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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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429
FXUS64 KHGX 021732
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1232 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant weather settling into the region for the remainder of
  the weekend into early next week.

- Next cold front and associated scattered showers/storms
  forecast for Wednesday and Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Dry pleasant conditions, with cool overnight lows and warm
daytime highs will continue for the next couple days. We`ll see a
gradual warming/moistening trend early next week as surface high
pressure transitions to the east and onshore winds resume.

Toward midweek, the mid/upper trof situated off the coast of the
Pacific Northwest will partially phase with one dropping southward
from Canada into the Plains. Its associated surface dryline and
frontal boundary will make its way into the area Wednesday and
probably generate some sct shra/tsra during the day until the
frontal boundary moves off the coast Wed night. Blended guidance
in the fcst wants to maintain some rain chances Thurs behind the
front, but it might be a bit too high based on most deterministic
data so we`ll have to watch trends and possibly make some future
downward adjustments if necessary.

Southern periphery of the aforementioned mid/upper trof breaks off
and retrogrades southwestward toward Baja late in the work week.
Disturbances riding along the swly flow aloft and the return of
llvl Gulf moisture could provide additional rain chances heading
into next weekend as the trof kicks out to the ene. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the weekend with mostly clear
skies. Northeasterly winds around 8-12kt with gusts to 20-25kt
(occasionally higher at the coast) will persist through this
afternoon, then light and variable winds will begin tonight and
persist through Sunday as high pressure builds over the region.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Winds and seas should continue to gradually diminish for the
remainder of the day and will be phasing the SCA`s out from
north-to-south this afternoon and evening. Surface high pressure
moves off to the east Sunday allowing light onshore winds to
resume. Speeds will increase Monday-Wednesday with a tighter
pressure gradient in place. The next cold front is forecast to
push off the coast Wednesday night.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  54  79  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  55  80  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  65  77  70  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 3 PM CDT this
     afternoon for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ350-
     355.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 PM CDT this evening
     for GMZ350-355.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion