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155
FXUS64 KHGX 102212
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
512 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers/storms possible this afternoon. A cold front
  will push a line of thunderstorms through SE Texas tonight into
  early Monday.

- Slight Risk of Severe Weather through Monday morning, mainly for
  damaging winds, large hail and heavy downpours.

- Dry and seasonable conditions are expected throughout the
  upcoming workweek with a gradual warm-up by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

With onshore flow back in place, instability is progged to rise this
afternoon leading up to a cold front, which should push through the
area overnight into early Monday morning. This afternoon, ML CAPE
should climb to around 2000-3000 J/KG, possible higher with MU CAPE
upwards of around 4000 J/KG possible. Mid level lapse rates range
from around 6.5-7.5 degC/KM in spots. 6km bulk shear of around 30-40
knots should provide some decent organization for any storms if they
can manage to get started, with cloud layer shear forecasted around
80 knots. SRH should be weak, generally under 100 m2/s2 in the
afternoon with higher LCL heights of around 1400m. Capping should
erode in the afternoon with some locations nearing convective
temperatures. There`s a chance we could see some showers and storms
develop during the afternoon and early evening, though the lack of a
broader lifting mechanism should keep activity isolated at most over
the next few hours.

The severe weather threat becomes much more pronounced later tonight
as a cold front approaches the area, mainly around/after 7 PM. Some
weaker impulses of vorticity could push out ahead of the front,
potentially kicking off some iso-scattered convection ahead of the
main system. The front itself is anticipated to reach the College
Station area by around 9-11 PM tonight, producing a line of
thunderstorms. A positively tilted midlevel shortwave trough will be
pushing across the northern half of the state around this time with
the subtropical jet to it`s south. Some model guidance is showing a
small area of diffluence developing around central/eastern Texas
between these features, which could further enhance lift along the
front itself as it pushes into SE Texas. The environment should
still be fairly potent this late in the evening with DCAPE of 800-
1300 J/KG and LIs of -5 to -8. The potency of the environment will
still decrease into the early morning hours of Monday, but short-
range models have trended slightly more aggressive with this frontal
passage with a fairly extensive, yet broken, line of convection as
it moves off the coast.

SPC has a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe Weather across the
Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area today/early Monday, spanning south
through Livingston and Columbus. A Marginal Risk (level 1/5) extends
further southward to the coast. Damaging winds and hail remain the
primary hazards with these storms, but we cannot rule out the
potential for a brief tornado either. Strong downpours and heavier
rains will be possible in these storms, though brief. With respect
to timing, isolated showers & storms may begin to develop as early
as 3-6 PM. The cold front and line of storms associated with it
should reach College Station around 9-11 PM with storms moving off
the coast around 4-6 AM Monday.

Monday should see breezy, cooler and drier weather as high pressure
fills in behind the cold front. Lingering moisture and the shortwave
passing over the state could bring a few isolated showers, mainly
east of I-45, but otherwise conditions should be much more quiet. A
mid to upper level ridge will also build over the SW/Four Corners
region, ushering in a period of benign weather through the next
several days. This ridge aloft should shift easterly, along with
surface high pressure, allowing onshore winds to return around
Tuesday night. This will allow moisture to rebuild as temperatures
rise through mid week. Highs should be in the upper 70s/80s
(isolated 90s possible) with lows in the 60s/70s. Around Thursday,
the ridge aloft will weaken slightly as vorticity impulses & a
shortwave trough push in from the Great Basin. The ridge itself will
also shift east of the area on Friday, weakening it`s influence over
the area. Still, onshore flow and warm wx should remain in place
through Friday. Rain chances begin to increase Saturday through the
weekend.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 512 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Breezy easterly to southeasterly winds will persist over the next
few hours before trending to become light and variable later this
evening as a frontal boundary and associated showers/storms
approach. Ahead of the front, a brief period of MVFR to IFR
ceilings is expected to spread inland from south to north. GLS is
already experiencing intermittent MVFR ceilings as of 22Z/Sunday.
Some scattered showers have already begun to develop around CXO
and northward late this afternoon. The main line of storms will
begin to push through CLL/UTS just after 00Z, then into the
Houston metro area terminals around 06Z, and off the coast around
10Z. Some of these storms may be strong to severe and capable of
producing strong winds and hail. The timing of these storms has
been covered by TEMPOs in all of the TAFs. The line is anticipated
to become increasingly broken up as it makes its way towards the
coast, so there`s higher potential for strong winds at the
northern terminals along the line.

Behind the front/storms,another brief period of MVFR ceilings is
expected mainly for CXO and northward through the mid-morning
hours of Monday. Northerly to northeasterly winds between 10-15 kt
will prevail throughout the day Monday with widespread VFR
conditions expected by 17Z.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 118 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Light east to southeast winds continue through the rest of the day.
Rain chances are slim this afternoon with only a few sparse storms
further offshore beyond 60nm. A cold front should push off the coast
early Monday morning, bringing a line of showers and thunderstorms
through the bays and Gulf waters. Stronger winds and higher waves
are expected as these storms move off the coast. A few of these
storms could be strong to severe, capable of producing strong wind
gusts upwards of 34 to 50 knots and hail. A short period of elevated
northeast winds should follow the front, reaching 10 to 20 knots
with gusts up to 25 knots. Caution flags may be briefly warranted as
a result. Winds decrease Monday afternoon, shifting southeasterly
Tuesday night. Light onshore winds and calmer seas prevail through
Thursday, increasing on Friday.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  66  79  65  82 /  90  20  10   0
Houston (IAH)  69  83  68  84 /  60  20  20   0
Galveston (GLS)  73  83  72  81 /  60  20  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion