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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

004
FXUS64 KHGX 041055
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
555 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible
  on a daily basis into next week.

- Heat and humidity continue with heat indicies in the triple
  digits each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Upper level ridging will expand across the Southern Plains with a
mid-level circulation meandering SW through the day Friday. PWAT
values remain elevated, and as daytime heating kicks in with the
approach of the sea breeze, expect to see more showers and
thunderstorms developing over the course of the day. Nearby mid-
level vorticity maximum, along with moderate instability and weak
winds, will promote slow moving storms capable of producing heavy
downpours and isolated gusty winds through the afternoon hours.

Expect this pattern of daily showers and storms to continue through
the long-term period as a broad area of low pressure remains nearby
and the ridge just to our north. This area of low pressure coupled
with daytime heating and the afternoon sea breeze will promote
afternoon showers and storms.

Look for highs to be in the low to mid 90s for inland areas and in
the 80s along the coast. Daytime heat indices will reach into the
triple digits.

Bailey

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Isolated to scattered showers with some intermittent flashes of
lightning currently ongoing across the region. The majority of the
coverage remains west of I-45, but convection has been steadily
developing near and east of GLS early this morning. Additionally,
intermittent periods of reduced visibilities possible over the
next few hours especially at CXO.

High-resolution model guidance depicts that convective coverage
persists along and south of I-10 through the morning then
expanding in the early to mid afternoon. PROB30`s have been
included for the most likely window for convective impacts. Winds
remain light and generally southeasterly away from any storms.
Keep in mind that gusty winds and reduced visibilities/ceilings
are possible in and near any storms. Showers/storms dissipate
after sunset this evening, then reignites along the coast and
offshore early Saturday morning. There is potential again for
reduced visibilities due to patchy fog.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Light to moderate onshore winds and 2-3 ft seas will prevail through
the end of the week and into the weekend. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. Locally higher
winds and seas will be possible near any strong storms.

JM/Bailey

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  94  74  93  74 /  40   0  40  10
Houston (IAH)  93  77  92  77 /  50  10  60  10
Galveston (GLS)  90  82  90  82 /  40  20  50  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Bailey

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion