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272
FXUS64 KHGX 011133
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
633 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch in effect through tonight. Showers and thunderstorms
  expected through this evening. Rainfall heavy at times. A few
  stronger thunderstorms capable of hail. Thunderstorms capable of
  strong winds possible near the coast.

- Gale Warning in effect for the Bays and Gulf this evening
  through midday Saturday. Winds and seas to become very hazardous
  for mariners.

- After a significant cool down today and this weekend, expect a
  gradual warm-up during the first half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

The long awaited upper low has finally arrived, bringing large
scale UL diffluence and strong mid/upper shear. At the surface, a
frontal boundary has stalled near the coast. This boundary may
nudge northward this afternoon, before crashing southward as
moderate to strong CAA pushes into the region from the north. The
large scale lift and deep tropical moisture overrunning the cooler
sfc air will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms. Locally
heavy rainfall is likely. Rainfall rates in the heaviest
showers/thunderstorms are expected to reach 2-3" per hour, which
is enough to result in localized flooding. Widespread rainfall
totals are expected to be in the 2-4 inch range, with some
potential for localized totals up to 5-6 inches. These amounts are
likely to result in rises to area rivers and watersheds, with
action to minor stage flooding the most likely outcome. In
addition, the environment will be favorable for embedded stronger
thunderstorms capable of hail. For areas along and south of the
front, we could have a damaging wind risk or even a tornado risk
today. This is mostly a potential issue for our coastal counties.

Temperatures north of the front will remain cool. If the front
moves far enough north, then our coastal zones could warm well
into the 70s. Meanwhile to the north, temperatures are expected to
be in the 60s. Our northern zones could spend much of the day in
the 50s. Showers and storms exit the region this evening, yielding
to a chilly, breezy night in the 50s (40s northern Piney Woods,
around 60 at the coast). Coastal areas are expected to become
downright windy. We may need to consider a wind advisory along the
coast this evening and tonight, where gusts could approach 40 MPH.
Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the Gulf waters.

The weekend is looking spectacular, with highs in the 70s and
overnight lows in the 40s and 50s (60s at the beaches). The cool
air won`t last long. Expect a warm-up during the early half of
next week. Temperatures may approach 90 with increasing humidity
Tuesday and Wednesday. Cold front may bring a chance of showers
and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday, followed by somewhat
lower temps (low 80s for highs) and lower humidity on Thursday
into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

A messy day is expected across SE Texas with persistent IFR to
MVFR CIGs (600-1200ft) and periods of showers and thunderstorms
throughout this evening. Main coverage of the showers and storms
will be north of I-10 through the morning, but expect the area to
grow down to the coast by the early afternoon and persist through
this evening. There will be west to east propagating rounds of
heavier rainfall/storms every couple of hours through the day, so
have predominately -SHRA VCTS with TEMPOs of TSRA for most TAF
sites. Expect visibility reductions to 1-2mi in heavier storms.
Activity will end from west to east between 01-04z this evening,
but the IFR to MVFR CIGs will persist through Saturday morning.

Northeasterly winds will prevail through the day around 10-15kt
with gusts to 25kt inland, and then gusts to 30-35kt expected
along the coast by the afternoon. The wind gusts inland will end
overnight, but the gusty winds will likely stick around at the
coast through Saturday morning.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 141 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Periods of rain and thunderstorms expected through this evening.
Locally stronger thunderstorms will be capable of hail, gale force
winds, and waterspouts. Winds today will generally be northeast
15-25 knots with gusts to 30 knots. Winds may gusts closer to 35
knots by late afternoon. Winds strengthen overnight, averaging
closer to 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots (possibly higher). Bay
waters become very rough while nearshore Gulf seas build to 6-9
feet, offshore seas to 9-13 feet. Conditions should gradually
improve Saturday. However, Small Craft level winds are likely to
continue into the afternoon while Gulf seas should remain above 6
feet well into Saturday evening or night.

A light southeasterly flow regime returns by Sunday. Winds become
southerly and increase by Tuesday into Wednesday. Cold front
brings a chance of showers and storms on Wednesday. Gusty east to
northeast winds and building seas are possible in the front`s wake
on Thursday into Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  62  51  71  50 / 100  60   0   0
Houston (IAH)  67  55  74  53 / 100  70   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  76  61  75  66 /  90  80   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ164-176>179-195>200-
     210>213-226-227-300-313.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for GMZ330-350.

     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Saturday for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ335-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion