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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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558
FXUS64 KHGX 142320
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scatter to Widespread showers/storms expected through Thursday.
  Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall through
  Wednesday. Ponding on roadways and street flooding will be
  possible.

- Rain chances will decrease as we near the end of the work week.

- Hot weather returns this weekend into early next week with highs
  in the 90s and heat indicies in the lower 100s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Numerous to widespread chances of showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue through early this evening as a
boundary lingers over Southeast TX. With local PWs still ranging
around 2.0 inches, some showers could produce locally heavy
rainfall with rain rate of 2-3 inches per hour at times. The
potential for minor flooding will decrease tonight as rain chances
decrease, but expect some ponding of water to persists overnight
over locations that had good amounts of rainfall today. One good
thing about all the rain and increased cloud coverage is that the
highs are expected to peak in the lower to mid 80s for many
locations today. It will remain rather warm and muggy though for
tonight, with lows expected to range in the lower to mid 70s for
much of the inland areas. Isolated showers are possible during the
overnight hours.

For Wednesday, we will once again see a few rounds of showers and
thunderstorms throughout the day. Coverage should be less than
today`s but given that soils are pretty saturated from all the
rainfall received in the previous days, it wont take much for
minor flooding issues to occur in areas of heavy rainfall. WPC has
a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall for much of
Southeast Texas for Wednesday. Make sure to have multiple ways of
receiving weather updates and warnings and check road conditions
before departing to your destination. Never cross flooded areas
and heed all road closures. Temperatures will be slightly warmer
on Wednesday with highs peaking in the mid to upper 80s. Similar
conditions are expected on Thursday, with the higher rain chances
focused mainly over areas west of I-45 (in particular, over the
Brazos Valley region).

Conditions are expected to be drier on Friday and continue into
early next week as surface high pressure moves over the region. We
will also have the typical summer temperatures return by this
weekend with highs ranging in the lower to mid 90s by Friday or
Saturday along with heat indices in the lower 100s.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

SHRA has mostly come to an end across the region, but some
lingering light rain will be possible over the next few hours.
MVFR ceilings may develop around the northern terminals (CXO
northward) late tonight into Wednesday morning. The next round of
rain is expected to push in from the west early Wednesday morning
and will gradually expand in coverage throughout the morning.
Embedded TS development is expected late in the morning into the
afternoon hours...the highest confidence windows have been added
in PROB30s/TEMPOs. Intermittent periods of MVFR/IFR conditions and
gusty winds are possible in and near the strongest storms. SH/TS
activity will come to an end in the late afternoon hours
(generally after 22Z). Winds will mostly be southeasterly around
or less than 10 kt outside of any storms. MVFR ceilings may build
in near the northern terminals again late Wednesday.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas of 2-4 feet
will continue into early next week. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms will continue through Thursday with drier conditions
expected Friday into early next week. Winds and seas may be
higher in and near stronger storms.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  72  85  72  88 /  20  60  20  50
Houston (IAH)  74  86  75  91 /  20  60  10  30
Galveston (GLS)  82  89  84  90 /  20  50   0  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cotto
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion