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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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347
FXUS64 KHGX 241729
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1229 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory remains in effect.

- Very hot conditions along with a risk of an isolated
  thunderstorm continues through Wednesday.

- Chance of showers and thunderstorms increases later in the week
  as the heat eases somewhat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1121 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

The forecast through Wednesday remains unchanged due to the
continued presence of strong mid/upper ridging aloft. Triple digit
heat should reign supreme across inland regions, while highs at
the beaches average in the low/mid 90s. Lower dew points will mix
down to the surface during the afternoon. But even with this
mixing, heat index values are expected to reach or exceed advisory
criteria today, and possibly again tomorrow and Wednesday. There
may be a little more in the way of clouds on Tuesday, which could
help keep us a tad less hot and below advisory criteria.
Regardless, hazardous heat will occur through Wednesday. An
isolated shower/storm cannot be ruled out. Monday-Tuesday PoPs are
~10%.

Global deterministic and ensemble guidance has trended towards a
breakdown in the ridge during the second half of the week. This
breakdown may be modest, with ensemble mean 500 MB heights only
dropping from 595 dam to 592 dam. But the breakdown coupled with
increasing disturbances aloft are leading to an upward trend in
PoPs for the latter portion of the week (Thursday - Saturday).
With increasing clouds and PoPs comes less hot temperatures. Most
of the CWA is forecast to be in the seasonably miserable mid 90s
by Friday and Saturday. The recent hot and dry spell has placed
the area on a trajectory towards drought. So hopefully the
increasingly wet signal late week is a trend that continues in
future updates.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

VFR conditions will generally prevail through the period with
south to southwesterly winds around 8-12kt (with lower winds
expected during the late night hours). Winds will remain
southerly during the afternoon and early evening periods, then
turn southwesterly within a few hours after sunset and persist
through the late morning hours. There may be brief periods of MVFR
conditions at CLL, UTS, and CXO near daybreak (between 13-15z)
with CIGs down to around 2000ft, but the chances are low enough to
not include in the TAF for now (or at least only last for 200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion