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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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006
FXUS64 KHGX 051118
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
518 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today will mark the beginning of a warming trend, though this
  first warmer day will only see temperatures slightly higher than
  Wednesday. More marked increases in temps will kick in through
  the weekend and into the first half of next week.

- Gusty winds and somewhat elevated winds offshore will be
  diminishing as the day progresses. Upper portions of Galveston
  Bay will see some negative water levels around low tide cycles
  through at least Friday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1155 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

After Tuesday`s cold front, we did get chilly overnight, but much
more of the type of winter type typical of winter in Southeast
Texas, and warmer than the cold we had to close out January. That
seasonably cool vibe carried through the day, and should be the
expectation for Thursday as well. In fact, the forecast is for
temps to get colder by dawn on Thursday morning than the previous
night, with all but the core of Houston`s heat island and the
immediate coast looking to fall into the 30s. Still, we don`t look
to fall too terribly far below average, as despite the scary sound
of 30s area-wide, only isolated spots north of Huntsville are
expected to reach the freezing mark.

Continued sun and fair weather will help Thursday afternoon, as
will building high pressure. Though, with the chilly start to the
day, forecast highs are only a scoch higher Thursday than
Wednesday`s observed values. The more significant part of the
warming trend will kick in after that, and especially once onshore
flow becomes fully established Saturday night. Fair weather,
stacked ridging, plenty of sun, and onshore flow keeping up the
overnight temperature flow is a good recipe for sending
temperatures well above seasonal averages.

How high are we talking? Well, speaking deterministically, I do
have highs in the lower 80s trying to sneak in early next week.
Overnight, forecast lows are about as close to average highs for
this time of year than average lows...or closer! Of course, as
much as I`d like my single value numbers to be perfect, I know
things won`t *exactly* turn out that way, just mostly turn out
that way. Let`s fuzz things up a bit while we explore that a bit.

Looking at the NAEFS and Euro ensemble means, we see the potential
for upper-end temperatures emerging from Friday onward. While not
widespread across the area, mean 850 temps above the 90th
percentile emerge, as do 500 mb heights. In fact, this trend is
probably even clearer in mid-level heights, with large swaths of
the area getting above the 97th percentile (NAEFS) or even the
99th percentile (Euro Ensemble) Wednesday. All in all, this
paints a pretty high confidence picture of strong ridging aloft,
helping drive potential for well above-average temperatures.

This is backed up in the Euro Ensemble`s Extreme Forecast Index,
where we continue to get suggestive hints at some potential for
extreme high temperatures. Important to note, of course, that
"extreme" here means relative to early February, not for Southeast
Texas in general. A day that particularly stands out to me is
Wednesday. That`s when we get those real high percentile 500 mb
heights, and the EFI starts to show areas in our west exceeding
0.7 - a noticeable boost to confidence over the speckles of stuff
over 0.5 we discussed yesterday.

Ultimately, this has me quite comfortable with not only following
the deterministic NBM`s trend of temperatures, but in going ahead
and modestly hedging warmer than it by replacing it with the NBM
50th percentile where those median temps are higher than the
deterministic. On Wednesday, should confidence continue to build,
we may need to even explore higher in the probabilistic
distribution!

Now, while most of the talk is about temperatures, we`re not
necessarily looking entirely for fair weather in this forecast
period. Tuesday looks interesting as a quick, but potent upper
trough shoots through the region, giving us a chance for a quick
hitter shot of rain. By how much I`ve talked up Wednesday, you can
tell it`s not going to be a prolonged impact, but it looks like a
solid enough shortwave (it has to be, to briefly subdue 90th
percentile plus mid-level ridging!) to bring us a round of
showers. And...if all the ingredients line up right, maybe even
some thunderstorms with an isolated stronger to severe storm. That
would really be trending towards more of a worst case scenario,
fortunately, not the most likely one. Am I trying to jinx that
scenario out of existence by bringing it up 6 days out? Maybe! But
also, it`s not something I can completely dismiss at this range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 513 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 30+ hours. Generally
clear skies and light n/nw winds this morning backing to the w/sw
as the day progresses. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1155 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Strong north winds and building seas persist overnight before
gradually diminishing by early Thursday. Winds become lighter and
more westerly on Friday and Saturday, before shifting to be more
southerly Saturday night. Dry weather continues through into early
next week before our next chance of rain Tuesday into Wednesday.

Closer to shore, low water levels at times of low tide continue to
plague Galveston Bay, particularly around and above Morgan`s
Point. Wednesday evening`s low tide cycle saw water levels slip to
1.3 feet below MLLW, and low tides around that -1 foot threshold
are expected through at least Friday morning`s low tide cycle, and
potentially even into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  69  43  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  65  46  75  49 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  65  52  66  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Low Water Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ335.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CST this morning
     for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Luchs

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion