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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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971
FXUS64 KHGX 152303
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
603 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm, humid and relatively dry through the weekend. A few
  streamer showers/storms possible late Saturday into Sunday.

- Beach conditions: localized minor coastal flooding will be
  possible during times of high tide mainly near Galveston Bay
  through the weekend. A high risk of rip currents is also
  expected along all Gulf- facing beaches.

- A wetter weather pattern returns next week with some weekly
  rainfall totals of 2 to 4+ inches totals through the end of the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

The main weather stories over the next several days are warm and
humid conditions with increasing rain and storm chances. A mid to
upper level ridge axis is currently to our east; therefore a quasi-
zonal flow aloft will prevail in the coming days. This pattern will
continue to bring multiple disturbances/impulses of energy that will
persist well into the upcoming week.

The weekend is shaping up to be mostly cloudy, warm, humid with
breezy conditions, especially over the coastal counties. Several
disturbances along with a surface low centered over the
central/south Plains will result in stronger WAA, an increase in
Gulf moisture and increased surface winds. With broad theat-e
advection spreading inland, and good isentropic lifting on the 305K
layer; cannot rule out some streamer showers and isolated storms
through the weekend. The capping inversion is progged to be weaker
late Saturday into Sunday; therefore, the best window for this
activity looks to be during this time frame. With surface dewpoints
in the mid to upper 70s; get ready for humid/muggy days ahead. Highs
will generally be in the low 80s to low 90s with heat indices up to
100F.

Next week... a stronger shortwave trough will deepen across the
Rockies on Sunday, ejecting multiple impulses of energy ahead of
it. At the surface, a frontal boundary will attempt to move
southward into north central TX early in the week. This messy and
unsettled pattern will provide enough forcing to keep daily rain and
storm chances across SE TX. At the moment, the best scenario for
scattered to widespread showers and storms is forecast to be from
the Tuesday into Wednesday time frame with the passage of a stronger
disturbance. We will continue to monitor this period as there is a
potential for excessive rainfall. There is still uncertainty in the
timing and the location of the heaviest rainfall as it will strictly
depend on the evolution and translation of the shortwave and the
location of the surface boundary. Models are not in good agreement
on timing, but the general consensus suggests rainfall totals of 2
to 4+ inches, generally north of I-10 from Sunday through the end of
the next week. It is too far out, and this rainfall forecast WILL
CHANGE. As of now, we suggest you focus on the potential and stay
informed as unsettled weather is expected to continue through the
end of the upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Broken high cloudiness is anticipated overnight. With low level
moisture gradually modifying, we should also see a mix of sct/bkn
1500-2500ft decks emerge. Guidance mainly indicates these lower
clouds will be mostly scattered in nature, there is a subset of
guidance indicating portions of the region see some intermittent
MVFR conditions later tonight. Confidence is somewhat low in terms
of when/where so we`ll just have to monitor trends and amend TAFs
as needed. By mid morning, we`ll see SSE winds increase to 15-25kt
which should allow for some gradually lifting clouds and a return
to VFR conditions areawide.  47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Moderate onshore winds and seas up to 5 ft will continue this
evening and persist through the weekend. Small craft should exercise
caution this weekend. Winds and seas may reach advisory levels early
next week as several disturbances move through the region.

Will continue to monitor coastal conditions as persistent southerly
winds could potentially result in localized  minor coastal flooding,
particularly during times of high tide. Latest P-ETSS guidance
shows water levels at or above 3.5 ft MLLW during high tides
starting tonight and continuing through early Monday. Strong rip
currents are also expected. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect
through Monday morning.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  70  88  74  90 /   0  10  10  20
Houston (IAH)  73  88  76  88 /   0   0  20  20
Galveston (GLS)  75  84  78  84 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Saturday morning for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion