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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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849
FXUS64 KHGX 031825
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1225 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few thunderstorms are expected along a frontal boundary that
  will push through late this afternoon and evening.

- A cool down to seasonal temperatures is expected Wednesday-
  Thursday.

- Warmer than normal temperatures return Friday into the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1149 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Let`s begin this AFD by talking about Precipitable Water (PWAT).
If you take a glance at SPC`s mesoanalysis page for south-central
CONUS, you`ll notice a stream of 1.0-1.2 inch PWAT being pushed
from the Gulf into E Texas via deep LL (sfc-850 mb) S to SSW flow.
This has helped instigate the numerous showers across the CWA,
with a few locally heavy downpours. Generally speaking, the
atmosphere is behaving as predicted. But there is one change in
the forecast relative to 24 hours ago, and that is the uptick in
expected LL instability. The low-levels are not expected to be
THAT unstable. But HREF sfc cape is showing decent potential for
at least 400-500 j/kg over portions of the CWA, with HREF max
suggesting locally over 1000 j/kg late this afternoon roughly
along and east of I-45 and north of I-10. Given the robust jet
above, efficient LL moisture transport, and sfc convergence from
an approaching cold front, I`m not going to be surprised if we end
up seeing some thunderstorms on radar later this afternoon
evening, especially along and just ahead of the front. SE Texas is
not outlooked for severe weather today. But a locally heavy
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out as the front pushes through later
this afternoon and into the evening.

We are expecting a cool down in the front`s wake. But as discussed
in previous AFDs, the current system lacks the arctic connection
that has been common of late. This can be noticed via the
strength of the sfc high pushing southward across the plains
(~1030 mb vs the recent 1040-1050+ mb highs of recent). You will
notice a northerly breeze on Wednesday. But temperatures will only
drop to about normal. Afternoon temperatures on Wednesday and
Thursday are expected to range from the upper 50s to mid 60s, with
overnight lows in the 30s and 40s. Our northern Piney Woods
counties could manage a light freeze. But those areas average lows
in the upper 30s this time of year. So a low in the lower 30s
could be considered the low side of normal up there.

Mid/upper ridging takes hold by the weekend, signaling a return to
warmer than average temperatures. The NBM is showing most
locations back above 70 degrees on Friday. Some areas could
approach 80 over the weekend! But to our west potentially looms a
robust mid/upper trough or low. Both deterministic and ensemble
data are showing this feature. Therefore, it wouldn`t surprise me
if rainfall chances increase for the early and/or middle part of
next week. But that`s a bit beyond the scope of our forecast.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 510 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

LLJ overhead should result in some LLWS early today at KCLL where
these winds are strongest compared to that of the surface. Light
showers early this morning will grow in coverage and remain
draped over the region for much of the daytime. MVFR-IFR CIGs will
be slow to lift out as a result, thus some locations will see
high- end MVFR CIGS persist into the afternoon. Cold front is
anticipated to push through the area, entering the Brazos Valley
late this afternoon and pushing off the coast overnight. Broken
line of showers and some isolated storms could form along the
front itself, along with some MVFR CIGs. VFR conditions return as
drier air fills in behind the front.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1149 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Winds remain strong enough offshore to warrant a continuation of
the Small Craft Advisory through the rest of this afternoon. A
relatively long fetch of 15-25 knot winds is enhancing seas
offshore of Matagorda, especially 20+ NM offshore. Winds and seas
should decrease later today and this evening as a front
approaches. The front could produce locally heavy showers and
thunderstorms as it pushes offshore this evening into tonight. We
cannot rule out patchy fog ahead of the front this evening. The
overall set up for fog is marginal. Gusty north winds are
expected Wednesday into Thursday, and advisories are possible.
Best chance of Small Craft Advisory level conditions will be over
the Gulf, but couldn`t rule out meeting criteria over the bays.
Lighter and more SW winds are expected on Friday and Saturday.

South to southeast flow and higher moisture levels are possible early
next week. Therefore, there is potential for sea fog next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  43  63  36  63 /  30   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  48  64  41  62 /  80   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  51  61  45  57 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 PM CST this evening
     for GMZ350-355-375.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ370.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion