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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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994
FXUS64 KHGX 231852
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
152 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Bertha will remain weak as it pushes across area today, bringing
  scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms, and occasionally
  breezy conditions.

- The heat will build this weekend into next week, possibly
  warranting advisories by Sunday or Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Bertha continues to fall apart as it moves into southeast Texas.
The center of circulation can be seen as a swirl on radar, moving
across the TX/LA border. Disorganized shower/thunderstorm
activity has been sheared well to the south and over the Gulf. A
few thunderstorms have produced gales offshore. But aside from
locally strong thunderstorm gusts offshore, the strongest winds
are on the backside of the system, roughly 20-30 MPH with gusts
35-40 MPH. As the center pushes farther west, we suspect winds at
the coast will increase from the south to southeast around 15-25
MPH with gusts up to around 30-35 MPH. MAYBE we can muster a
stronger gust at the coast if deeper convection can erupt. But if
the latest trends are of any indication, then our area is
unlikely to receive much more than some scattered showers,
isolated thunderstorms, and a general increase in the breeze.

Bertha will become a distant memory as a ridge amplifies this
weekend into early next week across central and western CONUS.
This will shift the focus back to the heat, with heat advisories
possibly warranted again by Sunday or Monday. Given the continued
deep, onshore flow in Bertha`s wake, we cannot totally rule out a
few stray showers on Friday. But by the weekend and beyond, the
weather outlooks appears dry and hot. Afternoon temperatures are
forecast to be in the mid/upper 90s over the weekend, with triple
digit heat possible again for much of next week. With strong
ridging aloft, we may be able to mix in lower dew points during
the peak heating of the day. But peak afternoon heat index values
could still approach 110F even if dew points drop into the upper
60s. Heat Stress (as a function of WBGT) is expected to reach the
extreme category in urban areas by Monday, and could become
extreme in many suburban and potentially rural areas by the middle
of next week.

Hot times ahead y`all!

Self


&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Primary aviation issue today will be increasing winds in
association with approaching TS Bertha. Inland, speeds should
gradually increase into the 13-20kt range as the day progresses
with some gusts to around 30kt a possibility. Along the immediate
coast and offshore they`ll probably be about 10kt higher. Shower
and thunderstorm chances will increase this afternoon, with
highest probabilities along and south of I-10...substantially
lower as one goes further inland. As Bertha tracks westward and
inland this evening, both rain chances and wind speeds should
diminish. Forecast soundings do however show the potential for
some MVFR ceilings across filling in across portions of the area.
47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

As Bertha pushes inland into Texas, winds on the backside of the
system will increase from the SW to S, then from the SE. Winds
this evening into tonight are expected to be 15-25 knots, with
occasional gusts over 30 knots possible. IF thunderstorm activity
can redevelop offshore, then there would be potential for locally
higher winds. Seas are likely to build somewhat this evening and
tonight, possibly exceeding 6 feet in some offshore areas.

As we go into Friday and beyond, the pattern will trend drier and
hotter. Winds this weekend into early next week should be light to
moderate from the S to SW. The heat could become intense, with
Heat Advisories possible in our coastal communities by Sunday or
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  78  94  76  95 /  20  20   0   0
Houston (IAH)  79  94  78  96 /  40  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  83  90  83  90 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ214-337-338-437>439.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176-177-
     195>199-210>212-226-235-335.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Friday for GMZ330-350.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ335-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion