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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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752
FXUS64 KHGX 311702
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1202 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to widely scattered showers today, especially along and
  east of I-45.

- Dry and warmer conditions expected Sunday into Monday.

- Cold front showers/thunderstorms on Tuesday. A few heavier
  thunderstorms possible. Autumn-like air behind the front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Southeast Texas once again finds itself in a soupy atmosphere,
with PWATs averaging ~1.70" areawide. Sfc dew points are
primarily in the low 70s, with afternoon temperatures likely
warming into the low 80s in most spots. It is a tropical airmass
for your Halloween this year. Unlike yesterday, we do not have a
robust synoptic system to provide large-scale lift. Nor do we have
any meaningful shortwaves to provide lift. However, we do have a
weak, southward drifting boundary along with diurnal forcings that
should suffice for isolated to scattered shower activity. We used
an NBM/HRRR/Global Deterministic blend to give us our ~30-40 PoPs
(primarily along and east of I-45). PoPs are lower, but not non-
existent, farther west, averaging 15-25% along the Brazos River.

The water vapor rich atmosphere will only allow for minimal
cooling overnight. Sunset temperatures are expected to average in
the mid/upper 70s. By midnight, temperatures are expected to range
from the low 70s south of I-10 and w/in the urban heat island, to
upper 60s elsewhere. Not a bad temperature range for Halloween
festivities. The first two days of November (Sunday / Monday) are
looking quite warm and humid, with afternoon temperatures
averaging in the mid 80s inland, and around 80 at the coast.

A very active subtropical jet pattern is evident on water vapor
imagery. A deep trough extends over the Pacific well west of
California and Mexico. A strong, moist, diffluent sub-tropical jet
ahead of the trough is pushing deep tropical moisture in the
direction of SW CONUS. Meanwhile, a strong mid/upper low is diving
southward over the Pacific Northwest. The two features should
phase together over western CONUS on Sunday-Monday. The
subtropical jet will infuse the system with tropical moisture in
the mid/upper levels, while deep LL flow from the Gulf will surge
sfc tropical moisture northward over central CONUS. The Texas
atmosphere should start to feel the lift from this system as it
ejects eastward from the Rockies, with LL lee-side cyclogenesis
expected over the plains.

The set up described above is a heavy rain and severe thunderstorm
red flag. But if the current guidance has anything to say about
it, the overall synoptic dynamics are more likely to favor
severe thunderstorms to the north of our region. The Storm
Prediction Center (SPC) is showing a Level 2 of 5 risk of severe
weather over portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, and north Texas on
Monday. But if you peer at the SPC convective outlook map, you`ll
notice that a Level 1 of 5 risk is in effect over portions of
central and western Texas down to the Mexico border on Monday.
This is because the convergence along the trailing cold front
coupled with an increasingly sheared environment should suffice
for at least some deep convection along the boundary. Thus, we`ll
have to monitor this front closely as it pushes into southeast
Texas on Tuesday We think we`ll at least see a broken line of
showers and thunderstorms push through the area on Tuesday. But we
cannot rule out a few stronger thunderstorms capable of damaging
wind gusts.

The air mass behind the front looks beautiful, with highs in the
70s and lows mostly in the 50s. Our northern zones and rural cold
spots are likely to dip into the 40s. Autumn should make a
comeback in the front`s wake.

Self



&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAF Amendment)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

IFR/MVFR will linger into the early afternoon before becoming
mostly VFR through the rest of today. Isolated to widely scattered
SHRA is likely near the coast and east of I-45. Confidence in SHRA
is too low to mention in many of the TAFs. But keep in mind that
we do expect some shower activity today. Couldn`t rule out an iso
TSRA near the coast, where shallow convection has developed in the
vicinity of Galveston Bay during the late morning hours. Winds
should remain light, and become more NE or N at times.

There is increasing concern for IFR/LIFR cigs and vis overnight,
especially after 05-07 UTC, at all terminals. The best chance of
LIFR appears to be during the 08-13 UTC time frame. These low
cigs/vis could remain resilient well into the morning and
possibly into midday tomorrow.

Self


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Generally light easterly flow is expected through the weekend. A
few isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected today. By
Monday, winds veer southeasterly and start to increase, with
moderately southerly winds ahead of an approaching cold front on
Tuesday. The front pushes offshore by Tuesday afternoon or
evening. Showers and thunderstorms are expected along and just
ahead of the front. A locally stronger thunderstorm capable of 40+
knot gusts are possible. Gusty northwest winds are likely behind
the front late Tuesday into Wednesday. Our current forecast shows
15-25 knot NW winds and 3-5 foot Gulf seas. However, winds and
seas can sometimes over perform, especially when ocean
temperatures remain on the warm side (mid/upper 70s). So we cannot
rule out having to revise winds and seas upwards, especially if
temperatures behind the front are looking a little colder.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  65  84  66  85 /  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  68  83  69  83 /  10  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  71  79  72  81 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion