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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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532
FXUS64 KHGX 140405
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1105 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and humid conditions continue through the end of the week.
  Heat index values in the 90s at the end of the work week.

- Rain chances increase over the weekend as a cold front moves
  into the region.

- Seasonal conditions expected in the wake of the front going into
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Tomorrow (or today depending on when you read this...whichever day
April 14th is) is Look Up at the Sky Day. You can start to observe
the holiday early by looking up at the sky early Tuesday morning to
observe the International Space Station flying over Space City. This
is highly dependent on the cloud coverage in your particular area
during the 6:04am to 6:10am timeframe...which will be mostly cloudy
for a lot of us. If you want to make an attempt at seeing it, look
to the southwestern horizon around 6:04am. It`ll be a bit low on the
horizon though (max altitude of 32 degrees), so you might have to
use your imagination. There will be plenty of blue skies to enjoy in
the afternoon though as drier air filters in as southwesterly flow
remains in place. Looking at 700mb, a pocket of much drier air moves
in from the southwest on Tuesday (along with slightly warmer
temperatures) leading to the development of a capping inversion
aloft. This will keep rain chances slim to none for most of
Southeast Texas through the end of the work week. Some under the cap
light showers can`t be ruled out during the afternoons.

The main exception to the slim to no rain chances comes on Wednesday
for portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods. As an upper
level trough sweeps through the central CONUS midweek, it will aid
in the development of storms off of a dry line over in western
Texas. It`s not entirely out of the question for a few storms to
clip portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods on Wednesday
afternoon/evening especially with favorable placement of a jet
streak (right entrance region) and a LLJ, but the storms will be
fighting an uphill battle if they move this direction due to
previously mentioned capping inversion.

PW values begin to increase towards the end of the work week, so
some isolated streamer showers cannot be ruled out. We`ll still have
that capping inversion aloft in place, so this potential is on the
low side...but not exactly zero. Temperatures will be on an upward
trend throughout the work week with highs in the low to mid 80s
through midweek. By the end of the work week, 850mb temperatures
increase leading to high temperatures peaking in the upper 80s. The
probability of high temperatures reaching the 90 degree mark are low
on Thursday/Friday, but they aren`t zero! Either way, the increased
low-level moisture will lead to heat index values in the low to mid
90s. Low temperatures will be mainly in the upper 60s to low 70s
through the work week. Going into the weekend is when the forecast
gets interesting once again as a cold front approaches.

I personally would like to take credit for this cold front (assuming
model trends hold) as I recently claimed that our next cold front
would be in 7 months. Mother Nature is looking to prove me wrong and
I will GLADLY take this L. An upper level trough with an embedded
upper low will transition from the Pacific Northwest on Thursday to
the Four Corners region by Friday. Surface low pressure subsequently
develops through lee cyclogenesis near Oklahoma/Kansas. This low
then travels northeastward towards the Great Lakes region, which
pushes a cold front into Southeast Texas late Saturday/early Sunday.
The exact timing is still a bit uncertain at this time, but there is
good consensus on PW values surging near or above the 90th
percentile (~1.57"). Showers and storms are likely along and
potentially ahead of the frontal boundary as it pushes through the
region. Showers may linger into Sunday. Northeasterly winds will be
a bit breezy in the wake of the front, especially near the coast
through Sunday.

It`s too early to be too specific on temperatures, but we can take a
look at things probabilistically again! The probability of high
temperatures below 80 degrees increases sharply to 70-90% for Sunday
and Monday. The probability for low temperatures below 60 degrees
increases to 50-70% for areas north of I-10 and 20-40% elsewhere for
Saturday night. For Sunday night, these probabilities increase to 60-
90% for the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods and 20-50% elsewhere. There`s
plenty of time for the forecast to change and evolve, but the
probabilities for seasonal temperatures are looking good! :D

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Lingering showers from this afternoon and early evening have
fully dissipated with expectations to not see much more tonight
thanks to building high pressure. Instead concerns will be more
focused on the cloud cover and the expected CIGs for the
overnight period as multiple CAMs suggest a return to MVFR CIGs by
around midnight. These conditions are expected to hold for most
of the TAF sites through the overnight and morning hours with most
CAMS not seeing a return to VFR until around noon tomorrow.
Otherwise, look for winds to once again pick up tomorrow afternoon
with gusts upwards of 20 to 23 kts possible at the surface.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow throughout the work
week. There will be periods where winds increase to the caution flag
threshold, especially Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and later
in the work week. Due to the persistent onshore flow, slightly
elevated water levels remain in the forecast throughout the work
week as P-ETSS guidance continues to reflect water levels reaching
2.5-3.0 ft above MLLW during times of high tide. While coastal
flooding is not a concern at this time, some wave run-up is
certainly possible along Gulf-facing beaches along with increased
risk of rip currents. A cold front and associated showers/storms are
expected to push offshore late Saturday/early Sunday bringing a
period of elevated offshore winds and seas that will likely prompt
Small Craft Advisories through the remainder of the weekend.

Batiste

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Still monitoring a few gauges that are either in or forecasted to
crest into action stage in the Lavaca/Navidad River basin following
Sunday`s heavy rainfall event. The Navidad River at Sublime (SBMT2)
is crested in action stage Monday afternoon/evening and has already
fallen below action stage. The Navidad River at Morales (MRAT2) is
forecast to crest into action stage early Tuesday morning, then fall
out of it by Wednesday morning. Lastly, the Navidad River at Strane
Park (LSNT2) is forecast to crest into action stage Tuesday evening,
then fall out of it around Wednesday afternoon. These rises are
based on routed flow from upstream. Remember that you can monitor
updated river forecasts via the NWS NWPS webpage
(https://water.noaa.gov/)

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  68  82  67  84 /   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)  70  84  70  84 /   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  73  79  72  79 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion