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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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088
FXUS64 KHGX 231835
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
135 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tomorrow, mainly south.

- Hot temperatures continue through the weekend.

- Rain chances increase next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

A weak boundary continues to hang out in the area, and will be here
for a couple more days, but it isn`t going to do much in the way of
noticeable changes to our weather as mid-level ridging remains in
place overhead. What we can expect is a few diurnally driven
showers/storms today with abundant moisture in place in our near
coastal counties, mainly along and south of I-10. Satellite derived
PWAT values are between 1.8 and 2" in this region, which is a bit
above normal for this time of year. The deep moisture combined with
daytime heating should be able to fire off a few convective bits
this afternoon, though so far activity has been less than previous
days. Rain chances are lower tomorrow, though an isolated shower
along wherever the boundary lies would be possible.

Mid-level ridging collapses/drifts south over the weekend with
shortwaves beginning to rotate through the area by Saturday
afternoon. Deep moisture levels are below normal Saturday, so
convection is not expected. We will see a gradual increase in
moisture Sunday into early next week which will start to bring up
our rain chances. Early in the week this will be mainly driven by
mid-level shortwave and daytime heating, but later in the week there
is some potential for a cold front moving toward the area. Models
have been hinting at this for a little while, so don`t think it`s a
random figment of the models imagination. Guidance is pretty well in
agreement of a solid trough digging down into Texas all the way
through the upper levels. It`s too early to put too much into the
front, but at least we should get some good moisture pooling for
early to mid-week to bring medium to possibly high chances for
convection, and the increased rain chances and cloud cover would
likely bring temps back to normal at least.

For the rest of this week and the weekend we`ll keep above normal
temperatures, in the mid and upper 90s. Heat index values will top
100 most days through Tuesday, but could have a brief reprieve
Friday if the drier air can filter in behind the boundary.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

VFR conditions to dominate the forecast period. Winds are light
generally out of the NE, transitioning to E/SE by this afternoon and
strengthening to between 5-10kts. We`re under high pressure which is
stifling widespread convection with this afternoon sea breeze. We
still anticipate isolated SH/TS, but confidence is low on exact
location, resulting in no PROB30s for any TAF site. Keep in mind
winds associated with any afternoon storms could gust between 15-
20kts and lower CIGs and VIS to MVFR conditions. Isolated rain
chances dissipate by 00Z Thursday and winds become negligible by
around 02-03Z. A weak front pushing into our region tonight and into
Thursday will pick winds up from the ENE Thursday morning between 5-
10kts. Coastal sites like GLS could have stronger winds between 10-
15kts. The weak front primarily brings drier conditions, limiting
Thurdsay`s rain chances.

BSM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

A few showers and storms are possible this afternoon south of a
weak boundary in the area. A weak to moderate east to northeast
flow will persist through Friday, with winds turning more
southeast over the weekend and early next week. Gulf seas are
expected to average generally 2-3 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  97  71  95 /  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  79  95  73  93 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  83  91  82  89 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PH
AVIATION...BSM
MARINE...PH

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion