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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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995
FXUS64 KHGX 151854
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1254 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers/isolated storms persist as a cold front
  pushes through Southeast Texas today. Some locally heavy
  downpours may result in localized flooding, especially near the
  coast.

- Strong marine winds continue through Monday, then become
  moderate through Tuesday. Gale Warning in effect for Galveston
  Bay and the Gulf waters. Small Craft Advisory in effect for
  Matagorda Bay.

- Cooler temperatures persist over the next few days with a
  gradual warming trend midweek and beyond.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1254 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Let`s begin with what happened last night/early this morning as that
plays a role in how the rest of the day will go. So, the initial
upper level disturbance combined with low level convergence led to a
pocket of moderate rainfall generally right along the coasts of
Matagorda and Brazoria Counties. These areas received roughly 2-4"
between yesterday evening and this morning and even resulted in the
issuance of a Flood Advisory. As you can imagine, the air in this
region has been worked over as a result. If you take a gander at
visible satellite, this area has managed to see quite a few peeks of
sunshine in the morning hours. That`s where the next caveat comes
into play though. The associated warm front with a developing
surface low remains off of the coast...and it doesn`t look too
likely that it`ll make it much of the way inland. At most, we could
see the warm sector peek into the coastal areas around Matagorda Bay
but that`s about it. The best chance that we have at seeing any
stronger storms today will be as the front begins to push off the
coast and comes into contact with more destabilized air.

Overall, both the flooding threat and the severe threat have
decreased today. WPC has downgraded the slight risk (level 2 of 4)
to just a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall, but it
still extends for all of Southeast Texas. The main area of concern
for additional localized flooding will be right along the coast of
Matagorda and Brazoria Counties where the 2-4" fell over the past 12-
18 hours. SPC has trimmed the marginal risk (level 1 of 5) to
essentially be right in the previously mentioned areas as well.
Elsewhere, we can expect light to moderate rain showers with maybe a
few rumbles of thunder here and there with additional rainfall
totals of 0.5-1.0". Depending on if and when the rainfall becomes
more convective along the coast, we could see areas right along the
coast receive up to an additional 2" of rain...keeping in mind that
the grounds are very saturated in the previously mentioned coastal
spots just east of Matagorda Bay.

The cold front itself (as of ~12pm CST) has already pushed through
the majority of the Brazos Valley and is peaking into
northern/western portions of Harris County. With an early-ish FROPA,
you can imagine that temperatures aren`t going to do much warming
today. High temperatures will range from the upper 40s to the upper
50s north of I-10 and low/upper 60s south of I-10. We may see some
spots around Matagorda Bay peak into the low 70s. The other big
story of today (and into Monday) will be the winds...especially
along the coast. We`ve already seen wind gusts along the coast near
40 mph earlier this morning...and that`s not even the strongest
period of winds we`re expecting. As the front and associated surface
low pushes off the coast later this evening, we`re expecting a
period of strong northeasterly winds along the coast and offshore.
Overnight, we may see sustained winds in the 30-35 mph range with
gusts exceeding 40 mph. Winds do look to subside earlier than
originally anticipated, so the Wind Advisories now run through 12pm
Monday.

Speaking of Monday, model guidance has come into consensus on drier
air filtering in quicker than previously anticipated. This means
that cloud cover will gradually push out from northeast to southwest
through the day, which means high temperatures will be able to peek
into the low 60s east of I-45. West of I-45, the cloud cover may
hang on just long enough to keep high temperatures mostly in the
upper 50s. As far as overnight temperatures go, we`ll see lows in
the mid 40s to low 50s tonight. Expecting widespread 40s on Monday
night...which if this verifies would be our coldest night of the
season thus far.

We begin our warming trend on Tuesday as a ridge moves in from the
west. We`ll go from high temperatures in the 60s on Tuesday to the
low 70s on Wednesday to the upper 70s beyond that. The dry pattern
looks to persist through midweek, then the ridge axis slides out to
the east. There may be some modest moisture return west of I-45, but
for the most part PW values look to remain below the 75th percentile
through the work week. An embedded shortwave and/or diffluence aloft
may bring some isolated showers in our far western areas towards the
end of the work week, but overall most of us remain dry till the
weekend. While rain chances are in the forecast over the weekend,
the synoptic pattern remains uncertain. There looks to be an upper
level trough that pushes eastward from the Four Corners to the Upper
Midwest, but if it`s far enough south to push a front through is
uncertain for now. If you`re not tired of reading yet, we go a bit
beyond the forecast period in the next section below and there is
some vague references to this potential front/rain chances as well.

A VERY EARLY LOOK AT THE WEEK OF THANKSGIVING//
-----------------------------------------------

I`ve already gotten questions on how does the weather look on the
week of Thanksgiving. I know a lot of you have travel plans or have
family/friends coming into town, but it`s waaaaay too early to say
definitively what`s going to happen that week. However, we do have
long term trends and ensemble guidance to have a vague idea of what
that week MIGHT look like. Before we go any further, just know that
this is NOT in ANY way an official forecast...we`re essentially
going into fantasy land.

Now that those formalities are out of the way, let`s take a look at
the latest 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.
Their outlook shows that probabilities favor near normal to above
normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. That doesn`t
mean it`ll be warm/hot or that it will rain every day, but the
probabilities favor above normal temperatures and above normal
precipitation. Normal temperatures this time of year are high
temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s and low temperatures in the
upper 40s...so all that`s saying is probabilities favor temperatures
near or above that.

We also have ensemble guidance! The GEFS and Euro ensembles are in
pretty good agreement that we`ll have rain in the first half of the
week of Thanksgiving, but solutions are split on whether or not
those rain chances continue into the second half of that week. As
far as temperatures go, there is fairly good consensus on a period
of above normal temperatures following the cooldown from early this
week. This period of above normal temperatures looks to extend
through the weekend and possibly into early next week. After that,
the majority of ensemble members favor a cooldown...but exactly when
that occurs remains up in the air. The Euro ensembles favor an
earlier cooldown while the GEFS favors a later cooldown. All that to
say...it might rain...it might not...it might be warm...it might be
chilly. Hopefully that answers some of y`all`s questions for now! :)

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1254 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Poor flying conditions are expected through 12Z Monday with low
ceilings, strong wind gusts, and visibility impacts at times. The
wind shift has passed KUTS and is approaching KCXO at 1730Z. The
convective system and associated front will move across the
remainder of the SE TX terminals this afternoon. Following trends,
have removed the mention of thunder except at KLBX/KGLS. There will
remain a low chance of thunder for the inland terminals however.
Visibilities down to 2SM can be expected with the heavier showers
for about a 4 hour window as the system pushes through. Expect these
conditions roughly 19-20Z to 23-24Z for Houston area terminals and
21-22Z to 01-02Z for KLBX/KGLS. Frequent wind gusts of 20-25 kts can
be expected for the Houston area terminals through tonight with
winds veering from east to northeast following the frontal passage.
Wind gusts of 30-35 kts are likely at KGLS. Scattered -SHRA will
persist overnight with activity diminishing around 12Z. IFR/low MVFR
ceilings are likely. Improvement in ceilings and winds are expected
Friday morning.

35/MM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1254 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

A Gale Warning remains in effect for Galveston Bay and the adjacent
Gulf waters this afternoon. The coastal and offshore Gulf waters
south of Matagorda Bay will upgrade from Small Craft Advisories to a
Gale Warning at 6pm this evening. Matagorda Bay will remain under a
Small Craft Advisory. Frequent gale force gusts are expected over
the Gulf through Monday afternoon. As of right now, all of these
hazards run through Monday afternoon, but advisory level conditions
are likely to continue in the Gulf waters into Tuesday and possibly
into Wednesday. Seas in the nearshore waters have already been
reported around 8 ft. Expecting peak wave heights to be in the 10-13
ft range overnight through Monday.

As a cold front and associated surface low pushes offshore this
evening, winds will transition to northeasterly with 30-35 kt
sustained winds and gusts exceeding 40 kt. Some locally stronger
storms capable of producing strong wind gusts will be possible,
especially around Matagorda Bay as the front pushes offshore.

We are continuing to monitor water levels as PETSS guidance still
reflects peaks in the 3.0-3.5 ft MLLW during tonight`s high tide.
The strong easterly to northeasterly winds may keep water levels
elevated at low tide this afternoon. If water levels don`t drop as
much as they`re forecast to at low tide, then that means that
guidance may be underestimating water levels at high tide overnight.
Thus, we can`t entirely rule out a Coastal Flood Advisory being
issued later today. There remains an increased risk of rip currents
along Gulf facing beaches as well into Monday and possibly extending
into early next week.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  46  59  43  67 /  30  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  49  60  46  67 /  70  20   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  56  64  57  67 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST Monday for TXZ214-235>238-313-
     335>338.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for TXZ436>439.

     Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Monday for GMZ330.

     Gale Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ335.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 3 PM CST Monday for GMZ335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ350-370.

     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Monday for
     GMZ350-370.

     Gale Warning until 3 PM CST Monday for GMZ355-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...35
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion