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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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990
FXUS64 KHGX 301834
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
134 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and mostly dry weather will continue for the rest of the
  work week.

- A cold front will bring slightly increased rain chances to the
  entire region late Saturday or Sunday.

- Next week`s outlook features seasonably hot and humid conditions
  with isolated afternoon showers and storms near the coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

This week`s weather can largely be characterized by three words:
wash, rise, repeat. Today is no exception with highs in the mid to
upper 90s and heat index values between 105-108 in most locations.
Similar to the past couple days, a modest seabreeze circulation is
expected to develop off of the Gulf and Galveston bay that could
provide just enough low-lovel convergence to initiate isolated
showers this afternoon. A complicating factor to generating precip
today, compared the the previous couple days, is the development
of a localized mid-level high overtop of Southeast Texas based
around 700 mb. Staunch subsidence aloft may end up squashing all
shower development, but we kept the 20% PoPs in the forecast since
the potential is still there. The risk of thunderstorms is even
lower, less than 10%. The increased subsidence is also helping
reduce the coverage of diurnal cumulus, which will likely nudge
afternoon highs a degree or two higher than yesterday`s values.

The aforementioned mid-level high is forecast to wash out this
evening as a stronger mid- and upper-level high to our northwest
starts to break down. We will still be under a localized area of
mid-level confluence, and therefore we have lowered PoPs tomorrow
along the seabreeze circulation to below 15%. Temperature and heat
index values tomorrow will be similar today. It`s worth noting
that we do not plan to issue a heat advisory since the heat index
at most locations will remain below our advisory threshold of 108.
Despite this, we`re still forecasting heat index values between
100-108 through Saturday. At the end of the day, the human body
and an animal`s response to heat does not vary much between 107
and 108...therefore proper heat safety messaging and precautions
should continue to be taken regardless of the presence of an
advisory or not.

As alluded to above, the mid-level high that has been dominating
the local weather pattern this week will break down as a trough
deepens over the eastern CONUS. This will allow for a rare
summertime cold front to advance as far south as the I-10 corridor
late Saturday or Sunday. Before the front arrives late Saturday,
compressional warming ahead of the front should result in another
day of temperatures in the upper 90s, with a few locations peaking
in triple digits. The overall risk of sites meeting or exceeding
100 is lower than previously indicated, but most locations in the
forecast area have a 20-30% of reaching triple digits on Saturday.
After FROPA, it will still be hot but dew point temperatures will
be several degrees lower. This will be most evident for areas
in/near the Brazos Valley where some upper 50s dew points will
filter into the region on Sunday.

The front will also bring increased rain chances, but I wouldn`t
get your hopes too high since PoPs are generally only 20-30%. The
lower PoPs with this forecast update are largely a function of
frontal timing. Most of the current guidance indicates nocturnal
FROPA, therefore all forcing for ascent will be brought by the
front itself. If the front is able to speed up or slow down and
move through with basically any diurnal heating, expect PoPs to
increase.

Unfortunately, a majority of the energy associated with the front
will move east quickly, meaning the front will become stationary
Sunday and wash out by early next week. Next week`s pattern looks
to be more typical for this time of the year with a steady fetch
of southerly flow moving inland from the Gulf with seasonal
temperatures, triple digit heat index values, and daily rain
chances along seabreeze fronts.

Bonnette

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

The MVFR ceilings observed in the northern TAF sites this morning
have lifted and given way to VFR conditions, which will mostly
prevail for this period. Isolated SHRA are possible with the
afternoon sea-breeze, but model confidence is too low to mention in
the TAFs. MVFR cigs/vis are possible overnight and early Friday
morning in the northern TAF sites within the 1000 to 2000 ft
layer, which will burn off by mid morning.

JMG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Light to moderate southwesterly winds and 2-3 foot Gulf seas are
expected today and tomorrow. Southwesterly flow will increase this
weekend to around 15-20 knots, possibly higher at times. Seas may
increase to around 4 feet, with Caution Flags likely. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are also forecast Saturday night and
Sunday. The outlook for early next week features light to moderate
southwesterly winds, 2-3 foot seas, and isolated showers and
storms along the sea breeze boundary each afternoon.

Bonnette

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  99  77  98 /   0   0   0  20
Houston (IAH)  78  99  79 100 /   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  82  89  83  94 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bonnette
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...Bonnette

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion