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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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302
FXUS64 KHGX 181012
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
512 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and dry this weekend.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected with elevated winds/seas
  through tonight. Slowly improving conditions are anticipated
  throughout Sunday.

- Warmer temperatures return next week, but just seasonable in
  nature.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Inland winds have finally relaxed behind the front to be out of the
N around 5-10 mph. As is typical for the first significant cold
front of the season, our marine regions aren`t out of the woods
quite yet. Winds remain elevated over our waters tonight requiring a
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM then transitioning to Small Craft
Exercise Caution until 7 PM Sunday. Likewise, a High Rip Current
Risk is in effect until Sunday morning. By the afternoon, wind
concerns are mostly dissipated region-wide, with light NE winds
turning easterly during the day on Sunday. Temperatures are in the
low-mid 70s with lows in the upper 40s for our northernmost
counties and lower 60s along the coast. Overall, we`ll wrap up our
weekend cool, dry, and mostly sunny.

As high pressure continues settling in to the NE and flow becomes
largely out of the east, temperatures will slowly climb throughout
the workweek. By Thursday, highs will be in the upper 80s with
patches of us in the low 90s. On the bright side, these will be
mostly dry highs, with dew points staying at and below 65. Speaking
of moisture, rain chances are also low throughout the week as our
typical Gulf moisture is pushed mostly to our west, keeping PWATs
between 0.5-1". Tuesday sees a surface trough develop along our
coast, bringing the biggest chance of rain for the week, though
the primary rainfall will be over the waters. By and large, expect
a dry, calm, mostly sunny week with temperatures slowly climbing
in the absence of rain and northerly winds.

BSM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 512 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

VFR conditions prevail with light northerly winds early this
morning becoming east-northeasterly later this morning between
5-10 kt. Winds become light and variable overnight followed by
another round of light east-northeast to east winds on Monday.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Winds remain elevated behind the front, requiring a Small
Craft Advisory until 1 AM Sunday, then a Small Craft Exercise
Caution takes effect until 7pm Sunday. A High Rip Current Risk is
also in effect until 7 AM Sunday. By Sunday afternoon, winds abate
to around 15 kts out of the NE. Our next points of concern are
winds approaching 20 kts out of the E Monday and Tuesday where
seas could elevate to 3-6 ft. Offshore showers are possible Monday
and Tuesday, where locally elevated winds and seas around showers
could occur.

BSM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  73  49  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  74  54  78  57 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  73  67  76  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
     for GMZ335.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for
     GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BSM
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...BSM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion