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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

397
FXUS64 KHGX 301835
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
135 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate heat risk will continue today and persist each day
through Thursday. Peak heat index values between 102-107F (39-42C).

- Moderate to major heat will be possible Friday and into the
  Fourth of July weekend. Peak heat index values between 105-110F
  (40-43C).


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Our main weather driver is a mid-level high ridge that has now
centered itself across the ECONUS placing southeast Texas on the
southwestern periphery of this ridge. With the ridge now shifted to
the northeast, this has allowed for PWATs to increase to 1.5" to
1.7" today. Weak impulses on the periphery of this ridge have been
enough to produce streamer showers earlier this morning. While these
showers have moved inland, they have kept their overall strength
resulting in locations generally west of I-45 seeing up to 0.25" of
rainfall. These showers are moving along keeping rainfall amounts
isolated and light.

PWATs peak on late Wednesday and Thursday to near 2.00" right at the
same time that a few weak disturbances round out the periphery of
the ridge allowing for the daily convection and seabreeze storms to
have more moisture to wring out. The focus for Wednesday afternoon`s
rain chances (20-30%) will be greatest closer to the Golden
Triangle, though there is lower confidence across the Houston metro.
We will continue to monitor CAM guidance to see if PoPs need to be
increased with the next forecast package. By Thursday, overall rain
chances increase to (30-50%) across the Piney Woods, across the
Houston metro, and towards Matagorda Bay. Much like with the
previous forecast package, if this plume of higher PWATs ends up
moving more closer to the Houston metro, then rain chances may need
to be further increased. We will continue with these afternoon
convection/seabreeze storms through the Fourth of July weekend.
While not a complete washout of a forecast if you`re planning for
outdoor activities, it would be prudent to have an alternate plan
for a short period while a shower moves through.

The HeatRisk will continue to be the main threat outside of rain
chances. Peak heat index values range between 102-107F (39-42C) with
values increasing to 105-110F (40-43C) for this weekend. The highest
values will likely be observed in locations that do not see a
seabreeze shower move overhead. We continue to monitor the forecast
trend to see if Heat Advisories may be needed for the holiday
weekend. Frequent hydrating and shade/AC breaks will be key to
beating the heat.

With respect to the rip current threat, the high rip current risk
has been allowed to expire. With lower wave periods moving in, the
risk drops to a moderate risk, but we will continue to re-
evaluate this overnight for any additional issuances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Brief periods of MVFR remain possible through mid/late morning
(13-15Z) as very patchy low level stratus and residual haze from
Saharan dust fill the air. Thereafter, VFR is expected to prevail
through much of the daytime and into the evening. Still expecting
a few isolated showers and storms this afternoon as the sea-breeze
tries to get going. Kept the mention of precipitation out of the
TAFs at this time due to low probabilities (20% or lower). South
to southeast winds will persist through the period, with sustained
wind speeds generally below 15 knots. However, a few gusts up to
20 knots remains possible, especially by mid/late afternoon.
Patchy low level stratus will once again occur late tonight and
overnight, with intermittent VFR/MVFR conditions at a few sites into
early Wednesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Gentle to moderate breezes will vary from a southerly to
southeasterly direction with 2-3 ft seas along with daily chances
for scattered showers/thunderstorms, primarily over the nearshore
waters and bays.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  95  76  94 /  10   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)  78  95  78  94 /   0  10  10  30
Galveston (GLS)  83  89  82  89 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Enriquez
MARINE...Enriquez

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion