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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

284
FXUS64 KHGX 051121
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
621 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerously hot conditions will continue today. Widespread heat
  indicies of 105-107F (41-42C) with locally higher values over
  108F (43C +) are likely.

- Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
  possible this afternoon. Generally across the southeastern half
  of the area, including the Houston Metro. Chance of isolated to
  scattered seabreeze showers/storms increases slightly early
  next week.

- High pressure builds into the area by midweek, reducing
  precipitation chances for the second half of the workweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

The stout ridge that dominated the weather pattern across the
eastern U.S has continued to break down. The transient ridge that
developed across Southwest Texas and eastern New Mexico yesterday
will break down today. This will allow for a decrease in heights
across our region this afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. This
will allow for a greater coverage in afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. Towards the middle of the week, heights look to build
back in as mid-level ridging increases. Quiet conditions are seen
across the region.

The main change with this package was to introduce a broad area of
20% PoPs across the Gulf Coast and southern portions of the Western
Piney Woods and Southeast Texas. The 00z CAMS want to develop
showers and thunderstorms where outflow boundaries to the north and
the seabreeze to the south interact. THe 00z HRRR in particular
depicted robust thunderstorms across Harris County this evening.
There remains uncertainty in coverage of storms due to somewhat
limited moisture, so PoPs were kept isolated with this package. If
trends continue amongst the CAMS with the 12z package, shower
coverage may need to be increased to scattered. Heights look to
continue to fall Monday and into Tuesday across the area. Meanwhile,
moisture looks to increase across the region. This would support
isolated to scattered showers and storms during the afternoon hours
across the region.

The hot weather will continue for the foreseeable future across the
region. Heat indices could approach Heat Advisory criteria of 108F
(43C +) across isolated portions of the forecast area today,
especially in locations that do not see showers and storms.
Temperatures look to drop a degree or two on Monday and Tuesday due
to height falls and increased cloud cover from scattered showers and
thunderstorms. As we head towards the middle of the week, ridging
looks to build back into the region. This will decrease rain chances

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Patchy fog has developed again this morning which will lead to
brief MVFR vis over the next hour or so. Otherwise, VFR conditions
and light south-southwest winds will prevail through this TAF
cycle. Have continued with the mention of PROB30 for TSRA for most
sites after 00Z to account for activity developing along outflow
boundaries heading our way from the north. Amendments will likely
be needed to better refine the timing once convection develops.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Generally light onshore flow will persist through today and into
early this week. Overall, Gulf seas are expected to average 1 to 3
feet. Isolated coastal and Gulf showers will be possible each
morning, with a chance of isolated thunderstorms along the sea
breeze in the afternoon. Winds and seas begin to increase by the
middle to later part of next week, with a gradually steepening
pressure gradient. Onshore winds are forecast to increase to 10 to
15 knots by Tuesday and Wednesday, before increasing further to the
15 to 20 knot range by Thursday. Seas may increase to 3 to 4 feet by
the end of the upcoming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  96  77  95  77 /  10   0  20  10
Houston (IAH)  97  79  95  79 /  20  20  20  10
Galveston (GLS)  90  82  90  83 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...Castillo
MARINE...Williams

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion