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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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514
FXUS64 KHGX 040452
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1152 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Sunday, better
  chance of thunderstorms in the morning near the coast.

- Much lower humidity and cooler nights Monday - Wednesday.

- After a break in the rain/humidity, we should see chances ramp
  back up across parts of the region Thur-Sat (especially coastal
  areas).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

A west Gulf trough, enveloped in very high PWATs, is producing
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity along with gusty coastal
and Gulf northeast winds. Some showers and thunderstorms Saturday
evening were heavy, which makes sense given the widespread 2.0+
inch PWATs. That being said, rainfall totals thus far this weekend have
generally been manageable since most of the heavier action has
remained offshore (not too surprising). This will probably be a
theme today, with scattered inland activity and heavier showers
and storms over the Gulf. Cannot rule out some of these Gulf
showers and storms moving ashore at the coast Sunday morning.
Given tides are running higher than normal, this will make coastal
areas a little more vulnerable to localized flooding.


As we head into Monday, a ~1025MB sfc high is expected to build over
the planes. Meanwhile, the Gulf trough should push farther
offshore. The building gradient should enhance NE LL flow,
advecting somewhat cooler and much drier air into the region.
Expect low humidity and afternoon temperatures in the 80s Monday -
Wednesday. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the 60s away
from the coast and outside Houston`s urban heat island. Though I
cannot rule out morning lows as cool as the upper 60s within the
city.

The aforementioned trough could make its return later in the week.
The sfc high should push eastward, while a potential cut-off low
like feature approaches from the west. This would open the door for
synoptic-scale lift along with increasing moisture levels and the
potential return for onshore flow (depending on exact positioning of
LL features). Therefore, the late-week forecast features rising
humidity and increasing shower/thunderstorm chances.

For those yearning for "real" fall-like weather, there is decent
ensemble support for a stronger cold front by the middle of the
month. Honestly, the data in the ensemble meteograms is probably the
strongest model support I`ve seen for a strong cold front reaching
SE Texas thus far this season. But considering how far out this
theoretical front is, I`d say taper your excitement for now.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1110 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

MVFR cigs prevailing at most TAF sites until a drop to IFR cigs
by 07 to 09Z. Currently, we anticipate cigs/vis to improve
starting around 16Z with VFR returning by 20 to 22Z, but there are
models which keep IFR cigs deep into the afternoon. For now, we
wrote in a SCT008 with an MVFR OVC deck at 16Z to hint at the
potential of those IFR cigs sticking around. Isolated/scattered
showers and thunderstorms will primarily be confined to the coast,
but storms could appear further north, especially in the evening.
Any showers/thunderstorms that develop over the terminals bring
with them the potential for sub-VFR cigs/vis and gusty winds.
Winds during this period will generally be out of the NNE/NE at
8-12 kts, with gustier winds closer to the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1110 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

The presence of a trough in the western Gulf and the gradual
building of a surface high over the central United States will
steepen the gradient and enhance northeast winds and seas through
Monday, and likely through Tuesday. Small Craft Advisory is in
effect for the Gulf waters through Monday, and could be extended
further. There will also be periods of Small Craft level winds in
the bays, particularly lower bays. Winds could gust over 30 knots
at times, especially over the Gulf and near/within thunderstorms. We
haven`t issued an advisory for the bays but cannot rule out an
advisory being warranted. Scattered to numberous showers and
thunderstorms likely today. The chance of showers and
thunderstorms will shift farther offshore Monday- Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  84  68  81  67 /  50  40  30  10
Houston (IAH)  88  73  83  72 /  50  60  30  10
Galveston (GLS)  87  78  85  78 /  50  90  80  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Monday afternoon for
     GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ350-355-370-
     375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion