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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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596
FXUS64 KHGX 022307
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
507 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much warmer today and tomorrow.

- Chance of showers along and ahead of a front that will push
  through Tuesday afternoon and evening.

- After a brief cool down to seasonal temperatures Wednesday-
  Thursday, expect a trend to above normal temperatures by week`s
  end.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Increased ridging aloft and onshore flow at the surface is
bringing in a warmer and more humid air mass today. We also have
some moisture aloft streaming into the region from the southwest.
You can thank that moisture for the clouds you see above. For
those near the coast (especially near Matagorda), do not be
surprised if you experience a brief rain shower this afternoon.
Temperatures are much warmer today than recent. In fact, I`m
wondering if I should boost my temperature grids upwards a few
degrees given that current observations are already precariously
close to my forecast highs (mid 60s to low 70s). The increasingly
moist profile will prevent temperatures from tanking like they
have recently, with overnight lows in the 50s. For Tuesday,
afternoon highs are expected to range from the upper 60s in our
northern, eastern, and coastal zones. Most elsewhere should rise
into the 70s.

The current ridging aloft will be short-lived. The polar jet
stream will weaken and become somewhat split. A lobe of the jet
will push southward over the central and southern plains Tuesday
and Wednesday. At the surface, this will manifest as a cold front
that will push through the region late Tuesday afternoon into the
evening. Scattered shower activity is expected along and ahead of
the front. The system will lack the arctic connection that we`ve
seen in recent weeks. So we`re not expecting a widespread freeze.
Afternoon temperatures are expected to be in the upper 50s to mid
60s on Wednesday and Thursday, with overnight lows in the 30s and
40s. Perhaps our northern counties could manage a light freeze.

Long range and deterministic guidance suggest a return to ridging
over Texas by the weekend, suggesting warmer temperatures. The
same data also suggests the presence of a robust mid/upper trough
or low in SW CONUS, that could bring rain chances by Sunday or
Monday of next week. For now, our grids do not feature
Sunday/Monday PoPs. But I could see that changing if this feature
remains in the guidance.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 503 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

MVFR cigs are expected to develop overnight from about the Houston
area and I-10 corridor points north, especially after 06Z. A few
stray showers possible at the coast this evening. But the best
chance of SHRA is expected to occur tomorrow. Isolated to widely
scattered SHRA is possible in the morning and early afternoon. The
better chance of SHRA is associated with a cold front that will
push southward across the region during the afternoon and evening
hours tomorrow. We have pushed back the highest chance for SHRA
relative to the previous update. But we suspect there will be some
SHRA activity as early as the morning hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 100 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Onshore flow will gradually increase this afternoon through
tonight. Winds are expected to increase enough (15-20 knots over
the Gulf) to enhance seas and make nearshore and bay waters more
choppy. We have issued Caution Flags over the Gulf waters for this
evening through tomorrow morning. It is possible that areas
offshore reach Small Craft Advisory criteria (Sustained winds 20+
knots and 6+ foot seas). The best chance of this occurring is 20NM
or more offshore.

Winds should decrease by Tuesday afternoon ahead
of an approaching front. The front is expected to bring a chance
of scattered showers along a ahead of the boundary Tuesday
afternoon and night. We cannot rule out patchy fog ahead of the
front Tuesday evening. Typically, the expected moisture levels
would not be considered sufficient for sea fog. But the cold ocean
temperatures could lower moisture thresholds needed for fog. Thus,
we have kept patchy fog in the forecast for now. Winds increase
from the north behind the front. Caution flags will likely be
warranted on Wednesday and Thursday. Could not rule out advisories
in the Gulf. Winds are expected to decrease Friday, and become
more south to southwest by the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  58  71  42  63 /  10  50  10   0
Houston (IAH)  58  70  47  64 /  10  70  50   0
Galveston (GLS)  57  64  51  61 /   0  50  80  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Tuesday morning for
     GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion