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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

805
FXUS64 KHGX 141743
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1243 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and humid conditions continue today with scattered showers
  and storms this afternoon, mostly west of I-45.

- A cold front pushes through the region on Friday, bringing gusty
  north winds and much cooler conditions this weekend.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected in the wake of the front.
  Small Craft Advisories are likely, and potential gale
  conditions are trending upward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Ridging overtop the region and onshore winds at the surface should
maintain WAA/moisture advection, keeping above normal temperatures
in place through mid week. Highs remain in the upper 80s/90s with
lows in the 70s/lower 80s. Scatted showers and thunderstorms remain
possible this afternoon, though a slot of drier air is currently
pushing into the region from the east. Satellite imagery shows a
sharp moisture gradient with 2.0-2.2 inch PWs overhead, with 0.80
inch PWs pushing in from Louisiana. Best rain chances should remain
mostly west of I-45 this afternoon with a lull tonight as this drier
air fills in. Moisture and rain chances rise again Thursday into
Friday.

A cold front is expected to push into SE Texas on Friday, bringing a
significant cool down heading into the weekend. Current guidance has
this cold front reaching KCLL early in the morning, later moving off
the coast by the early afternoon. Scattered showers/storms may
develop along the front, especially near the coast where moisture is
deeper, though weak dynamics and the fast moving FROPA means that
severe/hydro concerns are low for the time being. Model guidance has
trended towards a faster FROPA with greater intensity as well,
showing high pressure behind the front reaching 1040-1045mb over the
Plains. Windy conditions are expected to set in behind the front,
reaching 15-25 mph with higher gusts through the afternoon for most
areas. Along the immediate coast and barrier islands, these winds
could reach 25-35 mph. These winds will be strongest Friday night
into Saturday morning, with Gale conditions possible over the waters.

Cooler, drier air should fill in behind the front with morning lows
for Saturday in the upper 40s/50s inland and lower 60s right along
the coast. Daytime highs will also be cooler, generally in the upper
60s/lower 70s. The coldest temperatures are still forecasted for
Sunday morning, around the upper 40s/50s inland and lower 60s at the
coast (though a few degrees cooler). Temperatures gradually warm
thereafter, with rain chances increasing into next week as coastal
trough sets up along the Texas Coast.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

The main aviation concern this afternoon is gusty conditions (20-
25kts) through at least 0Z Thursday. A few showers and storms will
be possible near the KCLL, and possibly KSGR terminals this
afternoon. Given low confidence in occurrence and intensity, have
only included VCSH for the KCLL terminal. Winds will become light
and variable tonight, before strengthening a bit by mid-Thursday
morning out of the ESE. A brief period of MVFR due to low cigs is
possible near CLL early Thursday morning. Overall, VFR conditions
are expected through most of the period.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue through mid week
and may prompt caution flags at times. A cold front is expected to
push off the coast on Friday, producing strong northerly winds and
high seas, especially Friday night and Saturday Morning. Small Craft
Advisories will be needed at minimum with Gale conditions possible.
There is a 30-60% chance of sustained winds reaching Gale force over
the Gulf waters early Saturday morning. Winds and seas begin to
decrease Saturday afternoon, subsiding into Sunday.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  69  91  66  78 /  10   0  20  10
Houston (IAH)  72  89  70  84 /   0  10  20  20
Galveston (GLS)  78  88  75  84 /   0  20  50  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion