Skip to main content.

National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

Related quick links> 5 Day Forecast, Local Advisories, Drought Monitor, UV Forecast, Air Quality Forecast 
475
FXUS64 KHGX 042353
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
653 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to occasionally numerous showers and storms are
  expected for the remainder of the work week and into the weekend.

- Warm and humid conditions will prevail in between rounds of
  precipitation.

- Look for increasing winds/seas/rip current risk along the coast
  today and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Isolated to scattered late morning and early afternoon showers
and thunderstorms brought 1-2 inches of rainfall for areas that
saw this activity, with localized higher amounts favoring the I-45
corridor across the Houston metro, which prompted a number of
Flood Advisory issuances. Current activity is now favored over the
coastal counties, but expected to redevelop and move inland again
later this afternoon as mesoanalysis depicts a favored area of
deep moist convergence centered over the Galveston Bay area.

Residual ridging aloft continues to get weakened by shortwave
activity moving across the central to southern Plains, which
continues to enable daily seabreeze shower and thunderstorm
activity. A closed low tracking eastward across northern Mexico
will continue the persistence forecast of daily shower/storm
activity with locally heavy rainfall into this weekend. Once this
upper low feature ejects north of the region by late this weekend,
shower and storm activity is then anticipated to wane as upper
level ridging builds ever so slightly and PWAT anomalies fall
from ~150% of normal back towards right around normal by early
next week. Temperatures will follow generally a below normal trend
over the next several days due to the shower/storm activity, but
anticipated warming temperatures with afternoon highs reaching
into the lower 90s for areas that don`t see convection starting
early next week.

Positive mid-level height anomalies will likely linger into the
middle of the week, but looks like some combination of a Pacific
trough and/or an influx of tropical moisture will work to break
the ridge down going into the latter portions of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

VFR at all site this evening. Still have showers and storms
working their way through the area as we continue to have an
influx of moisture interact with an unstable environment.
Overnight activity will be possible closer to the coast.
VFR conditions will prevail through around 03-06Z, after which
MVFR CIGs will move in. A brief period of IFR CIGs will be
possible at CLL. Expect conditions to bounce between MVFR/VFR
through much of the day as more showers and thunderstorms develop
during the daytime and continue through the end of the TAF cycle.

Bailey

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Easterly to southeasterly winds will prevail through the rest of
the week before turning more southerly around Saturday. Winds will
be elevated with periods of small craft exercise caution to small
craft advisory headlines will be likely needed at times. In
addition, due to the prolonged winds there may be increased waves,
rip currents, and slightly higher water levels during high tide
cycle.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  72  85  72  86 /  30  40  30  60
Houston (IAH)  73  86  75  88 /  60  60  10  50
Galveston (GLS)  80  87  80  88 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 AM CDT Friday for
     GMZ335-355-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Young
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...BL

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion