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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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044
FXUS64 KHGX 020602
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1202 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty northerly winds and elevated seas will lead to hazardous
  marine conditions through Tuesday afternoon as a coastal low
  crosses the northwestern Gulf.

- Chillier weather will persist through Wednesday with overnight lows
  in the 30s to lower 40s with portions of the Piney Woods
  possibly dropping to near freezing.

- Rain chances return Wednesday night through Friday morning due
  to another coastal low and incoming cold front with the greatest
  coverage of the showers and isolated thunderstorms likely
  remaining along the coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1005 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

After Monday`s departing system to the east, we will be
experiencing a fairly chilly night across SE Texas with low
temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 30s across most of the
area (and even some spots in the Piney Woods dropping to near
freezing). Tuesday will be on the cooler side again with highs
only in the low to mid 50s as a surface high pressure settles in
over the area, but it will feel better than today with most sunny
skies. With clear skies and light winds, Tuesday night will be
another chilly one with temperatures similar to tonight, albeit
possible a degree or two warmer.

That high pressure moves on to the east on Wednesday ushering in a
southerly flow allowing for high temperatures to climb into the
mid 60s to low 70s across the area. Increasing moisture from the
southerly flow and passing shortwaves in the southwesterly flow
aloft will lead to an increase in shower activity Wednesday night
through at least Friday morning. Lingering shower activity may
linger through the day on Friday. It will be a similar set- up to
Monday`s event with widespread light to moderate rainfall with
isolated thunderstorms. WPC does include an area of Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall along the northern portions
of the coast on Thursday. Most likely impact would be some minor
flooding of low lying, poor drainage areas.

A cold front will push through late Friday into Saturday ushering
in a return to cooler and drier conditions through the weekend. As
of now, it will likely not be as cold as Monday-Tuesday, but low
temperatures back into the 30s-40s will be possible over the
weekend.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 528 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Scattered SHRA, low cigs, and occasionally reduced vis will
continue through this evening. Drier air will filter in tonight as
northerly winds increase. Gusts over 20 knots possible late
tonight into tomorrow morning. Vis/cigs should improve overnight,
with most, if not all, areas VFR by tomorrow morning. VFR then
prevails through the rest of tomorrow as northerly winds
eventually decrease.




&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1005 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Hazardous marine conditions are expected through at least the
first half of Tuesday as strong north to northeasterly winds
develop behind a departing coastal low. Winds along the coast have
already climbed to sustained 20-25kt with gusts to 30-35kt, and
these conditions are likely to continue through Tuesday morning
along the immediate coast, and through Tuesday afternoon along the
offshore waters. Rough bay waters and seas of 5-8ft are expected
during this time as well. Due to these conditions a Small Craft
Advisory is in effect through Tuesday morning along the coast, and
then into Tuesday afternoon in the offshore waters. Abnormally
low tides are expected Tuesday morning (around 0.0 to 0.5ft below
MLLW), and a low water advisory may be needed in future updates.

Conditions will improve Tuesday night into Wednesday with light to
occasionally moderate east to southeasterly winds. Another
approaching upper-level disturbance will bring increasing chances
of widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday night
through Friday evening. A coastal low is expected to develop on
Thursday inducing moderate to strong northeasterly winds Thursday
morning through Friday morning.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  34  54  38  61 /  10   0   0  20
Houston (IAH)  38  56  41  66 /  40   0   0  20
Galveston (GLS)  44  58  52  71 /  50   0   0  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for GMZ350-355.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Fowler

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion