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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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254
FXUS64 KHGX 021111
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
611 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily chances of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
  with the greatest chances late Saturday into Sunday as a cold
  front moves into/through the area.

- Unseasonably warm weather persists through Saturday, then the
  cold front ushers in cooler, more seasonal temperatures by
  Sunday and extending into early next week.

- Risk of moderate to strong rip currents today into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Skies will be mostly cloudy during the overnight to early morning
hours with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s over Southeast TX.
The local pressure gradient will remain tight and the low level
jet will strengthen overnight, maintaining fairly breezy
conditions over much of Southeast TX. This will limit fog
development for much of the area. We could see a few streamer
showers moving in from the Gulf before sunrise.

A mid-upper level trough moving through the Plains tonight into
Thursday morning will fire up some storms over the northern and
central portions of TX. These showers and thunderstorms are
expected to push into the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region
around sunrise time and move southward during the afternoon hours.
Some showers could produces periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall, but significant flooding is not expected at this time.
If anything, we could see some ponding of water along roadways and
low lying areas. Most of the activity is expected to be focused
over areas near and north of I-10, thus, the coast may not see
much of this activity. The highs will be mainly in the lower 80s,
thanks to the rainfall and cloudy skies. Showers and thunderstorms
will dissipate during the late afternoon to early evening hours.
Skies will remain cloudy on Thursday night with lows in the
staying in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

The day will start off cloudy on Friday, gradually becoming
partly cloudy later in the afternoon. We could see some showers
and thunderstorms during the day, mainly for areas near and east
of I-45. The highs will be warming back into the mid to upper 80s
for most of the inland portions and the upper 70s to lower 80s
over the coasts. The day will be breezy again with Southeast winds
ranging between 12-20 mph with gusts of around 25 mph.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible over the Brazos Valley and
Piney Woods region late Friday night into early Saturday an upper
level trough moves through the Plains and a cold front pushes
across central TX. Activity will expand southward and intensify
during the afternoon hours as the front pushes across Southeast TX
and slows down as it nears the coastal counties. There are some
inconsistencies with when the rain ends after the frontal passage.
The GFS continues to carry rain chances into Sunday, possibly due
to isentropic lifting, while the ECMWF has a drier solution. We
will have some cooler temperatures on Saturday with this activity,
with highs possibly in the upper 70s over the Brazos Valley and
Piney Woods region and the lower to mid 80s elsewhere. Even cooler
conditions are expected Sunday, as highs range in the upper 60s
to lower 70s for much of the area. Drier conditions with a gradual
warming trend is expected early next week.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Band of showers and isolated tstms will skirt ewd across northern
parts of the area this morning. Ongoing MVFR ceilings will
gradually lift back into VFR territory in the late morning and
early afternoon along with breezy SSE winds as rain coverage
diminishes. MVFR stratus looks to return the the region from
south to north beginning in the early evening hours. Though
probably not as gusty, winds should still remain up overnight, but
if speeds decide to diminish just enough toward Friday morning,
it`s not out of the questions we could see some brief IFR
conditions at times. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 447 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Updated to add a short fuse Small Craft Advisory for most of the
upper Texas coast til mid morning for SSE winds 20-25kt.  47

---

Previous: Moderate onshore winds and seas of 3-5 feet
will continue through Thursday morning. Light to occasionally
moderate onshore winds are expected to prevail through Saturday.
Chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase on Friday.
Higher chances of rain is expected this upcoming weekend as a cold
front moves through the region. The front is progged to move into
the waters Saturday night into Sunday morning, however, rain
chances continue into Sunday night. Moderate to strong offshore
winds and elevated seas will develop in the wake of the front on
Sunday. Small Craft Advisories will be needed on Sunday.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  82  70  85  70 /  60  10  10  20
Houston (IAH)  84  72  84  72 /  30  10  30  10
Galveston (GLS)  80  72  80  72 /  20  10  40   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-335-
     350-355-370.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
     for GMZ375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cotto
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion