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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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099
FXUS64 KHGX 122324
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
624 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler, drier conditions persist over the next couple of days
  with tonight into Friday morning being our coolest night in over
  two weeks.

- A gradual warming trend is expected Friday into the weekend,
  followed by another cooldown after the arrival of a strong cold
  front with accompanying showers/storms late Sunday.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected in the wake of the front
  through Monday: strong northerly winds (gusting to 40+ kt),
  elevated seas (8-12 ft), and potential for negative tides.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Be honest with me here...on a scale of 1-10, how happy were y`all
when you stepped out the door this morning?! Instead of the
mugginess that we`ve felt over the past week or so, it felt
fantastic! It was a 15/10 for me! The best part is that this won`t
be a one cool night and we`re back to the pain...we have multiple
cool nights in store. A warming trend through the weekend
temporarily puts us back into muggy territory, but another cold
front on Sunday puts a stop to that. Maybe this will temper the
influx of all of these June bugs (March bugs?)! There was a 20-25
degree difference between temperatures this morning versus Wednesday
morning, which is outstanding! With surface high pressure overhead
and drier air prevailing, high temperatures this afternoon will top
out in the low to mid 60s. The last time we had a high temperature
below 70F was February 23rd, so just over two weeks ago. I know
it`s been in the 80s quite a bit recently, so just reminding y`all
that it`s still astronomical winter.

Surface high pressure remains overhead tonight leading to that
perfect setup for max radiational cooling (light winds + clear
skies). As a result, low temperatures tonight will be...dare I say
cold?! They`ll range from the upper 30s to low 40s up north and the
mid 40s to the 50s around the Houston metro area and the coast. That
surface high slides eastward by Friday leading to a gradual warming
trend that prevails into the weekend. So, we`ll March our way back
into the 70s on Friday, right around the 80F mark on Saturday, and
solidly in the mid to upper 80s on Sunday. Winds will gradually
increase going into Saturday night as a SW-NE oriented LLJ
strengthens (stretches from TX to the Upper Midwest). This is due to
the pressure gradient tightening as surface low pressure begins to
develop in the Central Plains in response to an upper level trough
sweeping through the central CONUS.

As the surface low drifts eastward on Sunday, it will drag a cold
front through southeast TX in the late afternoon/evening hours. This
brings us to the interest part of the forecast. Will we see any rain
with this front? Find out next time on Dragon B...oh wait. I mean
the answer is...it depends. While onshore flow will return Friday
night, we don`t see much of a moisture increase until the front
approaches. There is some model variability on exactly how much
moisture will be in place ahead of and along the front, but the
general consensus is for greater moisture availability east of I-45.
So, that`s where PoPs are the highest...and even then it`s only
around 30%. It is worth noting that SPC has a 15% probability of
severe weather outline for us on Sunday for portions of the Piney
Woods. Lift, instability, and shear will certainly be in place.
Moisture is the big question mark, and that answer will become more
clear once we get in range of high-res guidance. For now, just know
that some of these potential storms could contain gusty winds.

There is quite LLJ in the wake of the front (50-60 kt) overnight
into Monday morning, which will create quite the hazardous marine
conditions (see Marine discussion) and likely a Wind Advisory for
coastal areas during this timeframe. Temperatures behind the next
front look even cooler than our most recent front, so I`ll let y`all
interpolate that one how y`all see fit. A rather robust ridge begins
to build into the southwestern CONUS around midweek (see CPC`s
temperature outlook for all the red). We`ll go on a warming trend
next week as well, but we won`t end up as warm as it`ll be out to
our west. Check out the forecast for some places in Arizona next
week!

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 551 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR throughout the period. N-NE winds this evening at 5-10 KTS,
becoming light and VRB overnight through Fri morning. For the rest
of Friday, winds will be S at 5-10 KTS.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Moderate northerly winds and elevated seas will continue into the
afternoon hours, but they are on a gradual downward trend.
Overnight, light winds will transition from northeasterly to
southeasterly. Light onshore flow will prevail going into the
weekend. Winds increase Saturday night into Sunday in advance of an
approaching cold front and may prompt the issuance of caution flags.

A cold front pushes offshore late Sunday with showers/storms along
the boundary. Expect strong northerly winds (30-35+ kt with gusts
over 40 kt) and elevated seas (8-12 ft) to prevail in the wake of
this front through Monday. A Gale Watch/Warning will likely be
needed Sunday night into Monday. Those heading to the beaches or out
on the waters for Spring Break should be advised of this period of
hazardous marine conditions late Sunday into Monday. Typically
inflatables are discouraged by beach patrol with offshore winds.
Additionally, there will be potential for abnormally low water
levels in the wake of this front early next week. Winds and seas
subside going into Monday night with onshore flow returning by
Tuesday.

Batiste

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

With winds continuing to decrease this afternoon, this will be
a helpful factor in mitigating the fire environment. Once the
driest conditions of the day begin with RH values dropping into
the 30 to 35 percent range, winds should be falling below 10 mph
with gusts into the lower to middle teens. Also helping conditions
will be the recent amount of moisture across the area, keeping
fuels in manageable conditions. TAMFS data shows ERC values are
around or below the 50th percentile across the area and low to
moderate fire danger in spite of the dry air moving in.

Friday also looks fairly dry, but light winds will be switching
back to southeasterly, resulting in rising RH values through the
weekend. Another surge of dry air can be expected early in the new
week after another frontal passage on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  43  75  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  45  75  54  79 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  56  69  63  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion