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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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664
FXUS64 KHGX 242322
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
622 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly cooler temperatures (still above normal) through
  Saturday.

- Rain and storm chances increase next week.

- Cold front mid-week??

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

The weak boundary we have been talking about is in the area, but
rather diffuse. From wind observations, it`s likely just south of
the Houston metro area, but the lower dewpoints (not much lower)
are farther north toward Lufkin. Temperatures mid-day are
currently running an average of 2-4 degrees cooler than this time
yesterday, so at least there`s a small improvement! That though
with the dewpoints being slightly lower, more efficient warming
could still occur this afternoon and bring those temps right back
up to near yesterday. A few (very few) showers have been
developing south of the front, generally south of a line from
Freeport to Victoria. This will continue this afternoon, but
likely continue to drift farther south and out of our area.

As the briefly drier air continues to drift in tonight, we will
expect to see some cooler low temperatures across the area
tonight. Some outlying locations could drop into the upper 60s,
but will likely not see that for the city. Climo note: IAH has not
had a low temperature below 70 since May 28th. I dont think it
happens tonight, but it may not be too far away! (more on that in
a moment.) Similar conditions should persist through Friday into
Saturday with the slightly cooler temps - low to mid 90s for
highs and upper 60s to lower 70s for lows before moisture starts
to return with onshore flow later in the weekend.

Moving into next week we`ll be watching a pattern change with the
ridge that has been in place over us shifting south and weakening
a bit. A few things we`ll be keeping an eye on...Pacific moisture
in the mid-levels, Gulf moisture in the low levels, and a trough
progressing eastward from the Pacific. There are differences in
timing of especially the Pacific moisture and trough between
models, and this phasing will be key to how much deep moisture we
get moving toward Texas by mid-week, but the hope is that we can
get some increased rain chances in here by mid-week ahead of a
cold front. GFS ensembles have been more consistent and wetter for
our area while ECMWF has trended toward a the trough weakening as
it approaches and a drier solution. So we wont get too specific
about the details this far out, but with average or slightly
higher than average confidence, have medium to maybe high rain
chances Tuesday into Wednesday followed by the first actually
noticeable cold front of the season with temps at least back to
around normal. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

VFR conditions expected through this TAF cycle. Tomorrow will
largely be a rinse and repeat of today. Winds overnight will be calm
and VRB and then remain NE/ENE throughout the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

An isolated shower or storm will continue this afternoon mainly
around the Matagorda Bay area. Otherwise expect a moderate
northeasterly flow as a weak cold front sage through the region.
Weak to moderate east to northeast flow continues through early
Saturday before becoming more southeast through the early part of
next week with 2-3 foot seas. By mid-week we`ll could see an
increase to moderate to strong winds and would expect an
associated increase in seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  71  95  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  73  92  73  92 /   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  81  88  81  88 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PH
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...PH

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion