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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

648
FXUS64 KHGX 091135
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably hot conditions will continue today as daytime highs
  will be in the mid 90s with heat indices reaching the triple
  digits.

- Lower chances of rain today. Isolated to scattered seabreeze
  showers and thunderstorms are possible closer to the coast.

- Deep Gulf moisture will arrive Friday morning causing rain
  chances to increase Friday and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

This morning, a mid level trough lingers over the southeast part
of Texas. This trough will continue to interact with the routine
summertime sea breeze. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
possible; however, there will likely be lower overall coverage
than we saw on Wednesday due to a decrease in moisture with drier
air situated behind the trough axis. Daytime highs will be in the
mid 90s with 20-30% chance of rain along and south of I-10...lower
further inland.

Tonight, remnant showers and storms will begin to die off as the
area begins to cool. Overnight temperatures will be in the upper
70s with S/SE winds.

Friday and into the weekend, an inverted trough will track
westward and inland across Mexico and the Southern Texas coast.
South to southeasterly flow will continue and deeper moisture
will return. This surge of higher moisture will likely allow for
scattered coastal showers/storms in the mornings, transitioning inland
during the day. With PW`s in the 2.1-2.4" range throughout the
weekend into early next week, rain chances increase to 30-70%.
There`s no significant focusing mechanisms in terms of a widespread
flooding potential, but cannot rule out some localized heavy
downpours from time-to-time considering the tropical airmass.

Heading into the early and middle parts of next week, an expansive
mid level ridge will take shape across the cntl US. We`ll be on its
southern periphery and subject to a parade of westward moving
disturbances tracking westward underneath it...with continued
daily chances of rainfall.

Seasonal summer heat continues as maximum temperatures will be in
the mid to upper 90s today and heat index values ranging from
100-106F over the weekend. Vulnerable populations should take
proper safety precautions by wearing light weight clothing,
drinking plenty of water, and taking frequent breaks. With the
increase in clouds and periodic rainfall, readings will likely
taper down closer to near normal this weekend and next week, or
even slightly below normal on the higher coverage rain days.

LDavis/47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Latest satellite and radar imagery show generally quiet conditions
across the forecast area, with VFR prevailing at most TAF sites.
Patchy fog is on going across the region with KCXO briefly dropping
down to IFR conditions. A couple of ASOS stations across the region
show MVFR conditions as well. That said, most sites around the
region remain at or above 7 mils this morning. Still kept the
possibility for some visibilities down to 6 miles for a few sites
this morning, with KCXO reflecting MVFR conditions.

A SAL intrusion is expected today, which should put a lid on shower
and thunderstorm potential this afternoon and evening. However, some
isolated showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze can not be
ruled out. Winds look to remain light to gentle out of the SW/S
through tonight. Convective Allowing Models are starting to show a
cloud deck building in towards the end of IAH`s 12z TAF period. It
is too early to tell if cigs will support MVFR conditions, but an
increase in sky conditions appears likely over the next couple of
TAF cycles.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

With a fairly long fetch of onshore winds in the 12-17kt range
setting up in the coming days and through the weekend, we should
see the current 2 foot seas bump up a bit...closer to 3-4ft. Rain
chances increase Friday into early next week as deeper tropical
moisture moves into the area. Mariners should anticipate
scattered, to occasionally numerous, showers/tstms during the late
night through early afternoon hours on a daily basis. Winds and
seas will be higher in and near any stronger storms.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  97  76  95  78 /  10  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)  96  79  94  79 /  30  10  30  20
Galveston (GLS)  90  84  90  85 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LDavis
AVIATION...Williams
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion