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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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031
FXUS64 KHGX 021108
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
508 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Abnormally low water levels in Galveston Bay will continue
  through at least Thursday`s low tide cycle. Continued low water
  is likely due to the very low astronomical tides occurring.

- After a short cold stretch, weather is warming through normal on
  its way back to a warm period late in the week. Look for highs
  on Friday to reach back into the 70s and lower 80s, with low
  potential to get even warmer.

- Our next cold front looks to arrive early this weekend, but it
  looks to be a weak one. There is a very low chance - less than
  15 percent - for brief, light showers, with a modest dip in
  temperatures for the weekend. With forecast highs in the 70s,
  even post-frontal temps will be above average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1218 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Cold misers, I hope you enjoyed our little visit from winter
earlier this week, because it is *long* gone now. Heat misers, get
excited - the highs on Thursday were in the 70s except right on
the Gulf beaches, held back by cool waters. In the warmest part of
the coastal plain, we saw highs easily into the middle 70s. We
should only get hotter today as heat spikes in advance of a weak
cold front moving into the area very late tonight, and across
Southeast Texas through Saturday morning.

This made swapping the deterministic NBM out and the NBM median in
a very easy choice - going higher in the probabilistic
distribution is probably asking a bit more of the weak, early
January sun than is reasonable, but the median remains a
reasonable bump over the deterministic, which seems to have
trailed this warmup a little and still roughly represents the
consensus of the model envelope. Even with this relatively modest
adjustment, I have highs in the west rising into the middle 80s,
upper 70s to lower 80s most everywhere else, but closer to 70 on
the immediate coast. Fans of cooler weather, get thee to the
beach, it`s your only hope! Inland, we may see a new record high
or two?

So, I did briefly mention that cold front in the first paragraph,
but it really doesn`t deserve a whole lot more than that. It
should manage to cool things off a bit thanks to some timely
phasing with a cold pool funneled down by the arctic jet stream.
That said, it will really just filter in a bit of cooler air, and
we should expect weekend highs to remain above average. Confidence
in this is quite high - you`d have to go all the way down to 5th
percentile highs in the NBM distribution just to finally approach
average highs on Sunday. So, yes, cooler, but still seasonably
warm. In addition to the small cooldown, there will be non-zero,
but also barely above zero chances of rain today and tonight with
the front approaching. Precipitable water tonight looks to get to
the 90th percentile for the time of year, which is impressive. But
with an atmospheric column that doesn`t resemble this time of year
at all, it may still not be enough to get shower development. I
wouldn`t be surprised at all with some isolated brief, light
showers that drop a quick trace in spots, but it will be a
bigger lift to get measurable rain.

Next week, look for a mid-level ridge to build back in over
Mexico, which means we`re very likely to erase whatever cooling
occurs over the weekend. The NBM seems to have a pretty good
handle on this, with widespread highs in the 70s as early as
Monday, and our first highs out west around 80 degrees by Tuesday.
Expect the return of unseasonable heat to stick with us until the
next frontal passage.....sometime towards the end of next week.
There is a broad range of opinions amongst the model guidance and
it is at the fringe of our forecast period, so I dare not
speculate too much. What little speculation I will do, is that I
am largely following the NBM in the long term, and it does not
have a frontal passage through the end of our forecast period on
Thursday. However, if one dives into the LREF cluster analysis,
it`s not a unanimous scenario. Cluster 2, representing 27 percent
of the multi-ensemble members, represents a troughier upper
pattern and does have a front entering the area on Thursday
night. There may be some dispersiveness concerns, as this cluster
contains only 7 percent of GEFS members and 45 percent of GEPS
members. How this plays out will surely become a prominent part of
the forecast in the days to come, but for now is a vague
possibility on the probabilistic sea.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 505 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Areas of MVFR cigs are occurring from CXO points south to the
coast. These lower cigs are expected to move out of the region by
mid morning. Winds will increase from the southwest this morning
and afternoon, gusting over 20 knots at times. Winds will decrease
this evening into tonight, becoming variable in our northern zones
as a frontal boundary approaches. Areas of fog may develop in our
southern and coastal zones late overnight tonight into tomorrow
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1218 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

South to southwesterly flow will gradually increase through the
night and into tomorrow. After a brief lull tomorrow night as a
front moves in, west to northwest winds will grow in the front`s
wake on Saturday. Small craft will need to exercise caution both
before the front passes and into Saturday morning afterwards.
Winds overnight should strengthen to very near the threshold for a
small craft advisory, and isolated locations may briefly see winds
above the threshold from time to time through Friday night.

Increasing humidity levels may allow for the development of patchy
fog Thursday night and Friday night. Conditions appear somewhat
more favorable Friday night into Saturday morning. Stronger winds
from a less favorable southwesterly fetch should disrupt the
development of dense fog, but some patchy dense fog can`t be
entirely ruled out. Meanwhile, low water levels 1.0 to 1.5 feet
below mean lower low water are expected on portions of Galveston
Bay during low tide cycles through the weekend.

Looking farther out, there will be another potential window for
some patchy sea fog in the first half of next week. This potential
though does have very high uncertainty associated with it. The
wind looks like it will be from a more favorable fetch, which
would boost the chances. However, there is a question about
whether warming waters will match the increasing dewpoints,
mitigating the threat. This will be a period to monitor in the
coming days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  84  52  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  83  58  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  73  63  73  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for
     GMZ330-335.

     Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ335.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Saturday morning for
     GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Luchs

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion