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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

852
FXUS64 KHGX 071832
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
132 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...New MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered seabreeze showers and thunderstorms expected on a
  daily basis through early next week.

- There is a chance of more numerous showers and thunderstorms on
  Sunday and/or Monday.

- Seasonably hot with highs in the 90s and heat index values
  101-108F each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

The forecast is looking a lot like the month of August, with
afternoon high temperatures in the 90s and moderate to high
humidity. There is a daily risk of shower/thunderstorm activity
for most of the forecast period, though there will be some day to
day variation in PoPs. So let`s jump right into it by first
looking at the large / synoptic scale.

Water vapor imagery shows a somewhat amplified pattern over North
America, with a ridge over W CONUS, some troughing over the
Midwest and Mississippi River Valley, and another ridge over the
Atlantic near E CONUS. The SE Texas atmosphere is feeling the
influence from the both the ridge to the west and the trough over
the Mississippi River Valley. Ridging is dominant enough to
prevent widespread convective initiation. But it`s also weak
enough to not prevent convective initiation. Already, we have some
shower/thunderstorm activity firing up near the coast. We`ll
likely see this activity push inland with the sea breeze boundary.
Saturday appears similar, though with PoPs extending a little
farther inland that what we have today.

As we head into the Sunday-Tuesday time frame, the aforementioned
trough erodes, as the overall pattern across CONUS becomes more
zonal. That being said, the two ridges (W CONUS ridge & Atlantic
ridge) remain in place, while a weakness in the ridge lingers
across the Midwest and Mississippi River Valley. This will support
a steering current regime that takes whatever is in the Gulf
towards Texas/Louisiana. Fortunately, we don`t have any tropical
concerns. But we do have a mid-level trough and associated plume
of deep tropical moisture in the eastern Gulf. This pattern will
push the moisture plume in our direction, which could increase
shower/thunderstorm coverage by Sunday or Monday. However, there
is disagreement in the guidance regarding the exact trajectory of
the moisture plume. ECMWF deterministic / ensemble guidance
suggest the heart of the plume pushes into SE Texas, bringing a
pretty good chance of at least scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The AI version of the ECMWF also appears quite
moist. The GFS deterministic/global/AI guidance has been drier,
throwing the bulk of the PWAT towards Louisiana. That being said,
the most recent GFS guidance is trending a little wetter. So I`m
not going to be surprised if the current PoPs need increasing if
the latest trends continue.

Ridging is expected to build over our region as we head into the
middle to latter park of next week, suggesting a lower PoPs and
hotter temperature regime. Thus, you`ll notice a rise in the temps
and a decrease in the PoPs when you look at your location specific
forecast. Perhaps the lone wild card is a mid/upper disturbance
the guidance is throwing towards Mexico / deep south Texas. If
that disturbance could track a little farther north, then we could
have higher PoPs at the end of next week. For now, daily PoPs
beyond Tuesday are very low.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

A few thunderstorms have begun to pop up this afternoon along the
seabreeze. Storms are expected to move inland through the rest of
the afternoon and early evening. Around these storms, expect
elevated and variable winds of 10-15KTS and gusts up to 25KTS. This
pattern of afternoon thunderstorms along the seabreeze will be
repetitive over the next several days. Winds are generally out of
the SSW today, go near calm overnight, and pick back up by late
tomorrow morning out of the SSW-SSE. As for VIS, another round of
patchy fog is expected early tomorrow morning, especially in areas
where winds become near calm overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Generally light to moderate south to southeast winds are expected
through the middle of next week. Gulf seas should average 2-4
feet. There will be a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms
through early next week. Shower / thunderstorm activity could
become more widespread on Monday, though there is a little
uncertainty regarding how much the coverage will be. Late next
week is generally looking drier and hotter.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  75  95  75  95 /   0  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)  78  94  78  95 /   0  30  10  30
Galveston (GLS)  82  91  82  90 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...MLG
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion