Skip to main content.

National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

Related quick links> 5 Day Forecast, Local Advisories, Drought Monitor, UV Forecast, Air Quality Forecast 
025
FXUS64 KHGX 212246
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
546 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions expected through early next week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible during the second
  half of the week.

- Potential change to a wetter pattern by the end of the month.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

A coastal trough to our south continues to enhance winds and seas
over the Gulf, though not as much as yesterday. LL moisture
associated with the system has increased cloud cover in our
coastal and southern zones, which may keep temperatures a little
cooler this afternoon than we original bargained for in those
areas. But generally speaking, we expect most locations to reach
the lower to mid 80s. We suspect persistent ridging aloft will
keep the weather dry and somewhat warmer than normal through early
next week. Highs are expected to average in the low/mid 80s with
overnight temperatures dropping into the 50s and 60s. One little
wild card will be the strong sfc high that should drift southward
from E Canada into E CONUS. We could get a little backdoor front
that pushes temperatures downward a few degrees on Sunday and
Monday. Also worth mentioning is the low RH values expected
Thursday and Friday. Inland values are expected to bottom out in
the 25-30% range. These values and light winds should technically
keep us out of Red Flag Warning territory. But these very dry
conditions warrant a situational awareness of the somewhat
elevated fire risk, especially north of I-10.

There continues to be long range ensemble and teleconnection
signals of a pattern change around Halloween. These signals are
pretty mixed regarding temperature trends. But the signals are
moderately strong for a switch to a wetter pattern. One of the
signals is the ongoing strong El Nino, which tends to support an
active subtropical jet as we head into the colder months. In fact,
a quick look at WV imagery shows that we already have a pretty
strong subtropical jet that`s pushing deep moisture into SW CONUS.
Long range guidance (ensembles, deterministic, AI, and non-AI)
all suggest a strengthening and potentially amplified subtropical
jet pushing in central CONUS by the end of the month or beginning
of November. The same data is also suggesting above average
rainfall late October - early November. In addition, the MJO is
likely to amplify in phases 2 and 3 in 10-20 days, which
composites show supporting a wet pattern across SW CONUS and TX
(though SE TX is kinda at the eastern edge of the wet anomalies).
The MJO signals a potential cool down during this period. But the
current long range guidance actually skews a little warmer than
normal. ECMWF ensembles (both AI and non- AI) are particularly
impressive regarding moisture, with a strong plurality of members
showing PWATs over 2 inches around the beginning the November.

So how should we interpret this long range data? First, forecast
confidence is always lower in the long range. A lot could change
over the next few days, and nothing is set in stone. But second,
there is an increasing signal for a stormier pattern starting in
about 7-9 days. So I`m comfortable in saying that the odds favor a
switch to a wetter pattern. Third, I`m less confident in
temperatures. The official Climate Prediction Center forecast
during this time frame features a higher chance of above normal
rainfall and above normal temperatures.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 545 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

VFR conditions across the area will continue to prevail for another
TAF cycle. Winds will relax to LGT and VRB for the overnight hrs.
Tomorrow, late-morning winds return to around 5-10kts out of the NE
before, the terminals south of 1-10, shift to ESE in the afternoon.

CMW

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

We continue to experience some enhanced E to ENE winds and
elevated seas today. However, conditions have significantly improved
since yesterday. We expect light to moderate winds averaging from
the east through Friday. By the weekend, a stronger easterly
fetch is expected to develop across the Gulf. Conditions could
reach Small Craft Advisory level by late Saturday or Sunday in the
offshore Gulf. The long fetch could make seas the primary hazard.
Our forecast is showing offshore seas reaching 6 feet late Sunday
into Monday. But considering the potential size of the fetch, the
current forecast may be a bit conservative. We cannot rule out
offshore seas reaching 8 feet. The fetch is expected to taper by
Tuesday, which should bring down seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  57  84  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  59  85  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  70  77  69  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...CMW
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion