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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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042
FXUS64 KHGX 120613
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1213 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming up today into this weekend with lights showers
  possible.

- Patches to Areas of fog/sea fog possible today through Saturday
ahead of a cold front.

- Cold front moves off the coast on Sunday with cooler weather into
next week. Freezing temps possible early Monday morning over the
north/northeastern cwa.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1202 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Southerly flow and WAA will keep the warming trend in place for
today and portions of the weekend. Highs during this period will
reach the upper 60s/mid 70s, though early morning lows will still
lean on the cool side in the mid 40s/lower 60s. A few light showers
could develop during this period, mainly near the coast due to a
combination of WAA and a passing midlevel shortwave. More notably,
we may see some periods of sea fog develop over the bays/nearshore
waters, along with radiation fog inland during the overnight/early
morning hours.

Current marine obs show 60s dewpoints at KGLS, ahead of some CAMs,
which anticipate that this deeper moisture will reach the upper bays
later this morning. With this, we`ll certainly have a modest chance
for patches/areas of sea fog this morning over the bays/nearshore
waters. Inland fog is already developing over Victoria this
morining, and those areas of fog will likely expand into SE Texas
later this morning. Coverage will be greatest west of I-45, which is
most likely to see a dense fog advisory. Fog should burn off during
the day inland, though we could see some hazy conditions looming
over the nearshore waters/Galveston bay this afternoon. Tonight into
Saturday morning has the strongest signal for sea fog across the
bays/nearshore waters in the forecast, so mariners may see some of
the worst impacts from sea fog during this period. Saturday night
into the early morning hours of Sunday will also be a particularly
interesting time frame to watch with respect to sea fog as well, due
to pooling moisture and easing winds leading up to a cold front. The
cold front is still slated to push off the coast Sunday morning, so
there will be plenty of time for fog to develop prior to it`s
arrival earlier in the morning. Though, rising water temperatures
and mixing from showers may limit the extent of sea fog by that
point. Ensemble fog probabilities are lower, which seem to reflect
this idea, though again I wouldn`t rule out the possibility for
areas of dense fog Saturday night into early Sunday.

Sunday should see cooler and drier weather in the wake of the cold
front. Monday remains the coldest period in the forecast with
temperatures early in the morning dropping into the upper 20s/30s to
lower 40s near the coast. A few more spots over SE Texas could see
their first freeze of the season as well. During the daytime, highs
for Monday should top out in the 50s/lower 60s. High pressure moves
off the east and once again we get onshore flow Monday afternoon
with WAA and moisture advection in full swing again by Tuesday. Rain
chances return for Tuesday and increase through mid next week. We`ll
also need to watch out for sea fog along the coast Wednesday and
onwards, though the extent will depend on how much water
temperatures cool with the next front and warm thereafter.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1106 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Stratus beginning to develop around the area, mainly impacting
from IAH coastward for now. No fog at TAF sites yet, but farther
down the coast, VCT has come down to 3/4SM. Expectation remains
that flight conditions will continue to degrade through the night,
though the details will likely need to be adjusted based on the
specific evolution of the night.

Conditions should begin to improve within a few hours of sunrise,
and gradually return to VFR for the afternoon. It is beyond the
scope of this cycle, but eventually will have to deal with the
return of degraded flight conditions late Friday night, and the
onset of some rain chances Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1202 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Winds have shifted onshore, enabling moisture return now into the
weekend. We`ll have to keep an eye out for sea fog across the
nearshore waters and bays this morning. Some hazy conditions may
linger in the bays/nearshore waters during the day. Tonight into
Saturday morning is the current time frame where sea fog conditions
are most optimal, though water temperatures warming just a tad could
inhibit sea fog development. If water temperatures are very slow to
recover, the worst of the sea fog may extend through Saturday night
into Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Small Craft
Advisories are likely on Sunday behind the front. Winds and seas
decrease on Monday with winds shifting onshore early on Tuesday. By
Wednesday, we`ll have to once again keep and eye out for sea fog
over the nearshore bays & gulf waters.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  72  59  74  51 /   0  10  10  20
Houston (IAH)  74  61  75  57 /   0  10  30  30
Galveston (GLS)  71  63  70  58 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion