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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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356
FXUS64 KHGX 051841
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
141 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

...KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

- This week will be slightly drier, but a a daily risk remains for
coastal morning showers, and afternoon scattered showers and
thunderstorms inland along the sea breeze. Most of this activity
will remain along and south of the I-10 corridor.

- Turning hotter in the next few days with highs in the mid to upper
90s.

- There is a moderate risk of strong rip currents along all Gulf-
  facing beaches most of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Latest visible satellite imagery shows a widespread field of Cu
clouds, indicating a less stable atmosphere. This is likely driven
by a weak surface trough, increasing convergence along the coast,
and a passing upper-level shortwave. As a result, scattered
showers with isolated thunderstorms are developing and will slowly
continue to move inland, mainly along the sea breeze, in the next
few hours. Vorticity is fairly low in our area, but cannot rule
out isolated weak funnel clouds developing along the coast and
coastal counties. Most of this activity will remain along and
south of the I-10 corridor, though a few showers are possible
further north. Showers and storms are expected to dissipate by
sunset as diurnal heating ends and the shortwave moves out of the
region.

A strong upper-level ridge remains anchored to our west. This ridge
will be the dominant synoptic feature and will gradually expand
eastward, bringing an increase in subsidence, resulting in drier
and hotter conditions. While drier air entrainment will be a
factor, it will not be enough to completely suppress convection.
With decent PW values still in place, particularly over our
southern counties (south of I-10), the potential remains for
morning coastal showers with a few storms, and afternoon
thunderstorms developing inland along the seabreeze convergence
zone.

Temperatures will generally remain in the low to mid-90s, increasing
to the upper-90s Wed - Friday.

JM
&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Isolated showers continue to move inland from the Gulf this
morning. GLS currently at IFR with reduced VSBY from TS. Most of
the activity has died off upon reaching the I-10 corridor;
however, beginning to see very light showers popping up along and
just north of the corridor at this hour. Have included PROB30 for
southern terminals this afternoon as activity picks up along the
sea breeze. Otherwise, expect GLS to recover to VFR later this
morning with VFR prevailing at all other sites. Winds will
generally be light out of the southeast. Gusts to around 20 knots
will be possible with any storms today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Light onshore winds and low seas will prevail throughout the week.
Light to occasionally offshore winds are expected late night into
early morning due to the land breeze. This will also result in
morning showers with isolated thunderstorms. This pattern of showers
and isolated storms in the morning with a few cells along the coast
in the afternoon can be expected in the next 7 days. A few storms
could become strong, producing strong winds and brief heavy
downpours.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  94  75  95  75 /  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  94  77  95  78 /  20   0  30  10
Galveston (GLS)  91  83  91  82 /  50  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion