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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

957
FXUS64 KHGX 250523
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1223 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat advisory remains in effect through Tuesday.

- Very hot conditions and risk of isolated showers/thunderstorms in
  the afternoons continues through Wednesday.

- Increase in rain chances from Thursday night into the weekend
  allow for some relief from the heat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

An upper-level ridge anchored over New Mexico and West TX remains
strong, resulting in continuing hot temperatures and minimal
precipitation through Wednesday. The sfc pressure gradient tightens
along the coast each afternoon, allowing for daily seabreezes.
Satellite shows some mid to high level clouds creeping into our area
from the east, thanks to precip earlier in the day over Louisiana.
Combination of these remnant clouds, more coming in from the north
during the day...high temperatures may be a few degrees cooler
than previous days. High temps are still forecasted to reach
around 100F today and 100F+ in spots to the northwest and in the
metro area tomorrow. Closer to the coast, temps are forecast to
reach the low to mid 90s. Heat indicies might not reach the 108F+
advisory criteria for all locations today, but will keep the Heat
Advisory going to stay consistent with messaging since we`ll probably
need it again Wednesday with less cloud cover and as dews increase
again.

But wait... is that a light at the end of the tunnel? That ever-
persistent upper-level ridge drifts slightly westward late on
Thursday night, which would situate SE TX just between the ridge to
our west and the trough to our east. Heights will fall over our
area, making room for some shortwave action and vorticity maxes
aloft. In addition, onshore flow will increase moisture content
during the day, and temperatures remain warm enough to trigger
some diurnally driven showers/thunderstorms in the afternoons. As
a result, rain chances increase late Thursday night into the
weekend. It is still Texas in August, so heat indicies remain in
the triple digits; dewpoints remain in the mid 60s to lower 70s so
it will still feel hot and humid this weekend. On the bright
side, the increase in rain and cloud cover during the day should
lower daytime highs to a more bearable 93-97F range by the
weekend.

MLG

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Like previous nights, we cannot completely rule out some MVFR
cigs/vis west and south of the metro area in the 10-14z timeframe.
Otherwise, some additional weak upper level disturbances riding
down in the northerly flow aloft should bring some isolated
shra/tstm activity, mainly to our e/ne later today, but we should
see some associated SCT/BKN cloud decks ~15kft. Light sw winds
this morning transition to the south this afternoon. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

The forecast remains persistent, with a typical summertime pattern
continuing through the week. Seas of 1-3 ft continue. Winds follow a
pattern of SW overnight and into the late morning, then turn more S
in the afternoon and evening with the generation of the seabreeze.
Wind speed over the offshore Gulf waters are highest in the evening
and overnight period, at around 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts.
Winds decrease during the day to around 7-10kts, and this cycle
continues through the week. In general Bay waters are a few kts
higher than offshore waters, and are highest during the day as the
seabreeze kicks in. Rain chances are minimal to start the week, but
starting on Thursday, rain chances increase with the highest chances
being on Friday.

MLG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 101  78 103  79 /   0   0  20  10
Houston (IAH) 100  79 102  81 /  10   0  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  92  84  94  84 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MLG
AVIATION...47
MARINE...MLG

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion