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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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220
FXUS64 KHGX 280340
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1040 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect Tuesday afternoon for all of
  Southeast Texas. Advisories will likely be needed daily
  throughout the work week as dangerous heat persists with high
  temperatures in the upper 90s/100s and heat indices in the
  106-112F range.

- Patchy fog possible during the early to mid-morning hours for at
  least the next few days.

- Notable rain chances look to return over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Oh I see you`re back for another installment of us telling y`all
that it`s hot! Whelp, pull up a chair, fill up your water bottle,
and turn down the A/C, I`ve got a good one in store for y`all! I`m
gonna keep it 100 with y`all...is what Mother Nature told me is
ahead for tomorrow...and the next day...and the next day...and the
next day...and the next day. After that things become a little bit
uncertain because we have a return of notable rain chances over the
weekend! Before that though, we gotta get through the heat
discussion. I know some will say well it`s always hot in the
summertime, but let`s talk about why this is a little more notable
than our "typical" summer heat.

The 596-598 dam mid-level high (the heatdome) has nudged its way
into northern TX where it`ll remain through at least Thursday. 850mb
temperatures will gradually increase each day above the 90th
percentile and near 99th percentile at times. The upper level high
pushing this anomalously warmer air aloft down to the surface forces
it to compress and warm even further, which is how we`ll get to
these above normal temperatures for most of the work week. College
Station, The City of Houston, and Houston/Hobby have only seen 100+
degree temperatures once this year...there is decent potential that
we`ll be tacking on a couple more occurrences to that stat. So, high
temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s through the work
week...and we haven`t even talked about the humidity yet.

Winds at the surface will vary between southwesterly and southerly,
which will help keep dew points elevated (low to mid 70s) closer to
the coast. Further inland, we should see dew points mixing out into
at least the upper 60s to low 70s in the afternoons through the work
week. The air temperatures will be high enough though that heat
indices will peak near or above the Heat Advisory threshold (greater
than 108 degrees) daily beginning Tuesday. As a result, a Heat
Advisory will go into effect Tuesday afternoon from 12pm-7pm for all
of Southeast Texas (except the barrier islands). This will likely be
extended through the end of the work week as we continue on a streak
of dangerous heat. To give you an idea of how this week will play
out...the Heat Advisory starts on Tuesday, and that`s not even the
hottest day of the week. Thursday through Saturday looks to be the
peak of the heat. There won`t be much relief overnight with low
temperatures mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s. The atrocious
humidity overnight will result in occasional rounds of patchy fog in
the early to mid morning hours for at least the next few days.

Let`s end this discussion on a more hopeful note. In the first
paragraph we discussed that there`s some potential for rain over the
weekend. Rain chances will be slim to none for most of the work week
with PW values hovering between the 10th (~1.36") and 25th
percentiles (~1.60"). Towards the end of the work week, the heatdome
begins to retreat westward, which opens the door for our an upper
level trough pushing through the eastern CONUS over the weekend.
We`ve been keeping tabs on ensemble guidance over the past few days
for surface low pressure development in association with this
trough. There is fairly decent agreement on surface low pressure
developing somewhere around the Mississippi River Valley Friday into
Saturday. The exact placement is still uncertain and that matters
because there will be an associated frontal boundary. Will this
front be progressive? Well it`s the summertime, so probably not.
Will the front push through our area? Same answer. Where will the
front stall? Who knows! However, it is something worth monitoring
since convergence along the front does increase moisture in our
area...thus the rain chances returning! Until then though, we`ll
have to make it through the triple digit heat.

With heat indices expected to at or above Heat Advisory criteria
over the next several days, please keep heat safety at the top of
your minds for any plans that you make (especially if outdoors).
Know the signs of heat-related illnesses, stay hydrated (with
water), take frequent breaks from the heat, wear loose/light-colored
clothing and sunscreen, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS LOOK before you
LOCK your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the
ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for
their paws.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

VFR and south flow should prevail through the evening. We`re
expecting a smattering of reduced visibility and low ceilings
across the region late tonight/early tomorrow morning. Visibility
restrictions should be slightly less expansive than earlier this
morning due to slightly stronger winds within the top of the
cloud-bearing layer, but there is still a 30-40% chance of
localized high-end MVFR visibility restrictions across the
"central portions" of our forecast area (impacting the UTS, CXO,
and LBX TAF sites).

Low ceilings/stratus should be thin and ragged instead of a dense
blanket and generally build from SW to NE across Southeast Texas
from about 8-16Z tomorrow morning. Most TAFs carry an additional
line for a FEW-SCT block of lower clouds, with only CLL, UTS, and
CXO carrying a ceiling in the current TAFs. However, there is a
20-40% of at least short-lived MVFR ceilings at all TAF terminals.

All stratus should lift and scatter into a VFR Cu field in the mid
to late morning, with south-southwest flow around 10 kts prevailing
at all terminals in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

A period of benign marine conditions continues with light to
occasionally moderate southerly/southwesterly winds and 2-4 ft seas
prevailing through the week. Increasing southwesterly winds over the
weekend may prompt the issuance of caution flags.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  75  97  76  97 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  78  99  79 100 /   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  83  91  83  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ163-164-
     176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338.

GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Bonnette
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion