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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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844
FXUS64 KHGX 151107
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
607 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and humid conditions continue through the end of the work
  week with heat index values in the 90s Thursday/Friday.

- Rain chances increase over the weekend as a cold front moves
  into the region. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

- Seasonal conditions expected in the wake of the front going into
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

The warming trend continues as we add on a degree or two to
Wednesday`s high temperatures as they peak mainly in the mid 80s.
Southwesterly flow aloft continues to filter in drier
air...well...aloft with model guidance still reflecting much drier
air above 850mb remaining in place through at least Wednesday. This
drier air aloft also comes with warmer air aloft leading to a
capping inversion. There is enough low-level moisture in place
beneath the cap to squeeze out sporadic light rain/sprinkles...but
not expecting anything of note. The potential exception to this is
for the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods on late Wednesday
afternoon/evening. Some thunderstorms may develop out in
western/central Texas along the dry line, and there is a non-zero
chance that a few storms skirt near our northern counties.
Especially with with favorable placement of a jet streak (right
entrance region) and a LLJ, but the storms will be fighting an
uphill battle if they move this direction due to previously
mentioned capping inversion. Unsurprisingly, the CAMs (me included)
aren`t that excited about anything more than showers making their
way into Southeast Texas.

PW values begin to increase towards the end of the work week, so
some isolated streamer showers will remain possible. By the end of
the work week, 850mb temperatures increase near the 90th percentile
leading to high temperatures peaking in the upper 80s. The
probability of high temperatures reaching the 90 degree mark are low
on Thursday/Friday, but they aren`t zero! Either way, the elevated
low-level moisture will lead to heat index values in the low to mid
90s on Thursday and Friday. Low temperatures will be mainly in the
upper 60s to low 70s through the work week. Going into the weekend
is when the forecast gets interesting once again as a cold front
approaches.

An upper level trough with an embedded upper low will transition
from the Pacific Northwest on Thursday to the Four Corners region by
Friday. Surface low pressure subsequently develops through lee
cyclogenesis near Oklahoma/Kansas. This low then travels
northeastward towards the Great Lakes region, which pushes a cold
front into Southeast Texas late Saturday afternoon/evening. Moisture
convergence along the front leads to PW values surging near or above
the 90th percentile (~1.57"). Showers and storms are likely along
and ahead of the frontal boundary as it pushes through the region.
Some of these storms will be capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall with rainfall rates likely peaking in the 2-3+"/hr range.
These storms will be more progressive than what we experienced over
the past weekend, but these high rainfall rates could lead to
localized instances of flooding especially in low-lying areas and
areas with poor drainage. As a result, WPC has outlined areas
generally north of I-10 in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) of
excessive rainfall on Saturday. Showers may linger into Sunday
morning until the drier air fully filters in. Northeasterly winds
will be a bit breezy in the wake of the front, especially near the
coast through Sunday. A coastal Wind Advisory is possible.

Since we are catching the tail-end of this front, surface high
pressure looks to quickly move out to the east on Monday. There is
some variance on exactly how quickly this occurs, but the general
trend is for low-level moisture to begin to increase on Monday. This
pairs with an embedded shortwave trough passing through the region,
which brings us another chance of showers and storms.

Don`t worry, we won`t end this discussion talking about rain
chances! Let`s take a look at probabilistic guidance for post-FROPA
temperatures once again as you`re gonna want to hear this! If you`ve
been keeping up with the AFD`s over the past few nights (first of
all thank you for being dedicated...you`re the real MVP), then you
know the probability for high temperatures below 80 degrees on
Sunday and Monday were already fairly high. Whelp...they got even
higher! The probability for high temperatures below 80 degrees is
now 85-100% areawide for Sunday and Monday! Probabilities gradually
trend down beyond that, but still remain in the 60-90% range for
Tuesday. But wait, there`s more!

The probability for low temperatures below 60 degrees has increased
to 70-90% for areas north of the Houston metro area and 30-50%
elsewhere for Saturday night. For Sunday night, these probabilities
peak in the 60-90% range areawide (except along the coast)...and
again they gradually trend downward Monday night but they are still
generally in the 50-90% range. While the probabilities are trending
higher for cooler temperatures behind the upcoming cold front, it`s
important to keep in mind that there`s still plenty of time for the
forecast to change and evolve. Don`t worry, that won`t stop me from
getting excited either! :D

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 539 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

MVFR CIGs and sparse pockets of IFR should lift and eventually
clear out later this morning. VFR conditions return by the early
afternoon with gusty south to southeasterly winds prevailing
throughout the day, later tapering off in the evening. MVFR CIGs
fill in again overnight with IFR CIGs possible early Thursday
morning.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Moderate onshore flow will persist into at least midweek, so small
craft should exercise caution through at least Wednesday. There will
be intermittent periods towards the end of the work week where winds
increase near the caution flag threshold again. Due to the
persistent onshore flow, slightly elevated water levels remain in
the forecast throughout the week as P-ETSS guidance continues to
reflect water levels reaching 2.5-3.0 ft above MLLW during times of
high tide. This could result in some wave run-up along Gulf-facing
beaches along with increased risk of rip currents. A cold front and
associated showers/storms are expected to push offshore late
Saturday/early Sunday bringing a period of elevated offshore winds
and seas that will likely prompt Small Craft Advisories going into
early next week.

Batiste

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Still monitoring a couple of gauges that are currently cresting in
action stage (as of Tuesday evening) in the Lavaca/Navidad River
basin following Sunday`s heavy rainfall event. The Navidad River at
Morales (MRAT2) and at Strane Park (LSNT2) are currently cresting in
action stage and are expected to fall out of it by Wednesday
morning. These rises are based on routed flow from upstream.
Remember that you can monitor updated river forecasts via the NWS
NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/)

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  85  69  88  69 /  10  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  85  71  87  71 /  10   0  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  80  74  80  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion