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FXUS64 KHGX 051712

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1212 PM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022

...New AVIATION...

(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022

"Ouuu Yeahhh" to all these beautiful fall days we`ve had these past
few days as high pressure continues to be the main weather feature
this week. A perfect day for a walk in the park or a leisurely bike
ride around the city is in store today; mostly sunny skies, light
variable winds, high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s, and
afternoon dew points in the 50s inland or the low to mid 60s near
the waters. For tonight, mostly clear skies will continue, giving
you a perfect view of tonight`s Waxing Gibbous moon phase. Though
the lows will be a tad bit warmer overnight, they will still be in
the comfortable range between the upper 50s and mid 60s inland,
slightly higher along the coasts.

For Thursday, a little more low level moisture is expected with PWs
around 1.0-1.1 inches as a surface low moves westward, into the
western Gulf of Mexico. Most of the rain activity associated with
this feature is to stay over the waters, and with subsidence aloft,
rain development for our area will be limited. It will, however,
warm up a little more with highs in the low 90s for most of
Southeast TX, slightly cooler along the coasts. The lows will also
be slightly higher overnight Thursday, ranging between the low to
upper 60s inland and the upper 60s to low 70s near the waters.



(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022

We pick up the long term period on Friday where an upper level
trough will now be located over eastern Canada (Quebec) and the
Northeastern CONUS with its axis extended into the Upper Midwest. As
the trough continues its progression eastward, it will push a weak
cold front through Southeast Texas on late Friday/early Saturday.
This front won`t be anything substantial...but it will take us from
the high temperatures in the low 90s on Friday to high temperatures
in the upper 80s for a portion of early next week so...small
victories? With low temperatures returning to the upper 50s/low 60s
for a few nights, I`d call that a victory! However, those upper 50s
will be mostly relegated to areas north of I-10.

A mid level cutoff low sits over the Baja Peninsula over the
weekend and eventually becomes embedded with the mid level flow
again early next week which induces subtle ridging aloft. This
leads to a slight warming trend with more and more high
temperatures reaching the low 90s once again starting on Tuesday.
Additionally, by this point surface high pressure will be off to
our east inducing moisture advection through onshore flow. The
return of moisture eventually leads to what feels like our first
rain chances in weeks on Wednesday.

Long range models are still pointing towards an upper level trough
digging down into the Northwestern CONUS on Tuesday and deepening as
it moves across the Central Plains. There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty on what follows afterwards, but the general consensus
points toward this trough being the source of the next (and
stronger) cold front and also our best chance of rain in quite a
while. It remains to be seen how much moisture pushes in ahead of
the front, especially with some models suggesting an added boost
of tropical moisture. As far as temperatures go, the spread
between both MaxT and MinT in the lower and upper quartiles of the
NBM is 10+ degrees after Wednesday, so...yeah...quite a bit of
uncertainty confirmed.



(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022

Quiet weather prevails over the TAF sites; therefore, VFR
conditions are expected through the period with light
northeasterly winds.



Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Oct 5 2022

Light winds and low seas will prevail going into the weekend until a
cold front pushes offshore on early Saturday. In the wake of the
front, moderate northeasterly to easterly winds will prevail through
Sunday night along with seas building to 3-5 feet. At least caution
flags will be needed over the weekend as a result. Expect winds and
seas to gradually subside early next week.



College Station (CLL)  60  92  63  92 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  63  91  65  91 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  72  86  73  85 /   0   0   0   0





NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion