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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

936
FXUS64 KHGX 091732
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1132 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cloudy and cool for the next couple days with some chances of
  mainly light rain.

- Cold front is expected Wednesday night followed by drier colder
  weather for the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1203 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Mid-upper low across northern Mexico will lift northeast and across
the state Tuesday and Tuesday night. The next round of precipitation
looks to expand across south Texas in the next several hours. This
batch of rain should eventually track toward the Matagorda Bay
region and our southwest counties toward sunrise...continuing enewd
toward the I-45 corridor (generally Conroe to the coast heading into
the mid morning and lunchtime hours).

Until the upper trof axis pushes to our east, cloudy and cool
conditions will persist into Tuesday. Impulses embedded in the flow
aloft will intermittently track across the area and provide enough
lift to produce some sprinkles or light rain at times. Better
chances of accumulating rain, albeit light but much needed) should
again be across southern and western portions of the CWA. (Higher
pressure in the llvls from the ArkLatex area should sag swd will
create less saturated moisture profiles closer to the
surface...hence lower POPs across northern zones which`ll be more
prone to virga if anything).

Toward midweek, we`ll get into a drier nw flow aloft as western
ridging makes its way toward the Rockies and a deeper trof digs
across the eastern CONUS. Such a pattern will favor a cold frontal
passage (probably late Wednesday night). It should be a dry
fropa...followed by cooler temperatures filtering into the region
Thurs-Sat. They`ll be most noticeable at night with lows in the 40s.
High pressure moves off to the east Saturday, followed by a gradual
warming trend and a return of some rain chances early next week in
advance of the next western trof. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

SHRA continues to enter the region from the SW and persists until
late this afternoon or early evening. Due to the SHRA beginning
later then initially expected, lingering showers south of IAH until
22/23z cannot be ruled out. TS impacts remain low and out of TAFs,
but an occasional rumble around Matagorda Bay remains possible.
During this time, CIG/VIS reduction to MVFR or high end IFR remain
the primary impacts, particularly for KSGR/KHOU/KLBX terminals.
After the conclusion of SHRA, MVFR CIGS/VIS, due to patch fog, are
anticipated to set in overnight and last through sunrise. During the
entire TAF period winds are anticipated to remain out of the NNE
around 5-7kts at all terminals minus GLS. GLS is anticipated to
maintain a N-NE breeze around 5-10kts through the TAF cycle.

CMW

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

East and northeast winds will diminish today as surface high
pressure sinks into the region from the north and the pressure
gradient weakens. Light winds and lower seas will then continue into
midweek. Late Wednesday night and Thursday morning we should see our
next cold front push into the coastal waters followed by moderate
offshore winds and building seas. Small Craft Advisories appear
likely in the wake of the front. Winds/seas begin to diminish on
Friday, followed by a return of southerly winds late Saturday as
high pressure pushes off to the east. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  55  74  57  79 /  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)  56  76  60  79 /  30  10  20  20
Galveston (GLS)  64  74  66  75 /  40  10  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 PM CST this evening
     for GMZ330-350-370.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...CMW
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion