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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

768
FXUS64 KHGX 110505
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1205 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot weather and low rain chances expected over the next several
  days.

- Greater heat stress and higher risk of triple digit highs this
  weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Rain chances are only downhill from this point forward as ridging
slowly builds throughout the Gulf Coast. A few isolated showers and
possibly a storm or two could develop this afternoon along the sea
breeze. Wednesday will see rain chances become very sparse to near
zero for the foreseeable future, save for the occasional passing
disturbance undercutting the ridge. Speaking of the ridge, it is
still progged to shift north into the SE CONUS and intensify by the
weekend. Midlevel heights are forecasted to reach 596-598 dam over
SE Texas by this point, putting them over the 99th climatological
percentile (NAEFS). LREF & NBM ensembles suggest greater chances for
triple digit high temperatures occuring on these days, as well as
early next week. WBGT Heat stress on the human body is forecasted to
be high, with some isolated spots peaking at extreme. Highs will be
in the 90s, breaking triple digits in spots, and heat indicies will
range from 100-107 at least. Will be closely monitoring the heat
each day as a result. Chances for heat-related hazard headlines
still look more favorable this weekend through early next week.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

For the 11/00Z TAF update, ridging will gradually begin to
influence the southeast Texas airspace with convective potential
waning by tomorrow afternoon. That said, the lower potential for -SHRA/-TSRA
remains mostly along and south of KIAH by 11/18Z-23Z. This, in
combination with some additional patchy FG, means windows for
MVFR/IFR vis/cigs at 11/12Z-15Z and 11/18Z-23Z, respectively.
Southerly winds will also remain in the 5-10 kts. range,
maximizing in speeds near 10 kts. by the end of the period.

Cassel

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Light to moderate onshore winds and seas of 2-4 feet are expected
today through around Wednesday. During the second half of the work
week, winds and seas will increase slightly, potentially
warranting caution flags at times.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  97  76  98  77 /  10  20   0   0
Houston (IAH)  96  79  97  79 /  20  20  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  91  84  91  84 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Cassel
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion