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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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028
FXUS64 KHGX 102319
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
619 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing heat risk with "feels-like" temperatures around
  97-107 degrees (36-42 Celsius) through at least this weekend.

- Rip Current Statement in effect through this evening, with the
  risk of Rip currents across Gulf-facing beaches continuing
  throughout the week.

- Isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorm chances daily,
  mostly during the afternoon hours. Chances will increase Sunday
  into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Isolated to scattered shower activity early this afternoon will
continue through the rest of the afternoon with maybe a few claps
of thunder in some spots. Surface high pressure to the east is
continuing moist southeasterly flow across the region, but with
the mid-level ridge overhead, the robustness of convective activity
is limited. With dew points ranging in the mid-70s to lower 80s
resulting in apparent temperatures nearing or exceeding 100
degrees, heat impacts during the afternoon will become more
pronounced as we advance through the rest of the week, as
Moderate HeatRisk will affect those who are sensitive to heat
and/or those without adequate cooling/hydration options available
for multiple days.

Daily afternoon isolated to scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms with heat indicies mostly at or above 100 degrees
will continue over the next couple of days as subtropical ridging
remains overhead. A slight uptick in heat indicies going into and
through the weekend warrants monitoring as they near Heat
Advisory territory.

Otherwise, an area of tropical low pressure development over the
next couple of days near the Bay of Campeche will be worth
monitoring for what looks like another push of tropical moisture
into the region this weekend. At this time, the NHC has only a 10%
chance of development into a tropical cyclone, with the movement
of this disturbance making landfall over eastern Mexico late this
weekend. Coupled with an anomalous mid-level troughing feature
for this time of year deepening over the Plains, as advertised by
the majority of ensemble guidance, the stubborn subtropical
ridging over southeast Texas would weaken. Under this scenario of
weakening mid-level heights, a very moist airmass, and possible
frontal lift would provide for an opportunity for a very wet
period that would be favored beginning as early as late this
weekend and lasting into (at least) early next week.

Young

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VFR conditions currently across SE TX sites along with SE winds at
07-13 KTS with occasional gusts up to 20 KTS. A llvl jet of
around 25 KTS will build overhead overnight and may keep winds
near 10 KTS instead of relaxing to below 5 KTS. MVFR cigs are
expected to return late tonight into Thu morning, gradually
lifting after 15Z. For Thu, mostly VFR conditions are expected
along with S-SE winds between 08-14 KTS with occasional gusts of
around 20 KTS, in particular during the afternoon hours. We could
see some iso showers pass through during the day, but chances are
low (less than 10%).

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds are expected
throughout the rest of the work week with seas of 2 to 5 feet.
Caution flags are in effect for tonight as sustained winds 15-20
knots are anticipated for the bays and nearshore waters. Continued
elevated winds/seas will need to be monitored, especially for
this weekend as seas near 6 to 7 feet offshore. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms will be possible each day with rain chances
rising over the weekend into early next week. A Rip Current
Statement is in effect until 9 pm this evening for moderate to
high risk of rip currents across Gulf facing beaches. The moderate
to high risk rip current conditions are anticipated to continue
through early next week.

Young/03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  93  77  93 /   0  10   0  10
Houston (IAH)  78  91  78  92 /   0  10  10  20
Galveston (GLS)  82  88  82  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Thursday morning for
     GMZ330-335-350-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Young
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...Young

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion