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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

652
FXUS64 KHGX 180509
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1209 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot weather is on tap this weekend and next week.

- Highs in the mid 90s this weekend, and mid and upper 90s for some
  parts of the region next week. Heat index values in the triple
  digits.

- Cannot rule out a very short lived shower or thunderstorm late
  in the day, but chances for the vast majority of the region
  should be less than 10% through at least midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Building high pressure will dominate area wx this weekend and next
week. Daytime highs will climb from the mid 90s this weekend into
the 95-100F range for parts of the region next week. Column of dry
air in place should allow dewpoints to mostly mix out in the
afternoons thru Monday and keep heat index values mostly in check.
PW`s are forecast to climb back into the 1.5-2.0" range during the
second half of the work week...along with potential strengthening
mid level ridging sinking in from the north - so no promises then.
That said, it`s gonna be hot regardless.

In terms of rain chances: most of us won`t see any for the next week
or so. One exception could be a short-lived, rouge storm or two
between 4-8pm today near or just north of the metro area as some of
the HREF members are suggesting.

NHC is keeping tabs on some unsettled wx across the eastern Gulf.
This is associated with a mid level trof stuck between stronger
ridging to its east and west. It`ll probably meander in that
general region into early next week. There are a subset of various
ensemble and AI guidance members that try to eventually show some
gradual llvl/sfc organization. With a ridge fcst to further build
into the region from the north, concern level for local impacts
is fairly low...but it`s that time of year to keep an eye on
things and see how the pattern evolves with time. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

A short-lived isolated shra/tstm can`t totally be ruled out in
the next hour or two between IAH-CXO, but the vast majority of the
region should remain precip free overnight and on Saturday.
Though we could see some intermittent late night and early
morning MVFR ceilings at times (mainly north of the metro
area)...VFR conditions should mainly prevail with light southerly
winds. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Favorable marine conditions are anticipated into midweek. Southerly
winds 10 to 15 knots and 2-3 foot seas will prevail today. As
surface high pressure moves into the northwest Gulf Sunday and early
next week we should see slightly lighter south-southwest winds and
seas further subsiding. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  94  75  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  95  76  96  76 /  10  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  91  82  91  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...47
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion