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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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528
FXUS64 KHGX 172314
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
614 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure remains in control through the week, resulting in
  dry and warmer conditions with light southerly winds.

- A significant warming trend Friday into the weekend. Some
  locations may see the first 90-degree days of the year.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

We started off very cool this morning with temperatures as low as 25
degF across portions of Houston County, and in the upper 20s to low
30s generally areas north of I-10. Surface high pressure continues
to dominate the weather today with light winds and dry conditions. A
few high clouds will continue to stream southeastward across the
region in response to some vorticity maxima/shortwaves aloft.
Precipitation is not expected. A tranquil and cold night is
anticipated, though it won`t be as cold as early this morning.
Overnight lows will be in the 40s inland and in the 50s along the
islands.

A mid to upper level ridge will amplify over the southwestern CONUS
late tonight into Wednesday, dominating the pattern for the rest of
the workweek. This pattern will result in dry weather with a gradual
warming trend into the weekend. By Friday into Sunday, this ridge of
high pressure will expand eastward, bringing the ingredients for
well-above average temperatures. Westerly to southwesterly flow
aloft, combined with south to southwest surface flow will keep
warmer conditions across Southeast Texas. In fact, 850 mb
temperatures will rise into the upper teens to low 20s degC Friday
and Saturday. Both, NAEFS and GEFS show 850 mb temperatures close to
the 99.5th percentile of climatology for areas west of I-45. This
gives us increasing confidence in surface high pressure in the upper
80s to low 90s. If this forecast verifies, it will be the first 90-
degree temperatures of the year. This is early, as
climatologically speaking, in average we see the first 90-degree
days in late April (CLL) or early May (IAH). We`ll continue to
monitor this trend as temperatures may be near or breaking records
Friday and/or Saturday.

A dominant upper-level ridge and surface high pressure will continue
to block incoming strong frontal systems. Therefore, we can expect
little to no rainfall over the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

VFR for the next 30+ hours with just some passing few-sct high
clouds at times. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Benign marine conditions with light to occasionally moderate
easterly winds and low seas. Surface high pressure will continue to
move east of the region today, resulting in south to southwest winds
tonight that will persist through the rest of the week. Winds may
become moderate at times this weekend. Little to no rain is
anticipated over the next 7 days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Despite weaker surface winds, dry weather continues today, leading
to minimum relative humidity in the upper teens to low 20s inland
and in the 30s along the coast. The Texas A&M Forest Service
suggests high to very high fire danger today for most of the region.
Use extreme caution with any outdoor burning, especially around the
Matagorda/Palacios areas. Conditions will gradually improve through
the week as southerly flow brings higher relative humidity values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  42  77  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  46  76  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  54  69  62  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Low Water Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ335.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...47
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion