Skip to main content.

National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

Related quick links> 5 Day Forecast, Local Advisories, Drought Monitor, UV Forecast, Air Quality Forecast 
309
FXUS64 KHGX 171843
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1243 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog inland tonight/early Wednesday. Patchy sea fog will
  also be possible in nearshore waters and lowers bays throughout
  the work week, especially Thurs-Friday night.

- Gradual warming through Friday with temperatures 10-20 degrees
  above normal.

- Pacific cold front pushes through Saturday morning, bringing
  higher PoPs with cooler & drier wx following through early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1221 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

SE Texas sits on the peripheral of subtropical high pressure this
afternoon with high clouds rounding rounding the edge from NW to SE.
Multiple disturbances are anticipated to traverse through the
northern CONUS over the next few day, but again with the subtropical
high to the south, SE Texas will predominantly see zonal flow in the
upper levels throughout much of the work week (with a slight WSW
flow orientation). This lack of forcing aloft should keep rain
chances rather sparse throughout the majority of the week. Onshore
flow remains largely uninterrupted during this period, so we`ll see
a steady rise in surface moisture. Patchy fog may develop across
portions of SE Texas tonight into Wednesday. With each passing day
and increase in moisture, the risk of patchy sea fog will grow
across the nearshore waters, especially around Galveston bay.
Thankfully, the pressure gradient will be fairly tight, courtesy of
the previously mentioned disturbances and their associated surface
lows. The resulting elevated winds should help limit the extend and
intensity of sea fog. Won`t completely rule out the potential for
some isolated dense patches, especial Thursday night, Friday morning
& night as a weak frontal boundary is progged to stall out over the
northern 1/3 of our CWA (Brazos Valley area). A lull in winds and
pooling moisture ahead of this boundary could serve to invigorate
fog/sea fog with SREF guidance showing medium-high confidence in low
visibility across the barrier islands for Friday morning. Could see
some light showers accompany this boundary, both along and ahead of
it in the form of streamer showers. Highs should range from the 70s
to lower 80s over these next several days with lows in the upper
50s/60s. This puts temperatures around 10-20 degrees above normal
for this time of the year.

A deeper upper level through should swing through the Plains early
on Saturday, sending a pacific cold front through the region early
in the day. With ample moisture and more robust forcing, we can
generally expect to see the highest rain chances in the current
forecast period on Saturday with perhaps a few storms as well.
Still, this front is far removed from deeper forcing aloft, so I
wouldn`t anticipate anything stronger than that. Expect breezy
weather on Sunday with cooler and drier weather continuing into next
week.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 515 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Areas of dense fog and low ceilings are impacting terminals near
and west of I-45 this morning. Expect conditions to gradually
improve after 15Z, but MVFR ceilings may linger through 17Z for
northern terminals. Southerly winds this afternoon will be breezy
with 10-15 kt sustained winds and gusts in the 20-25 kt range
through the afternoon. Winds remain a bit elevated going into the
evening/overnight hours. Another round of fog and low ceilings is
anticipated overnight into Wednesday morning. Where the winds
remain elevated overnight will play a role in who experiences
low ceilings rather than low visibilities, which is most likely
for northern terminals (e.g. CLL/UTS). Either way, widespread
IFR/LIFR conditions are anticipated overnight into Wednesday
morning.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1221 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Onshore winds around 10-18 knots with seas of 2-5 feet are expected
throughout the workweek with higher guts to near 20 knots during the
overnight hours. Patchy sea fog will be possible throughout the work
week, especially in the coastal waters off of Galveston. Thursday
night and Friday/Fri night may see the most impactful effects of sea
fog due to pooling moisture and a lull in wind speeds from a
stalling frontal boundary to the north. Visibility should still be
around 2-6 MN due to the elevated winds, though cannot completely
rule out some denser pockets with lower visibility. A weak pacific
front pushes through the areas and off the coast early on Saturday,
producing showers and maybe a few storms as well. Small craft
advisories may be necessary behind the front Saturday night.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  62  80  65  82 /   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)  63  80  67  82 /   0   0   0  20
Galveston (GLS)  64  73  65  74 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion