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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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669
FXUS64 KHGX 261109
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
609 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably hot conditions will continue through the weekend.
  Peak heat index values between 102-107F (39-42C) through Sunday.

- Moderate to high rip current risk today through the weekend.

- Rain chances re-enter the forecast early-mid next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Mid-lvl ridging centered over northern Mexico and West Texas will
shift east and become repositioned over the Lower Mississippi Valley
by this weekend. Although we will see some increase in low-lvl
moisture today with PWATs increasing to around 1.7 inches, this
moisture remains shallow with a prominent dry layer noted between
about 850 and 500mb. Consequently, despite a few CAMs depicting some
streamer showers developing this morning, will leave PoPs at 10
percent or less... and if anything does form it should be transient
and isolated. Otherwise, the continued subsident influence of the
ridge, and associated mid-lvl dry air will keep PoPs suppressed
through early next week. As mentioned in previous discussions a
fairly substantial SAL plume will filter into the area Sunday-
Tuesday, with the main impact being increasingly Hazy skies and
probably some slightly reduced diurnal Cu coverage. Finally heading
into the middle of next week the eastern US ridge will lift slightly
north and increased moisture will filter into the area on its
southern flank, with mentionable rain chances returning to the
forecast on Wednesday.

Temperatures will largely range from the upper 80s near the
immediate coast to the mid 90s inland each day, with potentially
slightly warmer temperatures Sunday-Tuesday as the SAL plume passes
overhead. There will be little overnight relief as MinTs run a few
degrees above climo. Peak WBGT risk will largely be high (red), but
it is possible some warmer locations will reach the Extreme (black)
category early next week. So even though we will likely stay just
below heat advisory criteria, precautions should still be taken to
avoid heat illness, particularly for strenuous activities in direct
sunlight.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Patchy MVFR ceilings are occurring early this morning, mainly
north and west of the Houston airports. These will mix out or lift
to VFR by mid-morning. Another round of MVFR ceilings is possible
during the early morning hours Saturday, again mainly north and
west of Houston. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through
the TAF period. Southerly winds may gust to 20-25 kt at times
late this morning through this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Winds and seas will increase slightly today through the weekend
with moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas generally 3-4 ft.
Rain chances will remain very low through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  94  76  95  77 /  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  93  78  94  78 /  10   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  89  83  89  83 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NC
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...NC

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion