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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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744
FXUS64 KHGX 131121
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
621 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and muggy today with scattered showers and isolated
  thunderstorms.

- Continued warmth through Thursday, though rain chances slightly
  diminish.

- A cold front is expected to push across the region on Friday
  bringing cooler, breezy, and drier conditions to the region this
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Surface/llvl high pressure to our will maintain a warm/humid
southeasterly flow today. Though there is some mid level ridging
overhead, PW`s holding in the 2.1-2.4" range, daytime heating, and
some modest llvl speed convergence should allow for scattered
precipitation again today. Higher chances/coverage look to be across
the eastern half of the CWA.

Heading into Wed-Thur, some recycled lower PW`s currently situated
across the NE Gulf should advect into the region and lower
overall rain chances (though still non-zero) and coverage.

Friday, a 1035-1041mb high will be sagging south through the
central CONUS and push a cold front through the region. We`ll
likely see a wind shift to the north early in the day (probably
with a prefrontal trof), but we should see the much drier, cooler,
and breezy conditions filter in later in the day and Friday
night. Who`s up for some lows in the 50s and highs in the
70s-low 80s this weekend?

A gradual modifying trend ensues early next week as high pressure
moves off to the east, an easterly wave tracks ewd near the Yucatan,
and our upper flow pattern transitions to the sw.  47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

MVFR w/ locally IFR cigs in our northern zones should lift to VFR
later this morning. Winds should remain out of the SE, and could
become gusty this afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered
SHRA/TSRA expected this afternoon, thus the PROB30s at some
terminals. Winds are expected to lighten up tonight, with sub VFR
conditions returning for our northern zones overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Moderate onshore winds and 3 to 5 foot seas will prevail
for the next several days. A prefrontal trough is forecast to push
off the coast Friday allowing for a NNE wind shift followed by the
front itself Friday night. Once the cooler air arrives and moves
over the warmer coastal waters, look for a substantial increase in
north-northeast winds and building seas Friday night and Saturday.
Small Craft Advisories will likely be required and some gale
conditions cannot be ruled out. Winds/seas should gradually
trend lower Saturday night and Sunday.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  93  76  93  70 /  20  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)  92  76  91  72 /  50  10  20  10
Galveston (GLS)  88  79  88  78 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion