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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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827
FXUS64 KHGX 090530
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1230 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
  through Mother`s Day weekend, including after midnight tonight
  into early Saturday morning and likely after sunset on Sunday.

- Additional rainfall totals of at least 0.5 to 1.5 inches (with
  locally higher amounts) are likely through the end of the day on
  Sunday.

- Mostly drier and warmer weather is expected through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

The atmosphere over southeast Texas remains persistently moist
thanks to mid-level troughing that continues eastward,
funneling/injecting more vorticity into southwesterly flow as
anticipated on satellite imagery across West Texas. This is
evident from nearby 00Z soundings with PWAT values ranging well
above the 75th percentile at 1.75-2 inches. While the lift to
instigate more convection remains more scarce across southeast
Texas (especially compared to north Texas), a new round of
convection developing over the Red River Valley is expected to
proceed southward and introduce a chance of precipitation across
Piney Woods zones in the early morning hours on Saturday. Forecast
uncertainty has been elevated in this synoptic pattern thanks to
the mesoscale nature of disturbances and weaker forcing. Drier
antecedent soils and somewhat drier precipitation trends will
boost 1 and 3-hour flash flood guidance thresholds, leaving the
best chances of any flash flooding further east of the I-45
corridor through the day on Saturday. Additional parameters still
favor the chance of severe thunderstorm development (mainly
elevated mid-level lapse rates near 7 J/kg) for a threat of large
hail with any convection that can become robust enough.

Sunday`s frontal boundary will provide the long-missing lift
necessary for another round of convection (some of which could be
severe) carrying the potential for damaging winds and large hail.
This round of stronger storms is expected to enter southeast Texas
later on Mother`s Day (well after sunset) and clear the area by
Monday morning, leaving a lower chance of rain for any daytime
plans. By the beginning of next workweek, a reprieve arrives in
the form of cooler temperature maximums/minimums (upper 80s/mid
60s, respectively). Medium-range guidance suggests ridging
gradually displacing northwesterly flow aloft through the week as
it exits the Intermountain West, keeping mostly dry conditions in
place areawide. Temperatures will respond in kind by the end of
the week, nearing the 90-degree mark in some areas.

Cassel

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Late this afternoon, only a couple of showers are present east of
all of the terminals. MVFR to IFR ceilings remain in place for
most terminals, but expect IFR ceilings to become widespread
overnight. Model guidance indicates fairly good potential for LIFR
ceilings between 09Z-15Z/Saturday. Cannot entirely rule out
visibilities decreasing to less than 1-2SM during this timeframe
as well due to fog. This timing also coincides with the first
round of showers moving in from the north. Model guidance remains
a bit uncertain on the exact timing and placement, but the highest
confidence window for rainfall looks to be in the 10Z-15Z
timeframe Saturday morning for terminals near and north of I-10.
Ceilings will take a while to lift...only becoming MVFR by around
17Z then VFR around 19Z-20Z.

Another round of showers looks to develop in the mid to late
afternoon as well (after 20Z), mainly near and south of I-10.
This portion of the forecast is a bit more uncertain, but we
cannot rule out some embedded thunderstorms in both the early
morning convection and the mid to late afternoon convection.
Winds will remain light and variable throughout most of the
forecast period. For terminals near and south of I-10, east-
southeasterly winds will become prevalent around 5-8 kt on
Saturday afternoon. Ceilings look to trend towards MVFR/IFR late
Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

With a warm front remaining just offshore, a 30-50% chance of
thunderstorm development will continue through the next 48 hours
carrying the threat of locally strong downdrafts. By Sunday night
into early Monday morning, another round of thunderstorms will
carry an additional chance of strong winds offshore. Post-frontal
northerly winds will remain elevated offshore through Monday
before returning back onshore by Wednesday. These post-frontal
winds are expected to remain below the threshold requiring
issuance of a Small Craft Advisory at this time.

Cassel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  69  86  67  79 /   0   0  80  10
Houston (IAH)  72  88  71  83 /   0  10  70  10
Galveston (GLS)  76  83  74  84 /   0   0  50  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cassel
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Cassel

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion