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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

169
FXUS64 KHGX 300538
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1238 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Through Friday: Hot and mostly dry (very slight chance of an
  isolated sea breeze shower/storm). Heat indices near advisory
  criteria.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible by the weekend.


- Next week`s outlook features seasonably hot conditions w/ a
  chance of isolated afternoon showers/storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

The mid/upper pattern remains amplified, with the Lone Star State
under the influence of a strong ridge over western and central
CONUS. Ridging should remain strong, perhaps strengthen somewhat
through Friday. Ensemble guidance continues to suggest a modest
increase in mid/upper pressure heights through Friday. This will
keep conditions hot and mostly dry, with a slight chance of an
isolated sea breeze related shower or thunderstorm. Leaning a tad
cooler than the NBM worked well for us yesterday. So I went with a
mix of NBM and 25th percentile NBM for our Thursday / Friday
highs. But don`t be fooled by the word "cooler." Highs are still
expected to reach the upper 90s to around 100 in most inland
areas. Dew points are expected to mix down into the low 70s today,
then upper 60s to low 70s on Friday (higher at the coast). Heat
indices likely to be near advisory criteria, with most areas
peaking between 105F and 108F.


The pattern remains amplified going into the weekend. However,
the ridge should retrograde into west CONUS while downstream
troughing (currently over E CONUS) pushes westward. Ensembles are
in good agreement with this scenario, showing a 500MB height drop
from ~595dm on Friday to ~587dm by Sunday. Guidance is rather
aggressive with an amplifying, positively tilted, deep trough on
Sunday that extends from the Great Lakes into the southern
Mississippi River Valley. An associated surface low is expected to
push eastward across the Midwest over the weekend, with its
trailing cold front pushing into E TX by Saturday. The front
should be weak and increasingly diffused as it approaches our
region. But it may supply sufficient lift in a less capped
environment to allow for scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity Saturday afternoon through early Sunday. This activity
could be limited to our northern zones on Saturday, before pushing
farther south Saturday night into early Sunday.

Long range guidance suggests that ridging returns next week. For
now, we are leaning towards seasonably hot and humid conditions
with a chance of isolated sea breeze related showers / storms.


Self


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

VFR conditions across all terminals this evening is expected to
continue through the overnight hours with some lower clouds starting
to build around 08Z. Generally expecting MVFR CIGs around 13-14Z
mainly across northern terminals (UTS/CLL/CXO) due to low confidence
elsewhere have opted to leave out of TAFs for other sites. Winds
overnight through early afternoon should be light and variable with
south to southwesterly winds up to around 10-11KT through the
evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Light to moderate southwesterly winds and 2-3 foot Gulf seas are
expected through Friday. By Saturday, an approaching frontal
boundary is expected to tighten the low-level gradient, increasing
southwesterly flow to 15-20 knots, possibly higher, by Saturday
afternoon and night. Seas may increase to 4 feet as a response to
the increasing winds. Caution Flags will likely be warranted.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the front are
possible Saturday night into Sunday. The outlook for early next
week features light to moderate southwesterly winds, 2-3 foot
seas, and a slight chance of isolated showers/storms along the sea
breeze boundary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  97  76  99 /   0  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  78  99  78  99 /  10  20   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  82  91  82  89 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion