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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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757
FXUS64 KHGX 091049
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
549 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Stalled front near the coast lifts back north overnight. Look
  for patchy to areas of fog developing both inland and offshore.

- Mostly cloudy, warm and muggy conditions through Tuesday.

- Next weather system and associated storms push through late
  Tuesday night into Wednesday followed by cooler, breezy, and
  seasonal conditions to end the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

As of ~12AM (very early Monday morning), a quasi-stationary frontal
boundary remains near the coast but is ever so gradually drifting
northward. PW values remain above the 90th percentile (~1.40"), so
some embedded shortwaves and favorable positioning of the upper
level jet will allow for scattered showers to continue into early
Monday morning. This moisture sticks around into Monday afternoon
and another passing shortwave leads to more spotty showers. Before
we get to that though, we`ll have to deal with some fog overnight
into Monday morning. That`s a consequence of the wet grounds from
this weekend`s rainfall and the light winds from the frontal
boundary being nearby. An LLJ will be strengthening overhead
overnight reaching 25-30 kt by 12Z, so we`ll see if that generates
enough mixing to limit the extent of the fog. Either way, some of
you will see fog overnight into Monday morning and it may be dense
at times. In fact, it`s already becoming dense in portions of the
Brazos Valley.

As previously mentioned, some spotty showers are expected on Monday.
There is a low-end chance for an isolated storm or two given the
elevated instability that`ll be in place. Convection would have to
overcome a capping inversion around 800-750mb in order to tap into
that, and there`s not really any sufficient forcing mechanisms that
would help it do so. Not impossible, but improbable. High
temperatures will remain in the 80s through midweek with low
temperatures in the 60s/70s.

If you`ve been keeping up with the forecast, then you`ll remember
that we have an upper level cutoff low currently sitting near the
Baja Peninsula. If you haven`t been keeping up with the forecast
(that`ll cost Gryffindor 10 points), this cutoff low split off from
an upper level trough earlier in the weekend. This upper level low
will track eastward and make its way into west TX by Tuesday
evening. Surface low pressure develops in response and drifts
eastward through the state. The associated LLJ strengthens Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night as the low drifts eastward with mid-
level winds peaking in the 40-50 kt range on Tuesday evening
(strongest winds over the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods). We`ll have to
monitor for storms developing in association with this LLJ and
increasing PVA Tuesday afternoon and evening in the Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods.

Model consensus points toward a line of showers/storms pushing
through Southeast TX early Wednesday morning and into the afternoon.
This will be along an initial frontal boundary moving from west to
east, and there is some potential for a few storms to become strong
to severe (especially up north). PW values will be well above the
90th percentile in the 1.6-1.8" range, so locally heavy rainfall is
also on the table. These storms will be fairly progressive though,
so we are not expecting any areas seeing an extended period of heavy
rainfall. We know that Spring Break is this week for a lot of you,
so be sure to keep an eye on the forecast as we head into the middle
of the week for the next round of showers/storms.

Another cold front pushes in from the north on Wednesday night
bringing in a brief period of seasonal temperatures alongside gusty
northerly winds and drier air. Thursday will be the best day to be
outdoors for Spring Break (you heard it here first) with a northerly
breeze, high temperatures in the 60s/70s, and low temperatures in
the 40s/50s. We`ll be back in the 80s for highs and 60s for lows
again by the weekend, so enjoy the seasonal temperatures while we
have em! It`s too early to lock this in, but we`re monitoring the
potential for another cold front going into early next week.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 536 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Widespread MVFR conditions (CIGs around 1500-2000) are being seen
across the area this morning with areas of IFR conditions south of
SGR (CIGs around 600-800ft). There may be a brief window of CIGs
around 700ft for the rest of the region through around 14z, but
MVFR conditions are expected to largely prevail. CIGs lift through
the late morning with VFR conditions prevailing this afternoon
into this evening. A return to MVFR conditions is expected between
4-6z tonight, with again potential for IFR CIGs late tonight into
early Tuesday morning.

Southerly winds around 7-12kt will develop later this morning and
continue through the day. Winds decrease to around 5-8kt
overnight, but remain southerly.

Isolated showers are possible this afternoon between 19-23z, but
coverage will be so limited that it could not be included in the
TAFs.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

A frontal boundary currently over the coastal tier of counties
will gradually drift northward overnight. With light winds and
gradually increasing low level moisture overnight, expecting fog
to develop thru Monday morning. Dense fog will be possible in the
central to southern parts of the bays and extending into the
coastal Gulf waters. Visibilities will improve late Monday
morning, but periods of sea fog will be an intermittent issue
through Tuesday.

As the next weather system approaches from the west, southeasterly
winds and seas will increase late Tuesday likely prompting the
issuance of caution flags or a Small Craft Advisory. A band of
showers and thunderstorms will push through on Wednesday ahead of a
cold front and may produce locally higher wind gusts/waves. A cold
front then pushes offshore Wednesday night with a period of strong
northerly winds (sustained 25-30kt with gusts up to gale possible)
and elevated seas (7-10 ft) lasting through Thursday. Onshore flow
returns Thursday night. Those heading to the beaches or out on the
waters for Spring Break should be advised of this period of
hazardous marine conditions around midweek...stay tuned to the
forecast for updates.

Batiste

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Majority of Southeast TX received rain over the weekend, but it
certainly was a tale of the haves and the have nots in terms of
rainfall amounts. Areas along and east of I-45 (especially in
Harris, Liberty, and Chambers Counties) were the big winners with
rainfall amounts in the 4-6" range. Periods of heavy rainfall led to
a few urban and small stream flood advisories Saturday night into
Sunday morning. The bayous faired well throughout this event with
only a few gauges along Greens and Halls Bayous around the Aldine
area cresting into action stage.

We`ll see how this weekend`s rainfall impacts the ongoing drought
situation (~90% of the region was in a severe to extreme drought
ahead of this event). The next round of showers/storms is expected
Tuesday night into Wednesday along a frontal boundary. PW values
will be well above the 90th percentile (~1.40"), so locally heavy
rainfall will be possible in any of the stronger storms. Thankfully,
these storms are expected to be fairly progressive, so we`re not
anticipating extended periods of heavy rainfall this time around.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  83  69  83  66 /  10   0  20  60
Houston (IAH)  83  72  84  70 /  20   0   0  20
Galveston (GLS)  76  70  76  69 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion