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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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233
FXUS64 KHGX 182325
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
525 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front brings gusty this evening / tonight. Hazardous winds
  and seas expected in the bays and Gulf waters tonight into early
  tomorrow morning.

- Seasonably cool conditions expected Friday.

- Beyond Friday, expect a long stretch of warmer than normal
  conditions through the weekend and deep into next week. Record
  breaking warmth is possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1144 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

The current warm and humid air mass in place will be pushed out to
sea by an approaching cold front. The front passes through our
region this afternoon and evening. Gusty north to northeast winds
are expected in its wake, along with falling temperatures. By
Friday, expect seasonably cool temperatures with morning lows
generally in the 40s and daytime highs in the 60s. But the
seasonably cool conditions will be short lived due a gradual
shift to an anomalous mid/upper ridging regime this weekend into
early next week. The UL flow may be more zonal over the weekend,
with the ridge coming into full force by early next week. So we
continue to expect warmer and more humid than average conditions
this weekend into early next week. The one slight change in the
forecast is the addition of rain chances on Sunday across our
eastern counties. As a cold sfc high plunges southward over the
Great Lakes, a backdoor push of cold air may try to bring a
frontal boundary close to our region on Sunday. Something to
watch. Afternoon high temperatures this weekend into early next
week should easily reach the mid/upper 70s. Some days could
surpass the 80 degree mark. Thus, we can`t rule out near record
heat some days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 525 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

As a frontal boundary pushes through the region this afternoon,
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the entire TAF period. This
means that winds will pose the main aviation impact, specifically
late tonight into early Friday morning. Low-level wind shear of
~40 kt (north-northeasterly) is anticipated generally between
00Z-12Z/Friday. At the surface, northerly to northeasterly winds
will remain around or just over 10 kt through 06Z before tapering
off. Gusty winds will prevail at GLS through the night with
sustained winds around 15 kt and gusts around 25 kt through early
Friday morning. Winds will be in the 5-10 kt range on Friday with
a gradual transition from northeasterly to southeasterly by the
afternoon.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1144 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

A cold front will push offshore this evening, bringing gusty north
to northeast winds, building Gulf seas, and choppy to rough bay
waters in its wake. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the
Gulf and Matagorda Bay. For most of Galveston Bay, winds are
expected to remain just below advisory criteria. However, the
lower portions of the bay are likely to reach advisory criteria at
times. Wind gusts over 30 knots are possible behind the front. On
Friday, winds decrease and quickly veer to the southeast, pushing
warmer and more humid air towards the coast. This will increase
the risk of sea fog, especially at night and in the morning,
starting as early as Friday night and continuing through much of
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  40  65  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  45  65  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  53  62  57  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Friday
     for GMZ330-350-355-370-375.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 9 PM CST this evening
     through Friday morning for GMZ330-335.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion