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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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580
FXUS64 KHGX 120534
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1234 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon
  for Wednesday and Thursday.

- There is the potential for slightly higher chances of rain on
  Friday, but mid-upper level ridge may suppress shower
  development.

- Seasonably hot weather continues through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

The local PWs are expected to be lower on Wednesday and continue
to decrease on Thursday, while a mid-upper level ridge meanders
over the N and NE Gulf waters. This will help limit shower
development across Southeast Texas, especially on Thursday when
PWs are expected to lower to 1.2-1.5 inches. Even with the
influence of the ridge and the lower PWs, a generous 15-20% PoPs
was added for Wednesday, given that the models have been
underestimating the previous days shower and thunderstorm activity
near and along the seabreeze boundary. I do expect chances to be
much lower on Thursday, but added a 10-15% chance as a precaution.

On Friday, a healthy surge of moisture is expected to move in from
the western Gulf waters, rising PWs to 1.7-2.1 inches. Even
though the ridge continues to our east, there could be sufficient
lift and instability near and along the seabreeze boundary for a
few showers and storms to develop. If storms become strong enough,
we might see some of them produce brief heavy rainfall. The
chances of rain decrease during the upcoming weekend as drier air
moves in again.

With respect to temperatures...well, it`s summer and looking into
the climate data, we should remain close or slightly above average
for this time of the year (roughly 1-4 deg higher than normal).
Expect highs in the mid to upper 90s inland and the upper 80s to
lower 90s along the coast for the rest of the week. Heat indices
will range between 105-108 degrees, with isolated spots possibly
reaching 108-110 degrees. Afternoon winds will be higher in the
afternoons, which may help somewhat. However, dont underestimate
the effects of heat stress, especially if you plan to work or play
for several hours outdoors. The nights will remain warm with lows
in the mid to upper 70s inland and the lower 80s along the coast.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Lingering isolated shra/tsra will quickly dissipate this evening
as we lose daytime heating. Winds overnight become light, with
some MVFR cigs developing in our northern zones by early morning.
Southerly winds are expected to be gustier on Thursday, possibly
gusting over 20 knots.  Winds may become more southeasterly in
by late Thursday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Light to occasionally moderate south to southeast winds are
expected for the next several days. Seas will rise 3 to 5 feet
on Thursday and lower back to 2 to 3 feet by late Friday. Caution
flags may be needed from Wednesday night to Thursday night, mainly
for moderate winds. Low chances of rain expected over the waters
through Thursday. There is the potential for slightly higher
chances of rain on Friday, but a broad mid to upper level ridge to
our east could limit the development of showers. Drier conditions
expected during the upcoming weekend.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  99  76  99 /   0   0   0  20
Houston (IAH)  78  96  79  97 /   0  20   0  20
Galveston (GLS)  83  91  84  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cotto
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion