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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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333
FXUS64 KHGX 271110
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
610 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably hot conditions will continue through at least early
  next week. Peak heat index values between 102-107F (39-42C)
  through Tuesday.

- Moderate to high rip current risk along area beaches through the
  weekend.

- Rain chances re-enter the forecast towards the middle of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Mid-lvl ridging will shift east of the area today, becoming centered
over the Lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday and then gradually
progressing further northeastward through the upcoming workweek. The
proximity of the ridge and its associated subsidence
inversion and elevated dry layer will keep rain chances quite low
through early next week. The highest chances for a
shallow sea-breeze induced shower or two looks to be on Sunday as
the capping inversion weakens somewhat, but given meager moisture
and forcing, fcst PoPs are still only around 10%. As mentioned in
previous discussions a noticeable SAL plume will pass through the
area Sunday PM through early Tuesday, bringing renewed dry and
hazy conditions.

As the ridge shifts northeast towards the middle of next week,
easterly flow on its southern flank will enable some deeper
moisture to filter into the area, with PWATs increasing to around
2 inches by Wednesday. Consequently low- medium (20-35%) rain
chances return to the forecast Wednesday/Thursday, although the
track of a weak upper- lvl disturbance will likely determine how
widespread rain coverage is.

The main forecast concern will continue to be seasonably hot
and humid conditions with forecast highs in the low to mid 90s, lows
in the upper 70s/low 80s and peak heat indices approaching or
exceeding 105 degrees each afternoon. As mentioned in previous
discussions, although heat indices and WBGT values should remain
just below advisory criteria, those with outdoor plans should
still take the necessary precautions to avoid heat stress.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Patchy MVFR ceilings exist this morning, mainly in the vicinity of
CLL, with more spotty instances further south and east. These
will mix out or lift to VFR by mid-morning. Another round of MVFR
ceilings is possible during the early morning hours Sunday with
highest probabilities north and west of Houston. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Southerly winds
may gust to 20-25 kt at times late this morning through this
afternoon and again during the daytime hours Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Moderate southerly winds and 3 to 5 foot seas will prevail
through the weekend. There will be a moderate to high risk of rip
currents along area beaches through early next week. Rain chances
will remain very low through early next week...increasing to the
low to medium range by mid-week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  94  77  95  78 /   0  10  10   0
Houston (IAH)  94  79  95  79 /   0  10  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  89  84  89  84 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT this morning
     for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NC
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...NC

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion