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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

272
FXUS64 KHGX 261206
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
706 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly drier conditions remain over the area through Monday.

- Weak upper level disturbances and increasing Gulf moisture will
  bring low-end chances for showers/storms Tuesday onward.

- Moderate onshore winds and building seas will result in Caution
  conditions over the marine waters through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Benign conditions are expected tonight with light variable winds
and mostly cloudy skies. The lows will be a few degrees warmer
tonight, ranging in the mid 50s over the Piney Woods region, the
upper 50s to mid 60s for the rest of the inland portions, and the
lower 70s along the coast. We could once again see isolated areas
with patchy fog developing during the early morning hours, and
should burn off quickly around sunrise.

Models have backed off a little with tomorrow`s rain chances, and
now places the higher rain chances over Matagorda Bays adjacent
waters. This coincides with my thinking yesterday, where I
mentioned that I think we could still be influenced by the mid to
upper level ridge positioned over Louisiana...enough to keep rain
chances over most of Southeast Texas fairly low. The forecast now
has less than 10% chance of rain for Monday for the majority of
the CWA, accompanied by partly cloudy skies and east winds at 5
to 10 mph. Infrequent gusts of 15 to 20 mph will be possible
closer to the coasts. The highs will generally be in the lower
80s, with isolated spots possibly reaching the mid 80s. Moisture
from the Western Gulf will move in from the Matagorda Bay region
Monday night, keeping skies mostly cloudy overnight. This will
also bring in warmer nighttime temperatures, with lows ranging in
the upper 50s over the Piney Woods region and the lower to upper
60s for the rest of the inland portions.

As an upper level trough moves across the Southern Plains Tuesday
morning, the mid level ridge will continue to progress further east,
into Southeast CONUS. Having less of the ridge influence and a
little more moisture to work with, rain chances will increase,
mainly for areas west of I-45. Under a southeast flow, PWATs will
continue to rise Tuesday night into Wednesday, ranging between 1.3-
1.8 inches and lead to slightly higher chances of showers and
thunderstorms. East winds will briefly return on Thursday along
with drier air, thus, we are not expecting as much rain activity
that day. Advancing into Friday and Saturday, models point out
another healthy surge of moisture moving through the region as a
coastal trough potentially develops along the Texas coast.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 705 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will be
light out of the east-southeast today, becoming light and variable
overnight into Tuesday morning.

Bailey

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Caution Flags remain in effect through Monday night for moderate
east winds and Seas of 4-6 feet, possibly reaching 7 feet
offshore. There is also a moderate to high risk for strong rip
currents along the Gulf facing beaches. Winds relax a bit and seas
subside a foot or two Tuesday into Wednesday. Light to
occasionally moderate east winds and seas between 3-5 feet will
continue through the rest of the week.

Rain chances are expected to return this week as the ridge shifts
east and surface moisture converges over the Western Gulf waters.
Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms most days.
Locally higher winds and seas could occur in and near strong
storms.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  83  60  82  62 /   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)  84  63  82  65 /   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  80  70  80  72 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for
     GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cotto
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion