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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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209
FXUS64 KHGX 271135
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Band of showers and storms will continue to move across the
  region in the next several hours and off to the east by late
  this morning. Some storms could be locally strong and also
  produce heavy downpours and strong wind gusts.

- Mariners should check the latest weather conditions and forecast
  before beginning or continuing their transits. Hazardous
  conditions are expected late tonight into Wednesday morning.

- Less active weather is anticipated for the remainder of the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

An active weather morning is underway as we monitor a slow-moving
line of strong to severe thunderstorms currently just along and
east of the I-35 corridor. This initial complex is expected to
push through over the next several hours. In addition, attention
is turning to a second MCS initiating over north-central Mexico.
Hi-res model guidance remains divided on this second feature; a
few solutions bring the MCS across Southeast Texas, just behind
the main line, while other guidance breaks the disturbance down
before it arrives. Overall, the window for these convective
complexes will persist through the mid/late morning hours.

Forecast soundings indicate a slight decrease in instability and
bulk shear as the primary line advances through Southeast TX.
While the risk of widespread severe thunderstorms is low, a few
severe wind gusts and brief spin-ups remain possible,
particularly along any bowing segments. In addition to the
convective wind threat, moderate to heavy rain is expected. As the
line progresses eastward, it will tap into an environment
characterized by increasing theta e and upper lvl diffluence.
Therefore, the potential for cell training remains a possibility.
Given well saturated grounds from recent rainfall, any additional
precip will quickly translate into efficient runoff. Rainfall
totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected, though localized pockets of
up to 5 inches will be possible. Please, see the Hydrology section
below for more details on rivers. PoPs will diminish by late
morning, though remnant surface boundaries will likely serve as
the primary focus for isolated, diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms later this afternoon.

Following the departure of today`s system, the region looks to
get a break from active MCS patterns. A subtle mid to upper lvl
ridge will begin building over the area through the weekend. While
this ridge won`t be strong enough to completely suppress
convection, any development should remain isolated to scattered
and largely driven by daytime heating and any sfc boundaries (e.g.
sea breezes). Expect near seasonal high temperatures to close out
the workweek and persist into early next week, with afternoon
readings in the upper 80s to low 90s.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

MVFR CIGs ongoing at CLL this morning and CXO experiencing LIFR
CIGs. All other sites at VFR. Periods of MVFR CIGs will continue
through the morning hours. Additionally, periods of showers are
expected to continue through the morning through early afternoon
hours. Dry conditions will continue during the rest of the
afternoon through the end of the period. Winds will be out of the
SE and light.

Bailey

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

A complex of thunderstorms, currently located to our west, will move
across the bays and Gulf waters in the next few hours. The estimated
time of arrival of storms should be for the Matagorda Bay area
between 1-3am, Galveston Bay 3am-6am, and the Gulf waters 3am-11am.
The primary risk from these storms will be abrupt wind shifts and
gusts to 30-50kt, heavy rain, and lightning. Take this into
consideration before beginning or continuing your transits. Any
showers and storms that develop in the afternoon should remain more
isolated to scattered in nature. Beyond Thursday, light onshore
winds and low seas will prevail, with a daily risk of isolated
showers and thunderstorms.

JM/47

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 116 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Most streamflows in southeast Texas are at, above, or much above
normal thanks to recent rainfall, which means any rainfall will
likely become straight runoff. That being said, the current forecast
(1-2 inches) does not lead us to believe there will be widespread
river flooding with this next system, we will need to monitor rises
on area rivers, bayous and creeks especially where the heaviest rain
(3-5 inches) falls. The latest run with probabilistic QPF shows
rises to action stage across most of the river basins in southeast
Texas over the next 72 hours; however, a few spots along flashier
tributaries show minor flooding is possible. Remember that you can
monitor updated river forecasts via the NWS NWPS webpage
(https://water.noaa.gov/).  KLG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  81  70  85  72 /  40  20  20  10
Houston (IAH)  82  71  87  74 /  70  30  30  10
Galveston (GLS)  84  76  85  78 /  80  40  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion