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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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063
FXUS64 KHGX 242352
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
652 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible over the area
  this afternoon and evening.

- Gradual warming trend with temperatures reaching into the upper
  80s to lower 90s by this weekend.

- Above normal temperatures continue during the early to middle
  part of next week, with at least isolated showers and
  thunderstorms possible over portions of the region each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

A warm and moist southerly surface flow pattern persists across
southeast Texas early this afternoon between ridging over the Gulf
and ahead of a cold front moving from the Red River Valley into
portions of west Texas. Surface temperatures warming into the
lower to mid 80s along with dewpoints mostly in the lower 70s will
result in moderate instability this afternoon into early this
evening with resultant surface-based CAPE values up to 2500-3500
J/KG across our region. Weak shortwave impulses embedded within
zonal flow aloft will move across portions of southeast Texas
later this afternoon into this evening, which may aid in the
development of isolated showers and thunderstorms over portions of
our region. Any storm that develops will be capable of becoming
strong to severe given the available instability and 35-40 kt of
deep layer shear. Most CAMs keep convection at a minimum over our
forecast area this afternoon and evening, though the HRRR has
recently been persistent in showing at least isolated strong to
severe convection forming after 4-5 PM this afternoon over parts
of southeast Texas. SPC has maintained a Marginal (1 of 5) severe
risk over much of our area this afternoon and evening for a low
end damaging wind and large hail potential with any isolated
severe storm(s) that manage(s) to form. Additional strong to
severe convection is expected to develop over parts of north and
northeast Texas along an outflow boundary this afternoon. These
storms mostly look to impact northeast Texas into north central
Louisiana later this afternoon and evening but has a small
potential to clip far northern portions of our area, including
around Houston and Trinity counties, where SPC has a Slight (2 of
5) risk of severe storms into this evening. We will monitor radar
trends through the afternoon/evening closely. For now, we will
keep rain/storm chances very low (10-20 percent) this afternoon
into this evening. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will otherwise
continue into tonight with potential for patchy fog development
late. Overnight lows range will continue to range in the upper 60s
to mid 70s across the region.

Weak shortwave ridging aloft develops over the area during the day
Saturday, but may be followed by another shortwave impulse in the
zonal flow aloft late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.
This feature may bring another slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms mainly to our northern zones during this time. Any
storm that manages to develop could become strong to marginally
severe. Additional weak ridging aloft looks to develop over
southeast Texas Sunday into Monday, so rain/storm chances remain
minimal both days. Still cannot rule out a very isolated storm or
two given sufficient moisture and afternoon heating but overall
POPs will remain less than 15 percent. At least isolated afternoon/
evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day
Tuesday-Thursday given occasional shortwave impulses embedded
within zonal flow aloft. Storm chances may still become favored
over northern portions of the region by the middle of next week
as a front potentially approaches the Brazos Valley and Piney
Woods.

Outside of storm chances, we still expect temperatures to warm
well above normal this weekend into next week with readings
reaching into the upper 80s to lower 90s over inland locations and
in the lower to mid 80s along the coast. Humid conditions may
result in maximum apparent temperatures (heat index) readings in
the upper 90s to around 102 degrees by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Ceilings will continue to fill in over the next few hours with
MVFR conditions with CIGs around 1500ft expected to develop along
the coast by sunset, then spread inland through midnight. Ceilings
will further lower to around 600-800ft between 6-8z for much of
the region and persist through 12-15z. Patchy fog may also develop
overnight, but dissipate after sunrise. VFR conditions return to
most of the region between 17-19z, though MVFR conditions could
linger at GLS for a few hours longer. Another night of MVFR to IFR
conditions is expected Saturday night into Sunday.

Southerly around 8-12kt will persist through sunset, then become
light overnight, then south to southeasterly winds around 8-12kt
will return as the cloud cover scatters out.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue through the
weekend. A long fetch of these southeasterly winds may bring
increased seas at times. Above normal water levels near 3.0 feet
MLLW are still expected at each high tide cycle through the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  71  89  71  90 /  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  73  90  73  90 /  10  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  74  81  74  81 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Lindsey
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Lindsey

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion