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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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681
FXUS64 KHGX 221136
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
636 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong heat dome over the Southwest will keep conditions dry,
  with temperatures well-above average through the next several
  days.

- Persistent southerly flow could lead to the development of fog
  and low clouds for the next several nights.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Dry conditions will prevail tonight with low temperatures in the
lower 60s inland and the mid to upper 60s over the Houston Metro
and the coastal areas. There is the chance for patchy fog to
develop during the overnight into early morning hours, however,
south to southwesterly winds may be strong enough to inhibit its
formation. Fog will most likely develop over areas with winds at
5 mph or less, which seems to be more likely as we near sunrise
on Sunday. Fog, if any, is expected to burn off shortly after
sunrise.

Another tranquil and warm day is in store for Sunday with skies
becoming mostly sunny by the early afternoon hours. Although
temperatures will remain well-above average, the highs look to be
a few degrees lower. This is in response to the mid-level high
beginning to shift westward into Baja California and northern
Mexico as a mid-upper level low over the western Gulf shifts
slightly north. We will also have slightly drier air moving in
from the Gulf. Therefore, expect highs to be closer to the mid to
upper 80s range inland and the mid 70s range along the immediate
coast. The pressure gradient will tighten throughout the day as a
cold front moves southward across northern TX. Expect somewhat
breezy conditions in the afternoon as winds increase to 10-15 mph
with gusts of around 20 mph on occasion.

The potential for fog will rise late Sunday night into early
Monday morning as southeasterly winds relax to 5 mph or less.
Areas of dense fog is possible and could affect the morning
commute. Drier air will remain over the Brazos Valley and Piney
Woods region and could lead to low temperatures in the upper 50s,
while the rest of Southeast TX remains in the lower 60s.

The cold front is expected to stall to our north on Monday, thus,
we will not be getting much of a relief from the heat except for
the Piney Woods area where highs will be closer to the lower 80s.
For the rest of the inland portions, the highs are likely to
remain in the mid to upper 80s. For the overnight hours, the lows
will remain in the 60s and we will continue to have the potential
for fog. Similar conditions are expected on Tuesday.

By mid week, the high will strengthen again and progress east
closer into northern Mexico and western TX. This will continue to
provide subsidence, and thus, dry conditions. It will also rise
our high temperatures back into the upper 80s to lower 90s range.
Sadness. It`s too early to know for certain, but a few models are
starting to hint at a cold front possibly pushing through
Southeast TX sometime during the upcoming weekend and may lead to
cooler conditions.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Some low cigs this morning bringing MVFR conditions to a few
terminals, otherwise VFR conditions prevailing for most.
Conditions will improve through the morning. Winds will pick up
out of the SSW later this morning and last through the afternoon,
gusting 20-25kts. These winds will die down into the evening
hours. Sunday morning may see some isolated MVFR conditions once
again.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Light to moderate southerly winds and seas of 2-4 feet are
expected through the rest of the weekend. Light southeasterly
winds are then expected Monday through the end of the work week,
along with seas of 1-3 feet. A mid-level low over the western Gulf
could bring a few showers over the offshore coastal waters Sunday
night into Monday. Conditions will remain dry for the rest of the
forecast period. Areas of patchy sea fog is possible over the
bays and adjacent nearshore waters during the next few days
generally between the evening to late morning hours.

Cotto

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

We will need to maintain a close watch on the fire weather
conditions on Sunday, in particular during the afternoon hours as
afternoon RH values drop in the 30-40 percent range and southerly
winds increase to 10-15 mph with gusts of up to 20 mph.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  88  59  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  86  63  86  65 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  76  66  76  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cotto
AVIATION...Lisney
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion