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553
FXUS64 KHGX 131748
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1248 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A gradual warming trend continues going into the weekend, with
  highs reaching the mid to upper 80s Sunday.

- Another cooldown is on the way after the next cold front, which
  will be accompanied by showers/storms late Sunday. Strong storms
  are possible along the frontal boundary.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected in the wake of the front
  through Monday: strong northerly winds (gusting to 40+ kt),
  elevated seas (9-13 ft), and potential for negative tides.

- Monitoring the potential for elevated fire weather conditions on
  Monday as dry air overlaps with gusty northerly winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

I know that today`s Friday the 13th and all...but I`d say that we
started off the morning with pretty good luck as most of us had out-
the-door temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to the upper 40s.
With drier air in place and 850mb temperatures on the rise due to
southwesterly winds aloft, high temperatures this afternoon will top
out in the mid to upper 70s. That warming trend will carry on into
the weekend, which brings us into the low 80s on Saturday and the
mid to upper 80s on Sunday. Winds will gradually increase going into
Saturday night as a SW-NE oriented LLJ strengthens (stretches from
TX to the Upper Midwest). This is due to the pressure gradient
tightening as surface low pressure begins to develop in the Central
Plains in response to an upper level trough sweeping through the
central CONUS.

As the surface low drifts eastward on Sunday, it will drag a cold
front through Southeast TX in the late afternoon/evening hours.
There will be a thin band line of showers/storms along the frontal
boundary as it pushes through. There remains the question of exactly
how much moisture will be available. The moisture availability is
generally better the further east you go, and also increases as the
boundary heads closer to the coast. The NAM 12km goes out that far,
so it`s our best look at high-res guidance at the moment. It also
reflects a thin band of showers/storms along the boundary. I do want
to point out though that there will be sufficient instability,
shear, and lift (thanks FROPA!). So, there is some potential for a
few storms to become strong to severe. This is more likely to occur
in northeastern locations. As a result, SPC has outlined portions of
the Piney Woods in a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather.
Areas east of a College Station-Katy-Galveston line are outlined in
a marginal risk (level 1 of 5). If a storm were to become severe,
strong winds and hail would be the primary hazards.

This will be a very progressive front, so flooding is not a
concern...the front will go from Crockett to off the coast in around
6 hours. There`s an equation in there somewhere...am I gonna do
it...yeah why not. The straight line distance between Crockett and
the offshore Gulf waters is around 230-240 miles. Given that it
crosses this distance in 6 hours, and using the speed equation
(distance/time), we can infer that the speed of the front will be in
the 35-40 mph range. So, we`ll have the front stay in the right-hand
lane as it travels down I-45.

There are multiple hazards to discuss in the wake of the front, so
let`s start with the inland hazards. Sunday night into Monday
morning, there will be a strong LLJ overhead in the 50-60 kt range.
Some of those winds will mix down to the surface leading to
sustained northerly winds in the 20-25 mph range with higher gusts.
This means that there is good potential for a Wind Advisory for
portions of Southeast TX during this timeframe. There is also
potential for elevated fire weather conditions on Monday as the dry
air and gusty winds overlap (see Fire Weather discussion down below
for more information). Additionally, these strong winds will create
hazardous marine conditions ranging from gale force winds to
elevated seas to abnormally low water levels in the bays during low
tide cycles (see Marine discussion down below for more information).

Temperatures behind the front will be some of the coolest weather
we`ve seen since early February! High temperatures on Monday are
expected to be in the 50s...the last time this happened was on
February 1st (over 40 days ago). Sunday night and Monday night will
feature low temperatures in the 30s/40s with the potential for a
light freeze Monday night in portions of the Piney Woods. A rather
robust upper level high begins to build into the southwestern CONUS
around midweek (see CPC`s temperature outlook to see all the red).
We`ll go on a warming trend next week as well with temperatures
approaching the upper 80s by the end of the work week. That`s not
anywhere near as hot as it`ll be to our west...seriously check out
the forecast for some places in Arizona next week...the 80s will
feel cool in comparison!

BONUS NUGGET//
--------------

If you read this far, then you deserve a treat! So we`ll briefly
talk about something else that could potentially occur behind the
front. Before I say anything, please note that this has a VERY
VERY VERY low probability of happening...but it`s not zero! Going
into late Sunday night/early Monday morning, the tailend of a thin
band of increased moisture (RH values: 80-100%) between 500-700mb
passes through the eastern portion of the Piney Woods. Looking at
some model soundings, this saturation is right in the dendritic
growth zone (-20 to -10C). There is quite a bit of dry air below
this layer down to the surface (~4-5km) though, but "maybe" with
some wet bulb magic a few flurries could "theoretically" reach
the surface. Again this is a VERY VERY VERY low probability (< 5%)
...but for once it`s not completely zero, so it`s notable! This
scenario seems a bit more plausible the further northeast you go.

Batiste/Alexander

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 557 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail throughout the day with
southerly to southeasterly winds picking up to around 10 kt later
this morning lasting thru the afternoon. Winds decrease below 5 kt
after sunset for most locations. Some model guidance indicates
the potential for reduced ceilings and visibilities overnight into
Saturday morning for the northern terminals (CXO and northward).

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Light onshore flow will prevail through Saturday. Winds and seas
begin to increase Saturday night into Sunday in advance of an
approaching cold front. This will increase the potential for strong
rip currents over the weekend and may prompt the issuance of caution
flags.

A cold front will push offshore Sunday night with showers/storms
along the boundary. Expect strong northerly winds (30-35 kt with
gusts over 40 kt) and elevated seas (9-13 ft) in the wake of this
front through Monday. A Gale Watch/Warning will likely be needed
Sunday night into Monday. Those heading to the beaches or out on the
waters for Spring Break should be advised of this period of
hazardous marine conditions late Sunday into Monday. Typically
inflatables are discouraged by beach patrol with offshore winds.
Additionally, PETSS guidance is already indicating the potential for
abnormally low water levels during times of low tide beginning
Monday. Winds and seas gradually subside going into Monday night
with onshore flow returning by Tuesday and prevailing through the
end of the work week.

Batiste/Alexander

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Minimum RH values this afternoon will be in the 35 to 45 percent
range inland and the 45 to 55 percent range along the coasts. With
southerly to southeasterly winds prevailing through most of the
weekend, expect rising RH values over the next few days. Another
surge of dry air can be expected early next week after a strong cold
front pushes through late Sunday.

We are monitoring the potential for elevated fire weather conditions
on Monday as dry air overlaps with gusty northerly winds. Drier air
sticks around on Tuesday, but winds will be lighter and
southeasterly.

Batiste/Alexander

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  51  82  63  88 /   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)  56  82  64  86 /   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  64  76  69  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion