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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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358
FXUS64 KHGX 100545
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1145 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cloudy and cool through Wednesday with some chances of mainly
  light rain.

- Cold front is expected Wednesday night followed by drier cooler
  weather for the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

A mid-upper level ridge will continue to move eastward across
Texas through late Tuesday, while a surface coastal trough
meanders over the Lower to Mid Texas Coast and the northwestern
Gulf waters. Rain chances will taper down overnight with areas
along and south of I-10 still expected to have light to
occasionally moderate showers and/or drizzle. The low temperatures
will be a tad bit cooler tonight, ranging in the lower 50s for
the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region, the mid to upper 50s
over the rest of the inland portions, and the upper 50s to lower
60s along the coast. On Tuesday, isolated showers and
thunderstorms are forecast, with the higher PoPs focused over
areas in and around Matagorda Bay - closest to the influence of
the coastal trough. Temperatures will be warmer with highs rising
into the lower and mid 70s on Tuesday and generally between the
mid 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday night for much of the inland
portions. Rain chances persist on Tuesday night as another mid
level disturbance moves overhead.

Although we could expected additional showers and isolated
thunderstorms on Wednesday, the chances are lower as the coastal
trough begins to move southeastward just before moving into the
Upper Texas Coast. The best chance for rain will continue to be
over areas south of I-10, closest to the trough and where the
higher moisture amounts reside. Conditions will warm up a little
further on Wednesday, as warm moist air from the Gulf converges
over Southeast Texas. Look for highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s
areawide.

There is a signal for a weak front (possibly a backdoor front)
moving through sometime Wednesday night or early Thursday along
with drier air pushing in from the north and northeast in its
wake. Not a whole lot of "cooling" happening on the forecast
behind this front other than cooler nights. The highs over the
second half of the week remain in the mid to upper 70s but the
overnight lows will drop back down into the upper 40s to mid 50s
inland for Thursday and Friday night. Rain chances could return
sometime late Saturday and Sunday as moisture returns to the area
ahead of another mid level trough and surface coastal trough.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

The data continues to trend away from widespread sub VFR
conditions tonight. Therefore, we removed the MVFR TEMPO groups
and opted for low-end VFR prevailing conditions through the
overnight. However, we cannot rule out localized MVFR cigs/vis.
Additional rounds of -SHRA/ SHRA are expected later this morning
and afternoon, primarily from IAH south to the coast. Guidance is
suggesting a more robust mid- level disturbance could approach
the region from the southwest Tuesday evening. Confidence is
relatively low regarding rainfall coverage, but there is some
potential for heavier SHRA, and even a TSRA or two, as the system
moves through Tuesday evening / night, with the highest probs of
SHRA/TSRA being from IAH down to the coast. For now, we only hint
at this via VCSH near the end of the TAF period.

Self

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Light to moderate east to northeast winds and seas of 1-3 feet
are expected through Wednesday. Winds over Matagorda Bay and
adjacent waters have been mostly between 15-20 kts with higher
gusts. Caution Flags are now in effect for that region through
Wednesday afternoon. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will
continue through at least late Wednesday. A cold front is forecast
to move through late Wednesday night or early Tuesday morning,
leading to moderate offshore winds and elevated seas of up to 5
feet on Thursday. Caution flags will likely be needed. Winds relax
and seas subside Thursday night into Friday. East to southeast
winds return during the upcoming weekend along with increasing
rain chances ahead of another cold frontal passage.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  53  74  57  79 /  20  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  55  77  61  79 /  30  30  20  10
Galveston (GLS)  63  75  67  75 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Tuesday afternoon
     for GMZ330-350-370.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cotto
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion