Skip to main content.

National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

Related quick links> 5 Day Forecast, Local Advisories, Drought Monitor, UV Forecast, Air Quality Forecast 
325
FXUS64 KHGX 141047
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
547 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A gradual warming trend continues this weekend, with highs
  reaching the mid to upper 80s by Sunday.

- Another cooldown is on the way after the next cold front, which
  will be accompanied by showers/storms late Sunday. Strong storms
  are possible along the frontal boundary.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected in the wake of the front
  through Monday: strong northerly winds (gusting to 40+ kt),
  elevated seas (9-14 ft), and potential for negative tides.

- Monitoring the potential for elevated fire weather conditions on
  Monday as very dry air overlaps with gusty northerly winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Fair weather is expected tonight with clear skies and light
south-southeasterly winds. Low temperatures overnight will range
in the lower to mid 50s inland and the upper 50s to lower 60s
over the Houston Metro and coastal locations. Southerly flow will
continue to supply moisture from the Gulf and maintain a warming
trend on Saturday, with highs already back in the 80s for many
locations. Rising humidity will lead to very low dew point
departure during the overnight to early morning hours through
Sunday morning and patchy fog may develop over portions of
Southeast TX (if winds are light enough).

Sunday will be our warmest day this weekend as moisture converges
ahead of the next system and winds become south-southwesterly,
with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s - roughly 8 to 14 degrees
above normal. It will at least be breezy as the pressure gradient
tightens (winds at around 15 to 20 mph) and a low level jet
strengthens, but be prepared for the warmth if you plan to spend
time and work outdoors. For those wanting to visit the beaches,
make sure to verify the marine and beach flag conditions given
that winds and seas will be building and strong rip currents may
develop.

We are still expecting showers and thunderstorms sometime late
Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening as a mid-upper level trough
deepens over the Plains Sunday morning and a fast moving cold
front moves across Southeast Texas late afternoon to evening. Even
with having southerly flow today and Saturday, instability and
moisture levels on Sunday morning will be rather limited with PWs
still under 1.0 inch. Forecast soundings also show the environment
to be capped possibly even into the mid afternoon hours. Thus,
its more likely to see the shower and thunderstorm activity
occuring along the frontal boundary as conditions become more
unstable, moisture converges, and lift increases just ahead of the
front. The 30-45 knot low level jet will also be present during
the afternoon hours, strongest over areas near and east of I-45,
thus, we will have to keep an eye on how much shear will be
present as these storms roll through. There is the potential for
some of these storms to become strong to severe and SPC continues
a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) over the Piney Woods region (where
the strongest low level winds will be) and a Marginal Risk (level
1 of 5) for the rest of Southeast TX.

As mentioned above, the front is to pass through Southeast TX
very quickly - going from the Brazos Valley to the coastal waters
in about 5-6 hours. In the wake of the front, cold dry air will
quickly filter in along with a 50-60 knot low level jet. Expect
strong northerly winds Sunday night into Monday morning with
speeds ranging between 20-30 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph, highest
over the coastal locations. Thus, Wind Advisories may be needed,
in particular over the coastal locations. Temperatures will dip
fast on Sunday night with lows expected to be in the upper 30s to
mid 40s for many locations by sunrise on Monday. Hello winter?

Winds relax Monday afternoon with colder conditions prevailing.
I`m not going to sugar coat that it will be a little shocking
going from highs in the mid to upper 80s on Sunday to highs in the
50s on Monday. But we will take it any day :D! The one thing we
will have to be careful with on Monday is the potential for
elevated fire weather given how dry and breezy we will be (more
details on the Fire Weather Discussion below).

Monday night, the second night of CAA, will be the coldest with
lows in the lower 30s (near freezing) over the Piney Woods, the
mid 30s to lower 40s for the rest of the inland portions, and the
mid to upper 40s along the coasts. BRRR. The fair weather
conditions will prevail for the rest of the work week.
Unfortunately, southerly flow already returns by Tuesday and will
once again bring us a warming trend through the rest of the work
week and highs will bounce back into the 80s by Thursday. Sigh.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 547 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

MVFR cloud deck has developed along/east of the I-45 corridor
early this morning and will continue to linger over multiple
terminals over the next few hours. Ceilings will lift by 15-16Z as
southeasterly winds increase. Expect sustained winds in the 10-15
kt range with gusts in the 20-25 kt range through the afternoon.
Winds remain elevated overnight (generally around 10 kt), which
will inhibit fog development. Widespread MVFR ceilings will filter
in from the west after 06Z and prevail through Sunday morning.
Expect another round of gusty southerly winds on Sunday.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Light to moderate onshore flow will continue Sunday morning. Seas
will be 2-3 feet through Saturday night, building on Sunday as
winds increase ahead of a strong cold front. There`s the potential
for strong rip currents to develop on Sunday as winds and seas
build.

The cold front will move into the coastal waters very quickly
sometime Sunday evening or early Sunday night. Associated showers
and thunderstorms will be mostly focused along the boundary as it
pushes through and some of these storms could become strong to
severe. In the wake of the front, strong northerly winds will
develop. Expect speeds to range between 30-35 knots and gusts
between 40-45 knots Sunday night into Monday. Seas will also build
to 8-14 feet. Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings will be
likely. In addition, low water levels are possible in the bays.

Winds and seas will gradually decrease Monday night into Tuesday.
Light onshore winds return Tuesday night and continue into the
end of the work week.

Cotto

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Very dry air will filter across Southeast TX in the wake of
Sunday`s front. Expect elevated fire weather risk as afternoon RH
values lower into the upper teens to lower 20s on Monday and
northerly winds range between 15-20 mph with gusts of around 25
mph. Dry conditions prevail on Tuesday, although winds will be
becoming southeasterly and much lighter. RH values will begin to
increase mid week into the end of the work week as south-
southeasterly winds prevail and low level moisture recovers.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  80  63  88  38 /   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)  80  65  86  44 /   0   0  10  40
Galveston (GLS)  74  68  77  48 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cotto
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion