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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

714
FXUS64 KHGX 291145
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
645 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate to major heat risk today, with generally moderate heat
  risk each day through Thursday. Peak heat index values between
  103-108F (39-42C).

- High rip current risk along area beaches through this evening

- Low to moderate rain chances Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Mid-lvl ridging over the Mississippi Valley will continue to
shift northeastward into the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic by mid-week
before the Western US trough/eastern US ridge configuration begins
to break down Friday into the weekend. The subsequent CONUS
synoptic pattern will be characterized by dual ridges over the SE
CONUS and Southwest with a low amplitude inverted trough
(weakness) positioned in the vicinity of the western Gulf and SE
TX. At the surface, high pressure over the eastern Gulf will shift
westward towards the mid-week period somewhat relaxing the
pressure gradient over our area before shifting back east in the
late week period.

Rain chances today will continue to be limited by dry air aloft,
reinforced by the ongoing Saharan Dust intrusion. There remains just
enough low-lvl moisture and near-coastal convergence in breezy
southerly flow to support low-end rain chances around 10% but
coverage and intensity appears quite spotty. As the SAL plume exits
to the north on Tuesday, sea-breeze induced convective coverage will
increase as PWATs increase into the 1.7 to 1.8 inch range, so
bumped up PoPs into the 20-35% range focused just inland of the
coast. Storm coverage in the mid to late week period will
generally be isolated-scattered and largely sea-breeze induced as
the weak disturbances progressing along the southern flank of the
ridge will focus higher rain chances over Louisiana and far east
Texas. Rain chances for the July 4th weekend look to be about
15-30% but confidence is not high in details at this time horizon.

Did think at least consider a heat advisory for inland locations
today as some warmer spots may briefly hit ApparentT criteria,
but the SAL plume would nudge me against issuance, as we may mix
just enough drier air down to keep peak heat indices in the 105 to
108 degree range. Regardless of headlines, heat-related
precautions should still definitely be taken with moderate to
major heat risk and generally red (high) WBGT risk. Peak heat
indices in the 103-107 range will continue to be the norm through
most of the upcoming workweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Currently, patchy MVFR/low level stratus clouds continue to
intermittently impact a handful of terminals this morning. Cloud
bases should lift and erode sometime between 14-16Z this morning,
resulting in prevailing VFR conditions through much of remainder
of the period. Bumped up wind speeds a touch at most TAF sites,
with guidance suggesting sustained southerly winds around 10-15
knots, with occasional to frequent gusts up to 25 knots at the
typical windier sites. Low level stratus/MVFR ceilings may build
back in after sunset and into the overnight hours, but was
forecast confidence was too low to mention MVFR in the TAFs at
this time. Ceilings may need to be added in later amendments or
later routine forecasts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Fresh southerly winds this morning will decrease into the moderate
range this afternoon and then further decrease into the gentle range
in the mid-week period as the pressure gradient slackens. 3 to 5
foot seas this morning will decrease to 2 to 3 feet by mid-week.
There will be a high risk of rip currents today and this elevated
risk may persist into Tuesday. Very low rain chances today will
increase into the low and medium range Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  96  75  94  75 /   0   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)  94  77  93  77 /  10  10  20   0
Galveston (GLS)  89  82  89  83 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-335-
     350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NC
AVIATION...Mejia
MARINE...NC

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion