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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

777
FXUS64 KHGX 030648
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1248 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front, and thin band of showers and storms, passes across
  the region today.

- Drier and seasonable weather tonight into Thursday.

- Warm front briefly and associated scattered showers moves back
  inland Thursday, but another cold frontal passage is forecast
  Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Cold frontal boundary and associated thin band of showers and
thunderstorms is currently tracking across northern and western
Tx. This front and precipitation should be making its way into
the Brazos Valley 5-7am, the US59/I69 corridor 1-4pm, and off the
coast just before sunset. Instability-wise, things aren`t overly
impressive for a widespread severe wx threat. That said, we`ll be
keeping an eye out for an isolated strong to severe storm or two.
Best upper diffluence should be situated across northern zones
this morning and also east of the I-45 corridor into mid-late
afternoon. We`ll also monitor for any weak seabreeze/baybreeze
that might try to develop prior to the fronts arrival that could
briefly enhance some llvl convergence near the coast late in the
day. Primary threat of any isolated strong cells would be 25-45mph
wind gusts.

Otherwise, look for decreasing cloudiness and a return to
seasonable conditions tonight and Wednesday. The front will
return north as a warm front late Wednesday night & Thursday
bringing increasing cloudiness and possibly some scattered
showers back into parts of the area as the day progresses. By
Thursday evening, chances further increase (moreso I-10 southward)
as moisture availability becomes better and we see another cold
front move across the region during the overnight hours.

Models aren`t exactly on the same page in terms of the mid level
pattern heading into the weekend. GFS indicates a quasi-zonal flow
before ridging builds overhead. ECMWF/UKMET/ICON show we might see
either a cutoff low and/or deepening trof across Mexico and
southern Texas. Either way, seasonable wx probably won`t be all
that much different inland with temps close to normal and rain
chances fairly low. Exception might be near the coast and in the
Gulf water where POPs will be higher along with breezier
winds/elevated seas. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1247 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

MVFR level CIGS have begun to creep in, and should continue to fill
in for the next couple of hours. Some sites may see temporary CIG
degradations to LIFR and patchy fog may develop around sunrise. A
cold front pushes southeast across the region tomorrow. Ahead of the
front, showers/storms are expected to develop. These storms may
cause reductions in visibility, produce frequent lightning, and
occasional gusts. General timing from the latest guidance shows
showers/storms arriving to KCLL early tomorrow morning, then to
KIAH/KHOU late morning/early afternoon, and finally to KGLS by mid
afternoon. As the front passes, winds veer from SSE to NNW. Cooler
and drier air arrives behind the front, leading to VFR conditions
after the front passes.

MLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1247 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Light to occasionally moderate south winds are expected into
the afternoon. A cold front, and associated thin broken band of
showers and thunderstorms, will push off the coast in the late
afternoon and early evening hours. Northwest to north winds will
increase behind the front, and a Small Craft Advisory may be
required for a short time period tonight in the Gulf waters until
speeds diminish Wednesday morning. Onshore flow will resume
Wednesday night as the boundary moves back north as a warm front.
Another cold front is forecast Thursday night. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  75  53  74  54 /  90   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  84  58  77  58 /  80  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  80  65  75  68 /  60  50   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...MLG
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion