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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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491
FXUS64 KHGX 261045
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
545 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat building this week with temperatures in the upper
  90s/100s and heat indices of 104-112F. Heat Advisories likely at
  times during the upcoming work week.

- Patchy fog possible during the early to mid-morning hours for at
  least the next few days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

To give y`all an idea of what`s up ahead over the next several
days: today was the "coolest" day of the forecast period, and we
had high temperatures in the low to mid 90s. The City of Houston
has only had one day above 100 degrees so far this year...and we
have pretty high confidence that we`ll be adding onto that next
week. The 596-598 dam mid-level high (AKA the heatdome) has nudged
a bit eastward from yesterday and is now centered just east of
the Four Corners. It will continue to drift eastward going into
Sunday and early next week, which will pair with 850mb
temperatures increasing to above the 90th percentile and
occasionally approaching the 99th percentile for most of the work
week. That means triple digit heat is on the horizon...and we
haven`t even discussed the humidity part of it yet.

South-southwesterly to southerly surface flow should keep dew points
elevated (low to mid 70s) closer to the coast. Further inland, we
should see dew points mixing down into the upper 60s to low 70s in
the afternoons during the work week. The air temperatures will be
high enough though that we`ll still see heat indices peaking near or
above the Heat Advisory threshold (greater than 108 degrees) at
times next week. Decided to hold off on a Heat Advisory for Sunday
since we won`t see widespread locations reaching criteria...not
entirely ruling out a few spots reaching criteria though. There
won`t be much relief overnight with low temperatures mainly in the
upper 70s to low 80s. The atrocious humidity overnight will result
in occasional rounds of patchy fog in the early to mid morning hours
for at least the next few days. Sunday will feature a slight chance
of rain even in the midst of increasing subsidence. It`ll be a
battle of increasing subsidence versus a team-up of daytime heating,
the sea breeze, an embedded shortwave, and increased moisture just
below the 75th percentile (~2.03"). Not quite as exciting as an
endgame battle, but there`s not much else to talk about other than
the heat so we`re watching with great interest! Destiny arrives all
the same though, because most of us won`t see a drop of rain over
the next several days and will be left to deal with the sweltering
heat.

PW values decrease again closer to the 10th percentile (~1.36")
through at least midweek, so rain chances will be slim to none for
most of the work week. Towards the end of the work week, the
heatdome begins to retreat westward a bit which may open the door
for some isolated convection...but we`re keeping that potential on
the low side for now. Continuing to look towards next weekend for a
return of more sufficient rain chances. Ensemble guidance (both GEFS
and the Euro) have decent agreement on a surface low developing near
the Red River towards the end of the work week. This coincides with
the heatdome retreating westward and an upper level trough drifting
through the eastern CONUS. Does this bring a weak frontal boundary
in the vicinity of our area along with increasing moisture? I can`t
say yes...but I also can`t say no. After what looks to be multiple
100+ degree days in a row, I would gladly take some rain!
Uncertainty is still fairly high with this, so we`ll continue to
monitor trends as the week progresses.

With heat indices expected to be near or above Heat Advisory
criteria as early as Sunday, please keep heat safety at the top of
your minds for any plans that you make (especially if outdoors).
Know the signs of heat-related illnesses, stay hydrated (with
water), take frequent breaks from the heat, wear loose/light-colored
clothing and sunscreen, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS LOOK before you
LOCK your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the
ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for
their paws.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

A fcst of persistence for the most part. Like the past couple
days, we`re seeing some intermittent, patchy MVFR vsby/cigs
across parts of the area...mainly outside the metro terminals.
These should lift by mid morning with VFR conditions generally
prevailing for the remainder of the day until we do it all over
again later tonight. We might see a few light shra dotting some
of the coastal counties this morning. Some of the hires guidance
has shown some consistency showing an isolated cell or two
developing in the IAH/CXO areas between 22-01z, so threw in a
PROB30 there. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

A period of benign marine conditions continues with light to
occasionally moderate southerly/southwesterly winds and 2-4 ft seas
prevailing over the next several days.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  96  76  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  97  78  99  78 /  20  20   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  91  83  92  82 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion