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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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777
FXUS64 KHGX 270459
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1159 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally dry with seasonable temperatures (highs mainly in the
  low to mid 80s and overnight lows mainly in the 50s and 60s).

- Most locations will remain dry, though locations west of the
  metro area may see isolated to scattered rain/storms mainly on
  Wednesday.

- Rain chances slightly increase in coverage Friday into the
  weekend in association with some upper level disturbances
  passing through Texas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Broad ridging will persist across the eastern and southeastern
CONUS, while persistent troughiness remains positioned to our
west. This pattern will continue to bring relatively dry
conditions and seasonable temperatures across the region this
week.

A weak upper trough will continue to lift northeastward across
the Southern and Central Plains overnight/today, resulting
primarily in mid to high cloudiness across Southeast TX. Low to
mid level moisture increases slightly for areas west of I-45,
particularly across our southwestern counties. This could result
in isolated to scattered showers/storms, mainly in the afternoon
with peak daytime heating through Thursday.

The pattern aloft will become more zonal to southwesterly heading
into the end of the week and into the weekend. This will allow a
few shortwaves embedded in the flow to move overhead. Depending on
the amount of low to mid level moisture available, this pattern
could potentially bring chances of rain/storms Friday through
Saturday afternoon. At the moment, will continue with a 20-40%
chance of rain, centered mainly west of I-45 where forecast models
suggest higher moisture content resides.

After a lull in precipitation late Saturday and Sunday, we will
continue to monitor the next rain and storm chances likely
arriving along and ahead of a cold front early next week. It
remains too far out for specific details, so we will keep an eye
on its overall evolution in upcoming forecast updates.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Could see brief patchy fog in spots early Tuesday morning, though
chances are low and impacts will be minimal if any. Isolated
showers may develop in a few spots west of I-45 on Tuesday, though
coverage and chances remain too low to warrant inclusion with
this TAF package. Winds become light and variable tonight. VFR
conditions continue to dominate throughout current TAF cycle.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

A long fetch of easterly flow will persist through most of the
week, leading to moderate onshore winds and seas generally 3 to 5
ft. Occasional higher seas are possible offshore at times.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
daily, as different disturbances move through the region. The best
chances of rain/storms will be near the Matagorda Bay region and
adjacent Gulf waters.

Beach conditions: Will continue to monitor for isolated/minor
coastal flooding. P-ETSS guidance suggests water levels around 3.0
ft MLLW, particularly during times of high tide tonight through
the rest of the work week.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  60  82  61  84 /   0  10  10  20
Houston (IAH)  62  82  65  85 /   0  10  10  20
Galveston (GLS)  71  80  71  81 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 AM CDT Tuesday for
     GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...03
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion