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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

294
FXUS64 KHGX 282241
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
541 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate to major heat risk daily through early next week. Peak
  heat index values between 103-107F (39-42C) through Tuesday.

- High rip current risk along area beaches through Monday

- Low to moderate rain chances return towards the middle of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Water vapor imagery late this morning reveals an upper level trough
moving across the Ohio Valley and another pushing east across the
Northwest US. Upper level ridging can be seen in place over much of
the southern US. At the surface, high pressure over the Gulf will
help maintain a persistent southerly flow across the region. This
will maintain warm and humid conditions over the next few days (more
on that later). Not expecting much in the way of precip over the
next few days as subsidence remains in place and an influx of drier
air arrives through the day as plume of Saharan Dust moves inland.
It remains to be seen if the SAL will have any impact on air quality
Monday (this far west it often remains aloft) but skies will become
hazier.

As we head into the work week, the upper level ridge
axis will gradually shift north and east, opening the door for a few
upper level impulses to rotate around the southern periphery of the
ridge. A plume of slightly deeper moisture will move off the Gulf by
mid week. However, the axis of deeper moisture looks to remain to
our east. With that said, we will see a slight uptick in rain
chances, generally 20-40% during the afternoons from midweek through
the weekend.

The main weather concern continues to be the warm and humid
conditions across the region. High temps will warm into the mid 90s
each day outside of the immediate coast. There won`t be much relief
at night as lows only fall into the mid 70s to low 80s. Peak heat
indices should remain just below advisory criteria, generally 105-
107 degrees. A few sites may briefly hit 108-109 during the
afternoon hours. This will pose a moderate to major (orange to red)
heat risk across southeast Texas. The latest probabilistic heat risk
guidance hints as a low (~20%) chance for some locations to
experience an extreme heat risk daily through the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 530 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

ALl sites at VFR with conditions remaining VFR for most sites
through around 08Z. Terminals north of I-45 are anticipated to
experience MVFR CIGs during the early morning hours Monday.
Confidence is low as to whether or not DWH/IAH will experience
MVFR CIGs, but have mentioned the possibility briefly from
approximately 11Z-14Z. Conditions return to VFR levels at all
sites by mid morning. Winds through the period will generally be
out of the southeast at 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts through
the evening hours. Winds overnight will be light out of the
southeast. Monday afternoon winds are anticipated to increase to
around 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Bailey

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Moderate to strong southerly winds and 3 to 6 foot seas will
prevail through Monday. Winds will increase slightly overnight.
Therefore, a Small Craft Advisory is now in effect from 7 PM this
evening through 7 AM Monday morning. Winds and seas will decrease
slightly Tuesday into the mid-week period. There will be a high
risk of rip currents along area beaches through at least Monday.
Rain chances will remain very low through early next week,
increasing to the low to medium range by mid/late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  78  96  76  94 /   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)  79  95  78  94 /   0  20   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  84  89  83  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 PM CDT this evening
     for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ330-335-350-
     355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TC
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...TC

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion