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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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301
FXUS64 KHGX 092330
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably hot conditions will continue today as daytime highs
  will be in the mid 90s with heat indices reaching the triple
  digits.

- Lower chances of rain today. Isolated to scattered seabreeze
  showers and thunderstorms are possible closer to the coast.

- Deep Gulf moisture will arrive Friday morning causing rain
  chances to increase Friday and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

A drier airmass prevails today as shown by Water Vapor and the
Blended Total Precip Water satellite imagery. Dry air (particularly
inland) and mid-level stability are effectively capping most
convective development this afternoon. However, cannot rule out
isolated to scattered, sea breeze showers and storms mainly along
and south of I-10 through early this evening.

Heading into Friday, the pattern begins to shift. As the ridge of
high pressure amplifies over the Rockies and Plains, a weak mid-
level trough will track westward across the western Gulf, sliding
along the southern TX coast. This setup will usher in a deep surge
of tropical moisture across the region, with PW values in the 1.9-
2.1 inch range. This will result in widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend, with rain and storms developing
along the coast late at night into the morning. Then spreading
inland late morning through the afternoon. As Southeast TX sits on
the southern periphery of the broad high pressure ridge, the region
will remain vulnerable to shortwaves/vorticity maxes aloft tracking
westward underneath the ridge. Therefore, expect a return to a more
active, mostly diurnally-driven, convective period. This wet pattern
will settle in for the weekend and persist through at least the
first half of next week. Have PoPs around 40 to 70% through this
period. Localized heavy downpours and strong gusty winds will be
possible with any stronger storms.

Temperatures will generally remain in the low to mid 90s during the
day, and will be warm and muggy at night with overnight lows in the
upper 70s to low 80s. Peak heat indices in the triple digits (100-
107F) can be expected each afternoon. A slight relief from the heat
will be possible early next week as cloud cover and rain chances
could potentially result in high temperatures in the mid 80s to low
90s, which is a few degrees below normal for this time of year.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Elevated and gusty winds due to lingering showers and
thunderstorms should decrease by this evening. Winds remain light
overnight, and pick back up tomorrow morning. Generally, winds
are out of the S/SSE through the TAF period. A first round of
showers/thunderstorms is expected to arrive near the coast
tomorrow morning and gradually push inland, mainly effecting sites
south of I-10. A second, and stronger, round of
showers/thunderstorms is expected to arrive tomorrow afternoon and
persist through the evening. This second round of storms looks to
be more widespread, effecting most TAF sites; although, it is
uncertain whether storms will push as far north as KCLL and KUTS.
Gusty and erratic winds, along with reductions in VIS/CIG could
accompany any afternoon storms that pop up. Convective activity
should subside by late tomorrow evening.

MLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas will continue
tonight, and persist well into the upcoming week. Seas will
generally remain 1-3 ft. Winds and seas will occasionally
increase/build Friday into the weekend, resulting in periods of
Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions. Rain and storm chances will
be on the increase Friday into the weekend, with the best chances
overnight through early afternoons. Elevated winds and seas will be
possible near any stronger storms.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  95  78  95 /  10  30  10  30
Houston (IAH)  79  94  79  94 /  10  30  20  60
Galveston (GLS)  84  90  85  90 /  20  50  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...MLG
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion