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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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941
FXUS64 KHGX 031119
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
619 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant weather settling into the region for the remainder of
  the weekend into early next week.

- Cold front should bring scattered showers/storms Wednesday &
  Wednesday night. Some storms could become strong to severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Today will start out fairly cool with early morning lows in the
lower 50s inland (some isolated upper 40s possible) and mid 50s/60s
across the coast and Houston metro. Surface high pressure shifts
east of the area during the daytime, causing winds to shift east to
southeasterly. A small shortwave is anticipated to push over the
area early in the day, though the drier conditions and lower PWs
will make rain unlikely. A few higher clouds may develop, but
otherwise conditions will be benign. Onshore flow will enable WAA
over the next several days with highs today reaching the 70s/lower
80s.

Monday should start off a tad warmer early in the morning with lows
in the 50s/60s inland and lower 70s along the coastline. Onshore
flow will facilitate moisture return with PWs climbing to 1.0-1.4
inches throughout the day. This increase in moisture will result in
larger cloud cover, though afternoon highs are forecasted to reach
the upper 70s/mid 80s thanks to steady WAA. Some weak impulses
embedded in NW flow aloft could bring a brief shower or two, though
still rain chances are sparse for Monday.

Tuesday will be another warm and benign day weather wise. Lows in
the morning will be warm, only dropping into the mid 60s/lower 70s
with cloudy skies overhead. Cloud cover scatters out in the late
afternoon with highs forecasted to reach the upper 70s/upper 80s.
Rain chances are still low, but will rise into the overnight
period as the next weather system approaches SE Texas.

On Wednesday, an upper level trough will sweep across the
Rockies/Plains. Models are still show a dry line developing over
central Texas with a stronger cold front further to the north. The
combination of the dry line pushing in from the west and the cold
front reinforcing/overtaking it from the north should help bring
showers and thunderstorms throughout the day into the night.
Forecast models show deep moisture over the region with PWs for 1.5-
2.0 inches with a 20-35 knot LLJ early in the day. LREF guidance is
suggesting sfc CAPE of around 1500-2200 J/KG with 500mb wind shear
around 45-60 knots, though some ensemble members solutions show even
higher sfc cape to 3000 J/kg possible. With decent instability and
organization in conjunction with these forcing features, some strong
to severe storms will be possible. SPC already has a Slight (level
2/5) Risk of severe weather over SE Texas on Wednesday, mainly for
areas along/north of I-10. This is still day four of the forecast,
so the specifics of this potential severe weather event could very
likely change these next few days, so stay tuned for additional
updates.

Cooler, drier and breezy weather briefly develops on Thursday in the
wake of the cold front. High pressure moves off to the east on
Friday with winds shifting onshore during the afternoon, initiating
a warming trend yet again. Rain chances are slated to rise into the
weekend, both from rising moisture and from a series of weaker
impulses coming from a mid/upper level low which broke off and
retrograded west from the previous weather system. Eventually the
low/trough will migrate eastward, bringing some widespread rains
late in the weekend.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions with clear skies will prevail. Winds will be light
and variable overnight with southeasterly winds of 6-9kt expected
during the afternoon.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Light to moderate onshore winds return today as high pressure pushes
off to the east. Wind speeds increase Monday through mid week,
likely prompting caution flags at times. Showers and storms are
expected on Wednesday as the next cold front pushes through with
some stronger storms possible. Anticipate moderate offshore winds
Wednesday night through Thursday with caution flags likely at least.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  78  56  82  68 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  81  59  83  70 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  78  70  80  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion