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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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617
FXUS64 KHGX 032340
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
640 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely scattered showers (and an isolated rumble of thunder)
  will be possible through this evening.

- Rain chances increase Saturday into Sunday morning as a slow
  moving cold front slides through the area. Isolated strong
  thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

- The cold front will usher in cooler, more seasonal temperatures
  for Sunday and extending into midweek next week.

- Risk of moderate to strong rip currents today into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Moist onshore flow has brought widely scattered light showers
streaming in from the Gulf today. This activity will be mostly
light rain/drizzle, but an isolated rumble of thunder or moderate
shower will be possible. Coverage begins to decrease this evening
with a lull in rain chances tonight. However, an approaching cold
front will begin to increase shower activity Saturday morning and
then then increase coverage as we head into the afternoon as the
front begins to push through the area. This will be a fairly slow
moving cold front, with it pushing through the Bryan-College
Station area/Piney Woods region between 1-4pm, through the I-10
Corridor between 4pm-7pm, and then to the coast between 7-11pm.
Lingering moisture behind the front and passing weak disturbances
aloft may continue the produce isolated showers along the coast
through Sunday afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible ahead of and along the cold front on Saturday, capable of
producing locally heavy rainfall, strong wind gusts, and hail.
SPC has placed most of SE Texas in a Marginal Risk of severe
thunderstorms for Saturday. WPC maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1
of 4) across all of SE Texas for excessive rainfall. Generally
looking at up to 1" of rainfall with the FROPA, but isolated
higher amounts of 2-3" cannot be ruled out where any strong
thunderstorms develop. Areas the the greatest risk of experiencing
minor urban and small stream flooding will be the areas that saw
the 2-3" of rainfall on Thursday (Brazos Valley to the Piney
Woods). The biggest impact from this rainfall will be the slowing
the expansion, or improving, drought conditions across SE Texas.

Once the lingering coastal showers depart Sunday, rain chances
will be minimal through at least mid-week next week. Isolated
coastal showers may be possible Tuesday into Wednesday as a
diffuse, weak disturbance slides over the region. Onshore
flow/increasing moisture will lead to a chance of streamer
showers/storms towards the end of the work week.

Warm, humid conditions will persist through Saturday afternoon
with overnight lows tonight remaining in the upper 60s through low
70s. High temperatures on Saturday will be largely dependent on
the timing of the FROPA. As of now, it looks like areas south of
Conroe will have enough daytime heating ahead of the front to
bring high temperatures into the low 80s with the Piney
Woods/Brazos Valley region only getting into the mid-70s before
the front moves through. Now, a slower cold front would mean
warmer temperatures around the region, and a faster front would
cool afternoon high temperatures by a few degrees. Between
lingering cloudy skies and cooler air filtering in behind the
front, Sunday will see high temperatures in the upper 60s to low
70s across the region with overnight lows in the 50s. These
cooler (more seasonal) temperatures will continue through Tuesday
with high temperatures in the low to mid-70s and overnight lows in
the 50s. While Sunday will be be coolest day of the week, Monday
night will likely be the coolest night thanks to clearing skies
and light winds leading to portions of the Brazos Valley and Piney
Woods dropping into the upper 40s. A gradual warm up is expected
through the remainder of the week as onshore flow returns with
highs back into the upper 70s on Wednesday, then low 80s on
Thursday and Friday.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Showers are beginning to cease this evening with ground
observations suggesting that precip is very light and or
evaporating before reaching the ground. MVFR CIGS should fill in
across SE Texas this evening. Model guidance has backed down
slightly on IFR potential, though it would still be prudent to
plan for at least a brief period of IFR CIGs during the early
morning hours of Saturday. Showers should develop again over the
area Saturday morning with coverage growing ahead of an
approaching cold front. This front should reach the College
Station area earlier in the afternoon, then the Houston area late
in the afternoon before pushing off the coast in the evening.
Thunderstorms are anticipated ahead of and along the front, some
of which could become severe, producing damaging wind gusts and
low visibility from heavy rainfall. Light showers are expected to
linger in the wake of the cold front, mainly along and south of
the I-10 corridor.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Small craft should continue to exercise caution through Saturday
morning as onshore winds around 15kt with gusts to 20-25kt
continue and seas remain between 4-6ft. If the gusts become
frequent enough, a Small Craft Advisory may be needed late this
evening into early Saturday morning. A period of lower onshore
winds are expected Saturday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold
front. This front is expected to pass through the coastal waters
Saturday night into Sunday morning, bringing with it an increase
in showers and thunderstorms. Lingering moisture behind the front
may lead to continued scattered shower activity across the coastal
waters through Sunday. Moderate to strong north to northeasterly
winds are expected behind the front beginning late Saturday night
that persist through Sunday morning. Max sustained winds are
expected to be around 20-25kt with gusts to 30kt possible. Seas
are expected to build to 5-8ft by Sunday afternoon (with
occasional higher seas) and remain elevated through Monday morning
before slowly decreasing through the day. Light to moderate
easterly flow will continue through Wednesday, then onshore flow
returns through the second half of the week.

The persist, moderate at times, onshore flow has resulted in a
high risk of strong rip currents that will continue through at
least Saturday.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  70  77  54  68 /  30  80  40  10
Houston (IAH)  72  82  60  69 /  10  70  70  40
Galveston (GLS)  73  79  65  73 /  10  40  80  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Saturday afternoon
     for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Fowler

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion