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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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612
FXUS64 KHGX 220016
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
616 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and windy this evening and overnight, with the strongest
gusts along the coast and over the Gulf waters.

- Slightly cooler conditions Sunday and Monday. Near freezing low
temperatures possible Sunday night into Monday.

- A warming trend is expected after Tuesday with highs generally
  into the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

We`ll finally start to see more sun than clouds after the passage of
today`s cold front. Early this afternoon, the front extended along
and north of a line from Palacios (PSX), Angleton (LBX) and
Beaumont(BPT); it will continue to move off the coast over the next
couple of hours. A drier airmass, accompanied by strong north winds
will begin to filter in behind the front. Gusts as high as 25 to 30
mph are expected this evening and tonight with the strongest gusts
occurring along the beaches and over coastal waters.

In addition to the windy conditions, we continue to monitor fire
weather. With afternoon relative humidity dropping into the 20% to
30% range, a moderate to high fire danger is possible; particularly
across our western counties through this evening. Cold air advection
and mostly clear skies will result in a chilly night. Lows will
generally range from the upper 30s (far inland) to the upper 40s
(Houston metro and coastal zones).

An upper level ridge is building across the Rockies/Plains, while
surface high pressure builds over TX through early next week,
bringing drier and more pleasant conditions. Plenty of sunshine,low
humidity and breezy north winds are on tap for the region on Sunday
with highs mainly in the mid 60s. A similar forecast is anticipated
for Monday, though winds will remain lighter.

Return flow from the departing high will bring temperatures back to
near seasonal levels by Tuesday. A warming trend is expected for the
remainder of the week as the upper ridge breaks down, pushing an
upper wave across the Midwest and Great Lakes region; and developing
surface lee cyclogenesis across southern Plains. This pattern will
keep the region under as southerly surface winds regime, resulting
in warmer conditions and an uptick in Gulf moisture through the end
of the week. A FROPA will be possible toward the end of the week;
however, confidence in precipitation chances remain moderate as
higher chances fall further northeast of the area. As of now, the
forecast remains dry for the rest of the long-term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 604 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

VFR. Main hazard for the 00Z TAF issuance is strong, gusty winds
developing after today`s FROPA. N winds will range between 12-18
KTS with gusts between 22-28 KTS for many inland areas and
between 18-25 KTS with gusts between 25-30 KTS for the coastal
locations (LBX/GLS). Periods of llvl wind shear of 35-40 KTS is
also possible, mainly from 03-12Z. Winds will relax to 10 KTS or
less Sun evening.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 144 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

A cold front will be move across the Gulf waters this afternoon and
evening, ushering in strong northerly winds in its wake. Gusts of
approximately 25 to 35 kt can be expected from this evening through
early Sunday. A Gale Warning is in effect for Matagorda Bay and all
Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for Galveston Bay
where gusts up to 30 kts are expected. While near gale-force gusts
cannot be ruled out across Galveston Bay, winds should remain
between 20 to 30 knots most of the time. In addition to the wind,
building seas from 5 to 10 ft (occasionally higher) can be expected
through Sunday. Winds will gradually weaken by Sunday as high
pressure builds over Texas. We`ll continue to monitor water levels
across the bays as P-ETSS suggests levels near -0.5 MLLW during low
tides through Monday. Onshore winds return by Tuesday as the high
pressure shifts to our east. Winds may become moderate to strong at
times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  39  62  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  46  64  41  64 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  51  63  47  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Gale Warning until 6 AM CST Sunday for GMZ330-350-355-370-375.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for GMZ335.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion