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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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FXUS64 KHGX 231825
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
125 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gradual warming trend with temperatures reaching into the upper
  80s to lower 90s by this weekend.

- Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible over portions
  of the area Friday afternoon and evening.

- Above normal temperatures continue during the early to middle
  part of next week, with at least isolated showers and
  thunderstorms possible over portions of the region each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Warm and humid conditions persist this afternoon with partly to
mostly cloudy skies underneath weak ridging aloft. An isolated
shower or thunderstorm cannot be entirely ruled out this afternoon
into early this evening, but the overall lack of lift will support
keeping POPs below 10 percent. Overnight low temperatures are
forecast to range in the upper 60s to lower 70s for the most part
except in the mid 70s along the immediate coast.

The mid level flow pattern transitions more zonal on Friday. Weak
shortwave impulses embedded within the westerly flow aloft will
move across our forecast area Friday afternoon into early Friday
evening. Weak ascent associated with these disturbances along with
sufficient daytime heating and instability will aid in the
development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon/early evening hours. It appears the most
favorable location for scattered storm development will be over
portions of the Piney Woods where POPs up to around 30 percent
have been placed. We kept POPs more in the isolated coverage
(15-20 percent) range over most of the rest of the forecast area
Friday. Moderate afternoon/early evening instability along with
sufficient deep layer shear will support a few organized storms
Friday afternoon/evening. SPC has maintained a Marginal (Level 1
of 5) Risk of severe storms over much of the area Friday. The
primary concerns would be large hail and damaging wind gusts with
any isolated severe convection that develops. Another warm/humid
day can otherwise be expected with highs in the lower to mid 80s.
Storms generally look to diminish in coverage by mid to late
evening. Zonal flow aloft looks to continue over the region
through the weekend. Another weak shortwave impulse will translate
over the area Saturday afternoon and evening, which could aid in
the development of at least isolated showers/storms over the area,
though coverage currently looks to be 10 percent or less. Any
storm that does develop could become strong with hail/gusty winds
given available instability and 30-35 knots of deep layer shear.
Temperatures otherwise continue to increase this weekend, with
readings approaching the upper 80s to lower 90s over interior
areas and lower to mid 80s along the coast.

Above normal temperatures along with persistent southerly surface
flow and associated humid conditions look to continue through the
early to middle part of next week. At least isolated afternoon/
evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day given
moist W-SW flow aloft. Storm chances might become more favored
over northern portions of the region Tuesday into Wednesday as a
front potentially approaches the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 534 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Widespread MVFR ceilings early this morning with a few spots
intermittently dropping to IFR will give way to VFR ceilings later
this morning by 17Z. Southeasterly winds will be breezy with
sustained winds around 10-15 kt with gusts in the 20-25 kt range
through the afternoon. Isolated showers/storms will be possible
this afternoon, but mainly east of I-45. The probability of
convection is too low for mentions in any of the TAFs. Another
round of MVFR to IFR ceilings is expected to filter in from south
to north this evening and into Friday morning. Winds remain
elevated through the overnight hours, so fog potential will likely
be inhibited.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue through the
latter half of the week. A long fetch of these southeasterly
winds may bring increased seas at times. Above normal water
levels near 3.0 feet MLLW are still expected at each high tide
cycle through the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  70  86  70  89 /   0  20  20  10
Houston (IAH)  72  86  73  89 /   0  20  20  10
Galveston (GLS)  73  81  74  83 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lindsey
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Lindsey

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion