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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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949
FXUS64 KHGX 051756
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1256 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, TROPICAL...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation chances transition to the coastal waters through
  midweek as some drier air filters in to inland portions of the
  region.

- Rain chances return during the second half of the week, mainly
  across southern parts of Southeast Texas, as a coastal trough
  becomes re-established offshore.

- Hazardous marine conditions (winds/seas) are expected today and
  this evening, and then again later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

The frontal boundary (along with any rain chances)remains well
offshore this afternoon. The result of a drier airmass can be seen
on GOES satellite imagery, with much of SE Texas experiencing partly
cloudy to sunny skies. Locations along the coast are in closer
proximity to the offshore boundary and a coastal trough, so they
remain socked in with broken to overcast skies. A few showers and an
isolated storm may find their way to the coast with the afternoon
sea breeze. Expect this trend to continue through the next couple of
days.

By mid week, high pressure will lift further NE, and a mid-level
trough will develop across northern Mexico and West Texas. Closer to
the coast we will see an increase in moisture as the frontal zone
and coastal trough drift northward. This will result in an uptick in
rain chances for locations south of the I-10 corridor and along the
coast.

Bailey

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

VFR conditions prevail across the majority of the area as the
afternoon progresses. Coastal terminal are anticipated to gain VFR
CIGs in the evening as coastal moisture continues to move off shore.
NE winds up to 10kts with occasional gusts to 20kts continue into
the evening. Winds relax during the night with a shift to a more NNE
heading. Tomorrow afternoon winds pick back up to the NE and the VFR
conditions persist.

CMW

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Cool front remains offshore this afternoon with moderate to strong
NE winds and elevated seas continuing into the evening hours.
Periods of rain will continue along the coast and offshore into
Tuesday...more so in the Gulf waters. Winds and seas will slightly
diminish toward midweek, but increase once again during the
second half of the work week as a coastal trough and unsettled
weather across the western Gulf tracks back northward toward the
coast.

Bailey

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

A trough of low pressure over the SW Gulf of America is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Currently, there is
around 80% chance of development. Wind shear appears like it
could be fairly strong across northwest parts of the Gulf coast
later this week, and any development that occurs is expected to
track north and east away from SE Texas, but let`s keep an eye on
things. Climatologically speaking, the southern, east central,
and eastern portions of the Gulf tend to be more prone to seeing
tropical systems in the month of October. Regardless of any
tropical development...winds, seas and rain chances will increase
in the local marine environment during the second half of the week
with a coastal trough in place.

Bailey/47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  84  66  86  65 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  86  72  90  72 /  20   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  86  77  87  78 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330-
     335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ350-355-
     370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...CMW
MARINE...Bailey

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion