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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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FXUS64 KHGX 101116
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
516 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm, and more humid weather is expected through the week.

- Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday evening into Wednesday
  afternoon as an upper level disturbance moves through.

- Potential for some fog/sea fog during the nighttime and morning
  hours through much of the week. However, higher than normal
  uncertainty in the fog forecast (see discussion below).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1103 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

The low coming off of the Baja Peninsula will become less-
amplified and evolve into a trough as it progresses east towards
Texas. This continues to hint at less of a convective scenario
and more of an isolated to potentially scattered showers event
Tuesday evening into Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure
stationed to the east will continue pulling moisture inland,
resulting in humid and warmer conditions through much of the week.

The other event to note is the fog that has the potential to cause
impacts along the coast and inland through the rest of the week.
While the current setup favors the development of fog during the
overnight to early morning hours, strong winds in the boundary
layer do make the forecast a bit trickier (particularly over
the bays and Gulf Waters). A southerly jet (15-20 kts) is
anticipated tonight into Tuesday morning...while southerly flow is
generally more conducive to fog development, the strength of the
winds could inhibit more dense fog. Have maintained fog in the
forecast with the potential for dense fog in some locations.
As winds decrease going further into the week, the threat of fog
will increase in response. The exception being along the coast,
where SST may warm enough in response to the warmer airmass, which
would limit dense fog development.

Weekend rain chances are still being monitored as models continue
to depict another subtropical trough/low over NW Mexico closer to
the end of the workweek. This trough is progged to move into Texas
over the course for the weekend and should maintain enough
strength to warrant a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms
to the area. Will continue to keep an eye on it as we get closer
to the weekend.

Daytime temperatures through the week will be in the mid 70s to
low 80s inland and in the 60s along the coast. Nighttime
temperatures will be in the 50s to low 60s. With this weekend`s
system, may see cooler nighttime temperatures (in the 40s to low
50s). With that being near the end of the forecast period, not
going to get too hung up on those numbers just yet.

Bailey

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 515 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Winds have stayed up just enough to limit fog formation overnight,
but we do have a wide mix of IFR to VFR conditions across the
area. Heading into mid-late morning we`ll see enough mixing of
8-15kt southerly winds to lift ceilings back into VFR territory
everywhere. There will be some increasing mid-upper Pacific
cloudiness moving through. We may also see some intermittent
returns showing up on radar, but considering the dry sub-cloud
layer, it should be mostly virga. Tonight, we`ll see an upper
disturbance (currently seen on water vapor imagery over NW Mexico)
move into the area. Wouldn`t doubt if we see some scattered
pockets of -ra or sprinkles develop and have included some
PROB30s/VCSH`s in this TAF package late in the period.  47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1103 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

The primary concern this week will be the prospect of sea fog and
the higher than normal uncertainty in the fog forecast. Generally
light to moderate onshore flow will push high moisture levels
over chilly waters through the end of the week. This is normally a
very favorable setup for sea fog, especially at night and during
the morning hours. However, winds just above the surface have been
on the strong side (roughly 20 knots a few hundred feet above the
ground). Despite not being at the surface, these winds can lessen
the severity and areal extent of fog. Last night, those winds
aloft were from the southwest, a particularly unfavorable
direction for sea fog. Tonight, those winds aloft will be more
from the south, which is a more direction favorable relatively
speaking (southeast being the most preferred). So the direction
of the wind is expected to become more favorable, while wind
speeds aloft remain a little too strong. That being said, fog
could be more widespread if these winds manage to be a few knots
lower than forecast.

Model guidance is suggesting lighter winds aloft as we approach
the middle to later portion of the week, suggesting the sea fog
risk could rise. However, this will also depend on how much water
temperatures respond to the warm, sunny weather in the coming
days. That being said, our forecast continues to show a daily risk
of sea fog through the end of the week, with the best chance of
fog occurring during the overnight and morning hours.

A system by the end of the week could bring a chance of showers
and thunderstorms, along with increasing winds and seas.
Confidence in the forecast that far out is low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  59  76  56 /  10  30  20   0
Houston (IAH)  78  61  79  60 /  10  30  30   0
Galveston (GLS)  68  59  69  58 /  10  30  30   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Bailey

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion