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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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788
FXUS64 KHGX 302312
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
512 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 340 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

A significant lack of surface-based instability and low low-level
lapse rates has greatly inhibited the development of thunderstorms
this afternoon as a cold front continues to push through the area.
Still, widely available low-level moisture and elevated bulk
shear (~50kt) may yet prove favorable for a few rumbles of thunder
before the end of the afternoon. Otherwise, scattered showers
should continue to clear the area from NW to SE as we head into
the early evening, with the boundary expected to clear the coast
in the next few hours. Cold advection behind the front will
initially be weak, but sufficient enough (along with radiative
cooling) to drop overnight lows tonight into the upper 40s/lower
50s. The arrival of drier air will also put an end to the fog
threat for the time being.

A reinforcing front will arrive early on Friday, shifting surface
winds further to the NW and increasing sustained speeds to near 15
mph. Friday`s weather will otherwise be unremarkable with highs in
the 60s and overnight lows generally in the 40s. Winds will
gradually diminish over the course of the day, eventually becoming
light or calm overnight.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

In the wake of the cold front, surface high pressure will build into
the region. High temperatures on Saturday will reach the mid 60s to
low 70s. A benign weather pattern will remain in place through the
middle of next week with zonal flow aloft. We will see a gradual
warmup with above normal temperatures beginning on Sunday where
highs will reach the mid/upper 70s inland. Onshore flow will quickly
return this weekend which will also allow moisture levels to rise
through the period. Although moisture levels rise, no significant
chances of rain due to high pressure dominating the forecast. This
is a weather pattern that will support sea/coastal fog during the
overnight and morning hours beginning Sunday night and continuing
through mid week. Afternoon max temps will be around 80 inland Mon
through Wed.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 455 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

The unsettled weather brought by the passing cold front will be
coming to an end shortly with just some scattered light rain
showers impacting GLS through around 1z. VFR conditions have
arrived at all sites but LBX and GLS with some lingering SCT low
level clouds and BKN mid level cloud. LBX will likely be joining
in on the VFR conditions by 1-2z. Lingering low level moisture may
lead to lingering MVFR conditions at GLS through this evening with
CIGs around 1500ft and patchy fog, but will be solidly VFR by dawn
on Friday. Winds have shifted to the northwest following the
passage of the front and will persist in this direction through
Friday. Wind speeds will be around 7-10kt through this evening,
lowering over night to 3-5kt, but then rising to around 8-12kt
with gusts to 20kt late Friday morning that continues through the
afternoon.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

The cold front will push off the coast late aft/early eve and end
the nearshore/bay fog. Moderate offshore winds and elevated seas
well offshore will continue with Small Craft Advisories in effect.
With colder water nearshore, wind speeds will be less so maintained
the caution flags there. Showers and a few thunderstorms are
possible ahead of and near the front. Mariners should look for a
wind shift around 3pm in the Matagorda area and around sunset in the
Galveston area. The offshore winds will weaken late tonight, but
pick back up mid-day Friday when a secondary front moves
through and the surface pressure gradient tightens.

Onshore winds resume during the day on Saturday. The threat of sea
fog formation gradually increases beginning on Sunday night...and it
is likely that we will see a long duration fog event for a good part
of next week. With the warm afternoon temperatures, there will be a
few hours each afternoon and early in the evening that we should see
a break in the fog coverage over the bays, but likely to see areas
of fog overnight and through the morning hours across the bays and
the nearshore waters.

Wood

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  46  68  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  51  68  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  54  63  50  60 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ335-350-
     355.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 3 AM CST Friday for
     GMZ350-355.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Friday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Wood
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Wood

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion