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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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415
FXUS64 KHGX 192313
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
613 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory is in effect Thursday and Friday for heat index
  values peaking between 106-110F. The advisory may need to be
  extended into the weekend.

- Rain chances will be very low through Friday, but might need to
  keep an eye out for some isolated-scattered activity near the
  Piney Woods Friday evening.

- No substantial changes to the weather pattern through most of
  next week...so the August heat continues will mainly dry
  conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Forecast looks to be one of mostly persistence for the next 7-10
days with the August heat continuing. Mid-upper ridging centered around
the Four Corners region will slowly expand further esewd into the
Southern Plains and Texas into the weekend and early next week
keeping things hot and mainly dry. Until further notice, daytime
highs will be in the 99-102F range inland and lower 90s at the
beaches. Not a whole lot of relief is expected at night with lows
in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Guidance is indicating a slight uptick
in low level moisture Thursday and Friday and dewpoints might not
be as prone to mix out quite as much, or as early, as they have
in previous days. As such, higher heat indices are anticipated and
have gone ahead and issued a Heat Advisory for Thursday & Friday...then
re-evaluate things for possible extensions into the weekend. Peak
heat index readings should generally be between 106-110F.

In terms of rainfall, the vast majority of the region should
remain dry. Cannot rule out an isolated short-lived shower or
two, but with one exception, chances are probably low enough to
exclude the mention. That one exception (and probably best
possibility in the next week) might be around the Piney Woods
region Friday evening as some upper impulses in the N/NE flow
aloft sag closer to the area and potentially generate some
scattered storms (assuming subsidence can be overcome). Any
lingering outflows on Saturday may assist in some isolated
activity. There continues to be a mix of guidance showing that
possibility, while others aren`t as bullish. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 558 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Rinse and repeat set of TAFs for this 00Z update. VFR conditions
prevail with 7-12 kt winds out of the SSW. Winds weaken and turn
more WSW during the overnight period, then once again increase return
to the SSW by tomorrow afternoon. Gusts of 15-20 kts are possible
tomorrow afternoon and evening, similar to what has occurred for
the last few days. Early tomorrow morning, inland sites may
experience some brief MVFR CIGs between 09Z and 13Z. The forecast
remains hot and dry and VFR conditions are expected for the rest
of the day tomorrow.

MLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Southwest to south winds 10-15 knots will persist, with some
intermittent higher gusts in the bays in the afternoon/evening
hours and in the open Gulf waters at night. Seas should be in the
2 to 3 foot range through the weekend. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77 102  78 102 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  79 100  80 101 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  84  91  83  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon Thursday to 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ163-
     164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
     436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...MLG
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion