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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

721
FXUS64 KHGX 271000
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
500 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance of a strong to severe storm Today and Tuesday.

- Above normal temperatures in the 80s/mid 90s through Wednesday.
  Cooler with rising rain chances afterwards.

- Late April cold front should push through the area Friday night
  with cooler and breezy wx in its wake.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

A shortwave trough is expected to fill northeast through the Plains,
sending a cold front towards SE Texas. As mentioned over the last
several days, this front will more than likely slow and eventually
stall out. CAMs are pretty well aligned with these surface features,
showing a dry line stalled out around Central TX (spanning SW to
NE), with the aforementioned cold front stalled near the Red River
Valley (Running mostly W to E). Closer to our area, CAMs are showing
sparse convection with low rain chance. This is, again courtesy of
some decent capping beginning around 850mb, with warmer & drier air
from the southwest. And just as we`ve been saying these last several
days, the broader environment across the region is still fairly
potent for severe weather. SFC CAPE is still progged to be around
1700-3500 J/KG with 6km shear around 35-45 knots. Decent instability
and organization for any storms, if they can manage to pull
together. I sound like such a broken record to keep mentioning this
over the last several days, but unfortunately we continue to find
ourself in this pattern I would call "Non-Zero SVR Threat." There is
a fairly strong chance we don`t see much of any showers & storms in
the afternoon, like previous days. However, if any storms can pull
together (whether it be from the sea breeze, a passing shortwave, or
some kind of outflow from the norther half of the state), then we
could see an isolated severe storm, with mainly strong winds and
large hail.

On Tuesday Subtropical high pressure builds in from the south. This
should establish a mostly zonal flow pattern aloft, allowing
several shortwave impulses to pass over the region throughout the
next several days. CAMs are still bear on convection, but overall it
appears that rain chances should rise throughout the next several
days. With those rising rain chances for Tuesday, we`ll still have
this rather potent environment with SFC CAPE around 1500-3500 J/KG
or so with 6km shear around 35-45 knots. Forecast soundings bear a
strong resemblance to that of Monday, though 00z CAM guidance does
suggest a weaker CAP with steep midlevel lapse rates of 8.0-8.6
DegC/KM. Even if the CAMs aren`t showing much yet, I`d still say the
severe wx threat for Tuesday is a tad higher than simply "non-zero."
Presently, SPC has a marginal risk bordering our northern counties,
on Tuesday. Wouldn`t be entirely shocked if this risk was eventually
nudged southward into our northern tier of counties at some point.
Either way, its another afternoon of closely watching the radar to
see if anything pops up.

Rain chances continue to rise into Wednesday as a weak cold front
pushes into SE Texas. This front will stall out somewhere over the
area, though on the whole this should spell slightly cooler
conditions through Thursday. On Friday, a stronger mid/upper level
shortwave trough will begin to fill through the southern Plains.
This should bring widespread showers and scattered storms throughout
the day, along with sending a stronger cold front our way late
Friday night. Breezy conditions and cooler weather follow on
Saturday, with lingering rain chances throughout the day, tapering
off into Sunday morning.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 500 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Widespread MVFR ceilings will continue through the late morning
before lifting to VFR. MVFR ceilings may linger into the afternoon
closer to the coast. Another round of breezy southerly winds today
with sustained winds around 10-15 kt and gusts up to 20-25 kt this
afternoon. MVFR ceilings filter in again this evening into Tuesday
morning with the potential for intermittent periods of IFR
ceilings. There is a low potential for an isolated shower/storm
or two near the northern terminals late this afternoon/evening, so
no mention in any of those TAFs at this time.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue through the next
several days. Elevated water levels around 2.5 to 3.0 feet above
MLLW are still expected at each high tide cycle early this week. A
slight increase in winds and seas are expected beginning around
Tuesday next week. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible each day with higher rain chances Wednesday though the end
of the next work week. A modest cold front should bring moderate to
strong offshore winds Friday night into next weekend, likely
warranting at least small craft advisories.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  90  74  92  72 /  20  10  20  20
Houston (IAH)  89  76  91  74 /  10   0  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  83  77  84  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion