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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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756
FXUS64 KHGX 041145
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
645 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Sunday, better
  chance of thunderstorms in the morning near the coast.

- Much lower humidity and cooler nights Monday - Wednesday.

- After a break in the rain/humidity, we should see chances ramp
  back up across parts of the region Thur-Sat (especially coastal
  areas).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

A west Gulf trough, enveloped in very high PWATs, is producing
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity along with gusty coastal
and Gulf northeast winds. Some showers and thunderstorms Saturday
evening were heavy, which makes sense given the widespread 2.0+
inch PWATs. That being said, rainfall totals thus far this weekend have
generally been manageable since most of the heavier action has
remained offshore (not too surprising). This will probably be a
theme today, with scattered inland activity and heavier showers
and storms over the Gulf. Cannot rule out some of these Gulf
showers and storms moving ashore at the coast Sunday morning.
Given tides are running higher than normal, this will make coastal
areas a little more vulnerable to localized flooding.

As we head into Monday, a ~1025MB sfc high is expected to build over
the planes. Meanwhile, the Gulf trough should push farther
offshore. The building gradient should enhance NE LL flow,
advecting somewhat cooler and much drier air into the region.
Expect low humidity and afternoon temperatures in the 80s Monday -
Wednesday. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the 60s away
from the coast and outside Houston`s urban heat island. Though I
cannot rule out morning lows as cool as the upper 60s within the
city.

The aforementioned trough could make its return later in the week.
The sfc high should push eastward, while a potential cut-off low
like feature approaches from the west. This would open the door for
synoptic-scale lift along with increasing moisture levels and the
potential return for onshore flow (depending on exact positioning of
LL features). Therefore, the late-week forecast features rising
humidity and increasing shower/thunderstorm chances.

For those yearning for "real" fall-like weather, there is decent
ensemble support for a stronger cold front by the middle of the
month. Honestly, the data in the ensemble meteograms is probably the
strongest model support I`ve seen for a strong cold front reaching
SE Texas thus far this season. But considering how far out this
theoretical front is, I`d say taper your excitement for now.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Widespread MVFR to IFR conditions due to low clouds will continue
this morning, with a slight improvement to high-end MVFR
conditions by this afternoon. A frontal boundary will continue to
move off the coast today, serving as a focusing mechanism for low
ceilings and additional -SHRA or -TSRA across some terminals. The
best rain/storm chances will remain for terminals from HOU
coastward through late this afternoon. Moderate NE winds will also
prevail with gusts up to 20 knots. Conditions will gradually
improve to VFR from northwest to southeast by late this evening.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1110 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

The presence of a trough in the western Gulf and the gradual
building of a surface high over the central United States will
steepen the gradient and enhance northeast winds and seas through
Monday, and likely through Tuesday. Small Craft Advisory is in
effect for the Gulf waters through Monday, and could be extended
further. There will also be periods of Small Craft level winds in
the bays, particularly lower bays. Winds could gust over 30 knots
at times, especially over the Gulf and near/within thunderstorms. We
haven`t issued an advisory for the bays but cannot rule out an
advisory being warranted. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms likely today. The chance of showers and
thunderstorms will shift farther offshore Monday- Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  81  67  84  64 /  30  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  83  72  88  71 /  30  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  85  78  86  77 /  80  40  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Monday afternoon for
     GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ350-355-370-
     375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion