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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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961
FXUS64 KHGX 181100
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
500 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm and humid conditions expected over the next several
  days.

- Could not rule out scattered showers Friday into Saturday.

- Cold front pushes through on Saturday, bringing chillier (though
  near normal) temperatures by Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

The next few days will feature continued enhanced onshore flow
while the subtropical ridge aloft flattens, yielding to a more
zonal-ish pattern in the mid/upper levels. The pattern will deny
our area synoptic lift while continuously pushing warm, humid air
northward from the Gulf. Therefore, expect rain chances to remain
low and those temperatures to remain high over the next few
days. Afternoon highs are expected to average in the low 80s
Wednesday, and low/mid 80s on Thursday (cooler at the coast and
northern Piney Woods). Overnight lows will generally be in the
60s. Patchy areas of dense fog are possible during the morning
hours Wednesday and Thursday.

By Friday, an area of low pressure is expected to deepen over the
Midwest and Great Lakes. The system`s associated trailing cold
front will surge southward towards SE Texas. The LL gradient is
expected to ease as the front approaches, resulting in weaker
onshore flow. This onshore flow could begin to weaken as early as
Thursday, allowing winds to decrease enough to favor sea fog at
the coast. So for those with interests near the coast, be advised
that the risk of sea fog will increase as we approach week`s end.
The one thing that could mitigate the sea fog risk somewhat are
the SSTs which are chilly but not THAT chilly (~ mid 60s). Global
models are picking up on a stream of vorticity that could enhance
lift somewhat on Friday into early Saturday. Thus, we do show a
modest chance of showers and more cloud cover. However, high temps
are still expected to reach 80 in many locations on Friday, and
potentially on Saturday (FROPA timing depending).

Speaking of FROPA, we expect the front to push through sometime
on Saturday. Guidance is suggesting a rather strong sfc high will
build southward over central CONUS on Sunday. But the center of
the high is expected to push more southeastward towards E CONUS as
opposed to pushing due south in a typical "blue norther" fashion.
As long as this trend holds, then the bulk of the cold air
spilling into CONUS should remain to our north and east. For now,
our forecast features a return to normal southeast Texas winter
weather for Sunday into early parts of the work week. This
translates to afternoon highs generally in the 60s with lows in
the 30s and 40s. Couldn`t rule out frosty areas in the morning,
particularly in our northern counties. So don`t put those sweaters
away just yet!

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 500 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Widespread MVFR ceilings this morning are expected to hang on into
through the 17Z-18Z timeframe before lifting back to VFR.
Southerly to south-southwesterly winds this afternoon will be on
the breezy side with sustained winds around 8-12 kt and occasional
gusts up to 15-20 kt through the afternoon. Can`t entirely rule
out spotty light showers in the afternoon either, but the
potential is too low to include it in any of the TAFs. Going into
the late evening hours (after 02Z-03Z), another round of MVFR to
IFR ceilings is expected to fill in from south to north with
lower ceilings closer to the coast. There is potential for patchy
fog along the coast as well, but the elevated southerly winds may
inhibit its development. IFR to MVFR ceilings are expected to
prevail from late this evening into late Thursday morning.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1100 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Enhanced onshore flow will likely bring 3-5 foot swell to our
Gulf waters through Thursday. Could not rule out swell closer to
6 feet in our zones farther offshore. Patchy sea fog is possible
on Wednesday and Thursday, with a higher risk of sea fog Thursday
night through Saturday morning. The one factor that could
mitigate the fog risk will be the water temperatures that are only
marginally favorable for sea fog. That being said, moisture
levels will be high and winds will become increasingly favorable
for fog as the week progresses.

A strong cold front is expected to push offshore on Saturday.
Strong northerly winds and building seas are likely in its wake by
Saturday evening. These winds and enhanced seas are expected to
continue through Sunday and into Monday. Winds are likely to veer
to the northeast by Monday. Winds are expected to peak in the 20
to 25 knot range with gusts over 30 knots late Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Areas farther offshore may experience higher
winds. Seas over the open Gulf waters are expected to build to 6-9
feet on Sunday. Winds and seas are likely to improve on Monday
into Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  80  65  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  81  67  83  65 /   0   0  20  10
Galveston (GLS)  73  64  74  64 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion