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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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674
FXUS64 KHGX 281123
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
623 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected early this
  morning over the coastal zones and further inland with the
  seabreeze this afternoon.

- Hot and humid conditions with low chances for showers/storms
  will continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop
overnight as the main frontal boundary slowly shifts toward the
coast. As of 12 AM this morning, the boundary was almost stationary
and extended roughly along the I-10 corridor. With deep low level
moisture (PWs 2 - 2.3"), and deep moisture convergence remaining
over the region, rain and storm chances will continue overnight
through early Friday. The best focus for any convection will reside
near the slow-moving boundary, which is generally over the coastal
counties. The severe weather threat is low; however, gusty winds,
brief heavy downpours and frequent lightning are possible with any
strong storms.

The boundary is forecast to move off the coast by the morning hours,
keeping some activity over the coastal waters. Overall, north to
easterly winds will prevail through the day, bringing a slightly
drier air mass. It won`t be completely dry, though. A few showers
and storms are again possible in the afternoon with the seabreeze
interaction. Temperature-wise, it will be hot, but at least not in
the triple digits. Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 90s.
Remember to practice heat safety wherever you are!

Beyond Saturday, mid to upper lvl ridge centered over West TX will
continue to expand eastward through early next week. While a few
disturbances moves into the region from the Gulf through the week.
These disturbances along with the afternoon seabreeze interaction
will keep a daily risk of rain/storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Isolated SHRA/TSRA should continue this morning. The earlier TSRA
near IAH is dissipating. We expect more isolated to scattered
SHRA/TSRA activity this afternoon, with the best chance of TSRA
south of I-10. Thus, we have included TS w/in PROB30s for our
terminals south of I-10, with SHRA PROB30s farther north. However,
we cannot completely rule our TS north of I-10. Conditions will
generally be VFR. But IFR-MVFR along with locally gusty winds are
likely in the vicinity of any TS.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

A weak frontal boundary is expected to reach the coastal waters
early this morning before washing out/weakening through the day. A
few showers and storms will be possible along the boundary.
Strong winds and building seas are possible near any strong
storms. Generally light offshore winds are expect today, before
winds shift more southerly after Saturday. Overall, expect a daily
risk of showers and storms with the best chances in the morning
over the Gulf waters and in the afternoon over the bays.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  97  76  97  75 /  20  10  10   0
Houston (IAH)  97  79  97  78 /  20  20  20   0
Galveston (GLS)  91  82  92  83 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion