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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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436
FXUS64 KHGX 012255
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
555 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot Weather continues with peak heat index values reaching 100-
  110F (38-43C). Heat safety should still be practiced, especially
  on July 4th.

- Daily rain chances. Light streamer showers possible in the
  morning, then scatters/isolated storms during the afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Current weather pattern remains a persistence forecast with little
in the way of changes. Mid-upper level ridging is still situated
across the Tennessee-Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic region today and
Thursday. Midlevel heights within this ridge peak around 596-597
dam, around the 99th-100th percentile overtop the aforementioned
area. Still, SE Texas is on the southwestern peripheral of this
ridge, so heights are only around 590-593 dam, which is only around
the ~75th percentile for this time of the year. Still, it`s enough
to maintain summer heat throughout the short term. On Friday, this
ridge will shift eastward and weaken, bleeding into the broader
subtropical high to the south over the weekend. Overall this still
won`t chance much for SE Texas as midlevel ridge heights will stay
around 590-593 dam throughout the forecast period. This ridging with
persistent onshore winds & WAA will keep hot summer weather in place
throughout the forecast. Forecast soundings aren`t showing any kind
of meaningful cap from the subsidence aloft, thus short & long range
models are showing modest afternoon mixing with respect to
dewpoints. This should help curb heat indices, though again this is
still a SE Texas summer, so conditions will still be hot.

Rain chances are naturally low, though not zero, as there are
several mechanics that may bring some rain these next several days.
Weak impulses are progged to round the bottom of the aforementioned
ridge aloft, which could bring a few showers and storms at times, at
least over the next day or so. We can see some of this convection on
radar/satellite right now, currently over the Louisiana coastline
and moving westward towards our area. Streamer showers could also
pop up at times during the morning in areas over the Gulf/along the
coast. Without capping and light winds underneath this ridge, we
could see some popup showers/thunderstorms, especially with any
seabreeze activity. Low level lapse rates are also very steep,
around 8-9 Deg C/km in the lowest 3 km, thus any storms that develop
could produce a modest downburst at least.

Bottom line, expect hot weather daily with highs in the 90s.
Dewpoints in the afternoon should range from the upper 60s to mid
70s inland, upper 70s along the coast/Gulf. This will result in
triple digit heat indices ranging from 100-110F (38-43C). WBGT
values indicate that heat stress on the human body will be high,
possibly extreme in spots, in the afternoon. There will be daily
chances of rain, possibly as light streamer showers over the
Gulf/Coast in the morning and maybe some pop-up showers/storms in
the afternoon, especially along the sea breeze. Though, models are
signaling drier weather for the July 4th holiday.

With respect to non-meteorological factors, this Independence day
falls on a weekend, and is the Semiquincentennial for the founding
of the United States of America. A substantial amount of the
population will be spending time outdoors to partake in these
celebrations, likely more than a typical holiday, thus more cases of
heat illness could emerge as a result. We`ll be keeping a close eye
on the Temps/Heat Index, but regardless heat safety should be
practiced and greatly emphasized. Heat is the #1 weather-related
killer in the U.S. each year, and often people greatly underestimate
it`s danger. If you plan to spend the day outdoors, make sure you
wear light cloths, apply sunscreen and stay hydrated by drinking
plenty of water.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 549 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Scattered shower activity between KDWH and KCLL will continue to
move to the northeast. Most of the activity should start
decreasing as we progress into the evening, but may have to amened
to add a TEMPO group for KCLL if these scattered storm activity
continues. Otherwise, a return of MVFR CIGs overnight after 06Z
will carry through the 14Z. Roughly after 08-10Z, streamer showers
could potentially result in reductions in CIG with the strongest
cells, otherwise VFR conditions return to inland terminals through
18Z. For more coastal terminals, scattered thunderstorm activity
increases from 16Z and pushing toward inland terminals. Outflow
collisions would result in new storms after 18Z, with most
shower/storm activity diminishing after 00Z. VFR conditions then
return through the end of the TAF period. With the scattered
nature of the storms and higher confidence in this convective
activity, PROB30 groups were maintained, but expanded to most
terminal sites (though lower confidence exists for KUTS and KCLL).

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Light S/SE winds around 10 knots and calm seas of 1 to 3 feet are
expected throughout the next several days. Light streamer showers
could develop over the Gulf waters each morning. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms could develop along the sea breeze in the
afternoon near the coastline and bays.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  93  76  95 /  20  10  10   0
Houston (IAH)  78  93  77  94 /  20  40  20  20
Galveston (GLS)  82  89  82  89 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Enriquez
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion