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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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500
FXUS64 KHGX 311105
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
605 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- NHC continues to monitor an area of low pressure drifting WNW
  off the coast of SE LA.

- A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
  morning. Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be issued for
  parts of the Upper Texas coast today

- Increased rain chances Tuesday, some could be locally heavy.

- Daily chances for scattered showers/storms continues beyond
  midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION and TROPICAL...
Issued at 141 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

A small but persistent area of convection persists off the coast of
southeast LA this morning in association with AL97. An ASCAT pass
earlier this evening shows a defined circulation, but with winds
generally in the 15-30kt range. A Hurricane Hunter is scheduled
to take a look at things this morning. Guidance generally takes
this area of disturbed wx west-northwest today and tonight. On
this track, it should be somewhere in the vicinity of SE TX or SW
LA Tuesday. Most 0z guidance shows some good clustering around the
Sabine Pass area, Intensity-wise generally in the 25-45kt range,
but noted that 18z Google Deepmind mean was a bit closer to 50kt.
This system is small, and until we get some plane data sampling
its peripheral environment...there remains some uncertainty how
everything will unfold. Watches/Warnings may be required for
portions of the Upper Texas coast today.

Keeping in mind the aforementioned uncertainties, here`s our
preliminary thinking which will likely be refined later this
morning:

Today: continued hot with a speckling of isolated daytime
shower/storms. Most of us won`t see much.

Tonight: a slight increase in wind speeds and rain chances
(generally east and southeast of the Galveston area).

Tuesday: the system begins making its way to the coast. Should it
go into locations to our east...then locations further to the
west will likely see rain chances/impacts be tapered down from
what`ll be in tonight`s forecast package. Hopefully the morning
recon will refine things...

- Rainfall: Some 1-3" totals on average generally E/SE of a line
  from Huntsville to Galveston. Reasonable worst case scenario
  (based off 90th percentile and tropical rainfall climatology) up
  to 5-7". There remains a Slight Risk of Excessive rainfall in
  the SE quadrant of the CWA. Localized street flooding will be
  monitored for those 2-4"/hr rain rates.

- Winds: with considerable uncertainty...maybe some gusts to TS strength
  in our eastern coastal waters and Chambers County.

- Surge: not much of a concern in terms of coastal flooding.
  Maybe some elevated wave runup near and to the right of where
  the center goes in.

- Rivers/hydro: No widespread concerns. Exceptions would be on a localized
  level where rises would occur where any of the highest amounts
  of rain falls in a short time period.

- Marine & Aviation: see below

The deepest PW air moves north Tuesday night. Rain coverage
should diminish but not be eliminated. With fairly stagnant
heights around 591dm for much of the week, a continued onshore
wind, and intermittent fluxes of higher PW air, I`d generally look
for temps near or just above seasonable norms along with diurnally
driven scattered showers and tstms on a daily basis. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 519 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

For today, expect prevailing SE winds to develop by afternoon. One
wild card in the forecast is the very high moisture levels pushing
in from the east and the Gulf. Models are not showing much
coverage today. However, we cannot rule out widely scattered
shra/tsra given the moisture. For now, we have only added VCSH
near the coast.

A system in the Gulf may become a tropical storm today, and
influence our weather by tonight. Towards the end of the TAF
period, we are expecting winds to increase somewhat from the N to
NE along with an increasing chance of rain. Depending on the exact
track of the system, we cannot rule out gustier winds and heavier
shra/tsra tomorrow. Higher chance of sub-VFR conditions tomorrow
as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 141 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of low pressure
and disturbed weather off the coast of southeast Louisiana. A
short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to
form before the system reaches the Upper Texas or southwestern
Louisiana coasts on Tuesday. Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings
may be required for portions of the upper Texas coast today.
Mariners are advised to monitor the forecast for changes and
updates.

As described above in the main discussion text, considering the
small size of this system, I suspect eastern parts of the marine
area will be much more prone to impacts in terms of navigation.
Galveston Bay and adjacent waters will see an increase in precip
coverage late Monday night and Tuesday. Some cells could be on the
strong side with gusts to or above 35kt. The threat of
waterspouts cannot be ruled out...moreso for locations east of
wherever the center becomes situated. To the west of the center,
we`re probably looking at 15g25kt winds and 3-5ft seas. Improving
conditions are anticipated Tuesday late afternoon and
night...though intermittent scattered tstms may be an issue
throughout the week. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 100  77  95  76 /  20  20  40  40
Houston (IAH)  98  78  92  78 /  20  30  80  40
Galveston (GLS)  92  82  90  82 /  30  70  90  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion