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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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070
FXUS64 KHGX 150542
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1142 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier with breezy northwesterly winds today.

- Near record-heat incoming...a warming trend is expected this
  week with highs potentially reaching the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1038 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Based on satellite and radar, the Quasi-Linear Convective System
(QLCS) line that impacted our area is now well to our east, over
Louisiana area. While clearing is occurring from west to east,
wraparound low clouds associated with the main upper-level low will
move over the region on Sunday. Consequently, lingering light
rain (with a few lightning strikes) and/or patchy fog are
possible through early morning with low clouds persisting until at
least early Sunday afternoon. The exception will be across our
northern counties, where mostly cloudy skies will likely persist
through late afternoon/early evening. In addition to the cloud
cover, breezy post-frontal northwesterly winds will filter in,
with gusts between 20 to 25 mph, primarily during the morning
hours. These gusts will gradually weaken in the afternoon as
pressure gradient slackens. Despite the passage of this strong
cold front, a significant drop in temperatures is not expected.
However, mostly cloudy skies and breezy conditions will keep
temperatures slightly cooler than previous days, with highs
generally ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s.

A mid to upper level ridge of high pressure will build across the
region through at least the end of the work-week, keeping the area
drier and warmer. The primary forecast concern this week will be
temperatures as the environment will be favorable for near record-
breaking heat. 850 mb temperatures exceed the 99th percentile of the
NAEFS and have reached the Max for GEFS, particularly from Tuesday
into Thursday. The ECMWF Ensemble Extreme Forecast Index suggests
values in the 0.6 to 0.9, increasing confidence (though it remains
moderate this far out) that record breaking temperatures may occur
on Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures from Tuesday through
Wednesday have been increased toward the 75th percentile of the NBM
to account for the strong agreement in this pattern shift toward
above-normal temperatures for this time of year. This results in
forecast highs in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1142 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Storms have moved offshore, however a low cloud deck is developing and spreading
across SE TX. Area obs are reporting CIGs around 400ft. CIGs are expected to
vary from VFR to IFR levels due to clouds varying between SCT to OVC.
Am expecting patchy fog as well, but VSBYs should remain MVFR. VFR conditions
are expected to prevail by mid to late Sunday morning and continue through
the remainder of the TAF cycle. NW to N winds are expected to increase after
sunrise with gusts around 20-25 knots. Winds relax by late Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1038 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Light showers should gradually end in the coming hours. Winds and
seas will weaken and subside today, remaining below advisory levels.
However, Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions remain in
effect for all Gulf waters and bays through midday. Light to
occasionally moderate onshore winds will resume on Monday and
persist through most of the week. With high pressure prevailing over
the region, dry weather will continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  55  69  47  76 /  90   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  58  71  54  75 /  90   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  58  69  57  66 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ330-335-
     350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...WFO CRP
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion