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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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999
FXUS64 KHGX 261703
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1203 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory continues today. Continued hot and humid
  conditions are expected on Thursday, but increased cloud cover
  and rain chances has lowered the chance for Heat Advisory
  conditions. Regardless, continue to use heat safety practices.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible tonight with
  scattered activity expected Thursday into Friday morning.

- Isolated showers and storms possible through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Summer heat continues today as abundant sunshine will lead to
afternoon temperatures reaching into the 100-103 degree range for
most areas along and north of I-10 with areas closer to the coast
remaining in the mid to upper 90s. High dew points will bring heat
indices into the 107-110 degree range for most of the region today,
thus the Heat Advisory remains in place today across the area.

For the first time in awhile, we are looking at the potential for
some late evening/overnight showers and thunderstorms to move into
the area from the north. The dominate high pressure that has been
over the region the past several days is beginning to shift a little
further westward to the Four Corner region. This will bring
northwesterly flow aloft over Texas with embedded disturbances
moving through the flow. The first of these weak disturbances will
push through tonight into Thursday bringing that chance showers
and thunderstorms. As of right now, coverage looks to be fairly
isolated tonight, and remaining mostly north of the I-10 Corridor
- but, I wouldn`t be shocked to see a more scattered coverage of
storms after the past several days of heating and abundant
moisture (PWATs nearing 2-2.2"). Expecting to see an increase in
shower and thunderstorm coverage during the day on Thursday as
daytime heating and passing vort maxes aid in storm development.
Lingering shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible into
Thursday night, especially along and south of I-10, but the bulk
of the activity should push off the coast for Friday. While severe
thunderstorms are not likely the next few days, any thunderstorm
that develops could become strong, producing gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall. Additional isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible over the weekend as a weak
disturbance moves westward across the northern Gulf.

Turning the focus back onto heat - tomorrow will be a tricky
forecast for the need of a Heat Advisory as it will depend largely
on amount of cloud cover and rainfall coverage. Less activity = more
likely to need a Heat Advisory, more activity = less likely to need
a Heat Advisory. Have opted to not put out a Heat Advisory for
tomorrow at this time, but if forecast trends are for less
shower/thunderstorm activity, then an Advisory may be issued during
later shifts. Regardless, summer-time heat with temperatures in the
90s (and approaching 100 degrees in spots) means to continue to take
precautions against heat-related illnesses: stay hydrated and take
breaks if working outside. Temperatures will continue to slowly cool
(though still hot) through the weekend with high temperatures
generally in the mid 90s.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

VFR prevails across the region at this hour with west-southwest
winds around 10 kt. A scattered cumulus field around 4000 ft is
expected to expand in area through the afternoon with winds becoming
more southerly by mid afternoon. We`ll be watching the potential for
convection to approach from the north later tonight mainly in the
form of showers and will have VCSH after midnight for CLL/CXO/UTS.
Showers become more likely at IAH/HOU prior to sunrise and may be
accompanied by TEMPO MVFR cigs but probs are a little low to include
at this time. Of greater concern will be an increasing potential for
TSRA Thursday afternoon as a weak disturbance approaches and
convergence along a weak sea breeze develops late in the day. We`ll
include a PROB30 for TSRA from 21-00Z at IAH to account for this
potential.

Dunn

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

South to southwesterly flow around 10-15kt will continue through
Friday morning with light onshore flow then persisting through the
weekend along with seas around 1-3ft. Winds in the early morning
hours could be more west to north at times. There will be increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters late
Thursday into Friday with isolated chances continuing into this
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  79 100  76  97 /  30  30  30  20
Houston (IAH)  81 100  79  96 /  20  30  40  30
Galveston (GLS)  84  92  82  91 /  10  20  40  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...Dunn
MARINE...Fowler

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion