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472
FXUS64 KHGX 051803
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
103 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to occasionally numerous showers and storms are
  expected today and Saturday.

- High rainfall rates will result in minor flooding of poor
  drainage areas as well as a risk for isolated flash flooding.

- Look for increasing winds/seas/rip current risk along the coast
  starting today through at least the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A weak southern stream upper low remains to the west of the Big
Bend today, while at the surface high pressure remains over the
Southeast CONUS. Veering flow from easterly/southeasterly at the
surface to southwesterly aloft is present, with deep layer moist
onshore flow. Convergence between east winds associated with high
pressure over our eastern counties and southeasterly to southerly
winds elsewhere has resulted in some heavier rain bands this
morning. This convergence will weaken later in the day, but
daytime heating will continue to result in additional shower and
thunderstorm development. Upper-level divergence will also be
present downstream of the upper low. PWATs are in the 2 to 2.2
inch range with saturated profiles, weak lapse rates aloft, and a
deep warm cloud layer. This will continue to favor high rainfall
rates with quick amounts of 1-3", with isolated 4"+ amounts per
HREF max values. Minor flooding of poor drainage areas is expected
with a risk for at least isolated flash flooding, and WPC has
expanded the slight risk of excessive rainfall eastward with the
morning update. Activity should diminish this evening, though rain
chances will persist in portions of the Brazos Valley where
remnants of upstream convection may move in overnight.

The upper low will move slowly northeastward across West Texas on
Saturday and begin to open up into a wave as it moves to the
Central Plains on Sunday. There will be less convergence on
Saturday as high pressure moves to the east, and mid-level flow
will be a bit stronger helping cells to move a little more.
However, there will be little change in air mass and
unidirectional flow will continue to be favorable for training
convection. Therefore, expect another day of high rain chances
Saturday with a continued risk for locally heavy rainfall. Heights
begin to rise Sunday as the shortwave lifts northward with mid-
levels beginning to dry out. This will begin to decrease the
coverage of showers and storms, but PWATs will remain above
normal.

Subtropical ridging will strengthen over the Gulf and southern
CONUS next week. This will result in showers and storms becoming
more isolated as PWATs trend closer to normal. Temperatures will
also begin to warm up, with heat indices mainly in the 100-107
range. A few locations may begin to approach 108 heat indices late
in the period.

JDavis

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Mixed bag of MVFR to VFR ceilings early this morning, and cannot
rule out intermittent periods of IFR ceilings through 15Z.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms early this morning
will gradually expand in coverage going into the afternoon.
Reduced ceilings and visibilities are anticipated if heavy
downpours move over a terminal. Timing of TEMPOs and PROB30s
represent the most likely window for convection, but
showers/storms may occur before this as well. Coverage of
showers/storms decreases after 00Z, but may still have some
lingering isolated activity south of I-10 overnight into early
Saturday morning. Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected
overnight into Saturday morning. Expect winds to generally be
east-southeasterly around 7-10 kt throughout the day (outside of
any storms) then becoming light and variable later this evening.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots Saturday night into Sunday,
which will probably necessitate caution flags. Due to the
prolonged SE to E winds, additional water will be piling up at the
east/south facing shores. Rip current risk will steadily increase
through the weekend and into the early parts of next week.
Coastal flooding does not seem to be a concern right now but a few
of the lowest lying spots may see water during high tide.

JDavis

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  85  73  85  74 /  60  50  70  20
Houston (IAH)  86  75  87  76 /  80  20  80  20
Galveston (GLS)  87  80  87  82 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDavis
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...JDavis

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion