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415
FXUS64 KHGX 240027
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
727 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Bertha will remain weak as it pushes across area today, bringing
  scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms, and occasionally
  breezy conditions.

- The heat will build this weekend into next week, possibly
  warranting advisories by Sunday or Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Bertha continues to fall apart as it moves into southeast Texas.
The center of circulation can be seen as a swirl on radar, moving
across the TX/LA border. Disorganized shower/thunderstorm
activity has been sheared well to the south and over the Gulf. A
few thunderstorms have produced gales offshore. But aside from
locally strong thunderstorm gusts offshore, the strongest winds
are on the backside of the system, roughly 20-30 MPH with gusts
35-40 MPH. As the center pushes farther west, we suspect winds at
the coast will increase from the south to southeast around 15-25
MPH with gusts up to around 30-35 MPH. MAYBE we can muster a
stronger gust at the coast if deeper convection can erupt. But if
the latest trends are of any indication, then our area is
unlikely to receive much more than some scattered showers,
isolated thunderstorms, and a general increase in the breeze.

Bertha will become a distant memory as a ridge amplifies this
weekend into early next week across central and western CONUS.
This will shift the focus back to the heat, with heat advisories
possibly warranted again by Sunday or Monday. Given the continued
deep, onshore flow in Bertha`s wake, we cannot totally rule out a
few stray showers on Friday. But by the weekend and beyond, the
weather outlooks appears dry and hot. Afternoon temperatures are
forecast to be in the mid/upper 90s over the weekend, with triple
digit heat possible again for much of next week. With strong
ridging aloft, we may be able to mix in lower dew points during
the peak heating of the day. But peak afternoon heat index values
could still approach 110F even if dew points drop into the upper
60s. Heat Stress (as a function of WBGT) is expected to reach the
extreme category in urban areas by Monday, and could become
extreme in many suburban and potentially rural areas by the middle
of next week.

Hot times ahead y`all!

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 727 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Lingering showers and storms associated with now Tropical
Depression Bertha continue to push westward and away from the
Houston metro terminals. Some lingering rain showers will remain
possible over and around area terminals themselves through 02-03Z.
Afterwards, the main impact will be the timing of MVFR ceilings
lifting back to VFR which as of right now looks to be generally
between 05Z-12Z from south to north overnight. Southeasterly to
southerly winds will prevail late this evening into Friday with
sustained winds around 10 kt and occasional gusts around 15-20 kt
through the afternoon. Some isolated showers will be possible
Friday late morning/afternoon, but coverage is too low for any TAF
mentions.

Batiste/Gonzalez

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

As Bertha pushes inland into Texas, winds on the backside of the
system will increase from the SW to S, then from the SE. Winds
this evening into tonight are expected to be 15-25 knots, with
occasional gusts over 30 knots possible. IF thunderstorm activity
can redevelop offshore, then there would be potential for locally
higher winds. Seas are likely to build somewhat this evening and
tonight, possibly exceeding 6 feet in some offshore areas.

As we go into Friday and beyond, the pattern will trend drier and
hotter. Winds this weekend into early next week should be light to
moderate from the S to SW. The heat could become intense, with
Heat Advisories possible in our coastal communities by Sunday or
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  78  94  75  95 /  30  20   0   0
Houston (IAH)  79  94  77  96 /  40  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  83  90  83  90 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CDT Friday for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Friday for GMZ330-335-350-
     355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion