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253
FXUS64 KHGX 131111
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
511 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant, dry weather expected today and tonight.

- Rain chances return late this weekend as a couple of upper level
  disturbances push into the region. Locally heavy rainfall
  possible Sunday.

- Colder and dry Monday-Tuesday followed by a gradual warming
  trend during the second half of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1105 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

SE TX sits under clear skies, with light winds and dry air
persisting into the overnight hours. Satellite derived estimates
show that PWATs remain at 0.4-0.6 inches, which is much below
average... near the 10th percentile for this time of year. A surface
high over central TX and weak mid- upper level ridging just to our
west supports benign weather for today. The combination of clear
skies, dry air, and light winds sets the stage for radiational
cooling through early this morning. Expect lows in the 40s in the
Brazos Valley region, and low 50s elsewhere. The ridge moves east
across central CONUS throughout the day, leading to subsidence
across the region and suppressed rain chances. Additionally, an
850mb high moves into SE TX from the west, further strengthening
subsidence and keeping stable air locked in place. Temperatures
remain cool at the 850mb level, making Friday`s high temps slightly
cooler (low to mid 70s). All this to say, another cool and dry day
with clear skies expected today. Heading into this evening and
overnight, the upper levels moisten up, thus, high level clouds
begin to fill in. That dry air continues to filter in at the
surface, keeping lows in the 40s near the Brazos Valley region and
50s-60s elsewhere.

On Saturday morning, a surface high anchors over the midwest. As the
high strengthens, the pressure gradient across SE TX tightens, thus,
breezier conditions and occasional gusty winds can be anticipated
throughout the day. Onshore flow returns, and inflow from the Gulf
moistens the lower levels through the afternoon and evening; PWATS
return to more average levels (~1 inch). On Saturday
afternoon/evening, a shortwave trough is evident at mid-upper
levels, with vort maxes embedded along the trough traveling across
SE TX. Thus, rain chances return starting Saturday afternoon,
continuing overnight. The mid levels remain fairly dry during this
time, plus the main synoptic flow remains weak ridging. This
suppresses the chance for convection, and Saturdays rain should
mostly consist of showers. Regardless of rain chances, Saturday will
be much cloudier than previous days. This allows for cooler daytime
highs.

Sunday is where things start to get interesting. Troughing over NW
CONUS deepens until eventually, a "cut-off low" feature breaks away
on Sunday near the TX Panhandle. The low extends down to the
surface, with a front attached. Ahead of the front, the pressure
gradient tightens further, allowing for an increase in winds and
gusts. Warm, moist air continues to advect inland from the Gulf,
bringing PWATs back up towards the 90th percentile (1.5 inches).
This places SE TX within the warm sector of this low pressure
system, increasing chances for thunderstorms (though the chance for
severe weather is still uncertain). Regardless, a soggy Sunday is in
store; WPC has placed a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) over SE TX.
Minor street flooding may occur, particularly where high rain rates
persist for extended periods of time. The rain continues into Sunday
evening, until the cold front pushes south through the region. Most
likely timing from latest guidance is a FROPA late Sunday night into
early Monday morning.

Behind the front, cooler and drier air returns. Monday is shaping up
to be quite a chilly day. Post-frontal N/NE winds remain elevated
throughout the day Monday, and cold air advection really helps
temperatures remain cool. Grab some hot chocolate because there`s a
decent chance that *high* temperatures stay below 60F. Latest
guidance shows a ~70% chance for Monday`s high temps to remain below
60F in the Brazos Valley region, ~50% in Houston, and ~30% near the
coast. Overnight lows took to dip into the mid 40s to mid 50s across
the region. Yup, I`m definitely gonna need that hot chocolate!

By Tuesday, ridging builds back into the region. A slight warming
trend persists through mid week, though NE flow helps temperatures
remain mild and drier air to stick around. Highs top out in the 60s-
70s, and overnight lows in the 50s and 60s. Another round of
shortwave action appears later in the work week as the ridge
weakens, thus, rain chances may return by then.

MLG/JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 511 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail today and tonight with light winds. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1105 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Benign marine conditions with light onshore winds and low seas will
prevail today. Marine conditions will begin to deteriorate late
tonight through early next week as the next weather system
approaches from the west and drags a cold front through the region.
Moderate to strong onshore winds and building seas will gradually
increase after midnight, with seas reaching the 7 to 10 ft range
Saturday and Sunday. There will also be a potential for near-gale
force conditions, particularly on Sunday ahead and along the FROPA.
The front is forecast to reach the coastal waters Sunday night into
Monday. Small Craft Advisories will likely be issued today and will
potentially persist through early next week.

We will continue to monitor water levels as guidance suggests levels
at or above 3.0 ft MLLW, particularly during times of high tides
Saturday night into early Sunday and then again Sunday night into
Monday.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  49  69  52 /   0   0  10  50
Houston (IAH)  75  52  66  55 /   0   0  10  30
Galveston (GLS)  72  63  69  64 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MLG
AVIATION...47
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion