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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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541
FXUS64 KHGX 111033
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
533 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and humid Saturday with scattered showers/storms expected.

- Better chance of showers and storms on Sunday. A few storms may
  produce damaging wind gusts, hail, and localized flooding. Best
  chance of heavy thunderstorms is in our western and northern
  counties.

- Strong rip currents expected along Gulf-facing beaches through
  the weekend.

- Increasingly summer-like weather by the second half of next
  week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Deep LL onshore flow is pushing a warm, moisture rich air mass
into our region from the Gulf. We have this moisture to thank (at
least in part) for Friday`s showers and thunderstorms. SPC
mesoanalysis shows a Gulf surge of 1.5 to 1.7 inch PWAT values,
meaning that Saturday`s atmosphere will be just as moisture rich
as Friday`s. However, the southeast Texas atmosphere should
experience less synoptic ascent on Saturday, suggesting less
widespread shower / thunderstorm activity. Even so, we still
expect scattered activity Saturday morning and afternoon,
especially across our western zones where the highest PWAT values
are expected. It is important to remember that even isolated
showers/storms can result in locally heavy rainfall when the
atmosphere is rich in PWAT. As for temperatures, expect highs once
again the low 80s for most locations.

Synoptic forcing will be more robust on Sunday due to the
approach of a ML shortwave from Mexico. This should result in
higher rain and thunderstorm chances across our region,
particularly in our northern and western counties. HREF members
are more unstable on Sunday, showing a decent shot of 1000+ j/kg
CAPE for most of the CWA, with some potential for over 2000 j/kg
in our northwestern zones. We also expect an enhanced LL jet as
the shortwave induced LL pressure falls over central and west
Texas. The jet will be strongest over central and north Texas,
with peak shear occurring in the morning. This technically places
the best shear environment to our north and west, and before peak
daytime heating / instability. But even so, I think there will be
some shear to work with Sunday afternoon. The Storm Prediction
Center has placed our western counties in a Level 1 of 5 threat of
severe thunderstorms on Sunday. Damaging wind gusts and hail are
the primary concerns. In addition, locally heavy rainfall could
result in localized flooding. The Weather Prediction Center has
placed our northern zones in a Level 1 of 4 risk of excessive
rainfall. The northwesternmost corner of our CWA (near College
Station) is under a Level 2 of 4 risk.

As we head into next week, the pattern is expected to be dominated
by a strong mid/upper ridge over the Gulf, and a sfc high near SE
CONUS. This pattern supports a humid and increasingly warm
weather regime as the week progresses. Most inland areas are
expected to be in the mid/upper 80s by Wednesday. By the end of
the week, many spots could be approaching 90. Considering
afternoon dew points are expected to be near 70 degrees across
the region, the late week air mass may feel more summer-like than
spring-like. Tis a reminder that summer approaches.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 520 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

MVFR-IFR CIGs should slowly scatter & lift through the late
morning as light showers develop across the region. Models show
different levels of coverage/frequency in these showers, thus have
opted for VCSH wording with prob30s/tempos for -SHRA. VFR
conditions should mostly return in the afternoon, though it is
possible that some brief MVFR CIGs will develop from passing
showers. Thunderstorm potential is overall low for this
afternoon, with the best chances for thunder generally around
KCLL. Showers should taper off in the evening with another round
of MVFR-IFR CIGs developing overnight into Sunday morning.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

An enhance east to southeast 15-20 knot (occasionally higher) wind
fetch will continue across the northern Gulf through at least the
middle of next week. This will result in periods of enhanced waves
and swell, along with elevated water levels during high tide.
Water levels are forecast to peak near 3.0 feet above Mean Lower
Low Water (MLLW) over the next few days, which may inundate the
lowest most vulnerable coastal spots. But for now, our forecast
keeps water levels below Coastal Flood Advisory thresholds.
Afternoon winds could gust over 25 knots, especially in upper
bays. Seas are forecast to average in the 4-6 foot range over the
Gulf. But we cannot rule out occasionally higher seas, especially
more than 20 NM offshore. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected Saturday and Sunday. We are monitoring
a risk of a few heavier thunderstorms on Sunday. As of now, the
highest risk of heavy thunderstorms is well north of the coast.
But something worth monitoring.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  81  68  79  69 /  50  10  80  50
Houston (IAH)  82  70  81  71 /  50  10  50  20
Galveston (GLS)  77  72  78  72 /  40  10  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Sunday evening for
     GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion