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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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784
FXUS64 KHGX 191832
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
132 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat will continue through the weekend, with a Heat
  Advisory in effect through Saturday evening. Limited cooling
  overnight will exacerbate the heat.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through
  Saturday, with the potential for locally heavy rainfall. There
  is a level 2 out of 4 risk for excessive rainfall today and
  Friday night. A few strong storms with gusty wind cannot be
  ruled out.

- A high risk of strong rip currents is expected through the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

A weak surface boundary, stalled along the I-20 corridor sparked
ongoing convection across north Texas and the ArkLaTex. This
activity has been aided by a weak upper trough, allowing enough
forcing for pockets moderate to heavy rainfall to our north.
Latest trends suggest that the boundary will continue to sag
southward before it becomes diffuse and dissipates altogether
late this evening. Until then, outflow boundaries from the
convection will trigger secondary convective initiation through
the afternoon, leaving the potential for showers and thunderstorms
through the afternoon and into this evening. Given the moisture in
place, some storms may produce locally heavy rainfall and any
storms that train over the same areas could cause isolated flash
flooding. This trend will diminish somewhat this evening, as we
lose daytime heating; however, another round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop early Saturday morning and may impact
the area. Confidence on this is very low; as it all depends on
lingering mesoscale boundaries that guidance is not picking up too
well.

The other forecast concerns is the heat across the area. Clouds
and outflows have cooled some of our northern areas, but where
plenty of sunshine has occurred, heat indices have climbed into
the triple digits. Not everywhere will see heat indicies above 107
(heat advisory criteria) but given hot conditions and little
relief overnight, we will continue the Heat Advisory through at
least Saturday. By Sunday, dewpoints and RH decrease somewhat,
with heat indices below 107. Based on the lower confidence on
heat, will hold off from extending the Heat Advisory through
Sunday.

Otherwise, high pressure and ridging will build across the region
at the beginning of the new work week. Heat may become a concern
once again next week as highs climb into the lower to mid 90s.
Fortunately, our overnight lows will decrease a bit, so at least
some relief will be felt overnight.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Predominantly MVFR conditions early today driven by CIGs (though
some fog/haze) with isolated pockets of IFR FLs. FLs should
improve to VFR with daytime heating, though slightly slower in
spots compared to yesterday. A MCS/complex of thunderstorms has
developed over the DFW/San Angelo Area early this morning.
Forecast models project this convection to track southeasterly
throughout the day, though are split on timing and intensity by
the time it reaches SE Texas. Upgraded to TEMPO groups for TSMS
for the northern tier of TAF sites and maintained PROB30s to the
south. Should see a lull in convection during the evening hours
with CIGs/fog starting to fill in. Another potential round of
showers/storms could occur early Saturday morning with a passing
disturbance aloft, though forecast uncertainty is high by this
point.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible tonight into Saturday. Otherwise,
light to moderate onshore flow will persist through this weekend
into early next week with seas between 3 to 6ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  93  77  90  77 /  50  30  40  10
Houston (IAH)  93  80  92  79 /  30  40  30  20
Galveston (GLS)  90  83  89  83 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

     High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 PM CDT this
     afternoon for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...03
MARINE...JTC

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion