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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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426
FXUS64 KHGX 062307
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
507 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing cloudiness later today and tonight. Rain chances
  increase Saturday night and Sunday across western parts of the
  region.

- Cool conditions anticipated Sunday with abundant cloud cover and
  scattered showers in the area.

- Increasing seas with northeasterly winds gusting to near 30
  knots will be possible Sunday into Sunday night over the Gulf
  waters.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1057 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

A weak reinforcing cold front as pushed through the area to
continue our more fall-like weather with high temperatures rising
into the upper 70s to low 80s with a light north to northeasterly
wind and mostly sunny skies. The rather benign weather will
continue into Saturday, but increasing moisture and an
approaching upper-level disturbance will lead to increasing cloud
cover through the day.

This aforementioned upper-level disturbance will be moving south
through the Four Corners region today into NW Mexico before very
slowly moving through Texas Sunday into Monday. Looking down at
the surface, a coastal low begins to deepen down along the Coastal
Bend portion of the Texas coast on Saturday. A combination of this
strengthening surface low, PVA from the approaching upper-level
disturbance, and some decent upper-level divergence will lead to
increasing rain chances Saturday night through Sunday. The areas
with the best chance to see rainfall will be the counties closest
to the coastal low, so for our area it will be the areas near
Matagorda Bay. However, I would not out-rule some isolated
showers expanding across most of SE Texas on Sunday. The factor
that has the most influence on which areas see the best chance for
rain on Sunday will be the location of the coastal low. If it
ends up a little further north, then those rain chances move north
with it. If it ends up developing further south, then it`s
possible the bulk of the rain stays down in the CRP area.

PWATs on Sunday will be around 1.25-1.5", which is near normal for
this time of year, but could still result in a brief heavy shower
or downpour. PWATs south of Matagorda Bay will approach the 90th
percentile, so if that system moves further north than currently
forecasted then some of these higher PWATs could stretch into the
Matagorda Bay region. WPC maintains a Level 1 of 4 (Marginal) on
their Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Sunday for portions of
Jackson, Matagorda, and Wharton counties. Looking at rainfall
totals of up to around 0.5" west of the Brazos River, with a
trace to 0.25" possible further east. There could be some isolated
higher amounts near 1" near Matagorda Bay if some of those
heavier showers materialize. Recent dryness has lead to the 3-hour
FFG in this area is around 3-4", so the likelihood we would see
flash flooding is pretty low. This coastal low will stick around
through the start of the workweek, so additional isolated to
scattered showers will be possible along the coast through at
least Tuesday. A strengthening surface high will begin to stretch
across the Southern Plains mid to late week next week to bring the
return of mostly sunny and dry conditions.

The developing coastal trough will also lead to increasing winds
over the coastal waters (more on that in the Marine Section below)
that may bleed over into the immediate coast lead to breezy
conditions Sunday into Monday.

Between cloud cover, rain chances, and a northeasterly wind, the
temperatures on Sunday are expected to be on the cooler side with
highs possibly staying in the mid to upper 60s for most of the
region. Temperatures do begin to rebound into the 70s on Monday as
the cloud cover and rain chances decrease, and then into the mid
to upper 70s by the end of the week as that high pressure builds
into the region.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 459 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

In short, VFR conditions persist through the TAF period. Light
and variable winds and BKN mid level clouds prevail. Clouds become
overcast by mid-morning and stick around through the day
tomorrow. Winds increase and settle out of the ENE by Saturday
morning, and persist into the evening hours.

MLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1057 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

A weak front has pushed off the coast resulting in light
northeasterly winds this afternoon. Cooler temperatures tonight
over the warm coastal waters may lead to an increase in winds to
around 15kt with occasional gusts to 20kt, so small craft may need
to exercise caution over the Gulf waters after midnight.

A developing coastal low down near CRP will lead to continued
strengthening winds across our coastal waters through the weekend.
Small Craft Advisories are likely to be issued late Saturday
night and continue into Sunday night as the northeasterly winds
increase to around 25kt with gusts to 30kt. There will possibly be
isolated higher gusts in the offshore waters off of Matagorda Bay
on Sunday that we will be monitoring for in the coming forecasts.
The stronger winds will also lead to seas building to 6-9ft with
isolated higher seas. That developing coastal low will also lead
to increased chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms on
Sunday.

Winds and seas begin to decrease by Monday as the coastal low
weakens, but may see continued chances for isolated showers
through Tuesday.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  61  75  56  67 /   0   0  20  30
Houston (IAH)  64  77  58  69 /   0   0  20  30
Galveston (GLS)  69  76  63  71 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from midnight CST tonight
     through Saturday morning for GMZ355-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...MLG
MARINE...Fowler

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion