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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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424
FXUS64 KHGX 061136
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
536 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm weather will continue into Saturday.

- Increased shower & thunderstorm chances this weekend as a front
  stalls in the area.

- Sea fog will remain an intermittent issue near the southern
  Galveston Bay area and adjacent Gulf waters for the next several
  days.

- Another round of storm chances around the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1212 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The current weather pattern we`re in is more typical for late
April/early May as we had yet another day of high temperatures in
the low to mid 80s and low temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s.
These above normal temperatures will continue into Friday along with
some chances for isolated to scattered rain showers throughout the
day. Sea fog continues to be an intermittent issue in the southern
part of Galveston Bay and the adjacent coastal Gulf waters during
the late afternoon to early morning hours. Southeasterly winds will
be on the rise overnight though, which hypothetically should inhibit
the extent of the fog...but the fog tends to have a mind of its own
most of the time. Nevertheless, another round of patchy sea fog is
expected Friday night into Saturday morning...but less so on
Saturday night as chances for showers and storms will be on the
rise. Before we discuss the front though, I just wanted to add onto
the stats that we talked about yesterday. Thursday, March 5th, made
it day 9 in a row for the City of Houston seeing a high temperature
of 80F or greater. We are definitely making it to double digits
with highs in the low to mid 80s expected going into Saturday. Low
temperatures will continue to range in the upper 60s to low 70s,
which is actually what our normal high temperatures are for this
time of the year.

The temperature forecast becomes a little bit complex over the
weekend though as we have a frontal boundary that will stall out
"somewhere" over Southeast TX. Friday deserves a brief mention even
though the CAMs (I suppose that includes me as well) aren`t too
excited with the storm potential. A 35-45 kt LLJ develops by Friday
morning and overlaps with PW values near or above the 90th
percentile (~1.39"), which brings the initial start of some sporadic
rain showers...we can actually coin this as scattered nonsense.
Speaking of that LLJ, winds on Friday will be quite gusty
especially west of I-45. This area is very borderline for a Wind
Advisory. Winds may gust up to 30-35 mph at times through the
afternoon.

A dry line will still be situated to our west, which may serve as an
initiating point for storms later in the afternoon. Again, the CAMs
show nothing more than spotty showers in our area throughout the
day. If a storm defies the odds and manages to get going though,
then it does carry the potential to become strong to severe. SPC has
areas north of a Columbus-Conroe-Livingston line outlined in a
marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather on Friday. The severe
potential increases going into Saturday.

Going into Friday night, an approaching frontal boundary overtakes
the dry line and this is where the synoptic flow becomes very
important. The northern portion of the upper level trough continues
on a northeastward trajectory towards the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a
cutoff low develops and drifts southwestward towards the Baja
Peninsula where it`ll remain over the weekend (put a pin in this for
now). This leaves the front with not much synoptic forcing to push
it cleanly through. As a result, the front is expected to stall out
"somewhere" over Southeast TX...model guidance varies on how far
southward the front makes it before it stalls out on Saturday. It
may make it near the coast or it may stall out north of I-10
depending on which model guidance you believe. Wherever this front
stalls out at though will be the main area of focus for the heavy
rainfall potential.

With PW values well above the 90th percentile as well, some of this
rainfall will be locally heavy at times which could lead to
localized instances of street flooding. Chances for heavy rain stick
around into Sunday till the frontal boundary pushes back northward,
but the bulk of the rain looks to fall on Saturday night. WPC has
most of Southeast TX outlined in a slight risk (level 2 of 4) of
excessive rainfall for Saturday and all of Southeast TX in a
marginal risk (level 1 of 4) on Sunday. See the HYDROLOGY section
below for further discussion on rainfall rates and the implications
of the preceding drought conditions. As the front pushes in on
Saturday afternoon/evening, there is potential for some storms to
become strong to severe and carry the potential for damaging winds
and hail. As a result, most of Southeast TX is outline in a slight
risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather on Saturday.

Going into the middle of next week, the previously mentioned upper
level low will make its way eastward through the state leading to
another round of showers and storms ahead of and along the
associated frontal boundary. This looks to generally be in the
Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe. However, the GFS is trending slower
on the progression of the upper level low, which means the heavy
rain potential sticks around later into the work week. You can
imagine what that would do for rainfall totals. For now, we`ll
continue to monitor trends, so be sure to stay up to date on the
forecast. I know that Spring Break is next week for a lot of you,
but be sure to keep an eye on the forecast for updates as there is
potential for another round of strong to severe storms and heavy
rain around midweek.

Once the upper level low and the associated front push past us
though, model guidance continues to trend towards a bit more
seasonal temperatures...so we have that to look forward to! Until
then though, high temperatures will remain mainly in the 80s with
lows in the 60s/70s.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 516 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Ceilings will be a repeat of yesterday with high end IFR to low
end MVFR CIGs (between 900-1200ft) will continue through around
14-15z, with improvements to high end MVFR to VFR conditions
expected by the late morning to early afternoon. The one exception
will be GLS where MVFR CIGs will continue through the day. GLS
will also be dealing with patchy sea fog lowering visibility to
1-4mi through the morning as well. A return to MVFR conditions
area-wide will occur between 00-03z with CIGs to around 2000ft,
and then to IFR by 03-06z with CIGs down to around 700ft that will
continue into Saturday morning.

Southeasterly winds around 10-15kt with gusts to 20-25kt are
expected this afternoon with the gusts diminishing after sunset,
but the southeasterly winds will likely remain near 10kt through
the night.

Some isolated light showers will be possible through today with a
slight chance of isolated thunderstorms in the Piney Woods region
this evening into tonight. Chances and coverage will be too low
at terminals south of UTS to include in the TAFs, but do have a
PROB30 of -TSRA at UTS and CLL tonight. Chance of widespread
showers and thunderstorms will increase after 18z Saturday as a
cold front moves into and then stalls across SE Texas.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1212 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Once again sea fog began to push into the southern portion of
Galveston Bay late Thursday afternoon. As a result, another Marine
Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through Friday morning for
Galveston Bay and the adjacent nearshore Gulf waters. Southeasterly
winds will be on the rise overnight though, which could inhibit the
fog from remaining dense. Chances for fog continues over the next
couple of days during the overnight to morning hours. However,
elevated winds during the overnight hours could inhibit the extent
of the fog.

Outside of the fog, an elongated fetch of light to moderate
southeasterly winds will continue through the end of the week
leading to gradually increasing seas. Winds may approach the
caution flag threshold at times. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms return over the weekend and around the middle of
next week.

Batiste

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1212 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Now that we have the combination of a slight risk (level 2 of 4) of
excessive rainfall over the weekend combined with the vast majority
of Southeast TX (~90%) in a severe to extreme drought, I figured
it`d be a good time to have a hydrologic focused discussion. It`s
still a bit too early to lock in on specific rainfall totals
especially since uncertainty remains on exactly where the frontal
boundary will stall out at...but we can discuss the environment
ahead of this event and how high rainfall rates may interact with
the dry soils. As y`all are aware, the vast majority of us have
not seen notable (or any) rain since February 14th which is
coming up on 3 weeks ago. ~90% of the region is in a severe to
extreme drought...~26% of the region is in an extreme drought
(mostly west of the Brazos River and Liberty County). PW values
are anticipated to be at or above the 90th percentile for both
this weekend`s rainfall event and for the next round around the
middle of next week, so locally heavy rainfall is definitely on
the table.

Dry soils aren`t able to absorb rainfall efficiently leading to a
quicker transition to runoff. Rainfall rates of 2-3" per hour
combined with these dry soils could lead to instances of localized
flooding, so we`ll be monitoring where these heavier rains fall
which will likely be along the stalled frontal boundary. We`ll
also be monitoring downstream flows from Wednesday`s heavy rain
event near Dallas in which most of the rainfall fell into the
Trinity River basin. From what we`ve seen so far though from the
upstream flows, Lake Livingston should be able to manage this
influx. Another round of heavy rain is expected around the middle
of next week as well, so we`re entering into a more active period.
As far as rivers go, we may see some instances of action to minor
stage flooding especially along the Trinity River basin. That`s
just something to keep in mind as we head into the
weekend/midweek!

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  86  70  83  60 /  30  50  90  80
Houston (IAH)  84  72  85  68 /  40  30  80  70
Galveston (GLS)  76  68  75  67 /  20  10  60  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ335-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion