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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

337
FXUS64 KHGX 261152
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
652 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered rain and storms possible through the day,
  with the best chances arriving late this evening.

- Next storm system moves into the area Tuesday evening into
  Wednesday. Will be monitoring the potential for some localized
  strong storms and heavy rain.

- Less active weather anticipated during the second half of the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

In the near term, lingering light to moderate showers associated
with outflow boundaries from decaying storms should weaken/taper
off in the next hour or so.

Scattered convective development remains possible during the daytime
hours today, focusing primarily along any remnant boundaries and the
inland-advancing sea breeze. Attention then turns to the next
series of shortwave troughs approaching from the west, as clearly
depicted on current IR satellite imagery. Persistent southerly
surface flow will continue to transport warm and humid air into
the region. PWAT values are forecast to climb back into the
90th-95th percentile of climatology, between 1.8 to 2.0 inches.
This highly moisture rich environment will easily support
scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms, with a risk for
training cells as clusters progress east-northeast. Latest model
guidance indicates a faster progression of this complex compared
to previous runs. Therefore, increasing showers and storms can be
expected as early as this evening, with the highest probabilities
overnight through early Wednesday. Will continue to monitor the
evolution of this MCS as it approaches Southeast Texas. Given
moderate mid-level lapse rates and sufficient deep layer shear
over TX, this system could potentially support strong to damaging
wind gusts. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected, though
localized pockets of 3 to 5 inches will be possible where training
occurs. Weather conditions for Wednesday afternoon/evening remain
highly conditional, depending heavily on the exact timing, path
and any cold-pool evolution of this MCS and its subsequent outflow
boundaries.

By Thursday and persisting into the upcoming weekend, subtle
shortwaves will continue to move across the region, but convection
will transition to a primarily diurnally driven regime. Overall
dynamic support will be minimal, so rainfall totals through the
weekend should remain on the lighter side.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 648 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

SGR experiencing MVFR CIGs this morning. Expect return to VFR
around mid-morning. All other sites at VFR. Generally quiet
through early afternoon hours. Could see isolated to scattered
convection develop mid-late afternoon. An MCS is anticipated to
move through overnight into Wednesday morning. Have included SHRA
for overnight into Wednesday morning with PROB30 for TSRA closer
to the end of the period. Some showers could produce heavy
downpours and result in localized flooding. Winds will generally
be light out of the south-southeast.

Bailey

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Onshore flow will persist through the week and into the upcoming
weekend. Light south to southeast winds will prevail today,
before becoming moderate late this evening into Wednesday morning.
Caution flags will be possible during this time frame. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms can be expected during the day,
particularly along the coast and over the bays. The best chance
for widespread rain/storms will be late this evening into early
Wednesday as a disturbance moves through from the west. Erratic
winds and building seas will be possible with any strong storms.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  88  72  80  70 /  10  80  80  30
Houston (IAH)  88  75  82  73 /  10  50  90  30
Galveston (GLS)  85  79  84  77 /  20  40  90  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion