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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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464
FXUS64 KHGX 301828
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
128 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances expected through Saturday as moisture levels
  increase and a few upper level disturbances pass through.

- Dry and warmer conditions expected Sunday into Monday.

- The next chances for rain/storm will arrive early next week
  along and ahead of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

A mid to upper level shortwave moving in from Central and South
Central Texas today is a little stronger and faster than what the
models depicted yesterday. A few fairly healthy vort maxes
embedded within the shortwave have also been tapping into a moist
airmass associated with a weak coastal trough over the Western
Gulf and Texas Coasts. This combination has been producing
scattered to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms, which
are now moving over Jackson, Matagorda and Wharton Counties.
During the afternoon and evening hours, the shortwave, vort maxes,
and moist airmass will progress east resulting in periods of
isolated to scattered showers and storms for much of Southeast
Texas, with the higher chances focused over the Gulf waters and
coastal counties.

The moist airmass will increase our PWs to 1.7 to 2.1 inches
today, and based on the environmental conditions, periods of
moderate to heavy showers can occur at times. We will need to keep
an eye on slow moving showers that may lead to ponding of water
along roadways and low lying areas. There is a bit of a signal for
showers to slow their eastward progression later today as well.
WPC currently has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive
rainfall for areas along and south of I-10.

East to southeast winds will be between 5-10 mph, but can be
slightly stronger in and around showers and storms. Occasional
gusts of around 20 mph is also possible. Moreover, a few
waterspouts or a tornado could develop this afternoon around the
Matagorda Bay region, where SPC now has a Marginal Risk (level 1
of 5) of Severe Weather.

Overcast skies and rainfall will keep us on the cooler side today
with highs generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s areawide. The
lows will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. We will continue to
carry rain chances in tonight`s forecast as the shortwave makes
its way towards East Texas.

Looking into how much faster the shortwave is expected to move
and noticing that we could have weak ridging building after it
along with slightly drier air, rain chances on Saturday may be
lower than what is currently on this forecast issuance. Most of
the energy associated with the shortwave ejects east into
Louisiana near sunrise, and we become fairly zonal aloft
thereafter. One thing that could still lead to a few showers and
storms, however, is a weak surface boundary potentially moving
west to east during the day. Will keep 30-50% PoPs for now, but
these values could change in tonight`s forecast update.

Mostly tranquil and slightly warmer conditions are expected for
Sunday and Monday as ridging becomes stronger overhead. A stronger
mid to upper level trough will move across the Southern Plains
early next week, which will then push a cold front into Southeast
Texas sometime Tuesday. Model guidance is a little faster with the
timing of the front today compared to yesterday, with the front
now moving quickly over the Brazos Valley near sunrise and
reaching the coastal areas shortly afternoon noon. The main change
in the forecast associated to the recent guidance was shifting
the timing of the higher PoPs to earlier in the day as well as the
timing of the wind shift in the wake of the front. There is still
some uncertainty with respect to the potential of strong to
severe storms ahead and along the front. Expect drier and cooler
conditions after the FROPA.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

SHRA will increase in coverage from southwest to northeast this
afternoon, with most terminals receiving at least some RA this
afternoon. The exception could be GLS, where SHRA may hold off
until this evening. Any period of moderate SHRA will easily result
in occasional MVFR conditions. TSRA is not out of the question.
However, the environment will be most favorable for thunderstorms
near the coast, where we do have a VCTS this evening at GLS. Later
tonight, we expect more widespread MVFR and potentially IFR
(primarily after 09UTC). For now, we`ve hinted at the IFR
potential via SCT007-SCT009 in most TAF sites. Sub-VFR conditions
could hold well into tomorrow, especially north of IAH.

Self

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Light to occasionally moderate east to southeast winds and seas
of 2 to 4 feet are expected through the weekend. A coastal trough
over the TX coasts and mid to upper level shortwave moving
overhead is tapping into the moist airmass over the Western Gulf
and producing scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Higher winds and seas are possible in and around
strong storms. In addition, waterspouts will be possible for
Matagorda Bay and the adjacent waters. Rain chances continue on
Saturday as the shortwave progresses eastward.

Elevated water levels over the Bays can be expected through early
next. We will have low rain chances on Sunday and Monday as high
pressure builds overhead. Winds could slightly increase late
Monday as the local pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold
front. Shower and storm chances will return ahead of the FROPA
late Monday into Tuesday. There are uncertainties in the forecast
models concerning the timing of the FROPA, and it could push into
the coastal waters sometime Tuesday afternoon. Timing could change
a bit during the next few forecast updates. Expect stronger
northwest or north winds and building seas in the wake of the
front. Caution flags and Small Craft Advisories may be needed.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  64  80  66  83 /  60  30  10   0
Houston (IAH)  67  80  69  83 /  40  40  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  70  79  71  80 /  60  50  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cotto
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion