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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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153
FXUS64 KHGX 111815
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
115 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop
  this afternoon. Some storms will be capable of becoming strong
  to severe through early this evening. Damaging winds, hail,
  localized heavy rain and an isolated tornado or two are the main
  hazards.

-  Hazardous marine and beach conditions will persist today
   through Thursday with strong winds and seas. There is also a
   high risk of rip currents along all Gulf-facing beaches through
   this evening.

- A gradual warming trend is expected Friday into the weekend,
  followed by another cool-down after the arrival of a strong cold
  front early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 112 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026


Radar has blossomed and will continue to do so ahead of a pre-
frontal boundary that is extending across Southeast Texas early this
afternoon. The environment remains conducive to strong to severe
thunderstorms along and ahead of this boundary. A strong deformation
zone with robust frontogenesis has provided the region with ample
lift. Strong 0-6 km shear (50-60 kts), and moderate instability are
sufficient to support some stronger updrafts capable of producing
wind gusts from 45 to 60 mph. Given 0-1 km shear of around 20
knots and 0-2 km VGA between 0.27-0.35; an isolated tornado or two
cannot be ruled out. The risk of severe weather increases as the
storm moves east-northeast into the Lower MS Valley later this
afternoon and evening. A Tornado Watch is in effect for most of
Southeast Texas through 6 PM this evening. Localized heavy
rainfall is also expected along and ahead of this boundary with
rainfall rates of 1 to 2 in/hr. Highest storm totals expected
north of I-10 through sunset. Rain/storms will gradually taper off
from west to east this evening.

The main cold front will be reaching the region around sunset,
bringing strong northwest winds in its wake. Breezy to windy
conditions are expected tonight with gusts between 15 to 25 mph at
times. Strongest gusts are expected over the bays and coastal waters
where gusts from 30 to 40 knots are expected.

Drier and cooler conditions will filter in behind the front, leading
to a pleasant Thursday. Highs will generally range in the 60s under
mostly sunny skies. Winds should weaken through the day, as pressure
gradient slackens.

A warm up will return Friday into the weekend with highs gradually
warming into the mid to upper 80s by Sunday. The good news (if you
enjoy Spring-like conditions) is that cooler and breezy weather
returns early next week as another strong cold front moves through
the region.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

A line of showers and storms currently moving slowly eastward
across the area this afternoon will gradually push past the taf
sites over the next few hours. Another round of more scattered to
isolated showers and storms is expected later this
afternoon/evening ahead of the approaching cold front, most likely
in the 22z-03z time frame. Conditions should improve to VFR
thereafter, with very gusty southerly winds becoming very gusty NW
to N winds in the wake of the front this evening. Skies should
clear out for tomorrow while winds stay gusty and gradually become
NNE to NE.

WFO TAE

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 112 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and
move across the Bays and Gulf waters through early this evening.
This is in response to a cold front that will be entering the
coastal waters early this evening. The main concern will be strong
winds and building seas in the wake of the front. North to northwest
winds around 20 to 30 knots with gusts 35 knots and seas from 5 to
10 ft are expected late this evening into Thursday afternoon. Gale
conditions are expected through the overnight, with gusts up to 40
knots through early Thursday morning. Gale Warnings and Small Craft
Advisories are in effect. Strong onshore winds will also lead to low
water levels across the bays during low tide times on Thursday.
Latest PTESS suggest water levels as low as 0.5 - 1.0 below MLLW;
therefore a Low Water Advisory will be possible in future updates. A
gradual improve in winds and seas conditions is expected by early
Thursday evening with onshore winds quickly resuming through the
night.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  82  44  66  41 /  90  20   0   0
Houston (IAH)  81  49  67  46 /  90  30   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  76  54  66  57 /  70  20   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM CDT
     Thursday for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT
     Thursday for GMZ350-355-370-375.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ350-
     355-370-375.

     Gale Warning from 1 AM to 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ350-355-370-
     375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...WFO TAE
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion