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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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515
FXUS64 KHGX 040004
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
704 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rainfall has been unimpressive up to this point today, but let`s
  keep a close look around the I-10 corridor late in the day and
  evening. Some guidance shows an uptick in storm development and
  localized heavy rain there.

- Continued rain chances Sunday, followed by some drier air moving
  in early next week (moreso inland).

- After a break in the rain, we should see chances ramp back up
  across parts of the region Thur-Sat (probably coastal areas).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Somewhat benign conditions so far today inland, with most precip
offshore in association with coastal troffiness, then another area
across north Tx ahead of the diffuse H85 front. That said, we`re
seeing breaks of sunshine between those 2 areas and temps warming
close to 90F. With any further heating, we could see some
shra/tstm development initiating inland later this afternoon. HRRR
has done a reasonable job so far today, and it`s been showing the
area between the I-10 and HWY 105 corridors lighting up later
today. Guidance has also shown signals indicating the potential
for some *localized* 2-5" totals into late evening which could
bring a street flooding threat if this occurs over a more metro
location. Let`s keep an eye on things. Otherwise, some iso-sct
shra continuing overnight into Sunday, more widespread offshore.

Surface high pressure begins sinking sewd thru the Plains into
the Ohio/Tennessee/Mississippi Valleys early next week. This
should drive some drier air into the region, especially inland
parts, and push the surface front further offshore. This`ll give
most of the area lower rain chances into midweek. But, as the high
lifts back to the northeast, we`ll see the coastal trof and
associated deeper moisture become re-established closer to the
coast. A mid-level trof/low becomes established across northern
Mexico and West Texas, and disturbances rotating around it should
contribute to rain chances trending back up Thur-Sat until it
tracks to the east late next weekend. There`s not the best of
model agreement in terms of the finer details (positioning/timing/etc),
so would anticipate so forecast tweaks in the coming days.  47

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 703 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

A trough in the Gulf and a slow southward moving front continue to
bring sub-VFR conditions through this TAF cycle. Model confidence
has increased for isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms
tonight, prompting TEMPOs from 00 to 04Z/05Z for CXO and all TAF
sites south of it. Any showers/thunderstorms that form over
terminals are capable of bringing sub-VFR cigs/vis and gusty winds.
By 04Z, MVFR cigs arrive for most TAF sites with a drop to IFR cigs
by 07 to 09Z. Currently, we anticipate cigs/vis to improve starting
around 16Z with VFR returning by 20Z, but there are models which
keep IFR cigs deep into the afternoon. For now, we wrote in a SCT008
with an MVFR OVC deck at 16Z to hint at the potential of those IFR
cigs sticking around. Winds during this period will generally be out
of the NNE/NE at 8-12 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Winds/seas (15-25kt & 5-7ft) have been overperforming and will
maintain the advisory flags through the evening and monitor
trends. Suspect these might need to be extended into mid morning
Sunday - or replaced with Caution flags at a minimum. Scattered
to occasionally numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
through the weekend, with locally heavier thunderstorms possible.
Moderate northeast winds will prevail along with 4 to 7 foot
seas. Winds/seas are expected to increase further early next
week as the front pushes further offshore. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  69  81  67  85 /  40  30  20  10
Houston (IAH)  73  82  72  87 /  60  30  20  20
Galveston (GLS)  77  84  77  86 /  80  70  60  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Monday afternoon for
     GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ350-355-370-
     375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion