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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

385
FXUS64 KHGX 142314
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
614 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

- Seasonably hot conditions expected through the forecast period.

- Isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
  possible this afternoon, with the best chance south and west of
  Houston.

- Chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms increases somewhat
  late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

A feature of interest that captures my attention today is an
outflow boundary pushing across the Gulf waters, near the
Galveston County and Chambers County coastline. The boundary has
had a history of sparking off widely scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity. As the boundary heads west, it will likely
result in a brief period of gusty east to southeast winds along
the coast. But the boundary will also be interacting with day time
heating in an environment featuring less stout ridging and
somewhat higher PWs than days prior. In other words, there is a
better chance of isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms today. PoPs over most of the CWA are low (15-20%).
But I have added some 30-40 PoPs over portions of our southern
counties (primarily south and west of Houston). The NBM today has
trended drier, giving some pause on those PoPs. In addition, HREF
fcst soundings indicate a more stable atmosphere above 700 MB,
suggesting any convection will be of the shallower variety. That
being said, watching this boundary approach a region with a
gradually building field of cumulus has me thinking there will be
some enhanced lift and at least a few showers. So I`ll stand by
these 30-40 pops. The afternoon radar shall tell us how well this
forecast ages. Temperatures today are expected to skew near to
slightly above normal in the low/mid 90s.

Monday-Wednesday appear seasonably hot (~ low 90s) with a chance
of isolated showers and thunderstorms. The late week forecast on
the otherhand may be in flux. We are still expecting a trough to
dig southward over the Midwest and eventually E CONUS. Yesterday,
it was looking like synoptic scale lift would be lacking while
mesoscale lift would be possible due to small disturbances
embedded in the flow aloft. But long range global guidance today
is showing more vorticity, and thus the potential for more larger
scale lift, on our side of the deep layer trough. Since the
potential for larger scale ascent appears to be increasing, we`ve
opted to increase late week PoPs, showing 20-30 PoPs Thursday,
30-40 PoPs on Friday, and 20-30 PoPs on Saturday. Temperatures are
expected to remain seasonably hot in the low 90s.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

All sites at VFR. Still have isolated showers on the north side of
I-10, but expect those to dwindle in the next hour. Light and
variable winds again overnight. Patchy fog possible in early
morning hours through sunrise for KLBX/KCXO. Winds become
southeasterly again Monday with isolated showers possible again in
the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

A westward progressing outflow boundary may bring a brief period
of gusty east to southeast winds today. Generally speaking, winds
will be light to occasionally moderate. Isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. For Monday and
Tuesday, east to southeast winds are expected to increase over the
Gulf, possibly gusting over 20 knots at times. This may result in
a modest increase in seas. The persistent east to southeast flow
will continue to keep water levels high, reaching 3 to 3.5 feet
above MLLW during high tide cycles over the next several days.
Shower and thunderstorm chances increase towards the end of the
week as the larger scale pattern changes.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  71  92  68  93 /   0  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  75  92  73  93 /   0  20   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  81  89  80  89 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion