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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

296
FXUS64 KHGX 071107
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
607 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot conditions will continue through the forecast period.
  Daytime highs will be in the 90s with heat indices in the
  triple digits.

- Isolated-scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening.
  Stronger cells will be capable of producing some 25-45 mph wind
  gusts.

- A deeper surge of Gulf moisture should arrive late in the week
  and weekend. Warm, muggy conditions persist with daily chances
  of rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Mid level trof/weakness stretching from the OH/TN/MS Valleys into
the eastern half of TX will linger for the next few days. Broadly
speaking for today, 1.8-2.1" PW air looks to be situated across a
decent part of the region (lower in the Brazos Valley). We should
see some iso-sct shra/tstm activity get started off the coast toward
morning and eventually transition inland in the late morning and
early afternoon in association with the seabreeze and daytime
heating. Let`s keep an eye on the area up toward the Piney Woods
late in the day (and areas east of I-45 and north of I-10). This
will be where the highest PW air should be situated locally...and
things could become fairly unstable at peak heating late in the
afternoon/evening. Some of the hires data suggests convection
popping in the 4-7pm timeframe and sagging southward into the
early-mid evening. Fcst soundings show somewhat of an inverted-v
profile...suggesting the potential for some localized strong wind
gusts in the more intense localized cells. Considerable
uncertainty exists, but it`s worth the mention. Will add some
POPs thru late evening as far south as the metro area for any late
outflow/seabreeze interactions.

Pattern doesn`t look all that much different Wed & Thurs.
Troffiness/weakness isn`t as well defined, but heights don`t really
change that much as we`ll still be situated between stronger ridging
to our east and to our west. Maybe a touch less moisture to work
with, but still enough for the mention of some lower end
diurnally/seabreeze driven activity.

Otherwise, temperatures will be running a few degrees above seasonal
norms with peak heat index values 102-108F for most of us.

Heading into late week, weekend, and early next week - the ridge to
our west strengthens as it tracks across the Rockies and into ncntl
Plains. The ridging currently to our east makes its way wwd across
the northern Gulf Coast so we`ll see some height rises as well. A
surge of deeper Gulf moisture (2.1-2.4") is forecast to push into
the area this weekend. In terms of precip, we will be looking for
who wins in terms of increased subsidence versus plentiful moisture.
Hoping the rain chances win out, otherwise higher heat indices will
be in the works. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Similar to the last few mornings, we are starting to see some
MVFR cigs/vis develop. This shouldn`t last too long with VFR
prevailing by 13-14Z. Southerly winds will increase to around 8-10
knots this afternoon then become light and variable during the
evening hours. Have introduced a PROB30 for TSRA across all sites
by mid day through early this evening as isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop. Activity should
wane by 00Z. Patchy fog will be likely once again Wednesday
morning as winds become light.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

A prevailing southerly flow is anticipated this week. Seas are
running 1-3ft, but will probably slightly increase into the 3-4ft
range later in the week as the pressure gradient tightens and
corresponding onshore flow increases. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  96  77  97  77 /  10  20  10  10
Houston (IAH)  97  79  97  78 /  20  30  20  10
Galveston (GLS)  91  83  92  84 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Castillo
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion