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195
FXUS64 KHGX 041143
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
543 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances return tonight due to another coastal low and
  incoming cold front with the greatest coverage of the showers
  and isolated thunderstorms likely remaining along the coast.

- Additional passing disturbances will provide intermittent
  periods of rain behind the front through Friday.

- Drier weather anticipated this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1107 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

A surge of moisture and a weak coastal trough will bring continued
widespread light showers with isolated moderate to heavy rainfall
through daybreak. On average, up to 0.5-1" of rain is expected
across the area, but there will be pockets of 2-3" of rain where
those heavier showers develop (likely remaining south of I-10, and
east of I-45). Scattered light rainfall will continue into the
morning hours, then a weak cold front will slide through the area
bringing a brief reprieve from the rain chances. Lingering
moisture and passing upper-level shortwaves will lead to scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms along the coast Friday morning
into Friday night. At this point, thinking no showers make their
way much further north than I-10 with the highest coverage likely
remaining off the coast. High pressure builds in over Texas over
the weekend and into at least the first half of next week leading
to dry weather for SE Texas.

Low temperatures through daybreak will be in the mid to upper 50s
along and south of I-10 with mid 40s to low 50s expected to the
north. Mostly cloudy skies and the passing cold front will lead to
a chilly day on Thursday with highs only climbing into the mid 50s
to mid 60s across the area. These chillier temperatures will
continue into Friday with a northerly wind bringing ushering in
these cooler temperatures. The high pressure and mostly clear
skies will lead to warmer temperatures returning for the weekend
with highs in the mid to upper 60s on Saturday, and then some low
70s returning south of I-10 on Sunday. A reinforcing, dry cold
front slides through the area Sunday night ushering cooler
temperatures to start the work week.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 539 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Widely scattered SHRA, areas of drizzle, and low cigs expected
today. Drizzle, patchy fog, and low clouds will also result in
reduced visibility. LIFR/IFR conditions expected to continue
through the TAF period. Winds will increase from the north today,
particularly near the coast where winds could gust 25-30 knots
this afternoon and evening. By tomorrow morning, another round of
scattered SHRA is expected to develop, with the best chance of
morning rain being in our southern and coastal zones.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1107 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
through daybreak as a weak coastal low slides through the area.
Patchy fog will also continue to be possible through the early
morning hours, especially in the southern waters off of Matagorda
where rain coverage will be less. Isolated to scattered showers
will persist through the morning hours ahead of an approaching
cold front, which will move through the coastal waters in the
early afternoon. Moderate to strong northerly winds will develop
behind the cold front of around 20kt with gusts to 25kt, so a
Small Craft Advisory has been issued Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night. These strong offshore winds plus already low
astronomical tides will lead to lower than normal water levels in
the Bays during low tide Friday morning, down to around 0.5ft
below MLLW. Winds lower through the Thursday night with light to
occasionally moderate northeasterly winds persisting through
Saturday. Lingering moisture and passing upper- level disturbance
will bring continued chances of scattered showers Friday into
Saturday.

Drier conditions return by Sunday, but a reinforcing cold front is
expected to move through the coastal waters Sunday night bringing
a brief period of moderate to strong northerly winds that
persists into Monday morning.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  52  41  51  44 /  70  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)  57  44  55  49 /  80  20  40  20
Galveston (GLS)  65  49  59  54 /  90  30  50  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ330-
     350.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight CST
     tonight for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 AM CST early this
     morning for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Fowler

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion