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773
FXUS64 KHGX 131626
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1126 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scatter to Widespread showers/storms early this week. Slight
  Risk (level 2 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall today and Tuesday.
  Ponding on roadways and street flooding will be possible.

- Hot weather returns during the second half of the week with
  highs in the upper 80s/90s and heat indicies in the 90s/triple
  digits.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1112 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Southeast Texas remains engulfed within a deep tropical airmass
today with satellite derived PWs around 2.0-2.2 inches. A robust
ridge is currently situated over the Northern Plains/Upper
Mississippi River Valley, though a trough over the SE CONUS is
anticipated to undercut it, pushing southwesterly towards our area.
This features is progged to push a slow moving frontal boundary into
southeast Texas later today, eventually stalling out. Forcing from
the front, in addition to midlevel PVA from the trough, will
continue to bring scattered to widespread showers/storms through
the early evening. The general pattern across CAMs depict another
round of convection pushing in from the north along the
aforementioned frontal boundary. This cluster is progged to
eventually collide with the activity already ongoing over SE
Texas, likely outputting higher rainfall rates wherever it occurs.
Regardless, the environment is already primed for high
precipitation efficiency, and thus locally heavy rainfall may
occur as a result.

A lull in rains is expected to develop this evening as daytime
heating and instability wanes. Some drier air filters in aloft,
generally above 400mb, but otherwise mid/low level RH remains very
moist with PWs still around/over 2.0 inches for Tuesday. With the
stalled frontal boundary and trough still draped over SE Texas, the
heavy rainfall threat should continue with scattered/widespread
storms expected throughout the daytime hours on Tuesday. Storms
should taper off into the evening again, much like the day before.

WPC has southeast Texas largely under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4)
of Excessive rainfall for today and Tuesday. Rainfall totals through
Tuesday night are expected to be around 1-3" but locally higher
amounts could reach 3-7" in spots. Ponding on roadways and street
flooding could occur, especially in urban/low lying areas with poor
drainage. If you encounter flood waters, turn around!

The heavy rainfall threat decreases into Wednesday as forcing &
instability are reduced. Rain chances will taper off during the
second half of the work week as ridging builds overhead. Conditions
then gradually heat up in the days following with highs reaching the
upper 80s/90s with heat indices in the 90s/triple digits. Rain
chances are currently slim, though some very isolated streamer
showers could develop during the overnight/early morning hours.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Some patchy MVFR cigs continue this morning near CLL to CXO, but
these should quickly lift back to VFR in the next couple hours.
SHRA and TSRA will develop near the coast in a few hours, pushing
northward through the Houston metro terminals. Meanwhile,
SHRA/TSRA will also be developing near the northern terminals
(CLL, UTS, CXO), pushing southward. These clusters will likely
collide somewhere near IAH/DWH and nearby sites. This will
continue through the afternoon, slowly waning into the evening
hours. Cigs will drop to MVFR/IFR north of the Houston metro,
though IAH and DWH will be right on the edge of MVFR/VFR. The
southern terminals will likely remain VFR. SHRA and possibly TSRA
will redevelop late in the period into Tuesday morning near the
coast, migrating inland again through the morning hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1112 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

S to SE winds around 10 to 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet are
expected throughout the week. Round of showers and thunderstorms are
expected through mid week, generally during the daytime hours. Some
occasional strong storms could produce locally higher winds, seas
and reduced visibility from heavy rainfall. Rain chances decrease
Wednesday and taper off into Thursday, though very isolated streamer
showers will remain possible during the overnight and early morning
hours.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  73  83  72  86 /  70  90  40  70
Houston (IAH)  74  83  75  88 /  60  80  30  70
Galveston (GLS)  80  88  83  89 /  50  80  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion