Skip to main content.

National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

Related quick links> 5 Day Forecast, Local Advisories, Drought Monitor, UV Forecast, Air Quality Forecast 
517
FXUS64 KHGX 160525
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1125 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions with a gradual warming trend are expected through
  much of the work-week.

- Near-record temperatures possible by mid-week with highs in the
  mid to upper 80s.

- Next best chance for rain and storms arrives late Friday into
  Saturday with the next cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1123 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Stratus clouds and fog are the primary weather concerns in the
near term. Stubborn clouds associated with a departing upper-
trough continue to move southward across our northwestern
counties. As the night progresses, expect these clouds to spread
south- southwest into the I-45 corridor through early morning.
Areas west of I-45 and south of I-10 could potentially see patchy
to areas of fog over the next few hours due to radiational
cooling. Fog will become dense at times.

Fog and clouds should dissipate and lift by mid Monday morning.
Upper-level ridge prevails over the region, resulting in warm and
dry conditions with highs generally in the 70s. Even warmer
conditions are expected on Tuesday; though it will be gusty at
times. A tightening pressure gradient associated to a mid-to upper-
level trough across West Texas will keep breezy southwesterly winds.

Ridging aloft will flatten and break down after Tuesday, as a
surface low and associated frontal boundary develop across the
Plains. Southeast TX will be positioned in the warm front,
experiencing persistent southerly flow. Ensemble guidance continues
to suggest above-normal temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday,
based on NAEFS and ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index. However, we`ll
continue to monitor cloud coverage during this period, as it will
also be a key factor in daytime heating. An uptick in low to mid-
level moisture ahead of the main front will pull more moisture and
clouds into the region. As of now, will continue with a blend of NBM
and the 75th percentile of the NBM to forecast high temperatures in
the mid to upper 80s, mainly by Thursday. The aforementioned frontal
boundary will finally enter SE TX sometime between late Friday and
Saturday. Rain and storm chances possible ahead of and along the
boundary.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

With stratus deck to the east still eroding, have tapped the
brakes on emergence of MVFR at the I-45 terminals, but still bring
us there in the end. First hints of fog beginning to emerge at
CXO, so keep the IFR TEMPOs in place at the three problem sites
(along with SGR and LBX). Still can expect a return to VFR in the
morning, with SE winds around/just above 5 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1123 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Sight offshore winds and low seas will prevail tonight through
Monday, before onshore winds resume after midday. Moderate onshore
winds will strengthen on Tuesday into Wednesday with gusts reaching
up to 20 knots at times. Dry conditions continue throughout the week
with light to occasionally moderate onshore flow. The next best rain
chances arrive Friday into the weekend ahead and a long of the next
FROPA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  47  74  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  54  73  56  78 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  57  65  59  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion