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922
FXUS64 KHGX 252339 AAA
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
639 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms through
  Tuesday

- Next storm system moves into the area late Tuesday night and
  Wednesday. Will be monitoring the potential for some localized
  strong storms and/or heavy rain.

- Less active weather anticipated during the second half of the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Water vapor imagery currently shows a trough right overtop of SE
Texas with some isolated showers/storms near the coast this
afternoon. CAMs keep convective activity sparse inland compared to
the waters, though there is a slight signal for a scattered cluster
of wrap-around activity to the northwest, reaching the Brazos Valley
later in the afternoon. Still, the bulk of the showers/storms are
expected to be around the coast over the next several hours, later
tapering off tonight. Rainfall totals today should also be pretty
hit or miss. Most spots will not get any rain, others only a brief
shower/storm with totals generally under an inch. However, there is
still a weak signal for some localized higher downpours with totals
in the range of 1-3 inches. Even if storms manage to
train/overperform, 1 HR FFG for SE Texas is 2.75-3.5" inches, thus
much of the region should be able to manage these rainfall amounts.
In summary, the flood risk for Memorial day is too low to warrant
any outlook from WPC. If anything, thunderstorms are the more
immediate concern given the influx of beach goers for Memorial
day. When thunder roars, go indoors!

On Tuesday, the trough overhead will fill N/NNE. NVA and a pocket of
drier air sliding in overhead should decrease rain chances slightly
during the daytime. Isolated, pulsy showers/storms will still be
possible, especially later in the afternoon around peak. Another
brief downturn in PoPs is progged to occur in the evening as
instability wanes, though activity is expected to pick up overnight.

Overnight through early Wednesday looks to be the main period of
disruptive weather in the forecast. Aloft, another upper level
shortwave trough should dig into the western half of the state. As
it does, a cluster of showers & thunderstorms will propagate along
this feature, tracking with robust PVA and a diffluent region aloft.
PWs surge to roughtly 1.8-2.1 over SE Texas as this system
approaches our area. Timing generally favors this complex of
showers/storms reaching SE Texas after midnight, during the early
morning hours of Wednesday. Intensity and timing is still rather
variable between models, though CAMs keep the bulk of the activity
west of I-45 prior to 7 AM on Wednesday. The trough itself does
appear to slow and elongate due to ridging over the Northern
Plains/Mississippi amplifying from omega blocking. As a result,
widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms should continue across
SE Texas throughout Wednesday, with activity slowly diminishing from
west to east overnight into Thursday morning as the trough moves out
of our area.

WPC has a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall covering
areas west of the Navasota/Brazos River from Tuesday night into
early Wednesday morning as the system enters SE Texas. All of SE
Texas will be under a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall
throughout Wednesday, covering the apex of the heaviest rains
through early Thursday morning. Areas east of the Navasota/Brazos
River will be under a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive
rainfall on Thursday to cover lingering showers as the heavy rain
threat diminishes. Rainfall totals are still forecasted to range
from roughtly 1-2 inches, though locally higher amounts to 3-5
inches will still be possible. Soils are still slightly saturated
(~30% near the coast) from recent heavy rains, and thus will be
slightly more prone to runoff than areas further inland. Street
flooding could occur, especially in urban and low lying areas.
Remember to monitor the forecast and turn around if you encounter
flooded roadways!

Quieter weather sets in on Friday as ridging amplifies over the
Plains. A few disturbances and impulses may undercut the ridge and
pass through SE Texas, keeping daily rain chances in the forecast
heading into the weekend. A closed low passing through the
northeastern CONUS may send a weak backdoor cold front to SE Texas
on Sunday. Still several days out, though if it does reach SE Texas
we can anticipate an uptick in rain chances through Sunday into
early next week.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

A few SHRA/TSRA have developed along a line from Burleson to Houston
County in the last hour. These storms are up-and-down in nature, so
prolonged impact to any location is unlikely. However, they are
developing near KCLL and KUTS, so brief impacts to those terminals
are possible to likely, especially KCLL. These storms should taper
off around 03z, though showers may linger until 05-06z. Otherwise,
VFR conditions should prevail through the evening hours. Another
round of MVFR ceilings/visibility are likely tonight, mainly at
terminals along and east/north of I-45/I-10. Highest confidence is
at KCXO, with low to medium confidence of occurrence at KIAH.
Through tomorrow, general southerly to southeast winds take shape,
and a few isolated showers may develop near the coast in the
afternoon with low chances of impact at TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Light east-northeast winds continue this afternoon, shifting
southeast this evening then later increasing on Tuesday. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times, especially
during the afternoon hours. The next weather system and significant
round of storms will push into the waters early Wednesday morning.
Expect widespread showers and embedded storms throughout Wednesday,
some of which may be strong. Expect higher winds, seas and reduced
visibility in and around thunderstorms. Rain chances decrease from
west to east overnight with lingering showers/storms on Thursday.
Isolated rain chances continue through the end of the work week.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  70  88  72  78 /  20  20  70  90
Houston (IAH)  72  88  75  81 /  20  20  40 100
Galveston (GLS)  77  85  79  84 /  10  20  40  90

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...CG
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion