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103
FXUS64 KHGX 230034
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
734 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered afternoon showers and storms may bring locally heavy
  rainfall Today.

- Gradual warming trend with temperatures reaching the upper 80s
  by the end of the work week.

- Lower rain chances Thursday through the weekend. Cannot rule out
  some stronger or severe storms on these days either.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Showers and storms are beginning to pop up this afternoon on
Doppler Radar. Expect coverage to continue to increase as we get
closer to peak daytime heating and storms take advantage of the
moist unstable airmass overhead.

We have received a decent amount of rainfall over the last few
days, so soils are leaning on the saturated side. WPC has expanded
their marginal risk area to encompass the majority of southeast
Texas today. At this time the current expectation is that across
the risk area rainfall totals will generally be in the 1-3" range.
With continued moisture advection from the Gulf, the overhead
disturbance, and the potential for storms to train over the same
areas, some locations in the risk area could receive rainfall
totals around 5-7". Confidence is low on where these higher
amounts would be observed. In any case, isolated instances of
flash flooding will be possible in urban and low lying areas and
areas that have poor drainage.

Rainfall should taper off as we get further into the evening
hours. Mid-level heights are expected to rise as ridging becomes
established. Not going to completely write off the potential for
showers and thunderstorms for Thursday, but they will be more
isolated in coverage.

Foggy conditions may develop again during the overnight hours and
continue into Friday morning. Some areas may have dense fog, which
may result in another Dense Fog Advisory during the morning
commute.

We are continuing to monitor Friday through the weekend for
another round of showers and thunderstorms, some of which could
become strong. SE Texas will have a zonal flow pattern prevailing;
however, a few ripples in the overall pattern will traverse
southeast Texas. Conditions around that time are forecast to be on
the unstable side of the spectrum. While the more favorable
dynamics border the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area, CAPE values
across SE Texas will be in around or in excess of 2000 J/kg with
shear values around 30-45 kts (both could help storms become
organized with a strong updraft). As we get closer to the weekend,
Convective Allowing Models (CAMs) should provide a better picture.

For Monday, models indicate a more robust shortwave trough
crossing the Plains and ejecting a cold front towards SE TX. Won`t
get too hung up on the details with it being later in the forecast
period, but will need to keep an eye on how far the front will
progress into SE Texas (currently forecasted to stall over the
Brazos Valley/Piney Woods) and how unstable/moist the airmass
overhead will be.

Temperatures through the period will be in the 80s through the
remainder of the week with lows in the upper 60s to 70s. By the
weekend and into next week highs will be in the upper 80s to low
90s. Lows during the weekend will be in the 70s (with isolated
locations in the upper 60s).

Bailey

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 732 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Lingering thunderstorms should taper off in the evening with
MVFR-IFR CIGS filling in overnight into early Thursday morning.
Cannot completely rule out some pockets of LIFR, especially for
any locations that got rainfall today. CIGs should clear out
Thursday morning with gusty winds setting in during the afternoon.
MVFR CIGs should fill in over the area again Thursday night.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds should continue
through the later half of the work week. A long fetch of these
southeasterly winds may bring increased seas at times. This with,
periodically higher winds may warrant caution flags at times.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible today with rain
chances decreasing into Thursday. Above normal water levels near 3.0
feet MLLW are still expect at each high tide cycle through the end
of the work week.

03/Bailey

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  66  84  69  86 /  10   0   0  20
Houston (IAH)  68  83  71  87 /  20   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  72  79  73  80 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Bailey

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion