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493
FXUS64 KHGX 031135
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily chances of scattered showers and isolated
  thunderstorms with the greatest chances late Saturday into
  Sunday as a cold front moves into/through the area.

- Unseasonably warm weather persists through Saturday, then the
  cold front ushers in cooler, more seasonal temperatures by
  Sunday and extending into early next week.

- Risk of moderate to strong rip currents today into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Mostly tranquil conditions are expected tonight with cloudy skies
and southeast winds at 7-10 mph. The overnight lows will be in
the upper 60s over the Piney Woods region and the lower 70s for
the rest of Southeast TX. Winds should be strong enough to limit
fog development for most of the region.

Friday will start off cloudy, but we might see some breaks in the
clouds during the afternoon hours before becoming cloudy again
later in the evening. The highs will be a few degrees warmer,
generally in the lower to mid 80s inland and the upper 70s to
lower 80s over the coastal locations. There could be some isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the day, mainly for
areas near and east of I-45 as well as the coasts. It is expected
to be breezy again with southeast winds ranging between 12-20 mph
with gusts of around 25 mph on occasion.

We will begin to see some showers and thunderstorms moving into
the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region Friday night as an upper
level trough moves through the Plains and a cold front pushes
across central TX. Activity is to increase and expand southward
during the overnight hours and Saturday morning as the front
approaches Southeast TX. Additional shower and thunderstorm
development is expected ahead and along the front, which is
progged to move across our region from the afternoon to early
night hours. Some of the thunderstorms could become strong to
severe and SPC has placed most of Southeast TX in a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5). The primary hazards at this time are damaging
winds and hail, although the chance for a tornado cannot be ruled
out. Make sure to have multiple ways of receiving weather updates
and warnings.

The front is expected to push into the Gulf waters near midnight,
however, rain chances could continue into the overnight hours
possibly due to isentropic lifting. We will start to feel those
cooler temperatures Saturday night with lows in the lower 50s to
lower 60s. Very pleasant temperatures are expected on Sunday with
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s areawide. Additional isolated
to scattered rain chances are possible Sunday into Monday morning
as a weak shortwave moves across TX. The best chances for rain on
Sunday through Monday morning are focused over areas near and
south of I-10 and the Gulf waters. Drier conditions will a
gradual warming trend are expected Monday afternoon through the
mid-week period.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 548 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

MVFR ceilings this morning should lift in the mid morning hours
and most locations should be VFR for the remainder of the day.
There will probably be some spotty shra, and maybe an isolated
tstm, around...but confidence in terms of specific
locations/timing is low so opted not to mention attm. May need an
amendment or two should a cell pop up near a terminal. Otherwise,
gradient looks a bit tighter today and am anticipating gusty SSE
winds 13-26kt into the evening. MVFR, and possibly IFR stratus
fills back in this evening and overnight. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Caution flags for the bays and Gulf waters are in effect through
Friday morning. Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds are
expected to prevail through Saturday. Chance for showers and
thunderstorm are expected Friday. Higher rain chances are expected
Saturday into Sunday as a cold front moves through the region.
The front is progged to move into the waters Saturday night into
Sunday morning, however, rain chances could continue into Monday
morning as another disturbance pushes through. Strong northeast
winds and elevated seas will develop in the wake of the front on
Sunday morning. Winds could remain under Small Craft Criteria
through Monday. Expect Small Craft Advisories Sunday into Monday.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  86  70  78  53 /  10  20  90  40
Houston (IAH)  85  72  83  60 /  20  10  80  70
Galveston (GLS)  81  73  79  65 /  30  10  70  80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT this morning
     for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cotto
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion