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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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696
FXUS64 KHGX 100503
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1203 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly cloudy, warm, muggy, and breezy conditions Tuesday.

- Next weather system and associated band of storms push across
  the region late Tuesday night into Wednesday followed by cooler,
  breezy, and seasonal conditions to end the work week.

- Some hazardous marine conditions mariners and Spring Breaker`s
  should be aware of: some fog tonight, rip currents & building
  surf Tue-Wed, moderate to strong north winds Wed night and Thurs
  (typically inflatables are discouraged by beach patrol with
  offshore winds).

- Monitoring the potential for another cold front going into early
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The good news is that we`re expecting most of the fog overnight to
be just an issue along the coast...the bad news is it`s still going
to be warm and muggy everywhere overnight. Dew points remain in the
upper 60s to low 70s. We`ll just call it like it is, it`s simply
atrocious. So, out-the-door temperatures in the morning will also be
in the upper 60s to low 70s. That`s close to what our normal HIGH
temperature should be this time of the year. It is MAR10 Day though,
so we`ll talk about our jump to more seasonal conditions following a
cold front on Wednesday (Wahoo!). Before that though, we`ll have
another warm and humid day on Tuesday as high temperatures top out
in the low to mid 80s. As an upper level low approaches Texas from
the west, a LLJ strengthens into the 30-40 kt range extending from
southern to northeastern TX Tuesday morning. Some of these stronger
winds will be able to mix down to the surface leading to wind gusts
in the 25-30 mph range throughout the day. Showers and storms begin
to develop out in central TX on Tuesday morning in association with
the strengthening LLJ and an embedded shortwave. This convection
will skirt fairly close to the Brazos Valley, so don`t be surprised
to see some raindrops or hear rumbles of thunder in this region.

As the upper level low tracks eastward into TX by Tuesday evening,
surface low pressure develops in response and subsequently drifts
eastward through the state. The associated LLJ strengthens further
late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as the low drifts eastward
with mid-level winds peaking in the 40-50 kt range on Tuesday
evening (strongest winds over the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods). Model
guidance points toward showers/storms pushing through Southeast TX
very early Wednesday morning into the afternoon. High-res model
guidance is fairly interesting as far as how this actually
evolves...let`s break it down. The 00Z CAMs depict a MCS pushing
through central TX then fizzling out as it approaches southeast TX
early Wednesday morning. This results in a period of showers through
the morning before another line of storms develops in the afternoon
hours. Now there`s a non-zero chance that this could also play out
with the MCS having a sufficient cold pool that keeps it trucking
along, so mesoscale features will matter a lot. Timing will also be
a factor. We`ve seen with the most recent MCS/QLCS events that the
actual timing of storms ended up being quite a bit quicker than
model guidance originally indicated, which puts into question how
much instability will be available if these storms develop in the
morning hours.

There definitely is potential for storms to become strong to severe,
especially in the Piney Woods. Strong winds will be the primary
hazard in any of the stronger storms along with locally heavy
rainfall. SPC has outlined areas east of a Madisonville-Hunstville-
Shepherd line in a slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather on
Wednesday. Greater amounts of buoyancy will be the present in this
region. The majority of Southeast TX along and east of the Brazos
River are in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather. As I
mentioned above, there is potential for locally heavy rainfall in
any of the stronger storms with PW`s in the 1.6-1.8" range (90th
percentile: ~1.40"). These storms will be progressive though, but
they could drop a quick inch or two of rain across the Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods. As a result, WPC has outlined this region in a
marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Wednesday. We
know that Spring Break is this week for a lot of you, so be sure to
keep an eye on the forecast as we head into the middle of the week
for the next round of showers/storms. Stay weather aware and have a
way to receive watches/warnings, especially if you plan on being
outdoors.

This convection will be along an eastward moving frontal boundary.
There will be a second cold front that pushes through from the north
late Wednesday afternoon into the evening, and there may be enough
moisture leftover for some shower/storm development along this
frontal boundary. Some of the latest CAM guidance supports this
second round of convection, especially in the Brazos Valley/Piney
Woods and potentially making it into the Houston metro area in the
evening hours. Drier air and breezy northerly winds follow in the
wake of this front, which will lead to a period of seasonal
conditions that last through the end of the work week. Starting
Wednesday night, we can finally call overnight temperatures cool
again with low temperatures back in the 40s/50s. Thursday will be
the peak day to be outdoors with high temperatures in the upper 60s
to low 70s...that sounds much better as a high temperature than as a
low temperature! We`ll go back on a warming trend going into the
weekend with high temperatures reaching back into the 80s, but we`re
monitoring the potential for another cold front late Sunday/early
Monday that would give us another period of seasonal weather.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Back to VFR almost across the area, though GLS never did make it
above MVFR, and is already flirting with CIGs at 004. Not much
change from previous cycles, just some minor tweaks in the
direction of persistence, getting down to IFR/MVFR at most sites
with sea fog impact for LBX and GLS. Should see improvement
through the morning and emergence of gustier S/SE winds for
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

With onshore flow persisting, patchy fog will continue in the
nearshore waters and may extend into the southern portions of the
bays at times overnight. Southeasterly winds remain around 10-15 kt
overnight, so not expecting the fog tonight to be as dense as
previous nights.

As the next weather system approaches from the west, southeasterly
winds and seas will increase Tuesday night likely prompting the
issuance of caution flags or a Small Craft Advisory. A band of
showers and thunderstorms will push through on Wednesday ahead of a
cold front and may produce locally higher wind gusts/waves. A cold
front then pushes offshore Wednesday night with a period of strong
northerly winds (sustained 25-30kt with gusts up to gale possible)
and elevated seas (7-10 ft) lasting through Thursday.

Those heading to the beaches or out on the waters for Spring Break
should be advised of this period of hazardous marine conditions
around midweek. The risk of rip currents will increase along area
beaches thru Thursday (swim near a lifeguard and away from rocks,
jetties, and piers). Onshore flow returns Thursday night through the
weekend, then another cold front looks to push through late Sunday.

Batiste

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

We`ll be monitoring the Trinity River at Riverside (RVRT2) as we
anticipate another round of showers and storms late Tuesday night
into Wednesday as there is potential for it to crest near or into
minor flood stage over the next couple of days. A couple of other
gauges along the Trinity River may crest near action stage
depending on how much rain falls into the basin.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  85  68  77  49 /  20  60  90  30
Houston (IAH)  85  71  80  56 /  10  10  90  30
Galveston (GLS)  77  70  77  59 /   0   0  80  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion