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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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627
FXUS64 KHGX 281759
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1159 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog will remain a possibility nightly through the weekend,
  especially in the coastal areas.

- Unseasonably warm weather will continue through the start of
  next week.

- Few cold fronts will try but are unlikely to reach SE Texas next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Onshore another warm day is in store for this afternoon. There`s
still a ~12F dewpoint gradient from north to south across SE
Texas. Thus, RH values are expected to fall to generally 30-50%
across inland areas and 50-80% near the coast. Highs should remain
in the 70s/mid 80s with lows in the 50s/lower 60s. With onshore
flow remaining in place and moisture poised to keep rising, sea
fog will remain the primary hazard to focus on over the weekend,
appearing in the bays/nearshore waters and coastline during the
nighttime, then spreading inland and becoming more extensive
during the early morning hours. Still, the broader extent and
intensity of fog should wane heading into next week as waters
slowly warm.

We`re still expecting a few shortwaves & disturbances to pass north
of our area next week. First of these occurs on Monday, where a cold
front attempts to scoot its way towards SE Texas, but stalls near
north-central Texas. The next front should be approaching SE Texas
around mid week on Wednesday, but it too is anticipated to stall out
near the Red River Valley. Even without the front, deeper moisture
and shortwave energy overhead may still bring some showers and
storms across the area beginning around mid week. Yet another front
will try to push towards the area on Friday, but even this one
appears to stall before reaching SE Texas. LREF Ensembles back the
deterministic models, still showing strong consensus on a
southerly wind direction all through the upcoming work week.
Cloud cover and showers may help shave off some of the heat, but
warm weather will still dominate with highs in the 70s/mid 80s
with lows in the 60s.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 512 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Satellite shows areas of patchy to dense fog expanding generally
over the southern and western locations of Southeast TX. Thus, we
will likely continue to see LIFR-MVFR vis and cigs for GLS, LBX,
SGR, and HOU. Lower visibilities could also affect IAH and CLL,
depending on how far northward the fog moves. Fog is expected to
burn off and cigs will scatter out shortly after 14-15Z. However,
conditions may be slower to improve over GLS and LBX due to
persisting sea fog over the bays and nearshore Gulf waters. Expect
SE winds at 6-12 KTS today, becoming light and VRB this evening.
We will once again see low vis and cigs tonight into Sun morning
as fog re-develops over portions of Southeast TX.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Some patchy fog may linger in the coastal waters during the
afternoon hours. Cannot rule out additional extensions of the marine
fog advisory if conditions do not improve. Another round of fog is
anticipated tonight into Sunday morning. Fog may be patchier in
nature compared to previous nights, though anticipate larger
increases in coverage and intensity by early Sunday morning. Still,
warming water temperatures should start to decrease the chances for
sea fog Sunday night into Monday as waters warm. Otherwise, expect
light winds and low seas will continue through at least mid week.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  58  82  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  61  81  60  81 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  62  73  63  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion