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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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183
FXUS64 KHGX 082345
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
545 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and muggy tonight. Threat of sea fog redevelopment near the
  coast.

- Next weather system approaches the area Friday with
  increasing shower and isolated storm chances.

- Cold frontal passage Friday night followed by a return to winter
  this weekend into early next week..

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

All signs point toward some more record highs being set this
afternoon. Gusty south winds should diminish overnight which
should allow for some late night sea fog development for those
close to the coast. Elevated dewpoints should keep min temps in
the upper 60s-low 70s again.

PW`s will linger in the 1.5-1.7" range Friday in advance of the
next wx system taking shape and moving closer to the area. Thermal
profile (capping) shouldn`t be as much of a limiting factor for
shower/tstm initiation as it was today. Am anticipating some
increasing precip development/coverage in the mid-late morning
hours, moreso north of the I-10 corridor, to gradually expand
southward during the afternoon and evening hours as the
prefrontal trof slowly sags southward through the region
(eventually off the coast midnight-ish). Cannot rule out a few
embedded stronger storms across our area, though the best
instability/shear/dynamics look to mostly be situated further to
our ene. We`ll be situated in a Marginal Risk of severe wx (level
1 of 5) or a 5-15% overall shot of seeing some damaging winds or
hail). Cold front itself should be 3-6 hours behind the initial
wind shift and finally bring a return to winter temps back to SE
TX for the weekend. NE parts of the CWA may even see a light
freeze Sunday night.

A brief onshore flow resumes later Monday with just some modest
temp rises. Though there are no POPs currently advertised, there
are a mix of deterministic models that want to bring a weak,
decaying shortwave across Tuesday and produce some qpf and
something we`ll keep an eye on in regards to trends. Otherwise,
amplifying mid level ridge to our west and digging trof to our
east should make for a favorable pattern for another frontal
passage toward midweek. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 545 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Complicated forecast cycle ahead for details, but broad strokes
are confident - smattering of showers moves off to the east,
replaced by MVFR conditions for most, as low as IFR for some.
Anticipating best conditions for most urban Houston terminals,
while exurban and northern sites manage IFR CIGs, and sea fog
impacts coastal sites. Sketched out timing as best I could, but
will require monitoring through the evening and overnight hours to
make sure TAF tracks with reality.

Tomorrow also looks complicated with pre-frontal trough and trough
approaching. SHRA could start to emerge as early as 12Z for
northernmost sites, and throughout the day across the area. Best
chances likely to be in the afternoon and early evening. Starting
with VCs/PROB30s as rain should be more scattered than widespread,
but may be able to introduce TEMPO/Prevailing in later cycles
should confidence in impact to a specific terminal increases. For
now, keep TSRA mentions to northern terminals and IAH extended,
but future cycles will need to address this more broadly.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 127 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Gusty south winds and 5-8ft seas will gradually diminish this evening
and overnight. Will maintain the current caution/advisory flag
configuration for now and let the next shift evaluate whether they
can be re-configured or downgraded this evening. Speeds look to
become low enough for potential sea fog redevelopment later
tonight. Fog could become dense at times...especially the southern
bays and adjacent nearshore Gulf waters between midnight and noon
or so. A cold front, and associated showers and isolated storms,
is forecast to push off the coast late Friday night ending the
rain/fog chances and usher in moderate to strong offshore winds
and building seas in its wake on Saturday. Small Craft Advisories
will likely be required. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  64  75  47  58 /   0  70  40  10
Houston (IAH)  69  81  53  61 /  10  60  70  20
Galveston (GLS)  68  75  56  65 /  20  40  60  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 PM CST this evening
     for GMZ350-355.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion