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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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987
FXUS64 KHGX 091926
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
226 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably hot conditions will continue today as daytime highs
  will be in the mid 90s with heat indices reaching the triple
  digits.

- Lower chances of rain today. Isolated to scattered seabreeze
  showers and thunderstorms are possible closer to the coast.

- Deep Gulf moisture will arrive Friday morning causing rain
  chances to increase Friday and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

A drier airmass prevails today as shown by Water Vapor and the
Blended Total Precip Water satellite imagery. Dry air (particularly
inland) and mid-level stability are effectively capping most
convective development this afternoon. However, cannot rule out
isolated to scattered, sea breeze showers and storms mainly along
and south of I-10 through early this evening.

Heading into Friday, the pattern begins to shift. As the ridge of
high pressure amplifies over the Rockies and Plains, a weak mid-
level trough will track westward across the western Gulf, sliding
along the southern TX coast. This setup will usher in a deep surge
of tropical moisture across the region, with PW values in the 1.9-
2.1 inch range. This will result in widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend, with rain and storms developing
along the coast late at night into the morning. Then spreading
inland late morning through the afternoon. As Southeast TX sits on
the southern periphery of the broad high pressure ridge, the region
will remain vulnerable to shortwaves/vorticity maxes aloft tracking
westward underneath the ridge. Therefore, expect a return to a more
active, mostly diurnally-driven, convective period. This wet pattern
will settle in for the weekend and persist through at least the
first half of next week. Have PoPs around 40 to 70% through this
period. Localized heavy downpours and strong gusty winds will be
possible with any stronger storms.

Temperatures will generally remain in the low to mid 90s during the
day, and will be warm and muggy at night with overnight lows in the
upper 70s to low 80s. Peak heat indices in the triple digits (100-
107F) can be expected each afternoon. A slight relief from the heat
will be possible early next week as cloud cover and rain chances
could potentially result in high temperatures in the mid 80s to low
90s, which is a few degrees below normal for this time of year.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Latest satellite and radar imagery show generally quiet conditions
across the forecast area, with VFR prevailing at most TAF sites.
Patchy fog is on going across the region with KCXO briefly dropping
down to IFR conditions. A couple of ASOS stations across the region
show MVFR conditions as well. That said, most sites around the
region remain at or above 7 mils this morning. Still kept the
possibility for some visibilities down to 6 miles for a few sites
this morning, with KCXO reflecting MVFR conditions.

A SAL intrusion is expected today, which should put a lid on shower
and thunderstorm potential this afternoon and evening. However, some
isolated showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze can not be
ruled out. Winds look to remain light to gentle out of the SW/S
through tonight. Convective Allowing Models are starting to show a
cloud deck building in towards the end of IAH`s 12z TAF period. It
is too early to tell if cigs will support MVFR conditions, but an
increase in sky conditions appears likely over the next couple of
TAF cycles.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas will continue
tonight, and persist well into the upcoming week. Seas will
generally remain 1-3 ft. Winds and seas will occasionally
increase/build Friday into the weekend, resulting in periods of
Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions. Rain and storm chances will
be on the increase Friday into the weekend, with the best chances
overnight through early afternoons. Elevated winds and seas will be
possible near any stronger storms.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  95  78  95 /  10  30  10  30
Houston (IAH)  79  94  79  94 /  10  30  20  60
Galveston (GLS)  84  90  85  90 /  20  50  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Williams
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion