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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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138
FXUS64 KHGX 020432
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1132 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Monitoring for shower/storm potential moving in from the
  northeast overnight and Tuesday afternoon/evening.

- Patchy fog possible during the overnight to early morning hours
  for the next couple of nights.

- Hot and humid conditions expected through mid-week. Make sure to
  be prepared for the heat if you plan to work or spend time
  outdoors.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this
  afternoon/evening. Shower/storm chances increase going into the
  end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

What better way to start off meteorological summer than a typical
summertime weather pattern with high temperatures in the 90s and
sporadic showers/storms along the sea breeze...and the resultant
outflow boundaries. Speaking of boundaries, a weak frontal boundary
looks to approach and push through parts of Southeast Texas going
into Tuesday. However, some of the latest CAM guidance reflects some
convection developing along this frontal boundary and pushing in
from the northwest early Tuesday morning...most of the 00Z suite has
backed off of this though. If this were to occur though, some
embedded stronger storms with gusty winds can`t be entirely ruled
out. The majority of model guidance shows this convection gradually
falling apart is it moves in overnight, but we`ve seen in the past
couple of weeks that convection can tend to hold together longer
than guidance suggests. This is also a good time to mention that
there is potential for patchy fog to develop again overnight into
Tuesday morning.

Back to the temperatures briefly...upper level ridging will remain
in place and pairing with gradually increasing low level moisture.
While temperatures will be a degree or so "cooler" than Monday,
they`ll still be mainly in the low 90s. When you factor in the
elevated humidity, heat index values will peak in the 98-104*F
range. With that in mind, if you have plans to be outdoors during
the afternoon hours early this week, be sure to take the proper
precautions to keep yourself safe from the heat. Take breaks, stay
hydrated, wear light-colored/loose clothing, and ALWAYS ALWAYS
ALWAYS look before you lock your vehicle. Don`t forget about your
pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand,
then it is too hot for their paws.

As we saw on Monday, the sea breeze paired with daytime heating and
some embedded shortwaves underneath the ridge were enough to
generate some isolated to scattered showers/storms in the afternoon.
PW values on Tuesday afternoon will be near or exceeding 2" (90th
percentile: ~1.88"). Pair that with an embedded shortwave trough
sliding in along with a weak frontal boundary in the afternoon and
that equals even more lift and more moisture than Monday. From
there, we can infer that the coverage of convection on Tuesday
afternoon will be a bit more widespread. For all the grade school
students reading this...see we still use the scientific method!
We`ve formulated our hypothesis based on the evidence from what
occurred on Monday and what model guidance is forming a consensus on
(at least in terms of increasing moisture and sources of
lift)...keep an eye on the radar Tuesday afternoon to see if our
theory proves correct! All that being said, we`re still anticipating
the sea breeze to at least be the initial initiation (we`re sticking
with that phrase) point for convection, but there may be some
lingering outflow boundaries as well. Speaking of boundaries (deja
vu from the first paragraph), the latest CAMs are depicting another
round of convection moving in from the northeast Tuesday afternoon
as the weak frontal boundary moves in. Southwestward moving
convection this time of the year can tend to be on the strong side,
so if this verifies don`t be surprised to see some strong wind gusts
within these storms.

It`s also worth noting that with this frontal boundary in place and
paired with the increased moisture, we could see isolated locations
see quick bursts of 1-2+" of rainfall. As a result, portions of the
Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods have been outlined in a marginal
risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall.

The ridge axis begins to slide out to the east on Wednesday as an
upper level low over the Baja Peninsula begins its trek eastward.
This decrease in subsidence paired with placement into southwesterly
flow aloft and PW values remaining elevated means that chances for
showers/storms will continue through the work week. Shower/storm
chances increase further towards the end of the work week and into
the weekend as the upper level low moves in closer. The progression
of the low is a little bit uncertain after it moves into northern
Mexico by Friday. Most guidance takes it northeastward near the
Texas Panhandle, but from there guidance is split on if it lingers
or if it continues northeastward. Either way, southwest flow aloft
and PW values over 2" does equal increased rain chances. The peak of
this moisture looks to occur Friday into Saturday with PW values
potentially nearing 2.2-2.4". This deeper tropical moisture would be
capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, so it`s not a surprise
that most of Southeast Texas is already in a marginal risk (level 1
of 4) of excessive rainfall on Friday...I can imagine parts of the
area will also be outlooked for Saturday as well as we get closer to
the weekend. The good news about the increased rain chances is that
this means we`ll have slightly lower daytime temperatures. We`ll
trade out the early week high temperatures in the low 90s for high
temperatures in the upper 80s by the end of the work week.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 550 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Brief seabreeze showers should taper off this evening with
coverage & intensity remaining too low to warrant including in the
current TAF cycle during this evening. Light variable winds
expected overnight with patchy fogs/MVFR CIGs possible early
Tuesday morning in spots. Isolated IFR conditions possible in some
spots. FLs improve to VFR on Tuesday with showers/storms possible
along the sea breeze Tuesday afternoon. Greater coverage and
confidence in showers & storms compared to today, thus have opted
for PROB 30groups for KIAH and southward from 18-00z. A backdoor
front around the ArkLaTex region is progged to fire off some
additional storms/outflow during the 23-07z time frame. Low
confidence in exact timing but have including an additional prob30
group to cover this secondary band of convection.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Light onshore flow and low seas will prevail through late Tuesday. A
weak frontal boundary approaches the waters late Tuesday night
leading to a transition to easterly winds. Cannot entirely rule a
band of showers/storms in association with this boundary pushing
offshore Tuesday night with potential for gusty winds. Winds
transition back to east-southeasterly to southeasterly by Wednesday
night into Thursday with wind speeds occasionally strengthening near
the caution flag threshold going into the weekend. The occasionally
stronger onshore flow will lead to gradually building seas towards
the end of the work week. Another consequence of the occasionally
stronger onshore flow is an increased risk of rip currents beginning
around midweek. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be
possible daily, but expect these chances to increase towards the end
of the work week.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  75  91  73  88 /  10  30  30  30
Houston (IAH)  76  91  75  89 /   0  30  40  40
Galveston (GLS)  80  88  79  87 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion