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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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621
FXUS64 KHGX 250536
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1236 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers and
  thunderstorms today.

- Next storm system moves into the area late Tuesday night and
  Wednesday. Will be monitoring the potential for some localized
  strong storms and/or heavy rain.

- Less active weather anticipated during the second half of the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Broad mid-upper trof situated over Texas with a vort/MCV rotating
around north central Texas early this morning. This feature
should sag southward a bit today, and allow for some scattered
late afternoon/evening showers and tstm development. (Better
chances across the northern half of the region).

Tuesday, this trof/weakness lifts north. Eyes then turn to the west
again as yet another shortwave trof begins approaching the region.
Guidance is in still in pretty good agreement showing another
complex of storms pushing across southeast Texas late Tuesday night
and Wed. Increased southerly flow in advance will drive PW`s up into
the 1.8-2.1" range. This deeper moisture, along with broad upper
diffluence aloft should set the stage for some healthy tstm activity
and a possibility for regenerating/training cells. Incoming 00z
model deterministic rain totals are generally in the 1-2" range,
though some (UKMET, ICON) are also showing some localized 3-5"
amounts in/near some of our coastal counties which received
elevated totals last week. Too early to pin down the specifics,
but something we`ll be keeping an eye on.

Depending on this systems movement and/or mesoscale factors, we
should see precip tapering off Wed night or Thurs morning. The
remainder of the week looks less eventful as some subtle mid level
ridging builds in. A mix of guidance tries to bring a weak backdoor
front into portions of the region later this weekend. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

VFR conditions begin the TAF period across the forecast area. E/SE
winds around 5-10kts are apparent at nearly all terminals as of 23z.
A few sea breeze induced thunderstorms developed around Jackson
County, though have continued to move westward and little to no
development has been noted closer to TAF sites. Diurnal convection
chances continue to decrease over the next few hours, though a
cluster of thunderstorms may move southward towards Houston County
through 03z. Overnight, MVFR ceilings and visibilities are
increasingly likely at terminals along and north of I-10, including
KIAH. The peak time frame for the MVFR conditions looks to be 10-
13z. A few terminals may briefly hit IFR should fog form, most
likely at KUTS and KCXO. Further south, low-end VFR conditions
should remain throughout the night. VFR conditions return during the
morning to early afternoon hours, and then another round of isolated
to scattered sea breeze convection may impact terminals closer to
the shoreline in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Light to moderate east winds will prevail tonight and Monday,
eventually increasing out of the southeast on Tuesday. There will be
some isolated showers and thunderstorms possible at times. Onshore
winds ramp up Tuesday night ahead of the next disturbance and
associated storms (some possibly strong) that should move into the
waters late Tuesday night and Wednesday. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  87  70  88  72 /  30  30  20  80
Houston (IAH)  89  71  88  75 /  20  20  30  60
Galveston (GLS)  84  77  85  79 /  20  20  30  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...CG
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion