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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

731
FXUS64 KHGX 100524
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1224 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mother`s Day Sunday will remain mostly dry before the early
  afternoon as another round of severe thunderstorms is expected
  to emerge southward from Central Texas through the evening and
  overnight.

- Some isolated severe thunderstorms could form ahead of the main
  line of thunderstorms, and both rounds of storms will carry the
  threat of damaging winds and large hail.

- Dry and seasonable conditions are expected through the following
  workweek with a gradual warm-up by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Weather conditions in the next 24-48 hours will be the most
active in the forecast period across southeast Texas. This is due
to a swiftly-moving embedded trough that is finishing emergence
from the Intermountain West into the Southern Great Plains this
morning. Attendant to this troughing is the frontal boundary
driving our next chance of severe weather arriving later today.
The favorable atmospheric environment ahead of this boundary
consists/will consist of elevated mid-level lapse rates of 7-7.5
C/km and CAPE values in excess of 2500+ J/kg, while bulk shear of
30+ kts will also aid updraft separation for large hail production
(especially with any isolated supercells that could form in the
evening). The main line of strong to severe thunderstorms will
begin to arrive closer to the evening twilight hours across Piney
Woods zones, reaching the I-10 corridor before midnight. Damaging
winds will become a more predominant threat overnight as the line
of storms congeals and reaches the Upper Texas shoreline.

By the dawn hours of Monday morning, the storms and frontal
boundary will be offshore with ensuing post-frontal conditions
elsewhere, including some fairly seasonable temperature
maximums/minimums in the low-to-mid 80s/upper 60s respectively.
Surface northerly winds will continue later into Tuesday before
veering back as the surface ridge axis shifts to our east towards
the lower Mississippi River Valley. By the end of the next
workweek, the 70-degree isodrosotherm makes its return with long-
range guidance very gradually re-introducing some rain chances
into next weekend. By then, some temperature maximums could reach
the 90-degree mark.

Cassel

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms currently ongoing
west of I-45. Expect this activity to persist through 02Z-03Z
before dissipating. MVFR to IFR ceilings expected to develop
overnight across most terminals along with the potential for
reduced visibilities due to patchy fog. This is especially the
case if any of the area terminals see rainfall late this afternoon
or evening. Winds will remain light and variable through Sunday
morning before becoming light and predominantly southeasterly by
the mid-morning hours on Sunday. MVFR ceilings likely lingering
through 16Z-17Z before lifting to VFR areawide.

Late Sunday evening into the overnight hours (most likely
beginning around or after 03Z/Monday), a line of storms is
expected to push through the area along a frontal boundary. Some
of these storms may be strong to severe and capable of producing
strong winds and hail. Northerly winds and MVFR ceilings are
anticipated in the wake of the front.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

The next 24-48 hours will be the most eventful across marine zones
due to frontal passage beginning just before midnight on Sunday.
A line of strong thunderstorms (some still severe) will emerge
offshore, producing some moderate downdraft winds. After the
storms abate in the dawning hours on Monday, post-frontal
northerly winds will remain through the rest of the day before
veering back onshore by Wednesday through the rest of the drier
and milder workweek ahead. All post-frontal winds are expected to
remain below the threshold requiring issuance of a Small Craft
Advisory at this time.

Cassel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  87  66  79  63 /  20  70  20   0
Houston (IAH)  88  69  83  66 /  20  60  20   0
Galveston (GLS)  83  74  83  72 /   0  60  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cassel
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Cassel

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion