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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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961
FXUS64 KHGX 122329
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
529 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s through
  Friday, with increasing humidity. Fog likely during the night
  to early morning hours.

- The next system is forecast to pass through Southeast Texas
  late Friday through late Saturday. Periods of showers and
  thunderstorms are likely. Heavy rainfall and isolated storms
  will be possible.

- Conditions will turn drier and warm, with more comfortable
  humidity levels from Sunday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

The weak front that stalled near the coastal locations yesterday
will be slowly lifting north-northeastward today as a weak warm
front. A mid to upper level ridge is building overhead and will
help limit rain activity. However, the combination of slightly
higher moisture amounts over areas south of I-10, small pockets of
mid level vorticity and mid level weaknesses passing through, as
well as the proximity of the front, may be enough to produce light
showers this afternoon. Otherwise, expect periods of sunny to
partly cloudy skies and warmer temperatures with highs peaking in
the upper 70s to lower 80s inland and the lower to mid 70s along
the coasts. Tranquil and warm conditions will continue into
Friday. Our overnight lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to
lower 60s areawide and the highs on Friday will be similar to
today`s.

Our next weather event will take place from late Friday into late
Saturday (Valentine`s Day). To start of, a mid to upper level
trough currently over California will move eastward and into the
Central/Southern Plains late Friday into early Saturday. As it
does so, the mid to upper level ridge overhead will weaken during
the nighttime hours and a low level jet will begin to develop over
Southeast Texas as low level moisture increases. During this
timeframe, we could see areas of showers and possibly isolated
storms starting to develop from the west and northwest, which then
gradually expands eastward as we approach sunrise time.

A surface low and associated cold front moving into North/Central
Texas early Saturday morning will quickly progress eastward
towards East/Southeast Texas during the day. Ahead of the front,
instability and moisture convergence will ramp up (dewpoints in
the mid to upper 60s), the low level jet will strengthen to 30-40
knots, and the upper jet will sink into the Texas coast. We will
see showers and thunderstorms increasing during the morning hours,
with numerous to widespread showers over Southeast Texas by the
afternoon hours. Models continue to show the cold front moving
through Southeast Texas rather quickly, arriving the Brazos Valley
sometime in the late afternoon or evening period and exiting our
eastern counties around midnight. Due to how dry the soils are and
how fast the front progresses, significant flooding is not
expected at this time. What we could see, however, is ponding of
water along roadways and areas of poor drainage, especially with
training showers. There is also a chance for isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms in the afternoon to evening...biggest concern
is the potential for strong winds. SPC has placed a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms over all of Southeast
Texas on Saturday. If you have outdoor plans/surprises for
Valentines Day, please continue to monitor the forecast updates
and consider alternate plans if able.

Drier air will follow in behind the front Saturday night, although
the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region could still see some
moisture wrapping in from the surface low through Sunday. A push of
drier air (possibly from a weak reinforcing dry front) filters into
the area later on Sunday. Temperatures don`t cool down
significantly with this FROPA, but at least the drier air will
make it feel much more comfortable. The highs on Sunday look to
range in the upper 60s over the Piney Woods and the lower 70s
elsewhere. Sunday night temperatures will be in the upper 40s to
lower 50s north of I-10 and the lower 50s south of I-10.

Mostly dry conditions prevail during the first half of the upcoming
week, along with a gradual warming trend. High temperatures are
expected to bounce back into the upper 70s to lower 80s by Tuesday.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 521 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Anticipate rapidly deteriorating condition near the coast this
evening as sea fog rolls in, bringing IFR-VLIFR visibility & CIGS.
Low CIGS/VIS should slowly fill inland as the night progresses
with IFR-LIFR FLs likely as far north of KCXO. LIFR conditions may
briefly develop at KCLL and KUTS during the early morning hours
of Friday, though it may be much shorter lived with MVFR-IFR FLs
more prevalent in these areas. Conditions will begin the improve
late Friday morning with VFR conditions returning by the
afternoon. Some sea fog may loom off the coast from Galveston
during the daytime. Expect another round of ceilings and fog
Friday night.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 124 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Reports from vessel traffic service and satellite imagery indicate
areas of fog affecting portions of the Gulf waters. A Dense Fog
Advisory has been issued for the nearshore and offshore Gulf
waters and is in effect through Friday morning. Dense fog is
expected to expand over Galveston Bay and portions of Matagorda
Bay later today and tonight, thus, the bays will likely be added
to this Advisory as visibilities begin to reach Advisory criteria.

Winds and seas will be on an upward trend Friday in advance of
the next weather system. Caution flags may be needed. Chance for
showers and thunderstorms will increase late Friday into Saturday
as a cold front moves through the region. Periods of heavy
rain and strong gusty winds could accompany some of these storms.
In the wake of the front, expect west winds on Saturday night and
northwest winds on Sunday. Onshore flow returns early next week.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  60  80  62  73 /   0   0  20 100
Houston (IAH)  61  77  63  75 /   0  10  20  90
Galveston (GLS)  60  73  61  71 /   0  10  20  80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cotto
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion