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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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791
FXUS64 KHGX 151638
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1138 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Locally heavy rainfall expected to today. Localized flooding
  likely. Have multiple ways to receive weather warnings today.

- Isolated strong thunderstorms capable of 40-45 MPH wind gusts
  possible.

- Rain chances fall and temperatures rise later this week and
  into next week. Seasonably hot and humid by Friday and the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1042 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

The feature with the most influence on the SE Texas atmosphere is
an area of low pressure situated roughly over central Texas. The
low is broad at the surface, perhaps more of a trough. But the low
becomes more well defined with height, especially in the 950 to
500 MB level. The low is advecting deep tropical moisture from the
Gulf, while also helping to provide lift and some added
instability. This is resulting in another day featuring rounds of
showers and thunderstorms, some of which have been heavy. The
strongest LL jet associated with the low remains to our west.
However, we couldn`t rule out enough wind shear for a strong
thunderstorm or two.

The pattern will be in flux after today. The aforementioned low
will pull away and wane in influence starting tomorrow. In
addition, mid/upper heights will gradually build, as ridging
becomes the dominant force in the synoptic pattern. Thus, expect
decreasing shower/thunderstorm coverage and increasing
temperatures beyond today. I suspect we will have some isolated to
scattered shower/thunderstorm activity on Thursday (especially in
our western zones). But by Friday and the weekend, rain chances
become quite low. Many inland spots may be reaching the mid-90s
(seasonal) by the weekend, and the upper-90s (near or a tad above
normal) by early/mid next week.

Self


&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

SHRA/TSRA have develop this morning near LBX, GLS, LVJ, and HOU.
These will generally remain near these sites for the next couple
hours then spread northward through the rest of the terminals
through the day. After 21-22z, a few lingering SHRA and maybe a
TSRA remains possible through 02z. VFR conditions are expected
thereafter, though CLL may see MVFR cigs after 10z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1042 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected today. Locally strong
thunderstorms capable of 35-40 knot winds, waterspouts, and
locally higher seas cannot be ruled out. Beyond today, the pattern
becomes gradually drier and hotter. Winds through the weekend
expected to be southeast 10-15 knots. Could have a few higher
non-thunderstorm gusts over 20 kts overnight tonight and into
tomorrow morning, especially for areas in the vicinity and
offshore of Matagorda. Could see a similar set up Thursday night
into Friday morning as well. Winds become more south, possibly
southwest at times, early next week. Seas should generally be 2-4
feet. Seas well offshore could approach 5 feet at times,
especially Thursday night into early Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  72  88  74  90 /  20  40  20  20
Houston (IAH)  75  90  78  92 /  20  40   0  20
Galveston (GLS)  83  90  84  90 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion