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FXUS64 KHGX 181115

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
615 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions will prevail today with mostly clear skies and
light winds. There is a chance of some patchy fog and lower CIGs
tonight, but it looks to impact mainly west of Houston. SGR and
LBX will be the TAF sites that will have the best potential of
seeing MVFR to IFR conditions from about 9 to 15z. Saturday will
see increasing high clouds through the day with some scattered
cumulus filtering in by the afternoon/evening.



.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 425 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019/...

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Saturday Afternoon]...

Water vapor imagery shows the upper level low that has been moving
over Texas the past day or so is beginning the exit into the Gulf
this morning. This disturbance helped spawn some isolated
thunderstorms near Galveston over the past couple of hours, but
drier air filtering into the region should bring a stop to any
shower by sunrise. There may be a few lingering clouds during the
morning hours, but increasing subsidence behind the upper level low
will bring mostly clear skies through the afternoon. This combined
with max temperatures around 10 degrees warmer than yesterday will
provide fairly pleasant day to southeast Texas. Tonight will also
see the continuation of the mostly benign weather, although some
patchy fog may develop across the western portion of the region.

Saturday will see the warming trend continue with max temperatures
climbing into the mid to upper 80s across most of the area. However,
heights will be lowering through the day as an upper level trough
passes through to the north. All guidance but the GFS has no
precipitation reaching our area until around 00z Sunday (the GFS is
the wettest solution with some showers forming during the afternoon
of Saturday). So for this package I only have an increase of clouds
during the day while keeping PoPs under 10 percent through 00z.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Friday]...

Zonal flow aloft should set the stage for some quick changes as a
weak cold front (not much in the way of cold...more a function of
a dry Pacific cold front) dips down into the northern areas late
Saturday and may see some showers or isolated thunderstorms
develop over the coastal waters or coastal counties early Sunday
morning. The boundary stalls then moves back north as a warm front
with showers and thunderstorms becoming scattered with heating and
shifting into the northern counties in the afternoon. As an upper
trough takes shape and deepens Sunday night/Monday will quickly
draw deeper moisture back into the area as LLJ strengthens keeping
winds up overnight into Monday. The associated cold front swings
through and should produce a wide band of showers/thunderstorms
along the front tracking across SETX. Widespread rainfall of 0.5"
with isolated higher amounts appears more likely with confidence
increasing in the widespread QPF. The cold front moves through
SETX Monday between 4 am and noon. Weak high pressure builds into
the area with dry air blanketing the area. Cooler and drier
weather with high temperatures on Monday peaking in the upper 60s
to mid 70s followed by lows in the 50s. High pressure shifts east
and moisture surges back into the area Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday with rain chances increasing with the next cold front
Thursday night or Friday morning.


Winds across the Gulf have been decreasing over the past few hours
resulting in the expiration of the SCEC. Light to moderate
northeasterly flow will continue through the day today becoming
southerly tonight then southwesterly tomorrow. Southerly winds will
increase ahead of an approaching upper level trough over the
weekend, then increasing to at least SCEC criteria by Monday as a
passing cold front ushers in a strong northerly flow.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen is currently located in the
central Gulf moving northeasterly towards the Florida Panhandle,
making landfall on Saturday. The cyclone should stay far enough east
to bring only minimal impacts to the Texas coast. The largest impact
would be only slightly elevated seas up to three to five feet this
weekend. Tides may also be slightly elevated, but the quick nature
of the system should keep tides from increasing too much.




College Station (CLL)  80  60  88  67  89 /   0   0   0  10  30
Houston (IAH)          79  62  87  70  87 /   0   0  10  10  30
Galveston (GLS)        76  71  84  77  86 /  10   0  10  10  20






NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion