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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

376
FXUS64 KHGX 212323
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
623 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory remains in effect. Hot conditions will persist
  through next week.

- Scattered storms are possible late this afternoon and this
  evening across the Piney Woods region. Gusty winds are possible
  in the stronger cells.

- Cannot rule out some isolated showers/storms on Saturday, but
  most of us will likely remain dry and hot.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Satellite imagery shows some weak shortwaves over SE OK sagging
southward early this afternoon. With temps climbing to around 100F
in advance, guidance still indicates the potential for scattered
storm development late in the day and this evening up around the
Piney Woods area that we`ll need to keep an eye on. Any stronger
cells will have the capability producing some 25-50mph wind
gusts. Vast majority of models keep this precip across NE parts of
our CWA before dissipating later tonight, however it`s certainly
not unheard of that these storms tend to overperform in these
patterns so I plan to maintain the mention of at least lowish POPs
much further south and east until trends can be established.

Another set of weak disturbances is fcst to take a similar track
down the periphery of the ridge late in the day Saturday &
Saturday evening...so am keeping some lower end rain chances in
the fcst.

Otherwise, ridging & heat will continue to be the primary wx story
well into next week. Highs in the triple digits are anticipated
thru much of the work week. In terms of the Heat Advisory, I`m
going to leave it as-is thru Saturday for now and let future
shifts reevaluate things on a day-to-day basis in terms of any
extensions or potential reconfigurations. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Winds remain southerly as the evening hrs progress before becoming
VRB around 3-5kts during the overnight. KUTS and areas to the E
still remain the most likely areas to see any convective
development as the boundary sits over the TX/LA border. Again, the
sunrise timeframe has the chance to bring MVFR CIG and BR around
KCXO and KLBX. Winds begin to pickup and shift to SSW in the late
morning on Saturday. As the winds decrease in the evening around
22z the winds shift to SSE.

CMW

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Thunderstorms are expected north and east of the region this
evening. These storms are not anticipated to make it into our
waters, but are worth watching. Otherwise, light to occasionally
moderate southwest and south winds and 2 to 3 foot seas are
expected over the next several days. Winds may occasionally gust
up to 20 knots during the afternoon in the bays, and during the
overnight hours in the Gulf.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  78 103  78 102 /  20  20  20  10
Houston (IAH)  81 102  80 101 /  20  20  20  10
Galveston (GLS)  83  92  83  92 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...CMW
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion