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099
FXUS64 KHGX 031800
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
100 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rainfall has been unimpressive up to this point today, but let`s
  keep a close look around the I-10 corridor late in the day and
  evening. Some guidance shows an uptick in storm development and
  localized heavy rain there.

- Continued rain chances Sunday, followed by some drier air moving
  in early next week (moreso inland).

- After a break in the rain, we should see chances ramp back up
  across parts of the region Thur-Sat (probably coastal areas).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Somewhat benign conditions so far today inland, with most precip
offshore in association with coastal troffiness, then another area
across north Tx ahead of the diffuse H85 front. That said, we`re
seeing breaks of sunshine between those 2 areas and temps warming
close to 90F. With any further heating, we could see some
shra/tstm development initiating inland later this afternoon. HRRR
has done a reasonable job so far today, and it`s been showing the
area between the I-10 and HWY 105 corridors lighting up later
today. Guidance has also shown signals indicating the potential
for some *localized* 2-5" totals into late evening which could
bring a street flooding threat if this occurs over a more metro
location. Let`s keep an eye on things. Otherwise, some iso-sct
shra continuing overnight into Sunday, more widespread offshore.

Surface high pressure begins sinking sewd thru the Plains into
the Ohio/Tennessee/Mississippi Valleys early next week. This
should drive some drier air into the region, especially inland
parts, and push the surface front further offshore. This`ll give
most of the area lower rain chances into midweek. But, as the high
lifts back to the northeast, we`ll see the coastal trof and
associated deeper moisture become re-established closer to the
coast. A mid-level trof/low becomes established across northern
Mexico and West Texas, and disturbances rotating around it should
contribute to rain chances trending back up Thur-Sat until it
tracks to the east late next weekend. There`s not the best of
model agreement in terms of the finer details (positioning/timing/etc),
so would anticipate so forecast tweaks in the coming days.  47

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

The busy TAF cycle continues throughout the next period as well. The
chances for SHRA/TSRA, IFR CIGS, and decreased VIS respectively will
be the impacts through this cycle. Currently conditions range from
VFR-MVFR with a prevails NE breeze between 8-13kts to continue
throughout the TAF period.

Now onto flight conditions, first up, iso-sct SHRA increases in
coverage inland with brief periods of TSRA, during peak heating
hrs, this afternoon through the evening hours. The chance for
showers to linger into the morning does exist, but timing and
confidence remain low and thus excluded from this TAF cycle. Next,
as the early morning hrs arrive, a 400-800ft cloud deck (IFR) expands
south beginning around 9-10z and lasting through the afternoon.
Finally, around 13-16z, the I-10 corridor and south has the chance
for reduced MVFR-IFR visibility due to patchy BR. Current TAFs
show MVFR due to confidence levels. All flight impacts will be
monitored and amended as continuing model guidance arrives.

CMW

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Winds/seas (15-25kt & 5-7ft) have been overperforming and will
maintain the advisory flags through the evening and monitor
trends. Suspect these might need to be extended into mid morning
Sunday - or replaced with Caution flags at a minimum. Scattered
to occasionally numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
through the weekend, with locally heavier thunderstorms possible.
Moderate northeast winds will prevail along with 4 to 7 foot
seas. Winds/seas are expected to increase further early next
week as the front pushes further offshore. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  69  81  67  85 /  40  30  20  10
Houston (IAH)  73  82  72  87 /  60  30  20  20
Galveston (GLS)  77  84  77  86 /  80  70  60  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Sunday morning for
     GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ350-355-
     370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...CMW
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion