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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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167
FXUS64 KHGX 241719
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1219 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly cooler with mostly cloudy skies on Sunday with highs in
  the low 80s.

- Surface trough and increasing Gulf moisture will bring low-end
  chances for showers/storms starting Monday through the week.

- Moderate onshore winds and building seas early in the week,
  likely triggering Caution or Advisory conditions for mariners
  through at least Tuesday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Another cool and tranquil night is on tap across the region, with
overnight lows dipping into the 50s inland and remaining in the
upper 60s for the coastal counties and immediate coast. Light and
variable winds, paired with a slight uptick in low-level moisture,
will set the stage for patchy, low-lying fog toward sunrise.

Heading into Sunday, a plume of high-lvl cirrus clouds associated
with upper-lvl troughing to our west will continue to spread
eastward across our area. The resulting mostly cloudy skies should
cap temperatures a few degrees cooler than today, keeping highs
generally in the low to mid 80s. Despite the cloud cover, dry
conditions will persist with low humidity, making for a comfortable
(or pleasant) finish to the weekend.

Changes begin early next week as the mid-level ridge that has
dominated our weather weakens or shifts eastward by Monday in
response to multiple shortwaves embedded in the flow aloft. Forecast
soundings depict a gradual moisture return with PWATs increasing to
the 1.1 to 1.5 inch range Monday into Wednesday as a sfc trough
develops along the middle and lower TX coast. While widespread rain
is not anticipated, this increase in moisture could trigger isolated
to scattered showers or storms during the Monday-Tue time frame,
mainly across our southwestern counties and adjacent Gulf waters...
with coverage increasing further inland by mid-week.

By midweek and through the rest of the week, the pattern aloft
transitions to a more zonal to southwesterly flow with the upper
ridge anchored to our south and east. At the sfc, persistent east to
southeasterly flow will maintain a steady transport of Gulf air into
the region. Driven by this continuous moisture return (increasing
PWs) and subtle weak impulses passing overhead, low-end chances for
rain and storms will be possible through the end of the week.

Seasonal temperatures will remain to close out October, with daytime
highs in the low 80s and overnight lows in the 50s and 60s.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

VFR conditions persist through this TAF cycle. With an increasing
pressure gradient over our region, expect elevated SE winds this
afternoon of 10-15 kts, especially for TAF sites along and south of
I-10. More coastal TAF sites may see gusts beyond 15 kts during this
period. Deeper into the evening and overnight hours, winds over
inland TAF sites will become calm and VRB. There is a potential for
early morning MVFR vis for our TAF sites outside of the Houston
metro, but model confidence is not high enough to include them in
the TAFs currently. By mid-morning tomorrow, winds increase out
of the E/ESE, with locations along and south of I-10 seeing
sustained winds of 10-15 kts once again.

JMG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Light to moderate onshore winds (10 to 15+ kts), and seas around 2
to 4 ft will persist this afternoon and tonight. Persistent
easterly to southeasterly flow will keep winds moderate to
elevated at times, and seas around 5 to 7 ft through at at least
Tuesday. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions can be
expected at times, with conditions reaching Advisory levels
possible on Monday. Overall, expect moderate onshore winds and
seas around 4 to 6 ft through the week along with a daily chance
of showers/storms mainly offshore, and near the Matagorda Bay
area.

Beach conditions: Will continue to monitor water levels as P-ETSS
guidance suggests levels between 3.0 to 3.5 ft MLLW, particularly
during times of high tide Sunday, and persisting through at least
late Tuesday. Forecast shows values near 3.5 ft MLLW by Monday night
and Tuesday night.

JM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  86  59  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  85  62  82  60 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  82  70  76  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion