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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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401
FXUS64 KHGX 120323
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1023 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A line of storms moves in from northwest on Sunday
  morning/afternoon. A few storms could become strong to severe
  and be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, hail, and
  localized flooding. Best chance of strong to severe storms will
  be in the Piney Woods and portions of the Brazos Valley.

- Strong rip currents expected along Gulf-facing beaches through
  the weekend.

- Increasingly summer-like weather by the second half of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1023 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

A ridge axis continues to slide out to the east as an upper level
low gradually pushes into the western CONUS. That upper low plays
more of a role going into midweek, but our attention is first
turned to Sunday. Before we talk about the high-res guidance,
let`s first talk about the environment. PW values will be
approaching the MAX percentile (~1.88") by Sunday morning. In
addition to this, a passing jet streak and LLJ will have portions
of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods in the right entrance region
providing upper level divergence. Another addition to this is a
passing embedded shortwave trough that pushes through
northern/central Texas. There will be at least some instability in
place (~1200-1800 J/kg MUCAPE) in our northern counties, but
greater amounts of instability will be off to our west. There will
be plenty of shear as well with bulk shear (0-6km) around 40 kt
in the Brazos Valley. The latest CAMs reflect a cluster of
thunderstorms developing over in western central Texas overnight
and moving eastward through Sunday morning. There is uncertainty
in if these storms will hold together all the way into the Brazos
Valley in the mid to late morning hours of Sunday. IF these storms
hold together, a few embedded storms could be strong to severe
and capable of producing all severe hazards (damaging wind gusts,
hail, isolated tornadoes). As a result, SPC has outlined portions
of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods in a marginal risk (level
1 of 5) of severe weather. The best idea for timing is around
10AM-1PM...the earlier solutions tend to favor the line dying out
before it arrives.

The one caveat to that is the 00Z ARW which has initialized fairly
well with the storms out in western Texas this evening. This pushes
an MCS into the Brazos Valley around sunrise and holds it together
through most of Southeast Texas through the early to mid morning
hours. In this scenario, there would be no second round of
afternoon storms as the environment would be way too worked over
for additional development. This for now is an outlier as the
southern end of the line manages to hold together. This certainly
is worth mentioning though. We`ll continue to monitor both the
trends in the CAMs and on the radar overnight.

There is another conditional threat for strong to severe storms in
the afternoon hours as well. Some of the CAMs reflect additional
convection developing in the early to mid afternoon generally west
of the Brazos River. If these storms develop, the environment would
still be conducive for a few storms to become strong to severe. This
is reasoning for the portion of the marginal risk that covers areas
near and west of the Brazos River. With PW values near or exceeding
the max percentile, there is potential for locally heavy rainfall in
any of the stronger storms. High rainfall rates (2-3+"/hr) for an
extended period of time could lead to instances of localized urban
and small stream flooding. As a result, WPC has outlined areas
generally north of a Columbus-Conroe-Trinity line in a slight risk
(level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall on Sunday. A marginal risk
(level 1 of 4) extends just southward of that and covers down into
areas just north of Matagorda Bay, northwestern portions of the
Houston metro area, and the remaining portion of the Piney Woods.
Rainfall totals of 1-2" will be common in these areas, but locally
higher amounts of 3-4+" are possible as well.

Beyond Sunday, we remain in a pattern with southwesterly flow aloft
with plenty of embedded shortwaves leading to slight daily
chances for showers and storms mainly over our northern areas.
There are a lot of eyes on the severe weather potential in the
central/southern plains on Tuesday and Wednesday next week, and
that threat does remain to our northwest on both days. As an upper
level trough sweeps through the central CONUS early next week
(from the upper low we previously discussed earlier), it will aid
in the development of storms off of a dry line over in western
Texas. It`s not entirely out of the question for storms to clip
portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods, but there will be a cap
in place that would need to be overcome (especially on Tuesday).

Temperatures will go a gradual upward trend throughout the week with
highs on Sunday mainly in the low 80s then in the mid 80s by midweek
and the upper 80s by the end of the work week. Isolated spots
reaching the 90s isn`t entirely out of the question either. Low
temperatures will mainly be in the upper 60s to the low 70s
throughout the forecast period. Each day is a day closer to the
summer that we all know and lov...well I don`t love it, but I know
some of y`all do. To each their own!

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

As of this evening shower activity has either broken down or moved
off the TAF sites with impacts coming from the linger cloud cover
over the area. MVFR CIGs are expected to build as we head into
the overnight hours with potential to once again see a brief
period of IFR CIGs during the early morning hours of Sunday.
Heading into the late morning and afternoon hours will see the
arrival of a expected system which will have the potential to
produce another round of showers and thunderstorms. Currently
northern TAF sites are the more likely locations to be impacted
for thunderstorms with chances getting lower and lower as you head
south. Timing of these storms is looking to be as early as 15Z
with a more likely time of 18 to 23Z. Otherwise, linger showers
may still hold beyond sunset but will be quick to break down
during the night time hours of Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1023 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Moderate southeasterly winds and elevated seas (4-6 ft) persist, so
small craft should continue to exercise caution through at least
Sunday night. Due to the elevated onshore flow, the increased risk
of strong rip currents continues along Gulf-facing beaches through
the weekend. Southeasterly winds weaken a bit going into early next
week, but there may be intermittent periods where caution flags may
be necessary. Another consequence of the persistent onshore flow are
the slightly elevated high tides. P-ETSS guidance continues to
reflect water levels reaching near 2.5-3.0 ft above MLLW during
times of high tide throughout most of the work week. While coastal
flooding is not a concern at this time, some wave run-up is
certainly possible along Gulf-facing beaches. Daily chances for
showers and storms will persist going into next week, but rain
chances will generally be higher over inland locations.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  68  79  69  83 /  20  80  40  20
Houston (IAH)  70  81  71  84 /  20  60  20  20
Galveston (GLS)  72  77  72  78 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Sunday evening for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion