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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

748
FXUS64 KHGX 060514
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1214 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerously hot conditions will continue through the forecast period.
  Daily widespread heat indicies of 105-107F (41-42C) with
  locally higher values over 108F (43C +) are likely.

- Isolated to scattered (20-40% chance) showers and thunderstorms
  will be possible this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon.

- Chance of isolated to scattered sea breeze  showers/storms
  increases slightly early next week.

- High pressure builds into the area by midweek, reducing precipitation
  chances Wednesday and Thursday. Rain/storm chances return late
  in the week and into next weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

The erosion of ridging both across the eastern U.S and west Texas
yesterday afternoon brought mid-level height falls to our region.
This allowed for storms to develop to our north across eastern
Texas, which moved south reaching the I-10 corridor before
dissipating. Currently, a decaying outflow boundary is progressing
southwestward across Chambers and Galveston Counties, bring gusty
winds of 30 mph with it. Left over cloud cover from decaying showers
is seen across eastern Harris and western Liberty Counties.
Elsewhere, skies are mostly clear.

For today through Tuesday, guidance continues to show mid-level
height falls as the mid to upper-level synoptic pattern breaks down.
This will favor better chances for showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. Many of the CAMs performed well
with yesterdays showers and thunderstorms, especially the HRRR. The
CAMs are once again showing the potential for another round of
showers and storms north of I-10 this afternoon, and across much of
the area Tuesday afternoon. Isolated showers and storms will
generally be favored south of I-10 this afternoon, but some
seabreeze showers and storms will be possible. Shower chances look
to decrease Wednesday and Thursday before we see chances increase
towards the end of the week.

Mid-level ridging is expected to build back in Wednesday, but is
expected to be short lived. Hot conditions will continue for several
days, with heat indices between 105-110F (41-43C) expected. Whether
or not Heat Advisory criteria is met will be dependent on the timing
and location of showers and storms towards the end of the week.
Areas where shower coverage is less would see higher heat indices at
the end of the week. Overall, storm chances towards the end of the
week and into the weekend look to be more widespread than what has
been seen over the last week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

PROB30 remain in the period from 00Z-05Z as convection persists over
north of KCXO and moves SW through KIAH in the evening hrs. Winds
will decrease through the overnight and remain VRB05KT throughout
tomorrow. KCXO and KDWH have TEMPO BR during the sunrise hrs due to
the LGT winds and increased surface moisture. The coastal terminals
will see an increase in winds tomorrow afternoon as the sea breeze
comes on shore. Other then the risk of mist/fog conditions will
remain VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Light onshore flow will persist into early this week. Overall,
Gulf seas are expected to average 1 to 2 feet, occasionally up to
3 feet. Isolated coastal and Gulf showers will be possible each
morning, with a chance of isolated thunderstorms along the sea
breeze in the afternoon. Winds and seas begin to increase by the
middle to later part of next week, with a gradually steepening
pressure gradient. Small craft exercise caution winds and seas may
develop by Thursday as the gradient continues to steepen, with
Gulf seas increasing to 3 to 4 feet by the end of the upcoming
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  96  77  95  77 /  10  10  10   0
Houston (IAH)  97  79  95  78 /  20  30  30  10
Galveston (GLS)  90  83  90  84 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...CMW / Enriquez
MARINE...Williams

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion