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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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004
FXUS64 KHGX 261936
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
236 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low but non-zero chance of a strong to severe storm this
  afternoon and evening.

- Above normal temperatures in the 80s/mid 90s and isolated daily
  rain chances continue through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Have had a few light returns pop up on radar this afternoon. Will
need to keep an eye on the sea breeze this afternoon as the
environment remains moist, unstable, and primed for thunderstorms.

The limiting factor is the dry air in the mid-levels and that the
best forcing resides to the north of our CWA; however, the sea
breeze could kick off some convection this afternoon. While dry
air would normally inhibit storm development, we may have enough
instability, shear, and low-level moisture for storms to overcome
that mid-level environment...in which case, these storms could
produce damaging winds if dry air gets entrained and results in
significant evaporative cooling (would send the downdraft rushing
to the surface as the cool air sinks rapidly). Lapse rates appear
to be on the steeper side as well, so if storms are able to
overcome dry air completely, updrafts could penetrate the hail
growth zone.

It`s a bit tough to predict in these environments...models, even
hi-res models, do not typically get a good grasp on the full
picture and it can become hit or miss with their accuracy. This is
when it helps to pay attention to satellite trends, nearby
environments and use some good old fashioned meteorology.

What I know for certain is that we have all the ingredients in
place, and CAMs have not been the greatest at picking up storms
that have generated damaging hail and wind in the last week. The
sea breeze tends to be our source of lift this time of year. 18Z
soundings from CRP and from LCH (which our area sits in between
those two sites) are revealing two different environments. The
environment in Corpus Christi is still capped, while Lake Charles
has a similar environment to what model soundings are showing for
IAH and HOU. What this tells me is that areas closer to Matagorda
Bay are likely more capped (similar to Corpus Christi) and the
environment near Galveston Bay is more suitable for convection.
The sea breeze could certainly trigger storms as it moves inland,
but again--the question becomes would dry air keep clouds from
having enough vertical growth for storm development.

Right now satellite imagery shows generally stratus or cumulus
(with minimal vertical growth). We are just starting to tap into
the daytime heating, so will be keeping an eye on satellite to see
if any of these cumulus clouds show further development with the
sea breeze this afternoon.

I know I droned on about the what ifs, especially when we aren`t
even outlooked for severe weather (and certainly not in as
favorable of an environment as the Plains), but I do think it is
important to note that models can be a bit misleading in
transition seasons, and this is when looking at observations,
satellite imagery, and the office window becomes important...fact
of the matter is we could have storms this afternoon, but there
are some limiting factors that could prevent that from
happening...in this case, mid-level dry air.

Moving on to this coming week, a shortwave trough is still
expected to lift NE across the Great Plains. As it does, it is
expected to eject a cold front towards SE Texas. At this time it
appears the front is expected to slow/stall as it approaches the
Brazos Valley/Piney Woods areas and my result in isolated showers
and storms for these areas. A subtropical mid-level high will
build in from the south during the day Tuesday. Flow will be
predominantly zonal, but may have a few shortwaves move through
within the overall flow, which may result in isolated showers and
thunderstorms.

As we get closer to next weekend, another mid-level shortwave is
projected to move across the state and send another cold front
towards our area. This one appears to be a bit stronger, so may
actually see more widespread showers and storms with breezy and
cool conditions to follow. Will keep an eye on this as we get
closer in time, but at the very least that is what is on the
horizon.

Bailey

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Widespread MVFR conditions will prevail through at least the late
morning hours. Low-level moisture is higher today than the
previous days, which gives a higher potential for MVFR ceilings to
linger later in the day for terminals south of I-10. This
increased moisture may also lead to spotty rain showers throughout
the day and potentially an isolated storm or two in the afternoon.
This potential is too low to mention it in any of the TAFs so far.
Expect southeasterly winds around 10-15 kt with occasional gusts
around 20-25 kt through the afternoon. Widespread MVFR/IFR
ceilings expected again this evening into Monday morning. Winds
remain elevated overnight, so not anticipating much if any areas
of reduced visibilities due to fog. Cloud ceilings are expected
to be the main impact for this forecast period.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue through the
next several days. Elevated water levels around 2.5 to 3.0 feet
above MLLW are still expected at each high tide cycle through
early next week. A slight increase in winds and seas are expected
beginning around Tuesday next week. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day with higher rain chances
Wednesday though the end of the next work week. A modest cold
front could bring moderate to strong offshore winds Friday night
into next weekend.


03/Bailey

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  90  73  91  73 /  20   0  20  10
Houston (IAH)  90  74  90  74 /  10   0  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  83  75  84  75 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Bailey/03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion