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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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471
FXUS64 KHGX 111145
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
545 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight and
  Wednesday. A few storms could become strong to severe with hail
  and heavy downpours as the main risk.

- A cold front is expected Wednesday night followed by drier
  weather for the remainder of the work week.

- Rain chances could return this weekend as another coastal trough
  develops over the Texas Coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1146 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Several more rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
overnight and continuing into at least Wednesday morning or early
afternoon. The main features supporting this active weather
pattern will continue to be the combination of a mid-upper level
trough with embedded vort maxes moving over eastern Texas and a
surface coastal trough near the Mid/Upper Texas Coast supplying
warm moist air from the Gulf.

At midnight, the GOES 19 Satellite WV Imagery showed the mid
level trough slowly making its way across eastern Texas while the
Total Precipitable Water Imagery showed PWATs of 1.5-1.8 inches
moving northward into the Upper Texas Coast. Numerous to
widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms blanketed most of
Southeast Texas, with some showers indicating rainfall rates of
2-3 inches at times. These heavier showers have mostly been over
rural areas and are moving at a pace fast enough to not lead to
significant flooding. However, ponding of water along roadways and
over low- lying and poor drainage areas is likely, in particular
over the urban areas. Strong thunderstorms will be capable of
producing hail and SPC continues a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of
severe thunderstorms (specifically for large hail) for areas near
and south of I-10 and near and west of I-45 through early
Wednesday. Make sure to have multiple ways of receiving weather
alerts and verify the road conditions before starting your
commute.

Hi-Res models have not been handling well the location and
coverage of these showers and storms, but the latest guidance does
hint at periods of showers and storms persisting through the late
morning or early afternoon hours on Wednesday as the coastal
trough continues to drift near the Upper Texas coast while another
mid level disturbance moves overhead. Areas near and south of
I-10 are still expected to have the higher PoPs, closest to the
coastal trough and where the higher amounts of moisture and
instability reside.

A fairly progressive cold front is progged to move across
Southeast Texas late Wednesday into early Thursday. This will help
push the stubborn coastal trough towards the west-central Gulf
waters and bring in drier air behind the FROPA. Not much daytime
"cooling" is expected with this front, as highs remain mostly in
the upper 70s inland on Thursday and Friday, but will at least
give us a little break from the rain through the end of the week.
The nighttime lows will at least be cooler, ranging in the upper
40s to mid 50s inland both Thursday night and Friday night.

Rain chances could increase this weekend as moisture returns and
another coastal trough develops over the Texas Coast while a mid-
upper level trough moves across Texas. A stronger cold front looks
to move through the region sometime late Sunday or Monday.
Temperatures seem to be a little cooler behind this second front
with daytime temperatures possibly in the 60s.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 523 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

CIGS/Fog has develop across portions of SE Texas early today with light
scattered showers. IFR-LIFR conditions are generally positioned
around/along the I-10 corridor with MVFR conditions near KCLL and
VFR elsewhere. CIGS/Fog should start to improve after sunrise
while the remaining showers push off to the east. Most sites
should return to VFR FLs by the late morning, though cannot rule
out isolated MVFR FLs lingering into portions of the afternoon.
Patchy fog may develop late Wednesday night/early Thursday
morning leading up to a cold front. FROPA should be dry, with
light north winds developing in its wake.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1146 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Several more rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
through at least Wednesday afternoon as a surface coastal trough
meanders near the Mid/Upper Texas Coast and an upper level
disturbance moves overhead. Some storms will be capable of
producing gusty winds, locally higher seas, lightning strikes, and
hail. A Marine Weather Statement has been issued for the bays and
Gulf waters through Wednesday at 6 AM CST. A cold front is
progged to move over the coastal waters sometime late Wednesday or
early Thursday, with drier air following behind it. Moderate
offshore winds and elevated seas are expected in the wake of the
front. Caution Flags may be needed for Thursday. Drier conditions
anticipated for Thursday and Friday along with light northeast to
east winds.

Moderate to strong onshore winds expected this weekend into early
next week as the local pressure gradient tightens in response to
a coastal trough developing over the Texas Coast followed by
another cold front moving through the region. Caution Flags and/or
Advisories are likely. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are
also expected Saturday through early next week.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  79  55  78  50 /  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  78  61  79  54 /  70   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  74  66  75  63 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cotto
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion