Skip to main content.

National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

Related quick links> 5 Day Forecast, Local Advisories, Drought Monitor, UV Forecast, Air Quality Forecast 
782
FXUS64 KHGX 150559
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1159 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A storm system will bring multiple weather hazards Sunday

- There is a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms today in our
  coastal and marine areas.

- Heavy showers and thunderstorms may result in localized flash flooding
  today, especially near the coast.

- Strong marine winds expected through Monday. Gales Warning in
  effect for Galveston Bay and the Gulf waters. Small Craft
  Advisory in effect for Matagorda Bay.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

A variety of weather hazards will effect southeast Texas on
Sunday. A mid/upper low is currently pushing into the Texas
Panhandle and drifting eastward towards Oklahoma. A strengthening
and increasingly diffluent mid/upper jet is located ahead of and
to the south of the low. These ML/UL dynamics are also helping to
foment LL cyclogenesis, with a developing sfc low over NW Texas
(south of the Panhandle). Meanwhile, a rather cold sfc high is
drifting southeastward over the Mississippi River Valley. Colder
dense air from the east is advecting westward towards the low, and
enhancing a temperature gradient across the Lone Star State. The
sfc low will track southeastward Sunday, roughly parallel to the
temperature gradient. To the north of the low`s associated warm
front, one can expect widespread light to moderate showers, with
some embedded heavier showers and thunderstorms. But those south
of the warm front will find themselves in the system`s warm
sector, where high atmospheric buoyancy coupled with a strongly
sheered and veering vertical wind profile will set the stage for
stronger thunderstorms. As discussed in my discussion yesterday,
there was some uncertainty regarding the exact placement of these
boundaries and the overall extent of the warm sector over our CWA.
But today, it appears there is increasing confidence that the
warm front will be more suppressed southward, limiting the warm
sector zones to the coast (especially near Matagorda Bay) and the
offshore Gulf waters.

Through the early morning hours on Sunday, the highest chance of
showers will be across our western counties. There is a risk
strong to severe thunderstorms in the vicinity of Matagorda Bay
overnight into Sunday morning. Already, we have observed discrete
supercells offshore the Coastal Bend this evening, with some
"side lobe-y" looking cells offshore of Matagorda. Therefore, I am
not going to be surprised if we manage to see a few waterspouts
in our Gulf waters in the vicinity of Matagorda before most people
wake up on Sunday. We also cannot rule out a tornado in this area
either. Rain and thunderstorm coverage should generally increase
over our region later this morning and into the afternoon. With
trends pointing towards a farther south warm front, it`s quite
possible that most (maybe all) areas north of I-10 will hold in
the 50s all day. There`s even some hi-res guidance suggesting our
northern zones could drop into the 40s by late afternoon. There
will likely be a steep temperature gradient south of I-10. The
warmest parts of our CWA (coastal areas of Brazoria, Matagorda,
and Jackson Counties) could top out in the 70s.

The highest risk of heavy rainfall capable of flooding will be
near the coast. However, locally heavy rainfall capable of
localized flooding cannot be ruled out farther inland. Widespread
totals of 1-2 inches are expected inland, while coastal areas are
forecast to average in the 2-4 inch range. Locally much heavier
totals are likely at the coast, with some spots possibly receiving
over 6 inches of rainfall. The highest rainfall rates are still
expected to peak 2-3"/ per hour near the coast. Therefore, flash
flooding is a concern.


Rain and thunderstorms are not the only hazards associated with
this system. Strong, gusty coastal and marine winds will continue
through Monday. There is even a Gale Warning in effect for the
majority of our marine zones for later today into Monday. Please
see the marine discussion for more details.

Colder air should push southward towards the coast as the low
exits offshore, resulting in breezy and chilly conditions Sunday
night. Lows are expected to be in the 40s north of I-10, with low
to mid 50s farther south. Yesterday, Monday was appearing murky
and quite chilly. Today, there`s increasing uncertainty regarding
how murky it will be on Monday. Some of the guidance is suggesting
a shorter isentropic lift period and more dry air than initially
expected, opening the door to breaking clouds and more sunshine.
If the sun breaks out by early/mid afternoon, then we may make a
run for the 60 degree mark. But if clouds prove more resilient,
then I could see us struggling to warm past the mid 50s. Monday
night will be chilly, with widespread lows in the 40s. Areas near
the coast and within the heart of Houston`s urban heat island may
remain in the 50s.

We still anticipate a warming trend beyond Monday. By Wednesday
and Thursday, most of the region is expected to be in the 70s.
Couldn`t rule out a few locations reaching 80 by week`s end.

Self




&&

.AVIATION...
(03Z TAF Amendment)
Issued at 957 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

VFR prevails, though winds remain elevated and gusty across the
region. Current radar shows scattered showers across the region.
These showers continue their westward movement, impacting terminals
through the overnight hours. CIGS gradually lower throughout this
TAF period as a low pressure system approaches from the west,
lowering to MVFR by early/mid- morning, then IFR by the afternoon
hours. Current guidance shows CIGS in the 600-800ft level for
tomorrow afternoon, but there is a chance some sites dip into LIFR
territory. Ahead of this low pressure system, moderate to
occasionally heavy SHRA is anticipated to impact terminals through
early tomorrow morning and into the afternoon. The highest chances
for TS activity remains tomorrow afternoon. Within the strongest
storms, expect heavy downpours, gusts, and frequent lightning. TS
activity should taper off by the late afternoon/evening, but SHRA is
expected to linger well into tomorrow evening.

MLG


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 957 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Showers and thunderstorms along with strong winds are expected
Sunday. The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of gales and
waterspouts. Winds will be easterly, averaging 20-25 knots with
higher gusts through early afternoon. Later in the way, winds are
expected to increase while backing northeast to north. There is
some uncertainty regarding the timing of this turn. Frequent gusts
to gale force are expected in the Gulf later today through Monday
morning and possibly into the afternoon. For Galveston Bay, gusts
to gale force are expected this afternoon into tonight, especially
in the lower bay. Gulf offshore seas over 10 feet are likely, with
waters in the bays become quite rough. Conditions will gradually
improve beyond Monday. However, hazardous marine conditions could
linger into Wednesday, especially over the Gulf.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  70  53  60  48 /   0  70 100  60
Houston (IAH)  68  55  64  50 /   0  30 100  80
Galveston (GLS)  69  65  72  58 /   0  10 100  80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 3 PM CST Monday for TXZ214-
     235>238-313-335>338.

     Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for TXZ436>439.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Monday for GMZ330.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Sunday for GMZ335-355-375.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 3 PM CST Monday for GMZ335.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ350-370.

     Gale Warning from 6 PM Sunday to 3 PM CST Monday for GMZ350-370.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM Sunday to 3 PM CST Monday for GMZ355-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...MLG
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion