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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

252
FXUS64 KHGX 300452
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1152 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances return today and Saturday as moisture levels
  increase and a few upper level disturbances pass through.

- The next chances for rain/storm will arrive early next week
  along and ahead of a cold front.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A parade of mid-level shortwave/vort maxima embedded in the
southwesterly flow aloft will continue to move north-northeast
across central TX tonight. While some drier air persists at the
700:850 hPa layer, a few light/spotty showers will be possible over
the Brazos Valley and southwestern counties. PW values will be on
the increase from southwest to northeast today and Saturday, with
values peaking in the 1.6 to 2.0 inch range. Increasing moisture,
combined with passing mid-level shortwaves will keep rain chances in
the forecast. The best chances remain for areas west of I-45 and
south of I-10, mainly in the afternoon due to the combination of
peak daytime heating.

Showers and a few thunderstorms will increase in coverage late
tonight into Saturday as the enhanced area of increased moisture and
vort maxes move overhead and to our northeast. This scattered to
widespread activity should gradually diminish by early evening,
so the evening trick-or-treating forecast looks rain-free for most
areas. A weak mid to upper lvl ridge builds Sunday into Monday,
resulting in only slight rain chances and warmer conditions with
highs in the mid to upper 80s.

A deepening upper trough will move over the western CONUS over the
weekend, moving eastward across the Plains on Monday. While the
evolution of this system still differs run to run, guidance shows
better agreement on the timing of the associated surface cold front.
As of the latest analysis, the FROPA is progged to move through on
Tuesday, reaching the coastal waters Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Given the high uncertainty in the evolution and phasing of this
trough, confidence in specific details regarding any
thunderstorm/severe weather potential remains low. Will continue to
monitor over the weekend as more hi-res guidance arrives and clearer
details emerge with the forecast. Behind the FROPA, drier and
slightly cooler conditions will filter in with near-normal
temperatures for this time of year.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Winds have reduced to LGT and VRB as the overnight progresses and
VFR conditions prevail. Winds increase by mid morning between 5-
10kts out of the ESE. Isolated to scattered showers are possible
through the day with the best chances for areas mainly S of I-10 and
west of I-45. A few thunderstorms will be possible but confidence is
low to mention it in TAFs. Outside of any temporary MVFR conditions
from showers/storms, VFR conditions will prevail through the period.
Timing and coverage continue to remain uncertain and will be
monitored.

CMW

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Light to occasionally moderate easterly to southeasterly flow and
seas in the 2 to 4 ft range will continue across the Upper TX
coast today and Saturday. A few passing disturbances will result
in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend, with the best chances late tonight into Saturday. Winds
will become more southeasterly early next week, before the arrival
of the next cold front sometime in the Tuesday to Wednesday time
frame. Will continue to monitor conditions next week as elevated
winds and building seas will be possible ahead of and along the
FROPA. Caution flags or Small Craft Advisories may be needed.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  63  78  63  81 /  20  40  40  40
Houston (IAH)  65  80  67  82 /  10  30  30  50
Galveston (GLS)  71  77  70  79 /  10  40  40  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...CMW
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion