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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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437
FXUS64 KHGX 140431
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1131 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warm conditions will persist with highs in the upper 80s
  to low 90s into the weekend. Today is expected to be the
  hottest day of the week.

- Patchy fog late tonight through early Thursday morning.

- Persistent southeasterly flow will lead to a steady climb in
  humidity. Best rain and storm chances arrive early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Forecast hasn`t changed much between model runes. Morning lows for
today should be warmer, only falling into the 60s/lower 70s due to
steady onshore flow. Patchy fog will still be possible during the
early morning hours, especially in areas south of I-10 & west of I-
45. The mid/upper level ridge axis should slide over SE Texas today.
High temperatures this afternoon should still be in the 80s with
isolated lower 90s. This is currently anticipated to be the warmest
period of the forecast, as the ridge aloft is expected to weaken
from several disturbances pushing in from the west.

By Friday the upper level ridge will have pushed off to the east
with midlevel heights falling over SE Texas. As heights decrease, so
will subsidence. Temperatures are expected to be in the 80s, but
should drop 4-6 degrees by Saturday. Meanwhile, onshore flow will
remain uninterrupted, thus moisture will continue to increase. This
should result in low temperatures climbing into the 70s area-wide
during the weekend. Vorticity impulses are anticipated to push over
the region throughout this time frame, though the environment
remains slightly capped, thus PoPs remain low.

On Monday, a mid/upper level trough will push into the Great Basin
with a shortwave trough over Baja California. These features are
progged to send ample shortwave energy to SE Texas, providing plenty
of lift in addition to strengthening onshore flow. PWs could climb
to around 1.6-2.0" early next week. This pattern looks particularly
favorable for rainfall, so we should see a fair amount of
showers/thunderstorms early in the week. The aforementioned upper
level trough is anticipated to fill northeast into Tuesday, with
it`s associated cold front likely stalling out before reaching SE
Texas. Scattered showers and storms will remain a daily possibility
through mid week.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 553 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Look for some late night and early morning fog development, moreso
south of I-10 and also CXO. Last night vsbys briefly fell to
around 1 mile at some spots and don`t see any reason to expect
anything different tonight. Any fog will quickly burn off after
sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Expect some land breeze driven winds early today, shifting onshore
this afternoon, then increasing tonight through Friday. Moderate
onshore winds of 15-20 knots with seas of 3-6 feet are anticipated
throughout the weekend, likely prompting caution flags at least.
Water levels may rise above 3.0ft MLLW with high tide on Saturday,
then 3.5 ft MLLW at high tide on Sunday. This will also prompt a
higher risk of rip currents across Gulf facing beaches. Scattered
showers and storms return to the forecast on Monday of next week.
Persistent southeasterly fetch may bring higher seas to 7 ft as
well, which could prompt periods of small craft advisories.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  90  66  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  90  70  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  88  73  84  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...47
MARINE...03

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion