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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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036
FXUS64 KHGX 162324
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
623 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Life-threatening flooding remains possible through Wednesday. An
  additional 4-10" is possible. Rainfall rates have exceeded 2-5"
  per hour in some locations.

- A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for coastal portions of
  Southeast Texas. Winds may gust as high as 40 mph at times,
  especially as we head into Wednesday.

- Moderate to high risk of rip currents each day. Elevated tides
  may lead to minor coastal flooding, especially on
  Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Low pressure will continue to organize along the southern Texas
coast and will likely move into the Gulf over the next few hours.
NHC has identified this feature as Potential Tropical Cyclone 1,
and Tropical Storm Watches are currently in effect for portions of
the southeast Texas coast. While we aren`t expecting a ton of wind
impacts, this system will bring with it an increased threat of
heavy rainfall as it interacts with an anomalously moist airmass
(even for this time of year). Of course, where the heavier rain
falls will greatly depend on the overall track, which is forecast
to cross into southeast LA Wednesday evening. Latest guidance
suggests the heavier rain will stay offshore, with as much as 2-4"
further inland. These totals will be higher if rain bands develop
and stall over the area. Given the uncertainty, we will continue
the Flash Flood Watch for most of the area, the exception being
our northern tier of counties. The TS Watch will continue through
Thursday morning, as TC1 continues its northeastward progression
over LA.

Rain chances will decrease quite rapidly on Thursday as we become
situation on the southwest side of the low and subsidence really
kicks in. Moisture will persist and plentiful sunshine is likely.
This will increase the chance of dangerous heat conditions which
may be exacerbated by overnight lows remaining in the upper 70s to
even lower 80s. With little relief from the heat overnight, the
prolonged period of apparent temps greater than 110 will likely
compound heat illnesses, especially for those that are more
vulnerable to heat. The most likely timeframe for this to occur
is from Friday through the weekend. Still too far to start talking
headlines, but something to remain aware of given the outdoor
activities around the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail the next couple of hours.
MVFR ceilings are expected to develop overnight at most TAF sites.
Most of the rain overnight should remain along the immediate coast,
but an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for KHOU, so have
kept the PROB30 for TSRA there early Wednesday morning. The best
opportunity for showers during the day Wednesday will be along the
immediate coast with a few periodically moving through the Houston
Metro. PTC#1 is forecast to move just offshore of the Texas coast
during the day Wednesday, creating some gustier winds. However,
confidence in the wind direction and wind gusts are on the lower
side as they greatly depend on the ultimate track of PTC#1. Given
this, forecast confidence is low to medium, and amendments to the
TAFs are likely as what ultimately happens with PTC#1 becomes
clearer.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Additional rounds of widespread showers/storms are expected through
the later half of the work week. Light to occasionally moderate
onshore winds and seas of 3 to 6 feet are expected to increase
tonight into Wednesday as a low moves into the northwestern Gulf.
Moderate to strong onshore winds may develop as this system tracks
through the waters. While there is a large difference in timing
between models, the most intense winds are generally anticipated to
occur some time between 4AM to 4PM on Wednesday. Intensity is
contingent on tropical development, though winds around 20-30 knots
with gusts to Gale will be possible. Seas could reach 7-10 feet,
potentially higher at times. Tropical funnels and waterspouts could
develop as well. Strong currents are expected. Minor coastal
flooding is possible on Wednesday and Thursday around high tide. A
moderate to high risk of rip currents is expected for Gulf-facing
beaches as well.

Sustained winds should drop under 25 knots around Thursday
afternoon, though seas will remain slightly elevated, only dropping
below 6 ft by around Friday afternoon/evening.

03

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A trough of low pressure currently over the eastern Texas/Mexico
boarder is expected to drift north-northeastward throughout today.
Spaghetti plots for Invest 90L all support this motion, with the
system favored to move into northwestern Gulf along the Texas coast
today. Once over the waters, this low could deepen and potentially
organize into a tropical storm. Convection within this low has
flared up overnight, showing more promising signs of TC development.
With this in mind, NHC now gives this system a 60% chance of
tropical development within the next 48 hours. Regardless of
tropical development, heavy rainfall is expected and dangerous
marine conditions are possible. Rainfall rates are expected to be
around 2-5"/hr, possibly higher, especially along the coast.
Moderate to strong winds could develop across the waters and bays
early Wednesday with gusts to gale. Tropical funnels and waterspouts
could spin up at times throughout Wednesday. Minor coastal flooding
could occur as well.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  73  88  77  94 /  10  20   0   0
Houston (IAH)  75  88  78  94 /  40  70  30  20
Galveston (GLS)  80  88  83  90 /  70  90  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Watch for TXZ214-337-338-436>439.

     Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ164-177>179-197>200-
     210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT
     Wednesday for TXZ436>438.

     Coastal Flood Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT
     Wednesday for TXZ439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ330.

     Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...WFO
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion