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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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501
FXUS64 KHGX 211132
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
532 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense sea fog through this morning.

- Stalled boundary is reinforced and push off the coast as a cold
  front this afternoon/evening.

- Strong winds follow in the wake of the front through Sunday with
  elevated to near critical fire weather conditions through
  Monday.

- Onshore flow returns on Tuesday, warming conditions through
  Thursday ahead of another cold front around early Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1219 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

A stalled frontal boundary is currently positioned along a rough
line from Edna to Livingston early today. The slew of short-range
models are slow with it`s frontal progression, and even the faster
outcomes like the ARW don`t show it pushing off the coast till this
afternoon at the earliest. This means we`ll have one more foggy
morning across the coast, as the pockets of dense fog over the
nearshore coastal waters fill into the bays and surrounding coast
zones. Inland and marine Dense Fog Advisories remain in effect until
9 AM today. Fog should begin to thin and burn off with daytime
heating.

The front is anticipated to push off the coast some time in the
afternoon, though the bulk of the cooler/drier air should lag behind
it. While the FROPA timing introduces some uncertainty with respect
to temperatures, on the whole daytime conditions should be fairly
warm, generally in the 70s to lower 80s across the area. A few
showers and the stray storm or two cannot be completely ruled out
along the front itself, but otherwise most of SE Texas should stay
dry. Cooler, drier and breezy conditions should settle in tonight
with early morning lows for Sunday ranging from the upper 30s inland
to lower 50s along the coast.

Sunday will start off breezy, but winds should start to ease down
throughout the day as surface high pressure fills in over the state.
Highs are currently anticipated to top out in the 60s during the
daytime, dropping overnight to the 30s/upper 40s early Monday
morning. Afternoon RH should drop to around 20-30% across most of
the area during the afternoon on Sunday with surface winds around 10-
15 mph with higher gusts. As a result, some areas may experience
elevated to near critical fire weather conditions on Sunday and
Monday as well. Winds should generally be lighter on Monday, under
10 mph, though RH values are anticipated to fall to 15-20% inland
during the afternoon.

High pressure should move off to the SE CONUS on Tuesday, allowing
onshore flow to return. This will usher in a gradual warming period
through mid week as highs climb to the 70s/80s with morning lows in
the 50s/60s. Long range guidance suggest that another cold front
will push through the area late in the week, around Thursday
night/Friday, bringing another cool down into the next weekend.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 532 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Front has made it through CLL, and making its way through UTS as
winds there are shifting and VSBY beginning to improve. First
several hours handle the front pushing its way through the
remaining terminals, with onshore winds and fog ahead of it. Once
front is through, improvement begins first gradually, then rapidly
goes to high VFR mid-day/early afternoon across the area.

Back half of the TAF handles increasing north winds, with
sustained 10-15 kts and gusts into the middle 20s for most
terminals. GLS is a noted example as fetch off Galveston Bay will
allow for winds to exceed 20 kts with gusts above 30 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1219 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Areas of sea fog are expected this morning, but should begin to
clear out after sunrise. May see some pockets of dense sea fog
linger a tad longer over the nearshore waters, especially near
Galveston, but again this should ease up heading into the afternoon
as a cold front pushes off the coast. Stronger northerly winds
should develop behind the front tonight, reaching 25-30 knots with
higher gusts near gale offshore. Seas could reach 6-10 feet with
negative tide levels in the bays to as low as -0.5 ft MLLW. Gale
Watches remain in effect this evening through early Sunday. Winds
decrease throughout Sunday into early Monday with onshore flow
resuming on Tuesday.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  40  63  36 /  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  79  47  64  41 /  20   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  74  51  63  48 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ214-
     236>238-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335-
     350-355.

     Gale Watch from this evening through late tonight for GMZ330-335-
     350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion