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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

775
FXUS64 KHGX 231742
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1242 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions expected through early next week.

- Potentially hazardous winds and seas over the Gulf late
  Saturday through Monday.

- Potential change to a wetter pattern by the end of the month or
  early November.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Expect mostly clear skies today, with inland highs in the mid-upper
80s and coastal highs in the upper 70s-low 80s as ridging persists
over our CWA. Overnight lows will generally be in the mid 50s-mid
60s, with coastal locations seeing lows closer to 70. The overnight
hours will also bring a gentle to moderate SE breeze for our
nearshore and offshore waters, reintroducing some Gulf moisture near
the surface that has been absent for the past few days. As a result,
dewpoints will increase and creep closer to our overnight
temperatures, creating a moist environment with a potential for
patchy fog, particularly in areas along I-10 and west of I-45 (mostly
outside the city).

Through the weekend, sfc high pressure will move onto the US East Coast
from Canada, interacting with low pressure over the Bahamas to
create a tighter pressure gradient over the Western Atlantic and
Gulf. By Saturday afternoon/evening, sustained winds pick up out of
the E/ESE at 15-20 kts over our nearshore and offshore waters. This
wind, alongside a long easterly fetch over the Gulf, may make Small
Craft Advisories necessary throughout the weekend and into next
week. The extension of a sfc ridge axis southwest into our CWA will also
bring some slightly cooler air, bringing daytime highs down into the
upper 70s-mid 80s Sunday-Wednesday.

Focusing on Tuesday onward, we do see PoPs return primarily over
Matagorda Bay as an upper-level trough brings in some lobes of
vorticity and moisture from the EPAC/Gulf. However, models don`t
seem particularly excited about rain chances since dry air from the
aforementioned high to our NE keeps the low-levels pretty hostile
to convective development. Closer to Halloween, we do see long-
range guidance suggest a cold front, but the timing and intensity
of that cold front is still uncertain this far out. There also
continues to be signals for a potential wetter pattern going into
early November.

JMG / Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

VFR conditions likely prevail through the TAF period. Light winds
become SE this afternoon. The low level atmosphere is expected to
become more humid overnight into the early morning hours on
Saturday. This may result in patchy fog (mostly in rural areas),
though the guidance is not indicating a strong signal for fog at
this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

The primary marine concern will be the increasing fetch across the
Gulf this weekend into early next week. High pressure over the
northeastern United States coupled with a trough near Florida will
steepen the low-level pressure gradient, resulting in a gradual
increase in easterly winds and seas across much of the Gulf. There
is some uncertainty regarding how E vs ESE vs ENE the overall
fetch will be. A ENE fetch would tend to push the highest seas to
the south of our region, while an E, and especially ESE, fetch
could easily bring 6-8 foot seas to our offshore waters. At a
minimum, there is an increasing risk for Small Craft Advisory
level conditions in the Gulf waters starting as early as Saturday
evening and lasting as late as Monday night. The highest seas are
anticipated Monday afternoon. Beyond then, winds and seas are
expected to decrease.

Self

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  56  86  61  82 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  62  86  64  81 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  73  80  72  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JMG / Self
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion