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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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553
FXUS64 KHGX 082322
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
522 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm, and more humid weather is expected through the week.

- A chance showers and thunderstorms for parts of the area Tuesday
  afternoon into Wednesday as a weak disturbance moves through.

- Areas of fog and sea fog during the nighttime and morning hours
  on a daily basis for much of the week could cause
  navigation/commuting hazards.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1125 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

The main talking point this week will be the fog that develops
nightly that will continue into the mid-morning hours each day.
Like we saw last night, the fog will be dense at times, initially
forming along the coast and then expanding northwards through the
night. Fog begins to scatter out in the inland locations during
the mid- morning hours, but there could be some lingering sea fog
along the coast that continues into the afternoon. Fog potential
will be highest through midweek, but could continue nightly
through Friday night. There will be quirks each night on how
widespread/dense the fog gets (slightly higher winds could lead to
less fog, warming SSTs limiting sea fog potential), but the
overall message will be that fog is likely nightly.

We`ve mentioned about the passing disturbance on Tuesday bringing
scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area. Guidance has
trended weaker with the disturbance and later (moving through
more Tuesday night into Wednesday morning), so PoPs have decreased
on Tuesday with the likelihood of thunderstorms much lower. We
will still continue to watch this disturbance in the next couple
of days, but as of now just anticipating isolated rain showers
producing light accumulations. Now, our next decent chance of rain
will not be until next weekend when the next upper-level
disturbance moves through. As of now, this disturbance looks to be
stronger compared to the system moving through on Tuesday, but we
are still several days away to gain much confidence in the
details of this disturbance.

Warm weather will continue through Friday with high temperatures
in the upper 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the upper 50s to
mid-60s.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 522 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Southerly to southeasterly winds in the 10-15 kt range will
continue over the next few hours, then trend towards becoming
light and variable during the overnight hours. Like last night,
the main story will be fog and low ceilings. Widespread IFR to
LIFR conditions are expected once again especially between
08Z-15Z. There will be elevated southwesterly winds aloft
overnight as well, which could be a potential inhibitor of
widespread dense fog development. For now though, rolling with a
persistence forecast with IFR/LIFR conditions prevailing for most
of the night into Monday morning. MVFR ceilings may linger into
the late morning hours before improving to VFR. Winds will pick up
out of the south-southwest around 10 kt and gradually
transitioning to southerly by the afternoon. Another round of fog
and low ceilings is anticipated Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1125 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Sea fog will continue to be possible nightly through at least
mid-week, but could continue through Friday night. There are some
uncertainties in the forecast that could limit fog development: a
more southwesterly wind tonight may limit development, and warming
SSTs through the week could also limit development - but the main
takeaway will be to be prepared for several days of sea fog
development. Highest confidence in the fog develop with be during
the late evening (8-10pm) through mid-morning (8-10am) periods,
but patchy fog could linger in the southern bays/near shore waters
into the afternoons.

Otherwise, expect light onshore winds and low seas through this
week. A weak disturbance moving through Tuesday night may trigger
some isolated showers into Wednesday morning, but overall rain
chances are low this week. A potentially stronger system, with a
cold front, may pass through next weekend ending the sea fog
threat.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  57  83  60  78 /   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)  59  80  61  78 /   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  58  69  60  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Fowler

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion