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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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184
FXUS64 KHGX 071720
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1220 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and pleasant weather for today and tonight.

- Expect increasingly warm and humid conditions as the week
  progresses.

- Chance of showers and thunderstorms increases, with the
  potential for locally heavy rainfall Friday into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Dry conditions will prevail for the rest of today with sunny to
partly cloudy skies and highs in the mid to upper 70s. Winds this
afternoon will be easterly, gradually veering southeast late this
evening. For tonight, expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with
lows in the lower 50s over the Piney Woods region, the mid 50s to
lower 60s over the rest of the inland portions, and the mid to
upper 60s along the coast. A weak upper level trough and a few
vort maxes are to pass through TX overnight into early Wednesday
morning and could lead to some very light quick passing showers,
although chances are rather low.

With the return of southeasterly winds, we will have an increase
in low level moisture during the second part of the week. Most of
this moisture will be over the Gulf waters and coastal locations
on Wednesday, and this is the area with the best chance for rain
that afternoon. Chances are on the lower side, around 15-20%,
given that the axis of the upper level trough will be over LA by
the afternoon. Otherwise, expect sunny to partly cloudy skies and
highs rising into the upper 80s for much of Southeast TX.

Conditions will get a little more stormier on Thursday as
moisture levels continue to rise and a weak coastal trough
develops over the TX coast. The day will start with isolated to
scattered showers moving in from the Gulf Thursday morning. As
diurnal heating kicks up and instability increases, showers and
thunderstorms should develop further inland. The higher PoPs are
expected to occur over areas near and south of I-10. Rain chances
could continue during the Thursday night to early Friday morning
period.

A further rise in shower and thunderstorm activity can be
expected during the day on Friday as a weak mid-upper level trough
moves across TX. There will be plenty of moisture to work with
that day, with PWs ranging between 1.4 to 1.7 inches. The current
forecast carries scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
for areas near and south of I-10 and isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms for areas north of I-10 Friday morning. During
the afternoon, most locations could have scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms (lowest over the Piney Woods area).
Given the amount of moisture that will be in place, moderate to
heavy rainfall will be possible at times. No significant flooding
is expected at this time, although ponding of water along
roadways and low lying areas can be expected in areas with heavy
rainfall. Skies will be cloudy for much of the day and the highs
will peak in the upper 70s for much of the region (could affect
our rain chances over some areas). Rain chances are expected to
decrease during the night hours, however, the coastal areas could
still have isolated showers pass through from time to time.

Rain chances continue on Saturday, but an upper level ridge is
expected to build and should limit shower development a bit. The
GFS does show a very weak embedded disturbance passing through
Southeast TX that afternoon, which could help suppress some of
the subsidence. At this time, expect isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms over areas south of I-10 Saturday
morning, followed by isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms mainly over areas along and west of I-45.

We will see rain chances in the forecast for Sunday and Monday.
Some of the shower and thunderstorm activity will be diurnally
induced, however, much of it will be from storms moving in from
northern and central TX. Thus, our higher rain chances should be
over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region for both Sunday and
Monday.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 551 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

VFR with just variable high cloudiness streaming overhead for the
next 30 hours.  47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Light to moderate southeast winds will continue through early
next week. Winds will be strongest during the early night to mid-
morning hours and Caution Flags may be required at times. Strong
rip currents are also possible along the Gulf facing beaches. Seas
will be 3 to 5 feet through Thursday, however, a swell driven by
stronger winds over the eastern and northern Gulf waters is
expected to move into our local area and increase seas to 4-7 feet
late Thursday into early next week. Seas could be slightly higher
over the offshore Gulf waters. Caution flags and/or Small Craft
Advisories may be needed. There is a daily chance for showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend, highest on Thursday night into
Friday. Elevated winds and seas may occur in and around strong
thunderstorms.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  75  54  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  77  58  81  64 /   0   0  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  73  68  76  70 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cotto
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion