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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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354
FXUS64 KHGX 062326
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
526 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increased shower & thunderstorm chances Saturday and Saturday
  night...gradually tapering down on Sunday.

- Sea fog will remain an intermittent issue near the southern
  Galveston Bay area and adjacent Gulf waters for the next several
  days.

- Another round of storms possible Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Continued warm and muggy conditions overnight with lows struggling
to fall below 70F. Shower/thunderstorm chances increase as we
progress thru the day Saturday and Saturday night as a front
and associated precip sag into the region. Guidance is generally
pointing toward a linear line of storms moving into northern parts
of the region during the afternoon and continuing toward the coast
in the evening/overnight hours. There is a slight chance (level 2
out of 5) that some of the storm segments could become strong to
severe...with winds and hail the primary threats. Overall, most
areas should see 0.5-1.5" rainfall totals, though we will need to
watch the potential for *localized* higher swaths (of say 2-4")
should a favored jet couplet materialize aloft as a few deterministic
models suggest. In that instance, we`d look for potential
regenerating/training cells in the Saturday evening/night time
period.

This front should theoretically stall inland as the synoptic
pattern loses support for a southward "push" with time. However,
run-to-run model trends have generally been southward and currently
depicts stalling between I-10 and the coast. Throw in the mesoscale
and rain cooled air upstream, I wouldn`t be totally surprised if
it gets a bit further south.

On Sunday, rain chances and intensity should gradually wane thru
the morning. I lowered POPs a bit and actually tinkered with going
even lower...esp in the afternoon. But let`s take a look at where
this boundary ends up first, since there will probably still be
some lingering moisture and upper impulses to deal with.

The next mid-upper trof kicks out of Baja Monday and tracks across
Texas Tuesday afternoon (west) thru Wed night (east). This system
should provide our next shot of tstms late Tues night and Wednesday.
Drier, breezier, and more seasonable wx will fill in behind this
system. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 526 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Broadly speaking, tonight/tomorrow looks very similar to last
night and today, with south winds hanging on through the night
rather than calming, and CIGs down to IFR/low MVFR. Specific
timing of the degradation will be tricky as always, and may need
amendments to keep on track through the night. Keep sea fog impact
mainly limited to GLS, with some modest imposition on LBX as well.
Then gradual improvement through the morning, with most managing
to return to low VFR for the afternoon albeit with a smattering of
showers and perhaps even an isolated -TSRA. Starting out with
PROB30 -SHRA mentions for now.

At the very end of the forecast, continue to haggle with specifics
on line of storms moving into the area. These sketched out hours
are largely for planning purposes, and will need to continue to be
refined in future cycles.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 100 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

General: A long fetch of 10-20kt southeast winds will remain
stretched from our coastal waters well out into the Gulf through
the weekend along with 3 to 5 foot seas.

Sea fog: fog will remain an intermittent issue at times, primarily
in the Gulf waters off of Galveston, and maybe extreme southerly
parts of Galveston Bay in the nighttime and early morning hours.
Confidence in the specifics is low and visibilites will likely
fluctuate with slightly stronger llvl winds tonight, and some
rainfall Saturday night. That said, suspect we`ll continue with
hit/miss fog issues until the next front fully clears things out
Wed.

Precip: shower and thunderstorm chances increase Saturday night
into Sunday morning along a front that will be approaching the
coast. Cannot rule out some localized gusts >30kt in some of the
stronger cells (Saturday night). The front is expected to stall
just inland, but storm outflows may give it a nudge into the bays
and/or nearshore Gulf. Precip coverage/intensity should wane
Sunday and the front should lift back northward on Monday. We`ll
be keeping an eye out for our next weather system Tuesday night-
Wednesday.

Spring Break begins for much of the area this weekend. Just a
gentle reminder that there are almost always rip currents at the
beach. Swim near a lifeguard and away from rocks, jetties, and
piers where rip currents are typically strongest. Also avoid
swimming on the easter/western tips of Galveston Island.  47

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 100 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Rivers are currently in good shape, and should mostly stay that
way. But we`ll keep an eye on things with the incoming wx. We
could see a few instances of rises to action to minor flood stage
near, or upstream, of where any heavier rainfall occurs in a short
time period. The latest river ensemble guidance suggests the
Trinity River basin might be the place to monitor.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  71  84  58  71 /  40  90  80  40
Houston (IAH)  73  85  68  76 /  20  80  90  60
Galveston (GLS)  70  76  67  73 /  10  60  80  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion