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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

071
FXUS64 KHGX 231138
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
638 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong heat dome over the Southwest will keep conditions dry,
  with temperatures well-above average through the next several
  days.

- Persistent southerly flow could lead to the development of fog
  and low clouds for the next several nights.

- Cooler temperatures are possible this upcoming weekend with the
  passage of a dry cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

A weak cold front is expected to move southward across central TX
tonight and stall near the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region.
This will lead to low temperatures in the upper 50s over the
Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region while the rest of Southeast
TX remains in the lower 60s. Skies will become partly cloudy to
cloudy tonight and areas of patchy to dense fog will develop
through the early morning hours as winds relax to 5 mph or less.
The fog could affect the early morning commute before it begins to
burn off shortly after sunrise.

Yesterday, the models had the cold front stalling north Brazos
Valley; however, they now have the front stalled over the Brazos
Valley and Piney Woods region. Because of the slightly southward
shift of the frontal boundary, the aforementioned region could see
cooler daytime temperatures on Monday. The latest NBM run has
high temperatures in the lower 80s for that region, while the rest
of Southeast TX remains in the mid to upper 80s inland and the
upper 70s along the coast. Skies will be mostly sunny to partly
cloudy and winds will be southwesterly at around 5 mph.

The cold front is expected to lift northward Monday night into
early Tuesday. Light winds will prevail Monday night and low
temperatures will be in the lower 60s inland and the mid 60s over
the Houston metro area and the coasts. We will once again have
very low temperature and dewpoint spreads overnight and with light
winds in place, we will likely see patchy to possibly dense fog
developing over portions of Southeast TX once again.

By mid week, a mid-level high over northwestern Mexico will
strengthen and progress east into northern Mexico and western TX.
This will keep a stable and dry weather pattern as well as rise
our high temperatures into the upper 80s to possibly lower 90s by
Thursday. Although it is too early to know for certain, the GFS
and ECMWF are hinting at a possible cold frontal passage sometime
during the end of the week or the early weekend period. There are
some inconsistencies with the timing of the front, but we are at
least seeing slightly cooler temperatures for the upcoming
weekend.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Seeing conditions ranging from VFR all the way down to LIFR across
the area this morning, with a good area of dense fog notable on
satellite building in from the west. Expect many terminals to
continue seeing IFR to LIFR vis and ceilings until this area of
fog begins to burn off after 13z as the sun rises. VFR conditions
will return later this morning and last through the remainder of
the day with notably less gusty winds than yesterday. Monday
night into Tuesday morning may see similar conditions return once
again.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Light east to southeast winds are expected on Monday as a weak
cold front stalls over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region.
Light southeasterly winds and seas of 1-3 feet are expected for
the rest of the work week. Conditions will remain dry for the rest
of the forecast period. Areas of patchy sea fog is possible over
the bays and adjacent nearshore waters during the next few days
generally between the evening to mid-morning hours.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  84  60  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  86  64  86  65 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  78  67  77  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cotto
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion