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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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352
FXUS64 KHGX 151816
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
116 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The potential for life-threatening flooding is increasing,
  upwards of 6 inches of rain has fallen and an additional 4-7" is
  possible. Rainfall rates have exceeded 2-5" per hour in some
  locations and this trend is likely to continue.

- Trough/Low could meander into the northwest Gulf late Tuesday. 50%
  chance of tropical development. Moderate to strong winds could
  develop over the coastal waters. Cannot rule out gusts possibly
  to Gale.

- Moderate to high risk of rip currents each day. Elevated tides
  may lead to minor coastal flooding, especially on
  Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A rather dangerous set up is taking shape over the area, as a
frontal boundary drifts southward and stalls. South of the
boundary, a steady stream of moisture has sent PW values above the
climatological max for this time of year. Combined with a weak low
level jet, enough forcing is in place for areas of showers and
thunderstorms to continue through the afternoon. Unfortunately,
the heavier rain is falling across areas generally along and north
of the I-10 corridor, and this trend should continue for the next
few hours. The initial jet will shift eastward through the day,
and rainfall rates may lessen. That said, we`ve seen some report
of 3"+ of rain earlier so far and any additional rainfall may
cause more concerns heading into the afternoon.

The pattern remains active headed into Tuesday, as cyclogenesis
occurs over southern TX/northern Mexico. Guidance remains in
somewhat fair agreement on timing and placement, with some slight
differences among global models. Given the proximity to the Gulf,
and the potential for the low to move over water and develop
tropical characteristics, NHC maintains a 40-50% chance for
tropical development. Regardless if it moves and/or stays over
water long enough, a tropical airmass will remain in place with
the above normal PWs increasing the threat for very heavy
rainfall. As the low tracks to the northeast late Tuesday night,
the chance for heavy rainfall will increase once again, with an
additional 4 to 6 inches of rain likely through Thursday. Of
course, the heavier rain will occur on the eastern/right side of
the low and uncertainty remains high on where that will eventually
move. That said, confidence is high enough that the Flood Watch
has been extended through Wednesday, with the increasing potential
for life-threatening flooding. Further refinements to the
storm total rainfall forecast is expected and some areas may
exceed the forecast values if training of storms occurs.

In addition to the flash flood threat, winds will also increase as
the low moves along the coast. Again, where the highest winds
occur will depend on the eventual track of the low. Regardless of
tropical development, winds will increase Tuesday into Wednesday,
with widespread gust up to 30 mph and some gales over the waters.
Additionally, the prolonged southerly flow will create some
coastal flooding concerns, with rises occuring Wednesday into
Thursday. It can`t be emphasized enough that this scenario is
likely, regardless on if tropical development occurs.

The low will move well northeast of the area by Friday, with
ridging building back into the region. This will bring a return to
hot and humid conditions and heat indices will climb into the
triple digits over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Areas of moderate to heavy SHRA/TSRA will continue to impact the
Houston Metro this afternoon. Heavy rainfall, low vis/cigs, and
frequent lightning are the primary concerns with TSRA. We cannot
rule out brief 25-30 knot gusts in the heaviest cells, especially
closer to the coast. SHRA/TSRA activity should decrease in
coverage and severity late afternoon into the evening. SHRA may
linger this evening near the coast. Overnight and into the
morning, SHRA/TSRA activity is expected to lift back northward
from the Gulf and into SE Texas. Flight conditions are generally
expected to remain IFR-MVFR. But periods of VFR are possible,
especially near the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Moderate to occasionally strong onshore winds and seas of 3 to 6
feet are expected today, with onshore flow increasing on Tuesday
and Wednesday. A passing disturbance along the Texas coast may
bring moderate to strong onshore winds and higher seas late
Tuesday night through early Friday morning, though there remains
some uncertainties on the timing of the higher winds and seas.
Gusts to gale cannot be ruled out. A moderate to high risk of rip
currents is anticipated almost daily through the upcoming week
with slightly elevated high tides.

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A trough of low pressure currently over northeastern Mexico is
expected to drift north-northeastward over the next few days. Late
Tuesday night into mid week, this feature may move into the
northwestern Gulf near the Texas Coastal Bend. Currently this low is
not expected to develop into a Tropical Cyclone, with formation
chances from NHC at 50% within the next seven days. Though
regardless of tropical development, heavy rainfall is likely and
dangerous marine conditions are possible. Rainfall rates are
expected to be around 2-4"/hr, with 5"/hr possible near the coast.
Moderate to strong winds could develop across the waters and bays
late Tuesday night through Thursday. Gusts to gale are possible.
Seas may reach 7 to 10 ft, possibly up to 14 ft.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  80  73  82  74 /  90  70  60  10
Houston (IAH)  84  75  81  75 /  80  80  90  50
Galveston (GLS)  88  80  85  81 /  40  70  90  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Tuesday morning for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...JTC

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion