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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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373
FXUS64 KHGX 241200
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
600 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The long stretch of unseasonably warm weather with temperatures
  10-25 degrees above normal continues. Both afternoon highs and
  overnight low temperatures will be near record values.

- Daily visibility reductions due to fog and sea fog, especially
  across the bays and coastal areas. The main threat for fog will
  be during the nighttime and early morning hours, especially
  tonight through Friday morning.

- The Last cold front of 2025 is anticipated to move through the
  area on Sunday, setting us up for some colder than average
  conditions Monday, gradually warming back up towards average
  heading into New Year`s Eve.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1148 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Get a couple days off for the weekend, come back and...the
majority of the forecast is exactly the same. This is clearly not
one of those times where "if you don`t like the weather, wait five
minutes and it will change". In this setup, with this ridge, at
this time of year, it`s gonna be more like five days. Actually,
almost exactly! We are slated for a cold front to move through
the area sometime on Sunday (probably late afternoon to early
evening, but the precise timing is still somewhat fluid this far
out).

Until then, we keep on keeping on with near-record temperatures,
humid conditions, and nightly rounds of fog, impacting the coastal
counties, bays, and Gulf waters at the least, but expanding to
some extent inland depending on each night`s specific
circumstances.

How unseasonable are these conditions? Well, if the multiple tied
records over the past few days aren`t enough indication, we can
look at how strong the ridging is, and this is where I wish I
could paste in pictures to the AFD. One handy tool for this is the
ensemble situational awareness tables for the NAEFS and EPS, and
for upper level heights, it`s just a sea of red squares saying
"MAX" through Thursday evening. Things start to break down later
in the week ahead of Sunday`s front, but by "break down", I just
mean a whole lot of 90th to 99th percentile geopotential heights.
Y`all, this is a strong ridge for late December.

In some ways, that`s probably a good thing because precipitable
water is up above the 90th percentile with the unusually high
temps and persistent onshore flow. Were we to be looking at
storms, we could get some pretty high rain rates out of this
environment. Even despite the ridging, I have some slight chances
for some real light showers near the coast. More likely, though,
we`ll experience this airmass the way we have for several days
now: regular threats of fog, especially at the coast.

My hope had been that by this point, the shallow waters would have
warmed up enough that we`d be able to see an end to the fog
threat. And while waters are warming, they are still mostly in the
63-67 degree range, near or slightly below dewpoints. And at this
point, the fog may be persistent enough even into the day, that
we`re losing precious opportunity given the low solar angle to
meaningfully put an end to the fog threat. So, while warmer waters
and a veering of winds to more south/southwesterly by Friday night
that we may disrupt sea fog formation somewhat, we can`t really
confidently say the overnight/morning fog potential will be
definitively gone until drier air surges in after Sunday`s front.

Speaking of after Sunday`s front, we finally get some real change!
First, we`ll see some of our first real chances at some rain in a
while, primarily at the coast. Because the upper levels are so
warm, we`ll still struggle to get convection going in spite of the
rich boundary layer air, so don`t get too excited. But we should
manage at least some scattered showers off the frontal surface
aloft Sunday evening.

More impressive than the rain chances will be the temperature
change. From highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s on Sunday
(assuming the front arrives too late to chop down afternoon
temps), Monday`s highs dive into the 50s for the vast majority of
the area. Some folks way up in our northern fringes may struggle
to even exceed 50 degrees. Monday night/Tuesday morning lows look
to see a light freeze return to at least the northernmost portions
of the area, with widespread lows in the 30s and even down around
40 degrees to the Gulf beaches.

This all sounds impressive, and in a way it is...but also...these
temperatures I`m describing are only 5-10 degrees below average.
So, despite the big drop in temps, and the arrival of some winter
chill, we don`t look to get unseasonably cold after this front.
Also, and stop me if you`ve heard this before already this season,
but the dip to the cold side of average doesn`t look to stay in
place for too long, either. As we head to the end of 2025, we
should see things gradually begin to make their way back upwards,
and we look to end the year on a downright seasonable note.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 541 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

A mix of LIFR to IFR conditions currently over Southeast TX due
to low cloud decks and areas of patchy to dense fog. Conditions
are expected to gradually improve after 14-15Z as fog burns off
and cigs gradually rise. Conditions may be slow to recover at GLS
and LBX due to the influence of sea fog continuing over the bays
and nearshore waters. Clouds could scatter out for several
locations in the afternoon to early evening hours. However, cloud
decks will return and lower once again tonight into Wed morning.
Patchy to dense fog will also reduce vis again for several
locations, in particular for sites south of IAH. SE-SSE winds
will be 5-10 KTS today and relax back down to 5 KTS or less
tonight.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1148 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Fog, dense in spots, continues to overspread the bays and
nearshore Gulf waters this evening. Foggy conditions will carry
into Wednesday morning. We should see some improvement mid-day
into the afternoon, particularly over the bays. On the Gulf, fog
may not entirely dissipate, but there should be a brief reprieve
from dense fog. Sea fog will likely return nightly through at
least Friday with some patches possible through the early weekend.

Beyond the fog, light onshore winds and low seas prevail through
Saturday. A cold front will move through the area on Sunday. Small
craft advisories may be needed Sunday night into Monday as strong
northeast winds develop behind the front. There is some potential
that even gale conditions could be seen on portions of the coastal
Gulf waters - something to monitor in the forecast as we head into
the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1148 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

The record high of 81 degrees was tied for the City of Houston
earlier today. With temperatures not likely to change
significantly until Sunday`s front, records may potentially be
tied or broken through the end of the week. At the very least, we
will be much closer to those records than we will be to seasonal
averages.

As a quick summary, record highs at the two Houston climate sites
(IAH, Hobby) range from 81-84 over the next five days, while
record high min temps range from 68 to 75 degrees. College
Stations records range from 81 to 86 for highs and 65 to 73 for
high mins. Galveston`s record highs range from 78 to 80 for max
temps, and 67 to 71 degrees for record high min temps.

Luchs/Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  81  63  82  63 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  80  64  80  65 /  10   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  74  64  75  64 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ178-179-
     199-200-213-214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ330-335-350-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...Luchs

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion