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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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679
FXUS64 KHGX 281821
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1221 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of freezing temperatures tonight into Thursday
  morning for portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods
  along with the potential for patchy freezing fog.

- Next cold front pushes through Thursday night, but Arctic air
  really doesn`t filter in until Friday night.

- Hard freezes for parts of the area Friday night & Saturday
  night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1221 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

With surface high pressure overhead today, sunshine will be in
abundance paired with the still below normal temperatures as we top
out in the low to upper 50s this afternoon. It`s still warmer than
it was yesterday though, and that warming trend continues into
Thursday as onshore flow returns. Before we get to that though,
let`s talk about tonight. Temperatures overnight will fall into the
mid 20s to low 30s for portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney
Woods and mid to upper 30s elsewhere. On top of that, model guidance
is in fairly good agreement on patchy to areas of fog across most of
Southeast Texas overnight into Thursday morning...which overlaps
with areas that will see freezing temperatures. As a result,
freezing fog is possible tonight especially for areas north of a
Brenham-Montgomery-Onalaska line. In freezing fog, the droplets can
freeze onto surfaces that are below freezing which can range from
tree branches, metal surfaces, vehicles, and even elevated roadways.
So, in the areas listed above, be sure to use caution on any
elevated roadways tonight into Thursday morning since the formation
of black ice is possible. Our office has not issued a Freezing Fog
Advisory in over 4,400 days (early December 2013), but that may
change tonight.

Surface high pressure kicks out to the east leading to return of
onshore flow by Thursday morning. This brings the peak of our
warming trend as most locations will top out in the low to upper
60s...and can`t entirely rule out a few areas around Matagorda Bay
reaching the 70F mark. While this is occuring, an embedded
shortwave trough passing through the Four Corners region late
Wednesday/early Thursday generates surface low pressure near the
TX/OK panhandles. As the trough continues to slide southeastward, it
will push a cold front through Southeast TX Thursday night. The
front pushes through early enough for portions of the Brazos Valley
and the Piney Woods to see yet another round of freezing
temperatures. Elsewhere, expect lows to range from the mid 30s to
low 40s. A coastal trough develops out ahead of the front, but the
moisture is quickly pushed southward post-FROPA. Our only rain
chances are off the coast on Thursday night/early Friday morning as
a result.

Another round of freezing temperatures is expected in the wake of
this front along with the potential for hard freezes ( 24F) over
the weekend. The coldest of the air pushes in late Friday as a 1040+
mb high slides in from the Central Plains. On Friday night, most of
the area will see freezing temperatures ranging from the mid 20s to
the mid 30s...some portions of the Piney Woods may see a brief hard
freeze. Factoring in the northerly breeze though, it may feel as
cold as the 10s up north and the 20s elsewhere. A Cold Weather
Advisory is certainly in play. High temperatures on Saturday will
only top out in 40s, then we`re onto our coldest night behind this
front. Expecting freezing temperatures across the board with most
locations near or below the hard freeze threshold. Areas closer to
the coast will be more so in the light freeze range with lows likely
in the mid 20s to low 30s. Winds will be lighter, but the air
temperatures make another Cold Weather Advisory likely for Saturday
night as well. Essentially, don`t put away your winter coats or the
insulation for your pipes just yet!

The next warming trend picks up on Sunday as ridging aloft nudges in
from the west as the upper level trough pushes eastward. High
temperatures reach back into the 60s by Monday. Another shortwave
trough pushes through on Tuesday and might generate a coastal trough
bringing a return of rain chances. GFS says yes and the Euro says
no. The next cold front looks to push through around midweek with
chances for showers and storms ahead of and along the frontal
boundary.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 531 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Fog cropping up about the area, but away from most TAF
sites...except SGR and LBX, where dense patches have developed,
and some FZFG potential with temps below freezing. Elsewhere, may
be scraps of fog here and there, but shouldn`t be enough to reduce
flight category.

Once fog dissipates in a couple hours, becomes nothing but VFR
(SKC, maybe a little cirrus) with light/VRB winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1221 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Light winds and low seas will prevail over the next couple of days
with northeasterly winds today becoming southeasterly by Thursday
morning. The main marine impact remains abnormally low water levels.
During times of low tide, water levels are expected to decrease to
around 1 ft below MLLW. Abnormally low water levels are anticipated
to stick around through the end of the work week and continue into
the weekend behind the next cold front.

Rain chances return late Thursday into early Friday as a strong cold
front pushes offshore. Hazardous winds and seas are expected in the
wake of this front, so Small Craft Advisories are likely. Couldn`t
rule out gusts near gale force over the open Gulf Friday into
Saturday. Winds and seas subside late Saturday into Sunday.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  30  63  32  50 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  35  66  37  53 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  48  63  42  54 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ330-335.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion