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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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047
FXUS64 KHGX 251129
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
529 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Wind Advisory is in effect Wednesday morning through the early
  evening for areas along and south of I-10 where southerly winds
  of 15-25mph with gusts to 35mph will be possible.

- A weak cold front will pass through late Thursday night. Patchy
  fog near the coast may be possible ahead of the front as the
  winds relax and moisture increases.

- While a slight cool down will follow the cold front Thursday
  night, above normal temperatures will continue through the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1127 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

A tightening pressure gradient between low pressure over the
Southern Plains and a high pressure over the eastern Gulf will
lead to gusty south to southwesterly winds across SE Texas today
into Thursday morning. A Wind Advisory has been issued for most
areas along and south of I-10 between 9am and 6pm Wednesday as
sustained southerly winds of 15-25mph develop with gusts to
30-35mph possible. Winds will begin to lower after sunset, but
lingering gusty winds are expected along the immediate coast
through Wednesday night. The strong onshore winds will lead to
increased moisture across the area with afternoon minimum RH
values up into the 40-50 percent range for most inland locations.

The pressure gradient relaxes on Thursday as a weak cold front
approaches the region, so winds are expected to lower through the
day. This weak cold front will slide through the area late
Thursday night, ushering in a brief northerly wind shift that
continues into Friday morning. Something to monitor Thursday
evening/early nighttime hours will be the potential for some
patchy fog to develop along the coast as winds become calm and
moisture pools ahead of the front. Not anticipating much, if any,
rainfall to accompany the FROPA, but may see an isolated shower
over the coastal waters Thursday night into Friday morning.

Upper-level ridging builds into place this weekend into at least the
first half of next week leading to continued quiet weather.
Unseasonably warm weather will continue through the next week with
high temperatures on Wednesday rising into the low to mid 80s in
most inland locations and mid to upper 70s along the coast.
Expecting Thursday to be the warmest day of the week as warm air
builds ahead of the cold front with highs rising into the mid to
even upper 80s. A slight cool down is expected on Friday thanks to
cold front`s passage, but we will still be anticipating high
temperatures in the low to mid 80s for most areas with these
conditions continuing through the weekend.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 529 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

MVFR cloud deck has developed, most impactful near the coast for
GLS/LBX. However, sporadic CIGs may be seen at any of the rest of
the terminals for short periods, though the prevailing cloud
character should be more scattered. After a few hours, cloud decks
should lift and scatter, returning us to VFR with south winds
15-25G25-35 for the afternoon. Similar to this morning, expecting
potential for MVFR again tomorrow morning. Some guidance hinting
at low MVFR, but will stick with SCT decks that low for now, and
favor higher MVFR for now.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1127 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Moderate to strong onshore winds will generally prevail through
Thursday morning with sustained winds of 15-25kt with gusts to
30kt possible, so a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all
waters through 6am Thursday. The strong onshore winds will also
lead to building seas to 6-9ft. The winds will lower through
Thursday morning, but lingering elevated seas may lead to a
continuation of the Small Craft Advisory in the coastal waters
into Thursday afternoon/evening. A weak cold front will push
through the coastal waters late Thursday night into Friday morning
ushering a northwesterly wind shift with winds between 10-15kt.
Winds will quickly become easterly then southeasterly through the
day on Friday with light onshore flow and low seas prevailing
through the weekend.

One thing we are monitoring is the potential for a brief window of
patchy sea fog developing Thursday evening into Thursday night
ahead of the approaching cold front. Winds will become light ahead
of the front, which combined with increasing moisture may lead to
the development of that patchy fog. SSTs continue to warm, which
will limit the potential, but still something we will continue to
monitor in the forecasts ahead. Once the cold front moves through,
drier air moves back over the coastal waters ending the limited sea
fog threat.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  84  62  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  81  67  86  64 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  74  65  76  63 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for TXZ210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ330-335-350-
     355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Fowler

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion