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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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233
FXUS64 KHGX 211744
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1244 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory remains in effect. Hot conditions will persist
  through next week.

- Scattered storms are possible late this afternoon and this
  evening across the Piney Woods region. Gusty winds are possible
  in the stronger cells.

- Cannot rule out some isolated showers/storms on Saturday, but
  most of us will likely remain dry and hot.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Satellite imagery shows some weak shortwaves over SE OK sagging
southward early this afternoon. With temps climbing to around 100F
in advance, guidance still indicates the potential for scattered
storm development late in the day and this evening up around the
Piney Woods area that we`ll need to keep an eye on. Any stronger
cells will have the capability producing some 25-50mph wind
gusts. Vast majority of models keep this precip across NE parts of
our CWA before dissipating later tonight, however it`s certainly
not unheard of that these storms tend to overperform in these
patterns so I plan to maintain the mention of at least lowish POPs
much further south and east until trends can be established.

Another set of weak disturbances is fcst to take a similar track
down the periphery of the ridge late in the day Saturday &
Saturday evening...so am keeping some lower end rain chances in
the fcst.

Otherwise, ridging & heat will continue to be the primary wx story
well into next week. Highs in the triple digits are anticipated
thru much of the work week. In terms of the Heat Advisory, I`m
going to leave it as-is thru Saturday for now and let future
shifts reevaluate things on a day-to-day basis in terms of any
extensions or potential reconfigurations. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

VFR conditions and southwesterly to southerly winds will persist
through the afternoon hours today. Wind speeds will increase to
near 10-15 kt closer to the coast this afternoon following the sea
breeze. Late this afternoon into the evening, will need to monitor
the potential for convection drifting into the area from the
northeast. UTS has the "best" potential for seeing isolated
convection, but the probability is on the low side. The PROB30
reflects the most likely timeframe for convective impacts.
Elsewhere, conditions are expected to remain dry. Keeping the
trend of persistence for the overnight portion of the TAFs which
hints at MVFR/IFR CIGs/VIS for CXO and terminals northward in
addition to LBX. VFR conditions will return by 15Z/Saturday with
light winds out of the southwest.

Batiste/Lenoir

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Thunderstorms are expected north and east of the region this
evening. These storms are not anticipated to make it into our
waters, but are worth watching. Otherwise, light to occasionally
moderate southwest and south winds and 2 to 3 foot seas are
expected over the next several days. Winds may occasionally gust
up to 20 knots during the afternoon in the bays, and during the
overnight hours in the Gulf.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  78 103  78 102 /  20  20  20  10
Houston (IAH)  81 102  80 101 /  20  20  20  10
Galveston (GLS)  83  92  83  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion