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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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563
FXUS64 KHGX 251120
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot but less humid through Saturday.

- Rain and storm chances increase next week.

- Cold front mid-week??

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

With the diffuse boundary already further south and drier
northeasterly flow filtering in, slightly cooler conditions are
expected early this morning at least for our northern counties.
Saturday morning looks even more comfortable with lows in the 60s
and low 70s for most of the region. Ridging aloft will remain the
primary synoptic influence through the short term, maintaining hot
but less humid conditions today and Saturday. Little to no rain is
expected with only an isolated shower or storm near the immediate
coast.

The synoptic pattern begins to evolve Sunday into early next week as
the mid to upper lvl ridge shifts eastward and low level flow turns
southerly, initiating a gradual surge in low level moisture. Isolated
to scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms become
possible on Monday, focused primarily along the seabreeze boundary.

Attention then turns to what could be the next rainmaker for the
region mid to late week. Global guidance continues to indicate a
fetch of deep Pacific moisture associated with a deepening upper lvl
trough digging across the western CONUS and Tropical Cyclone Polo
near Baja California. Simultaneously, persistent southerly low lvl
flow will maintain a continuous surge of Gulf moisture into SE
TX. Global models and ensemble means show a distinct uptick in
PWATs mainly Tuesday into the end of the week. However,
discrepancies persist regarding the phase of the trough and the
associated front. The GFS, including the AIGFS and ensemble
members favor a faster, wetter solution for the region. In
contrast, the ECMWF remains slightly slower and drier. While
specific details regarding timing and rainfall totals remain
uncertain, confidence is increasing in a transition toward a
wetter pattern from late Tuesday through the end of the week.
Precipitation chances and cloud cover will help pull temperatures
back closer to seasonal normals.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the next 30+ hours.  47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Light east to southeast winds overnight will generally transition to
the ENE during the day. An isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled
out; but in general, drier conditions are expected at least through
Sunday. A pattern change is expected next week as a disturbance and
associated cold front move through the region. Specific details in
timing and impacts across the coastal waters are still uncertain;
however, confidence in a wetter pattern for most of the week is
increasing. Seas will generally remain in the 1 to 3 ft range
through the weekend, potentially increasing by midweek along with
elevated winds (reaching Advisory levels) as the aforementioned
front moves through.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  96  69  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  93  73  92  75 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  89  81  89  81 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...47
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion