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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

153
FXUS64 KHGX 181108
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
608 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The threat for tropical storm conditions has ended as Arthur
  dissipated. Any lingering coastal flooding will end early this
  morning.

- Dangerous heat will impact southeast Texas through early next
  week, especially today and Friday. Those planning outdoor
  activities should prepare for increased heat stress from
  dangerous heat indices.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Tropical Storm Arthur is no more as of early this morning, the
weakened and elongated surface low now far separated from any
organized convection and now shifting away from the area. All
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings have been canceled. Lingering
minor coastal flooding is also subsiding as we move past the high
tide cycle, and the remaining Coastal Flood Advisory will be
allowed to expire early this morning.

The next major focus will be increasing heat stress in the wake
of Arthur. A lingering soupy airmass, with CAM ensembles
supporting dewpoints as high as 80-81F (around 27C) at times and
increasing high temps, will support heat index readings in the
108-112F (42-44C) range today and again on Friday. During the
overnight, temperatures will only fall to the upper 70s and lower
80s (26-28C) providing limited recovery from the daytime
extremes. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through Friday.

At least scattered convection will be possible mainly from late
Friday through the weekend, though there is at least a chance for
a period of greater rain coverage within this time frame. A
stalling surface front over the Red River Valley will serve as a
focus for convective development Thursday into Friday. While the
front will not make it close to our area, some of the resulting
storms and outflow from prior storms may move into our area Friday
afternoon into Friday night. A few strong storms cannot be ruled
out, and there are some guidance solutions showing greater rain
coverage persisting Friday night through the day Saturday as
well. Scattered convection will remain possible into Sunday,
before strengthening mid level ridging increasingly limits rain
chances early next week. Outside of interference from clouds/rain,
heat stress will continue to be elevated through early next week,
with potential for triple digit (38C+) heat indices each day.
Additional heat advisories may eventually be needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Mix of CIGS ranging from MVFR to LIFR span across the region this
morning. IFR/LIFR most common north/northwest of the Houston area,
with MVFR/isolated IFR to the south. Patchy fog/mist has also
developed, largely around 2-6 SM for most areas. CIG/VIS should
scatter/lift with daytime heating. VFR conditions should return by
the late morning/early afternoon with light to moderate southerly
winds. Some light showers linger but otherwise conditions should
remain dry. Winds ease down slightly in the evening as MVFR CIGs
start to fill in from the coast, slightly soon that
yesterday/today. Could see another brief window of IFR/lower FLs
early Friday morning.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 124 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Tropical Storm Arthur will move through the marine zones over the
next several hours, bringing winds between 35 and 40kts, with
gusts as high as 50 kts. Seas 6 to 9 feet will persist until this
evening, with winds and waves subsiding as TS Arther moves inland
into SW LA this evening. Onshore flow will become light to
moderate by Thursday and persist into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  94  80  93  78 /   0  10  30  50
Houston (IAH)  94  81  93  79 /   0   0  10  30
Galveston (GLS)  90  84  90  84 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT Friday for
     TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-
     335>338-436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-335-
     350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DL
AVIATION...03
MARINE...JTC

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion