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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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533
FXUS64 KHGX 191859
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1259 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Negative tide levels are are expected to persist on Matagorda
  and Galveston bays through mid week.

- Wet conditions around mid week with rainfall totals 0.25-1.0"

- Arctic Front should push through on Friday, bringing various
  winter hazards over the weekend:
- Sub-Freezing Temps and possible Hard Freeze
- Very Low Wind Chill Values, potentially to Single Digits
- Risk of Freezing Rain, Sleet/Ice Pellets
- Chance for Gale Conditions across waters and bays

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Cool and clear conditions continue today with yet another
reinforcing cold front anticipated to move through the area later
this afternoon/evening. Onshore flow will still be in place for many
areas as peak heating sets in, thus highs are anticipated to reach
the upper 50s/60s with some spots near or at the 70 degree mark.
Conditions remain fairly dry as well with afternoon RH anticipated to
bottom out around 20-30% percent. Thankfully winds with this
reinforcing front should be rather weak, helping curb fire weather
concerns. Still, it wouldn`t hurt to remain somewhat cautious when
working with open flames or operating equipment that can cause
sparks. Our reinforcing cold front pushes through the area tonight,
then stall out over the Gulf waters early on Tuesday. Onshore flow
returns Tuesday afternoon/evening as winds shift southeasterly
again, allowing moisture to build into mid week.

Wednesday/Thursday are still anticipated to be a rather wet period
in the forecast. PWs still forecasted to reach 1.0-1.7" on Wednesday
as a mid/upper level shortwave trough pushes east though TX/Mexico.
Guidance still shows a LLJ developing, though now with a large swath
of the area covered by 20-30 knots winds. Model soundings still
indicated saturated mid/lower levels with some instability
present, all be it fairly low. Still have some discrepancies
present with regards to how the event evolves as some models
want to bring a reinforcing boundary following the passing
shortwave, while others have the boundary trailing/stalling behind
it (ENS & GEPS members leaning faster with the reinforcing FROPA
while the GEFS favor slowing/stalling). Regardless, the bulk of
the precipitation will likely occur with the passing shortwave
trough. LREF rainfall totals have trended downwards since the last
forecast cycle with the top 3 clusters (composed of 78% of
members) suggesting the apex of rainfall totals to fall off the
coast and further from shore than previously shown. Rainfall
totals thus have been adjusted accordingly, now forecasted
0.25-1.0 inches with the greatest totals favored closer to the
coast. NBM 90th percentile suggest that higher end amounts could
reach up to 2.00 inches in some spots. As mentioned yesterday,
soils are dry and FFG remains much higher than our potential
higher-end totals. In either case, flooding is now much less of a
concern.

Guidance suggests that moisture will improve as the remnants of the
aforementioned front tries to lift north ahead of a strong Arctic
cold front, currently slated to enter SE Texas Friday
morning/afternoon, then off the coast by Saturday morning. This
FROPA is shaping up to be "The Big One" of the the season for us
with model & ensemble guidance showing a deep 1050mb surface high
dropping into the plains behind this front. While this surface
high does take an eastward swing in much of the guidance, SE Texas
will still get clipped by it with some rather cold temperatures.
Teleconnections all signaling a strong arctic event (per the
evening crew) with the ECMWF EFI showing values of -0.6 to -0.8
for our area.

The first concern with this arctic blast will be the cold itself. As
the last shift previously mentioned, we are VERY confident that this
strong front will push through the area, and based on the signals
currently shown, it is possible that this may end up being the
coldest airmass to hit our area this winter. The NBM is already
showing a Medium (40-60%) chance for the barrier islands to
experience their first freeze of the season with this Arctic front
during the morning of Sunday. There is already a Medium to High (40-
80%) chance that areas north of I-10/SW US-59 will experience a hard
freeze (temperatures

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion