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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

103
FXUS64 KHGX 212323
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
623 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rainfall expected on Wednesday with potential for
  locally heavy rainfall that could lead to instances of street
  flooding.

- Daily chances for showers/storms going into the weekend.

- Gradual warming trend with temperatures reaching the upper 80s
  by the end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Light to moderate rain continues this afternoon, and gradually
tapers off this evening. So far soils have been able to handle the
steady rainfall today.

Tonight will feature a brief reprieve from heavy rainfall with
another round of rain expected Wednesday in association with
a second shortwave. Showers will start out sporadic in the
morning, but once daytime heating kicks in, we will see the radar
fill in with scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. The
Marginal Risk area for excessive rainfall encompasses an area
generally east of the Brazos River.

Conditions dry out slightly on Thursday, but the series of
shortwaves will continue to result in daily rain chances through
the end of the week. An upper level low and frontal boundary will
impact the area on Saturday. While the front itself is anticipated
to remain outside of our forecast area, it will provide a lifting
mechanism for showers and thunderstorms. Will need to monitor for
the potential for some of those storms to become strong to severe.
SPC currently has the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods areas
outlooked in a 15% chance of severe weather for Saturday.

Temperature wise, remained on the cooler side today with rain and
cloud cover. Expect that we will warm up through the end of the
week with highs in the low to mid 80s. Rain chances and cloud
cover may result in temperatures that are just shy of the forecast
high. Lows will be in the 50-60s tonight and in the 60s to low 70s
through the rest of the week.

Bailey

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Showers should taper off this evening with only sparse rain
chances overnight. MVFR to IFR CIGs are anticipated to scatter out
in may areas for a brief period in the evening, then fill back in
early Wednesday morning. Scattered showers start to develop across
the region again early on Wednesday with coverage slowly rising
into the late morning as CIGs scatter/lift in most spots.
Scattered thunderstorms may develop over portions of SE Texas
Wednesday afternoon. Showers and storms should taper off during
the late afternoon, with only light and very sparse showers
anticipated Wednesday night.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 141 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Small craft will need to exercise caution through the afternoon
in the Gulf waters. Moderate southeasterly winds persist
throughout the day today, but will subside going into tonight.
The elevated southeasterly winds will lead to an increased risk of
rip currents early this week. An extended fetch of moderate
southeasterly winds around midweek will likely lead to another
round of increased seas, especially in the offshore Gulf waters.
This may lead to another period of caution flags on Wednesday into
Thursday for the Gulf waters. Increased chances for storms return
Tuesday into Wednesday as an upper level disturbance pushes
through. Water levels are expected to remain near 3.0 feet above
Mean Lower Low Water during high tide cycles through at least the
end of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  63  80  67  83 /  30  50  20  10
Houston (IAH)  65  81  69  84 /  30  60  20  20
Galveston (GLS)  72  79  73  80 /  40  60  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 PM CDT this evening
     for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Bailey

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion