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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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765
FXUS64 KHGX 021903
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
103 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and humid today.

- Cold front brings showers/thunderstorms on Tuesday. A few
  locally heavier thunderstorms possible.

- Autumn-like air behind the front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

A mid-upper level ridge overhead will continue to dominate the
local weather pattern, providing enough subsidence for mostly dry
conditions and partly cloudy skies. In addition, an mid-upper
level trough will be making its way across the Southern Plains
today. An associated cold front is expected to move over the
northern and into the central portions of Texas later today and
tonight. In response, the pressure gradient will tighten over
Southeast Texas, leading to south-southeast winds at 8-12 mph with
a few higher gusts on occasion this afternoon. Temperatures will
also be on the warmer side, with many locations in the mid 80s, in
particular for those west of I-45 and south of I-10. We could
start to see some showers developing late tonight as the front
makes its way towards the Brazos Valley.

The cold front is expected to reach the Brazos Valley sometime
between 6-9AM, the Houston Metro region between 10AM-1PM, and the
coastal locations between 2PM-5PM. There is still some minor
differences in the timing of the front in several of the models;
Thus, the timing mentioned above is an estimated time leaning
heaviest on the latest NBM guidance. The front could still be a
couple of hours faster or slower. With respect to rain chances, we
can expect showers and thunderstorms increasing ahead and along
the cold front. Look for scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms developing over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods
region early Tuesday morning, expanding southward into the Houston
Metro area during the mid to late morning hours. The coasts
should see start to see better rain chances during the early
afternoon hours.

Looking into how instability isn`t as impressive ahead of the
front, it seems that most of the activity should be rain, with a
few strong thunderstorms occurring at times. That being said, SPC
has placed a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of Severe Weather for
our eastern counties, along a line that extends from Houston
County southward to Liberty County. The main severe weather
hazards are damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. PWs rise to
1.8-2.1 inches ahead of the front. Therefore, heavy rainfall is
also possible at times and could lead to ponding of water along
roadways and low-lying areas. WPC continues a Marginal Risk (level
1 of 4) of excessive rainfall mainly for areas east and north of
Harris County. Make sure to have multiple ways of receiving
weather updates and alerts and check the road conditions before
starting your commute.

Rain is expected to ebb shortly after the passage of the cold
front, with many locations being rain-free during the mid
afternoon hours over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods, the
evening hours for areas along I-10, and later on Tuesday night for
the coastal areas. Winds will also become northwest to north in
the wake of the front and remains in that general direction
through Wednesday evening. Drier and cooler conditions are also
expected after the FROPA, although our highs only lower by about
10 degrees or so on Wednesday. Expect highs in the lower to upper
70s, coolest over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods. The inland
overnight lows will generally be in the 50s Tuesday night and the
upper 40s to upper 50s Wednesday night.

The forecast for Thursday and Friday will be a little bit tricky,
due to some uncertainties in the models. Some models hint at a
surface coastal trough possibly developing Thursday morning over
the Texas Coasts followed by a weak re-inforcing cold front.
There`s also the potential for the passage of weak mid-level vort
maxes embedded in the southern periphery of a mid-level trough
moving over the Southern Plains. These features could bring in
isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over us,
but will depend on how quick moisture can recover along the
surface. The GFS shows PWs between 1.3-1.7 inches by Thursday
morning but ECMWF is much drier with PWs of 0.8-1.1 inches for the
same timeframe. If GFS is correct, then there is a good chance
for those scattered showers. Otherwise, we could see activity to
be mainly isolated for much of the inland areas. It seems we could
have even cooler conditions in the wake this second front for the
upcoming weekend.

And I`m sure everyone will enjoy the fall vibes!

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1242 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Ceilings have started to improve to VFR early this afternoon and
will persist through early evening. A similar forecast is expected
tonight, with low clouds and patchy fog developing mainly after
03Z Tue. MVFR to occasional LIFR cigs are anticipated, becoming
more widespread after 06Z Tues. A cold front is progged to move
through the terminals during the day, bringing showers and
thunderstorms along the boundary. Latest guidance brings the front
to near 11-12Z at KCLL/KUTS, and to KIAH/KHOU by late
morning/early afternoon. MVFR to occasional IFR conditions are
expected with the heaviest showers/storms. FROPA is forecast at
KIAH by early Tuesday afternoon, with NW winds established by late
afternoon/early evening. Light SE winds will continue this
afternoon and evening, gradually transitioning to the SW then NW
as the boundary moves through.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1242 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Light to occasionally moderate southeast winds are expected
today, veering south on Tuesday. A cold front will move across
Southeast Texas on Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms
over the bays and Gulf waters during the late morning to late
night hours. Moderate to occasionally strong north to northwest
winds are expected to develop in the wake of the front and seas
will build to 3-5 feet. Caution flags will be needed Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Winds relax and seas subside Wednesday
afternoon/evening. Rain chances could return late Thursday into
Friday as a coastal trough develops over the Texas Coasts followed
by a reinforcing cold front. Winds will be onshore on Thursday,
then back to offshore on Friday in the wake of the FROPA.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  86  68  75  51 /   0  30  90   0
Houston (IAH)  84  72  81  57 /   0  10  90  20
Galveston (GLS)  80  75  81  64 /   0  10  60  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cotto
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion