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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

715
FXUS64 KHGX 231034
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
534 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gradual warming trend with temperatures reaching the upper 80s
  by the end of the work week.

- Isolated rain chances now through the weekend. Cannot rule out
  some stronger or severe storms on these days either. `

- Front stalls out before reaching SE Texas around Monday with
  daily rain chances through mid next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 534 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

The Storm Prediction Center has updated their Day 2 (Friday) Outlook
and it now outlines areas generally along and north of I-10 in a
marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather on Friday. Isolated
to scattered showers/storms are expected to develop during the
afternoon hours, and a few storms could become strong to severe
through Friday evening. This potential is a bit conditional as
storms will likely struggle to maintain an updraft, but if they were
to do so then they could become strong to severe. The primary
threats are damaging wind gusts and hail in any storm that is able
to sustain an updraft given the amount of instability that will
be in place. Be sure to remain weather aware and stay up to date
on the forecast as we head towards Friday.

Batiste

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Today should generally see lower coverage in showers/storms due to
rising heights within this semi-zonal flow pattern aloft. Better
instability and shear may be present, but the distinct lack of
forcing should keep convective activity isolated in nature. Still,
severe storms cannot be completely ruled out for this afternoon,
especially with how storms overperformed on Wednesday. Worth keeping
an eye on the radar in case any stronger storms manage to pull
together. Otherwise, anticipate warming conditions with highs in the
mid/lower 80 and lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

Still monitoring a period of potentially active weather from Friday
over the weekend. SE Texas will be under mostly zonal flow with
ample shear and instability in place across the region. For SE Texas
specifically, models show SFC CAPE from around 1700-3000 J/KG with
500mb shear around 30-45 knots. Several troughs/disturbances are
expected to pass to the north of our area around this time, thus
much of the best lift and forcing will keep north of our area as
well. SPC still maintains a Slight (level 2/5) Risk of severe
weather up against our northern boarder on Friday, Saturday, and
Sunday. While it`s not directly in our CWA for all of these days,
any southerly shift in those shortwaves/impulses may result in this
risk shifting into our area. Given the troublesome nature of these
northwest flow patterns, the severe risk is still in play for SE
Texas on these days too.

On Monday, a much more robust shortwave trough is anticipated to
fill north across the Plains. This feature will send a cold front
towards SE Texas, though ultimately it doesn`t appear as though
it`ll get here, slowing/stalling around the Brazos Valley/Piney
Woods area per long range ensemble guidance. A subtropical mid-level
high then builds in from the south on Tuesday, allowing low rain
chances and warmer weather to continue.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 534 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Widespread MVFR ceilings early this morning with a few spots
intermittently dropping to IFR will give way to VFR ceilings later
this morning by 17Z. Southeasterly winds will be breezy with
sustained winds around 10-15 kt with gusts in the 20-25 kt range
through the afternoon. Isolated showers/storms will be possible
this afternoon, but mainly east of I-45. The probability of
convection is too low for mentions in any of the TAFs. Another
round of MVFR to IFR ceilings is expected to filter in from south
to north this evening and into Friday morning. Winds remain
elevated through the overnight hours, so fog potential will likely
be inhibited.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds should continue through the
next several days. A long fetch of these southeasterly winds may
bring increased seas at times. This with periodically higher winds
may warrant caution flags at times. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day through the weekend. Above
normal water levels near 3.0 feet MLLW are still expect at each high
tide cycle through the end of the work week.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  84  69  86  70 /   0   0  20  20
Houston (IAH)  84  71  87  73 /  20  20  20  10
Galveston (GLS)  80  74  81  74 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion