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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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FXUS64 KHGX 171827
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
127 PM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Tomorrow Night]...

Surface high pressure spread across east Texas with weak midlevel
ridging moving over Texas has led to a fantastic day across region,
and expect more of the same through the short term. There is a weak
shortwave embedded in the midlevel ridge that will bring an increase
of cloud cover tonight compared to last night. This cloud cover will
keep temperatures tonight a few degrees warmer than last night with
lows in the upper 40s to low 50s north of Huntsville, in the low to
mid 50s between Huntsville and the coast, and upper 50s to low 60s
along the coast. The surface high does begin to slowly slide to the
east on Monday bringing a light southeasterly flow across the
western Gulf which brings in slightly warmer temperatures and higher
moisture content. High temperatures on Monday will be in the upper
70s for most of the area with overnight lows similar to tonight, but
add about 5 degrees. No chance of precipitation through the short
term.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Sunday]...

With high pressure off to our east and onshore flow becoming
increasingly prevalent, temperatures and moisture will be on an
upward trend heading into midweek. On Tuesday, we wave goodbye to
highs in the 70s and say hello to highs in the low 80s. Going into
Tuesday night, things get a bit interesting at the surface. A lobe
of vorticity at 850 mb will wrap around the western edge of the
surface high pressure and move northward towards the Upper Texas
coastline. Some deterministic models show a subtle, weak circulation
developing at the surface and moving ashore on early Wednesday
morning. With moisture on the low side over majority of the CWA
(1.2"-1.4"), not expecting much more than isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms mainly closer to the coast and east of I-
45. The biggest impact this will have is making the wind forecast
for Tuesday/Wednesday a bit tricky.

The next feature of note is our next chance of a cold front towards
the end of the week. Model consensus persists on a cutoff upper-
level low embedded in a weak trough moving across the Central Plains
midweek. The weak cold front that`s associated with this will flirt
with Southeast Texas towards the end of the week, but it`s up in the
air as to whether or not it will push all the way through. As of
right now, model consensus leans towards yes but only briefly. Euro
and GFS show the front moving in and becoming diffuse on Thursday
night into Friday morning. There is a brief wind shift with both of
these models with northeasterly winds Friday morning, easterly winds
by the afternoon, and back to southeasterly winds by nighttime. The
Canadian stalls the front over the northern third of the CWA and is
quicker with the return of onshore flow. All three models are fairly
dry with this FROPA, so rain chances remain on the low side. Either
way, there is agreement that drier air will backdoor its way into
the eastern half of the CWA going into the weekend.

With surface high pressure pushing off to our east again at the end
of the week, onshore flow will become a prominent feature throughout
the weekend and into early next week. So it`s a safe bet that high
temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 80s and that rain
chances along  the coast in the late morning/afternoon hours will
persist.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions prevail with high clouds and light easterly flow
through sunset. Then variable or calm winds through the night
becoming east to southeasterly during the day tomorrow.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...

Surface high pressure sliding off to the east has resulted in
coastal winds transitioning to more of an easterly component
today. Winds will become southeasterly by Monday and persist into
midweek. Models are indicating a weak circulation may develop
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, but this will do nothing more
than create varying wind directions and a slight chance of
showers/thunderstorms mainly in the eastern Gulf waters. Towards
the end of the work week, a weak cold front will attempt to push
through the coastal waters and bring a brief wind shift to
northeasterly/easterly. Another surface high pressure moves off
to the east of the area going into the weekend. This will bring a
prolonged period of onshore flow that prevails into early next
week.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  51  76  54  81  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)          54  77  58  82  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)        68  76  71  82  75 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion