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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

665
FXUS64 KHGX 101857
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
157 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered, diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will
  remain in the forecast for the next several days.

- High temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 90s inland
  and the upper 80s to lower 90s along the coast.

- Locally stronger coastal / offshore thunderstorms capable of
  waterspouts possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 103 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Hot, humid, and unsettled will be weather theme through at least
the weekend. Satellite and radar strong evidence of a trough that
extends across the Gulf from the Texas Coast to the central Gulf
Coast (SE LA / MS / AL / E FL Panhandle). Mid-level WV imagery and
500 RAP imagery suggest the presence of two, broad, weak lows
along the trough axis, one near the Texas Coast and other near SE
Louisiana, with the strongest surface feature being associated
with the Louisiana disturbance. This broad, discombobulated system
will likely remain with us over the next few days, enhancing
offshore convection overnight into the morning, and inland
convection during the late morning and afternoon hours. Some
coastal and marine thunderstorms have been strong over the last
few days, with gusts over 30 knots and even a few waterspouts
reported. We suspect that will possible through at least Saturday.
Though our forecast consists of near areawide PoPs, the highest
chance of showers/storms will be in the southern half of the CWA.
Afternoon highs are expected to range from upper 80s / low 90s in
the coastal counties to mid 90s inland.

Ridging is expected to build over the region beyond the weekend,
suggesting a decreasing trend in the PoPs with hotter
temperatures. However, we are skeptical that ridging will be
strong enough to completely suppress diurnal convective activity
(offshore showers/storms at night/morning , afternoon
showers/storms inland). So we`ve kept a daily risk of showers and
thunderstorms through much of the upcoming week, especially in our
southern and coastal counties that experience the sea breeze.
Temperatures will continue to be in the 90s with high humidity. So
summer rages on in typical SE Texas summer fashion.

Self


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 103 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Iso-sct showers and storms will continue to develop through this
evening and affect most SE Texas sites from time to time. Expect
brief periods of heavy rain, frequent lightning, and VRB and gusty
winds of 20-25 kts in and around stronger storms. Chance of showers
and storms will decrease this evening and winds will relax to 5
knots or less after 00Z. A few showers over GLS/LBX will be possible
during the overnight hours. By around sunrise, showers and
thunderstorms will begin to move/develop over the coastal counties
with some storms potentially reaching HOU/IAH/SGR region by the late
morning hours. PROB30s are in place for that timeframe, and will
likely become a TEMPO as confidence of timing/location of storms
increases.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 103 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity should linger through
the early afternoon hours before tapering. Another round of
scattered showers and storms is expected late overnight into
Friday morning. Once again, a few storms could produce wind gusts
over 30 knots and a waterspout. Expect light to occasionally
moderate onshore winds, 2 to 3 foot Gulf seas, and a daily risk
of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  75  96  76  98 /   0  20   0  10
Houston (IAH)  77  93  78  94 /  10  50  10  60
Galveston (GLS)  82  90  83  91 /  30  60  40  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion