Skip to main content.

National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

Related quick links> 5 Day Forecast, Local Advisories, Drought Monitor, UV Forecast, Air Quality Forecast 
345
FXUS64 KHGX 121119
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
619 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated risk of rip currents remains through at least midweek.

- Gradual warming trend for most of the work week with daily
  chances for showers/storms.

- A cold front is expected to push through towards the end of the
  work week bringing cooler, drier conditions to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Just when you thought we`d never have to struggle to pronounce
Isaias again...he found a way to have another impact on our
forecast. Although the remnants of Isaias is continuing to move
northeastward over the Mid-Atlantic states, it has an axis of
moisture that`s extending along a frontal boundary down through
Florida and stretching into the Gulf. As surface high pressure over
the southeastern CONUS erodes and nudges slightly eastward, some of
that moisture will work its way in from the southwest overnight and
into Monday. We`re talking about going from PW values being less
than an inch on Sunday to near or above the MAX percentile (~2.23").
A saving grace is that we have a mid-level high overhead, so the air
will struggle to rise. However, with this much moisture and a
surface boundary nudging into the area, some showers/storms are
certainly in play beginning early-ish Monday morning around
Matagorda Bay and spreading further inland. The subsidence does look
to keep the rain from being widespread, and there does look to be
better consensus on areas west of I-45 having the best rain chances.
If a shower/storm manages to reach its peak efficiency (and fully
tap into the tropical moisture), we could see isolated instances of
a quick inch or so of rainfall.

This moisture sticks around through midweek and so does the mid-
level high...although the main ridge axis does slide further east by
midweek. This means our pattern of slightly increasing temperatures
(high temperatures in the lower 90s increasing ~1 degree per day)
and daily chances for isolated to widely scattered showers/storms
will persist into midweek. Something rather peculiar happens going
into late Wednesday...drier air pushes in from the east as it wraps
around high pressure centered over the southeastern CONUS. This
squashes our rain chances on Thursday and presents an interesting
scenario for what`s up ahead at the end of the work week. 850mb
temperatures will still be near-ish the 90th percentile, so we`ll
still top out in the low 90s...but it`ll be a dry heat! Alright
that`s enough of that...let`s talk about that cold front!

If you`ve been reading our AFDs since last week, then you`ll
remember that I`ve been throwing in a mention of a potential cold
front in mid October in a bonus section. Well...we`ve gone from the
days of wishcasting a cold front to actually FORECASTING one! :D Now
I won`t take credit for it...well full credit at least, but let`s
talk about what`s in store. We gotta go back in time a lil bit, so
bear with me. An upper level trough with an embedded low that is
currently over the Pacific Northwest will gradually nudge
southeastward towards the Four Corners by midweek. This will
generate surface low pressure (lee cyclogenesis) in the Central
Plains. The mid to upper level flow is generally northeastward, so
the surface low will push northeastward...and rather quickly at that
as it goes from the Central Plains midweek to the northeastern CONUS
by Thursday night. The upper level trough phases with another one
that will be dipping down from southern Canada after midweek, but it
does appear an upper low will be able to cutoff and linger around
the Baja Peninsula. The latter of that isn`t really important right
now, but what is important to note is the strong surface high
pressure (1036+ mb) associated with a cold front that will get
nudged southward from the combined upper level troughs.

The question that remains is when does this cold front push into our
area and how much of the colder air will we have access to. The
answer to both of those as of right now is...*shrug emoji*. I can
say that the drier air that pushes in ahead of the front does look
to limit our rain chances in associated with the actual frontal
passage (FROPA). We might be able to squeeze out some rain closer to
coast, but otherwise this looks to be mostly a dry FROPA. A
potential timeframe for FROPA still looks to be some time on Friday,
but it`s too early to be more specific than that. While we don`t
know exactly how cold we`ll get behind this front, we do know that
there will be SOME temperature drop behind it along with much
drier air...so let`s take a look at things probabilistically.

Plugging in for the probabilities for low temperatures less than 60
degrees, we get 0% through Thursday night. On Friday night, these
probabilities increase to 20-50% but on Saturday...oh man! On
Saturday, these probabilities increase to 50-70%! The last time that
the City of Houston saw temperatures below 60 degrees was in early
May, which was roughly 160 days ago. It`s not a slam dunk that we`ll
see low temperatures be this cool, but it certainly is the best
chance that we`ve had over the past ~23 weeks (but who`s counting?).
Hey we were able to manifest the cold front, now let`s see if we can
manifest some 50s! Portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods
will likely see this, but I want all of us to join in on them!

Y`all know I`m gonna peek into fantasy land again and see if this
cooler weather will last a while. Unfortunately, the trends aren`t
in our favor with chances for above normal temperatures climbing
going into early next week. It`s another False Fall :( But we`ll
enjoy the cooler air while we have it! The weekend looks like it`ll
be absolutely phenomenal! Just throwing it out there that the
probability for HIGH temperatures below 80 degrees is generally
between 50-80% for Saturday and Sunday...plan accordingly.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

SE winds should average 7-12 knots today, with gusts up to around
20 knots at times during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Scattered SHRA is expected west of I-45. Some uncertainty as to
whether or not SHRA remains just west of our terminals. CLL
appears to have the best shot of seeing a little rain today, but
we cannot rule out the other terminals receiving a brief shower.
Winds become light overnight, with an increasing risk of MVFR/IFR
cigs north of I-10. The best chance of sub-VFR conditions is
after 06Z and predominantly north of IAH. But IAH may be right on
the line between VFR and sub-VFR by tomorrow morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Southeasterly winds became increasingly moderate in the bays and
Gulf waters leading to the issuance of caution flags through early
Monday morning for the bays and through the afternoon for the Gulf
waters. Light to moderate southeasterly winds will prevail for at
least the first half of the work week, so an elevated risk of rip
currents remains. Another consequence of the occasionally moderate
southeasterly flow is the abnormally high water levels. PETSS
guidance reflects water levels peaking around 3.5 ft MLLW during
high tide for most of the work week.

A cold front is expected to push through the region some time on
Friday, but some uncertainty remains on just how strong the front
will be. Mariners should stay up to date on the forecast as there is
potential for strong winds and very elevated seas behind this front
towards the end of the week.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  91  74  94  75 /  30  10  40   0
Houston (IAH)  91  77  92  77 /  40  10  50   0
Galveston (GLS)  87  81  86  80 /  50  30  40  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT this morning
     for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for
     GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion