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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

258
FXUS64 KHGX 220443
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1143 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions expected through early next week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible during the second
  half of the week.

- Potential change to a wetter pattern by the end of the month.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

The tranquil weather pattern over the area continues as a ridge
axis situated over the High Plains remains firmly planted in
place. The "name of the game" tomorrow remains persistence as
temperatures reach in the low-mid 80`s for highs and back down
into the high 50`s to low 60`s for overnight lows tomorrow. The
outside feel is anticipated to become less "sticky" as surface
moisture decreases a little more and dewpoints dip into the 50`s.
Situation awareness should continue on Thursday and Friday for an
increased fire risk due to the decreasing RH values to around
25-30%. The winds remaining continually light can keep us out of
Red Flag territory.

As we end the work week and move into the upcoming weekend, the
combination of the dry air and continual ridging will result in
little to no rain chances. Daytime highs will also remain in the
low to mid 80`s inland and the upper 70s to low 80s along the
coasts. Overnight lows remain seasonal, between the mid 50`s and
low 60`s inland while slightly warmer along the coast tipping into
the upper 80s to low 70`s. In addition, a weak upper-level jet
max entering the region from the Rio Grande Valley will slightly
increase surface winds on Saturday and Sunday. Even with the
increasing upper-level dynamics, the minimal PWAT values keep
chances of precip low.

The good news is that we might start seeing increasing PWATs by
early next week. This is the start of showing early signals of a
potential pattern change, which may bring rain chances into the
area.

CMW/Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

VFR conditions along with light E winds expected throughout the
TAF period. Winds will likely be VRB during the overnight to early
morning hours.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Light to occasionally moderate easterly winds and seas of 2 to 3
feet will persist through Friday. Winds will strengthen to 15-20
knots during the weekend and seas will build to 3 to 5 feet,
possibly up to 6 feet at times over the offshore waters. Caution
Flags or Small Craft Advisories may be needed Saturday into
Monday. The moderate easterly flow will continue for much of the
upcoming week, additional Caution Flags may be needed at times.

Mostly dry weather conditions are expected through the weekend.
The return of showers and thunderstorms may occur early next week
as moisture from the Gulf returns to the local area.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  56  85  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  58  85  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  67  77  65  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CMW/Cotto
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion