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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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101
FXUS64 KHGX 021025
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
525 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot summer weather continues through the forecast period.

- We`ll need to monitor for potential isolated to scattered
  showers/storms near the coast and offshore in the Gulf today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Aug  2026

Our long awaited "cold" front is pushing through Texas, bringing
much lower dew points / humidity in its wake. The front has been
somewhat lagging, with the leading edge just reaching the northern
fringe of our CWA as of the time of writing this AFD (~12AM CDT).
The increasingly diffused front is expected to stall near the coast
and could provide a focal region for convective development. Some of
the CAMs suggest isolated to scattered activity will develop near
the coast and offshore during the morning hours. So we`ll be keeping
a watchful eye on the radar just in case.

Dew points are forecast to drop well down into the 60s for most
areas north of I-10 this afternoon. We may even see 50s dew points
in the Brazos Valley. Meanwhile, coastal dew points are forecast to
remain in the mid/upper 70s. Quite soupy for our beach friends.
Inland afternoon temperatures are expected to be in the upper 90s,
with low 90s at the coast. But the highest heat indices may actually
occur at the coast (104-106) due to the higher humidity. With a
potential lingering frontal boundary in place, I guess we cannot
completely rule out an isolated shower or storm along the boundary
this afternoon.

The low-levels look to remain dry on Monday, with a similar dew
point regime as Sunday. Meanwhile, ridging aloft should strengthen,
warming the overall temperature profile. Therefore, temperatures in
many spots may be flirting with the 100 degree mark. Ridging aloft
should increase as the week progresses while deep LL onshore flow
becomes established thanks to the increasing influence of a sfc high
well to our east. This combo should keep conditions hot and
increasingly humid. Perhaps we can lower temps somewhat later in the
week due to the potential for some increased cumulus as well as
diurnally influenced isolated shower / thunderstorm activity. But we
see no real relief from the heat. Tis August in SE TX.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 525 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Mainly a wind forecast, but the forecast gets a bit more complex
closer to the coast where interactions with a frontal boundary
looks to bring multiple wind shifts. For the northern terminals
(IAH and northward), anticipating just light northerly winds and
VFR conditions to prevail through the afternoon. Further south,
winds start out light and westerly this morning then becoming
northwesterly in the late morning. This will then be followed by a
shift to southerly winds as the front retreats northward. There is
ongoing scattered showers/storms near Matagorda Bay and offshore
early this morning. While we can`t entirely rule out a rogue
shower along the coast throughout the day, the potential is too
low to include any SH/TS mentions in this TAF package.

Winds become light and variable overnight into Monday morning.
It`s worth noting that with low-level moisture increasing
overnight, there is at least some potential for reduced
visibilities due to patchy fog for western areas early Monday
morning. Uncertainty is a bit too high at the moment though to
include any mentions of this in this TAF package.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Gusty southwest winds will gradually decrease overnight into
Sunday morning. A frontal boundary will approach from the north,
stalling and becoming increasingly diffused near the coast. The
front could help spark off a few showers and thunderstorms along
the coast and over the open Gulf. Best chance of a heavier thunderstorm
is offshore. Light west to southwest winds are expected Sunday
into Monday, followed by light to moderate south winds Tuesday and
Wednesday. Winds may become more southeasterly by the end of the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  97  73  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  98  77 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  93  82  92  83 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT this morning
     for GMZ335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ355.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
     for GMZ355.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
     for GMZ375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion