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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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492
FXUS64 KHGX 081828
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
128 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are expected
  today, mainly focused over areas near and south of I-10.

- High temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 90s inland
  and the upper 80s to lower 90s along the coast through the end
  of the work week. Isolated spots west of I-45 could see highs in
  the upper 90s at times.

- Rain chances increase mid-week as tropical moisture returns to
  the area. Locally heavy rainfall with rainfall rates of 2-3" per
  hour is possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

The southern periphery of a mid-level high pressure situated over
Oklahoma and Kansas will be the dominant weather feature today
and will help increase temperatures, peaking in the mid to upper
90s for most inland areas and the lower to mid 90s along the
coast. Heat indices will be high today as well, ranging between
105-108 deg F for most of Southeast Texas, and some isolated spots
may peaking at 109-110 deg F. Make sure to practice heat safety,
especially if you plan to work or spend time outdoors for extended
periods. Remember, if the ground is too hot for your hands, then
it is likely too hot for their paws :).

Although the high pressure will help limit shower development,
there is still enough low-level moisture and instability this
afternoon for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
form. Not much change seen in the low-level moisture amounts today
and the GOES-19 Total Precipitable Water Imagery at noon showed
2.1-2.3 inches over most areas south of the Brazos Valley and
Piney Woods region. Thus, we will likely continue to see some more
showers and storms mostly near and south of I-10 for the rest of
the afternoon with a few showers and storms possible north of I-10
if it can surpass the influence of the high pressure.

A more active weather pattern is expected on Wednesday as the
high pressure shifts towards the California region while our local
PWs continue to range between 2.1-2.3 inches over most of the
area south of the Brazos Valley. Throughout the day, expect
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms south of the
Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region and isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms northward. With the amount of
low-lelve moisture in place, locally heavy rainfall with rainfall
rates of 2-3" per hour is possible. This could lead to ponding of
water along roadways and areas of poor drainage at times.
Increasing cloud coverage and rain chances will help bring the
high temperatures back into the lower to mid 90s range on
Wednesday, mostly for areas with the higher chances of rain. The
Brazos Valley may remain in the mid to upper 90s range.

For the rest of the work week and upcoming weekend, daily
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected as
disturbances move overhead while high pressure continues across
the Southwest and Southeast CONUS.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Isolated to scattered TSRA with MVFR cigs/vis possible this
afternoon throughout our region as the northward sea breeze
interacts with a moist air mass. Therefore, PROB30s were included
at all TAF sites. Beyond 24Z, winds will be calm and VRB until
they pick back up in an E/SE direction tomorrow morning. Models
are indicating a possibility of MVFR cig/vis for the northern TAF
sites during the 14 to 16Z period, which prompted the inclusion of
a TEMPO. Afternoon sea breeze convection remains a possibility
tomorrow afternoon after 16Z, so a PROB30 was included for IAH
with one likely being added to HOU after the 18Z package.

JMG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Light winds and seas of 2 feet or less are expected through the
end of the work week. Winds become light to moderate and seas rise
to 2-3 feet this upcoming weekend. Chance for showers and
thunderstorms increase to 40-70% on Wednesday and Thursday, then
range between 20-50% Friday into early next week. Locally heavy
rainfall, frequent lightning, and strong winds of 20-30 knots will
be the main hazards in and around stronger storms. Storms could
also produce outflow boundaries that result in stronger variable
wind gusts.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  97  76  96  75 /  20  10  20   0
Houston (IAH)  95  79  93  78 /  30  10  40  10
Galveston (GLS)  93  83  91  81 /  30  30  50  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cotto
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion