Skip to main content.

National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

Related quick links> 5 Day Forecast, Local Advisories, Drought Monitor, UV Forecast, Air Quality Forecast 
653
FXUS64 KHGX 052145
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
345 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weak, dry front pushes through the area early Friday.

- Rain chances increase Saturday night and Sunday as the next
  weather system moves closer to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1132 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

A fairly tranquil weather day will be encountered when southeast Texans
step outside on this 5th of November. Expect plenty of sunshine,
though some clouds are trying to push in from the southwest.
Temperatures should skew a tad warmer than normal, likely peaking
just above 80 at most spots this afternoon. Overnight temperatures
should drop into the 50s and 60s, with patchy fog in a few areas.
Could be a few thunderstorms over the Gulf this evening due to an
approaching shortwave. The only land areas we need to watch is
near Matagorda Bay. For now, most of the activity is expected
offshore.

A cold front situated over W Texas will push eastward, crossing
our CWA early Friday. Current temperatures in the Texas Panhandle
are only in the 40s with gusty winds. We don`t expect
temperatures that cold to reach SE Texas. But we expect a downward
trend in temperatures that begins on Friday as a ~1025 MB sfc
high builds southward over the plains in the front`s wake. The
northern half of the CWA is expected to be in the mid/upper 70s on
Friday, while areas farther south likely manage one more day up
around 80 degrees.

The aforementioned high continues its southward drift while the
upper level pattern changes over the weekend. A trough is evident
over W CONUS. The southern edge of the trough axis features a
strong vort max. This vort max is expected to break off, evolving
into a more cut-off low structure as it pushes across SW CONUS.
By Saturday, we expected this low to be centered over northern
Mexico, enhancing an increasingly diffluent and vort max abundant
mid/upper jet over Texas. For SE Texas, the pattern aloft may only
result in increased clouds on Saturday. But by Sunday, we suspect
rainfall chances will increase. Increasing clouds and modest CAA
from the southward drifting sfc high should lower afternoon
temperatures. Saturday is expected to average in the mid 70s. By
Sunday, most locations are forecast to remain in the 60s. Highest
rain chances on Sunday are generally west of I-45. However, most
of the guidance is showing at least a little shower activity
drifting into our eastern zones on Sunday.

The cut-off low is expected to push northeastward on Monday-
Tuesday, possibly phasing with the polar jet by mid-week, helping
to amplify the jet southward over E CONUS during the second half
of the week. This may trend the pattern colder across E CONUS. Meanwhile,
global deterministic / ensemble / AI guidance suggest another
cut-off low or trough could be pushing across SW CONUS during the
same time frame. What does this mean for SE TX? The influence of
the potential cut-off low / trough may not be felt until the very
end of the week. So PoPs for most of next week are low. After
another day in the 60s on Monday, we are expected mostly 70s next
week with lows in the 40s and 50s. Perhaps the only temperature
wild card will be any possible backdoor fronts that could bring
some of the colder E CONUS temperatures westward. AI models
actually suggest this, but not until after the forecast period.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(21Z TAF Amendment)
Issued at 344 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

VFR conditions for this afternoon with mostly clear skies. Expect
cloudiness currently across South TX/middle TX coast region to
spread across the area tonight with BKN050-060 ceilings
developing. A weak cold front will cross the terminals 09-14Z
Friday. Light winds will become north 5-10 kts behind the front.
Patchy MVFR fog is expected to affect KCXO/KSGR/KLBX 07-12Z prior
to the FROPA.


35/MM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1032 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible offshore
this evening into tonight. Locally strong winds are possible with
any thunderstorm. Otherwise, the primary concern will be
increasing NE winds Friday into the weekend along with gradually
building seas. Small Craft Advisory level conditions are possible
over the Gulf as early as Saturday morning. Winds and seas are
expected to peak on Sunday, with seas up to 8-9 feet possible
offshore, and closer to 4-6 feet nearshore. Winds remain NE while
decreasing on Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  60  77  58  75 /  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  61  81  61  76 /  10   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  69  78  66  75 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...35
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion