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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

291
FXUS64 KHGX 291119
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
619 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally hot and dry through the end of the week, with heat
  index values close to Heat Advisory thresholds.

- Isolated shower or thunderstorm possible along the sea breeze
  boundary today.

- Chance of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms increases
  by the weekend / early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

North America is under an amplified mid/upper flow pattern as
evident on GOES water vapor imagery and 500 MB RAP analysis. The
pattern over Texas is dominated by a stout mid/upper ridge, centered
over New Mexico and with a ridge axis that extends deep into central
Canada. This ridge will be the primary driver our weather, keeping
conditions hot and relatively dry through the end of the week.
Global ensembles suggest the ridge will build further over region,
w/ ensemble mean 500MB height rising from ~592dm to ~595dm between
now and Friday. These same ensembles also indicate a slight climb in
850 MB temps, rising from ~20-22C to ~23-25C over the next few days,
portending to building heat at the surface. Temperates have already
been hot, though not quite as hot as our friend the NBM has
suggested. Our forecast the last few days has leaned more on the
NBM, resulting in a slightly hotter forecast than reality.
Therefore, I mixed in some 25th percentile NBM into our temperature
grids. But don`t get too excited about the "cooler" guidance. Our
forecast high temperatures remain near 100 degrees through week`s
end. Afternoon dew points are forecast to mix down into the upper
60s to low 70s, equating to heat indices in the 105-108 degree range
(Heat Advisory criteria is 108). Heat indices will likely be close
to advisory criteria through the end of the week. Some possibility
of even lower dew points on Friday if the global deterministic
guidance has their way.

Despite the dry signal in the pattern, there is some hope for rain.
Hi-res forecast soundings indicate capping aloft today. But I am
unconvinced that the cap will too strong to prevent an isolated
shower or thunderstorm along the sea breeze boundary. Sfc
convergence could be particularly strong in the vicinity where the
Galveston Bay breeze converges with the ambient southwesterly
flow. HRRR and RRFS suggest a brief thunderstorm or two will occur
in Harris County this afternoon. In addition, there may be hope
for some isolated to scattered showers/storm by the weekend or
early next week as the mid/upper pattern retrogrades, shifting the
downstream troughing over eastern CONUS westward. Global ensemble
means drop 500 MB heights to ~587dm, while also introducing some
PVA into the area from the east. There is even some potential for
a weak backdoor front to push into our neck of the woods by Sunday
and Monday.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

A forecast of persistence looks tough to beat. A few isolated
patches of higher end MVFR cigs/fog north and west of the metro
area will burn off early this morning, with VFR conditions
anticipated area-wide for the rest of the day. Will keep an eye
on the possibility of a late day seabreeze/baybreeze shower or
tstm around the metro (similar to yesterday), but will not include
the mention in the 12z TAFs.  47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Light to moderate southwest winds are expected through Friday.
Winds may become more southerly during the afternoon and hours.
Seas are expected to average 2 to 4 feet. Southwest winds and seas
are expected to increase over the weekend, possible nearing Small
Craft Advisory thresholds in some areas. We also expect an
increase chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
by the weekend and early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  97  76  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  99  79 100  79 /  20   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  91  82  91  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion