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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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410
FXUS64 KHGX 021122
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
622 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tropical Depression Edouard will continue to move WNW through SE
Texas today.

- The primary threat through tonight is heavy rainfall. A Flood
Watch is in effect thru 7PM. Highest risk of heavy rain is generally
north of I-10 and along and east of I-45. Any  convective bands that
do develop have the potential to produce  heavy rainfall and flash
flooding.

- WPC has upgraded portions of the Piney Woods to a Moderate Risk
  (level 3 of 4) for excessive rainfall today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

The remnants of Edouard will continue to move WNW across SE Texas
today (currently located in the eastern Piney Woods). Forecasting
the rainfall has been on the tricky side, and the materialization of
heavier rainfall has been delayed from initial forecasts.

Overnight, Edouard had a few convective bursts close to the core, as
well as some developing convective bands further from the center.
Overnight rainfall closer to the core has been estimated to be
between 6-8" at the time of this AFD. With PWAT values around 2.2-
2.6" and decent instability, expect to see the trend of banding
continue overnight.

Once we tap into daytime heating in addition to the moisture rich
environment, we should continue to see convective banding through
the day Wednesday. This may be further aided by the afternoon sea
breeze. The majority of the rainfall is expected to remain north of
I-10 and along and east of I-45. There is some uncertainty with
Brazos and Madison Counties...if the depression moves more west-
northwest, these locations could see a little more rainfall than
what is forecast.

Current forecast has a swath of 6-8" rainfall totals in a SE-->NW
orientation from Northern Liberty to Houston County through
Thursday. Again, this will all depend on where the heaviest
convective bands set up, and where any bands train...but current
thoughts are that our eastern and northernmost counties will
experience the most impacts from Edouard. Isolated higher amounts
will be possible in those locations if forward motion slows and with
any training storms.

Jumping back to the sea breeze...while most of the rainfall is
expected to occur in the aforementioned locations, the sea breeze
could trigger storms south of I-10 closer to the coast (especially
since we are in a moisture-rich environment). Some of these storms
could produce brief heavy downpours with localized instances of
flooding (urban and low-lying areas and areas with poor drainage).

Moving through the rest of the week, the ridge of high pressure will
build back in and we will see rain chances decrease significantly
north of I-10. Closer to the coast, the combination of daytime
heating, the sea breeze, and residual moisture will result in daily
chances of diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms.

Heat and humidity will return by the end of the week as highs push
back into the 90s and heat indices return to the triple digits.
Cloud cover should keep us below Heat Advisory thresholds through
the end of the week. Will need to monitor this weekend as indices
creep towards Advisory levels.

Bailey

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Center of TD Edouard is situated across the Piney Woods and where
the greatest concentration of precipitation will be consolidated
today. That said, there we`ll very likely see some continued
feeder band development and expansion on its periphery across the
region throughout the day...which is extremely difficult to
pinpoint specific times and intensity at any individual airport
terminal. As such, have largely broadbrushed the TAFs with the
expectation of frequent amendments as necessary. Though mainly VFR
conditions will prevail, keep in mind that deep tropical air
remains in place...and the potential for heavy rain/some
lightning/reduced vsbys & ceilings (probably MVFR) are entirely
possible wherever these heavier bands do set up. Overall precip
coverage will diminish with the loss of heating...with
consolidated redevelopment likely closer to the remnant low ends
up overnight (maybe CLL/UTS terminals northward). 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 146 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Light southwesterly winds this morning will give way to light
onshore flow this afternoon. Expect onshore flow to continue through
the rest of the week with seas around 1-3 feet. Daily chances of
showers and thunderstorms are anticipated.

Bailey

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 146 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Polk County has received the majority of the rainfall overnight
from Edouard. Current radar estimates show rainfall totals of
7-10" across the county. There is slow forward motion with TD
Edouard, so expecting those totals to increase over the next few
hours.

As Edouard continues to push NW, it is expected to produce
a swath of rainfall amounts totaling 6-8" with isolated higher
amounts possible over the next 48 hours. Rainfall rates will reach
up to 3-4"/hour, leading to increased flash flood potential.

The location of these higher amounts will be dependent on where
the heaviest convective bands setup, if forward motion continues
to be slow, and if any training occurs. Current thought is that
the Piney Woods will receive the highest rainfall amounts.

Based on this current rainfall forecast, we anticipate widespread
rises to action stage along area rivers with isolated minor to
moderate river flooding possible especially where the heaviest
rainfall sets up. The primary basins of concern include the San
Jacinto and Trinity rivers. Potential impacts include flooding of
streets and low-lying areas. If the higher totals materialize,
more significant flood impacts may occur. Residents in these areas
should monitor weather updates closely and be prepared to take
necessary actions especially if traveling at night.

Bailey/Batiste

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 146 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Edouard has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression and all
Tropical Storm Warnings have been canceled. The threat for heavy
rainfall will continue today for areas north of I-10 and along and
east of I-45 as remnants of Edouard continue to move across
Southeast Texas.

Bailey

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  94  75  93  74 /  60  60  40  10
Houston (IAH)  93  78  93  77 /  60  30  50  10
Galveston (GLS)  91  84  91  83 /  50  10  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-196-
     198>200-212>214-300-313.

     Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ163-164-
     177>179-200-300.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ335-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Bailey

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion