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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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301
FXUS64 KHGX 151135
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to occasionally numerous showers/storms expected
  again today. Portions of the area are in a Slight Risk (level 2
  of 4) of Excessive Rainfall.

- In addition to some localized heavy downpours, some 25-45mph
  wind gusts are possible in the isolated stronger cells.

- Higher pressure nudges into the region from the east later in
  the work week bringing a return to a more typical summertime
  weather pattern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Another day with elevated shower and thunderstorm activity is
expected with a mid/upper trof rotating around cntl Tx. Highest
PW`s should be situated along and south of the I-10 corridor, esp
near the Matagorda Bay area and lowest (but still respectable)
across the Piney Woods. Combination of some weak llvl convergence
near the coast should get some sct activity started toward morning-
eventually expanding further NE/inland as the day progresses
compliments of daytime heating and weak vort lobes rotating
about. There is a slight risk, level 2 of 4, of excessive rainfall
across most of the region. Overall, widespread flood issues
should be on the low side...but folks that have seen the 3-5"+
over the past few days will be the most prone to quick runoffs and
street flooding in any of the heavier downpours. With the column
not quite as saturated as it was yesterday, I wouldn`t be too
surprised to see some 25-45mph gusts in some of those more
intense cells as well.

Higher pressure to the east should nudge the Texas trof a bit
further westward Thurs & Fri. Corresponding chances of rain
should also decline on a day-to-day basis as this occurs heading
into the weekend. Not that it`ll go to zero, but we should
gradually return to more of a typical summertime pattern with more
sun, highs back up closer to the mid 90s, and iso-sct diurnally
driven precip. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

SHRA/TSRA have develop this morning near LBX, GLS, LVJ, and HOU.
These will generally remain near these sites for the next couple
hours then spread northward through the rest of the terminals
through the day. After 21-22z, a few lingering SHRA and maybe a
TSRA remains possible through 02z. VFR conditions are expected
thereafter, though CLL may see MVFR cigs after 10z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and 2 to 4 foot seas
prevail for the next several days. Speeds and seas could be a touch
higher in the overnight hours with a slightly tighter pressure
gradient setting up. Otherwise, another day or two of elevated storm
chances are on tap before things trend back to a more typical
summertime pattern heading into late week. Widespread severe weather
is not anticipated, though winds and seas will be higher in and near
any isolated more intense cells. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  84  72  88  74 /  60  20  40  20
Houston (IAH)  86  75  90  78 /  60  20  40   0
Galveston (GLS)  88  83  90  84 /  40  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion