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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

267
FXUS64 KHGX 241916
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
216 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch has been cancelled.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are still
  possible the next few days, but risk of widespread, significant
  impacts is lowering.

- Mariners should remain weather aware this holiday weekend.
  Better storm chances should be transitioning into the Gulf, but
  still close enough to the coast to keep abreast of the weather
  before venturing out on the water.

- Next storm system moves into the area Tuesday night or
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

A subtle mid-lvl ridge is currently sitting over the region, leading
to less convective activity today. PWAT values have decreased,
particularly for areas north of I-10. Consequently, any showers or
storms that manage to develop this afternoon should remain isolated to
scattered, mostly confined along the coastal counties.

Memorial Day has trended less active. While not everyone will see
rain, we cannot completely rule out some afternoon isolated to
scattered showers/storms. This activity will be mostly diurnally-
driven and paired with a weak impulse of energy aloft, mainly
concentrated east of the I-45 corridor. Additional rainfall totals
up to an inch will be possible. While the threat of isolated
localized flooding remains possible under any strong updraft, a
widespread flood threat is no expected. Therefore, the Flood Watch
has been cancelled.

More widespread activity arrives late Tuesday into Thursday. An
upper lvl trough will deepen over the Pacific Northwest and into
the Rockies early this week, ejecting a series of shortwaves
embedded in the flow aloft across the Plains. PWATs are forecast to
increase once again, climbing back toward the 90th percentile of
climatology. Compared to previous days, model guidance and most
ensemble means are in good agreement on bringing this series of
disturbances  into the region by midweek, with only minor
discrepancies remaining regarding timing and rainfall totals.
Therefore, widespread showers (some locally heavy) and
thunderstorms can be expected. The risk of excessive rainfall is
already highlighted by the WPC in their Day 4 Outlook, which places
all of Southeast Texas under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4).

A weak mid-level ridge will build back over the region toward the
end of the week. This ridge could potentially limit any rain/storms
to only isolated or scattered, and mostly diurnally-driven into the
weekend.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

KCXO experiencing MVFR VSBYs. All other sites at VFR.
Precipitation coverage not expected to be as widespread today.
A few showers have developed southwest of the LBX terminal, with a
gradual NE motion. Coverage may increase this afternoon as daytime
heating kicks in, particularly along and south of I-10. Maintained
PROB30 SHRA for IAH and PROB30 TSRA for HOU. Winds will be light
out of the ENE through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop over
the Gulf waters, particularly well offshore through early this
evening. Another chance for showers and storms is expected on
Monday, but the best chances arrive by midweek as another strong
disturbance moves through. Erratic gusty winds and elevated seas
up to 6 ft can be expected near any storms. Otherwise, light
easterly winds and seas up to 4 ft can be expected this afternoon,
persisting through at least Monday morning. Outside of any
storms, light to occasionally moderate southeast to south winds
and low seas can be expected.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  69  88  69  87 /   0  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)  71  89  72  87 /  10  20  10  20
Galveston (GLS)  76  84  77  85 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion