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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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394
FXUS64 KHGX 131044
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
444 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry, warm and more humid today.

- Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
  on Saturday. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are
  possible in the afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and small
  hail are the main hazards.

- Conditions will turn drier and warm, with more comfortable
  humidity levels from Sunday into the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1209 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Tonight`s weather continues to evolve around the nearly stationary
surface boundary extending over Southeast Texas. Surface
convergence, light winds and lingering moisture are once again
leading to areas of fog. Hi-res models suggest a widespread dewpoint
depression dropping into the 0 to 2 degF range. A Dense Fog Advisory
is in effect and will likely expand further inland; fog will persist
through 8 - 10 AM.

Another dry and warm day is expected today as the upper-level ridge
axis moves overhead. Persistent southerly surface flow will continue
to bring an uptick in Gulf moisture throughout the day. Therefore,
expect partly to mostly cloudy skies and slightly humid conditions.
Highs will generally be in the upper 70s to low 80s.

We continue to monitor the next upper-level trough that is expected
to move across TX on Saturday. Multiple vorticity maxima aloft will
be ejecting ahead of the main trough late Friday into early
Saturday, leading to scattered activity beginning to develop across
the region. This is a positive tilted wave, so it could potentially
be progressive with a low-end severe threat. We cannot ignore the
environment "cooking" ahead of the associated cold front. Increasing
WAA along with the persistent southerly surface flow, will bring an
uptick in moisture with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. As the
day progresses, showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage
and intensity due to peak daytime heating and increasing LLJ.

Latest guidance suggest that the surface cold front will still be
west of our CWA by late Saturday afternoon. If that happens, there
will be decent destabilization of airmass ahead of this boundary
with moderate 0-6km shear and increasing instability (though still
at a low to moderate level). Therefore, a progressive line of
convection, likely with some strong updrafts may form. This line
could bring a risk of damaging winds and small hail through the
region from late Saturday afternoon into late Saturday night. Agree
with SPC regarding the Marginal Risk of severe weather in their Day
2 outlook.

The main caveat to the severe weather threat is whether instability
remains low as the front moves into our area, potentially due to
cloud coverage from pre frontal showers and storms. This cloud cover
could play a major role in stabilization prior to the main line of
thunderstorms along the front. Regardless, there should be some
strong to severe weather mainly along the line. The associated cold
front should move off the coast by late Saturday night/early Sunday,
ending any rain.

Drier air with breezy northerly winds is expected on Sunday. While
temperatures will stay about the same, the air will feel a lot less
humid as dewpoints drop into the 40s and 50s through at least
Tuesday. Dry weather is expected to continue through the end of the
long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 444 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Widespread LIFR to IFR conditions due to fog and low ceilings will
continue through 15-16Z before visibilities/ceilings begin to
improve. IFR to MVFR ceilings may linger through 18Z, especially
for terminals closer to the coast. Southerly to southeasterly
winds will be breezier this afternoon with sustained winds in the
9-12 kt range and occasional gusts near 20 kt. There is potential
for low ceilings to hang around near or over GLS through the
afternoon. Expect low ceilings and visibilities to gradually
filter in again from south to north following sunset. Elevated
winds overnight into Saturday morning will make the next round
more of a low ceilings (IFR to LIFR) event for most terminals, but
decreased visibilities are certainly possible especially near and
south of I-10.

Expecting a similar type of event where decreased visibilities
clear up around 15Z Saturday morning along with ceilings slightly
increasing. MVFR ceilings are expected to persist well into the
afternoon hours. Isolated showers will be possible beginning early
Saturday morning with coverage gradually expanding going into the
late morning/early afternoon hours.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1209 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Areas of dense fog are expected overnight and will persist into at
least mid Friday morning. A weak frontal boundary remains nearly
stationary further inland, serving as the focus for fog development.
A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for all Gulf waters and the
bays through 10AM Friday.

Winds and seas will be increasing today ahead of the next weather
system that will be bringing a cold front Saturday night. Expect
increasing rain and storm chances Friday night into late Saturday
night. Some strong to marginally severe storms will be possible with
heavy rain, damaging winds and small hail as the main hazards. A
Small Craft Advisory will likely be issued through the weekend.
Moderate to occasional offshore winds can be expected in the wake of
the front on Sunday. Drier conditions and light onshore winds return
early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  80  63  74  56 /   0  20 100  70
Houston (IAH)  77  63  75  59 /  10  10  90  90
Galveston (GLS)  73  61  71  59 /  10  20  70 100

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ200-213-
     214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335-
     350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion