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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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907
FXUS64 KHGX 101930
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
130 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop
  this afternoon, mainly along and south of I-10.

- Additional round of showers and storms is expected this evening
  through early Wednesday. A few storms could become strong to
  severe with hail and heavy downpours as the main risk.

- Cold front is expected Wednesday night followed by drier cooler
  weather for the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Periods of showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and move
east-northeastward across portions of SE Texas early this
afternoon. Latest satellite imagery and surface observations show
the upper lvl trough moving over TX/south Plains, while at the
surface, a coastal trough moves northeastward along the Middle TX
coast. With increasing WAA, and bulk shear of 40 to 55 knots,
isolated hail (up to 1") will be possible with any strong cells
through late this afternoon and evening. The best potential for
stronger showers and storms will remain roughly along and south of
I-10, which is where the best moisture availability persists.
Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity
this evening and overnight as the trough lifts northward along the
Upper TX coast. Therefore, we will continue to monitor areas from
Conroe coastward for additional convection redevelopment this
evening and overnight. With decent dynamics aloft, bulk shear and
cool mid-level temperatures; a risk of isolated hail will remain
possible with the strongest storms. SPC highlights this threat in
their Day 1 outlook for severe weather with a Marginal Risk (level
1 of 5).

Showers and storms should gradually taper off after sunrise
Wednesday as the main forcing and sfc convergence move out of the
region. Skies will slowly clear out from the northwest, though
cloud cover may persist over the coastal zones. Highs will
generally be in the 70s with some locations reaching the low 80s
across our far northern counties. A low over the northeastern
CONUS will drag a cool dry front that will enter the region late
Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing drier northerly air. This
surge of cooler air will be felt more through the night with
overnight lows dropping into the mid 40s to upper 50s by Friday
morning and Saturday morning. Ridging aloft breaks down later this
weekend as a mid to upper low/trough moves across the Plains.
This will result in the return of rain and storm chances Sunday
into early next week.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1134 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Isol showers continue to move across the region from west to east,
mainly south of I-10. These are anticipated to last through the
afternoon. The strongest convection is anticipated to remain out
offshore; therefore, TS remains out of TAFs for today.  Outside of
any -SHRA, VFR persists today with LGT and VRB winds. The next round
of showers are anticipated to cross the region later this evening
into early Wednesday, bringing an an increasing chance of TS. TS
currently remains out of the PROB30 due to conflicting guidance, but
will be monitored as the TAF cycles continue. MVFR-IFR CIGS/VIS are
conducive becoming the main flight impacts overnight into Wednesday.
After showers taper off, VFR returns with LGT and VRB winds.

CMW

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 125 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this
afternoon, and will persist through the evening and overnight hours.
This is in response of an approaching coastal trough that will
continue to lift northward along the Middle and Upper TX coast
through early Wednesday. The environment will continue to be
conducive for strong thunderstorms capable of producing hail, heavy
downpours and lightning. The best potential for strong storms will
be later this evening through early Wednesday morning. A cool front
will move through the bays and coastal waters Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, resulting in moderate offshore winds and seas up
to 4 ft (well offshore). Light onshore winds resume by early Friday.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  73  57  79  56 /  10  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  76  61  78  61 /  20  60  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  75  67  74  65 /  20  60  50   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 2 PM CST this
     afternoon for GMZ330-350-370.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...CMW
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion