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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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362
FXUS64 KHGX 071052
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
552 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing heat risk is expected through the coming week.

- Chances of isolated showers and thunderstorms continue through
  Monday.

- High risk of rip currents will persist through at least Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A pattern change is starting to settle in as upper level closed
low around the Texas Panhandle moves northeast into the Great
Plains and weak ridging start building into Texas. While this will
help decrease the chances of showers and storms and generally
limit it to the more typical seabreeze summertime afternoon
convection, persistent southerly to southeasterly flow will
continue to pump moisture in the area. So any stronger storm will
still have potential to produce high rainfall rates. However, the
overall threat of heavy rainfall and flooding potential has
diminished. Just cannot completely rule out a spot of two getting
street flooding or ponding of water especially in the harder hit
areas the past few days.

Heat will become the biggest concern for this week. Highs will
start around normal for this time of the year with high
temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. But by mid to late this
week, it will be above normal with highs in mid 90s by Saturday.
In addition, low temperatures will hover right around the upper
70s to 80s so there will not be a lot of relief at night either.
Adding humidity into the mix will have heat index values of around
100 early this week climbing into the mid to upper 100s by late
this week. If the heating trend continues on track this week, there
is potential for needing heat advisories by the weekend.
Rip currents still remain a concern for much of this week as the
onshore flow is forecasted to remain through the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Widespread MVFR ceilings are present early this morning along with
isolated showers. Expect the MVFR ceilings to continue through at
least the mid-morning hours with coverage of showers and the
development of thunderstorms later this morning into the
afternoon. The highest confidence for thunderstorm activity will
generally be north of IAH. Terminals near and south of I-10
(except for SGR) will retain a PROB30 or VCSH as the thunderstorm
potential is lower. Southerly winds will be gusty today with
sustained winds around 10-15 kt with gusts in the 20-25 kt range
through the afternoon.

Shower/storm coverage decreases after 00Z, but lingering light
rain is anticipated along the coast late in the afternoon and into
the evening. Expect MVFR to IFR ceilings to develop late this
evening into Monday morning.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Onshore winds will continue for the the next week. Winds current
are around small craft exercise caution criteria so flags have
been issued for today. Additionally the winds will oscillate in
and out of small craft exercise caution criteria during the week.
Isolated showers and storms will be possible early this week but
chances decrease as the week goes on.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  86  75  90  74 /  50  10  10   0
Houston (IAH)  88  78  90  76 /  20  10  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  88  83  87  82 /  20  20  20   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Monday morning for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BL
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...BL

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion