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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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088
FXUS64 KHGX 220025
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
725 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong heat dome over the Southwest will keep conditions dry,
  with temperatures well above average through the weekend and
  persisting into next week.

- Persistent southerly flow will lead to daily opportunities for
  fog and low clouds, at least through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

The primary weather stories for the weekend and the upcoming week
remain centered on unseasonably warm temperatures, persistent dry
conditions and periods of morning fog.

A strong heat dome of high pressure centered over the southwestern
CONUS and a surface high to our east continue to be the main drivers
of our local weather. Well-above normal temperatures are on tap for
the region this afternoon, with highs reaching the upper 80s to low
90 across our far western counties (Brazos Valley area).

Persistent light southerly flow and low-level Gulf moisture will
lead to another round of patchy-to-areas of fog and low to mid level
clouds tonight into early Sunday. Some fog may be locally dense at
times. With the ridge remaining firmly in place, Sunday is expected
to be another hot and breezy day once the morning fog burns off.

The southwestern CONUS ridge is expected to weaken slightly late
Sunday into Monday. This is in response to a weak, dry cool front
attempting to backdoor into the area while a mid-upper level low
moves over the northwestern Gulf. No significant impacts are
expected with the FROPA and/or upper-lvl low. Expect temperatures to
drop perhaps a degree or two, with the only potential for rain being
a few light showers well offshore.The aforementioned high pressure
will strengthen and expand eastward. This will reinforce a pattern
of dry, hot and humid conditions through the remainder of the
forecast period.

With southerly flow maintaining surface moisture, morning fog remains
a recurring concern. Current model guidance suggests low
probabilities for reduced visibility for tonight (15 to 20%), medium
probabilities (25-45%) for early Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 709 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

VFR conditions on going at all sites this evening. MVFR CIGs
expected around 09Z for CXO and terminals south of CXO. Patchy fog
also possible at southern terminals during the early morning
hours. Winds will increase out of the SSW during the morning into
the afternoon hours with gusts to around 24 knots. As winds
increase, cloud cover will become more scattered with VFR levels
returning by the afternoon. Winds expected to become light out of
the south during the evening hours; however, occasional gusts to
around 25 knots will be possible at IAH/HOU terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Light to moderate onshore winds (SSW to SSE) winds will prevail this
weekend and into the rest of the upcoming week. A weak upper-level
disturbance will be moving across the northwestern Gulf early this
week, as surface high pressure slightly shifts eastward into
Florida. No significant impacts are expected with this low, other
than a few light showers well-offshore on Monday. High pressure
reestablishes again through the week, keeping the upper TX coast
dry, with light to occasionally moderate winds and seas with from 2
to 4 ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  61  88  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  64  87  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  66  75  66  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion