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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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643
FXUS64 KHGX 271126
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
526 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another widespread hard freeze Tuesday morning. Freezing inland
  temperatures likely again Tuesdsay night and Wednesday night,
  though becoming less cold with each night.

- A gradual warming trend is expected through Thursday. However, a
  strong cold front is expected to push through late
  Thursday/early Friday with the potential for another round of
  hard freezes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1223 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

It`s a cold, clear, and calm night as I type this forecast
discussion. Strong ~1040 MB high pressure is in place over Texas.
The set up supports efficient radiational cooling, especially
away from the urban heat island. We suspect some rural cold spots
will drop well down into teens tonight. I could even see some
suburban spots dropping into the teens as well, while most in the
City of Houston likely hold on to the 20s. One area that`s
surprising me is Galveston Island, where temperatures are about as
cold as they are at Hobby Airport. So perhaps some of our coastal
communities will drop into the upper 20s. My official forecast
low at Galveston is 30F. We shall see if radiational cooling
allows Galveston to drop further.

High pressure will dominate the weather over the next few days, as
temperatures gradually trend warmer. There is some UL Pacific
moisture streaming our way along a subtropical jet. We already
have a little high cloud action in our area. But the bulk of the
upper clouds are still over Mexico and the Pacific. We expect
those clouds to continue streaming into our area, yielding to
less sunshine for some areas Tuesday afternoon as compared to
Monday afternoon. Afternoon temperatures are expected to be in
the mid 40s to low 50s. I think most non-coastal areas experience
a light freeze Tuesday night. However, northern zones may end up
with another hard freeze, albeit not as cold as previous nights.
The gradual warming trend will continue through Thursday.
Afternoon highs by Thursday could reach.....do I dare
say.....normal values? The blend used for our temperatures grids
show widespread highs in the low to mid 60s on Thursday across
our eastern and southern counties. But the warming trend won`t
last. The pattern favors yet another strong cold front by week`s
end. This one looks drier, but could have some rainfall activity
ahead of it, especially near the coast.

Long range guidance suggests another ~1040mb high will build down
the plains into Texas by the weekend in the wake of Friday`s
front. That could easily send weekend overnight lows back down
into the 20s, perhaps 10s in our northern counties. The outlook
for Saturday in quite cold, with highs ranging from the mid/upper
30s in our northern counties to low/mid 40s farther south. So for
those who love the cold, we are not done with Old Man Winter just
yet!

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 526 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Light winds, nothing more than cirrus moving in late to make any
difference from SKC.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1223 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Winds and seas will be much lower over the next several days. The
only lingering hazard will be the low waters levels that will
warrant cautious navigation in our bays during times of low tide.
The next weather feature of interest is a strong cold front that
is expected to push offshore by Friday. Strong northerly winds and
building seas will be likely in its wake. Small Craft Advisory
level winds and seas should easily be accomplished. Couldn`t rule
out gusts to gale force (up to 35 knots) over the open Gulf by
Friday and Saturday. These strong winds could result in another
round of low water levels.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1220 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Record low temperatures:

January 26:
Houston Intercontinental (IAH): 23 (1943)
Houston Hobby (HOU): 24(1940)
Galveston (GLS): 25 (1940)
Palacios (PSX): 30 (1961)

January 27:
Houston Intercontinental (IAH): 19 (1897)
Houston Hobby (HOU): 18 (1940)
Galveston (GLS): 21 (1897)
Palacios (PSX): 29 (1976)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  43  24  48  29 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  49  29  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  52  43  54  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST today for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday for GMZ330-335.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion