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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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806
FXUS64 KHGX 301157
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
657 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected today, especially
  in our northern zones. Isolated more intense cells will be capable
  of producing hail, gusty winds, and brief heavy downpours.

- Strong late season cold front, and associated rain/storms, will
  push through the area Friday and Friday night followed by much
  cooler and breezy conditions in its wake.

- Strong winds (possible gales) and 6-12ft seas are expected in
  the coastal waters Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Thursday`s set up is quite similar to Wednesday. We will have a
frontal boundary draped across the CWA. The exact position of this
boundary is somewhat uncertain, but it`s expected to be in the
vicinity of the I-10 corridor. This could provide a focal for at
least some shower/thunderstorm development on Thursday. But if
Thursday is anything like Wednesday, then the best lift for deep
convection will be associated with the vort maxes embedded in the
flow aloft, which will more likely favor convection in our
northern counties. PoPs north of the Houston Metro area are
generally 50-60%, I-10 corridor roughly around 30-40%, and coastal
areas 20-30%. With deep convection favored north of the front,
the primary concern will be hail, lightning, and localized
flooding.

By Thursday night into Friday, a mid/upper low in SW CONUS will
eject eastward, amplifying the subtropical jet over our region.
The flow aloft will be increasingly diffluent, favoring large
scale lift. Meanwhile at the surface, the frontal boundary will
sag southward as a moderately strong sfc high pushes southward in
its wake. Winds behind the front will increase from the north,
bringing a strengthening CAA regime to the region. Overrunning in
the mid and upper levels will likely result in widespread showers
and a few embedded thunderstorms north of the front. Periods of
moderate to heavy rain are likely. Bulk shear will favor some
deep convection. Therefore, we cannot rule out a thunderstorm
capable of hail north of the front. But conditions along and south
of the boundary could become quite favorable for severe
thunderstorms, particularly Friday morning into early afternoon.
The tricky part is determining exactly where the boundary will be
at this time. It could be near the coast or offshore, keeping the
strongest storms over the Gulf. But it could be over our coastal
counties, which would increase the severe thunderstorm threat near
the coast.

Temperatures on Friday are quite tricky. Areas ahead of the front
could make a run for the 80 degree mark, while areas north of the
front drop into the 50s. Current forecast high temperatures range
from upper 50s in our northern Piney Woods zones to mid/upper 60s
along I-10 and mid/upper 70s at the beaches. But with clouds,
rain, and CAA, I could see downward adjustments in expected
temperatures on Friday behind the front.

The system exits the region late Friday, yielding to a beautiful
weekend. Highs this weekend are expected to be in the 70s, with
overnight lows in the 40s and 50s (60s at the beaches). Enjoy the
cool weather while you can! Temperatures and humidity should
increase as we head into next week.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

A weak boundary is stalled along the I-10 corridor this morning,
and will remain near this positions through tonight. Areas north
of this boundary will see continued IFR to MVFR conditions through
the day (CIGs between 700-1500ft), while areas to the south may
scatter out to VFR by the afternoon hours. Light north to
northeasterly winds will prevail through this morning, then
increasing to 8-12kt this afternoon into tonight. Isolated
showers are possible CXO northwards today, but chances increase
tonight into Friday. Isolated to scattered showers will develop
after midnight tonight with widespread shower activity expected
Friday morning through Friday night with isolated thunderstorms
possible. Locally heavy rainfall is expected on Friday, especially
north of I-10.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A few showers and storms are possible on Thursday along with
continued southeasterly flow, though there could be a weak land
breeze in the morning. A strong late season cold front is expected
to push into the region on Friday, bringing a chance of rain and
thunderstorms on Friday and Friday night. A few stronger
thunderstorms are possible on Friday, capable of producing large
hail, gale force winds, and even a waterspout. In addition, the
front will bring strong winds and building seas. Winds are
expected to increase from the east early Friday, before shifting
northward and increasing further Friday night. Winds of 25 to 35
knots are expected, along with rough bay waters and Gulf seas up
to 8-12 feet. Gale force winds (at least in gusts) are expected
Friday night into Saturday morning. Some of the more aggressive
model guidance suggest winds could occasionally gust over 40
knots. Conditions should gradually improve Saturday afternoon
through Sunday. By Monday- Tuesday, the pattern should return to
light- moderate onshore flow regime.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  60  62  52 /  40  80 100  50
Houston (IAH)  82  64  66  55 /  40  70 100  70
Galveston (GLS)  81  70  75  60 /  30  50  90  80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion