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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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609
FXUS64 KHGX 121806
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1206 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler, drier weather will prevail for the remainder of the work
  week following Thursday morning`s cold front.

- Rain chances return late this weekend as a couple of upper level
  disturbances push into the region. Locally heavy rainfall
  possible Sunday.

- Another cold front pushes through by Monday morning bringing
  another period of cooler, drier weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1206 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Plentiful sunshine and drier air in place as PW values have fallen
down into the 0.4-0.5" range (10th percentile: ~0.42") following a
cold front that pushed off the coast earlier this morning. High
temperatures will top out mostly in the mid 70s this afternoon with
light northeasterly winds persisting. There are a few gusts near 20-
25 mph mixing to the surface late this morning into the early
afternoon as a decaying LLJ drifts in from the north. Expecting
winds aloft to continue to decrease by the mid to late afternoon
hours. Clear skies and light winds overnight is a great recipe for
max radiational cooling, so expect low temperatures to bottom out
mostly in the mid 40s to low 50s.

High temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees cooler (low to mid
70s) because an 850mb high will slide in from the west, which will
bring ever so slightly cooler temperatures aloft...so no warm air to
mix to the surface. Even drier air filters into our eastern areas
throughout the day on Friday with dew points likely falling into the
30s Friday night. So, it`s not entirely surprising that low
temperatures Friday night will also be a few degrees cooler with
some low 40s possible in portions of the Piney Woods and mid 40s/low
50s elsewhere. There are some synoptic changes to mention though as
we head into Friday. As the upper level trough axis (and embedded
upper low) that brought today`s cold front gradually pushes eastward
through the northeastern CONUS, it will begin to drag in a ridge
axis from the west on Friday. For the reasons earlier in the
paragraph, we won`t see a subsequent warming trend...so it`s what`s
behind this ridge that has our attention.

Going into Saturday afternoon, an embedded shortwave trough pushes
in from the west. It`ll be tough for us to go from near the 10th
percentile for moisture availability to a value that would favor
heavy rainfall...not impossible, but difficult. There`s also drier
air in the mid-levels (between 500-800mb) that this increasing
moisture and lift would have to battle as well. So, for those
reasons, we`re only looking at light to maybe moderate rain showers
on Saturday afternoon/evening. The best chances for rain would be
west of I-45 (closer to the Brazos River). The GFS is still holding
onto a Saturday afternoon/evening MCS...and remains the only
deterministic model showing that solution so we`ll continue to treat
it as an outlier.

The next upper level disturbance pushes through the Four Corners
region on Saturday afternoon leading to surface low pressure
development near the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles. This is important to
note because this places us areas west of I-45 in the warm sector as
this low develops further and pushes southeastward. There may be an
axis of instability, but uncertainty still remains on where it sets
up and also on the timing of the associated frontal boundary pushing
through. A morning FROPA would play out differently than an
afternoon FROPA. Either way, showers/storms are expected ahead of
and along the frontal boundary whenever it pushes through. WPC has
outlined all of Southeast Texas in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) of
excessive rainfall on Sunday.

Deterministically (not sure if that`s a word, but we`ll make it one
for now), our forecast calls for 1-2" of rainfall between late
Saturday-Monday. I did take a look at some of the latest guidance
for rainfall total probabilities though. In yesterday`s discussion,
I mentioned that there was a 20-30% probability of rainfall amounts
greater than 2". The latest guidance has increased this probability
to 30-40% areawide...that`s a notable jump! For 3+" totals, the
probabilities increased from ~10% to 15-20% near and south of I-10.
In case you were curious, the probabilities for 4+" are now around
10% right along the coast. I`ll reiterate again that even though
these probabilities are low...they are still statistically notable,
especially since there`s an upward trend from yesterday. The cold
front pushes offshore by Monday morning, but lingering moisture and
lift leads to a potential interesting scenario for Monday.

I just realized that the previous sentence may have made a few of
you think "is he talking about snow?!" sadly no...nothing frozen
(let it go). We`re talking about daytime temperatures on Monday that
could be the coolest we`ve seen since mid March! Part of that
equation will be gusty northeasterly winds that prevail in the wake
of the front throughout the day on Monday. We could see sustained
winds flirt with the Wind Advisory threshold along the immediate
coast as well. Low-level moisture is also expected to linger
throughout the day leaving a blanket of cloud cover throughout the
day. Those two factors are hindrances to heating.

As a result, high temperatures on Monday are "currently" reflected
to range from the upper 50s to low 60s. I say "currently" because
these may trend down over the coming days given model trends. There
is decent potential that quite a few of us remain below 60 degrees
on Monday! Yep we`re looking at probabilities again. The probability
for high temperatures below 60 degrees for Monday ranges from 70-90%
for the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods to 40-50% around the Houston metro
area to 15-30% along the coast. The last time that we`ve recorded a
full day below 60 degrees in the city of Houston was on March
16th...how`s that for your bonus weather nugget of the day! Cooler
and drier weather persists at least into the middle of next week
with high temperatures gradually climbing through the 60s and 70s
and low temperatures in the 40s/50s.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1206 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

VFR conditions will persist through this TAF cycle. Current N winds
of 8-12 kts, with gusts of 15-20 kts for KIAH and sites south of it,
will decrease by the evening, becoming calm and VRB. Patchy fog may
bring MVFR vis to KSGR during the early morning hours, but current
model confidence is too low to include them in this TAF package.
Winds expected to remain calm and VRB throughout tomorrow morning.

JMG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1206 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Caution flags remain in effect for Galveston Bay and the Gulf waters
through this afternoon as moderate northeasterly winds prevail in
the wake of this morning`s cold front. Seas in the offshore Gulf
waters are likely peaking around 4 ft, but will subside back into
the 2-3 ft range as winds relax overnight. Benign marine conditions
will follow through Friday night as winds transition to easterly
Friday night.

A tightening pressure gradient will lead to strengthening easterly
winds which will likely necessitate a period of Small Craft
Advisories. These moderate to strong winds will transition to
southeasterly Saturday night with seas building into the 7-10 ft
range Saturday night. Increased winds and seas persist into early
next week as a cold front pushes offshore Sunday night/Monday
morning. Gusts may exceed 30 kt at times, especially late Sunday
through Monday behind the cold front.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are also expected
Saturday evening through Monday. We`ll also need to monitor water
levels during times of high tide over the weekend as model guidance
continues to hint at peaks above 3.0 ft MLLW.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  49  75  49  68 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  53  74  51  66 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  61  71  62  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 3 PM CST this
     afternoon for GMZ335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion