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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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287
FXUS64 KHGX 031847
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1247 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front, and showers and storms will continue move through
  this afternoon. A few strong storms possible.

- Drier and seasonable weather tonight into early Thursday.

- Scattered showers moves back inland Thursday, but another cold
  frontal passage is forecast Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Scattered to widespread showers with some embedded thunderstorms
will continue to move east-northeast across the rest of the region
as a cold front progresses through this afternoon. The
combination of daytime heating, and 0-6 km bulk shear of 35 to 40
knots over the next few hours will favor a slight increase in
instability (destabilization) as the boundary moves east along the
I-10 and into the coastal zones. This environment may support a
few stronger thunderstorms with gusty winds being the primary
risk. While the best dynamic and forcing for severe weather
remain well to our north; 0-1 km shear around 15-20 kts across
our northeastern counties means a brief isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out. Overall, the front is expected to cross the Houston
metro early this afternoon, reaching the bays and coastal waters
by mid-to late afternoon.

Drier and slightly cooler air filters in behind the front tonight
into Wednesday. A cool night is expected tonight with lows in the
50s and in the 60s over the Houston metro and along the coast.
Mostly sunny skies, with low humidity and highs in the 70s can be
expected for Wednesday. Take advantage of it!

Deep Gulf moisture will flow back into the region in association
with a weak surface trough tracking northward along the Texas
coast. PWs will gradually increase to the 1.4 to 1.9 inch range,
particularly along and south of I-10 Thursday into Friday. In
addition to the surface trough, another cold front is forecast to
move through later on Thursday, sweeping down off the coast by
early Friday. With enough moisture remaining over the region and
surface convergence, will probably see scattered showers with a
few thunderstorms increasing offshore and over the barrier
islands, with precipitation expanding inland during the day with
some daytime heating. Overall, the best rain/storm chances will
remain over the coastal counties through early Friday.

The main weather story Friday into the weekend is that
temperatures will be below normal over the region. The real
temperature changes should be felt Sunday, Monday and Tuesday
mornings as lower humidities are coupled with lower min
temperatures with readings in the mid 40s north to around the low
60s along the coast. Highs will generally be in the upper 60s and
low 70s through the weekend. Regarding precipitation, medium-range
models still differ in the pattern late this weekend into early
next week with the GFS suggesting a weak ridge over the Plains,
while the ECMWF continues to bring a cutoff low across Mexico,
increasing rain chances over SE TX. Overall, have kept PoPs as NBM
suggests with a 15 to 30% chance of rain/storms. Trending drier
early next week.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1243 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A passing front is bringing sub-VFR conditions to all TAF sites
as it brings numerous showers/thunderstorms. Current radar
observations show fast movement to the east and a developing
southward band, which is impacting the timing of
showers/thunderstorms in the TAFs. KCLL and KUTS are already post-
frontal at the start of the cycle, with both TAF sites back to VFR
by 20Z. Confidence in storm timing and intensity for TAF sites
further south is lower, but there is general model agreement in
showers and thunderstorms bringing MVFR cigs/vis to the metro
sites during the 18Z to 21Z period, and the coastal TAF sites
during the 19Z to 24Z period. Diurnal heating could fuel stronger
storms as the front passes, bringing a possibility of cigs/vis
below MVFR, gusty winds, and lightning. By 01Z this evening, all
TAF sites return to VFR with the front offshore. Winds go calm and
VRB at our northern TAF sites, while TAF sites further south
maintain NNW/N winds at 5-10 kts. GLS will see elevated sustained
winds of 10-15 kts continue throughout the evening and overnight
hours.

JMG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1243 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Light onshore winds will gradually transition to the north-
northwest early this evening as a cold front moves through. Winds
become moderate behind the boundary with gusts around 20 to 25
knots possible this evening through early Wednesday morning.
Caution flag conditions are expected for the BAys and Gulf waters
late this evening through early Wednesday. Small Craft Advisories
will likely be needed well offshore for a short window overnight.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of and along the
front this afternoon and late this evening. Onshore flow will
resume Wednesday night, before the next frontal passage late
Thursday night into early Friday.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  53  73  51 /  90   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  83  58  77  56 /  90  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  81  65  75  67 /  60  40   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 9 PM CST this evening
     through late tonight for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion