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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

124
FXUS64 KHGX 120018
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
718 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing heat risk with "feels-like" temperatures around
  97-107 degrees (36-42 Celsius) through at least this weekend.

- Rip Current Risk is likely to continue into next week.

- Isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorm chances daily,
  mostly during the afternoon hours. Chances will increase Sunday
  into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Relatively quiet weather conditions thus far today, as the showery
activity hasn`t really gotten started yet as of early this
afternoon. Expect to see some showers and maybe a thunderstorm or
two going through the afternoon and into this evening.
Southeasterly flow continues to dominate across the region as the
Bermuda high persists across the Atlantic and into the
southeastern U.S. Hot and humid temperatures also continue through
this afternoon, with overnight temperatures in the mid to upper
70s providing a low to moderate level of overnight relief. Thus,
those with limited or no relief from the heat and/or are
sensitive to the heat should take extra precautions.

Not much change to the weather pattern going into this weekend as
subtropical ridging remains overhead. Thus, a mostly persistence
forecast through tomorrow as southeasterly flow continues.
Enhanced tropical moisture from the disturbance in the Bay of
Campeche looks likely to reach the southeast TX area by Sunday as
PWAT`s rise into the 2.00-2.25" (150% of normal) range. Thus, a
relatively quick return to shower and thunderstorm activity should
be anticipated Sunday should this scenario come to fruition. Hot
and humid conditions will continue through at least Sunday, where
maximum apparent temperatures will be in the 97-107F (36-42C)
degree range. Thus, residents and visitors should be taking the
proper precautions to avoid heat illness, such as drinking
adequate amounts of water and taking breaking from direct sun
and/or heat during peak heating hours during the afternoon.

While subtropical ridging will remain overhead going into early
next week, attention will turn towards a deepening trough across
the eastern CONUS. A couple of shortwaves rotating around the
main circulation over the Ontario area is expected to result in
developing surface low pressure beginning Saturday, with a much
more potent reinforcing trough that`ll weaken the ridging aloft
and may push a cold front across the region as early as late this
weekend and into early next week.

Ensembles show pretty considerable spread on timing and resultant
amounts, so how things align will be worth monitoring. At the very
least, the tropical moisture surging from the south combined with
frontal lift would result in heavy rainfall wherever these
conditions come together. Early rainfall projections across the
region in the Sunday AM-Tuesday AM timeframe are around 1-2" with
locally higher amounts (75th percentile) around 3-4". WPC has
begun to highlight southeast TX with at least a Marginal Excessive
Rainfall risk starting Sunday and increasing to a Slight risk on
Monday. Depending on how quickly the decaying frontal boundary
moves across the region, heavy rainfall may continue into
Wednesday, favoring the coastal areas. Expect cooler temperatures
during this period back towards near normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Southeasterly winds remain in the 10-15KT range at all sites to
start this TAF period, with occasional gusts around 20KT included
at some sites. Gusts drop off and winds will gradually lower
overnight while veering to the SSE. In the overnight and early
morning hours, an MVFR deck is forecast to move in from the east,
lowering CIGS at sites generally north of I-10. Persistence
forecasting hints that sites south of I-10 may see some off and on
MVFR CIGS during this time frame, though confidence is lower.
Some models hint at an area IFR CIGS at KCLL and KUTS during the
overnight and early morning hours as well. CIGS are expected to
lift and scatter out by mid morning. Winds gradually build back to
around 10KT and shift back to southeasterly by tomorrow
afternoon. A couple of short-lived showers could effect areas
along and around I-10 tomorrow afternoon, with PoPs of 15-20%.

MLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds are expected throughout
the rest of the work week with seas of 2 to 5 feet. Caution flags
may be warranted at times over the next few days, especially this
weekend as seas near 6 to 7 feet offshore. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day with rain chances rising
over the weekend into early next week. A high risk of rip currents
is anticipated almost daily for the foreseeable future.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  92  76  93 /  10  20   0  10
Houston (IAH)  78  92  77  92 /  10  20   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  82  88  82  88 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Young
AVIATION...MLG
MARINE...Young

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion