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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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386
FXUS64 KHGX 051129
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
629 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation chances transition to the coastal waters through
  midweek as some drier air filters in to inland portions of the
  region.

- Rain chances return during the second half of the week, mainly
  across southern parts of Southeast Texas, as a coastal trough
  becomes re-established offshore.

- Hazardous marine conditions (winds/seas) are expected today and
  this evening, and then again later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Surface high pressure is giving the frontal boundary a slight
nudge further offshore early this morning. This should bring some
drier air and lower rain chances to much of the region through mid
week. Exception would be right along the coast, and more so
offshore, where the frontal zone and persistent coastal
troffiness further south will provide continued chances of showers
and maybe an isolated storm or two.

Heading into midweek, higher pressure will lift further to the
northeast and we`ll see another mid level trof develop across
northern Mexico and West Texas. The frontal zone and coastal trof
offshore will drift back to the north. As this occurs, areas
mainly south of the I-10 corridor and coastal areas will probably
see another uptick in rain chances (and hazardous boating
conditions) during the second half of the week. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

MVFR conditions due to low clouds and reduced visibility from
light rain will continue for terminals from IAH coastward.
Conditions will gradually improve through the day with all
terminals reaching VFR conditions by mid to late afternoon. A few
-RA are possible near terminals, but impacts should be too minimal
 to mention in TAFs. North to northeast winds around 10 to 15
 knots will prevail today with higher gusts possible. Winds will
 gradually become light and variable this evening and overnight.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Cool front will sag further offshore tonight and Monday and bring
stronger northeast winds and higher seas to the waters. Extended
the SCA in the Gulf waters through the remainder of the afternoon
Monday. Periods of rain will continue along the coast and offshore
into Tuesday...more so in the Gulf waters. Winds and seas will
slightly diminish toward midweek, but increase once again during
the second half of the work week as a coastal trough and
unsettled weather across the western Gulf tracks back northward
toward the coast.  47

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop in the vicinity of
the the Bay of Campeche toward midweek. NHC will continue to monitor
this region for possible tropical development. Currently, there is
around 50% chance of development. Wind shear appears like it
could be fairly strong across northwest parts of the Gulf coast
later this week, but let`s keep an eye on things. Climatologically
speaking, the southern, east central, and eastern portions of the
Gulf tend to be more prone to seeing tropical systems in the
month of October. Regardless of any tropical development...winds,
seas and rain chances will increase in the local marine environment
during the second half of the week with a coastal trough in
place. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  84  65  87  65 /   0  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  86  71  88  71 /  20  10  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  86  78  86  78 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330-
     335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ350-355-
     370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion