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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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414
FXUS64 KHGX 120506
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1206 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing heat risk with "feels-like" temperatures around
  97-107 degrees (36-42 Celsius) through at least this weekend.

- Rip Current Statement in effect through Friday morning for Gulf-
  facing beaches. Rip Risk is likely to continue into next week.

- Risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding from Sunday night
  through around Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Friday through the first half of the weekend is still a persistence
forecast squarely focused on heat due to subtropical ridging aloft.
Heights within the midlevel ridge aloft are still forecast to be
around 590-593 dam, within the 80-95th climatological percentile for
this time of the year. Subsidence from this ridge should inhibit
storm development to a degree, though isolated rain chances remain,
especially during the early morning and afternoon hours. For today
specifically, CAMs are looking much more optimistic on convection,
mainly as the remnants of a weak backdoor boundary are progged to
push into the area from the northeast. HREF paintballs suggests
better chances for thunderstorms generally north of the Houston
areas across the Brazos Valley/Piney Wood areas, though I wouldn`t
fully rule out thunderstorms elsewhere. Highs are forecasted to
reach the upper 80s to mid 90s (31-36 Celsius) with lows in the 70s
to lower 80s (21-27 Celsius). Afternoon dewpoints are still
anticipated to remain in the 70s (20-26 Celsius) each day. As a
result, heat indices and "feels-like" temperatures are forecasted to
reach 97-107 degrees (36-42 Celsius) over these next few days. WBGT
heat stress is forecasted to be high, though some hot spots could
see isolated pockets of Extreme heat stress during portions of the
afternoon, as we saw yesterday. Sensitive groups or those not
acclimated to the summer weather of Houston will be especially at
risk of experiencing heat illness. If you plan to spend time
outdoors, again, make sure to drink plenty of water to stay
hydrated.

If you have any beach plans within the next 7 days, make sure to
watch out for rip currents. Swim near a lifeguard, if possible, and
be sure to avoid swimming near any rocks, jetties, and piers where
rip currents frequently occur.

The weather pattern will begin to shift on Sunday into next week as
a mid/upper level trough digs into the Plains. This feature is still
expected to shove the subtropical ridge further south, lowering
heights over SE Texas. Though, the ridge will remain fairly potent
throughout the daytime on Sunday, keeping one more day of hot
weather in place. Still mostly a persistence forecast in all but
rain chances, so anticipate more upper 80s/lower 90s temps and
triple digit heat indicies.

That night, the cold front associated with the trough will
be making it`s way south towards SE Texas. Ahead of the FROPA, PWs
are progged to surge to 2.0-2.3 inches as shortwave energy pushes in
aloft as well. Forecast soundings ahead of the front early on Monday
become saturated, featuring a skinny CAPE profiles with weak corfidi
upshear winds, in addition to the typical deep warm cloud layer.
Model guidance shows the cold front stalling out over SE Texas. Too
early to say where specifically, but wherever it does stall, it`ll
focus convection and amplify showers/storms along the boundary.
ECMWF EFI values for QPF are forecasted to range form 0.6-0.8 with
SoT values nearing 1 further NE of our area, providing some more
credence to greater rainfall potential early in the week. WPC has SE
Texas under a Marginal Risk (Level 1/4) of Excessive Rainfall Sunday
night, increasing to a Slight Risk (level 2/4) on Monday of next
week. The heavy rainfall threat also looks to continue through
portions of Tuesday before tapering off into Wednesday as the
frontal boundary lifts north. Rainfall totals late Sunday through
Tuesday are forecasted to range from around 1-3 inches though higher
amounts to around 5 inches cannot be ruled out. While soil moisture
is fairly dry, heavy rains over a short period could still result in
flash flooding, especially if this rainfall occurs over urban/low
lying areas. The specifics of the heavy rainfall threat may change
these next few days, so stay tuned for further updates.

Cooler weather and daily rain chances are expected Wednesday through
the end of the work week.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Southeasterly winds remain in the 10-15KT range at all sites to
start this TAF period, with occasional gusts around 20KT included
at some sites. Gusts drop off and winds will gradually lower
overnight while veering to the SSE. In the overnight and early
morning hours, an MVFR deck is forecast to move in from the east,
lowering CIGS at sites generally north of I-10. Persistence
forecasting hints that sites south of I-10 may see some off and on
MVFR CIGS during this time frame, though confidence is lower.
Some models hint at an area IFR CIGS at KCLL and KUTS during the
overnight and early morning hours as well. CIGS are expected to
lift and scatter out by mid morning. Winds gradually build back to
around 10KT and shift back to southeasterly by tomorrow
afternoon. A couple of short-lived showers could effect areas
along and around I-10 tomorrow afternoon, with PoPs of 15-20%.

MLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds are expected throughout
the rest of the work week with seas of 2 to 5 feet. Caution flags
may be warranted at times over the next few days, especially this
weekend as seas near 6 to 7 feet offshore. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day with rain chances rising
over the weekend into early next week. A high risk of rip currents
is anticipated almost daily for the foreseeable future.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  93  77  93  76 /  20  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)  92  78  92  77 /  10  10  20   0
Galveston (GLS)  88  82  88  82 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 10 AM CDT Friday for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...MLG
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion