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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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224
FXUS64 KHGX 121132
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
532 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Though conditions will be gradually improving, elevated seas offshore
  will take a while to subside. Negative tide levels are
  anticipated in the bays for a couple of days.

- Fairly seasonable weather is expected through most of the week.

- The next two cold fronts are forecast to push through Wednesday
  and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

GOES-16 Satellite shows increasing cloud cover moving in from the SW
tonight. This can be attributed to a cutoff low stationed near Baja
gradually progresses eastward over the next couple of days.
Expect cloudy skies to continue as it makes its eastward
progression; however, with minimal moisture recovery, conditions
should remain dry as it passes overhead. At most could see a few
sprinkles or virga (lower levels remain dry, so any moisture falling
through this layer would evaporate pretty quickly).

The aforementioned low will get absorbed into a deepening trough
over the eastern CONUS on Wednesday, and will eject a front into SE
Texas in the process. Ahead of the front, look for SW/W flow to
bring in a brief period of WAA...just enough to allow highs to jump
back into the mid/upper 60s to low 70s on Wednesday. The FROPA is
expected to pass during the afternoon/evening hours on Wednesday,
with a secondary front occurring sometime Friday night into
Saturday. Ensembles have backed off on moisture availability with
both the ECMWF and the NAEFS showing PW values in the 10th
percentile to average range. NBM has also backed off, so at this
time have majority of the area at a less than 10% chance for
precipitation.

Bottom line is that temperatures will spend the week back and forth
between the 50s/60s to 60s/low 70s during the day as a series of
fronts moves through. Moisture return will be brief and may not
yield any precipitation ahead of each front. Lows will generally be
in the 30s to 40s each night.

Bailey

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 435 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conditions with passing BKN to OVC mid and high level clouds.
Light northeasterly winds during the daytime become more variable
by sunset.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1231 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Offshore winds will continue through the majority of the week. Mariners
should anticipate some negative tide levels through at least mid-
week, potentially through the end of the week, moreso in the
central and northern half of the the bays. A Low Water Advisory is
in effect there and may be extended. Otherwise, look for light
winds and falling seas early in the week. The next front is
expected to push into the waters Wednesday afternoon with
increasing northwest and north winds filling in behind it
Wednesday night. Small Craft Advisory conditions look probable.

Bailey

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  62  44  62  44 /   0  10  10   0
Houston (IAH)  62  44  62  47 /   0  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  59  52  60  53 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Low Water Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for GMZ335.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Bailey

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion