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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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600
FXUS64 KHGX 051027
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
527 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Look for an upper disturbance moving in from the east to trigger
  some scattered storms today. A few could be locally strong.

- Scattered storms are anticipated again on Sunday.

- Though isolated to scattered precipitation is expected on a
  daily basis during the early and mid parts of next week, overall
  areal coverage should be a bit less...and we`ll see some warmer
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Upper vort that was situated across eastern La on Friday will be
tracking wwd into the region today...about the time we start heating
up. As that occurs, we should see higher-end scattered storm
coverage develop east of I-45 (and some coastal
areas)...eventually spreading across parts of the rest of SE TX
during the day. These storms will have more moisture to work with
today compared to yday (2.4" PW`S versus ~2.2" Friday). As such,
we wouldn`t be surprised to see some localized higher totals in
association with some of the embedded stronger cells. Let`s keep
an eye out across our extreme eastern counties that saw the
significant rains from Edouard. With the ground saturated there,
it won`t take a lot to see some quick runoff and localized
ponding/street flooding. We also can`t rule out some 25-35mph
winds where boundary collisions occur and/or storms collapse.

Precip will mostly taper down in the evening with the loss of
heating, but we`re looking at additional scattered storm activity
redeveloping on Sunday. Better chances/coverage appears like it
might be situated southwest of a Madisonville-Trinity line. Again,
can`t rule out some localized heavy downpours/wind gusts.

During the early-middle parts of next week, mid-upper ridge across
the Southern Plains nudges a bit further south into our area. This
won`t prohibit the development of iso/sct diurnally driven seabreeze
type activity, but overall coverage will probably be a bit less than
this weekend (esp for our northern counties). Less rain coverage and
clouds should also lead to some warmer temps for many areas.

Heading into the late work week, ridging retrogrades a bit further
west, and we`ll be keeping an eye out for another mid level easterly
trof possibly making its way toward the western Gulf Coast from the
east. Maybe a slight uptick in POPs warranted during that
timeframe should it come to fruition.  47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 527 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Isolated showers have begun to develop along the coast and will
become increasingly widespread throughout the morning and into the
afternoon. Some of these will develop into thunderstorms,
especially in the afternoon...the highest confidence window for
convective impacts is generally in the 17Z-23Z timeframe. Gusty
winds and reduced visibilities/ceilings will be possible in and
near any storms. Outside of the convection, winds will be light
and east- southeasterly to southeasterly. Convection dissipates
after sunset, but isolated showers will be possible early Sunday
morning with another round of scattered showers/storms in the late
morning to afternoon hours. Isolated spots of patchy fog cannot
be ruled out in the early morning hours, especially at CXO and
LBX.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Light winds and low seas will prevail for the next several days.
That said mariners should be on the lookout for scattered scattered
showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis as upper level
disturbances pass through the region. While widespread severe
storms are not anticipated, the potential is there for a few
embedded stronger storms capable of producing wind gusts to 30
knots, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. the best chances
in the mornings through early afternoon. Usually in this type of
pattern, rain chances are generally better offshore in the late
night and morning hours, in the bays mid morning into the
afternoon hours...though timing of upper disturbances could alter
those at times. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  95  75  95  75 /  40  30  40   0
Houston (IAH)  92  77  93  78 /  60  30  60  10
Galveston (GLS)  89  81  91  82 /  50  40  50  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion