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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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FXUS64 KHGX 221720
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1220 PM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR this afternoon and this evening with high clouds streaming southward
across the area. Could see another brief period of MVFR/IFR ceilings
and/or fog toward morning. Look for VFR by mid-morning and for the
rest of the day tomorrow. Expecting mainly SW to S winds 5 to 10
knots inland sites and 10 to 15 knots at GLS.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Another hot day on tap today, but without the blanket of cirrus to
limit maximum heating potential. Model soundings continue to
suggest limited mixing today, keeping dew points elevated and heat
index values peaking at 105-110. Accordingly, a Heat Advisory
remains in effect today from noon to 8pm. Cirrus clouds will move
over the area again late tonight which will help keep overnight
lows in the upper 70s to low 80s along the coast. For areas IAH
southward, this marks several days in a row where the temperatures
have not gotten below 80, so dangerous heat conditions will be
around throughout the overnight period, as well. 22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Patchy fog this morning over the southwestern counties should be
short lived after the sun comes up. Yesterday was hot with
numerous sites reporting 108 heat index and that was with cirrus
that helped to keep temperatures down below the forecast highs.
Today the cirrus has departed and skies should be mostly sunny to
sunny by 9 am. Some cirrus will probably move into the area this
afternoon but not nearly as widespread nor as thick. Winds will
again start out west- southwesterly peaking in the morning then
becoming more southwest and even south by late afternoon.
Soundings indicate a little more moisture is present today and
that mixing will still occur but will likely not be as dry as
yesterday. This should yield higher heat index readings today than
yesterday. Will continue the heat advisory and given that
temperatures will probably even warmer Monday with nearly the same
moisture heat advisory criteria should be reached again with 108
or greater popping up throughout the afternoon.

Sharp ridge axis over the area will finally rotate southwestward
and flow aloft will become more northerly late Monday. A s/w is
progged to drop into the area Tuesday along with a weak frontal
boundary and could spark a few showers and thunderstorms but will
bring cloud cover. This should lead to lower afternoon
temperatures and heat index readings closer to 105 Tuesday. The
front washes out over the area Wednesday with moisture pooled over
the area. Subsidence returns and could see capping develop
lessening the rain chances at least over the north. A jumbled wind
pattern ensues Wed-Fri dominated by the seabreeze and low level
ridging. Temperatures should warm up Wednesday through Friday and
will remain well above normal.

Record high minimum temperature at IAH is possible today - 80 is
the record set back in 1995.

A large plume of Saharan dust currently over the Eastern Caribbean
will move into the Gulf and could get carried into SETX on
Wednesday...possibly more concentrated in the southwestern
counties. Plenty of time to refine that forecast in the coming
days.

45

MARINE...
Surface high pressure over the southern Gulf will keep south to
southwest winds in place through Tuesday morning. Winds may briefly
strengthen into the 15-20 knot range tonight as this surface high
wobbles northward, strengthening the surface pressure gradient, and
caution flags may be needed. A weak cold front approaching the
waters during the day Tuesday may bring a few showers and storms as
well as a light/variable to light/offshore flow during the mid-week
period. Light onshore flow looks to resume by late in the week.

Huffman

FIRE...
Little change in overall conditions are expected today and tomorrow
with minimum relative humidities falling into the 25-35 percent
range during the afternoon hours. However, light winds will limit
overall fire weather threats during this time. The Texas A&M
Dispatch Tracker reported one fire yesterday in Houston County and
hot and dry conditions will continue to aid isolated fire starts as
finer fuels cure further.

Huffman

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)     102  77 104  78  97 /   0   0   0  20  20
Houston (IAH)             100  78 101  79  96 /   0   0   0  20  30
Galveston (GLS)            92  82  91  82  90 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Brazos...Burleson...
     Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal
     Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...
     Fort Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...
     Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...
     Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...
     Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern
     Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Trinity...
     Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for the following
     zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Brazos...Burleson...
     Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal
     Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...
     Fort Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...
     Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...
     Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...
     Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern
     Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Trinity...
     Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion