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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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426
FXUS64 KHGX 011725
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1225 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tropical Storm Edouard is just offshore nearing the TX/LA border
  at this time. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for
  Chambers County, the Bolivar Peninsula, and the adjacent Gulf
  waters.

- The primary threat through Wednesday is heavy rainfall. A Flood
  Watch is in effect thru 7PM Wednesday. Highest risk of heavy
  rain is along and east of I-45, but could fluctuate depending on
  the eventual track of the low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Latest satellite and radar imagery shows the center of Tropical
Storm Edouard just offshore southeast of Sabine Pass at this time.
Tropical rain bands are spreading into much of southeast TX with
widespread moderate to heavy rainfall expected to move into the
general vicinity of the I-45 corridor through the afternoon and
evening. While winds will increase on the western side of the
circulation, we expect heavy rainfall to be the main threat from
this tropical system as the remnant low slowly spreads northward
through Wednesday. Peak wind gusts still look like they will top
out in the 25 to 40 mph across the area while rainfall amounts of
3-6 inches are expected along and east of the I-45 corridor
through Wednesday. As the remnant low slowly spreads northward
during the day Wednesday, additional convective bands are expected
to expand in coverage during peak heating. Latest short term
guidance does suggest potential for some training rain bands
through the period which could result in some isolated heavier
rainfall amounts in excess of 10 inches. This is most likely to
occur within a narrow band from Liberty northward toward
Huntsville through late Wednesday. Rain chances will be highest
this afternoon and tonight in a narrow axis near the center of the
circulation with a tight gradient in rainfall amounts farther to
the west of the center. By late tonight into Wednesday, convection
may develop well removed from the center within a broad area of
low level convergence around the overall circulation. PoPs will
expand outward from the center through peak heating on Wednesday
with continued potential for heavy rainfall. Additional
instability and ample shear associated with the remnant
circulation would support a few strong storms through the
afternoon and evening. Rain chances will steadily lower from south
to north into late Wednesday evening and night as the system
continues a slow northward track.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Scattered afternoon convection will continue on Thursday as the
remnant low continues to slowly spread north into North Texas
prior to being influenced by an expanding ridge aloft. As we get
into Friday and the upcoming weekend, the upper ridge will expand
across the Southern Plains and will be accompanied by a drop in
total precipitable water along with increasing subsidence. This
should largely reduce the footprint of afternoon convection into
the weekend, although strong heating and an active sea breeze will
keep rain chances primarily confined to coastal areas each
day. Temperatures will slowly creep upward through the weekend
with highs in the mid/upper 90s and heat indices near 105 degrees.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Satellite and radar imagery show the outer rainbands of Tropical
Storm Edouard beginning to encroach upon the SE portion of our area.
Therefore, -SHRA and VCTS are included at several sites to start
this TAF period, with MVFR CIGs associated with Edouard. Early this
afternoon, the rainbands are expected to fill in and produce heavier
rainfall until this evening. Winds are expected to pick up as well,
around 10-15 KTS out of the N at most sites, with higher gusts
possible as Edouard continues to move NW. Expect reduced visibility
and slick runways within these heavier rainbands. Once Edouard makes
landfall, winds should decrease and rain begins to dissipate into
the overnight hours. In general, winds turn southerly and decrease
around 2Z, though sites closer to the center of Edouard may continue
to experience elevated VRB winds. Early tomorrow morning, MVFR level
CIGs are possible in the wake of Edouard, especially at sites along
and north of I-10. These CIGs look to stick around until about 15Z,
then lift back to VFR. Something to watch out for will be the
chances for precipitation tomorrow. Lingering moisture from Edouard
will be present, and some SH/TS are expected to initialize as the low
meanders to the north. Timing of this additional SH/TS activity is
uncertain. Most guidance leans toward the early afternoon hours,
though some models suggest an earlier start, closer to mid-morning.

MLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

...A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the coastal waters
from High Island to Freeport from 0 to 60 NM through Wednesday
morning...

Rainbands from Tropical Storm Edouard will continue to move across
our eastern waters this afternoon, becoming more widespread through
late this evening. The center of Edouard is expected to track just
east of our waters, with a landfall near the TX/LA border late this
afternoon and evening. Winds are expected to back to a more
northerly direction as the system approaches, with winds outside of
rainbands expected to average 15 to 25 knots. Within rainbands,
winds could easily gust to 30-45 knots. Seas are expected to become
choppier in our eastern waters, with some potential for seas up to 5
feet offshore of High Island and Bolivar. We cannot rule out an
outer rainband as far west as Matagorda. But the primary marine
concerns will be in our eastern waters.

Beach conditions are expected to deteriorate today, particularly for
Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula with strong rip currents.
While significant coastal flooding is not anticipated, minor coastal
flooding and wave run-up at the beach are possible, especially
during times of high tide. The highest probabilities of these
conditions are expected to be north of Port Bolivar.

Conditions are expected to improve once the system makes landfall
this evening. However, scattered thunderstorms are possible
throughout the week with light to moderate onshore winds.

JM/47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  75  94  76  94 /  50  60  70  40
Houston (IAH)  77  92  79  93 /  70  50  30  30
Galveston (GLS)  83  91  84  91 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ214-300-439.

     Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-196-
     198>200-212>214-227-237-238-300-313-337-338-437>439.

     Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday morning for TXZ438-439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ335.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ355-375.

&&

$$

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion