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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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417
FXUS64 KHGX 090636
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1236 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Risk of strong to severe storms this afternoon/evening ahead of
  a cold front.

- Cool, dry and windy conditions develop behind the front on
  Saturday.

- Slight warm up on Tuesday before another reinforcing front on
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

A much deeper mid/upper level trough is expected to pass through the
Plains today, providing support for additional showers and storms
across the area. Favorable bulk shear totals of around 45-65 knots
will certainly help with storm organization, though instability is
leaning on the low end in ensemble means (topping out around 1200
J/KG) though some individual runs still show the potential to get
2000J/KG or more. While the strongest forcing with this system
will still be much further ENE, conditions locally still appear to
be sufficiently potent to get some discrete strong/severe storms
today. Models keep pinging the norther half of the CWA across the
Brazos Valley/Piney Woods for the strongest updraft helicity
(again, locally speaking), courtesy of an embedded shortwave in
some ensemble members. The severe weather risk will kick off
during the afternoon (starting around noon), and will continue
into the evening as the shortwave passes. While storms should
propagate from northwest to southeast with the FROPA, the
strongest storms are more likely to track with the shortwave
over the northern half of our area. Wouldn`t completely rule out
the potential for some stronger storms to the south as well as
the front moves off the coast. SE Texas will be under a Slight
(level 2/5) to Marginal (level 1/5) Risk for severe weather today,
with all severe hazards still in play.

The cold front should be off the coast early Saturday morning with
cooler, drier weather and strong northerly winds developing in it`s
wake, especially across the barrier islands. Highs will be in the
mid 50s/lower 60s with early morning lows in the 30s/40s. Winds
begin to decrease on Sunday as high pressure starts to push off to
the east. Overnight into Monday morning will likely be the coolest
part of the forecast with lows dipping into the upper 20s in the
Piney Woods/Crockett. Cooler weather persists through Monday with
onshore flow slated to return Tuesday, resulting in rising
temperatures and rain chances into Wednesday. Another trough digging
through the Mississippi River Valley should push a reinforcing
front into the area around mid week, helping keep cooler
conditions in place a through Thursday.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 545 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Complicated forecast cycle ahead for details, but broad strokes
are confident - smattering of showers moves off to the east,
replaced by MVFR conditions for most, as low as IFR for some.
Anticipating best conditions for most urban Houston terminals,
while exurban and northern sites manage IFR CIGs, and sea fog
impacts coastal sites. Sketched out timing as best I could, but
will require monitoring through the evening and overnight hours to
make sure TAF tracks with reality.

Tomorrow also looks complicated with pre-frontal trough and trough
approaching. SHRA could start to emerge as early as 12Z for
northernmost sites, and throughout the day across the area. Best
chances likely to be in the afternoon and early evening. Starting
with VCs/PROB30s as rain should be more scattered than widespread,
but may be able to introduce TEMPO/Prevailing in later cycles
should confidence in impact to a specific terminal increases. For
now, keep TSRA mentions to northern terminals and IAH extended,
but future cycles will need to address this more broadly.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1228 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Winds continue to decrease overnight, though seas remain elevated
offshore. They should slowly come down, though caution flags will
remain in place for the time being to allow seas to subside. Sea fog
will still be a concern this morning and likely this evening too
ahead of an approaching cold front, as dense patches will be
possible. Showers and storms will likely accompany the front with an
isolated strong to severe possible as well. The front should push
off the coast later tonight/early Saturday morning. Moderate to
strong northerly winds behind the front will warrant Small Craft
Advisories at a minimum over the better half of the weekend. Cannot
completely rule out the potential for Gale conditions either. Winds
and seas slowly decrease Sunday into next week.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  73  46  58  36 /  70  60  10   0
Houston (IAH)  79  53  63  42 /  70  70  20   0
Galveston (GLS)  76  57  66  48 /  50  80  40  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 AM CST early this
     morning for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion