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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

316
FXUS64 KHGX 181748
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1248 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

- Continued hot conditions w/ a daily risk of isolated to widely
  scattered showers and storms over the next few days.

- Pattern expected to become more active next week, with a better
  chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are beginning to appear on the
radar scope compliments of daytime heating. Look for more of the
same the next couple days along with temps continuing to run about
5F above seasonable norms.

Low level flow becomes more southeasterly later this weekend. As
such, we`ll see some deeper Gulf moisture begin making its way
back into the region. Corresponding rain chances will gradually
increase - first from the metro area southward on Sunday,
followed by the remainder of the region next week. Most activity
should be diurnally driven, though we`ll need to keep an eye
upstream for any embedded shortwaves in the nw flow aloft that
could potentially trigger tstm activity at off times. Deterministic
guidance is still pointing that direction, but timing/details are
a touch more inconsistent than what we were looking at in the 12z
runs yesterday. So, will continue to broadbrush the blended POPs
in the forecast for now until things get narrowed down. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

Some patchy fog has developed at CXO this morning, but this should
dissipate within the next hour or so as the sun rises. Then,
another day of VFR conditions and southeasterly winds of 6-10kt
is expected. There is a slight chance of showers and storms this
afternoon/early evening, with the greatest chances south of I-10.
The storms today are expected to be isolated, so the likelihood
of a storm developing over a terminal is low and thus have opted
to continue the PROB30s for IAH and terminals southwards. And
while a storm may not directly impact a terminal, outflow winds
may result in brief gustier, more variable winds. Once the sun
sets, activity is expected to wane. VFR conditions are expected to
persist through the night for most areas, but could see some
patchy fog again at CXO.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

East to southeast winds 7-15kt and 2-4 ft seas should continue
over the next several days along with a daily risk of isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. A more predominate southeast
wind direction will emerge later this weekend along with a gradual
increase in speeds, seas and rain chances into next week. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  71  94  70  94 /  20  20   0   0
Houston (IAH)  73  94  72  93 /  20  20   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  79  89  79  88 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion