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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

514
FXUS64 KHGX 241050
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
550 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory remains in effect.

- Very hot conditions along with a risk of an isolated
  thunderstorm continues through Wednesday.

- Chance of showers and thunderstorms increases later in the week
  as the heat eases somewhat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1121 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

The forecast through Wednesday remains unchanged due to the
continued presence of strong mid/upper ridging aloft. Triple digit
heat should reign supreme across inland regions, while highs at
the beaches average in the low/mid 90s. Lower dew points will mix
down to the surface during the afternoon. But even with this
mixing, heat index values are expected to reach or exceed advisory
criteria today, and possibly again tomorrow and Wednesday. There
may be a little more in the way of clouds on Tuesday, which could
help keep us a tad less hot and below advisory criteria.
Regardless, hazardous heat will occur through Wednesday. An
isolated shower/storm cannot be ruled out. Monday-Tuesday PoPs are
~10%.

Global deterministic and ensemble guidance has trended towards a
breakdown in the ridge during the second half of the week. This
breakdown may be modest, with ensemble mean 500 MB heights only
dropping from 595 dam to 592 dam. But the breakdown coupled with
increasing disturbances aloft are leading to an upward trend in
PoPs for the latter portion of the week (Thursday - Saturday).
With increasing clouds and PoPs comes less hot temperatures. Most
of the CWA is forecast to be in the seasonably miserable mid 90s
by Friday and Saturday. The recent hot and dry spell has placed
the area on a trajectory towards drought. So hopefully the
increasingly wet signal late week is a trend that continues in
future updates.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 539 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Mostly VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period. SW winds
this morning at 5-10 kts, then turning SSE by mid afternoon.
Winds will turn SSW again tonight but a weak low level jet may
keep wind speeds in the 5-10 kt range for much of the night.
There`s about a 10-15% chance for showers/storms today.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1121 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

A typical summertime pattern will continue through much of the
next week. Overnight winds are expected to be southwesterly,
potentially from the west during the predawn and morning hours.
Then winds should become more southerly during the afternoon
hours. Winds in the bays should average 10-15 knots with
occasional gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon and early evening
hours, before becoming lighter during the overnight hours.
Meanwhile, offshore Gulf winds will be highest at night (10-15
knots gusting 20 knots) and lower during the day. Isolated shower
or storm possible through Wednesday. Chance of showers and storms
increases later in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 103  77 101  77 /  10  10   0   0
Houston (IAH) 102  80 100  80 /  10  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  91  84  91  84 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion