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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

656
FXUS64 KHGX 012350
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
550 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend into the early week period.

- Low astronomical tides will lead to negative water levels around
  low tide cycles in the bays the next couple days.

- Rain chances return Tuesday ahead of the next front that will be
  pushing through Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 434 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast. Though warmer
than last night, expect a fairly cool conditions with low
temperatures in the 30s inland and 40s coast. Could see some
patchy areas of frost across the northern half of the region. By
Monday, many areas could be pushing 70 degrees, with a ssw llvl
flow in place. As moisture levels further increase Tuesday, we
anticipate seeing some shra development, and possibly a tstm or
two, in advance of the next front that is fcst to push through the
region Tuesday night. Behind the front Wed, mostly dry seasonable
conditions will prevail for the rest of the work week with ridging
in place. A gradual warmup expected this weekend as return flow
sets back up as the llvl ridge moves off to the east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 538 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

VFR at all sites. Winds light out of the SSW becoming variable
overnight. Patchy fog possible at SGR/LBX with VSBYs dropping to
MVFR around 9Z-13Z. Otherwise, VFR prevails with southerly winds
returning during the day Monday. Winds will generally be around
10-15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 434 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Onshore flow has resumed and will gradually increase through
Tuesday. There is some potential for patchy sea fog Tuesday
morning and again Tuesday evening and night. A cold front pushes
offshore late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Showers
are expected along and ahead of the front. Moderate northerly
winds and increasing seas are expected behind the front on
Wednesday, with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible over the
Gulf. Winds decrease by Thursday.

Water levels will remain low through Monday due to low
astronomical tides. We cannot rule out needing to extend the Low
Water Advisory into Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  36  68  56  70 /   0   0  10  40
Houston (IAH)  38  69  58  70 /   0   0  10  60
Galveston (GLS)  46  63  58  65 /   0   0   0  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Low Water Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ330-335.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion