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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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471
FXUS64 KHGX 300618
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1218 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold, Arctic air spills into the region tonight and persists
  into Sunday. Cold Weather Advisories for tonight and (Hard)
  Freeze Watches for Saturday night have been posted.

- Hazardous marine conditions through most of the weekend with
  elevated winds/seas, and also low water levels.

- A gradual warm up early next week along with some rain chances
  returning to the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1214 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

No real significant changes were made to the forecast. Initial cold
front is making its way thru the region at the time of this writing.
Cooler and somewhat breezy conditions are anticipated today with
some high Pacific cloudiness moving overhead.

Tonight, colder Arctic air will be filtering into the area as a
1040mb high sags south thru the Plains into Texas. Temperatures will
dip into the 25-37F range by Saturday morning with wind chills down
into the 15-25F range continuing into late morning Sat. A Cold
Weather Advisory remains in effect. A very modest warm up is
briefly expected during the day Saturday, but only between
37-45F.

Saturday night, we`ll see the coldest readings associated with
this airmass with the surface high situated just to our ne. With
lighter winds and clear skies, readings should fall into the
18-33F range and slightly lower wind chills. Suspect most of our
region will see a hard freeze (temps at or below 24F for 2+ hours)
so went ahead and hoisted a Freeze Watch for all except locations
closest to the coast. Most of them too will see a freeze, but
probably not down to 24F.

Sunday, ridging will gradually move off to the east. Southeast flow
off the Gulf will resume and bring some gradually warmer temps and
moisture back inland as we get into early next week.

Elongated mid/upper trof off Baja looks to kick out and track
eastward across Tx late Mon. If we have enough moisture recovery by
late in the day, we could see some scattered showers. If not,
there should be enough by late Tuesday to see some rain ahead of
the next front that should be in the vicinity by then. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 525 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

The main aviation concern will be a wind shift and increasing
gusts due to the passage of a dry cold front. The front will move
across the terminals this evening, bringing NW winds around 10 to
15 knots with higher gusts at times. Gusts will continue through
Friday afternoon, before gradually weakening from northwest to
southeast by the afternoon.

With surface winds increasing this evening into Friday, LLWS
should not reach thresholds. However, keep in mind that there is
a possibility of a window of LLWS with gusts around 30 knots at
12-2kft, especially around IAH terminal.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1214 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

A cold front will be pushing off the coast around or shortly after
midnight followed by increasing north northwest winds and building
seas overnight. Small Craft Advisories are in effect. With a
reinforcing surge of cold, Arctic air anticipated tonight, we will
see another bump up in wind speeds and seas into Saturday. Gradually
improving conditions are anticipated Saturday night and Sunday
(albeit cold). Onshore winds should resume Sunday night and Monday.

Already low astronomical tides will produce negative water levels
through the weekend...but PETSS guidance is really pinging low tide
cycles today through Saturday night when levels potentially fall to
near, or slightly below, -2ft MLLW. Mariners should be especially careful
about grounding - especially considering stronger winds and rough waters
that`ll make for challenging navigation conditions.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  53  29  40  21 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  54  33  44  24 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  55  37  45  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Saturday for TXZ163-
     164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338.

     Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
     TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>237-300.

GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ330-
     335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM CST Saturday for GMZ350-355-370-
     375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion