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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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549
FXUS64 KHGX 020659
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
159 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY, TROPICAL...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tropical Depression Edouard will continue to move WNW through SE
Texas today.

- The primary threat through tonight is heavy rainfall. A Flood
Watch is in effect thru 7PM. Highest risk of heavy rain is generally
north of I-10 and along and east of I-45. Any  convective bands that
do develop have the potential to produce  heavy rainfall and flash
flooding.

- WPC has upgraded portions of the Piney Woods to a Moderate Risk
  (level 3 of 4) for excessive rainfall today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

The remnants of Edouard will continue to move WNW across SE Texas
today (currently located in the eastern Piney Woods). Forecasting
the rainfall has been on the tricky side, and the materialization of
heavier rainfall has been delayed from initial forecasts.

Overnight, Edouard had a few convective bursts close to the core, as
well as some developing convective bands further from the center.
Overnight rainfall closer to the core has been estimated to be
between 6-8" at the time of this AFD. With PWAT values around 2.2-
2.6" and decent instability, expect to see the trend of banding
continue overnight.

Once we tap into daytime heating in addition to the moisture rich
environment, we should continue to see convective banding through
the day Wednesday. This may be further aided by the afternoon sea
breeze. The majority of the rainfall is expected to remain north of
I-10 and along and east of I-45. There is some uncertainty with
Brazos and Madison Counties...if the depression moves more west-
northwest, these locations could see a little more rainfall than
what is forecast.

Current forecast has a swath of 6-8" rainfall totals in a SE-->NW
orientation from Northern Liberty to Houston County through
Thursday. Again, this will all depend on where the heaviest
convective bands set up, and where any bands train...but current
thoughts are that our eastern and northernmost counties will
experience the most impacts from Edouard. Isolated higher amounts
will be possible in those locations if forward motion slows and with
any training storms.

Jumping back to the sea breeze...while most of the rainfall is
expected to occur in the aforementioned locations, the sea breeze
could trigger storms south of I-10 closer to the coast (especially
since we are in a moisture-rich environment). Some of these storms
could produce brief heavy downpours with localized instances of
flooding (urban and low-lying areas and areas with poor drainage).

Moving through the rest of the week, the ridge of high pressure will
build back in and we will see rain chances decrease significantly
north of I-10. Closer to the coast, the combination of daytime
heating, the sea breeze, and residual moisture will result in daily
chances of diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms.

Heat and humidity will return by the end of the week as highs push
back into the 90s and heat indices return to the triple digits.
Cloud cover should keep us below Heat Advisory thresholds through
the end of the week. Will need to monitor this weekend as indices
creep towards Advisory levels.

Bailey

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Tropical Depression Edouard continues to impact the upcoming TAF
cycle. We`re primarily forecasting VFR conditions, with the
potential for MVFR CIGs and elevated winds to develop around any
SH/TS. Currently winds are between 5-10 kts with isolated gusts
(particularly north of I-10) between 15-20 kts. The main impact
in question is the backing winds as the rotation to our northeast
pushes inland. Elevated winds and lowering flight conditions will
be heavily influenced by where rainbands set up. Most models
agree that as this storm pushes to our north, banding will occur
on the southern side of Edouard to impact our region overnight
tonight and into the early morning. There is high uncertainty
between the models on where exactly these narrow bands will set
up, which led to a broad inclusion of SHRA and VCTS through
roughly 16Z in our TAFs, primarily north of I-10 and along or
east of I-45. Our southern sites aren`t out of the woods with SHRA
chances yet, as seabreeze initiation settles back in tomorrow
afternoon between 20-24Z. After these afternoon shower chances,
winds settle in mostly from the south with VFR conditions to
finish off the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 146 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Light southwesterly winds this morning will give way to light
onshore flow this afternoon. Expect onshore flow to continue through
the rest of the week with seas around 1-3 feet. Daily chances of
showers and thunderstorms are anticipated.

Bailey


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 146 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Polk County has received the majority of the rainfall overnight
from Edouard. Current radar estimates show rainfall totals of
7-10" across the county. There is slow forward motion with TD
Edouard, so expecting those totals to increase over the next few
hours.

As Edouard continues to push NW, it is expected to produce
a swath of rainfall amounts totaling 6-8" with isolated higher
amounts possible over the next 48 hours. Rainfall rates will reach
up to 3-4"/hour, leading to increased flash flood potential.

The location of these higher amounts will be dependent on where
the heaviest convective bands setup, if forward motion continues
to be slow, and if any training occurs. Current thought is that
the Piney Woods will receive the highest rainfall amounts.

Based on this current rainfall forecast, we anticipate widespread
rises to action stage along area rivers with isolated minor to
moderate river flooding possible especially where the heaviest
rainfall sets up. The primary basins of concern include the San
Jacinto and Trinity rivers. Potential impacts include flooding of
streets and low-lying areas. If the higher totals materialize,
more significant flood impacts may occur. Residents in these areas
should monitor weather updates closely and be prepared to take
necessary actions especially if traveling at night.

Bailey/Batiste



&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 146 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Edouard has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression and all
Tropical Storm Warnings have been canceled. The threat for heavy
rainfall will continue today for areas north of I-10 and along and
east of I-45 as remnants of Edouard continue to move across
Southeast Texas.

Bailey

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  75  93  74  95 /  60  40  10  30
Houston (IAH)  78  93  77  94 /  30  50  10  50
Galveston (GLS)  84  91  83  91 /  10  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-196-
     198>200-212>214-300-313.

     Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ163-164-
     177>179-200-300.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ335-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...BSM
MARINE...Bailey

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion