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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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804
FXUS64 KHGX 062334
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
534 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy, but dense, fog will be possible across much of the area
  tonight into Sunday morning.

- Cold front moves through the area Sunday ushering in chillier
  weather to start the work week.

- Hazardous marine conditions with winds of 20-25 kt with gusts to
  30-35 kt possible Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.

- Monitoring the potential for another cold front towards the end
  of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1239 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

After an abnormally warm November, we were practically begging for
the weather to feel more like winter (well at least I was). We got
what we asked for as most locations have not seen a temperature
above 60F in the month of December...but that changes today.
Sunshine finally returns today along with onshore flow leading to
high temperatures finally making it back into the upper 60s/low 70s.
Low level moisture is gradually increasing thanks to that onshore
flow and with clear skies prevailing going into tonight alongside
winds becoming light...the potential for fog is on the high side.
This fog may become dense at times especially for areas near and
south of I-10 going into Sunday morning. North of I-10, 925mb winds
will be elevated which makes low stratus a more likely outcome.
Intermittent periods of dense fog can`t be completely ruled out up
there especially in the few hours before sunrise. Temperatures
overnight will still be somewhat chilly, but they`ll be about 7-10F
warmer compared to Friday night as low temperatures range from the
upper 40s to mid 50s.

The warming trend continues going into Sunday as high temperatures
peak in the upper 60s to mid 70s. A cold front will push through on
Sunday afternoon though leading to a return of seasonal temperatures
going into next week. This will be a mostly dry FROPA, but could see
some showers along the frontal boundary as it pushes offshore. A
light freeze will be possible on Sunday night and Monday night for
portions of the Piney Woods with low temperatures in the low 30s.
Elsewhere, expect low temperatures to range from the mid 30s to low
40s. High temperatures on Monday will be in the upper 50s to low
60s. Expecting a warming trend through most of the work week as
onshore flow returns on Tuesday. Widespread high temperatures in the
70s are expected by midweek. The end of the work week is a bit
uncertain at the moment in relation to another potential cold front.
The troughs depicted at both 500mb and 850mb look to remain to our
north and east, so it`s a bit too early to lock one in. There is
about a 20 degree spread between the upper and lower quartiles for
temperatures in the latest deterministic NBM run...so yeah! We`ll
keep an eye on model trends over the next few days and see if they
congeal on a particular solution.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 455 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Light VRB winds expected through Sun morning. Cigs are expected
to lower to IFR-MVFR tonight for much of SE Texas, with some
sites possibly lowering to LIFR at times. Areas of patchy to dense
fog is expected to develop tonight into Sun morning and will lead
to visibilities of less than 1 mile during the overnight and
early morning hours for several locations, to include IAH/HOU.
Conditions will gradually improve after 14Z with most of the fog
burning off shortly after that hour. Cigs will also lift gradually
around that hour and are expected to scatter out by the afternoon
hours as drier air moves in after the passage of a dry cold
front. NW winds at 10-15kt will develop Sun afternoon/evening in
the wake of the front and gusts could reach 20-25kt at times.
Brief moments of llvl wind shear is also possible.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1239 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Lingering light showers will be possible over the Gulf waters
through the overnight hours. Expect a gradual transition from
easterly winds to southeasterly by late afternoon. With winds
remaining light going into the overnight hours as moisture
increases, patchy to areas of fog (dense at times) will be possible
in the bays and nearshore Gulf waters late tonight into Sunday
morning. A cold front will push through by Sunday afternoon bringing
moderate to strong northerly winds extending into Monday. Sustained
winds will be in the 20-25kt range with gusts up to 30-35kt
alongside rough bay waters and 6-9 ft seas. Mariners can expect a
Small Craft Advisory to be in place Sunday afternoon through Monday
morning. These elevated offshore winds may lead to abnormally low
water levels during low tide cycles on Sunday and Monday.

Winds and seas gradually subside going into midweek with the wind
direction becoming easterly by Tuesday morning and southeasterly by
Tuesday afternoon. Winds increase to near caution flag territory
around midweek and we`ll be monitoring the timing of the next cold
front towards the end of the work week.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  52  69  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  55  73  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  61  72  49  60 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion