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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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948
FXUS64 KHGX 261856
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1256 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm and humid conditions along with overnight/morning fog
  will continue into the weekend.

- A strong cold front late Sunday night into Monday morning will
  bring much colder conditions early next week, followed by a slow
  warmup deeper into the week.

- Gale conditions look increasingly likely after the front in the
  Gulf waters and potentially the bays late Sunday night through
  Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1209 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Welcome to another day of warm, humid, holiday soup. Temperatures
are expected to remain well above average through Sunday and may
flirt with records. The moist environment will keep the atmosphere
favorable for some overnight and morning fog. But the fog may not
be as widespread as recent days. In addition, we expect the threat
of sea fog to continue at the coast, but with longer breaks in the
fog during the day. But the warmth`s days are numbered due to a
looming pattern change that promises much colder weather.

A strong cold front will push through the region Sunday night
into Monday morning bringing gusty northerly winds and falling
temperatures. The front also expected to feature some rain shower
activity as it passes through the CWA. On Sunday, many locations
could be near the 80 degree mark. By Monday afternoon, many
locations could be struggling to get out of the 40s depending on
the strength of CAA. Monday overnight lows are a little tricky due
to the prospect of continued cloud cover and weakening CAA. Less
clouds and or more CAA would equate to higher chance of most areas
in the CWA experiencing a light freeze. More clouds and less CAA
would equate to slightly warmer temps. Tuesday promises another
chilly day with highs struggling to reach the low 50s. And with
expected high pressure and clearing skies Tuesday night, many
locations away from the coast and outside the urban heat island
could find themselves dealing with a light freeze on Wednesday
morning.

The early outlook for the New Year`s holiday features a gradual
warming trend. After a toasty Christmas and an arctic glancing
blow early next week, it appears we may manage a rather average
New Year`s. Highs on New Year`s are forecast to be around 60,
rising to the mid/upper 60s on New Year`s Day. The early outlook
for the New Year`s Eve festivities entails evening temperatures
falling through the 50s and into the 40s (tad warmer at the coast)
under partly cloudy skies. But I`d recommend checking the
forecast updates since any forecast 6-7 days out will have some
enhanced uncertainty.


Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 426 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

The combination of elevated winds and the wind direction being in
a more southwesterly orientation has kept dense fog from
developing in the region early this morning. There`s still some
potential for fog development for terminals south of I-10 through
16Z though as winds are expected to relax. Until then, low
cloud ceilings are the main story, which has led to a mixed bag of
MVFR to LIFR conditions with the lower ceilings closer to the
coast. Ceilings gradually lift after sunrise, but look to linger
in the MVFR range through 18Z-20Z. Winds throughout the day will
be southwesterly around 10 kt sustained with occasional 15-20 kt
gusts through the afternoon. Winds tonight into Saturday morning
remain a bit elevated and also southwesterly. Based on what we`ve
seen last night/this morning, this trends toward more of a low
cloud ceiling event rather than widespread dense fog. The
potential for dense fog is certainly not zero, especially near
the coast. However, it does look at least slightly less favorable
than the past several nights (except at GLS where the fog
potential remains generally high).

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1209 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

The pattern will remain favorable for areas sea fog during the
overnight and morning hours through the weekend. The south to
southwest trajectory of the wind along with warming water
temperatures should result in longer breaks in the fog,
particularly during the day. But as always, there are some
uncertainties regarding fog timing.

A strong cold front will expected to push offshore late Sunday
night into Monday morning. The front will bring strong winds and
building seas on its wake. Gales are likely behind the front in
the Gulf on Monday. Gusts in the Gulf could approach 45 knots. In
the bays, gusts up to 35 knots are possible. Could not rule out 40
knot gusts in the lower bays on Monday. Sustained winds are
expected to be 25 to 30 knots, though the Gulf waters could
approach 35 knots sustained. Bay waters will become very rough
while Gulf seas are expected to top 10-12 feet. Conditions
gradually improve Monday night into Tuesday. However, Small Craft
Advisory level conditions could prevail well into Tuesday. Winds
are expected to become light by Wednesday and veer onshore by
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  66  82  65  81 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  69  82  66  82 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  66  74  66  75 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion