave heights in the
Gulf waters. Another result of the increased onshore flow is the
increased risk of strong rip currents along Gulf-facing beaches
through the end of the week. Expect wave heights to remain elevated
as well due to an extended fetch of easterly to east-southeasterly
winds stretching into the eastern Gulf bringing in a swell of
elevated seas. Seas are expected to peak in the 5-7 ft range in the
Gulf waters through the weekend. Winds further increase over the
weekend and into early next week. Small Craft Advisories cannot be
ruled out. Daily chances for showers and storms will persist going
into next week, but these chances peak on Friday as an upper level
disturbance pushes through the area. Elevated winds and seas could
occur in and around thunderstorms.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  65  80  66  81 /  20  60  10  40
Houston (IAH)  68  81  68  83 /  20  60  10  40
Galveston (GLS)  71  77  72  78 /  30  60  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Friday morning for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Scoleri
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion