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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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581
FXUS64 KHGX 130530
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1230 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and muggy today with scattered showers and isolated
  thunderstorms.

- Continued warmth through Thursday, though rain chances slightly
  diminish.

- A cold front is expected to push across the region on Friday
  bringing cooler, breezy, and drier conditions to the region this
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Surface/llvl high pressure to our will maintain a warm/humid
southeasterly flow today. Though there is some mid level ridging
overhead, PW`s holding in the 2.1-2.4" range, daytime heating, and
some modest llvl speed convergence should allow for scattered
precipitation again today. Higher chances/coverage look to be across
the eastern half of the CWA.

Heading into Wed-Thur, some recycled lower PW`s currently situated
across the NE Gulf should advect into the region and lower
overall rain chances (though still non-zero) and coverage.

Friday, a 1035-1041mb high will be sagging south through the
central CONUS and push a cold front through the region. We`ll
likely see a wind shift to the north early in the day (probably
with a prefrontal trof), but we should see the much drier, cooler,
and breezy conditions filter in later in the day and Friday
night. Who`s up for some lows in the 50s and highs in the
70s-low 80s this weekend?

A gradual modifying trend ensues early next week as high pressure
moves off to the east, an easterly wave tracks ewd near the Yucatan,
and our upper flow pattern transitions to the sw.  47

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

MVFR CIGs have developed at CXO and LBX. Water vapor imagery at
the low levels shows cloud cover beginning to increase, so
anticipate more terminals, particularly north of I-10 to become
MVFR during the overnight hours. IFR CIGs may develop at UTS/CXO
just before sunrise. All sites expected to improve to VFR by mid
to late morning. Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA may impact
terminals again Tuesday afternoon. For now, have maintained a
PROB30 for IAH/LBX/GLS where the probabilities are the highest.
Winds will be generally light out of the southeast, though gusts
to 20 knots may occur with any overhead showers/storms, or from
outflow. Expect activity to wane off near sunset.

Bailey

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Moderate onshore winds and 3 to 5 foot seas will prevail
for the next several days. A prefrontal trough is forecast to push
off the coast Friday allowing for a NNE wind shift followed by the
front itself Friday night. Once the cooler air arrives and moves
over the warmer coastal waters, look for a substantial increase in
north-northeast winds and building seas Friday night and Saturday.
Small Craft Advisories will likely be required and some gale
conditions cannot be ruled out. Winds/seas should gradually
trend lower Saturday night and Sunday.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  93  76  93  70 /  20  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)  92  76  91  72 /  50  10  20  10
Galveston (GLS)  88  79  88  78 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion