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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

690
FXUS64 KHGX 151127
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
627 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry weather conditions are expected through the
  weekend across southeast Texas with more locations with
  temperatures reaching the 90-degree mark.

- A wetter weather pattern returns by the middle of next week with
  some weekly rainfall totals at or over 1 inch becoming more
  likely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Dry and benign weather conditions are ongoing due to ridging aloft
and lighter winds as a result. In 24 hours this will change as the
ridge axis shifts further east and onshore southerly surface winds
return in earnest for a longer period of time (through most of
next week). Longwave troughing will also arrive over the weekend
to persist and eject across the Intermountain West, eventually
orienting southwesterly flow across Texas. Multiple rounds of
vorticity maxima embedded within this flow will serve as the
catalyst for multiple rounds of convection, beginning on Monday
and in earnest by next Tuesday. Long-range guidance currently
suggests a more diurnally-influenced, sub-severe convective cycle
with some lingering evening showers and thunderstorms. That said,
slightly above normal temperatures are expected until then (some
temperature maximums in the upper 80s/lower 90s) and near-normal
temperatures (temperature maximums in the upper 80s) as the wet
weather pattern returns by the middle of next week.

Cassel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Other than some low cigs in the Brazos Valley and a few areas of
low cig/vis elsewhere, we expect mostly VFR conditions today into
this evening. Winds will increase from the S to SE today, with
sustained winds expected to approach 15 knots with gusts over 20
knots. Cigs are expected to decrease overnight, with possible MVFR
across our northern zones after 06UTC.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

As large-scale surface ridging begins to persist and build
eastward over the next few days, a longer onshore fetch is also
developing for the Upper Texas coastline. Forecast certainty
continues to increase (up to 50-75% chance) for the threat of
impactful wave heights along the Bolivar Peninsula by Sunday, with
concurrent rip current threats being of concern well into the
beginning of next week. Lower end Small Craft Advisories are
becoming more likely as a result into early next week as onshore
winds gain speed to moderate levels, building 4-6 ft. seas.

Cassel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  90  71  89  75 /   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)  91  74  89  76 /   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  84  77  85  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cassel
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Cassel

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion