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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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459
FXUS64 KHGX 131224
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
724 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat advisory for most of the area again today. Peak heat
  indicies of 106-109F expected.

- Temperatures should remain 4-7 degrees above seasonable norms
  most of the week.

- Chances of isolated to scattered storms will remain in the forecast,
  though locations closer to the coast will generally see higher
  chances than those in the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Weather pattern isn`t all that much different than yesterday except
we should see some higher PW`s (2.0-2.2") push inland to, or
slightly north, of the I-10 corridor which should lead to some
widely scattered to scattered precip as the day progresses. Taking a
look at yesterday`s peak heat index readings, a good portion of the
region saw values between 107-110F. Current dewpoints between 76-80F
will be slow to mix out, so suspect we might see similar values
again today. Went ahead and issued another Heat Advisory from 11am-
6pm taking this into account. Southern parts of the area might not
see indexes that high should precip develop earlier than fcst,
however.

Otherwise, mid-upper ridging generally centered across the Red River
will track eastward into the Tennessee Valley and strengthen heading
into midweek. Portions of a trof moving off the northeastern US
coast will cutoff then sag south, then west, toward Florida
essentially nudging the weakening ridge back toward Texas later in
the week. What does all this mean...not too much actually - other
than the wx will remain pretty much status quo. Continued warm/hot
with highs in the 90s, lows in the 70s, and daily chances of
showers/storms across southern parts of the CWA. Overall
coverage/chances will be dependent on fluctuations of moisture/PW`s.
At this time, it looks like we`ll see a surge in PW`s heading toward
the western Gulf Coast Wednesday night and Thursday...but there is a
chance this mostly bypasses most of the region to the south.

Looking ahead, there have been some indications (maybe sometime
between Sept 20-22) that we *might* be able to get a weak front
slide into the area...possibly bringing temps back closer to
seasonal norms. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 716 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

CXO at IFR due to VSBYs. GLS at MVFR due to CIGs. All other sites
at VFR this morning. Radar shows showers and storms moving in from
the Gulf this morning, making it to the barrier islands before
fizzling out. Winds will be generally southerly through the day.
Expect isolated to scattered activity to continue through the day
with highest probabilities for TSRA/SHRA along and south of I-10.
Activity will taper off this evening with light and variable winds
overnight.

Bailey

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Light to moderate onshore winds and 2-4 foot seas will prevail for
the next several days. Look for some late night through early
afternoon widely scattered showers and thunderstorms on a daily
basis. Heading into late Wednesday and Thursday, we should see a 3
to 5 foot easterly swell arrive along the upper Texas coast.
Higher wind speeds are anticipated in the far offshore waters during
this time period as well. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  99  76  97  76 /  20  20  20  20
Houston (IAH)  95  78  94  78 /  30  10  30  20
Galveston (GLS)  92  83  91  83 /  30   0  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-235>237-335.

GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion