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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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452
FXUS64 KHGX 171850
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
150 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and dry this weekend.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected with elevated winds/seas
  through tonight. Slowly improving conditions are anticipated
  into Sunday.

- Warmer temperatures return next week, but just seasonable in
  nature.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Cool, dry, and windy conditions continue in the wake of yesterday`s
cold front passage as high pressure builds into our CWA, bringing
with it colder and drier northerly air. Winds further inland and in
the bays will gradually decrease this afternoon and evening. Winds
along our coast and offshore waters will however remain elevated,
with sustained winds of 20-25 kts and possible gusts beyond that
range, warranting a Small Craft Advisory valid until 1 AM CT
tonight. Beyond the winds, we can expect a pleasant Saturday with
highs in the upper 60s to low 70s, and overnight lows in the 50s,
with more northern portions of the CWA sliding down into the 40s.
Sunday will be more of the same, albeit with slightly warmer
highs/lows and calmer winds.

Looking out toward next week, the center of that high pressure
shifts toward the Great Lakes region, providing easterly flow that
will allow temperatures to warm back up. Near surface moisture will
be limited, as PWATs in the region hover in the 0.5-1.0" range.
Therefore, PoPs through next week will likely remain under 10%, with
a possible exception on Tuesday as a passing surface trough in the
Gulf could bring rain to our offshore waters and Matagorda Bay.

JMG/Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

VFR conditions continue through this TAF cycle. Gustier N/NNE
winds seen earlier today will decrease to 5-10 kts as the day
progresses, with inland TAF sites becoming calm overnight while
coastal TAF sites maintain elevated sustained winds of 10-12 kts.
E winds will strengthen to 5-10 kts tomorrow morning as high
pressure builds into the region.

JMG/Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Strong gusty NE winds of 15-25 knots with slightly higher gusts
will continue this afternoon and decrease to around 20 knots
early tonight. The Gale Warning has expired and was replaced by a
Small Craft Advisory, which will remain in effect for the Gulf
waters through 1 AM tonight. Caution Flags will be in effect for
the bays through 1 AM.

Winds will continue to relax during the late night hours as high
pressure builds across the region, and seas will gradually
subside. The Gulf waters could remain under Caution Flags for much
of the overnight to Sunday morning hours as winds and seas
gradually taper down.

Moderate E winds are expected during the first half of the
upcoming week and could reach 20 knots at times. This will lead to
elevated seas of 3 to 6 feet. Additional Caution Flags and Small
Craft Advisories may be needed.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  69  47  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  72  52  74  54 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  73  58  74  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ350-355-370-
     375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JMG/Cotto
AVIATION...JMG/Cotto
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion