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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

128
FXUS64 KHGX 131102
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
602 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated shower/thunderstorm or two remains a small
  possibility today, but the vast majority of the area will
  remain dry.

- Slightly higher chances of rain on Friday as a brief surge of
  deeper Gulf moisture moves into the area.

- August heat will continue. Heat index values may flirt around
  Heat Advisory criteria at times for some locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Clear skies becoming partly cloudy overnight for areas along and
north of I-10, along with patchy fog developing in isolated spots.
Warm nighttime temperatures will persist across Southeast TX with
lows generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Slightly drier
conditions expected today as PWs decrease, and with the mid-upper
level ridge to our east, chance for rain will be limited. We
might see an shower or two pop up, but most of the area is
expected to remain fairly dry and hot. Speaking of hot, the high
temperatures will once again peak in the mid to upper 90s inland
and the lower to mid 90s over the coastal locations. Heat indices
will range between 103-107 for much of Southeast TX, with a few
isolated spots possibly seeing indices as high as 110 degrees. The
local pressure gradient will tighten this afternoon, resulting in
south winds at 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph. Although the
winds will help with the "feel" of the heat, do not underestimate
the effects of heat stress when working or spending time outdoors
for extended periods.

Rain chances could increase Friday as a surge of moisture and a
few vort maxes move in from the western Gulf waters. Although a
mid-upper level low is expected to move across northwestern
Mexico during the day, the western edge of the mid-upper level
ridge to our east may be of higher influence and limit some of
the rain development over our CWA. For now, I have kept 15-25%
PoPs for the morning hours and 20-30% PoPs in the afternoon as
diurnal heating peaks and instability increases. We might see the
stronger activity flare up near and along the seabreeze. Based on
the expected PWs (1.8-2.1 inches), strong storms could produce
brief periods of heavy rainfall at times. Due to a slight increase
in cloud coverage and the potential for rain, the highs may lower
one or two degrees. I know, not much right? But...hopefully we
get another breezy afternoon to help with this blazing Houston
heat.

Warm and mostly dry conditions are expected this upcoming weekend
into early next week as PWs lower again and heat indices remain
between 104-108 degrees. Make sure to keep protecting yourself,
your loved ones, and your pets safe from the heat :).

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 523 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Cloud decks have settled around 1500-2500 ft this morning with
only a few isolated MVFR CIGs over portions of the Brazos Valley.
CIGs and any isolated pockets of morning fog should clear out
after sunrise. VFR conditions prevail throughout the daytime with
breezy south-southwest winds gusting to around 18-24 knots. Rain
chances are low, though a sparse shower or two isn`t impossible.
Wind and gusts diminish this evening. Cloud decks develop around
1500-2500 again overnight into Friday morning with pockets of
MVFR FLs, mainly around the Brazos Valley.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Caution flags are in effect for the bays and Gulf waters through
late Thursday night for light to moderate onshore winds and seas
of 3-5 feet. Winds are expected to be mostly light with seas of
2-3 feet for the upcoming weekend through early next week. Chance
for showers and storms can be expected Friday as a surge of
moisture moves in from the western Gulf waters. The rest of the
forecast period should remain fairly dry.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  99  76  98  77 /   0   0  20   0
Houston (IAH)  97  79  96  79 /  20   0  30   0
Galveston (GLS)  92  84  91  84 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cotto
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion