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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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092
FXUS64 KHGX 020443
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1043 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog will remain a possibility nightly through the next few
  nights.

- Unseasonably warm weather will continue through this week.

- Some scattered rainfall expected midweek, but the potential for
  widespread rainfall is increasing for the weekend. Locally heavy
  rainfall will be possible during the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1037 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

The first week of March will feel more like mid to late April as
southerly flow at the surface and southwesterly flow aloft brings
high temperatures in the low to mid-80s for most of the area (with
the potential of isolated areas of upper 80s by week`s end).
Overnight lows will be similarly unseasonably warm with
temperatures down into the low to mid 60s through Monday night,
and then mid to upper 60s beginning midweek.

Patchy, but dense in areas, fog will also be a concern through the
next few nights as the southerly winds bring increased moisture to
the region. Winds do begin to become breezy by Tuesday night,
which combined with increasing cloud cover, should help to inhibit
inland fog development. We continue to monitor the nightly sea
fog potential, but warming SSTs should also aid in limiting the
development.

We will have a couple of chances for rain this week in SE Texas.
The first chance will be Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front
approaches from the northwest, then stalls along the I-35
corridor. While the bulk of the rainfall will stay to the
northwest of our area, increasing WAA, passing weak disturbances
aloft, and increasing moisture will lead to scattered showers and
possibly isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday. This stalled
boundary will meander to the north into Thursday morning, so may
see some isolated lingering showers in the Brazos Valley and Piney
Woods on Thursday morning before the front retreats back to the
north.

The next chance for rain will be over the weekend as the nearly
stalled front makes another push to the southeast. Guidance is
trending towards the front making it into SE Texas before stalling
again. Some rainfall activity is possible on Friday thanks to
daytime heating and shortwave troughs embedded in the southwesterly
flow aloft. But, the greatest chances of showers and thunderstorms
for our region will begin Saturday as the front moves into and
stalls. Exact locations of the heaviest rainfall will ultimately be
determined by where exactly the front stalls, which is too far in
the future to determine now with confidence. A stalled boundary
and passing upper-level disturbances, combined with PWATs rising
1.5- 1.8" is a signal to watch for heavy rainfall. Our area is in
drought, so we will be able to handle a few inches of rain before
becoming a concern - but it is something our office will monitor
in the coming days. This front may meander within SE Texas through
at least the start of the following week, so SE Texas will
continued rain chances.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 549 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Winds will gradually weaken early this evening, becoming light
and variable overnight. While confidence is moderate, another
period of MVFR to IFR conditions is possible later tonight due
low ceilings and fog. Conditions remain favorable for these
restrictions, with low clouds slowly developing from the south-
southwest, and fog thickening toward sunrise. Any fog and low
ceilings should dissipate/lift by mid Monday morning. Southerly
winds around 8 to 10 knots, gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon.
Mostly clear skies will prevail for the rest of the TAF period.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1037 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

While conditions are gradually becoming more unfavorable for sea
fog development (warming SSTs), sea fog will remain a concern
through the next couple of nights. Expecting the fog to mainly be
patchy in nature, but pockets of dense fog will be possible in the
Bays and northern waters during the late night and early morning
hours.

Otherwise, expect light to occasionally moderate onshore winds to
persist through the week. Isolated showers will be possible
midweek, but rain chances increase by next weekend as a front
stalls near the region.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  59  82  63  86 /   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)  61  82  65  83 /   0   0   0  20
Galveston (GLS)  63  75  65  76 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Fowler

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion