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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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954
FXUS64 KHGX 041108
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
508 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler, drier conditions will prevail for Wednesday and Thursday
  with the passage of a cold front Tuesday evening. Expect
  temperatures near or very slightly below seasonal averages.

- Gusty north winds developing behind the front will generate
  conditions hazardous to small craft on coastal Gulf waters
  Wednesday.

- Warmer than normal temperatures return Friday, and carry through
  the first half of next week with highs rising into the 70s and
  lows drifting upward into the 50s.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

After a more exciting than desired afternoon, particularly in the
northeastern part of the Houston metro, things are beginning to
calm as the evening`s cold front is pushing offshore. The last
portions of the line of showers and embedded thunderstorms are
still making their way through Jackson, Matagorda, and
southwestern Brazoria counties, while some fog and low clouds
linger just behind the front, and that will be the main issue at
the coast for the late night hours.

But ultimately, our future across the area will be like the obs in
our far north at Crockett and College Station. Exiting cloud deck
(CLL is on the back edge at midnight, DKR is already clear) and
strengthening north winds 10-15 mph with gusts around or just over
20 mph. These northerlies will filter in some modestly colder air,
but nothing like our recent cold stretch. With 850 temps only
coming down to around freezing, it should get chilly but
seasonably so - near or just a little below average for early
February. Folks way up north in Houston and Madison counties may
see a low right down at the freezing mark just before dawn
Thursday, but elsewhere across the area, the coldest we look to
get Wednesday night/Thursday morning should be in the 30s to right
around 40 in Houston`s heat island and at the coast.

Thursday morning`s lows should be the coldest point of the
forecast period as ridging aloft starts building in, and will stay
in place until the very end of the forecast period (Yes, it
changes immediately after that, but please leave me something to
talk about tomorrow night). With ridging in place, look for a
warming trend to take hold from Friday through the weekend and
into the early half of next week. I largely hold with the NBM,
perhaps with slight hedges warm, but we may have to begin to
evaluate the need for going warmer. Looking at the Euro Ensemble`s
Extreme Forecast Index, some signals for high-end temperatures are
beginning to emerge. On Saturday through Tuesday, EFIs above 0.5
for max and min temps begin to emerge in portions of Southeast
Texas. This is not a very strong signal for high-end temps, but it
is certainly suggestive. This will be a trend to watch in the days
to come.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 408 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Northerly winds of 10-15 knots with gusts up to around 26 knots
can be expected during the daytime, relaxing this evening. Clear
skies and VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 127 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

A cold front is in the process of pushing off the coast, and will
make its way over the Gulf waters through the night. Showers and
thunderstorms are occurring along the front, and will be capable
of generating locally higher winds and seas in and near where
storms are occurring. A brief period of fog may also be seen on
the bays immediately after rain moves out, but should dissipate
quickly as north winds develop shortly after the front passes.
Those north winds will strengthen and become gusty Wednesday into
Thursday. Expect periods of hazardous winds and seas, especially
over the Gulf for small craft. Winds become lighter and more
westerly on Friday and Saturday, before shifting to be more
southerly on Sunday.

At the coast, with gusty offshore winds developing, we`ll also
need to be on the lookout for low water levels at times of low
tide. While some negative tides should be expected, guidance
suggests that we may come close...but not exceed the threshold for
a low water advisory in Galveston Bay at low tide Wednesday
evening. However, should future data indicate that water levels
will go any lower, a quick advisory may be needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  62  36  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  63  40  62  45 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  60  46  58  51 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for
     GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ350-355-370-
     375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Luchs

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion