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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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536
FXUS64 KHGX 071120
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
520 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing cloudiness today. Rain chances begin trending upward
  tonight and Sunday, moreso west of Interstate 45. This rain
  will generally be light (and much needed).

- Clouds should begin clearing toward midweek as the slow moving
  upper level low pressure area tracks to our east. We may see
  some cooler weather filter in later next week.

- Increasing east and northeast winds and building seas this
  weekend across the marine areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

The next western trough/cut-off low is currently dipping southward
across AZ and will slowly track eastward across northern Mexico this
weekend. We should see an increasing depth of mid and high level
cloudiness move into the region over the next 12-36 hours. In the
low levels, we`re still looking for some coastal troffiness to
take shape over the mid and lower Texas coast. Moisture feeding up
and over this trough in combination with approaching large scale
lift and a series of disturbances moving overhead...should
generate increasing rain coverage across the Big Bend area and
south Texas later tonight and Sunday. The bulk of precipitation
should generally remain situated to our west and southwest, but
some of the recent guidance does show a fairly saturated profile
from about 800mb-250mb. Considering this along with a series of
impulses (and associated lift) moving overhead, there is concern
that some of this precip might survive its fall to the surface
tonight-Sunday night. As such, I`ve bumped up POPs a touch across
eastern portions of the CWA as well. Though the radar will
probably look quite messy, overall accumulations will likely be
fairly negligible east of Interstate 45 - but we did want to
advertise the mention of at least some low chances in the forecast
there too.

The cut-off low will begin to open up and track eastward across the
state Monday-Tuesday, but some lingering troffiness will remain
stretched across portions of the region thru about midweek. Mostly
cloudy conditions and lowish rain chances will continue until
ridging amplifies across the Rockies and the trof across the
eastern CONUS deepens. This type of pattern should provide dry wx
for the second half of the week...but will also be prone to some
surges of cooler wx backdooring into the region. We could very
well need to lower some of our fcst temps late next week as fcst
confidence improves. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 504 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Isolated patchy fog will continue to bring IFR/LIFR conditions to
KLBX early today. Expect this fog to burn off later this morning.
ENE winds and VFR conditions will prevail throughout the daytime.
Light showers will begin to push into the region from the west
tonight. Excluded mentions of rain at most TAF sites for now,
though these will likely be needed later as rain chances rise
Sunday afternoon.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1234 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

East northeast winds are expected to increase toward morning as a
coastal trough develops off the lower and mid Texas coast. Look
for moderate east and northeast winds and building seas over the
weekend, especially in the waters west of Freeport. Small Craft
Advisories will likely be required for portions of the upper Texas
coast tonight into Sunday. Conditions should gradually improve
early next week. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  75  56  68  55 /  20  30  60  30
Houston (IAH)  79  58  72  58 /   0  20  40  30
Galveston (GLS)  77  64  72  64 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...03
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion