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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

172
FXUS64 KHGX 080621
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1221 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures through Friday. Many locations will
  flirt with some record highs.

- Another shot at sea fog tonight as winds ease down.

- Some rain chances re-enter the forecast Thursday followed by
  higher chances Friday in advance of the next cold front Friday
  night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1217 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Onshore winds have strengthened early today from a deepening surface
low near the Oklahoma Panhandle from an approaching shortwave
trough. These stronger onshore winds will mitigate the threat of sea
fog, though hazy conditions and a few patches will still be possible
in a few spots. The shortwave trough should fill northeasterly into
Thursday, pushing another dryline/cold front towards SE Texas. Due
to the shortwave filling north, this boundary will likely stall
around the northern edge of our CWA, though we`ll still see some
scattered showers out ahead of it on Thursday. Warm weather
continues with another day of highs in the 70s/lower 80s.

A much deeper mid/upper level trough is still expected to pass
through the Plains on Friday, providing better support for
showers/storms throughout the area. Modest shear and instability is
anticipated to be in place over the area, though SE Texas will be
rather distant from the area of strongest upper level support, so
convection may be rather limited to along the front itself. In any
case, much of the area will be under a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk for
severe weather on Friday. The cold front through SE Texas and off
the coast some by early Saturday morning.

Cooler and drier weather prevails over the weekend as surface high
pressure fills over the area and pushes off to the east. Highs will
generally be in the mid 50s/lower 60s with early morning lows in the
30s/40s, dipping below the freezing mark into the upper 20s in the
Piney Woods area around Crockett. Cooler weather persists through
Monday with onshore flow slated to return Tuesday, resulting in
rising temperatures and rain chances into Wednesday. A shortwave
moving eastward through Southern Texas and another trough digging
over through the Mississippi River Valley should help push a weaker
reinforcing boundary into the area around mid week, helping keep
cooler conditions in place a tad longer.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1051 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

Winds are staying strong enough to keep fog from reducing flight
category to MVFR at any TAF sites, instead with lowering CIGs
becoming the dominant restriction. As a result, the biggest change
this cycle is to remove fog mentions (though some 7+ SM fog may
still crop up intermittently) and focus on CIG trends overnight.
Other main change was to begin to bring down windspeeds at the far
end of of the cycle.

Aviators will still want to keep aware of low level winds creating
conditions of minor to moderate wind shear, but below the LLWS
threshold in the TAFs. Also, keep a few PROB30 mentions for -SHRA
at some sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1217 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Increasing southerly winds and building seas have prompted caution
flags and a Small Craft Advisory offshore early today. The increased
winds should help further mitigate the risk of sea fog, but it will
not completely get rid of it. Winds decrease this evening into
Friday ahead of a cold front, thus we will have to keep an eye out
for sea fog leading up to the front. This front should push off
the coast Friday night. Moderate to strong northerly winds behind
the front will likely result in Small Craft Advisories over the
better half of the weekend. Winds and seas slowly decrease into
next week.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  80  64  75  46 /  20  10  60  10
Houston (IAH)  79  68  79  52 /  30  10  60  50
Galveston (GLS)  76  66  75  55 /  20  20  50  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this afternoon for
     GMZ350-355-375.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ370.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion