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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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500
FXUS64 KHGX 122347
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
647 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated risk of rip currents remains through at least midweek.

- Gradual warming trend for most of the work week with daily
  chances for showers/storms.

- A cold front is expected to push through towards the end of the
  work week bringing cooler, drier conditions to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Ridging overtop the region and onshore winds at the surface should
facilitate WAA/moisture advection, keeping above normal temperatures
in place throughout much of the work week. Highs will generally be
in the upper 80s/90s with lows in the 70s/lower 80s. Scatted showers
and thunderstorms will be possible daily, mainly during the
afternoon early this week. A slot of drier air is poised to push in
from the east around mid week, resulting in a downturn in rain
chances through Thursday. This drier air should also improve
overnight cooling, causing inland lows to drop into the mid/upper
60s in spots.

During the day on Thursday, a shortwave over the Central Plains will
begin to merge with a trough over Manitoba/Ontario, deepening into a
longwave trough as it dig eastward. This system is poised to send a
cold front towards southeast Texas, fairly substantial in strength,
more akin to what you would expect during the fall. Long range
ensembles have done a pretty good job capturing the broad strokes of
this FROPA so far, and timing seems to be pretty consistent across
runs. There is a strong consensus among LREF ensemble members, which
shows the front reaching College Station Friday morning (as
indicated by 10m wind direction). Some showers/storms may develop
along the cold front, through the aforementioned slot of dry air
preceding the FROPA is currently poised to inhibit development.

Windy conditions are anticipated as the cold front pushes through
the area, which could result in hazardous marine condition across
the bays and Gulf waters. These higher winds may start to develop
around Friday afternoon (contingent on FROPA timing). Guidance
suggest the strongest winds occuring overnight into Saturday
morning, with deterministic models signaling sustained winds
reaching around 25-30 knot. Amongst these models, the AiGFS, AiECMWF
and Canadian lean a tad more aggressive with winds. Ensembles
generally tell a similar story with the uppermost values approaching
Gale levels over the Gulf. There is some uncertainty with the full
strength of the FROPA. For the time being, there is high (>80%)
confidence in sustained winds exceeding at least 20 knot across the
Gulf between Friday afternoon and Saturday evening.

LREF and GFS ensemble still indicate the coldest/driest
conditions should lag behind the FROPA, Saturday afternoon & Sunday
morning, which the NBM is also picking up on now as well. As for how
cold things will get... thats still has some uncertainty. Multi-run
mean temperatures in the GFS have increased compared to days prior,
and the dominant LREF cluster has lower midlevel heights east of the
longwave trof with higher heights behind it (36% of members). Its
entirely possible that much of the colder air swings eastward
with the trough/sfc low. Highs for Saturday afternoon are
currently forecasted to top out in the 70s/lower 80s. Early
morning lows on Sunday are forecasted to reach the 50s/60s. The
exact numbers are likely to change these next few days, though
generally the spread across ensemble members has been tightening.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

HOU experiencing MVFR VSBYs with nearby SHRA. All other terminals
at VFR. MVFR CIGs expected to develop for terminals along and
north of I-10 around 04Z and continue through around 10Z. IFR CIGs
will be possible for UTS/CXO terminals. Expect improvement to VFR
around late morning. Another round of SHRA with isolated TSRA
expected again tomorrow afternoon after 18Z, particularly for
coastal terminals. Periods of MVFR/IFR VSBYs and CIGs may occur at
terminals impacted by showers and storms. Winds will be out of the
SE at 5-10 knots, though some gusts to around 15-20 knots will be
possible with any nearby showers or storms.

Bailey

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue throughout
most of the work week, prompting caution flags at times. This flow
will also result in higher seas, abnormally high water levels (to
around 3.5 ft MLLW at high tide), and an elevated risk of rip
currents for Gulf-facing beaches. Scattered/isolated showers and
storms will be possible early this week, decreasing into Wednesday
and Thursday.

A cold front is expected to push through the region on Friday,
producing higher winds and seas into the weekend. There is high
(>80%) confidence in sustained winds exceeding at least 20 knots
across the Gulf between Friday afternoon to Saturday night, thus
Small Craft Advisories are likely. Mariners should stay up to date
on the forecast as there is potential for strong winds/seas (25-30
knots) and gale conditions, which may develop Friday night/Saturday
morning.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  94  76  94 /  20  30  10  20
Houston (IAH)  78  92  77  92 /  30  60  20   0
Galveston (GLS)  81  87  81  86 /  30  30  20   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until midnight CDT tonight
     for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion