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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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148
FXUS64 KHGX 101655
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1155 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms today. Locally heavy
  downpours likely. Isolated stronger storm possible.

- Pattern expected to trend drier and hotter this week, especially
  beyond Tuesday.

- Some uncertainty regarding how long the drier pattern holds.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1055 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

A plume of deep tropical moisture is pushing into SE Texas today.
The plume contains 2.0-2.5 inch PWATs. Within the envelope of
deep moisture is a weak mid/upper disturbance, helping to enhance
lift over the middle and upper Texas Coast. Radar has shown
scattered shower/thunderstorm activity pushing northward from the
Gulf and into SE Texas this morning, bringing locally heavy
downpours as well as a few locally higher gusts over 30 MPH.
Storms have thus far moved fast enough to mitigate the flood risk.
But we cannot rule out a slower storm and/or training of storms
at some point today. So we`ll have to monitor the radar closely
for potential localized flooding, especially considering the
amount of PWAT available. We also cannot rule out an isolated
stronger thunderstorm or two during peak daytime heating this
afternoon. The best chance of locally heavy rain and
thunderstorms will be across our southern and coastal counties.
That being said, guidance has generally underestimated
shower/thunderstorm potential across our northern and inland-most
zones over the last few days. So a few heavier showers or
thunderstorms in Piney Woods and Brazos Valley are on the table.

Beyond today, the pattern becomes drier and hotter as ridging
takes hold. I doubt we can suppress the atmosphere enough to
prevent isolated to widely scattered seabreeze activity on
Tuesday, thus the low PoPs some of you see in your location
specific forecast tomorrow. But the dry and seasonably hot/humid
forecast remains in place for the second half of the week. The one
caveat may be the eastward progression of the upper ridge, which
eventually results in very deep onshore flow that extends well
into the mid levels (up to 500 MB). This suggests the atmosphere
could become increasingly moisture rich as we approach the end of
the week. In addition, global guidance is showing a ML disturbance
that pushes into NE Mexico / S TX towards the end of the week. A
slight northward nudge in the system`s trajectory coupled with the
increasing deep LL/ML flow from the Gulf could easily change a
dry forecast into a wetter one. Something to keep in mind.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Scattered shra/tstms across the southern 2 tiers of counties closer
to the coast late this morning. Brief heavy downpours and short
lived MVFR cigs/vis look to be the primary issue with these cells
for the next 2-3 hours. While overall coverage diminishes at the
metro airports after about 20z, outflows could generate some
additional daytime activity further north. Fast moving NNE
outflow/precip south of the Matagorda Bay area could possibly make
it toward the LBX area, so that`ll be worth keeping an eye on.
Otherwise, all activity should diminish this evening with the loss
of heating with mainly VFR conditions prevailing overnight. Though
guidance indicates mainly dry conditions on Tuesday, wouldn`t be
surprised to see some isolated seabreeze activity. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1055 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Shower and thunderstorm activity should continue into the early
afternoon before decreasing in coverage later today. Isolated
stronger thunderstorms capable of 30-35 knot gusts are possible.
An isolated shower or storm will be possible over the Gulf and
near the coast Tuesday morning, as well as along the seabreeze
boundary later Tuesday morning into the afternoon. Otherwise, the
pattern is expected to turn drier during the second half of the
week. Winds through Tuesday should be light to moderate from the
south to southeast w/ 1-3 ft seas. By the second half of the week,
south to southeast winds and seas are expected to increase as a
ridge builds to our east. By Thursday and Friday, sustained winds
could approach 20 knots in some areas. Seas well offshore could
approach 5 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  96  76  98 /  10  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  79  96  79  97 /  10  20   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  83  90  83  90 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion