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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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845
FXUS64 KHGX 301128
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
628 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds on coastal waters this morning will continue
  hazardous conditions for small craft on the bays and Gulf waters
  mariners. Conditions should improve fairly rapidly on the bays
  and nearshore waters later this morning, but higher seas may
  linger into the afternoon farther offshore.

- Lighter winds over land will help mitigate fire weather
  conditions from yesterday`s critical to near-critical levels.
  However, very dry air will remain in place today and tomorrow,
  so wildfires may still begin easily. It`s important to continue
  to obey local burn bans and exercise great caution with any
  equipment that could spark a new fire.

- Another system may bring a chance of showers and thunderstorm to
  the region this weekend. There is some very low potential for
  severe weather, but it is still too early to say with confidence
  if that threat will materialize.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025

After a very dry and very windy Wednesday where peak gusts in the
area were as high as 50 mph in some spots, winds are finally
beginning to gradually diminish. Though still somewhat gusty
tonight, they should get even lighter through the day as high
pressure takes over.

Of course, with high pressure, lots of sun, temperatures look to
bounce back right to the upper 60s to around 70 degrees that we
saw yesterday, in spite of a bit more time of cold advection under
those gusty north winds. As a result, that very dry environment is
going nowhere. On the plus side, yay for low humidity in
temperatures that are fall-like, but a warm fall. On the downside,
while we won`t match yesterday`s critical to near-critical fire
weather conditions, we`ll still remain susceptible to new wildfire
starts as afternoon RH again falls to quite low values - as low as
around 20 percent well west of the Houston metro. For more on
that, yes, we have another fire weather section below.

With winds becoming light and variable through the day today, we
should at least get a night or two more of dry, cool conditions
and maybe even an outside shot at lows just below 40 degrees in
Madison and Houston counties way up north. The days, however, will
begin to gradually slide upwards into the 70s with cold advection
stopping and plenty of sun and subsidence under high pressure`s
reign.

Look for onshore flow to return by Friday night, and how efficient
moisture return is on those southeast winds will be critical for
how our next cold front this weekend plays out. If winds are slow
to swing around, and/or moisture return is not very efficient,
that front will struggle to generate widespread convection, and we
could have a mostly dry frontal passage. On the other hand, more
efficient moisture return could set us up for more numerous storms
developing, and given how vigorous the upper trough supporting
this front looks in the guidance, we could even see some threat
for severe weather emerge. While I`m fairly confident in an upper
air setup that would support this, the moisture quality looks to
be a very open, very uncertain question at this time. I know this
is a Day 3 forecast, and I really should have more confidence at
this point. SPC is generally down on the potential, and I agree
that their doubts probably reflect the most likely outcome. Just,
with our proximity to the Gulf, especially the coastal counties,
it wouldn`t be a bad idea to check back in on the latest forecast
info closer to the weekend to ensure our thinking on that hasn`t
changed.

Beyond Saturday, Sunday looks a bit cooler after this frontal
passage, though it will be more of the dry and only modestly
cooler variety, setting us up to warm back up into the 70s and
even lower 80s next week when the subtropical ridge comes back for
another visit.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. North-
northwesterly winds around 8-12kt will continue through the
afternoon with occasional higher gusts possible. Winds will lower
to below 6kt this evening and remain low through Friday morning.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 102 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025

Though gradually improving from previous gale conditions, strong
gusty winds and hazardous seas continue to impact the Upper Texas
Coast. The gale warning has ended, but a small craft advisory
remains on the coastal waters through much of this morning, and
may be needed deeper into the day farther offshore if seas are
slow to subside. Winds and seas should begin to decrease this
evening. Winds become light and veer more easterly by Friday.
Winds increase from the southeast on Saturday as another cold
front approaches. The front may bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms to the region Saturday into Sunday. Gusty northeast
winds are expected in the front`s wake, and small craft advisories
may be needed again after the front passes.

At the coast, water levels will remain below astronomical tide
levels and will struggle to rise much above MLLW even through the
next high tide cycle. As the offshore winds diminish through the
day, however, we`ll see water levels return to values more typical
of the astronomical tide tables.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 102 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025

Though a decrease in winds will moderate the fire environment
some, today will be another very dry day across the area,
particularly west of the San Bernard River. As a result, fires are
again likely to ignite easily, especially in fine fuels that are
especially responsive to very dry air. The weaker winds though,
should make any new fires less likely to spread rapidly.

With winds expected to become very light tonight into Friday, dry
conditions will persist into Friday as well, keeping RH similarly
low tomorrow afternoon. We`ll begin to see some gradual
improvement in the moisture situation into the weekend once
onshore winds resume before the arrival of our next cold front
this weekend. At least some isolated showers and storms can be
expected along this front, though the amount of coverage and rain
to be expected will depend on how much moisture can return to the
area before the front arrives.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  69  43  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  70  49  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  71  60  72  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-335-
     350-355-370-375.

     Low Water Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ335.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Luchs

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion