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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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FXUS64 KHGX 271120
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected today with the
  best chances in the afternoon and early evening. While the
  severe weather risk is low, a few strong storms could
  potentially produce gusty winds and localized minor flooding.

- Continued hot and humid conditions are expected today, but
  increased cloud cover and rain chances has lowered the chance
  for Heat Advisory conditions. Regardless, continue to use heat
  safety practices.

- Isolated showers and storms possible through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Relief from recent hot and dry conditions i son the way for most of
the region today and heading into the weekend as the upper lvl ridge
slides slightly westward into the Southern Rockies. This pattern
shift brings a northerly flow aloft to the area, opening the path
for a series of shortwave disturbances to move across the region.
At the surface, we`re monitoring a weak frontal boundary extending
across the Middle/Lower MS Valley. This boundary is currently
supporting an MCS, which will gradually weaken as it moves south
toward the LA coast. Hi-Res/CAMs models show activity igniting
across the region overnight (2am - 5am) as the frontal boundary
associated with the MCS pushes southward. While the bulk of the
dynamics and instability will remain to the east, a few overnight
and early morning showers and storms could still produce gusty winds
around 20 to 30 mph). A lull in precipitation can be expected later
this morning, but the boundary is expected to meander near the
region, pulling Gulf moisture inland and serving as the focal point
for scattered convection later this afternoon.

After morning showers/storms, concentrated primarily north of I-10,
additional storm development is expected this afternoon. This
coincides with peak daytime heating, the arrival of passing
shortwaves aloft, and decent frontogenesis in the 850-700 hPa layer.
While the severe weather risk remains low, strong storms capable of
producing localized gusty winds cannot be ruled out. Additionally,
with PWAT values in the 2.0 to 2.3 inch range, heavy downpours could
potentially produce localized minor flooding.

Additional rounds of showers and storms are possible on Friday, with
the best chances south of I-10 and over the coastal waters. Ridge
aloft expands eastward this weekend into early next week, bringing a
more northeasterly flow aloft across the region. At the surface,
weak easterly waves/troughs will keep daily rain/storm chances.

In terms of temperatures, some locations west of I-45 could still
reach near 100F today. However, increased cloud cover and
precipitation chances should keep most other areas in the mid to
upper 90s. Beyond Friday, high temperatures will generally remain in
the mid 90s.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Widely scattered shra/tsra is expected to diminish this morning.
However, we suspect another round of scattered shra/tsra to
develop later this afteroon into the evening hours. Though there
is an areawide risk of tsra, we think the best chance will be from
IAH down to the coast. The wind forecast is more uncertain than
usual due to a plethora of outflow boundaries and a weak frontal
boundary approaching from the north. Mostly VFR is expected. But
IFR-MVFR conditions will be easily accomplished in any tsra. Also
could not rule out locally strong tsra wind gusts over 35 knots.
For now, the highest gusts we have in our tsra tempo groups in
the TAFs are 25 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Light to moderate onshore winds, generally around 10 to 15 knots are
expected tonight and Thursday, though a brief wind shift to the
west/north is possible after sunrise. Scattered showers and storms
are expected today with the best chances by late afternoon
through the evening hours. Rain and storm chances will continue
overnight and Friday. Strong winds and building seas will be
possible near any storms. A daily risk of showers and storms will
be possible through the upcoming week. Overall, outside any
storms, light to moderate onshore winds and low seas are expected
this weekend and into midweek.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 100  76  97  75 /  40  30  10   0
Houston (IAH)  99  79  95  78 /  50  50  30  10
Galveston (GLS)  92  82  90  82 /  20  40  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion