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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

398
FXUS64 KHGX 082341
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
541 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cloudy and cool for the next couple days with some chances of
  mainly light rain for some locations.

- Small Craft Advisory in effect for portions of the upper Texas
  coast for moderate east winds and 4-7ft seas.

- Cold front is expected late Wednesday or early Thursday followed
  by drier colder weather for the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

A cloudy and cool afternoon with temperatures generally running
in the 60s. Light rain, spotty in some locations, will continue to
move across portions of the region with the best chances for
areas south of I-10, particularly over our southwestern counties.
Deep surface convergence prevails over south-central TX while an
upper level closed low continues to spin over the north- central
MX before moving over TX in the coming days. Increased PVA with
height ahead of the upper low and decent low moisture at the
surface will support additional rounds of low clouds and light
rain or drizzle on Monday and Tuesday. In fact, forecast soundings
suggest this idea with widespread low clouds developing tonight
into Monday, likely producing periods of drizzle across most of SE
TX through late Monday morning. As the day progresses, a drier
airmass at the 900:850 mb layer will gradually filter in from the
northeast, reducing PoPs across our north and eastern counties.
However, rain will continue with chances for most areas south of
I-10, which is where the highest moisture availability and forcing
persist. A rinse-a-repeat forecast is expected on Tuesday as the
main upper low lifts to our north-northeast, though with skies
scattering out a bit more, temperatures will climb into the mid to
upper 70s. By mid-week, a deepening trough over the eastern CONUS
will drag a cold front across the region from Wednesday night
into Thursday. Rain and storm chances are possible ahead of the
FROPA, particularly over the coastal counties.

A mid to upper level ridge will build in across the western CONUS
by Thursday, bringing drier conditions through the weekend.
Deterministic models and some ensembles continue to bring a brief
surge of cooler airmass from the northeast Friday night into
Saturday. Confidence remains low to moderate as the 12Z guidance
shows slightly warmer 850 mb temperatures compared to previous
runs. However, the general trend shows low temperatures dropping
into the upper 30s to low 40s across our far northeastern
counties. Overall, expect a fall-like weekend with highs in the
70s and lows mainly in the 40s and 50s.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 538 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Widely scattered -SHRA should taper this evening, yielding to a
cloudy VFR deck through early tomorrow morning. Cannot rule out
localized sub-VFR. More numerous -SHRA expected by mid/late
morning into the afternoon, justifying the introduction of VCSH
prevailing groups at most TAF sites. Note the PROBs for low-end
MVFR tomorrow. Low cigs and reduced vis will be possible even
within light showers. Winds will remain light.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 148 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Moderate northeast winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft will continue
through late this evening, particularly for the Gulf waters west
of Freeport. Winds and seas will gradually weaken/subside
overnight, though Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions
will likely continue through late Monday morning. Light northeast
to east winds will return Monday evening, before a FROPA shifts
winds to the northwest from late Wednesday into Thursday. Winds
and seas may reach Advisory level after the frontal passage on
Thursday. A few light showers are possible through midweek, with
the best chances on Wednesday.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  55  70  55  75 /  30  20  10  10
Houston (IAH)  58  69  57  77 /  30  20  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  64  71  65  74 /  20  40  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ330-350-
     370.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 9 PM CST this evening
     for GMZ355-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion