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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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448
FXUS64 KHGX 250437
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1137 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly cooler with mostly cloudy skies on Sunday with highs in
  the low 80s.

- Surface trough and increasing Gulf moisture will bring low-end
  chances for showers/storms throughout the week.

- Moderate onshore winds and building seas early in the week,
  likely triggering Caution or Advisory conditions for mariners
  through at least Tuesday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Tranquil conditions will prevail overnight with light variable
winds and partly cloudy skies. Lows tonight will be a few degrees
warmer, ranging in the mid 50s over the Piney Woods region, the
upper 50s to lower 60s for the rest of the inland portions, and
the upper 60s to lower 70s along the coast. We could see a few
areas with patchy fog developing during the early morning hours,
but should burn off fairly quickly around sunrise.

An upper to mid level ridge will remain anchored over Southeast
and East Texas, keeping nil rain chances through at least Sunday
evening. Temperatures will lower again by Sunday, with highs back
in the lower 80s range areawide. It will be a very lovely Sunday
with winds at around 10 mph with a few gusts of around 20 mph
along with lower dewpoints (40s and 50s) as a patch of dry air
pushes in from Louisiana in the afternoon and evening. The patch
of drier and slightly cooler air and light easterly winds, will
grant us slightly cooler overnight temperatures, with lows ranging
in the low to mid 50s over the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley
region, the upper 50s to lower 60s for the rest of the inland
portions, and the upper 60s along the coast.

Unfortunately, that dry airmass wont last too long over us, and
low level moisture from the Gulf will work its way back into our
coastal location by Monday morning. Meanwhile, an upper level
trough tracks east across the Southern Plains, shifting the mid to
upper level ridge over Louisiana. The proximity of ridge,
however, will continue to limit rain development for much of the
local area. The best location for showers to occur will be over
the Matagorda Bay region and adjacent Gulf waters.

The chance for rain will expand a little further north on Tuesday
as the upper level trough moves into the Central Plains, although
showers will continue to be focused over the Matagorda Bay
region. Rain chances will continue on Wednesday, as the mid level
ridge shifts further east, over Southeast CONUS, and PWATs rise to
1.3 to 1.7 inches over much of the region. Moisture levels could
be lower over the Piney Woods region, thus, highest chance for
showers and thunderstorms are currently over areas west of I-45.

For the rest of the work week, a few weak disturbances will move
overhead and cloud lead to isolated rain chances. Global models
are still hinting at a possible cold front by the end of the month
or the start of November.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Amendment) Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Isolated patchy fog could develop early Sunday morning, bringing
brief FL reductions during the pre-dawn hours, mainly to areas
north of KIAH. KCXO is most at risk for patchy morning fog, and
could see MVFR conditions as a result. Breeze E/SE winds develop
once again mid Sunday morning with any/all fog clearing. VFR
conditions dominate throughout the remainder of the TAF period,
with winds becoming light once again Sunday evening.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Light to moderate E to ESE flow will continue through early next
week. Seas will continue to build to 4-6 feet on Sunday, possibly
building to 6-7 feet offshore on Monday. Caution Flags will remain
in effect through Monday night. Small Craft Advisory may be
needed if the offshore seas reach 7 feet and/or winds become
stronger than 20 kts. Winds relax on Tuesday although may hover
around 15 kts at times. Seas will gradually subside Tuesday into
Wednesday. We could see winds strengthen back to moderate during
the second half of the week, keeping seas at 3-5 feet. Additional
Caution Flags may be warranted.

Rain chances will return early next week as the ridge shifts east
while surface moisture converges over the Western Gulf waters.
Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day
for much of the work week. Locally higher winds and seas could
occur in and near strong storms.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  59  82  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  62  82  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  70  76  69  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late Monday night
     for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cotto
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion