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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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380
FXUS64 KHGX 101121
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
621 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Deeper tropical moisture will be moving back into the region
  today and should provide 30-60% chances of showers and
  thunderstorms each day through this weekend. Overall coverage
  should be highest across the southern half of the region.

- Let`s keep an eye out for even better chances of precipitation
  Monday-Tuesday across all of the area. Localized heavy rain
  cannot be ruled out.

- Things begin to dry out (and temperatures warm) during the
  second half of the work week as higher pressure filters in from
  the east.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

On the back side of the inverted troffiness situated across south
Texas and Mexico, and with a continued southerly llvl flow, deeper
Gulf moisture is set to begin moving back into the upper Texas
coastal waters early this morning and inland during the day. PW`s
should climb into the 1.9-2.2" range by the end of the day. This
should bring an uptick in overall scattered shower & tstm coverage
to the region today...and a bit moreso this weekend as the
tropical airmass remains in place. Precip should mainly be diurnally
driven (increasing development offshore and near the coast late
at night and morning then transitioning inland during the day and
early evening). Not everyone will see rain, and those that do
it`s not currently looking like a whole-day affair. But those
with outdoor plans should plan for some intermittent alternatives.
Temps should be a touch below what we`ve seen the last several
days considering more cloudiness & scattered rain.

Ridge currently centered off the SoCal coast will strengthen and
track across the Rockies and into the nctl US later this weekend
into early next week. Weak troffiness currently seen on water vapor
imagery tracking eastward across the northern Plains will eventually
circle back around and under the ridge axis and toward Texas Monday
and Tuesday. This should further enhance precip coverage those days.
We`ll probably need to keep an eye out for the highest qpf during
that time period as there are some hints of some weak diffluence
aloft and some potentially slower storm motions.

High pressure should expand ssewd across the nctl Gulf states &
southeastern states during the second half of next week and give
the troffiness & deeper moisture over SE Tx a nudge westward.
Wednesday should be somewhat of a transition day with lower, but
still scattered, precip chances. Thursday and Friday we should be
back to our beloved SE TX wx with warmer temps and just some
isolated daily rain chances.

LDavis/47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Isolated to widely scattered showers are seen moving into sites
KGLS and KLBX. A few strikes have been seen in these cells, but
latest satellite and radar trends have shower weaker storms. The
main concern for this TAF period is the potential for showers and
thunderstorms later this morning and afternoon. Uncertainty remains
about the timing and coverage of showers and storms. For example,
the latest HRRR runs have backed off on scattered shower development
while the WRF models show scattered to numerous showers and storms
late this morning and into the afternoon. The main change with this
cycle was to add TEMPOs/PROB30s to our southern TAF sites for the
morning time period for thunderstorms. Uncertainty remains high with
this forecast and PROB30s were maintained for the afternoon round of
storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

A continued 10-15kt onshore flow will persist with 2-4ft seas today
into next week. The primary marine concern will be for late night
through early afternoon storms this weekend. More numerous
activity is anticipated Sunday night through and Tuesday.
Widespread severe weather is not anticipated, though gusts to
~35kt and locally higher seas are possible in and near any
isolated more intense cells.

LDavis/47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  94  77  93  76 /  30  20  30  10
Houston (IAH)  93  78  92  77 /  40  20  40  10
Galveston (GLS)  90  84  90  83 /  40  30  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LDavis
AVIATION...Williams
MARINE...LDavis

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion