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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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757
FXUS64 KHGX 061016
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
516 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to occasionally numerous showers and storms are
  expected today.

- High rainfall rates will result in minor flooding of poor
  drainage areas as well as a risk for isolated flash flooding.

- Look for increasing winds/seas/rip current risk along the coast
  starting today through at least the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

WPC has upgraded portions of Southeast Texas, including the Houston
metro area, to a slight risk of excessive rainfall (level 2 of 4)
for today. This is due to a combination of Friday`s rainfall
leaving areas generally along the I-10 corridor fairly saturated
and the potential for localized rainfall amounts exceeding 3-4"
today. Any rainfall that occurs along or near the I-10 corridor
would see a quick transition to runoff, which means street
flooding could occur quicker than usual. Members of the 00Z HREF
continue to indicate the potential for a localized rainfall maxima
exceeding 4" today, but the exact location of where this occurs
remains uncertain. The highest probability of occurrence would be
near or south of I-10. The HREF has performed fairly well over
the past couple of days with highlighting the potential and
general location for these localized higher rainfall amounts.

With PW values above 2" streaming in as an upper level low further
induces lift, rainfall rates will peak in the 3-4" per hour range
once again. This could lead to quick bursts of 1-3+" rainfall
amounts depending on where the heavy rain sets up. If this occurs
around the Houston metro area again, then we would see rises along
local bayous/streams in addition to street flooding potential.
We`ll continue to monitor trends through the morning and into the
afternoon, so be sure to remain weather aware and have multiple
ways to receive alerts.

As far as rivers go, we have our eyes on the San Bernard and the
Lavaca/Navidad River basins for rises based on upstream rainfall
that has already fallen and today`s anticipated rainfall. As of
right now, we`re only looking at isolated rises into action stage.
Remember that you can monitor updated river forecasts via the NWS
NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/).

Batiste

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Jun 5 2026

An weakly closed upper level low is currently transiting northeast
through Texas and will open again moving into the Great Plains
and that should help reduce the morning convection. However, we
still have one more day where we`ll have scattered to numerous
showers and storms during the day. High resolution short term
models are still showing early convection during the morning
hours, then transitioning into the more diurnally driven
seabreeze/outflow boundary type storms in the afternoon. Plenty of
moisture continues to enter the area from the gulf and expecting a
similar setup to yesterday where high PW values along with
training storms will bring another heavy rainfall threat today.
Much of the area has seen widespread amounts of 1-3 inches with
localized in excess of 4 inches. Soils are getting fairly
saturated and in urban areas already hit will have much of the
rain falling as runoff. The hardest hit areas basically have flash
flood guidance of less than an inch. Storms will be efficient
rainmakers with rainfall rates of 1-3+ inches easily. This will
cause street flooding in poor drainage areas, rises in local
streams/bayous and some isolated flash flooding. A few points are
in action stage so it wouldn`t take too much more to push into
minor stage. Some relief from the stormy weather will come Sunday.
Upper level ridging will begin to build in the western part of
the continental US. Unfortunately the trade off on that will be
with less cloud cover and rain will have high temperatures build
from the upper 80s to low 90s Sunday to the mid to upper 90s by
the end of the week. Heat index values will be reaching 105 to 108
by mid week.

Another concern for this weekend will be the high risk of rip
currents on gulf facing shores. Local beaches have had red flags
flying today and will likely continue for the next few days as
onshore flow will continue to pile water into the coastal areas.
Please heed safety advice if going to the beach this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 516 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A mixed bag of ceilings early this morning ranging from LIFR to
VFR. Ceilings are expected to remain at or below MVFR through the
early to mid-morning hours before returning to VFR by the late
morning/early afternoon. Main aviation impact for the day beyond
ceilings will be timing of scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Latest high-resolution model guidance is pointing
towards activity along the coast gradually increasing in coverage
later this morning, then coverage vastly expanding going into the
late morning and early afternoon. Decreased ceilings/visibilities
expected in heavy downpours. The timing of the TEMPOs is the
highest confidence window for showers/storms, but it`s entirely
possible for these conditions to occur a couple of hours before or
after this timeframe.

Shower/storm coverage decreases this evening, but so do ceilings
as widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings are anticipated once again
going into Sunday morning. Isolated to scattered showers/storms
are expected to develop again beginning Sunday morning.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Jun 5 2026

Persistent onshore flow continues for the coastal waters for the
rest of this week and much of next week. Winds will remain
southeasterly at around 10 to 15 knots but will increase to 15 to
20 knots late tonight into early tomorrow. Small craft exercise
caution flags will likely be needed for parts of Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  86  75  87  76 /  60  20  30  10
Houston (IAH)  87  77  89  78 /  80  20  40  10
Galveston (GLS)  88  82  88  82 /  50  20  40  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BL
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...BL

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion