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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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662
FXUS64 KHGX 032204
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
404 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 201 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

An active weather pattern is expected late tonight into Tuesday as
a mid to upper level trough moves across the Southern Plains
tonight into early Tuesday morning and an associated cold front
moves across Southeast TX Tuesday morning. Breezy conditions will
continue overnight in response to the pressure gradient
tightening ahead of the front along with a 45-55kt low level jet
developing overhead. With respect to our rain chances, isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated tonight
into Tuesday morning, in particular over areas north of I-10 where
several vort maxes are to pass through. Forecast soundings still
show capping during through the early morning hours, thus, I went
with a more gradual increase in showers and storms for this time
period.

Nearing daybreak, the added lift from the approaching cold front
will lead to scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms
over much of Southeast TX. We can also expect another strong
line of storms along the boundary of the front. Given our shear
profile, conditions may be conducive for strong to severe storms,
capable of producing strong damaging winds, isolated tornadoes,
and hail. The best setup for strong to severe storms may be
around sunrise to noon, which is close to the time the front is
expected to be moving through the local area. Brazos Valley will
likely have the front push through around sunrise and is expected
to push off the coast sometime near noontime. If the front is
quicker than expected, then the potential for severe weather will
be less. However, if the front is slower, it will give us more
a chance for more instability and a better setup for severe
storms.

This afternoon`s SPC Severe Weather Outlook continued a Slight
Risk (level 2 of 5) southeast of a line from Houston County
through the eastern edge of Chambers County and a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) southeast of a line from Brazos County through
Galveston County. Parts of the Houston Metro area is now within
the western edge of the Marginal Risk. Stay tuned, be prepared,
and have multiples ways of receiving weather alerts and warnings.

Regardless of the severe weather potential, winds will be strong
throughout the day with speeds possibly ranging between 15-25 mph
and gusts between 30-40 mph. A Wind Advisory has been issued for
Southeast TX and will be in effect from 4am-6pm Tuesday. In
addition, although it will also be a good setup for locally heavy
rainfall in some spots, showers may be quick enough to not result
in flooding issues. Still, it is something to watch out for and
cannot rule out minor ponding of water on roadways and low lying
areas.

Dry and cooler air will move in quickly behind the front Tuesday
afternoon, ending rain chances over our local area. The rapid
decrease in moisture behind the front could also lead to elevated
fire weather for the western portions of Southeast TX. More
details regarding the fire weather potential is included below.
Low temperatures on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will be
in the upper 40s to low 50s for much of the region.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 201 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

Tranquil conditions will prevail Wednesday through Friday as high
pressure dominates the local weather pattern. The highs on
Wednesday and Thursday will be mostly in the 60s. Southerly flow
returns on Friday, bringing warmer moist air into the region.
Moisture convergence is expected ahead of the next cold front and
will rise the high temperatures into the upper 70s to low 80s
Friday afternoon. Rain chances return Saturday with the passage of
the cold front, followed by cooler air and benign conditions on
Sunday as high pressure builds.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

Ceilings will prevail in the MVFR to low-end VFR range through
the day today region-wide. Winds will be on the gusty side out of
the southeast, prevailing at 15-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts or
better. Winds stay up into the evening and overnight hours and
ceilings drop to IFR around or after midnight. The anticipated
cold front is still expected to push across the region Tuesday
morning. Showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected along and
ahead of this front as it pushes through the CLL area between
12-15Z, through the Houston area between 15-18Z, and eventually
pushing through the Galveston area after 18Z. Behind this front,
winds are expected to be strong and gusty out of the west to
northwest.

McNeel

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 201 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

Moderate to strong southeasterly winds and elevated winds are
expected through Tuesday morning. Winds may gust up to gale force
at times. The elevated winds could bring the risk of minor
coastal flooding during high tide on Tuesday. A cold front will
push offshore on Tuesday afternoon with showers and storms along
the boundary and a period of moderate westerly to northwesterly
winds prevailing into Wednesday. Winds and seas will gradually
subside Wednesday night. Light to moderate onshore flow is
expected to return Thursday and will continue through Friday
night. Another cold front will move offshore sometime Saturday
morning and usher in moderate to strong offshore winds and
elevated seas in its wake. Conditions gradually improve Sunday.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 242 AM CST Mon Mar 3 2025

A cold front will move through the region Tuesday morning into the
early afternoon with strong westerly winds (sustained 15-25 mph
and gusts to 35 mph) and low relative humidity values (20-25% for
most of area, and below 20% for areas west of the Brazos River)
developing behind the front. Moist fuels remain a limiting factor
for fire danger, and additional showers and storms out ahead of
and along the cold front may moisten fuels further, but the high
winds and low RH values will help worsen any wildfires that start.
Because of these conditions, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued
for late Tuesday morning through the late afternoon for areas
west of the Brazos River. The Texas A&M Forest Service also
categorizes this area with a High to Very High Fire Danger Rating.
Winds diminish after sunset Tuesday with relative humidity values
rebounding up to 40 to 50 percent overnight Tuesday. Afternoon
minimum relative humidity values will be on the low side again on
Wednesday (between 25-35% across the region), but winds will be
lighter.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  78  65  75  47 /  20  50  80   0
Houston (IAH)  76  67  77  51 /  20  50  80   0
Galveston (GLS)  73  64  76  53 /  20  20  70   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for TXZ163-164-
     176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
     436>439.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for TXZ195-197-210-211-226-235-236.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM CST Tuesday for
     TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for
     GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ330-
     335.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until midnight CST tonight
     for GMZ350-355.

     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Tuesday
     for GMZ350-355.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cotto (24)
LONG TERM....Cotto (24)
AVIATION...McNeel
MARINE...Cotto (24)
FIRE WEATHER...Fowler

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion