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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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056
FXUS64 KHGX 290617
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1217 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds and much colder temperatures are surging into the
  area in the wake of a strong cold front. Expect temperatures to
  drop in the vicinity of 30 degrees from Sunday afternoon`s highs
  to Monday afternoon. A light freeze can be expected for at least
  a portion of the area Monday and Tuesday nights.

- A Wind Advisory has been issued where there is a high chance (at
  least 75 percent) of sustained winds around 25 mph, and gusts up
  to 45 mph. Outside of the advisory area, the potential for winds
  is only modestly lower - with sustained winds of 15-20 mph
  likely and occasional gusts reaching to 35 mph.

- Marine areas will also be quite windy, with a Gale Warning for
  all coastal waters until mid-day Monday, and persisting on
  coastal Gulf waters until evening. Strong winds, hazardous seas,
  and low bay water levels will make marine travel treacherous.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1217 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

I would not blame you, Dear Reader, if you were getting sick of my
nightly discussions talking about this big, strong cold front that
was going to be coming through while we sweated through an
unseasonably hot stretch with multiple heat records. (You *are*
reading every single one of my discussions, right? Right!) But
finally, at long last, that front is here and making its way
through the Loop as I type. We`ve already seen winds swing around
to northerly and spike into the 20-25 mph range with gusts above
30 mph. We can expect these winds to spread their way coastward
over the next couple of hours, and over the coastal waters through
the night and into Monday.

To go with the winds, we have a bevy of wind-related advisories
and warnings to go with them! A Gale Warning is about to kick in
on all coastal waters as we shall see winds rise to those
conditions shortly after the front passes, complete with hazardous
seas. You can read more about that in the marine section below. On
land, we have a wind advisory covering the large majority of our
area - the coast, as well as the western portion of our area from
the western edge of the Houston metro out to where we hand things
over to our neighboring offices (spoiler alert: our responsibility
ends, but the wind advisories don`t).

Why not all of the area? Well...with binary yes/no things like a
wind advisory, we have to draw the line somewhere, and for this in
particular it is sustained winds (or frequent gusts) of 25 mph. In
the advisory area, these winds are quite likely - NBM
probabilities for a 25 mph sustained wind are 70 percent or
higher. Outside of the area, with the exception of the waters of
Lake Livingston, that probability drops to functionally nil,
except for inland Harris County, which gets up to the 10-15
percent range. Possible, but not likely. But...that doesn`t mean
it won`t be windy in these places! It just means that we`re very
confident that winds look to be just a little bit below the
threshold. So, while we expect winds to get up to around 25 mph
with gusts to 45 mph in the advisory area, outside that
expectation really only slips to around 15 mph with occasional
gusts to around 35 mph! Still breezy for sure...and if we find the
winds outperforming all model expectations, a short-fuse advisory
could be needed.

Those strong winds will be bringing in much chillier
temperatures, as well. I`ve been mentioning for a bit now that
Sunday afternoon to Monday afternoon temperature differences could
be in the 30 degree ballpark, and that`s still the expectation
tonight. This will bring us from record heat to something that is
colder than average for late December, but not unreasonably so.
But the arrival of "somewhat typical winter" will be a big shift
from "second? third? fourth? I`ve lost count summer".

The return of wintry temperatures does also bring up the
discussion of freeze potential. Tonight will not really have that
potential. We`re just starting the cold advection machine, and
only the far north around Houston and Madison counties are really
expected to fall into the middle 30s at most. It`s just the start,
though. I still don`t expect us to rise much above those morning
lows on Monday, only reaching into the upper 40s to around 50
degrees area-wide, setting us up for more chill Monday night into
Tuesday morning. At this point, I have lows in the 30s all the way
to the beaches (congrats, Galveston, you may stay just above 40)
and a light freeze north of the metro. Going back to the NBM
distribution, we`re looking at something up around 90 percent for
sub-32 lows in Crockett and 60 percent in Livingston, but already
down to the 20-25 percent range for places like College Station,
Huntsville, and Conroe. If that feels a little low for College
Station and Huntsville, you`re probably right. a similar HREF
probability is actually more like 50 percent for freezing temps,
but Conroe is still around 20 percent. So, a good reminder that
model probabilities are not true probabilities, but the same
general pattern is holding across systems!

Now, when it comes to the coldest night, I`m still eyeing Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. Tuesday should be a little warmer
than Monday thanks to more sun, and drier air heating more
efficiently, but we`re still close to the winter solstice, so it`s
not going to be *that* much warmer, still in the 50s area-wide.
And what the clear sky and high pressure can`t quite do for
daytime heating, it will more than make up for it with radiational
cooling at night. Our day shift started to get even bolder with
lows Tuesday night, and I am completely inclined to follow them,
with low temps right down to 32 as far south as Angleton! Coastal
areas should stay chilly but above freezing, as well as the bulk
of the Houston metro. But, for areas outside of there, and even on
those northern and western fringes of the metro, a light freeze
appears likely.

If you guessed that means I`m going back the NBM probabilities,
you`d be right! From the Piney Woods down to the Southeast through
Lake Livingston and parts of Liberty County, the sub- freezing
lows probability is functionally 100 percent. It`s gonna happen.
Those probabilities are so high, we`re going to want to slide that
down to the potential for lows below 25 and hard freeze
criteria...and thankfully those numbers are lower, largely less
than 25 percent. Still, isolated spots (mostly in Houston County,
but also Polk, San Jacinto, and Liberty) do see a hard freeze
probability in excess of 30 percent, so it`s not impossible.

Elsewhere in the area, we thankfully don`t have to worry about
hard freeze potential, but a light freeze is very much on the
table. Places where freezing temps are more likely than not? Think
Caldwell, College Station, Huntsville, Conroe, Spring, Katy,
Brenham, places right up to the northern and western fringes of
the Houston metro and north of I-10. South of I-10, we`re not much
behind - so places like Wharton, Bay City, and Angleton, it may
be more of a coin flip per the NBM. I do actually have a little
more confidence, which is why our official forecast low takes
freezing temps into this area southwest of the Houston metro.
Places where the chances are low - 20 percent or less, will be the
urban core of Houston, as well as the immediate coastal areas,
where things should be quite chilly, but also unlikely to reach
freezing.

From Wednesday onward, there still seems to be a general consensus
for fair weather and a warming trend. I largely follow the NBM as
it seems to grasp the trend pretty well, bringing us back to
afternoon temps in the 70s for most all of us by Thursday. One
thing that does stand out to me is the potential passage of a
weak, Pacific "cold" front Friday night. Yeah, complete with the
scare quotes around "cold". I`m actually making the fingers. With
little to no meaningfully colder air behind the front to knock
temps down at all, but with plenty of sun on the backside of the
front, these fronts are actually followed by a warmer day
following their passage - sometimes much warmer! If this were late
spring, I`d be musing about the potential for record highs. While
the deterministic NBM makes things a bit cooler on Saturday, I
instead opted to go with the median of the NBM distribution. You
wouldn`t think that would be much of a change, but this shows much
better a scenario where we actually get warmer after the front
goes through!


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 526 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Strong cold front will cross the terminals this evening. Best
timing around 02Z for KCLL/KUTS, 04-05Z for the Houston terminals,
and 06Z for KLBX/KGLS. Strong north winds will be the main
concern, with gusts of 25-35 knots likely along/following FROPA,
with the strong winds continuing into Monday. A thin band of
showers is expected to develop along the front, with scattered
light showers outside of this band. Any restrictions in visibility
due to rain should be very brief and mainly with the thin band.
There is a low risk of thunder but not high enough to warrant
mention in the TAFs. Expect 2-4 hours of MVFR ceilings following
FROPA then a quick improvement in ceilings thereafter.

Ahead of the front, sea fog is expected to develop and impact
KLBX/KGLS, with LIFR conditions possible 02-06Z this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1217 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

The last gasps of patchy dense fog is occurring at the coast, but
will be scoured out in the next few hours by a strong cold front.
The front is carrying scattered showers along with it, and there
may be a small chance of a stray lightning strike as well as the
front pushes across the waters overnight.

Very strong north winds, hazardous seas, and low water levels are
expected in the front`s wake. Currents may become strong near the
interface of the rivers and the bays during times of low water,
which may particularly be an issue on Galveston Bay. Winds and
seas slowly improve late Monday into Tuesday, though low water
will likely persist through at least Tuesday`s low tide cycle and
potentially deeper into the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1217 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

A strong cold front is sweeping across Southeast Texas this
evening, carrying a thin line of scattered showers along with it.
Behind the front, strong and gusty northerly winds are developing
in the front`s wake. Wind gusts in above 25 mph are virtually
certain across the area, and sustained winds above 25 mph are more
likely than not in open areas near and west of the Brazos River.
In these open western areas and near the Gulf coast, occasional
gusts as high as 40 to 45 mph may be seen. Along with the gusty
winds, we`ll also see much colder and drier conditions behind the
front. Indeed, as those strong winds are gradually declining
through the afternoon, we`ll see an overlap with afternoon RH
values dropping to the 15 to 25 percent range.

Monday could be a day with consideration for a red flag warning,
but the weather conditions should be mitigated by fuels that are
near or above normal moisture, per Texas A&M Forest Service data.
Still, with strong winds and low RH, it would be best to postpone
plans involving fire as much as possible. This is particularly
true in locations dominated by grasses, as these fine fuels will
respond very quickly to the dropping humidity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  43  49  35  55 /  60   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  47  53  37  54 /  30   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  50  52  43  51 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for TXZ176-195>198-210>212.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for TXZ214-226-227-235>238-
     313-335>338-436>439.

GM...Gale Warning until noon CST Monday for GMZ330-335.

     Low Water Advisory from 3 AM Monday to 6 PM CST Tuesday for
     GMZ335.

     Gale Warning until 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...35
MARINE...Luchs

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion