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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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114
FXUS64 KHGX 180523
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1223 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure remains in control through the week, resulting in
  dry and warmer conditions with light southerly winds.

- A significant warming trend Friday into the weekend. Some
  locations may see the first 90-degree days of the year.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Quiet weather is expected throughout the next several days as
surface high pressure remains in the vicinity with ridging aloft.
Currently the upper level ridge is over the West Coast centered over
SoCal/Baja California with the midlevel ridge`s heights over 590
dam. These 500mb heights are well above the 99th percentile in both
the GEFS M-Climate and NAEFS Climate percentiles for this time of
the year. Midlevel heights over SE Texas should climb above the 90th
climatological percentile on Thursday, and stay there for the
remainder of the forecast period. By Friday, 850mb temperatures
reach 14-17C, in 90th to 97.5th percentile compared to NAEFS climate
and are expected to remain there through the weekend. In addition,
the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) shows values of 0.70-0.95 for
max temperature, with shift of tales values approaching 1-2 over
portions of eastern Texas during this period. This comes paired with
solid west-southeasterly flow in the lower levels of the atmosphere
with low PWs generally below 0.75 inches. Very much a potent signal
rather high afternoon temperatures for this spring, around 5 to 17
degrees above normal. An approaching shortwave further upstream
should fatten out the ridge late in the weekend, easing down on max
temps, but still keeping quiet weather in place.

Overall warm conditions and slim rain chances are expected through
the forecast period. We`ll see some cool lows early this morning,
generally in the 40s inland and 50s near the coast. During the
afternoon, highs should reach the upper 60s/70s. Friday through
Sunday will be the hottest period in the forecast with highs
reaching the upper 70s/lower 90s and morning lows in the upper
50s/60s. High temperatures ease off slightly next week, but remain
in the 70s/80s during the afternoon hours.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

VFR for the next 30+ hours with just some passing few-sct high
clouds at times. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Light to moderate south-southwest winds and low seas are expected
over the next several days. Rain chances remain slim throughout this
period as high pressure looms in the vicinity.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  50  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  76  53  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  69  62  73  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...47
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion