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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

018
FXUS64 KHGX 062325
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
525 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mariners navigating in the shallows of upper Galveston Bay will
  need to continue to exercise caution through low tide cycles
  where negative tide levels are anticipated.

- Warmer weather is expected through midweek next week.

- A chance showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday as a weak
  disturbance moves through the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1111 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

An upper-level ridge will remain dominate over the region through
the weekend allowing for mostly clear skies, dry conditions, and
warm temperatures. High temperatures this afternoon will rise
into the upper 70s for most of the region, which is about 15
degrees above normal. High temperatures will remain in the mid to
upper 70s through Monday. Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s
to low 50s tonight and Saturday night. South-southeasterly winds
begin on Sunday bringing increasing moisture to the area, and thus
helping us stay warmer during the overnight periods. Minimum
temperatures expected to be in the mid to upper 50s Sunday night,
and then upper 50s to low 60s Monday night. The increased moisture
will also lead to the possibly of fog during the late night/early
morning periods through the first few days of next week.

An upper-level low will be swinging through Baja California Sunday
night into Monday morning, and then pass through Texas Monday
night through Tuesday. Shortwave troughs out ahead of the main
disturbance will begin to pass through SE Texas as early as
Tuesday morning, and then the main disturbance moving through
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. This will lead to a chance
of scattered showers and thunderstorms for most of the day on
Tuesday. We will continue to monitor the potential for strong to
severe storms on Tuesday, but confidence is low this far out.
There will be a jetstreak moving overhead, and long range models
showing decent shear over the region, but there is uncertainty on
how much moisture/instability there will be to work with ahead of
the disturbance.

Thanks to increased cloud cover and rain chances, Tuesday will be
slightly cooler with highs in the low to mid 70s for most of the
region (but this is still 5-10 degrees above normal). Wednesday
will potentially be the warmest day of the week thanks to strong
high pressure building behind the exiting disturbance with high
temperatures potentially climbing into the low 80s for parts of
the region.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 522 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

VFR. Light VRB winds tonight through Sat morning. Winds increase
to 5-10 KTS and turn ESE Sat morning, and then turn SE Sat
evening. Some patchy fog is possible over portions of SE TX late
Sat night into early Sun morning.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1111 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Small craft in the coastal waters should continue to exercise
caution through this afternoon as westerly winds around 15kt with
gusts to 20kt will persist. Winds will become light tonight, then
shift easterly Saturday morning following the passage of a weak,
dry front. There may be a brief period during the late morning to
early afternoon when gusts may increase to around 20kt, but
otherwise winds will be 10-15kt through the day. Light
southeasterly winds expected by Saturday night that will continue
through midweek next week. The onshore flow will increase moisture
to the region, so monitoring the potential of patchy fog in the
northern parts of the Bays where inland fog may spill over into
the bays.
`
Abnormally low waters levels are still expected in the northern
parts of Galveston Bay through the weekend, with low tides around
0.5 to 0.75ft below MLLW.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  47  77  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  50  74  50  76 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  54  61  55  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 PM CST this evening
     for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...Fowler

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion