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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

682
FXUS64 KHGX 192347
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
647 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazardous Marine Conditions: Moderate to strong northeasterly
  winds and building seas are expected overnight through Sunday
  evening following the frontal passage. Gusts to gale are
  expected.

- A Wind Advisory is in effect for the barrier islands through
  12pm Sunday.

- Seasonal conditions expected in the wake of a cold front going
  into early next week.

- Shower/storm chances return early next week with the potential
  for another round of locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

A drier airmass has encompassed the area north of I-10 where cloud
cover remains sparse this afternoon. PWATs still hovering around
1.5" closer to the coast along with warm air advection in the
850mb level, so cloud cover will be more prominent south of the
I-10 corridor. May see a few light showers in the southernmost
coastal counties/southern coastal plains through the afternoon.
Cloud cover will expand northward through the overnight hours into
Monday. Clouds layer should be confined to the mid-upper levels as
we have a ripple in the 500 mb layer during the overnight hours
into Monday

An area of low pressure will develop over deep south Texas
overnight into Monday. While the majority of rainfall will occur
south and west of us, the proximity of the trough should result in
scattered showers over the southwestern sector (generally west of
I-45). Expecting it to be primarily showers as the airmass
expected to remain on the stable side and not conducive to
convective initiation.

A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will push through the
Central Plains on Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing more rounds of
rainfall to SE Texas. The majority of the area is encompassed in a
marginal risk of excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4) for Tuesday.
Rainfall totals from Monday through Wednesday will be around
1-1.5" for much of the area with isolated higher amounts possible.

Rain chances trend down Thursday, but will return Friday into the
weekend (albeit chances are around 20-30%) as more disturbances
push through and interact with available moisture (PWATs around
1.5-1.6").

Temperature wise, expect similar temperatures for Monday before
another warmup begins. By the end of the week highs will be in the
mid to upper 80s. Lows for tonight will drop into the upper 40s
up north and into the 50s further south. Areas along the coast
will hang around the 60s.

Bailey

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Predominately VFR overcast conditions across our terminals this
evening, with some MVFR ceilings possible to the southwest around
LBX. Light and variable winds overnight will gradually increase
through the morning to 8-12 kts out of the east. LBX will have
the best shot at seeing shower activity Monday as the highest rain
chances reside well west of the I-45 corridor.

McNeel

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

The Gale Warnings across the Gulf Waters have been replaced by a
Small Craft Advisory (which remains in effect for the bays as
well). Winds will continue to gust to around 30 kts in the
advisory area with sustained winds around 20-25 kts. Winds in the
bays will gradually diminish this evening, with easterly-
southeasterly winds prevailing monday into Monday night. Seas will
be slower to subside in the Gulf Waters, so the Advisory will
continue through tonight for that area.

Another round of showers is expected on Monday with isolated
thunderstorms possible during the afternoon hours, courtesy of
another upper level disturbance.

Water levels are expected to hover around 3.0 feet above Mean
Lower Low Water during high tide cycles through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  55  67  58  68 /  10  30  50  80
Houston (IAH)  56  69  60  69 /  10  20  30  80
Galveston (GLS)  67  73  69  76 /  10  30  40  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ350-355-370-
     375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Bailey

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion