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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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309
FXUS64 KHGX 132256
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
556 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warm conditions will persist with highs in the upper 80s to
  low 90s into the weekend. Thursday is expected to be the
  hottest day of the week.

- Patchy fog late tonight through early Thursday morning.

- Persistent southeasterly flow will lead to a steady climb in
  humidity, potentially triggering spotty/isolated, diurnally-
  driven showers/storms throughout the weekend. Best rain and
  storm chances arrive early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Latest visible satellite imagery shows a generally tranquil day
across TX, with only a few mid to high clouds. With the ridge
building overhead, afternoon temperatures will be slightly warmer
than yesterday. Light winds will prevail, though a stronger gusts
from the southeast will be possible during the seabreeze late this
afternoon. As the surface high shifts eastward, winds will become
dominantly southeasterly, leading to a gradual increase in Gulf
moisture. Therefore, cannot rule out patchy to areas of fog
late tonight/early Thursday morning, particularly south of I-10.

An even hotter day is anticipated on Thursday as the mid to upper-
lvl ridge axis moves overhead. Highs in the low 90s are likely for
most of southeast TX. Persistent southerly surface flow will
transport more moisture inland. In fact, PWs will increase to the
1.1 to 1.4 inch range through the weekend. Consequently, warm (or
hot) days will continue, accompanied by a gradual increase in
humidity levels.

The mid to upper lvl pattern begins to change Friday and into the
weekend as the ridge breaks down, allowing for the passage of a few
disturbances/shortwaves near the region. A tightening pressure
gradient associated with lee cyclogenesis over west Tx/southern
Rockies will lead to moderate southerly winds Friday into the
weekend. This pattern will persist through the weekend, thus
isolated diurnally-driven showers and storms cannot be ruled out,
especially on Sunday. Beyond Monday, the pattern aloft remains
unsettled with multiple disturbances riding along the flow. The next
best rain and storm chances could potentially be early next week as
a frontal boundary attempts to move through.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 553 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Look for some late night and early morning fog development, moreso
south of I-10 and also CXO. Last night vsbys briefly fell to
around 1 mile at some spots and don`t see any reason to expect
anything different tonight. Any fog will quickly burn off after
sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 122 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Light and variable winds and low seas will continue this afternoon
and tonight. Surface high pressure will gradually shifts to our east
tonight into Thursday, eventually bringing onshore winds across the
Upper TX coast. Moderate onshore winds can be expected in the
afternoon/early evening driven by the seabreeze, followed by
offshore winds early in the morning from the landbreeze. A tighter
pressure gradient across the Plains will result in elevated winds
(15 to 20+ knots) and building seas after Friday. Rain chances
remain minimal this week with the next best chance returning early
next week.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  66  90  68  89 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  70  92  71  89 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  73  84  76  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...47
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion