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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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643
FXUS64 KHGX 251838
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1238 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation has ended across the area but icy spots on
  roadways continue. Check road conditions before traveling. Any
  remaining moisture on roadways will likely freeze tonight and
  result in additional icy spots through at least Monday.

- Extended periods of below freezing temperatures along with hard
  freezes are expected Sunday morning through Tuesday morning.
  Portions of the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley will also see hard
  freezes Wednesday morning.

- Dangerously cold wind chills are expected tonight, with values
  ranging from as low as 15 degrees at the coast and as low as
  near 5 degrees in the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1220 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

All precipitation has exited the forecast area, but temperatures
have been dropping through the morning thanks to strong cold air
advection off of the sleetpack/snowpack to our northwest and
persistent stratus/stratocumulus clouds. Temperatures have dropped
below freezing across a large portion of the forecast area, and will
only warm up a tiny bit during the afternoon. This has caused some
icy spots on roadways even in areas that did not receive freezing
rain/sleet as lingering moisture on roadways freezes. The winter
weather warnings/advisories have been cancelled but travel impacts
will remain. Tonight, strong cold air advection will continue under
mostly cloudy skies, with low temperatures being purely advection
driven. While temperatures and wind chills have trended up slightly
for tonight into tomorrow, they remain dangerously low with
temperatures in the teens to lower 20s expected (hard freeze
conditions) and wind chills in the single digits and teens. Continue
to take all cold weather precautions. Icy patches will remain a
concern on roadways as all remaining moisture re-freezes. Tonight
another shortwave moves out of West Texas, but the associated mid-
level moisture looks to remain north of the forecast area. Can`t
rule out a few flurries this afternoon and tonight given the cold
air mass and the thin layer of moisture in the cloud deck around -
10C but not enough for any impacts.

Chilly northerly winds continue on Monday. Models have trended a bit
warmer which will allow for more of the area to reach above freezing
given less widespread ice accumulations than expected, but temps
will still mainly remain below freezing up in the Brazos Valley and
northern Piney Woods where more accumulation occurred. Monday night
the center of an almost 1040 mb surface high moves directly
overhead, resulting in ideal radiational cooling conditions with
calm winds. We are still looking at lows in the teens to lower 20s
again Monday night, and a few cooler spots up in the Piney Woods
will probably reach the single digits. An Extreme Cold Warning
remains in effect until Tuesday. See the climate section for
record low temperature information.

Dry conditions and below normal temperatures are expected through
Thursday with persistent troughing over the central and eastern
CONUS. Another hard freeze is expected across the Piney Woods and
Brazos Valley Thursday night. A southern stream shortwave approaches
the area by Friday and may result in an area of low pressure
developing in the northwest Gulf along a frontal boundary. 20-50%
rain chances are currently forecast Friday, highest near the Gulf
Coast. Another Arctic air mass moves in behind this system for the
weekend with concerns for additional hard freezes and low wind
chills. The Probabilistic WSSI from WPC currently indicates a 10-20%
chance of at least minor winter weather impacts over a broad area of
the southern CONUS. We`ll keep an eye on it, but this is still a
long way out.

JDavis

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1220 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

MVFR conditions are expected to continue throughout much of this
TAF cycle before improving towards the tail end of the forecast.
However, some sites could briefly see IFR conditions for the next
few hours. Most sites will improve to VFR as the cloud deck begins
to scatter out around 16-18z tomorrow morning. Gusty winds will
continue through this afternoon with winds relaxing to under 12
knots around 06-08z for most sites. No rain is expected within
this TAF cycle.

WFO CRP

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1220 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Strong north to northwest winds and elevated seas are expected
through Monday. A few showers are possible well offshore tonight
and tomorrow. Temperatures will remain very cold through Monday
night, with freezing temperatures expected at the coast during the
overnight and morning hours. Low water conditions are also
forecast for Galveston Bay Monday and Tuesday mornings. Winds and
seas become much lighter by the middle of the week. However,
another storm system could bring hazardous winds and seas the
region by next weekend.

JDavis

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1220 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Record low temperatures:

January 26:
Houston Intercontinental (IAH): 23 (1943)
Houston Hobby (HOU): 24(1940)
Galveston (GLS): 25 (1940)
Palacios (PSX): 30 (1961)

January 27:
Houston Intercontinental (IAH): 19 (1897)
Houston Hobby (HOU): 18 (1940)
Galveston (GLS): 21 (1897)
Palacios (PSX): 29 (1976)


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  19  33  14  42 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  23  39  21  46 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  29  42  34  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for TXZ163-164-
     176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
     436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ330-335.

     Low Water Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM CST Tuesday for
     GMZ335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ350-355-370-
     375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDavis
AVIATION...WFO CRP
MARINE...JDavis

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion