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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

080
FXUS64 KHGX 161045
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
545 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Uneventful, muggy conditions will continue through the weekend
  with a low chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms.

- Confidence continues to increase on wetter, more impactful
  weather across southeast Texas with 2 to 4 inches of rainfall
  more likely in the next 7 days.

- Continued intensity of onshore winds will deliver impacts to all
  Gulf-facing beachfronts through the weekend, including
  increasing threats for coastal flooding and rip currents.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Southerly winds have started to return in earnest across
southeast Texas as ridging builds to our east at the surface and
aloft. Subsequent warm air advection continues near the surface
with the 70-degree isodrosotherm gradually creeping with muggy air
north of I-10 through the rest of the day. Across the
Intermountain West, troughing will continue establishing itself
(base of the trough axis near the Four Corners region) through the
weekend with multiple rounds of ejections across the Great Plains
as the next workweek begins. With this synoptic setup, the
attendant frontal boundary (that is expected to only approach and
not pass through the area) will serve as the focusing/lifting
mechanism by next Tuesday as southwesterly flow aloft remains in
place until then and advects embedded vorticity maxima (and
scattered rain chances) across the area starting as early as
tomorrow night. A diurnally-driven convective pattern will begin
in earnest by Monday through Tuesday, producing some wetting
rains, however, meager atmospheric ingredients will inhibit most
storm intensities to sub-severe levels through this week.

By Wednesday, long-range guidance suggests convection that becomes
more spatiotemporally widespread in distribution as the frontal
boundary is expected to make its closest approach. Within current
Days 1-7 QPF totals of 2-4+ inches, the bulk of precipitation
distribution appears to fall towards the middle of the week as a
result. Temperatures will also respond in kind with maximums and
minimums moderated near to below normal later next week
(mid-80s/low-to-mid 70s, respectively). Rainy conditions are
expected to continue through the end of the next workweek into
next weekend as the frontal boundary stays nearby.

Cassel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 543 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Primary concern today will be gusty southeast winds. By late
morning and afternoon, winds could gust up to around 25 knots.
Winds are expected to decrease this evening. However, there will
also be an increasing risk of MVFR cigs as we head into the
evening and overnight hours. At the coast, winds are expected to
remain elevated into the overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

An extended period of onshore fetch is underway across the Gulf
due to building high pressure to our east placing and elongating
southeasterly winds in a more perpendicular orientation to the
Upper Texas shoreline. Confirmed by P-ETSS guidance, this will
induce and maintain moderate seas up to 5 ft. through the weekend
with Small Craft Advisories becoming more likely for mariners in
addition to the Beach Hazards Statement (in effect through Monday
morning), where subsequently strong rip currents are a primary
concern for all beachgoers to be aware of.

Cassel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  88  75  90  78 /   0  10  20  20
Houston (IAH)  88  77  89  79 /   0  20  20  10
Galveston (GLS)  84  79  85  80 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cassel
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Cassel

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion