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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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398
FXUS64 KHGX 021901
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
201 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered seabreeze activity continuing this afternoon as well
  as a Marginal Risk of severe storms for the northern half of the
  region due to strong winds moving in from the northeast
  possible late this afternoon/evening.

- Hot and humid conditions expected through mid-week. Make sure to
  be prepared for the heat if you plan to work or spend time
  outdoors.

- Shower/storm chances increase going into the end of the work
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

More robust seabreeze shower/storm activity today, with the early
afternoon activity favoring the southwestern portions of the
region near Matagorda Bay. Isolated to scattered activity will
continue through the afternoon. Showers and storms blossoming
across northeast TX along a southward propagating boundary will
continue to push south throughout the afternoon towards the
northern fringes of the CWA. This area is a focal point for
severe weather potential due to robust instability profiles, which
will tend towards a damaging wind threat. While probabilities are
lower, cannot rule out this line of storms maintaining into the
evening hours, thus the severe threat exists for at least the
northern half of the CWA through the evening hours. The Houston
metro area has lower chances for seeing the more robust activity
as storms dissipate going through the evening hours, so the
expectation at this point would be increasing wind gust potential
in the 30-40 mph range late this evening.

The ridge axis begins to slide out to the east on Wednesday as an
upper level low over the Baja Peninsula begins its trek eastward.
This decrease in subsidence paired with placement into southwesterly
flow aloft and PW values remaining elevated means that chances for
showers/storms will continue through the work week. Shower/storm
chances increase further towards the end of the work week and into
the weekend as the upper level low moves in closer. The progression
of the low is a little bit uncertain after it moves into northern
Mexico by Friday. Most guidance takes it northeastward near the
Texas Panhandle, but from there guidance is split on if it lingers
or if it continues northeastward. Either way, southwest flow aloft
and PW values over 2" does equal increased rain chances. The peak of
this moisture looks to occur Friday into Saturday with PW values
potentially nearing 2.2-2.4". This deeper tropical moisture would be
capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, so it`s not a surprise
that most of Southeast Texas is already in a marginal risk (level 1
of 4) of excessive rainfall on Friday. Parts of the area will
likely be outlooked for the weekend as well as we get closer to
the weekend. The good news about the increased rain chances is
that this means we`ll have slightly lower daytime temperatures.
We`ll trade out the early week high temperatures in the low 90s
for high temperatures in the upper 80s by the end of the work
week.

Young/Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 548 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Again seeing a mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR ceilings and vsbys early this
morning. These should all trend into VFR territory in the mid
morning hours. Expect some scattered seabreeze activity in the
metro/coastal areas into the early afternoon hours...with
additional cell development further inland with daytime heating.
Attention turns to E/NE TX late in the day, where guidance is
pointing to expanding storm development...eventually congealing
into a broken southwest moving line. Some of these storms could be
on the strong side...with gusts to 35kt+ not out of realm of
possibility in/near the stronger cells. UTS/CLL should be on the
lookout early in the evening. CXO, IAH, HOU, GLS then follow in
the 02-06z timeframe. Hires guidance suggests some weakening with
time as they push toward I-10, but these southwest movers tend to
overperform (both in intensity and forward movement) so keep an
eye on the wx. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Light onshore flow and low seas will prevail through this evening.
A weak frontal boundary approaches the waters late this evening
leading to a transition to easterly winds. Cannot entirely rule a
band of showers/storms in association with this boundary pushing
offshore with potential for gusty winds. Winds transition back to
east-southeasterly to southeasterly by Wednesday night into
Thursday with wind speeds occasionally strengthening near the
caution flag threshold going into the weekend. The occasionally
stronger onshore flow will lead to gradually building seas towards
the end of the work week. Another consequence of the occasionally
stronger onshore flow is an increased risk of rip currents
beginning around midweek. Isolated to scattered showers and storms
will be possible daily, but expect these chances to increase
towards the end of the work week.

Young/Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  73  87  72  85 /  50  30  20  60
Houston (IAH)  74  87  73  85 /  50  50  40  80
Galveston (GLS)  79  86  78  86 /  40  50  60  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Young/Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Young/Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion