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100
FXUS64 KHGX 041909
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
209 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through this
  afternoon. Most of the activity will remain confined to the
  coast.

- Much lower humidity and cooler nights Monday - Wednesday.

- After a break in the rain/humidity, we should see chances ramp
  back up across parts of the region Thur-Sat (especially coastal
  areas).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Today the rain showers are driven by two different features in the
coastal and Brazos Valley regions. First, coastal troughing and its
associated stationary boundary remain glued to the coast through
tomorrow morning before finally exiting. The PWAT`s remain in the
90TH percentile, resulting in continual rain showers. These showers
will periodically meander inland, while the majority remain off
shore. Second, a shortwave trough feature continues to drop south
from the Brazos Valley into the Piney Woods, also producing rain
showers. Activity associated with these features is not anticipated
to become convective, with mostly cloudy skies keeping the
atmosphere more stable. While both features are over the region,
minimum interaction is anticipated as marginally increased surfaced
based CAPE interacts with the weakening shortwave trough initiating
showers over the eastern counties before reaching the I-10 corridor.
All across the area the one similarity is a continual NNE breeze
with occasional gusts that keep temperatures mild.

Monday, a surface high pressure system begins to build in from the
Plains and initiates a stronger gradient with expanded NE flow. This
increases the probability of bringing decreased dewpoints and
"cooler" temperatures. 90th percentile temperatures remain in the
mid-upper 80`s, so about a 10% chance of highs reaching into the
90s. Overnight lows also become more seasonally normal. Temperatures
north of I-10 will lower into in the mid 60`s while the city and
coastline remain in the low-mid 70`s.

In the longer forecast period the surface high pressure sticks
around through about mid week before lifting northward. A trough
moves northward through the Gulf and hugs the coastline as moisture
returns to the area around the middle of next week. This compresses
the gradient and brings back SSE flow. Thus humidity, temperatures
and rain chances all increase at the end of the work week into the
next weekend.

Whitaker/Bailey

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Widespread MVFR with a few IFR conditions continue across
southeast Texas as a vast low cloud deck remains overhead. Some
terminals may improve to high-end MVFR this afternoon. A frontal
boundary will continue moving off the coast today, resulting in
low CIGs and -SHRA/TSRA across coastal terminals. Another area of
SHRA impacted northern terminals this morning, but is on a
weakening trend as it moves SW. Expect terminals from HOU
coastward to experience the majority of rain/storm chances through
the afternoon. Moderate NE winds will prevail with gusts up to 20
knots through the afternoon. Conditions will gradually improve to
VFR from NW to SE later this evening into tonight.

Bailey

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

The presence of a trough in the western Gulf and the gradual
building of a surface high over the central United States will
steepen the gradient and enhance northeast winds and seas through
Monday, and likely through Tuesday. Small Craft Advisory is in
effect for the Gulf waters through Monday, and could be extended
further. There will also be periods of Small Craft level winds in
the bays, particularly lower bays. Winds could gust over 30 knots
at times, especially over the Gulf and near/within thunderstorms. We
haven`t issued an advisory for the bays but cannot rule out an
advisory being warranted. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms continue this afternoon. The chance of showers and
thunderstorms will shift farther offshore Monday- Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  67  84  64  86 /  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  72  87  71  88 /  20   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  77  86  77  87 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Monday afternoon for
     GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ350-355-370-
     375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Whitaker/Bailey
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...CMW

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion