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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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578
FXUS64 KHGX 221110
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
610 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory remains in effect. Hot conditions will persist
  through next week.

- Isolated thunderstorms possible late Saturday afternoon /
  evening. Best chance of a storm will be across our northern
  zones.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Taking a look at the large-scale view of the weather pattern via
water vapor satellite imagery and 500 MB RAP analysis, one can see
that the strong mid/upper ridge centered over the Four Corners
region continues to be the dominant force over the Texas
atmosphere. A quick glance at the global ensemble data shows that
this ridge will likely remain dominant through at least the middle
to later part of next week. If you have not been enjoying the
recent very hot conditions, then I send to you my profound
apologies. This pattern will likely skew temperatures hotter than
normal through the next week, though perhaps we can dial the heat
down slightly by the end of next week. Triple digit heat will be
the norm across inland Southeast Texas, with low/mid 90s at the
beaches. Humidity will easily make it feel 5-10 degrees hotter. A
heat advisory is in effect through Sunday. I won`t be surprised if
we end up issuing advisories well into the upcoming week.

Perhaps a few of you will experience some heat relief in the form
of an isolated afternoon / evening thunderstorm. There was
actually quite a bit of thunderstorm activity east of our region
on Friday, with isolated activity occurring in our Piney Woods
zones. Though Saturday`s atmosphere will nearly the same
synoptically, there could modest mesoscale differences that bring
isolated storms to areas that remained dry on Friday. For
example, we`ll need to watch some of these outflow boundaries
approaching from the east thanks to Friday`s Louisiana storms.
There will also be additional weak disturbances in the flow aloft
worth watching. Monitoring these weak disturbances will likely be
a theme throughout the next week. But generally speaking, expect
mostly dry and very hot conditions through the forecast period.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 528 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

A few sites may see some MVFR cigs/vis through around 14Z this
morning. Thereafter, VFR conditions are expected. SW winds this
morning will be at 5-10 kts, turning S-SE during the mid-late
afternoon hours. Winds will once again become S-SW during the
night hours. With respect to rain, there`s a chance for isolated
showers/storms later today and this evening. Confidence of actual
location of these showers/storms is low, thus, didn`t include wx
for this TAF issuance but may be added in the 18Z issuance or as
AMDs.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

South to southwest winds are expected to average 10-15 knots over
the next several days. Gusts to 20 knots will be possible in the
bays during the afternoon and in the Gulf during the overnight.
Thunderstorm activity is expected to the north of the region
Saturday. We cannot rule out a storm making it down to the coast
late afternoon and evening. Gulf seas should average 2 to 3 feet
over the next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 103  79 103  78 /  20  10   0   0
Houston (IAH) 103  81 102  80 /  20  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  93  82  92  83 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion