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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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FXUS64 KHGX 311129
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
629 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025

There is still a chance for some isolated showers and possibly
isolated thunderstorms this morning along the coastal locations
and Gulf waters. However, mostly tranquil conditions can be
expected for later today into tonight as surface high pressure
over northern and northeastern TX dominates the local weather
pattern. High temperatures today will be mainly in the upper 80s
and the lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s over the
Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region and the lower 70s for the
rest of the inland portions.

A mid to upper level shortwave and associated cluster of showers
and thunderstorms will make its way southward across eastern OK
Saturday night into Sunday morning and eastern TX during the
afternoon to evening hours. Hi-Res guidance suggest the cluster of
showers and storms arriving the Brazos Valley to Piney Woods
region during the morning hours, but weaken quickly as they
progress southward. Then, guidance show another round of showers
and thunderstorms developing to our north and northwest, which
would move then into Southeast TX later in the afternoon into the
early night hours. There is still some uncertainty as to how
strong these storms will be and how much of Southeast TX will be
affected by them. This second batch of storms does look to be the
stronger one out of the two, given that conditions in the
afternoon to evening may become favorable for strong to severe
storms, capable of producing strong winds and hail. However, as we
have seen it happen in the past few days, we will need to see if
the morning storms take all the "juice" out of the environment
and not allow us to recover as much during the afternoon hours.

At this time, I continued with slight chances for showers and
storms for the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region during the
morning hours and increase PoPs and expand them further south as
the afternoon progresses. I also kept slight chances in the
evening to night hours in case some of these showers take a little
longer to dissipate. That being said, there may be further
changes to this forecast (maybe higher PoPs if needed) as models
come into a better agreement on the strength and coverage of
these storms.

I will note here that SPC has placed a Slight Risk for severe
thunderstorms (level 2 of 5) for areas north of a line extending
from northern Washington County to eastern Trinity County while
the rest of Southeast TX has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) on
Sunday. Main threats are damaging winds and hail, but cannot rule
out a brief/isolated tornado. Although some of these storms may
carry heavy rainfall at times, we are currently not expecting
significant flooding impacts with this activity. However, ponding
of water along roadways and poor drainage areas are possible.

Please continue to monitor the latest forecast updates and
remember to have multiple ways of receiving weather alerts and
warnings.

Cotto (24)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025

There remains not a whole lot to say about the long term at this
time beyond...yup, it`s early summer! A quick summary of the Euro
ensemble`s Extreme Forecast Index reveals a whole lot of white
across Southeast Texas, indicating very little potential for
extreme events through next week. One small bit of 0.5-0.6 values
near the coast emerges later next week, indicating an "extreme"
event is possible is later next week for minimum temperatures.
Basically from Monday night/Tuesday morning onward, I`ve got low
temps at/above 80 degrees beginning to encroach on Galveston and
other communities on the immediate coast (Anahuac, High Island,
Surfside, etc).

These increasing warm nights do not surprise me too overly much.
We`ll have persistent onshore flow through this period, keeping a
strong Gulf connection to keep dewpoints high at night, especially
closer to the coast. High dewpoints will keep the temperature
floor high, and given how compressed our temperature range can get
in the summer, it doesn`t take a huge boost to the temperature
floor to start having to consider the potential for record high
min temps. Patches of 0.5+ EFI aren`t the strongest indicator of
unusually hot nights ahead, but does signal it to be something to
be on the watch for.

One other thing we`ll have to be mindful of? A weak cold front
will be approaching the region mid to late week next week. But
man, this front looks so weak. (This is where you go "How weak is
it?") It looks so weak, I doubt it makes it much past the Red
River, much less anywhere close to Southeast Texas. But...it and
the upper trough supporting it may get near enough to help enhance
our typical diurnal showers and storms some. So I roll with some
modestly higher PoPs (thinking like 30s or so rather than 15ish
percent each day), at least north of the Houston metro for
Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025

UTS currently under LIFR conditions, and a few other sites under
MVFR conditions due to fog and lower cloud decks. Fog is expected
to dissipate quickly shortly after sunrise. VFR conditions
expected for the rest of the day. Winds will be mainly N-NE today
at 4-8 KT and becoming light and VRB late evening into Sun
morning. Some sites could see the return of MVFR conditions during
the overnight period.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025

Light to moderate north to northeast winds are expected in the
front`s wake through this morning and early afternoon. Through the
afternoon, winds will begin to veer, becoming south to southeast
tonight. Onshore winds are expected to increase early next week,
resulting in gradually building swell. As those winds gradually
build, small craft may need to exercise caution on Tuesday and
even a Small Craft Advisory may be needed on the coastal Gulf
waters. Daily potential for isolated to widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms will also exist.

At the shore, persistent onshore winds next week could lead to
strong rip currents along the Gulf facing beaches as well as minor
rises in water levels during the upcoming week. At times of high
tide, guidance suggests continued water levels around 2.5-3.0 feet
above MLLW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  87  69  93  72 /   0   0  20  20
Houston (IAH)  88  72  93  74 /  10  10  20  20
Galveston (GLS)  84  77  88  79 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cotto
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...Luchs

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion