Storm Prediction Center - Current Convective Watches
SPC Jan 6, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025
Valid 062000Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, one or two of which may be strong to potentially
severe, will be possible across parts of western Florida through the
remainder of this afternoon and early this evening.
...20z Update...
Afternoon visible imagery shows the cold front has gradually moved
east/southeast through the remainder of south GA and the FL
Panhandle. Behind the front, the intruding arctic air mass will
scour remaining instability and moisture, ending the thunderstorm
risk across much of the Southeast. The Thunder and Marginal Risk
areas have been removed behind the front.
Across the remainder of the western FL Peninsula, weak inland
advection of mid 60s F surface dewpoints and filtered solar heating
are supporting modest buoyancy (~ 500 J/kg of MLCAPE) despite poor
mid-level lapse rates of 6 C/km. Shallow convection over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico may move inland and pose some risk for an occasional
damaging gust or brief tornado, given moderate mid and low-level
shear. However, confidence in sustained strong to severe storms is
low, as large-scale forcing is expected to weaken and scant buoyancy
will confined near the coast. Will maintain the low-end risk for
damaging winds and a brief tornado into the early evening. The
severe risk should rapidly end later tonight as the cold front moves
inland.
..Lyons.. 01/06/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025/
...GA/FL vicinity...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave
trough over the OH Valley embedded within larger-scale troughing
over the East. A 100-kt 500 mb speed max over AL will quickly move
east of the Carolina coast by early evening with strong westerly
flow over FL. In the low levels, a cold front will continue to
sweep southeast across the Big Bend of FL through the early
afternoon. Low-level moistening and diurnal heating ahead of the
front will contribute to scant buoyancy, despite initially poor
lapse rates over the region per 12z raob data. A couple of stronger
updrafts or small banded segments of convection may yield a
localized risk for a damaging gust or two this afternoon. The
enlarged hodographs in the lowest 1-2 km and moistening boundary
layer could facilitate weak rotation in the strongest cells. Only
isolated to widely scattered convective coverage (mostly not
yielding lightning flashes) is expected and this activity will push
east/southeast during the day. Model guidance shows convection
associated with the front moving through the Tampa Bay area late
this afternoon into the early evening, with perhaps a lingering
strong-storm risk before nocturnal stabilization and frontal
passage.
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SPC Jan 6, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Very isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
Trans-Pecos to central Texas on Wednesday night.
...TX...
An initially closed mid/upper low should gradually evolve back into
an open, positive-tilt trough by early Thursday as it slowly slides
across the southern Gulf of CA and northwest Mexico. Warm-moist
advection at 700 mb should yield scant buoyancy with mixed-phase
states in elevated parcels amid steep mid-level lapse rates. Most of
this may be atop a sub-freezing surface layer, yielding scattered
elevated convection producing mixed precip. While most guidance
indicates thunder potential is minimal, the synoptic pattern in
conjunction with 12Z NAM soundings suggest thunder probabilities are
around 10 percent. This appears to be centered from the Trans-Pecos
across the Edwards Plateau to central TX on Wednesday night.
..Grams.. 01/06/2025
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