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593
FXUS64 KHGX 091716
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1216 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe storms and heavy rains possible this afternoon
  with a lull in rain chances tonight through Sunday morning.

- Cold front pushes through SE Texas Sunday evening through early
  Monday morning. Severe storms possible, especially along the
  front.

- High pressure and calmer weather throughout much of the upcoming
  work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Several showers and storms are ongoing over the Gulf this afternoon,
tracking with the passing shortwave moving over the area. Any
additional convection should track eastward with this shortwave
trough, resulting in rain chances decreasing from west to east later
this evening. However, there is still some modest instability
present, broadly higher inland and lower closer to the coast/over
the gulf waters. The apex of bulk shear is progged to trail behind
the main region of lift, but there`s still a modest 25-40 knots that
will overlap with some of our convection this afternoon. SPC
maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of Severe Storms this
afternoon with damaging winds and large hail being the primary
concerns. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible too in some
of these storms too. Severe threat is isolated, and convection
overall is looking fairly sparse inland, though that may change as
skies are beginning to scatter out.

Should see a lull in rains tonight into portions of Sunday as the
shortwave aloft continues east. Onshore flow should be back in
place, but still only for a brief time, as a cold front should push
into SE Texas late Sunday night. A positive tilt midlevel shortwave
trough will also be moving over the northern half of the state at
this time, helping supply additional lift with the FROPA. In
addition, a small area of diffluence also appears to form in the
upper levels between the shortwave trough and the subtropical jet,
around portions of central/eastern Texas, which may further
enhance lift. Instability looks broadly better across the board,
some areas progged to get around 2000-3000 ML CAPE with even
higher values of MU CAPE possible. Midlevel lapse rates are still
generally favorable too, around 7-7.8 J/KG early in the evening
with TEI values near 26. Bulk shear near 35 knots, cloud layer
shear around 80 knots, and modest DCAPE ~900 J/KG will also be
present as well. CAP weakens in the afternoon, so some convection
ahead of the front will be possible, though the main bulk of
storms should come in the late evening as the front pushes into
the Brazos Valley and eventually off the coast by Monday morning.

SPC has our northern tier of counties under a Slight Risk (level
2/5) of Severe Weather for Sunday/early Monday morning with a
Marginal Risk (level 1/5) extending southward past the I-10
corridor. Damaging winds and hail remain the primary hazards with
these storms. The severe weather threat begins Sunday afternoon
with a few isolated pop-up storms possible, then reaches it`s
apex during the evening hours as the front pushes into the Brazos
Valley. After midnight, the chances of severe weather should be
declining as the front pushes south, fully coming to an end later
in the morning on Monday as storms push out of the area.

Monday should see breezy, cooler and drier weather as high pressure
fills over the area in the wake of the cold front. A mid to upper
level ridge will also build across the Four Corners region, ushering
in a period of benign weather through the next several days. This
ridge aloft should shift easterly, along with surface high pressure,
allowing onshore winds to return around Tuesday night. This will
allow moisture to rebuild as temperatures rise through mid week.
Highs should be in the upper 70s/80s (isolated 90s possible) with
lows in the 60s/70s. Around Thursday, the ridge aloft will weaken
slightly as vorticity impulses & a shortwave trough push in from the
Great Basin. The ridge itself will also shift east of the area on
Friday, weakening it`s influence over the area. Still, onshore flow
and warm wx should remain in place with slim rain chances through
the end of the work week.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Mix of LIFR to MVFR conditions for much of SE Texas this morning
due to lower cigs and areas of patchy to dense fog reducing vis.
Fog will burn off and cigs will gradually lift after 15Z,
scattering out in the afternoon. IAH and sites northward could
see some iso showers for the rest of the morning, although
impacts should be minimal. A larger area of showers is currently
moving into the Matagorda Bay region and could affect sites in and
south of HOU through the mid morning hours. Another round of
showers and storms are possible during the late afternoon to early
evening hours.

Winds will remain light and variable for much of the day, becoming
SE at 5-10 KTS later in the afternoon. Model guidance is
suggesting MVFR cigs returning during the overnight to early Sun
morning hours, along with areas of patchy fog.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Showers and thunderstorms continue over the Gulf waters this
afternoon. Cannot rule out some additional storms developing near or
over the coastline this afternoon either. These thunderstorms could
produce higher winds, seas and lower visibility from heavier
rainfall. Anticipate a lull rainfall this evening through Sunday
afternoon. A cold front should push off the coast late Sunday
night through early Monday morning, bringing another round of
showers and storms across the bays and waters. Light to moderate
northeast winds are expected after the front, shifting
southeasterly Tuesday night.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  69  86  67  79 /   0   0  80  10
Houston (IAH)  72  88  71  83 /   0  10  70  10
Galveston (GLS)  76  83  74  84 /   0   0  50  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion