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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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577
FXUS64 KHGX 150424
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1124 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - A Heat Advisory is in effect through early Tuesday evening for
   much of the area.

 - Isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
   through the week, mainly along the coast. Rain likely along the
   coast Thursday.

 - High temperatures will generally persist in the mid 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1113 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

A broad upper low continues to spin over the Tennessee Valley
bringing generally persistent weather to our area, with hot and
humid conditions continuing through the week. A Heat Advisory
remains in effect through early Tuesday evening. Heat indices up to
109F are possible during the daytime hours. Additional diurnal
convection looks to develop during Tuesday morning and will track
eastwards through the afternoon. Storms again will be isolated and
look to be confined to the coast. Any storms late-morning should
mostly stay south of the I-10 corridor, tapering off through the
afternoon. After a quiet night, Wednesday will see similar
conditions overall, however the timing of more widespread convection
along the coast looks to return to the afternoon time frame with a
few stray storms potentially moving into northern portions of the
forecast area. In any case, these will not amount to much.

The aforementioned upper ridge will continue to shift eastward into
Thursday. A surge of tropical moisture will accompany this with GFS
PWATs in particular approaching an impressive 2.5". The latter would
bring more favorable precipitation/convective parameters, however
the former will make the cap much stronger and would inhibit storm
development. The best precipitation chances will occur in the
morning along the coast before the greatest capping develops during
the afternoon/early evening hours and the aforementioned moisture
surge moves west of our area. The ridge will become elongated from
north to south over central Texas Friday into the weekend and become
squeezed between a trough to the west and a closed low to the east.
This should all yield minimal PoPs, although the heat and humidity
will continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Diurnal pattern continues as cloud decks once again lower to around
1500-2000ft overnight. These could briefly fill in to produce MVFR
CIGS early Tuesday morning, mainly north of I-10. Isolated patchy
fog will also be possible in spots during the early morning, mainly
in fog prone locations like KCXO. CIGs/Fog should clear around or by
the late morning hours. Showers/storms are also expected to develop
over the coast early Tuesday morning, shifting inland during the
afternoon. Any convection that does develop should tapper off into
Tuesday evening.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1113 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Light SE onshore winds will continue in the near-term, peaking near
15 kts later tonight. Winds will back to a more due easterly
direction on Wednesday and increase to 20 kts from east to west on
Thursday, before slightly diminishing on Friday. Seas of 2 to 3 feet
will persist through Wednesday, increasing to 4 to 6 feet on
Thursday due to the aforementioned wind increase. These will subside
into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  99  76  98 /   0  10   0  10
Houston (IAH)  78  95  78  94 /   0  20   0  20
Galveston (GLS)  84  92  83  92 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>213-226-227-235>238-313-335-338.

GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AP
AVIATION...03
MARINE...AP

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion