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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

850
FXUS64 KHGX 031007
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
507 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Couldn`t rule out patchy dense fog this morning.

- Hot summer weather through the forecast period.

- Isolated afternoon shower/storm possible first half of week.
  Somewhat better chance of an afternoon shower/storm later in the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1116 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

A mid/upper ridge over SW CONUS is amplifying northeastward, with
its axis extending into the northern U.S. plains and central
Canada. A deep-layer trough remains in place over E CONUS, with
very dry mid/upper air pushing southward between the trough and
the ridge. Even at the surface, very low dew points have pushed
into our region in the wake of relatively weak sfc cold front. The
front has stalled near the coast, becoming increasingly diffused.
We`ll likely continue the dry LL regime on Monday, featuring
low/mid 60s dew points north of I-10 and 70s dew points near the
coast. However,the sea breeze boundary is expected to push further
inland Monday afternoon, bringing higher dew points farther
inland later in the day. Couldn`t rule out an isolated afternoon
shower or storm along the sea breeze boundary. We`ve actually
dialed back on the hot temperatures a tad, making me glad we
didn`t totally buy into those 102-104 degree temperatures the NBM
was suggesting a few days ago. But we are still calling for
temperatures near 100 degrees inland, and low 90s at the coast. If
the sea breeze is delayed, then we can get a little hotter.

The mid/upper flow pattern is expected to become less amplified as
the week progresses. The E CONUS trough should erode north, while
the ridge to our west expands, increasing mid/upper pressure
heights over Texas. Global ensemble mean 500 MB heights shows
values increasing from roughly ~588dam to ~594dam between now and
week`s end. One`s initial reaction to this trend would be the
expectation of building heat. But as the E CONUS troughing fades
away, our LL pattern will become more influenced by high pressure
to the east, establishing deep onshore flow. This will have a
tendency to increase the chance of late morning and afternoon
cumulus, and could potentially increase the risk of a few
isolated afternoon showers/storms. Therefore, afternoon high
temperatures are actually forecast to decrease somewhat later this
week (still quite hot in the mid 90s). However, persistent
onshore flow will likely increase dew points as well. So expect an
increasingly humid environment as the week progresses. Global
ensembles keep PWAT anomalies below average, thus the PoPs
remaining low all week.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 507 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Light and variable winds will persist through most of the morning
before becoming southerly to southeasterly in the afternoon hours.
Terminals closer to the coast will start out with light south-
southwesterly winds before transitioning to southeasterly winds
around 10 kt this afternoon. Cannot rule out intermittent periods
of patchy fog over the next few hours this morning in LBX/SGR.
Isolated SH/TS possible this afternoon around the Houston metro
terminals between 20Z-01Z, but the potential is too low to include
it in any of the TAFs. Brief periods of patchy fog will be
possible again early Tuesday morning.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1116 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Light to moderate winds and low seas are expected through the
forecast period. Winds on Monday are expected to be west to
southwest, before becoming more southerly as we approach mid week.
By the end of the week, winds are expected to become more
southeasterly. Isolated shower or storm possible along the sea
breeze boundary during the first half of the week. Somewhat better
chance of a shower/storm in the afternoon for the bays, and in the
morning hours in the Gulf later in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 100  75  98  76 /  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH) 100  79  99  79 /  20   0  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  91  83  91  83 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion