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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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538
FXUS64 KHGX 031735
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1235 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant weather continues through Tuesday.

- Cold front should bring scattered showers/storms Wednesday
  afternoon and evening. Will continue monitoring the potential
  for some isolated strong to severe cells.

- Rain chances are trending upward for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

As high pressure slides further to our east we`ll see a gradual
rise in temperatures and RH`s early this week. Our next cold front
is forecast to sag into the region during the day on Wednesday.
PW`s will have recovered into the 1.7-2.0"range by then. That
along with favorable daytime heating, some mid-upper impulses
traversing in the swly flow aloft, and northern zones being
positioned closer to RRQ of the jet...we`ll need to be on the
lookout for some shower/thunderstorm development along/ahead of
the front as it approaches. Wouldn`t be surprised to see an
isolated strong-severe cell or two north of I-10, but capping
could be a limitation (in addition to to a less unstable
environment further south closer to the coast).

This front probably won`t make it much more than 50-80 miles off
the coast later Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. Winds
will swing back around to the east & southeast on Friday which
will draw that moisture back inland.

Rain chances look to be trending back up next weekend with the
approach of a mid/upper trof moving into Texas from northern
Mexico. Advertised POPs in the extended fcst could be underdone
at times, but it`s usually tough to pin down timing/forcing with
these features this far out and this time of year. Look for some
upward/downward revisions as the week progresses. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions with clear skies will prevail. Winds will be light
and variable overnight with southeasterly winds of 6-9kt expected
during the afternoon.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

South to southeast winds 10 to 20 knots, highest Monday night
through Tuesday night, will prevail into midweek. The next cold
front, and isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms, is
forecast to push off the coast late Wednesday night or early
Thursday morning. This front does not appear to be as strong in
terms of wind speeds compared to the last two. North and northeast
winds behind the front swing back around to the southeast by
Friday and continue into the weekend. Shower and thunderstorm
chances also increase this weekend.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  57  82  68  85 /   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)  59  83  69  85 /   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  69  79  74  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion