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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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708
FXUS64 KHGX 161124
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
624 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong northerly winds expected tonight into Monday. A Wind
  Advisory is in effect for all of Southeast TX.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected on Monday
  as very dry air overlaps with gusty northerly winds. A Red Flag
  Warning is in effect for most of Southeast TX on Monday.

- Hazardous marine conditions occuring tonight through Monday:
  strong northerly winds (gusting to 40+ kt), elevated seas (10-15
  ft), and potential for negative tides. A Gale Warning is in
  effect through Monday afternoon.

- Light freeze expected in portions of the Piney Woods/Brazos
  Valley Monday night, followed by a warming trend through the
  rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The cold front is currently about to exit the offshore Gulf
waters and strong northerly winds are starting to ramp up over
Southeast TX. We are observing winds at 20-25 with gusts of 30-40
mph inland. These speeds are expected to prevail into the morning
hours as a 50-60 knot low level jet moves overhead behind the
frontal passage tonight. The Wind Advisory will continue in effect
through 6 PM Monday. Make sure loose and light outdoor objects
have been secured. Strong winds could also lead to power outages
at times. Cold, dry air will also move in quickly behind the front
tonight, with temperatures dropping into the upper 30s to mid 40s
by sunrise. Taking into account the strong northerly winds,
temperatures will feel closer to the upper 20s to mid 30s. Thus,
make sure to bundle up during the early morning hours.

Colder conditions prevail Monday, with sunny skies and highs in
the 50s areawide. Very nice :P. The one thing we will have to
monitor closely on Monday is the potential for elevated to
critical fire weather conditions given how dry and windy we will
be (more details on the Fire Weather Discussion below). Winds
begin to relax by late afternoon to evening.

CAA will continue on Monday night and will give us the coldest
temperatures for this week. The lows will be in the lower 30s
(near freezing) over the Piney Woods, the mid 30s to lower 40s for
the rest of the inland portions, and the mid to upper 40s along
the coasts. Fair weather will prevail for the rest of the work
week. Southerly flow will return Tuesday and continue into the
rest of the work week, resulting in another warming trend with
highs will be back in the 80s by Thursday and the upper 80s to
lower 90s this weekend.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

The primary concern will be strong gusty northerly winds. Gusts
this morning over 30 knots have been common, with areas near the
coast gusting over 40 knots. KGLS has gusted as high as 50 knots.
These winds are expected to gradually decrease today. However,
gusts over 30 knots could occur well into the afternoon. Winds
will weaken significantly this evening, becoming light and
variable overnight for most inland locations.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

As of midnight tonight, the cold front was exiting the offshore
Gulf waters. Strong northerly winds of 30-35 knots and gusts of
40-50 knots are expected in the wake of the front. Seas will
build to 8-15 feet. A Gale Warning is now in effect through Monday
afternoon. Low water levels can be expected in the bays Monday
morning. Winds will begin to relax Monday evening and seas will
gradually subside Monday night into Tuesday. Light onshore winds
return Tuesday night and continue Thursday. Winds may veer south-
southwesterly Friday into the upcoming weekend.

Cotto

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Very dry air will filter across Southeast TX in the wake of
Sunday`s front. Expect elevated to critical fire weather
conditions as afternoon RH values lower into the upper teens to
lower 20s on Monday and northerly winds are around 20-25 mph with
gusts of 25 to 35 mph. A Fire Weather Watch will be in effect for
most of Southeast TX on Monday. Dry conditions prevail on
Tuesday, but winds will veer southeasterly and be much lighter. RH
values will begin to increase mid week into the end of the work
week as south-southeasterly winds prevail and low level moisture
recovers.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  54  33  64  42 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  56  38  63  46 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  58  47  61  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for TXZ176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-
     313-335>338.

GM...Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330-335-350-
     355-370-375.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT
     Tuesday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

     Low Water Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ335.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cotto
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion