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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

149
FXUS64 KHGX 141848
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
148 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate risk of heat-related impacts this weekend into early next
  week.

- Persistent southeasterly flow will lead to a steady climb in
  humidity, potentially triggering spotty/isolated, diurnally-
  driven showers/storms throughout the weekend. Best rain and
  storm chances early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Per satellite and surface obs, the ridge axis is currently
positioned overhead, while at the surface, the high pressure is
currently centered over the coastal waters. Forecast soundings
suggest 850mb temperatures in the low 20s this afternoon. Mixing
these temperatures to the surface will yield highs generally in
the low 90s. Practice heat safety if you have outdoor plans for
this afternoon or early evening. Another tranquil night is
anticipated with overnight lows mainly in the 70s. Patchy fog
(mostly low-lying) is again expected, especially south of I-10.

Mid to upper level heights will begin to fall as the ridge axis
slides to our east. Medium range guidance continues to be in
better agreement in a shortwave trough moving into the
central/southern Plains, which will turn the flow more zonal
across the central CONUS by Friday and beyond. A tightening
pressure gradient due to a developing low over the central Plains
will lead to breezy conditions and stronger WAA across SE TX
through the weekend. In fact, PWs will be on the increase (1.5 -
1.9 inch) through early next week. Given the increased humidity
and WAA, isolated showers/storms cannot ruled out over the
weekend. In addition to rain chances, it will feel very humid.
Surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 70s late this weekend
into the upcoming week. These warm and humid conditions will lead
to peak heat indices of 95 to 100F Sunday through at least
Tuesday. A moderate risk of heat- related impacts is anticipated,
i.e. these conditions may affect those who are sensitive to heat
or without adequate cooling and hydration.

As we head into the upcoming week,a stronger shortwave trough
will move across the northern Rockies and High Plains, resulting
in several disturbances ahead of it. This "messy" pattern aloft
will provide enough forcing for showers and storms Monday and
Tuesday. As of now, the best chance for scattered to widespread
showers and storms is late Tuesday into Wednesday due to the
passage of a weak frontal boundary. Overall, daily rain and storm
chances are expected through the entire week as persistent
southerly flow at the surface keeps the region warm and humid,
while multiple disturbances aloft provide enough forcing for rain
to occur.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Other than some early morning patchy fog, expect VFR conditions
through the rest of the day. SSW winds late this morning will
become S to SSE by mid/late afternoon. Houston area could
experience a period of SE 10-13 kt winds as the bay breeze pushes
inland late afternoon and early evening. Winds are expected to
decrease again by evening and overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Surface high pressure is currently centered across the northwestern
Gulf, resulting in light southerly winds across the Upper TX coast.
While winds and seas will generally remain light/low through late
evening; expect some gusts along the coast and bays with the
seabreeze late this afternoon. Winds become slightly stronger by
Friday, with speeds between 12 to 20 knots. Moderate onshore winds
and building seas (4 to 6 ft) can be expected through the weekend
and into the upcoming week. Small craft should exercise caution
through the weekend, with low-end advisory levels possible early
next week.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  90  68  89  71 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  92  71  90  73 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  84  76  83  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion