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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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328
FXUS64 KHGX 141935
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
135 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and thunderstorms likely on Sunday.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms, locally heavy rain, and gusty
  coastal winds will be the primary concerns on Sunday. Hazardous
  marine conditions are expected.

- Colder air and strong marine winds expected Sunday night into
  Monday. Gale Watch in the bays and Gulf during this timeframe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Taking a look at water vapor imagery along with satellite derived PW
values, we can see quite the split in moisture availability.
Currently, PW values are close to the 25th percentile (~0.58") over
our far eastern zones. Meanwhile, over Matagorda Bay, PW values are
already exceeding the 75% percentile (~1.31"). Unsurprisingly, we
already have some isolated showers generally around the Matagorda
Bay area and the adjacent coastal Gulf waters as the first upper
level disturbances pushes into the area. The ridge axis that has
been overhead the past couple of days is pushing its way out to the
east. As previously mentioned, the first embedded shortwave trough
is moving through the area this afternoon. The latest high-res model
guidance indicates that convective coverage will gradually increase
later this afternoon once daytime "heating" comes into play. I put
that in parentheses for now because daytime heating for today will
only peak into the low to maybe mid 70s right around Matagorda Bay.
There is some modest amounts of instability off the coast, so it`s
not out of the question to see some occasional bouts of lightning.

There will still be a layer of dry air in the mid-levels (between
500-800mb) that this increasing moisture and lift would have to
battle through. The best chances for rain remain west of I-45
(closer to the Brazos River). Some isolated heavier downpours will
be possible later this afternoon into the evening around Matagorda
Bay. Some of the latest high-res guidance supports this and even
shows the potential for training convection right along the coast
near Matagorda Bay late this evening into early Sunday morning. As a
result, WPC has outlined this area (generally west of Freeport and
south of Edna) in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of excessive
rainfall for today/tonight. Due to the increasing cloud cover and
increasing easterly winds, high temperatures today will mostly top
out in the upper 60s to low 70s.

The next upper level disturbance is currently pushing through the
Four Corners region which has led to surface low pressure
development near the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles. The placement of
this surface low is important to note because it will place areas
generally west of I-45 and south of I-10 in the warm sector. There
remains a little bit of uncertainty on how far north this warm
sector will extend...there is potential for this to extend past the
I-10 corridor into Harris County for instance. There`ll be quite a
bit of shear to work with as a LLJ moves in overhead Sunday morning
as the low tracks southeastward.

If we take a look at updraft helicity, we see that there is
potential for a couple of stronger updrafts to push their way into
areas within the warm sector...which is why the exact placement of
the warm sector is important to note. So, we`ll have shear,
instability, moisture, and plenty of lift to work with...so SPC has
outlined areas generally south of a College Station-Conroe-Liberty
line in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather on Sunday.
Damaging winds and hail are the primary hazards, but a brief
isolated tornado can`t be ruled out. We`ll go over the evolution of
this entire event in a few paragraphs...

Heavy rainfall will also be a threat, especially as the surface low
moves into our area along with the associated cold front. This will
surge PW values near the MAX percentile (~1.99") along the coast.
The overlap of climatologically high PW`s and numerous sources of
lift creates the potential for rainfall rates peaking above 2-3"/hr.
The greatest potential of this remains south of I-10 and along the
coast. We`re still expecting widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3"
north of I-10. South of I-10, rainfall totals peak in the 3-6" range
with the potential for totals possibly approach 6-8" with the
highest totals occurring right along the coast (especially near
Matagorda Bay).

Moderate to heavy rainfall potential begins around Matagorda Bay
this evening. As mentioned earlier, we could see training convection
set up going into Sunday morning which will then be followed by a
line of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. As a result, WPC
has outlined areas near and south of I-10 in a slight risk (level 2
of 4) of excessive rainfall for Sunday. Elsewhere (outside of
portions of the Piney Woods), there is a marginal risk (level 1 of
4) of excessive rainfall. It`s worth mentioning that some of the
high-res guidance (including the RRFS), has rainfall amounts
exceeding 15" just offshore...so we`ll continue to monitor trends to
make sure it doesn`t trend further north.

Now for a brief overview of the evolution of this event...we begin
with isolated to scattered showers this afternoon. Some training
convection will be possible later this evening into Sunday morning
along the coast near Matagorda Bay. Scattered showers will be
possible throughout the morning all over Southeast Texas, and then a
line of storms associated with a frontal boundary will begin to push
into the Brazos Valley in the mid to late morning hours. It will
make it into the Houston metro area in the late morning to early
afternoon hours, and then off of the coast in the late afternoon
hours. The strongest of the storms (if they develop) would most
likely occur west of I-45.

The cold front pushes offshore Sunday evening but lingering moisture
and lift may lead to our coolest day since mid-March on Monday!
Lingering moisture along with lift from the nearby upper level low
will result in scattered light rain showers persisting through
Monday afternoon...but rain chances gradually taper out from north
to south throughout the day. A widespread thick layer of low-level
cloud cover will also persist throughout the day. The other part of
that equation will be gusty northeasterly winds that prevail in the
wake of the front throughout the day on Monday. We are expecting
sustained winds near the Wind Advisory threshold along the coast.
Technically, wind speeds along the barrier islands will rise enough
later this evening to warrant the issuance of a Wind Advisory
beginning at 6pm. For the coastal counties/zones, a Wind Advisory
will go into effect at 9am Sunday and run through Monday afternoon.
The barrier island Wind Advisory will run through Monday evening.

Elevated winds, lingering cloud cover, and light rain generally
aren`t favorable for heating...so the forecast high temperatures for
Monday have continued to trend down. Most of us will not see
temperatures rise above 60 degrees on Monday...so mostly highs in
the upper 50s. This will likely be our coolest day that we`ve
experienced since mid-March. As far as low temperatures go, we`ll
only see those bottom out in the 40s/50s Sunday night through
Tuesday night.

We`ll see a gradual warming trend through next week as high
temperatures rise into the 60s on Tuesday and the 70s on Wednesday
courtesy of ridging aloft moving in. The dry pattern looks to
persist through midweek, before slight rain chances return towards
the end of the work week.

Batiste/Crabb

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 135 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

VFR conditions prevail throughout today and into the evening. The
main flight impact are gusty ESE winds between 20-25kts inland, with
an occasional gust up to 30kts. Probability remains low to see 30kts
gusts inland, thus, it remains out of the TAFS for the inland sites
but still possible. The coast will see gusts between 25-35kts. The
prefrontal SHRA begins to enter the vicinity during the overnight
before progressing S`ward through the coast. The main cold front is
anticipated to arrive Sunday around 15z and march S to reach the
coast by the afternoon. Some of the thunderstorms have the
capability to become SVR with strong wind gusts as we remain in a
Marginal Risk from SPC. These storms bring decreased VIS/CIGS to
MVFR/IFR conditions. Once the front passes through -SHRA can linger
into the next TAF cycle on Monday and this is when the winds back to
NE. The previously mentioned MVFR/IFS CIGS are anticipated to last
through Monday morning. VFR conditions are expected to return Monday
late-morning to early afternoon.

CMW

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 135 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the bays and Gulf
waters through Sunday evening as moderate easterly to southeasterly
winds persist. Winds will transition from easterly to southeasterly
going into the overnight hours. Subsequently, seas will rise to 6-9
ft overnight and through most of the day on Sunday. Periods of
showers/storms will begin as early as this afternoon/evening around
Matagorda Bay, but the most impactful round comes on Sunday
afternoon as a frontal boundary pushes off the coast. Some of the
storms on Sunday could be strong to severe and produce strong wind
gusts and isolated waterspouts.

Once the frontal boundary pushes off the coast on Sunday evening,
strong northeasterly winds will follow with sustained winds in the
30-35kt range and gusts near or potentially exceeding 40 kt. Seas
subsequently rise and begin to peak in the 10-13 ft range especially
in the offshore Gulf waters. As a result, a Gale Watch is in effect
for the bays and Gulf waters beginning Sunday evening thru Monday
evening. Winds and seas gradually subside throughout the day on
Tuesday, but may remain elevated enough for Small Craft Advisories.

We are continuing to monitor water levels as PETSS guidance
reflects peaks in the 3.0-3.5 ft MLLW during times of high tide over
the weekend...especially Sunday afternoon/evening.  The elevated
onshore flow over the weekend will also lead to moderate to high
risk of rip currents along Gulf facing beaches. A Beach Hazards
Statement has been issued to cover the threats of minor coastal
flooding and the increased risk of rip currents.

Batiste/Crabb

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 135 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

With the anticipated periods of moderate to heavy rainfall coming up
today into Sunday, there is some potential for action to minor stage
river flooding especially along the San Bernard and Tres Palacios
Rivers. This is where the greatest confidence of higher rainfall
totals is expected to occur (generally around Matagorda Bay).
Rainfall totals south of I-10 are expected to be in the 3-6" range
with isolated totals possibly peaking closer to 6-8". Rainfall rates
in the heaviest downpours will likely exceed 2-3"/hr, so flash
flooding in low-lying areas and areas with poor drainage is
certainly possible. The most likely impact in urban areas would be
localized street flooding if heavy downpours occur for an extended
period of time. We`ll also be monitoring for localized rises on
the Houston bayous and nearby watersheds.

Stay tuned for additional updates as we go throughout the week and
remember that you can monitor updated river forecasts via the NWS
NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/).

Batiste/Crabb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  53  60  48  57 /  70 100  60  20
Houston (IAH)  55  64  50  58 /  30 100  80  40
Galveston (GLS)  65  72  58  63 /  10 100  80  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 3 PM CST Monday for TXZ214-
     235>238-313-335>338.

     Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for TXZ436>439.

     Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Monday for
     TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ330-335-350-
     355-370-375.

     Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...CMW
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion