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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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FXUS64 KHGX 220615
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1215 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog overnight into Thursday morning.

- An Arctic front pushes through Friday night/Saturday, bringing
  various winter hazards over the weekend:
    - Extended periods of below freezing temperatures along with
      hard freezes for parts of the area Saturday night, Sunday
      night, and Monday night. (Extreme Cold Watch in effect
      Saturday evening thru Monday)
    - Low wind chill values, potentially near 0 in northwestern
      areas.
    - Freezing Rain/Sleet with hazardous to significant ice
      accumulations leading to hazardous road conditions (Winter
      Storm Watch in effect for most of SE Texas Saturday thru
      Sunday afternoon).
    - Hazardous marine conditions.

- Residents are encouraged to winterize their home and make plans
  to keep themselves and loved ones warm during the work week
  prior to the arrival of the Arctic air.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

If you read last night`s discussion, then you`ll be familiar with
how this discussion is going to be organized. First, we`ll discuss
the why and the how of the forecast with plenty of sciency jargon to
explain what we know and what still remains uncertain. Following
that, we`ll discuss how the forecast will impact you along with some
tips for preparation. As of the moment that I`m typing this, it`s
still very early Thursday morning. That means that there`s still two
full days to develop and enact your plans to stay safe and warm.
Let`s begin, shall we?

Sciency Jargon (Why and How?)
-----------------------------

Before we get to the Arctic air/winter weather part...we have to
talk about the coastal trough. A coastal trough off to our southwest
brought us plenty of rainfall throughout the day on Wednesday. An
associated quasi-stationary frontal boundary remains overhead
(generally south of I-10) going into Thursday, so the potential for
isolated to scattered showers will persist for coastal areas. PW
values on Thursday will be closer to the 75th percentile (~1.09")
along the immediate coast and that`ll be gradually decreasing. So,
rain shower coverage won`t be as widespread as what we saw on
Wednesday. With most of the area receiving rainfall throughout the
day on Wednesday and winds becoming light overnight paired with
already low dew point depressions, we are anticipating the
development of widespread patchy to areas of fog. This fog may be
dense at times especially along the I-10 corridor and southward. As
a result, a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through Thursday mid-
morning. There`s potential for another round of fog Thursday night
into Friday morning as well.

Before the big cooldown, we`ll continue in a period of above normal
temperatures as zonal flow aloft establishes. High temperatures on
Thursday and Friday will peak mainly in the low to mid 70s with some
upper 70s possible in our southwestern zones. Low temperatures
tonight and Thursday night will be mainly in the upper 50s to low
60s (low to mid 50s in the Piney Woods). Fun fact, our normal high
temperature is in the low to mid 60s...so our low temperature is
what our high temperature should be. That will change soon enough
though as an Arctic cold front arrives to the scene on Friday. Exact
frontal timing is still a bit uncertain, but we are beginning to
enter the range of high-res model guidance. Model guidance generally
pushes the front through Friday afternoon through early Saturday
morning. As you can imagine, the timing of the front will play a big
role in Friday`s daytime temperatures. After the cold front pushes
through, temperatures will fall going into the overnight hours/early
Saturday morning.

This is when our attention turns to an upper level low approaching
from the west. Embedded shortwaves in the flow aloft will push into
the area beginning Friday night along with a developing 25-35 kt LLJ
over the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods as the pressure gradient
tightens. So, initially the best sources of lift will be up north
then gradually spread southward throughout the day on Saturday. One
thing of note though is that some model guidance shows mid level dry
air infiltrating between 500-700mb, which just so happens to impact
moisture availability in the dendritic growth zone. Even though
model guidance is reflecting a dry period, there looks to be enough
moisture above the surface to at least get some drizzle/light rain
if these dry slot scenario unfolds. As the LLJ pushes southward
along with the upper level low sliding in (some questions remain on
exactly how progressive this low will be) and favorable upper level
divergence, precipitation will be widespread Saturday afternoon into
Sunday afternoon.

The question that ALL of us are still trying to figure out is how
far south does the freezing line move while precipitation is
occuring. If you were hoping for the best kind of winter
precipitation (snow), sorry but those chances are slim to none. You
could argue that as the temperature column continues to cool on
early Sunday (would need some wet bulbing assistance as well) that a
few flurries could mix in over the Piney Woods at the tail-end of
the precip window, but don`t get your hopes up elsewhere. The
highest confidence that we have for a changeover from cold rain (sad
melted snowflakes) to freezing rain/sleet is generally north of the
I-10 corridor, especially portions of the Brazos Valley and the
Piney Woods. Exact ice accumulations are still uncertain, but there
is definitely potential for accumulating ice in our northern zones.
The risk for ice extends to the coast, but uncertainty remains
fairly high. For areas south of I-10, the main concern is the
potential for ice on elevated surfaces/roadways. Even if there is
not a changeover to freezing rain, freezing temperatures Saturday
night into Sunday would freeze lingering wet surfaces which could
create hazardous travel conditions. As a result, a Winter Storm
Watch is in effect for most of SE Texas Saturday through Sunday
afternoon. Once we get more confidence in a particular solution,
then we`ll decide on any potential additions, subtractions, or
transition to a Ice Storm Warning vs Winter Storm Warning.

The high temperatures on Sunday will play a role in how long the
hazardous road conditions persist. In the Brazos Valley/the Piney
Woods, high temperatures will remain below freezing leading to
persistent hazardous conditions. Around the I-10 corridor, things
are a bit questionable as these areas may or may not briefly rise
above freezing. Further south, we`ll see high temperatures a few
degrees above freezing along with breezy northerly winds. This
forecast is subject to change though if enough ice accumulates up
north leading to much colder air being advected southward. As we
discussed yesterday, model guidance tends to underdo the temperature
forecast in this kind of an environment so don`t be surprised to see
Sunday`s high temperatures trend downward. And again, any lingering
wet surfaces will once again refreeze Sunday night into Monday
morning. This is a good segue to talk about the extremely cold
temperatures, which we have fairly good confidence in.

Extremely cold temperatures are also a hazard, and I saved it for
last so that it`s fresh on your mind following the winter precip
potential talk. We are anticipating multiple nights of well below
freezing temperatures beginning Friday night for the Piney Woods,
and everywhere Saturday night through Monday night. Those three
nights are going to be VERY cold, especially Sunday night and Monday
night. Low temperatures will range from the low teens to the mid
20s, and that`s just the air temperature. When you factor in the
northerly breeze, it`ll feel like the single digits (potentially
near 0 in the Brazos Valley) to the mid teens. I mentioned above
that Sunday`s high temperatures may not rise above freezing for some
locations...this means that northern locations will likely remain
below freezing from Saturday morning/afternoon through at least
Monday afternoon. Portions of the Piney Woods may not rise above
freezing on Monday either which means they may see over 70
consecutive hours of below freezing temperatures. It`s also worth a
brief mention here (maybe I mentioned it above but no way I`ll be
able to find it amongst the paragraphs), but the latest model
guidance trended slightly warmer. This is common in these type of
events, and typically the model guidance adjusts back to where it
was so we didn`t make any drastic changes to the temperature
forecast at the moment.

As a result of all of the above, an Extreme Cold Watch is in effect
for all of SE Texas Saturday evening into Monday. Winds will be
light on Monday night with mostly clear skies, so low wind chills
not much of a factor that night but the air temperature will still
fall into low teens to mid 20s. Cold temperatures prevail throughout
the week with most locations continuing to see freezing temperatures
overnight (20s/30s) and highs in the 40s/50s. Additionally, we are
looking at another frontal passage around midweek as well, but for
now our eyes remain firmly pointed at Friday`s front. By now, you
should have a firm grasp on why the forecast is what it is and why
there is uncertainty. Now let`s talk about how this will impact you.

How Does This Impact You?
-------------------------

Brazos Valley/Piney Woods:

As we did above, we`ll start with the ice potential and save the
extremely cold temperature discussion for the tail-end as we really
want y`all to pay attention to that aspect of the forecast too. The
best potential for accumulating ice will be generally north of I-10,
especially for portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods.
This changeover to freezing rain could occur as early as Saturday
morning, but is most likely Saturday afternoon. Something to note is
that the initial rain before this transition to freezing rain could
limit the effectiveness of the pre-treated roads. This means that
hazardous travel conditions will be a concern especially for
northern areas. That`s not even accounting for the changeover to
sleet early Sunday morning. Temperatures in the Brazos Valley and
the Piney Woods are also not expected to rise above freezing on
Sunday afternoon, so road conditions could be hazardous Saturday
afternoon through at least Monday morning. We`ll have to monitor
forecast trends to see if Monday`s high temperatures decrease as
well as that could extend these conditions. Northerly winds over icy
grounds is a recipe for colder temperatures, so it wouldn`t be too
surprising to see a downward temperature trend. This ice may
accumulate on trees and power lines as well, which may result in
weather-related power outages. Be sure to have a plan in place on
how to keep you and your loved ones warm if a power outage occurs.

Multiple nights of extremely cold temperatures are expected Saturday
night through Monday night. Low temperatures on these nights will
fall into the teens and 20s. When you factor in the northerly winds,
it`ll feel like near 0 for most of the area with wind chill values
between 2-7 degrees on Saturday night and Sunday night. Winds will
be light on Monday night, so it won`t feel quite as cold but still
very cold with low temperatures ranging from 12-20 degrees. It`s
very important that you have a plan in place and are enacting it to
winterize your home. Pipes may freeze and burst if not properly
insulated and protected. Remember that portions of this area may
remain below freezing from Saturday afternoon through Tuesday. If
you plan on being outdoors in the evening to early morning hours, be
sure to dress in layers and protect yourself from the elements. If
you would feel uncomfortable sleeping outside in this kind of
weather, don`t make your pets do it either. Don`t forget about your
plants too.

Houston Metro Area and Southward:

This portion of the area is tricky when it comes to the freezing
rain aspect of the forecast. The freezing rain potential is
definitely there for at least areas down and just past the I-10
corridor...even down to the coast. Since lots of uncertainty remains
on how far south the freezing line gets, we`ll keep this kind of
general. Our main concern in this area is for elevated surfaces that
freeze overnight into Sunday morning. This may create hazardous
travel conditions over bridges, overpasses, and other elevated
roadways, so it`ll be important to check road conditions before
traveling during the Saturday night to Monday morning timeframe. For
Sunday afternoon, the Houston metro area may briefly rise above
freezing for an hour...or the models could trend colder with
accumulating ice up north and leave this area below freezing
throughout the day as well. Long story short, keep up to date with
the forecast for the latest information and check road conditions
before hitting the roadways. The period of cold rain would be longer
in this area before a potential transition to freezing rain, so
again...the effectiveness of the pre-treated roads may be inhibited
(mainly a concern for elevated roadways). While we`re on the topic
of freezing rain, we`ll actually need some assistance from y`all to
keep track of this potential changeover Saturday night to Sunday
morning. We`ll discuss a bit more on that in the early Friday
morning discussion, but you should go ahead and familiarize yourself
with the mPING app.

While we aren`t anticipating low temperatures in the single digits
in this area, it is still very important to remember that even low
temperatures in the upper teens to mid 20s can be hazardous. This is
especially true if you don`t take the proper steps to winterize your
home and insulate your pipes. Copying this sentence from the above
section: Pipes may freeze and burst if not properly insulated and
protected. Wind chill values on Saturday night and Sunday night will
range from the upper single digits to the upper teens, so it`ll
still feel extremely cold outside. So again, if you plan on being
outside in the evening to morning hours over the weekend into
Monday, be sure to layer up and protect yourself from the cold.
Don`t forget about your pets and your plants as well.

Preparation Tips
----------------

There is still have plenty of time (two full days!) to prepare for
the upcoming hazardous weather conditions. If you have a plan in
place, you`re a step ahead of the game! If you don`t, now is a good
time to make one. Be sure to know the hazards of heating your home
especially in the event of a weather-related power outage. Ensure
that generators are only used outdoors and away from windows, and
make sure that you have a carbon monoxide detector (with fresh
batteries) as well. Never use a gas stove to warm your home and
never plug a space heater into anything other than directly into
an outlet. Dress in layers (including a hat and gloves) if you
plan on being outdoors during the coldest parts of the day. Make
sure that your family and friends are aware of the forecast and
that they have plans to stay warm as well.

Road conditions may be hazardous for multiple days in the Brazos
Valley and the Piney Woods. Check road conditions, ensure that your
gas tank is full, and that you have an emergency supply kit in
your vehicle should you choose to travel.

For additional winter safety information, visit `ready.gov` and
you`ll see a section titled "Winter Ready" right at the top of the
page where you can find all of the information above and more.
Taking a few steps now to prepare makes a big difference.
Follow the motto: be prepared and stay informed.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 525 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Daytime rain is mostly exiting the area to the east, though
anticipate we`ll still have some spotty -shra around the metro and
coastal areas through 6-8z. Ceilings will be a challenge with
diffuse surface troffiness in the region. VFR conditions outside
of any precip early this evening should generally trend downward
into MVFR and IFR territory (and maybe some LIFR from CXO
southward) as the night progresses and some fog and low cigs
develops. Poor flying conditions anticipated thru the morning
hours Thurs with just slow improvement on cigs/vis. The hope is
that by mid to late afternoon we`ll see some prevailing MVFR
conditions take over, and possibly VFR for metro/coastal areas if
the trof lifts back north enough. However, confidence is low and
it`ll be fairly short lived as they`ll begins falling once again
Thurs evening. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1215 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Light southerly to southeasterly winds will continue through the
night along with scattered showers as a coastal trough remains in
place through Thursday. The main marine impact of note overnight
into Thursday morning will be sea fog. Water temperatures in the
bays and along the immediate coast range from the upper 50s to mid
60s and dew points have already reached the low to mid 60s. Light
winds and humid conditions have already resulted in the development
of dense fog in the bays, so a Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in
effect through Thursday morning. There is potential for another
round of sea fog Thursday night into Friday morning.

A strong Arctic cold front pushes offshore late Friday night with
strong northeasterly to northerly winds prevailing in its wake
through the weekend. Small Craft Advisories will be needed for this
period with sustained winds in the 25-30 kt range and elevated seas
in the 8-11 ft range. Gale force gusts cannot be ruled out.
Widespread precipitation is expected late Friday into Sunday behind
the front. While the precipitation type along the immediate coast is
anticipated to be liquid, there are some areas along the northern
and central portions of the bays that have the potential for
freezing rain Saturday night into Sunday morning. Additionally,
we`ll monitor for the potential for another round of abnormally low
water levels in the bays during low tide cycles, so be sure to stay
up to date with the latest forecasts.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  68  56  63  35 /   0  10  40  80
Houston (IAH)  72  60  67  46 /  10  10  40  60
Galveston (GLS)  67  60  65  52 /  10   0  40  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday
     afternoon for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-
     300-313.

     Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning
     for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-
     313-335>338-436>439.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ199-200-
     210>214-226-227-236>238-300-313-336>338-438-439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ335.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion