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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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274
FXUS64 KHGX 011751
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1151 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog will remain a possibility nightly through the weekend,
  especially in the coastal areas.

- Unseasonably warm weather will continue through the start of
  next week.

- Few cold fronts will try but are unlikely to reach SE Texas
  during the work week. May see one reach our area during the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1117 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Warm weather continues today with afternoon highs set to reach the
70s/mid 80s with lows in the 50s/lower 60s. Sea fog cleared out very
quickly today and conditions on the whole should become less
favorable for sea fog overnight into Monday as wind speeds
increase and water temperatures warm. This is reflected in the
SREF and HREF/Cams too where coverage is overall more limited,
more confined to our coastal & eastern counties. Anticipate patchy
fog with at least some isolated pockets of dense fog, especially
after midnight.

A few shortwaves & disturbances pass north of our area throughout
next week. First of these occurs on Monday, where a cold front
attempts to scoot its way towards SE Texas, but stalls near north-
central Texas. The next front should be approaching SE Texas around
mid week on Wednesday, but it too is anticipated to stall out near
the Red River Valley. Even if that doesn`t reach us, we`ll still see
some deeper moisture (1.3-1.6" PWs) and shortwave energy overhead,
resulting in some showers and thunderstorms around mid week. May
see a brief lull in PoPs on Thursday as the aforementioned front
lifts north. Otherwise, warm weather will prevail through the
work week with highs in the 70s/mid 80s with lows in the 60s.

One more front should push towards SE Texas on Saturday, however
this time, it seems as though the front may actually reach out area.
The LREF Ensemble has a large amount of members showing a northerly
wind direction by Saturday evening. While LREF wind direction
histograms are still multi modal with peaks at northerly and
southerly orientations, confidence in the front reaching SE Texas is
much greater than the latter two fronts. This especially since it`s
not just one suite of members showing this northerly wind shift, as
ENS, GEFS and GEPS all contain a decent number of members showing
this possible outcome. While the details of this front may change
over the next few days, current guidance suggests better rain
chances and overall cooler temperatures heading into the next
weekend.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 449 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

IFR-MVFR ceilings will continue across SE TX sites through around
14-15Z. Reduced visibilities due to areas of patchy fog will also
continue through around 15Z. Quickly after, clouds will lift and
scatter out and fog will burn off. The pressure gradient will
tighten today and a 25-30 KT llvl jet will develop, leading to
stronger winds. Expect SE winds to increase to 10-15 KTS with
gusts of 18-23 KTS this afternoon. Winds will relax to around 10
KTS in the evening and to around 5 KTS late tonight into early
Mon morning. IFR ceilings will once again be possible starting
late Sun night and with the lighter winds, there is a chance for
areas of fog to develop early Mon morning.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1117 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Patchy sea fog could return to the coastal waters and bays tonight.
Conditions are generally becoming less favorable due warming water
temperatures and increasing wind speeds, so sea fog is likely to be
more patchy in nature with only a few dense pockets. Model guidance
suggests that the worst visibility will potentially set in after
midnight during the early morning hours of Monday. Afterwards, fog
should clear with chances continuing to lower through next week.
Light to moderate winds and low seas will continue through the
upcoming work week.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  83  58  81  62 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  81  61  81  65 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  73  63  74  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion