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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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385
FXUS64 KHGX 311048
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
548 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warm conditions continue through the weekend. Make sure
  to be prepared for the warmer temperatures if you plan to work
  or spend time outdoors.

- Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon
  hours beginning Monday through midweek, then increased chances
  through the second half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Continued warm weather will persist through at least mid-week as
a ridge of high pressure remains over the Southern Plains. High
temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s (with isolated
spots reaching the mid-90s) and afternoon heat indices climbing to
near 100. Overnight low temperatures will be in the mid to upper
70s. The high pressure over the region is relatively weak allowing
for moisture to creep in giving us some partly cloudy skies
during the day mostly cloudy skies at night (along with some very
patchy fog potential).

Weak shortwaves moving through the ridge combined with daytime
heating will lead to isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity beginning on Monday. Chances will be greatest along the
coast on Monday along the afternoon seabreeze. A weak boundary will
approach the region from the northeast on Tuesday, which could help
initiate activity across much of the region - if it is able to push
into the region. This time of year, these weak boundaries from the
northeast end up stalling/dissipating before reaching SE Texas,
so this is certainly a possibility. If this boundary doesn`t push
in, then at least coastal showers/storms will be possible during
the afternoon. The daily slight chance of activity will persist
through the remainder of the week, but increased moisture
advection at the surface thanks to southeasterly winds may lead to
increased coverage.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 547 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Can`t rule out a few intermittent patches of MVFR cigs into mid
morning, but VFR conditions and S/SE winds 5-11kt will prevail
today and tonight. Later tonight, we could see some patchy late
night fog development in the Brazos Valley, though confidence is
on the low side. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Low seas and onshore winds (5-10kt with gusts to 15kt during the
overnight hours) will persist through Tuesday. A weak boundary
approaching from the northeast will help develop an easterly flow
Wednesday into Thursday with wind speeds increasing to 10-15kt and
seas to 3-5ft.

Isolated shower activity is possible over the coastal waters during
the overnight hours beginning Monday night. The chance for daily
showers and thunderstorms increase midweek through next weekend as
that weak boundary approaches the region and increased southeasterly
winds brings increased moisture.

Beginning midweek, we may also begin to see a moderate to high risk
of strong rip currents as the persistent onshore flow continues.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  91  75  92  75 /   0   0  10  10
Houston (IAH)  92  76  93  76 /   0   0  20  10
Galveston (GLS)  87  80  87  79 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Fowler

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion