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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

068
FXUS64 KHGX 081913
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
213 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably hot conditions continue. Daytime highs will be in
  the 90s with heat indices in the triple digits.

- Scattered, diurnally driven thunderstorms are expected this
  afternoon and evening. Strong gusty winds, locally heavy
  downpours and frequent lightning are the main risks with the
  strongest storms. Lower, but non- zero, rain chances Thursday.

- A deeper surge of Gulf moisture should arrive Thursday night and
  Friday. Daily chances of showers and storms will continue
  through the weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

A weak mid-level trough axis remains stretched across southeast
Texas, interacting with our typical summertime sea breeze pattern.
Early this afternoon, obs show PW values in the 1.7-1.9 inch range,
and near 2.0 inches closer to the coast. Daytime heating and
sufficient moisture will continue to support isolated to scattered,
diurnally driven sea breeze showers/storms through early this
evening. While dry air aloft is driving decent mixing, any stronger
storms will be capable of producing localized downpours, frequent
lightning and gusty winds (25-45 mph) through the evening hours.

A rinse-and-repeat forecast is expected on Thursday, with isolated
coastal showers/storms in the morning, developing further inland in
the afternoon. However, chances will be lower due to a lack of
moisture.

Heading into Friday and the weekend, an inverted mid-level trough
over the southwestern Gulf and a tightening pressure gradient over
our region will open the gates for a deeper tropical moisture surge.
This deep moisture profile, combined with persistent
weakness/vorticity maxes aloft, will set up the stage for more
scattered to widespread showers and storms (40 to 75%) persisting
into at least mid-week next week.

Seasonal summer heat continues with highs climbing into the mid
90s. Hot conditions paired with persistent southerly to
southwesterly flow, and more Gulf moisture will result in peak
heat indices in the triple digits (100-107F). Temperatures are
progged to be a few degrees cooler next week given higher PoPs.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

A fairly typical summertime TAF pattern is expected through this
cycle. Brief MVFR cigs/vis are possible over the next couple of
hours. Otherwise, VFR prevails through this cycle. Have maintained
the mention of VCSH through the morning for the sites closer to
the coast with PROB30s for TSRA across all terminals through the
afternoon hours as convection is expected along the sea-breeze.
Any storms that develops will likely lead to brief MVFR/IFR
cigs/vis and gusty winds. Convection should wane by 00Z or shortly
after. Winds will become light and variable once again overnight
into Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds (generally from the
south-southwest) and seas between 1 and 3 ft will prevail through
most of the period. However, a tightening pressure gradient will
lead to slightly stronger winds (gusts up to 20 kts at times) and
seas up to 4-5 ft (offshore) late tonight through late Friday. A
typical summer pattern continues with a daily risk of isolated to
scattered morning showers and storms, gradually moving further
inland in the afternoon. The best rain/storm chances arrive Friday
through Saturday and then again in the upcoming week as different
disturbances move through the region.

JM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  97  76  95 /  20  10  10  20
Houston (IAH)  78  96  79  95 /  20  20  10  30
Galveston (GLS)  83  91  82  90 /   0  20  20  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Castillo
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion