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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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665
FXUS64 KHGX 270542
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1142 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A weak cold front will push off the coast overnight/early
  Friday. Patchy to areas of fog expected to develop out ahead of
  it, especially along the coast.

- Ridging aloft builds in this weekend allowing the above normal
  temperature streak to continue alongside chances for patchy fog.

- A couple of frontal boundaries approach next week, but likely
  won`t push through. One of them leads to increasing rain
  chances around midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1142 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Pop Quiz! What`s our normal high/low temperature for the end of
February/early March? If you guessed upper 60s/low 70s and upper
40s/low 50s, you`re correct! Just keep that in mind as we discuss
temperatures throughout the forecast period because I won`t even
sugar coat it...it`s borderline ridiculous to be this warm in
"winter". Goes to show ya that you can`t trust a certain groundhog
for a weather outlook! Alright I digress...but it really is warm out
there and that`s not going to change even with a "cold" front
pushing offshore tonight. 850mb temperatures will remain near or at
the 90th percentile going into next week...so the 80s are here to
stay unfortunately. Corpus Christi hit 95F on Thursday so it could
be worse, just saying! Before we take a deeper dive into the warm
temperatures, let`s talk about fog!

Water temperatures in the bays remain mainly in the low to mid 60s
with dew points in the mid to upper 60s through Friday morning ahead
of the weak frontal boundary. Dew point depressions will be around 1
or less for areas around I-10 and southward as well with high
resolution guidance fairly consistent on having a temperature
inversion right at the surface. Suffice to say, fog is likely
tonight, but only until the weak cold front pushes through. So, the
fog begins a bit widespread tonight into Friday morning but
gradually clears out from north to south as the front pushes towards
the coast. The front does look to push off the coast for a bit on
Friday, but pushes back northward as a warm front on Friday night
leading to...you guessed it...more fog! Essentially, chances for fog
during the overnight to morning hours continues into the weekend
especially for areas south of I-10.

This weak cold front does bring some benefits in the form of cooler
overnight temperatures though as we see lows mainly in the upper 50s
to low 60s through the weekend. Even though the air is slightly
cooler, RH values for most of the area will still be near 100%
overnight into the morning hours. In the day time, we`re still
looking at high temperatures ranging from the low to mid 80s going
into next week as ridging aloft builds in over the weekend. It`ll be
rather dry on Friday though in the wake of the front, but we`ll
gradually add in moisture each day to follow. We`re approaching that
time of the year where we start getting pump faked by cold fronts,
and we look at Monday as evidence. Surface low pressure develops
near the Texas Panhandle late Sunday and pushes eastward going into
Monday. The issue is the jet stream will remain to our north, and so
will this front as well. Depending on how close the front gets
though, we may have enough moisture convergence to increase cloud
cover on Monday. Hey it`s something! Another front makes an attempt
on Wednesday and there`s at least some sort of upper level trough
associated with it. As of right now though, it doesn`t look
sufficient enough to push it through here but there is a bigger
surge in moisture out ahead of it. So, rain chances do pop back in
the forecast around midweek. As you can imagine, our low
temperatures will steadily climb towards the mid to upper 60s by the
middle of next week. Remember the answer to the pop quiz? That`s
near where our high temperatures should be this time of the year!
See I got to the point eventually!

Looking even further in the future (to next weekend), things may get
a bit more active as PW values remain around the 90th percentile as
an upper level trough pushes in. It`s too early to talk about any
exacts (I`m mainly mentioning this due since there may be interest
from CPC`s latest outlook), but this does look to be our next best
chance of rain. We need some hope in the rain department as our
drought conditions steadily worsen. We haven`t seen any rainfall
since Valentine`s Day...and with ~82% of Southeast Texas in a severe
drought or worse, we need some rain y`all! Just out of curiosity, I
checked out the percent of normal precipitation for 2026 so far and
it can be summed up by two words: not good. Majority of the area is
in the 25-50% range, so any rainfall we can get would be beneficial.

BONUS ASTRONOMY NUGGET//
------------------------

I`m a huge astronomy nerd, so y`all are gonna nerd out with me for a
bit! In case y`all didn`t know, there is a Total Lunar Eclipse on
Tuesday (March 3rd) morning. For the Houston metro area, the partial
eclipse begins around 3:50am, then reaches totality (turns red) from
5:04am through 6:02am. Unfortunately, Mother Nature doesn`t look
like it`ll cooperate with us with plenty of low-level cloud cover
(and maybe some fog) expected. This is also complicated by the
altitude of the moon gradually decreasing through the early morning
hours as well. We may still see glimpses of the moon occasionally
through the clouds, but the chances of catching any clear photos of
it is on the slim side. I`ll still be out there trying though!

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 535 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Easterly to southeasterly winds between 6-10kt will continue
through sunset. A slow moving, weak cold front will slide through
the area tonight bringing a gradually northeasterly to northerly
wind shift through daybreak tomorrow. The light northerly winds
Friday morning will gradually swing back around to the east then
southeast through the day on Friday.

While VFR conditions are prevailing across the region this
evening with CIGs around 4000-5000ft, we are anticipating CIGs to
lower to MVFR then IFR through the night with areas of LIFR
conditions possible as the front moves through. MVFR conditions
with CIGs around 1500-2500ft will start first at the coast after
sunset, then creep northwards through the evening reaching IAH by
3-4z and then CXO after midnight. CIGs will lower to 600-800ft for
IAH southwards by 6-8z, and then a period of LIFR conditions will
be possible between 9-13z with CIGs down to 300-400ft. Patchy
fog, becoming dense at times, will also be possible tonight with
the greatest chances along the coast. For CLL, UTS, and CXO,
anticipating CIGs to drop just to MVFR levels between 9-12z with a
possibility of lower CIGs/fog at CXO. Conditions are expected to
scatter out to MVFR conditions across the area between 14-16z,
then VFR by 15-17z.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1142 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Offshore seas remain elevated overnight, so small craft should
continue to exercise caution through early Friday morning. The main
marine impact for the forecast period will be periods of patchy sea
fog. Areas of dense sea fog is likely overnight into Friday morning
but should scatter out by the late morning hours as a weak frontal
boundary pushes through. Onshore flow returns by Friday night
leading to the potential for additional rounds of patchy sea fog
through the weekend during the overnight to morning hours. Light
onshore flow and low seas will persist going into the weekend into
early next week. Winds and seas may increase near the caution flag
threshold around the middle of next week.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  57  84  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  63  85  59  83 /  10   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  63  73  61  70 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 3 AM CST Friday for
     GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion