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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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976
FXUS64 KHGX 261115
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
515 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very cold temperatures and hazardous wind chills expected for
  your Monday morning commute. Lingering icy spots this morning will
  warrant cautious driving, especially in our northern and
  western counties.

- A warming trend is expected through Thursday. However, another
  hard freeze is likely Monday night, with lighter freezes across
  much of the region on Tuesday and Wednesday night.

- Strong cold front expected Friday. We will need to monitor hard
  freeze potential for the weekend. Too early to pin down exact
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1035 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

The rest of tonight promises to be very cold, blustery, and
mostly cloudy. We can expect a widespread hard freeze and wind
chills as low as 5 to 15 degrees through the night and into Monday
morning, yielding to a very cold morning commute. Venturing out
on Monday morning will require dressing in layers and being
mindful of potential icy spots on roads (particularly in our
northern and western counties). Forecasting the exact lows tonight
is a tad trickier than normal given the clouds and weakening CAA.
Current forecast lows range from the mid/upper 10s in our
northern counties to low/mid 20s in our southern and coastal
counties. But enough clearing or a tad more CAA could knock those
temps down a few more degrees, while thicker clouds and less CAA
could yield morning temps a few degrees higher. Regardless, it`s
frigid out there!

Fortunately, I have some good news! We expect more sunshine on
Monday, which will warm temperatures to above freezing for the
vast majority of the CWA. It may take southern and coastal
counties until late morning before being blessed by the sun`s
presence. Many locations near and south of I-10 could make a run
for the 40 degree mark. Some of our northern zones may only warm
to or slightly above freezing. Strong sfc high pressure and clear
skies will allow for efficient radiational cooling Monday night.
The only wild card will be the gradual introduction of mid/upper
level (500-300mb) Pacific moisture that may attempt to throw some
thin clouds our way. For now, I`m assuming clear skies. Cold rural
spots are expected to drop well down into the 10s. For the City
of Houston, lows could be as cold as the mid/upper 10s in some
outer suburbs to mid 20s in the heart of the heat island. Mid 20s
to low 30s expected near the coast. Despite the very cold
forecast temperatures Monday night into Tuesday, we may
technically remain above Extreme Cold Warning criteria. Therefore,
we will need to revisit the warning in future updates. Expect
"warmer" conditions on Tuesday. But by "warmer" I mean afternoon
temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s. And remember that 500-300
MB moisture? We`ll have to see if more clouds end up throwing a
wrench on our high temperature forecast.

We continue to expect a general warming trend through Thursday.
But another strong cold front could be in the cards by week`s end,
with some potential for more sub-freezing temperatures by the
weekend. The front is forecast to bring a chance of rain on
Friday. It`s too early to determine how cold temperatures will
be over the weekend. But a hard freeze is on the table for parts
of SE Texas. We`ll know more as the week progresses.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 515 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

MVFR ceilings to start the morning, but cloud cover will be on a
decreasing trend from north to south going into the early
afternoon. Northern terminals are clearing out early this morning
(~12Z), the Houston metro areas are expected to clear out around
16-18Z, and coastal terminals are expected to clear out around
18-20Z. Breezy northerly winds prevail throughout the day with
sustained winds in the 10-15 kt range with 20-25 kt gusts. Winds
will trend towards light and variable after sunset and prevail
into Tuesday.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1035 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Strong north to northwest winds, choppy to rough bay waters, and
6-10 ft Gulf seas will likely keep marine conditions hazardous
through the rest of today. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect
through the rest of the day on Monday. Winds and seas should
gradually taper starting later today, becoming much lighter by
Tuesday. Water levels are expected to be problematically low
during low tide on Monday, Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday. The
lowest levels are expected to occur in upper bays, where levels
could drop 1 to 1.5 feet below MLLW. Lower bays and the beaches
could approach 1 foot below MLLW. A strong cold front could is
expected to bring hazardous winds and seas by week`s end. Some
uncertainty regarding the strength of the winds. But at the very
least, expect Small Craft Advisory level conditions by Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1220 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Record low temperatures:

January 26:
Houston Intercontinental (IAH): 23 (1943)
Houston Hobby (HOU): 24(1940)
Galveston (GLS): 25 (1940)
Palacios (PSX): 30 (1961)

January 27:
Houston Intercontinental (IAH): 19 (1897)
Houston Hobby (HOU): 18 (1940)
Galveston (GLS): 21 (1897)
Palacios (PSX): 29 (1976)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  34  15  42  21 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  39  23  49  28 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  41  35  51  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for TXZ163-164-
     176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
     436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ330-335.

     Low Water Advisory until 3 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ350-355-
     370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion