Skip to main content.

National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

Related quick links> 5 Day Forecast, Local Advisories, Drought Monitor, UV Forecast, Air Quality Forecast 
475
FXUS64 KHGX 221344
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
844 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...New TROPICAL...


.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very dangerous heat is expected today with dangerously heat
  indices across all of southeast Texas. An Extreme Heat Warning
  has been issued from 11 AM - 8 PM.

- Widely scattered showers and storms are possible late this
  afternoon. Some storms may produce frequent lightning and gusty
  winds.

- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Upper Texas coast
  and adjacent waters through early Friday. Tropical Storm Bertha
  is forecast to weaken as it approaches southeast Texas Thursday
  afternoon into Thursday night.

- Corresponding rain and temperature forecasts for the local area
  are subject to changes later in the week and highly dependent on
  the tropics.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Very dangerous heat continues across the area today. Ridging builds
in across the southern Plains with the ridge centered over northern
Texas into Oklahoma. This coupled with the subsidence on the outer
edges of Tropical Storm Bertha will lead to very hot temperatures
across southeast Texas today. High temperatures will likely reach or
exceed the century mark away from coastal locations. Areas closer to
the coast will still reach the mid to upper 90s. Dew points in the
70s will combine with these temperatures to produce heat index
values up to 115. This heat will be extremely dangerous for those
outdoors for extended periods of time, especially without hydration
and air-conditioned breaks. Please limit your time outdoors if
possible. Lows tonight won`t provide much relief either as they
settle only in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Outside of today`s heat, a weak boundary will slide in from the
northeast late this afternoon into the early evening. There will be
enough moisture to work with as well as plenty of instability to
produce isolated/widely scattered showers and storms along this
southwestward moving boundary. These storms will also be capable of
some strong downburst winds as DCAPE (downdraft CAPE) is in excess
of 1000 J/kg. Thus, wouldn`t be surprised to see a few strong to
perhaps an isolated severe storm late in the afternoon into early
evening.

By Thursday, we`ll have increasing influence from Tropical Storm
Bertha, but significant impacts are not expected. We still expect
Bertha to weaken on approach, if it survives the dry air, wind
shear, and land interaction over the next 24-36 hours. For more
details on Bertha, see the tropical discussion below. Increasing
clouds could help hamper the heat somewhat Thursday, but it`s
possible we may still reach advisory levels with our heat indices
around 105-110 with temperatures still in the mid 90s for most,
except lower 90s near the coast. Some rain bands from Bertha may
affect mainly coastal areas Thursday, but this remains lower
confidence.

Ridging builds across much of the central and western US again into
early next week, meaning the hot, dry weather likely rolls along.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Winds will
be light and VRB through Wednesday evening, turning west to
northwest by the mid morning hours. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon, after 20Z and may
impact coastal and metro terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions
throughout the rest of the period.

Davis/Bailey

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

High pressure over the western Gulf continues to bring gentle to
moderate breezes to the waters today. Winds may briefly approach
cautionary levels late this afternoon and early this evening over
the eastern waters. Influence from Bertha will begin Thursday with
potentially increasing winds and seas. However, Bertha is forecast
to weaken on approach, and most impacts from Bertha would be limited
to small craft operators. There is a low (near 10%) chance of
sustained tropical storm force winds (34 knots or greater) over the
open Gulf waters. Seas will build in response to about 3 to 5 feet.
All of this is dependent on Bertha`s strength and track. Beyond
Thursday, light to moderate southerly flow is expected with 2 to 3
foot seas.

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 828 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

A weakening Tropical Storm Bertha will approach Southeast Texas
Thursday into Friday. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for
Bolivar Peninsula, Brazoria Islands, Chambers, Coastal Brazoria,
Coastal Galveston, and Galveston Island.

As of 7 AM CDT, the center of Bertha was located off the Mississippi
coast and is expected to move westward near 5 mph along the central
Gulf coast during the next couple of days.

Latest data from Bertha indicated maximum sustained winds remaining
near 50 mph with higher gusts. As Bertha moves westward into the
northwestern Gulf today and Thursday, atmospheric conditions will
continue to be not favorable for future strengthening as the storm
encounter higher wind shear, increasing subsidence from the building
high pressure, and deals with land interaction along the central
Gulf Coast. Therefore, it is expected to weaken and become more
disorganized as it approaches our region. The current forecast has
Bertha approaching late Thursday morning or early afternoon as a
weak Tropical Storm, before becoming a Tropical Depression once it
makes landfall.

Regarding impacts for Southeast Texas, Tropical Storm force wind
gusts can be possible under the Watch area with gusts up to 40 to 45
mph. Highest probabilities are expected along the immediate coast
and coastal waters from High Island to Freeport. Elsewhere in
Southeast TX, little to no impact is anticipated. Periods of
scattered showers and thunderstorms can also be expected through the
day; however, the threat of flooding rain is low. For marine and
beach conditions: elevated winds and building seas up to 6 ft can be
expected. Tropical storm force winds up to 40 knots possible
offshore as early as this evening through early Friday. There will
be a high risk of rip currents along all Gulf-facing beaches.
Significant coastal flooding is not expected at this time, but minor
coastal flooding cannot be ruled out during times of high tide
north of Port Bolivar.

Please, remain weather aware and prepared, especially if you are
under the Watch area. Continue to monitor the latest forecast for
any updates on Bertha at www.hurricanes.gov and
www.weather.gov/houston.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 102  81  97  79 /   0  20   0   0
Houston (IAH) 103  82  96  81 /  30  30  10  30
Galveston (GLS)  96  83  90  82 /  10  40  60  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Watch for TXZ214-337-338-437>439.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-
     176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
     436>439.

GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ335-355-375.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Friday for GMZ350-370.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Young
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...Young
TROPICAL...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion