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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion
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579
FXUS64 KHGX 120533
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1233 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Look for scattered to occasionally numerous showers and
thunderstorms Sunday (30-70% chance).
- Marginal risk for excessive rainfall for all of SE Texas Sunday,
and slight risk of excessive rainfall for the majority of SE
Texas on Monday.
- Better chances of widespread precipitation, some possibly heavy at
times, is anticipated Monday-Tuesday.
- A gradual drying/warming trend should take shape heading into
the second half of the work week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight. Expect
activity to be confined to the coast where a pocket of moisture
convergence and CAPE both reside.
Another round of showers and storms is anticipated for Sunday as
we continue to see PWAT values in the 2.0-2.5" range. Expect
showers and storms to increase in coverage during the afternoon
hours as daytime heating kicks in. Additionally, hi- res models
are showing a diffuse backdoor front working its way into the area
from the north.
While, initially, activity will gradually move inland from the
Gulf
--as the diffuse front moves in, expect storm motion to transition
with storms pushing slowly back towards the coast. Sounding
analysis reflects an environment suitable for efficient warm rain
processes, so could see instances of flash flooding with storms
that produce heavier rainfall rates (especially in areas that
have already received decent rainfall).
The wet pattern will continue into next week as SE texas resides
in the southern periphery of an area of high pressure that will
move into the northern CONUS and on the west side of an area of
low pressure in the SE CONUS. 500mb analysis shows a series of
vorticity maxima moving from east to west into our area. As it
interacts with deep moisture, upper-level forcing, and low shear,
expect to see showers and storms become more scattered to numerous
in coverage. This will result in multiple days of at least a
marginal excessive rainfall risk (with Monday featuring a SLIGHT
risk for most of the area). The most favorable timing for
convective development and heavier rainfall will be during the day
with peak heating and the aid of the sea breeze.
The pattern will transition and become less active by Thursday as
hot and dry conditions return to the region. Expect this hotter
and drier pattern to continue into the weekend as high pressure
builds in. While most of the area should remain rain-free,
persistent southerly flow could result in isolated, diurnally-
driven activity along the sea breeze during the afternoon hours.
Bailey
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026
Have some lingering shra activity along/south of I-10 early this
evening which should continue dissipating with the loss of
heating. A moist airmass remains parked across the region and
anticipate a mostly diurnally driven trend in terms of shra/tstm
chances (precip developing offshore late at night then
transitioning inland during the day). Most problematic aspect is
narrowing down the most favored time period(s) for any individual
TAF site. After coordination with CWSU, we`ll be highlighting the
afternoon time period for most inland sites. Mainly VFR conditions
will persist - though some brief cig & vsby reductions and gusty
winds will be possible in/near any stronger cells. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026
Light to moderate onshore winds and seas around 2 to 4 ft will
persist tonight and into the upcoming week. The main concern will be
showers and storms developing late night and into the morning hours,
before moving inland during the day. Highest chances are expected
Monday into Tuesday with scattered to numerous showers and storms.
Elevated winds and seas can be expected near/around any stronger
storms. Drier conditions along with light onshore winds resume after
midweek.
Bailey/JM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 92 76 90 / 20 30 30 70
Houston (IAH) 78 91 78 89 / 30 60 40 80
Galveston (GLS) 83 89 82 88 / 30 60 50 80
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Bailey/JM
NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion