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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

073
FXUS64 KHGX 011949
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
249 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog possible during the overnight to early morning hours
  for the next couple of nights.

- Hot and humid conditions expected through mid-week. Make sure to
  be prepared for the heat if you plan to work or spend time
  outdoors.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this
  afternoon. Shower/storm chances increase Tuesday and going into
  the end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Mostly quiet conditions across the region this afternoon, with
some isolated to scattered showers and storms favoring the
southwestern coastal counties. Expect isolated to scattered
activity to continue through the afternoon and moving inland along
the advancing sea breeze. A decaying MCS feature descending
southwestward out of Arkansas should decay before reaching the
northeastern counties according to the latest CAM`s, so rain
chances through the overnight period are generally 15% or less for
that area.

Tomorrow during the daytime hours is anticipated to be more of
the same as today, with morning shower potential increasing in
areal coverage with showers and storms during the afternoon hours
along the sea breeze front. However, uncertainties grow regarding
an advancing frontal boundary moving south across the region
going into tomorrow night. HREF guidance shows a wide variance of
results, ranging from an organized line of showers/storms to
little to no activity. While the worst case scenario would have
some level of impacts, even the strongest winds (from the HRRR)
have only a few paintballs that would exceed 35+ mph gusts. So
will have to see how future guidance hones in on this advancing
frontal boundary and the associated convection with this front.

Overall, the weather pattern features ridging aloft across the
central U.S., but a few weak waves may locally weaken the ridging,
resulting in better shower/storm coverage going through the rest
of the week. This ridge axis will also shift eastward by the end
of the week, as a weak cutoff low deepens across northern Mexico.
How long this troughing feature lingers across that general region
remains to be seen, so will have to keep an eye on how guidance
evolves. While the main dynamical energy remains northwest of the
region, the weakened ridging overhead will be the source of why
more widespread shower/storm activity is expected to increase
through the end of the week and into this weekend. Overall,
temperatures will run a few degrees above normal through early
week, prior to retreating back to near normal levels mid to late
week as convective activity becomes more widespread.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 557 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A mix of VFR, MVFR, IFR ceilings and vsby out there early this
morning. Conditions should generally improve to VFR areawide after
about 16z. We do anticipate some isolated to scattered late
afternoon & early evening shra/tstms associated with the seabreeze
today, but probabilities a bit too low to mention in individual
TAFs at this point. Look for some late night patchy fog
development again tonight...burning off a few hours after sunrise
Tue.  47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Light onshore flow and low seas will prevail through late Tuesday.
By Wednesday morning, winds will transition to northeasterly to
easterly as a weak boundary approaches the waters. Winds transition
back to east-southeasterly to southeasterly by Wednesday night with
wind speeds occasionally strengthening near the caution flag
threshold going into the weekend. The occasionally stronger onshore
flow will lead to gradually building seas towards the end of the
work week. Another consequence of the occasionally stronger onshore
flow is an increased risk of rip currents beginning around midweek.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible daily
beginning on Monday, but expect these chances to increase towards
the end of the work week.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  75  91  73  88 /  10  30  30  30
Houston (IAH)  76  91  75  89 /   0  30  40  40
Galveston (GLS)  80  88  79  87 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Young
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion