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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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411
FXUS64 KHGX 231113
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
613 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms today with
  the best chances south of I-10.

- Hot but less humid are expected Thursday and Friday as backdoor
  frontal boundary moves through.

- Rain chances return early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

A strong mid to upper level ridge centered over Texas will continue
to dominate weather conditions over the next several days. While
subsidence aloft remains strong, daytime heating, seabreeze
interaction and an approaching front will result in isolated to
widely scattered showers and storms today. A few strong storms
capable of producing brief downpours cannot be ruled out. Hot
conditions will continue with highs in the mid to upper 90s.

We`re monitoring the aforementioned quasi-stationary front extending
just to our north. It will eventually become more backdoor and
finally push over the region late tonight into Thursday. This front
won`t bring a big change in temperatures, but at least it will gift
us with less humidity. Sfc dew points will gradually drop into the
60s and upper 50s on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will
generally remain in the low to mid 90s, but with less humidity.
Little to no rain is expected to close out the workweek as drier air
filters in behind the front.

The mid to upper level ridge flattens a bit and slightly shifts WSW
over the weekend and into the upcoming week. At the same time, a
trough over the Pacific Northwest will deepen and expand eastward
across the Western CONUS, bringing a few disturbances/vort maxes
across the southern Plains/Lower MS Valley Sunday and Monday. Rain
chances will depend on the final track/position of these impulses of
energy and the amount of moisture. Latest guidance shows PWATs into
the 1.7 to 1.9 inch range during this period, so isolated
showers/storms cannot be ruled out at least for our northern
counties. We`re keeping an eye on of the next trough and associated
surface front that could potentially bring changes in temperatures
and increased rain and storm chances by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Light winds this morning will strengthen and become east to
southeasterly in the afternoon. Isolated storms could develop at
times, mainly during the afternoon, though chances are still too
low to warrant inclusion with the current TAF cycle. Winds will
become light and variable tonight. Outside of brief patchy fog
during the early morning, VFR conditions should prevail throughout
the TAF period.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Light to moderate onshore winds (E to ESE) and seas around 1 to 3ft
will prevail today. Isolated showers/storms are possible overnight
into the morning hours over the Gulf waters, developing around the
bays in the afternoon. A dry frontal boundary will move over the
coastal waters tonight, bringing moderate easterly winds. Caution
Flags will be possible late tonight into Thursday. Light to
occasionally moderate winds resume on Friday and will persist into
the weekend with a daily risk of isolated showers and storms.
Increasing rain and storm chances are expected by the upcoming week.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  98  76  97  72 /  10  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  97  79  95  75 /  20  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  91  83  91  82 /  20  10  20   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...03
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion