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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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664
FXUS64 KHGX 170502
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1202 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and humid through the end of the week with only a few/spotty
  showers.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to
  develop along a cold front Saturday afternoon and evening.
  Localized downpours will be possible, which could result in
  instances of minor flooding in urban, low-lying and poor
  drainage areas.

- Seasonal conditions expected in the wake of the front going into
  early next week.

- Hazardous Marine Conditions: Moderate to strong northeasterly
  winds and building seas are expected Saturday night through
  Sunday evening following the passage of the cold front. Gusts to
  gale will be possible.

- There will be a moderate to high risk of strong rip currents
  along all Gulf- facing beaches through at least the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

More of the same is expected through Friday with continued warm
and humid conditions thanks to southerly flow at the surface and
southwesterly flow aloft. There will be bit of a tightening of the
pressure gradient over us on Friday as we get sandwiched between
high pressure over the eastern Gulf and a low pressure system
exiting into the Central Plains to our northwest. This will lead
to some gustier winds during the afternoon and evening hours, with
gusts to 20-25mph possible. High temperatures continue to be in
the mid to upper 80s for most of the region on Friday with
overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s Friday night.

The aforementioned low pressure system moving into the Central
Plains on Friday will continue to push eastward on Saturday with
its associated cold front moving through SE Texas Saturday
afternoon/evening. We may begin to see light streamer showers as
early as Saturday morning, but then expecting scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening ahead of
an along the cold front. Moisture is expected to surge to around
1.7-1.9" ahead of the cold front, so localized downpours will be
possible with any thunderstorms that develop. Minor urban and
small stream flooding may occur if these thunderstorms develop
over an area of poor drainage. WPC maintains a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 4) for areas along and north of I-10. Lingering
moisture behind the front may lead to isolated showers sticking
around the coast into Sunday morning. The FROPA will also usher
in breezy northerly winds (gusts to 20-25mph in land, up to 30mph
at the coast) Saturday night into Sunday afternoon.

Cooler weather is expected Sunday through Monday with daytime highs
in the low 70s and overnight lows in the 50s. Southerly flow
returns by Monday night leading to a gradual increase in
temperatures through the remainder of the week: highs in the mid
to upper 70s on Tuesday, low 80s on Wednesday, and possibly
mid-80s by next Thursday.

Rain chances do return late Monday into Tuesday, and again
Wednesday into Thursday, as a series weak disturbance moves across
the Southern Plains into the Gulf Coast.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Another rinse and repeat forecast for this package. Southerly
winds around 8-12kt will persist through the evening, then
decrease to 5-8kt overnight inland and then remain near 10kt at
the coast. MVFR conditions will return to the region between 5-7z
with CIGs down to around 1500ft (and some scattered lower clouds
possible). These conditions will persist through 15-17z on Friday
when the CIGs scatter out giving way to VFR conditions that will
continue through the day. The southerly wind are expected to
increase back to around 10-15kt during the mid-morning, and then
wind gusts to 20-25kt will develop during the late morning hours
and continue through the evening. The gusts will diminish through
the evening, and then the return to MVFR conditions is likely
again Friday night into Saturday morning.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Small craft should continue to exercise caution as moderate
south-southeasterly winds (15-20kt) and 3-5ft seas persist through
Friday night. A tightening pressure gradient across the region may
lead to gusts to 25kt Friday afternoon/evening, and if these gusts
are frequent enough then a Small Craft Advisory may be issued.

A decrease in the winds is expected Saturday morning ahead of an
approaching cold front. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be possible ahead of and along the cold front`s
passage. It is expected to push through the coastal waters
Saturday evening into Saturday night ushering in strong north to
northeasterly winds that will persist into late Sunday. Sustained
winds of 20-30kt are expected with gusts to 35kt possible, which
will lead to building seas of 7-10ft seas. Small Craft Advisories
will be likely Saturday night into Sunday evening, but a Gale
conditions cannot be ruled out. Winds gradually lower and veer
through Monday with southeasterly flow expected by Monday night.

The persistent onshore winds will lead to increased wave run-up
and elevated tides through Saturday (high tides running around
3-3.3ft above MLLW). There will also be a moderate to high risk of
strong rip currents along Gulf-facing beaches.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  68  87  68  78 /   0   0   0  60
Houston (IAH)  70  85  71  85 /   0   0   0  60
Galveston (GLS)  73  79  73  80 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Friday evening for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Fowler

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion