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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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636
FXUS64 KHGX 230006
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
706 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat continues through this evening with dangerously
  heat indices across all of southeast Texas. An Extreme Heat
  Warning remains in effect through 8 PM.

- Scattered showers and storms are possible late this afternoon
  and early evening. Some storms may become strong to severe,
  capable of producing strong gusty winds, heavy downpours and
  frequent lightning.

- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Upper Texas coast
  and adjacent waters through early Friday. Tropical Storm Bertha
  is forecast to weaken as it approaches southeast Texas Thursday
  afternoon into Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Dangerous heat, a few strong storms and the potential impacts of
Tropical Storm (TS) Bertha are the main weather concerns across
Southeast Texas.

Hot and humid conditions will continue across the region this
afternoon due to the influence of a building high pressure to our
west and TS Bertha over the north-central Gulf. Forecast soundings
continue to indicate afternoon highs in the upper 90s to low 100s
across all of Southeast TX today. Not only that, but increasing
moisture due to the proximity of Bertha will also contribute to
dangerous heat indices of 108 to 115 F through early this evening.
An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for all of Southeast Texas
through 8 PM this evening.

We will continue to monitor the potential for isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. A band of
storms associated with the northwestern fringe of TS Bertha could
potentially reach our region. Dry air aloft, combined with hot
conditions will result in deep boundary layer mixing over the next
few hours. In fact, soundings also suggest decent steep lapse rates
through the evening, with DCAPE running into the 1000-1200 J/kg
range. With that being said, a few downbursts capable of producing
strong gusty winds and brief heavy downpours cannot be ruled out
through late this evening. SPC has placed a Marginal Risk (level 1
of 5) of severe weather for most of SE TX today.

The next concern is the potential impacts of the weakening TS Bertha
Thursday into early Friday. As of early this afternoon, the center
of Bertha made landfall in St Bernard Parish, Louisiana. Bertha
is moving west-northwest around 7 mph. Latest data indicate that
Bertha is gradually weakening, with maximum sustained winds
remaining near 45 mph with higher gusts. As Bertha moves westward
into the southeastern coast of Louisiana/northwestern Gulf today
and Thursday, atmospheric conditions will continue to be
unfavorable for future strengthening as the storm encounters
strong wind shear, increasing subsidence from high pressure to our
west, and deals with land interaction along the central Gulf
Coast. Therefore, Bertha is expected to weaken and become more
disorganized as it approaches our region. The current forecast has
Bertha approaching late Thursday morning or early afternoon as a
weak Tropical Storm, before becoming a Tropical Depression once it
makes landfall.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Bolivar Peninsula,
Brazoria Islands, Chambers, Coastal Brazoria, Coastal Galveston, and
Galveston Island, as well as the coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport from 0 to 60 NM.

Regarding potential impacts for Southeast Texas, Tropical Storm-
force wind gusts can be expected under the Watch area with gusts up
to 40 to 45 mph. Highest probabilities are expected along the
immediate coast and coastal waters from High Island to Freeport.
Elsewhere in Southeast TX, little to no impact is anticipated.
Periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms can also be expected
through the day; however, the threat of flooding rain is low. For
marine and beach conditions: elevated winds and building seas up to
7 - 8 ft can be expected. Tropical storm-force winds up to 40 knots
are possible offshore as early as this evening through early Friday.
There will also be a high risk of rip currents along all Gulf-facing
beaches. Significant coastal flooding is not expected at this time,
but minor coastal flooding and wave run-up at the beach are
possible, especially during times of high tide. Higher probabilities
are north of Port Bolivar. Please, remain weather aware and
prepared, especially if you are under the Watch area. Continue to
monitor the latest forecast for any updates on Bertha at
www.hurricanes.gov and weather.gov/houston.

Friday through early next week... Depending on the eventual track
and intensity of TS Bertha, a few showers/storms will be possible on
Friday. Otherwise, hot weather continues as the mid to upper level
ridge strengthens over the central CONUS through the weekend. Heat
headlines will likely be issued late this weekend into early next
week as temperatures rise into upper 90s to low 100s, with peak
heat indices up to 110F.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

We will continue to see showers and storms moving across SE TX
from NE to SW and will mostly affect IAH, HOU, SGR, GLS, and LBX
through around 02-03Z. Expect MVFR vis/cigs along with VRB winds
around 10-15KTS with gusts of around 20-25KTS with these storms.
Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected later tonight through
early Thu morning with light VRB winds.

After 15Z Thu, winds turn more NE and increase as TS Bertha
approaches Galveston Bay region. Winds will continue to increase
throughout the afternoon and evening as Bertha then moves W-NW
across our region. Winds are expected to be strongest along and
near the coast and some areas near and east of I-45. MVFR to VFR
cigs is expected, in particular the afternoon to evening hours.
We can also expect iso-sct showers and thunderstorms associated
to Bertha`s rainbands throughout the day. Have placed PROB30s for
this TAF issuance to reflect the stronger winds and chance for
showers and thunderstorms and may possibly be upgraded to a TEMPO
once additional Hi-Res data becomes available. TS Bertha is
expected to exit the Brazos Valley region Thu night.

Note: Conditions with TS Bertha could change within the next
24-48 hrs, please continue to monitor the latest forecast for TS
Bertha.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the coastal waters
from High Island to Freeport from 0 to 60 NM, including Galveston
Bay through early Friday...

Light to moderate west to southwest winds and seas around 2 to 4 ft
will prevail through at least early Thursday. Elevated winds and
building seas can be expected as early as Thursday morning as
Tropical Storm Bertha moves over coastal waters/Upper Texas coast
during the day. Bertha will be moving across the coastal waters as a
weak Tropical Storm, bringing tropical storm-force wind gusts around
30 to 40 knots, with the highest probabilities offshore. Bertha is
expected to become a Tropical Depression once it makes landfall in
the late morning or early afternoon. Potential marine impacts
include elevated winds, and building seas of 6 to 8 ft (occasionally
higher seas possible). Beach conditions are expected to deteriorate
later tonight into at least Friday. A high rip current risk is
expected along all Gulf-facing beaches. While significant coastal
flooding is not anticipated, minor coastal flooding and wave run-up
at the beach are possible, especially during times of high tide. The
highest probabilities of these conditions are expected to be north
of Port Bolivar.

Please, continue to monitor the latest forecast updates and be
prepared.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  81  96  78  94 /  20   0  20  10
Houston (IAH)  83  95  80  94 /  30  40  50  20
Galveston (GLS)  84  91  83  90 /  50  70  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Watch for TXZ214-337-338-437>439.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-
     176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
     436>439.

     Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday morning through Friday
     morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ335-355-375.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Friday for GMZ350-370.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion