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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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320
FXUS64 KHGX 191012
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
512 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another temperate and dry day expected for Monday, though warmer
  than this past weekend.

- Marine conditions have improved but a long fetch of moderate
  easterly winds develops early this week, which may occasionally
  require intermittent caution or advisory flags.

- Warmer temperatures return this week, but just seasonable in
  nature. Rain chances will generally remain low across our CWA
  outside of Tuesday, where a passing Gulf trough could bring rain
  to our offshore waters and Matagorda Bay.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

More of the same with this forecast cycle. Building high pressure
keeps humidity low, winds gentle (5-10 mph) out of the east, and
skies mostly clear to partly cloudy. Under these conditions,
temperatures continue to rise steadily, with highs on Monday and
Tuesday reaching the upper 70s-mid 80s with inland lows in the low
50s-60s and coastal lows in the mid 60s-low 70s. The front part of
the workweek brings the "highest" chances for rain, but is largely
confined offshore. Monday sees PoPs of 10-30% off Brazoria and
Matagorda county coasts. A surface trough brings slightly elevated
PWATs (~1.5", near seasonal average) to Matagorda Bay throughout the
day on Tuesday. While the main threat remains offshore, 20-40 PoPs
approach the coastline. Around these showers Monday and Tuesday,
winds are a touch stronger offshore ~15-20 mph and seas elevate to
~3-5 ft. Similar setup on Wednesday brings 15-30% PoPs, dissipating
through the afternoon.

After our coast-isolated showers, the rest of the week is dry and
continues warming. This is partially explained by an Omega Block
developing aloft by Wednesday. These upper level patterns
essentially "trap" high pressure and, for our region, indicate dry
weather and light winds. By Thursday, high temperatures are largely
in the mid-upper 80s and persist through the weekend. Inland lows in
the mid 50s-60s and coastal lows in the mid 60s-low 70s.

BSM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 512 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

VFR conditions and light northerly winds continue to prevail.
Satellite imagery and observations depict BKN mid-level clouds
between 3500-5000 ft beginning to develop west of I-45...can`t
entirely rule out a brief period of high-end MVFR ceilings through
mid-morning. Later this morning, winds will become easterly
around 5-10 kt inland with winds near 15 kt along the coast
through the afternoon. Winds will become light and variable after
sunset, then start out the day light and northeasterly on Tuesday
morning.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

As high pressure transitions off to our east, a long fetch of
moderate easterly winds will set up across the northern Gulf Coast
this week. Speeds will generally be between 10 and 20 knots and
seas in the 3 to 5 foot range through midweek, though there could
be some intermittent periods of slightly higher speeds and seas in
the offshore Gulf waters which could warrant caution or advisory
flags for short time periods for the first half of the week.

47/BSM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  55  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  78  59  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  77  72  79  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BSM
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion