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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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668
FXUS64 KHGX 091221
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
621 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm, and more humid weather is expected through the week.

- A chance showers and thunderstorms for parts of the area Tuesday
  afternoon into Wednesday as a weak disturbance moves through.

- Areas of fog and sea fog during the nighttime and morning hours
  on a daily basis for much of the week could cause
  navigation/commuting hazards.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1045 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Fog is anticipated to develop nightly and into the mid-morning
hours each day through mid-week. Fog will become dense at times,
initially beginning along the coast and expanding inland through
the overnight hours. Some locations along the coast may see fog
stick around into the afternoon. While fog potential is highest
through mid-week, there will be a chance of fog through Friday
night. Density/coverage of fog will heavily depend on whether
winds are slightly higher than what is forecast and if SST
increase in response to the warmer temperatures. Both of these
scenarios could limit fog potential.

Tuesday`s disturbance continues to look lackluster. PWAT values
still sit in the 90th percentile, but with instability essentially
non-existent, may see more isolated activity and primarily
showers. Timing looks more Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Next shot of showers may be next weekend as another upper-level
disturbance passes through. With it being later in the forecast,
won`t get too hung up on details. We will see if models maintain
the strength of this disturbance as we get closer in time.

In the meantime, warm weather will prevail with highs in the upper
70s to low 80s and nighttime lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Bailey

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 615 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Areas of dense fog are situated generally along and south of a
Brenham-Cleveland line - with a donut hole over IAH and central
Houston. LIFR/IFR conditions elsewhere will improve heading into
9-11am timeframe...and eventually back into VFR territory for the
remainder of the day. Look for deteriorating conditions overnight
into Tue morning for about the same locations as ceilings/visibilities
fall back down. Not entirely confident, on the specifics due to
some guidance indicating slightly stronger wind speeds which would
point to more stratus. But there`s an equal amount suggesting
visibilities might look about the same as this morning. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1045 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Sea fog will continue to be possible nightly through at least
mid-week, and potentially through Friday night. There are some
uncertainties in the forecast that could limit fog development: a
more southwesterly wind tonight may limit development, and warming
SSTs through the week could also limit development - but the main
takeaway will be to be prepared for several days of sea fog
development. Highest confidence in the fog develop with be during
the late evening (8-10pm) through mid-morning (8-10am) periods,
but patchy fog could linger in the southern bays/near shore waters
into the afternoons.

Otherwise, expect light onshore winds and low seas through this
week. A weak disturbance moving through Tuesday night may trigger
some isolated showers into Wednesday morning, but overall rain
chances are low this week. A potentially stronger system, with a
cold front, may pass through next weekend ending the sea fog
threat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  82  60  79  60 /   0   0  10  30
Houston (IAH)  80  62  79  62 /   0   0  10  20
Galveston (GLS)  71  60  71  60 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ178-179-
     198>200-210>214-226-227-235>237-300-313.

GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Bailey

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion