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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

019
FXUS64 KHGX 031130
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of Southeast Texas.

- Piney Woods area and the axis from Houston County-Liberty
  County area will be most at risk for significant flooding.

- Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible
  on a daily basis for the next several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Beginning to see nocturnal precip re-consolidation around the TD
Edouard circulation near the Piney Woods. Guidance is in good
agreement that some of our northeast zones up toward the Houston
County region could receive some significant/impactful rains
adding up in the next 12 hours or so...with some guidance pointing
toward some 6"+ in that particular region. Flash Flooding is a
significant concern there. Also fairly concerned about our already
hard hit areas (Liberty-San Jac- Polk- Trinity Co`s) in the 4am-noon
timeframe if we see additional south-north banding set back up over
those same areas as some guidance suggests. The ground is
saturated there, and even some relatively puny cells could cause
runoff and flood issues considering the low flash flood guidance
values (less than 0.5"hr at some locations).

Edouard and its remnants should eventually track to our nnw and
become absorbed into the mean flow. But lingering high PW`s,
daytime heating, and potential seabreeze will allow for scattered
convection across the remainder of the region today. Have extended
the existing Flood Watch (minus Harris & Waller Co) thru 1pm
today so we can monitor trends then re-configure or expire. Even
though some counties have been dropped and/or are not included in
the watch, high rain rates still remain a possibility...albeit the
flash flood threat should be more localized versus widespread.

Though we`ll be losing the Edoaurd`s llvl circulation...a mid
level weakness/low will remain trapped in the vicinity for the
next several days which should allow scattered, diurnally driven
activity across the area through at least the weekend. Overall
coverage will be dependent on fluctuations higher/lower PW
values. Ridging to the north should eventually nudge this weakness
far enough south early-mid next week whereas the coastal
seabreeze might be the only player left.

In terms of temps, looking for readings near-slightly below
seasonable norms to trend back up to normal-slightly above normal
as the days progress. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Broadly speaking, VFR conditions and light winds should prevail
through the majority of the period (with a few exceptions).

Widespread precipitation ongoing across the Piney Woods early this
morning will some scattered banding precip beginning to set up
further south-southwest. The activity over the Piney Woods should
gradually transition westward toward the UTS/CLL terminals during
the day. Suspect mostly light-moderate rain, with maybe some
embedded heavier downpours at times. Further south toward the metro
airports, they`ll probably see better chances of some embedded tstms
as we get some daytime heating and throw boundary interactions into
play. Overall coverage might not be as impressive overall compared
to the activity further north, but that`ll be the place to look for
some isolated strong cells.  Activity should wane areawide with the
loss of heating, but let`s keep an eye on possible sct shra
redevelopment around CLL after 8z and the typical seasonal activity
near the coast Friday morning.

47


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 118 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Onshore winds will prevail along with 2 to 4 foot seas for the
next couple days. Speeds will generally be highest at night
offshore and during the late afternoon and evening in the bays.
Pressure gradient loosens up in a few days which should allow for
a corresponding drop in winds/seas. With abundant moisture levels
in place, look for some scattered showers and thunderstorms on a
daily basis. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  91  75  91  74 /  40  40  40  20
Houston (IAH)  89  77  92  76 /  60  20  40  20
Galveston (GLS)  91  82  90  82 /  40  20  40  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     196-198>200-300.

GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...47
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion