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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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756
FXUS64 KHGX 072325
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
625 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot conditions will continue through the forecast period.
  Daytime highs will be in the 90s with heat indices in the
  triple digits.

- Isolated-scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
  and evening. Stronger cells will be capable of producing some
  25-45 mph wind gusts.

- A deeper surge of Gulf moisture should arrive late in the week
  and weekend. Warm, muggy conditions persist with daily chances
  of rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are popping up early this
afternoon, mainly over the coastal counties. This activity is driven
primarily by daytime heating and mesoscale seabreeze boundaries.
Further north, weak mid-level troughiness sitting over the ArkLaTex
region will also contribute to some forcing this afternoon. Combined
with PW values in the 1.6 to 1.9 inch range, scattered activity
cannot be ruled out, primarily north of I-10, through this evening.
With DCAPE values roughly between 1,000-1,220 J/kg, dry air aloft
could easily accelerate downdrafts, resulting in localized strong
wind gusts with the strongest storms. Locally heavy downpours and
frequent lightning will also be a risk. Expect activity to taper off
between 7-9pm with the loss of daytime heating.

From Wednesday through the end of the workweek, a drying trend is
expected as a mid-level ridge over the Rockies gradually
strengthens, suppressing overall moisture availability. However,
persistent southerly surface flow will continue to transport Gulf
moisture inland. Paired with daytime heating and seabreeze
interactions, expect the typical pattern of isolated morning showers
along the coast, transitioning into isolated storms further inland
by afternoon. Model guidance points to Friday as having the best
overall rain chances during this mid-week stretch.

Heading into Saturday and the rest of the forecast period, southeast
Texas will be positioned in a relative weakness between two ridges.
Despite a bit of broad mid-level subsidence, a surge of moisture will
filter into the region, leading to rain and storm chances (30 to 60
%) over the weekend. Mid to upper level pattern will keep the region
under the influence of persistent troughiness, ahead of an
approaching backdoor cool front moving south from the northeast.
Therefore, daily chances of showers and storms will continue
through the upcoming week.

Temperature-wise, conditions will remain seasonably hot and typical
for July standards. Highs mainly in the mid 90s, with peak heat
indices ranging from 100-107F.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist across the
area, especially north of I-10, through the early/mid evening
hours. Maintained TEMPO groups at KUTS and KCXO through 01-02Z/8-9
PM CDT for the best potential of thunderstorms. By or just before
03Z/10 PM, precipitation should all be dissipated and VFR should
prevail at all TAF sites. Patchy, light fog is anticipated to
develop again near sunrise Wednesday, highest probabilities along
and west of I-45. Once whatever fog that develops erodes and
ceilings lift, VFR will prevail through much of the day. However,
afternoon showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop again
along the seabreeze. Any heavy/strong shower or storm that moves
over any terminals will cause visibilities to drop to IFR/MVFR
levels. Added PROB30 groups for TSRA at most sites, generally
between 18-00Z Thursday, though exact coverage and probabilities
are still unknown at this time. Winds stay mostly light through
the period, with light southwest surface winds in the morning
veering more out of the south in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and low seas (generally
1-3 ft) will prevail through most of the period as surface high
remains strong across the eastern Gulf. A daily risk of isolated to
scattered showers and storms is anticipated, with the best chances
Friday - Saturday and the upcoming week.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  96  77  96 /  20  10  10   0
Houston (IAH)  79  97  79  96 /  30  20  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  83  91  84  90 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Mejia
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion