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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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713
FXUS64 KHGX 100557
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1257 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Deeper tropical moisture will be moving back into the region
  today and should provide 30-60% chances of showers and
  thunderstorms each day through this weekend. Overall coverage
  should be highest across the southern half of the region.

- Let`s keep an eye out for even better chances of precipitation
  Monday-Tuesday across all of the area. Localized heavy rain
  cannot be ruled out.

- Things begin to dry out (and temperatures warm) during the
  second half of the work week as higher pressure filters in from
  the east.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

On the back side of the inverted troffiness situated across south
Texas and Mexico, and with a continued southerly llvl flow, deeper
Gulf moisture is set to begin moving back into the upper Texas
coastal waters early this morning and inland during the day. PW`s
should climb into the 1.9-2.2" range by the end of the day. This
should bring an uptick in overall scattered shower & tstm coverage
to the region today...and a bit moreso this weekend as the
tropical airmass remains in place. Precip should mainly be diurnally
driven (increasing development offshore and near the coast late
at night and morning then transitioning inland during the day and
early evening). Not everyone will see rain, and those that do
it`s not currently looking like a whole-day affair. But those
with outdoor plans should plan for some intermittent alternatives.
Temps should be a touch below what we`ve seen the last several
days considering more cloudiness & scattered rain.

Ridge currently centered off the SoCal coast will strengthen and
track across the Rockies and into the nctl US later this weekend
into early next week. Weak troffiness currently seen on water vapor
imagery tracking eastward across the northern Plains will eventually
circle back around and under the ridge axis and toward Texas Monday
and Tuesday. This should further enhance precip coverage those days.
We`ll probably need to keep an eye out for the highest qpf during
that time period as there are some hints of some weak diffluence
aloft and some potentially slower storm motions.

High pressure should expand ssewd across the nctl Gulf states &
southeastern states during the second half of next week and give
the troffiness & deeper moisture over SE Tx a nudge westward.
Wednesday should be somewhat of a transition day with lower, but
still scattered, precip chances. Thursday and Friday we should be
back to our beloved SE TX wx with warmer temps and just some
isolated daily rain chances.

LDavis/47

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Elevated and gusty winds due to lingering showers and
thunderstorms should decrease by this evening. Winds remain light
overnight, and pick back up tomorrow morning. Generally, winds
are out of the S/SSE through the TAF period. A first round of
showers/thunderstorms is expected to arrive near the coast
tomorrow morning and gradually push inland, mainly effecting sites
south of I-10. A second, and stronger, round of
showers/thunderstorms is expected to arrive tomorrow afternoon and
persist through the evening. This second round of storms looks to
be more widespread, effecting most TAF sites; although, it is
uncertain whether storms will push as far north as KCLL and KUTS.
Gusty and erratic winds, along with reductions in VIS/CIG could
accompany any afternoon storms that pop up. Convective activity
should subside by late tomorrow evening.

MLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

A continued 10-15kt onshore flow will persist with 2-4ft seas today
into next week. The primary marine concern will be for late night
through early afternoon storms this weekend. More numerous
activity is anticipated Sunday night through and Tuesday.
Widespread severe weather is not anticipated, though gusts to
~35kt and locally higher seas are possible in and near any
isolated more intense cells.

LDavis/47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  94  77  93  76 /  30  20  30  10
Houston (IAH)  93  78  92  77 /  40  20  40  10
Galveston (GLS)  90  84  90  83 /  40  30  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LDavis/47
AVIATION...MLG
MARINE...LDavis/47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion