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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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916
FXUS64 KHGX 250650
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1250 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freezing rain and sleet are ongoing across the Brazos Valley and
  the Piney Woods and will continue expanding southward towards
  the Houston Metro and potentially the coast by Sunday morning.
  Ice may be heavy enough to result in power outages in some
  areas, particularly in the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods.

- Ice Storm Warnings, Winter Storm Warnings, and Winter Weather
  Advisories are in effect across Southeast Texas.

- ANY amount of ice can result in dangerous travel conditions.
  Travel impacts will last until at least Monday as moisture
  refreezes on roadways. Impacts possible through Tuesday at least
  in the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley.

- Extended periods of below freezing temperatures along with hard
  freezes are expected Sunday morning through Tuesday morning.
  Portions of the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley will stay below
  freezing for multiple days.

- Dangerously cold wind chills are expected, with values ranging
  from as low as 10 degrees at the coast and as low as near 0
  degrees in the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley.

- Be advised that conditions will continue to gradually
  deteriorate throughout the night into Sunday morning as the
  freezing line continues to expand southward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1250 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

The freezing line continues to gradually expand southward and thus
so does the potential for freezing. Since we are in the midst of
winter storm/ice storm conditions, I`ll keep this discussion mainly
tailored at what`s happening, what to expect, and the resultant
impacts. I`ll keep the sciency jargon to a minimum, I want you to
have all the information you need to stay safe. I`m also going to
separate the initial discussion into three different regions. You`ll
be able to find your applicable region and we`ll discuss everything
you need to know. Afterwards, we`ll discuss ways to stay safe and to
stay warm from the extremely cold conditions that stick with us
going into next week. To finish things up, we`ll briefly discuss
weather conditions towards the middle to late part of the week. I
know what some of you may have seen/heard about next weekend, but
let`s focus all of our attention on what`s going on right now first.

Before we dive in, I have a quick request to help us out with winter
precipitation reports overnight into Sunday morning! There`s an app
called mPING that you can download on your smartphone. This app
gives you the ability to submit what type of precipitation is
falling at your location. This will help us keep track of exactly
where the transition line of rain to freezing rain and/or sleet is.
Now we`re not asking anyone to put themselves in any danger and get
out on the road to submit reports. These reports can be sent from
the comfort of your home. Thanks in advance for your assistance! o7


Brazos Valley/Piney Woods
-------------------------

As expected, there was a brief lull in precipitation (other than
mist) during the late afternoon to early evening hours. While this
was occuring, temperatures at the surface continued to gradually
decrease and eventually began falling below freezing in some spots
as early as 4-5pm. We`ve been monitoring the mesonet site at Texas
A&M as well (Howdy Ags!) and that station dropped below freezing
between 7pm-8pm. This is a bit later than anticipated, but the
anticipated impacts remain the same...we`ll discuss that in the next
paragraph. The next wave of precipitation will move in closer to
midnight as a 35-45 kt low-level jet (elevated winds around 5,000 ft
above the ground) expands across Southeast Texas. This wave of
freezing rain could be moderate to heavy at times as model guidance
is still insisting on a frontogenetic band passing through the area.
Think of this as a focus point for enhanced precipitation. This is
why in some model guidance, there`s a band of higher
accumulations/totals (exact location of that is still iffy though).
Within this band, it`s entirely possible for some instances of
thunder as well. Ice accumulations in this region are expected to be
around 0.25" with some potential for higher amounts closer to 0.5"
in the Piney Woods. Later tonight into early Sunday morning, as the
surface freezing layer continues to deepen, there is expected to be
a changeover to a freezing rain/sleet mix. Sleet accumulations up to
0.5" will be possible in this region. The window for frozen
precipitation lasts through early Sunday morning around sunrise
before coming to an end. You could make the argument though that as
the sub-freezing temperature column continues to deepen on early
Sunday morning (would need some wet bulbing assistance as well) that
a few flurries could mix in over the Piney Woods at the tail-end of
the precip window.

Keep in mind that ice accumulations over 0.25" can lead to weather-
related power outages as ice accumulates on trees and power lines.
Additionally, pine trees in the Piney Woods still have their needles
so they would be more susceptible to ice accumulations. If enough
ice accumulates on them, then we could see large branches and/or
trees falling over in this area. As a result, a Winter Storm Warning
remains in effect for portions of the Brazos Valley west of I-45
through Sunday afternoon and an Ice Storm Warning remains in effect
for portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods along and east of I-45
through Sunday afternoon. Travel conditions in these areas are
expected to be hazardous and may remain so going into Tuesday
morning. This is because temperatures are expected to remain below
freezing in the daytime on Sunday AND Monday. Monday will feature
plenty of sunshine in the afternoon though, so there may be some
melting...yep ice can melt even though temperatures remain below
freezing. This does mean though that temperatures are expected to
remain below freezing for 60+ consecutive hours in portions of the
Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods. Northeastern areas could see
as much as 70+ consecutive hours below freezing.

Extremely cold temperatures are also a hazard and we do want you to
take this seriously. There will be a hard freeze tonight with low
temperatures falling in the low to mid 20s, and keep in mind that
there will be frozen precipitation falling tonight into Sunday
morning. Factoring in the northerly winds, we`ll see wind chill
values in the single digits to low 10s. Wind chill values will
bottom out the most on Sunday night into Monday morning as air
temperatures fall into the low to mid 10s, but it`ll feel like near
0 for the most northern areas with widespread wind chills in the
single digits. Monday night will be the coldest night air
temperature wise with clear skies and light winds. Low temperatures
Monday night into Tuesday morning will fall into the single digits
to mid 10s across this portion of the region. Another hard freeze is
expected Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with lows in the upper
10s to mid 20s. An Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect through
Tuesday afternoon.

It`s very important that you are enacting your plan to keep
yourself, your loved ones, and your home safe and warm. The
anticipated ice accumulations may result in weather-related power
outages, so it`s important that you have a plan in place on how to
stay warm in this scenario. Ensure that generators are only used
outdoors and away from windows, and make sure that you have a carbon
monoxide detector (with fresh batteries) as well. Never use a gas
stove to warm your home and never plug a space heater into anything
other than directly into an outlet. Make sure that your family and
friends are aware of the forecast and that they have plans to stay
safe and warm as well. Pipes may freeze and burst if not properly
insulated and protected. Remember that many locations in this region
may remain below freezing through Tuesday morning. If you plan on
being outdoors in the evening to early morning hours during this
period, be sure to dress in layers and protect yourself from the
elements. If you would feel uncomfortable sleeping outside in these
conditions, don`t make your pets do it either. Don`t forget to
protect your plants as well!


Houston Metro Area/Along I-10
-----------------------------

Before we even talk about the freezing rain potential, we gotta talk
about the elephant in the room. Temperatures in and around the
Houston metro area are still holding strong in the mid to upper 30s
(as of ~11pm CST), so what gives?! Why is Corpus Christi at 34F and
Houston/Bush Airport is 37F?! What`s causing this tilted freeze
line?! Well the surface map reveals a rather deep trough extending
from the Red River down into South TX, this is why temperatures out
west are becoming colder than eastern areas as they are more into
the northwesterly flow. Out east over the Houston metro area, there
remains northeasterly flow so the temperatures have been a bit more
hesitant to fall below freezing. That being said, temperatures are
still anticipated to fall over the next few hours and become sub-
freezing around midnight or later (we`ll see if this AFD goes out in
time before this becomes a retroactive statement). Once the
temperatures fall below freezing, we are expecting a changeover to
freezing rain. Based on the latest high-resolution guidance, the
surface freezing layer may deepen enough for more a freezing
rain/sleet mix, especially if a heavier band of precipitation
develops. This would be most likely in the 3am-6am timeframe. There
is also potential for a few rumbles of thunder in any of the heavier
precipitation that falls, we`ve already seen instances of this over
in Central Texas.

Ice accumulations of around a tenth of an inch are anticipated
around the Houston metro area. As we mentioned above, there could be
a changeover to sleet in heavier precipitation. This would limit ice
accumulations, but would make road conditions more of a hazard. In
any case, even a TRACE of ice can create hazardous road conditions
especially on elevated roadways. Be sure to check the road
conditions before traveling if you absolutely must travel,
especially if your routes include any bridges or overpasses. There
is some potential that the heavy rains from Saturday morning may
lead to the pre-treated roadways being less effective. A Winter
Storm Warning remains in effect through Sunday afternoon for this
region. The precipitation window comes to an end roughly around 7-
9am Sunday morning.

The question then becomes will temperatures rise above freezing in
the afternoon? The answer to that question is...it depends. Areas
generally north and west of the metro area are more likely to remain
at or below freezing throughout the day. Elsewhere, it is more
likely that temperatures briefly rise above freezing into the low to
mid 30s for a few hours then fall back below freezing. Any remaining
wet surfaces will refreeze going into Sunday night/Monday morning
with low temperatures falling into the upper teens to low 20s. Wind
chill values on this night will range from the upper single digits
to the low 10s. Monday night into Tuesday morning will be the
coldest night with low temperatures falling into the upper teens to
low 20s. An Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect through Tuesday
afternoon. A couple of light freeze nights are expected on Tuesday
night and Wednesday night with lows generally in the upper 20s to
low 30s.

It`s very important that you are enacting your plan to keep
yourself, your loved ones, and your home safe and warm.  Never use a
gas stove to warm your home and never plug a space heater into
anything other than directly into an outlet. Make sure that your
family and friends are aware of the forecast and that they have
plans to stay safe and warm as well. Pipes may freeze and burst if
not properly insulated and protected. If you plan on being outdoors
in the evening to early morning hours during this period, be sure to
dress in layers and protect yourself from the elements. If you would
feel uncomfortable sleeping outside in these conditions, don`t make
your pets do it either. Don`t forget to protect your plants as well!


Coastal Areas
-------------

When I originally started writing discussions for this event, it was
the Houston metro area that was the more tricky part of the
forecast. Now that has transitioned to coastal areas. I initially
want to briefly discuss the storms from this morning, since they
woke me up from my slumber. Widespread showers and storms lead to
widespread rain amounts peaking in the 2-3" range. We even issued a
Flood Advisory in Brazoria County just after sunrise! Now you may be
thinking, what does this have to do with our winter precip
potential. Well initially not much, but where temperatures fall
below freezing overnight into Sunday morning, any lingering wet
surfaces (mainly a concern for elevated roadways) could freeze
leading to hazardous road conditions. In terms of what`s going to
fall from the sky overnight into Sunday morning, that`s where things
get tricky. For inland portions of the coastal counties and areas
generally around Matagorda Bay, there is fairly good confidence on a
period of freezing rain with the main window being now through 5am
or so.

Further east along the immediate coast, things get tricky. One or
two degrees in either direction will make a big difference here, so
we`ll just discuss both options to cover our bases. Scenario 1,
temperatures fall below freezing. If this were to occur, the main
window for freezing rain would be around 5am-8am. Coincidentally,
along the coast is where model guidance is showing the best
potential for some embedded rumbles of thunder during this
timeframe. Since this will be borderline already...any moderate to
heavy precipitation could warm things up by a degree or two, then
bam back to regular ol` rain. Which brings us to scenario 2 or a
sequel to scenario 1, which is temperatures remain just above
freezing and we just have a cold rain with a few rumbles of thunder.
As a result of the above, a Winter Storm Warning remains in effect
for counties around Matagorda and generally inland areas of the
eastern coastal counties and a Winter Weather Advisory remains in
effect for areas along the immediate coast through Sunday afternoon.
Remember that there is still potential for trace ice accumulations,
and even a TRACE of ice can cause hazardous road conditions (mainly
a concern for elevated roadways). Also remember that all of that
rain from Saturday morning may inhibit the effectiveness of the pre-
treated roadways.

Our attention then turns to the temperatures. Temperatures on Sunday
night into Monday morning brings freezing conditions down to the
coast with lows ranging from the low to upper 20s. When you factor
in the northerly breeze, it`ll feel like the low to mid 10s. Also
keep in mind that any lingering wet surfaces would freeze in these
conditions. Temperatures on Monday night into Tuesday morning will
be the coldest of this period with lows in the upper 10s to mid 20s.
That`s two nights of a hard freeze with additional light freezes the
following couple of nights after that going into midweek. It`s very
important that you are enacting your plan to keep yourself, your
loved ones, and your home safe and warm.  Never use a gas stove to
warm your home and never plug a space heater into anything other
than directly into an outlet. Make sure that your family and friends
are aware of the forecast and that they have plans to stay safe and
warm as well. Pipes may freeze and burst if not properly insulated
and protected. If you plan on being outdoors in the evening to early
morning hours during this period, be sure to dress in layers and
protect yourself from the elements. If you would feel uncomfortable
sleeping outside in these conditions, don`t make your pets do it
either. Don`t forget to protect your plants as well!


How Can You Stay Safe?
----------------------

Be sure to know the hazards of heating your home especially in the
event of a weather-related power outage (mainly a concern for
northern areas). Ensure that generators are only used outdoors and
away from windows, and make sure that you have a carbon monoxide
detector (with fresh batteries) as well. Never use a gas stove to
warm your home and never plug a space heater into anything other
than directly into an outlet. Make sure that your family, friends,
and neighbors are aware of the forecast and are enacting their plans
to stay safe and warm as well. Travel conditions will be hazardous
in portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods. We`ve also
receive reports of icy roads as far south as northern Jackson County
already. If you absolutely must travel, check the road conditions
before you go. Have supplies in your car, maintain distance, and
take it slow...especially over elevated roadways.

For additional winter safety information, visit `ready.gov` and
you`ll see a section titled "Winter Ready" right at the top of the
page where you can find all of the information above and more. Stay
safe and stay warm.


Mid-Week & Beyond
------------------

Cold temperatures prevail throughout the week with most locations
continuing to see freezing temperatures overnight (20s/30s) and
highs in the 40s/50s. Additionally, we are looking at another
frontal passage around midweek and another towards the end of the
work week. Precipitation chances also return towards the end of the
work week going into the weekend as an upper level disturbance
pushes in from the west resulting in a coastal trough or low. That`s
all I`ll say about that for now, but I will gently encourage you to
not place too much stock into a single deterministic model run this
far out. Ensembles have much more value in the long range and can
give you a better idea on how confident models are on a particular
solution.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1040 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Sub-freezing air is gradually pushing into the region while
scattered to widespread areas of precip continue to push into the
area form the southwest. CLL is already below freezing (and
reporting FZRA) while CXO and UTS are about to fall below
freezing. The freezing line is expected to push southeast,
reaching the Houston metro area overnight into the pre-dawn hours,
resulting in FZRA down to IAH, SGR, and HOU. A few bands of
heavier precip during the morning hours could bring brief bursts
of sleet. Precip is expected to end by mid/late morning, yielding
to a mostly cloudy day with gusty NW winds. IFR cigs may improve
to MVFR by late morning or afternoon. Winds may gust over 25 knots
at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1250 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

A strong winter storm will impact the waters of the northwest Gulf
and Upper Texas Coast over the next couple of days. Rain showers
will impact the waters through this morning and possibly into the
early afternoon. Locally heavy showers and even a thunderstorm are
possible. Near the coast, and especially inland, there will be a
chance of rain mixing with or changing over to sleet and freezing
rain. Best chance of wintry precipitation making it to the coast
this morning will be in the Matagorda Bay area. However, most
coastal areas have at least a slight chance of seeing wintry
precipitation. Light ice accumulations are possible, especially just
inland.

The system will produce strong north to northwest winds and building
seas through Monday. Bay waters will be rough while Gulf seas
offshore build to near 10 feet. Winds will generally be 20-30 knots.
Occasionally gusts to gale force (~35-37 knots) cannot be ruled
out. Winds and seas should improve by Tuesday and Wednesday,
remaining relatively benign through the end of the week. However,
enough storm system could bring hazardous winds and seas by next
weekend.

Self

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  28  16  32  10 /  20   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  35  21  38  18 /  50   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  42  27  41  32 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for TXZ163-164-
     176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
     436>439.

     Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ163-164-
     176>179.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ195>200-
     210>213-226-227-235>237-300-313-335.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ214-
     238-336>338-436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ350-355-370-
     375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion