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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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718
FXUS64 KHGX 152322
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
522 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Negative tide levels are anticipated in the bays this week with
  additional low water advisories possible.

- Dry cold front pushes through Friday afternoon, leading to near-
  critical fire weather conditions during the daytime on Saturday.

- Closely monitoring the potential for some light flurries
  Saturday night.

- Brief warm up on Sunday before another cold front
  Monday/Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1249 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Quiet weather continues this afternoon as surface high pressure
passes over the area today. Winds will become light and variable
later this afternoon before shifting southeasterly this evening.
Because this onshore flow is slated to return after peak heating,
highs should still be fairly cool, topping out in the 50s/lower 60s.
After onshore flow is resumes this evening, we`ll see moisture
slowly return overnight, which should help limit the full extent of
cooling. Lows for Friday morning should be slightly warmer, though
still in the 30s/40s across much of the area with some lower 50s
along the coast.

Friday will see another mid/upper level trough dig through the North-
Central Plains/Mississippi River Valley. This trough should send
another cold front towards SE Texas, which will enter the Brazos
Valley during the afternoon then push off the coast in the evening
(by midnight at the latest). PWs will still be low, forecasted to be
around 0.75" or less, thus rain appears unlikely with this FROPA as
well. Highs during the daytime should top out in the 60s/mid 70s.
Breezy and cooler conditions fill in overnight with lows for
Saturday morning ranging from the mid 30s/40s to possibly lower 50s
at the coast.

Saturday has seen some interesting pattern changes emerge, making
the forecast more complex. We`re still anticipating mostly post-
frontal weather as high pressure treks eastward through the Plains.
Highs are still anticipated to reach the 50s/lower 60s with
afternoon RH dropping to 20-30 percent. Winds remain fairly elevated
inland during the daytime, around 10-15 mph, raising some fire
weather concerns that will need to be monitored closely. Fuels are
also fairly dry, below 25th percentile in many spots for both the
10hr and 100hr fuels.

Overnight temperatures have trended downward with lows for Sunday
morning in the mid 20s/lower 40s. Much more robust temperature drop
than prior days, nearly at hard-freeze conditions for our
northernmost counties. In addition, the mid/upper level trough
appears much more elongated with significantly stronger forcing over
SE Texas. Model guidance suggests the potential for some 850mb-700mb
frontogenesis leading ahead of this trough. As already mentioned,
conditions during the daytime will be well-above freezing with very
dry surface conditions, nearly a 20-40 degree dewpoint depression.
While wet bulb profiles do stay under the freezing mark, guidance
indicates that much of the area will have a substantial warm-nose
of 2.5-3C around 800mb, nearly 3000-4000ft in depth. As we head into
the overnight hours, this warm nose should erode with the dewpoint
depression set to decrease. DGZ is still dry and far from optimal,
though some models are suggesting at least some moisture lingering
aloft in the wake of the FROPA, enough to perhaps produce some weak
precipitation. There is indeed a non-zero chance of some frozen (but
non-accumulating) precipitation to develop in some capacity on
Saturday, especially during this evening-overnight period, perhaps
as flurries... though I`m not confident enough to lock that into the
forecast just yet. We`ll have a better idea of how this scenario may
unfold once CAMs get in range of this time frame.

Sunday will see surface high pressure move off to the east into the
Lower Mississippi River Valley, allowing onshore flow to return
early in the evening. This will usher in WAA and bring gradually
warming temperatures and increasing moisture into next week. Highs
for Sunday should reach the mid 50s/lower 60s during the daytime.
Overnight temperatures will be slightly warmer, but still cool with
lows for Monday morning anticipated to bottom out in the 30s/upper
40s.

The brief warm-up will come to a quick end on Monday, as long range
models continue to suggest that a mid/upper level low will dig
across the Great Lakes/Ontario/Quebec on Monday. This should send
yet another cold front into SE Texas. Timing is still a bit
uncertain with model differences still fairly pronounced at day 5.
Current timing has it reaching SE Texas Monday afternoon/late
evening. Models are suggesting that this front will stall out
somewhere over the area (either across the northern zones of our CWA
or somewhere along the coast/Gulf) on Tuesday. Onshore flow is
currently anticipated to strengthen overnight into Wednesday
morning, funneling deeper moisture and PWs of 0.9-1.6" into the
area. GFS shows a midlevel shortwave passing over SE Texas on
Wednesday with other long-range guidance broadly leaning towards
wetter conditions throughout the day.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 510 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Winds become light overnight. We expect a general S to SSW flow,
though many areas could become variable. Tomorrow, expect winds
to increase from the SW ahead of an approaching frontal boundary.
We think winds will generally be 10-15 knots with occasionally
higher gusts. Late in the day into the evening, a cold front will
shift winds to a more northerly direction.

VFR vis/cigs expected through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1249 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Matagorda Pilots have reported waters levels to nearly -3.0ft MLLW
at Port Lavaca with exceptionally low water levels across Matagorda
bay. Current Low Water Advisory may be extended this evening...
possibly into Friday morning if conditions do not improve. Mariners
should continue to remain mindful of these negative tide levels
through the week, especially around low tide cycles in the central
and northern half of the the bays. Winds and seas should decrease
and shift southeasterly as high pressure passes over the area this
afternoon. Another cold front is slated to push off the coast Friday
night. Moderate to strong northeasterly winds will likely prompt
Small Craft Advisories through Saturday into early Sunday. There is
a chance of some light precipitation on Saturday. Onshore winds
return Sunday night.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  44  69  39  52 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  45  73  45  54 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  52  69  51  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 PM CST this evening
     for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion