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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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783
FXUS64 KHGX 071121
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
521 AM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures through Friday. Many locations will be
  near or above record highs.

- Lower sea fog risk tonight, some patches still possible.

- Some rain chances re-enter the forecast Thurs-Fri for parts of
  the area in advance of the next cold front Friday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1223 AM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

The dry line/cold front is currently situated around the northern
edge of our CWA early today. While it may sag a tad further south
leading up to sunrise, the furthest south it could possibly get
would be Conroe. Areas to the north of the front may see cooler and
drier conditions this morning, though by in large most of SE Texas
will remain very humid for the time being. Even if you somehow don`t
feel that moisture, you`ll be more than capable of seeing it in the
form of fog, especially near the coast as sea fog is advected over
the islands/inland. South to southwest winds aren`t the most ideal,
but again moisture is abundant and nearshore water temperatures are
sufficiently cool to produce it. We`re already seeing hazy
conditions across the coastline, so it wouldn`t be surprised if
several dense pockets continue to spread inland later this morning.
Fog should begin to clear out after sunrise with the stalled surface
cold front lifting north this afternoon. Anticipate another warm day
with highs in the 70s/lower 80s. Still above normal to record highs
for this time of the year.

Onshore winds strengthen tonight as a surface low develops & deepens
near the Oklahoma Panhandle from an approaching shortwave trough.
These stronger onshore winds will mitigate the threat of sea fog,
though hazy conditions and a few patches will still be possible in a
few spots. The shortwave trough should fill northeasterly into
Thursday, pushing another dryline/cold front towards SE Texas. Due
to the shortwave filling north, this boundary will likely stall near
the northern edge of our CWA, though we`ll still see some scattered
showers out ahead of it on Thursday.

A much deeper mid/upper level trough will pass through the Plains on
Friday, providing better support for showers/storms throughout the
area. It will also reinforce the stalled boundary, pushing the cold
front through SE Texas Friday night into early Saturday morning.
Cooler and drier weather prevails over the the weekends as surface
high pressure fills over the area and pushes off to the east. Highs
will generally be in the mid 50s/lower 60s with early morning lows
in the 30s/40s, potentially touching the freezing mark in the Piney
Woods area around Crockett. Uncertainty grows heading into next
week, but broadly cool weather and drier weather is slated to
continue.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 513 AM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

Dense fog and low cigs are resulting in widespread IFR/LIFR
conditions this morning. These conditions should slowly improve as
the morning progresses. We expect most locations to be VFR by the
afternoon. Winds should increase somewhat from the south to
southeast during the afternoon hours. Expect decreasing cigs/vis
once again overnight, with widespread MVFR likely. Could have
areas of IFR as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1223 AM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

Seeing hazy conditions across the nearshore waters and bays early
this morning, and given the humid airmass there is still a risk of
dense pockets of sea fog growing in size early this morning.
Southerly winds should increase tonight, with building seas
warranting caution flags and potentially a Small Craft Advisory for
the offshore waters. The increased winds should help further
mitigate the risk of sea fog, but it will not fully get rid of it.
Winds decrease Thursday night into Friday ahead of a cold front,
which should push off the coast Friday night. Moderate to strong
northerly winds behind the front will likely result in Small Craft
Advisories over the better half of the weekend.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  80  65  80  66 /   0   0  20  10
Houston (IAH)  80  67  79  69 /   0   0  30  10
Galveston (GLS)  72  65  73  66 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ163-164-
     176>179-196>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
     436>439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335-
     350-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion