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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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314
FXUS64 KHGX 091140
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
640 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered seabreeze showers and thunderstorms expected on a
  daily basis through early next week.

- Showers/storms could become more numerous on Monday, especially
  in our southern and coastal counties.

- Pattern turns drier and hotter by mid/late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Persistence forecast continues with not much in the way of
meaningful changes, as hot weather and daily showers/storms are
still anticipated through early next week. Same pattern remains in
place with ridging situated over the Four Corners and off the East
Coast. A weakness between both (lower heights & subsidence) has
allow for scattered showers and storms these last several days, and
will continue to do so today and in Monday as well (and possibly a
bit more widespread). Most of this activity should occur during the
daytime along the sea breeze. Much of this activity will likely
occur over the southern 2/3rds of our CWA where CAM guidance has
suggested deep tropical moisture to be present (2-2.5 inches). Storms
have overall been very pulsy in nature, slow moving and vertically
stacked with suboptimal organization. Still, these storms could
produce gusty winds, frequently lightening and strong downpours at
times. Areas that don`t receive rainfall will still see fairly hot
weather with highs in the 90s and heat indicies in the triple
digits. Patchy fog may develop in spots during the early morning
hours as well.

Rain chances tapper off into Tuesday as ridging builds across the
northwestern Gulf. 850mb temperatures slide upwards again as
temperatures rise again through the end of the upcoming work week.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

FEW to SCT ceilings around 015-025 will move over the terminals
through 14-15Z. The next aviation concern is the chance of -SHRA/-TSRA
slowly developing from the coast inland, mainly from mid-morning
through early this evening. Will continue with PROB30 due to low
confidence in timing and occurrence. Erratic winds and low
ceilings/visibility are possible with any strong storms. Winds
will generally remain from the SSE, with speeds from 9 to 12 kts
later this afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight. VFR
conditions are expected for most of this TAF cycle.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Onshore winds 10-15 knots and seas of 2-4 feet are expected
throughout the next several days. Rain chances increase slightly
through early next week. Chances for scattered showers and storms
will be greatest during the early morning through early afternoon
hours for the Gulf. Shower and storm coverage may become more
widespread through Monday. Rain chances taper off Tuesday.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  96  75  95  76 /  10   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)  94  78  93  78 /  30  10  50   0
Galveston (GLS)  90  82  89  83 /  20  40  60  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion