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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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063
FXUS64 KHGX 051824
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
124 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms possible Wednesday.
  Isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out.

- Higher chance of showers/thunderstorms Thursday and Friday as
  the next storm system approaches the area. Locally heavy
  rainfall possible.

- Some uncertainty regarding whether Saturday`s weather. It is
  possible that the showers and storms could linger into the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Mid/upper level water vapor imagery shows a large mid/upper low
roughly centered over Southern California. Ahead of the low is an
enhanced and increasingly amplified mid/upper jet over NW Mexico
and SW CONUS. Moisture from the Tropical Pacific is being advected
along the jet into SW and central CONUS, helping to bring some of
the higher level cloud cover you see in the skies above you
today. In the lower levels, deep southerly flow is pushing high
dew points and enhanced PWATs into east Texas from the Gulf,
thanks to an enhanced LL gradient brought to you by a low pressure
system over Oklahoma. The low`s associated cold front, currently
situated over the TX Panhandle, is surging southward and will
eventually add sfc convergence and lift to the southeast Texas
atmosphere later this week. For us today, expect mostly warm and
humid conditions with perhaps a passing shower. Highs are expected
to warm well into the 80s across portions of the CWA today.

The atmosphere becomes increasingly sheared on Wednesday as the
aforementioned mid/upper low approaches from the west. Sfc-6KM
Bulk Shear is expected to exceed 50 knots by the afternoon hours.
With plentiful LL instability and the presence of a weak sfc
boundary drifting southward (possibly outflow from earlier tstorms
farther north), one might think that severe thunderstorms would
be a problem for the region by Wednesday afternoon. Given the
aforementioned parameters, we will need to watch the radar
carefully Wednesday afternoon in case a few strong to severe
thunderstorms decide to develop. However, there may be too much
dry air aloft to allow for deep convection Wednesday afternoon.
Forecast soundings suggest the air will be quite dry around 700
MB. Therefore, it is no surprise that the CAMs remain unimpressive
regarding deep convective development. That being said, SPC
continues to hold on to a Level 2 of 5 severe weather risk for
our northern counties, while most elsewhere in in a Level 1 of 5.
If the atmosphere can overcome the ML dry, then a few
thunderstorms capable of hail and damaging winds will be possible.



As we head into Thursday and Friday, large scale lift increases as
strong PVA is introduced by the approaching mid/upper low. In
addition, a strong cold front is expected to surge southward,
bringing enhance sfc convergence and added lift. PWATs will be
quite high on Thursday into Friday, especially near the coast.
This should prime the atmosphere for shower and thunderstorm
activity. Given the high PWATs, there is a risk of locally heavy
rainfall and localized flooding on both Thursday and Friday. We`ll
also need to monitor trends for a possible strong to severe
thunderstorm or two. Temperatures should be cooler on
Thursday/Friday, thanks to modest CAA in the front`s wake coupled
with increased cloud cover.

The system departs the region by the weekend, though the exact
timing is somewhat uncertain. If the system moves slow enough,
then showers and storms may linger into Saturday. The return of
onshore flow will bring higher dew points from the Gulf, raising
humidity levels through the weekend. By Sunday, many locations
could be pushing 90 degrees with dew points approaching 70.
Another cold front may arrive by Sunday into Monday, bringing
another chance of showers and thunderstorms.


Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

SCT to BKN CIGs around 2000-3000ft will continue through the mid-
morning hours before VFR becoming predominate across the region.
South-southeasterly winds around 9-13kt with gusts to 20-25kt
possible this afternoon. The southerly winds persists into
tonight, though dropping to 7-10kt. MVFR conditions return to the
region late this evening, between 4-8z, and we may see some SCT
lower clouds around 700ft begin to develop by daybreak Wednesday.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Light to moderate onshore flow and occasionally enhanced swell will
continue through Wednesday night or early Thursday. A frontal
boundary will push offshore Thursday, enhancing shower and
thunderstorm chances on both Thursday and Friday. In addition,
winds will increase from the north to northeast behind the front.
For now, we are thinking winds will remain below Small Craft
Advisory thresholds. However, we cannot rule out sustained winds
reaching above 20 knots Thursday evening / night, especially over
the Gulf. A few thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday could be
heavy.

Light to moderate onshore flow returns over the weekend. The next
frontal boundary may bring another chance of showers and
thunderstorms by late Sunday or Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  73  82  63  72 /   0  50  30  40
Houston (IAH)  75  86  69  77 /   0  50  30  60
Galveston (GLS)  76  83  73  79 /   0  10  10  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 PM CDT this evening
     for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion