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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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287
FXUS64 KHGX 161812
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
112 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and windy this afternoon in the wake of the morning cold
  front. Secure outdoor items that could be lifted (Halloween
  yard decor, etc).

- Hazardous marine conditions expected. Gale Warning is in effect
  today into Saturday for strong north winds and building seas.

- Warmer temperatures return next week, but just seasonable in
  nature.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

With the cold front off the coast, northerly winds of 15-30 mph have
developed over the region, with gusts reaching 25-42 mph. The
strongest of these winds are expected/occuring west of I-45 and
along islands. A wind advisory remains in effect, with the current
configuration lasting through 1 AM Saturday as inland winds ease.
Along the islands and waters, these strong winds will persist
overnight, with Gale conditions most likely through early
Saturday. With that, the Wind Advisory for the islands will remain
in effect until 1 PM Saturday, matching the Gale Warning for all
waters.

Morning lows for Saturday will be in the upper 40s/mid 50s and upper
50s/lower 60s right along the coast. Daytime highs will top out in
the upper 60s/lower 70s Saturday. The coldest temperatures arrive
Sunday morning, reaching the lower 40s/lower 50s inland and upper
50s/lower 60s along the immediate coast. High pressure behind the
front tracks eastward Sunday into next week. Ridging builds overtop
the area while a coastal trough develops over the northwestern
Gulf early next week. Isolated showers will be possible, though
more so confined to coastal/Gulf zones, as easterly flow will
limit moisture recovery for inland areas. Gradually warming is
expected throughout the work week with highs for Thursday reaching
the 80s/lower 90s.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

MVFR cigs will lift/clear from north to south over the next few
hours, ushering in VFR conditions later today. N winds of 15-20
kts with gusts of 25-36 kts continue this afternoon. Winds
generally decrease overnight for sites outside the immediate
coast/barrier islands, as Gale conditions are expected over the
waters. Winds and gusts lower region-wide during the daytime on
Saturday.

JMG/03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Northerly winds of 20-30 knots are expected this afternoon, rising
to Gale/near Gale force overnight with gusts up to 45 knots and seas
of 7-13 feet. A Gale Warning is in effect until 1 PM Saturday. Winds
and seas decrease Saturday afternoon, though Small Craft
conditions may linger through early Sunday morning. Winds veer to
the east next week as high pressure shifts east of the area. Some
isolated showers/storms will be possible over the waters early in
the work week as a coastal trough sets up offshore.

03

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Northerly winds of 15-30 mph with higher gusts of 25-42 mph
continue this afternoon behind the cold front. The strongest winds
should be west of I-45 and along the coast. Humidity will drop to
25-40%, short of reaching Red Flag Warning levels. Cannot
completely rule out locally drier spots, as it`s contingent on
cloud cover, strength of the cold air advection and afternoon
heating. While areas in SE Texas are not expected to hit Red Flag
conditions, fire weather conditions will be elevated this
afternoon. Texas A&M Forest Service maintains high to very high
fire danger for SE Texas today. Caution is strongly advised when
burning outdoors.

Northerly winds decrease overnight into Saturday, dropping below 15
mph at most locations by the afternoon as RH drops to 30-40%. Texas
A&M Forest Service maintains high to very high fire danger on
Saturday as well.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  48  69  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  52  71  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  60  73  61  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ176-177-195>199-
     210>214-226-227-235>238-313-335>338.

     Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ436>439.

GM...Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-
     375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion