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444
FXUS64 KHGX 231131
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
631 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Upper Texas coast
  and adjacent waters through early Friday. Tropical Storm Bertha
  is forecast to weaken as it approaches southeast Texas Thursday
  afternoon into Thursday night.

- Hazardous heat is possible today across the Brazos Valley and up
  through the Piney Woods where heat index values could reach 110
  degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Tropical Storm Bertha will make its approach to the Upper Texas
Coast late this afternoon into this evening. However, this system
will be rather lopsided with most of the showers and storms
displaced to the south of its center. This system will be
weakening on approach as it battles the dry air, wind shear, and
land interaction with Louisiana. A tropical Storm Warning is in
effect from coastal Brazoria County up to Chambers County. This is
where the highest possibility of gusts of 40-45 mph resides,
mostly in any rain bands. Other than this, significant impacts are
not expected. Rainfall totals will be light enough to preclude a
threat of flash flooding. Probability of 2 inches of rain or more
is low, and mainly focused on the coast south of Galveston. Some
minor coastal flooding is possible near times of high tide from
the Bolivar Peninsula eastward where tides may run a couple feet
above normal. There is also a high risk of rip currents today
along area beaches. The timing of impacts is mostly this
afternoon into this evening as the system quickly weakens upon
moving onshore.

Outside of the tropical impacts, it`ll be another hot day with
highs in the mid to upper 90s north of I-10 and low 90s south. The
extra humidity in place will make it feel more like 105-110, and a
Heat Advisory has been issued for the Brazos Valley and up into
the Piney Woods.

Beyond Thursday, ridging resumes its hold across the central and
western US, keeping us in a hot, dry pattern through early next
week. A few residual showers are possible Friday, but overall
rain chances dwindle to near 10% or less. We may have more
hazardous heat heading into the weekend, but forecast heat index
values are just below advisory levels right now. But we`ll monitor
those trends over the coming days.

Young

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Primary aviation issue today will be increasing winds in
association with approaching TS Bertha. Inland, speeds should
gradually increase into the 13-20kt range as the day progresses
with some gusts to around 30kt a possibility. Along the immediate
coast and offshore they`ll probably be about 10kt higher. Shower
and thunderstorm chances will increase this afternoon, with
highest probabilities along and south of I-10...substantially
lower as one goes further inland. As Bertha tracks westward and
inland this evening, both rain chances and wind speeds should
diminish. Forecast soundings do however show the potential for
some MVFR ceilings across filling in across portions of the area.
47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Light to moderate west to southwest winds and seas around 2 to 3
ft continue this evening. Influence from Bertha will begin
Thursday as winds increase to around 20 to 30 knots with gusts up
to 45 knots. Seas will increase to around 4 to 9 feet. Tropical
Storm Warnings are in effect for Galveston Bay and the waters off
of Galveston Bay and Small Craft Advisories are in effect for
Matagorda Bay and adjacent waters through Friday morning.
Conditions will improve going into Friday with winds light to
moderate out of the south to southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  96  78  94  76 /   0  20  20   0
Houston (IAH)  94  79  94  78 /  50  40  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  90  83  90  83 /  90  40  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ214-337-338-437>439.

     Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ163-164-176-177-195>199-210>212-226-235-335.

     Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for TXZ436.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Friday for GMZ330-350.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ335-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Young
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion