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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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227
FXUS64 KHGX 161709
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1109 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances increase later tonight into tomorrow. Locally heavy
  showers possible in our coastal counties.

- Dry cold front on Thursday to bring seasonably cool conditions
  on Friday.

- Very warm pattern expected this weekend into early next week.
  Could not rule out record warmth.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1035 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Water vapor imagery and 500 MB RAP analysis show an approaching
positive tilt mid/upper trough extending from the central plains
to New Mexico and down to the Baja Peninsula. Robust lift and an
increasingly moist atmospheric profile will provide a favorable set
up for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across SE
Texas tomorrow, with widely scattered showers possible as early as
this evening and tonight. The most "spin" on water vapor imagery
is evident over northern Mexico, likely signaling the location of
the strongest lift. The general trajectory of this enhanced
vorticity is pointed towards South Texas. Therefore, it is no
surprise that ensemble and deterministic guidance show the best
chance of moderate to heavy rainfall occurring to the south of our
CWA. That being said, HREF ensemble maximums do show potential
for locally up to 1-2 inches of rainfall in our coastal counties,
particularly near Matagorda Bay. So we cannot rule out locally
heavy shower or storms. But for the most part, the rain is looking
quite manageable. Temperature wise, we expect slightly warmer
than normal conditions with morning lows in the 50s and highs
generally in the upper 60s to low 70s. Couldn`t rule out some
morning fog.

A cold front will approach the region on Thursday. We should sneak
in a relatively warm day ahead of the front, with highs generally
in the 70s. Could have some morning fog. The front pushes through
Thursday evening/night, bringing seasonably cool conditions in its
wake. Friday morning lows are expected to range from the upper 30s
to low 40s in our northern zones, to mid/upper 40s in Houston and
low 50s along the coast. Afternoon temperatures should generally
be in the 60s.

Long range ensembles favor a prolonged period of anomalous
mid/upper ridging over central CONUS starting this weekend and
continuing into the first half of next week. Meanwhile in the
lower levels, we expect continuous onshore flow, supplying the
region with moist Gulf air. This pattern supports warmer than
normal and more humid than normal conditions, with afternoon high
temperatures possibly as warm as the low 80s on some days. Could
be near record breaking temperature territory. Time will tell if
this pattern will last through Christmas. But if it does, then
Christmas may have a tropical feel to it this year.

Self



&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 503 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

VFR conditions will generally prevail through today with the
exception of some low clouds (around 2500ft) impacting GLS this
morning. Clouds are expected to increase through the day today,
but should remain above 5000ft. Once the sun sets, the clouds will
begin to lower with MVFR conditions with CIGs down to around
1500-2500ft between 4-6z tonight. Ceilings may begin to drop down
to below 1000ft around daybreak Wednesday and remain low through
at least the morning hours. In addition to the lowering CIGs,
patchy fog will be possible.

Isolated showers will begin to pop-up late tonight (around 7-9z)
with coverage expected to increase by daybreak. Isolated
thunderstorms will also be possible, first along the coast during
the overnight hours and then for most of the area during the day
on Wednesday.

SE winds will prevail today around 6-10kt with light, variable
winds expected overnight.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1035 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Light winds gradually veer onshore today, pushing moisture into
the region from warmer areas of the Gulf, resulting in favorable
conditions for patchy dense fog late overnight tonight into
Wednesday morning. Visibility Wednesday morning is expected to
average in the 4-6 nm range. However, occasional periods under 2
nm are possible, especially in the upper bays. Couldn`t rule out
localized spots under 1 nm. Chance of showers will increase early
tomorrow morning, with periods of rain and perhaps a few isolated
thunderstorms expected during the morning and early afternoon
hours. Rainfall is expected to taper by the late afternoon. Patchy
fog will be possible again on Thursday morning ahead of the next
front. The front is expected to push through late on Thursday,
bringing moderate to strong northeasterly flow in its wake. A
Small Craft Advisory may be warranted for Thursday night into
Friday morning.

The outlook for this weekend into early next week features warmer
and more humid than normal conditions. Depending on how much sea
surface temperatures rise and the exact trajectory of the winds,
the Upper Texas Coast may find itself in a favorable pattern for
sea fog during this time frame, especially during the overnight
and morning hours. As with any fog event more than a few days out,
there is considerable uncertainty regarding the fog risk this
weekend into early next week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  56  67  61  76 /  30  40   0   0
Houston (IAH)  58  67  61  76 /  50  60  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  61  67  62  72 /  50  70  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion