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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

319
FXUS64 KHGX 211816
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1216 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Long stretch of unseasonably warm weather with temperatures
  10-20 degrees above normal. These temperatures will be near
  daily record high values, and a few records may fall throughout
  the week.

- Daily visibility reductions due to fog and sea fog, especially
  across the bays and coastal areas. The main threat for fog will
  be during the nighttime and early morning hours, especially
  tonight through Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1204 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Onshore flow continues while a midlevel ridge over Baja
California/Western Mexico gradually migrates eastward towards Texas.
Heights within this ridge are still anticipated to reach 586-590
dam, which is particularly high for December. A weak backdoor cold
front has stalled out over the Brazos Valley and should lift north
heading into next week. Some spares showers have developed, mainly
near the coast, but on the whole activity is low. In all, we`re
still expecting highs in the 70s/lower 80s with lows in the upper
50s/lower 60s. This still puts temperatures around 10-20 degrees
above normal for December.

Water temperatures have warmed, but are still in the lower 60s
across the nearshore waters/bays while upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints
cover the majority of SE Texas. We saw large areas of dense fog and
sea fog earlier this morning, and while much of it has cleared, some
isolated lingering pockets may still be in place. As already
mentioned, there`s really no weather systems on the horizon that
will disrupt onshore flow (at least within the next 7 days... could
see a FROPA just beyond that). As a result, sea fog (and in part
inland radiation fog) will be a daily occurrence until water
temperatures can climb up to dewpoint temperatures. Tonight into
Monday morning will likely see the greatest impacts from
widespread sea fog due to the high dewpoint depression compared
to water temps, along with an east/southeasterly wind shift early
in the morning. Would not be surprised if some pockets of sea fog
persist throughout the whole day without clearing in some spots.
Monday night into Tuesday morning will probably see another period
of fairly low visibilities from fog and sea fog as models show
higher dewpoints that previously forecasted, along with higher
SREF and HREF probabilities for dense fog. As water temperatures
warm with each passing day, the extend, intensity and duration of
sea fog should decrease.

Christmas eve and Christmas day will probably see some pockets of
fog, though perhaps not as dense/widespread as days prior. Still,
this fog could technically give folks a "white" Christmas if your
definition of such is very forgiving and ignores PType entirely.
Warm and humid weather continues through Friday into the weekend.
Long range models have the next cold front *tentatively* penciled
in for around Sunday, which should give us at least one more
cool-down before the end of the year.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 602 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

IFR-MVFR conditions due to areas of patchy to dense fog and low
cigs will continue across portions of SE Texas early this morning.
Fog is expected to burn off around 15Z and cigs will gradually
rise throughout the day. Sites closer to the coasts may be slower
to improve due to sea fog over the bays and nearshore waters. S-SE
winds will remain rather light during the day, sites north of IAH
will be VRB. Another round of IFR-MVFR cigs/vis is expected Sun
night into Mon morning.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1204 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Visibility has improved this afternoon, though pockets of sea fog
are lingering in portions of the bays and nearshore Gulf waters.
Some pockets of dense fog persist, though even if they clear over
the next few hours, dense sea fog will likely fill back in this
evening into Monday morning. The potential for overnight and morning
fog will need to be monitored each night into the first half of next
week. Beyond that, conditions will be warm and relatively calm with
light southerly winds and seas 3 feet or less.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  58  76  64  79 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  66  79  65  79 /  10  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  64  74  63  74 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Monday for GMZ330-335-350-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion