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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

382
FXUS64 KHGX 132302
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
602 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scatter to Widespread showers/storms early this week. Slight
  Risk (level 2 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall today and Tuesday.
  Ponding on roadways and street flooding will be possible.

- Hot weather returns during the second half of the week with
  highs in the upper 80s/90s and heat indicies in the 90s/triple
  digits.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1112 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Southeast Texas remains engulfed within a deep tropical airmass
today with satellite derived PWs around 2.0-2.2 inches. A robust
ridge is currently situated over the Northern Plains/Upper
Mississippi River Valley, though a trough over the SE CONUS is
anticipated to undercut it, pushing southwesterly towards our area.
This features is progged to push a slow moving frontal boundary into
southeast Texas later today, eventually stalling out. Forcing from
the front, in addition to midlevel PVA from the trough, will
continue to bring scattered to widespread showers/storms through
the early evening. The general pattern across CAMs depict another
round of convection pushing in from the north along the
aforementioned frontal boundary. This cluster is progged to
eventually collide with the activity already ongoing over SE
Texas, likely outputting higher rainfall rates wherever it occurs.
Regardless, the environment is already primed for high
precipitation efficiency, and thus locally heavy rainfall may
occur as a result.

A lull in rains is expected to develop this evening as daytime
heating and instability wanes. Some drier air filters in aloft,
generally above 400mb, but otherwise mid/low level RH remains very
moist with PWs still around/over 2.0 inches for Tuesday. With the
stalled frontal boundary and trough still draped over SE Texas, the
heavy rainfall threat should continue with scattered/widespread
storms expected throughout the daytime hours on Tuesday. Storms
should taper off into the evening again, much like the day before.

WPC has southeast Texas largely under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4)
of Excessive rainfall for today and Tuesday. Rainfall totals through
Tuesday night are expected to be around 1-3" but locally higher
amounts could reach 3-7" in spots. Ponding on roadways and street
flooding could occur, especially in urban/low lying areas with poor
drainage. If you encounter flood waters, turn around!

The heavy rainfall threat decreases into Wednesday as forcing &
instability are reduced. Rain chances will taper off during the
second half of the work week as ridging builds overhead. Conditions
then gradually heat up in the days following with highs reaching the
upper 80s/90s with heat indices in the 90s/triple digits. Rain
chances are currently slim, though some very isolated streamer
showers could develop during the overnight/early morning hours.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Lingering showers with a couple of isolated thunderstorms continue
to prevail around the region, but expect activity to gradually
dissipate over the next few hours with a dry period expected late
this evening into early Tuesday morning. MVFR to IFR ceilings are
anticipated to develop over terminals north of and including IAH.
This coincides with the onset of developing showers early Tuesday
morning. Additional convection is expected to develop around
sunrise and is expected to be scattered to widespread. The TEMPOs
cover the highest confidence window for convective impacts, but
impacts are likely to persist into the early afternoon hours.
Reduced ceilings/visibilities and gusty winds will be possible in
any of the stronger storms. Convective activity is expected to
subside in the mid to late afternoon with widespread VFR
conditions returning across the region. Winds will be light and
variable overnight then becoming light and easterly to
southeasterly in the daytime hours. Wind speeds generally remain
less than 10 kt outside of any storms.

Batiste/Wingo

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1112 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

S to SE winds around 10 to 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet are
expected throughout the week. Round of showers and thunderstorms are
expected through mid week, generally during the daytime hours. Some
occasional strong storms could produce locally higher winds, seas
and reduced visibility from heavy rainfall. Rain chances decrease
Wednesday and taper off into Thursday, though very isolated streamer
showers will remain possible during the overnight and early morning
hours.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  73  83  72  86 /  70  90  40  70
Houston (IAH)  74  83  75  88 /  60  80  30  70
Galveston (GLS)  80  88  83  89 /  50  80  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion