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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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870
FXUS64 KHGX 151935
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
235 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another day with warm and conditions and an isolated shower or
  two before cooler weather arrives.

- Cold front pushes through the region on late tonight and Friday
  morning, bringing gusty north winds and much cooler conditions
  through weekend.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected in the wake of the front. A
  Gale Watch is in effect.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Expect another warm afternoon today with highs in the upper 80s/90s.
A few isolated showers could develop, mostly near the coast, but
otherwise uneventful compared to whats coming tomorrow.

A cold front is expected to push into SE Texas early Friday morning,
bringing a significant cool down heading into the weekend. The front
should push through College Station some time around 4-7am, moving
off the coast between 10am-1pm. This won`t be a completely dry
frontal passage, as models do show some isolated convection along
the front with more scatted development near the coast due to a low
level convergence zone created by a prefrontal trough. As mentioned
before, weak dynamics and the quick speed of this front take
severe/hydro concerns off the table with these storms. Still, this
is poised to be a fairly strong cold front, with high pressure
behind the front reaching 1040-1050mb over the Plains. 925mb winds
behind the front range from 25-45 knots, the apex of which generally
falling west of the I-45 corridor. Water temperatures are in the 80s
right now, around a 15-20 degree difference between the forecasted
air temperature, which should bring especially strong winds across
the barrier islands and Gulf waters.

Northerly winds of 15-25 mph (30mph along the islands) with higher
gusts of 30-40 mph will be possible behind the cold front on Friday.
Therefore, a wind advisory will be in effect throughout Friday,
mostly for areas west of I-45/along the coast. The Gale Watch has
been upgraded to a Gale Warning, and will now take effect earlier to
account for a stronger, faster FROPA. Wind advisory will remain in
effect overnight for the barrier islands, matching the Gale Warning.

Cooler, drier air should fill in behind the front with morning lows
for Saturday in the mid 40s/mid 50s inland and upper 50s/lower 60s
right along the coast. Daytime highs will also be cooler, generally
in the upper 60s/lower 70s. The coldest temperatures are forecasted
for Sunday morning, in the lower 40s/lower 50s inland and upper
50s/lower 60s along the immediate coast. Temperatures will gradually
warm into next week as ridging builds aloft with a coastal trough
setting up over the waters.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

SE Winds and VFR conditions expected this afternoon with light
showers possible near the coast. Winds become light and VRB this
evening. A cold front will push into SE Texas early Friday
morning. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms will be
possible along and ahead of the front, in addition to brief
CIGS/VIS reduction to MVFR FLs as the front passes. Gusty
northerly winds develop behind the front, reaching 15-25 knots
with gusts to 25-35 knots possible.

JMG/03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue into tonight
with rain chances increasing ahead of an approaching cold front.
This cold front is expected to push off the coast early Friday
morning, bringing dangerous marine conditions. Northerly winds of 20-
30 knots are expected during the day, rising to near Gale-Force
overnight, with gusts of 40 knots and seas of 7-13 feet. A Gale
Warning is in effect beginning at 10am Friday. There is still a
chance that gales could begin earlier for Matagorda Bay and the
waters west of Freeport, thus additional timing adjustments to the
warning cannot be ruled out. Winds and seas begin to decrease
Saturday afternoon, though Small Craft Advisories may be needed
through early Sunday morning.

03

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Northerly winds of 15-30 mph with higher gusts of 30-40 mph will be
possible behind the cold front on Friday. Afternoon humidity will
drop to 30-40%, short of reaching Red Flag Warning levels. Still,
these strong winds and modestly dry conditions will result in
elevated fire wx conditions for Friday afternoon. Texas A&M Forest
Service has high to locally extreme fire danger for portions of SE
Texas on Friday. Caution is strongly advised when burning outdoors.

03

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

North winds 15-30 mph with higher gusts are probable Friday into
Saturday in the wake of the passing cold front. Though breezy to
windy conditions are likely, RH values appear to be above Red Flag
Warning criteria. That said, caution is strongly advised with
outdoor burning. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  64  67  47  67 /  40  20   0   0
Houston (IAH)  70  75  51  70 /  20  20   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  77  78  58  72 /  50  40   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ176-
     195>198-210>212-214-226-227-235>238-313-335>338.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 1 PM CDT Saturday for
     TXZ436>439.

GM...Gale Warning from 10 AM Friday to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ330-
     335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion