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939
FXUS64 KHGX 280637
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1237 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm and muggy weather is in place for one more day. Expect
  patchy fog, particularly near the coast, in the morning and
  potentially again for a brief portion of Sunday evening.

- A strong cold front late Sunday night into Monday morning will
  bring much colder conditions early next week, followed by a slow
  warmup deeper into the week. A light freeze is very likely north
  of the Houston metro, with lower chances in the northern suburbs
  and rural areas west of the metro.

- The gale watch on coastal waters from Sunday through Monday has
  been upgraded to a gale warning. On land, a wind advisory is in
  place for late Sunday night and Monday to match. In addition to
  the strong winds and rough waters, mariners will need to
  prepare for low bay water levels and strong currents where area
  rivers and bayous enter the bays Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1237 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Another handful of records fell today from our long, holiday hot
stretch, and we will have one more day of this to go. However, the
much-anticipated cold front is on its way, and set to move through
the area Sunday night into early Monday morning, bringing a much
different set of conditions for early next week.

Starting with where we`re at now, it is still very unseasonably
warm, and the warm, muggy conditions are fueling some fog across
the area, but mostly very near the coast. Like the last couple of
nights, we are seeing less intense fog than earlier last week -
however, some patches of more dense fog are still cropping up, as
a few obs of 1/4 to 3/4 miles are still be reported at times.
While this isn`t widespread enough to require any sort of
advisories at this time, travelers on land and sea should be
prepared for abrupt, sometimes dramatic changes in visibility due
to the fog tonight through the morning. At the coast, there will
be one last window for fog Sunday evening before the front
arrives.

Between the two fog windows, we`ll also get one last shot at some
daily records, at least for afternoon record highs. The morning
low temps may manage to be eclipsed at midnight as the first bits
of cold air come in behind the front. It could go either way,
we`ll probably be watching things right up to midnight. Going back
to the afternoon highs, the deterministic NBM went a bit cooler
than today for highs. This is not unreasonable, given we may have
enough cloud cover to hold things in check. But with the front
trending a little bit faster, we may find ourselves in a spot with
it close enough to boost temps slightly through compressional
heating. I`m buying into this, so I swapped the NBM for the median
of the NBM distribution. It`s a subtle change, but is roughly
persistence or slightly warmer instead of slightly cooler. We will
find out if I`m right on this shortly!

This front will be accompanied be showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm or two on Sunday night. Confidence in scattered to
numerous showers really is quite high, and the only thing keeping
PoPs from being extremely high is that more scattered character
rather than a widespread rain shield. It turns out that for all
the hyping up of this front we`re doing, the upper support is not
nearly as supportive of convection as one might expect - a
consequence of the upper trough only being able to dig into the
Central Plains against this strong ridge. This will also disrupt
the efficiency of any rains, keeping QPF pretty low. This is a
situation where confidence is very high in both that there will be
rain, and also that any rain there is will be light.

Once the front moves through - entering the area a little after
sunset (roughly 7 pm) and pushing off the coast around midnight -
the first thing we`re going to see is for strong north winds to
crank up for the late night hours through Monday. A wind advisory
is slated to take effect from north to south shortly after the
frontal passage, eventually covering most of our area for Monday.
In the advisory area, chances are high (70-100 percent) that
sustained winds will reach to around/above 25 mph, with similar
confidence in wind gusts around and above 35 mph. If you`ve got
some light and/or unsecured Christmas decorations still up, Sunday
is going to be a very, very good day to bring them down, even if
it is hot out there.

There is a portion of the area, from inland Harris County and
Liberty County northward to the Piney Woods, where we don`t
currently have a wind advisory issued. This is not because it
won`t be windy there - indeed, winds will likely be near the
advisory threshold. However, the confidence that we`ll actually
manage to see sustained winds or frequent gusts above 25 mph is
noticeably lower. Except on the waters of Lake Livingston, NBM
probabilities of sustained winds over 25 mph outside of the
advisory area are functionally nil. We are likely to see higher
gusts and even a medium chance (40-70 percent) of getting a gust
to 35 mph, but the signal for consistent advisory-level winds just
isn`t there like it is elsewhere in the area. That said, if the
winds end up overperforming and we begin to see persistent high
gusts, that could require a quick addition of this last chunk to
the advisory area.

The next impact after the winds will be a surge of much colder,
drier air into Southeast Texas. High temperatures across the area
for Monday will almost certainly be "whatever the temperature is
at midnight". In the afternoon, while we should get a bit of
warming from the morning lows thanks to a bit of sun breaking
through the clouds, but cold advection will work hard to keep that
rise in temps as close to zero as possible. So yes, Monday
afternoon looks to be mired around 50 degrees, give or take a few,
and a solid thirty degrees lower than is being forecast for Sunday
afternoon!

That cold advection won`t have had enough time to do its work
right after the front, so morning lows Monday morning won`t be
terribly low, mainly in the 40s. It`s more Monday and Tuesday
night that we`ll be looking for the coldest nights. Monday night
should get the full benefit of 24 hours of cold advection, and
chances of a light freeze around the Piney Woods and Lake
Livingston are high - above 50 percent. Elsewhere...not so much,
but are still 15-25 percent west of the metro from B/CS down to
I-10. Not a strong chance, but it exists for sure.

Tuesday night looks like the chilliest night of this stretch. By
then, high pressure should be settling in, giving us a clearer
nighttime sky, light winds, and short of a fresh snowpack, about
as ideal of a radiational cooling setup as we could ask for. Like
past nights, I keep freezing temps mostly hemmed up north of the
Houston metro, beginning to edge into the northern suburbs. West
of the metro, and even in the rural areas southwest of the metro
and southward as far as inland Matagorda and Brazoria counties, I
bring temps very close to freezing, but not explicitly below them.

But while that implies my lean to not getting freezing temps that
far south, it`s very close for a reason, and it would not be a big
surprise to get a freeze, especially in localized cold spots. If
you are in a river valley, particularly the Brazos, a brief dip to
freezing may be more likely than not, as NBM probabilities there
get as high as 75 percent. In general, this area west of the metro
and north of I-10 have medium chances of hitting the freezing
mark, 40-60 percent. South of I-10, it`s not quite as high, but it
still wouldn`t be a huge surprise. In Jackson, Wharton, inland
Matagorda, and the rural western parts of Fort Bend and inland
Brazoria counties, those NBM freezing probs are in the 25-45
percent range - nearly a coin flip! Some spots close to the coast
do get as high as 60-65 percent, but I think this is somewhat
spurious, as you can see a weird, high bullseye there on Monday
night, when chances are even lower. Potentially a bias correction
artifact. I`d be much more inclined to sticking with that 25-45
percent range across this area.

For Wednesday and beyond, the story remains very close to the
same. With zonal flow or even some weak ridging aloft setting up,
we should mostly be looking for fair weather and a slow, gradual
warmup for the second half of the week. While models are still
pretty unanimous on a shortwave trough making its way through the
upper pattern in this latter part of the week, they have unhappily
gotten less in agreement on the timing. Not a surprise given the
relative subtlety of these features, but still a bummer for the
forecast. As a result, the rain chances I had at the very end of
the forecast period have largely disappeared. Should we get the
shortwave rolling through more in the mid-week when we`re still
dry, rain chances will be slim to none. If it`s later in the week
and especially if it matches up with a weak Pacific front, we`d
have a better potential for rain...but without the confidence of
it happening that late, I can`t really justify having mentionable
PoPs anymore. Once things start to firm up on how this plays out,
we`ll be able to speak with more confidence on it.



&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 540 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

VFR conditions are expected through around 06Z Sunday. Low clouds
will form starting 06-09Z for Houston area terminals northward
with low MVFR/IFR conditions expected. Surface winds are expected
to be stronger tonight which should result in less fog development
for the inland terminals than what was seen last night. Still
expect periods of visibilities of 3-6SM mainly 10-15Z Sunday.
Patchy sea fog will develop over Galveston Bay and will impact
KGLS terminal. Ceilings will improve for inland terminals between
15-20Z Sunday. Expect southerly wind gusts of 15-20 knots in the
afternoon. Strong cold front will cross the terminals Sunday night
with timing 01-03Z KCLL, 03-06Z Houston terminals, and 06-08Z
KGLS. Scattered -SHRA will form along/behind front with brief
period of reduced visibilities in rain possible right at FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1237 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Patchy dense fog is possible tonight into Sunday morning embedded
within broader areas of less dense fog. This will be possible
again Sunday evening ahead of an approaching cold front. The
front will bring a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms as
it pushes offshore Sunday night into Monday morning. Very strong
north winds, hazardous seas, and low water levels are expected in
the front`s wake. Gale conditions are likely, and a gale warning
has been issued. Currents may become strong near the interface of
the rivers and the bays during times of low water. Winds and seas
slowly improve late Monday into Tuesday, though low water will
likely persist through at least Tuesday`s low tide cycle. Indeed,
negative tides may be more apparent for Tuesday`s low tide than
for Monday`s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  67  83  41  50 /   0   0  20  10
Houston (IAH)  66  83  46  52 /   0   0  30  10
Galveston (GLS)  66  74  49  52 /   0   0  60  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 9 PM Sunday to 6 PM CST Monday for TXZ176-
     195>198-210>212.

     Wind Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 6 PM CST Monday for
     TXZ214-226-227-235>238-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...Gale Warning from midnight Sunday night to noon CST Monday for
     GMZ330-335.

     Gale Warning from midnight Sunday night to 6 PM CST Monday for
     GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...35
MARINE...Luchs

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion