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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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607
FXUS64 KHGX 301847
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1247 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freezing temperatures expected for much of the area overnight
into Wednesday morning

- Hard freeze potential is virtually nil for most of the area.
  However, there is a low chance (30 percent of less) of a hard
freeze in the northernmost reaches of the area - portions of
Madison, Houston, Walker, Trinity, and Polk counties. It may be
prudent to consider protections against that occurrence for
locations in those areas where vulnerability to a hard freeze is  a
critical concern.

- Abnormally low water levels in Galveston Bay will continue through
at least late Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

Interestingly enough, HREF and NBM wanted to bring lows for tonight
a few degrees higher than what has been forecast.
Nonetheless, maintained the current trend of below freezing
temperatures for the majority of the area as northerly winds
continue to bring in cold dry air. High pressure has cleared out the
clouds over SE Texas this afternoon, and this will help to enhance
radiational cooling over the area tonight (bigger reason for not
buying into the sudden warming trend brought on by HREF/NBM). For
now, it looks as though Houston Metro and the coast/barrier islands
should stay above freezing.

For the few locations that have managed to skate by without a Freeze
Watch/Freeze Warning so far this season, have opted to forego any
freeze products as these locations hover just above the threshold.

For those of you in Madison, Houston, Walker, Trinity, and Polk
Counties, it looks as though lows for tonight will stay above the
threshold for a hard freeze. Probabilities remain low; however, as
mentioned by the overnight forecaster, if you have something that
needs protection from a hard freeze, it is best to be prepared
anyways.

With winds having dropped off significantly compared to yesterday,
this should negate the need for any cold weather advisories as
temperatures and wind chill values both remain above criteria.

We will have a bit of a temperature whiplash by the end of the week
as we undergo another warming trend. By the weekend the entire area
is anticipated to warm back into the upper 70s to low 80s.

Bailey

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 426 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period. Mid-level
clouds will gradually clear out from north to south throughout
the early morning hours leading to clear skies by the late
morning. Northerly winds in the 7-10 kt range will persist through
the afternoon before becoming light and variable after sunset
(around 00Z).

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1243 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

Winds and seas continue to diminish, and the Small Craft Advisory
has been expired as of noon.

On the bays, currents may become strong near the interface of the
rivers and the bays during times of low water, which may
particularly be an issue on Galveston Bay. Low water will likely
persist through at least Tuesday`s low tide cycle and potentially
deeper into the week.

Deeper into the week, light northwest winds on Wednesday will
become southwesterly by Wednesday night. This light to moderate
onshore flow will continue through Friday. The onshore flow will
also boost humidity. While we are beyond any model guidance at
this point, the expected environment should make patchy fog
possible during the overnight hours Thursday night and Friday
night. Winds, though, may ultimately create a situation where fog
formation is disrupted. This potential will continue to be
evaluated through the week.

Bailey/Luchs

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1227 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

Winds have decreased today as high pressure settles into the region.
While winds may be on their way down, dry conditions will be going
nowhere. Very low humidity is virtually certain to persist through
Wednesday with minimum relative humidity values dropping into the
20s during the afternoon hours for most of the region. Locations
west of the Brazos River will be capable of dropping into the upper
teens on Wednesday, boosted by slowly increasing temperatures
without a corresponding boost in humidity.
The lower winds will mitigate fire weather threats, but it will
still be important to consider these dry conditions for fire
planning purposes. This will be particularly prudent in areas of
dense, fine fuels. Texas A&M Forest Service data shows that in
general, near to above normal fuel moisture continues, but grassy
areas and other fine fuel beds will be the first to show the
influence of a prolonged low humidity stretch.

Later in the week, southwesterly winds will finally lead to
increasing humidity Thursday and Friday. This will be interrupted by
a weak cold front at the end of the week, roughly around Saturday
morning. In the wake of this front, drier conditions will filter
back in over the weekend.

Bailey/Luchs

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  54  31  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  54  33  65  43 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  52  44  61  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday for GMZ335.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Bailey/Luchs

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion