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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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150
FXUS64 KHGX 050545
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1145 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm weather will continue through this week.
  Overnight lows will be nearer to average highs than to average
  lows.

- Rain chances increase this weekend as a frontal boundary stalls
  near the region.

- Sea fog will remain an intermittent issue near the southern
  Galveston Bay area and adjacent Gulf waters for the next several
  days.

- Another round of storm chances around the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1145 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Let`s go ahead and get the fog talk out of the way...fog began to
push into the southern part of Galveston Bay (and subsequently
Galveston Island) in the late afternoon hours. With this warmer air
continuing to advect over the relatively cooler waters, these
intermittent periods of sea fog will continue. Winds will remain
elevated going into Thursday night and Friday night though, which
could inhibit the extent and intensity of the fog. If fog manages to
develop though, it`ll be the most impactful along the coast/bay
during the overnight to morning hours. With this period of well
above normal temperatures continuing, we`ll likely see water
temperatures gradually rise as well which would be another
inhibiting factor for the fog...and that`s also our segue into the
next forecast topic!

In the City of Houston, we`ve been on active streak of high
temperatures above 80F since February 25th. As of today, March 4th,
that puts this streak at 8 days...and we`ll definitely continue on
this streak going into the weekend. High temperatures on Thursday
will top out in the low to mid 80s, then we`ll add on 1-2F on top
of that for Friday. For low temperatures, expect those to range from
the upper 60s to low 70s going into the weekend. A not so fun fact
is that our LOW temperature on a few nights will be very close (if
not right on the money) to our normal HIGH temperature...yay? The
temperature forecast becomes a bit more complicated over the weekend
as a frontal boundary moves in and stalls out bringing us our best
chances for showers/storms since Valentine`s Day...look at that
we`re 2 for 2 on perfect segues!

Some of us saw some sprinkles, rainfall, and even a few rumbles of
thunder on Wednesday. If you missed out on the rain, then your
chances for getting any rain are very low on Thursday...kinda low on
Friday...and VERY good over the weekend! Let`s start things with
Friday as moisture begins to pool up in Southeast TX with PW values
reaching the 1.4-1.7" range (90th percentile: ~1.39"). The main
source of lift on Friday will be a 35-45 kt LLJ overhead with the
highest winds over the Brazos Valley. There will be a dry line to
our west that may act as an initializer for storms. The 00Z CAMs
that go out this far only reflect some sporadic showers throughout
the day in our area. If a storm manages to get going, then it would
have potential to become strong to severe. SPC has outlined areas
generally north of a Columbus-Tomball-Livingston line in a marginal
risk for severe weather (level 1 of 5).

Going into Friday night, an approaching frontal boundary overtakes
the dry line and this is where the synoptic flow becomes very
important. The northern portion of the upper level trough continues
on a northeastward trajectory towards the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a
cutoff low develops and drifts southwestward towards the Baja
Peninsula where it`ll remain over the weekend (put a pin in this for
now). This leaves the front with not much synoptic forcing to push
it cleanly through. As a result, the front is expected to stall out
somewhere in Southeast TX...model guidance varies on how far
southward the front makes it before it stalls out on Saturday.

Wherever the frontal boundary stalls out at will be the main area of
focus for rainfall over the weekend. With PW values well above the
90th percentile as well, some of this rainfall will be locally heavy
at times which could lead to localized instances of minor flooding.
Chances for heavy rain stick around into Sunday till the frontal
boundary washes out. WPC has portions of Southeast TX outlined in a
marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall for Saturday and
Sunday. Before we revisit the upper level low, let`s briefly talk
about the impacts of the ongoing drought with these rounds of rain
moving in. The new drought monitor comes out on Thursday, so this
data is only current for another 8-12 hours or so. ~82% of Southeast
TX is in a severe to extreme drought and most locations have not
seen any rainfall in over two weeks. The rainfall will certainly be
beneficial, but the soils may be very dry and compacted in some
areas due to drought. This means rainfall can turn into runoff
quicker, and we`re keeping in mind that periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall are expected.

Going into the middle of next week, the aforementioned upper level
low will make its way eastward through the state leading to another
round of showers and storms ahead of and along the associated
frontal boundary. We`ll be monitoring this for any severe potential,
but heavy rain seems to be more of a certainty. Once the upper level
low and the associated front push past us though, model guidance is
trending towards more seasonal temperatures...so we have that to
look forward to! Until then though, high temperatures will be mainly
in the 80s with lows in the 60s/70s.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 549 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Showers (plus one lonely CG strike 15ish SM west of UTS) are
close enough to have a short VCSH mention in the UTS TAF before
rain winds down this evening, but dry everywhere else. Beyond
that, GLS is already at 1/4SM with sea fog, so the TAFs are
largely a slightly faster version of persistence, with conditions
degrading to low MVFR far north to LIFR at the coastal terminals.
Expect gradual return to VFR for the afternoon along with return
of breezy south/southeast winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1145 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Sea fog began to push into the southern portion of Galveston Bay
late Wednesday afternoon. Expecting the fog to drift northward
overnight into Thursday morning leading to the issuance of a Marine
Dense Fog Advisory through Thursday morning. This advisory is
currently only in effect for Galveston Bay and the adjacent
nearshore Gulf waters, but could be expanded westward overnight.
Chances for fog continues over the next couple of days during the
overnight to morning hours. However, elevated winds the next couple
of nights may inhibit the extent of the fog.

Outside of the fog, an elongated fetch of light to moderate
southeasterly winds will continue through the end of the week
leading to gradually increasing seas. Winds may briefly approach the
caution flag threshold at times. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms return over the weekend and around the middle of next
week.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  67  86  69  87 /  10  10  10  20
Houston (IAH)  70  85  70  85 /   0   0   0  20
Galveston (GLS)  68  76  68  76 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Thursday for TXZ214-313-338-
     438-439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Thursday for GMZ335-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion