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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

745
FXUS64 KHGX 111224
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
624 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Onshore winds return today, bringing another warm-up into
  Friday/this weekend. Lights showers possible.

- Patches to Areas of sea fog possible across the coastal waters
  Friday through Saturday ahead of a cold front.

- Cold front moves off the coast on Sunday with cooler weather
  into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1203 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Surface high pressure is slated to pass over SE Texas today, moving
east of the area this afternoon. Winds will veer east to
southeasterly, facilitating moisture return and WAA. Highs for today
should reach the 60s/lower 70s with lows for Friday morning in the
40s/50s and lower 60s along the coast. Might see some patchy fog
in a few spots tonight into early Friday morning.

Southerly flow and WAA will keep the warming trend in place for
Friday and portions of the weekend. Highs during this period will
reach the 70s, though early morning lows will still lean on the cool
side in the 50s/60s. A few light showers could develop during this
period, mainly near the coast due to a combination of WAA, speed
convergence and a passing midlevel shortwave. More notably,
dewpoints will be above nearshore water temperatures (lower 60s at
the GLS bay entrance based on RTOFS) during this time frame. We may
see some periods of sea fog develop over the bays/nearshore waters,
which may spill over onto land, especially during the overnight and
early morning hours. Saturday night into the early morning hours of
Sunday will be a particularly interesting time frame to watch with
respect to sea fog due to pooling moisture and easing winds leading
up to a cold front. Timing and the extend to which water
temperatures remain crucial as to how conditions will play out.
There is also the factor of showers too, which could introduce mixing
and hamper fog development to some degree. Though, if we still have
lower 60s water temperatures nearshore and the front doesn`t reach
the coast till Sunday morning as currently forecasted, then it`s
entirely possible to see areas of dense fog sea fog over the waters,
gradually creeping inland leading up to the FROPA.

Sunday should see cooler and drier weather in the wake of the cold
front. Monday remains the coldest period in the forecast with
temperatures early in the morning dropping into the upper 20s/mid
40s. During the daytime, highs for Monday should top out in the
50s/60s. High pressure moves off the east and once again we get
onshore flow Monday afternoon with WAA and moisture advection in
full swing again by Tuesday. Rain chances return for Tuesday and
increase through mid next week.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 607 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through this evening. Light
northeasterly winds early this morning will become easterly by
the late morning, then southeasterly this afternoon. This
southerly wind will lead to increasing moisture tonight leading
to the potential for patchy, dense fog. MVFR conditions will
begin to pop-up around or just after midnight with visibilities
dropping to around 4-6mi. There will be the potential for IFR to
LIFR conditions late tonight/near daybreak Friday morning with
patchy, dense fog dropping visibility down to 1mi or less. Any fog
the develops should dissipate by the mid-morning hours with VFR
conditions then prevailing into Friday evening.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Light offshore winds continue early today, but should shift onshore
this afternoon with moisture and rain chances rising into Friday.
Will have to keep an eye out for sea fog across the nearshore waters
and bays beginning on Friday morning at the absolute earliest.
Friday night into Saturday morning is the current time frame where
sea fog conditions are most optimal, though water temperatures
warming just a tad could inhibit sea fog development. If water
temperatures are very slow to recover, the worst of the sea fog may
extend through Saturday night into Sunday ahead of an approaching
cold front. Small Craft Advisories are likely on Sunday behind
the front.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  67  49  74  54 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  66  53  75  59 /   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  65  60  71  63 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion