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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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058
FXUS64 KHGX 072259
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
459 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light showers possible tonight and tomorrow, mainly west of I-45.

- Increasing east and northeast winds and building seas tonight
  into Sunday across the marine areas.

- Cooler weather possible by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 453 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

It is a comfortable Saturday afternoon with temperatures running in
the 70s to low 80s, light northeast to east winds and low humidity.
Per visible satellite imagery we can see mid to high clouds
migrating east into our region, with broken to overcast coverage
likely reaching our region from the southwest late this
afternoon/early evening. Increased cloud cover is associated to a
developing coastal trough along the middle/lower TX coast and
vorticity maxima associated to an approaching upper low currently
centered over Baja California/northwest Mexico. As the upper low
moves east-northeast across Texas and interacts with the surface
trough, rain chances will be on the increase, particularly for
central and south Texas. Forecast soundings show a gradual increase
in low to mid level moisture from the southwest later tonight into
Sunday, resulting in increasing rain chances. The main question
remains how far east these showers will reach the region. As of now,
better forcing and moisture look to remain confined to areas along
and west of I-45, particularly for our southwestern counties. Latest
Hi-res guidance keeps this trend, with the RRFS solutions even drier
than the HRRR, suggesting showers as early as 6 am Sunday. The HRRR
brings some light activity overnight. Overall, expect rain showers,
moderate at times for areas west of I-10 through the day, with the
best chances in our southwestern counties. Continued chances for
very light rain/sprinkles (10-20%)will persist for areas east of I-
45 through early evening.

Clouds and light rain chances will continue in the forecast for
Monday and Tuesday as the aforementioned upper low moves across TX.
Again, best rain chances will remain roughly for our western areas
and south of I-10. Lingering impulses of energy and surface
convergence associated with an approaching cold front will result in
increasing rain and thunderstorm chances by midweek. In the wake of
the front, Mid to upper ridge builds in, leading to drier conditions
through the weekend. Medium range guidance brings a surge of cooler
air due to a deepening low over the northeastern CONUS during this
time-frame. GFS/ECMWF show 850mb temperatures dropping into the 5 to
10C Friday into the weekend, especially for our northeastern
counties. Confidence in how far south this cooler airmass will sink
up remains low to moderate. For now, will keep temperatures as NBM
suggests with highs in the low 70s and lows in the 40s and low 50s
(Houston metro and coast). Will continue to monitor temperatures and
adjust accordingly in the coming days.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 453 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Light east flow will become more northeast by tomorrow morning.
SHRA is likely to the west of our region, but dry air may limit
rain chances over our terminals. For now, the only mention of rain
is the PROB30 at CLL. Otherwise, all other TAFs are just cloudy
(VFR cigs) with a light NE wind tomorrow. We cannot rule out
brief, isolated SHRA capable of brief MVFR conditions. We`ll
monitor the latest forecast soundings this evening in case things
are looking a little more moist with a better chance of SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 453 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

A coastal trough developing off the lower and middle Texas coast
will result in moderate east to northeast winds this afternoon and
evening. Winds are expected to reach Advisory level overnight into
late Sunday, with seas up to 5 to 6 ft. A Small Craft Advisory is in
effect from midnight through late Sunday for all waters and
Matagorda Bay. Winds over Galveston Bay will remain a tad below
criteria, but will continue to monitor trends later tonight for a
possible inclusion to the Advisory. Light to moderate northeast
winds can be expected on Monday, becoming light and from the ESE,
through midweek. Light to moderate offshore flow returns Thursday
with the next FROPA.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  56  69  55  70 /  30  40  40  20
Houston (IAH)  58  72  58  71 /  10  30  20  20
Galveston (GLS)  64  73  64  73 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to midnight CST Sunday
     night for GMZ330.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until midnight CST tonight
     for GMZ350-355-370-375.

     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight CST
     Sunday night for GMZ350-370.

     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday
     for GMZ355-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion