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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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568
FXUS64 KHGX 170640
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1240 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog through through the early morning hours, and then
  possible redevelopment tonight into Wednesday morning.

- Dry conditions with a gradual warming trend are expected through much
  of the work-week. By mid-week readings may flirt with near
  record highs at some locations.

- Rain chances low during the work week. Maybe some slight increases
  heading into Saturday in advance of another Pacific front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Ridging aloft and southerly winds at the surface will lead to
warming weather through the work week. Afternoon high temperatures
today will rise into the mid to upper 70s, and then into the upper
70s to low 80s on Wednesday. A boundary will approach, then stall
near the I-35 corridor Thursday into Friday which will strengthen
WAA across SE Texas leading to high temperatures into the low to
mid-80s. A passing upper-level disturbance with associated
Pacific-based cold front may pass through the area Saturday or
Sunday, bringing a cool down to near seasonal weather for the
weekend.

Main forecast concern over the next few days will be the potential
for patchy to areas of fog/low clouds to develop nightly through
at least midweek. Any fog that develops will scatter out by the
mid- morning hours giving way to mostly sunny conditions for the
afternoon. SE Texas will remain rain-free through mid-week, then
some streamer showers will be possible Thursday/Friday as daytime
heating and increasing moisture come into play. Shower activity is
also possible with the passage of the weekend cold front, but
coverage is looking minimal at this time.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1011 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

The forecast for tonight into tomorrow morning continues to
feature a MVFR (IFR in some areas) cloud deck that pushes in from
the east and south. However, there is growing uncertainty
regarding the timing of arrival of sub-VFR conditions. In the 06Z
update, we are opting to not significantly change the TAFs. The
current forecast leans more on a blend of short-range forecast
soundings. But some of our data is suggesting that lower cigs
could take longer to build in. In some cases. this data suggests
that MVFR/IFR conditions won`t occur until almost dawn. Therefore,
be advised the amendments will likely occur if the MVFR cloud deck
over the Gulf takes longer to spread north and west.

For Tuesday, expected increasing south to south-southeast winds
late morning into the afternoon. Sustained winds may approach 15
knots with gusts over 20 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1215 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Onshore winds around 10-15kt will prevail through this week with
seas around 2-4ft today, and then 3-5ft beginning Wednesday. There
may be occasional higher gusts to near 20kt during the overnight
periods in the offshore waters tonight and Wednesday night. A weak
front may slide through the coastal waters this weekend bringing a
northwesterly wind shift, but forecast confidence is low on
exactly when this front moves through.

Will need to monitor the potential for some patchy fog the next
few nights. Increasing winds and ocean temperatures will limit the
potential over the waters, but inland fog may spill out into the
northern parts of the Bays during the predawn hours.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  54  78  62  81 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  56  77  63  81 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  60  71  63  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Fowler

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion