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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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351
FXUS64 KHGX 252307
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
607 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly drier conditions remain over the area through Monday.

- Weak upper level disturbances and increasing Gulf moisture will
  bring low-end chances for showers/storms Tuesday onward.

- Moderate onshore winds and building seas will result in Caution
  conditions over the marine waters through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

An upper ridge remains in place across SE TX this afternoon.
Meanwhile, we continue to remain under the influence of a large
surface high over the southeastern states which is ridging
westward across Texas. Another surge of drier air at the low
levels is moving in from the east today, with dewpoints down to
the 50s area wide this hour. Temperatures are also running
slightly cooler compared to the last couple of days.

Drier air will continue over most of SE TX through Monday
with PWs of 0.5 to 1.0 inch, below normal for this time of year.
Did adjust NBM surface dewpoints significantly lower
tonight/Monday blending in the HRRR solution. Mins tonight will
drop to the mid 50s to lower 60s inland, upper 60s to lower 70s
coast. This new surge of drier air will be short-lived.

The subtropical jet will become more active with a series of weak
upper level shortwaves passing across Texas this coming week. As a
result, the upper ridge that has been over the area the last
several days will begin to shift eastward and flatten out early
this coming week. The first of the shortwaves will move across
the southern Plains Mon night/Tuesday. Deeper moisture will return
to the middle TX coast region starting Monday night with PWs
increasing to around 1.6 inches which is above the climatological
norm (1.1-1.25 inches). This deeper moisture will spread further
east and inland Tuesday/Tue night. Will have slight chance to
chance POPs in the forecast southwest half of the area Tuesday and
most areas Wednesday. QPF does not look that impressive with
probabilities in the ensemble solutions of 0.5 inch or more of
QPF in 24 hours running 30-40 percent.

We should see a brief period of drying/lower PWs again Thursday in
the wake of the first shortwave exiting the southern Plains. A
more robust surge of low level moisture will return to the area
starting Friday and lasting through early next week with surface
winds veering to the south and southeast as well. PWs will
increase to 1.8-2.0 inches. Surface dewpoints will climb into the
upper 60s to mid 70s area wide this weekend resulting in very
muggy/humid conditions. Temps will climb to above normal levels as
well, with max temps around 10 degrees above normal and min temps
around 15 degrees above normal. Will have low POPs blanketed
across SE TX Friday onward as weak shortwaves pass across TX and
deep moisture remaining in place. The majority of GFS/EC ensemble
solutions show light QPF next weekend, but probabilities of an
inch or more in 24 hours are running only 5-10% right now.
Ensemble guidance trends cooler with temps next week, however
there is still no solid agreement on a the timing of either a
significant front or a significant rainfall event.

If it seems like it`s been dry lately, well it has been. A couple
of examples: only 0.02 inch of rain has fallen at IAH since
October 2nd, and only 0.03 inch of rain has fallen at CLL since
October 4th. The majority of SE TX is in moderate to severe
drought, with the coastal counties and western zones most heavily
impacted.

35/Moreland

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Breezy E/SE winds will become light and variable this evening. High
clouds overnight should inhibit cooling and limit fog development.
Cannot completely rule out some patches early Monday morning at
fog-prone sites likes KCXO, though any FL impacts should be brief
and limited. Breeze E/SE winds develop once again Monday morning.
VFR conditions dominate throughout the TAF period.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Moderate easterly flow will continue over the coastal waters
through early next week in response to the large surface high over
the southeastern states. We will keep the Caution flags in place
with winds of 15-20 knots expected and seas 3-5 feet, possibly
reaching 6 feet over the far offshore waters. Will need to monitor
trends closely and may need to bump up to an Advisory if the
winds or seas trend upward. Little change is expected through
midweek. Toward the end of the week, winds will veer more to the
southeast, with both winds and seas subsiding somewhat.

Expect isolated to scattered showers and t-storms each day through
the coming week as moisture increases. Locally higher winds/seas
could occur.

35/Moreland

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  56  83  61  81 /   0   0  10  20
Houston (IAH)  61  84  64  82 /   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  70  79  71  79 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late Monday night
     for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...03
MARINE...35

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion