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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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330
FXUS64 KHGX 161857
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
157 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and humid through the end of the week with only a few/spotty
  showers.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
  along a cold front Saturday afternoon and evening. Heavy
  rainfall will be possible, which could result in instances of
  minor flooding in urban, low-lying and poor drainage areas.

- Seasonal conditions expected in the wake of the front going into
  early next week.

- Marine and Beach Conditions: Moderate to strong northeasterly
  winds and building seas are expected Saturday night through
  Sunday evening following the passage of the cold front. There is
  also moderate risk of rip currents along all Gulf-facing
  beaches through at least the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Fair weather conditions prevail across the region with partly cloudy
skies, breezy southeasterly winds and afternoon temperatures in the
low to mid 80s. With the sfc high pressure to our east (centered
over northeastern Gulf), warm and humid conditions will prevail
through early this weekend. Another warm and muggy night is expected
with skies becoming cloudy overnight. Patchy low-lying fog cannot be
ruled out. Lows will generally be in the low 70s.

A similar day is on tap for Friday with highs generally reaching the
low to mid 80s. A tightening pressure gradient ahead of a deepening
trough over the central Plains and an approaching cold front will
result in a breezy day with gusts from 15 to 25 mph at times, mainly
in the afternoon.

Increasing rain chances and breezy to windy conditions are the main
weather story this weekend as the well-advertised cold front make
its way towards southeast TX. The aforementioned trough will
continue to push the cold front through Texas late Friday into early
Saturday. With persistent warm and humid southerly flow and mid-
level vorticity maxes aloft, pre-frontal showers with a few storms
cannot be ruled out in the morning. Latest guidance brings the
boundary across the Brazos Valley region early in the morning,
reaching the Houston metro area by early Saturday afternoon and the
coast by early evening. The severe weather risk is low, but will
continue to keep an eye on potential excessive rainfall. Models show
some areas with PWAT values in the 1.6 to 1.9 inch range; which is
near the climatological maximum for this time of year. Therefore,
pockets of heavy rain are possible, leading in minor street
flooding in urban, low-lying and poor drainage areas.

A cooler and slightly drier air mass will filter in behind the
front, by early Sunday. Highs will generally remain in the low to
mid 70s. Drier conditions will prevail across most of the region,
but a few showers will be possible across our far
southern/southwestern counties due to high PWs and the return of
southeasterly warm winds.

Mid to upper level ridge sets up across the Rockies/Plains by late
Sunday/ early Monday; however some weak disturbances embedded in the
west to southwest flow aloft will keep daily rain chances in the
forecast after Monday. As of now, the best rain/storm chances will
remain confined to our southwestern counties.

Near seasonal temperatures are progged for early next week with
highs in the upper 60s to low 70s on Monday and in the 70s by
Tuesday.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

MVFR cigs are ongoing at most terminals this morning, though IFR
cigs have developed near CXO, IAH, and SGR. Have generally
included IFR cigs (either prevailing or TEMPOs) from SGR/IAH
northward for the next couple hours. Cigs will rise to VFR by this
afternoon with breezy SSE winds. Cigs will once again drop to MVFR
later tonight.

Young

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Surface high pressure centered across the northeastern Gulf will
continue to maintain onshore winds across the Upper Texas coast.
Small craft should exercise caution, especially over the bays and
nearshore waters, as moderate seas and southeast winds of 10 to 15
knots with gusts up to 20 knots prevail until the arrival of the
next cold front on Saturday.

Scattered showers and storms are expected along the frontal
boundary. The primary impacts will be elevated winds and building
seas in the wake of the front. Winds from 20 to 25 kt with gusts up
to 30 knots and seas 8 to 10 ft well-offshore will be possible late
Saturday into Sunday evening. Near gale-force gusts cannot be ruled
out at times, particularly late Saturday night into early Sunday.
Small Craft Advisories will likely be issued. Light to occasionally
moderate east to southeast winds and seas around 3 to 5 ft will
return and persist through the upcoming week.

Beach Conditions: Persistent onshore winds will keep the potential
for elevated tide levels through at least Saturday, with some
locations forecasted to rise at or slightly above 3.0 ft (MLLW).
There is also a moderate risk of rip currents along all Gulf-
facing beaches through the weekend.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  88  68  87  68 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  87  70  85  71 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  80  73  79  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 PM CDT this evening
     for GMZ330-335-350-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion