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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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537
FXUS64 KHGX 311156
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
656 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gradual warming trend along with some late night to mid morning
  cloudiness/patchy fog potential this week. Most notable will be
  the well above normal low temperatures.

- Shower/thunderstorm chances return to the forecast during the
  second part of the week. Late Wednesday night into Thursday and
  late Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning currently have the
  most favorable chances.

- Cold front passes through Saturday night into Sunday bringing
  cooler conditions for Easter, though there is some uncertainty
  as to when the rainfall tapers off.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

It`s time for everyone`s favorite gameshow...Will There Be Fog?
Onshore flow, check! Dew point depressions near or at zero, check!
Clear skies heading into the nighttime hours, check! Light winds at
the surface/aloft...ehh...let`s look at that one a little bit
closer. As low pressure continues to deepen in the Upper Midwest,
the associated LLJ that extends southwestward into Texas will
strengthen overnight. This leads to 25-30 kt winds just over 1 km
above the surface. The PBL will be decoupled right around 1 km, so
there`ll be 20ish kt to work with at the top of the layer. This
will likely lead to winds remaining elevated just enough to keep
fog from developing for most locations. Could fog still develop?
Absolutely! But if there`s only just a few observations of
reduced visibilities, then you know why! The LLJ is a bit stronger
Tuesday night, so it`ll be a very similar scenario. Did we really
just spend an entire paragraph talking about fog potential just
for the answer to be a resounding maybe? You know it!

Over the next couple of days that`s really the only thing of note
outside of the above normal temperatures (especially the low
temperatures). Temperatures will be on a gradual increasing trend
going into midweek with high temperatures continuing to reach the
mid to upper 80s (upper 70s/low 80s along the coast). Low
temperatures will only bottom out in the upper 60s to low 70s
tonight. The average high temperature this time of the year is in
the upper 70s, so we`ll be a few degrees shy of that during the
overnight hours...doesn`t that just sound lovely?

While we`re on the topic of discussing abnormal things, we`ve been
abnormally dry for the past 2+ weeks. The last time that the City of
Houston had observable rainfall (more than a trace) was March
11th...nearly three weeks ago! According to my notes that is...not
good for the ongoing drought situation. ~83% of Southeast Texas is
in at least a severe drought, but there will be a few opportunities
for much needed rainfall both around midweek and over the weekend.
[Note: this isn`t counting the low potential of isolated showers on
Tuesday.]

The first opportunity for rainfall comes on Wednesday and Thursday.
PW values reach near or above the 90th percentile (~1.50") on
Wednesday. Couple that with a LLJ, a passing embedded shortwave, and
daytime heating, and we have potential for isolated to scattered
showers and storms. On Thursday is when we add a frontal boundary
into the mix. As a shortwave trough pushes through the Four Corners
region on Wednesday, a subsequent surface low will develop near the
Oklahoma Panhandle and drift northeastward. An associated cold front
will push southeastward towards Southeast Texas, but not THROUGH
Southeast Texas. Moisture convergence along the front will have PW
values near the MAX (~1.85"). Combine this with divergence aloft,
and we have a fairly decent setup for moderate to heavy rainfall.
There remains some uncertainty on the timing, but the best consensus
for now looks to be Thursday morning/afternoon. Upper level support
is generally better north of I-10, so that explains the higher rain
chances for these areas. We`ll have a better idea on timing once we
get in range of high-resolution model guidance.

We get a break from the rain on Friday, then Saturday into Sunday is
when the next chance of rain comes. This is due to another cold
front, but this one looks to actually push through thanks to more
favorable upper level support. It`s a bit early to look too much
into the details on the rainfall, but the ingredients do look to be
in place for moderate to heavy rainfall. Current timing is late
Saturday night into Sunday (Easter). Rain may linger throughout the
day on Easter, so be sure to stay up to date on the forecast
especially if you have any outdoor plans. Cooler air will follow in
the wake of this front going into early next week.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 652 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

IAH at IFR due to low CIGs. CLL/GLS/HOU/SGR at MVFR due to
CIGs/VSBYs. Expect conditions to improve by mid-late morning. VFR
conditions expected through the remainder of the day. Winds will
be out of the south/southeast at around 10-15 knots with gusts to
25 knots at times this afternoon. Another round of IFR/LIFR CIGs
and VSBYs expected overnight into Wednesday morning.

Bailey

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Period of benign marine conditions continues over the next few days
with light onshore flow and 2-4 ft seas through midweek. Around
midweek, the pressure gradient tightens leading to elevated winds
and seas that may prompt caution flags at times, especially late
Wednesday into Thursday. This increased onshore flow will increased
the risk of rip currents going into the latter half of the week.
With various disturbances pushing through midweek and into the
weekend, there will be a few opportunities for showers and
thunderstorms: Wednesday into Thursday and late Saturday into Sunday
as a cold front pushes through. Moderate offshore flow and elevated
seas are expected in the wake of this front into Monday.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  87  68  87  70 /  10   0  20  20
Houston (IAH)  85  70  85  72 /  20   0  40  10
Galveston (GLS)  79  71  79  72 /  20  10  50  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion