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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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344
FXUS64 KHGX 031820
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1220 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm weather will continue through this week.

- Some isolated/scattered precip from time-to-time, mostly light
  and insignificant, during the work week...but chances further
  increase this weekend.

- Sea fog has become dense again tonight, and is expected to pose
  hazard to navigation into Tuesday morning. There is potential
  for further fog nightly for at least the next couple of nights.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1220 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Low level ridging stretching across the Atlantic into the
western Gulf will maintain a persistent fetch of se/s winds across
the region. This onshore flow will keep unseasonably warm
temperatures in place across the region going into the weekend
with lows in the 60s and highs in the 80s.

In terms of rainfall potential: though PW`s will be on a gradual
climb, there`s not much in the way of forcing during the work week.
Trof/shortwave currently situated over the Rockies, will weaken
and track newd on Wed. Its associated surface frontal boundary
won`t come close to making it into or close to our region...so
other than some spotty shra (and maybe an iso tstm or two west of
I-45 and the Brazos Valley), most of us will be lucky to see any
measurable rain. We should see a deeper western trof emerge later
in the week. With this particular system, a cold front will try
its best to move closer, or into, northern parts of the CWA this
weekend. Given that we should see the southern part of the mid-
upper trof cut-off and retrograde toward Baja, it`s looking
doubtful the front will have enough momentum to push further
south to the coast without some mesoscale help. But, that`s not
impossible with higher PW`s pooling along and south of the the
surface boundary, a series of upper disturbances in the sw flow
aloft, and somewhat diffluent flow further up. This scenario
should provide opportunities for shra/tstm development both
Saturday and Sunday. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 516 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

IFR to MVFR ceilings are expected to continue through around 15Z,
lifting and scattering out by late morning or early afternoon
hours. winds have been strong enough to keep dense fog from
developing over our inland site, however, sea fog over Galveston
Bay and the adjacent nearshore waters and has reduced
visibilities to around 1/2 mile for GLS. Conditions are expected
to gradually improve throughout the morning hours.

SE winds today will strengthen to 12-18 KTS this afternoon with
gusts of up to 25 KTS at times. Winds will relax to 5-10 KTS later
in the evening. We will likely see a rinse and repeat for tonight
into Wed morning, with ceilings lower back to the IFR-MVFR
categories.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1220 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Onshore winds. generally in the 10-17kt range and 3-5ft seas,
will prevail into the weekend. There will probably be some periods
of haze and sea fog over the waters as well, though any dense fog
should mainly be situated closer to the beach and offshore hours
and should be intermittent in nature...primarily in the night time
and early morning hours.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  67  83  67  85 /  10  50  20  10
Houston (IAH)  69  83  68  84 /  20  20   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  66  73  67  73 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion