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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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383
FXUS64 KHGX 081052
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
552 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- With more sun, temperatures will run above seasonal averages,
though humidity will be somewhat lower.

- Can`t completely rule out a brief shower or two over the next
couple of days, but the best rain chances remain offshore.

- Hazardous marine conditions (winds/seas) are expected at times,
more so toward the end of the work week from a nearby tropical
system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

A trough axis continues to linger overhead along, but overall dry
conditions prevail even in spite of PW values near or over the 75th
percentile (~1.63") south of I-10. We can thank a capping inversion
aloft around 800-750mb which has kept anything more than a few to
scattered low-level clouds to develop this afternoon. This is also
in spite of an embedded shortwave passing through this afternoon,
but the best region of PVA was technically off to our east. High
temperatures today topped out mostly in the low 90s, but will be a
tad bit hotter coming up on Thursday.

A pocket of drier air moves in from the east late Thursday into
Friday and brings PW values closer to the 25th percentile (~0.94").
850mb temperatures will be fairly close to the 90th percentile, and
since drier air heats up more efficiently...expect high temperatures
to peak in the low to mid 90s. Dry air also cools more efficiently
too, so low temperatures on Thursday and Friday night will range
from the mid 60s to low 70s. The drier air also limits our rain
chances on Thursday, but slight chances return on Friday as moisture
increases in our southeastern zones as Isaias approaches the north
central Gulf coast. These rain chances are dependent on how far east
Isaias goes though...AKA the further east it tracks, the lower our
rain chances on Friday afternoon.

While we won`t see any direct impacts from this system, there are
expected to be a few indirect impacts with most of them being marine
related. These include: hazardous seas in the Gulf waters, increased
risk of rip currents, and potential for minor coastal flooding along
Gulf-facing beaches late in the work week. The air won`t be as dry
on Friday, so we`ll only see high temperatures maxing out in the
upper 80s to low 90s. Going into Saturday, as Isaias moves inland
some drier air is expected to be pulled in with northerly flow on
the western side of the system. In yesterday`s discussion, I
mentioned that slightly cooler 850mb temperatures would accompany
this drier air. Well...with the eastward shift in Isaias` forecast,
so with it went the slightly cooler 850mb temperatures. So, we`ll
stick with our high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s.

Ridging aloft builds in late in the weekend going into early next
week leading to a slight uptick in temperatures and potentially
increasing rain chances depending on how quickly moisture builds
back in going into early next week. On the plus side, low
temperatures over the weekend will be mostly in the 60s to low 70s,
but will be on the rise back into the low to mid 70s going into
early next week.

That marks the end of this discus...NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND! Join me
again in the bonus section down below and let`s check in to see if
our mid-October miracle is still in play.

Bonus Section: Hunting for a REAL Cold Front Pt. 2//
----------------------------------------------------

We`ll start out with the caveat/disclaimer that this is in no way,
shape, or form a part of the official forecast. This is essentially
me just looking into fantasy land for a glimmer of hope in the form
of a real cold front...some like to call it wish-casting, but I
prefer to call it manifesting!

Last night, we checked out the GEFS and Euro ensembles and at least
half of them reflected low temperatures below 60 degrees for the
City of Houston at some point in mid-October. Well...that still
remains the case! The Euro ensembles show a higher probability of
occurrence (40 out of 50 members) and the GEFS ensemble members are
still just over 50% onboard (17 out of 30 members). There is
variations in time of occurrence and that`s to be expected looking
this far out in the future. The trends continue to hold, and that
gives us another tick in the confidence column. There`s still lots
of time for things to change, but we`ll continue to believe! I also
mentioned yesterday that I`d be updating y`all on these mid-October
front trends through the weekend, but there`s been a slight change
of plans thanks to the happenings in the Gulf. I`ll be back in on
the forecast desk Sunday night, but I`ll have my fingers and toes
crossed that the trends hold!

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 548 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF periods. Winds will
generally be light and from the northeast. Winds should be a
little higher near the immediate coast, possibly gusting 15-20
knots by this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Caution flags remain up in the Gulf waters as moderate northeasterly
winds persist. Look for winds to increase going into Thursday as
Isaias becomes a hurricane and continues on its northeastward trek
towards the north central Gulf coast where it`s expected to make
landfall late Friday night. Small Craft Advisories go into effect
for the Gulf waters on Thursday morning, but there is some
uncertainty on how strong the winds will be on the western side of
Isaias. The potential for hazardous winds (15-25 kt) and seas
(peaking around 6-9 ft) will continue through Saturday. Elevated
water levels during times of high tide (peaking above 3.5 ft MLLW)
and increased risk of rip currents are also anticipated due to
Isaias late this week. Mariners are advised to stay up to date on
the latest forecasts. Winds and seas gradually subside over the
weekend.

Additionally, there are daily chances for scattered showers/storms
mainly in the Gulf waters through Saturday before drier air briefly
moves in. Rain chances then return early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  92  66  90  66 /   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)  91  70  90  70 /   0   0  30  20
Galveston (GLS)  86  76  86  75 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT this morning
     for GMZ350-355-370-375.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ350-355-370-
     375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...35
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion