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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

411
FXUS64 KHGX 251553
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1053 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1041 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are still possible near the
  coast, but overall today will be rain free. High temperatures
  will rise into the mid to upper 90s inland and the lower 90s
  over the coasts with heat indices will be in the lower 100s.

- Chance of showers and thunderstorms should rise again on Tuesday
  and Wednesday as a weak boundary approaches (but likely doesn`t
  push through) from the north-northeast. Additional rain chances
  are expected through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1041 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025

High pressure building over the Southern Plains will lead to
continued drier, but hotter, conditions across the area today.
PWATs are expected to be down to around 1.2-1.5" this afternoon,
which is low for this time of year. Drier air, increasing heights,
and plenty of sunshine will lead to the return of mid to upper 90s
across most of the region (and I wouldn`t be shocked if a few
isolated areas reached the 100 degree mark). While dew points are
expected to be lower today, the higher actual temperatures will
still lead to heat indices rising into the lower triple digits
across the area. With the drier air in place, rain chances today
will be very low - although can`t out rule a brief isolated shower
or storm during the afternoon along the coast.

PWATs begin to rise tomorrow, up to around 1.7-2", in response to
a weak boundary approaching from the northeast. This increase in
moisture will lead to better chances of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. The aforementioned boundary that approaches from
the north tomorrow may end up stalling within, or just to the
northeast, by Wednesday. This will keep those higher PWATs in
place across SE Texas leading to continued chances of daily
showers and thunderstorms starting out along the coast in the
morning, then moving inland through the day. High temperatures
across the area Tuesday through Friday are expected to be in the
low to mid 90s, with some areas reaching the upper 90s
occasionally.

Another boundary is expected to approach, and potentially move
through, the area over the weekend. This will lead to greater
chances of showers and thunderstorms and cooler temperatures.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 533 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025

VFR conditions & light winds will be the rule again today &
tonight. Seabreeze might make it into the Houston terminals later
in the afternoon bringing some SE winds. Can`t rule out an
isolated rouge tstm or two, but chances are too low to include in
the TAFs at this time.

47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1041 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025

Light onshore winds, around 10kt, and low seas will prevail
through this week. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is
possible today, but rain chances increase beginning Tuesday
through the end of the week as a weak boundary approaches from the
north. Another boundary may slide through the area over the
weekend leading to scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Expect gusty, variable winds and locally higher
seas near any thunderstorms that develop this week.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  98  72  96  73 /   0   0  10  10
Houston (IAH)  99  76  96  77 /   0   0  30  20
Galveston (GLS)  90  83  89  82 /  10  10  40  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Fowler

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion