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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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203
FXUS64 KHGX 171104
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
604 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly above average summertime heat (upper 90s/lower 100s)
  will persist through most of the rest of the month across
  Southeast Texas. The potential for Heat Advisory issuance
  remains elevated as a result.

- Without adequate precautions outdoors, cumulative impacts of
  heat and heat stress will remain a significant risk factor to
  health (especially for heat-sensitive populations).

- Rain chances remain near zero for most of the week, but slight
  chances of rain return to the forecast going into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

There`s only so many ways to say that it`s hot over and over, so I`m
going to consult my handy dandy thesaurus for a new word to keep
things fresh! Let`s see...boiling no....scorching is a good one but
we can find a better one...sweltering! That`s the one! The
sweltering conditions will persist throughout the week, but if you
were outside on Sunday you may have noticed that it felt different
compared to previous days. A pocket of dry air (PW values below the
10th percentile) pushed in late Saturday and lingered throughout the
day on Sunday. So, we had a dry heat versus our typical humid heat.
Most of Monday will continue to feature drier air, but low-level
moisture will be gradually increasing in the afternoon hours. That
means that the dry air will linger overnight into Monday morning, so
low temperatures will be mostly in the low 70s once again. It`s not
often we get below normal low temperatures in August, so it`s worth
the mention. Unfortunately though we`ll be back to low temperatures
only bottoming out in the mid 70s to low 80s through the rest of the
week.

A 598 dam mid-level high remains directly overhead overnight and
will prevail through the middle of the week. As a result, rain
chances will remain slim to none throughout most of the work
week...especially with another pocket of drier air (PW`s less than
the 25th percentile: ~1.55") moving in on Wednesday/Thursday.
Outside of the heat, the only thing going on weatherwise is patchy
fog. Patchy fog potential will persist for at least the next few
mornings especially for areas west of I-45.

With the mid-level high remaining overhead through at least midweek,
expect temperatures to gradually climb. High temperatures will at
least flirt with the triple digits for areas along and north of I-10
for most of the week. Dew points are still expected to mix out into
the upper 60s/low 70s during the afternoons, which should keep heat
indices just below the heat advisory threshold for at least the
early part of the work week. Even if a heat advisory is not in
effect, it will still be dangerously hot especially for those
outdoors for extended periods of time. As we talked about before,
low temperatures for the rest of the week will be mainly in the
upper 70s to low 80s, so there won`t be much relief from the heat.

Now the number one question we get during a hot and dry stretch is
when will summer end...the answer is November. The second question
we typically get is when is it going to rain again...the answer for
most of us is not in the foreseeable future. For a few of you, the
answer is late in the work week and over the weekend. After midweek,
the mid-level high slides westward towards the Four Corners region
which places us in northwest flow aloft. An upper level trough is
expected to slide through the Mississippi River Valley going into
the weekend with an associated frontal boundary. Now the front is
not going to make it here, but it likely will serve as an initiation
point for convection to develop and push southward. As a result,
chances for showers/storms return to the forecast late in the work
week and going into the weekend...not all of us will see this rain
though.

Took a look at the beyond the future outlook and it looks like more
of same for the rest of the month. CPC`s 6-10 day and 8-14 day
outlooks favor above normal temperatures and below normal
precipitation. Great...

With sweltering conditions persisting over the next several days,
please continue to keep heat safety at the top of your minds for any
plans that you make (especially if outdoors). Know the signs of heat-
related illnesses, stay hydrated (with water), take frequent breaks
from the heat, wear loose/light-colored clothing and sunscreen, and
ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS LOOK before you LOCK your vehicle. Don`t forget
about your pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of
your hand, then it is too hot for their paws.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 512 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Isolated patchy fog will clear after sunrise, giving way to VFR
conditions. Winds increase and shift southeasterly in the
afternoon, then diminish once again in the evening and overnight.
Another round of patchy fog and isolated MVFR CIGS could develop
early Tuesday morning.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

A period of benign marine conditions continues with light to
occasionally moderate southerly/southwesterly winds and 2-3 ft seas
prevailing over the next several days.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 100  76 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH) 100  78 100  80 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  90  83  91  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion