Skip to main content.

National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

Related quick links> 5 Day Forecast, Local Advisories, Drought Monitor, UV Forecast, Air Quality Forecast 
141
FXUS64 KHGX 011155
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
655 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily chances of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
  begin Wednesday with the greatest chances late Saturday into
  Sunday as a cold front moves into/through the area.

- Unseasonably warm weather persists through Saturday, then the
  cold front ushers in cooler, more seasonal temperatures by
  Sunday and extending into early next week.

- Increasing risk of strong rip currents Thursday into the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

In last night`s discussion, we talked about how the fog potential
would be inhibited by winds remaining elevated thanks to elevated
winds aloft from a nearby LLJ. Whelp, we have the results and it
turns out our theory was correct! Go us!!! With that in mind, we
have another round of ~25 kt winds aloft which well help keep winds
a bit elevated overnight. Since we know what happened last night
with a similar setup, we can have a bit higher confidence on fog
potential being inhibited tonight as well. It`s not entirely
impossible though...just on the off chance fog develops just to
prove us wrong. Onshore flow will continue to increase low-level
moisture, which will lead to low temperatures mainly in the upper
60s to low 70s. Just for comparison, our normal HIGH temperature for
this time of the year is in the upper 70s. Daytime temperatures will
continue to be above normal with highs in the mid to upper 80s, but
there will be a few instances where we deviate from this thanks to
the return of rain chances!

Having rain chances in the forecast feels like a victory in and of
itself! The last time that the City of Houston had observable
rainfall (more than a trace) was March 11th...nearly three weeks
ago! As you can imagine, that`s not great for the ongoing drought
situation. ~83% of Southeast Texas remains in at least a severe
drought, but there is FINALLY some relief on the way. This rainfall
won`t take us out of drought conditions completely, but it certainly
won`t cause further degradations.

The first opportunity for rainfall comes on Wednesday into Thursday.
PW values reach near or above the 90th percentile (~1.50") by late
Wednesday. Couple that with a LLJ, a passing embedded shortwave, and
daytime heating, and we have potential for isolated to scattered
showers and storms in the afternoon hours. As a shortwave trough
pushes through the Four Corners region on Wednesday, a subsequent
surface low will develop near the Oklahoma Panhandle and drift
northeastward. An associated cold front will will push into the
northwestern portion of the state but stall out in this region.
Moisture convergence along the front will have PW values well above
the 90th percentile. Divergence aloft only adds to the favorable
environment for showers/storms, but the more favorable support looks
to be over the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods. With PW values as
high as they are, locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out. The
general timing for this looks to be Thursday morning into the early
afternoon hours. PW values remain elevated going into Friday and
with more passing embedded shortwaves and daytime heating, chances
for showers/storms persist.

Late Saturday into Sunday is when the next high chances of rain
comes. This is due to another cold front, but this one looks to
actually push through thanks to more favorable upper level support
through an upper level low sweeping through the CONUS. It still
remains a little too early to look into the exact synoptic details,
but the ingredients do look to be in place for moderate to heavy
rainfall. As a result, WPC has outlined all of Southeast Texas in a
marginal risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall. Model guidance
still remains wishy-washy on if this front will push cleanly through
or if it`ll linger near the coast leading to rain chances sticking
around through Sunday. Be sure to stay up to date on the forecast
especially if you have any outdoor plans over the holiday weekend.
Cooler and more seasonal temperatures will follow in the wake of
this front going into early next week.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Widespread LIFR conditions ongoing. Expect conditions to improve
to VFR by this afternoon. Winds will be out of the southeast today
at 10-15 knots with gusts to around 25 kts. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are in the forecasst today between
19-23Z (give or take a couple hours). MVFR CIGs return overnight.
Winds will remain elevated overnight with minimal fog expected
(may develop in areas that experience lighter winds)

Bailey

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and 2-4 ft seas will
persist through late Wednesday. A tightening pressure gradient late
Wednesday will lead to winds and seas increasing likely warranting a
period of caution flags through at least Thursday morning. This
increased onshore flow will increase the risk of rip currents
going into the latter half of the week and into the weekend.
Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the week,
but especially over the weekend as a cold front pushes through
Saturday night. Uncertainty remains on if the cold front will push
offshore or linger along the coast through Sunday. Moderate
offshore flow and elevated seas are expected in the wake of this
front into Monday.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  87  69  83  70 /  20  20  60  10
Houston (IAH)  85  72  83  73 /  30  10  40  10
Galveston (GLS)  78  73  79  73 /  30   0  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion