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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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979
FXUS64 KHGX 071746
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1246 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing heat risk is expected through the coming week.

- Isolated heavy rainfall rates may result in isolated street
  flooding again today, mainly for areas north and west of Houston.
  Limited rain chances are forecast during the coming week.

- High risk of rip currents will persist through at least Monday
  night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A shortwave trough is currently moving eastward from KS/OK to
MO/AR. A mid-level shear axis/area of broadly cyclonic flow
extends southward to South Texas with an upper-level jet streak
also present. Mid and high level clouds are streaming northward
ahead of this feature along with some weak vorticity maxima from
convection over the southwest Gulf. HREF guidance continues to
indicate the highest probabilities for convection this afternoon
over northern/western portions of the area, mainly the Brazos
Valley and Piney Woods. High (2-2.2") PWATs remain in place,
resulting in a continued risk for isolated high rainfall
rates/street flooding, with a Level 1 out of 4 (marginal) risk of
excessive rainfall from WPC. Thankfully this risk appears to be
northwest of Houston. Storms in this area may also produce gusty
winds with a little more dry air aloft/DCAPE than previous days.
Closer to the coast, showers should be more isolated with some
light rain/sprinkles also being possible at times continuing
through tonight due to some mid-level moisture/lift.

On Monday the weak shear axis aloft will be weakening as ridging
builds westward from the Gulf with rising heights. PWATs begin to
drop to around 1.8-1.9". Convection should be more isolated than
previous days, but still present, mainly for inland areas.
Temperatures will begin their warming trend, with values in the
lower 90s in inland areas and heat indices around 100.

Subtropical ridging will gradually retrograde westward from the
Gulf to West Texas through the week, while a deep trough moves
through the Northern Plains and the Upper Midwest. The ridge and
drier air aloft will limit convective coverage, but still expect
that hot and humid conditions and the sea breeze will result in
isolated to widely scattered activity at times. Temperatures warm
into the lower to mid 90s by the end of the week. HeatRisk will
mainly be in the moderate category with a few pockets of major.
Probabilities of reaching advisory criteria (108F) will be low,
with NBM dew points likely running a bit high, but heat will
especially be a concern for those visiting the area who are not
accustomed to the heat.

JDavis

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Widespread MVFR ceilings are present early this morning along with
isolated showers. Expect the MVFR ceilings to continue through at
least the mid-morning hours with coverage of showers and the
development of thunderstorms later this morning into the
afternoon. The highest confidence for thunderstorm activity will
generally be north of IAH. Terminals near and south of I-10
(except for SGR) will retain a PROB30 or VCSH as the thunderstorm
potential is lower. Southerly winds will be gusty today with
sustained winds around 10-15 kt with gusts in the 20-25 kt range
through the afternoon.

Shower/storm coverage decreases after 00Z, but lingering light
rain is anticipated along the coast late in the afternoon and into
the evening. Expect MVFR to IFR ceilings to develop late this
evening into Monday morning.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Onshore winds will continue for the the next week. Winds currently
are around small craft exercise caution criteria, so flags have
been issued through tomorrow morning. Additionally, the winds
will oscillate in and out of small craft exercise caution criteria
during the week. Isolated showers and storms will be possible
early this week but chances decrease as the week goes on.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  91  74  91 /   0  20   0  10
Houston (IAH)  78  89  76  91 /  20  10   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  83  86  82  87 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Monday morning for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDavis
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...JDavis

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion