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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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352
FXUS64 KHGX 310605
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1205 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Arctic air spilling into the region will keep cold temperatures
  in place this weekend. Freezes are likely tonight, hard freezes potentially
  for some locations. Wind chills will also be on the low side.

- Hazardous marine conditions today and into tonight with elevated
  winds/seas and low water levels.

- A gradual warm up early next week along with rain chances
  returning to the forecast Tuesday and Tuesday night ahead of the
  next cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1204 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Dry, cold, Arctic air will continue spilling into the area today.
Readings will start out in the 27-37F range will struggle to warm
much more than about 10 degrees this afternoon despite plentiful
sunshine.

Tonight, mostly clear skies and lighter winds will allow readings to
fall below freezing for all but maybe the beaches (who too will be
close). In general, areas north of I-10 have a better shot of seeing
hard freezes...meaning temps at or below 24F for 2+ hours. Will let
the dayshift take a look at another round of model data and fine
tune things and upgrade all, or portions of, the ongoing Freeze
Watch to a Warning if need be. Regardless of any winter related
Warning/Advisory headlines...the messaging is the same - it`s going
to be cold and we encourage folks to take the necessary cold weather
precautions and preparations.

Surface high pressure slowly tracks to our east on Sunday. We should
see some moderating temperatures and moisture return heading into
early next week. Mid-upper ridging expands across the western CONUS
and healthy ssewd shortwave diving down the Plains into Tx digs out
another east CONUS trof by midweek. This pattern will favor our next
Tue night or Wed morning frontal passage locally. We should see
plenty of moisture to work with for some shower and isolated tstms
to develop ahead of this boundary. Surface and upper ridging in its
wake will provide dry, seasonable wx in its wake for the remainder
of the work week. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 541 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

VFR at all sites. Winds currently light out of the north.
Overnight expect winds to increase to 10-15 kts with gusts to
around 25 kts. This will continue through much of the day Saturday
before winds decrease around the end of the TAF period. High
clouds will clear out overnight with clear skies across the
southern terminals tomorrow. A few high clouds left over further
north.

Bailey

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1204 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

North winds will again start increasing heading into the morning as
colder, Arctic air spills into the region. Elevated winds and seas
will persist for a good part of the day Saturday. Small Craft
Advisories remain in effect, and some gusts to around 30kt are
possible into the mid morning hours. Winds and seas will begin
subsiding late today and into Sunday when winds become lighter and
gradually veer to the east and southeast. Low water conditions will
continue through the weekend particularly around low tide cycles.
Onshore flow persists and gradually increases through Tuesday as the
next system approaches. Conditions will need to be monitored for the
potential for patchy sea fog Monday night and Tuesday night. The fog
risk, for now, appears marginal. The next front and associated
showers will push off the coast late Tue night or Wed morning. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  41  23  54  36 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  44  24  53  37 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  44  34  51  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST today for TXZ163-164-
     176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338.

     Freeze Watch from this evening through Sunday morning for TXZ163-
     164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>237-300.

GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ350-355-
     370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion