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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

589
FXUS64 KHGX 071818
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1218 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing cloudiness today. Rain chances begin trending upward
  tonight and Sunday, moreso west of Interstate 45. This rain
  will generally be light (and much needed).

- Clouds should begin clearing toward midweek as the slow moving
  upper level low pressure area tracks to our east. We may see
  some cooler weather filter in later next week.

- Increasing east and northeast winds and building seas this
  weekend across the marine areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

The next western trough/cut-off low is currently dipping southward
across AZ and will slowly track eastward across northern Mexico this
weekend. We should see an increasing depth of mid and high level
cloudiness move into the region over the next 12-36 hours. In the
low levels, we`re still looking for some coastal troffiness to
take shape over the mid and lower Texas coast. Moisture feeding up
and over this trough in combination with approaching large scale
lift and a series of disturbances moving overhead...should
generate increasing rain coverage across the Big Bend area and
south Texas later tonight and Sunday. The bulk of precipitation
should generally remain situated to our west and southwest, but
some of the recent guidance does show a fairly saturated profile
from about 800mb-250mb. Considering this along with a series of
impulses (and associated lift) moving overhead, there is concern
that some of this precip might survive its fall to the surface
tonight-Sunday night. As such, I`ve bumped up POPs a touch across
eastern portions of the CWA as well. Though the radar will
probably look quite messy, overall accumulations will likely be
fairly negligible east of Interstate 45 - but we did want to
advertise the mention of at least some low chances in the forecast
there too.

The cut-off low will begin to open up and track eastward across the
state Monday-Tuesday, but some lingering troffiness will remain
stretched across portions of the region thru about midweek. Mostly
cloudy conditions and lowish rain chances will continue until
ridging amplifies across the Rockies and the trof across the
eastern CONUS deepens. This type of pattern should provide dry wx
for the second half of the week...but will also be prone to some
surges of cooler wx backdooring into the region. We could very
well need to lower some of our fcst temps late next week as fcst
confidence improves. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1215 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Despite a mid-level cloud deck (~6000 ft AGL) settling in today,
VFR conditions prevail throughout the forecast cycle. Winds are
generally out of the ENE between 5-10 kts and are slightly
elevated along the coast at 10-15 kts (occasionally gusting 20
kts). Overnight, winds become VRB ~5 kts inland and remain
elevated along the coast. Patchy fog is possible again, primarily
lowering VSBYs around KLBX but breaks apart at sunrise. Winds pick
back up out of the ENE Sunday morning between 5-10 kts with that
6000 ft AGL cloud deck still lingering. To our west, a broad area
of precipitation develops late tonight and into Sunday afternoon.
Just how far this system will push into our region is still
uncertain, so PROB30s have been excluded from most of the TAFs. If
it is able to push towards us, guidance generally agrees that
precipitation would be largely stratiform and west of I-45.

BSM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1234 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

East northeast winds are expected to increase toward morning as a
coastal trough develops off the lower and mid Texas coast. Look
for moderate east and northeast winds and building seas over the
weekend, especially in the waters west of Freeport. Small Craft
Advisories will likely be required for portions of the upper Texas
coast tonight into Sunday. Conditions should gradually improve
early next week. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  56  68  55  69 /  30  60  30  30
Houston (IAH)  58  72  58  71 /  20  40  30  30
Galveston (GLS)  64  72  64  73 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...BSM
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion