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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

189
FXUS64 KHGX 120534
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1234 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Heat Advisory in effect for parts of the region this afternoon.
   Expect peak heat index readings between 106-109F. Practice heat
   safety if you have outdoor events planned.

-  Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected. Better
   chances generally south and east of the US59/I69 corridor.

-  Typical summertime weather is anticipated for the rest of the
   weekend and next week. Highs in the 90s, lows in the 70s, and
   isolated to scattered coastal precipitation each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Remnant mid level troffiness should be situated further south today
with the shear axis generally situated along and east of the
US59/I69 corridor. Though PW`s should remain around 2" for almost
all of the region today, those further north and west of the axis
will see some H85 temps between 20-23C which should put up a fight
in terms of shra/tstm development. Further south of this axis, atmos
won`t be quite as hostile for initiation...though it might be
delayed til later in the afternoon compared to the earlier starts
that we`ve seen in past days. So, today, overall precip coverage
shouldn`t be as much as we`ve seen lately...but temps will be a
touch higher and combined with the RH`s - so will the heat
indices. We`re looking at peaks between 106-109F and will be going
with a short-fuse Heat Advisory for northern and western parts of
the region.

Sunday, we should see a touch higher PW`s move into the region from
the east so would still anticipate another rough of scattered,
diurnally driven showers and tstms across southern parts of the
region.

Next week, mid-upper ridging to our west will track over Texas, set
up shop in the SE states toward midweek, weaken and move back to the
east during the second part of the work week. This should mostly set
the stage for typical summertime weather - mostly dry and warm, with
isolated to scattered coastal showers/storms each day.  Just minor
fluctuations in temps and POPs based on ridge positioning and PW`s.
(Could see a bump in coastal POPs Thur if higher PW air pushes
toward the Texas coast, though right now that may end up bypassing
most of us to the south). 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Cloud decks will lower to around 1500-2000ft overnight, and could
briefly fill in to produce MVFR CIGS early Saturday morning
(potentially to IFR FLs). Isolated patchy fog will also be possible
in spots during the early morning, mainly in fog prone locations
like KCXO. CIGs/Fog should clear around or by the late morning
hours. Showers are also expected to develop over the coast Saturday
morning. Convection should slowly shift inland during the afternoon.
Greater influence from the ridge should reduce shower/storm
coverage, though model guidance was too bear on convection for
Friday. With this uncertainty, I`ve added mentions for TSRA but
maintained PROB30 categories. Any convection that does develop
should tapper off into Saturday evening, with winds becoming light
once again.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Winds are in the 15-20kt range in the Gulf so will be flying the
caution flags until around sunrise. Speeds should somewhat diminish
through the day, more in the 10-15kt range and 2-4ft seas for the
rest of the weekend. There will be a daily risk of isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms for the next several
days...moreso from Freeport eastward. The best chance of a
thunderstorms in the Gulf will be overnight and the early morning
hours. For the bays, the best chance of a shower or thunderstorm
will be during the afternoon.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  99  77  98  77 /  10   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)  95  78  95  78 /  50  50  30   0
Galveston (GLS)  91  84  91  84 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ163-164-176-177-195>199-210>213-226-227-235-236.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT this morning
     for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...03
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion