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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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702
FXUS64 KHGX 121836
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
136 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm weather expected throughout the work week.

- Persistent southeasterly flow will lead to a steady climb in
  humidity, temperatures and cloud cover (mainly overnight),
  eventually for some spotty/isolated, diurnally-driven
  showers/storms trough the weekend. Best rain and storm chances
  arrive next Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Fair weather remains the primary story for Southeast TX as a mid-
level ridge centered over the Southern Rockies continues to
dominate the regional pattern. Latest water vapor satellite
imagery shows a drier airmass filtering into the area; however
enough low-level moisture remains, with surface dewpoints in the
60s and low 70s to support a field of scattered fair wx Cumulus
clouds this afternoon. Calm to light surface winds and residual
low-level moisture will be enough to produce some fog (mainly low-
lying fog) overnight into early Wednesday morning. Latest model
runs show medium probabilities (30 - 50 %) of visibility as low as
5 miles for our southwestern counties.

Expect the trend of dry, warm days with temperatures slightly
above normal to persist through the rest of the work-week.

The synoptic setup begins to shift late Wednesday into Thursday
as the surface high slides eastward. This transition will
establish a more persistent and deepened south to southeasterly
flow, opening the door for a steady influx of Gulf moisture.
Therefore, expect a gradual climb in afternoon highs, humidity
levels and overnight cloud cover through the weekend.

By the weekend, the ridge is forecast to weaken and migrate
further east, breaking down the subsidence that has kept us dry.
The weekend is progged to remain relatively dry; however, this
shifting pattern combined with warm conditions, increasing PWs and
weak disturbances moving through the flow aloft, could lead to a
few daily spotty/isolated activity.

Looking ahead to early next week, rain and storm chances will be
on the increase (30 to 60%) as a stronger upper-lvl disturbance
moves through.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions throughout the TAF period. Light VRB winds this
morning, becoming NE at 4-8 KTS by 15Z, then back to light and
VRB tonight through early Wed morning.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Benign weather conditions with light winds and low seas are
expected at least through late Thursday as high pressure system
remains over the region. Typical summer pattern is anticipated
with southeast winds due to seabreeze in the late afternoon/early
evening and offshore winds by the landbreeze overnight/early
mornings. A tighter pressure gradient will lead to moderate winds
and building seas Friday into the weekend. Next best rain chances
return early next week.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  82  63  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  85  67  89  69 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  82  72  84  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion