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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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619
FXUS64 KHGX 040535
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1235 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible  on
a daily basis into next week.

-Heat and humidity continue with heat indicies in the triple
 digits each day


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Upper level ridging will expand across the Southern Plains with a
mid-level circulation meandering SW through the day Friday. PWAT
values remain elevated, and as daytime heating kicks in with the
approach of the sea breeze, expect to see more showers and
thunderstorms developing over the course of the day. Nearby mid-
level vorticity maximum, along with moderate instability and weak
winds, will promote slow moving storms capable of producing heavy
downpours and isolated gusty winds through the afternoon hours.


Expect this pattern of daily showers and storms to continue through
the long-term period as a broad area of low pressure remains nearby
and the ridge just to our north. This area of low pressure coupled
with daytime heating and the afternoon sea breeze will promote
afternoon showers and storms.

Look for highs to be in the low to mid 90s for inland areas and in
the 80s along the coast. Daytime heat indices will reach into the
triple digits.

Bailey

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Fairly tranquil night on tap with light winds and bkn-ovc mid/upper
cloud cover. May see some intermittent spotty showers overnight, but
only terminal probably worth mentioning would be CLL at this point.

Otherwise, continued VFR with light winds during the day. Am
anticipating fairly active seabreeze/baybreeze shra & tstm
development after about 16z. Kind of a mixed model bag in terms of
how far north precipitation spreads inland. Have some PROB30s up to
about UTS for now until we see how trends evolve. Suspect they might
need to be increased up into the metro area and possibly removed at
some locations further north. With the light flow, I`d anticipate
some boundary interactions/collisions that may briefly enhance storm
strength at times, but that`s too small of a scale for TAFs at this
point. Precip should taper off late in the day/evening with the loss
of heating. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Light to moderate onshore winds and 2-3 ft seas will prevail through
the end of the week and into the weekend. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. Locally higher
winds and seas will be possible near any strong storms.

JM/Bailey

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  94  74  95 /  10  20  10  20
Houston (IAH)  77  93  77  94 /  10  50  10  50
Galveston (GLS)  82  90  82  90 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Bailey

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion