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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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074
FXUS64 KHGX 141726
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1226 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A brief increase in Gulf moisture could boost rain chances on
  Friday.

- Dry weather pattern is expected to develop this weekend into
  next week.

- Slightly above average summertime heat (upper 90s/lower 100s)
  will persist through the next several days. Cumulative impacts
  of heat (and heat stress) will remain a significant risk factor,
  especially for heat-sensitive populations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Partly cloudy skies expected overnight along with low
temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s areawide. Winds will
continue to relax to around 5 mph or less by late tonight.

A surge of moisture from the western Gulf waters along with a few
vort maxes will make its way into Southeast Texas on Friday. PWs
are expected to rise to 1.9-2.2 starting in the morning for the
areas south of I-10 and expanding northward to the rest of the CWA
during the late morning to early afternoon hours. Although these
PWs should generally be able to bring some decent rainfall, the
broad mid-upper level high pressure over SE CONUS will remain
fairly strong with the western edge of it expanding even further
west into western TX during the day Friday. I have continued to
carry PoPs of 20-30%, in particular during the afternoon where
instability and diurnal heating is at its highest and may be
assisted by the seabreeze boundary. If any strong storms do
develop, brief periods of heavy rainfall is possible. The highs
will be a degree or two less than yesterday, but still range in
the mid to upper 90s for much of the inland areas while the coasts
remain in the lower 90s.

Dry conditions will resume this weekend and continue into the
upcoming work week. The highs will be in the upper 90s inland and
the lower to mid 90s along the coast, with some locations possibly
hitting the 100 deg F mark next week. Heat indices will peak
between 105-110 deg F for many locations. Do not underestimate the
effects of heat stress when working or spending time outdoors for
extended periods. Make sure to keep protecting yourself, your
loved ones, and pets safe from the heat :). As stated in the
previous forecast discussion, reduce or change the time spent
outdoors to cooler times of day, increase the time and access to
air-conditioned spaces, and always check the car seats before
departing your vehicle.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

As the increased moisture from the Gulf makes its way onshore a few
isol shower/storms dot the s`rn portion of the area and continue to
move northward. Gusty conditions up to 20kts will persist through
the afternoon and into the evening. Winds will begin to chill out
overnight to around 3-5kts. During this time the area west of I-45
will see the increasing chance for BR into the sunrise hours.
Tomorrow will follow the same pattern as today, only differnece is a
decrease in rain chances.

CMW

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Caution flags will remain in effect for the bays and Gulf waters
through late tonight due to moderate onshore winds and seas of up
to 5 feet. Winds will gradually decrease Friday and will continue
mostly light through the upcoming work week as high pressure
builds. Seas will decrease to 2-3 feet by early Saturday. A surge
in moisture is expected on Friday and could lead to isolated to
scattered shower and thunderstorms throughout the day. By
Saturday, we will transition to a dry weather pattern as drier air
moves in and the high pressure builds.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  99  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  80  98  77  98 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  84  90  82  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cotto
AVIATION...CMW
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion