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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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713
FXUS64 KHGX 180010
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
610 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered rain shower activity to taper later this afternoon and
  evening.

- Areas of dense fog possible tonight into tomorrow morning.

- After a brief cool down on Friday, expect generally warmer than
  normal conditions this weekend into early next week. Record
  breaking warmth is possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1136 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Scattered showers will continue into the afternoon across our
southern and coastal counties. More isolated activity is expected
farther north / inland. Could not rule out some isolated showers
occuring into the overnight hours. As we head into the overnight
hours, the primary concern will be areas of fog. Fog may be dense
at times late tonight into tomorrow morning. Any fog is expected
to break by mid-morning.

A cold front will approach the region on Thursday. Southwest flow
and warm temperatures are expected ahead of the front, with highs
generally in the mid/upper 70s. The front reaches our northern
counties Thursday afternoon, moving offshore by the evening. Gusty
north to northeast winds, drier air, and falling temperatures are
expected in the front`s wake Thursday night. The air mass in
place on Friday will feature seasonably cool temperatures, with
highs generally in the 60s and lows mostly in the 40s. But the
seasonably cool temperatures will not be long for this world due
to the coming warm pattern change lurking in the longer range.

By the weekend into early next week, anomalous ridging coupled
with onshore low-level flow will result in an increasingly warm
and humid regime. It appears afternoon temperatures will easily be
well into the 70s during the Saturday-Tuesday time frame. And
given the strength of the ridge, we could have days reach the low
80s, which would place us near record territory. So for those
yearning for sweater weather leading up to Christmas, it appears
you`ll have to live with t-shirt and flip flop weather instead.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 610 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Mixture of IFR to VFR ceilings/visibilities as we head into
Wednesday evening, but expect widespread IFR/LIFR conditions to
develop over the next few hours. The onset of fog may end up being
a few hours earlier than anticipated based on current trends. In
addition to low ceilings, widespread dense fog is expected to
develop across the area. This is most likely to occur between a
05Z-15Z window going into Thursday morning. While visibilities
will begin to improve after 15-16Z, ceilings will take a bit
longer with improvement to MVFR around 18Z before widespread VFR
conditions return around 20Z as a frontal boundary pushes through
the area. Expect winds to gradually shift from southwesterly to
northerly during the afternoon with wind speeds generally in the
7-10 kt range. For the northern terminals, could see occasional
wind gusts up to 20 kt during the afternoon hours.

Going into Thursday evening/night, we will be monitoring the
potential for LLWS as a LLJ develops over the area in the wake of
the previously mentioned frontal boundary. Winds around
2,000-4,000 ft will be around 35 kt generally after 03Z/Friday,
which could potentially bring ~35-40 kt of LLWS at FL020.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1136 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Scattered showers are likely to continue into the afternoon hours.
An isolated thunderstorm offshore is possible. Relatively light
east to southeast winds expected through tonight, with areas of
fog developing overnight. Fog may be dense at times, especially in
the upper bays late tonight into tomorrow morning. A front pushes
offshore Thursday evening, bringing gusty north to northeast
winds overnight Thursday into early Friday morning. A Small Craft
Advisory may be warranted. Winds weaken and veer on Friday. The
potential for overnight and morning fog will need to be monitored
for this weekend into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  61  76  41  66 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  61  77  47  66 /  10   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  62  71  54  64 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Thursday for GMZ330-335-350-
     355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion