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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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151
FXUS64 KHGX 151138
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
538 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After yesterday`s front, look for a dry chilly day today, with a
  short warmup Friday...until another front moves through late in
  the afternoon. These fronts will keep temperatures seasonably
  cool into the weekend, but have little rain potential.

- The trend of a quick succession of disturbed weather persists
  next week, including another cold front and a coastal trough
  that will bring our next decent chances of rain.

- Negative tide levels are anticipated in the bays this week, most
  significant late tonight through Thursday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1143 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

One front through, but more to go! This evening is a bit blustery
around the area, with winds of 10-15 mph along with gusts into
the teens and lower 20s...as high as 30 mph down on the island.
These winds should gradually taper down overnight, but things
still look a bit gusty by morning particularly closer to the
coast, with winds of 5-10 mph but paired with lingering gusts into
the teens. The next few hours also look quite chilly, with a
light freeze north of Huntsville.

We`ll see winds continue to weaken through the day as weak high
pressure slides across the region from Central Texas towards the
North Central Gulf Coast. This sets us up for a fully sunny day,
but still fairly chilly and quite dry on Thursday. Like yesterday,
fuels conditions are still near normal moisture, even still above
normal in localized spots. But, with underlying drought
conditions, drier fuels will be able to emerge more rapidly than
typical, especially in grassy areas - despite the weakening winds,
the very low RH forecast would probably mean that it`s another
day to avoid work with things that can throw sparks and open
flame, unless you`re doing a professional prescribed burn that is
looking for these specific conditions to achieve the desired
benefit.

By Thursday evening, the high will have moved off well to our
east, returning onshore flow for much of the day Friday. This will
help return a modest amount of humidity to the area, though dry
spots out west could still see RH briefly dip below 30 percent, so
we`re not getting real humid here. But, with the wind shift
shutting off the cold advection machine, another mostly sunny day
should help temps rise back up into the 60s to lower 70s. Warm
weather lovers, don`t get too attached! This bit of slightly above
average temps will be cut off when our next front comes through
late Friday afternoon. This puts us on track for a day Saturday
that looks very much like Thursday will. Mostly sunny but chilly
with some gusty north winds. Onshore flow looks to be slower to
come back, more by Sunday evening, so the weekend as a whole looks
like it will be a seasonably cool one - chillier than the average,
but not by a significant amount, so pretty recognizable as "winter
in Southeast Texas". Monday puts us on the upswing of this
pendulum, with temperatures and humidity a bit higher, but
ultimately will be cut short again by a front Monday night.

Now...here`s where we start to see things get a little more mixed
up, but one thing that will stay is a progressive pattern of
disturbances, so don`t expect the weather to be too stable.
Indeed, that will help hold down confidence in the specifics, but
the guidance seems to be settling in on a broad scenario that we
can sketch out for now and flesh out in the coming days.

Without a ton of time for moisture return again, the frontal
passage does not look to carry a lot of rain chances on it. But,
it should be more significant than this week`s fronts. I have
slight chances in the area, centered more towards the coast,
through Monday night and into Tuesday. But where things look more
promising for rain is with the development of a coastal
trough/warm front on the frontal zone left behind. As that drifts
northward, we`ll get more significant onshore flow and moisture
return. The surface trough will also provide a focus for rainfall
development, so PoPs continue to go up through the day next
Wednesday into Wednesday night, before gradually tailing off
Thursday. Where the best potential for rain will be is going to
depend very much on how far inland this coastal trough can lift,
and getting too specific on that now is far too speculative. But,
for now, we have PoPs up to 30 percent even well inland.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 529 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Winds will be light out
of the north, becoming variable through the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1143 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Strong northwesterly to northerly winds and rougher seas are
occurring across the waters tonight in the wake of a cold front
and a small craft advisory will persist through the night and into
Thursday morning. Deeper into the day, conditions will gradually
improve, with light and more variable winds by evening. Mariners
should anticipate negative tide levels through the week,
especially around low tide cycles in the upper portions of the
bays. Onshore winds return Thursday evening, but only briefly
before the next cold front arrives Friday night. Early next week
will bring continued disturbed weather, along with our next decent
chances for rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  59  42  71  39 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  59  44  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  58  52  68  51 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     GMZ330-335.

     Low Water Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ335.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...Luchs

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion