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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

780
FXUS64 KHGX 150540
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1240 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry weather conditions are expected through the
  weekend across southeast Texas with more locations with
  temperatures reaching the 90-degree mark.

- A wetter weather pattern returns by the middle of next week with
  some weekly rainfall totals at or over 1 inch becoming more
  likely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Dry and benign weather conditions are ongoing due to ridging aloft
and lighter winds as a result. In 24 hours this will change as the
ridge axis shifts further east and onshore southerly surface winds
return in earnest for a longer period of time (through most of
next week). Longwave troughing will also arrive over the weekend
to persist and eject across the Intermountain West, eventually
orienting southwesterly flow across Texas. Multiple rounds of
vorticity maxima embedded within this flow will serve as the
catalyst for multiple rounds of convection, beginning on Monday
and in earnest by next Tuesday. Long-range guidance currently
suggests a more diurnally-influenced, sub-severe convective cycle
with some lingering evening showers and thunderstorms. That said,
slightly above normal temperatures are expected until then (some
temperature maximums in the upper 80s/lower 90s) and near-normal
temperatures (temperature maximums in the upper 80s) as the wet
weather pattern returns by the middle of next week.

Cassel

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Mostly VFR conditions overnight with southerly winds 5-10kt. Can`t
completely rule out some very intermittent, patchy late night fog
for non-metro terminals where the wind briefly lays down 

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion