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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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283
FXUS64 KHGX 282336
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
636 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Keeping an eye on NE Tx later this afternoon for storm
  development. Remnants of some of these storms could sink into
  parts of the area later this evening.

- Good chances of showers/storms across the northern half of SE Tx
  during the midweek period.

- Late April cold front, and associated storms, will push through
  the area Friday and Friday night followed by cooler and breezy
  conditions in its wake.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

For the rest of the afternoon and tonight:
We`ll be watching severe storm development along the Red
River/ArkLaTex region ahead of a frontal boundary. The tail end of
some of these storms are forecast to push into the the Piney Woods
7pm-midnight. Some localized strong-severe cells will be possible
with damaging winds & hail the primary threat. With the loss of
heating, most guidance weakens/dissipates this activity as
remnants sag south...though it should be noted that a subset of
some of the 12z HREF members indicate the potential for some
healthy cells to make it as far south as the metro area and parts
of the Galveston Bay...so let`s monitor trends as the
evening/night progresses.

Wed-Thurs:
Aforementioned front and/or outflow boundary should pull up
nearly stationary and meander across northern parts of the CWA.
Daytime heating, the weak stalled boundary, and some mid/upper
level Pacific disturbances riding up and over the ridge situated
Mexico and south Tx, will generate additional rounds of showers
and tstms during this time period. Higher coverage and rain
chances will generally be north of I-10 into the Brazos Valley and
Piney Woods. Most activity should occur in the daytime, but it`s
difficult to pin down timing on these weaker springtime
disturbances.

Fri-Fri night:
A deeper mid level trof will approach from the west and am
anticipating a low level wave to initiate along the stalled
frontal boundary. As this wave & front pushes east-southeast,
shower and thunderstorms can be expected areawide. Some might be
locally heavy considering low level focusing/focus, some upper
diffluence, and resident PW`s ~2". Training cells can`t be ruled
out.

Total forecast rains between now and Sat morning:
Accumulations in the 2-4" range expected north of I-10, tapering
down to closer to 0.75-1.0" along the immediate coast. There will
of course be localized possibilities to see those amounts occur in
an hour or two where any of the strongest cells emerge/train.

Weekend and early next week:
Precip will taper off areawide Sat morning along with much cooler
and breezy conditions in the wake of the front. Lows will be in
the 50s and highs in the 70s Sat-Sun...followed by a slow
modifying trend early in the week as onshore flow resumes. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Cigs are expected to lower across the region once again this
evening into tonight. We continue to monitor TSRA to our north.
These storms should push southward, closer to our region. Though
storms are predicted to weaken, we have opted to keep TSRA PROB30s
for late tonight in our northernmost terminals (CLL, UTS) while
CXO and IAH have a SHRA PROB30. Even if these showers/storms fall
apart, we cannot rule out an outflow boundary resulting in a brief
wind shift to the north or northeast, especially in our northern
terminals. We`ll monitor trends and amend as necessary. Chance of
SHRA/TSRA increases by late morning and early afternoon tomorrow,
especially north of I-10. Based off recent trends, we are likely
to amend TAFs to suggest higher SHRA/TSRA chances in future
updates.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

SE winds generally in the 13g20kt and seas in the 4-5ft range
will continue for the next several days. Let`s keep an eye on
storm development in north Texas later this afternoon as it sags
into parts of SE TX this evening. Though the vast majority of
guidance suggests this activity will die off well north of the
coast, a subset of models indicate the potential for some isolated
remnant storms to make it as far south as Galveston Bay in the
1-4am timeframe.

A cold front, and associated storms, is forecast to move into the
region Friday and off the coast Friday evening. Combination of
much cooler temperatures moving in over the warm water, NNE should
significantly ramp up into the 25-35kt range...potentially
requiring Gale Warnings into early Saturday afternoon. Seas will
build to 6-12ft.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  83  67  81 /  30  70  50  40
Houston (IAH)  75  91  72  86 /  20  40  20  30
Galveston (GLS)  77  83  74  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion