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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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692
FXUS64 KHGX 182322
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
622 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot weather is on tap this weekend and next week.

- Highs in the mid 90s this weekend, and mid and upper 90s for some
  parts of the region next week. Heat index values in the triple
  digits.

- Sparse rain chances with most areas staying dry into early next
  week. Could see higher rain chances around mid next week with a
  passing disturbance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Warm weather continues today with ridging in place directly overtop
the area, sandwiched between two lows/troughs, one over West TX/New
Mexico, and the other a weak upper level low over the NE Gulf.
The broader wx pattern hasn`t changed drastically, with the ridge
overhead expected to move northwesterly towards the TX/OK
Panhandle these next several days. Midlevel heights will vary from
around 592-596 dam throughout this period, with PWs from anywhere
around 1-2 inches. 850mb temps are still forecasted to increase
these next few days (reaching 19-23C next week), thus we should
see hotter wx arrive as well.

Rain chances are generally on the low end throughout this period,
only 20% at most during the daytime hours (mostly afternoon and
evening). We could see a jump in pops around Tue/Wed/Thurs next
week, as the aforementioned upper level low, now Invest 91L over
the NE Gulf, moves westward. Amplified ridging is likely to
minimize impacts to SE Texas, though we`ll continue to keep a
close eye on it (and we`d advise others to do the same as well).

In summary, hot weather and increasing temperatures are expected
into next week. Highs will be in the upper 80s/mid 90s this
afternoon, climbing to the upper 90s next week. Heat indices will be
in the triple digits daily. Rain chances will be low, but still
within the realm of possibility. In the absence of rainfall, heat
stress is anticipated to be High to Extreme from Tuesday-Thursday
with heat index values of 103-109. Regardless, it would be wise
to be mindful of the heat. Make sure to wear light, loose fitting
cloths and drink plenty of water. Limit time outdoors during the
hottest parts of the day.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail mostly through the TAF period. TS has
not developed this afternoon, and chances are decreasing with the
loss of daytime heating. Some MVFR cigs may develop overnight
thanks to low-level moisture being trapped under the subsidence
inversion. This may also lead to some fog with MVFR vsbys, but
confidence is too low to include explicit mention at this time.
After sunrise, any MVFR cigs should mix out to VFR by the
afternoon. Winds will stay light out of the S/SE tonight around 5
kt, then S/SW Sunday around 5-10 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Favorable marine conditions are anticipated into midweek. Southerly
winds 10 to 15 knots and 2-3 foot seas will prevail today. As
surface high pressure moves into the northwest Gulf Sunday and early
next week we should see slightly lighter south-southwest winds and
seas further subsiding.

47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  93  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  76  96  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  82  91  80  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion