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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

527
FXUS64 KHGX 101101
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
501 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cloudy and cool through Wednesday with some chances of mainly
  light rain.

- Cold front is expected Wednesday night followed by drier cooler
  weather for the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

A mid-upper level ridge will continue to move eastward across
Texas through late Tuesday, while a surface coastal trough
meanders over the Lower to Mid Texas Coast and the northwestern
Gulf waters. Rain chances will taper down overnight with areas
along and south of I-10 still expected to have light to
occasionally moderate showers and/or drizzle. The low temperatures
will be a tad bit cooler tonight, ranging in the lower 50s for
the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region, the mid to upper 50s
over the rest of the inland portions, and the upper 50s to lower
60s along the coast. On Tuesday, isolated showers and
thunderstorms are forecast, with the higher PoPs focused over
areas in and around Matagorda Bay - closest to the influence of
the coastal trough. Temperatures will be warmer with highs rising
into the lower and mid 70s on Tuesday and generally between the
mid 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday night for much of the inland
portions. Rain chances persist on Tuesday night as another mid
level disturbance moves overhead.

Although we could expected additional showers and isolated
thunderstorms on Wednesday, the chances are lower as the coastal
trough begins to move southeastward just before moving into the
Upper Texas Coast. The best chance for rain will continue to be
over areas south of I-10, closest to the trough and where the
higher moisture amounts reside. Conditions will warm up a little
further on Wednesday, as warm moist air from the Gulf converges
over Southeast Texas. Look for highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s
areawide.

There is a signal for a weak front (possibly a backdoor front)
moving through sometime Wednesday night or early Thursday along
with drier air pushing in from the north and northeast in its
wake. Not a whole lot of "cooling" happening on the forecast
behind this front other than cooler nights. The highs over the
second half of the week remain in the mid to upper 70s but the
overnight lows will drop back down into the upper 40s to mid 50s
inland for Thursday and Friday night. Rain chances could return
sometime late Saturday and Sunday as moisture returns to the area
ahead of another mid level trough and surface coastal trough.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 405 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Showers from the southwest are expected to move through the
region today. Rainfall will generally be light with VFR FLs,
though occasional periods moderate rainfall could bring VIS
reductions, especially during this afternoon. Shower coverage
lulls this evening, though another round of moderate rainfall will
develop overnight into Wednesday morning. MVFR-IFR CIGs/fog may
develop during the early morning as a result.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Light to moderate east to northeast winds and seas of 1-3 feet
are expected through Wednesday. Winds over Matagorda Bay and
adjacent waters have been mostly between 15-20 kts with higher
gusts. Caution Flags are now in effect for that region through
Wednesday afternoon. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will
continue through at least late Wednesday. A cold front is forecast
to move through late Wednesday night or early Tuesday morning,
leading to moderate offshore winds and elevated seas of up to 5
feet on Thursday. Caution flags will likely be needed. Winds relax
and seas subside Thursday night into Friday. East to southeast
winds return during the upcoming weekend along with increasing
rain chances ahead of another cold frontal passage.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  57  79  56 /  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  77  61  79  61 /  30  20  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  75  67  75  65 /  20  40  20   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 2 PM CST this
     afternoon for GMZ330-350-370.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cotto
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion