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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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856
FXUS64 KHGX 021107
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
507 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend today & Tuesday...though with gradually
  increasing cloud cover today and rain chances Tuesday.

- Low astronomical tides will lead to negative water levels around low
  tide cycles again today. Increasing winds/seas in the waters.

- The next front that will be pushing through Tuesday night.
  Precipitation ends with its passage. Dry and mostly seasonable
  Wednesday onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1214 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

With higher pressure moving off to the east and lowing pressure to
our west, we`ll see an increasing s/sswly low level flow set up
across the area. This flow will diving increasing Gulf moisture and
cloud cover back into the region today into Tuesday. Levels below
about 800mb become decently saturated this evening into Tuesday, and
combined with some weak Pacific disturbance moving
overhead...we`ll probably see some shower development across the
region as the day progresses Tue. Not so sure, well see tstms, as
several of the model fcst soundings do show some capping around
700mb.

Heading into Tuesday evening/night, amplifying ridge to our west and
deepening trof across the central/eastern parts of the country
should allow our next front to slide through the region (probably
off the coast prior to sunrise Wed). With some cooling aloft and
some surface convergence/forcing, we may be able to erode the cap
enough to get a few embedded storms...though instability isn`t
impressive.

Ridging behind the front should bring fairly nice wx to the
region Wednesday afternoon onward with lows generally in the 40s
and highs in the 60s & 70s. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 458 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Patchy fog has developed early today, generally west and
southwest of the Houston metro area across the coastal plains.
These areas (KLBX/KSGR) should see FLs as low as IFR/LIFR early
today from pockets of fog. Visibility should improve after sunrise
with VFR conditions returning during the daytime. Later tonight,
CIGs should slowly fill in from the north, bringing MVFR
conditions to sites around the houston area, and possibility IFR
conditions further north across the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area.
Light showers should also develop during the daytime on Tuesday
ahead of a cold front.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1214 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Onshore flow has resumed and will gradually increase through
Tuesday. Wind speeds and building seas may warrant caution or
advisory flags well offshore Monday night. Astronomical tides remain
low, and mariners should anticipate negative water levels around low
tide cycles through Monday afternoon. There is some potential for
patchy sea fog Tuesday morning and again Tuesday evening and night,
though conditions are not especially favorable for the dense variety
(ie wind speeds/directions)...more than likely the 3-6nm visibility
kind. A cold front pushes offshore late Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning. Showers are expected along and ahead of the front
with moderate northerly winds in its wake. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  70  57  71  43 /   0  10  40  10
Houston (IAH)  70  56  71  48 /   0  10  70  60
Galveston (GLS)  62  58  65  51 /   0  10  50  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Low Water Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ330-335.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...03
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion