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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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259
FXUS64 KHGX 030524
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1224 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily chances of scattered showers and isolated
  thunderstorms with the greatest chances late Saturday into
  Sunday as a cold front moves into/through the area.

- Unseasonably warm weather persists through Saturday, then the
  cold front ushers in cooler, more seasonal temperatures by
  Sunday and extending into early next week.

- Risk of moderate to strong rip currents today into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Mostly tranquil conditions are expected tonight with cloudy skies
and southeast winds at 7-10 mph. The overnight lows will be in
the upper 60s over the Piney Woods region and the lower 70s for
the rest of Southeast TX. Winds should be strong enough to limit
fog development for most of the region.

Friday will start off cloudy, but we might see some breaks in the
clouds during the afternoon hours before becoming cloudy again
later in the evening. The highs will be a few degrees warmer,
generally in the lower to mid 80s inland and the upper 70s to
lower 80s over the coastal locations. There could be some isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the day, mainly for
areas near and east of I-45 as well as the coasts. It is expected
to be breezy again with southeast winds ranging between 12-20 mph
with gusts of around 25 mph on occasion.

We will begin to see some showers and thunderstorms moving into
the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region Friday night as an upper
level trough moves through the Plains and a cold front pushes
across central TX. Activity is to increase and expand southward
during the overnight hours and Saturday morning as the front
approaches Southeast TX. Additional shower and thunderstorm
development is expected ahead and along the front, which is
progged to move across our region from the afternoon to early
night hours. Some of the thunderstorms could become strong to
severe and SPC has placed most of Southeast TX in a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5). The primary hazards at this time are damaging
winds and hail, although the chance for a tornado cannot be ruled
out. Make sure to have multiple ways of receiving weather updates
and warnings.

The front is expected to push into the Gulf waters near midnight,
however, rain chances could continue into the overnight hours
possibly due to isentropic lifting. We will start to feel those
cooler temperatures Saturday night with lows in the lower 50s to
lower 60s. Very pleasant temperatures are expected on Sunday with
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s areawide. Additional isolated
to scattered rain chances are possible Sunday into Monday morning
as a weak shortwave moves across TX. The best chances for rain on
Sunday through Monday morning are focused over areas near and
south of I-10 and the Gulf waters. Drier conditions will a
gradual warming trend are expected Monday afternoon through the
mid-week period.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 552 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Convective activity has dissipated, but gusty southeasterly winds
will persist through the evening. MVFR ceilings will begin filling
in from the south near or just after sunset from south to north
and encompass all of Southeast TX by 06Z/Friday. Winds remain
elevated overnight, so the potential for fog is slim to none.
There is potential for intermittent periods of IFR ceilings
especially south of I-10 early Friday morning. Reduced ceilings
last into the late morning/early afternoon hours before lifting to
VFR as southeasterly winds pick up once again with gusts near 25
kt through the afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers are
expected to develop around 15Z/Friday...the greatest confidence is
south of I-10 and along/east of the I-45 corridor. The coverage
looks to be rather sporadic though, so this has been covered with
PROB30`s for now. Look for another round of IFR/MVFR ceilings
Friday evening.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Caution flags for the bays and Gulf waters are in effect through
Friday morning. Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds are
expected to prevail through Saturday. Chance for showers and
thunderstorm are expected Friday. Higher rain chances are expected
Saturday into Sunday as a cold front moves through the region.
The front is progged to move into the waters Saturday night into
Sunday morning, however, rain chances could continue into Monday
morning as another disturbance pushes through. Strong northeast
winds and elevated seas will develop in the wake of the front on
Sunday morning. Winds could remain under Small Craft Criteria
through Monday. Expect Small Craft Advisories Sunday into Monday.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  70  78  53  68 /  20  90  40  20
Houston (IAH)  72  83  60  70 /  10  80  70  30
Galveston (GLS)  73  79  65  73 /  10  70  80  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT this morning
     for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cotto
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion