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907
FXUS64 KHGX 191122
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
522 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazardous winds and seas are developing across the coastal
  waters tonight, and are expected to carry into early tomorrow
  morning before diminishing.

- Seasonably cool conditions are expected Friday. Humidity will
  also be low for the day.

- Beyond Friday, expect a long stretch of warmer than normal
  conditions through the weekend and deep into next week. Through
  this period, we will find temperatures closer to record values
  than to normals.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1201 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

All area observations are showing increasing north winds late this
evening, and satellite confirms that the day`s cold front has now
pushed well out over the open Gulf, and is no longer any of our
concern. Tonight looks to be fairly gusty, particularly over the
low friction surface of the Gulf (more on that in the marine
section below). This will usher in a much cooler and drier airmass
that will bring us all the way down to... *checks notes* ...right
around seasonal averages for Friday. Ultimately, the upper trough
supporting the front was enough to push a fairly vigorous front
through our area, but hasn`t really dug deep enough to push an
arctic cold pool into the Southern Plains, so we`ll be noticeably
cooler, but not egregiously cold.

Another consequence of this is that this bit of colder, drier
conditions will be quite short-lived. Winter and cold lovers,
savor what you can tomorrow, because that`s probably about all
you`re going to get. Winds Friday are expected to wind down pretty
quickly through the morning, begin to veer, and by evening we
should have light onshore flow in place. This will start to push
out whatever amount of cooler airmass did manage to get in on
Friday, and set us up for a return to warmer, more humid
conditions into the weekend.

This will be bolstered by ridging aloft building in pretty
strongly. If you squint a little and don`t pay too much attention
to the values of the geopotential heights at various pressure
levels, it isn`t that different from a summery look to the upper
air pattern. Fortunately, those geopotential heights do matter.
While definitely a pattern that supports above-average warmth,
we`re only going to get so hot, especially with the lowest solar
angles of the year near the winter solstice. One thing of note is
that with a strong surface high shoving into the eastern US, we
might see a bit of a weak backdoor cold front try to wiggle in
from the east. Will it be particularly effective? No, not
really...but it might tamp down the heat a scoch east of the
Houston metro, and I do even have some slight chance PoPs in place
given the increasing humidity on Sunday and early Monday.

Through this warmer stretch, confidence is quite high for above
average warmth, given the setup. 10th percentile NBM highs don`t
get any lower than the upper 60s and 70s anywhere in SE Texas,
which is already 10ish degrees above average. Both the
deterministic and median NBM highs are in the upper half of the
70s to around 80 degrees. At this peak of the NBM`s probabilistic
distribution, records are probably still safe, but we`re getting
uncomfortably close. But there would be more of a threat if we end
up in the upper half of the distribution, particularly towards the
90th and 95th percentile. This is more of a hottest case scenario,
so not as likely...but still plausible.

Finally, with the more humid conditions, we will find ourselves
back considering the potential for the overnight/early morning
development of fog this weekend into early next week. For those
who still have a morning commute next week (it`s me - I`ll have a
morning commute next week), it`ll be worth that extra check of the
weather before you head out the door. If you`re on a holiday
break, then take it easy and sleep in!

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 517 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

VFR today. Winds will be light and VRB this morning, becoming
S-SE at 5-10kts this afternoon. Similar conditions expected Fri
night into early Sat morning, although some locations may see
some sct MVFR cigs around sunrise timeframe.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1201 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

A cold front has crossed the coastal waters, with north to
northeast winds building in its wake. At 11pm, winds were
generally in the range for small craft to exercise caution, but
winds above the Small Craft Advisory threshold are beginning to
emerge on Gulf waters. Although Galveston Bay is not included in
the Small Craft Advisory, it is worth mentioning that areas around
the bay entrance are likely to briefly reach the advisory
threshold tonight.

Conditions should improve fairly rapidly through Friday morning,
with winds diminishing after sunrise and through the rest of the
day. Those winds will also be veering back to being onshore by
evening. Because of this, the potential for overnight and morning
fog will need to be monitored for this weekend and early next
week. This is not a slam dunk sea fog setup, fortunately, but
the warm, humid conditions and persistent onshore flow will at
least make for some chance most every night. There is some hope
that it will be somewhat self-limiting. With several days of above
average temperatures, the shallow waters of the bays and nearshore
waters should warm, and if they do so effectively, will eventually
become warm enough to put a gradual, uneven end to sea fog
potential. At least until the next strong cold front chills those
waters down again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  67  46  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  65  48  78  65 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  61  56  71  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-350-
     355-370-375.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 8 AM CST this morning
     for GMZ335.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...Luchs

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion