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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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099
FXUS64 KHGX 130522
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1222 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing heat risk with "feels-like" temperatures around
  97-107 degrees (36-42 Celsius) through this weekend.

- High Risk of Rip Currents this weekend, likely continuing into
  portions of next week. Minor coastal flooding possible at high
  tide on Sunday.

- Risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding Sunday night through
  late Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Subtropical ridging aloft should keep hot weather over SE Texas for
the first half of the weekend. Heights within the midlevel ridge
remain around 591-593 dam, within the 84-95th climatological
percentile for this time of the year. Subsidence will still greatly
limit the potency of any convection, keeping them mostly as light
showers with only brief storms. Most of these showers/storms are
expected during the early morning and afternoon hours. Highs are
forecasted to reach the upper 80s to mid 90s (31-36 Celsius) with
lows in the 70s to lower 80s (21-27 Celsius). Afternoon dewpoints
are still anticipated to remain in the 70s (20-26 Celsius) each day.
As a result, heat indices and "feels-like" temperatures are
forecasted to reach 97-107 degrees (36-42 Celsius) over these next
few days. WBGT heat stress is forecasted to be high, though some hot
spots could see isolated pockets of Extreme heat stress during
portions of the afternoon. Sensitive groups or those not acclimated
to the summer weather of Houston will be especially at risk of
experiencing heat illness. If you plan to spend time outdoors, make
sure to drink plenty of water to stay hydrated.

If you have any beach plans this weekend, make sure to watch out for
rip currents. Swim near a lifeguard, if possible, and be sure to
avoid swimming near any rocks, jetties, and piers where rip currents
frequently occur. Minor coastal flooding will also be possible along
the coastline at high tide on Sunday.

Hot weather will continue into Sunday as the ridge and above-normal
heights remain overhead for just a tad longer. Models still have
midlevel heights around 591-592 dam overtop the area with onshore
winds still progged to bring robust moisture & WAA during the
daytime. This surging moisture from the Gulf will help enable
scattered showers/storm development during the early morning and
afternoon hours, similar though greater than what we`ve observed
these last several days. For areas that miss out on rainfall, highs
should still reach the upper 80s/lower 90s temps with heat indices
in the triple digits.

Heading into Sunday night, a mid/upper level trough & several
additional disturbances will dig across the Plains, forcing the
ridge southward and thus reducing heights over SE Texas. A cold
front associated with this trough will push south towards SE Texas.
PWs are progged to surge to 2.0-2.4 inches ahead of the front from a
weak disturbance pushing north up long the TX/Mex coast. Forecast
soundings ahead of the front early on Monday still show the typical
signals for heavier rainfall (saturated conditions, skinny CAPE
profiles, and a deep warm cloud layer). Model guidance shows the
cold front stalling out over SE Texas. Too early to say where
specifically, but wherever it does stall, it`ll focus convection and
amplify showers/storms along the boundary. ECMWF EFI values for QPF
are still in the range of around 0.6-0.9 with SoT values almost near
1. Overall the signals for heavier rainfall are there, though there
is still uncertainty as to where/when the front will stall
precisely, which will greatly impact where the highest rainfall
amounts occur. WPC has SE Texas under a Marginal Risk (Level 1/4) of
Excessive Rainfall Sunday night, increasing to a Slight Risk (level
2/4) overnight into Monday as the front pushes into SE Texas. The
heavy rainfall threat decreases to a Marginal Risk on Tuesday,
diminishing into Wednesday as the frontal boundary lifts north.
Rainfall totals late Sunday through Tuesday are forecasted to range
from around 1-3 inches though higher amounts to around 5 inches
cannot be ruled out. Soil moisture remains low, though heavy rains
over a short period could still result in flash flooding, especially
if this rainfall occurs over urban/low lying areas.

Daily rain chances continue Wednesday through the end of the work
week. Temperatures will also be on the rise once again as ridging
builds over the Gulf. Hot weather and heat indicies in the triple
digits are poised to return as well, so continue practicing heat
safety!

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Showers and thunderstorms over portions of Southeast TX will
continue to gradually dissipate this evening into early tonight
as diurnal heating decreases. The more likely sites that could be
affected from these storms from time to time are KCXO, KUTS, and
KCLL. As these storms pass through, winds could become VRB at
around 10-15KTS with gusts up to 20KTS possible. Winds should veer
back to SE an hour or two after the storm passes. For the rest of
the sites, expected VFR cigs with SE winds at 5-10KTS. Winds will
relax to around 5KTS for many sites overnight, and we could once
again see the development of MVFR cigs during the early morning
hours (Sat), in particular over areas north of I-10. There is also
a slight chance for patchy fog, mainly from 10-14Z, although
confidence is low at this time. By the mid morning hours on
Saturday, expect cigs to gradually lift and scatter. Winds will
increase to 06-10KTS from 14-18Z and to 08-12KTS with gusts up to
20KTS on occasion after 18Z. We may see a few quick passing
showers in the morning over areas near and south of I-10 and iso
showers and storms in the afternoon to early evening hours over
areas near and north of I-10. Storms, if any, will dissipate in
the evening.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas of 3 to 6 feet
are expected this weekend. Caution flags may be warranted at times,
especially this evening as winds and seas approach advisory levels.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day,
increasing Sunday into early next week. A high risk of rip currents
is anticipated almost daily for the foreseeable future. Minor
coastal flooding will also be possible at high tide on Sunday.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  95  78  93  75 /  20   0  60  80
Houston (IAH)  92  79  92  78 /  20  10  70  60
Galveston (GLS)  89  83  89  82 /  20  10  30  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for TXZ436>439.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Sunday for
     TXZ436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion