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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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811
FXUS64 KHGX 060521
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1221 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to widespread storms are anticipated again on Sunday.

- Though isolated to scattered precipitation is expected on a
  daily basis during the early and mid parts of next week, overall
  areal coverage should be a bit less...and we`ll see some warmer
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have dissipated for the night, but the
break is expected to be short-lived as an upper-level low
approaches and deep moisture continues to filter in. Hi-Res models
suggest a few showers could develop along the coast and in the
Gulf Waters during the early morning hours. Expect activity to
spread inward and become more scattered to widespread in coverage
through the day, with thunderstorms developing as daytime heating
kicks in this afternoon. With the abundant moisture still
overhead and light winds aloft, some storms could be slow moving
and produce locally heavy rainfall, leading to isolated instances
of flooding.

Ridging will build back in early in the work-week, bringing hotter
conditions and a decrease in rain chances compared to this past
week. Daily isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible and will be largely diurnally driven through mid-week.
Highs during this time will reach into the low to mid-90s inland,
with heat indices in the 102-109F range.

A few of the global models continue to suggest increasing chances
of showers and thunderstorms near the end of the week as a weak
mid-level disturbance approaches from the Gulf. There is variation
among the models with regard to strength and timing of the
disturbance; however, models and ensemble guidance both suggest an
uptick in moisture during this time frame. Currently the highest
probabilities for precipitation reside over the coastal counties
and Gulf waters, particularly during the afternoon hours. This
pattern appears to stay through the weekend.

Bailey

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Winds continue to become LGT and VRB with VFR conditions as the
night progress. The chance for BR in low-lying areas and fields does
remain, with the signal still not strong enough to include at the
terminals. Increased moisture along with the arrival of the sea
breeze brings the chance for showers starting in the late-morning.
Day time heating allows for similar convective development as
previous days. Thus, tempo groups have been added further north as
the agreement for a deeper inland sea breeze and timing continues to
develop. Convection and lingering showers are expected to
dissipate by the evening with the loss of daytime heating. The
prevailing SSE breeze continues along with VFR conditions outside
of any convection that does develop.

CMW

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the
Upper Texas Coast this weekend into next week. These storms will
be capable of producing heavy downpours as well as frequent
lightning and erratic winds. Building seas will also be possible
near stronger storms. Otherwise, expect light to occasionally
moderate onshore winds with 2-3 foot seas to prevail through late
next week

Bailey

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  95  75  97  76 /  40   0  20  10
Houston (IAH)  94  78  95  78 /  50  10  40  10
Galveston (GLS)  91  82  91  83 /  50  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...CMW
MARINE...Bailey

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion