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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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512
FXUS64 KHGX 241034
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
534 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible over the area this
  afternoon and evening... possibly overnight too.

- Gradual warming trend with temperatures reaching into the upper
  80s to lower 90s by this weekend.

- Above normal temperatures continue during the early to middle
  part of next week, with at least isolated showers and
  thunderstorms possible over portions of the region each day.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 534 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

The Storm Prediction Center has updated their Day 1 severe weather
outlook to now include portions of Houston, Trinity, and Polk
counties in a slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather for
today. We will be monitoring the development of a MCS (line of
strong to severe storms) around NE Texas/SW Arkansas later this
afternoon. Depending on how far westward it extends and how long
it holds together, it could pose a large hail and damaging wind
threat for portions of the Piney Woods this evening. Continue to
monitor the forecast for updates and be sure to remain weather
aware.

Batiste

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Warm and potentially active weather is still expected today. Zonal
mid level flow will be in place over the area with SFC CAPE from
around 1700-3500 J/KG and 500mb shear around 30-45 knots. Several
disturbances & impulses are expected to pass through the southern
Plains, some of which may pass through SE Texas this afternoon to
tap into this favorable instability. Upper levels are also showing a
strong diffluent right over the ArkLaTex area around this time
period as well, in tandem with a surface trough & dry line spanning
from around the Red River Valley to near Del Rio. Forecast soundings
show some drier air between 850mb-500mb, though weak capping and
steep midlevel lapse rates of 8.0-8.7 DegC/km should more than
enough to make up for that, with particularly deep CAPE in the hail
growth zone as well. CAMs don`t show particularly extensive coverage
in storms over our area, though given the environment it is entirely
possible that this is being underdone.

SPC has SE Texas under a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk of severe weather
for Today. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main severe
weather concerns. Extra emphasis on the hail, as SPC also has
portions of the the Brazos Vally/Piney Woods areas denoted for hail
intensity of CIG 1, suggesting greater potential for 2-inch size
hail. Time wise, these severe storms could develop during the
afternoon and evening. Additionally, we`ll need to keep and eye over
our north/northeast zones as well, as forecast models are also
showing a MCS developing over northeast Texas/ArkLaTex in the
evening. While CAM guidance thinks these storms should dissipate
before entering our CWA, it is certainly possible that this
convective systems holds together long enough to clip portions of
Texas overnight, as we`ve seen in other patterns with some component
of northwest flow in the upper levels.

Saturday is shaping up to see broadly similar conditions to Friday.
Some northern displacement in forcing features aloft should prove
less favorable for severe weather, though it won`t outright remove
the threat. Previous convection, outflow, and mesoscale interactions
from the day prior will likely modify the potential for
showers/storms & severe wx as well. Regardless, it`s worth keeping a
close eye on too. Sunday continues to see this broader trend of
lowering PoPs and a northeasterly shift in the main risk area for
severe weather. While rather far removed on Sunday and even more so
on Monday, these days will still feature fairly potent conditions
for severe weather. Even in spite of low pops, we`ll still be
keeping an eye out for any rogue impulses or shortwaves that could
jump start more potent wx, especially during those afternoons.

For next week, a much more robust shortwave trough is still expected
to fill northeast across the Plains, sending a cold front towards SE
Texas. This front should slow and stall around the Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods, though some isolated showers and storms are
still in play for our northern zones. A subtropical mid-level high
then builds in from the south on Tuesday, establishing more zonal
flow aloft and allowing for another series of shortwaves and
impulses to move over SE Texas. Anticipate daily rain chances
through late next week.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 534 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Widespread MVFR ceilings will continue through late this morning
before lifting back to VFR around 18Z. MVFR ceilings may linger
into the afternoon along the coast. Visibility restrictions have
been limited overnight due to elevated southerly winds. Winds will
be southerly around 10 kt late this morning and into the afternoon
before becoming light and variable overnight into Saturday
morning. Isolated showers and storms will be possible later this
afternoon/evening, but the potential is too low to warrant putting
it in any of the TAFs at this time. Due to the lighter winds,
there is a bit more confidence in IFR ceilings developing along
with reduced visibilities due to patchy fog overnight into
Saturday morning. At least widespread MVFR ceilings will filter in
from south to north again overnight.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds should continue through the
next several days. A long fetch of these southeasterly winds may
bring increased seas at times. This with periodically higher winds
may warrant caution flags at times. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day through the weekend. Above
normal water levels near 3.0 feet MLLW are still expect at each high
tide cycle through the end of the work week.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  86  70  89  71 /  20  10  20  20
Houston (IAH)  86  72  89  73 /  20  20  20   0
Galveston (GLS)  81  74  83  74 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion