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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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622
FXUS64 KHGX 201000
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
500 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another temperate and dry day expected today.

- Marine conditions...a long fetch of moderate easterly winds may
  occasionally require intermittent caution or advisory flags.

- Temperatures continue to warm today with the aid of high
  pressure near the surface and an omega blocking pattern in the
  mid/upper levels.

- Rain chances will also generally remain low this week, with
  some slight rain chances near Matagorda/Palacios area this
  afternoon and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

We`re beginning the climb into the low-mid 80s throughout the next
couple days. Light easterly winds continue to push our typical Gulf
moisture to our west, meaning daytime highs will at least not feel
so muggy. Low temperatures the rest of tonight and Monday night drop
into the mid 50s-60s inland and 60s-low 70s along the coast.

Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday sees a surface trough off Matagorda
Bay which raises PoPs offshore. Some of these showers could make
their way onshore along Matagorda and Brazoria coasts, but models
have been trending the rain further and further south/offshore.
Winds will also be elevated throughout our nearshore waters between
15-20 kts Tuesday which creates elevated seas between 3-7 ft before
tapering off throughout the day on Wednesday.

Beyond these Gulf showers, the rest of the week is dry and warm with
gentle easterly winds. This is largely due to the development of an
Omega Block - an upper level pattern that brings clearing, drying,
warming, and gentle winds for our area. This settles in Tuesday
evening and persists until the weekend, when, despite the Omega
pattern breaking apart, an upper level ridge and surface high
pressure remain in place. This means we can continue expecting
temperatures to rise throughout the week, without relief from
rainfall, but to be mostly muggy-free.

BSM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 500 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period. SCT to BKN
upper level clouds are currently in place just north of I-10
alongside light and variable winds. Winds will become
northeasterly to east-northeasterly around 5-10 kt later this
morning and persist through sunset before becoming light and
variable again. Increasing moisture later this evening is expected
to bring low-end VFR ceilings (3500-5000ft) in southwestern areas
overnight.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Winds and seas to relax throughout the night, with the Small
Craft Exercise Caution falling off at 1 AM on Tuesday. Winds build
back up throughout the day Tuesday with a long fetch of easterly
winds between 15-20 kts which elevates seas to between 3-7 ft. As a
result, advisories and flags may be on the horizon for Tuesday
afternoon into the early morning hours of Wednesday for Gulf waters.

BSM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  81  55  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  82  63  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  80  70  80  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for
     GMZ350-355.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
     for GMZ370-375.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT
     Wednesday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BSM
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...BSM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion