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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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617
FXUS64 KHGX 311057
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
557 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances expected through this afternoon as moisture levels
  increase and a few upper level disturbances pass through.

- Dry and warmer conditions expected Sunday into Monday.

- The next chances for rain/storm will arrive early next week
  along and ahead of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Latest IR and water vapor satellite imagery shows the mid-level
trough just over the region, which is gradually moving northeast.
Deep low to mid-level moisture still persists, and as a result we
continue to see intermittent light to moderate showers overnight.
Deep moisture axis will continue to shift east-northeast today
(Saturday) as the main upper trough lifts into the Lower MS Valley.
The combination of deep moisture, subtle forcing still persisting
aloft and daytime heating will lead to rain and storm chances
through the day. Latest Hi-res guidance shows a less active forecast
for today, showing only isolated to scattered showers and storms,
not as widespread. The main focus will be for areas along and east
of I-45 and adjacent Gulf waters. Most of this activity should taper
off by late this afternoon/early evening, though some spotty rain
will be possible north of I-10 through the night.

Once the trough shifts east and forcing/dynamics aloft move out of
the region, weak ridging aloft should support quieter conditions
through at least Monday. Expect drier and warmer conditions on
Sunday and Monday with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s.

A longwave trough over the western CONUS will deepen as it tracks
eastward across the Plains by Monday. As this trough deepens and
amplifies over the central CONUS, it will drag a cold front
southeastward across SE Texas by Tuesday. Latest guidance is coming
with better agreement regarding the phasing and timing of this
FROPA, bringing the front across our westernmost areas by Tuesday
morning, and reaching the coast by Tuesday evening/night. A few
showers and storms are possible ahead of the front (late Monday
through Tuesday), with increasing chances along the boundary. At the
moment, instability is limited, so severe weather potential is low
but nonzero and impacts from localized heavy rainfall will strongly
depend on the final progression of this system. For now, prepare for
scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. In the
wake of the front, drier and cooler weather is expected with near-
seasonal temperatures.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 557 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Isolated to scattered showers continue over the northern terminals
(CXO and northward) early this morning. For the region in general,
there is a mixed bag of LIFR to MVFR ceilings and visibility. The
general trend is LIFR/IFR ceilings remaining possible through
~16Z, then MVFR ceilings remaining possible through ~19-20Z. An
additional round of scattered showers is expected to develop late
this morning and into the afternoon mainly along and east of I-45.
PROB30 groups reflect the most likely timing. An isolated storm
or two cannot be completely ruled out. Winds will remain light
and generally easterly throughout the day with wind speeds near
4-8 kt.

Model guidance depicts the potential for widespread LIFR/IFR
ceilings overnight into Sunday morning. Patchy fog may also lead
to reduced visibilities especially between 08-15Z.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are expected tonight
through at least early this afternoon. Elevated winds with gusts of
20 to 30+ kts and seas around 4ft can be expected near any strong
thunderstorms. Showers and storms should diminish later today,
resulting in light to occasionally moderate east to northeast winds
and 2  to 4 ft seas. Winds will transition to the east-southeast by
Sunday, before moderate late Monday into Tuesday ahead of an
approaching cold front. This front is progged to reach the coastal
waters by Tuesday night/early Wednesday with moderate to strong
offshore winds in its wake.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  80  65  84  66 /  20  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  80  68  83  69 /  40  10  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  79  71  79  72 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion