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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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510
FXUS64 KHGX 120422
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1122 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazardous marine conditions are expected through the night and
  into Thursday morning. A Gale Warning is in effect on coastal
  Gulf waters, and a small craft advisory on area bays.

- Breezy conditions will also be seen near the coast, and a wind
  advisory is also in place for all islands and peninsulas beyond
  the intracoastal waterway, as well as across Jackson, Wharton,
  and Matagorda Counties. These strong north winds may pose a
  hazard to high profile vehicles traveling east-west, and blow
  about light, unsecured outdoor objects.

- A gradual warming trend is expected Friday into the weekend,
  followed by another cooldown after the arrival of a strong cold
  front Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Storms and rain are finished late this evening across Southeast
Texas, and the lead front (or pre-frontal trough, difficult to say
precisely) is off the coast, having turned winds northerly. A more
impressive front is making its way through Southeast Texas, and
those northerly winds are becoming strong and gusty. As of 11pm,
Brenham leads the way with gusts to 29 mph.

Gusts in excess of 25 mph can be expected across the area, with
gusts up into the 30s in the more open prairie areas west of the
Houston metro. A wind advisory is in place through the night for
everything beyond the intracoastal waterway, with a particularly
emphasis on the stretches downwind of Matagorda and Galveston
bays, thanks to the lower friction of the open water. The wind
advisory does also stretch inland a bit to cover the remainder of
Matagorda County, as well as Wharton and Jackson counties. In
these locations, sustained winds look to peak around 25 mph, with
gusts above 35 mph.

Gusty north winds ushering in drier conditions naturally invites
fire weather questions, and it will indeed be a breezy, dry day on
Thursday. There is a bit of nuance to that, and some help from
fuels conditions, though - more on that in the fire weather
section below.

Thursday should be pleasantly cool - below seasonal averages, but
not drastically so, plus plenty of sun to help take the edge off
the breeze. The next couple of nights should also be quite crisp
and refreshing...maybe even a little too much so if you`re more a
fan of the warmer weather. The chilliest spots up north may manage
to briefly slip into the upper 30s in the pre-dawn hours Thursday
night into Friday morning. The NBM paints a swath of 30-40 percent
probability for that. Given the clear sky, winds becoming light
tomorrow night, and dry air locked into place...those
probabilities seem lower than a true probability. For most of us,
though, it`s a pretty solid bet that we wind up somewhere in the
40s, and those right on the Gulf will still struggle to fall below
50 degrees, in spite of the chilly situation.

Onshore winds look to return on Friday, so this dip in temps will
be somewhat temporary, as warmer and eventually more humid
conditions come back for the weekend. This shouldn`t be a repeat
of the almost summer-like nights we`ve seen of late, and before we
can get there, another cold front looks to swing through Sunday
night. We`ll build back some moisture with the onshore flow, so
there should be some amount of showers and thunderstorms that can
be squeezed out. However, with precipitable water only progged to
get back into the 50th to 75th percentile per the LREF ensemble,
it will be a muted event compared to what we experienced earlier
today. For now, I have PoPs restricted to areas around and east of
I-45, where moisture looks to be deepest before the front arrives.

With the passage of another front, the cycle begins anew - some
below average temperatures to begin the new week, with gradual
warming to modestly above average temperatures mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Expect MVFR to VFR conditions with isolated showers and
thunderstorms as a second cold front passes through SE Texas this
evening. Chance for rain ends and skies will be lifting and
clearing just before 05Z tonight as drier air moves into the
region. Winds tonight into 12Z Thu will be NW-N around 16-22 KTS
with gusts of 24-30 KTS inland and 20-30 KTS with gusts up of
25-35 KTS along the coasts. There is the potential for LLVL Wind
Shear during the overnight hours, which may be added to the 06Z
TAF issuance. From around 12Z-18Z, expect N-NE winds at 15-20 KTS
with gusts up to 25 KTS inland, slightly stronger along the
coasts. Winds will begin to relax after 18Z, with calm VRB winds
expected Thu night.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

A cold front has moved through the area and strong, gusty winds
are beginning to build in its wake across Southeast Texas and the
coastal waters. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the coastal
Gulf waters, and near gale conditions can even be expected into
the lower portions of the bays.

Conditions will gradually improve through Thursday, with quicker
improvement on the lower waters than the upper waters. A small
craft advisory will be in place following the end of gale
conditions into the afternoon, with continued relaxation in winds
into Thursday evening. Relatively tranquil conditions are expected
by week`s end, with onshore flow returning on Friday.

At the coast, the strong offshore winds will help drive negative
tide levels at low tide early Thursday morning. Though very near
the threshold for a low water advisory, water levels should remain
high enough that such an advisory will not be needed. With winds
diminishing Thursday and turning back onshore Friday, there will
likely be only one negative tide cycle.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Windier and much drier conditions are building into the area
following a frontal passage. Wind gusts tonight are expected to
reach 25 to 30 mph, and closer to 35 mph in the open prairies
north of Matagorda Bay and west of the Houston metro. Winds will
decrease through the day Thursday, which will be one helpful
factor in mitigating the fire environment. Once the driest
conditions of the day begin with RH values dropping into the 30 to
35 percent range, winds should be falling below 10 mph with gusts
into the lower to middle teens. Also helping conditions will be
the recent amount of moisture across the area, keeping fuels in
manageable conditions. TAMFS data shows ERC values are around or
below the 50th percentile across the area and low to moderate fire
danger in spite of the dry air moving in.

Friday also looks fairly dry, but light winds will be switching
back to southeasterly, resulting in rising RH values through the
weekend. Another surge of dry air can be expected early in the new
week after another frontal passage on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  44  65  41  75 /  60   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  49  66  46  75 /  10   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  54  65  57  69 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ235-236-335-336-
     436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ330-335.

     Gale Warning until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ350-370.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ350-
     370.

     Gale Warning until 10 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ355-375.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ355-
     375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...Luchs

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion