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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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841
FXUS64 KHGX 241929
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
129 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freezing rain and potentially sleet are expected across much of
  the region starting later today in our northern zones, expanding
  southward towards the Houston Metro and potentially the coast by
  Sunday morning. Ice may be heavy enough to result in power
  outages in some areas, particularly in our northern counties.

- Ice Storm Warnings, Winter Storm Warnings, and Winter Weather
  Advisories are in effect across the region.

- ANY amount of ice can result in dangerous travel conditions.
  Travel impacts will last until at least Monday as moisture
  refreezes on roadways. Impacts possible through Tuesday at least
  in the Piney Woods and Brazos valley.

- Extended periods of below freezing temperatures along with hard
  freezes are expected Sunday morning through Tuesday morning.
  Portions of the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley will stay below
  freezing for multiple days.

- Dangerously cold wind chills are expected, with values ranging
  from as low as 10 degrees at the coast and as low as -5 degrees
  in the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley.

- Residents are encouraged to winterize their home and make plans
  to keep themselves and loved ones warm during the work week
  prior to the arrival of the Arctic air.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Preparations for the winter storm and extreme cold should already
be complete across the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods, and should
be quickly rushed to completion this afternoon elsewhere. The
Arctic front and associated thunderstorm activity has moved
offshore, with chilly northerly winds in its wake. An inverted
trough is in place at the surface extending northward across the
forecast area, with slightly warmer air compared to cooler
temperatures in far northeast Texas, and much colder temperatures
in North Texas. These are beginning to approach our northwest
counties. The inverted trough, slight influence from daytime
heating despite overcast highs, and low dew point depressions (wet
bulb temperatures close to the actual temperature) have kept
temperatures in the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods around 34-36
degrees currently. There are some pockets of 33 degrees, however.
This won`t last with subfreezing temperatures just upstream, and
we still expect temperatures to drop below freezing in our far
northern counties later this afternoon. Modifying a special 18z
sounding from Texas A&M University for colder temperatures
indicated later indicates a classic freezing rain sounding with
temperatures around +12C in the inversion aloft, and a small
pocket of subfreezing air near the surface.

While the more widespread precipitation has moved offshore until
more moves in from the west tonight, scattered showers continue to
move northward as southerly low-level flow lifts isentropically
over the Arctic front. Occasional pockets of reduced visibility
are noted which are indicative of drizzle. Therefore once
temperatures fall below freezing in our northern counties later
this afternoon, we will see pockets of freezing rain and freezing
drizzle. Keep in mind that just because you cannot see
precipitation on radar does not mean it is safe to travel as
freezing drizzle may not appear on radar but can still cause
dangerous icy patches.

Continued cold air advection aided by a little nocturnal cooling
despite cloudcover, and dynamic cooling from increased
precipitation, will cause the subfreezing temperatures to move
southward through the night, reaching very near the coast by
Sunday morning. Meanwhile precipitation will increase through the
night as the main shortwave ejects out of northwest Mexico. The
heaviest precipitation looks to occur after midnight tonight into
Sunday morning. As temperatures drop below freezing, rain will
change over to freezing rain, along with some pockets of sleet
where the near-surface cold layer deepens or where heavier
precipitation rates cause hydrometeors to not fully melt in the
warm layer as they will be falling too fast. HREF continues to
indicate medium probabilities of embedded thunderstorms,
including potentially in areas of wintry precipitation. These will
cause areas of fluctuations in precipitation type and the
potential for pockets or bands of higher accumulations.

The highest ice accumulations continue to look to be in the ice
storm warning area in the Piney Woods where the highest
probabilities for damaging ice accumulations greater than 0.25"
are, with some low probabilities for even more significant ice
accumulations approaching 0.5". We also do expect some bands of
ice accumulations reaching 0.25" elsewhere across portions of the
Winter Storm Warning. Some of the 12z guidance indicates this
potential along an area from Colorado County up through Montgomery
and northern Liberty Counties, potentially also across far
northwest portions of Harris County, but there is not clear
agreement. Areas in the Brazos Valley are also at risk of ice
accumulations near a quarter inch. These areas will remain in a
Winter Storm Warning rather than an Ice Storm Warning at this time
which still covers the threat, and will message that this is a
higher impact Winter Storm Warning. With some cooler trends in the
models in Coastal Jackson County, and inland portions of
Matagorda and Brazoria Counties, have expanded the Winter Storm
Warning to include those areas, for ice accumulations up to 1/8"
in far inland portions of these zones. Freezing rain for areas
right along the coast remains uncertain, but impacts are still
possible as only a small amount of ice on highway overpasses and
causeways can have a big impact. These areas remain under a Winter
Weather Advisory.

Precipitation ends from west to east on Sunday morning, but strong
cold air advection will remain in place. A low stratus deck will
remain over the area. With temperatures remaining below freezing
for areas north of I-10 and only rising above freezing for a
few hours south of I-10, travel impacts will likely continue
through the day. Then as temperatures drop well below freezing
across the entire area Sunday night, any moisture that remains on
roadways from the rain or melting will refreeze, causing
additional significant travel impacts. Portions of the Piney Woods
and Brazos Valley remain below freezing all day on Monday, and
temperatures drop well below freezing across the entire area
Monday night with additional re-freezing potentially occurring. So
travel impacts will likely extend until Tuesday for portions of
the area.

An Extreme Cold Warning goes into effect tonight, and has been
extended all the way into Tuesday morning. The coldest wind chills
will be Sunday night into Monday morning with winds continuing all
night and cold temperatures. The coldest air temperatures will be
Monday night into Tuesday as the center of a surface high parks
right over the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley resulting in calm
winds and strong radiational cooling. Cool but not as cold
temperatures linger for the rest of the week. Dry conditions are
expected over land areas through Thursday. High uncertainty
remains regarding the northern extent of precipitation with a
potential Gulf low by Friday and whether it will overlap with any
colder air. NBM does indicate some low probabilities for wintry
precipitation somewhere along the Gulf Coast region, but we will
dive more into that once this system moves through.

JDavis

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1226 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

IFR/LIFR conditions are generally expected to continue through
much of the TAF period with improvements to VSBYs towards the
end of the period. Expecting IFR CIGs to continue into the next
cycle. As the cold front continues to move offshore, any residual
moisture combined with temperatures dropping to freezing or sub-
freezing will result in precip changing over from RA to FZRA/PL
from north to south starting this afternoon and overnight. Not
enough confidence that frozen precip will occur in this period at
LBX/GLS, so have opted to leave out of TAFs for now.

CRP

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1239 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

The Arctic front is currently moving over the coastal waters,
bringing thunderstorms and gusty winds in its wake. As the front
meanders offshore, trailing moisture will keep period of showers
through Sunday. We`ll continue to monitor observations as very cold
air continues to filter in. As temperatures fall, freezing rain and
or sleet will be possible in and around the bays tonight into Sunday
morning. In addition, strong north to northwest winds and elevated
seas are also anticipated across the bays and Gulf waters. Small
Craft Advisories remain in effect through at least Monday.
Occasional gusts to near gale are possible. With the arrival of
strong northerly winds, there will also be the potential for
abnormally low water levels in the bays, especially during low tide
cycles Sunday night into Monday.

Mariners should evaluate these deteriorating conditions before
commencing or continuing transits.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  23  28  17  30 /  90  40   0   0
Houston (IAH)  29  35  22  37 / 100  80   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  34  41  28  41 /  90  80   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for TXZ163-164-176>179.

     Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Tuesday
     for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-
     313-335>338-436>439.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for TXZ195>199.

     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday
     for TXZ200-210>213-226-227-235>237-300-313-335.

     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Sunday
     for TXZ214-238-336>338-436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ330-335-350-
     355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDavis
AVIATION...WFO CRP
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion