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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

004
FXUS64 KHGX 292327
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
627 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms (especially north of I-10)
  today and tomorrow. Isolated more intense cells will capable of
  producing hail, gusty winds, and brief heavy downpours.

- Strong late season cold front, and associated rain/storms, will
  push through the area Friday and Friday night followed by much
  cooler and breezy conditions in its wake.

- Strong winds (possible gales) and 6-12ft seas are expected in
  the coastal waters Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Rest of today and this evening:
Diffuse frontal boundary stretching from just north of our CWA
border into cntl TX will slowly sag southward. perturbations in
the mid/upper levels have initiated scattered elevated storms
behind the front this afternoon in NE TX and also cntl/scntl TX.
Cloud cover has kept instability in check locally so far, but
satellite imagery is showing some thinning and some breaks of sun.
Let`s keep an eye out for potential a few isolated-scattered tstms
to develop and/or propagate into the region into the late
evening...mainly areas north of I-10. Widespread severe weather is
not anticipated, though the atmos could become unstable enough to
support large hail or gusty winds in any rouge intense cells that
may (or may not) develop.

Thursday and Thursday evening:
Same general setup as described above, but with mid/upper ridging
being suppressed a bit further south and the diffuse, nearly
stationary, front meandering about in our area...the thinking is
that we`ll probably see a bit more coverage than what we`re seeing
today.

Thursday night and Friday:
A deeper mid-upper trough begins approaching from the west
Thursday night with some leading impulses in advance. Anticipate
increasing shra/tstm development to our west Thursday night
associated with the larger scale lift...eventually overspreading
SE TX as the day progresses Friday. Complicating the scenario is
the high PW`s in place, a potential H85 low developing on the
frontal zone, and a bit of upper diffluence. This general setup
tends to set up a llvl convergent zone that focuses some
persistent and/or training rains and might lead to a swath of
higher qpf totals. Exactly where this sets up isn`t clear...but
probably somewhere north of the I69-I10 corridor. Along and north
of this zone, look for some 2-4" totals...less to the south. The
ground should be able to absorb those amounts if they`re spread
over a 6+ hour period. That said, any embedded more intense
training cells can easily drop that in an hour or two and
initiate some street flooding. Will also need to watch locations
near the near the warm sector (coastal or nearshore areas) for an
isolated rotating storm or two.

This wave will push off to the east Friday evening and night
followed by the cold front. Rain will taper off, winds will become
breezy and cooler temperatures will advect into the region.

Weekend:
Breezy on Saturday, but the weekend wx looks quite pleasant with
drier and less humid conditions. Overnight lows in the 50s and
daytime highs in the 70s.

Early next week:
A gradual warming/modifying trend as high pressure moves off to
the east and onshore winds resume. It appear moisture levels will
recover enough for scattered tstm development in advance of a
Pacific front moving into the region Wednesday-ish.  47

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Confidence has lowered on potential for TSRA affecting the
terminals tonight so have removed mention of thunder from the
TAFs. Have maintained VCSH through Thursday morning for
KCLL/KUTS/KCXO. The primary issue tonight/Thursday will be low
ceilings and fog developing in the wake of the cold front as it
moves slowly south across the area. The front has passed KCLL/KUTS
and is expected to move slowly across the Houston terminals
04-08Z before stalling. Ceilings will lower to MVFR/IFR levels
tonight north of the front and will persist through Thursday.
Visibilities of 3-6SM are likely in patchy fog as well. South of
the front KLBX/KGLS will see MVFR ceilings overnight improving to
VFR by 18Z Thursday.  35


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Onshore winds in the 10-15kt range will diminish overnight as a
weak frontal boundary moves into parts of southeast Texas and
stalls. The pressure gradient could be weak enough whereas a very
weak landbreeze develops by morning. Any light north winds in the
coastal waters early in the morning will quickly transition back
to the southeast by early afternoon Thursday.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will be on the increase Friday
and winds will back to the east northeast 20-25kt in advance of a
cold front that will be moving into the bays early in the
evening. Strong northerly winds (25-35kt) and elevated seas
(6-12ft) are expected in the wake of the front. Gale Warnings may
be required for the bays and Gulf. Winds and seas should
gradually diminish Saturday evening and Sunday. Onshore flow will
resume early next week as high pressure moves off to the east. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  67  77  60  64 /  40  30  80 100
Houston (IAH)  72  83  65  69 /  30  40  50 100
Galveston (GLS)  75  80  71  78 /  10  10  40  90

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...35
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion