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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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030
FXUS64 KHGX 030532
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1232 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Closely monitoring weather for the the Independence Day with
increased heat stress expected.

- Hot Weather continues with peak heat index values reaching 100-
107F (38-42C).

- Daily rain chances. Light streamer showers possible in the
  morning, then scatters/isolated storms during the afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

The larger synoptic pattern remains consistent with little change in
the position of the stout ridge across the eastern U.S. The 00z
Canadian analyzed a broad region of 597dm across the eastern Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys. Closer to home, we saw isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms yesterday afternoon, some of which were
strong. Current conditions show mostly clear skies and light winds
across the region.

The weak impulse that brought scattered showers and thunderstorms to
our region yesterday has moved inland. MIMIC-TPW has shown that
Precipitable Water has decreased across our area with the richer
moisture moving off to the northeast. This will help keep showers
and thunderstorms isolated over the next couple of days. As we head
into Sunday and Monday, model guidance begins to show the stout
ridge breakdown over the eastern U.S. As a new ridge begins to build
to our west, a southeasterly moving mid-level impulse across north
Texas may help trigger showers and storms each afternoon.

Heat continues to be the story for the region with additional hot
days expected through the weekend. Only minor adjustments were made
with this forecast package. The previous couple of days have seen
us mix relatively efficiently, keeping dewpoints a touch lower
than forecasted. The previous package introduced slightly lower
dewpoints for today and on the Fourth of July, which was
maintained with this forecast package. This lowers RH values
slightly, which will keep maximum apparent temperatures from
exceeding 107F (42C). We will continue to see heat indices between
the 100-107F (38-42C) range through the weekend and into next
week. This remains below Heat Advisory criteria. That said,
necessary heat precautions still need to be carried out, including
frequent hydration and breaks from the heat with shade/AC. We
will continue to monitor the potential for a Heat Advisory over
the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 848 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Afternoon storms are on the decaying phase of their with most
activity wrapping up across all terminals by 01Z. Thereafter, we
return to VFR conditions. Light winds return overnight. Latest
guidance brings MVFR CIGs back for inland locations, especially
KDWH/KCXO. Further for terminals further to the south, FEW/SCT
MVFR CIGs may be accompanied by brief patches of fog, but any
reduction in VIS will be short lived through 14Z. S`ly winds then
return along with the threat of additional seabreeze storms.
Latest hi-res guidance keeps most of the activity closer to the
coastal zones. Given the low confidence in the extent of these
storms further inland, I have elected to keep the mention of
TSRA/SHRA N of Texas Hwy 35, but we will have to monitor the
overnight model runs to see if the next TAF package will need to
append any rain/TS wording. In the afternoon, SE-SSE winds pick up
to 7-12 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Light S/SE winds around 10 knots and calm seas of 1 to 3 feet are
expected throughout the next several days. Light streamer showers
could develop over the Gulf waters each morning. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms could develop along the sea breeze in the
afternoon near the coastline and bays.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  96  77  95 /   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)  78  96  78  95 /  10  10   0  20
Galveston (GLS)  82  90  82  89 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...Enriquez
MARINE...Williams

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion