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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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768
FXUS64 KHGX 220948
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
448 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions expected through early next week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible during the second
  half of the week.

- Potential change to a wetter pattern by the end of the month.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

The tranquil weather pattern over the area continues as a ridge
axis situated over the High Plains remains firmly planted in
place. The "name of the game" tomorrow remains persistence as
temperatures reach in the low-mid 80`s for highs and back down
into the high 50`s to low 60`s for overnight lows tomorrow. The
outside feel is anticipated to become less "sticky" as surface
moisture decreases a little more and dewpoints dip into the 50`s.
Situation awareness should continue on Thursday and Friday for an
increased fire risk due to the decreasing RH values to around
25-30%. The winds remaining continually light can keep us out of
Red Flag territory.

As we end the work week and move into the upcoming weekend, the
combination of the dry air and continual ridging will result in
little to no rain chances. Daytime highs will also remain in the
low to mid 80`s inland and the upper 70s to low 80s along the
coasts. Overnight lows remain seasonal, between the mid 50`s and
low 60`s inland while slightly warmer along the coast tipping into
the upper 80s to low 70`s. In addition, a weak upper-level jet
max entering the region from the Rio Grande Valley will slightly
increase surface winds on Saturday and Sunday. Even with the
increasing upper-level dynamics, the minimal PWAT values keep
chances of precip low.

The good news is that we might start seeing increasing PWATs by
early next week. This is the start of showing early signals of a
potential pattern change, which may bring rain chances into the
area.

CMW/Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 448 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period. The lone
exception to that has been LBX earlier this morning where patchy
fog led to a couple of brief drops in visibility...this potential
will continue for the next few hours. Light and variable winds
early this morning will become light and east-northeasterly later
this morning generally between 5-10kt. Winds will be come light
and variable once again after sunset.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Light to occasionally moderate easterly winds and seas of 2 to 3
feet will persist through Friday. Winds will strengthen to 15-20
knots during the weekend and seas will build to 3 to 5 feet,
possibly up to 6 feet at times over the offshore waters. Caution
Flags or Small Craft Advisories may be needed Saturday into
Monday. The moderate easterly flow will continue for much of the
upcoming week, additional Caution Flags may be needed at times.

Mostly dry weather conditions are expected through the weekend.
The return of showers and thunderstorms may occur early next week
as moisture from the Gulf returns to the local area.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  85  54  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  85  58  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  77  65  78  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CMW
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion