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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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838
FXUS64 KHGX 111850
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
150 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely scattered streamer showers will persist through this
  afternoon.

- Better chance of showers and storms on Sunday. A few storms may
  produce damaging wind gusts, hail, and localized flooding. Best
  chance of heavy thunderstorms will be in the Piney Woods and
  portions of the Brazos Valley.

- Strong rip currents expected along Gulf-facing beaches through
  the weekend.

- Increasingly summer-like weather by the second half of next
  week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will persist today as a deep fetch
of moist onshore flow continues across SE Texas. Scattered
streamer showers have been occuring for areas along and west of
the Brazos River this morning, and will continue through this
afternoon with increasing coverage of isolated showers across the
area. Cannot out-rule an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon as
that daytime heating perks up.

While we will be experiencing a lull in the activity overnight,
our attention will be on a developing cluster of strong to
severe thunderstorms that will be moving through Central Texas.
There remains some uncertainty on how quickly this cluster of
storms will move eastwards across the state, with CAM guidance
having it enter the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods region as early as
9-10am Sunday morning or as late as Noon-2pm. The earlier solution
is dependent on the cluster of storms becoming cold pool dominate
and speeding up its forward motion. The majority of the HREF
suite of guidance leans more towards the later solution, but I do
not want to count out this earlier solution. We continue to
monitor for the potential of isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms reaching the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods region with
this cluster of storms. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms (level 1 of 5) for areas along and west of the
Brazos River and in the Piney Woods. WPC has a Slight Risk for
excessive rainfall (level 2 of 4) for the Brazos Valley and Piney
Woods region (and a Marginal Risk extending down to Lake
Livingston to southern Colorado County). Overall, the severe
weather threat tomorrow for our area is a very conditional:
another low CAPE, high shear event. Which translates to IF
thunderstorms hold themselves together long enough to reach our
area or develop in the afternoon, then they could become strong to
severe. The earlier solutions that have the cluster of storms
being mostly overtaken by the cold pool by the time it reaches SE
Texas will have very little chance of severe thunderstorms. The
slower solutions, which would bring the cluster of storms into the
Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region during the afternoon, would
have more daytime heating to work with to help produce an isolated
strong to severe thunderstorm. While all severe weather hazards
would be possible if severe storms develop, the main threat will
be strong wind gusts, hail, and locally heavy rainfall. Areas
within the Slight Risk of excessive rainfall may see up to 1-2"
of rain on Sunday with locally higher amounts of 3-4" possible.
Areas south of Conroe will likely see little to no rainfall on
Sunday. Another lull in the shower activity is expected Sunday
evening, but lingering boundaries and passing weak disturbances
aloft may lead to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
overnight Sunday night into Monday morning.

Persistent southwesterly flow aloft with weak embedded shortwaves
will lead to almost daily chances of showers and thunderstorms to
the northwest, mainly along the I-35 Corridor. The majority of the
region will stay too far SE from these embedded disturbances to
feel much of an affect, but the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods
region may get glanced by some passing thunderstorms midweek.
Otherwise, expect the potential for some isolated streamer showers
as moist onshore flow continues.

Cloud cover and rain chances will keep temperatures close to
seasonal today and Sunday with high temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. The
persistent onshore flow and increasing southwesterly flow aloft
will lead to a gradual increase in temperatures through the
remainder of the week. Highs will climb from the low to mid 80s on
Monday to mid to upper 80s by Thursday into the weekend (and I
wouldn`t be surprised to see some isolated 90 degree readings).
The moist airmass will also lead to heat indices rising into the
low 90s by Thursday.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Scattered SHRA is moving northward across the area, but has mainly
been impacting LBX/SGR so far. This activity will continue through
the afternoon. Farther north near CLL/UTS, some TSRA is possible
later this afternoon. All SHRA/TSRA will fade after 23-01z.
Otherwise VFR cigs are expected this afternoon. Overnight, MVFR
cigs are likely to return with some IFR possible, mainly for the
northern and western terminals. These will continue through the
end of the period. SHRA/TSRA will become possible again late in
the TAF period at CLL and possible at UTS/IAH after 18z Sunday. SE
winds around 10- 15 kt will continue with gusts of 20-25 kt at
times this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 123 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Moderate east to southeasterly winds (around 15kt with gusts to
around 20-23kt) will continue through Sunday night with seas
around 3-5ft. Thus, small craft should continue to exercise
caution through Sunday night. The onshore winds are expected to
lower somewhat by Monday with gusts to 20kt becoming less
frequent, but the onshore flow will persist all week. Seas will
remain around 3-5ft through the week, with isolated higher seas
possible in the offshore waters beyond 40nm.

The persistent onshore flow will lead to not only an increased
risk of strong rip currents, but also slightly elevated high
tides. Current P-ETSS has high tides around 2.5-3ft above MLLW
through the first half of next week. This is below our thresholds
where we may begin to see minor coastal flooding, but the elevated
tides and increased wave heights may lead to some wave run-up
along Gulf-facing beaches.

Isolated showers will be possible nightly through at least Monday,
but then move in-land through the morning hours.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  68  79  69  83 /  20  80  40  20
Houston (IAH)  70  81  71  84 /  20  60  20  20
Galveston (GLS)  72  77  72  78 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Sunday evening for
     GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Fowler

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion