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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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873
FXUS64 KHGX 141205
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
705 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The heat and humidity will continue today with peak afternoon
  temperatures rising into the low to mid 90s (31-36 Celsius) with
  peak heat indices near 103-107 (39-42 Celsius).

- Moderate to high risk of rip currents this weekend, likely
  continuing into portions of next week with elevated high tides.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible daily through at
  least midweek. Locally heavy rainfall leading to urban and small
  stream flooding will be possible with any isolated strong
  storms.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Hot weather is anticipated for today as ridging and above-normal
heights remain overhead through the first half of today. Models
still have midlevel heights around 591-592 dam overtop the area with
onshore winds still progged to bring robust moisture & WAA during
the daytime. This surging moisture from the Gulf will increase rain
chances as well. We`ll likely see isolated/scattered showers early
in the morning over the Gulf/coastline, increasing in coverage and
spreading inland by the afternoon hours as storms also develop. Many
spots are anticipated to see some form of precipitation, which
should mostly limit the heat stress during the afternoon. However,
any areas that don`t get rainfall, or receive very little, should
still see some pretty hot conditions. Highs are still forecasted to
reach the upper 80s/mid 90s (31-36 Celsius) with heat indicies
around 103-107 DegF (39-42 Celsius). The greater coverage in
showers should cool the area sufficiently to avoid the need for
any heat products, though it would still be worth practicing heat
safety regardless. Make sure to stay hydrated and cool off indoors
if needed.

There should be a brief lull in rainfall tonight, then rain chances
will start to increase after midnight into the early morning hours
of Monday as a cold front approaches SE Texas. PWs are progged to
surge to 2.1-2.4 inches ahead of the front from a weak disturbance
pushing north up long the TX/Mex coast. Forecast soundings still
show saturated conditions, skinny CAPE profiles, and a deep warm
cloud layer, all of which signal the potential for heavy rainfall.
The cold front should enter SE Texas on Monday, stalling out over
the area and lingering there through Tuesday. WPC now has SE Texas
under Slight (Level 2/4) to Marginal (Level 1/4) Risk of Excessive
Rainfall Sunday night through Tuesday, decreasing to a Marginal Risk
(Level 1/4) on Wednesday as the frontal boundary lifts north.
Rainfall totals over this period are forecasted to range from around
1-3 inches though isolated higher amounts of 4-6 inches will be
possible. These heavier amounts over a short period could result in
flash flooding, especially if this rainfall occurs over urban/low
lying areas. Make sure to have multiple ways of receiving warnings
and remain weather aware!

Daily showers continue through the end of the work week as a weak
low makes it`s way up the Texas coast. Temperatures will also be on
the rise once again as ridging builds over the Gulf. Hot weather and
heat indicies in the triple digits are poised to return as well, so
continue practicing heat safety!

If you have any beach plans, make sure to watch out for rip currents
these next several days. Swim near a lifeguard, if possible, and be
sure to avoid swimming near any rocks, jetties, and piers where rip
currents frequently occur. Above normal tides and some isolated
minor coastal flooding will also be possible along the coastline at
high tide as well.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 702 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Isolated to scattered SHRA and isolated TSRA will develop this
morning and become more scattered to numerous in coverage this
afternoon into this evening across area terminals. Localized MVFR
ceilings and visibility reductions will be possible near showers
and storms that develop. More widespread MVFR ceilings will
develop over area terminals especially along and north of the I-10
corridor by Monday morning. S/SE winds around 10 knots with
occasional higher gusts will prevail through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas of 3 to 6 feet
are expected through early next week. Caution flags and advisories
are in effect overnight through the early morning for gusts near 25
knots and seas of 7 ft offshore. Conditions should improve by the
mid morning hours. Scattered showers and storms become more
widespread overnight through Monday as a weak front stalls out over
SE Texas. A passing disturbance along the Texas coast will bring
moderate to strong onshore winds and higher seas early Wednesday
through Friday afternoon. Continued onshore flow will result in a
moderate to high risk of rip currents with elevated tides around 3.1-
3.6 ft (MLLW).

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  91  76  82  73 /  60  70  90  70
Houston (IAH)  91  78  86  76 /  70  40  70  80
Galveston (GLS)  89  83  88  81 /  50  40  30  80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
     for GMZ330-335-350-355-375.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ370.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...CLL
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion