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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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632
FXUS64 KHGX 272341
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
641 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front will push through the area overnight bring lower
  humidity and temperatures mainly in the 70s on Saturday.

- An uptick in moisture and a return to above-normal temperatures
  are expected heading into early next week. Rain chances return
  during the second part of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

A shallow cold front is currently moving across North-central TX and
is progged to reach our northern counties by late this afternoon,
eventually moving off of the coast after midnight. Moisture remains
limited along the boundary, with PWATs generally holding in the 1.0
to 1.3 inch range. While a few sprinkles cannot be ruled out along
the leading edge, a dry frontal passage is expected for the vast
majority of the region. The primary impact will be a welcome airmass
change as surface dewpoints drop from the 60s (today) into the upper
30s to mid 50s by Saturday afternoon.

Saturday will feel much more like late March. Highs will be in the
low to mid 70s under a mix of post-frontal clouds and afternoon sun.
As the surface high shifts east on Sunday, onshore flow will resume,
initiating a warming and more humid trend to start the work week.

Ridging aloft will weaken and shift east by midweek, opening the
door for a more active quasi-zonal flow and the  passage of several
embedded vorticity maxima. This shifting pattern, combined with
increasing WAA and Gulf moisture will favor low-end rain chances
starting Tuesday. The next notable chance for precipitation arrives
after midweek ahead of a weak trough traversing the Plains.
Models continue to suggest PW values increasing into the 1.5 to
1.8 inch range late Wednesday through the end of the week. This
environment will be enough to trigger showers and thunderstorms
from midweek into next weekend.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Cold front is situated across northern parts of SE Tx as of this
writing and should continual its gradual southward progress and
into the Gulf late tonight and early Saturday morning. VFR
conditions are expected ahead of the front, but am looking for
some prevailing MVFR cigs to fill in behind it, along with some
NE winds 13g25kt. Winds will gradually diminish from mid morning
Saturday onward and veer a bit more toward the ENE. Confidence in
terms of when the MVFR ceilings will lift/scatter is lower. Have
extended the duration of lower cigs for most TAF sites later into
the morning compared to earlier issuances. Some guidance suggests
they could linger into early afternoon, while others aren`t as
pessimistic. We`ll keep an eye on trends. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Updated to add Galveston Bay into the Small Craft Advisory with
several HREF members showing speeds ramping up into the 20-25kt
range late tonight into mid-late Saturday morning.

A cold front will enter the waters late tonight, resulting in a
wind shift to the northeast on Saturday. Winds will remain between
20 to 25 knots with higher gusts possible through early
afternoon; therefore, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect. It`s
not out of the realm of possibility to see some 30kt gusts in the
waters generally east of Freeport. Wind speeds begin to weaken by
Saturday afternoon, slowly transitioning to the SE Saturday night
into early Sunday. Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow
will persist through the entire week. The pattern aloft will begin
to shift next week, resulting in the introduction of low-rain
chances with the best chances towards the end of the week.

JM/47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  55  72  54  82 /  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  59  76  56  83 /  10   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  62  72  65  75 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 4 AM CDT Saturday
     through Saturday afternoon for GMZ330.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to noon CDT Saturday for GMZ335.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ350-
     370.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ355-
     375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...47
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion