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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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FXUS64 KHGX 220539

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1139 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
Surface analysis has moisture axis running right where a line of
showers and thunderstorms runs from KLBX to KHOU/KIAH NE towards
KLFK. Mix of IFR/MVFR ceilings will continue as winds veer near
the moisture axis. A frontal boundary was pushing through central
Texas with a weak line of showers and storms. This should push
through the area to the coast through 12Z. Overall timing in the
front from the previous TAFs has not changed much, if anything
delayed the front by an hour as it may be a touch slower. Since a
broken line of showers/storms is expected, will keep VCTS in TAFs
unless it looks like TSRA will affect terminal. Behind the front
ceilings should improve with skies clearing. Winds may be gusty at
times during the day from the NW and then decouple in the



.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 915 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018/...

.NEAR TERM [Through Monday]...
No major changes were made to the
forecast this evening. Current radar imagery shows scattered
showers splattered across much of the region tonight. The surface
low associated with the cold front is currently situated over
northeastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas. This has left the
area with the best surface convergence, along with upper level
divergence well to the north of even our northern most counties
from Burleson to Houston. AMDAR soundings still reveal a strong
cap in place between 800-700mb this evening, which has helped to
hinder thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings continue to
indicate the best moisture available through 06Z, with
precipitable water values ranging between 1.0-1.3 inches. Low-
level lapse rates and K-index values also decrease after 06Z.
Therefore, our best chance for an isolated thunderstorm would be
most likely before 06Z tonight. Short term guidance such as the
HRRR and Texas Tech WRF have begun to back off on thunderstorm
coverage as this line of precipitation slides east of I-45. The
main front will eventually overtake the dryline/Pacific front, as
it continues to push westward across east Texas this evening
between 06-09Z.

Nine o`clock observations have temperatures and dew points in the
middle to upper 60s across much of the SE TX. Onshore winds will
begin to veer overnight and eventually turn out of the northwest
by sunrise increasing to between 10 to 15 MPH. Clear skies are in
store behind the front with Monday morning temperatures beginning
in the upper 40s to upper 50s. As drier air filters into the
region, high temperatures will reach into the upper 60s to lower
70s late Monday afternoon.


Periods of fog (some dense) will continue across the bays and
nearshore waters until the front pushes off the coast early Monday
morning. Moderate onshore flow ahead of this front is also
producing 15 to 20 knot winds and 6 foot seas in the offshore
waters, and caution flags are currently in effect. Expect some
shower development out ahead of the front this evening and
tonight, with the front itself dragging a thin line of showers and
thunderstorms through the waters Monday morning. This will be
accompanied by a gradual wind shift to the northwest. Caution
flags will likely be required Monday into Monday night.

Winds gradually become NE to E by midweek before returning to SE
by the weekend. Sea fog could become an issue again by the end of
the week as deeper moisture moves back over the waters. Another
much stronger front should push off the coast next weekend. 11

A cold front will pass through the region overnight tonight,
bringing drier and breezy conditions in its wake. RHs on Monday
afternoon could fall into the mid to upper 20s with winds near 15
mph. This will create elevated fire conditions across the area for
Monday. Tuesday will be just as dry but with much lighter winds.
Moisture will begin filtering back over the area Wednesday. 11



College Station (CLL)  75  48  68  37  67 /   0   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)          76  57  70  41  67 /   0   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)        70  58  70  47  64 /  10   0   0   0  10



GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
     Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.




NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion