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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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271
FXUS64 KHGX 100605
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1205 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm, and more humid weather is expected through the week.

- Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday
  morning as a disturbance moves through.

- Potential for areas of fog and sea fog during the nighttime and
  morning hours during the overnight into morning hours through
  much of the week. Higher than normal uncertainty in the fog
  forecast (see discussion below).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1103 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

The low coming off of the Baja Peninsula will become less-
amplified and evolve into a trough as it progresses east towards
Texas. This continues to hint at less of a convective scenario
and more of an isolated to potentially scattered showers event
Tuesday evening into Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure
stationed to the east will continue pulling moisture inland,
resulting in humid and warmer conditions through much of the week.

The other event to note is the fog that has the potential to cause
impacts along the coast and inland through the rest of the week.
While the current setup favors the development of fog during the
overnight to early morning hours, strong winds in the boundary
layer do make the forecast a bit trickier (particularly over
the bays and Gulf Waters). A southerly jet (15-20 kts) is
anticipated tonight into Tuesday morning...while southerly flow is
generally more conducive to fog development, the strength of the
winds could inhibit more dense fog. Have maintained fog in the
forecast with the potential for dense fog in some locations.
As winds decrease going further into the week, the threat of fog
will increase in response. The exception being along the coast,
where SST may warm enough in response to the warmer airmass, which
would limit dense fog development.

Weekend rain chances are still being monitored as models continue
to depict another subtropical trough/low over NW Mexico closer to
the end of the workweek. This trough is progged to move into Texas
over the course for the weekend and should maintain enough
strength to warrant a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms
to the area. Will continue to keep an eye on it as we get closer
to the weekend.

Daytime temperatures through the week will be in the mid 70s to
low 80s inland and in the 60s along the coast. Nighttime
temperatures will be in the 50s to low 60s. With this weekend`s
system, may see cooler nighttime temperatures (in the 40s to low
50s). With that being near the end of the forecast period, not
going to get too hung up on those numbers just yet.

Bailey


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 450 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR conditions and southerly winds in the 8-12 kt range will
prevail going into the evening hours. Like the previous nights,
fog potential and low cloud ceilings will be the main story for
this TAF period. The main window for fog potential will be from
08Z-15Z. Generally, the highest confidence for fog development
will be for terminals near and south of CXO. However, due to winds
just above the surface gradually increasing overnight into early
Tuesday morning, there is potential that there could be enough
mixing to limit visibility reductions. In contrast, model guidance
has been underperforming on the fog forecast the past couple of
nights, so opted to roll with persistence in this TAF package. Any
fog that develops will subside by 15Z-16Z. MVFR ceilings may
linger through 17Z-18Z before returning to VFR. Winds will be
gustier Tuesday as well with sustained winds around 10-15 kt and
gusts up to 20-25 kt through the afternoon. Another round of fog
and low ceilings is anticipated Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning.

Batiste/Ehlert/Hernandez

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1103 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

The primary concern this week will be the prospect of sea fog and
the higher than normal uncertainty in the fog forecast. Generally
light to moderate onshore flow will push high moisture levels
over chilly waters through the end of the week. This is normally a
very favorable setup for sea fog, especially at night and during
the morning hours. However, winds just above the surface have been
on the strong side (roughly 20 knots a few hundred feet above the
ground). Despite not being at the surface, these winds can lessen
the severity and areal extent of fog. Last night, those winds
aloft were from the southwest, a particularly unfavorable
direction for sea fog. Tonight, those winds aloft will be more
from the south, which is a more direction favorable relatively
speaking (southeast being the most preferred). So the direction
of the wind is expected to become more favorable, while wind
speeds aloft remain a little too strong. That being said, fog
could be more widespread if these winds manage to be a few knots
lower than forecast.

Model guidance is suggesting lighter winds aloft as we approach
the middle to later portion of the week, suggesting the sea fog
risk could rise. However, this will also depend on how much water
temperatures respond to the warm, sunny weather in the coming
days. That being said, our forecast continues to show a daily risk
of sea fog through the end of the week, with the best chance of
fog occurring during the overnight and morning hours.

A system by the end of the week could bring a chance of showers
and thunderstorms, along with increasing winds and seas.
Confidence in the forecast that far out is low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  61  77  59  76 /   0  10  30  20
Houston (IAH)  62  78  61  79 /   0  10  20  30
Galveston (GLS)  60  68  59  69 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Bailey

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion