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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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118
FXUS64 KHGX 071016
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
516 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected throughout
  the week, mainly focused over areas near and south of I-10.

- High temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 90s inland
  and the upper 80s to lower 90s along the coast through the end
  of the work week. Isolated spots west of I-45 could see highs in
  the upper 90s at times.

- Rain chances increase towards mid-week as tropical moisture
  returns to the area.

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

We will start to see the wet pattern transition to a slightly
drier one as we kick off the work-week and mid-level ridging
shifts southward. PWAT values for today will be around 1.8-2.1"
(around the 75-90th percentile), so expecting to see convection
take advantage of the lingering moisture this afternoon with help
from the sea breeze. Showers and storms should have less coverage
than the last few days, with most of the activity occurring along
the coastal counties. Expect activity to decrease with the loss of
daytime heating.

The aforementioned high pressure will continue to transition
southward into Oklahoma Tuesday, building further into Southeast
Texas. Consequently, moisture will decrease again slightly as
subsident air becomes more prevalent. PWAT values will range from
1.7-2.0 (average to around 90th percentile). This subsident air
will keep chances of showers and thunderstorms on the lower side.
A few shallow showers and storms could form along the sea breeze
during the afternoon.

Models continue to show moisture increasing again going into
Wednesday as more tropical moisture filters into the area. PWAT
values will climb back to around 2.2" (just above 90th
percentile). Model soundings show a pretty saturated profile with
light winds for Wednesday, so could see some of these showers and
storms produce heavy rainfall. We will see this pattern of daily
showers and storms continue through the end of the week as a mid-
upper level disturbance moves across the NW Gulf and approaches SE
Texas.

Bailey

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 516 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

A couple of showers have already begun to develop right along the
coast early this morning. Coverage of showers/storms today will
be less than what has been experienced over the past several days.
The general trend will be for spotty showers along the coast this
morning followed by isolated showers/storms developing near the
coast along the seabreeze and pushing inland towards the I-10
corridor. Convective impact potential has been covered by PROB30s
generally between the 17Z-00Z timeframe and has only been included
for HOU/SGR and sites southward. Can`t entirely rule out a stray
shower/storm moving past I-10, but the potential is quite low.
Outside of any convection, winds will be light and southeasterly
then becoming light and variable after sunset. As we have seen
over the past couple of nights, intermittent periods of patchy fog
are possible during the overnight to early morning hours
especially at CXO.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Light winds and seas of 2 feet or less are expected over the next
several days. A drier airmass is expected over the next couple of
days, which will result in less coverage for showers and
thunderstorms. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase
towards the middle of the week and continue into the latter part
of the week as tropical moisture returns and a mid-upper level
disturbance moves through.

Bailey

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  93  76  95  76 /  20  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  94  79  95  79 /  20  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  91  83  91  82 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Bailey

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion