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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

657
FXUS64 KHGX 071930
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
230 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday and
  Saturday.

- Widespread rainfall totals manageable. But locally much heavier
  totals could result in localized flooding Friday-Saturday.

- Early next week looks drier, but uncertainty exists regarding
  the pattern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 104 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Through Saturday, the primary weather system of interest will be
the mid/upper trough over SW CONUS. The system will be introducing
increased lift while throwing a smattering of vort maxes our way
over the next few days, especially Friday and Saturday.
Considering the PWAT rich environment and the potential for the
frontal boundary offshore to lift northward towards the coast,
this set up should at least bring a decent chance of scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms to SE Texas Friday and Saturday.
However, it`s possible that a vort max or two or three could
provide sufficient lift for deeper convection, setting the stage
for a few stronger thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall. It`s
unfortunately difficult to say exactly where these heavier
showers/thunderstorms will occur. But if I had to guess, it would
be somewhere in our southern and/or coastal counties, where PWATs
will be highest and lift could be enhanced by the aforementioned
boundary. The harder thing to predict is the timing. I have been
burned in the past for trying to predict exact thunderstorm timing
in a scenario featuring vort maxes swirling around in a moisture
rich atmosphere. Friday afternoon through Saturday morning appear
to be the time frame of most concern. Not every location will
receive a heavier thunderstorm. But those that do could experience
localized flooding and perhaps strong gusty winds. Temperature
wise, we suspect Friday will struggle to reach 80 (much like
today). Saturday looks warmer, with highs in the low 80s.


The system departs the area by Sunday, which potentially sets us
up for a drier period early next week. But note I used the word
`potentially.` There are a few things that could go wrong in the
Sunday - Wednesday time frame. The first is the prospect of a NW
flow pattern with disturbances embedded in the flow aloft. The
pattern can be a signal for more thunderstorm activity, especially
this time of year. However, I am unsure how long this pattern
will hold. Sunday / Sunday night appears to be the primary
suspicious time frame, especially with the prospect of another
cold front pushing southward into our area. Drier air in its wake
should keep PoPs low on Monday. But after that, there are multiple
moving parts in the pattern that add some uncertainty to next
week`s forecast. The NW-flow pattern could try to hold as moist
returns. A UL subtropical jet over Mexico could disrupt the NW-
flow pattern. There`s also ensemble disagreement regarding an
eastward progression and breakdown of the mid/upper ridge. A more
persistent ridge axis to our west would tend to keep us in the
pattern for longer. A ridge right over us would make us bone dry.
For now, the early week forecast remains dry.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

IFR-MVFR ceilings currently across SE Texas this morning,
gradually lifting after 15Z. There is a chance for skies to
scatter out a bit in the afternoon, however, some locations may
remain under VFR BKN/OVC skies. Expect N-NE winds at 10-15 KTS
with gusts of around 20 KTS at times. Winds will decrease in the
evening and turn ENE. MVFR ceilings are expected to develop again
overnight Thu into early Fri morning. On Fri, the chance for
showers and storms return as a mid-level disturbance moves across
TX.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 104 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Moderate northeast winds over the Gulf will subside this evening.
Winds will veer east then southeast going into Friday and
Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday
afternoon through Saturday morning, possibly into Saturday
afternoon. Locally heavier thunderstorms capable of strong winds
are possible. A period of moderate NE winds is possible on Monday
behind a cold front. This should be short-lived, with winds
veering onshore by Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  64  76  67  81 /  10  60  70  50
Houston (IAH)  68  78  70  83 /  10  60  80  70
Galveston (GLS)  74  81  75  82 /  10  50  70  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 AM CDT Friday for
     GMZ335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion