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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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407
FXUS64 KHGX 162323
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
523 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning in effect for areas west of I-45 on Saturday.

- Negative tide levels are are expected through at least the
  weekend, being reinforced after Tonight`s cold front.

- Very remote chance of some brief sleet and/or flurries on
  Saturday night. This will be followed later in the night by a
  light freeze from the northern and west fringes of the Houston
  metro northward.

- Our next good chance for rainfall will come towards the middle
  of next week from a coastal trough and shortwave moving through
  the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Another mid/upper level trough digging through the North-Central
Plains/Mississippi River Valley is in the process of sending another
cold front our way. This front will enter the Brazos Valley soon
this afternoon then push off the coast in the evening. PWs will
still be low, forecasted to be under 1.0" inland, though near the
coast and over the Gulf waters, PWs do climb up just slightly above
1.0 inch. CAMs are now showing a thin, broken line of light showers
along the front this evening as it moves over the coastal counties
with coverage increasing as it moves off the coast. Due to the
FROPA, highs should top out in the mid 60s/mid 70s. Breezy and
cooler conditions fill in overnight with lows for Saturday morning
ranging from the mid 30s/40s to possibly lower 50s at the coast.

Saturday will feature multiple notable weather phenomena to keep
track off. For most people, the day will start off feeling like a
typical, post-frontal day as high pressure fills in across the
Plains. Highs are still anticipated to reach the 50s/lower 60s with
dry and gusty conditions during the afternoon. However, relative
humidity is forecasted to drop to 15-30 percent. Winds are also
expected to remain fairly elevated during the daytime, ranging from
10-15mph with gusts up to 25mph inland (20mph gusting 30mph along
the coast). Fuels are also fairly dry, below the 25th percentile in
many spots for both the 10hr and 100hr fuels, generally in the
western side of our CWA. With the driest conditions and strongest
winds & gusts anticipated in this area, expect elevated to critical
fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon. A Red Flag warning will
be in effect on Saturday. Caution should be exercised when working
with open flames or operating equipment that can cause sparks,
especially in drier locations. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

Heading into Saturday evening, CAMS show much drier conditions
compared to global models with only sparse rain chances off the coast
during the night. NBM, HREF and REFS all show zero or nearly zero
probabilities for freezing precipitation over SE Texas during the
night. Still, there will be robust upper level forcing in place from
the passing elongated trough, coinciding with lower level
frontogenesis being depicted in higher resolution models. The
atmosphere during the evening of Saturday is still characterized by
largely dry conditions, both in the DGZ and below it. Still, wet
bulb traces fall below the freezing mark, so if we do manage to
squeeze out any precipitation from lingering moisture, it may be
able to cool the air below it and possibly produce a brief period of
sleet/flurries. Even if we manage to get some sleet/flurries, it
shouldn`t accumulate and thus it is unlikely that we`ll see any
major impacts from this. If anything, the cold weather should be a
bigger concern for the overnight period into Sunday. Lows are
currently forecasted in the 20s/30s for Sunday morning with lower
40s along the coast. Wind speeds are mostly light, though some
slightly stronger winds closer to the coast should make the wind
chill feel below freezing in many spots.

Sunday will see surface high pressure pass over the area and move
off to the east, allowing onshore flow to return that evening. This
will usher in WAA and bring gradually warming temperatures and
increasing moisture into next week. Highs for Sunday should reach
the 50s/lower 60s during the daytime. Overnight temperatures will be
slightly warmer, but still cool with lows for Monday morning
anticipated to bottom out in the 30s/upper 40s inland and lower 50s
right along the coast.

This brief warm-up will come to a quick end on Monday as another
upper level trough is expected to send yet another cold front into
SE Texas. Current timing has it reaching SE Texas Monday
afternoon/evening, stalling out somewhere over coast/Gulf waters
early on Tuesday. Onshore flow is reestablished as a coastal trough-
feature develops over the Gulf Tuesday night. PWs quickly rise to
0.1-1.8" on Wednesday as shortwave trough fills in from the west.
This will produce showers and thunderstorms across the area
throughout Wednesday with another cold front pushing in behind the
trough on Thursday.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 514 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

A cold front will continue pushing through the region. Winds ahead
of the front are from the SW, averaging 8-13 knots. Behind the
front, winds should increase from the north, likely sustained
closer to 15 knots with gusts over 25 knots possible. There may be
a time late tonight into early tomorrow morning (~0900 to 1400
UTC) that winds decrease somewhat, before increasing again. We
cannot rule out a few showers as the front moves through this
evening, with the best chance of rain occurring near the coast.
Speaking of the coast, winds tonight into tomorrow could gust over
30 knots at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1235 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Low Water Advisory remains in effect for both bays through the end
of the week. While waters levels may improve to some degree at high
tide, negative tides to -1.0 ft (MLLW) or lower will be possible at
low tide each day, especially Saturday morning behind the next cold
front. This cold front should push through the bays and off the
coast around 8-10pm tonight. Northerly winds of 20-30 knots with
gusts of 30-35 knots will develop behind the front, prompting Small
Craft Advisories all through Saturday into early Sunday morning.
There is a chance of some light precipitation off the coast on
Saturday. Onshore winds return Sunday night. Next cold front will
stall out around the coast early on Tuesday.

03

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1243 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

With the passage of recent dry cold fronts, fire weather
conditions have been mitigated by fuel moisture near or above
average levels, counteracting the dry and breezy post-frontal
conditions. However, with each dry front, fuels grow drier from
the lack of rainfall and return of meaningful, sustained humidity.

More serious fire weather conditions may emerge after Friday`s
cold front, as relative humidity below 30 percent, and even below
20 percent in the driest spots will coincide with gusty
north/northeast winds on Saturday afternoon. In addition, Texas
A&M fuel moisture data indicates a drier fuelscape, driven by what
appears to be 100 hour fuel moistures reaching an inflection point
of dryness after several days without rain. Taken together,
elevated fire weather conditions for much of the area are very
likely, with the potential for near-critical to critical
conditions. The best potential for critical fire weather
conditions look to be in the Matagorda Bay area northward, where
the driest, windiest conditions are expected, along with fuel beds
that tend to be fine, grassy fuels and more responsive to drops in
relative humidity. A major mitigating factor in this situation is
that the post-frontal airmass is also colder, with Saturday highs
in the area only reaching into the lower to middle 50s.

Beyond Saturday, we`ll need to continue to monitor conditions into
early next week, as moisture return will again be weak, keeping
conditions dry through another front passing through Monday.
Moderation will come towards the middle of the week, with the
return of more humid air and meaningful rain chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  38  55  28  60 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  45  56  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  51  58  43  57 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CST Saturday for TXZ176-
     195>198-210>212-226-227-235>237-335>337-436-437.

GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 7 AM CST Sunday
     for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion