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041
FXUS64 KHGX 022252
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
552 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms brought 1-3" of rain
  across portions of the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region this
  morning.

- Daily chances of scattered showers and isolated
  thunderstorms with the greatest chances late Saturday into
  Sunday as a cold front moves into/through the area.

- Unseasonably warm weather persists through Saturday, then the
  cold front ushers in cooler, more seasonal temperatures by
  Sunday and extending into early next week.

- Risk of moderate to strong rip currents today into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Widespread showers and thunderstorms occurred over the Brazos
Valley and Piney Woods region earlier today as a weak disturbance
slide across the region. Rainfall totals through 2pm shows a
swath of 1-3" from Burleson up through Houston County, and then
around 0.1-0.5" between Conroe and Huntsville, and less than 0.1"
south of Conroe. Some isolated thunderstorms will continue
through the rest of the afternoon, but overall activity appears to
be waning. Rain chances will then be low through Friday, though
some isolated streamer showers may develop during the late morning
and afternoon hours as onshore flow increases moistures across
the region.

Our next chance of rain arrives Saturday as a cold front begins to
move through the area, increasing moisture (PWATs up to 1.8" by
the afternoon hours) across the area. Widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will be possible by late Saturday morning,
increasing in coverage through the afternoon/evening as the front
begins to slides through the region. The cold front is expected
to slowly pass through the region through Sunday morning, and then
possibly stalling along the coast for a period of time on Sunday.
Lingering showers and storms may be possible south of I-10
through Sunday morning or afternoon as passing disturbances aloft
redevelop activity along the front. An isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm is also possible Saturday into Saturday night, with
wind gusts being the primary concern (SPC has a Marginal Risk for
Severe Thunderstorms (level 1 of 5) for Saturday for most of SE
Texas). WPC maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for
excessive rainfall across all of SE Texas for Saturday into
Saturday night as localized downpours fueled by the increased
moisture becomes possible. Areas that saw the heaviest rainfall
today (Brazos Valley/Piney Woods) may have a greater risk of minor
urban and small stream flooding on Saturday/Saturday night if
those downpours occur over the same areas. High pressure
eventually moves in behind the cold front, pushing the stalled
cold front out of the region Sunday night. Rain chances then
remain minimal through at least midweek next week.

High temperatures will remain in the low to mid 80s through
Friday across with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Saturday
will be a transition day as the cold front slides through the
region, and temperatures will largely be dependent on the timing
of the cold front. As of now, looks like areas along and south of
I-10 will have enough heating during the day to bring temperatures
up to the low to mid 80s on Saturday, while areas to the north
will likely stay in the upper 70s. A slower cold front would mean
warmer temperatures around the region, and a faster front would
cool afternoon high temperatures by a few degrees. Overnight low
temperatures Saturday night will be down into the mid 50s to low
60s for much of the region as cooler air filters in behind the
front. High temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s are expected
Sunday and Monday, then a gradual warm-up is expected through the
remainder of the week with highs in the mid 70s by Tuesday, upper
70s on Wednesday, and then back into the low 80s by Thursday or
Friday. While overnight lows will remain on the chillier side
Sunday night with temperatures down into the low to mid 50s across
the region, Monday night will be the coolest night of the week
thanks to clearing skies and light winds with overnight lows down
into the mid to upper 40s for areas north and west of the Houston
Metro. An increase in overnight temperatures are then expected
through the remainder of the week rising from 50s on Tuesday
night, upper 50s to low 60s Wednesday night, and then mid 60s by
Thursday night.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 552 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Convective activity has dissipated, but gusty southeasterly winds
will persist through the evening. MVFR ceilings will begin filling
in from the south near or just after sunset from south to north
and encompass all of Southeast TX by 06Z/Friday. Winds remain
elevated overnight, so the potential for fog is slim to none.
There is potential for intermittent periods of IFR ceilings
especially south of I-10 early Friday morning. Reduced ceilings
last into the late morning/early afternoon hours before lifting to
VFR as southeasterly winds pick up once again with gusts near 25
kt through the afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers are
expected to develop around 15Z/Friday...the greatest confidence is
south of I-10 and along/east of the I-45 corridor. The coverage
looks to be rather sporadic though, so this has been covered with
PROB30`s for now. Look for another round of IFR/MVFR ceilings
Friday evening.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Onshore flow will persist through Saturday. While the onshore
winds are light this afternoon (around 10-15kt), there will be an
increase overnight to around 15-20kt tonight into Friday resulting
in a need for small craft to exercise caution. Some gusts to 25kt
will be possible in the coastal waters late tonight into Friday
afternoon. Seas will remain between 3-5ft, occasionally 6ft,
through Saturday.

A cold front is expected to slowly push through the coastal waters
late Saturday night through Sunday morning ushering in moderate to
strong northeasterly winds in it`s wake that persists through
Monday morning. The elevated winds will also lead to building seas
to 5-8ft. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed by sunrise
Sunday and continue into Monday morning for the bays, and then
Monday afternoon for the coastal waters as seas are slow to fall.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of and
along the cold front beginning Saturday evening and continuing
through Sunday afternoon as the front is slow to exit the waters.

There will also be a moderate to high risk of strong rip currents
through at least Saturday thanks to the persist onshore winds.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  70  85  70  79 /   0  10  30  90
Houston (IAH)  72  84  73  82 /   0  30  10  80
Galveston (GLS)  72  79  72  79 /   0  30  10  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Friday morning for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Fowler

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion