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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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200
FXUS64 KHGX 091819
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
119 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly cloudy, warm, muggy, and breezy conditions Tuesday.

- Next weather system and associated band of storms push across
  the region late Tuesday night into Wednesday followed by cooler,
  breezy, and seasonal conditions to end the work week.

- Some hazardous marine conditions mariners and Spring Breaker`s
  should be aware of: some fog tonight, rip currents & building
  surf Tue-Wed, moderate to strong north winds Wed night and Thurs
  (typically inflatables are discouraged by beach patrol with
  offshore winds).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Higher dewpoint air is moving back inland as the old frontal
boundary washed out and southeast winds have resumed. We`ll
probably see some sct shra and iso tstm development this
afternoon, esp north of I-10 as we get a little additional
heating. This activity should wane this evening.

Pressure gradient tightens on Tuesday in advance of the next storm
system that`ll be making its way eastward into the region. SSE
winds will be increasing to 15-25mph through the day. Though
moisture availability will be in place, significant forcing
mechanisms don`t appear to be. So, am not expecting much of
significance in terms of precip.

As the western mid-upper trof begins moving closer and into Texas
Tuesday night, large scale lift should be on an upward trend and
anticipate that we`ll see a band of showers and storms initiate
across West Texas. This precip should make its way into the Brazos
Valley just prior to sunrise Wed then continue advancing across
the remainder of the region during the day...followed by some
wrap-around light rain and the frontal passage after the initial
convection passes. In terms of severe wx, we`ll have a 40-45kt
llj, modest CAPEs, and a touch of upper diffluence in place. That
said, overall instability looks somewhat marginal considering the
time of day (unless the system timing ends up slower than fcst).
It`s something to keep an eye on given that it is spring, but as
of this writing it looks to me like one of times we see some
localized 25-40mph gusts and brief heavy downpours on the stronger
segments of the progressive line of precip. But again...we`ll
watch guidance trends should the atmos decide to have other
plans.

Cooler and breezy conditions are expected Wednesday night and Thursday.
As high pressure moves off to the east and onshore winds resume
Thurs night, a gradual warm-up is fcst into the weekend (though
still fairly pleasant wx). Another fairly healthy front is
expected Sunday night-ish. It`s looking somewhat moisture
starved. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 536 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Widespread MVFR conditions (CIGs around 1500-2000) are being seen
across the area this morning with areas of IFR conditions south of
SGR (CIGs around 600-800ft). There may be a brief window of CIGs
around 700ft for the rest of the region through around 14z, but
MVFR conditions are expected to largely prevail. CIGs lift through
the late morning with VFR conditions prevailing this afternoon
into this evening. A return to MVFR conditions is expected between
4-6z tonight, with again potential for IFR CIGs late tonight into
early Tuesday morning.

Southerly winds around 7-12kt will develop later this morning and
continue through the day. Winds decrease to around 5-8kt
overnight, but remain southerly.

Isolated showers are possible this afternoon between 19-23z, but
coverage will be so limited that it could not be included in the
TAFs.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 119 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Some hazy conditions due to patchy fog will linger in the
nearshore waters. Though visibilities will remain reduced tonight,
it appears that the dense variety is more probable in the Gulf
waters off Galveston versus the bays. By late Tuesday night,
southerly winds appear strong enough to mitigate any low
visibilities. Otherwise, increasing onshore winds and building
seas are anticipated Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of the next
storm system that will be pushing through the area. Caution/Advisory
flags will likely be required at some point later on Tues. In
addition, risk of rip currents will increase along area beaches
thru Thursday (swim near a lifeguard and away from rocks, jetties,
piers). Expect storms ahead of the cold front to be moving off
the coast Wednesday afternoon, followed strong north winds and
building seas in its wake for Wednesday night into Thursday.
Gusts to near gale are a possibility along with 6-10ft seas.
Improving conditions Friday and this weekend as light onshore
winds resume. Possibly another moderate-strong front Sunday night
or Monday. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  69  84  66  76 /  10  30  70  90
Houston (IAH)  71  84  72  79 /  10  10  30  90
Galveston (GLS)  69  76  70  76 /  10  10  10  80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion