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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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912
FXUS64 KHGX 161749
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1249 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Isolated thunderstorms continue today.

 - More widespread thunderstorm chances Thursday, particularly along
   the coast.

 - Generally hot and humid conditions persist into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Isolated onshore showers and thunderstorms are developing around
Matagorda Bay. These may pop up farther inland this afternoon,
however coverage only looks to be around 20% at best. Hot and humid
conditions will continue with highs in the mid-to-upper 90s and heat
indicies near 108. Any storms will taper off this evening and a
quiet night is expected with lows in the upper 70s to low 80s. The
tropical moisture surge remains expected for Thursday with average
model PWATs around 2.25". CAMs are slightly less aggressive with QPF
than synoptic guidance, however the general consensus continues to
be highest chances of showers and thunderstorms along the coast and
gradually decreasing farther north, closer to the center of a strong
upper ridge where the strongest capping will be present. Heavy
downpours will be the main threat with these storms. Use caution on
the morning/evening commutes.

The aforementioned ridge will stall over north central Texas between
a broad trough to the west and closed low tracking westward across
Florida. Combined with drier air on Friday, even the usual onshore
precipitation should hold off and we will see a brief reprieve from
the higher humidities with most heat indicies staying below 100
across the area. Although the capping and lack of storm chances will
continue into Saturday, the humidity will return though with heat
indicies returning to the triple-digits. The ridge will begin to
weaken on Sunday and the usual onshore diurnal convection should
start to return, however the aforementioned upper low will weaken as
well. Thus no major large-scale systems are expected to impact the
area for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

SE winds persist across the area as the afternoon progresses. There
is a slight chance for isol SH/TS, but not high enough to warrant it
in any terminal sites. AS the evening arrives diurnally driven winds
become LGT and VRB to near calm. This brining the chance for BR near
CXO and other low-lying areas. The main impact tomorrow is an E`rly
wave arriving brining increased tropical moisture. Coastal terminal,
LBX/GLS currently have a PROB30 for TSRA during the afternoon time
frame. Currently there is uncertainty pf how far inland the
convection  will meander following along the sea breeze. A prob30
has been omitted in IAH due to this. The conditions will continued
to be monitored and amended as needed tonight and tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Due easterly winds near 15 kts will persist through Thursday
morning, before increasing to around 20 kts thereafter through early
Friday morning. Winds will diminish back to between 15-20 kts Friday
and become lighter this week. Seas of 2 to 3 ft will continue today
and increase to 4 to 6 ft Thursday before gradually subsiding Friday
into the weekend. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible
today and will become more widespread Thursday, particularly
offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  97  74  97 /   0  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  79  93  77  94 /  10  30   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  83  91  84  90 /  50  60   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AP
AVIATION...CMW
MARINE...AP

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion