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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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177
FXUS64 KHGX 112341
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
541 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of nighttime & morning fog tonight-Sat night.

- Scattered showers on Saturday followed by clearing and breezy with
  a cold frontal passage Saturday night.

- Threat of a freeze Sunday night east of a College Station to
  Anahuac line.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Southeast winds are in the process of resuming across the area. As
such, we`ll see increasing dewpoints which will likely lead to
some fog development overnight. Patches of dense fog are a
possibility...esp along and west of I-45. Otherwise, warmer with
increasing cloud cover on Friday with a continued influx of Gulf
moisture.

Periods of fog & sea fog will remain in the fcst (mainly the nighttime
& morning variety) until the next passing front eliminates those
chances Saturday night into Sunday morning. Chances for some
scattered pockets of -ra/shra will gradually increase as the day
progresses Saturday and will be maximized along the frontal
convergence Saturday night. Precip will be ending for most all
inland locations Sunday morning as the front pushes offshore.

There is some pretty cold air behind this system, though with the
center of the 1040-1045mb high taking a more SE track toward the
Midwest and Tennessee Valley, we`ll get just the western periphery
of it. Even then, it appears areas east of a College Station-Kingwood-
Anahuac line could get some freezing temperatures Sunday night
(26-32F).

A gradual warm-up will then begin Monday night through midweek as
high pressure moves off to the east and a southeast flow resumes.
Guidance is still depicting the next mid-upper trof advancing
toward the area late Tue & Wed bringing another shot of some rain
for some locations.  47

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 541 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

TAFs largely on track for this evening but major questions lie
ahead. The main uncertainty revolves around degraded flight
conditions overnight, and this uncertainty revolves around all
aspects - precise timing of onset, character of poor conditions
(low stratus vs. fog), and intensity.

Timing is a bit quicker than guidance, as this is a typical
occurrence. Intensity stays with more high confidence in MVFR this
evening to IFR overnight. LIFR is likely to occur in some portions
of the area, but without a lot of confidence, keep those mentions
confined to TEMPOs for the time being. Finally, as to character,
opting to go with a "both and" approach, with CIGs and VSBY
restrictions.

Ultimately, while there`s high confidence in flight conditions
degrading tonight, it will be a continuous process of refinement
through this evening and overnight to keep the forecast in line
with the evolving reality.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 127 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Winds are in the process of returning to an onshore direction and
expect these to continue through Saturday night. Increasing moisture
may begin to lead to some patchy sea fog later tonight, followed
by greater chances Friday night into Saturday night. Scattered
showers will begin to pop up Saturday into Saturday night ahead of
an approaching cold front. This front will move through the
coastal waters late Saturday night or early Sunday morning, ending
the sea fog threat and ushering in moderate to strong northeasterly
winds and building seas for Sunday. Small Craft Advisories will
be needed. Winds and seas gradually diminish Monday, and return to
a southeast direction by Tuesday.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  49  71  58  73 /   0   0  10  20
Houston (IAH)  54  73  60  75 /   0  10  20  20
Galveston (GLS)  61  69  63  71 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion