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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

231
FXUS64 KHGX 010007
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
707 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will bring a chance for a few showers and
  thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening through very early
  Sunday.

- Next week`s outlook features seasonably hot and humid conditions
  with isolated afternoon showers and storms possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Summer persists in Southeast Texas as hot and humid conditions
continue thanks to high pressure and abundant sunshine.
Temperatures this afternoon have rising into the mid 90s for much
of the region with heat indices in the 100-105 degree range.
Another warm and muggy night is expected tonight, but then on
Saturday I have something to discuss that isn`t just high pressure
and heat. An upper-level disturbance moving through the Midwest
will push a weak "cold" front into Southeast Texas tomorrow into
tomorrow night. Because the front is so weak, exact FROPA timing
is still uncertain - but it will likely be in the late afternoon
into the evening hours from north to south. Isolated showers will
begin to pop up across the Piney Woods region as early as the
morning hours as the front approaches from the north. By the
afternoon and into the evening hours, isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will begin to pop-up down along the I-10
corridor and the coast. Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but
gusty winds and a localized downpour will always be possible with
any thunderstorms that develop.

High temperatures on Saturday will likely be limited by increasing
cloud coverage and any showers or thunderstorms that develop. But,
we will likely still see temperatures rising into the mid to upper
90s across the region with heat indices in the triple digits.
Have opted out of issuing any Heat Advisories for tomorrow due to
the uncertainty of the FROPA timing - but, there is a possibility
that areas along and south of I-10 will approach Heat Advisory
thresholds if the FROPA is later than expected.

This "cold" front will really not bring in any cooler weather - in
fact temperatures may even be a degree to two hotter on Sunday
than tomorrow. This is because while cooler air won`t be filtering
in, drier air will be allowing for warmer ambient temperatures.
Hot weather will continue through the remainder of the week with
Monday likely being the hottest day of the week with high
temperatures nearing 100 degrees.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 657 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

A weak cold front will attempt to move through the terminals Saturday
afternoon, bringing rain and storm chances for most terminals. A
few -SHRA are possible near KCLL and KUTS around 11Z- 13Z, with
the best chances (20 - 35%) in the afternoon. Confidence in
SHRA/TSRA for terminals from IAH coastward is low; therefore, have
only included PROB30 from mid afternoon through early evening for
this forecast package. Light to occasionally moderate WSW winds
will prevail Saturday. Overall, expect SCT to BKN mid to high
clouds, with FEW/SCT low clouds possible early Saturday. Outside
of any TSRA, VFR conditions can be expected through the period.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

South to southwesterly winds around 10-15kt will persist through
Saturday morning with low seas. An approaching front will lead to
a strengthening of the winds Saturday afternoon into Saturday
night to around 15-20kt, so small craft will likely need to
exercise caution. Seas will increase to around 2-4ft Saturday
night into Sunday morning following the increasing winds. An
isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible Saturday evening
into Saturday night as the front approaches the coastal waters,
but chances are pretty low (below 20%). A more west-southwesterly
wind will be possible on Sunday following the front.

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist through
next week with low seas.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  97  75  99 /   0  40  10   0
Houston (IAH)  79  99  80 100 /   0  20  20  10
Galveston (GLS)  83  94  82  93 /   0  10  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Fowler

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion