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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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363
FXUS64 KHGX 081720
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1220 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing heat risk is forecast as the week progresses.

- High risk of rip currents will persist through tonight, with
  risk levels fluctuating between moderate and high through the
  week.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storm chances, mostly during
  the afternoon hours, will continue this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

A subtropical jet streak and associated enhanced mid/upper-level
moisture remains over the area but will continue to weaken/push
eastward as subtropical ridging builds westward from the Gulf.
Earlier light rain with this feature has dissipated, though some
patches of light rain/sprinkles may still occur along the coast
this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, isolated to widely
scattered showers and storms will continue to develop over inland
areas, with the relatively highest chances in the Brazos Valley.
Activity will diminish this evening. Subtropical ridging will be
centered over Southeast Texas through the week. This will prevent
widespread convection, but still expect isolated to scattered
showers and storms to develop each afternoon with daytime heating,
onshore flow, and the sea breeze. Highs will mainly be in the
lower 90s. Taking into account the typical high bias of NBM dew
points, there will only be a low chance of heat indices reaching
heat advisory criteria. But heat will certainly still be a concern
for those not acclimated to it. Towards the end of the period,
the ridge may start to weaken as troughing amplifies over portions
of the central and eastern CONUS. This may result in an increase
in convective coverage starting around Sunday with some frontal
boundaries stalling north of our area, but details remain
uncertain at this time.

JDavis

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Prevailing MVFR ceilings at most terminals this morning with
isolated pockets of IFR ceilings. Expect ceilings to improve to
VFR by the late morning hours. A band of lingering light rain
along and south of the I-10 corridor is anticipated to persist
through most of the morning hours before gradually dissipating. In
the early afternoon, there is potential for isolated thunderstorms
to develop mainly north of I-10. Confidence is not high enough to
include any thunder in this set of TAFs, but did include some
PROB30`s for SHRA as greatest confidence on afternoon activity is
CXO and northward. Winds will be southeasterly around 10-15 kt
with gusts up to 18-23 kt at times through the afternoon. Any
lingering rain will dissipate around 00Z with MVFR to IFR ceilings
filtering in again overnight into Tuesday morning.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Southerly to southeasterly winds will persist for the week, with
winds dipping in and out of small craft exercise caution
criteria. Winds this afternoon and tonight will be right around
14-15 kts, but will not include caution flags at this time.
Caution flags may be needed towards the middle of the week. Isolated
showers and storms are still possible but chances will decrease
slightly as the week goes on.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  91  75  91 /   0  10   0  20
Houston (IAH)  76  91  77  91 /  10  20  10  30
Galveston (GLS)  82  88  82  88 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDavis
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...JDavis

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion