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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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704
FXUS64 KHGX 011130
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate heat risk will continue today and persist each day
through Thursday. Peak heat index values between 102-107F (39-42C).

- Moderate to major heat will be possible Friday and into the Fourth
of July weekend. Peak heat index values between 105-110F  (40-43C).

- High rip current risk is now in effect along area beaches until 10
AM this morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Overall, only minor adjustments were made with this forecast
package. A few showers and thunderstorms developed across western
and central portions of the Western Pineywoods yesterday afternoon
and evening. Quiet conditions are in place across the area tonight
with no showers present across the region.

The mid-level ridge has centered itself over the Ohio Valley and Mid-
Atlantic regions, leaving southeast Texas on the southwestern
periphery. The ridge will continue to shift eastward through
Thursday afternoon before reorienting itself across our region this
weekend. Isolated seabreeze showers and thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon with some scattered coverage across the
northern Golden Triangle. As the ridge relaxes on Thursday, richer
moisture will move into the region along with a subtle impulse.
This will bring scattered showers to the Gulf Coast and southern
Western Pineywoods, and numerous showers across far eastern
Liberty and Chambers Counties. Isolated to scattered showers are
expected along and east of I-45 up to Madison County. Rain chances
look to briefly diminish Friday and Saturday and then increase
Sunday afternoon and into early next week.

The HeatRisk continues to remain the main threat for the region.
Peak heat index values will continue to range between 102-107F (39-
42C) today and Thursday, with values increasing to 105-110 (40-43C)
on Friday and into the weekend. The highest values will generally be
seen where seabreeze showers do not occur. Forecast trends will
continue to be monitored to see if Heat Advisories will be necessary
for the holiday weekend. Frequent hydrating and shade/AC breaks will
be key to beating the heat.

The rip current threat has renewed overnight. There is a high risk
of rip currents in place for Gulf facing area beaches until 10 AM
this morning. After mid-morning, sea heights look to fall once
again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

VFR is prevailing at all TAF sites this morning, with just a few
patchy stratus clouds streaming in from the Gulf.
Brief/intermittent MVFR ceilings remain possible, especially at
KCLL, KUTS, KCXO, and KDWH through about 13-15Z before clouds
lift to VFR levels. Isolated convection may develop this
afternoon, generally north of I-10, but probabilities are too low
to include in TAFs at this time. Southeast winds will persist and
should remain relatively light through the forecast period,
sustained around 10 knots or less by this afternoon. Mid/high
level clouds increase late this afternoon and evening, which may
or may not limit stratus development overnight tonight. Will keep
VFR prevailing.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Gentle to moderate breezes will vary from a southerly to
southeasterly direction with 2-3 ft seas along with chances for
scattered showers/thunderstorms on Thursday, primarily over the
nearshore waters and bays

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  95  76  93  76 /  20   0  20   0
Houston (IAH)  95  78  93  78 /  20  10  40  10
Galveston (GLS)  89  82  89  82 /  10  20  30   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 10 AM CDT this morning for
     TXZ436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...Mejia
MARINE...Williams

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion