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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

834
FXUS64 KHGX 251103
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
603 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Few storms may clip portions of the Piney Woods area early
  today... cannot fully rule out a stronger storm or two.

- Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible over the area
  this afternoon and evening.

- Gradual warming trend with temperatures reaching into the upper
  80s to lower 90s this weekend.

- Above normal temperatures continue during the early to middle
  part of next week, with at least isolated showers and
  thunderstorms possible over portions of the region each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

While currently quiet over SE Texas early today, there is an ongoing
convective system moving across NE Texas, which has potential to
reach the northern borders of our CWA a few hours from now. Broadly
the parameter space is weaker, especially for thermodynamics, and
model guidance shows these storms dying off as their reach our area
early today. However, I wouldn`t completely rule out a risk of
one of these stronger storms managing to hold together by the time
it reaches our area. We`ll also have a similar risk of severe
storms during the daytime as well. SFC CAPE should reach around
1700-3500 J/KG with 500mb shear around 30-45 knots. The severe
weather threat has largely continued to trend further
north/northeast, with more favorable lift edging further out of
our area today and even moreso on Sunday. Even still, steep
midlevel lapse rates of 7.0-8.0 DegC/km and particularly deep CAPE
around -10C to -30C still suggest the potential for larger hail.
CAMs are bear on convection throughout the weekend due to a cap
around 850mb, though again it may take just a singular shortwave
or impulse to overcome the cap, so we`ll continue to keep a
particular close eye on things through each afternoon in case any
storms can manage to pull together.

For next week, a shortwave trough is still expected to fill
northeast across the Plains, sending a cold front towards SE
Texas. This front should slow and stall around the Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods, though some isolated showers and storms are
still in play for our northern zones. A subtropical mid-level high
then builds in from the south on Tuesday, establishing more zonal
flow aloft and allowing for another series of shortwaves and
impulses to move over SE Texas. Expect rising rain chances through
late next week. Around Friday, another mid/upper level shortwave
trough will move through Texas, pushing a more robust cold front
through the area. Anticipate cooler and breezy weather heading
into the next weekend.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Widespread MVFR ceilings with intermittent periods of IFR ceilings
will continue over through the morning hours before ceilings lift
to VFR by 18Z. MVFR ceilings may linger into the late
morning/early afternoon hours along the coast. Southeasterly to
southerly winds will prevail today with wind speeds around 5-10
kt. Another round of MVFR to IFR ceilings expected to filter in
from south to north later this evening into Sunday morning. There
is potential for reduced visibilities as well due to patchy fog
mainly in the 09Z-14Z timeframe on early Sunday morning.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds should continue through the
next several days. Elevated water levels around 2.5 to 3.0 feet
above MLLW are expected at each high tide cycle through early next
week. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day
through the weekend. A slight increase in winds and seas are
expected beginning around Tuesday next week.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  89  70  90  73 /  10  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  90  73  91  74 /  10   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  82  74  82  75 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion