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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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800
FXUS64 KHGX 062335
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerously hot conditions will continue through the forecast
  period. Daily widespread heat indices of 105-107F with locally
  higher values over 108F are likely.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
  and Tuesday afternoon.

- High pressure and drier air building in the area by midweek,
  reducing precipitation chances. Rain/storm chances return late
  in the week and into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

A mid-level low pressure system over the southern plains is
influencing our region, supporting another round of isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms today.

Conditions are conducive for convection, with PWAT values near 1.8-
2.1 inches, ample instability, and little to no capping. However,
some mid level dry air may be an inhibiting factor, similar to what
occurred over the weekend. While there is a low probability of MCS
development overnight in our northern areas, small scattered storms
during the late afternoon are the more likely scenario. In the early
morning from 6am-8am patchy fog along the west side of I-45 can be
expected.

Slightly drier air will move into the area Tuesday into Wednesday
gradually decreasing precipitation chances. Some scattered showers
are still expected Tuesday, with highest chances centered around the
Piney Woods region. Precipitation chances will continue to decrease
into late Wednesday and Thursday as a plume of Saharan dust will be
arriving, bringing even drier air, possible haze, and reduced air
quality.

Temperatures throughout the week will remain in the mid to high 90s
with heat indices approaching advisory level by the end of the week.
However, friday into the weekend will also see more widespread
showers/storms than what have been seen over the last week. Whether
or not heat advisory criteria will be met will depend on the timing
and location of these showers and thunderstorms.

Wingo

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Seabreeze showers and thunderstorm are beginning to wind down
across the region early this evening. Anticipate widespread VFR by
sunset and persisting through much of the evening and overnight
period. Patchy fog may develop after midnight tonight, mainly
west of I-45. Both SREF and HREF show medium probabilities (30-50%
chance) of MVFR/IFR visibilities for a couple of hours around
sunrise Tuesday. Maintained TEMPO groups at KCLL, KUTS, KCXO,
KDWH, KSGR, and KLBX for brief reduced visibilities to 6SM.
Otherwise, VFR prevails through the morning and into Tuesday
afternoon. Seabreeze showers and thunderstorms will once again
develop by or just after midday. Confidence and probabilities are
are too low to mention any TS in the TAFs at this time, but may
need to be added or amended at a later time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Light onshore winds (around 10 kt) and low seas (1-3 ft) will
prevail through at least midweek. Towards the end of the work week,
winds slightly increase and come close to the caution flag threshold
at times during the nighttime hours. These increased winds will also
increase offshore seas to around 3-4 ft and could lead to an
increasing risk of rip currents going into the weekend. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible over the waters
during the morning to early afternoon hours before rain activity
shifts inland along the sea breeze.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  78  95  78  96 /  10  10  10   0
Houston (IAH)  80  96  80  97 /  20  20  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  83  90  83  90 /  20  30   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wingo
AVIATION...Mejia
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion