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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

760
FXUS64 KHGX 061107
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
607 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerously hot conditions will continue through the forecast period.
  Daily widespread heat indicies of 105-107F (41-42C) with
  locally higher values over 108F (43C +) are likely.

- Isolated to scattered (20-40% chance) showers and thunderstorms
  will be possible this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon.

- Chance of isolated to scattered sea breeze  showers/storms
  increases slightly early next week.

- High pressure builds into the area by midweek, reducing precipitation
  chances Wednesday and Thursday. Rain/storm chances return late
  in the week and into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

The erosion of ridging both across the eastern U.S and west Texas
yesterday afternoon brought mid-level height falls to our region.
This allowed for storms to develop to our north across eastern
Texas, which moved south reaching the I-10 corridor before
dissipating. Currently, a decaying outflow boundary is progressing
southwestward across Chambers and Galveston Counties, bring gusty
winds of 30 mph with it. Left over cloud cover from decaying showers
is seen across eastern Harris and western Liberty Counties.
Elsewhere, skies are mostly clear.

For today through Tuesday, guidance continues to show mid-level
height falls as the mid to upper-level synoptic pattern breaks down.
This will favor better chances for showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. Many of the CAMs performed well
with yesterdays showers and thunderstorms, especially the HRRR. The
CAMs are once again showing the potential for another round of
showers and storms north of I-10 this afternoon, and across much of
the area Tuesday afternoon. Isolated showers and storms will
generally be favored south of I-10 this afternoon, but some
seabreeze showers and storms will be possible. Shower chances look
to decrease Wednesday and Thursday before we see chances increase
towards the end of the week.

Mid-level ridging is expected to build back in Wednesday, but is
expected to be short lived. Hot conditions will continue for several
days, with heat indices between 105-110F (41-43C) expected. Whether
or not Heat Advisory criteria is met will be dependent on the timing
and location of showers and storms towards the end of the week.
Areas where shower coverage is less would see higher heat indices at
the end of the week. Overall, storm chances towards the end of the
week and into the weekend look to be more widespread than what has
been seen over the last week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Similar to the last few mornings, we are starting to see some
MVFR cigs/vis develop. This shouldn`t last too long with VFR
prevailing by 13-14Z. Southerly winds will increase to around 8-10
knots this afternoon then become light and variable during the
evening hours. GLS looks to remain around 10 knots through the
night. There is a low chance for showers and storms across the
region this afternoon. Confidence is low in impacts at any
particular terminal at this time so have left any mention out of
the TAFs. Other then the risk of mist/fog conditions will remain
VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Light onshore flow will persist into early this week. Overall,
Gulf seas are expected to average 1 to 2 feet, occasionally up to
3 feet. Isolated coastal and Gulf showers will be possible each
morning, with a chance of isolated thunderstorms along the sea
breeze in the afternoon. Winds and seas begin to increase by the
middle to later part of next week, with a gradually steepening
pressure gradient. Small craft exercise caution winds and seas may
develop by Thursday as the gradient continues to steepen, with
Gulf seas increasing to 3 to 4 feet by the end of the upcoming
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  96  77  95  77 /  10  10  10   0
Houston (IAH)  97  79  95  78 /  20  30  30  10
Galveston (GLS)  90  83  90  84 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...Castillo
MARINE...Williams

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion