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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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834
FXUS64 KHGX 312320
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily chances of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
  begin Wednesday with the greatest chances on Saturday into
  Saturday night as a cold front moves into/through the area.

- Unseasonably warm weather persists through Saturday, then the
  cold front ushers in cooler, more seasonal temperatures by
  Sunday.

- Increasing risk of strong rip currents Thursday into the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

We are in the midst of a pattern change for the region where the
high pressure that has been dominating our weather will be
sliding to the east. This will not only increase moisture to the
region (through increased southeasterly flow), but also allow for
some weak upper-level disturbances to pass by overhead bringing a
return of rain chances to the region. The first of these weak
disturbances will be tomorrow producing some scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms during the morning and afternoon
hours. Coverage of the activity will wane during the evening hours
with the loss of daytime heating. Chances increase Thursday
morning into Thursday afternoon a cold front approaches then
stalls over the region. Anticipating that the Piney Woods and
Brazos Valley regions will have the greatest coverage of showers
and thunderstorms on Thursday closer to where the frontal boundary
will stall, but isolated activity will be possible all the way to
the coast. PWATs will increase to around 1.7" on Thursday, so
cannot out rule some isolated heavy rainfall with any
thunderstorms that develop. Again, rain chances are expected to
diminish by sunset.

Some isolated streamer showers will be possible on Friday thanks
to the moist onshore flow, but the greatest coverage is expected
on Saturday as a stronger cold front pushes into the region. Exact
timing and strength of the front is a little uncertain at the
moment, but guidance is narrowing in on a Saturday evening/night
timeframe for the FROPA. This front will bring greater chances of
widespread showers and thunderstorms across much of the region
compared to Thursday`s weak front. A strong surface high pressure
building behind Saturday`s front will help it push through the
region, but some guidance does show the front stalling near the
coast through Sunday. PWATs will again be near 1.7-2.0" on
Saturday, so localized downpours will be a possible. WPC has all
of SE Texas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive
rainfall on Saturday, but our main impact will likely be minor
urban and small stream flooding where drainage is poor. This
rainfall will be beneficial our to worsening drought conditions
across the region.

Afternoon high temperatures will continue to be in the mid to
upper 80s for much of the region through Saturday, with the
exception of Thursday where some cooler air is able to filter into
the region with the stalling boundary keeping high temperatures in
the upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s
to low 70s through the rest of the week. The cold front Saturday
evening/night will usher in cooler weather for the start of next
week with highs back down to near 70 on Sunday and Monday.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

VFR currently across all SE TX sites with SE winds at 12-18 KTS
and gusts up to 25 KTS through this evening. Winds will relax to
around 08-12 KTS around 01Z and 05-08 KTS after 04Z. Skies will
gradually become BKN/OVC tonight into early Wed morning, leading
to IFR-MVFR cig categories for most sites. Sites that see winds
of around 05 KTS could see some patchy fog developing. Fog, if
any, is expected to burn off quickly after 14-15Z. Cloud decks
will gradually lift during the mid-morning hours and scatter out
during the afternoon hours. SE winds will increase late Wed
morning into early Wed afternoon, expect speeds of 12-18 KTS with
gusts of around 25 KTS through the late evening hours. Iso-Sct
showers and thunderstorms could develop mainly during the
afternoon and are expected to dissipate during the early evening
hours.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist through
the remainder of the week with winds around 10-15kt with gusts to
20kt and seas 3-5ft. May see an increase on Wednesday night into Thursday
with gusts to 25kt and occasional seas to 6ft possible as the
pressure gradient tightens across the waters. There will be daily
rain chances beginning Wednesday, but greatest coverage will
remain inland with some isolated morning showers possible in the
coastal waters. The greatest rain chances will be Saturday evening
into Sunday morning as a cold front enters the coastal waters.

The persistent onshore flow, which does become moderate at times,
will lead to an increased risk of strong rip currents along Gulf-
facing beaches by Thursday.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  68  87  69  83 /   0  10  20  70
Houston (IAH)  70  85  72  83 /   0  40  10  40
Galveston (GLS)  72  78  72  78 /  10  30  10  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...Fowler

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion