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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

777
FXUS64 KHGX 031040
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
440 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front, and thin band of showers and storms, passes across
  the region today.

- Drier and seasonable weather tonight into Thursday.

- Warm front briefly and associated scattered showers moves back
  inland Thursday, but another cold frontal passage is forecast
  Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Cold frontal boundary and associated thin band of showers and
thunderstorms is currently tracking across northern and western
Tx. This front and precipitation should be making its way into
the Brazos Valley 5-7am, the US59/I69 corridor 1-4pm, and off the
coast just before sunset. Instability-wise, things aren`t overly
impressive for a widespread severe wx threat. That said, we`ll be
keeping an eye out for an isolated strong to severe storm or two.
Best upper diffluence should be situated across northern zones
this morning and also east of the I-45 corridor into mid-late
afternoon. We`ll also monitor for any weak seabreeze/baybreeze
that might try to develop prior to the fronts arrival that could
briefly enhance some llvl convergence near the coast late in the
day. Primary threat of any isolated strong cells would be 25-45mph
wind gusts.

Otherwise, look for decreasing cloudiness and a return to
seasonable conditions tonight and Wednesday. The front will
return north as a warm front late Wednesday night & Thursday
bringing increasing cloudiness and possibly some scattered
showers back into parts of the area as the day progresses. By
Thursday evening, chances further increase (moreso I-10 southward)
as moisture availability becomes better and we see another cold
front move across the region during the overnight hours.

Models aren`t exactly on the same page in terms of the mid level
pattern heading into the weekend. GFS indicates a quasi-zonal flow
before ridging builds overhead. ECMWF/UKMET/ICON show we might see
either a cutoff low and/or deepening trof across Mexico and
southern Texas. Either way, seasonable wx probably won`t be all
that much different inland with temps close to normal and rain
chances fairly low. Exception might be near the coast and in the
Gulf water where POPs will be higher along with breezier
winds/elevated seas. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 440 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A broken line of showers/storms are on approach to the region in
association with a cold front that will push through the area
today. Out ahead of the front, there is a mixture of IFR/MVFR/VFR
ceilings with the lowest values being along the coast and nearby
the front. Patchy fog and reduced ceilings remain possible over
the next few hours closer to the coast. Also can expect
reductions in ceilings and visibilities in and around any
showers/storms. The line of showers and storms will begin to push
into CLL over the next hour or two. Elsewhere, expecting SH/TS
timing of ~16-20Z for the Houston metro terminals, and between
18-22Z for the coastal terminals.

Southerly winds this morning become northwesterly
behind the front but stay near or below 10 kt for the most
part...except along the coast where winds may peak near 15 kt
going into the evening. Drier air filtering in behind the front
will lead to VFR conditions prevailing this evening into Wednesday
as skies gradually clear.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1247 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Light to occasionally moderate south winds are expected into
the afternoon. A cold front, and associated thin broken band of
showers and thunderstorms, will push off the coast in the late
afternoon and early evening hours. Northwest to north winds will
increase behind the front, and a Small Craft Advisory may be
required for a short time period tonight in the Gulf waters until
speeds diminish Wednesday morning. Onshore flow will resume
Wednesday night as the boundary moves back north as a warm front.
Another cold front is forecast Thursday night. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  75  53  74  54 /  90   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  84  58  77  58 /  80  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  81  65  75  68 /  60  50   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion