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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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386
FXUS64 KHGX 291847
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
147 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly drier air briefly moves in from the east today.

- Rain chances return Friday through the weekend as moisture
  levels increase and a few upper level disturbances pass through.

- A cold front could move across Southeast Texas sometime early
  next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A drier airmass pushing in from the east today, will result in
low rain chances for much of Southeast Texas. Some drizzle or very
light showers could occur over the Brazos Valley as a mid level
vort max moves through. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies
becoming cloudy this evening, accompanied by east to southeast
winds at 5 to 10 mph. The highs will peak in the lower 80s this
afternoon over the majority of the CWA and the lows will be in
the 60s overnight. Although conditions will be mostly calm
tonight, another vort max could move through areas north of I-10
and could lead to some drizzle if moisture is enough to support
that.

We are expecting increasing rain chances on Friday as a mid level
disturbance moves overhead while warm moist air from the Western
Gulf/Lower Texas Coast moves northward into Southeast Texas. NBM
has scattered showers mainly for areas south of I-10 and west of
I-45 during the morning hours. Rain chances in the afternoon
increase over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods. Elsewhere, NBM
only carries isolated showers and thunderstorms, likely where
there is less moisture to play with. In the afternoon, the GFS
does shift the vort max over or just east of the I-10 corridor;
Thus, I wouldn`t be surprised if some locations near or east of
I-45 get a little more activity than what is currently on the
forecast. Rain chances will remain in the forecast Friday night
as weaknesses continue to pass through. Rain and cloudy skies
will lead to highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s on Friday, but
increase lows a degree or two on Friday night.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will rise further on Saturday as
additional mid level weaknesses move overhead while PWATs range
between 1.5 to 1.9 inches. Look for isolated to scattered showers
and storms in the morning, and scattered to numerous showers and
storms in the afternoon. Rain chances will decrease in the
evening, with mostly tranquil conditions expected from Sunday and
Monday as a mid to upper level ridge builds overhead. We will
still have some moisture in place for both days, and with the
ridging overhead, expected temperatures to be a little warmer with
highs generally ranging in the mid 80s over many locations by
Monday.

We are still keeping an eye on a stronger mid to upper level
trough moving into the Southern Plains early next week, which
could potentially bring in a cold front sometime Tuesday or
Tuesday night. Environmental conditions could favor strong storms
ahead and along the front. However, there is still uncertainty
between the forecast models on the timing and potential for strong
to severe storms at this time. The good news is that there is
good consensus on cooler conditions after the FROPA.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Generally VFR conditions expected through Friday with extensive
mid level cloud cover. Ceilings will average around 12kft. Light
showers will impact KCLL terminal this afternoon but expect
visibilities to remain well above 6SM. Expect east winds 7-11 kts
this afternoon and again Friday. Risk of -SHRA again near KCLL
later tonight and KIAH Friday afternoon but probability of any
visibility impacts very low.

35/MM&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Light to occasionally moderate east to southeast winds and seas of
2 to 4 feet are expected through the weekend. Rain chances will
return Friday morning and increase on Saturday. Low rain chances
expected Sunday into Monday as high pressure builds overhead. Winds
look to increase late Monday as the local pressure gradient
tightens ahead of a potential cold front. Shower and storm chances
will also increase ahead of the FROPA on Tuesday. There are
uncertainties in the forecast models concerning the timing of the
FROPA, and it could push into the coastal waters sometime Tuesday
evening or early Wednesday. Timing could change a but during the
next few forecast updates. Expect moderate to strong northwest or
north winds and building seas in the wake of the front. Caution
flags and Small Craft Advisories may be needed.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  81  63  78  63 /  10   0  10  30
Houston (IAH)  83  65  80  66 /   0   0  10  40
Galveston (GLS)  80  71  78  71 /   0   0  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cotto
AVIATION...35
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion