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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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410
FXUS64 KHGX 221744
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1244 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions expected through early next week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over the next
  couple of days.

- Potential change to a wetter pattern by the end of the month.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Today continues our warm and dry trend, as ridging sits over us
near the surface and into the mid/upper-levels. Expect clear to
partly cloudy skies, with inland highs in the low-mid 80s and
coastal highs in the upper 70s-low 80s. Overnight lows will mostly
be in the 50s, with urban and coastal locations seeing lows in
the 60s. Friday and Saturday will be more of the same, with
daytime highs and nighttime lows gradually getting warmer.

Delving a bit further into the synoptic setup for this weekend and
the first half of next week, long-range guidance shows a surface
high moving toward the US East Coast from Canada. A NE-SW ridge axis
gradually digs its way toward our CWA, bringing a few notable
changes to our weather. As the pressure gradient tightens, winds
pick up out of the E/ESE starting Saturday afternoon, with nearshore
and offshore locations hovering near Small Craft thresholds. These
winds, in combination with a long easterly fetch providing elevated
seas, may make Small Craft Advisories necessary this weekend and
early next week. This pattern will also bring with it slightly
cooler air, bringing daytime highs for Sunday-Wednesday down a bit
toward the low-mid 80s.

Looking beyond Wednesday and closer to Halloween, long-range
guidance continues to suggest a turn towards a wetter pattern.
Global and AI ensembles continue to be bullish with increasing
moisture and a more active subtropical jet. Temperature wise, the
long range signals remain mixed, with data skewing warming than
normal but with some conflicting signs both in the teleconnections
and even among some of the ensemble members.


JMG / Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

VFR to prevail through the TAF period. Light ENE winds in the
early afternoon should veer ESE to SE by late afternoon, before
becoming light and variable this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Winds will generally average from the east through early next
week. Expect winds to be light to moderate through Friday, before
gradually increasing on Saturday. By late Saturday or early
Sunday, winds may reach Small Craft Advisory criteria offshore due
to a strengthening easterly fetch of winds that will stretch
across the Gulf from Florida to Texas. This will also result in a
gradual increase in seas over the weekend. By Monday, offshore
seas could peak near 8 feet. This will depend on the exact
orientation of the fetch. If winds are more northeasterly, then
offshore seas may only peak 5-6 feet. But an east or east-
southeast fetch could easily result in 7-8 foot seas offshore.

Winds and seas should improve as we head into Tuesday and
Wednesday of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  56  85  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  58  86  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  68  83  73  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JMG / Self
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion