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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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778
FXUS64 KHGX 062331
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
631 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered seabreeze showers and thunderstorms expected on a
  daily basis into early next week.

- Seasonably hot with highs in the 90s and heat index values
  101-108F each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Light SSW winds, warm temps, and dewpoints in the upper 70s to
around 80 will probably produce some heat index readings around,
or slightly above, 108F this afternoon. Due to the short nature,
the plan for now is to forgo a head advsy...but typical summertime
heat precautions should still be considered.

Otherwise, we`re seeing some higher PW air, compared to the
previous several days, track into the region from the east &
southeast. Once we get some more daytime heating and a
seabreeze/baybreeze to generate we should see some sct shra/tstms
develop across parts of the region.

Pretty much a rinse/repeat scenario through the weekend into early
next week with the synoptic pattern remaining about the same
(ridging over the Four Corners into wcntl Tx, more ridging in the
Atlantic, and troffiness/weakness in between). Fluctuations on PW
values should generally drive POPs and overall coverage each day.
Deterministic guidance isn`t in the best of agreement in terms of
the finest details in those regards...but the southern 2/3 of the
CWA will probably see the overall better chances. POPs may need to
be nudged upwards some Sun-Mon if ECMWF ends up being the
deterministic model of choice.

With more cloudiness and a prevailing SE llvl flow, we`ll
probably see highs a few degrees lower than previous days. But
they should trend back up toward the middle part of next week as
Atlantic ridging begins expanding westward across the NE/Ncntl
Gulf. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Isolated showers/thunderstorms lingering around SE TX airports
will gradually dissipate this evening. Winds will be S-SE at
around 5-10 KTS and then relax to 5 KTS or less after 03Z. There`s
the potential for MVFR cigs and reduced vis due to areas of
patchy fog over portions of the CWA, mainly from 10-14Z timeframe.
Cigs will lift and scatter out during the mid morning hours and
fog (if any) will burn off quickly shortly after sunrise. Mostly
VFR conditions expected Fri with iso-sct showers and storms
developing in the afternoon, in particular near/over HOU, IAH,
SGR, CXO. In areas of storms, expect MVFR conditions along with
lightning and VRB winds of around 15 KTS with gusts around 25 KTS.
Stronger winds are possible with outflow boundaries from stronger
storms. Storms will gradually dissipate Fri evening as diurnal
heating decreases.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Typical summertime conditions expected through the weekend into
early next week. South and southeast winds, generally in the 10-15
knot range and 2-4 foot seas are expected. Look for some scattered
shower and thunderstorm development each day...with the better
chances in the early morning through early afternoon hours.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  95  75  95 /  20  20   0  20
Houston (IAH)  79  95  78  94 /  10  30   0  30
Galveston (GLS)  83  90  82  90 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion