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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

163
FXUS64 KHGX 060017
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
617 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today will mark the beginning of a warming trend, though this
  first warmer day will only see temperatures slightly higher than
  Wednesday. More marked increases in temps will kick in through
  the weekend and into the first half of next week.

- Upper portions of Galveston Bay will see some negative water
  levels around low tide cycles into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1059 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Ridging building aloft will lead to a period of warming
temperatures and continued dry conditions through the weekend.
Afternoon high temperatures will rise into the mid-60s today and
then mid-70s on Friday with high temperatures continuing to be in
the 70s through the first half of next week. Overnight
temperatures tonight will drop into the 40s, and then upper 40s to
low 50s Friday and Saturday night. Southerly winds return by
Sunday allowing for warmer overnight temperatures in the mid to
upper 50s (and some low 60s in the Houston Metro and along the
coast) nightly Sunday night through midweek next week.

Abundant sunshine and light northwesterly to westerly winds will
keep moisture low across SE Texas through the start of the weekend
with afternoon RH values will be dropping into the 20-30% range
inland (30-50% along the coast). While winds will be light and RH
values not dropping below critical fire weather thresholds, please
be mindful of any open flames/things that spark as recent hard
freezes likely led to vegetation death, which could lead to quick
fire starts. A light southerly flow returns by Sunday allowing
for an increase in moisture, improving afternoon minimum RH values
by 20-30% across the region.

You`ll notice in the first paragraph of this discussion that a
lot of my certainty drops by midweek next week. That is due to an
expected upper-level disturbance that will pass through Texas
Tuesday into Wednesday of next week. Shortwave troughs may begin
to pass through the area as early as Tuesday morning leading to
increased chance of showers and thunderstorms with increasing
chances through the day as the cold front associated with upper-
level disturbance moves through the region. A bit too early to get
into the fine details of that day, but we will be monitoring for
the potential for any strong or severe thunderstorms Tuesday into
Tuesday night. The airmass behind this front will be Pacific-
based, not Arctic, so don`t expect much, if any, of a cool down
behind the FROPA. If anything, Wednesday may end up being a few
degrees warmer than Tuesday as strong upper-level riding and
surface high pressure slides over the region with afternoon highs
approaching 80 degrees.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 537 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

VFR throughout the TAF period. Light W to VRB winds expected
tonight into Fri morning, then strengthening to 5-10 KTS Fri
afternoon. There`s the possibility of llvl WS around 09-12Z Fri,
mainly for sites near and east of I45.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1059 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Light northerly winds (5-10kt) this afternoon will become west-
southwesterly winds tonight through Friday night, increasing to
10-15kt at times. Flow turns easterly by Saturday afternoon, and
then southeasterly by Sunday. Generally light winds and low seas
will prevail through the start of next week.

Main forecast concern continues to be the low water-levels,
especially during times of low tide, in the northern part of
Galveston Bay thanks to a combination of offshore winds and low
astronomical tides. Water levels down to around 1.0ft below MLLW
is forecasted during times of low tide near Morgan`s Point through
at least Sunday morning.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  44  79  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  47  76  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  52  66  54  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Low Water Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ335.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...Fowler

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion