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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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045
FXUS64 KHGX 102346
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
646 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly cloudy, warm, muggy, and breezy conditions this afternoon.

- Next weather system and associated band of storms push across
  the region overnight into Wednesday followed by cooler, breezy,
  and seasonal conditions to end the work week.

- Some hazardous marine conditions mariners and Spring Breaker`s
  should be aware of: some fog tonight, rip currents & building
  surf Tue-Wed, moderate to strong north winds Wed night and Thurs
  (typically inflatables are discouraged by beach patrol with
  offshore winds).

- Monitoring the potential for another cold front going into early
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A mid/upper level low currently positioned over Western
Mexico/Southern Four Corners will bring inclement weather to SE
Texas through the later half of the world week. We`re already seeing
some of this in the form of light showers across the northern tier
of counties this afternoon. PWs are generally around 1.4-1.8 inches,
though CAMs have these values progged to reach nearly 2.0 inches or
more in the afternoon, with the primary moisture axis again focused
over the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area. Still, there`s a layer of
drier around 850-700mb which is limiting some of the precipitation
making it to the surface. Still, with ample shortwave energy kicking
out of the main trough and an 850mb 30-35 knot LLJ in place, rain
chances overall should be on the rise later tonight. Instability and
shear will be sufficient for some stronger, possibly severe storms
this afternoon, mainly across our northern counties. SPC has a
Marginal Risk (level 1/5) clipping these northern counties this
afternoon with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) near our doorstep. All
severe hazards are on the table with these storms, and while
conditions favor keeping activity north of our area for the time
being, I wouldn`t fully rule out the potential for getting clipped
by a stronger storm or two. Otherwise, cloudy weather continues
through the rest of the afternoon with highs topping out in the mid
70s/upper 80s.

Onshore flow begins to strengthen this evening as the 850mb LLJ
reaches 40-55 knots, the strongest winds of which again are
anticipated over the northern 1/3 of our CWA overnight. An MCS will
also fire up across the central Texas with convection spanning from
the Bend to the Red River Valley. Activity should propagate eastward
overnight following the low aloft, though CAMs show a lull in this
activity during the early morning hours of Wednesday as the system
approaches SE Texas. Partially due to waning instability overnight,
but also due to the region of diffluence and updraft helicity
tracking NE and staying largely north of the area during this
period. We`ll still probably see some showers and storms overnight
into early Wednesday, though the main window for storms and severe
weather should come later.

Greater storm coverage and intensity is generally expected late
Wednesday morning through the afternoon/evening as the low aloft
digs through SE Texas. Our region will have around 35-50knots of 6km
bulk shear to work with during this period. Instability will be
rather lacking, though CAM guidance suggests ML CAPE may reach
around 1000-1400 across portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods
area in the afternoon. Updraft helicity and lift is still generally
more potent north of I-10 as well during this period. A cold front
should follow the surface low, tracking eastwards across SE Texas in
the afternoon with another reinforcing front pushing in from the
north behind it later in the evening. CAMs are suggesting that there
may be some lingering moisture behind the initial westerly front to
produce storms along the northerly front later in the evening.
Either way it`s poised to be a very dynamic weather environment and
mesoscale processes will likely have a large role to play. The key
time to watch will be during the afternoon hours. SPC has our
northeastern counties under a slight (level 2/5) risk for severe
weather on Wednesday with the remainder of SE texas under at least a
marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe weather. Again, all hazards are
on the table, including locally heavy rainfall as well (should
storms train over the same area).

Rain chances taper off Wednesday night with cooler, drier and breezy
weather developing Thursday in the wake of the front. Onshore flow
returns and ushers in pleasant weather through the rest of spring
break. Next cold front is still tentatively set for Sunday
night/Monday morning.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Gusty south winds and mix of IFR/high MVFR across the area, with
some very light -SHRA around CLL and UTS to start. Should see
another night with low MVFR and potentially some IFR CIGs, but
generally anticipating slightly better conditions tonight due to
stronger winds.

Focus then turns to potential for TSRA ahead of/along incoming
front. Highest confidence farther north, through IAH or so which
have prevailing SHRA and TEMPO TSRA for broken line of storms.
Farther south, confidence in line holding together diminishes, and
transition to TSRA becoming a PROB30 from HOU coastward. Northern
sites and IAH extended begin to address wind shift after FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 123 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Sea fog chances should continue to decrease heading into mid week as
onshore winds strengthen. May see some patches of fog at times,
though visibility should generally remain around 2-6 NM within these
patches. Caution flags and small craft advisories will be in effect
overnight to capture these rising winds and seas. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to push through the region on Wednesday
with a cold front moving off the coast behind it. Anticipate
stronger winds and waves near thunderstorms. Strong northwesterly
winds develop late Wednesday night after the front, reaching 25-30
knots with gusts to Gale. Seas may reach 6-10 feet. Additional small
craft advisories are likely late Wednesday night through at least
Thursday afternoon.

Strong winds will also bring a high risk of rip currents through
Thursday. Those heading to the beach for Spring Break should swim
near a lifeguard and away from rocks, jetties, and piers. Onshore
winds and calmer weather returns Friday morning. Next cold front
arrives some time late Sunday/early Monday.

03

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

We`ll be monitoring the Trinity River at Riverside (RVRT2) as we
anticipate another round of showers and storms late Tuesday night
into Wednesday as there is potential for it to crest near or into
minor flood stage over the next couple of days. A couple of other
gauges along the Trinity River may crest near action stage
depending on how much rain falls into the basin.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  67  75  47  67 /  60  80  30   0
Houston (IAH)  71  78  53  70 /  20 100  30   0
Galveston (GLS)  69  74  58  68 /  10  50  30   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Wednesday morning
     for GMZ330-350.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Wednesday morning
     for GMZ335-355.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 PM CDT this evening
     for GMZ370.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion