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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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777
FXUS64 KHGX 301130
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate heat risk will continue today and persist each day
through Thursday. Peak heat index values between 102-107F (39-42C).

- Moderate to major heat will be possible Friday and into the
  Fourth of July weekend. Peak heat index values between 105-110F
  (40-43C).

- High rip current risk will continue along area beaches until this
morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Current conditions are generally quiet across the area. Nighttime
Microphysics Imagery shows a little bit of haze across southeast
Texas this morning. Only minor visibility reductions down to 8 miles
have been noted across the observation sites in our forecast area.
SAL may linger into the morning hours and lead to some visibility
reductions, but overall, concentration amounts look to be less than
what had been seen the past couple of days.

The upper level ridge that has brought hot and dry weather to the
region will begin to shift northeast today. This will allow for a
few weak impulsed to round the southern periphery of the ridge into
our region. This will be accompanied by an increase in moisture
moving in from the Gulf. Latest guidance has been to shift the plume
of higher moisture into southeast Texas with both the latest GFS and
ECMWF showing PWATs surpassing 2.00 inches Thursday afternoon. For
now, shower coverage is expected to remain isolated through
Wednesday night. As the moisture plume moves into our region on
Thursday shower coverage looks to increase to scattered (25-40%)
along and south of I-10. If guidance continues to trend towards
richer moisture further west, rain chances may need to be increased
for the southern half of the forecast area for Thursday over the
next couple of days.

Heat continues to be the main concern with this forecast package.
Little change in temperature is expected through Thursday night with
highs in the mid 90s and lows ranging from mid to upper 70s. The
heat risk looks to remain moderate through Thursday with peak heat
indices generally expected to remain below advisory criteria between
102-107 during the afternoon hours. Concerns for major heat risk
increase Friday and through the weekend. Highs will be in the mid to
upper 90s with lows generally in the upper 70s. Heat indices look to
range between 105-110, which would near or above Heat Advisory
criteria for much of the Houston area. The potential for hazardous
heat will be closely monitored with it being the Fourth of July
on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Brief periods of MVFR remain possible through mid/late morning
(13-15Z) as very patchy low level stratus and residual haze from
Saharan dust fill the air. Thereafter, VFR is expected to prevail
through much of the daytime and into the evening. Still expecting
a few isolated showers and storms this afternoon as the sea-breeze
tries to get going. Kept the mention of precipitation out of the
TAFs at this time due to low probabilities (20% or lower). South
to southeast winds will persist through the period, with sustained
wind speeds generally below 15 knots. However, a few gusts up to
20 knots remains possible, especially by mid/late afternoon.
Patchy low level stratus will once again occur late tonight and
overnight, with intermittent VFR/MVFR conditions at a few sites into
early Wednesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Light to moderate southerly winds will continue through tonight
before falling to light on Wednesday. Winds look to briefly shift to
the southeast on Thursday before becoming more southerly on Friday.
Seas will generally be 2 to 3 feet through the week. Low rain
chances this morning will increase into the medium range through the
week, peaking Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  94  76  95  76 /   0  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  94  78  95  78 /  10   0  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  89  83  89  82 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...Mejia
MARINE...Williams

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion