Skip to main content.

National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

Related quick links> 5 Day Forecast, Local Advisories, Drought Monitor, UV Forecast, Air Quality Forecast 
314
FXUS64 KHGX 102349
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
549 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and humid weather is expected throughout the week.

- Isolated to scattered showers this evening into Wednesday
  afternoon as an upper level disturbance moves through.

- Potential for some fog/sea fog during the nighttime and morning
  hours through much of the week. However, higher than normal
  uncertainty in the fog forecast.

- Rain chances increasing again Friday night into Saturday night
  as another disturbance moves through the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1045 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

The mid to upper level disturbance that moved across the
northwestern portions of Mexico this morning will continue to
progress east to northeast and into western Texas this afternoon
and weaken as it moves across Northern/Central Texas in the
evening. Along the surface, a weak cold front will push into
Central Texas early tonight and is expected to make it into the
Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region during the overnight hours,
passing through Houston Metro area near or just after sunrise, and
possibly stall along the coastal locations for the rest of the
day. We can expect some showers to develop ahead of the front
later this afternoon to evening over the Brazos Valley and Piney
Woods region, then developing/moving southward overnight as the
front pushes through. Showers will be mostly focused over areas
near and south of I-10 on Wednesday, as the front stalls near the
coast. One thing to note is that mid to upper level ridging is
expected to build over Texas on Wednesday and mid levels would
also be very dry and could limit some of the shower activity. This
front is also not really going to bring us cooler temperatures,
with highs peaking in the mid to upper 70s inland (similar to
today`s highs). Sadness.

Tranquil, but warm and humid conditions expected Thursday into
Friday morning as the mid to upper level ridge dominates the local
weather pattern. Temperatures will continue to rise as southeast
to south wind flow returns and continues to transport warm moist
air from the Gulf. Our highs will be in the upper 70s to lower
80s inland on Friday...which is about 12-18 deg F above normal for
this time of the year over much Southeast Texas.

The opportunity for periods of showers and thunderstorms looks to
increase this weekend as a mid to upper level trough moves from
the Rockies and into the Southern Plains sometime late Friday into
Saturday and a surface low and associated cold front makes its
way through Texas during the day Saturday. This could mean bad
news for those who have outdoor plans/surprises on Valentines
Day. Please continue to monitor the conditions for the weekend.
The good news is that slightly cooler and drier air is expected in
the wake of the front. This will help bring down our overall
temperatures, although likely to remain in the 70s for much of
Southeast Texas.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 538 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Light showers are expected across the region overnight into early
Wednesday as an upper level disturbance & weak frontal boundary
move through SE Texas. May see some fog develop ahead of the cold
front, especially near KGLS as sea fog could fill in over the
island, resulting in LIFR FLs. Other areas will likely see a
combination of MVFR to IFR FLs with VIS being of greater concern
around and south of the houston metro area. To the north, CIGs
will be the prominent driver of FLs. Conditions should begin to
improve Wednesday morning after sunrise.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1045 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Generally light onshore flow and 2-4 foot seas are expected over
the next few days. A frontal boundary is expected to bring a
chance of showers late tonight into Wednesday morning. The front
could make the winds lighter and more variable. The fog forecast
remains tricky. Recent elevated winds just above the surface have
created an unfavorable environment for sea fog. However, these
winds are expected to weaken later tonight, possibly enough to
result in some fog by Wednesday morning. The fog risk appears
higher as we head into Wednesday night and Thursday morning due to
light winds aloft and at the surface.

A more robust storm system may impact the region by the weekend.
Onshore winds and swell are expected to start increasing on
Friday. The system could bring Small Craft Advisory level
conditions over the weekend, along with bringing a decent chance
of showers and thunderstorms. An associated cold front may shift
winds to a northwest direction by Sunday.

Self

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  59  76  55  79 /  30  20   0   0
Houston (IAH)  62  78  60  79 /  30  20   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  59  72  58  71 /  20  20   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cotto
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion