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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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711
FXUS64 KHGX 121123
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
623 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Look for scattered to occasionally numerous showers and
  thunderstorms Sunday (30-70% chance).

- Marginal risk for excessive rainfall for all of SE Texas Sunday,
  and slight risk of excessive rainfall for the majority of SE
  Texas on Monday.

- Better chances of widespread precipitation, some possibly heavy at
  times, is anticipated Monday-Tuesday.

- A gradual drying/warming trend should take shape heading into
  the second half of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight. Expect
activity to be confined to the coast where a pocket of moisture
convergence and CAPE both reside.

Another round of showers and storms is anticipated for Sunday as
we continue to see PWAT values in the 2.0-2.5" range. Expect
showers and storms to increase in coverage during the afternoon
hours as daytime heating kicks in. Additionally, hi- res models
are showing a diffuse backdoor front working its way into the area
from the north.
While, initially, activity will gradually move inland from the
Gulf
--as the diffuse front moves in, expect storm motion to transition
 with storms pushing slowly back towards the coast. Sounding
 analysis reflects an environment suitable for efficient warm rain
 processes, so could see instances of flash flooding with storms
 that produce heavier rainfall rates (especially in areas that
 have already received decent rainfall).

The wet pattern will continue into next week as SE texas resides
in the southern periphery of an area of high pressure that will
move into the northern CONUS and on the west side of an area of
low pressure in the SE CONUS. 500mb analysis shows a series of
vorticity maxima moving from east to west into our area. As it
interacts with deep moisture, upper-level forcing, and low shear,
expect to see showers and storms become more scattered to numerous
in coverage. This will result in multiple days of at least a
marginal excessive rainfall risk (with Monday featuring a SLIGHT
risk for most of the area). The most favorable timing for
convective development and heavier rainfall will be during the day
with peak heating and the aid of the sea breeze.

The pattern will transition and become less active by Thursday as
hot and dry conditions return to the region. Expect this hotter
and drier pattern to continue into the weekend as high pressure
builds in. While most of the area should remain rain-free,
persistent southerly flow could result in isolated, diurnally-
driven activity along the sea breeze during the afternoon hours.

Bailey

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals for the next 18-24
hours. A few SHRA may develop this morning beginning near LBX and
GLS, then pushing northward and increasing to TSRA this afternoon.
Best timing for TSRA is from 19-01z, earlier at the Houston metro
terminals and later at CLL and UTS. There`s some uncertainty in
the onset of SHRA/TSRA, so these TEMPOs are preceded by a couple
hours of VCSH. Some gusty winds are possible in and near TSRA.
Most TSRA will fade after 01z. Cigs may drop to MVFR at CLL and
UTS late in the period. SHRA and possibly TSRA will redevelop near
the end of the period near LBX, GLS, LVJ, and possibly HOU.
Increasing coverage of TSRA is expected after 12z, so have
included PROB30s after 12z Mon for IAH.

Young

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Light to moderate onshore winds and seas around 2 to 4 ft will
persist tonight and into the upcoming week. The main concern will be
showers and storms developing late night and into the morning hours,
before moving inland during the day. Highest chances are expected
Monday into Tuesday with scattered to numerous showers and storms.
Elevated winds and seas can be expected near/around any stronger
storms. Drier conditions along with light onshore winds resume after
midweek.

Bailey/JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  93  76  89  74 /  30  30  60  60
Houston (IAH)  92  78  89  76 /  60  40  80  60
Galveston (GLS)  90  82  89  81 /  60  50  60  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Bailey

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion