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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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909
FXUS64 KHGX 182347
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
647 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to
  develop along a cold front this afternoon and evening. Localized
  downpours will be possible, which could result in instances of
  minor flooding in urban, low-lying and poor drainage areas.

- Seasonal conditions expected in the wake of the front going into
  early next week.

- Hazardous Marine Conditions: Moderate to strong northeasterly
  winds and building seas are expected Saturday night through
  Sunday evening following the passage of the cold front. Gusts to gale
  will be possible.

- There will be a moderate to high risk of strong rip currents
  along all Gulf-facing beaches through at least the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Frontal boundary is currently making its way through the northern
Metro area. Showers have begin popping up just ahead of it. Expect
activity to increase as we go into the afternoon hours. Dynamics do
look favorable for a few stronger storms. CAPE values are expected
to exceed 2000 J/kg this afternoon with shear values around 40-25
kts, both of which could lead to more organized storms that would
have the potential to create gusty winds and some hail.

In addition to those hazards, PWAT values closer to the coast are
running high (values around 2.0"), which will contribute to heavy
downpours with some of those storms. This could lead to isolated
instances of flooding, particularly in urban and low-lying areas and
areas with poor drainage. WPC has maintained a Marginal Risk for
portions of southeast Texas.

HRRR seemed to have a good handle on this morning`s events that
occurred to our west, and has so far continued to initialize well.
So, using that model--looks like we will see activity really bubble
up closer to 3 PM across the Metro and Coastal Plains as the front
slows down during its approach to the coast. Expect showers and
storms to continue through the evening hours, transitioning to
primarily showers during the overnight hours, heavy downpours will
still be possible with some of the overnight showers.

A reinforcing front will bring the drier cooler conditions into the
area from NW to SE overnight into Sunday morning.
Additionally, expect winds to increase during that time through
Sunday afternoon with gusts to 20-25 mph inland and up to 30 mph
along the coast.

Cooler weather will continue through Monday night with daytime highs
in the low 70s and overnight lows in the 40s (isolated spots in the
upper 40s further north). A gradual warming period will take place
through the remainder of the week with highs in the mid 70s on
Tuesday and reaching into the mid 80s by the end of the week next
week.

Next chance of rain is set for Monday night into Tuesday as an upper-
level low moves through the area. PWATs expected to increase to
above 1.5" during that time, so may see another round of heavy
downpours with some of those showers. WPC has an area along and
south of a line from just south of College Station stretching over
to Galveston Bay in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall.
With this event still a few days out, please make sure to monitor
the forecast for any changes.

Bailey

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

The anticipated cold front has swept through all by LBX and GLS,
which it will be doing within the next hour or two. While the
front will have pushed off the coast, lingering moisture will lead
to scattered showers (and even an isolated thunderstorm) through
late tonight before ending north to south. Some isolated showers
may linger near GLS through sunrise.

MVFR conditions will prevail through the night with CIGs around
1500-2000ft and some scattered lower clouds. The clouds will
scatter out through the early morning hours giving way to VFR
conditions that will persist through Sunday.

The cold front has ushered in strong north-northeasterly winds
with sustained winds of 15-20kt and gusts to 25-30kt. These winds
will persist through Sunday morning, then slowly lower and veer
through the day on Sunday. Winds will be strongest near the coast
impacting GLS.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

While light to moderate onshore flow will continue through
Saturday afternoon, a drastic change in conditions is expected
Saturday night into Sunday following the passage of a cold front.
This front is expected to push through the coastal waters Saturday
evening into Saturday night. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will develop Saturday afternoon/evening ahead of the
front with showers lingering through early Sunday morning due to
lingering moisture behind the front. Isolated downpours and gusty
winds will be possible with any thunderstorms that develop.

Strong north to northeasterly winds are expected to develop behind
the passage of the cold front. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect
for the Bays Saturday evening into early Sunday afternoon due to
expected wind speeds of 20-30kt with frequent gusts to gale (around
35kt) during the late night/early morning hours. The highest wind
gusts will likely occur near the Bay entrances. A Gale Watch has
been issued for the same timeframe for the nearshore waters where
winds of 25-30kt with frequent gusts to 35-40kt possible. A Gale
Warning has been issued for the offshore waters. Very rough bay
waters and seas of 5-8ft in the nearshore waters and 7-10ft in the
offshore waters are expected. While the gale conditions are expected
to end early Sunday afternoon, there will be elevated winds and seas
through late Sunday. Winds veer through Monday with onshore flow
expected by Monday night.

Beach Forecast: There is a high risk of strong rip currents along
Gulf-facing beaches through Saturday. There will also be increased
wave run-up and elevated tides through Saturday (high tides running
around 3-3.3ft above MLLW). Elevated tides are expected to return
early next week as the onshore flow returns.

Fowler/Bailey

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  51  74  54  69 /  50   0  10  20
Houston (IAH)  56  73  57  72 /  70  10   0  20
Galveston (GLS)  60  73  67  74 /  80  30  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ330-335.

     Gale Watch through Sunday afternoon for GMZ350-355.

     Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Bailey

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion