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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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615
FXUS64 KHGX 232036
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
236 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions will persist alongside a gradual warming trend
  through the end of the work-week. Highs reaching the mid 80s by
  Thursday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

A pleasant day out there with sunny skies, light winds, low humidity
and afternoon temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. A very dry
airmass remains over southeast Texas. Surface obs show dewpoints
ranging from the mid-teens to low 20s, bringing relative humidity
down into the teens to 20 percent range. While winds are lighter
this afternoon, the dry conditions warrant caution with any fire
activity.

The upper level ridge will begin to break down tonight and into
Tuesday, causing surface winds to transition to the southeast and
south. A tight pressure gradient resulting from lee cyclogenesis
over West Texas will lead to another breezy day across the region on
Tuesday. This southerly flow will result in a warmer day with highs
mainly in the 70s.

The gradual warming trend continues throughout the week. By mid-
week, 850 mb temperatures are expected to increase into the upper
teens to low 20 degC by mid-week, suggesting surface highs mainly in
the 80s. Even warmer conditions are expected on Thursday due to
compressional heating ahead of a passing cold front, with highs
reaching the mid to upper 80s. Most of the forcing and dynamics
associated with this FROPA will remain to our north; therefore
little to no precipitation is anticipated inland, with only slight
chances for the Upper TX coast. Unfortunately, this front will not
bring significant temperature impacts. In fact, a warming trend will
continue into the weekend with highs mainly in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 526 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR/SKC throughout, with N/NE winds 5-10 knots, becoming light
and variable...but generally veering more northeasterly tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 231 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Winds and seas will continue to weaken and subside this afternoon
to around 15 to 20 knots and below 5 ft. As surface high pressure
shifts to our east, onshore flow will return across the Upper TX
coast. The main marine concerns involve breezy conditions Tuesday
into Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Moderate to
strong onshore winds and building seas can be expected after mid-
day Tuesday and Small Craft Advisories will likely be issued in
future updates. A cold front will move over the waters by
Thursday, bringing a brief window of light to occasionally
moderate offshore winds. Onshore flow resumes by Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  36  73  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  40  72  60  81 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  52  67  62  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion