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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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479
FXUS64 KHGX 102344
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
644 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect increasingly warm and humid conditions as the week
  progresses.

- Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms persist into next
  week with chances peaking today and Sunday where there is a
  marginal risk for excessive rainfall and severe weather for
  northern areas.

- Strong rip currents expected along Gulf-facing beaches through
  the end of the week.

- Monitoring the potential for strong to severe storms early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Satellite derived PW values across most of Southeast TX are around
the 90th percentile (~1.53") as an embedded shortwave trough pushes
through the area leading to the development of isolated to scattered
showers as early as before dawn. As we move into the late
morning/early afternoon hours, coverage of these showers in addition
to thunderstorms development are expected to increase as daytime
heating becomes a factor. The latest CAMs (12Z) have the majority of
the coverage continuing to be in the south of I-10/west of I-45
corridor. This area has also seen the most activity this morning, so
the environment may be worked over a bit. However, visible
satellite reflects that cloud cover is clearing out in these
southwestern zones which means that sunshine will aid in
destabilization. With PW values near the 90th percentile, locally
heavy rainfall will be possible in any of the stronger
showers/storms. The caveat to today`s rain chances is increasing
subsidence as ridging aloft builds in throughout the day. 500mb
heights will be in the 584-586 dam range by this evening.

For Saturday, elevated low-level moisture continues with PW values
remaining around the 90th percentile. The ridge will gradually push
out to the east leading to better shower/storm chances for areas to
the west of I-45. Convective coverage on Saturday will be less than
what occurred on Friday, since there is no shortwave trough pushing
through the area.

Sunday is when things get a bit more interesting as PW values surge
to near or over the MAX percentile (~1.88"). In addition to this, a
passing jet streak and LLJ will have portions of the Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods in the right entrance region which is indicative
of upper level divergence. Another addition to this is a passing
embedded shortwave trough that pushes through North Texas and
portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods. There will be at least
some instability in place (~1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE) in our northern
zones, but greater amounts of instability will be off to our west.
There is still some potential for a storm or two to become strong to
severe. As a result, SPC has outlined areas generally northwest of a
Burleson-College Station-Madisonville line in a marginal risk (level
1 out of 5) of severe weather for Sunday. With PW values near the
MAX percentile, locally heavy rainfall will be possible in any of
the stronger storms. High rainfall rates (2-3+"/hr) for an extended
period of time could lead to instances of localized urban and small
stream flooding. As a result, WPC has outlined areas generally north
of a Bellville-Huntsville-Trinity line in a marginal risk (level 1
of 4) of excessive rainfall on Sunday.

The ridge axis sliding to the east on Saturday is the result of an
approaching upper level low from the Pacific Northwest. This upper
level low will evolve into an upper level trough and push into the
Central Plains in the Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe. The latest
deterministic model guidance keeps the upper level trough further
north than previous model runs, which explains why the 15% severe
probability for the middle of next week was pushed to our northwest.
That being said, there will still be a dry line set up to our
northwest over in western Texas along with instability and moisture
due to being in the warm sector of a surface low...so we`ll still
have to monitor for the potential of strong to severe storms as we
head into the early to middle part of next week. Be sure to stay up
to date on the forecast for the latest details and remain weather
aware.

As far as temperatures go, high temperatures will remain generally
in the upper 70s to low 80s through the weekend with mid to upper
80s likely coming by the middle part of next week. Low temperatures
will range from the mid 60s to low 70s, but those low 70s will
become increasingly widespread as we head into the weekend. In case
you were curious on if there is any potential relief from these warm
temperatures (outside of the rain), I have some bad news for you.
Ensemble guidance shows nothing but a high probability of above
normal temperatures for the foreseeable future. Let`s start the
countdown clock for the next cold front! ETA: ~7 months... :`(

Batiste/Serrett

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

As of this evening, latest radar was seeing showers breaking down
with anticipation to see impacts to the taf sites end by around
01Z. Moving into the overnight will see another round of MVF CIGs
present for multiple sites with potential to see a brief window
of IFR conditions as well. These CIGs are likely to remain present
through the late morning hours before returning to VFR levels by
the afternoon. Otherwise another round of showers and
thunderstorms remains possible tomorrow afternoon that will likely
tapper off by the evening time frame.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

East-southeasterly to southeasterly winds persist and will increase
going into the evening/overnight hours, so small craft should
continue to exercise caution through at least Saturday. Due to the
elevated onshore flow, the increased risk of strong rip currents
continues along Gulf-facing beaches through the weekend and into
early next week. Expect wave heights to remain elevated as well due
to an extended fetch of easterly to east-southeasterly winds
stretching into the eastern Gulf bringing in a swell of elevated
seas. Seas are expected to peak in the 5-7 ft range in the Gulf
waters through the weekend. Winds further increase over the weekend
and into early next week. Small Craft Advisories cannot be ruled
out. Daily chances for showers and storms will persist going into
next week, but these chances peak today as an upper level
disturbance pushes through the area. Elevated winds and seas could
occur in and around thunderstorms.

Batiste/Serrett

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  66  81  68  79 /  20  40  10  70
Houston (IAH)  68  82  70  81 /  40  40   0  40
Galveston (GLS)  71  77  72  78 /  20  30   0  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 AM CDT Saturday for
     GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Scoleri
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion