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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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489
FXUS64 KHGX 021747
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1147 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog will remain a possibility nightly through the next few
  nights.

- Unseasonably warm weather will continue through this week.

- Some isolated rainfall expected midweek, but there is potential
  for locally heavy rainfall this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1134 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

We`ll finish up the first day of the new work week with warm and
pleasant weather. Afternoon highs should reach the 70s/mid 80s with
overnight lows in the 60s. Several disturbances are anticipated to
pass north of our area throughout the work week, each of which will
attempt to send a cold front our way. The first of these fronts is
stalling near north-central Texas and should retreat north tonight.

The next front should be approaching SE Texas Wednesday
afternoon/evening, but it too looks like it will stall out near the
Red River Valley before reaching us. Even with the front to our
north, the influx of deeper moisture (1.3-1.6" PWs) and lift should
at least introduce some showers and thunderstorms to the forecast
beginning on Wednesday. Anticipate a lull in PoPs for Thursday as
the front retreats north. Otherwise, warm weather will be allowed to
continue through the work week with highs in the 70s/mid 80s with
lows in the 60s.

One more front should push towards SE Texas heading into the
weekend, and as it currently stands, this front has much better
chances of reaching our area. LREF ensembles have pushed back this
front more towards the Sunday time frame, and on the whole less
ensemble members are showing the northerly wind shift indicative
of a FROPA at KCLL, indicating that the front could very well
stall out just north of our area. In addition, different members
solutions seem to be more distinctly separated by suite with ENS
members leaning towards keeping the front out/north of SE Texas.
Current guidance still suggests better rain chances and overall
cooler temperatures through the weekend, though confidence in the
position of this front is low at the moment. With a stalled
boundary in the vicinity, deeper PWs of 1.5-1.8" and a robust
upper level low approaching from Baja California, locally heavy
rainfall will also be a concern throughout this weekend. Again,
it`s several days out and the specific details will likely change
as a result, so stay tuned for forecast updates.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 528 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Areas of patchy fog will continue through around 14-15Z across
portions of Southeast TX. The current IFR-MVFR conditions is
mainly due to low cloud decks, and are expected to lift and
scatter out during the mid morning period (shortly after 15Z). VFR
conditions expected for the rest of the day into early Mon night.
SE winds will be at 6-12 KTS today and 5-10 KTS tonight into Tue.
We will once again see low cloud decks develop late tonight into
early Tue along with some patchy fog.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1134 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Sea fog chances continue to decrease, but remain possible these next
few nights. If any develops, sea fog should be patchy in nature with
only isolated smaller pockets of dense sea fog during the early
morning hours. Light to moderate winds and low seas will continue
through the upcoming work week. Low rain chances return on
Wednesday, but are expected to increase this weekend ahead of
another possible cold front.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  63  85  66  84 /   0   0  10  40
Houston (IAH)  66  83  68  83 /   0  10   0  30
Galveston (GLS)  65  75  65  75 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion