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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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650
FXUS64 KHGX 110505
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1205 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Waves continue to subside today through the weekend, however, a
  risk of rip currents remains through the week.

- Lower humidity this weekend, resulting in seasonable overnight
  lows but above normal daytime highs.

- Gradual warming trend into next week with isolated rain chances
  daily.

- Cold front on the horizon... generally around Friday-Saturday.
  Cooler fall temps and higher rain chances possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Mid-upper level ridging settles in after the passage of Hurricane
Isaias to our east. This high pressure persists throughout the
upcoming week and stifles rain chances for the rest of the weekend.
However, winds have returned out of the SE, bringing back moisture
(PWATs over 2 inches) by Monday. A surface boundary to our southwest
(near Matagorda Bay) moves inland Monday morning. This, along with
afternoon sea breezes and elevated PWATs, provide renewed rain
chances Mon-Wed, beginning as early as Monday morning. Even with
these conditions in place, we are still under widespread ridging, so
expected rain coverage is isolated-scattered.

The returned moisture flow means we can also anticipate warmer,
muggier conditions. Patchy fog is possible, particularly west of I-
45 and dissipates as the sun rises. Highs will be in the upper
80s/low 90s and lows will be in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

We may see relief from these warm, muggy conditions this upcoming
weekend. Models agree that a broad pocket of cold temperatures dig
into the NE U.S. from Canada. However, models disagree on just how
far south the low pressure system and associated cold front will
bring these temperatures. The GFS suggests a tight gradient of theta-
e values digging deep into Texas overnight Friday into Saturday,
dropping daytime highs into the 60s. The ECMWF is much more
conservative, with a very weak theta-e gradient and highs "dropping"
slightly to the low-mid 80s. Humidity relief is suggested across the
board though, with winds veering to the north/northeast, meaning we
could at least hope for reduced Gulf moisture impacts. The winds
with this frontal passage are likewise uncertain, where the GFS
suggests a 925mb  jet of 40-50kts and the ECMWF only suggests 20-
30kts. Confidence will build with time, but for now we continue to
monitor for a relief in humidity and the potential for strong
northerly winds.

BSM

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Winds will be light out
of the southeast in the morning, becoming light to moderate in the
afternoon/evening, with gusts to 20 knots at times. Light patchy fog
may develop around 12Z-14Z in the Brazos Valley, bringing brief MVFR
conditions to KCLL.

Bailey

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Moderate rip current risks continue through Sunday morning
and increase early next week. Winds are from the SE between 10-20kts
and seas are between 2-4 ft until the potential for a frontal
passage Friday night. At this point, winds veer to the NE and become
gusty into Saturday. Being this far out from FROPA, confidence is
low on the strength of the front, but we`re watching for the
potential for elevated winds and seas Friday night into Saturday.
For the short term, mostly clear skies to wrap up the weekend with
rain chances picking pack up Mon-Wed.

BSM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  67  93  74  95 /   0  40   0  50
Houston (IAH)  72  91  76  92 /   0  40  10  60
Galveston (GLS)  79  86  81  86 /   0  40  10  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BSM
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...BSM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion