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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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759
FXUS64 KHGX 042352
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
552 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Abnormally low water levels during low tide in Galveston Bay
  will continue through Monday night with levels moderating closer
  to normal by mid-week. Continued low water is likely due to the
  very low astronomical tides occurring.

- Patchy to areas of fog possible nightly beginning tonight through
  midweek.

- Warming trend begins on Monday with temperatures back into the
  80s by midweek. Cold front on Friday ushers in cooler weather
  next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Sorry, cold weather fans...warm weather fans rejoice because
another warming trend kicks off the week as southeasterly winds
return. Winds will have a southerly component through the majority
of the week, bringing in warm moist air and sending temperatures
into the upper 70s to low 80s through Thursday.

An upper level low will approach the area late in the week, with a
cold front swinging through sometime late Thursday into Friday.
Ensembles have a bit of a variance between how much moisture will
be available ahead of the front. ECMWF has PWAT values around
average for this time of year, while NAEFS has PWAT values in the
90th percentile. In either case, this could be the next shot at
rain for Southeast Texas. As far as convection is concerned,
models don`t seem too excited for that potential with a pretty
hefty cap in place as the front rolls through. Behind the front,
northerly winds will develop and bring in another round of cold
air for the region. This will, of course, result in a drop in
daytime/nighttime temperatures. While I don`t want to get too hung
up on exact details this far out, it doesn`t look like too drastic
of a drop in temperatures. In fact, at this point in time the cool
air behind the front will drop temperatures to around average for
this time of year.

Bailey

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 538 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

VFR conditions and SE winds at 5-10 KTS through early tonight.
Winds will relax to 5 KTS or less overnight and cigs will lower
down to IFR-MVFR. Vis could also lower to similar minimums over
most sites as fog develops over the region. By around 15Z, winds
will increase to 5-10 KTS, fog will gradually burn off, and cigs
will lift and scatter out during the afternoon to evening hours.
Similar conditions are expected Mon night into early Tue morning.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 120 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Southeasterly winds have developed this afternoon. Light onshore
winds and low seas will then prevail through at least midweek. The
onshore winds will bring a chance of patchy sea fog nightly
beginning Sunday night. The chance of fog midweek will be
conditional as warming SSTs should limit the fog potential.

Abnormally low water levels during low tide will continue on
Monday with water levels getting down to around -1.0ft MLLW at
low tide in Galveston Bay. Low tides will continue to remain on
the lower side going into the work week, but will be less
significant thanks to decreasing astronomical tides and onshore
winds (-0.8ft MLLW on Monday, -0.5ft MLLW on Tuesday, near 0.0ft
MLLw on Wednesday, etc.).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  48  75  63  82 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  51  76  63  82 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  57  70  63  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Low Water Advisory until midnight CST Monday night for GMZ335.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...Bailey

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion