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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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891
FXUS64 KHGX 101114
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
614 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect increasingly warm and humid conditions as the week
  progresses.

- Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms persist into next week.

- Strong rip currents expected along Gulf-facing beaches through
  the end of the week.

- Monitoring the potential for strong to severe storms early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is in store for Friday as
an embedded shortwave trough moves through southern Texas. HREF
shows scattered to numerous showers and storms developing mid-late
morning through the afternoon hours. With PWAT values remaining in
the 75th to 90th percentile, the latest run of the HREF seems pretty
reasonable. The uncertainty lies with which locations will receive
rainfall and which locations will remain dry (thinking the setup
will be pretty spotted across southeast Texas). This is due in part
to a building ridge in the 500 mb layer that will create pockets of
subsidence and inhibit rain for some locations across the area.

The ridge will slide east during the day Saturday, resulting in
higher rain chances for western counties where moisture remains
elevated. As the ridge moves off to the east, an upper level low
will approach from the Pacific NW. For Sunday, expect rain showers
and thunderstorms to continue, with the highest chances over the
Brazos Valley and Piney Woods areas. This is can be attributed to an
LLJ and an overhead jet streak. PW values are expected to remain
fairly high (1.8") across those regions, which may result in some
heavy downpours. As a result, WPC has placed those areas in a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Sunday.

Speaking more on the aforementioned upper-level low, expecting it to
move into the Central Plains sometime Tuesday into Wednesday. A few
things to note as this system moves in...a dry line is anticipated
to develop towards west Texas, as that occurs, a surface low will
develop on the lee side of the Rockies later in the day Monday. This
will position Southeast Texas in the warm sector of the system. In
addition to this setup, still looking like we will have plenty of
moisture and instability to work with along with the potential for a
strong jet to develop nearby. All that to say, we are still
monitoring the potential for severe weather near the middle of next
week. SPC has placed portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney
woods in a 15% chance for severe weather on Wednesday. At this time
it appears that the more favorable dynamics lie to our northwest,
however, given that it is late in the forecast, I imagine that may
evolve in the coming days. Continue to stay up to date with the
latest forecasts as we approach the next week.

Lastly, as far as temperatures are concerned, highs should remain in
the upper 70s to low 80s through the weekend. Early next week we
will see highs in the mid to upper 80s. Going into the weekend, lows
will remain in the low 70s for much of the area.

Bailey

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 527 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Another morning of predominantly MVFR CIGs/Cloud decks across the
area, though some pockets of IFR/LIFR CIGs/VIS could develop
briefly as daybreak approaches. MVFR FLs are likely to hang around
a tad longer than yesterday, though VFR conditions should return
during the afternoon for most spots. Scattered showers are
anticipated across the region during the daytime with some
thunderstorms possible during the afternoon. Rain chances taper
off in the evening. MVFR CIGs develop again overnight with IFR
CIGs possible early Saturday morning.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

As winds and seas remain elevated, small craft should continue to
exercise caution through at least Friday morning. Caution flags
may need to be extended further into Friday if wave heights are
slower to decrease. A high risk for rip currents will continue
through the end of the week for gulf-facing beaches as increased
onshore flow continues. An extended fetch of easterly to east-
southeasterly winds in the eastern Gulf will bring elevated seas
through the weekend. Expect seas to build to 5-7 feet. Winds may
continue to increase through the weekend, which may result in the
issuance of a Small Craft Advisory. Daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms continue through next week, with the highest chances
on Friday as an upper level disturbance moves overhead. Winds
could be stronger and more erratic in and around thunderstorms.

Bailey

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  80  66  82  68 /  60  20  40  10
Houston (IAH)  80  68  82  71 /  70  10  40   0
Galveston (GLS)  76  71  77  72 /  70  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT this morning
     for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Bailey

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion