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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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477
FXUS64 KHGX 030447
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1147 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Couldn`t rule out patchy dense fog this morning.

- Hot summer weather through the forecast period.

- Isolated afternoon shower/storm possible first half of week.
  Somewhat better chance of an afternoon shower/storm later in the
  week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1116 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

A mid/upper ridge over SW CONUS is amplifying northeastward, with
its axis extending into the northern U.S. plains and central
Canada. A deep-layer trough remains in place over E CONUS, with
very dry mid/upper air pushing southward between the trough and
the ridge. Even at the surface, very low dew points have pushed
into our region in the wake of relatively weak sfc cold front. The
front has stalled near the coast, becoming increasingly diffused.
We`ll likely continue the dry LL regime on Monday, featuring
low/mid 60s dew points north of I-10 and 70s dew points near the
coast. However,the sea breeze boundary is expected to push further
inland Monday afternoon, bringing higher dew points farther
inland later in the day. Couldn`t rule out an isolated afternoon
shower or storm along the sea breeze boundary. We`ve actually
dialed back on the hot temperatures a tad, making me glad we
didn`t totally buy into those 102-104 degree temperatures the NBM
was suggesting a few days ago. But we are still calling for
temperatures near 100 degrees inland, and low 90s at the coast. If
the sea breeze is delayed, then we can get a little hotter.


The mid/upper flow pattern is expected to become less amplified as
the week progresses. The E CONUS trough should erode north, while
the ridge to our west expands, increasing mid/upper pressure
heights over Texas. Global ensemble mean 500 MB heights shows
values increasing from roughly ~588dam to ~594dam between now and
week`s end. One`s initial reaction to this trend would be the
expectation of building heat. But as the E CONUS troughing fades
away, our LL pattern will become more influenced by high pressure
to the east, establishing deep onshore flow. This will have a
tendency to increase the chance of late morning and afternoon
cumulus, and could potentially increase the risk of a few
isolated afternoon showers/storms. Therefore, afternoon high
temperatures are actually forecast to decrease somewhat later this
week (still quite hot in the mid 90s). However, persistent
onshore flow will likely increase dew points as well. So expect an
increasingly humid environment as the week progresses. Global
ensembles keep PWAT anomalies below average, thus the PoPs
remaining low all week.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

A stationary front continues to meander just south of I-10,
causing light and VRB winds at several sites to start this TAF
period. Winds are forecast to remain light and turn WSW early
tomorrow morning before increasing and backing to S-SSE by
tomorrow afternoon. There is a low chance for isolated showers and
thunderstorms in the Houston metro area tomorrow afternoon,
though confidence is too low to include in this TAF package. As
for VIS, recent model guidance has hinted at a narrow swath of
MVFR VIS south of I-10 around 12Z tomorrow morning. Given the
increasing dewpoints and decreasing temps overnight, along with
relatively light winds, a TEMPO group is included at KSGR and KLBX
to account for patchy fog potential.

MLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1116 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Light to moderate winds and low seas are expected through the
forecast period. Winds on Monday are expected to be west to
southwest, before becoming more southerly as we approach mid week.
By the end of the week, winds are expected to become more
southeasterly. Isolated shower or storm possible along the sea
breeze boundary during the first half of the week. Somewhat better
chance of a shower/storm in the afternoon for the bays, and in the
morning hours in the Gulf later in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  97  72 100  75 /   0   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)  98  77 100  79 /   0   0  20   0
Galveston (GLS)  95  81  91  83 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...MLG
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion