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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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824
FXUS64 KHGX 172247
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
547 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms today, with highest chances
   along the coast.

 - Less humidity Friday and Saturday with no precipitation chances.

 - Humidity returns Sunday along with daily diurnal storm chances
   into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

The well-advertised tropical moisture plume has arrived and
associated showers and thunderstorms are currently moving onshore.
These should peak in coverage late this morning into afternoon, with
highest chances along the coast and south of I-10. Heavy downpours
are the main threat, so use caution if traveling. That all said,
given the increased capping/subsidence with the strong upper ridge
moving westward this afternoon, the more "scary" looking CAMs may
not necessarily verify. In any case, storms will gradually taper off
through the evening. The ridge will usher in drier air overnight
into Friday. We will see a brief reprieve from the humidity with
heat indicies staying below 100. With the dry air and capping from
the ridge, precipitation is not expected anywhere, even along the
coast. Similar conditions will prevail Saturday as the ridge remains
in place between two troughs on either side of it.

The ridge will begin to slightly weaken Sunday and the higher
humidities will return albeit slightly lower than values that lead
to recent Heat Advisories. Nonetheless they will still generally
range from 102-105F. Precipitation chances should remain minimal.
This large-scale pattern will remain in place through much of next
week, with no significant systems on the horizon. Except hot
temperatures, humidity, and diurnal convection to persist each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 538 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Lingering showers/storms near LBX continue to dissipate and
move WNW. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail at all sites with SE
winds at 6-10 kts. Winds become light and VRB overnight for
inland sites, then increase and turn ~E at 6-10 kts by late
tomorrow morning. A dry air mass will push westward into our
region throughout the night and tomorrow, limiting potential for
convection. Any showers/storms that do develop will likely be
diurnally driven and isolated in nature. Otherwise, a dry and VFR
day is in store for tomorrow.

MLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Easterly sustained winds near 20 kts will continue through around
midnight tonight. They will remain breezy through Friday at 15-20
kts, before becoming light on Saturday and eventually veering to the
southeast. Seas of 4 to 6 ft will continue through Friday morning
before subsiding to 3 to 5 ft into Saturday morning and further
subsiding to 2 to 3 ft thereafter. Showers and thunderstorms remain
likely through today along the coast and over offshore waters. Drier
air Friday into the weekend will significantly curtail any
additional chances, though some will remain offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  97  71  97 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  77  94  75  95 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  84  90  83  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 AM CDT Friday for
     GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AP
AVIATION...MLG
MARINE...AP

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion