Skip to main content.

National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

Related quick links> 5 Day Forecast, Local Advisories, Drought Monitor, UV Forecast, Air Quality Forecast 
448
FXUS64 KHGX 042321
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
621 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected
  through early this evening. Locally heavy rain, resulting in
  minor flooding and gusty conditions are the main risks with the
  strongest storms.

- A daily risk of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
  are expected this weekend and will persist into next week.

- Hotter and humid conditions return to the region with heat
  indicies in the triple digits each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Radar has blossomed early this afternoon with scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing over the coast and slowly
moving/training inland. Atmospheric profiles and observations show
deep low to mid level moisture still remaining over the region
with PWATs in the 2 - 2.4 inch range. In addition, there are a few
mid-level vorticity maxes moving overhead as a surface a trough
extends along the coast. This dynamic combined with peak daytime
heating and seabreeze interaction will be enough to maintain rain
and storm chances across the region this afternoon. The primary
risk with these storms will be localized flooding, gusty winds and
frequent lightning. This activity should gradually diminish
around sunset with the loss of daytime heating.

While we will get a lull in precipitation this evening, rain and
storm chances return late tonight through early Saturday evening.
Forecast soundings show a very moist profile with PWATs still at
or above 2.0 inches through the weekend. The pattern won`t change
much with a mid to upper level low spinning across the Gulf, weak
surface troughs developing over the waters and a few impulses of
energy moving overhead. Overall, this pattern will be enough to
keep rain and storm chances around 30 to 70%, particularly in the
afternoon hours as the seabreeze kicks in.

A mid to upper lvl ridge expands over the Plains, with the axis
moving over the Southeast Texas Sunday into early next week. This
will bring back hotter and more humid conditions. While subsidence
aloft will influence the pattern locally a bit, the region will
be positioned on the southeastern fringe of the ridge, bringing
weak vort maxes embedded in the flow aloft. Again, this pattern
along with increased Gulf moisture and seabreeze interaction will
be enough to support daily rain and storm chances, mostly over the
coast in the morning, then spreading further inland in the
afternoon and early evening.

Temperatures will generally remain near to slightly above average
for this time of year. Highs will generally be in the low to mid
90s, with the warmest readings for our far western counties. Heat
indices will be in the 102 to 109F range, with the warmest
conditions expected next week.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Lingering -RA/-TSRA should diminish within the next hour or so.
Otherwise, winds will gradually become light and variable from this
evening and overnight through late Saturday morning. Some models are
hinting at some low ceilings approaching from the northeast with
areas of fog, potentially impacting KUTS and KCXO around sunrise.
Another day with scattered SHRA/TSRA is anticipated, with most of
the activity developing in the east, and moving west-southwest
across the entire region throughout the day. Confidence in
rain/storm chances is moderate to high; however, confidence in the
timing and the exact locations of the heaviest precipitation
remain low to moderate. Therefore, will continue with VCSH and
PROB30 for this set of TAFs, until we get better agreement from
the Hi-Res models in future TAF issuances. Overall, expect the
best chance of rain and storms in the afternoon through the early
evening hours (17Z Saturday - 02Z Sunday). Outside of any storms
and morning low clouds across the far northern terminals, VFR
conditions will prevail.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Weak disturbances over the Gulf will continue to bring a daily risk
of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Upper
TX coast this weekend and into the upcoming week. Otherwise, light
to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas into the 2 to 3 ft
range will prevail through late next week.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  96  74  95 /  20  30  10  30
Houston (IAH)  78  93  77  93 /  10  60  20  70
Galveston (GLS)  82  90  81  90 /  30  40  50  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion