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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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197
FXUS64 KHGX 140528
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1228 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and humid conditions continue today with scattered showers
  and storms possible west of I-45. Overall chances decline on
  Thursday.

- A cold front pushes through the region on Friday, bringing a
  chance of coastal showers/storms, gusty north winds, and much
  cooler conditions to the region this weekend.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected in the wake of the front.
  Small Craft Advisories are likely, and potential gale
  conditions are trending upward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

GOES Total PW loop and model data is showing the leading edge of some
drier air currently making its way westward into LA...which should
track into SE TX today. Before that drier air fully moves in, it
appears western parts of the region, say west of a Madisonville-
Matagorda Bay line, should see some sct shower and isolated tstm
activity develop as we get some daytime heating. Overall chances
of precipitation will be lowest east of the I-45 corridor. Thursday
looks mostly dry and warm with lower PW air in place along with
mid level ridging.

Mid-upper trof across the Desert Southwest will track eastward
into the Plains in the coming days. As its associated surface low
forms near the Texas Panhandle and moves northeast toward the
Ohio Valley, we`ll see a relatively strong 1036-1042 mb surface
ridge sink southward through the central CONUS and bring our much
awaited cold front into the region. A northerly wind shift is
anticipated during the morning hours, though the much drier and
cooler air will lag a bit...becoming much more noticeable in the
late afternoon and nighttime hours. In terms of rain potential in
advance of the boundary, moisture recovery in advance of the
boundary will be limited, though incoming deterministic guidance
is trying to indicate some low chances...probably right along the
convergent zone. NBM is showing near zero POPs, but I`m going to
throw in some 20%`ers well inland. Closer to the coast, and
especially offshore, there should be enough moisture to work with
to go with some higher POPs (compliments of a weak easterly wave
across the western Gulf) .

Breezy north winds are expected in the wake of the front through
Saturday. Weekend temperatures look very nice (50s/70s). I wouldn`t
be overly surprised if some northern locations don`t make it above
70F on Saturday and fall into the 40s at night. Time will tell.

Surface high pressure moves off to the east early next week, and
look for a gradual warming trend to ensue. Clouds and coastal rain
chances will trend upward Monday afternoon-Wednesday as Gulf moisture
gets drawn into the region along the northern periphery of another
easterly wave tracking westward across the southern Gulf. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

A few showers persisting on radar tonight with minimal impacts to
terminals expected. MVFR/IFR CIGs expected to develop around 06Z.
Improvement to VFR expected to occur by mid to late morning.
Winds will be light out of the SE during the overnight hours into
Wednesday morning. SE winds increase across all terminals
Wednesday afternoon with gusts to around 20-22 knots at times. A
few showers with embedded TS may occur west of the I-45 corridor
during the morning into afternoon hours. Activity will wane off
towards sunset.

Bailey

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Moderate onshore winds and 3 to 5 foot seas will prevail for the
next couple of days. The primary weather concern this week is a
cold front that is expected to push offshore on Friday. Once the
cooler air in the front`s wake arrives and moves over the warmer
coastal waters, especially Friday night and Saturday, look for a
substantial increase in north winds and building seas. Small
Craft Advisories are likely. Probabilities for some gale
conditions have been trending upward late Friday night and
Saturday. Winds/seas begin to gradually subside Saturday night
and Sunday. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  91  69  91  66 /  50   0   0  20
Houston (IAH)  91  72  89  70 /  20   0  20  20
Galveston (GLS)  88  78  88  75 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion