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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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531
FXUS64 KHGX 190642
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1242 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Negative tide levels are are expected to persist on Matagorda
  and Galveston bays, making navigation - especially in the upper
  portions of the bays - more difficult through the early part of
  this week.

- Confidence is now quite high in the potential for rainfall
  across Southeast Texas, but particularly at the coast, mid-week,
  with a focus on Wednesday. Average rainfall ranges from an inch
  or more at the coast, to 0.25-0.5 inches well inland.

- Expectations around a more significant cold front next weekend
  are beginning to take shape. Confidence is growing sharply in
  the potential for a strong push of cold air into the area. There
  is less confidence in specific details beyond that, and it will
  be wise to monitor the forecast through the week as we analyze
  potential impacts to Southeast Texas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

For now, we continue our see-saw around seasonal averages across
Southeast Texas. Today had fair weather, while temperatures were
a little on the cool side of average. Light onshore flow has
returned, and with a mostly sunny sky continuing, tomorrow looks
to make its way a little on the warm side of average (with the
exception of perhaps Crockett and other areas north of Lake
Livingston, more on that in just a tick).

While most of our area will be enjoying a seasonably mild day
Monday, our next cold front will be making its way towards the
area. For most of us, it will come too late to chop down
temperatures in the afternoon...and if anything may boost them
slightly through southwest flow ahead of the front. But the far,
northernmost portions of our area may only get to around average
for late January before the front moves through. And when it comes
to direct impacts from this weak front, that`s really about all
there is to say about it.

No, the real impact from this front comes after it`s made its way
through the area, stalled out, and its remnants become a coastal
trough that makes its way back northward into mid-week. This will
keep winds easterly to southeasterly, pumping in a modestly
warmer, and decidedly more humid airmass into Southeast Texas.
Eventually, a shortwave trough aloft will make its way across the
region, creating a focus for rainfall development on the coastal
trough. Rain chances should begin to emerge as early as Tuesday
evening, with potential for lingering showers as late as Thursday.
However, Wednesday looks to be the prime time for rainfall
development at this time.

Of course, with an event built by a shortwave trough and a fairly
subtle shortwave trough, there are going to be a lot of fine
details driven by timing and placement that we just can`t
skillfully forecast this far out...and sometimes not until we`re
heading into the event. But from this vantage, rain chances look
high on Wednesday across Southeast Texas, but especially so
towards the coast, closer to the better moisture pool and the
surface focus for convection. Similarly, rainfall totals in
general should be higher over the coast and nearshore Gulf waters.

That we`re managing much rain at all is a little bit impressive
given that precipitable water values across the area are below the
10th percentile. Yet, both the NAEFS and Euro ensembles bring
PWATs to the 90th percentile near the coast by Wednesday
afternoon. Though, in fairness, this time of year that`s roughly
exceeding 1.25 inches. Not an extreme amount on our absolute
scale, but quite high for late January. As such, I`d expect some
good rain, especially near the coast, but nothing overly
concerning at the moment. Most flooding concerns should be limited
to localized spots should we manage to get a good convective
hotspot. The Euro ensemble`s Extreme Forecast Index does rise
above 0.5 along the surface trough Wednesday right along our
coast, so there`s at least some suggestive waggling of eyebrows
towards locally heavy rain, even if not terribly compelling. The
current forecast paints an average around or above an inch along
the coast, then gradually decreasing inland until you get to the
0.25-0.5 inch rage as an average at such locations as Caldwell,
College Station, Madisonville, and Crockett. This rough pattern
should hold, the main question would be how much it slides farther
inland or towards the Gulf, changing where locations land on the
gradient.

After that coastal trough makes its way off, things chill out for
a little bit, as we head back to a warming trend and decidedly
above average temperatures for most of the area Thursday and
Friday. And then...then we get to the weekend.

Hoo boy, I could write more than the rest of this AFD combined on
the weekend if I really wanted to. But...for a Day 5+ forecast, it
is likely not wise to get too deep into it. But let`s wade in the
shallow end for a bit, get used to the water temperature before we
really dive deep in the days to come. The thing that stands out at
me the most is how quickly the whole suite of model guidance has
come into agreement on a very strong arctic cold front pushing
into the US, and through our area this weekend. At this range,
usually there is some amount of fuzziness even in broad details,
but these broad details are practically unanimous. Pick pretty
much any deterministic model, ensemble set, whatever - this gon`
be a strong front! In addition, you can look at the progs for just
about any of the more transient teleconnections you want (MJO,
NAO, Arctic Oscillation, pick your favorite!) and all seem to
support a surge of cold air deep into North America. One other
nice thing that models seem extremely in sync on - that the
coldest surge of arctic air will be hemmed farther north and more
to the east, focused more on my homeland, the Great Lakes.
But...even a glancing blow from a big arctic surge can be
powerful.

Even as we start to get beyond the broad strokes, model consensus
is holding up better than I might expect for this time frame. I
can say with about as high of confidence as I can that this will
be a strong front. And as the shift partner and I have been
chewing things over (and he is a teleconnection/beyond-our-
forecast-period guru), we`re reasonably confident this will make a
push for being one of, if not the, coldest airmass of this winter.
I`ve found this collection of evidence to be strong enough that
I`m willing to include mentions of a slight chance of freezing
rain north of the Houston metro on Saturday and Sunday nights.
Just the concept of me being so comfortable putting even something
as little as "slight chance" for wintry precip in the forecast at
Days 6-7 surprises me a little.

And here is where we really start to get into more speculation
than strong evidence, and where I would prefer to stop, because
speculation is not what we do here. So, for right now, I really
like this three-point framework my shift partner summed our
conversation up with:
- We are *highly confident* that a strong cold front moves
  through the area this weekend.
- It is *plausible* that this will be one of the coldest
  airmasses of the winter.
- It is *possible* that we see frozen precipitation somewhere in
  our portion of Southeast Texas. But there is too little
  confidence to say anything more detailed at this time.


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 503 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

VFR vis/cigs to prevail through the TAF periods. Winds will be
light and variable tonight through tomorrow morning. By tomorrow
afternoon, SE 5-10 kt winds are expected. There could be brief
gusts over 15 knots due to a slightly enhanced bay / sea breeze
later in the afternoon (after 20:00 UTC).

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1242 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

The Low Water Advisory now continues through Monday`s low tide
cycle on both bays, and has already been extended through
Tuesday`s low tide cycle for Galveston Bay. On both bays, the most
severe conditions are expected to be on the upper portion of the
bay. Despite the return of onshore winds, water levels continue
to lag below astronomical tides, which are already very near the
low water advisory threshold. Eventually, more persistent onshore
mid-week should bring enough improvement that advisories may no
longer be necessary. However, less severe negative tides can be
expected to linger deep into the week.

Along with the onshore flow becoming more established in the
middle of the week, expect rougher marine conditions as well as
widespread rainfall as a coastal trough moves through. Small craft
will likely need to exercise caution during this period. Finally,
a much more significant cold front is anticipated next weekend. It
will be necessary to monitor the forecast through the week as we
build more confidence in the specifics of timing and impacts to
area waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  33  65  39  61 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  35  66  43  63 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  46  62  53  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ330.

     Low Water Advisory until 10 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ335.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Luchs

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion