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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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464
FXUS64 KHGX 092355
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
655 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop
  this afternoon. Brief heavy downpours, frequent lightning and
  gusty winds up to 35 mph are possible with the strongest storms
  through early this evening.

- Rain and storm chances continue each day. Precipitation should
  be diurnally driven...starting out offshore and near the coast
  late at night and in the mornings then transitioning inland
  during the day.

- High temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 90s inland
  and the upper 80s to lower 90s along the coast. Peak heat
  indices 102 - 108F.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and move
slowly inland this afternoon. Frequent lightning and brief heavy
downpours are the primary risks with the strongest storms or
training storms. Synoptically, an elongated ridge extends from the
southern Rockies to the southeastern CONUS, while an inverted trough
moves westward over the northwestern Gulf. Soundings and Blended
TPW Satellite show deep tropical moisture (PWs 2.0 - 2.4 inches)
remaining over the region. The combination of abundant moisture,
the vicinity of the trough, and seabreeze interaction is
responsible of producing these rain/storms over the area. Most of
this activity is diurnally-driven; therefore, it should taper off
near/after sunset.

The pattern aloft will not change much for the rest of the week and
into the weekend. Ridge aloft continues to break down/flatten as a
frontal boundary moves over northeast TX. Locally, significant
changes in the forecast are not anticipated other than daily
scattered showers and thunderstorms. This activity will develop over
the coastal waters and along the islands late overnight/early
morning, spreading farther inland throughout the day. Most of
Southeast TX will see isolated to scattered activity popping up
during the day, with the greatest chances of rain/storms remaining
along and south of I-10. As is typical with weak low-lvl vorticity
and tropical moisture, a few weak funnel clouds may be possible
mainly in the mornings.

For early next week, a mid to upper lvl ridge centered over the
southeastern CONUS will slowly expand westward into our region. This
will result in a slightly drier airmass; however, southerly warm and
humid surface flow will be enough to support isolated/scattered
diurnally driven activity (chances of rain/storms 20 to 40 percent)
each day, especially along the seabreeze.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

A few TS are still in the western portion of the CWA, and
continue to move NW. Remaining TS activity is expected to linger
for only a couple more hours, and should stop impacting any TAF
sites by about 01Z. A similar set up is expected tomorrow, with
elevated chances for SH/TS in the afternoon hours. Any cells that
do develop will have the potential for frequent lightning, reduced
VIS due to heavy rain, and wind gusts (similar to storms seen
today). Activity could start as early as ~12Z for sites near the
coast, though chances remain highest in the afternoon. SH/TS
activity for tomorrow is expected to dissipate by the early
evening.

Aside from precip, VFR conditions prevail with winds generally out
of the SE at 5-10KTS. Winds become light and VRB overnight, then
pick back up out of the SE tomorrow afternoon. There is a chance
for intermittent MVFR CIGS/VIS at the northern TAF sites early
tomorrow morning. Confidence remains low and is therefore not
included in the TAFs. Aside from any SH/TS that develop tomorrow,
VFR CIG/VIS persist thru the day.

MLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Light onshore winds and seas around 1 to 2ft will prevail this week
and into the weekend. The main marine concerns will be a daily risk
of scattered showers and thunderstorms, generally developing late
night through mid/late morning over the coastal waters, before
spreading farther inland through the day. Erratic winds, brief
downpours, and lightning are possible near any strong storms. As
we have been seeing today and over the past few days, weak,
atmospheric conditions will continue to be favorable for weak
waterspouts/funnel clouds early in the morning. If they do
develop, they are typically weak, and short-lived.conditions
develop near your area.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  75  97  75  97 /  20  20  20  20
Houston (IAH)  78  94  77  94 /  20  40  20  50
Galveston (GLS)  82  90  81  90 /  30  50  30  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...MLG
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion