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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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226
FXUS64 KHGX 180454
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1154 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Hot and dry, with lower humidity through Saturday.


 - Humidity returns Sunday along with daily diurnal storm chances
   into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

The tropical PWAT plume and subtle sfc boundary that enhanced
scattered showers and thunderstorms in our southern and coastal
counties on Thursday will push well to our west on Friday.
Meanwhile, much drier conditions are approaching our region from
the east. Unfortunately, this `new` air mass will not bring much
cooler temperatures. But humidity on Friday and Saturday should be
lower, with afternoon dew points falling into the 60s for many
inland locations. Inland afternoon highs should remain well into
the 90s. But the drier air is likely to allow for somewhat cooler
overnight temperatures, especially away from the coast and outside
the urban heat island. A few locally cool spots could even drop
into the upper 60s Friday night and again Saturday night. I guess
we`ll take what we can get. Despite the dry air, there may be a
few stray showers over the Gulf and near the coast through Friday
morning.

By Sunday and beyond, we find ourselves back in a humid and very
hot pattern. We think there will be a daily risk of isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially in our southern
and coastal zones. Other than persistent mid/upper ridging, there
are no other significant synoptic forcings that are expected to
influence the pattern. No fall weather anytime soon. Sorry y`all.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all sites with light and VRB winds for
inland sites and ESE winds at 5-10 kts along the coast. Winds
increase and turn ~E at 6-10 kts by late tomorrow morning at all
sites. A dry air mass will push westward into our region
throughout the night and tomorrow, limiting potential for
convection. Any showers/storms that do develop will likely be
diurnally driven and isolated in nature. Otherwise, a dry and VFR
day is in store for tomorrow.

MLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Residual gusty winds and enhanced seas are expected to linger
into Friday morning, especially offshore. Otherwise, we expected
light to moderate onshore flow over the next several days. Friday
and Saturday should be much drier, though we can`t rule out a
stray shower over the Gulf. Daily risk of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms returns Sunday or Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  97  74  97  71 /  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  93  77  94  75 /  30   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  91  84  90  83 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 AM CDT Friday for
     GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...MLG
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion