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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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615
FXUS64 KHGX 221731
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1231 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong heat dome over the Southwest will keep conditions dry,
  with temperatures well-above average through the next several
  days.

- Persistent southerly flow could lead to the development of fog
  and low clouds for the next several nights.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1113 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Main story the next week with be the unseasonably warm and humid
conditions as strong upper level ridging remains in place, and
moist southerly flow continues at the surface. The ridge of high
pressure will remain over the Desert Southwest through midweek,
then become centered over the the Southern Plains through the
second half of the week. NAEFS Percentiles for the strength of this
ridge of high pressure is > 99th percentile all week long, which
will aid in the summer-like weather we will be experiencing. High
temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s for most inland
locations (around 10-15 degrees above normal) through the week
with areas along the immediate coast in the mid to upper 70s. The
one exception will be on Monday as a weak cold front slides in
from the north and stalls somewhere within SE Texas. Most CAM
guidance has it stalling between Huntsville and Conroe, allowing
for some cooler temperatures (highs in the low 80s) to filter
into the Piney Woods and parts of the Brazos Valley, while areas
along and south of I-10 will continue to see highs in the mid to
upper 80s. If this front does slide further south before stalling,
then those cooler conditions will follow, but even the most
southern solution still keeps the front stalled north of the
Houston Metro. This front quickly retreats back to the north by
Tuesday. There does appear to be some relief towards next weekend
as a cold front pushes through the region, potentially bringing us
back down closer to seasonal temperatures. However, almost half
of the ensemble suite keep temperatures at IAH > 84 degrees next
Sunday, so it remains possible that this front ends up stalling
north of our area - again.

Patchy to areas of fog will be possible nightly through the next
few night thanks to the onshore flow bringing increased moisture
to the region. Greatest coverage of the fog will likely be along
and south of I-10 between 4-7am.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Some low cigs this morning bringing MVFR conditions to a few
terminals, otherwise VFR conditions prevailing for most.
Conditions will improve through the morning. Winds will pick up
out of the SSW later this morning and last through the afternoon,
gusting 20-25kts. These winds will die down into the evening
hours. Sunday morning may see some isolated MVFR conditions once
again.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1113 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Light onshore flow (generally 5-10kt with occasional gusts to
15kt) and low seas (1-3ft) will prevail through this week. There
will be a slight chance of fog in the Bays through at least
midweek nightly, especially in the northern parts of the Bays
where inland fog spills over into the waters. Any fog that
develops will quickly dissipate through the morning hours.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  88  59  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  86  63  86  65 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  76  66  76  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...Lisney
MARINE...Fowler

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion