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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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723
FXUS64 KHGX 070526
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1126 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer weather is expected through midweek next week.

- A chance showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday as a weak
  disturbance moves through the region. Will need to monitor for
  the potential for some of these storms to be on the stronger
  side

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1045 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Mostly clear skies and dry weather will prevail through the
weekend as an upper-level ridge remains stationed over the region.
High temperatures will generally be in the upper 70s through
Monday with overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. SSE winds
will begin on Sunday and result in an uptick in moisture to start
off the work week. The increase in moisture combined with light
winds and a stable environment will result in increased potential
for fog during the overnight/early morning periods early next
week.

Also kicking off the work-week will be an upper-level low that
will move into Baja California Sunday night into Monday morning,
and will pass through Texas Monday night into Tuesday. While
shortwave troughs will move through SE TX ahead of the main low
Tuesday morning, the main disturbance will move through Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night. This may yield scattered showers
and thunderstorms through most of Tuesday. There is the potential
for some of these storms to become strong to severe, but
confidence on this is low. A few models have suggested bulk shear
values of around 50 kts (more than suitable for storm
organization) and with a jet streak overhead, storms would have
enhanced lift. The caveat is that CAPE is on the lower end, and
how much moisture would be available for storms to work with. In
any case, something to keep an eye on as we get closer to Tuesday.

Temperatures will come down a bit on Tuesday with the increased
cloud cover and potential for precipitation (though still above
the seasonal normal). High pressure building in from behind
Tuesday`s disturbance will result in warmer temperatures for
Wednesday as highs approach the low 80s for parts of the region.

Bailey


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 522 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

VFR. Light VRB winds tonight through Sat morning. Winds increase
to 5-10 KTS and turn ESE Sat morning, and then turn SE Sat
evening. Some patchy fog is possible over portions of SE TX late
Sat night into early Sun morning.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1045 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Winds will become light tonight, shifting to easterly Saturday
morning following the passage of a weak, dry front. There may be a
brief period during the late morning to early afternoon when
gusts may increase to around 20kt, but otherwise winds will be
10-15kt through the day. Light southeasterly winds are expected
by Saturday night and will continue through midweek next week.
The onshore flow will increase moisture to the region, so
monitoring the potential of patchy fog in the northern parts of
the Bays where inland fog may spill over into the bays. `
Abnormally low waters levels are still expected in the northern
parts of Galveston Bay through the weekend, with low tides around
0.5 to 0.75ft below MLLW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  48  78  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  50  75  51  76 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  53  62  55  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...Bailey

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion