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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

533
FXUS64 KHGX 061718
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1218 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to widespread storms are anticipated through this
  evening. Periods of heavy rainfall is possible at times and
  could lead to ponding of water along roadways and areas of
  poor drainage.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected throughout
  the week, mainly focused over areas near and south of I-10.

- High temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 90s inland
  and the upper 80s to lower 90s along the coast through the end
  of the work week. Isolated spots west of I-45 could see highs in
  the upper 90s at times.

 &&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

We will continue to see additional shower and thunderstorm
development this afternoon as diurnal heating and instability
peaks. The GOES-19 Total Precipitation Water satellite image at
11 am this morning indicated amounts between 2.1-2.4 inches; this
will lead to periods of heavy rainfall with rainfall amounts of
2-3 inches per hour at times. Ponding of water and minor flooding
is possible in localized areas, in particular for storms with
little movement. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
dissipate this evening as diurnal heating decreases and the
environment becomes more stable.

The high temperatures this afternoon will be in the low to mid
90s with heat indices peaking between 100-107 deg F. For tonight
into early Monday, warm and tranquil conditions are expected with
calm/light winds and low temperatures mainly in the mid to upper
70s inland and the upper 70s to lower 80s along the coasts.

Low level moisture is expected to lower early next week, with PWs
forecast to decrease to 1.8-2.1 inches on Monday and 1.7-2.0 on
Tuesday. The mid level high pressure currently over the Texas
Panhandle will shift into Oklahoma and models indicate increasing
dams (592-594) over Southeast Texas Monday into Tuesday. Models
also show drier air along the mid-levels for both days. Even with
relatively good moisture amounts along the surface, overall rain
chances are therefore expected to be slightly less and generally
focused over areas near and south of I-10 and the coastal Gulf
waters. The afternoon seabreeze will also contribute to storm
development.

Chance for showers and thunderstorms may increase again on
Wednesday as another surge of moisture moves in from the Gulf
waters and increases the local PWs to up to around 2.2 inches.
Locally heavy rain may be possible. Daily rain chances will then
continue into the end of the week as the high pressure weakens
over Southeast Texas (or shifts away) and a mid-upper level
disturbance moves through.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Scattered showers and isolated storms will continue through the
afternoon, then later taper off into the evening. Light variable
winds are expected overnight. May briefly see some patchy fogs/low
CIGs early Monday, though much of the area should remain VFR.
Showers will develop over the Gulf waters Monday morning. Stronger
ridging should result in less coverage/isolated showers inland,
though cannot completely rule out a thunderstorm or two in the
afternoon.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Light winds and seas of 2 feet or less are expected over the next
several days. Although we still have chance for showers and
thunderstorms early next week, coverage will be less on Monday and
Tuesday as drier air moves in and high pressure builds. Higher
shower and storm chances are then expected mid to late week as
moisture rises and disturbances move overhead.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  95  76  95  77 /  60   0  10  10
Houston (IAH)  93  78  94  79 /  60  10  20   0
Galveston (GLS)  90  82  91  83 /  60  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cotto
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Cotto

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion