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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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182
FXUS64 KHGX 261834
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1234 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Northern portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods may
  remain below freezing or very briefly rise above freezing this
  afternoon. Icy conditions may persist in this region, but
  extended periods of sunshine should aid in some melting today.

- Very cold temperatures expected tonight into Tuesday morning.
  Any lingering wet surfaces will refreeze again in these
  conditions.

- A gradual warming trend is expected through Thursday. However, a
  strong cold front is expected to push through late
  Thursday/early Friday with the potential for another round of
  hard freezes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Temperatures this morning were certainly frigid as most locations
bottomed out in the mid 10s to mid 20s...and with a northerly breeze
it felt even colder than that! The good news is that sunshine is on
its way. Current visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover on a
gradual decreasing trend from north to south, and most locations
will see the sun by the afternoon hours. Even though the
temperatures in portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods may remain
below freezing (or briefly rise above freezing for an hour or two),
plentiful sunshine will help in the sublimation/melting process of
the ice. Just keep in mind that even if things melt, if the surfaces
remain wet then they`ll just refreeze again tonight into Tuesday
morning. High temperatures elsewhere will range from the mid 30s to
low 40s. We`ll have a northerly breeze around 10-15 mph with some
gusts near 20 mph through the afternoon which should help in the
drying process. Same thing goes for even our southern locations
though...a hard freeze tonight will refreeze any lingering wet
surfaces.

With skies being mostly clear overnight and paired with light winds,
we have a good setup for radiational cooling to give us our coldest
air temperatures of this event. Expecting low temperatures tonight
to range from the low 10s up north to the low 20s around the metro
area. That means another widespread hard freeze is in store for us,
so it`s important that you keep your cold weather safety plans going
to stay warm and to protect your loved ones. If you plan on being
outdoors overnight or in the morning (especially those waiting
outdoors for buses), be sure bundle up in layers to protect yourself
from the elements. Pipes may freeze and burst if not properly
insulated and protected in these conditions. An Extreme Cold Warning
remains in effect for all of Southeast Texas through Tuesday morning.

There is one potential caveat to tonight`s low temperature
forecast...that`ll be the introduction of upper level moisture
moving in from the west. An embedded shortwave will be on approach
straight from the Pacific, but it doesn`t look like it`ll get close
enough to generate upper level clouds till after sunrise. It`s worth
mentioning though that we`ll have upper level speed divergence as a
southwest to northeast oriented jet streak just to our east
continues to gradually nudge eastward. If those upper level clouds
manage to develop early, then that`d inhibit the radiational
cooling...but all of the high-res guidance insists that this won`t
happen. Either way, it`s still going to be very cold tonight into
Tuesday morning. You`ll notice increased cloud cover on Tuesday as
the embedded shortwave passes through the region. High temperatures
on Tuesday will top out in the low 40s to low 50s. Another freeze is
expected Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with a hard freeze (24
degrees or less) for the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods and a light
freeze (26-32 degrees) elsewhere. Areas right along the coast will
remain above freezing.

This gradual "warming" trend continues through midweek as we have
high temperatures in the 40s/50s on Wednesday and the 50s/60s on
Thursday. Another freeze expected on Wednesday night, but expecting
it to be a light freeze for most of the area. On Thursday night,
most of us (except far northern locations) get a break from dropping
below freezing with lows ranging from the low 30s to low 40s. That
break is short-lived though with another strong cold front pushing
through late Thursday into early Friday. Onshore flow develops just
ahead of this front, which is how a decent chunk of the area will
manage to top out near or above 60 degrees. A coastal trough
develops out ahead of the front leading to a surge of moisture south
of I-10. So, rain chances will be highest along and south of the I-
10 corridor both ahead of and along the frontal boundary itself as
it pushes through.

Another round of freezing temperatures is likely in the wake of the
next front with some potential for a couple of nights with hard
freezes (24 degrees or less). Let`s take a look at things
probabilistically. For Friday night, portions of the Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods have a 60-90% probability for a hard freeze.
Elsewhere there is generally a 30-50% chance. On Saturday night,
there is 60-90% probability for a hard freeze essentially
everywhere. It`s too early to say that it`s a slam dunk for a hard
freeze, but this should give you an indication that the potential is
fairly high. Long story short, don`t put away your heavy jackets or
the insulation for your pipes just yet...

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 515 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

MVFR ceilings to start the morning, but cloud cover will be on a
decreasing trend from north to south going into the early
afternoon. Northern terminals are clearing out early this morning
(~12Z), the Houston metro areas are expected to clear out around
16-18Z, and coastal terminals are expected to clear out around
18-20Z. Breezy northerly winds prevail throughout the day with
sustained winds in the 10-15 kt range with 20-25 kt gusts. Winds
will trend towards light and variable after sunset and prevail
into Tuesday.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1234 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Northerly winds around 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt along with 5-7
ft seas will continue through this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect for the Gulf waters through 6pm CST Monday. Winds
and seas will continue on a gradual decreasing trend throughout the
day. The other main story is the abnormally low water levels. During
times of low tide, water levels are expected to decrease to as much
as 1 to 2 feet below MLLW. The lowest of those values are expected
in the upper bays. Abnormally low water levels may stick around
through the end of the work week.

Rain chances return late Thursday into early Friday as a strong cold
front pushes through. Hazardous winds and seas are expected in the
wake of this front, and potentially a continuation of the
abnormally low water levels into the weekend.

Batiste

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1220 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Record low temperatures:

January 26:
Houston Intercontinental (IAH): 23 (1943)
Houston Hobby (HOU): 24(1940)
Galveston (GLS): 25 (1940)
Palacios (PSX): 30 (1961)

January 27:
Houston Intercontinental (IAH): 19 (1897)
Houston Hobby (HOU): 18 (1940)
Galveston (GLS): 21 (1897)
Palacios (PSX): 29 (1976)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  15  42  22  47 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  21  49  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  33  50  42  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for TXZ163-164-
     176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
     436>439.

GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ350-355-
     370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion