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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

306
FXUS64 KHGX 201847 AAA
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
147 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms today, generally along the
   coast east of Galveston.

 - Higher chances of storms for northern areas Monday.

 - Hot temperatures with daily isolated to scattered diurnal
   thunderstorms for much of the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

An upper ridge continues to encompass the forecast area, however
latest water vapor imagery indicates mid and lower level moisture
approaching the area from the west along an associated trough. This
will bring a return of the humidity albeit not to the same extent as
such that prompted the Heat Advisories last week. Heat indices are
expected to be around 103-105F today, so continue to use caution if
outdoors for extended periods. The afternoon sea breeze will help
initiate some onshore thunderstorms, although they still look to be
confined along the coast and generally east of Galveston. Per usual,
these will taper off around sunset. The aforementioned trough will
track eastward overnight. Although the timing is unfavorable, the
wave/vort max is potent enough that a few weak storms will be
possible in our northern counties overnight where the greatest
associated forcing will be present. As such, some mentionable 10%
PoPs have been added for this time period. With the moist air
returning along with the usual daytime instability, PoPs have also
been increased in this same area for the afternoon hours, before
ending in the evening.

The forecast remains on track for the rest of the week. The overall
pattern will bring hot and humid conditions during the day with
isolated-to-scattered sea breeze initiated diurnal thunderstorms.
These look to become less prevalent towards the end of the week as
an upper ridge builds over the area and subsequently brings stronger
capping. Temperatures will slightly cool by the end of the week as
well, but still remain a few degrees above average for this time of
year, generally in the low-to-mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Current satellite shows a FEW/SCT cumulus field developing across
the area, at around 2500-3500 ft. VFR conditions prevail at all TAF
sites with light and VRB winds. Winds increase later this afternoon
to the 5-10 KT range and become SE. There is a slight chance for
showers/thunderstorms this afternoon offshore and along the coast,
though probabilities are too low to mention in this TAF cycle.
Tonight, winds become light and variable once again. A boundary
currently over central TX meanders east overnight, and may bring
some showers to the NW part of the CWA late tonight/early tomorrow
morning. It is uncertain whether the boundary will make it to KCLL,
so any mention of precip is not included in the TAF. For the
northern TAF sites, including KUTS and KCXO, patchy fog may develop
around sunrise tomorrow morning and briefly reduce visibility.
Otherwise, VFR conditions persist thru the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Southeast winds peaking around 10 kts are expected today and Monday.
These will back to northeasterly Tuesday and veer due easterly
Wednesday/Thursday sustained at 15-20 kts, before slightly
diminishing thereafter. Seas of 1 to 4 ft will persist, highest on
Thursday afternoon. Isolated-to-scattered coastal and offshore
thunderstorms are expected each day, slightly tapering off towards
the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  97  75  97 /  10  30  20  10
Houston (IAH)  78  95  78  97 /   0  10   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  83  90  82  91 /  10  20   0  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AP
AVIATION...MLG
MARINE...AP

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion