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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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705
FXUS64 KHGX 192307
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
607 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather and above-normal temperatures will persist, along
  side a 30 to 55 percent chance of patchy fog in the nighttime
  and early mornings.

- A strengthening mid to upper level ridge will bring even hotter
  conditions Friday through Sunday with temperatures potentially
  reaching record-breaking values (including the first 90-degree
  days of the year at some locations).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Dry conditions will persist through the weekend and well into
next week, as the region remains under the influence of a potent
592-596 dam mid to upper level ridge centered over the
southwestern CONUS/Four Corners area. At the surface, the
proximity of high pressure to our east will maintain a steady,
warm southerly flow. As we progress into the weekend, this ridge
will expand eastward, further increasing large-scale subsidence
across the local area. Confidence is moderate to high for an
unseasonably hot weekend. Model guidance remains consistent,
showing 850 mb temperatures exceeding the 99.7th percentile of
climatology for Friday into Sunday. This setup will likely push
surface temperatures near or above record-breaking values for this
time of year. In fact, some locations may see the first 90-degree
day of the year. Another weather feature we cannot forget is fog.
Light winds with a slight uptick in low-level moisture may be
enough to develop patchy to areas of fog early in the mornings
(Thursday into Sunday at least). Model guidance (HREF and REFS)
shows probabilities of any fog of 30 to 55 percent each morning.

The upper-level pattern begins to shift early next week as the ridge
flattens. This will allow a weak cold front to sag southward;
however current indications suggest this front will either stall or
wash out entirely over the region. Therefore, we do not anticipate
significant impacts from this FROPA.

Given the persistent southerly surface flow and the lingering
influence of the ridge aloft, above-normal temperatures are expected
to continue through next week. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Lows
in the 60s.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR this evening, though it should be noted there are some
controlled burns across the area that could make for some hazy
skies near some terminals for the next several hours (ie UTS, and
any smaller airports in Trinity/Houston Counties). Otherwise,
we`ll be keeping an eye out for some shallow late night fog
development. Coverage should be highest, and visibility lowest,
west of I-45 and along and south of I-10 between about 9-13z. Fog
should burn off fairly quickly after sunrise and after some
SCT010/020 cloud decks in the mid morning, we`ll see skies go
mostly sunny again for the remainder of Saturday with SSW winds
increasing to 10-15kt. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 124 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Dry weather with light to occasionally moderate onshore winds (S
to SSE) and low seas will be the main weather features over the
next seven days. Seas will slightly build up to 4 ft through the
weekend, but overall, expect seas ranging from 2 to 3 ft. Little
to no rain is expected. Patchy fog will be possible overnight into
the early mornings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  55  88  58  91 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  60  86  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  66  75  66  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...47
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion