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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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471
FXUS64 KHGX 102325
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
625 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Deeper tropical moisture has filtered into the region and
  should provide 30-60% chances of showers and thunderstorms each
  day through this weekend. Overall coverage should be highest
  across the southern half of the region.

- Let`s keep an eye out for even better chances of precipitation
  Monday-Tuesday across all of the area. Localized heavy rain
  cannot be ruled out.

- Hotter conditions and lower rain/storm chances during the
  second half of the work week as higher pressure filters in from
  the east.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Deeper tropical moisture has successfully filtered into southeast TX
early this afternoon, with recent Blended TPW satellite imagery
indicating widespread PW values in the 2.0-2.3 inch range. This deep
moisture profile, combined with peak daytime heating and weak lift
associated with a subtle inverted trough sliding by to our south,
will remain sufficient to support widely scattered showers and
storms through the remainder of the afternoon. Some localized heavy
downpours will be possible, but expect this activity to gradually
diminish by early this evening.

Tropical moisture is expected to stick around over the next few days
with PWs running in the 90th/95th percentile of climatology for
this time of year. Therefore, increased rain/storm chances are
expected Saturday and Sunday. Generally, expect showers and storms
to initiate along the coastal counties and waters during the late
night/morning hours, spreading inland during the afternoon. This
will not be a complete washout and not everyone will see rain each
day; however, keep an eye on the skies and have a temporary plan B
ready if planning outdoor activities.

Heading into late Sunday/Monday, the pattern aloft shifts as the
ridge strengthens and expands across the Rockies and central CONUS.
Southeast Texas will be positioned on the southern periphery of this
expansive high, setting up a highway for multiple impulses of
energy/vort maxes embedded in the flow aloft to ride westward
through midweek. At the surface and up through 700 mb, enhanced low-
level convergence will be in place as a weak frontal boundary sags
southward along the southeastern CONUS. This convergent setup,
paired with the persistent deep moisture and daytime heating,
warrants maintaining rain/storm chances in the forecast. On a side
note, will also continue to monitor the potential arrival of drier
air aloft Monday into Tuesday, likely associated with another
incoming round of the Saharan Air Layer. At the moment, uncertainty
remains regarding the overall thickness and density of this dust
layer, and whether it will deliver a sufficient amount of dry air
aloft to suppress deep convection.  For now, have leaved towards a
wetter forecast, with 60 - 80% PoPs Sunday through Tuesday.
Localized heavy rain and occasional gusty winds will be possible
within the strongest storms. WPC highlights this risk in their
Sunday into Tuesday period with a Slight and/or Marginal risk for
excessive rainfall. Abundant cloud cover and rain chances will
result in a couple of days of highs mainly in the mid 80s to near
90, at least.

Beyond Wednesday...high pressure builds/expands over the northern
Gulf/southeastern CONUS. This building ridge will give way to hotter
conditions and higher heat indices across the region along with
isolated diurnally-driven seabreeze activity.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Similar to yesterday afternoon, today`s showers and thunderstorms
are expected to dissipate in the next few hours. Associated
elevated and gusty winds should gradually lower through the
evening, becoming near calm overnight. In general, SSE/SE winds
prevail through the TAF period, aside from light VRB winds on
Saturday morning for sites along and around I-10. Another few
rounds of scattered showers/thunderstorms is in store for
tomorrow. In the early morning hours, guidance indicates some
coastal convective activity gradually pushing north through
sunrise. Isolated to scattered activity can be expected through
the morning, until another round of thunderstorms moves through
the region tomorrow afternoon. With the stronger storms, expect
reductions in visibility, gusty and erratic winds, and lightning.
Following a similar pattern to today, tomorrow`s convective
activity is expected to dissipate by tomorrow evening.

MLG


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Onshore winds around 10 to 15 knots with gusts between 15 to 20
knots will persist tonight and into the weekend. Seas will generally
remain 2 to 4 ft through the period. A daily threat of scattered
showers and storms is expected with the best chances overnight into
the morning hours, spreading over the bays by late morning/early
afternoon. More numerous activity is expected Monday and Tuesday.
While severe weather is not anticipated, heavy downpours, lightning,
gusts around 25 to 35 kts, and building seas cannot be ruled out
near any stronger storms. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution
conditions will be possible at times through at least next Wednesday.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  93  76  93 /  20  40  20  30
Houston (IAH)  78  92  77  93 /  30  40  20  60
Galveston (GLS)  84  90  83  89 /  50  40  30  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...MLG
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion