Skip to main content.

National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

Related quick links> 5 Day Forecast, Local Advisories, Drought Monitor, UV Forecast, Air Quality Forecast 
956
FXUS64 KHGX 020431
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1131 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily chances of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
  with the greatest chances late Saturday into Sunday as a cold
  front moves into/through the area.

- Unseasonably warm weather persists through Saturday, then the
  cold front ushers in cooler, more seasonal temperatures by
  Sunday and extending into early next week.

- Increasing risk of strong rip currents Thursday into the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Skies will be mostly cloudy during the overnight to early morning
hours with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s over Southeast TX.
The local pressure gradient will remain tight and the low level
jet will strengthen overnight, maintaining fairly breezy
conditions over much of Southeast TX. This will limit fog
development for much of the area. We could see a few streamer
showers moving in from the Gulf before sunrise.

A mid-upper level trough moving through the Plains tonight into
Thursday morning will fire up some storms over the northern and
central portions of TX. These showers and thunderstorms are
expected to push into the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region
around sunrise time and move southward during the afternoon hours.
Some showers could produces periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall, but significant flooding is not expected at this time.
If anything, we could see some ponding of water along roadways and
low lying areas. Most of the activity is expected to be focused
over areas near and north of I-10, thus, the coast may not see
much of this activity. The highs will be mainly in the lower 80s,
thanks to the rainfall and cloudy skies. Showers and thunderstorms
will dissipate during the late afternoon to early evening hours.
Skies will remain cloudy on Thursday night with lows in the
staying in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

The day will start off cloudy on Friday, gradually becoming
partly cloudy later in the afternoon. We could see some showers
and thunderstorms during the day, mainly for areas near and east
of I-45. The highs will be warming back into the mid to upper 80s
for most of the inland portions and the upper 70s to lower 80s
over the coasts. The day will be breezy again with Southeast winds
ranging between 12-20 mph with gusts of around 25 mph.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible over the Brazos Valley and
Piney Woods region late Friday night into early Saturday an upper
level trough moves through the Plains and a cold front pushes
across central TX. Activity will expand southward and intensify
during the afternoon hours as the front pushes across Southeast TX
and slows down as it nears the coastal counties. There are some
inconsistencies with when the rain ends after the frontal passage.
The GFS continues to carry rain chances into Sunday, possibly due
to isentropic lifting, while the ECMWF has a drier solution. We
will have some cooler temperatures on Saturday with this activity,
with highs possibly in the upper 70s over the Brazos Valley and
Piney Woods region and the lower to mid 80s elsewhere. Even cooler
conditions are expected Sunday, as highs range in the upper 60s
to lower 70s for much of the area. Drier conditions with a gradual
warming trend is expected early next week.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Shower activity continues to decrease going into this evening, but
gusty southeasterly to southerly winds will persist through the
overnight hours for most terminals. As a result, fog is not
anticipated to be an issue. MVFR ceilings will spread from south
to north just after sunset and will encompass all of Southeast TX
by 06Z/Thursday. MVFR ceilings will linger into at least the early
afternoon hours. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
begin to move in from the northwest around 12Z and gradually moves
southeastward into the region. The highest confidence for
convective activity is north of I-10, but the potential does
extend down to HOU/SGR just south of I-10 as well (these terminals
have a PROB30 to show this potential). Showers/storms begin to
taper off in the mid to late afternoon hours alongside ceilings
lifting back to VFR. Expect another round of gusty
southerly/southeasterly winds through the afternoon along with a
return of MVFR ceilings going into Thursday evening/night.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Moderate onshore winds and seas of 3-5 feet will continue through
Thursday morning. Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds
are expected to prevail through Saturday. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms will increase on Friday. Higher chances of rain is
expected this upcoming weekend as a cold front moves through the
region. The front is progged to move into the waters Saturday
night into Sunday morning, however, rain chances continue into
Sunday night. Moderate to strong offshore winds and elevated seas
will develop in the wake of the front on Sunday. Small Craft
Advisories will be needed on Sunday.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  70  82  70  85 /  20  60  10  10
Houston (IAH)  72  84  72  84 /   0  30  10  30
Galveston (GLS)  72  80  72  80 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 9 AM CDT Thursday for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cotto
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion