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390
FXUS64 KHGX 111757
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1157 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will push through tonight/Thursday morning leading
  to drier weather for the remainder of the work week.

- Rain chances return late this weekend as a couple of upper level
  disturbances push into the region.

- Another cold front pushes through by Monday morning bringing
  another period of cooler, drier weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1157 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

It`s been quite the dreary day so far with low-level clouds and
drizzle/light rain through the morning. I know the first question
y`all have is will this last all day. Well the answer is both yes
and no, but it depends on where you are. A coastal surface trough
remains somewhat nearby along with lingering moisture [PW values
just below the 75th percentile (~1.31")] and lingering PVA from the
tail-end of an upper level trough. As the coastal trough continues
to gradually push offshore, northern areas will begin to see more
and more peeks of sunshine. For those of near and south of I-10,
we`re expecting the dreary conditions to last throughout the
day...but there is good news on the horizon! Before we get to that
though, I should mention that because of the cloud cover persisting
for the previously mentioned areas...I lowered the high temperatures
for today to reflect the low 70s. Honestly, I wouldn`t be surprised
if some areas in the coastal counties stay in the 60s. For the
Brazos Valley/Piney Woods, the peeks of sunshine will help y`all
reach the mid 70s. As far as rain goes, I would be surprised if we
saw anything more than light rain/drizzle for the rest of the day.

Now as the previously mentioned upper level trough (that`s centered
mostly over the northeastern CONUS) dips a little further
southwestward overnight, it`ll push a cold front through Southeast
Texas early Thursday morning. This`ll be a dry frontal passage, but
there will be some rain chances off the coast though. Much drier air
filters in behind this front with PW values dropping to near the
25th percentile (~0.58") by Thursday afternoon...so yep the sun will
come out tomorrow. Tomorrow, tomorrow! High temperatures tomorrow
will top out in the low to mid 70s, then we`ll drop into the 40s/50s
Thursday night. Friday will essentially be a copy and paste
forecast, but there are some synoptic changes worth mentioning.

Going into Friday, a ridge axis will begin sliding in from the west.
This time around, we`re not going to see a subsequent warming trend
though as 850mb temperatures hold steady thanks to an 850mb high
overhead. Going into Saturday afternoon/evening is when things
become a bit interesting. The first of two upper level disturbances
will push into the area from the west leading to an increase in rain
chances mainly for areas west of I-45...it`s still early and that
may change. I`ll go ahead and mention here that the GFS remains the
outlier showing a rather robust MCS Saturday evening...we`ll monitor
trends on that one. WPC has outlined most of the area in a marginal
risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall on Saturday.

The next upper level disturbance pushes through the Four Corners
region on Saturday afternoon leading to surface low development near
the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles. This is important to note because
this places us in the warm sector as this low develops further and
pushes southeastward. There may be an axis of instability, but quite
a bit of uncertainty remains this far out. A cold front will be
associated with this one though, so showers/storms will be possible
ahead of and along the frontal boundary. WPC has outlined all of
Southeast Texas in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall on Sunday.
It`s a little early to focus on exact totals, but I did take a look
at some probabilities! There is a 20-30% probability of rainfall
amounts over 2" for most of the area Saturday/Sunday (24 hr period).
For 3+", the probability is around 10% along the coast. While the
probability is low, it is statistically notable so we`ll continue to
monitor trends.

The cold front looks to push through Sunday night/Monday morning.
Following that front, we`re expecting another period of cooler and
drier conditions that extends into at least the middle of next week.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1157 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Low cigs/vis along and south of I-10 will generally clear out to VFR
conditions throughout this afternoon and evening, before sub-VFR
conditions return during the overnight hours (05Z to 09Z) as
moisture surges ahead of a cold front passage. Low ceilings and fog
will lead to MVFR conditions for KCXO and TAF sites south of it,
with KSGR likely dropping to LIFR as thicker fog develops further
west of I-45. Cigs/vis below MVFR are possible for TAF sites beyond
KSGR, but model confidence is too low to include them currently. VFR
conditions return by 12Z to 14Z tomorrow as dry, northerly winds
follow the cold front passage. Looking further north, KUTS and KCLL
will maintain VFR conditions throughout this TAF cycle. Winds
through tomorrow morning will be calm and VRB, with winds increasing
out of the N at 5-10 kts tomorrow morning.

JMG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1157 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Light to moderate east-northeasterly winds are currently ongoing as
a surface coastal trough remains over the Gulf waters albeit with
only rain showers. Winds will increase and transition to
northeasterly on Thursday morning following the passage of a cold
front. This will likely lead to a period of Caution Flags that
extends into Thursday evening. Benign marine conditions will follow
through Friday night as winds gradually become southeasterly by
Saturday morning.

A tightening pressure gradient will lead to strengthening onshore
flow which will likely necessitate a period of Small Craft
Advisories. These elevated winds and seas extend into early next
week as a cold front pushes offshore Sunday night/Monday morning.
Periods of showers and thunderstorms are also expected Saturday
through early next week. We`ll also need to monitor water levels
during times of high tide late in the weekend as model guidance is
already hinting at peaks above 3.0 ft MLLW.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  55  76  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  60  75  53  74 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  65  74  63  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion