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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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841
FXUS64 KHGX 030637
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1237 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sea fog has become dense again tonight, and is expected to pose
  hazard to navigation into Tuesday morning. There is potential
  for further fog nightly for at least the next couple of nights.

- Unseasonably warm weather will continue through this week.

- There will be some chance for rain Wednesday, particularly in
  the northwestern parts of the area towards the Brazos Valley.
  More broad rain chances exist this weekend, along with some low
  potential for locally heavy rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1237 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Sea fog is at it again. Particularly on the lower waters, but also
in portions of lower Galveston Bay and its adjacent waters. That`s
mostly something to read about in the marine section below, but
there will also be some impact to coastal areas as well through
the night, particularly to Galveston itself as Scholes Field is
reporting 1/2 mile visibility at midnight. In general, any fog
that makes its way over land should generally not be quite so
severe, but it does indicate how low things can go in the most
affected locations. If you`re out driving late or have got a
morning commute to or very near the coast, be alert for
potentially dramatic changes in visibility in short stretches, and
adjust your driving accordingly!

While this episode of fog should come to an end around mid-
morning, our persistent onshore winds aren`t really going
anywhere, so for at least a couple more nights (and potentially
even more?) we`ll have to be on the lookout for more fog
development into the nighttime hours. Confidence on just how dense
that fog may be each night is...much lower. Mostly because fog is
chaotic evil, and seemingly exists to make me look dumb(er?). Or,
at least, that`s what I tell myself even though the reality is
more that we are working with a very tricky interplay between
low level humidity, winds, surface characteristics, vertical
mixing, and sea surface temperatures. My thinking is that with
winds expected to be veered a little bit due to a weak front
approaching, but stalling out to our north, we won`t have quite
the ideal wind direction for maxing out fog potential, and fog the
next night or two should be present, but perhaps not as dense as
we`ve seen. That is not a wager I would put a lot of money on,
though. Confidence is low, with a wide distribution of potential
fog outcomes.

As that onshore flow was mentioned not to be going anywhere,
neither are the unseasonably warm temps in place. The influx of
humid Gulf air will keep the temperature floor quite elevated.
Indeed, with forecast lows in the 60s (maybe even around 70 in the
warmest spots), lows this week look to be closer to average *high*
temperatures for the area than average lows. And with a floor like
that, we can similarly expect afternoon highs to be above average
as well. Highs in the 80s look become the norm inland, with the
moderating influence of Gulf waters keeping only the immediate
coast in the 70s.

Could there be anything to change that? Well, yes, we are not
devoid of alternate scenarios here. We`ll be looking for the
approach of cold fronts Wednesday and again this weekend. At this
point, all expectations are that they will fail to pass through
the area, and the forecast reflects this. Ridging over the
Southeast US looks simply too strong, deflecting both upper
troughs supporting the fronts off to the northeast far too early
to support a push all the way through the area. Confidence is
particularly high on the Wednesday front, in which LREF clustering
analysis indicates none of the four generated clusters even brings
the front into the area. There will be some rain chances,
particularly for the inland half of the area, as we get isentropic
upglide from the Gulf inflow...but the front itself should stop
well short.

This weekend is a little different story, but there`s a good bit
of emphasis on the "little" part of that phrase. In this case, all
of the clusters bring the front to at least the northern edge of
our forecast area, and the main difference between the scenarios
is how deeply it pushes into the area before washing out. There`s
good consensus that the amount will be not much, but less
consensus on how "not much" that will be. Ultimately, though, I
don`t think the spread in the guidance is so big that it will have
a huge influence on the resultant weather for the area. With a
boundary stalling out somewhere in our area, an upper trough off
to the west, and continued onshore low level flow, decent rain
chances seem obvious here. And with strong ensemble consensus in
precipitable water over the 90th percentile (the Euro ensemble
even has areas above the 97th percentile and the NAEFS explores
above the 99th percentile), some locally heavy rain has got to be
on the table if we can get some efficient convection going.

That said, the Euro ensemble`s Extreme Forecast Index is not
terribly impressed just yet. At its peak Sunday, it gives only the
western third or so of the area an EFI over 0.5 for rainfall, a
somewhat tenuous signal at most. That said, given the high PWATs
progged to be in place, and the synoptic situation described, all
it takes is a strong, efficient convective cell or training of
some convective cells over the wrong spot to create a localized
flooding rain issue. So, at this range, it`s something that`s on
the table and potential that needs to be monitored, accepting that
there is not a lot of confidence at this range. We`ll be
continuing to analyze the situation through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 529 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Not many changes from the previous cycle. Main question will be
handling of nocturnal degradation of flight conditions with CIGs
and/or VSBY limitations. When there was a discrepancy between the
two, my tendency was to favor persistence over guidance
(sometimes this was optimistic, sometimes pessimistic), but leave
opportunities for quick and easy amendment if needed, and to
signal alternate potential.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1237 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Area webcams and observations are showing continued worsening of
the fog, particularly on lower portions of the bays and their
adjacent Gulf waters, and so a dense fog advisory has been issued
for the waters through mid-morning. These types of conditions may
be anticipated for at least the next couple of nights as well.
There is relatively high confidence in seeing some amount of fog
around the coast, though there is little confidence for its
severity.

Beyond fog potential, expect light to moderate winds and low seas
to continue through the week. There may be some streamer shower
activity early in the mornings, and another slight chance of
showers Wednesday afternoon. More significant rain chances at the
coast and over the waters, though, look to hold off until the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  64  85  67  83 /   0  10  10  40
Houston (IAH)  66  83  68  83 /  10  20  10  20
Galveston (GLS)  65  73  66  73 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ330-335-350-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion