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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

131
FXUS64 KHGX 020459
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1159 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot summer weather continues through the forecast period.

- We`ll need to monitor for potential isolated to scattered
  showers/storms near the coast and offshore in the Gulf today.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Aug  2026

Our long awaited "cold" front is pushing through Texas, bringing
much lower dew points / humidity in its wake. The front has been
somewhat lagging, with the leading edge just reaching the northern
fringe of our CWA as of the time of writing this AFD (~12AM CDT).
The increasingly diffused front is expected to stall near the coast
and could provide a focal region for convective development. Some of
the CAMs suggest isolated to scattered activity will develop near
the coast and offshore during the morning hours. So we`ll be keeping
a watchful eye on the radar just in case.

Dew points are forecast to drop well down into the 60s for most
areas north of I-10 this afternoon. We may even see 50s dew points
in the Brazos Valley. Meanwhile, coastal dew points are forecast to
remain in the mid/upper 70s. Quite soupy for our beach friends.
Inland afternoon temperatures are expected to be in the upper 90s,
with low 90s at the coast. But the highest heat indices may actually
occur at the coast (104-106) due to the higher humidity. With a
potential lingering frontal boundary in place, I guess we cannot
completely rule out an isolated shower or storm along the boundary
this afternoon.

The low-levels look to remain dry on Monday, with a similar dew
point regime as Sunday. Meanwhile, ridging aloft should strengthen,
warming the overall temperature profile. Therefore, temperatures in
many spots may be flirting with the 100 degree mark. Ridging aloft
should increase as the week progresses while deep LL onshore flow
becomes established thanks to the increasing influence of a sfc high
well to our east. This combo should keep conditions hot and
increasingly humid. Perhaps we can lower temps somewhat later in the
week due to the potential for some increased cumulus as well as
diurnally influenced isolated shower / thunderstorm activity. But we
see no real relief from the heat. Tis August in SE TX.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

A slowing moving "cold" front continues to push into SE TX this
evening and overnight. Any remaining showers ahead of the front
are expected to dissipate in the next couple of hours. In general,
winds veer from WSW to N as the front pushes through. A light and
VRB wind group is included at most TAF sites to account for the
wind shift associated with the front. At KGLS, elevated and gusty
winds continue through the evening and overnight. Across all
sites, a drier air mass arrives in wake of the front, making CIGs
and VIS a minimal concern. Looking ahead to tomorrow afternoon,
there is a low chance for pop-up showers and thunderstorms
primarily along the coast due to daytime heating and positioning
of the weak frontal boundary; however, confidence is low.

MLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Gusty southwest winds will gradually decrease overnight into
Sunday morning. A frontal boundary will approach from the north,
stalling and becoming increasingly diffused near the coast. The
front could help spark off a few showers and thunderstorms along
the coast and over the open Gulf. Best chance of a heavier thunderstorm
is offshore. Light west to southwest winds are expected Sunday
into Monday, followed by light to moderate south winds Tuesday and
Wednesday. Winds may become more southeasterly by the end of the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  98  74 100 /  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  78  99  77 101 /  10   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  81  93  82  94 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT Sunday for
     GMZ335-375.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...MLG
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion