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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

235
FXUS64 KHGX 142305
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
605 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure will intensify through the weekend, reducing
  chances of rain to near zero this weekend well into next week.

- Slightly above average summertime heat (upper 90s/lower 100s)
  will persist through most of the rest of the month across
  Southeast Texas. The potential for Heat Advisory issuance
  remains elevated as a result.

- Without adequate precautions outdoors, cumulative impacts of
  heat and heat stress will remain a significant risk factor to
  health (especially for heat-sensitive populations).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

As of 2 PM CDT, water vapor still shows an upper-level area of
low pressure currently centered over northwestern Mexico with an
attendant batch of moisture moving across the upper Texas
coastline. While this does keep the window open for some ongoing
convection to continue through the afternoon, ridging also
continues to hold that window only slightly ajar. High resolution
guidance still keeps PWAT values over 2 inches for a more ample
atmospheric environment for convection to tap into, with more
efficient rainfall rates certainly not out of the question through
Friday afternoon into the evening. That said, the next 18 to 24
hours also remain as the best window of opportunity for any
rainfall through the next seven days. The spatiotemporal
distribution of ridging will drive the majority of forecast
outcomes starting from Saturday onward and the first evolution of
the ridge in question is westward intensification across the
southern Great Plains. Medium-range guidance suggests geopotential
heights of this ridge being the highest by Sunday into early next
week (just below 600 dekameters), with a correlating 25% to 50%
potential of inland temperatures at 100 degrees F and winds below
10 mph. This synoptic setup will also sustain impactful heat well
into next week, with multiple periods of widespread heat indices
in the 105F-108F+ range and dew point values not mixing out as
effectively. The potential of Heat Advisory issuance is likely to
increase as a result of reduced heat relief and higher WBGT values
in calmer winds. Long-range guidance suggests ridging taking on a
more elongated, zonal shape across the southern US before
gradually breaking down in strength by the end of the week.

With multiple days of above average heat (average near 96)
expected, cumulative heat stress remains a risk to health outdoors
and precautions can be taken to reduce the risk of heat illness.
These precautions include and are not limited to: reducing or
changing time spent outdoors to cooler times of day, increasing
time and access to air-conditioned spaces, checking on heat-
sensitive populations, and checking the car seats of vehicles
before departure for the day.

Cassel

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

An isolated shower will remain possible near CLL through sunset,
but otherwise our shower and thunderstorm chances have ended for
the day. High pressure building into the region will lead to
little to no rain chances through the next several days.

VFR conditions will largely prevail through the period other than
some periods of MVFR conditions at CLL late tonight into early
tomorrow morning and some patchy fog impacting CXO near dawn.
Southerly winds will prevail with sustained winds around 6-8kt
overnight, increasing to 8-12kt during daylight hours with gusts
to 18-22kt expected.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

High pressure will begin to build further inland through the
weekend, allowing winds to slacken and seas to calm further to 2
to 3 feet well into next week. Dry weather will continue for most
of the future forecast period with limited seabreeze storm
activity if any are able to develop.

Cassel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  99  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  80  98  77  98 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  84  90  82  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cassel
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Cassel

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion