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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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371
FXUS64 KHGX 231143
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
643 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions expected through early next week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over the next
  couple of days.

- Potential change to a wetter pattern by the end of the month.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

The firmly planted ridge remains the main driving force of our
current serene weather pattern. Tomorrow`s temperatures, again,
reach the low to mid 80s before dipping into the low 50s to low 60s
for overnight lows inland. The "less sticky" feeling outside is
anticipated to continue into the weekend. Surface moisture remains
off shore and dewpoints hover in the upper 40s to low 60s.
Situational awareness for sustained fire risk does continue through
Friday as Relative Humidity values sit around 25-30% during the day.
Light winds, however, will keep us out of Red Flag criteria.

Moving into the weekend, the ridge and continual dry air keeps
little to no rain chances over Southeast Texas. As a result, daytime
highs remain in the low to mid 80s inland and the upper 70s to low
80s along the coasts. Overnight lows remain seasonal, between the
low 50s and low 60s inland while slightly warmer along the coast
between the upper 60s and low 70s. A weak low-level jet max and a
slightly tighter pressure gradient extend north from the Rio Grande
Valley, that could bring slightly increased surface winds on
Saturday and Sunday. But the minimal PWAT values do keep precip
chances low, despite the increased upper-level dynamics.

Rain chances look to return early next week as an upper level trough
moves through the Southern Plains and warm moist air from the Gulf
pushes into the region. Look for isolated to scattered showers and
possible isolated thunderstorms mainly for areas west of I-45.

CMW/Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

MVFR VSBYs occurring at KLBX. All other sites at VFR. Expect LBX
to return to VFR around 14Z. VFR will prevail at all sites through
the period. Winds will be light and variable this morning, with
light winds out of the southeast this afternoon through the rest
of the day.

Bailey

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Light easterly winds and seas of 1 to 3 feet through Friday.
Winds are expected to increase to 15-20 knots by late Saturday
and continue into Monday. This will lead to seas rising to 4-6
feet by Sunday, possibly reaching 7 feet at times over the
offshore waters. Caution Flags and/or Small Craft Advisories may
be required. The moderate easterly flow will continue for much of
the upcoming week, additional Caution Flags may be needed at
times. Winds relax and seas subside Tuesday and Wednesday.

With respect to rain chances, expect tranquil weather conditions
through the weekend. The return of showers and thunderstorms may
occur early next week as an upper level trough moves across the
Southern Plains and moisture from the Gulf returns to the local
area.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  85  56  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  87  61  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  80  70  80  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CMW
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion