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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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885
FXUS64 KHGX 111115
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
615 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Look for scattered to occasionally numerous showers and
  thunderstorms this weekend (30-70% chance).

- Better chances of widespread precipitation, some possibly heavy at
  times, is anticipated Monday-Tuesday.

- A gradual drying/warming trend should take shape heading into
  the second half of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

No substantial changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Elevated
moisture levels will lead to diurnally driven shower/storm
development this weekend. Best chances, and overall coverage, should
generally be situated south of a Livingston-Columbus line. Some weak
northward moving vorticity may enhance overall coverage/intensity
today for locations south of I-10 and out near Matagorda Bay where
some hires guidance suggest some pockets of 1-3" amounts can`t be
ruled out.

Monday and Tuesday, we`ll see the trof currently seen on water
vapor imagery across the Midwest/OH Valley sink southward then
westward along the southern periphery of the expansive ridging
moving into the nctl US. This trof/weakness and associated
disturbances should provide more favorable conditions & lift for
more widespread precipitation across most of the region. Still
keeping an eye on some weak upper diffluence and potential slower
steering flow that could provide pockets of locally heavy rain
during this time period.

During the second half of next week, we should see a transition to
some drier and warmer conditions as the mid level trof moves further
west and mid level ridging begins moving in. Southerly low level
flow could still bring some isolated diurnally-driven seabreeze
activity in the afternoons. With fewer clouds, temperatures should
trend back up into the mid 90s.

LDavis/47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Early morning streamer showers and storms are seen along the coast.
These storms are mainly impacting site KGLS, but could impact sites
KLBX and KSGR over the next couple of hours. Some uncertainty
remains in how far north showers and storms will get in the early
morning, so went with VCSH for sites KIAH and KHOU. Otherwise,
scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected this
afternoon, especially for sites KIAH and KDWH and points southward.
Shower and storm coverage is expected to dissipate this evening.
Tonight we should see quiet conditions with light southerly winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Light to moderate onshore flow continues into next week. Seas will
remain between 2-4ft throughout this period. Scattered shower and
thunderstorm development is expected offshore late at night into
the early afternoon hours...then mostly push inland. More
widespread rain chances are expected Monday and Tuesday. Severe
weather is not anticipated; however, through Tuesday, localized
heavy downpours, gusty winds(~30kts), and higher seas are possible
in/near stronger cells.

LDavis/47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  93  77  93  76 /  40  10  40  40
Houston (IAH)  92  79  93  77 /  70  40  60  30
Galveston (GLS)  90  83  91  81 /  50  30  60  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LDavis
AVIATION...Williams
MARINE...LDavis

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion