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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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907
FXUS64 KHGX 241149
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
649 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions expected through early next week.

- Potentially hazardous winds and seas over the Gulf late
  Saturday through Monday.

- Potential change to a wetter pattern by the end of the month or
  early November.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

The ridge that has been stationed over us since the first cold front
of the season begins to weaken during the weekend. The pressure
gradient will tighten this weekend, thus, bringing the possibility
of winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph at times. Rain
chances will remain low through Sunday due to PWAT values of around
1" or less. Temperatures are still anticipated to reach the low
to mid 80s inland while staying slightly cooler in the upper 70s
along the coast. Increasing moisture transported from the Gulf
raises the dewpoints back into the upper 50s to low 60s,
decreasing our fire weather risk. Overnight lows sit between the
mid 50s and low 60s inland while slightly warmer along the coast
in the upper 60s and low 70s.

As we start the work week, an upper-level trough will meander south
through the Plains while surface moisture continues to move in from
the Mid Texas Coast, increasing PWATs to around 1.5 inches. This
is where we will see our PoPs return, brining isolated to
scattered showers mainly over areas west of I-45. Temperatures
will be slightly cooler early next with highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s. The overnight lows, on the other hand, are slightly
warmer sitting in the 60s inland and low 70s along the coast
lines. This is due to the previously mentioned additional
moisture and increasing dewpoints.

Looking further ahead guidance continues to suggest a cold front
dropping into the area around the Halloween time frame. But
uncertain remains with the usual suspects of timing and intensity
that far out in the models.

CMW/Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

VFR conditions at all sites with VFR prevailing through the
period. Benign weather pattern continues today with light and
variable winds through the morning becoming light out of the
southeast this afternoon through the evening hours. Light and
variable winds return this evening through the end of the period.

Bailey

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Light to moderate east to southeast winds are expected through
early next week as the pressure gradient tightens. Winds at times
could strengthen to 20 knots or slightly higher Sunday and Monday.
In response to the stronger winds, seas will build to 3 to 6 feet
by Sunday and possibly rise to around 7 feet over the offshore
waters on Monday. Caution flags and/or Small Craft Advisories will
likely be needed from late Saturday through late Monday. Winds
relax and seas gradually subside Tuesday into Wednesday. Rain
chances will return early next week as moisture from the Gulf
moves in and an upper level trough moves across the Southern
Plains.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  86  60  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  85  62  81  60 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  82  69  80  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CWM
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion