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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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957
FXUS64 KHGX 081749
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1249 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered seabreeze showers and thunderstorms expected on a
  daily basis through early next week.

- Showers/storms could become more numerous on Monday, especially
  in our southern and coastal counties.

- Pattern turns drier and hotter by mid/late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

At first glance, the pattern today appears to be a carbon copy of
yesterday. But subtle differences become apparent once one takes a
closer look at the atmosphere. Our large scale synoptic features
remain relatively in stasis, with a ridge over W CONUS, another
ridge off the E CONUS coast, and modest troughing over the Mid
Atlantic and Mississippi River Valley. One subtle, yet not
insignificant, difference is the presence of a weak mid/upper
trough that extends from S Illinois to NE Texas. This trough is
apparent on WV imagery as well as 500 MB RAP analysis. We are even
beginning to see (as of 1130AM) some convective initiation along
the trough axis in Arkansas. The other difference is the higher
PWATs pushing in from the Gulf. Yesterday, PWAT values averaged
1.60-1.80 inches. Today, we have values as high as 2.0-2.1 inches.
Therefore, today`s atmosphere features less ridging and more
moisture, likely resulting in at least a little more scattered
shower/thunderstorm activity than we saw yesterday. In addition,
the higher PWATs suggest showers/storms could result in locally
very heavy downpours. We are also watching convection and
boundaries to the north of our CWA that could result in a few
thunderstorms in our northern Piney Woods counties later this
afternoon and evening. Regarding temperatures, expect another
August day with highs in the 90s and moderate humidity. Sunday
looks similar to today, though CAMs guidance suggest slightly less
shower/thunderstorm coverage. Many locations will not receive a
shower or storm this weekend. But those that do, could easily
experience brief very heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and
gusty winds.

Over the Gulf looms a pool of deep tropical moisture. When looking
vertically at the plume of higher PWAT currently moving into SE
Texas, you`ll see high RH extending up to about 450-500 MB. But
the deeper plume of moisture over the Gulf extends to 250-300MB.
Monday will feature the same diurnal and mesoscale forcings that
bring us coastal / offshore isolated to scattered showers/storms
in the morning and seabreeze related showers/storms in the
afternoon. But on top of those processes, Monday`s atmosphere will
be more moisture rich. Therefore, showers/storms may end up being
more numerous, especially in our southern and coastal counties.
The expected environment also suggests a higher risk for locally
heavier rainfall. Despite the higher chance of rain, Monday`s
temperatures are still forecast to be well into 90s. Humidity
levels are likely to be higher due to the lack of drier air to mix
down.

Ridging is expected to build by Tuesday and beyond, resulting in
increasing temperatures and decreasing PoPs as we head into the
middle to later part of next week. Some inland hot spots could be
reaching 100 degrees by week`s end.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

The main aviation concern is isolated to scattered showers and
storms today and tomorrow afternoon/evening. Most of the showers
and storms should develop along an enhanced seabreeze front that
develops near the coast and moves inland through the afternoon
into the evening hours. The likelihood of showers developing along
this boundary is high, but the coverage of thunderstorms should
only be around 30%. Therefore, most TAF sites have a prevailing
VCSH group with a PROB30 for on-station thunderstorm impacts.
Today`s storms will have potential to produce erratic wind shifts
and brief drops in visibility in the heavier rain cores. All
showers and storms should come to an end with the loss of heating
and the outflow progressing further inland, allowing for VFR and
light south to southeast flow to prevail overnight.

Patches of MVFR ceilings are forecast to develop across the
northern and western portions of the forecast area late tonight
and tomorrow morning. Although we did not include visibility
restrictions in any TAF, there is a 20-30% chance of 3-5 SM
visibility for locations north of I-10 between about 10-16Z.

Better moisture will move inland tomorrow, resulting in another
day of showers and storms in the area. While the general trends
should be about the same as today, we do expect slightly higher
coverage of precip along the seabreeze front. We only included
VCSH toward the tail-end of the TAFs with this TAF package, but
VCTS or TEMPO TS may be warranted for tomorrow and especially
Monday afternoons.

Bonnette

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1043 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Light to moderate south to southeast winds and 1-3 foot seas are
expected over the next several days, along with a daily risk of
showers / thunderstorms. For the coast and offshore areas, the
highest chance of a thunderstorm will be during the morning hours.
The bays have a risk of seeing a shower or storm during the
morning and early afternoon hours. Beyond Monday, the chance of
showers/storms decreases. Onshore winds are expected to increase
somewhat during the second half of the week, which may result in
2-4 foot (locally 5 ft offshore) seas by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  75  95  75  95 /  10  10   0  10
Houston (IAH)  78  94  78  93 /  10  30  10  50
Galveston (GLS)  82  89  82  89 /  10  30  50  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Bonnette
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion