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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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282
FXUS64 KHGX 240729
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
129 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

...New MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freezing rain and potentially sleet are expected across much of
  the region starting later today in our northern zones, expanding
  southward towards the Houston Metro and potentially the coast by
  Sunday morning. Ice may be heavy enough to result in power
  outages in some areas, particularly in our northern counties.

- Ice Storm Warnings, Winter Storm Warnings, and Winter Weather
  Advisories are in effect across the region.

- ANY amount of ice can result in dangerous travel conditions.
  Travel impacts will last until at least Monday as moisture
  refreezes on roadways. Impacts possible through Tuesday in the
  Piney Woods and Brazos valley.

- Extended periods of below freezing temperatures along with hard
  freezes are expected Sunday morning through Tuesday morning.
  Portions of the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley will stay below
  freezing for multiple days.

- Dangerously cold wind chills are expected, with values ranging
  from as low as 10 degrees at the coast and as low as -5 degrees
  in the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley.

- Residents are encouraged to winterize their home and make plans
  to keep themselves and loved ones warm during the work week
  prior to the arrival of the Arctic air.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1122 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

There`s a lot to unpack in this AFD with a major winter storm and
prolonged cold affecting the CWA over the coming days. To make
this easier to follow, we`ll break the forecast down into
chapters.

Chapter 1: The Set Up

Water vapor imagery depicts a robust mid/upper-level low over the
Baja Peninsula. The system is deep, with a closed low above 700
mb and an associated trough from about 700 mb to the surface. The
system`s tilt has gradually evolved from a positive orientation
to a more neutral structure. With time, the system is expected to
assume a more negative tilt as it progresses eastward across
northern Mexico. As it pushes east, the mid/upper heights
gradient overhead will steepen, fomenting a strengthening and
increasingly diffluent jet across northern Mexico and the Lone
Star State on Saturday into Sunday. This diffluence will be
accompanied by strong positive vorticity advection, enhancing
synoptic ascent. Lower in the atmosphere (925-850 mb), strong
south to southeasterly flow supports efficient moisture transport
from the Gulf, contributing to the scattered to widespread
precipitation across much of Texas and Oklahoma overnight.

Meanwhile at the surface, a ~1050 mb high is centered over the
northern plains, pushing frigid arctic air southward. The leading
edge of this shallow arctic air (as of midnight) has already
reached Central Texas. Thus, much of the activity on radar across
western and northern Texas is snow, sleet, and freezing rain.
So far, most computer models have biased too slow with both the
progression of the front and the rate of temperature decrease in
the font`s wake, suggesting a lean towards colder model guidance
is scientifically prudent. The arctic air will continue surging
southward Saturday, as the aforementioned ML/UL low approaching
from the west induces ascent in a moisture rich environment. These
ingredients support very high precipitation chances and tumbling
temperatures this weekend across our region, with frozen
precipitation becoming increasingly likely later today, tonight,
and into Sunday. And with robust WAA aloft, the frozen precip will
likely be in the form of freezing rain, and maybe some sleet.

Chapter 2: Saturday Morning Thunderstorms?

The strengthening WSW mid/upper jet and enhanced south to
southeast LL flow will result in a helical and increasingly
sheared vertical wind profile this morning. This will be
especially true south of the arctic front. Normally this would be
seen as a sign for severe weather. But instability will be lacking
due to the increasingly cold near sfc atmosphere. But HREF
ensembles are hinting at some enhanced LL CAPE (~500 J/KG) trying
to sneak its way northward into the Matagorda Bay region before
arctic air sweeps that instability out to sea. The window is
brief, but we will need to keep a watchful eye on the radar in the
vicinity of Matagorda Bay for a strong thunderstorm or two in the
5AM to 10AM time frame.

Chapter 3: Rain and Tumbling Temperatures Saturday Afternoon.

Scattered to widespread precipitation is expected on Saturday as
temperatures fall. By the afternoon, most areas north of the
Houston metro are expected to be in the 30s, with 40s farther
south. Some of the heaviest showers (and even a few thunderstorms)
will occur during the morning hours. Depending on how quickly
arctic air surges southward, we could have freezing rain in our
northern counties by this afternoon. 50th percentile HREF
suggests light ice accumulations will occur in our northern Piney
Woods zones as early as midday. We`ve been treating HREF 90th
percentile as a reasonably worst case scenario, which suggests
rain could change to freezing rain by midday as far south as
College Station. That`s earlier than our forecast depicts, but you
never want to underestimate the speed of arctic air.

Chapter 4: An Icy Changeover Saturday Night into Sunday

This is where the forecast becomes quite tricky given that small
errors in the temperature can mean the difference between plain
cold rain and freezing rain. Confidence is pretty high that our
northern counties should transition to freezing rain by this
evening (if not by afternoon). Sub-freezing air will continue to
filter south and east, as waves of precipitation stream into the
region from the southwest. By Sunday morning, we expect freezing
rain will expand southward into Houston. The ECMWF is adamant that
Houston will remains south of the ice zone. Yes, the ECMWF is a
great model. But it has had a poor initialization of the arctic
air looming behind the front. And given arctic air`s tendency to
over perform, we are thinking that this isn`t the ECMWF`s moment
to shine. Instead, we look to the better initialized HREF, AIGFS,
AIECMWF, and the GFS (yes, the GFS has a better initialization
than the ECMWF). This guidance suggest that frozen precip will
make it down to interior portions of our coastal counties. Thus,
our forecast brings "light" ice accumulations almost to the coast.
I put "light" in quotes since ANY amount of ice can cause
dangerous travel conditions.

Chapter 5: What To Do With Ice Accumulations?

I toiled over what to do with freezing rain accumulations. The
uncertainty not only lies with temperature, but also the potential
for robust frontogenesis induced banding near the end of the event
Sunday morning. It`s quite possible we may see a scenario with
widespread light glazing of ice with bands of much heavier and
potentially damaging ice. But the potential convective nature of
the banding could lend towards interesting precipitation
scenarios, possibly yielding to some sleet in the mix (if you
believe the HRRR). Our latest forecast technically shows
increasing ice accumulations across much of the CWA, enough to
warrant an expansion of the Ice Storm Warning. But complex
mesoscale processes may end up dictating not just the
accumulations, but also the location of heaviest freezing rain,
and maybe even sleet. So I lacked the confidence to change our
winter warning products in this update. We will monitor trends
overnight for a possible expansion of the warning this morning.

Chapter 6: Prolonged Cold

Many areas on Sunday afternoon may struggle to rise above
freezing, especially when considering likely cloud cover and
robust CAA. Cold temperatures will be accompanied by gusty winds,
bringing wind chill values well below actual temperatures. By
Sunday morning, we are expecting widespread teens to low 20s,
with wind chills in the single digits and teens. The cold could
greatly over perform Sunday night and Monday morning if there is
enough ice / sleet cover coupled with clearer skies. This is
particularly true over our northern counties, where 10th and 25th
percentile NBM guidance suggests single digit temperatures are
possible. Monday will be sunny. But temperatures may fail to rise
above freezing in our northern zones, while areas farther south
rise into the mid/upper 30s (maybe low 40s if we`re lucky).

High pressure overhead will support efficient radiation cooling
Monday night into Tuesday. Rural cold spots could easily drop well
down into the teens, while low and mid 20s are expected in more
urban and coastal areas. It may be tad warmer on the beaches,
while locally cold spots in our northernmost zones could fall into
the single digits if enough sleet / ice cover sticks around.
Temperatures will modify as we approach mid-week, ending this
strech of brutal cold. But temperatures are expected to remain
colder than normal through the week.

Chapter 7: One Storm at a Time

There are signs of another interesting system by next weekend. But
as the title of this chapter suggests, let`s just take it one
storm at a time.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 512 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

IFR/LIFR conditions persist this evening and overnight as a strong
Arctic cold front approaches the area. Light showers and drizzle
should develop out ahead of the front with a band of heavier
showers and thunderstorms expected as the front moves through
Saturday morning. Could see a few stronger storms too. Only some
modest improvement in CIGs will follow during the daytime. Light
showers persist across the area in the wake of the front. As
frigid, sub-freezing air rushes in behind the front, freezing
rain and sleet will be possible. Some ice accumulations could
occur during the daytime, primarily in areas north of IAH.
However, the main timeframe to watch will be Saturday night into
Sunday afternoon, as that is when the apex of the frozen
precipitation should fall. KUTS is anticipated to see the brunt
of the ice accumulations, but all TAF sites will be at risk of
getting some icing.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 128 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

A tightening pressure gradient will lead to increasing east winds
and building seas overnight. Conditions could become quite gusty
around the Galveston Bay area and adjacent coastal waters. Look for
some showers and storms to move into the region from the west
between 4-11am. A few storms could be strong.

An Arctic front will move into the waters during the day ushering in
much colder temperatures, strong north winds, and elevated seas.
Small Craft Advisories have been issued. Occasional gusts to near
gale are possible offshore, especially Saturday night and Sunday.
Additional rounds of precipitation are anticipated tonight into
Sunday. As temperatures fall to the freezing mark overnight,
freezing rain and possibly sleet is possible in the bays into Sunday
morning.

Low water conditions are looking likely around low tide cycles
Sunday night into Monday.

Mariners should take all of the above in consideration before
beginning or continuing their transits.

47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  22  27  13  31 / 100  40   0   0
Houston (IAH)  28  34  20  37 /  90  60   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  37  41  27  41 /  90  80  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Ice Storm Warning from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM CST Sunday for
     TXZ163-164-176>179.

     Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Monday
     for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-
     313-335>338-436>439.

     Extreme Cold Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning
     for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-
     313-335>338-436>439.

     Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM CST Sunday
     for TXZ195>199.

     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday
     for TXZ200-210>213-226-227-235-300-313.

     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Sunday
     for TXZ214-236>238-335>338-436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 9 AM CST this morning
     for GMZ330-350-370.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to noon CST Monday
     for GMZ330-350-370.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ335-355-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...03
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion