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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

654
FXUS64 KHGX 301139
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
639 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will be running 2-5F above normal today and Monday,
  then a bit closer to seasonable norms after that.

- NHC is monitoring an area of weak low pressure and disorganized
  precipitation over the north central Gulf. Though chances are
  not currently overly high for significant development, it`s that
  time of year to keep an eye on things at regular intervals.

- Rain chances should increase Tue-Wed, followed by daily chances
  for isolated to scattered precipitation for the rest of the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

GOES Total PW product shows 1.4-1.6" precipitable water values
across the region (not too high for this time of year). With flat
ridging across the Southern Plains expanding into the Tennessee
Valley, lower end moisture availability and subsistence should
keep rain chances more isolated in nature and mainly associated
with the afternoon seabreeze/baybreeze through Monday.

There is an area of troffiness situated between the ridges across
the ncntl/ne Gulf Coast. NHC is monitoring a weak surface low
pressure area off the coasts of AL/MS/LA. Both the mid/upper trof
and potential sfc low should track wwd under the ridging
described above and toward the western Gulf Tue-Wed. Though the
general environmental conditions (and the lows fcst proximity to
the coast) aren`t especially favorable for substantial tropical
development, they`re not horrible either. Residents should monitor
the latest forecasts for any changes...but right now we expect an
uptick in moisture levels and much needed rain chances Tue-Wed as
they move closer to the area.

Mid-upper ridging pulls a bit further NNE later in the week. Lower
heights and a prevalent onshore flow should allow for mostly
seasonable wx and daily chances of diurnally driven precip. It
appears that we might see another easterly wave track across the
Gulf late in the week or next weekend...though timing/details are
not yet quite on the same page in the longer range guidance.  47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Other than isolated patches of fog, expect mostly VFR conditions
today. A prevailing light southeast wind is expected by afternoon,
before becoming light and variable again overnight. An isolated
afternoon shower or storm cannot be ruled out.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Light winds and low seas will prevail for much of the week. There is
an area of weak low pressure and disorganized precipitation across
the northern Gulf coast that the National Hurricane Center is
monitoring. Though chances of significant development are somewhat
low, mariners should monitor the latest forecasts. Shower and
thunderstorm development will probably increase across parts of the
upper Texas coast Tuesday and Wednesday as some of this deeper
moisture makes its way into the area. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 100  75  98  76 /   0  10  10   0
Houston (IAH)  99  78  97  78 /  20  10  20  30
Galveston (GLS)  92  83  92  82 /  20  10  20  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion