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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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003
FXUS64 KHGX 171910
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
210 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Tropical Storm Warning is currently in effect for portions of
  the immediate coast, with winds gusting as high as 50 mph
  through the early evening.

- Coastal flooding remains possible through this evening, with
  surges up to 3 feet.

- Dangerous heat will build across southeast Texas late this week
  into early next week. Those planning outdoor activities should
  prepare for dangerous heat indices.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Tropical Storm Arthur continues to move to the northeast along
the southeast Texas coast. Rain has really diminished over the
last couple of hours, as drier air filters in along the northern
periphery of TS Arthur. Meanwhile, strong southwesterly winds
persist at the surface, with sustained winds as high as 40 mph
along the immediate coast and barrier islands. Given these
observations and trends suggesting these winds persisting into the
afternoon, a Tropical Storm Warning was issued for Brazoria,
Galveston, and Chambers counties through tomorrow morning. As TS
Arthur moves ashore later this evening, winds should begin to
subside and refinements to watch/warning products may become
necessary. Other than gusty winds, minor coastal flooding remains
a potential through the evening, with the threat subsiding late
tonight.

TS Arthur will move well inland and to the east on Thursday, as a
broad ridge builds eastward across the Southern Plains. Plentiful
moisture will remain in place, and aided by the saturated soils,
dewpoints are expected to climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s as
we head into the weekend. Meanwhile, plentiful sunshine will send
highs into the lower 90s each day from Thursday through the
weekend. The building heat will quickly become a concern on
Thursday, and especially Friday and Saturday, as heat indices soar
into the 110 to 115 degree range. Unfortunately, the dewpoints
will persist over the coming days, keeping lows in the upper 70s
to lower 80s. The persistent heat, and little in the way of
overnight relief, will likely begin to create issues around the
area. At this point, we will cover these concerns with a Heat
Advisory. We`ll see a little relief in the heat on Sunday, as
dewpoints decrease slightly. However, we`re still expecting triple
digit heat indicies persisting into early next week.

&&

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Gusty southeasterly winds around Tropical Storm Arthur continue
through the afternoon before Arthur pulls away, allowing winds to
diminish late this afternoon. The best chance for a passing shower
will remain along the coast. Ceilings will generally remain higher
end MVFR to VFR this afternoon before becoming more VFR late this
afternoon into the early evening. MVFR ceilings are forecast to
return tonight with a low chance of some IFR ceilings away from the
immediate coast. Ceilings gradually improve Thursday morning with
winds out of the south.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 124 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Tropical Storm Arthur will move through the marine zones over the
next several hours, bringing winds between 35 and 40kts, with
gusts as high as 50 kts. Seas 6 to 9 feet will persist until this
evening, with winds and waves subsiding as TS Arther moves inland
into SW LA this evening. Onshore flow will become light to
moderate by Thursday and persist into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  95  80  93 /   0   0  10  20
Houston (IAH)  79  94  81  93 /  10   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  84  90  84  90 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ214-337-338-437>439.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 10 PM CDT Friday for TXZ163-
     164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
     436>439.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ436>438.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ330-350.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ335-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...WFO
MARINE...JTC

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion