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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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200
FXUS64 KHGX 101025
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
525 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing heat risk with "feels-like" temperatures around
  97-107 degrees (36-42 Celsius).

- Risk of Rip currents across Gulf-facing beaches throughout the
  week.

- Isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorm chances daily,
  mostly during the afternoon hours. Chances will increase Sunday
  into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Subtropical ridging is anticipated to keep warn, humid weather in
place throughout the remainder of the week. Onshore winds should
remain firmly remain in place due to a Bermuda high off the eastern
sea board. Midlevel heights are forecast to be around 590-593 dam,
above the 90th climatological percentile for this time of the year.
NAEFS has indicated that 200mb mean geopotential heights will also
be strongest around the weekend. Subsidence should largely inhibit
storm development, though ample PWs of 1.4-2.3 inches and modest
afternoon heating should still allow for isolated daily showers,
especially during the afternoon along the sea breeze, with a
thunderstorm or two as well. Highs are forecasted to reach the
upper 80s to mid 90s (31-36 Celsius) with lows in the 70s to lower
80s (21-27 Celsius). Even with mixing, afternoon dewpoints are
still anticipated to remain in the 70s (20-26 Celsius) each day,
resulting in very humid weather. Max heat indicies are forecasted
to reach 97-107 degrees (36-42 Celsius) during the afternoon. WBGT
Heat stress is forecasted to be high with each day as well.
Sensitive groups or those not acclimated to the summer like
weather of Houston will be at a greater risk of experiencing heat
illness. Cannot rule out the potential for heat advisories,
especially this weekend. If you plan to spend time outdoors, make
sure to drink plenty of water to stay hydrated. If you plan on
heading to the beach to beat this heat, make sure to watch out for
rip currents!

We should see the weather pattern change heading into next week,
as a mid/upper level trough digs into the Plains. This feature
should shove the subtropical ridge further south, lowering heights
over SE Texas. In addition, this feature is also progged to push
a cold front towards SE Texas. Model guidance has this cold front
reaching the Brazos Valley early Tuesday morning. Scattered
showers/storms will be possible as the front pushes southward
towards the coast. As we head deeper into summer, the possibility
of fronts reaching/pushing through SE Texas generally declines,
thus there is still potential to see some changes in the fronts
positioning these next several days. Regardless, declining
temperatures/heat stress and rising rain chances are anticipated
for the first half of next week.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 525 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

MVFR ceilings prevail at a few of the northern terminals early
this morning with VFR ceilings elsewhere. MVFR ceilings may
briefly develop further south through 15Z before lifting back to
VFR for the rest of the day. Southeasterly winds will be in the
8-12 kt range with gusts up to 20 kt at times through the
afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered streamer showers are
moving through the area early this morning. Additional isolated
showers with potential for an isolated thunderstorm or two will
be possible in the late morning to afternoon hours. These have
been covered with PROB30`s in this TAF package. Rain activity
dissipates after 00Z with MVFR ceilings developing again at least
for some of the Houston metro terminals and the northern terminals
overnight into Thursday morning. Some isolated pockets of patchy
fog with reduced visibilities cannot be ruled out either.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds are expected throughout
the rest of the work week with seas of 2 to 5 feet. Caution flags
may be warranted at times, especially this weekend as seas near 6 to
7 feet offshore. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible
each day with rain chances rising over the weekend into early next
week. There will also be a moderate to high risk of rip currents
across Gulf facing beaches through early next week.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  91  76  93  77 /  20  10  10   0
Houston (IAH)  91  78  92  78 /  20  10  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  88  82  88  82 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion