Skip to main content.

National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

Related quick links> 5 Day Forecast, Local Advisories, Drought Monitor, UV Forecast, Air Quality Forecast 
134
FXUS64 KHGX 230501
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1201 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gradual warming trend with temperatures reaching the upper 80s
  by the end of the work week.

- Isolated rain chances now through the weekend. Cannot rule out
  some stronger or severe storms on these days either. `

- Front stalls out before reaching SE Texas around Monday with
  daily rain chances through mid next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Today should generally see lower coverage in showers/storms due to
rising heights within this semi-zonal flow pattern aloft. Better
instability and shear may be present, but the distinct lack of
forcing should keep convective activity isolated in nature. Still,
severe storms cannot be completely ruled out for this afternoon,
especially with how storms overperformed on Wednesday. Worth keeping
an eye on the radar in case any stronger storms manage to pull
together. Otherwise, anticipate warming conditions with highs in the
mid/lower 80 and lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

Still monitoring a period of potentially active weather from Friday
over the weekend. SE Texas will be under mostly zonal flow with
ample shear and instability in place across the region. For SE Texas
specifically, models show SFC CAPE from around 1700-3000 J/KG with
500mb shear around 30-45 knots. Several troughs/disturbances are
expected to pass to the north of our area around this time, thus
much of the best lift and forcing will keep north of our area as
well. SPC still maintains a Slight (level 2/5) Risk of severe
weather up against our northern boarder on Friday, Saturday, and
Sunday. While it`s not directly in our CWA for all of these days,
any southerly shift in those shortwaves/impulses may result in this
risk shifting into our area. Given the troublesome nature of these
northwest flow patterns, the severe risk is still in play for SE
Texas on these days too.

On Monday, a much more robust shortwave trough is anticipated to
fill north across the Plains. This feature will send a cold front
towards SE Texas, though ultimately it doesn`t appear as though
it`ll get here, slowing/stalling around the Brazos Valley/Piney
Woods area per long range ensemble guidance. A subtropical mid-level
high then builds in from the south on Tuesday, allowing low rain
chances and warmer weather to continue.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 732 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Lingering thunderstorms should taper off in the evening with
MVFR-IFR CIGS filling in overnight into early Thursday morning.
Cannot completely rule out some pockets of LIFR, especially for
any locations that got rainfall today. CIGs should clear out
Thursday morning with gusty winds setting in during the afternoon.
MVFR CIGs should fill in over the area again Thursday night.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds should continue through the
next several days. A long fetch of these southeasterly winds may
bring increased seas at times. This with periodically higher winds
may warrant caution flags at times. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day through the weekend. Above
normal water levels near 3.0 feet MLLW are still expect at each high
tide cycle through the end of the work week.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  79  66  84  69 /  60  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  80  68  84  71 /  80  20  20  20
Galveston (GLS)  79  72  80  74 /  70  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...03
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion