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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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551
FXUS64 KHGX 241045
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
545 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly across
  our southwestern counties.

- Hot temperatures continue through the weekend.

- Rain and storm chances increase next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1113 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

A weak/shallow quasi-stationary boundary will attempt to slowly sag
south into our region overnight into late today. A few showers will
be possible ahead of and along of the boundary through around
sunrise. This boundary may stall again over the region today and
serve as a focus for an additional round of isolated showers and
storms, mainly in the afternoon with peak daytime heating and the
seabreeze. Have included slight chances of rain/storms (15-20%),
mainly for our southwestern counties. With below average PWATs
filtering in behind the front, Friday is shaping up drier and warm
as the boundary finally moves farther south or washes out. The good
news is that with drier air filtering in, most areas will see peak
heat indices below 100.

The mid to upper lvl ridge flattens this weekend, while a trough
expands eastward across the West CONUS, bringing a few disturbances
ahead of the it. Models continue to show a gradual increase in
moisture Sunday into the upcoming week. Therefore, with passing
shortwaves aloft and increased moisture, diurnally driven showers
and storms will be possible. Highs through the weekend will
generally be in the low to mid 90s, with the warmest readings for
areas west of I-45.

We`ll continue to monitor the what looks to be the main rain maker
through this forecast cycle. The aforementioned trough is progged to
push a cold front across the Plains Wednesday into Thursday. It is
still is too far out for finer details as models still differ in
phase/strength as the trough moves across the Plains. However,
guidance keeps suggesting an uptick in moisture with PWs at/near the
max percentile of climatology. With increased cloud cover and
precipitation chances, near normal temperatures are expected by
midweek.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 544 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Winds will strengthen and become ENE later this morning while a weak
boundary moves through SE Texas. Rain chances are too low to include
with the current TAF, though an isolated shower/storm or two could
develop near the coast today. Winds will become light and variable
tonight.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1113 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Light to moderate northeast winds and 1-3 ft seas will prevail today
as a weak frontal boundary moves across the region from the
northeast. A few showers or storms will be possible, mainly early in
the morning and in the afternoon as the front continues to move
south. Caution flag conditions will be possible through at least
early this afternoon. Light east winds will gradually transition to
the SE by Friday and will persist into midweek. A few showers/storms
are expected through the weekend; however, the best rain and storm
chances are forecast to arrive next week.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  98  72  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  96  74  93  74 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  91  81  89  82 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...03
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion