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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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417
FXUS64 KHGX 141820
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
120 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A gradual warming trend continues this weekend, with highs
  reaching the mid to upper 80s Sunday.

- Another cooldown is on the way after the next cold front, which
  will be accompanied by showers/storms late Sunday. Strong storms
  are possible along the frontal boundary.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected in the wake of the front
  through Monday: strong northerly winds (gusting to 40+ kt),
  elevated seas (10-15 ft), and potential for negative tides. A
  Gale Watch is in effect Sunday night through Monday afternoon.

- Monitoring the potential for elevated to critical fire weather
  conditions on Monday as very dry air overlaps with gusty
  northerly winds. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Monday.

- A Wind Advisory is in effect Sunday morning through Monday
  afternoon for all of Southeast TX.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

It`s Pi Day (Pi Day, gotta get down on Pi Day...I`m so sorry).
So, in classic Texas fashion, we`re going to have slices of
multiple seasons throughout the forecast period:

Today-Sunday Afternoon: Slice of Spring
Sunday Evening/Night-Tuesday Night: Slice of Winter
Wednesday through the work week: Slice of Spring
Approaching next weekend: Adding a little garnish of Summer

Personally, I opted for peach cobbler but ehh...beggars can`t be
choosers I guess. Southwesterly winds aloft continue to advect in
warmer temperatures aloft with 850mb temperatures firmly in the 90th
percentile. As a result, high temperatures this afternoon will top
out in upper 70s to low 80s. That warming trend continues into
Sunday as 850mb temperatures approach the 97-99th percentiles
leading to high temperatures peaking in the mid to upper 80s. I
wouldn`t be entirely surprised to see a few spots in the Brazos
Valley flirt with the 90F mark.

Before that though, winds will gradually increase overnight as a SW-
NE oriented LLJ strengthens (stretches from TX to the Upper
Midwest). This is due to the pressure gradient tightening as surface
low pressure begins to develop in the Central Plains in response to
an upper level trough sweeping through the central CONUS. 35-45 kt
winds aloft persist into the afternoon, and some of those stronger
winds will mix down to the surface. As a result, a Wind Advisory
goes into effect starting at 10 AM Sunday morning and remains in
effect through Monday afternoon (more on that in a bit). As the
surface low drifts eastward on Sunday, it will drag a cold front
through Southeast TX in the late afternoon/evening hours. There will
be a thin band line of showers/storms along the frontal boundary as
it pushes through.

Moisture availability is still in question, but convergence along
the front does gradually increase moisture along the frontal
boundary as it makes its way towards the coast. So, like all of the
12Z CAM guidance reflects, this line of showers/storms will
gradually expand westward as it moves southward through our area.
There is potential for a few storms along this line to become strong
to severe. Moisture availability is the only question mark. We have
the instability + lapse rates, we have the shear, and we have quite
the lifting mechanism right along the front. If a storm manages to
become strong to severe, strong winds and hail would be the primary
hazards...definitely moreso the strong winds. As a result, SPC has
outlined portions of the Piney Woods in a slight risk (level 2 of 5)
for severe weather. Everywhere else in Southeast TX is outlined in a
marginal risk (level 1 of 5).

This will be a very progressive front, so flooding is not a concern
at all. In fact, those that do get rain will be lucky to get more
than a tenth of an inch. We did the math yesterday and discovered
that the front will be traveling 35-40 mph. That puts the front in
Crockett around 5 PM and off the coast by 9 PM (give or take an
hour).

There are multiple hazards to discuss in the wake of the front, so
let`s start with the inland hazards. Sunday night into Monday
morning, there will be a strong LLJ overhead in the 50-60 kt range.
Some of these winds will mix down to the surface leading to
sustained northerly winds in the 20-25 mph range with gusts peaking
above 40 mph. The Wind Advisory extends into Monday afternoon for
this reason. The strongest wind gusts will occur overnight into
Monday morning. With how gusty these winds are expected to be,
localized power outages (especially near the coast) will be
possible. These gusty winds will overlap with very dry air (RH
values in the upper teens to low 20s), which will lead to elevated
to critical fire weather conditions on Monday. [See Fire Weather
discussion below for more details]

Additionally, these strong winds will create hazardous marine
conditions both ahead of and in the wake of the front ranging from
increased risk of rip currents on Sunday to gale force winds,
elevated seas, and abnormally low water levels in the bays during
low tide cycles late Sunday into Monday. [See Marine discussion down
below for more details]

Temperatures behind the front will be some of the coolest weather
we`ve seen since early February! High temperatures on Monday are
expected to be in the 50s...the last time that this happened was on
February 1st (over 40 days ago). Sunday night and Monday night will
feature low temperatures in the 30s/40s with the potential for a
light freeze Monday night in portions of the Piney Woods. A rather
robust upper level high begins to build into the southwestern CONUS
around midweek (see CPC`s temperature outlook to see all of the
red). We`ll go on a warming trend next week as well with
temperatures approaching the upper 80s by the end of the work week.
For absolutely no reason at all, I`m going to mention that the
average first 90F day for the City of Houston is May 6th, but we
did get a 90F day in mid March last year! Again...I mentioned
that for no reason at all...maybe!

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 547 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

MVFR cloud deck has developed along/east of the I-45 corridor
early this morning and will continue to linger over multiple
terminals over the next few hours. Ceilings will lift by 15-16Z as
southeasterly winds increase. Expect sustained winds in the 10-15
kt range with gusts in the 20-25 kt range through the afternoon.
Winds remain elevated overnight (generally around 10 kt), which
will inhibit fog development. Widespread MVFR ceilings will filter
in from the west after 06Z and prevail through Sunday morning.
Expect another round of gusty southerly winds on Sunday.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Light southeasterly winds will prevail through this evening. Winds
and seas begin to increase overnight into Sunday in advance of an
approaching cold front. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory will go
into effect on Sunday morning. These increasing winds also increases
the potential for strong rip currents on Sunday, so be advised if
you have plans to head to the beach.

A cold front will push offshore Sunday evening with a thin band of
showers/storms along the boundary. Expect strong northerly winds (30-
35 kt with 40-45 kt gusts) and elevated seas (10-15 ft) in the wake
of this front through Monday. A Gale Watch has been issued from
Sunday evening into Monday afternoon.

Those heading to the beaches or out on the waters for Spring Break
should be advised of this period of hazardous marine conditions late
Sunday into Monday. Typically inflatables are discouraged by beach
patrol with offshore winds. Additionally, PETSS guidance is
indicating the potential for abnormally low water levels during
times of low tide on Monday. Winds and seas gradually subside going
into Monday night with onshore flow returning by Tuesday and
prevailing through the end of the work week.

Batiste

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A surge of very dry air will filter into Southeast TX in the
wake of a cold front that pushes through late Sunday. This will lead
to a period of elevated to critical fire weather conditions on
Monday as very dry air (minimum RH values in the upper teens to low
20s) and gusty northerly winds (gusts up to 40-45 mph) prevail
into the afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for most
of Southeast TX on Monday. Drier air sticks around on Tuesday, but
winds will be lighter and southeasterly. RH values will begin to
increase mid week into the end of the work week as onshore winds
prevail and low level moisture recovers.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  65  88  40  54 /   0   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)  66  86  45  56 /   0  10  30   0
Galveston (GLS)  68  76  50  58 /   0  10  50   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 6 PM CDT Monday for TXZ163-
     164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
     436>439.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for TXZ176-177-195>199-210>214-226-227-235>238-313-335>338.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ330-
     335-350-355-370-375.

     Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion