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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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711
FXUS64 KHGX 240549
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1249 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch trimmed back to include just coastal counties.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are still
  possible the next few days, but risk of widespread, significant
  impacts is lowering.

- Mariners should remain weather aware this holiday weekend.
  Better storm chances should be transitioning into the Gulf, but
  still close enough to the coast to keep abreast of the weather
  before venturing out on the water.

- Next storm system moves into the area Tuesday night or
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

GOES Total PW satellite imagery shows some lower PW air making
its way into the region from the west. Skies have partially
cleared across parts of the area and considering light winds &
damp ground, we should see some party fog development by morning.

Went ahead and canceled the Flood Watch for all but the coastal
counties. Rain chances are not eliminated but overall coverage and
intensity should be lower as the weakening mid-upper trof axis
pushes into East Texas today. There will still be some vorticity
streaming around its southern and eastern periphery which could
interact with the lingering 1.5-1.7" PW air generally along &
south of I-10 and east of I-45 which could trigger some additional
precipitation. But with the high rain amounts coastal locations
have seen the past several days, I`m hesitant to pull the watch
just yet until potential surprises are minimized. Hires guidance
suggests a diffuse llvl boundary that`ll be sagging off the coast
this morning will be the main focus, it`s a bit too close for
comfort attm. The dayshift may be able to cancel it if this ends
up being true.

Tuesday, this trof/weakness lifts north. But eyes then will be
focused to the west again as yet another shortwave trof begins
approaching the region. Guidance is in pretty good agreement showing
another complex of storms pushing across southeast Texas Tuesday
night and Wed. We`ll begin focusing on the finer details with this
one in the coming days. It looks somewhat progressive, but it
should have 2" PW`s to work with and some upper level diffluence
(suggesting the potential for training or regenerating storms).
Deterministic & AI data preliminarly suggesting another 1-4"
possible across the southern 2/3 of the region. With wet grounds
in place, flash flood guidance will probably be a bit lower than
normal, esp for those that`ve seen the highest totals the past
several days.

Beyond that, we should see some subtle ridging for the rest of the
work week/weekend - but probably not quite enough to suppress some
isolated to scattered diurnally driven activity.  47

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

SHRA/TSRA continues across the area as of 00z. A cluster of nearly
stationary thunderstorms has developed in the past hour around KCLL
and look to remain through 01-02z, though they may continue past
that. The SHRA is just about east of all TAF sites, though a few
remnant light showers may remain through 03z, mainly for KUTS and
KCXO. MVFR cigs and possibly visibility remain throughout the night
for most terminals as the saturated soils and light winds should
allow for misty/foggy conditions, mainly through 12-15z.
Precipitation coverage looks to be much less during the afternoon
tomorrow, with moderate confidence that any SHRA/TSRA forms
offshore. However, there still remains the chance for diurnally
driven thunderstorms, and the best chances for those remain at
terminals along and south of I-10. PROB30s continue for this at
those terminals, with PROB30 SHRA at KIAH. Precipitation does not
look to reach much further north than KIAH tomorrow. There is low to
moderate confidence of a cold front pushing through by 00z Monday,
which would bring a west to northwest wind component to the area.
However, confidence is not high enough to place in TAFs at this
time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Have the caution flags flying for a bit longer with the moderate
east and southeast winds in the coastal waters, but they`ll likely
begin diminishing and becoming more northeasterly toward morning
as a weak boundary pushes off the coast. This boundary will serve
as a focus for additional shower and thunderstorm development this
morning and afternoon. Though the bulk of stronger precipitation
should be situated in the Gulf, mariners in the bays should still
be cognizant of the possibility of some scattered storms closer to
the coast. Winds will eventually return to a more southeast
direction early in the week and increase in speed. The next
potentially moderate disturbance and associated storm complex is
expected to reach the upper Texas coast from the west Tuesday
night or Wednesday. 47

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Rivers/bayous are behaving themselves. There`s a few that have
risen into action stage (San Bernard, Tres Palacios, Lavaca), but
all are currently anticipated to remain below flood stage at this
time. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  84  68  86  68 /  20  20  10   0
Houston (IAH)  84  71  87  72 /  20  20  30   0
Galveston (GLS)  83  75  85  77 /  50  30  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Monday evening for TXZ214-235>238-335>338-
     436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 AM CDT early this
     morning for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...CG
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion