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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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390
FXUS64 KHGX 080647
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1247 AM CST Sun Mar 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A stalled cold front near the coast will continue isolated to
  scattered shower and thunderstorm activity through Sunday
  morning, but coverage/intensity will be less than Saturday`s
  storms.

- Sea fog will remain an intermittent issue near the southern Galveston
  Bay area and adjacent Gulf waters for the next several days.

- Another round of strong storms possible Tuesday night into
  Wednesday as a cold front pushes through the area.

- A return to more seasonal temperatures for the second half of
  the week following the cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1134 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

A slow moving cold front brought widespread 0.5 to 1.5" of rain
for areas along and north of I-10 yesterday with the areas near
the City of Houston receiving 3-5" of rain (as per KHGX storm
total accumulations). Areas south of I-10 received mostly just up
to 0.2", but a training line of storms near Alvin up through
Wallisville did produce a swath of around 1.5-3". The cold front
will be stalling near the coast through Sunday morning, continuing
the potential for scattered shower and thunderstorms. Expecting
mostly a lull in the activity during the overnight hours, but
then increasing coverage by daybreak that persists into the
afternoon. The front is expected to retreat northwards Sunday
evening into Sunday night returning increased humidity and
southerly winds across SE Texas. A weak shortwave passing overhead
may trigger some additional showers and thunderstorms on Monday,
but our main focus for this week will be the expected strong cold
front that will push through the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday. There will be nightly patchy, dense fog along the coast
until the cold front pushes through.

This front will be associated with a large upper-level low that
will be sliding through Baja California Monday into Tuesday
morning, then through the Southern Plains Tuesday night into
Wednesday. There is still some uncertainty on the exact timing of
this FROPA in SE Texas as it could be as early as Tuesday night or
as late as Wednesday afternoon. With a strong temperature gradient
across the cold front, a strong high pressure building in behind
the system, and a progressive upper-level pattern, I am thinking a
FROPA on the earlier side of the that range will be most likely
(Tuesday night). We are monitoring for the potential of strong to
severe storms developing ahead of and along the cold front, with
SPC having a 15% chance of severe storms just to our north - which
is equivalent to a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5). Gusty northerly
winds are expected behind the front Wednesday afternoon into
Thursday morning, especially along the coast. But, then the rest
of the week will be rather pleasant with high pressure overhead.

Temperatures today will largely be determined by where exact the
boundary ends up stalling, and how quickly it retreats back north.
As of now, looking like high temperatures in the low to mid 70s
across the area with the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods near 70. A
return to highs in the low to mid 80s are expected Monday and
Tuesday as southerly flow returns and WAA increasing ahead of the
approaching cold front. Wednesday will be a day of transition with
temperatures largely dependent on the speed of the FROPA: could be
in the mid-80s with a slow cold front, or down into the mid-70s
with a faster cold front. A return to near seasonal temperatures
are expected Thursday and Friday with highs in the upper 60s to
mid-70s.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 539 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

A slow moving cold front is in the process of pushing through the
Houston area towards the coast. Model guidance is divided on how
conditions will evolve tonight. The broader picture suggests that
the front should stall in the vicinity of KHOU/GLS with activity
waning to mostly light showers for some period overnight. CIGs
should also deteriorate overnight to MVFR/IFR levels and LIFR
near the coast. LAMP guidance continues to suggest another period
of sea fog in the mist of all this, and given how yesterday
unfolded there is a good shot we see visibility drop to 1SM or
less for periods of the night ad KGLS. Model guidance also shows
another uptick in showers and thunderstorms during the early
morning hours of Sunday south of I-10 around where the front
should be in some models, thus decided to maintain some of those
PROB30 groups for thunder. Rain chances decrease and CIGs improve
Sunday afternoon.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1134 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible
through Sunday afternoon as a stalled boundary lingers near the
coast before retreating back north Sunday night. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms, potentially strong, is expected
Tuesday night into Wednesday as a strong cold front pushes through
the region.

Before this front, expect onshore winds around 10-15kt with seas
around 2-4ft. There will also be continued nightly chances of
patchy, dense fog lingering in the southern portions of Galveston
Bay and the nearshore waters. After the frontal passage midweek,
expect strong offshore winds (with gusts to 30-35kt) to develop
with building seas Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This
front will bring drier air over the coastal waters, bringing a
break to the nightly sea fog. However, onshore flow returns by
next weekend, so will need to monitor if fog returns then.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  56  69  61  83 /  60  20  10  30
Houston (IAH)  66  74  69  83 /  80  40  10  40
Galveston (GLS)  67  71  68  75 /  50  50  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ335-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Fowler

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion