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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion
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568
FXUS64 KHGX 182246
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
546 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and warmer conditions will persist through the week and
into the weekend.
- A significant warming trend Friday into the weekend with some
locations potentially seeing their first 90-degree days of the
year.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026
Dry and hot conditions, with the potential for near-record or record
breaking temperatures at some locations are the main weather story
over the next several days. Surface high pressure centered to our
east continues to dominate the weather across the region today with
dry and warm southerly winds. Aloft, the region continues to be
influenced by a strong high pressure ridge (594 dam) centered over
the southwestern CONUS, bringing unseasonably high temperatures for
mid/late March. Heat will intensify over the next 72 hours as this
ridge slightly amplifies and expands eastward into the region from
Friday into the weekend. Ensemble guidance continues to show 850
temperatures close to the 90th - 99.5th percentile of climatology
(according to NAEFS and GEFS), especially west of I-45. Based on the
NBM probabilistic data for temperatures, the Brazos Valley area
(CLL) will have the highest probability (around 70 to 85 percent)of
temperatures greater than 90F on Saturday.
By early next week, the ridging aloft breaks down a bit as a weak
and generally dry surface cold front attempts to move southward
through the region. No significant impacts are expected, other than
temperatures becoming a couple of degrees "less warm" with highs
mainly in the mid 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 545 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026
We may see some shallow, patchy fog try to develop west of the
I-45 corridor in the 9-13z timeframe. Otherwise, continued VFR for
the remainder of the period. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026
With the high pressure centered over north-central Gulf, the region
continues to be influenced by light to occasionally moderate
southeasterly flow and seas of around 1 to 3 ft. This pattern will
persist through the weekend. Little to no rain is expected.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 50 83 54 87 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 54 82 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 62 72 64 75 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...47
MARINE...JM
NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion