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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion
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703
FXUS64 KHGX 092344
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
544 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cloudy and cool for the next couple days with some chances of
mainly light rain.
- Cold front is expected Wednesday night followed by drier cooler
weather for the remainder of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026
A cool start to the workweek with mostly cloudy skies and
temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s early this
afternoon. The combination of passing shortwaves aloft (in
response to an approaching upper-low) and a surface trough
extending over the Deep South, along with a decent amount of low
level moisture have led to widespread light to moderate showers
with a few thunderstorms across portions of SE TX. This activity
will continue to move across the region from southwest to
northeast this afternoon, before gradually tapering off this
evening. With drier air filtering in from the northeast, most of
the activity generally north of Conroe will remain very light. In
terms of rainfall amounts, around 0.5 to 1.0 inches of rain has
fallen across our southwestern counties, with some locations close
to 1.5 inches in Jackson and Wharton counties. Additional
rainfall totals should remain less than a quarter of an inch
through this evening.
Mostly cloudy skies and cool weather continue on Tuesday as the
aforementioned upper low finally moves over the region and lifts
northeast into the Mississippi Valley through the day. Additional
rounds of light rain can be expected, with the best chances
remaining along and south of I-10. With passing shortwaves aloft
and deep convergence lingering at the surface, showers with
isolated thunderstorms will continue on Wednesday, again with the
best chances over the coastal counties.
A cold front is progged to enter the region late Wednesday
through Thursday, followed by a building ridge over the western
CONUS. Drier conditions with near normal temperatures can be
expected through at least Saturday. Highs will generally remain in
the 70s, with the lows generally dropping into the 40s!...
Ridging aloft weakens as a trough slides across the Plains late
this weekend. This will result in the return of rain chances
across the region late Saturday through early next week.
JM
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 541 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026
SHRA / -SHRA will impact the southern half of the region this
evening and tonight, with more isolated -SHRA farther north.
Deterministic guidance suggest we`ll have a mostly VFR night, with
occasional sub-VFR during times of SHRA. But REFS forecast
soundings suggest the potential for more sustained low-end MVFR
late tonight into tomorrow morning. For now, we show borderline
VFR / MVFR overnight, with lower end MVFR conditions in TEMPO
groups between the 08-12Z time frame. There may be another round
of SHRA late overnight and into the morning hours near the coast.
Tomorrow features lower rain chances. But there may still be
isolated SHRA on Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 136 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026
Light to moderate northeast winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft will
continue through late this afternoon, particularly for the Gulf
waters west of Freeport and near showers. Winds will continue to
weaken this evening and persist through late Wednesday. Moderate
winds and building seas are again expected early Thursday in the
wake of the next frontal passage. A few light showers are possible
through midweek, with the best chances on Wednesday.
JM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 54 74 57 79 / 20 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 56 76 60 79 / 20 10 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 65 74 66 75 / 20 20 30 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 PM CST this evening
for GMZ330-350-370.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...JM
NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion