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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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206
FXUS64 KHGX 191106
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
606 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and dry conditions to prevail.

- Heat will be hazardous and near advisory criteria through early
  next week. Regardless of whether an advisory is in effect on
  any given day, heat precautions/messaging remain the same for
  those with plans or working outdoors.

- Guidance hinting at possible disturbance that could bring a
  chance of a few showers or thunderstorms Friday evening. Chance
  of rain is considered low at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

A mid/upper, zonally elongated ridge centered over Texas has begun
its westward drift and is amplifying as it does so. The primary
impact this will have on the Wednesday atmosphere is a gradual
shallowing of LL onshore flow. Tuesday featured deeper onshore
flow (sfc to at least 500 MB), allowing for more cumulus and even
a few isolated showers/storms on the sea breeze boundary. But we
expect the mid-levels (~500MB) to shift to a more northerly
trajectory later on Wednesday, which would have a tendency to
lessen cumulus and decrease (though perhaps not totally eliminate)
the chance of isolated sea breeze showers and storms. The high
should amplify further, deepening the northerly flow aloft down
to 850MB and limiting onshore flow to near the sfc. This will
support an increasingly dry profile, allowing for lower dew points
to mix down to the surface. But on the flip side, drier air along
with less cumulus and stronger ridging will likely give
temperatures a boost, with most inland areas expected to rise
above 100 degrees Thursday through the weekend. Despite the
potential for less humidity, actual temperatures could approach
Heat Advisory criteria (actual temp 103+, heat index 108+) in some
areas. One little wild card in the forecast entails vort maxes
embedded in the northerly flow aloft that could provide enough
lift for some shower and thunderstorm activity by the end of the
week / weekend. Some of the guidance is picking up on a potential
disturbance Friday evening. So we can`t totally rule out this
pattern producing isolated showers/storms despite the overall dry
and hot signal.

The dry and hot pattern is expected to continue into next week. So
brace yourselves for continued hazardous heat. August is gonna
August.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Cloud decks around 900-1800 ft have developed this morning with
some isolated spots of MVFR CIGS. CIGS will clear out and decks
will lift with daytime heating this morning. VFR Conditions
prevail throughout the daytime with winds shifting S/SE in the
afternoon. Winds slowly diminish in the evening, shifting SW
overnight. FEW/SCT cloud decks around 1000-2000 ft develop early
Thursday morning with brief MVFR CIGS in spots.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Light to moderate south to southwest winds are expected through
early next week. Winds could gust up to 20 knots during the late
afternoon and evening in the bays, and overnight into the early
morning hours in the Gulf. Seas in the open Gulf are expected to
average 2-4 feet

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 101  77 102  78 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH) 100  79 100  80 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  91  84  91  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...03
MARINE...CMW

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion