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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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361
FXUS64 KHGX 020536
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1136 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and humid today.

- Cold front brings showers/thunderstorms on Tuesday. A few
  locally heavier thunderstorms possible.

- Autumn-like air behind the front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Areas of fog are developing across SW portions of our CWA as I
write this AFD (~11PM CST Sun). HREF soundings suggest we can
expect fog to increase in coverage as the night progresses into
the early morning hours. At a minimum, we suspect patchy dense fog
Monday morning and I wouldn`t be surprised if another Dense Fog
Advisory was warranted for parts of the CWA. Any fog should break
by mid-morning, yielding to another very warm and humid day.
Afternoon temperatures should once again rise into the 80s. A few
spots could be near records depending on the sunshine to cloud
cover ratio.

While we experience another toasty November day on Monday, a deep
layer trough over the Rockies will eject eastward into central
CONUS, inducing LL lee-side cyclogenesis in the central plains.
The resulting low will have a trailing cold front that pushes
through our area on Tuesday. The front will provide lift in an
increasingly PWAT rich and sheared environment. Bulk 0-6KM shear
values could reach the 40-50 knot range in our northern zones,
while areas closer to the coast are expected to peak in the 30-35
knot range. The most robust synoptic scale lift is still expected
to be north of our region. That said, the front coupled with the
shear may still be enough to initiate some deep convection. The
sheared environment most favors our northern counties. However,
FROPA timing in our northern zones may be earlier in the day,
limiting day time heating and peak instability. Meanwhile, our
southern counties will see a later FROPA, meaning they are likely
to have more instability but with less robust shear. Though not
the `best` set up for severe thunderstorms, I can`t help but think
the environment could favor an isolated stronger thunderstorm or
two. However, even the normally `hot` RRFS is just showing a
broken line of showers and thunderstorms. In fact, both the RRFS
and HRRR show a similar scenario, featuring scattered to numerous
showers with a few locally heavier showers and thunderstorms in
the mix.


Northwest flow will bring much drier and more seasonal
temperatures in the front`s wake. Wednesday and Thursday are
expected to feature afternoon highs in the upper 70s to near 80,
with lows generally in the 50s (60s at the coast and 40s in the
coldest Piney Woods spots). Guidance becomes varied later in the
week, with a general consensus towards increased mid/upper
troughing in the MS River Valley and Midwest. With the pattern
change comes the potential for more fronts and perhaps more rain
chances. But as the saying goes, the devil is in the details. For
now, the late week forecast features a slow decline in
temperatures and the return of some modest PoPs.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1100 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Another round of lowering flight conditions tonight, with VSBY already
dropping at some southern sites. Widespread IFR (w/ locally LIFR)
develops around 10-14Z Monday, with the potential for MVFR CIGs
to linger until late morning. At this point, conditions improve to
VFR for the afternoon with winds picking up out of the S/SE
around 10 kts. Gusts around 20 kts develop between 18-00Z Monday
for sites generally north of I-10. Afterwards, ceilings begin
dropping again between 00Z-06Z Tuesday, potentially dropping to
IFR by the very end of the forecast cycle. No precip for the time
being, but we`re watching for a FROPA Tuesday.

BSM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1100 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Patchy inland fog could impact the bays and beaches early this
morning. Light southeast winds today should become more light to
moderate from the south on Tuesday as a cold front approaches from
the northwest. The front is expected to push offshore Tuesday
afternoon, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Gusty
northwest winds are expected behind the front, with Small Craft
Advisory level conditions possible over the Gulf Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Winds should decrease on Wednesday, before
becoming more northeast on Thursday. By the weekend, building seas
and increasing northeast winds could warrant Small Craft Advisory
conditions, though confidence in the late week forecast is
somewhat low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  85  67  86  69 /   0   0   0  30
Houston (IAH)  84  69  84  72 /   0   0  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  78  74  80  75 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...BSM
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion