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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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081
FXUS64 KHGX 280633
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1233 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog will remain a possibility nightly through the weekend,
  especially in the coastal areas.

- Unseasonably warm weather will continue through the start of
  next week.

- Few cold fronts will try but are unlikely to reach SE Texas next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1147 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

This weekend will be featuring mostly sunny skies during the
daytime with high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid-80s, but
then mostly cloudy skies and areas of fog expected during the
overnight hours. Fog will have the greatest chance of forming
along the coast as sea fog rolls in from the waters during the
overnight and early morning hours. The fog should scatter out
through the mid-morning hours, but some patchy sea fog may linger
in the coastal waters into the afternoons. The abnormally warm
weather should lead to warming ocean temperatures, so sea fog
potential does decrease as we head into the new week.

A building upper-level ridge will begin to position itself over
eastern Texas Monday into Tuesday leading to even warmer weather
with highs in the mid-80s expected by Tuesday with some pockets of
upper 80s possible in the Brazos Valley. An upper-level low moving
through the Great Basin region will push the aforementioned high
pressure to the east on Wednesday. This will set up the upper-
level pattern through the remainder of the week: high pressure to
the east, troughing to the west, with southwesterly flow aloft
between those two features set-up over SE Texas. Forecast
uncertainty does increase as we head into the second half of next
week as a couple of cold front approach the region. The first will
be Wednesday into Thursday, and at this time this front appears to
stall near the I-35 Corridor. However, passing weaknesses aloft
and increased PWATs will lead to a chance of rain across SE Texas
on Wednesday. And if this front ends up making its way deeper
into SE Texas, then PoPs will likely increase. Another front may
approach the region next weekend as well, but its a bit too soon
to get into the details.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 505 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Northeasterly to southeasterly winds will trend towards becoming
light and variable going into the evening hours. The main story
continues to be patchy to areas of dense fog. Drier air in the
wake of a weak cold front continues to encompass most of the area
except right along the coast where sea fog is already lurking
offshore. This drier air will gradually modify overnight as dew
points increase, especially near and south of I-10. Model guidance
reflects a rather sharp cutoff between LIFR conditions due to
dense fog and VFR conditions. The highest confidence for patchy
fog is south of I-10 and west of I-45. IAH looks to be right on
the edge. Given the potential for fog advecting off of Lake
Houston, I kept in the TEMPO for them overnight. Any fog/low
ceilings that develop will dissipate around 15Z-16Z making way for
VFR conditions and southeasterly winds around 7-10 kt through the
afternoon. Expecting another round of reduced
visibilities/ceilings Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1147 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Areas of dense sea fog are expected to persist through Saturday
morning. The coastal waters, Matagorda Bay, and lower Galveston
Bay will have the highest coverage of dense fog, with patchy dense
fog expected for the upper Galveston Bay. The fog is expected to
retreat from the Bays during the mid-morning hours, but may linger
in the coastal waters through the afternoon. Another round of fog
is expected Saturday night into Sunday morning. Chance for dense
fog is looking lower Sunday night into Monday morning as
persistent warm weather aids in rising SSTs, and thus limiting sea
fog development.

Otherwise, expect low seas and light onshore winds to prevail into
early next week.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  55  85  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  58  83  60  81 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  60  73  62  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for TXZ226-227-
     235>238-335>338-436>439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ330-335.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST Saturday for GMZ350-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Fowler

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion