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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

966
FXUS64 KHGX 020545
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1245 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot weather will continue with peak heat index values reaching 100-
110F (38-43C) through the holiday weekend. Heat safety should
continued to be practiced over the next several days.

- Daily isolated showers look to continue during the morning hours
  with scattered/isolated storms developing in the afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

The larger weather pattern continues to be dominated by the stout
ridge across the eastern U.S. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
were seen yesterday evening across the Western Pineywoods and easter
Southeast Texas regions. Current conditions show decaying outflow
and light showers moving west of the I-45 corridor.

Overall, the forecast continues to remain steady, mainly due to the
strength and position of the mid-level ridge. This afternoon is
expected to be the peak of moisture availability as a weak impulse
moves into the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms look to
develop across the southeastern two-thirds of the forecast area
along the seabreeze boundary. Shower coverage will be closer to
numerous across the northeastern Golden Triangle along our border
with Lake Charles. Low chances for rain return Friday and Saturday,
but scattered showers and storms will be possible Sunday and Monday
afternoons as the mid-level ridge looks to break down over the
eastern U.S.

Heat continues to be the main talking point for the region. Latest
guidance has slightly reduced the coverage of some of the higher
values between 108-110F (42-43C), but isolated locations may still
reach this range Friday and Saturday. With this weekend doubling as
a holiday weekend and a match day, consideration for a Heat Advisory
will need to be maintained. If you plan to spend the day outdoors,
make sure you wear light cloths, apply sunscreen and stay hydrated
by drinking plenty of water. Also take plenty of breaks from the
heat by seeking shade/AC.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 549 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Scattered shower activity between KDWH and KCLL will continue to
move to the northeast. Most of the activity should start
decreasing as we progress into the evening, but may have to amened
to add a TEMPO group for KCLL if these scattered storm activity
continues. Otherwise, a return of MVFR CIGs overnight after 06Z
will carry through the 14Z. Roughly after 08-10Z, streamer showers
could potentially result in reductions in CIG with the strongest
cells, otherwise VFR conditions return to inland terminals through
18Z. For more coastal terminals, scattered thunderstorm activity
increases from 16Z and pushing toward inland terminals. Outflow
collisions would result in new storms after 18Z, with most
shower/storm activity diminishing after 00Z. VFR conditions then
return through the end of the TAF period. With the scattered
nature of the storms and higher confidence in this convective
activity, PROB30 groups were maintained, but expanded to most
terminal sites (though lower confidence exists for KUTS and KCLL).

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Light S/SE winds around 10 knots and calm seas of 1 to 3 feet are
expected throughout the next several days. Light streamer showers
could develop over the Gulf waters each morning. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms could develop along the sea breeze in the
afternoon near the coastline and bays. The best chance for isolated
to scattered thunderstorms will be this afternoon and then Sunday
and Monday afternoon. &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  95  77  96 /  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  77  94  78  95 /  10  20   0  20
Galveston (GLS)  82  89  82  89 /  10  20   0  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...Enriquez
MARINE...Williams

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion