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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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570
FXUS64 KHGX 311911
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
111 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hard Freeze likely tonight away from the coast and outside
  Houston`s urban heat island.


- A gradual warm up early next week along with rain chances
  returning to the forecast Tuesday and Tuesday night ahead of the
  next cold front.

- Colder conditions behind the front Wednesday-Thursday. But no
  hard freeze expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1222 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Who else loves a sunny cold day? If you`re like me, then you are
enjoying the temperatures in the 40s with bright sunshine. The
cold weather is to be expected with a 1043 mb high centered over
Oklahoma. The high will push southeast tonight, with winds at the
surface becoming lighter. These conditions coupled with the clear
skies ahead will set us up for a cold night. However, I did notice
that model guidance is generally coming in somewhat less cold.
This may have to do with the mid/upper clouds that are evident
over the central and northern plains. This cloud deck is likely to
push southward, and we could have some clouds try to make it into
the CWA late tonight, which would make overnight cooling less
efficient. I gave some weight to this scenario by mixing some of
the new model data into the forecast we already had. But even with
that upward nudge in forecast temps, most areas outside of
Houston`s urban heat island and away from the coast are expected
to have a hard freeze tonight. So protect those sensitive plants
and bring the pets inside!

The future is bright for those who dislike the cold. The polar jet
will push to the north and east while modest ridging takes hold on
Sunday into Monday. Sunday will still be colder than normal, but
milder, with highs generally in the 50s. I think we`ll manage one
more cold morning on Monday, with many areas down in the 30s. But
by Monday afternoon, most locations are expected to be well into
the 60s, possibly around 70. We`ll also see the return of onshore
flow, pushing dew points upwards. Perhaps less dress skin woes for
southeast Texans as moisture levels increase. Onshore flow will
set us up for much warmer overnight lows, with Tuesday morning
temps only falling into the 50s.

Mid/upper troughing in the east is expected to back westward on
Tuesday, with a lobe in the trough sinking southward over the
central and southern plains. This pattern will manifest a surface
low and an associated cold front, the latter of which pushes
through our region late Tuesday into very early Wednesday morning.
Rain shower activity is expected along and ahead of the front.
Couldn`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm. Warm conditions (70s
temps) are expected ahead of the front, with colder air filtering
southward in its wake. But this air mass is not looking nearly as
cold as recent air masses. For starters, the jet breaks into a
more split flow regime, limiting the arctic connection in the
upper levels. In addition, the trajectory of the coldest air will
be pointed more towards E CONUS. So no hard freezes behind this
front. But northern areas could have a light freeze Wednesday and
Thursday night. Wednesday-Thursday afternoon temps are expected to
be in the 50s to low 60s.

By week`s end, we could find ourselves in a warmer pattern.
Perhaps widespread highs back in the 70s. In SE Texas, the cold
never lasts forever. So for those of us who like the cold, enjoy
it while it lasts!

Self


&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 420 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Breezy northerly winds should start to fill in from north to south
this morning. Winds of around 10-15 knots with gusts of 20-25
knots can be anticipated inland, reaching around 20 knots with
gusts of 30 near the coast at KGLS. Winds should ease down as the
day progresses, becoming light and variable tonight. Mostly clear
skies and VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1222 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Recent hazardous winds and seas should improve this evening into
tonight. Winds will veer and become much lighter on Sunday and
Monday. Despite improving winds/seas, we expect water levels to
remain low on Sunday and Monday. The current Low Water Advisory
is likely to be extended through Monday, with a non-zero chance of
being extended into Tuesday. Onshore flow increases on Tuesday.
With higher dew points pushing northward over cold waters, we
cannot rule out patchy marine fog Monday night through Tuesday
night. But conditions overall are just marinally favorable, and
fog has not been included in the marine forecast at this time. A
front pushes offshore Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Showers
and isolated thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the
front. Gusty north winds are expected in the front`s wake.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  24  54  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  24  53  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  34  51  46  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Sunday for
     TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>237-300.

GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ350-355-
     370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...03
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion