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889
FXUS64 KHGX 121055
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
455 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will push through this morning leading to drier
  weather for the remainder of the work week.

- Rain chances return late this weekend as a few upper level
  disturbances push into the region.

- Another cold front pushes through by Monday morning bringing
  another period of cooler, drier weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

The past few days have been fairly gloomy, but skies are finally
clearing up. The coastal trough has pushed offshore, leaving clear
skies in its wake, and only marine areas with partly cloudy skies
and scattered showers. Southeast TX is currently situated between
a ridge over west CONUS and a weak trough over northeast CONUS.
The trough to our northeast will strengthen and dig overnight,
pushing a cold front through southeast TX early Thursday morning.
The latest surface analysis reveals the front is currently located
over central TX, and will gradually move S/SE overnight, pushing
offshore by sunrise. Behind the front, expect drier air to filter
in and clear skies overhead. The combination of drier air, weak
winds, and clear skies may allow for some radiational cooling to
take place tonight, particularly for our more northern counties.
Expect lows in the low 50s for the Brazos Valley area. Elsewhere,
expect lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. A beautiful day is in
store for Thursday; expect breezy northerly winds, sunny skies,
and dry air. Thanks to those clear skies, Thursday`s daytime highs
will be a bit warmer, rising to the mid 70s over much of the
area.

By Friday, the ridge over west CONUS begins to slide east towards
TX, increasing subsidence over the area and tamping down any rain
chances. At the same time, a mid-level high strengthens over SE
TX, reinforcing the subsidence and keeping the stable, sinking air
locked in place. As a result, Friday`s temps will be fairly
similar to Thursday`s; highs in the mid 70s and lows in the
50s-60s. If skies remain clear, another round of radiational
cooling may even allow for lows to dip into the 40s in some spots
on Friday night!

Rain chances return on Saturday evening as a coastal trough forms
along the TX coast, and an upper-level disturbance enters from
the west. At the surface, winds return to the south, advecting
warm and moist air from the Gulf. The pressure gradient tightens
along the coast, resulting in breezy winds and occasional gusts.
Moisture wraps around the low, allowing a surge of Gulf moisture
to advect inland. Aloft, a trough axis sets up over northwest
CONUS, and vort maxes extend southeast from the axis over our
area. The upper-level disturbance, plus the help of the coastal
trough, increase rain chances starting Saturday evening. Rain
chances remain into Sunday thanks to the next upper-level
disturbance; an upper-level low makes it`s way towards the TX
panhandle on Sunday morning, with a sfc low & cold front
associated with it. Ahead of the front, moisture should be
plentiful due to that advected Gulf moisture, thus, rain chances
remain elevated all day. The front pushes south Sunday evening
into Monday morning, bringing cooler and drier air in its wake.
Ridging builds in over TX, resulting in dry, fall-like weather
through the rest of the work week.

MLG/Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 451 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

A weak cold front will continue to push southward and off the
coast over the next few hours, clearing out any lingering patchy
fog. Northerly winds and clear skies prevail through the rest of
the TAF period.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

A cold front will move across the waters this morning, with
moderate offshore winds developing in its wake. Seas will briefly
rise to 3-4 feet, possibly 5 feet over the offshore waters.
Caution Flags will be in effect through this afternoon for
Galveston Bay and the Gulf waters. Winds relax and seas subside
Thursday night into Friday.

Moderate to strong east to southeast winds are expected to develop
on Saturday and continue into Sunday as the pressure gradient
over the local area tightens and seas will build to 7-10 feet.
Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed. Chance for showers
and thunderstorms will also return as another disturbance moves
over Texas. Elevated water levels over the bays are also possible.

Rain chances remain in the forecast on Sunday ahead of a stronger
cold front, progged to move over the Gulf waters sometime late
Sunday into Monday morning. Behind the front, strong northeast
winds are expected and seas remain elevated. Thus, Small Craft
Advisories will likely remain for the bays and Gulf waters through
early next week.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  49  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  76  53  75  54 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  75  62  72  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 3 PM CST this
     afternoon for GMZ335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MLG
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion