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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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139
FXUS64 KHGX 181731
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1131 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Negative tide levels are are expected to persist into early next
  week. Cannot completely rule out the need for additional low
  water headlines.

- Very dry conditions will persist this afternoon and early into
  the new week, and will be paired with increasingly dry
  vegetation. Much lighter winds will mitigate the threat for
  explosive fire growth, but fires will still be able to start
  easily in these conditions. Continue to exercise caution with
  fire and with equipment that can throw sparks. Heed all local
  fire restrictions and bans.

- Our next good chance for rainfall will come towards the middle
  of next week as our pattern of quickly successive weather
  systems continues. Highest rainfall totals slated for
  Wednesday/Thursday though flooding concerns are low for the time
  being.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1121 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Surface high pressure is moving over the area today and should push
off to the east this evening, allowing onshore flow to return
tonight. Before that occurs, we`ll still see fairly dry conditions
develop this afternoon, though thankfully winds remain light
enough to mitigate fire weather concerns to an extend. Regardless,
return flow will usher in WAA and bring gradually warming
temperatures and increasing moisture into next week. With WAA
initiating after peak heating, highs should only top out in the
50s/lower 60s this afternoon. Meanwhile, overnight temperatures
will be slightly warmer, but still cool with lows for Monday
morning anticipated to bottom out in the 30s/upper 40s inland and
lower 50s right along the coast.

On Monday an upper level trough digging through the Northern
Plains/Great Lakes is expected to send yet another cold front
towards SE Texas. Onshore flow will still be in place during the
daytime, so highs are anticipated to reach the upper 50s/60s with
some spots potentially reaching the 70 degree mark. The cold front
is set to arrive Monday night, then stall out over the Gulf waters
early on Tuesday. Onshore flow returns Tuesday afternoon/evening as
winds shift southeasterly again, allowing moisture to build into mid
week.

Wednesday, and at least partially Thursday, are slated to be the
wettest period in the forecast. PWs are anticipated to reach 1.2-
1.7" on Wednesday as a mid/upper level trough pushes east though
TX/Mexico. A LLJ begins to form, though the main axis of peak winds
will be focused around Central/NE Texas. Still, portions of our area
should see low level winds approach 20-30 knots on the northern end
of our CWA during this period. Forecast soundings depict saturated
conditions across the mid/lower levels of the atmosphere with some
instability, though low. Some timing discrepancies emerge around
this point in the forecast, where some models push the trough &
following cold front through sooner (off the coast by early
Thursday), while others have the FROPA slower/later. LREF has
rainfall totals through this period ranging from 0.25-1.00 inches
with the highest totals focused closer to the coast. The most
dominant LREF cluster places this axis of deeper QPF further inland
compared to the grand ensemble with overall the highest totals, some
approaching 1.75" offshore. This first LREF cluster is now composed
of ~33% of the ensemble`s members. GEPS composes only 40% of this
cluster now with higher contributions from the GEFS & ENS. There
also appears to be a broader trend in the LREF showing the axis of
deeper QPF shifting further north. The NBM is showing 0.20-1.5
inches of rainfall with isolated higher amounts up to 2.00 inches.
90th percentile LREF & NBM suggests that, in a reasonable worst-case
scenario, higher end amounts could reach 2.00-3.00 inches. Still,
low soil moisture and D1-D3 drought conditions will help mitigate
flooding concerns. 3hr FFG is over 3.00" across nearly all of SE
Texas (beyond the current worst-case amounts), thus flooding
concerns remain low for the moment... but should be closely
monitored over the next few days.

Guidance suggests that moisture will improve as the remnants of the
aforementioned front tries to lift north ahead of another cold front,
slated to enter the area Friday night/Saturday.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 547 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

VFR at all sites this morning. Light northerly winds will continue
this morning, becoming variable at times. Winds will begin to turn
westerly this afternoon. Skies will generally remain clear.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1121 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Low Water Advisory remains in effect for both bays through later
this evening. These water levels should improve to some degree
tonight as onshore winds return, however, mariners should still be
mindful of negative tide levels through early next week, especially
at low tide. Cannot rule out additional low water headlines for now.
Next cold front will stall out around the coast early on Tuesday
with onshore winds returning as the boundary gradually lifts north
into Wednesday. Expect more widespread rainfall on Wednesday and
Thursday as another weather system pushes through.

03

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1214 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Relatively poor RH recovery (by Southeast Texas standards, anyway)
to the 55-60 percent range tonight will set us up for another
very dry day on Sunday. For another day, look for RH to fall into
the upper teens and 20s for all but the beaches. Even there, the
most "humid" part of Southeast Texas, should still expect minimum
RH around 30 percent. Unlike yesterday, winds should be much
lighter, only rising to around 5 mph for the large majority of the
area. Winds at the coast may be slightly stronger, but still only
in the 5-10 mph range.

Despite a brief return to onshore flow for much of Monday, a weak
reinforcing front Monday night will bring winds back to
northeasterly. This will prolong the time it will take for more
humid conditions to return. Those more humid conditions, and
ultimately some solid rain chances, should finally arrive mid-
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  33  64  39  61 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  36  66  43  63 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  45  62  53  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ330-335.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion