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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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776
FXUS64 KHGX 100431
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1131 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Higher chance of showers/thunderstorms today, especially in
  southern/coastal counties. Strong downpours and instances of
  locally heavy rainfall likely.

- Drier and hotter pattern to take hold by Tuesday and beyond,
  especially this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1121 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

The forecast has not changed significantly, and thus neither will
this forecast discussion (at least the first half). Hot weather
and daily showers/storms are still anticipated through early next
week. Same pattern remains in place with ridging situated over the
Four Corners and off the East Coast. A weakness between both has
allow for scattered showers and storms these last several days,
and will continue to do so today as well. Most of this activity
should occur during the daytime along the sea breeze, mainly over
the southern 2/3rds of our CWA where CAM guidance has suggested
deep tropical moisture to be present (2-2.5 inches). Storms over
the last few days have been pulsy in nature, slow moving and
vertically stacked with suboptimal organization. Regardless, we
have seen gusty winds, frequently lightening and strong downpours
with storms on previous days, thus they cannot be ruled out for
today either. Once again, areas that don`t receive rainfall will
see fairly hot weather with highs in the 90s and heat indicies in
the triple digits. Patchy fog may also develop in spots during the
early morning hours as well.

Rain chances will tapper off into Tuesday as ridging builds across
the Gulf. 850mb temperatures rise again, bringing hotter conditions
through the end of the work week. Next weekend, the ridge is progged
to shift north into the SE CONUS and intensify. Midlevel heights are
forecasted to reach 596-598 dam over SE Texas by this point, putting
them over the 99th climatological percentile (NAEFS). LREF & NBM
ensembles suggest greater chances for triple digit high temperatures
occuring on these days, as well as early next week. The overall heat
stress will still be contingent on how efficient mixing is each
afternoon, though heat related hazard headlines cannot be ruled out
(Wednesday at the earliest, more likely this weekend).

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

For the 10/00Z TAF update, yet another round of convection is
expected through the 10/18-23Z timeframe, delivering some
VCTS/-TSRA to most inland terminals (Gulf moisture will keep early
VCSH for KGLS/KLBX). Until then, southerly surface winds will
slacken below or near 5 kts through 10/15Z before regaining speed
as onshore flow and VCSH/VCTS convection returns. Some patchy FG
development potential remains by 10/12-15Z.

Cassel

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1121 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Light to moderate onshore winds and seas of 2-4 feet are expected
throughout the next several days. Chances for scattered showers and
storms will be greatest during the early morning through early
afternoon hours today. Rain chances taper off Tuesday as temperature
start to heat up once again. Winds and seas increase slightly during
the second half of the work week. Caution flags may be warranted at
times.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  95  75  96  76 /  20  10  20  20
Houston (IAH)  94  78  92  79 /  50  10  60  10
Galveston (GLS)  90  81  89  84 /  40  30  70   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Cassel
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion