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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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278
FXUS64 KHGX 010503
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1203 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, TROPICAL...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog possible during the overnight to early morning hours
  for the next couple of nights.

- Hot and humid conditions expected through mid-week. Make sure to
  be prepared for the heat if you plan to work or spend time
  outdoors.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this
  afternoon. Shower/storm chances increase Tuesday and going into
  the end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

As we head into meteorological summer (starts June 1st), it`s not
entirely a surprise that the temperatures have been fairly warm...or
dare I say hot. High temperatures on Sunday topped out mainly in the
low 90s and that`ll remain the case through midweek as ridging aloft
continues to prevail. With onshore flow prevailing early in the
week, moisture/humidity will gradually increase. Combine the high
temperatures in the low 90s and the elevated humidity and we get
heat index values peaking in the 99-105*F range through Tuesday.
With that in mind, if you have plans to be outdoors during the
afternoon hours early this week, be sure to take the proper
precautions to keep yourself safe from the heat. Take breaks, stay
hydrated, wear light-colored/loose clothing, and ALWAYS ALWAYS
ALWAYS look before you lock your vehicle. Don`t forget about your
pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand,
then it is too hot for their paws.

Now there will be potential for some of you to experience a cooling
shower/storm in the afternoons. PW values will be on the rise today
reaching near or above the 90th percentile (~1.88") by the
afternoon. The latest CAMs reflect some isolated WAA showers in the
morning, then some isolated to scattered convection developing along
the sea breeze in the afternoon. So, rain chances will generally be
highest near and south of I-10. Moisture continues to increase going
into Tuesday pairing with PVA from shortwaves sneaking underneath
the ridge and slightly warmer daytime temperatures. As a result,
expecting increased coverage of convection on Tuesday afternoon.
We`ll also need to monitor the progress of an approaching weak
boundary from the northeast as convection may develop along it as it
pushes towards the Piney Woods.

The ridge axis begins to slide out to the east on Wednesday as an
upper level low over the Baja Peninsula begins its trek eastward.
This decrease in subsidence paired with placement into southwesterly
flow aloft and PW values remaining elevated means that chances for
showers/storms will continue through the work week. Shower/storm
chances increase further towards the end of the work week and into
the weekend as the upper level low moves in closer. We did get to
enjoy a dry weekend this past weekend, but the tradeoff is yet
another rainy weekend with rain chances peaking in the afternoon
hours. The good news about the increasing rain chances is that this
leads to decreasing temperatures. We`ll look to trade out the early
week high temperatures in the low 90s for high temperatures in the
upper 80s by the end of the work week.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 545 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Southerly winds become light and variable this evening as lower
cloud decks around 1000-2500ft develop over SE Texas. These decks
may fill in, bringing periods of MVFR conditions overnight into
Monday morning. Some patchy of fog could develop, though less
likely due to cloud cover. May see some instances of lower FLs to
IFR, though largely MVFR conditions will dominate. CIGs & any fog
should clear up Monday morning with VFR conditions prevailing
throughout the daytime. Some isolated showers could develop in the
afternoon, mainly south of I-10 along the sea breeze. Still,
showers & storm chances remain too low, not enough confidence to
include with the current TAF cycle.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Light onshore flow and low seas will prevail through late Tuesday.
By Wednesday morning, winds will transition to northeasterly to
easterly as a weak boundary approaches the waters. Winds transition
back to east-southeasterly to southeasterly by Wednesday night with
wind speeds occasionally strengthening near the caution flag
threshold going into the weekend. The occasionally stronger onshore
flow will lead to gradually building seas towards the end of the
work week. Another consequence of the occasionally stronger onshore
flow is an increased risk of rip currents beginning around midweek.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible daily
beginning on Monday, but expect these chances to increase towards
the end of the work week.

Batiste

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Today, June 1st, marks the beginning of the 2026 Atlantic
Hurricane Season. The season runs through November 30th. If you
haven`t already, use this as a reminder to review your
action/evacuation plans (or develop one), assemble your disaster
supply kits, review your insurance policies, and know where to go
to for trusted/reliable information throughout the season. The
time to prepare is NOW. Please don`t wait for a storm to be named
before you start developing a plan or assembling supplies. Early
action CAN save lives and property. Even though the season is
forecast to have below normal activity, remember that it only
takes ONE storm to make it an active season. 1983 featured only
four storms for the entire season, but one of those was Hurricane
Alicia.

Check out our Hurricane Guide for the 2026 season on our website
(www.weather.gov/houston) underneath the "News Headlines" at the top
of the page...the guide is available in both English and Spanish.
Both guides can also be downloaded in PDF format for offline use.
Let`s stay vigilant, let`s stay safe, let`s stay prepared.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  92  75  92  74 /  10  10  20  30
Houston (IAH)  92  77  92  76 /  20  10  30  30
Galveston (GLS)  87  81  87  80 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion