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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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908
FXUS64 KHGX 031110
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
510 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today will be a last day for warmer than average high
  temperatures before the arrival of our next cold front.

- Expect scattered to numerous showers along and ahead of that
  front Tuesday afternoon and evening. Should the timing of any
  rain line up well with the warmest part of the afternoon, some
  embedded thunderstorms could also occur.

- After a brief cool down to near seasonal averages in the
  midweek, expect above normal temperatures to return by Friday,
  and carry through the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1018 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Monday was a day that started relatively chilly with even some
folks down around freezing...but by afternoon, we saw a
temperatures on the warm side of average, and even pushing over 70
degrees in some spots thanks to the return of onshore flow. To
pair with that, tonight looks quite mild, setting us up for
another warm day on Tuesday...at least until the cold front comes
in.

One interesting thing we`ll have to look at is the specific timing
of the front. If it swoops in very near peak heating, but just a
little too late to chop down temps, we will be in the situation
where temps can really race up well into the 70s for much of the
area with southwest flow and a bit of compressional heating as
well. The current timing would tend to support this outcome, so
the temperature forecast reflects it. Also...this gives us a small
zone of instability just ahead of the front, plus a bit of
mechanical forcing just ahead/along the boundary. And...while not
super impressive, perhaps a bit of a diffluent pattern in the
upper jet? That one`s much more iffy. All in all, to me it adds up
to a scenario in which we get some isolated embedded thunderstorms
in the broader development of showers.

North winds develop in the wake of the front, and while the
coldest air brought on by this system looks to stay hemmed up in
Canada, enough modestly colder air should filter in to bring us
back to to near-average temps for the Wednesday and Thursday
timeframe. But, with onshore flow returning by Thursday evening,
we`ll keep the weather train chugging right along and give us a
warming trend into the weekend. I don`t deviate much from NBM here
as it seems to have a relatively decent handle on the big picture
in this progressive, relatively low amplitude pattern. There`s
always the ironing out of its weird quirks that routinely pop up,
but not much need to make wholesale changes here. I`ve got Friday
pegged as a day pretty similar to today, with even more warmth
building in for the weekend. By Sunday, the warmest spots in the
area will be looking to reach for the 80 degree mark.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 510 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

LLJ overhead should result in some LLWS early today at KCLL where
these winds are strongest compared to that of the surface. Light
showers early this morning will grow in coverage and remain
draped over the region for much of the daytime. MVFR-IFR CIGs will
be slow to lift out as a result, thus some locations will see
high- end MVFR CIGS persist into the afternoon. Cold front is
anticipated to push through the area, entering the Brazos Valley
late this afternoon and pushing off the coast overnight. Broken
line of showers and some isolated storms could form along the
front itself, along with some MVFR CIGs. VFR conditions return as
drier air fills in behind the front.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1018 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Small craft should exercise caution through tonight and tomorrow
morning, with onshore flow reaching very near Small Craft
Advisory thresholds, along with a few gusts of 20 to 25 knots.
Indeed, a couple observations from farther offshore are right up
on the advisory threshold - and a need for a small, short advisory
may emerge overnight. Regardless, winds decrease Tuesday
afternoon and evening as a cold front approaches, with showers
likely along and ahead of the front. There may also be some patchy
fog as those winds weaken just before the front arrives.

Once the front passes, expect gusty north winds to develop for
Wednesday and Thursday. Anticipate a need for small craft
advisories with these gusty winds, particularly Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Fortunately, while confidence is quite high that
winds will reach advisory-level (approaching 100 percent
probabilities in the experimental NBM v5), confidence is
similarly high that this appears to be a relatively low-end wind
event as well, with a modestly cold airmass making its way over
cold waters. Those same probabilities that are so high for
advisory conditions are virtually nil for gale conditions.

Another thing we will need to watch for following the frontal
passage is the potential return of low water on the bays. The hope
is that recovery in this stretch of onshore winds and higher
astronomical tides will help mitigate low water conditions after
the post-frontal north winds develop. Still, at least some
negative tides are anticipated and may fall low enough to prompt
another advisory, with Wednesday evening`s low tide cycle being a
particular concern.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  71  42  64  37 /  50  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  72  47  64  40 /  60  50   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  65  51  61  46 /  40  70  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until noon CST today for
     GMZ350-355-375.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ370.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Luchs

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion