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820
FXUS64 KHGX 072352
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
552 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm weather is expected through at least midweek next week.

- A chance showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday as a weak
  disturbance moves through the region. Will need to monitor for
  the potential for some of these storms to be on the stronger
  side.

- Potential for fog and sea fog increases tonight, and will be
  possible nightly through at least midweek next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1055 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

A weak backdoor cold front (a cold front moving in from the NE
rather than the W/NW) has moved through the region, but this will
not really be noticeable other than an easterly wind shift for
today. Passing upper-level ridging is keeping us dry and warm
(despite the passing cold front) for today with high temperatures
likely rising into the mid to upper 70s for most of the region.
Afternoon high temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 70s
through Tuesday, but a warming trend in the overnight temperatures
is expected thanks to southeasterly flow bringing moisture back
to the region. Overnight temperatures will be in the upper 40s to
low 50s tonight, then mid to upper 50s Sunday night, and the upper
50s to low 60s Monday night through at least midweek next week.

An upper-level low will be passing through Texas Tuesday into
Tuesday night, bringing our next chance for some showers and
thunderstorms. We may begin to see some light showers beginning as
early as Tuesday morning as weak shortwaves ahead of the main
disturbance passes through the region, but the chance for rain
increases late Tuesday/Tuesday night. There will be decent amounts
of shear in the area, so will have to monitor for the potential
of isolated strong thunderstorms - but, as of now, instability
looks to be relatively low. This will be something to monitor in
the next couple of days as short-range guidance comes into play.
The disturbance exits to the east by early Wednesday morning with
a strong upper-level ridge building in behind it Wednesday
afternoon into Friday. The rising heights and mostly sunny skies
will lead to high temperatures into the low to potentially mid-80s
Wednesday through Friday.

Another thing to monitor beginning tonight into at least midweek
next week will be the potential of patchy, dense fog developing
nightly.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 552 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Clear skies and southeasterly to easterly winds will persist going
into the evening hours. The main story for the overnight into
Sunday morning timeframe will be the potential for patchy fog and
low ceilings. Upper level cloud cover gradually increases
overnight, but there may be enough breaks in the cloud cover
paired with light and variable winds for IFR ceilings/visibilities
to develop. LIFR conditions cannot be entirely ruled out,
especially between 10Z-15Z. Any fog that develops will dissipated
by 15Z-16Z leading to the return of VFR conditions. Winds will
pick up out of the south-southwest around 7-10 kt through the
afternoon with a gradual transition to southerly towards the end
of the TAF period. There will be potential for another round of
fog and low ceilings Sunday night into Monday morning.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1055 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Light to occasionally moderate easterly winds will continue
through this afternoon with southeasterly to southerly winds
developing tonight and remaining in place through the next
several days.

Fog will become a concern beginning as early as tonight, and
remain possible nightly through at least midweek next week. Fog
potential tonight looks to be greatest in the northern parts of
the Bays as radiational fog spills over into the waters, but sea
fog becomes more likely beginning Sunday night as the
southeasterly winds usher in moisture. Fog coverage will be
greatest during the overnight to morning periods, but cannot out
rule some patchy fog lingering into the afternoon in the near
shore waters on Monday.

A disturbance moving through the area will bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night for
the coastal waters.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  49  79  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  51  77  57  80 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  55  67  58  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Fowler

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion