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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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803
FXUS64 KHGX 090529
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably hot conditions will continue today as daytime highs
  will be in the mid 90s with heat indices reaching the triple
  digits.

- Lower chances of rain today. Isolated to scattered seabreeze
  showers and thunderstorms are possible closer to the coast.

- Deep Gulf moisture will arrive Friday morning causing rain
  chances to increase Friday and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

This morning, a mid level trough lingers over the southeast part
of Texas. This trough will continue to interact with the routine
summertime sea breeze. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
possible; however, there will likely be lower overall coverage
than we saw on Wednesday due to a decrease in moisture with drier
air situated behind the trough axis. Daytime highs will be in the
mid 90s with 20-30% chance of rain along and south of I-10...lower
further inland.

Tonight, remnant showers and storms will begin to die off as the
area begins to cool. Overnight temperatures will be in the upper
70s with S/SE winds.

Friday and into the weekend, an inverted trough will track
westward and inland across Mexico and the Southern Texas coast.
South to southeasterly flow will continue and deeper moisture
will return. This surge of higher moisture will likely allow for
scattered coastal showers/storms in the mornings, transitioning inland
during the day. With PW`s in the 2.1-2.4" range throughout the
weekend into early next week, rain chances increase to 30-70%.
There`s no significant focusing mechanisms in terms of a widespread
flooding potential, but cannot rule out some localized heavy
downpours from time-to-time considering the tropical airmass.

Heading into the early and middle parts of next week, an expansive
mid level ridge will take shape across the cntl US. We`ll be on its
southern periphery and subject to a parade of westward moving
disturbances tracking westward underneath it...with continued
daily chances of rainfall.

Seasonal summer heat continues as maximum temperatures will be in
the mid to upper 90s today and heat index values ranging from
100-106F over the weekend. Vulnerable populations should take
proper safety precautions by wearing light weight clothing,
drinking plenty of water, and taking frequent breaks. With the
increase in clouds and periodic rainfall, readings will likely
taper down closer to near normal this weekend and next week, or
even slightly below normal on the higher coverage rain days.

LDavis/47

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Latest radar and satellite imagery show mainly quiet weather
around the forecast area, with VFR prevailing at all TAF sites.
Will need to monitor for further thunderstorm development over the
next couple of hours, but overall dry weather is anticipated
through the remainder of the night. Overnight tonight, patchy
fog/stratus clouds are expected to develop again in a few spots.
Added TEMPO groups for brief MVFR ceilings around sunrise at
locations that have seen ceilings over the past few mornings. Any
ceilings that do develop should lift and dissipate by mid/late
morning. The SAL will make its return tomorrow and should help
mitigate or suppress widespread seabreeze thunderstorm activity.
However, a few spotty showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out with the seabreeze through the afternoon. At this time,
coverage and probabilities are too low (below 30%) to mention any
chance of precipitation in the TAFs through tomorrow evening.
Surface winds remain light out of the SW/S through tomorrow
morning, with a slight bump in wind speeds out of the south during
the afternoon light. Overall, VFR is anticipated to prevail at
all TAF sites through the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

With a fairly long fetch of onshore winds in the 12-17kt range
setting up in the coming days and through the weekend, we should
see the current 2 foot seas bump up a bit...closer to 3-4ft. Rain
chances increase Friday into early next week as deeper tropical
moisture moves into the area. Mariners should anticipate
scattered, to occasionally numerous, showers/tstms during the late
night through early afternoon hours on a daily basis. Winds and
seas will be higher in and near any stronger storms.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  97  76  95  78 /  10  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)  96  79  94  79 /  30  10  30  20
Galveston (GLS)  90  84  90  85 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LDavis/47
AVIATION...Mejia
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion