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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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026
FXUS64 KHGX 010612
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1212 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Abnormally low water levels in Galveston Bay will continue
  through at least Thursday`s low tide cycle. Continued low water
  is likely due to the very low astronomical tides occurring.

- After a short cold stretch, weather is warming through normal on
  its way back to a warm period late in the week. Look for highs
  on Friday to reach back into the 70s and lower 80s, with low
  potential to get even warmer.

- Our next cold front looks to arrive early this weekend, but it
  looks to be a weekend. There is a very low chance - less than 15
  percent - for brief, light showers, with a modest dip in
  temperatures for the weekend. With forecast highs in the 70s,
  even post-frontal temps will be above average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1212 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Well, cold lovers, hopefully y`all enjoyed this sharp, but very
short bit of cold weather because we now have onshore flow
returning with southerly to southwesterly winds, and the return of
warmer, more humid air. In fact, despite starting Wednesday with
a widespread light freezing affecting all but the core of Houston
and the immediate Gulf coast, highs in the afternoon were already
above average for the final day of 2025.

With onshore flow in place, we`ll continue to warm up through
Friday. Though a few warm spots managed to reach 70 to wrap up
2025, almost the entire area outside of cool spots towards the
Piney Woods should reach into the lower 70s to begin 2026. Friday
looks warmer still, as most places away from the coast look to
crack back up above the 80 degree mark. The very warmest spots in
the rural west look to make a run for the mid 80s! In a forecast
that may be a bit aggressive, I swapped the deterministic NBM for
the NBM`s median of the distribution again, which ends with a
slight boost to temps for most. Finding ourselves under an upper
trough, albeit a weak one, and ahead of the arrival of our next
cold front, it seemed reasonable to hedge above the "official" NBM
numbers again, and hitting for the middle of the probabilistic
distribution seemed a good, conservative way of doing that. Of
course, as temps and especially dewpoints surge over waters that
have been cooled mostly into the upper 50s, we can probably look
for some coastal fog to sneak back into the picture...perhaps as
early as Thursday night, but I`m hoping we can hold things off
until Friday night. The southwesterly wind direction is a poor one
for dense fog development, but with these dewpoints over those
water temps, some patchy fog appears likely.

And while some cooler temps lie beyond Friday`s torchy day as a
front moves through very early Saturday, don`t expect anything
close to a repeat of the last cold front. This is instead, a weak
Pacific front. If it weren`t getting a boost from a trough
passing by through the Great Plains at the same time, I wouldn`t
even knock down temperatures at all this weekend. But, with that
extra little bit of help, I`m content to follow the NBM in a slide
back down into the 70s. Cooler than Friday will be for sure, but
still a decent margin warmer than early January averages for the
area.

Another low-end possibility with this frontal passage is a few
light showers. This front will be too weak to be a proper focus
for frontal convection, so don`t be looking for that. But with
plenty of moisture and some light isentropic upglide ahead of and
on the frontal surface, I could see us squeezing out a small
handful of extremely light showers here and there. Accumulation
would likely be a trace, and certainly not more than a few
hundredths, so my PoPs for this are still less than 15 percent and
not enough to even trigger slight chance wording...as the
probability of measurable rain at any one spot will be that low.
But somewhere in the area? Getting some traces? I could see that
happening.

Beyond the front, I continue to roll with NBM pretty close to
verbatim, as there are no strong signals for any sort of
specifically meaningful trends in the weather, and the best choice
is almost certainly to stick with something close to the
consensus of the model guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 435 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

VFR conditions prevail with winds becoming southwesterly to
south-southwesterly around 5-7 kt later this morning, then
becoming light and variable again this evening.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1212 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Low water conditions continue for Galveston Bay and will continue
deeper into the week stretch of very low astronomical tides. The
low water advisory has been extended through Thursday, and are
very likely to need to continue into the weekend. Friday is a
somewhat ambiguous day, as low tides may come above the typical
threshold for a low water advisory, but only by a small amount
before heading back below the threshold for Saturday`s low tide
cycle.

Southerly to southwesterly winds have developed today, and
will continue through Friday. With these winds, humidity will
increase enough that patchy fog can develop during the overnight
hours Thursday night and Friday night, but there is still
considerable uncertainty in how significant fog development will
be. It seems reasonable to expect at least some patchy fog, and
the forecast reflects that, with potential for more dense spots if
conditions align properly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  40  73  59  84 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  43  73  61  84 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  52  69  63  74 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ335.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Luchs

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion