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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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783
FXUS64 KHGX 200537
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1237 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, TROPICAL...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot conditions persist through the week. We will need to monitor
  for potential Heat Advisories beginning as early as Tuesday or
  Wednesday.

- NHC is monitoring the development of Tropical Depression Two,
  currently in the northeast Gulf. While forecast uncertainty
  remains fairly high, residents should monitor the latest
  forecasts and evolution of this system as it eventually tracks
  westward toward Texas Thursday and Friday.

- Corresponding rain and temperature forecasts for the local area
  are subject to changes later in the week and highly dependent on
  the tropics.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

High pressure remains fixed over our region bringing hot, sunny, dry
conditions during the first half of the workweek. High temperatures
are forecast to climb a few more degrees each day into midweek (95-
102 inland, 91-95 coast). Dry column of air in place should keep
heat index readings from reaching advisory criteria today. This
will need to be monitored Tuesday-Wednesday as higher moisture levels
begin advancing into the region from the east allowing heat indices
to possibly exceed 108+ degrees for parts of SE TX. Low temperatures
should follow a slight uptick with the increasing moisture, but
remain 70s inland and low 80s along the coast. Light winds
primarily from the W and SW in the mornings, becoming more
southerly in the afternoons with the seabreeze.

The high pressure aloft will act as a major steering mechanism for
Tropical Depression Two. It should linger in the northeastern and
north central Gulf for the first half of the week. Mid level
ridging should gradually build north of the system, eventually
driving it (possibly a TS) more to the west and toward Texas.
Corresponding rain and temperature forecasts across the area will
depend on its eventual track and finer details that still need to
be ironed out and subject to change. BSM/47

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. There may be a
FEW cloud deck at 015-025 overnight, but should stay away from
MVFR conditions on the cigs. The exception could be CXO, a
normally fog-prone terminal, which could see fog again late
tonight. For now, kept conditions above MVFR restrictions, but
will reassess in later forecasts. Winds generally out of the S/SW
around 5-10 kt through the next 24 hours.

Young

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Light to moderate southwest and southerly winds, 2-4 foot seas, hot,
and dry conditions are expected through midweek. Mariners should
keep tabs on Tropical Depression Two, currently situated in the
northeast Gulf, as the week progresses. It is forecast to eventually
strengthen into a tropical storm as it approaches southeast
Louisiana toward midweek, then possibly toward the Texas coast
Thursday and Friday. Considerable forecast uncertainty exists and
track and intensity changes are subject to change. 47/BSM

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Tropical Depression Two over the northeast Gulf is forecast to
become a tropical storm as it get closer to the SE LA area toward
midweek. General consensus and the NHC forecast suggests it`ll
eventually become steered by mid level ridging to its north...and
possibly impact Texas later in the week. There is considerable
forecast uncertainty at the moment...which is common with weak,
unorganized, slow moving, and newly formed systems. TD Two will be
encountering some drier air and moderate shear aloft at times.
Residents should keep a watchful on on the latest NHC forecasts.
For planning purposes, current forecasts reflect the potential for
the arrival of some TS winds across parts of the region on
Thursday. There`s generally less than a 1-out-of-10 chance (10%)
they`d arrive any earlier than Wednesday night. BSM/47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  97  74  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  99  76 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  91  80  94  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BSM/47
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...BSM/47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion