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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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276
FXUS64 KHGX 052340
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
540 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm weather will continue into Saturday.

- Increased shower & thunderstorm chances this weekend as a front
  stalls in the area.

- Sea fog will remain an intermittent issue near the southern Galveston
  Bay area and adjacent Gulf waters for the next several days.

- Another round of storm chances late Tue-Wed next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1208 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Wx remains about status quo into Friday night: warm, muggy,
somewhat breezy, and a non-zero chance of an isolated shra/tstm
or two. Heading into Saturday, the northern portion of the mid-
upper trof over the Rockies will lift northeastward and the
southern portion of the trof will cutoff and sink to the southwest
and toward the Baja region.

Albeit some model differences persist in terms of specific
timing, the associated surface front should sag southward into
parts of our area Saturday morning. PW`s pooling in the 1.5-1.7"
range in advance, frontal convergence, 30kt LLJ/inflow feeding
feeding in perpendicular to the front, and some embedded mid level
impulses riding parallel to the front should all allow for some
shra/tstm activity to develop.

Given the evolving upper pattern, the front should eventually lose
its southward push and stall/meander across portions of the region
into Sunday night.  With similar type set-ups aloft as described
above, continued rain chances are probable. Though the rain is
much welcomed, with time we`ll need to keep an eye on the jet
structure late Sat and Sat night as some deterministic guidance
suggests an increasing diffluent flow aloft - which if materializes
would favor some regenerative/training cells and the potential
localized heavier totals. All that said, we are getting into the
time of year where mesoscale processes can take over and cause
some forecast deviations (ie rain cooled air pushes the boundary &
focusing mechanism closer to the coast/offshore).

The stalled front should lift back north on Monday allowing for
gradually lowering rain chances. The Baja trof kicks back out and
tracks across Texas Tuesday and Wednesday and should bring back
some higher chances of shra/tstms to the area. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 540 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Largely a persistence forecast tonight without much change in the
broader environment. Fog is already back at Galveston riding in on
the breezy south winds, though it has not reached GLS
specifically quite yet. For now, holding IFR CIGs/VSBY at HOU/SGR,
bringing IAH right to the edge with min CIGs at 010. Have also
introduced PROB30s tomorrow afternoon for some iso/sct afternoon
-SHRA. The better potential for rain still lies beyond the end of
the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1208 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

A long fetch of southeast winds will remain stretched from our coast
waters well out into the Gulf through the weekend. Expect some
slowly building seas. Sea fog will remain an intermittent issue at
times, primarily in the Gulf waters off of Galveston, and maybe
extreme southerly parts of Galveston Bay in the nighttime and early
morning hours. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase
Saturday night and Sunday with a stalled frontal boundary inland.
This front should lift back northward on Monday. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  68  86  69  83 /  10  30  50  80
Houston (IAH)  70  84  71  84 /  10  30  30  70
Galveston (GLS)  68  75  68  76 /  10  30  20  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for GMZ335-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion