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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

173
FXUS64 KHGX 092012
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
312 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Higher chance of showers/thunderstorms Monday, especially in
  southern/coastal counties. Locally heavy rainfall likely.

- Drier and hotter pattern to take hold by Tuesday and beyond.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Shower and thunderstorm activity generally remains isolated to
widely scattered as expected. However, a few thunderstorms are
managing to produce strong gusty winds as complex interactions
with outflow boundaries are locally enhancing sfc convergence and lift.
Convection is quite pulse-y, with most updrafts struggling to
sustain themselves long enough for truly deep convection. That
being said, a few stronger thunderstorms are being observed. We
did increase inland PoPs slightly since this morning`s forecast
update. Convection should wane with the loss of daytime heating
this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1125 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

I`ll begin today`s AFD with a tale of two morning commutes. More
specifically, the appearance of the clouds during my morning
commute today vs yesterday. While driving south on I-45, I
definitely noticed more towering cumulus in the direction of
Galveston Bay and the Gulf yesterday morning as compared to this
morning. The atmosphere wasn`t void of morning bay/coastal
cumulus. But the difference was noticeable. I wondered if this
would be a harbinger of the rest of the day. By the time I logged
into my computer and began looking at observations, the lower
cumulus coverage began to make since. For starters, PWATs were a
tad lower than 24 hours ago. But more importantly, an approaching
trough (and associated moisture plume) in the Gulf appeared to
have amplified somewhat, likely enhancing ridging downstream. In
other words, the atmosphere is a little more suppressed today.
That being said, the atmosphere isn`t suppressive enough to
prevent diurnally induced shower/thunderstorm activity. In
addition, PWATs are still quite high (~1.80 inches). So some of
you will still experience a passing shower or thunderstorm, with
locally heavy downpours likely. But the overall coverage of
showers/storms is expected to be slightly lower than yesterday.
August will continue being August, with temperatures in the 90s
and heat indices in the triple digits.

As mentioned in the first paragraph, a plume of deep tropical
moisture lurks offshore. As the plume pushes into SE Texas, it
will effect shower/thunderstorm activity in two ways. 1) It is
likely to make showers/storms more numerous in our southern and
coastal counties. 2) It will increase the risk for locally
excessive rainfall. Therefore, the risk of localized flooding is
higher tomorrow. The Weather Prediction Center has placed the
southern half of our CWA in a Level 1 of 4 risk of excessive
rainfall. Temperatures are expected to be less hot. But humidity
will likely be higher since there won`t be much dry air aloft to
mix out our dew points.

Ridging should increase its influence on the SE Texas atmosphere
as the week progresses. I still kept a slight chance of a
seabreeze related shower/storm on Tuesday. Otherwise, the rest of
the week is looking dry with seasonably miserable heat and
humidity. There will come day when we`ll speak of cold fronts and
comfortable weather. But not in August.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

FEW to SCT ceilings around 015-025 will move over the terminals
through 14-15Z. The next aviation concern is the chance of -SHRA/-TSRA
slowly developing from the coast inland, mainly from mid-morning
through early this evening. Will continue with PROB30 due to low
confidence in timing and occurrence. Erratic winds and low
ceilings/visibility are possible with any strong storms. Winds
will generally remain from the SSE, with speeds from 9 to 12 kts
later this afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight. VFR
conditions are expected for most of this TAF cycle.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1125 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Light to moderate south to southeast flow and 1-3 foot seas are
expected over the next few days. Shower and thunderstorm coverage
is expected to increase Monday morning into the early afternoon. A
locally heavier thunderstorm capable of gusty winds, visibility
drops, and frequent lightning are expected. Beyond Monday, the
pattern turns drier. Winds and seas are expected to increase
somewhat by the second half of the week. Caution flags may be
warranted.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  75  93  76  96 /  10  10   0  10
Houston (IAH)  78  92  78  95 /  10  60   0  20
Galveston (GLS)  81  89  83  90 /  30  70   0  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion