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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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200
FXUS64 KHGX 171135
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm, breezy, and muggy conditions will continue for the next
  several days.

- Isolated light showers possible today, scattered activity on Monday,
  followed by increasing shower and thunderstorm chances for the
  rest of the week.

- Elevated winds, seas, tides, and rip current risk in the marine
  water and beaches into mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Prevailing southeast low level flow the past few days has allowed
for increasing moisture/cloudiness to stream into the region from
the Gulf. We`re seeing a few short lived showers pop up on the radar
scope from time-to-time. GOES Total PW loop shows PW`s back into the
1.5+ range from around I-10 southward at the current time. These
should gradually be rising areawide in the coming days with a
persistent fetch of SE winds stretching well into the Gulf. Incoming
higher dewpoints will also make for warm, muggy conditions.

In terms of rain chances, there`s really not much in the way of
significant forcing today, so would just anticipate some spotty,
isolated showers. On Monday, there`s a mix of guidance suggesting a
batch of vorticity moving up from Mexico and overhead late tonight-
Monday which may allow for slightly better coverage...but still
probably not much of overall significance.

Things get a little more interesting Tuesday and beyond. In the low
levels, we`ll see a continued tap of Gulf moisture streaming in. A
weakening frontal boundary will sag into north Tx Tuesday, serving
as a focusing mechanism for some convection. Remnants of this
boundary, and/or associated storm outflows, might make its way
closer to northern parts of our area in the mid-late work week.
Further aloft, mid-upper troffiness will generally set up across the
Rockies...with a quite messy southwest flow below it traversing our
area. Daytime heating, stronger disturbances embedded in this flow,
and the remnant front/outflows will likely trigger showers and
thunderstorms at times and maybe an MCS or two Tue-Sat. Forecast
problem is narrowing down the specifics this far out - especially
since it`ll probably be run on the mesoscale at times. The forecast
grids will indicate good chances of precip, but it VERY likely won`t
be raining the entire time. In general, I would anticipate mostly
scattered diurnally driven shra/tstms. But, with any more potent
disturbances, one cannot rule out nighttime activity either.

This should mainly be welcome rainfall as we head into summer. On
average, it appears areas from about I-10 northward are looking at 7-
day totals in the neighborhood of 2-4", and areas further south a
bit lower. Localized high totals (in a short time period) can`t be
ruled out this time of year should any stronger complexes decide to
fire. Temperature-wise, we`re looking for lows in the 70s and highs
in the upper 80s-low 90s. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

MVFR cigs this morning should improve to VFR by afternoon.
However, low cigs may linger at the coast all day. MVFR cigs
should push inland, impacting most/all terminals by evening and
overnight. Winds will be gusty and from the southeast. Gusts are
expected to be 20-25 knots. In some areas, gusts could exceed 25
knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Seas are currently in the 4-6ft range with SE winds 18g25kt. With
the pressure gradient slightly tightening even further...and the
fetch of moderate SE winds lengthening, we should see winds/seas
build a bit more today and Monday...probably up into the 6-8ft range
by then. Will go ahead and issue a Small Craft Advisory now. Beach
Hazards Statement will remain in effect too which covers the high
risk of rip currents and above normal tide levels. Higher than
normal wave run up is anticipated along area beaches. Wouldn`t be
overly surprised if it nears the 87/124 intersection for a brief
period during the next several high tide cycles into Monday.
Pressure gradient loosens up a touch toward midweek, so elevated
winds/seas will begin to slowly decline. But, we`ll also need to be
keeping an eye out for increasing shower and thunderstorm chances
during that time period. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  78  90  77  89 /  20  30  20  60
Houston (IAH)  79  88  78  89 /  20  40  10  30
Galveston (GLS)  80  86  80  86 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Monday for GMZ330-335-350-
     355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion