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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 312052
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
352 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday Night]...

A weak short wave rotating around a well defined upper level low over
northern Mexico will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the
region this evening with a brief respite mid evening but more showers
and storms late tonight. PW values remain near 2.00 inches and the
proximity of the upper low allows winds aloft to split over the region.
Will maintain chance PoPs overnight as the second disturbance approaches
between 06-09z. On Monday, the upper low moves north into west central
Texas and the divergence aloft is not quite as pronounced. In addition,
500 mb heights begin to increase from the east as upper level ridging
begins to expand westward. Not sure these subtle changes will be enough
to shut the rain off completely with PW values hovering near 2.00 inches
and convective temperatures once again in the lower 80`s. There could be
a sharp gradient to rainfall on Monday with drier conditions to the east
and wetter to the west. 43


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

With upper ridging expected to persist well into the coming week,
the forecast period will continue to be characterized by hot and
humid conditions with precipitation mainly being diurnally
driven. East to southeast winds should continue as an area of
surface high pressure remains fairly stagnant over and offshore of
the southeastern CONUS. With this onshore flow pattern
persisting, global guidance continues to show PWAT values across
the CWA remaining in the 1.5 to 2.0 range through the duration of
the week and into the weekend. Expect to see those all-too-
familiar muggy dew points stay in the low to mid 70s across the
area for the duration of the forecast period. This ample low level
moisture will allow for showers and thunderstorms to form along
the advancing sea breeze boundary, and as a result have maintained
20-30% PoPs during the afternoon hours for most of the long term
period.

The slight warming trend should continue through the end of the
week, with highs breaking into the 90s by Wednesday and
potentially reaching the mid 90s by the beginning of the weekend.
Along the coast, overnight lows shouldn`t reach too far below 80,
potentially coming within a few degrees of record high minimum
values. Inland, expect low temperatures to stay in the low to mid
70s. This combination of hot daytime temperatures and elevated dew
points could cause heat indicies to approach the triple digits by
the end of the week, so those working or exercising outdoors
should be sure to practice proper heat safety.

We continue to monitor the potential development of a system in
the Bay of Campeche towards the end of next week as the remnants
of a tropical depression move across southern Mexico and into the
Gulf. A great deal of uncertainty remains regarding the potential
development and intensity of this system, however global guidance
has continued to indicate the formation of a closed low in the
central Gulf of Mexico by the end of next weekend.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Fcst soundings show convective temperatures between 82-85 degrees
today and this threshold will be met shortly so would expect an
increase in showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Some of the
rain could be briefly heavy as PW values are near 2.00 inches.
Ceilings are expected to remain VFR for the most part with a brief
dip to MVFR in heavier showers. Upper level ridging will build
into the area from the east on Monday so would expect the higher
rain chances to be over the western half of SE TX. That said,
convective temps on Monday will again be in the lower 80`s so will
keep VCSH/VCTS in area TAFs. Cigs are expected to remain VFR. 43

&&

.MARINE...

An E-NE flow will become more easterly as high pressure over the
Great lakes moves east. Winds will become SE on Tuesday as the surface
high drifts further to the east. By the end of next week, a broad area
of low pressure will try to develop over the southern Gulf of
Mexico. This feature will induce an E-SE flow and the persistent
fetch will produce slightly elevated seas toward the end of next
week and into next weekend. 43

&&

.TROPICAL...

Tomorrow, June 1st, marks the official start of the Atlantic
Hurricane Season. Now is a great time to review your hurricane
plan to prepare for the season. Be sure to stay up to date with
the latest information on the tropics from our colleagues at the
National Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  70  84  71  89  70 /  30  50  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)          72  86  72  90  73 /  40  40  10  20  10
Galveston (GLS)        77  83  77  85  78 /  40  40  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM...Cady
AVIATION...43
MARINE...43
TROPICAL...Cady

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion