Skip to main content.

National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

Related quick links> 5 Day Forecast, Local Advisories, Drought Monitor, UV Forecast, Air Quality Forecast 
996
FXUS64 KHGX 281826
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
126 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Keeping an eye on NE Tx later this afternoon for storm
  development. Remnants of some of these storms could sink into
  parts of the area later this evening.

- Good chances of showers/storms across the northern half of SE Tx
  during the midweek period.

- Late April cold front, and associated storms, will push through
  the area Friday and Friday night followed by cooler and breezy
  conditions in its wake.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

For the rest of the afternoon and tonight:
We`ll be watching severe storm development along the Red
River/ArkLaTex region ahead of a frontal boundary. The tail end of
some of these storms are forecast to push into the the Piney Woods
7pm-midnight. Some localized strong-severe cells will be possible
with damaging winds & hail the primary threat. With the loss of
heating, most guidance weakens/dissipates this activity as
remnants sag south...though it should be noted that a subset of
some of the 12z HREF members indicate the potential for some
healthy cells to make it as far south as the metro area and parts
of the Galveston Bay...so let`s monitor trends as the
evening/night progresses.

Wed-Thurs:
Aforementioned front and/or outflow boundary should pull up
nearly stationary and meander across northern parts of the CWA.
Daytime heating, the weak stalled boundary, and some mid/upper
level Pacific disturbances riding up and over the ridge situated
Mexico and south Tx, will generate additional rounds of showers
and tstms during this time period. Higher coverage and rain
chances will generally be north of I-10 into the Brazos Valley and
Piney Woods. Most activity should occur in the daytime, but it`s
difficult to pin down timing on these weaker springtime
disturbances.

Fri-Fri night:
A deeper mid level trof will approach from the west and am
anticipating a low level wave to initiate along the stalled
frontal boundary. As this wave & front pushes east-southeast,
shower and thunderstorms can be expected areawide. Some might be
locally heavy considering low level focusing/focus, some upper
diffluence, and resident PW`s ~2". Training cells can`t be ruled
out.

Total forecast rains between now and Sat morning:
Accumulations in the 2-4" range expected north of I-10, tapering
down to closer to 0.75-1.0" along the immediate coast. There will
of course be localized possibilities to see those amounts occur in
an hour or two where any of the strongest cells emerge/train.

Weekend and early next week:
Precip will taper off areawide Sat morning along with much cooler
and breezy conditions in the wake of the front. Lows will be in
the 50s and highs in the 70s Sat-Sun...followed by a slow
modifying trend early in the week as onshore flow resumes. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A mix of MVFR to VFR ceilings will continue this afternoon,
accompanied by hazy conditions due to smoke from agricultural
burns in Mexico. Southerly winds of 12 to 20 kt with gusts up to
25 kt are expected through early this evening. Another round of
MVFR to IFR conditions is anticipated from this evening through
mid/late Wednesday morning. Will continue to monitor the potential
for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along and
ahead of an outflow boundary sliding southward through the region
late tonight. Confidence remains moderate; however, the estimated
window for storms appears to be from 0500 - 0900Z Wednesday,
potentially impacting CLL, UTS, CXO and IAH. A few storms could
become strong, with the potential to produce strong gusts.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected from
northwest to east- southeast toward the end of the TAF cycle.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

SE winds generally in the 13g20kt and seas in the 4-5ft range
will continue for the next several days. Let`s keep an eye on
storm development in north Texas later this afternoon as it sags
into parts of SE TX this evening. Though the vast majority of
guidance suggests this activity will die off well north of the
coast, a subset of models indicate the potential for some isolated
remnant storms to make it as far south as Galveston Bay in the
1-4am timeframe.

A cold front, and associated storms, is forecast to move into the
region Friday and off the coast Friday evening. Combination of
much cooler temperatures moving in over the warm water, NNE should
significantly ramp up into the 25-35kt range...potentially
requiring Gale Warnings into early Saturday afternoon. Seas will
build to 6-12ft.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  94  74  83  67 /  10  30  70  50
Houston (IAH)  92  75  91  72 /  10  20  40  20
Galveston (GLS)  82  77  83  74 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion