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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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225
FXUS64 KHGX 261820
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
120 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warm conditions remain through at least Friday.

- A weak/dry cool front will move through the region Friday night early
  Saturday. While it won`t rain, it will bring lower humidity and
  temperatures in the 70s to low 80s Saturday.

- The lower humidity will be short-lived; an uptick in moisture
  and a return to above-normal temperatures are expected heading
  into early next week. Maybe some slight rain chances during the
  second part of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

The forecast remains on track. The mid to upper lvl ridge
centered over the southwest CONUS/southern Rockies continues to
influence our region, with dry and unseasonably warm conditions.

As the pressure gradient tightens this afternoon, expect breezy
southerly winds to persist until sunset. Tonight will remain quiet,
though a combination of light winds and low level moisture will
once again favor the development of patchy fog and low clouds from
late tonight through mid/late Friday morning.

By Friday, the ridge will continue to expand eastward across
southeast TX while a surface cool front moves across the central
Plains/CONUS. Ahead of this front, expect highs in the upper 80s to
near 90s. The front is forecast to cross the region during the
Friday evening to overnight timeframe. The boundary will be moisture-
starved due to subsidence from the ridge aloft. Therefore, a dry
passage is expected. The primary benefit of this FROPA will be the
arrival of a drier airmass. Post-frontal surface dewpoints on
Saturday are expected to range from the upper 30s (in the northern
counties) to the upper 50s (coastal areas). By Sunday, the surface
high will shift east, and onshore flow will resume, once again
opening the door for a warm and moist Gulf airmass to return.

Ridging aloft is expected to weaken by early next week. This will
lead to less subsidence aloft and allow for the arrival of various
vorticity maxima, increasing large-scale lifting across the region.
While significant rainfall is not yet in the cards, we will see the
introduction of low-end rain chances starting after Tuesday. Looking
further ahead, toward the end of next week, a strong mid lvl trough
is expected to move across the Pacific Northwest while downstream
lee cyclogenesis develops over the Rockies, likely enhancing
moisture transport and lift. This pattern will possibly result in
increasing rain chances for our region heading into the Easter
weekend. As it is too far out in the forecast period, details will
change in future forecast updates as the main trough evolves over
the CONUS.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Low VSBYs and CIGs have resulted in LIFR conditions for LBX. An
area of low VSBYs persists just north and west of the Houston
Metro. While IAH remains unimpacted, satellite shows fog
slowly spreading south and east towards the terminal. May have
a couple of hours of low VSBYs before daytime heating takes place.
VFR conditions will return by the afternoon. Winds will be light
out of the south this morning; however, by afternoon hours expect
gusts up to 25 kts due to a tightening pressure gradient. Another
round of MVFR to LIFR conditions expected overnight tonight into
Friday morning due to fog and low CIGs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Benign marine conditions continue with light to occasionally
moderate south to southeast winds and low seas. A dry cold front
will enter the coastal waters late Friday night into early Saturday
morning, bringing a wind shift to the northeast by Saturday. Winds
will be near or at advisory levels with possible gusts up to 25
knots in the morning hours. Light SSE winds return by Sunday,
persisting through the upcoming week. A pattern change is expected
next week with the introduction of some low-end rain chances after
Tuesday. Highest rain chances are possible towards the end of the
upcoming week.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  63  87  59  75 /   0   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)  65  88  62  78 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  69  78  64  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion