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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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398
FXUS64 KHGX 021845
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
145 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected through early
  Sunday. Locally heavy rain will be possible and could lead to
  instances of flash flooding. Best chance of heavy rain in our
  coastal counties.


- Cold front pushes through early next week bringing drier air and
  slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Those of us in Southeast Texas find ourselves in a soupy
atmosphere. This is evident in surface observations, where much
of the area is warming into the 80s with dew points well into the
70s. These can also be seen via the satellite derived PWAT,
showing widespread values over 2.0 inches. The soupiness is also
evident via water imagery, revealing deep tropical moisture
pushing in from the Pacific thanks to a strong sub-tropical jet
between a cut-off low near the TX Bid Bend region and a ridge over
SE CONUS. In addition, there`s a mid/upper low over the SW Gulf
with a mid to lower trough extending northeastward from the low.
Scattered deep convection is occurring over the central Gulf near
the trough axis. Meanwhile, we are mostly dealing with widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms in southeast Texas. We should
see some increased scattered thunderstorms develop across our
southern zones where there`s an increasingly diffused sfc
boundary and a more unstable environment.

The forecast this weekend becomes tricky due to a plethora of
atmospheric moving parts. The aforementioned Gulf trough will push
westward, placing it on a trajectory towards the NW Gulf. We`ll
likely start seeing an increase in showers/thunderstorms offshore
tonight into Saturday morning as a result. The diffused front is
expected to push southward while the subtropical Pacific jet
weakens overhead. Despite the lost tropical connection from the
weakening jet, the SE Texas atmosphere will establish a new
tropical connection via the deep moisture plume enveloping the
Gulf trough. There`s some uncertainty regarding the trough`s
structure as it approaches our region. It should become
increasingly stretched and less organized. But it may also
contain some embedded LL/ML vort maxes, the track of which will be
difficult to forecast. What we know is that there will likely be an
elongated region of enhanced lift, deep tropical moisture, and
modest LL convergence. What we don`t know is whether or not these
conditions will line up along the coast, or just offshore.

The moving parts in the paragraph above result in a tricky rainfall
forecast this weekend. For now, we are going with 1-3 inches near
the coast, with mostly under an inch inland. But given the
moisture profile, there will be potential for locally much heavier
totals (particularly in our coastal zones). The general trend in
both the deterministic and ensemble guidance has favored the
heaviest rainfall occurring just offshore over the Gulf. But a small
nudge to the north and west would significantly increase the
chance of localized 5-6" totals at the coast. One thing worth
mentioning is that water levels at the coast will be higher than
normal. If a locally heavy thunderstorm happens over a coastal
community during high tide, the risk of flooding would increase.
Currently, high tide is occuring during the evening and overnight
hours.

The primary focus lately has been the short term
showers and thunderstorms. But there does appear to be some
goodies for us in the long term. By Tuesday and beyond, the
pattern takes a drier and more comfortable turn. The mid/upper
flow pattern gradually becomes more amplified, with the Lone Star
State feeling the influence of a deep layer trough over E CONUS.
Expect lower humidity with temperatures in the 80s. Overnight lows
are forecast to drop into the 60s away from the coast and outside
the urban heat island, though I couldn`t rule out a night or two
falling into the upper 60s in the heart of Houston`s urban core.

Self


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Winds are strengthening this afternoon around 10 kts from the
E/NE. Daytime heating reignites rain chances this afternoon after
our brief relief this morning. These storms are still moisture-rich,
meaning locally heavy downpours are possible and gusts could be
elevated around these storms. MVFR ceilings are lingering stubbornly
but should lift as the afternoon sun settles in. Of course, these
CIGs could fill back in for pockets of reduced flight conditions
around afternoon TS/SH. Storms should die out between 00Z-02Z
Saturday and winds drop to light and mostly northeasterly. The
exception will be along the coast and bays where winds remain
stronger around 10 kts, strengthening to 10-15 kts by 09Z Saturday.
We`re watching for SH/TS to develop along the coast late tonight and
linger throughout the day Saturday. These storms push inland around
18Z. Lastly, there is increasing confidence in CIGs returning to
MVFR or even IFR early Saturday morning for sites primarily along
and north of I-10, lifting again by the afternoon.

BSM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

The two primary concerns through this weekend will be locally
heavy thunderstorms and the potential for occasional Small Craft
Advisory conditions over the Gulf. An approaching trough will
steepen the pressure gradient, increasing NE winds to 15-20 knots
with occasional gusts to 25 knots. Winds over the open Gulf could
occasionally be sustained over 20 knots. There will likely be an
increase in Gulf seas to 4-5 feet over the weekend. During the
Monday-Wednesday time frame, we expect shower/thunderstorm chances
to linger offshore, while areas closer to the coast are forecast
to be mostly dry. Meanwhile, northeast winds may increase further,
increasing the chance of Small Craft Advisories. In addition, we
cannot rule out offshore seas up to 6-7 feet during this time
frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  83  70  84  69 /  60  30  50  50
Houston (IAH)  89  75  88  74 /  60  30  50  50
Galveston (GLS)  89  80  87  78 /  50  60  80  80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ177-195>199-
     210>213-226-227-235-313-335.

GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...BSM
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion