Skip to main content.

National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

Related quick links> 5 Day Forecast, Local Advisories, Drought Monitor, UV Forecast, Air Quality Forecast 
201
FXUS64 KHGX 140409
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1109 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A brief increase in Gulf moisture could boost rain chances on
  Friday.

- Dry weather pattern is expected to develop this weekend into
  next week.

- Slightly above average summertime heat (upper 90s/lower 100s)
  will persist through the next several days. Cumulative impacts
  of heat (and heat stress) will remain a significant risk factor,
  especially for heat-sensitive populations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Partly cloudy skies expected overnight along with low
temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s areawide. Winds will
continue to relax to around 5 mph or less by late tonight.

A surge of moisture from the western Gulf waters along with a few
vort maxes will make its way into Southeast Texas on Friday. PWs
are expected to rise to 1.9-2.2 starting in the morning for the
areas south of I-10 and expanding northward to the rest of the CWA
during the late morning to early afternoon hours. Although these
PWs should generally be able to bring some decent rainfall, the
broad mid-upper level high pressure over SE CONUS will remain
fairly strong with the western edge of it expanding even further
west into western TX during the day Friday. I have continued to
carry PoPs of 20-30%, in particular during the afternoon where
instability and diurnal heating is at its highest and may be
assisted by the seabreeze boundary. If any strong storms do
develop, brief periods of heavy rainfall is possible. The highs
will be a degree or two less than yesterday, but still range in
the mid to upper 90s for much of the inland areas while the coasts
remain in the lower 90s.

Dry conditions will resume this weekend and continue into the
upcoming work week. The highs will be in the upper 90s inland and
the lower to mid 90s along the coast, with some locations possibly
hitting the 100 deg F mark next week. Heat indices will peak
between 105-110 deg F for many locations. Do not underestimate the
effects of heat stress when working or spending time outdoors for
extended periods. Make sure to keep protecting yourself, your
loved ones, and pets safe from the heat :). As stated in the
previous forecast discussion, reduce or change the time spent
outdoors to cooler times of day, increase the time and access to
air-conditioned spaces, and always check the car seats before
departing your vehicle.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Breezy southerly winds will continue through sunset with gusts to
around 17-23kt, then diminish to around 5-8kt overnight tonight.
These breezy winds will return after sunrise and continue through
the evening hours on Friday.

VFR conditions will generally prevail across the area through
tomorrow, but there may be a period of MVFR conditions at CLL
late tonight into early Friday morning with CIGs around 1500ft.
These conditions are also possible at UTS and CXO, but chances are
low enough to not include in the TAF.

A surge in moisture will allow for isolate to widely scattered
showers to develop along the coast in the morning, then work their
way northwards through the afternoon. Coverage will be limited
enough so that mention in the TAFs are PROB30s for now. Will also
need to monitor the potential for isolated thunderstorms as well,
but again coverage is expected to be very limited. Will continue
to monitor for future updates.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Caution flags will remain in effect for the bays and Gulf waters
through late tonight due to moderate onshore winds and seas of up
to 5 feet. Winds will gradually decrease Friday and will continue
mostly light through the upcoming work week as high pressure
builds. Seas will decrease to 2-3 feet by early Saturday. A surge
in moisture is expected on Friday and could lead to isolated to
scattered shower and thunderstorms throughout the day. By
Saturday, we will transition to a dry weather pattern as drier air
moves in and the high pressure builds.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  97  77  98 /   0  20   0   0
Houston (IAH)  79  95  80  97 /   0  30   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  84  90  84  90 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 AM CDT Friday for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cotto
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion