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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

186
FXUS64 KHGX 110546
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1246 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The workweek will begin with some lingering showers and slightly
  cooler than normal conditions.

- Drier and milder weather returns through the middle of this week
  with only 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall likely through next
  weekend.

- Some temperature maximums could reach the 90-degree mark by the
  end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Aloft, troughing will continue to carry remnant convection (and
the attendant frontal boundary) further offshore through the rest
of the day on Monday. After it does so, northwesterly flow will
briefly ensue across southeast Texas. Ridging will shift from the
Intermountain West across West Texas by Wednesday, displacing
northwest flow and reintroducing onshore southerly winds through
the rest of the week into the weekend. This will set the stage for
a gradual warmup into the latter half of the week. Medium-range
guidance suggests the center of the ridge axis to be across East
Texas by that time with a 60-70% chance of temperature maximums
reaching the 90-degree mark across most areas north of the I-10
corridor.

By the end of the workweek, the 70-degree isodrosotherm makes its
return further inland on southerly winds that also gain speed to
near 10 mph. Long-range guidance still very gradually tries to re-
introduce some rain chances into next weekend, however, forecast
confidence remains low at this range due to the variation in the
strength of the ridge that is yet to be resolved. WPC Day 1-7 QPF
values remain lower as a result, ranging at 0.5-1.5 inches with
the bulk of that total coming in the next 24 hours.

Cassel

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 512 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Breezy easterly to southeasterly winds will persist over the next
few hours before trending to become light and variable later this
evening as a frontal boundary and associated showers/storms
approach. Ahead of the front, a brief period of MVFR to IFR
ceilings is expected to spread inland from south to north. GLS is
already experiencing intermittent MVFR ceilings as of 22Z/Sunday.
Some scattered showers have already begun to develop around CXO
and northward late this afternoon. The main line of storms will
begin to push through CLL/UTS just after 00Z, then into the
Houston metro area terminals around 06Z, and off the coast around
10Z. Some of these storms may be strong to severe and capable of
producing strong winds and hail. The timing of these storms has
been covered by TEMPOs in all of the TAFs. The line is anticipated
to become increasingly broken up as it makes its way towards the
coast, so there`s higher potential for strong winds at the
northern terminals along the line.

Behind the front/storms,another brief period of MVFR ceilings is
expected mainly for CXO and northward through the mid-morning
hours of Monday. Northerly to northeasterly winds between 10-15 kt
will prevail throughout the day Monday with widespread VFR
conditions expected by 17Z.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

As of 12:30 AM CDT, a line of strong thunderstorms (some severe)
are about 40-60 miles from shore and will emerge offshore later
this Monday morning, producing some moderate northerly winds. As
the storms abate through the day today, post-frontal northerly
winds will remain through the rest of the day before veering back
onshore by Wednesday through the rest of the drier and milder
workweek ahead. All post-frontal winds are expected to remain
below the threshold requiring issuance of a Small Craft Advisory
at this time.

Cassel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  78  64  81  65 /  20   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  82  68  85  70 /  30  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  81  72  81  74 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cassel
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Cassel

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion