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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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771
FXUS64 KHGX 021130
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot weather will continue with peak heat index values reaching 100-
110F (38-43C) through the holiday weekend. Heat safety should
continued to be practiced over the next several days.

- Daily isolated showers look to continue during the morning hours
  with scattered/isolated storms developing in the afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

The larger weather pattern continues to be dominated by the stout
ridge across the eastern U.S. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
were seen yesterday evening across the Western Pineywoods and easter
Southeast Texas regions. Current conditions show decaying outflow
and light showers moving west of the I-45 corridor.

Overall, the forecast continues to remain steady, mainly due to the
strength and position of the mid-level ridge. This afternoon is
expected to be the peak of moisture availability as a weak impulse
moves into the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms look to
develop across the southeastern two-thirds of the forecast area
along the seabreeze boundary. Shower coverage will be closer to
numerous across the northeastern Golden Triangle along our border
with Lake Charles. Low chances for rain return Friday and Saturday,
but scattered showers and storms will be possible Sunday and Monday
afternoons as the mid-level ridge looks to break down over the
eastern U.S.

Heat continues to be the main talking point for the region. Latest
guidance has slightly reduced the coverage of some of the higher
values between 108-110F (42-43C), but isolated locations may still
reach this range Friday and Saturday. With this weekend doubling as
a holiday weekend and a match day, consideration for a Heat Advisory
will need to be maintained. If you plan to spend the day outdoors,
make sure you wear light cloths, apply sunscreen and stay hydrated
by drinking plenty of water. Also take plenty of breaks from the
heat by seeking shade/AC.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

VFR conditions and light winds are currently in place across all
terminals. Streamer shower activity this morning may result in
brief MVFR ceilings for the coastal locations. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop late
this morning along the coast and move inland through the day. Any
convection that does develop should wane around 00Z. Will maintain
the current PROB30 groups for TSRA with this TAF cycle. Have
introduced a TEMPO group Friday morning to account for a medium
chance (per the latest HREF probs) for MVFR ceilings from 09-12Z.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Light S/SE winds around 10 knots and calm seas of 1 to 3 feet are
expected throughout the next several days. Light streamer showers
could develop over the Gulf waters each morning. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms could develop along the sea breeze in the
afternoon near the coastline and bays. The best chance for isolated
to scattered thunderstorms will be this afternoon and then Sunday
and Monday afternoon. &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  95  77  96 /  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  77  94  78  95 /  10  20   0  20
Galveston (GLS)  82  89  82  89 /  10  20   0  20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  93  76  94  76 /  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  93  77  94  78 /  50  10  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  89  82  89  82 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...Castillo
MARINE...Williams

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion