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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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959
FXUS64 KHGX 230503
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1203 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory remains in effect. Hot conditions will persist
  through at least mid-week.

- Cannot rule out a rouge shower or thunderstorm at times into
  midweek, but chances will be quite low.

- Temperatures VERY slightly ease late in the week along with the
  potential for some isolated rain chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

The oppressive heat wave continues across the region as strong mid to
upper level ridge over the Southern Rockies/West Texas stays in
place through at least Wednesday. Subsidence aloft, along with warm
and humid south to southwest surface winds will keep conditions hot
and sticky. Forecast models remain consistent in placing 850 mb
temperatures in the 22-26 degC range today through midweek, which
translates to surface highs reaching the upper 90s to lo 100s.
Expect highs mostly in the triple digits inland and in the mid 90s
along the coast through Wednesday/Thursday. A Heat Advisory remains
in effect today and is now in effect through Monday evening. Given
the persistent warmth and humidity, the Advisory will likely need to
be extended through at least Wednesday.

In terms of PoPs, the overall trend remains predominantly dry due to
strong subsidence remaining in place. However, don`t be entirely
surprised if isolated showers or storms manage to develop during the
afternoon hours as weak, subtle shortwaves ride along the
southeastern fringe of the ridge. If any rain/storms do develop,
they should dissipate around or shortly after sunset with the loss
of daytime heating.

For those looking for relief from the heat, options remain limited.
:(  BUT temperatures should drop by a few degrees toward the end of
the week. As the ridge aloft gradually shifts westward Thursday into
the upcoming weekend, highs will ease slightly into the mid to
upper 90s. Additionally, slightly weaker heights and an
approaching backdoor front will bring at least a slight rain/storm
chances late in the week.

JM


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

VFR conditions prevail, across all TAF sites, with light and
variable winds. Winds settle in the WSW tomorrow morning, then
increase to about 7-10 kts and swing to the SSE by tomorrow
afternoon. This evening, winds decrease and once again turn back
to the WSW. Another round of intermittent MVFR/IFR CIGS are
possible tonight, though are expected to be "FEW" and "SCT" in
nature. MVFR VIS is possible, especially at KLBX where cooling
overnight temps, increased moisture from onshore flow, and nearly
calm winds are expected from about 10Z to 14Z. Tomorrow afternoon
and evening, there is a low chance for some stray
showers/thunderstorms, though confidence in location is too low to
include in the TAFs.

MLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Surface high pressure centered over the western Gulf will continue
to result in light to moderate south to southwest winds and seas
around 1 to 3 ft. Expect winds shifting to the southwest and west
late at night and in the mornings, transitioning generally to the
south in the afternoon and evening with the seabreeze.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  79 104  78 103 /  10  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  81 103  80 102 /   0  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  83  92  83  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...MLG
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion