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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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188
FXUS64 KHGX 090618
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
118 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect increasingly warm and humid conditions as the week
  progresses.

- Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms persist into next week.

- Strong rip currents possible along Gulf-facing beaches this week.

- Monitoring the potential for strong to severe storms early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Daily rain chances continue through the long-term period as moisture
availability continues to increase in response to the return of
onshore flow. Thursday`s rain chances will be further aided by a
developing coastal trough. Best chances for rainfall lie west of I-
45 where moisture is more focused. Not seeing as strong of a signal
for morning activity. HREF shows more isolated to scattered activity
popping up in early afternoon (likely due to daytime heating).

As for Friday, an embedded shortwave trough will contribute to
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. 500 mb heights
still look to increase through the day, leading to some subsidence;
however, also seeing some 500 mb pulses of energy riding along and
south of I-10 across the Coastal Plains. That being said, expect
showers to win the battle against subsidence for portions of
southeast Texas (likely south of I-10).

Ridging is expected to move off to the east for Saturday, providing
a shot at precipitation for areas further west of I-45. Lower end
chances expected elsewhere. An LLJ and corresponding jet streak may
provide further lift, and with the available moisture, may see some
of these showers and storms produce locally heavy rainfall. As a
result, WPC has placed the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods in a
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for Sunday.

As the ridge moves east, an upper-level low will push into the
Plains from the Pacific NW early next week. As it does, a dryline is
expected to set up in western Texas. Furthermore, a surface low
is expected to develop on the lee side of the Rocky Mountains.
This will position southeast Texas in the warm sector of the
surface low. All that to say...we have plenty of moisture and
instability and a nearby mid-level jet, so looking at the
potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms early next week.
SPC has already placed portions of the Brazos Valley and Piney
woods in a 15% chance of severe weather for Tuesday (and with it
being pretty far out, I suspect that probability will change and
the area will shift). In any case, as we get into next week, it is
important to stay up to date on the forecast for the latest
details.

Bailey

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Present southeasterly winds are expected to drop off after sunset
with speeds returning to around 5 to 6 knots. Continued trends in
the CAMs are expecting low-level moisture to increase during the
overnight period, which will likely result in MVFR ceilings for
multiple sites as we near sunrise. Patchy fog is also something
that can`t be fully ruled out with best chance currently at our
western taf sites. Otherwise, conditions should start to return
to VFR by the late morning with a low (10 to 20 percent) chance
of storms that afternoon.

Scoleri

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 117 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds occurring tonight. Small
Craft should exercise caution through Friday morning. Another
result of the increased onshore flow is the increased risk of
strong rip currents along Gulf-facing beaches towards the end of
the work week and going into the weekend. Expect wave heights to
increase as well due to an extended fetch of easterly to east-
southeasterly winds stretching to the eastern Gulf brings a swell
of elevated seas. Seas expected to peak in the 4-7 ft range in the
Gulf waters through the weekend. Winds further increase over the
weekend and into early next week. Small Craft Advisories cannot be
ruled out. Daily chances for showers and storms will persist
going into next week, but these chances peak late Thursday into
Friday as an upper level disturbance pushes through the area.
Elevated winds and seas could occur in and around thunderstorms.

Bailey

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  82  65  80  66 /  20  10  60  20
Houston (IAH)  82  68  80  68 /  20  20  70  10
Galveston (GLS)  76  70  76  71 /  20  30  70  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Friday morning for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...Scoleri
MARINE...Bailey

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion