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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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546
FXUS64 KHGX 241946
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
146 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm, dry and breezy conditions could lead to increased fire
  danger this afternoon. Please, exercise extra caution with fire
  again today.

- Breezy conditions are expected this evening through early
  Thursday ahead of an approaching weak/dry front.

- Above-normal temperatures continue into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Winds and warmer conditions are the primary weather stories in the
next few days. Winds will become breezy this afternoon in response
to a deepening lee surface low and a tightening pressure gradient
across the Rockies/West Texas. Looking at 850 mb, models continue to
support a moderate to strong LLJ just north of of our area. Given
this scenario, windier conditions can be expected late tonight
through early Thursday. Expect southerly winds around 15 to 20 mph
with inland gusts up to 25 mph and higher gusts along the coast.

Fire weather: Despite southerly winds re-establishing across the
area today, which usually results in an gradual uptick in humidity;
a fairly dry airmass still persist over the region. Relative
humidity in the 20 to 30 percent range is expected this afternoon.
Warm, dry and breezy conditions, combined with dry vegetation are
the ideal ingredients for increased fire danger. Although conditions
will remain below Red Flag Warning criteria, please, exercise extra
caution with fire again today.

Winds will gradually weaken by early Thursday ahead of the
aforementioned surface low and its associated frontal boundary. This
weak front will enter Southeast Texas Thursday afternoon. The
primary impact on Thursday will be temperature-related;
compressional heating ahead of the front will bring highs into the
mid to upper 80s. Little to no precipitation is anticipated with the
FROPA, other than slight chances over the Gulf Thursday night into
Friday.

A mid to upper level ridge will strengthen over the Baja
Peninsula/northern Mexico during the weekend. This will keep the
region dry and with above-normal temperatures for late
February/early March.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 514 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

VFR with light winds early giving way to strengthening southerlies
into the afternoon and nighttime hours. Gustiness in the afternoon
should tend to drop off after sunset. However, with strong winds
just aloft, even a modest lull in winds could introduce wind shear
concerns. Have LLWS mentions from IAH northward tonight to address
this. Less confidence in seeing LLWS closer to the coast, so will
leave southern half of terminals out for now...but depending on
trends in winds, may need to introduce mentions there as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 139 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Onshore winds and seas will continue to strengthen and build this
evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Moderate to strong
onshore winds will persist through early Thursday with gusts up to
30 kt and seas up to 9ft offshore at times. Small Craft Advisories
are in effect from this evening through at least early Thursday
morning. The aforementioned weak front will move over the waters
Thursday evening, with only slight rain chances to the coastal
waters. Onshore flow resumes by Friday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  73  57  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  73  60  81  67 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  69  62  72  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Thursday
     for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion