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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

058
FXUS64 KHGX 032323
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
623 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerously hot conditions through 4th of July weekend, with
  heat index values approaching advisory criteria.

- Widespread heat indicies of 105-107F (41-42C) with locally
  higher values over 108F (43C +) are likely this weekend.

- Isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms today. Drier
  over the weekend. Chance of isolated to scattered sea breeze
  showers/storms increases early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

The weather pattern over SE Texas continues to be dominated by a
large mid/upper ridge that is centered over eastern CONUS. The
ridge has expanded somewhat, with the atmosphere over SE Texas
becoming drier and hotter than yesterday. That being said, the
ridge has not been suppressive enough to prevent the development
of isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms,
particularly over our coastal zones. Temperatures today will be
well into the 90s (easily 34-37 celsius) with peak heat index
values averaging around 105F (41C). The pattern looks similar this
weekend, but with slightly stronger ridging and a somewhat drier
atmospheric profile. This may allow afternoon temperatures to warm
a degree or two or three higher than today. However, the drier
profile may also allow for lower dew points to mix to the surface,
resulting in similar heat indicies as today. Though our current
forecast keeps heat index values below Heat Advisory criteria, it
is highly likely that there will be locally higher heat indicies.
This is especially true within Houston`s urban heat island, where
peak indicies could easily surpass 108F (43C +) in hot spots
today through the weekend. It is important to emphasize that even
"normal" SE Texas summer temperatures are dangerous, especially
when spending extended times outdoors. Temperatures this weekend
will skew a little hotter than normal.

A mid/upper trough over the Great Lakes / Midwest should extend
its axis sufficiently southward to result in a weakness in the
aforementioned ridge across the Mississippi River Valley and into
SE Texas. We don`t expect much relief from the heat as a result of
this weakness. Perhaps we can nudge temperatures down slightly.
But the less suppressive environment may allow for more sea breeze
shower/thunderstorm activity by Monday or Tuesday. However,
ridging may attempt to build back over the area later in the week.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Chances for shower/storm activity diminishes this evening as
outflows from earlier storms have stabilized the atmosphere. VFR
conditions will prevail through TAF period with the low
probabilities of VIS concerns for most terminals between the coast
and KCXO from 10-13Z. Winds will then become mostly S/SSW`ly near
5-7 kt before switching to mostly S`ly winds at 7-9 kts with the
seabreeze moving through from 17-20Z. Hi-res model wants to keep
most of any seabreeze convection closer to the coastal areas
between KLVJ and KGLS, but confidence is low enough to add any
TEMPO groups to KHOU, but this will be something that will be
carefully monitored with the overnight forecast trends and radar
Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Light onshore flow will continue over the next several days. Gulf
seas are expected to average 1 to 3 feet. Isolated coastal and
Gulf showers will be possible each morning, with a chance of
isolated thunderstorms along the sea breeze in the afternoon.
By the middle to later part of next week, a gradually steepening
gradient may allow for an increase in south to southeast winds,
along with a corresponding increase in the seas. For now, the
forecast shows onshore winds increasing to 10-15 knots by
Tuesday/Wednesday, before increasing further to the 15-20 knot
range by Thursday. Seas may increase to 3-4 feet by week`s end.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  96  77  95 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  79  97  79  96 /   0  10   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  83  90  83  90 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Enriquez
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion