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857
FXUS64 KHGX 082320
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wet weather will continue into Mother`s Day weekend with a risk
  of flash flooding and some strong to severe storms.

- Lull in rainfall on Saturday night/early Sunday with a cold
  front pushing off the coast that night into early Monday.

- High pressure and calmer weather throughout much of the
  upcoming work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Current satellite imagery still shows a shortwave trough over
Northern Mexico approaching the western edge of Texas with derived
PWs around 1.4-2.0 inches. Already had our first round of
showers/storms pass through SE Texas earlier today with some light
showers still persisting over the area at the time of writing. Even
though CAMs performance hasn`t been ideal per previous shifts, the
slew of short-range guidance suggests the potential for some
additional rounds of storms this afternoon and overnight as weak
impulses continue to funnel over the area aloft. Broadly this
environment is progged to contain ~40 knots of 6km shear with bulk
shear upwards of 50 knots. 3km SRH reaches 150-250m2/s2, decent
though still on the low end with storms more elevated in nature
until the warm front is able to lift back up through the area.
Instability is rather low, with SFC CAPE around 500-100 J/KG and
midlevel lapse rates peaking at 6.8-7.4 DegC/km. Drier air in the
midlevel, but still very saturated in the lower levels with a deep
warm cloud layer of around 13,700 ft. CAPE profiles in forecast
soundings are also very slim, and overall seem better coded to
heavier rains. Model guidance shows several higher-end bullseyes for
rainfall, with some loose clustering closer to the coastline and
east TX/W LA. One aspect that makes the forecast tricker is a line
of convection coming from the north overnight into Saturday in
conjunction with another shortwave to the west. Timing differences
may lead to a slew of different outcomes for how such features will
interact, though broadly this window looks a little more promising
for SVR wx with deeper instability aloft.

Overall, portions of SE Texas are outlooked for a Marginal Risk
(Level 1/5) of Severe Weather today & Saturday, along with Marginal
Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall today. All severe hazards are
still on the table with these storms, mainly winds and hail. Heavy
rainfall also remains a concern as well. Many areas could see less
than an inch of rainfall due to light showers/low coverage. Some
spots with stronger storms could see totals near 1-3 inches, with
isolated higher totals upwards of around 4-5 inches possible.

Should see a lull in rains some time around Saturday night into
portions of Sunday as the shortwave aloft pushes off to the east.
Onshore flow should be back in place, though only briefly. A deeper
upper level low over Ontario/Quebec is progged to push a cold front
through SE Texas Sunday night through early Monday. Anticipate
another round of showers/thunderstorms along the front as it makes
it`s way off the coast.

Monday should see breezy, cooler and drier weather as high pressure
fills over the area in the wake of the cold front. A mid to upper
level ridge will also build across the Four Corners region, ushering
in a period of benign weather through the next several days. This
ridge aloft should shift easterly, along with surface high pressure,
allowing onshore winds to return around Tuesday night. This will
allow moisture to rebuild as temperatures rise through mid week. Highs
should be in the upper 70s/80s with lows in the 60s/70s.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Late this afternoon, only a couple of showers are present east of
all of the terminals. MVFR to IFR ceilings remain in place for
most terminals, but expect IFR ceilings to become widespread
overnight. Model guidance indicates fairly good potential for LIFR
ceilings between 09Z-15Z/Saturday. Cannot entirely rule out
visibilities decreasing to less than 1-2SM during this timeframe
as well due to fog. This timing also coincides with the first
round of showers moving in from the north. Model guidance remains
a bit uncertain on the exact timing and placement, but the highest
confidence window for rainfall looks to be in the 10Z-15Z
timeframe Saturday morning for terminals near and north of I-10.
Ceilings will take a while to lift...only becoming MVFR by around
17Z then VFR around 19Z-20Z.

Another round of showers looks to develop in the mid to late
afternoon as well (after 20Z), mainly near and south of I-10.
This portion of the forecast is a bit more uncertain, but we
cannot rule out some embedded thunderstorms in both the early
morning convection and the mid to late afternoon convection.
Winds will remain light and variable throughout most of the
forecast period. For terminals near and south of I-10, east-
southeasterly winds will become prevalent around 5-8 kt on
Saturday afternoon. Ceilings look to trend towards MVFR/IFR late
Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Onshore winds return this afternoon as a warm front lifts north into
SE Texas. Could see a few hours of elevated winds across Galveston
bay, but otherwise light to moderate winds will continue through
Saturday. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible now
through the weekend. Storms could produce higher winds, seas and
lower visibility from heavier rainfall. Anticipate a lull in
rainfall, around Saturday night into Sunday. A cold front should
push off the coast around Sunday night or early Monday morning,
bringing another round of showers and storms. Moderate northeast
winds are expected after the front, decreasing and shifting
southeasterly Tuesday night.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  69  83  68  86 /  40  30  10  10
Houston (IAH)  72  84  72  88 /  40  50  20  10
Galveston (GLS)  75  82  76  84 /  30  40  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion