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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

948
FXUS64 KHGX 121953
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
253 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing heat risk with "feels-like" temperatures around
  97-107 degrees (36-42 Celsius) through at least this weekend.

- Rip Current Statement in effect through Friday morning for Gulf-
  facing beaches. Rip Risk is likely to continue into next week.

- Increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding starting
  Sunday night and lasting through at least Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

The shower activity late this morning and into the afternoon hours
has been a bit more robust than the last couple of days, but any
area that receives rainfall will be mostly in quick bursts upwards
of 0.25-0.75" through the rest of the afternoon. A few rumbles of
thunder are again possible as well.

While onshore southeasterly flow remains, afternoon highs in the
upper 80s to mid-90s (31-36 Celsius) combined with dew points in
the 70s (20-26 Celsius) are resulting in heat indicies generally
in the 100-107 degree range (38-42 Celsius) this afternoon. Based
on the current forecast, today may be the hottest "feels- like"
temperatures as the weather pattern trends wetter by the end of
this weekend and into early next week. However, hot and humid
conditions will continue to persist, so sensitive groups or those
not acclimated to the summer weather of Houston will be especially
at risk of experiencing heat illness given these conditions. If
you plan to spend time outdoors, make sure to drink plenty of
water to stay hydrated and take breaks from direct sunlight when
possible.

Persistent southeasterly flow will continue pose a risk for rip
currents for the foreseeable future. Therefore, if you have any
beach plans, make sure to watch out for rip currents. Swim near a
lifeguard, if possible, and be sure to avoid swimming near any
rocks, jetties, and piers where rip currents frequently occur.

Subtropical ridging remains overhead and will continue to do so
into the weekend. However, an influx of moisture from the tropical
disturbance forming in the Bay of Campeche tracking northward
through the weekend should provide better shower/storm
chances/coverage going through the weekend. The subtropical
ridging will gradually weaken going into early next week, as a
mid-level trough deepens across the Plains. Timing of a frontal
passage with this trough has come into much better agreement
amongst ensemble guidance, thus the bulk of widespread rainfall
looks to be more in the Monday to Tuesday timeframe. More
uncertainty exists with how quickly the front either clears or
stalls over the region, so that will be worth monitoring in the
coming few forecast iterations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Terminals will have a mixture of VFR to MVFR primarily for
ceilings. It`ll generally improve during the day before starting
to lower again tonight. Chances of showers/storms are fairly
isolated so left out PROB30 mentions. Winds will be southeasterly
with winds at around 10 knots with a few gusts up to 15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds are expected into the
weekend with seas of 2 to 5 feet. Caution flags may be warranted
at times over the next few days, especially this weekend as seas
near 6 to 7 feet offshore. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will
be possible each day with rain chances rising over the weekend
into early next week. A high risk of rip currents is anticipated
almost daily for the foreseeable future.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  92  77  92 /  10  10  10  70
Houston (IAH)  77  92  78  91 /   0  20  10  70
Galveston (GLS)  82  89  83  88 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Young
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...Young/03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion