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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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747
FXUS64 KHGX 141738
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1138 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Negative tide levels are anticipated in the bays this week, most
  significant late tonight through Thursday afternoon.

- Two dry cold fronts are forecast to push through the area: one
  currently pushing through this afternoon and another late Friday
  afternoon. These fronts will keep temperatures seasonably cool
  into the weekend.

- Brief warm up on Sunday before a third cold front early next
  week brings potential for rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1129 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

A reinforcing cold front is in the process of pushing through SE
Texas this afternoon. A prefrontal trough ahead of this boundary
has caused winds to shift W/WNW. Satellite derived TPW ranges
from 0.5-0.75 inches across the area, rather low, thus this FROPA
should be almost entirely dry. The front should move off the
coast later this afternoon with breezy northerly winds and cooler
temperatures filtering in behind it. Daytime highs should top out
in the 60s/lower 70s, but anticipate much cooler temps overnight
with lows for Thursday morning in the 30s/40s. A light freeze is
expected occur in many spots across the Piney Woods area around
Crockett.

Thursday is still slated to be a fairly quiet day as we find ourself
post-cold front. Surface high pressure should pass over the region
during the daytime with breezy northerly winds early in the day
becoming light and variable, then later shifting southeasterly in
the evening. Daytime highs will be fairly cool as onshore flow is
still set to occur after peak heating with highs topping out in
the 50s. After onshore flow is resumes, we`ll see moisture slowly
return overnight, which should help limit the full extent of
cooling. Lows for Friday morning will should be slightly warmer,
though still in the 30s/40s across much of the area with some
lower 50s along the coast.

Friday will see another mid/upper level trough dig through the North-
Central Plains/Mississippi River Valley. This trough should send
another cold front towards SE Texas, which will enter the Brazos
Valley some time during the late afternoon then push off the coast
later in the evening by around midnight. PWs will still be low,
forecasted to be around 0.75" or less, thus rain appears unlikely
with this FROPA as well. Highs during the daytime should top out in
the 60s/lower 70s. Breezy and cooler air filters in overnight into
the early morning hours with lows for Saturday morning ranging from
the 30s/40s to possibly lower 50s at the coast. Could see lows touch
the freezing mark across the northern edge of our CWA.

Saturday on the whole should feature benign, post-frontal weather as
high pressure fills in over the region, causing winds to relax and
shift northeasterly. Highs should reach the 50s/60s during the
daytime. Clear skies aloft from high pressure and with northerly
flow still in place, we should see some of the coolest temperatures
overnight into Sunday morning with lows in the upper 20s/lower
40s.

Sunday will see surface high pressure move off to the east into the
Lower Mississippi River Valley, allowing onshore flow to return
early in the evening. This will usher in WAA and bring gradually
warming temperatures and increasing moisture into next week. Highs
for Sunday should reach the mid 50s/upper 60s during the daytime.
Overnight temperatures will be slightly warmer, but still cool with
lows for Monday morning anticipated to bottom out in the
30s/lower 50s.

The brief warm-up looks to come to an abrupt end once again on
Monday, as long range models indicate that another mid/upper level
trough should dig across the Northern Plains/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley
on Monday, sending a third cold front into SE Texas. Timing is still
uncertain and varies by model with the front passing through some
time early on Monday/early Tuesday afternoon. An earlier FROPA as
shown in the ECMWF will be drier, whereas a later FROPA shown in
the GFS will be wetter.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

A dry cold front is currently moving across the TAF sites. Behind
the FROPA, expect NW from 10 to 15 knots,with gusts reaching 25-30
knots. The front should be moving off the coast by early this
evening. Winds will gradually weaken after sunset, but remaining
around 10 knots this evening. Light NW winds can be expected mainly
after midnight.

It is worth mentioning the potential for LLWS, particularly near
KIAH, KHOU and KSGR terminals. Due to inconsistencies between model
solutions, LLWS was not included in the TAFs; however, there is a
potential for these conditions between 01Z to 08Z Thursday.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1129 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Mariners should remain mindful of negative tide levels through the
week, especially around low tide cycles in the central and northern
half of the the bays. Another cold front will push off the coast
later this afternoon, prompting Small Craft Advisories across all
bays and waters. A Low Water Advisory will be in effect overnight
into Thursday morning for Galveston bay, as water levels dip
below -1.0ft MLLW at low tide. High pressure passes over the area
Thursday, causing winds and seas to decrease and shift
southeasterly. Another cold front is slated to push off the coast
late Friday night/early Saturday morning, bringing moderate
northeasterly winds in it`s wake.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  35  59  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  39  58  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  45  58  51  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
     Thursday for GMZ330-335.

     Low Water Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Thursday
     for GMZ335.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Thursday for GMZ350-355-370-
     375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion