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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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889
FXUS64 KHGX 301820
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
120 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, TROPICAL...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will be running 2-5F above normal today and Monday,
  then a bit closer to seasonable norms after that.

- NHC continues to monitor an area of low pressure drifting WNW in
  the north central Gulf. Increased chances for rainfall in our
  area Tue/Wed, some locally heavy.

- Daily chances for isolated to scattered showers/storms continues
  beyond midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

If you`re only here to read more about what`s going on in the Gulf,
skip ahead to the next two paragraphs and check out the Tropical
discussion below. A 595 dam mid-level high remains centered
around the Red River (TX/OK border) which leaves us in broad
easterly flow aloft. PW values remain on the low side ranging from
1.3-1.6", which is vaguely around the 25th percentile (~1.41").
Daytime heating and the seabreeze should be enough for spotty
coverage of showers and maybe an isolated storm or two. Best
chances for seeing rain today will be along and south of I-10 in
the afternoon hours. High temperatures this afternoon will top out
mostly in the upper 90s...and wouldn`t be entirely surprised to
see a couple of spots flirt with the 100 degree mark. Moisture
begins to gradually increase going into Monday as an area of low
pressure approaches from the east (more on that below). This
increase in moisture will likely bump up the coverage of
showers/storms in the afternoon. Temperatures on Monday afternoon
will also be mostly in the upper 90s with the potential for a few
spots reaching the triple digits. Heat indices both today and on
Monday will peak in the 104-108F range. While some locations may
reach the Heat Advisory threshold, this will be brief and not
widespread enough to warrant an issuance at this time.

Going into Tuesday is when an influx of tropical moisture pushes in
with PW values surging well above 2" and approaching the MAX
percentile (~2.45"). This comes from an area of low pressure that
the NHC is monitoring for potential tropical development over the
next few days as it drifts westward. If this system were to develop,
it would do so rather slowly so it`s potential appears to be
limited. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty in how the system
itself will evolve. In terms of the trajectory of this low, model
guidance (deterministic and ensembles) has a general consensus on
somewhere between southwestern Louisiana and the Upper Texas coast.
At the very least, the increase in moisture will bring greater
chances for showers and storms...some of which may be locally heavy
especially east of I-45.

Forecast rainfall totals will likely fluctuate over the next day
or so until there`s a better consensus on how this system will
evolve. As of right now, our latest forecast reflects 2-4"
between Monday night and Wednesday for areas east of I-45, but
higher totals certainly cannot be ruled out. Rainfall rate in
tropical environments can typically exceed 3-4"/hr, so localized
instances of flash flooding are certainly plausible. WPC has
outlined portions of Southeast Texas in a slight risk (level 2 of
4) of excessive rainfall on Tuesday. Be sure to stay up to date on
the latest forecasts. For additional details on the tropics, see
the Tropical discussion down below.

This elevated moisture looks to stick around going into at least
Thursday and potentially longer depending on which model you
believe. Increased chances of showers/storms will persist in the
afternoon hours through the end of the work week as a result. Beyond
midweek, the mid-level high and ridge axis transitions eastward
towards the east coast. Hot and humid conditions will persist though
with high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 90s and heat
indices peaking above 100 degrees. The ridge axis does look to slide
back westward going into the weekend, which explains the gradual
increase in temperatures.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

VFR conditions to start this TAF period. Satellite shows some low
level scattered cumulus, which are expected to lift and dissipate by
the evening. Winds out of the SE at 6-10 kts this afternoon become
light and VRB overnight. Winds remain light into tomorrow morning,
then increase and turn ESE at 5-8 kts by tomorrow mid afternoon.
Early tomorrow morning, some intermittent low level clouds and patchy
fog could effect terminals to the north, but the chances of reaching
MVFR thresholds are low. Both today and tomorrow, chances for
precipitation remain low, but some isolated showers/thunderstorms
can`t be ruled out, mainly towards the coast along the afternoon
seabreeze.

MLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Light southeasterly winds and low seas (1-3 ft) will persist through
Monday. Going into Monday night, winds transition to southwesterly
to westerly as an area of low pressure moves in from the east. The
National Hurricane Center is monitoring this system for potential
tropical development. Chances for development are not overly high,
but this system at the very least will bring increasing chances for
showers and storms especially for marine zones east of Freeport
Tuesday and Wednesday. Mariners should monitor the latest forecasts
for updates. Isolated to scattered showers/storms will be possible
beyond this system through the end of the week.

Batiste

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor showers/storms
associated with an area of low pressure in the north central
Gulf. This system has gotten better organized compared to what we
saw on Saturday. Slow development of this system is still possible
over the next few days as it drifts west-northwestward towards
the Louisiana/Upper Texas coasts. A short-lived tropical
depression or tropical storm cannot be entirely ruled out before
it reaches the coast Tuesday. At the very least, increased
moisture from this system will increase our chances for rainfall,
some of which may be locally heavy. Uncertainty remains in how
this system will evolve over the next few days, so exact impacts
are still tough to nail down as of right now. The probability of
tropical development as of early Sunday afternoon is 50% (medium).

Please continue to monitor the latest updates from the National
Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  99  77  97 /   0   0   0  40
Houston (IAH)  78  98  79  92 /  10  20  30  80
Galveston (GLS)  83  91  82  90 /   0  20  70  80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...MLG
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion