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881
FXUS64 KHGX 071139
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
639 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- With more sun, temperatures will run above seasonal averages,
  though humidity will be somewhat lower.

- Can`t completely rule out a brief shower or two on Wednesday,
  but the best rain chances remain offshore.

- Hazardous marine conditions (winds/seas) are expected at times,
  more so toward the end of the work week from a nearby tropical
  system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

If you went outside today (Tuesday), you may have noticed
something was missing...other than the blanket of clouds that
we`ve had the past few days. Humidity took a back seat as much
drier air filtered in leading to RH values earlier this afternoon
as low as 25-45% across the area. High temperatures still managed
to peak in the low 90s though, but hey...it`s a dry heat! A
similar-ish forecast is on tap for Wednesday with the stationary
frontal boundary remaining offshore and a trough axis remaining
overhead along with surface high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic
states. There is one difference to note though!

On Wednesday afternoon, an embedded shortwave trough will push
through the area and will be paired with speed divergence aloft (air
moving out of the region faster than it`s entering). This will at
the very least provide enough lift for low to mid-level clouds to
develop. There may be just enough moisture along the coast though
(PW values near the 75th percentile: ~1.63") for a few showers or
storms to develop near and/or off the coast. A capping inversion
around 800-750mb will limit coverage from becoming widespread (and
keep storm development relegated to the Gulf waters), but a few of
you may see some rain drops in the southern tier of counties.

In terms of temperatures over the next few days, expect them to top
out mostly in the low 90s. Overnight temperatures will mostly range
from the mid 60s to the low 70s with some fluctuations (plus or minus
a few degrees). A pocket of drier air moves in from the east late
Thursday into Friday and brings PW values closer to the 25th
percentile (~0.94"). As you can imagine that puts a squash to our
already slim rain chances on Thursday, but may return along the
coast on Friday. Late in the work week and going into the weekend,
most of the attention will be on what is expected to be Hurricane
Isaias as it approaches the northern Gulf coast and remains well
east of Southeast Texas. While we won`t see any direct impacts from
this system, there are expected to be a few indirect impacts with
most of them being marine related. These include: hazardous seas in
the Gulf waters, increased risk of rip currents, and potential for
minor coastal flooding along Gulf-facing beaches.

One of the other indirect impacts we`ll see is drier air being
pulled in with northerly flow on the western side of the system.
Part of this does include cooler 850mb temperatures, so it wouldn`t
surprise me to see a downward trend in the high temperature forecast
for Saturday...but we`ll see! Ridging aloft builds in late in the
weekend going into early next week leading to a slight uptick in
temperatures and potentially increasing rain chances depending on
how quickly moisture builds back in. I should probably mention here
that low temperatures over the weekend look to be mostly in the 60s,
but will be on the rise going into early next week. I could end the
discussion there, but I`m gonna do the classic infomercial and hit
y`all with a "BUT WAIT THERE`S MORE!"

Bonus Section: Hunting for a REAL Cold Front//
----------------------------------------------

Technically, this isn`t part of the official forecast at all, but
it`s October and I`m sure we all have the same question on our
minds...when is the first REAL cold front going to get here?! This
past one was okay and all, but we didn`t need to pull out our
jackets for it so for all intensive purposes it didn`t count. So,
join me in my delusions and wish-casting (I pressed send on this
AFD at 11:11pm for a reason) as we look into fantasy land (beyond
the forecast period) to see if there`s any hint of a cold front on
the horizon. Oh...wait...I actually see something!

Looking at the 12Z GEFS and Euro ensembles, there`s actually a
fairly decent signal for a cold front towards the middle of the
month. More than half of the Euro ensemble members (out of 50) and
just over half of the GEFS members (out of 30) reflect low
temperatures below 60 degrees for the City of Houston at some point
in mid-October. I can`t get any more specific on timing at this
point, but keep in mind that we`re in fantasy land. For all we know,
by tomorrow these odds can flip completely to zero...and I`m not
just saying that to prevent a jinx (maybe). Anyway, the chances
aren`t zero as of right now and I really wish that I could attach an
image to this AFD so y`all can see what I`m talking about. Luckily
for y`all (or unluckily if you like shorter AFD`s), I`ll be on the
forecast desk through Sunday night and we`ll be keeping an eye on
the ensemble trends to see if this is something that could come
to fruition.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF periods. Light winds
this morning should pick up somewhat from the northeast this
afternoon, before becoming light and variable this evening and
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Moderate northeasterly winds have led to the issuance of caution
flags for the Gulf waters through early Thursday morning. Winds
will continue to strengthen going into the end of the week leading
to Small Craft Advisories that will be in effect Thursday morning
likely through early Saturday morning. Seas increase in response
with peaks in the 7-9 ft range late in the work week in the
offshore Gulf waters. This is due to a tightening pressure
gradient from a developing tropical system that is expected to
remain well east of Southeast Texas and make landfall along the
north central Gulf coast later this week. Elevated water levels
during times of high tide (peaking above 3.5 ft MLLW) and
increased risk of rip currents are also anticipated due to this
tropical system. Winds and seas gradually subside over the
weekend.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  91  67  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  92  73  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  87  79  88  78 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Thursday morning for
     GMZ350-355.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM CDT Friday for
     GMZ350-355-370-375.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Thursday morning for
     GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion