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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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532
FXUS64 KHGX 141844
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1244 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog, some locally dense are expected through early this
  morning. Drive with caution and be sure to slow down if you
  encounter fog.

- Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
  on Saturday. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are
  possible in the afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and small
  hail are the main hazards, while a brief tornado or two cannot
  be ruled out.

- After a weak cold front passes, conditions will turn drier and
  warmer Monday and continuing into the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

We continue to monitor the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms to impact the area later this afternoon into the
evening hours. Current satellite observations show cloud cover
becoming a little more broken over the last few hours (though most
locations still have overcast skies). We haven`t had a lot of
significant warming this morning; however, if the trend of
diminishing cloud cover continues over the next few hours, that
could certainly change. Dew points are not incredibly impressive at
this time, but not anything to brush off (most of the area in the
mid to upper 60s with dew points).

All that to say, the severe weather threat is certainly still there,
and the next couple of hours will be pretty telling as to how later
today may play out.

The main line of storms is anticipated to arrive to the Brazos
Valley around 3 PM (give or take an hour or two). Storms will
continue to push SE through the region, reaching the Houston Metro
around 6 PM...again, give or take a couple of hours.
Activity should be off the coast by around 10 or 11 PM. The HRRR
initialized pretty well with this morning`s activity, so have
opted to use that as a baseline for timing of storms for today.

Now, getting into the atmospheric setup for today...Mesoanalysis
still shows decent mid-level lapse rates (around 7.5 C/km) for the
area, which, coupled with decent CAPE (around 1500 J/kg) creates the
potential for damaging hail (SPC currently has the majority of SE
Texas in a 5-14% chance for hail). Downdraft CAPE approaches 1000
J/kg, giving the potential for damaging winds...and with the primary
mode of convection being in the form of a squall line, could
certainly see damaging winds along the leading edge of the line.

Additionally, SRH values are on the elevated side, with 0-1 km SRH
in excess of 150 m^2/s^2 and 0-3km in excess of 200 m^2/s^2...which
means the environment ahead of the front is a little on the spinny
side...and as mentioned in the SPS convective discussion, QLCS
tornadoes (tornadoes embedded within the squall line) cannot be
ruled out.

At this time, the primary threat appears to be the potential for
damaging winds (15-20% chance for north and east of a line from
Columbus to Freeport)...further SW that threat is lower (5-14%).
Secondary threats would be the potential for damaging hail and brief
spin ups.

Please make sure to have multiple ways to receive alerts and pay
attention to forecast updates as the afternoon progresses.

Once the front moves offshore skies will clear from west to east
overnight. Cloudy skies may return for Sunday morning with
wraparound moisture. Breezy northerly winds will follow from behind
the front, leaving a cooler and drier day for Sunday. Highs will be
in the 60s to mid 70s with dew points in the low 50s).

Ridging will build in and persist through most of the work week.
SW flow will bring warmer 850 mb temperatures, which will create
warmer than normal temperatures at the surface. Expect highs to
reach into the low to mid 80s by the end of the long term period.

While a little far into the forecast period to get too caught up in
details, there is another slight chance of rain for next weekend in
association with another shortwave trough; however, not high enough
of a probability to warrant more than a brief mention at this time.

Bailey/Kinard

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 457 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

A mixed bag of IFR, MVFR, VFR ceilings and visibilities this
morning. By the late morning hours, ceilings will be predominantly
in the MVFR range as coverage of rain showers gradually increases
from west to east. Southeasterly to southerly winds will be on the
gusty side through the afternoon with gusts up to 25-30 kt at
times. Ceilings remain either near MVFR or borderline MVFR through
the afternoon. Some isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the
afternoon, but chances for thunderstorms increases in the late
afternoon through the evening hours as a line of storms develops
along a frontal boundary. Some of these storms could become
strong to severe with the potential to bring strong wind gusts.
The timing of these storms have been captured by the TEMPO groups.

In the wake of the front, there are some hints in the model
guidance for a brief window of reduced ceilings and visibilities
late tonight into early Sunday morning. There may be a brief lift
to VFR for some locations followed by wraparound cloud cover
bringing another period of MVFR clouds for northern terminals
going into the mid-morning hours. Winds will initially be westerly
behind the front and becoming northwesterly by Sunday morning.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1234 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Winds and seas will be increasing today ahead of the next
disturbance and associated cold front. Expect increasing rain and
storm chances from early this morning, with the highest
probabilities late this afternoon and evening. Some strong to severe
storms will be possible with brief heavy rain, damaging winds as the
main threats. Small hail and waterspouts are also possible. Elevated
winds and building seas up to 7 ft are also expected.Small Craft
Advisory will likely be issued at some point this morning and will
likely continue through late Sunday. Moderate to occasional offshore
winds can be expected in the wake of the front on Sunday. Drier
conditions and light onshore winds return early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  75  55  69  48 / 100  70   0   0
Houston (IAH)  76  58  71  53 /  90  90   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  70  59  69  57 /  60  90   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ330-335-
     350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Bailey

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion