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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

950
FXUS64 KHGX 092330
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
530 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and embedded storms this afternoon into the late
  evening. A few could pulse up to strong-severe levels.

- Front moves through overnight followed by colder temps and
  breezy north winds Saturday.

- Fair, seasonable weather into early next week followed by
  another midweek front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 107 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Scattered shower and isolated tstm coverage is on an uptick this
afternoon in advance of the next front that will be moving into
the region later today and overnight. There`s plenty of cloud
cover out there now, but sat pix are showing some intermittent
breaks. With a bit more destabilization on tap, we`ll need to keep
an eye out for the potential of a few embedded strong-severe
cells to emerge. In addition, given the high PW`s in place and
some regeneration/training, I wouldn`t be overly surprised to see
a narrow swath of 1-3" rainfall amounts emerge somewhere generally
north of the I-10 corridor between now and early-mid evening.
Given the ground conditions, not overly concerned with a
widespread FF threat, but could see some very localized street
flooding if, and where, it decides to do it in a short time
period. Frontal boundary catches up with the ongoing precip this
evening and should see a more progressive sewd movement thru the
metro area in the late evening and off the coast 1-3am.

Precip should mostly taper off behind the front for majority of
the area, though we could see some lingering showers closer to the
coast Saturday until we see a deeper northerly flow fill in. Much
cooler temperatures and breezy north winds are expected across
the region Saturday. Winds will gradually taper off Saturday night
and Sunday. Fair, seasonable wx is anticipated into early next
week.

A portion of today`s upper trof will cutoff and retrograde back
toward Baja this weekend...then eject back ewd and across the area
toward midweek. Guidance isn`t too bullish in regards to moisture
recovery between now and then...hence low/nil advertised POPs at
this time, but may need to add some down the road. Look for
another midweek front after this shortwave passes.  47

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 530 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Scattered SHRA/TSRA from IAH northward will force VC mentions for
the topline. As that activity wanes, focus will turn to cold front
with broken line of showers and storms along it - TEMPOs and/or
prevailing for a couple hours mark this frontal passage, though
PROB30s are used at LBX and GLS with a little uncertainty about
storms surviving all the way to the coast. GLS also has potential
for sea fog until frontal storms arrive to disperse it.

After front passes, winds switch to northwesterly/northerly and
become strong and gusty by morning. These winds and return to VFR
will be the main issue for the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 107 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Patchy fog will remain possible in the nearshore Gulf waters and
southern bays in advance of the next cold front that will be pushing
off the coast tonight. Showers and isolated storms will accompany
the front. We should see a wind shift along the coast around or
shortly after midnight, followed by increasing speeds as we head
into the 4-6am timeframe. Small Craft Advisories have been
issued for late tonight & Saturday. Moderate to occasionally
strong north winds and building seas are anticipated Saturday and
Saturday night before gradually diminishing Sunday. Light, mainly
onshore flow is anticipated early next week followed by another
cold front around Wednesday. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  46  58  37  60 /  70   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  54  63  41  61 /  80  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  58  66  48  60 /  50  30  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for GMZ330-
     335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion