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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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859
FXUS64 KHGX 271113
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
613 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat building this week with temperatures in the upper
  90s/100s and heat indices of 104-112F. Heat Advisories likely at
  times during the upcoming work week.

- Patchy fog possible during the early to mid-morning hours for at
  least the next few days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Hot, then even hotter. Maybe some rain late in the week. The end.

Oh wait you`re still here?! That pretty much sums up the forecast
period, but I`ll gladly add some more context! High temperatures
on Sunday topped out in the low to mid 90s once again, which seems
"cool" compared to what`s ahead for the work week. The 596-598
dam mid-level high (the heatdome) is currently centered near the
intersection of TX/OK/CO/NM...so it`s continuing to gradually
nudge eastward towards the Central and Southern Plains. Going into
Monday, the heatdome begins to slide into north TX where it`ll
remain through at least midweek. 850mb temperatures will gradually
increase each day leading to a gradual climb in high
temperatures. Expect temperatures to top out in the upper 90s to
low 100s throughout the work week. We haven`t even talked about
everyone`s favorite word this time of the year...the humidity.

South-southwesterly to southerly surface flow should keep dew points
elevated (low to mid 70s) closer to the coast. Further inland, we
should see dew points mixing out into at least the upper 60s to low
70s in the afternoons during the work week. The air temperatures
will be high enough though that we`ll still see heat indices peaking
near or above the Heat Advisory threshold (greater than 108 degrees)
at times this week, especially Tuesday and beyond. Speaking of Heat
Advisories, we decided to hold off again on issuing one for Monday.
While a few sites will reach criteria again, we aren`t expecting
it to be widespread enough to warrant issuing an advisory. Tuesday
and beyond has much better potential for Heat Advisories.

There won`t be much relief overnight with low temperatures mainly in
the upper 70s to low 80s. The atrocious humidity overnight will
result in occasional rounds of patchy fog in the early to mid
morning hours for at least the next few days. PW values decrease
going into Monday closer to the 10th percentile (~1.36") through at
least midweek, so rain chances will be slim to none for most of the
work week. Towards the end of the work week, the heatdome begins to
retreat westward a bit which looks to open the door for our next
chance of showers/storms. Yesterday we talked about how ensemble
guidance shows the potential for surface low pressure developing in
the Southern Plains late in the week that may bring a frontal
boundary nearby over the weekend. The potential for this is still
there, and the synoptic flow would support it as an an upper level
trough pushes through the eastern CONUS over the weekend. This
coincides with increasing moisture, and thus we do have rain chances
in the forecast for the weekend! To get there though, we`ll have to
make it through the triple digit heat of the work week...and even
then it`s not likely that all of us will see rain!

With heat indices expected to be near or above Heat Advisory
criteria over the next several days, please keep heat safety at the
top of your minds for any plans that you make (especially if
outdoors). Know the signs of heat-related illnesses, stay hydrated
(with water), take frequent breaks from the heat, wear loose/light-
colored clothing and sunscreen, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS LOOK before
you LOCK your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the
ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for
their paws.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

VFR conditions expected today and into the overnight hours. Can`t
completely rule out some patchy late night/early morning fog for
areas along I-10 & west of I-45 as SREF hints at. But for now,
will just add the mention for high end MVFR at CXO/LBX in the 12z
set of TAFs and see how things trend. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

A period of benign marine conditions continues with light to
occasionally moderate southerly/southwesterly winds and 2-4 ft seas
prevailing well into next week.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  97  76  98  77 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  99  78 100  79 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  91  83  92  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion