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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

554
FXUS64 KHGX 171715
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1215 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Last day of mentionable rain chances for the next week or so.

- Increasing temperatures through next week with triple digit heat
  indicies.

- Greater heat stress generally around Tuesday-Thursday of next
  week. Heat Safety should be practiced.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1056 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

SE Texas finds itself sandwiched between two features aloft. One is
an upper level low over West TX/New Mexico, and the other a ridge
centered over the northwestern Gulf coast. Midlevel heights within
the ridge are currently forecasted around 592-595 dam. Satellite
derived PWs range from around 1.6-2.0 inches, though low level RH is
forecasted to be fairly low each day (~40%). CAMs are pinging on
convection developing today, generally northeast of the city of
Houston (North I-10, east of I-45), likely a combination of a
lingering diffuse boundary, passing impulses and stronger heating
over that region. A few additional coastal showers are also hinted
at by the cams, though still fairly sparse. Either way, this looks
to be the best rain chances throughout the whole forecast period.

The synoptic pattern & forecast experience some slow and subtle
changes over the next several days. Midlevel heights will decrease
Sunday into early next week, though PWs will also fall in tandem
throughout this period, dropping to 1.0-1.4 inches by Monday. 850mb
temperatures will be trending upward over these next few days as
well, climbing to 19-22C by early next week. Tuesday-Thursday is
anticipated to generally be the warmest period in the forecast (so
far). The center of the ridge shifts over the TX/OK Panhandle, with
midlevel heights climbing to 594-596 dam, generally around the 90th-
99th climatological percentile for this time of the year. 850mb
temperatures during this period also increase and remain around 21-
23C.

Bottom line, expect hot weather with low rain chances and increasing
temperatures into next week. Highs will be in the upper 80s/mid 90s
this afternoon, climbing to the upper 90s next week. Heat indices
will be in the triple digits daily. Heat stress is anticipated to be
High to Extreme from Tuesday-Thursday with heat index values of 103
to potentially 111. Cannot rule out heat headlines for these days,
but regardless heat safety should be practiced. Make sure to wear
light, loose fitting cloths and drink plenty of water. Limit time
outdoors during the hottest parts of the day.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

VFR conditions w/ S to SE 7-12 knot winds expected this afternoon.
Conditions appear favorable for some shra/tsra development along
the sea / bay breeze boundary later this afternoon. Uncertainty
exists regarding the area of most-likely shra/tsra development.
However, there is a signal in the hi-res guidance for shra/tsra in
the vicinity of northern and eastern Harris County and eastern
Montgomery. Thus, we`ve added PROB30 -TSRA late this afternoon for
IAH, DWH, and CXO. In addition, there`s some evidence on satellite
that a few showers may try to develop near the coast. Thus a
PROB30 for SHRA was added for early afternoon at GLS.

Mostly VFR and light winds expected tonight, though a few spots
could find themselves falling to MVFR, particularly in our
northern zones.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1056 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

SSE-S winds 10 to 15 knots and 2-4 foot seas should prevail across
the coastal waters today into Saturday. With high pressure moving
into the northwest Gulf later in the weekend, look for wind speeds
to diminish and take on a more southwesterly component at night and
in the mornings until the seabreeze kicks in. Corresponding wave
heights will also trend down closer to 2 feet Sunday and beyond.

47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  75  91  74  92 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  78  95  76  96 /  20   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  83  90  82  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion