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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

023
FXUS64 KHGX 220426
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1126 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible
  through at least Wednesday along with hot and humid conditions.

- Less humid and a tad less hot later in the week.

- Possible wetter pattern next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

There is good deterministic and ensemble guidance support for an
increasingly amplified mid/upper flow pattern as the week
progresses. Texans should find ourselves under a building ridge
while a deep layer trough digs southward over E CONUS and another
trough over the U.S. Pacific Coast. We`ll continue with the daily
risk of isolated to widely scattered diurnally forced
showers and thunderstorms through at least Wednesday. Couldn`t
rule out a locally heavier thunderstorm. Beyond Wednesday,
increased ridging coupled with a push of dry air from the north
and northeast should lower PoPs and humidity. Temperatures through
Wednesday are expected to be in the mid/upper 90s (around 90 at
the beaches) with triple digit heat index values. By week`s end,
we are expecting highs in the low/mid 90s with heat indices below
100 degrees. Overnight temperatures likely to become somewhat
cooler by the end of the week as well.


There may be a pattern change by early next week, featuring an
increase in moisture from both the Gulf and tropical East Pacific.
In addition, there`s decent ensemble support for a breakdown in
ridging early next week. Both ECMWF / GFS ensemble means show 500MB
heights falling from near 595 dam late this week, to around 585 dam
by early/mid next week. There is not a strong signal for "fall-like"
temperatures. That being said, there is an increasing signal for
above average rainfall. The current 8-14 day precipitation outlook
from the Climate Prediction Center is leaning towards a wetter
pattern next week. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)is expected to
amplify into Phase 1 later this week and into next week. MJO
composites for this time of year show a strong correlation between
phase 1 and a wetter pattern across SE Texas. Temperature wise,
phase 1 correlates with slightly warmer than normal temperatures.

If we do see more clouds and rain, then I suspect afternoon highs
next week could easily drop into the 80s. But if the pattern mimics
what we`re seeing in the ensemble data, then it`ll likely be muggy.
Guidance continues to show cold fronts that try to make it down to
SE Texas in early October (also a potential rain maker). We shall
see if any of them can push far enough to the south to bring "real"
fall weather down to SE Texas.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Amendment) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

VFR will persist through the overnight hours. Patchy fog is possible
at KCLL and KCXO around sunrise as well as along the coast, with
periods of FEW/SCT MVFR CIGs possible. There is again a chance of
showers and thunderstorms in generally the same areas as today
(highest to the northeast and along the coast). However, confidence
is not high enough at this time to include PROB30s at any specific
site. Light winds will continue, although brief gusty and erratic
winds are possible within any thunderstorms.

AP


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over
the next few days. The best chance of a thunderstorm over the Gulf
will be during the overnight and morning hours. In the bays, the
highest risk will be late morning and early afternoon. Winds
should average 10-15 knots from the east to northeast this week,
with occasional periods in the 15-20 knot range. Gulf seas are
expected to average 2-3 feet, though could increase slightly later
in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  75  98  76  98 /  30  20  10   0
Houston (IAH)  78  97  79  96 /   0  20  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  82  92  83  91 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion