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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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618
FXUS64 KHGX 131057
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
557 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler, drier conditions persist over the next couple of days
  with tonight into Friday morning being our coolest night in over
  two weeks.

- A gradual warming trend is expected Friday into the weekend,
  with highs reaching the 80s by Sunday.

- Another cooldown is expected after the next cold frontal
  passage, which will be accompanied by showers/storms late
  Sunday. Strong storms are possible ahead and along the cold
  front.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected in the wake of the front
  through Monday: strong northerly winds (gusting to 40+ kt),
  elevated seas (8-13 ft), and potential for negative tides.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Cool and dry conditions will prevail tonight with clear skies and
light variable winds. The lows overnight will range in the lower
to mid 40s over the inland portions and the mid 40s to lower 50s
over the Houston Metro and areas near the coasts. Fair weather
conditions will persist on Friday, but southerly flow is to return
and will begin a warming trend through the weekend. The high
temperatures will be in the 70s on Friday and the upper to lower
80s on Saturday. As moisture increases over the region, we will
see a higher chance for patchy to locally dense fog mainly for
Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Our next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be sometime
late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night as a mid-upper level trough
deepens over the Plains early Sunday and a cold front moves
across Southeast Texas. Moisture convergence along with south to
southwesterly winds at around 15 to 20 mph is expected ahead of
the cold front on Sunday. This will lead to very warm conditions
that day, with highs peaking in the mid to upper 80s. Thus, be
prepared for the heat if you plan to work or spend time outdoors
on Sunday. For beachgoers, make sure to verify the beach flags
given that there may be strong rip currents developing.

Seeing how much the NBM has changed tonight compared to yesterday
with our PoPs for Sunday, my confidence is still low with respect
to the exact timing and coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
But to give you a general idea, models have the front moving
through Southeast TX very quickly on Sunday evening (from College
Station to the coastal waters in about 5-6 hours). At this time
the heaviest shower and thunderstorm activity should be ahead and
along the front during the evening to early night hours and some
storms may have the potential for strong winds. Instability does
increase by early afternoon and we will be heating up into the
upper 80s...depending on how much moisture it will have to work
with, I wouldn`t rule out isolated showers and thunderstorms
starting to develop during the afternoon hours as well. We will
have to keep an eye on how the environment sets up as these storms
develop, including wind shear speeds. There`s the potential for a
southwesterly llvl jet of 35-50 knots overhead on Sunday ahead of
the front. SPC has placed a 15% probability of Severe Weather for
the Piney Woods region for Sunday, but may be expanded in the
next day or so. Stay tuned for more details.

Rain chances end in the wake of the front as dry cool air moves
in. Strong gusty winds are expected to develop as a northerly
40-60 knot llvl jet pushes through right behind the cold front. We
could see northerly winds of 20-30 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph
(highest speeds will likely be over the coastal locations). Wind
Advisories may be needed. Winds relax Monday afternoon with cooler
conditions and highs in the 50s for most of the region. Fair
weather prevails through mid week with another warming trend as
southerly winds quickly return Tuesday.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 557 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail throughout the day with
southerly to southeasterly winds picking up to around 10 kt later
this morning lasting thru the afternoon. Winds decrease below 5 kt
after sunset for most locations. Some model guidance indicates
the potential for reduced ceilings and visibilities overnight into
Saturday morning for the northern terminals (CXO and northward).

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Winds will veer from east to the southeast overnight. Light to
moderate onshore flow will continue into the weekend. Seas will be
2-3 feet through Saturday night, building on Sunday as winds
increase before a strong cold front pushes offshore Sunday night.
There`s the potential for strong rip currents to develop on
Sunday.

Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop ahead and along the
cold front, followed by strong north winds of 30-35 knots with
gusts of 40-45 knots along with seas of 8-13 feet in the wake of
the front Sunday night through Monday. Gale force winds are
expected in the wake of this front. Small Craft Advisories and/or
Gale Warnings will be likely. Low water levels along the bays is
also possible. Winds and seas gradually decrease Monday night into
Tuesday. Expect light onshore winds Tuesday into the end of the
work week.

Cotto

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Friday will be fairly dry again with afternoon RH values in the
35 to 45 percent range inland and the 45 to 55 percent range along
the coasts. Expect south to southeasterly winds at around 10 mph.
Expect rising RH values through the weekend. Another surge of dry
air can be expected early in the new week after another frontal
passage on Sunday.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  51  80  61 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  77  55  80  65 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  71  64  74  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cotto
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion