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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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730
FXUS64 KHGX 250338
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1038 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scorching hot temperatures, especially Sunday throughout the
  upcoming work week with temperatures in the upper 90s/100s and
  heat indices of 104-112F. Heat Advisories Likely.

- Patchy fog possible during the early to mid-morning hours for at
  least the next few days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

The hot topic over the next several days will be...well the hot
temperatures. Things really heat up Sunday and beyond where
Southeast Texas will feel like a sizzling plate of fajitas...minus
the deliciousness. There will be some occasional rain chances along
with patchy fog to talk about, but we`re not gonna sweat the small
stuff and focus mainly on the heat. A ~598 dam mid-level high (let`s
just coin this as a heatdome) was situated near the Four Corners
earlier this afternoon. With Southeast Texas being on the eastern
edge of it, we were still able to squeeze out a few showers due to
lingering moisture. Going into Saturday, the heatdome will expand
and strengthen to ~600 dam leading to an increase in subsidence
(sinking air) and drier air (PW values decreasing near the 10th
percentile: ~1.36"). As a result, rain chances will be slim to none,
but the heat will be on the rise. Expect high temperatures mainly in
the mid 90s with heat indices in the 100-105F range Saturday.

Going into Sunday, PW values begin to increase a bit closer to the
25th percentile (~1.60"). The combination of that, an embedded
shortwave underneath the ridge, sea breeze, and daytime heating
"should" be feasible for a few showers to develop in the afternoon.
Beyond that, PW values decrease again closer to the 10th percentile
through at least midweek. This coincides with 850mb temperatures
increasing to above the 90th percentile and occasionally near the
99th percentile. That means that triple digits are on the horizon
for the next work week...and we`re talking about just the air
temperatures. When we factor in the humidity, it`ll feel like it`s
well into the 100s and likely over our threshold for Heat Advisories
(heat indices greater than 108F) as early as Sunday. Not
expecting much relief during the overnight hours either with low
temperatures only bottoming out in the upper 70s to low 80s. While
we`re on the sad news train, this is a good time to mention that
patchy fog will be possible essentially every morning in the pre-
dawn hours.

Any time we have a stretch of hot temperatures like this, my first
thought is how long is it going to last. Whelp, we are moving
towards August which climatologically is our hottest month of the
year. Most long-range model guidance holds us steady in the 100s,
but there is a non-zero chance for at least part of the area to see
some relief. Some long-range deterministic models depict a backdoor
frontal boundary approaching from the northeast late next week as
the mid-level high retreats westward. This hypothetically should
increase rain chances, but there is a lot of uncertainty that far
out. As always, we`ll continue to monitor trends.

With heat indices expected to be near or above Heat Advisory
criteria as early as Sunday, please keep heat safety at the top of
your minds for any plans that you make (especially if outdoors).
Know the signs of heat-related illnesses, stay hydrated (with
water), take frequent breaks from the heat, wear loose/light-colored
clothing and sunscreen, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS LOOK before you
LOCK your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the
ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for
their paws.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Isolated showers are possible near terminals through early this
evening; otherwise, a dry pattern is anticipated with light to
moderate south to southeast winds. Patchy fog will be possible at
some inland terminals by sunrise. Low confidence exist for MVFR
cigs at KCLL and KUTS late tonight through early Saturday morning.
However, confidence in occurrence is low. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected through most of the TAF cycle.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

A period of benign marine conditions continues with light to
occasionally moderate southerly/southwesterly winds and 2-4 ft seas
prevailing well into next week.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  95  75  96 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  78  96  77  97 /   0   0   0  20
Galveston (GLS)  83  91  83  90 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion