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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

859
FXUS64 KHGX 291754
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1254 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and dry conditions expected today and Sunday with isolated
  showers and storms in the afternoon hours.

- Moisture increases going into the work week leading to increased
  coverage of afternoon showers/storms and increasing
  humidity/heat indices.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Mid-level high pressure and ridge axis have shifted further eastward
into Texas today leading to drier conditions. PW values for this
afternoon are expected to be in the 1.5-1.7" range (25th percentile:
~1.41"). For perspective, PW values on Friday afternoon were in the
1.8-2.1" range...so we definitely have less moisture to work with.
With the mid-level high now to our north (centered over the Red
River), the flow aloft has transitioned from northeasterly to nearly
due easterly. Since we`ll still be on the periphery of the mid-level
high, we`ll remain in decent position for embedded shortwaves in the
flow aloft. So, less moisture but we keep the lifting mechanisms
(embedded shortwaves). That equation comes out to shower/storm
chances remaining in the forecast, but with less coverage than the
previous days. The best chances for showers/storms this weekend will
be along the seabreeze in the afternoon hours, so highest PoPs
generally along and south of I-10. This applies through at least
Sunday, then moisture begins to increase going into the beginning of
the work week...more on that in a little bit.

Hot and mostly dry conditions over the weekend with high
temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices in the
102-107F range. We`ll see an ever so slightly downward trend in
temperatures (by a couple of degrees) going into the early part of
the work week as moisture begins to increase. This increase in
moisture likely comes courtesy of a disorganized cluster of showers
that`s currently being monitored by the NHC (see Tropical discussion
below for more details). Small spoiler: the probability it`ll
develop into anything is very low and even if it tries to develop
it`d do so very slowly. The moisture from this though will bring PW
values back closer to the 75th percentile (~1.96") especially east
of I-45. Uncertainty still remains, but for now the highest rain
chances associated with this will be generally east of I-45.

Beyond midweek, the mid-level high and ridge axis continues to
transition eastward. The main theme of our forecast doesn`t change
though. Hot, humid, and daily chances of afternoon showers/storms.
We`ll need to monitor heat indices as well as they may approach the
Heat Advisory threshold at times especially towards the end of the
work week. Please continue to keep heat safety and thunderstorm
safety in mind if you have any outdoor plans.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Primarily VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds are light
and variable, strengthening to 5-10 kts from the SE throughout
the afternoon, then return to light and variable overnight around
02Z. Isolated showers are possible today for our southern sites
between 19-00Z. Any rain we get this afternoon, along with the
light overnight winds, could bring MVFR VIS to sites bordering
I-10, with the main concerns being IAH and CXO. This BR is likely
to dissipate after sunrise. Stagnant upper-level conditions
suggest a repeated pattern for tomorrow`s conditions.

BSM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Benign marine conditions continue with light easterly winds today
becoming southeasterly later this afternoon alongside 1-3 ft
seas. Light onshore flow and low seas will prevail over the next
several days. Isolated to scattered showers/storms will be
possibly daily, but especially early next week as a disorganized
area of convection approaches from the east. Strong winds and
building seas are possible near storms.

Batiste

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

We are monitoring a disorganized cluster of showers/storms
associated with a weak area of low pressure over the north central
Gulf. The probability that this will slowly develop into anything is
very low (10% over the next 7 days), but we will continue to
monitor as it gradually drifts westward. It is too early to
determine any specific impacts for our area. The most likely
scenario is increased moisture in the northwestern Gulf in the
early to middle part of the work week which would increase our
chances for showers/storms.

Please continue to monitor the latest updates from the National
Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  99  76  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  98  79  98  79 /  20  10  20  10
Galveston (GLS)  91  84  91  83 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...BSM
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion