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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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240
FXUS64 KHGX 242349
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
549 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm and humidity conditions continue into the weekend.
  Some days could reach record warmth.

- Through the weekend, expect daily visibility reductions due to
  fog and sea fog, especially across the bays and coastal areas.
  The main threat for fog will be during the nighttime and morning
  hours. Afternoon fog a possibility near the coast.

- Strong cold front late Sunday night into Monday morning to bring
  much colder conditions Monday-Tuesday before gradually warming
  back up towards average heading into New Year`s Eve.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1222 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

The pattern over Texas is being driven by one dominant and one
secondary feature. The dominate feature is a large mid/upper ridge
that looms large over south-central and southeastern CONUS. The
ridge is a major contributer to the holiday heat effecting much of
CONUS west of the Rockies. This ridge coupled with onshore flow
in the low levels will keep things quite warm and humid through
this weekend. But for those who know a thing or two about the
weather, you`d think that the ridge would equate to mostly sunny
skies. But instead, our afternoon skies feature plentiful low to
mid level cumulus. We also have very resilient sea fog over the
Gulf, which has struggle to break during the afternoon. These
clouds and resilient sea fog are a function of our secondary
feature, the mid-level low over northeast Mexico. The low is
supplying deep, moist southerly flow aloft, resulting in a rather
moist profile considering the proximity of the mid/upper high.
Therefore, there hasn`t been enough dry air aloft to completely
mix out the fog offshore. Afternoon temperatures are expected to
average in the upper 70s to low 80s through this weekend. Expect
it to feel a few degrees warmer thanks to that humidity. Overnight
lows should average in the 60s.

If the recent warmth and humidity takes you out of the holiday
fantasy, then fear not! For a strong cold front approaches on
Sunday. Gusty winds are likely in the front`s wake Sunday night
into Monday. The ~1040MB high behind the front should build
southward, advecting cold air southward across the plains and into
Texas. Monday and Tuesday are expected to feature afternoon highs
in the 50s with overnight lows in the 30s. We even have upper 20s
in our northern counties. As the forecast stands now, areas
outside Houston`s urban heat island and away from the coast could
easily experience a light freeze for one or two nights next week.
Could not rule out freezing temperatures in the city either. But
for now, we are going with Monday/Tuesday night lows in the
mid/upper 30s in the City of Houston.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 522 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

High humidity and daytime heating led to some isolated light
showers developing between SGR and CXO this afternoon, but this
activity will quickly end after sunset. Then, the main forecast
concern for the remainder of the period is the return of yet
another IFR to LIFR night due to low clouds and dense fog. These
conditions have already returned to GLS where CIGs are down to
200ft and dense fog has reduced visibility down to 1/4 - 1/2mi.
These conditions will spread further inland through the next
several hours with LIFR conditions reaching HOU around 05z and
then IAH around 06z. CLL and UTS may prevail as IFR with CIGs down
to 600ft and patchy fog reducing visibility down to 2-4mi, but
temporary periods of IFR to LIFR conditions will reach up there by
10z. Conditions improve through the day with clouds and fog
scattering out/lifting through the morning. MVFR conditions return
for most inland locations by 15-16z and then VFR by 17-19z, but
patchy fog may linger at GLS into the early afternoon. Fog and low
CIGs are expected to return Thursday night.

Light south winds will prevail through the night, increasing in
speed to around 6-9kt during the afternoon on Thursday, then
dropping below 6kt again by sunset.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1222 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Sea fog is expected to remain an issue through the weekend. Though
the fog has lifted in many areas as of noon today, a fog bank
south of the Sabine is drifting westward and may reduce visibility
in the vicinity of Bolivar, Galveston, Galveston Bay, and the
adjacent Gulf waters this afternoon. Even if this fog bank
dissipates, the chance of widespread dense sea fog will increase
again by this evening. Sea fog during the evening, overnight, and
morning hours will remain likely through the weekend. It is
possible that fog could become somewhat less severe and less widespread
this weekend if ocean temperatures manage to sufficiently warm.

The next feature of interest will be a cold front that is expected
to push offshore late Sunday night or early Monday morning. Strong
gusty winds and building seas are expected in the front`s wake.
Winds should easily reach Small Craft Advisory criteria. Gale
conditions are possible on Monday, especially over the open Gulf.
But we cannot rule out gale conditions in the bays as well.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1148 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

The record high of 81 degrees was tied for the City of Houston
earlier today. With temperatures not likely to change
significantly until Sunday`s front, records may potentially be
tied or broken through the end of the week. At the very least, we
will be much closer to those records than we will be to seasonal
averages.

As a quick summary, record highs at the two Houston climate sites
(IAH, Hobby) range from 81-84 over the next five days, while
record high min temps range from 68 to 75 degrees. College
Stations records range from 81 to 86 for highs and 65 to 73 for
high mins. Galveston`s record highs range from 78 to 80 for max
temps, and 67 to 71 degrees for record high min temps.

Luchs/Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  64  82  61  82 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  64  82  62  82 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  67  75  67  75 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Thursday for GMZ330-335-350.

     Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Thursday for GMZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion