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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

083
FXUS64 KHGX 200529
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1229 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Hot with a daily risk of isolated showers and thunderstorms
    along the sea breeze boundary.

  - Chance of late afternoon / evening thunderstorms has increased
    for our northern counties on Monday.

  - Slightly less hot later in the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Overall, the general expected synoptic pattern over the next few
days has not changed. Persistent, yet weakening, ridging should
dominate the Lone Star State. The ridge will be influential enough
to help skew temperatures hotter than normal. But it shouldn`t be
suppressive enough to prevent diurnally forced isolated showers
and thunderstorms. We suspect there will be a daily risk of
isolated showers/storms, particularly in our southern and coastal
counties. However, the guidance is suggesting the high may erode a
little more on Monday, allowing PVA from a shortwave to sneak
into our region by the afternoon and evening. 00Z HRRR is even
going as far as showing thunderstorm activity in our northern
counties by late Monday afternoon. For this reason, I decided to
add some low PoPs in our northern counties late Monday afternoon
evening. We`ll monitor trends in case we need to bump up PoPs
during that time frame. Inland afternoon temperatures are expected
to average in the mid / upper 90s through the mid-week (upper 80s
to low 90s at the coast)

Not much has changed regarding expectations in the late week
pattern. Guidance still suggests a deepening E CONUS trough with
ridging aloft over central CONUS. This signals a continuation of
hot weather, but there may be a backdoor frontal boundary that at
least brings lower humidity and perhaps drops temperatures a few
degrees.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(03Z TAF Amendment)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites with light and VRB winds.
Northern sites, including KCLL, KUTS, and KCXO, have a chance for
MVFR CIGS and patchy fog early tomorrow morning, which should clear
out shortly after sunrise. Signals in the models for MVFR CIGs have
decreased, though some FEW/SCT MVFR level cloud decks are still
possible. Precipitation chances remain minimal tomorrow, though KGLS
may see a few short lived showers in the morning/early afternoon.
Winds increase and return to the SE by tomorrow afternoon.

MLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Light to occasionally moderate east to southeast winds, should
become more consistently moderate and from the east to northeast
by the middle to later part of the week. There will be a daily
risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorm through mid-week. Gulf
seas are expected to be in the 1-3 foot range. However, seas may
increase somewhat later in the week, possibly nearing 5 feet
well offshore by Thursday.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  96  74  97  75 /   0   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)  94  75  96  77 /   0   0  20   0
Galveston (GLS)  90  83  90  83 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...MLG
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion