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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

787
FXUS64 KHGX 281749
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1249 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Offshore convection will continue through this afternoon with
  scattered inland showers/storms mainly south of I-10. Gusty
  winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall are the main
  threats.

- Hot and humid conditions with low chances for showers/storms
  will continue into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Water vapor imagery and GOES derived PW imagery indicate the
presence of drier mid level air spreading in from the north in the
wake of a weak disturbance moving into Louisiana. This should
continue into the afternoon, however an axis of higher theta-e air
resides along and south of I-10 currently and this is expected to
remain in place into the evening hours. While weak forcing for
ascent associated with the disturbance will likely be present into
the afternoon, additional convection will largely be driven by
low level moisture convergence during peak afternoon heating.
Forecast soundings are similar to yesterday with weak deep layer
wind fields and steep low level lapse rates. This will support an
isolated strong wind threat with any storms this afternoon and
evening. Locally heavy rainfall will also be a threat although
storm motions should be sufficiently fast to inhibit a more
substantial threat for flooding.

Coverage of showers and storms will diminish after dark with
continued northerly flow aloft shunting better moisture farther
south, although some offshore convection may continue through the
overnight hours. A notable drop in deep layer moisture content is
forecast for Saturday, particularly north of I-10 and additional
convective chances will be tied to the sea breeze where PoPs will
generally be 20% or less. High temperatures will typically run in
the mid/upper 90s inland with lower 90s along the coast both this
afternoon and again Saturday. Slightly drier air north of I-10
will keep heat indices around 105 both days.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

The latter half of the weekend will continue to feature relatively
warm and humid conditions as mid level ridging over West Texas
expands eastward. Afternoon convective chances will be largely
tied to the sea breeze with PoPs 10-20% on Sunday and Monday. An
upper level disturbance will undercut the southern periphery of
the expanding ridge early next week as deep layer moisture
increases again. This should result in an uptick in coverage of
afternoon showers/storms, particularly on Tuesday and Wednesday.
No significant deviations in afternoon highs/heat indices are
expected through the middle of next week with readings in the
mid/upper 90s and heat index values around 105 degrees.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Current VFR conditions expected to prevail until the 20Z to 24Z
period. TSRA used for the southern TAF sites to account for enhanced
forcing between a coastal front and the sea breeze. Models more
uncertain with storms north of I-10, but current trends point toward
TS forming closer to CXO and IAH, warranting a -TSRA for those sites
and the use of -SHRA for the remaining northern sites. Any TSRA that
do form could bring reduced vis, cig, and strong gusts. Beyond 24Z,
winds become light and VRB, leading to possible pathcy fog and
lowered cigs.

JMG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Sporadic afternoon convection is expected across the offshore
waters today and again on Saturday with southerly winds generally
10 kt or less outside of convective areas. Onshore flow 5-10 kt is
expected to continue through the weekend and into next week with
low chances for showers and thunderstorms. Seas will generally run
1 to 3 feet through the period although strengthing winds and
locally higher seas are expected toward the middle part of next
week.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  75  99  75  97 /  10   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)  79  98  78  97 /  30  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  82  89  83  91 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion