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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion
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580
FXUS64 KHGX 060017
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
717 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered to occasionally numerous showers and storms are
expected today and Saturday.
- High rainfall rates will result in minor flooding of poor
drainage areas as well as a risk for isolated flash flooding.
- Look for increasing winds/seas/rip current risk along the coast
starting today through at least the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026
A weak southern stream upper low remains to the west of the Big
Bend today, while at the surface high pressure remains over the
Southeast CONUS. Veering flow from easterly/southeasterly at the
surface to southwesterly aloft is present, with deep layer moist
onshore flow. Convergence between east winds associated with high
pressure over our eastern counties and southeasterly to southerly
winds elsewhere has resulted in some heavier rain bands this
morning. This convergence will weaken later in the day, but
daytime heating will continue to result in additional shower and
thunderstorm development. Upper-level divergence will also be
present downstream of the upper low. PWATs are in the 2 to 2.2
inch range with saturated profiles, weak lapse rates aloft, and a
deep warm cloud layer. This will continue to favor high rainfall
rates with quick amounts of 1-3", with isolated 4"+ amounts per
HREF max values. Minor flooding of poor drainage areas is expected
with a risk for at least isolated flash flooding, and WPC has
expanded the slight risk of excessive rainfall eastward with the
morning update. Activity should diminish this evening, though rain
chances will persist in portions of the Brazos Valley where
remnants of upstream convection may move in overnight.
The upper low will move slowly northeastward across West Texas on
Saturday and begin to open up into a wave as it moves to the
Central Plains on Sunday. There will be less convergence on
Saturday as high pressure moves to the east, and mid-level flow
will be a bit stronger helping cells to move a little more.
However, there will be little change in air mass and
unidirectional flow will continue to be favorable for training
convection. Therefore, expect another day of high rain chances
Saturday with a continued risk for locally heavy rainfall. Heights
begin to rise Sunday as the shortwave lifts northward with mid-
levels beginning to dry out. This will begin to decrease the
coverage of showers and storms, but PWATs will remain above
normal.
Subtropical ridging will strengthen over the Gulf and southern
CONUS next week. This will result in showers and storms becoming
more isolated as PWATs trend closer to normal. Temperatures will
also begin to warm up, with heat indices mainly in the 100-107
range. A few locations may begin to approach 108 heat indices late
in the period.
JDavis
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026
Shower and thunderstorm activity is in the process of ending for
the evening. Still have a few showers near LBX, but even these
should dissipate before sunset. VFR conditions with SCT to BKN
mid-level clouds will continue through the evening, but with light
winds and moist grounds, I am expected MVFR conditions to begin to
emerge around 4-6z with widespread MVFR conditions beginning
around 9-11z with CIGs around 1000ft. Cannot out rule some periods
of IFR conditions with CIGs down to 700-800ft. These clouds will
begin to scatter out through the late morning with VFR conditions
returning by 17-19z.
Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
tomorrow. The first round of storms may develop as early as
sunrise, and then additional pop-up thunderstorms are expected
through the afternoon and into the evening (similar to today).
Exact locations of the thunderstorms are unknown at this time, so
have predominately gone with VCSH with PROB30 of TS for most
terminals.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026
Winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots Saturday night into Sunday,
which will probably necessitate caution flags. Due to the
prolonged SE to E winds, additional water will be piling up at the
east/south facing shores. Rip current risk will steadily increase
through the weekend and into the early parts of next week.
Coastal flooding does not seem to be a concern right now but a few
of the lowest lying spots may see water during high tide.
JDavis
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 73 85 74 87 / 50 70 20 50
Houston (IAH) 75 87 76 89 / 20 80 20 30
Galveston (GLS) 80 87 82 88 / 20 30 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JDavis
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...JDavis
NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion
