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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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522
FXUS64 KHGX 262359
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
659 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory continues today. Continued hot and humid
  conditions are expected on Thursday, but increased cloud cover
  and rain chances has lowered the chance for Heat Advisory
  conditions. Regardless, continue to use heat safety practices.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible tonight with
  scattered activity expected Thursday into Friday morning.

- Isolated showers and storms possible through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Summer heat continues today as abundant sunshine will lead to
afternoon temperatures reaching into the 100-103 degree range for
most areas along and north of I-10 with areas closer to the coast
remaining in the mid to upper 90s. High dew points will bring heat
indices into the 107-110 degree range for most of the region today,
thus the Heat Advisory remains in place today across the area.

For the first time in awhile, we are looking at the potential for
some late evening/overnight showers and thunderstorms to move into
the area from the north. The dominate high pressure that has been
over the region the past several days is beginning to shift a little
further westward to the Four Corner region. This will bring
northwesterly flow aloft over Texas with embedded disturbances
moving through the flow. The first of these weak disturbances will
push through tonight into Thursday bringing that chance showers
and thunderstorms. As of right now, coverage looks to be fairly
isolated tonight, and remaining mostly north of the I-10 Corridor
- but, I wouldn`t be shocked to see a more scattered coverage of
storms after the past several days of heating and abundant
moisture (PWATs nearing 2-2.2"). Expecting to see an increase in
shower and thunderstorm coverage during the day on Thursday as
daytime heating and passing vort maxes aid in storm development.
Lingering shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible into
Thursday night, especially along and south of I-10, but the bulk
of the activity should push off the coast for Friday. While severe
thunderstorms are not likely the next few days, any thunderstorm
that develops could become strong, producing gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall. Additional isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible over the weekend as a weak
disturbance moves westward across the northern Gulf.

Turning the focus back onto heat - tomorrow will be a tricky
forecast for the need of a Heat Advisory as it will depend largely
on amount of cloud cover and rainfall coverage. Less activity = more
likely to need a Heat Advisory, more activity = less likely to need
a Heat Advisory. Have opted to not put out a Heat Advisory for
tomorrow at this time, but if forecast trends are for less
shower/thunderstorm activity, then an Advisory may be issued during
later shifts. Regardless, summer-time heat with temperatures in the
90s (and approaching 100 degrees in spots) means to continue to take
precautions against heat-related illnesses: stay hydrated and take
breaks if working outside. Temperatures will continue to slowly cool
(though still hot) through the weekend with high temperatures
generally in the mid 90s.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 658 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Isol showers are beginning to drift southward over CLL, as a
shortwave trough moves through the n`rn region. These showers remain
lgt and are not anticipated to reduce VIS to MVFR. The main
chance for SHRA across CLL/UTS/CXO/IAH/HOU begins in the early
morning around 9-11z with POPs between 20-30%. These can generate
momentary MVFR conditions. The afternoon carries the main
probability of convection, starting around 21z, and stretching
through the remaining TAF period. The remainder of the day is
expected to be VFR, outside of any storms, with a SSW breeze of
5-10kts.

CMW

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

South to southwesterly flow around 10-15kt will continue through
Friday morning with light onshore flow then persisting through the
weekend along with seas around 1-3ft. Winds in the early morning
hours could be more west to north at times. There will be increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters late
Thursday into Friday with isolated chances continuing into this
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  79 100  76  97 /  30  30  30  20
Houston (IAH)  81 100  79  96 /  20  30  40  30
Galveston (GLS)  84  92  82  91 /  10  20  40  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...CMW
MARINE...Fowler

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion