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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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282
FXUS64 KHGX 210620
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1220 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense sea fog through this morning.

- Stalled boundary is reinforced and push off the coast as a cold
  front this afternoon/evening.

- Strong winds follow in the wake of the front through Sunday with
  elevated to near critical fire weather conditions through
  Monday.

- Onshore flow returns on Tuesday, warming conditions through
  Thursday ahead of another cold front around early Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1219 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

A stalled frontal boundary is currently positioned along a rough
line from Edna to Livingston early today. The slew of short-range
models are slow with it`s frontal progression, and even the faster
outcomes like the ARW don`t show it pushing off the coast till this
afternoon at the earliest. This means we`ll have one more foggy
morning across the coast, as the pockets of dense fog over the
nearshore coastal waters fill into the bays and surrounding coast
zones. Inland and marine Dense Fog Advisories remain in effect until
9 AM today. Fog should begin to thin and burn off with daytime
heating.

The front is anticipated to push off the coast some time in the
afternoon, though the bulk of the cooler/drier air should lag behind
it. While the FROPA timing introduces some uncertainty with respect
to temperatures, on the whole daytime conditions should be fairly
warm, generally in the 70s to lower 80s across the area. A few
showers and the stray storm or two cannot be completely ruled out
along the front itself, but otherwise most of SE Texas should stay
dry. Cooler, drier and breezy conditions should settle in tonight
with early morning lows for Sunday ranging from the upper 30s inland
to lower 50s along the coast.

Sunday will start off breezy, but winds should start to ease down
throughout the day as surface high pressure fills in over the state.
Highs are currently anticipated to top out in the 60s during the
daytime, dropping overnight to the 30s/upper 40s early Monday
morning. Afternoon RH should drop to around 20-30% across most of
the area during the afternoon on Sunday with surface winds around 10-
15 mph with higher gusts. As a result, some areas may experience
elevated to near critical fire weather conditions on Sunday and
Monday as well. Winds should generally be lighter on Monday, under
10 mph, though RH values are anticipated to fall to 15-20% inland
during the afternoon.

High pressure should move off to the SE CONUS on Tuesday, allowing
onshore flow to return. This will usher in a gradual warming period
through mid week as highs climb to the 70s/80s with morning lows in
the 50s/60s. Long range guidance suggest that another cold front
will push through the area late in the week, around Thursday
night/Friday, bringing another cool down into the next weekend.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 528 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Tonight will be similar to last night with expanding IFR to LIFR
conditions for much of the region. Currently, VFR conditions
remain in place for much of the region with some few to scattered
low clouds in place with ceilings around 5000-6000ft, with the
exception of GLS where LIFR conditions remained through the day
today. Expecting lowering ceilings to IFR conditions (around
600-800ft) between 3-5z for IAH southwards, then up through CXO
and UTS by 6-9z. Conditions will crash down to LIFR conditions
with CIGs near 200-400ft within an hour or two after dropping to
IFR. Patchy, but dense, fog will also be a possibility through
the night into the early morning hours of tomorrow. CLL may be
able to stay at MVFR levels through the night, but a period of IFR
conditions due to ceilings will be possible between 8-10z.

A cold front is expected to pass through the area during the day
on Saturday ushering in a northerly wind shift and gradually
improving ceilings. There will be isolated light rain showers
developing ahead of the front along the coast, but coverage will
be limited enough to keep from putting in the TAFs. FROPA will
happen at CLL around 10-13z, at IAH between 13-15z, and then off
the coast by 15-18z. CIGs will improve to MVFR levels (around
1500ft) within 2-3 hours post front, and then to VFR level (few to
scattered low clouds still possible, but mostly mid- level clouds
remaining). Expecting VFR conditions returning to all of the area
between 21-00z.

Northwesterly winds around 10-15kt with gusts to 20-25kt are
expected to develop during the afternoon hours across much of the
region. The winds gusts should end by sunset for most areas
expect the coast (GLS) where the gusty winds will prevail into
Sunday morning.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1219 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Areas of sea fog are expected this morning, but should begin to
clear out after sunrise. May see some pockets of dense sea fog
linger a tad longer over the nearshore waters, especially near
Galveston, but again this should ease up heading into the afternoon
as a cold front pushes off the coast. Stronger northerly winds
should develop behind the front tonight, reaching 25-30 knots with
higher gusts near gale offshore. Seas could reach 6-10 feet with
negative tide levels in the bays to as low as -0.5 ft MLLW. Gale
Watches remain in effect this evening through early Sunday. Winds
decrease throughout Sunday into early Monday with onshore flow
resuming on Tuesday.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  75  41  63  38 /  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  80  48  64  42 /  20   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  74  51  62  48 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ214-
     236>238-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335-
     350-355.

     Gale Watch from this evening through late tonight for GMZ330-335-
     350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion