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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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777
FXUS64 KHGX 092250
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
450 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm, and more humid weather is expected through the week.

- Chance of isolated to scattered showers Tuesday afternoon into
  Wednesday morning as a disturbance moves through.

- Areas of fog and sea fog during the nighttime and morning hours
  remain possible on a daily basis for much of the week. Higher
  than normal uncertainty in the fog forecast (see discussion
  below).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1050 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

CONUS-wide Water vapor imagery overlaid with the 500 MB RAP
analysis show a well defined split-flow pattern. The polar jet is
well north of the Lone Star State. Meanwhile, the subtropical jet
that`s draped across southern CONUS and northern Mexico is
somewhat broken up, thanks to the deep cut-off low centered over
the Baja Peninsula. This low is expected to push northeastward
towards our neck of the woods, but the system is likely to become
a less amplified trough as it does so. Therefore, the convective
side of this system (as evident on IR satellite over Far West
Texas and northern Mexico) is likely to become less convective as
the system`s synoptic ascent weakens. Global models are still
showing some vorticity being thrown our way Tuesday into
Wednesday. So the lift will not be zero, but certainly not what it
is now. At the surface, high pressure to our east will continue
providing moist onshore flow, resulting in warmer and more humid
than normal condition through much of the week. With ample LL
moisture coupled with the aforementioned vorticity, we will likely
have some scattered shower activity over parts of the region
Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. Perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm is not out of the question.

Let`s take moment to talk about fog. The pattern in place is
technically a decent set up for overnight and morning fog.
However, stronger winds in the boundary layer (15-20 knots ~1000
mb) have complicated the fog forecast, particularly over marine
areas. Last night, a subtle southwesterly 1000mb-900mb jet
occasionally mixed down and limited (though did not prevent) fog
development. For tonight, the jet will be more southerly but still
~15-20 knots (if HREF is to be believed). The southerly flow is
technically more favorable for fog than last night`s southwesterly
flow. But 15-20 knots in the boundary layer is on the strong side
for fog. I think the safe bet is to keep fog in the forecast,
especially since we still managed areas of dense fog this morning.
But unless the guidance is way off concerning those boundary
winds tonight, do not expect the extremely dense and widespread
fog we saw on Sunday morning. Winds aloft should decrease as the
weak progresses, suggesting an increasing fog threat as we
approach mid-week. For the coast, the fog threat later this week
will depend on how much water temps manage to warm.

Longer range data suggests another deep subtropical trough/low
over NW Mexico by week`s end that will push towards Texas over the
weekend. As the guidance currently stands, the system would remain
robust enough to bring a good chance of showers and thunderstorms
to the region. That being said, the guidance once looked more
optimistic for rainfall with the Tuesday-Wednesday system. So keep
that in mind when looking at the higher PoPs this weekend.

Regarding temperatures, we are expecting afternoon temps in the
mid 70s to low 80s (cooler at the coast) generally in the 60s.
Perhaps we can cool those temperatures down somewhat depending on
the weekend system. Also, a weak front may sneak into the area
Wednesday afternoon and evening, resulting in somewhat cooler
temperatures Wednesday night (maybe more 50s than 60s).

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 450 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR conditions and southerly winds in the 8-12 kt range will
prevail going into the evening hours. Like the previous nights,
fog potential and low cloud ceilings will be the main story for
this TAF period. The main window for fog potential will be from
08Z-15Z. Generally, the highest confidence for fog development
will be for terminals near and south of CXO. However, due to winds
just above the surface gradually increasing overnight into early
Tuesday morning, there is potential that there could be enough
mixing to limit visibility reductions. In contrast, model guidance
has been underperforming on the fog forecast the past couple of
nights, so opted to roll with persistence in this TAF package. Any
fog that develops will subside by 15Z-16Z. MVFR ceilings may
linger through 17Z-18Z before returning to VFR. Winds will be
gustier Tuesday as well with sustained winds around 10-15 kt and
gusts up to 20-25 kt through the afternoon. Another round of fog
and low ceilings is anticipated Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning.

Batiste/Ehlert/Hernandez

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1050 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

The primary concern this week will be the prospect of sea fog and
the higher than normal uncertainty in the fog forecast. Generally
light to moderate onshore flow will push high moisture levels
over chilly waters through the end of the week. This is normally a
very favorable setup for sea fog, especially at night and during
the morning hours. However, winds just above the surface have been
on the strong side (roughly 20 knots a few hundred feet above the
ground). Despite not being at the surface, these winds can lessen
the severity and areal extent of fog. Last night, those winds
aloft were from the southwest, a particularly unfavorable
direction for sea fog. Tonight, those winds aloft will be more
from the south, which is a more direction favorable relatively
speaking (southeast being the most preferred). So the direction
of the wind is expected to become more favorable, while wind
speeds aloft remain a little too strong. That being said, fog
could be more widespread if these winds manage to be a few knots
lower than forecast.

Model guidance is suggesting lighter winds aloft as we approach
the middle to later portion of the week, suggesting the sea fog
risk could rise. However, this will also depend on how much water
temperatures respond to the warm, sunny weather in the coming
days. That being said, our forecast continues to show a daily risk
of sea fog through the end of the week, with the best chance of
fog occurring during the overnight and morning hours.

A system by the end of the week could bring a chance of showers
and thunderstorms, along with increasing winds and seas.
Confidence in the forecast that far out is low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  60  79  60  76 /   0   0  20  10
Houston (IAH)  62  78  61  79 /   0   0  20  20
Galveston (GLS)  60  71  59  72 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion