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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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360
FXUS64 KHGX 011104
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
504 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog will remain a possibility nightly through the weekend,
  especially in the coastal areas.

- Unseasonably warm weather will continue through the start of
  next week.

- Few cold fronts will try but are unlikely to reach SE Texas next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1042 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Another night of patchy fog is expected for portions of SE Texas
tonight into Sunday morning, with the potential for dense fog
developing along the coast and along/east of I-45. Observations
as of 11pm has widespread reports of hazy conditions (2-6mi)
visibilities, but expecting some dense fog to develop within the
next few hours - again mostly along the coast and for areas along
and east of I-45. Fog that does develop will dissipate within a
few hours of sunrise giving way to mostly sunny skies and
temperatures rising into the low 80s for Sunday afternoon. Another
night of patchy fog is possible Sunday night into Monday, but SREF
and HREF probabilities of dense fog are much lower compared to
the past few nights.

The abnormally warm weather will continue through the workweek as
upper-level ridging moves in Monday into Tuesday, and then
replaced by southwesterly flow aloft Wednesday through the
remainder of the week. High temperatures will be in the low to mid
80s through the workweek (with some spots potentially rising into
the upper 80s by the end of the week). Overnight lows will be in
the mid to upper 60s by midweek, and then upper 60s to potentially
low 70s by week`s end (which will be approaching the normal high
temperature for this time of year).

For the first time in awhile, we actually have some chances to
see some rainfall across SE Texas this week. The first chance will
be Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front approaches from the
northwest, then stalls to the northwest of the region. While the
best dynamics appear to stay to the northwest of our area, a
combination of daytime heating, passing weak disturbances embedded
in the southwesterly flow aloft, and PWATs rising to 1.3-1.5"
ahead of the front may lead to scattered showers in portions of SE
Texas on Wednesday. PoPs continue for the Brazos Valley and Piney
Woods on Thursday as the stalled front lingers before retreating
back to the north. The next chance for rain will be over the
weekend as the next cold front approaches from northwest. At this
time, there is higher uncertainty with this front on how far south
it makes it before stalling. It may stall in a similar position to
Wednesday`s front, but could sag further south in SE Texas and
thus increasing rainfall chances. We appear to be in a similar
upper-level pattern as we head into the second week of March, so
I`d expect us to see continued warm/humid conditions and chances
of rainfall.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 449 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

IFR-MVFR ceilings will continue across SE TX sites through around
14-15Z. Reduced visibilities due to areas of patchy fog will also
continue through around 15Z. Quickly after, clouds will lift and
scatter out and fog will burn off. The pressure gradient will
tighten today and a 25-30 KT llvl jet will develop, leading to
stronger winds. Expect SE winds to increase to 10-15 KTS with
gusts of 18-23 KTS this afternoon. Winds will relax to around 10
KTS in the evening and to around 5 KTS late tonight into early
Mon morning. IFR ceilings will once again be possible starting
late Sun night and with the lighter winds, there is a chance for
areas of fog to develop early Mon morning.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1042 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Main forecast concern through Monday will be the potential for
patchy, dense fog developing nightly. As of 11pm, webcams and
satellite imagery are showing some hazy conditions, but the
expectation is that areas of dense fog will likely develop in
Galveston Bay and our northern coastal waters through the night.
We are not expecting as widespread dense fog like the past couple
of nights, but mariners should keep weather aware and use safe
boating practices if you encounter dense fog. Any fog that does
develop is expected to dissipate by the mid-morning hours.

Some patchy fog is possible again Sunday night night into Monday,
but the daytime heating on Sunday will warm SSTs, and thus likely
limiting sea fog development even more.

Otherwise, expect continued low seas and light onshore winds
through the next several days.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  83  58  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  81  61  82  65 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  73  63  74  64 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for TXZ200-214-
     236>238-300-313-335>338-438-439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ335-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...Fowler

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion