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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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273
FXUS64 KHGX 042352
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
652 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer, more clouds, and breezier, on Tuesday...but still mostly
  rain-free.

- Weak cold front begins approaching the region Wednesday
  afternoon and should initiate some scattered showers and
  thunderstorms. A few could be strong =severe north of I-10.

- Though not a total washout, there will be additional
  opportunities through the weekend as a series of upper
  disturbances pass overhead.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

With the return of southerly winds, Gulf moisture is flowing back
into the region and bringing higher dewpoints, RH`s, and cloud
cover. Instead of the 50s like we`ve seen the past few nights,
overnight lows will be trending upward into the 68-75F range
tonight and Tuesday night. And with warmer starts to the day,
expect daytime highs to be a bit higher too.

Weak front will begin approaching northern parts of SE TX
Wednesday afternoon. Anticipate that we`ll see some scattered
convection develop ahead of the boundary as we get into peak
heating. Am still weary of the capping situation that might have
to be overcome first for any significant convection, but the more
favorable locations for that to happen will generally be north of
the I-10 corridor (and more specifically our NE counties near Lake
Livingston) as we head into the peak heating hours. Let`s keep an
eye out for an isolated strong to severe cell or two there.
There`s less fcst instability further south and closer to the
coast, especially after the loss of heating, but not to the point
of ignoring considering the time of year.

The front will slowly sag southward overnight and eventually off
the coast Thursday morning. Looking for a continued messy sw flow
aloft, and we`d anticipate some scattered shower and isolated
tstm chances to continue both ahead of, and behind, the front into
Thursday.

The front lifts back north in the Gulf on Friday, eventually
leaving a weak pseudo coastal trof in the area heading into
Saturday. During this same time period, the mid-upper low situated
over ncnl Mexico will be weakening/filling and eventually push
eastward across the state and bring some additional chances of
precipitation. Overall, the 12z guidance doesn`t look as bullish
in terms of weekend POPs as yesterday, but would still anticipate
some scattered activity with this general pattern.  47

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected this evening along with S-SE winds at
10-15 KTS with gusts up to around 20 KTS. Winds will be around 10
KTS during the overnight hours. MVFR cigs are expected to develop
tonight into Tue morning. There is a chance some locations could
even lower to IFR. By around 15Z, winds will strengthen again to
10-15 KTS with gusts of 20-25 KTS. Cigs are expected to slowly
lift during the day, possibly scattering in the late afternoon to
evening period. However, there is a chance some locations could
see BKN decks for much of the daytime period.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

South to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots will prevail through
midweek. Went ahead and hoisted the caution flags this evening
and overnight. They`ll probably need to the extended into the day
Tuesday too. The next cold front, and isolated to scattered
showers or thunderstorms, is forecast to push off the coast
Thursday morning. This front does not appear to be as strong in
terms of wind speeds compared to the last two. North and northeast
winds behind the front swing back around to the east and
southeast on Friday and continue into the weekend. Additional rain
chances are expected this weekend in association with a slow
moving upper level disturbance moving into the region from the
west. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  69  87  73  86 /   0   0  10  40
Houston (IAH)  70  86  75  88 /  10  10  10  50
Galveston (GLS)  73  81  76  84 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Tuesday morning for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion