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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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778
FXUS64 KHGX 190537
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1137 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of sea fog are expected along the coast throughout the
  work week. Best chance of widespread fog will be Thursday night
  into Friday morning, and again Friday night into Saturday
  morning.

- Well above average temperatures expected through Friday and
  likely through Saturday.

- Cold front pushes through the region on Saturday, bringing
  cooler & drier weather Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1050 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Continued onshore flow is pushing warm, humid Gulf air into
southeast Texas. For tonight, this is manifesting as an expanding
LL cloud deck and areas of fog and haze, especially at the coast.
Therefore, we suspect many of you will wake up to low clouds and
potentially some fog. For Thursday, expect another warm humid day
in the low 80s (cooler at the coast) with isolated showers here
and there thanks to subtle lift from a stream of modest vorticity.
Friday appears similar, with perhaps a tad more lift and a better
chance of widely scattered showers. A cold front will push
through on Saturday, bringing another slight chance of showers
ahead of it.

The soupy air mass in place through early Saturday will set the
stage for areas of evening, overnight, and morning fog. This is
particularly true at the coast, where water temperatures remain in
the mid 60s in the vicinity of Galveston and upper 60s to near 70
closer to Matagorda. With favorable onshore flow in place and dew
point temps that are at or above the water temps, expect
favorable conditions for some sea fog. Current coastal dew points
are averaging in the mid/upper 60s. But not far offshore, we are
seeing dew points in the lower 70s. That is downright tropical!
Considering this tropical air over the relatively cool Gulf
waters, we could not rule out patchy dense sea fog occuring during
the afternoon hours on Thursday and Friday.

The cold front pushes through on Saturday, bringing increasing
north winds and cooler/drier air in its wake. The NBM suggests I
should have highs in the mid/upper 60s on Sunday and Monday. But
with a 1040+ mb high pushing south into north-central CONUS, I
wouldn`t be surprised if the cooler global guidance is correct.
The current low/mid 60s in our grids for Sunday and Monday is a
50/50 blend between the NBM and a global model blend. But had I
gone with just the globals, highs would be struggling to reach the
low 60s. I also went a little colder than the NBM for Sunday and
Monday night by mixing in some MOS data which tends to resolve
rural cold spots pretty well in efficient radiational cooling
scenarios. Couldn`t rule out some patchy frost in rural areas
north of I-10. Maybe some cold Piney Woods spots could drop to
around freezing. Urban and coastal zones are only expected to
drop into the 40s.

The early outlook for Tuesday and beyond features a gradual warm
up. So enjoy the brief period of sweater weather while you can.

Self


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 520 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through this evening with SCT to OVC
mid-level clouds around 4000ft and southerly winds around 6-9kt.
Ceilings will lower to MVFR conditions (CIGs around 1500ft) by
3-4z with periods of IFR conditions between 7-11z with CIGs around
700ft. Patchy fog will also be possible during the predawn hours.
Ceilings will gradually rise back to MVFR through the morning with
VFR conditions returning for most of the region by 16-18z. GLS may
have lingering low clouds around 2500ft through the afternoon. A
return to area-wide MVFR (and eventually IFR) conditions are
expected Thursday night.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1050 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

The primary marine weather concern is sea fog. Light, warm, humid
onshore flow will continue through at least Saturday morning. The
highest risk of sea fog will be during the evening, overnight, and
morning hours. However, patchy dense fog could linger over the
Gulf and near the immediate coast into the afternoon hours. The
highest risk of more widespread fog will be Thursday night into
Friday morning, and again Friday night into Saturday morning.

The next weather concern will be a strong cold front that will
push offshore on Saturday, bringing increasing northerly winds and
building seas by Saturday night into Sunday. Small Craft
Advisories are likely. Sustained winds are expected to reach 20-25
knots with gusts over 30 knots. Seas over the open Gulf are
forecast to reach 6-10 feet. It`s possible winds could be higher
farther offshore. Our current forecast for areas more than 20 NM
offshore features gusts near 35 knots. Winds gradually veer and
slowly decrease by Monday. But conditions could remain hazardous
through Monday morning. Winds are forecast to veer onshore by
Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  66  82  60  79 /   0  10   0  10
Houston (IAH)  68  81  65  81 /   0  20  10  40
Galveston (GLS)  65  74  64  73 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion