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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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790
FXUS64 KHGX 260001
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
601 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm and humid conditions along with overnight/morning
  dense fog to continue into the weekend. Temperatures will be in
  the vicinity of records, and a few isolated records may be tied
  or broken.

- Strong cold front late Sunday night into Monday morning to bring
  much colder conditions early next week.

- Gale conditions possible behind the front in the Gulf waters
  and bays late Sunday night through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1246 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Southeast Texas remains in the humid, holiday soup on this
Christmas Day, with warm and humid conditions likely to continue
into the weekend. In the mid/upper levels, our pattern continues
to be dominated by a large ridge over central CONUS and a
mid/upper low over eastern Mexico. The ridge has played an outsize
role in keeping conditions warm. Meanwhile, the low has made sure
the profile remains relatively moist (or at least not too dry),
preventing the skies from becoming mostly sunny. These clouds
will likely keep temperatures just below records, though I
wouldn`t rule out someone achieving a record today. This moist
environment will also continue to favor the development of
overnight / morning fog. Fog may linger near the coast into the
early afternoon. Isolated afternoon showers cannot be ruled out.

The pattern changes drastically as we head into early next week.
Deep ridging is replaced by deep troughing, while the prolonged
onshore LL flow regime is quickly ended by a strong cold front
that will push arctic air down the plains and into southeast
Texas late Sunday night into Monday. This will be felt in the form
of falling temperatures and gusty winds. We could even have gales
over the Gulf. Rain showers are possible along and ahead of the
front. We`ve noticed a colder trend in some of the guidance
today. Given the likely ~1040MB high that will press arctic air
up against the Rockies and down the plains, we should not be
surprised if temperatures end up a little colder than forecast.
For my Monday-Tuesday temperatures, I mixed in some 25th
percentile NBM temps to skew us a little colder than the model
mean. For Monday night and Tuesday night lows, this blend results
in overnight lows near or just below freezing for most areas
outside Houston`s urban heat island and away from the coast. In
the case of our northern Piney Woods zones, we have overnight lows
in the mid/upper 20s! I`m a little uncertain with Monday`s highs.
Our current blend produces afternoon temperatures in the
mid/upper 40s in our northern counties to low/mid 50s I-10 to
upper 50s at the coast. But given the potential for clouds and
strong CAA, I`m not going to be surprised if these temperatures
need to be revised downward. 12Z ECMWF already coming in ~5
degrees colder than our current forecast for Monday afternoon. For
Tuesday, the blend shows temperature struggling to reach 50.
Temperatures modify by the middle of next week, with near normal
temperatures expected by New Years Day.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 539 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Fog is rolling back in along the coast with IFR to LIFR conditions
returning to GLS and LBX within the next couple of hours.
Prevailing LIFR conditions are expected by 5-7z south of I-10 with
CIGs down to 300ft and dense fog reducing visibility down to 1/2mi
or less). Terminal north of I-10 should have prevailing MVFR to
IFR conditions, but TEMPO periods of LIFR conditions will be
possible at IAH and CXO late tonight into daybreak Friday.
Conditions improve through the morning hours with MVFR conditions
returning by 16z, and then VFR by 19z (but may linger at GLS into
the afternoon). Another foggy night is expected Friday night.

Light southerly winds are expected through Friday morning with
southwesterly winds of 5-10kt expected Friday afternoon.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1246 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Areas of fog continue to impact the bays and Gulf waters this
afternoon. Visibilities have significantly improved for the most
part relative to this morning. That being said, any clearing is
likely to only last a few hours at most. By late this afternoon
or early this evening, sea fog is expected to gradually become
more widespread once again. The pattern will remain favorable for
sea fog through Sunday. However, winds become more south to south-
southwest on Friday into the weekend. This may help to bring
longer breaks in the fog. But the confidence on this is low.

A strong cold front pushes offshore Sunday night into Monday
morning. Rain showers are possible along and ahead of the front.
Conditions behind the front are expected to feature strong
northerly winds and building seas. The risk of gale conditions
continues to increase over the Gulf. Gusts to gale force are
possible over the bays. Seas could top 10 feet offshore while
water levels in the bays could become hazardously low by Monday or
Tuesday. Small Craft Advisory level conditions could continue well
into Tuesday before winds and seas improve and become less
hazardous.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  65  81  66  81 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  66  81  66  81 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  65  72  65  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ335-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion